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Speaker 1: Good morning everybody, and welcome to the daily ours. It's

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Speaker 1: the thirtieth of March. It's the morning after budget. I

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Speaker 1: know that you all didn't sleep last night because you

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Speaker 1: were that excited. So if you were holding on to

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Speaker 1: hear what Tom and Billy had to say about what

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Speaker 1: was in last night's budget, you've come to the right

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Speaker 1: place because they are in our deep dive today chatting

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Speaker 1: through what Josh Fredenberg and the federal government had to

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Speaker 1: say yesterday. But first Sam take us through the news

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Speaker 1: of the day.

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Speaker 2: So the non budget news was that New South Wales

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Speaker 2: SES officials told residents and business owners across some parts

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Speaker 2: of Lismore, including the CBD, that it was safe to

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Speaker 2: return to their properties yesterday afternoon. Some evacuation orders remained

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Speaker 2: in place for other parts of Lismore last night. This

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Speaker 2: is the second flooding event in less than a month.

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Speaker 1: Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and other participants in peace talks

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Speaker 1: between Russia and Ukraine may have been poisoned earlier this month.

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Speaker 1: The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Abramovich and two

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Speaker 1: other negotiators had developed symptoms of suspected poisoning after a

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Speaker 1: March three meeting, but that all had recovered.

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Speaker 2: A US judge has ruled that former President Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: quote more likely than not, committed a felony in his

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Speaker 2: efforts to overturn the twenty twenty election results. The judge

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Speaker 2: ordered Trump's lawyer to turn over emails to the select

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Speaker 2: committee investigating the sixth of January capital attack.

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Speaker 1: We've got some killer good news for you today. The

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Speaker 1: crucifix frog, which is a frog that spends most of

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Speaker 1: its life borrowing three meters underground because the top soil

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Speaker 1: is not wet enough, has re emerged in Queensland. According

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Speaker 1: to the local Kuma people, the frog's return is a

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Speaker 1: sign of good land management and a healthy environment.

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Speaker 3: TDA journalist Tom Crowley here, and I'm sitting at ten

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Speaker 3: thirty pm in Canberra with TDA editor Billy Fitzsimon's and Bill.

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Speaker 3: We have had a hell of a day, to say

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Speaker 3: the least, it's been exhausting. I feel like we should

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Speaker 3: set the scene a little bit. So we set off

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Speaker 3: from Sydney to Canberra in the early hours this morning

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Speaker 3: and we were at Parliament House to go into budget

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Speaker 3: lock up and we've spent six hours locked in a

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Speaker 3: room under kind of very heavy guard with a bunch

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Speaker 3: of very stern but very friendly public servants making sure

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Speaker 3: that we didn't bring any phones in or leak anything

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Speaker 3: out of the budget. We had six hours to pour

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Speaker 3: over the budget and get everything ready to be published

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Speaker 3: on the TDA page. What will be last night by

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Speaker 3: the time you heard this podcast Billy Reflections. It's been

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Speaker 3: an exhausting day. I'm not sure I've ever been so

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Speaker 3: tired in my life. It's been a fun day. What

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Speaker 3: did you make of it all?

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Speaker 4: Yes, it's absolutely been such a big day. I think

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Speaker 4: it's really interesting, especially for people who aren't journalists, to

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Speaker 4: learn that journalists are locked in a room for about

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Speaker 4: six hours, like you said, Tom, to get it's about

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Speaker 4: like four hundred pages. I'd say it's a lot of pages,

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Speaker 4: so many pages, and we have six hours to not

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Speaker 4: just read all of these pages, but also try to

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Speaker 4: understand them and try to analyze exactly what's happening here,

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Speaker 4: what is in the budget, what's not in the budget.

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Speaker 4: So it's been really interesting and I think that there's

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Speaker 4: a lot to get through. Should we start with the

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Speaker 4: cost of living? I think that was probably one of

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Speaker 4: the biggest headlines that came out of the budget last

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Speaker 4: night is cost of living. We all know that the

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Speaker 4: cost of living has gone up. We see this particularly

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Speaker 4: at the petrol pump. Tom, What did the federal government

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Speaker 4: say about the cost of living in the budget?

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Speaker 3: Thanks, Billy, So I think it is a good place

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Speaker 3: to start, and it's also probably worth saying if the

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Speaker 3: outset this is a very short podcast. There's no way

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Speaker 3: that we'll have time to get through everything that was

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Speaker 3: in the budget. But I agree with your assessment that

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Speaker 3: that's one of the big stories, and it's the kind

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Speaker 3: of thing that the government was talking up in the

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Speaker 3: week and the lead up to the budget. They were

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Speaker 3: promising to do something about the cost of living. I

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Speaker 3: think probably the key word is temporary, and the word

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Speaker 3: that the government was using a lot was targeted, and

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Speaker 3: they were very keen to I suppose emphasized that although

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Speaker 3: they wanted to provide support for the cost of living,

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Speaker 3: that at the same time that they didn't want to

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Speaker 3: kind of introduce permanent supports and they didn't want to

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Speaker 3: kind of introduce a whole lot of new spending. And

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Speaker 3: so the key word there that they were aiming for

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Speaker 3: was temporary. There were three key measures along the lines

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Speaker 3: of cost of living. The first one, which we've been

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Speaker 3: talking about and predicting for a little while, was this

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Speaker 3: cut to the fuel excise, So the fuel excise will

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Speaker 3: be halved from about an hour and a half after

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Speaker 3: we finished recording this, it'll be halved. So by the

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Speaker 3: time that you're listening to this podcast, if you head

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Speaker 3: out to the petrol pump, I don't know whether it

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Speaker 3: will already flow through straight away, but the fuel excise

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Speaker 3: will certainly be cheaper, and it should be in the

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Speaker 3: order of about twenty four cents per liter. But it's

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Speaker 3: only for six months, and after six months the idea

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Speaker 3: is that the petrol price will go back up to

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Speaker 3: its original level. Then there was some tax relief, so

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Speaker 3: four hundred and twenty dollars tax cut for anybody who

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Speaker 3: pays taxes and earns beneath one hundred and twenty six

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Speaker 3: thousand dollars. Again, that's a one year only thing, and

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Speaker 3: it's something that you'll get when you file your tax

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Speaker 3: return after the first of July this year. And finally

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Speaker 3: there was a one off payment of two hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty dollars which goes to a range of different recipients

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Speaker 3: of government payments including pensioners and recipients of job seeker

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Speaker 3: and youth allowance, and that money should be paid in April.

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Speaker 3: So they were the three key measures on the cost

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Speaker 3: of living front Billy, and I think that there'll be

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Speaker 3: ones at the government or that they would certainly front

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Speaker 3: and center in the way the Treasurer was talking today

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Speaker 3: and a big part of their response to, as you say,

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Speaker 3: rising cost of living pressures.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so cost of living was the main one. Let's

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Speaker 4: move on to a few of the others. What were

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Speaker 4: the other key takeaways from the budget.

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Speaker 3: Yes, so I'll do a little bit of a quick

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Speaker 3: list here. Starting with health. There was a mental health

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Speaker 3: package of about half billion dollars that had a range

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Speaker 3: of different measures, and a women's health package. They were

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Speaker 3: kind of the two headlines of the health section. We

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Speaker 3: sort of heard a little bit over the last week

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Speaker 3: or so about funding specifically for endometriosis support that was

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Speaker 3: part of that women's health package. There are a couple

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Speaker 3: of other bits and pieces in there, and the mental

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Speaker 3: health package included some suicide prevention initiatives. There was also

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Speaker 3: some measures targeted at multicultural communities, a range of sort

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Speaker 3: of smaller items that made up that half a billion

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Speaker 3: mental health package when it came to housing, so the

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Speaker 3: government has this scheme. There's sort of not much money involved,

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Speaker 3: but the government basically it's almost like when you have

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Speaker 3: a guarantee on your rental lease. It's like a similar

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Speaker 3: thing that the government does when you take out a mortgage,

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Speaker 3: where the government basically kind of guarantees your mortgage for you.

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Speaker 3: And the idea is to do that to help first

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Speaker 3: home buyers to buy homes without having to have as

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Speaker 3: much of a deposit. So that's an existing scheme, but

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Speaker 3: it's been expanded to about another fifty thousand people in

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Speaker 3: this budget. A couple of other bits and pieces. There

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Speaker 3: were some funding for apprentices There was also some funding

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Speaker 3: for tourism and for university research, recognizing I suppose that

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Speaker 3: they're both sectors that have been quite hard hit by

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Speaker 3: the pandemic. So the budget predicted that tourism numbers, international

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Speaker 3: tourism numbers and higher education numbers wouldn't be back to

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Speaker 3: their pre COVID levels for a few years yet, so

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Speaker 3: that's part of why they were in focus. There was

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Speaker 3: a lot of spending on defense, part of a lot

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Speaker 3: of the language the government has been using about needing

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Speaker 3: to increase defense capability. Over the last little while. There

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Speaker 3: was also a significant package a range of programs to

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Speaker 3: reduce violence against women, the first phase of the government's

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Speaker 3: National Plan to End Violence against Women from twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: two to twenty thirty two. A couple of different bits

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Speaker 3: and pieces within that, so that's a real tool. Maybe

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Speaker 3: the last one that's worth mentioning is a change to

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Speaker 3: parental leave arrangements. I think this is quite a significant one.

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Speaker 3: So the total amount of parental leave increased from eighteen

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Speaker 3: weeks to twenty weeks, but I suppose more significantly. Rather

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Speaker 3: than the old system of kind of a primary carer,

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Speaker 3: which in same sex families has traditionally been the mother

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Speaker 3: who gets most of the leave. Now there's twenty weeks

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Speaker 3: to be shared between both parents and they can share

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Speaker 3: that as they see fit. So that's quite a significant

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Speaker 3: change for a number of parents and for the way

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Speaker 3: that parental leave is structured in Australia. So that's just

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Speaker 3: a few of the many of the kind of little

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Speaker 3: bits and pieces that come up in a budget. When

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Speaker 3: I spoke to samon Zari yesterday, Billy I sort of

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Speaker 3: drew out the distinction between this sort of the small

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Speaker 3: picture and the big picture. We've started there with the

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Speaker 3: small picture. Some of the different measures that were in

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Speaker 3: the budget that may be of interest. As I say,

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Speaker 3: we don't have time to get through all of it.

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Speaker 3: But that's a pretty good whirlwind tour.

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Speaker 4: I think four hundred pages summarised into about two minutes.

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Speaker 2: I love it.

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Speaker 4: I think one of the other key takeaways for us,

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Speaker 4: Tom was what the budget said about Australia's future. Can

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Speaker 4: you take us through that as well?

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Speaker 2: Sure?

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Speaker 3: So, I think that's probably a good invitation to talk.

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Speaker 3: I guess a little bit more about the big picture.

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Speaker 3: I suppose the future and the big picture kind of

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Speaker 3: similar things. So I guess maybe the place to start

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Speaker 3: is explaining why the budget talks about the future. So

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Speaker 3: the budget includes a whole bunch of different forecasts about

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Speaker 3: what the government expects the world to look like. And

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Speaker 3: those forecasts are produced not by the politicians but by Treasury,

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Speaker 3: by the public servants who work with the Treasurer to

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Speaker 3: produce the budget, and it gives us kind of quite

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Speaker 3: a broad sense of you know, how does the government

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Speaker 3: think things are going, how do we think the economy

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Speaker 3: is going? And what's it going to look like over

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Speaker 3: the next few years. And the answer is that the

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Speaker 3: outlook in a lot of ways is pretty rosy, but

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Speaker 3: that there are some risks. So there are a number

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Speaker 3: of predictions that the budget makes over the next few

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Speaker 3: years that are quite positive. I think the most eye

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Speaker 3: catching of those was that the budget expects wages to

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Speaker 3: start growing again, not just growing, but growing faster than

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Speaker 3: the price of things. That's something we've spoken about on

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Speaker 3: the podcast before. The term for it is real wages

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Speaker 3: growth and it's something that hasn't happened in more than

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Speaker 3: a decade. So it's quite significant that the government thinks

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Speaker 3: that that's something that's going to happen over the next

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Speaker 3: few years. It's something that we'll have a little bit

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Speaker 3: more to say about over the next couple of days

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Speaker 3: in some more of our budget coverage on Instagram, But

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Speaker 3: suffice to say, I think it's a little bit of

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Speaker 3: a controversial prediction that the budget has made, and it's

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Speaker 3: something that clashes a little bit with the way that

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Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank, which I guess is the other major

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Speaker 3: economic authority in Australia, has been talking about wages. The

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Speaker 3: Reserve banker suggest that it's worried and wants to see

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Speaker 3: some more wages growth before it's convinced that the economy

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Speaker 3: is I suppose healthy and fully recovered from COVID. The

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Speaker 3: government seems to think we are fully recovered from COVID

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Speaker 3: in an economic sense. Wages will start graying again, So

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Speaker 3: that's certainly very interesting. As I said, though, I guess

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Speaker 3: there are a lot of kind of risks and things

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Speaker 3: to be nervous about in future that the budget always

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Speaker 3: sort of mentions, you know, what are the key risks,

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Speaker 3: what are the things that could derail the economy, What

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Speaker 3: are the things that we're keeping an eye on. Some

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Speaker 3: of them are exactly what you'd expect. So a couple

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Speaker 3: of the things that were listed in the budget were,

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Speaker 3: of course Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the possibility that

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Speaker 3: that spirals into a larger conflict that would have a

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Speaker 3: number of very different consequences, but one of them an

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Speaker 3: economic consequence. The budget also warned about what would happen

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Speaker 3: if there was a major COVID outbreak in China. That's

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Speaker 3: something we've written about and TDA this week. China has

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Speaker 3: quite low vaccination rates among its elderly population. And so

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Speaker 3: a significant outbreak there, which hasn't happened yet in the

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Speaker 3: two years that China's been fighting the pandemic would have

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Speaker 3: some significant economic consequences for China and by extension, Australia.

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Speaker 3: And then there are a couple of other bits and pieces.

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Speaker 3: A budget expects that there will be an omicron wave

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Speaker 3: in winter, a significant omicron wave that might lead to

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Speaker 3: a lot of people having to isolate and some similar

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Speaker 3: sort of supply chain issues to what we saw in

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Speaker 3: supermarkets early in the year when you had a lot

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Speaker 3: of people isolating. But the budget thinks that and Treasury

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Speaker 3: thinks that the high vaccination rates that we have in

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Speaker 3: Australia mean that that won't be too damaging a wave

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Speaker 3: and not something that they think will affect economic activity.

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Speaker 3: I guess which is the budget's focus. So there are

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Speaker 3: a couple of the bits and pieces that the budget

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Speaker 3: had to say about the future. One thing that I

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Speaker 3: think it's fair to say the budget was fairly silent

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Speaker 3: on in terms of the future was climate change. So

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Speaker 3: the budget does not forecast or discuss any economic impacts

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Speaker 3: of climate change. It covers the economic impacts of all

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Speaker 3: sorts of things. As I say, Russia and China and

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Speaker 3: all these other bits and pieces. It did cover the

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Speaker 3: economic impacts of the floods we've just had, but there's

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Speaker 3: no analysis in there what will the economic impact be

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Speaker 3: if these sorts of natural disasters that we're seeing are

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Speaker 3: going to become more severe as scientists are warning that

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Speaker 3: they are. So that's something that I think was probably

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Speaker 3: missing from this discussion of risks in the future and

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Speaker 3: the budget certainly something that I think is front of

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Speaker 3: mine for a lot of listeners when we talk about

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Speaker 3: the future. But apart from that, there was some very

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Speaker 3: interesting discussion in there in the budget about what we

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Speaker 3: can expect over the next few years. So there's another

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Speaker 3: couple of hundred pages summarizing well in format. Billy, I

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Speaker 3: think it's getting probably time to go.

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Speaker 4: To pit and I'm sure that Tom you will keep

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Speaker 4: the podcast listeners updated as the week goes on and

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Speaker 4: more comes out. We also have Labor the opposition delivering

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Speaker 4: their response to the budget on Thursday, and we will

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Speaker 4: still be in Canberra for that. Cannot wait. Thank you

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Speaker 4: so much for everyone listening, and sam Azara will be

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Speaker 4: back tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening, and before you go, don't forget to

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Speaker 3: subscribe on Spotify if you haven't already, leave us a

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Speaker 3: rating and helps us heaps as independent media. Thanks again

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Speaker 3: for listening, and Happy budget Day.