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Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

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Speaker 1: Bungelung Caalcuttin woman from Gadigl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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Speaker 1: Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres

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Speaker 1: Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.

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Speaker 2: Good morning and welcome to the Daily Eadie. This Friday,

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Speaker 2: the twenty first of October. I'm Sam and I'm Tom.

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Speaker 2: Today on the podcast, I wanted to have a chat

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Speaker 2: to my good friend Tom, not necessarily about the Australian economy,

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Speaker 2: but the world's economy. And the reason why is because

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Speaker 2: there's an our words that just keeps coming up and

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Speaker 2: I need to know whether I'm freaking out for the

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Speaker 2: right reasons.

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Speaker 3: Or if it's all just going to blow over. The

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Speaker 3: R word, of course being recessioned. Sam, we'll talk about

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Speaker 3: that in moment, but first to some headlines. Green's senator

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Speaker 3: Lydia Thorpe has resigned as the party's deputy leader in

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Speaker 3: the Senate after she failed to disclose a relationship with

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Speaker 3: a former bikie gang leader while she was serving on

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Speaker 3: a parliamentary Law Enforcement committee that was receiving confidential briefings

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Speaker 3: about biking gangs. Thorpe said that she had made mistakes

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Speaker 3: and not exercised good judgment and will now focus on

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Speaker 3: her portfolio work in parliament. Meanwhile, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews

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Speaker 3: has defended his handling of the pandemic in the wake

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Speaker 3: of a new report which found instances of overreach in

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Speaker 3: the government response to COVID nineteen. Andrews, who oversaw two

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Speaker 3: hundred and sixty two days of lockdown in Victoria, said

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Speaker 3: that decisions made during the pandemic quote were not made

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Speaker 3: lightly and taken with very careful consideration. Private Health Insurance

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Speaker 3: Many Bank has confirmed customer data was stolen from them

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Speaker 3: last week. Names, addresses and contact details of some Medibank

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Speaker 3: members are said to have been taken in the breach,

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Speaker 3: which was initially thought to have not taken any customer

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Speaker 3: data from Road Network.

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Speaker 2: And today's good news we have some excellent sport ahead

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Speaker 2: of us this weekend. Australia will begin its title defense

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Speaker 2: of the Men's twenty twenty Cricket World Cup against New

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Speaker 2: Zealand tomorrow night. The match will be a replay of

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Speaker 2: last year's World Cup final, which saw Australia win its

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Speaker 2: first T twenty World Cup with an eight wicket victory

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Speaker 2: in Dubai. The tournament runs for four weeks, with a

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Speaker 2: champion set to be crowned in Melbourne next month. Tom, Today,

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Speaker 2: I want to talk to you about not just one economy,

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Speaker 2: but the economy, the world economy. You did a video

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Speaker 2: last weekend for US over on Instagram where you discussed

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Speaker 2: some signs that the world is headed for a recession

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Speaker 2: in a broad sense. What are the kind of warning

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Speaker 2: signs that you're looking at?

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Speaker 3: Thanks Sam, pleasure to be here. So, I mean there

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Speaker 3: are a number of different bad things. We know. There

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Speaker 3: are lots of concerning things happening in the world at

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Speaker 3: the moment. Rising prices clearly one of them. We talk

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Speaker 3: about this all the time, experiencing it here in Australia era.

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Speaker 3: I've spoken on the pod before about how there's a

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Speaker 3: price problem kind of all over the world when it

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Speaker 3: comes to petrol, food and a whole bunch of different things.

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Speaker 3: So that's one of the big risks, and it's not

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Speaker 3: just the price rises itself that's creating a risk there.

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Speaker 3: But the way that we respond to it because if

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Speaker 3: you like, I guess the way that you can talk

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Speaker 3: about price rises is they're kind of an economy that's overheating.

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Speaker 3: And the way that we tend to respond to that

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Speaker 3: is by trying to constrain our spending and try to

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Speaker 3: pull those prices back, and that can kind of backfire,

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Speaker 3: if you like, That can send an economy backwards. Less

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Speaker 3: spending can mean that businesses make less money, people lose jobs,

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Speaker 3: and all that sort of things. So that that's one concern,

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Speaker 3: and there's also a bit of a concern going on

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Speaker 3: in China. That's another thing we've been talking about recently.

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Speaker 3: We had a whole episode chatting about all of the

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Speaker 3: different things that are happening in the Chinese economy. China

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Speaker 3: has been completely transforming itself over thirty years, Entire cities

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Speaker 3: being built, it's been booming in an economic sense, and

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Speaker 3: there's a sense that that's coming to a halt, and

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Speaker 3: so there are these kind of storm clouds gathering. And

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Speaker 3: I'm conscious of how, you know, so dense and abstract

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Speaker 3: economics can be sometimes and so the way that I'm

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Speaker 3: talking about this global recession, I guess the reason I

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Speaker 3: use a phrase like storm clouds. I don't want people

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Speaker 3: to think about a recession like it's this kind of

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Speaker 3: like horrible medical condition that you can get diagnosed with.

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Speaker 3: I think sometimes like we talk about recession, capital are

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Speaker 3: like it's this big thing, and people don't feel they

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Speaker 3: understand the thing. All that we mean when we're talking

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Speaker 3: about the global recession is that the sum total of

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Speaker 3: all of these problems that I'm listening to you are

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Speaker 3: potentially threatening to create some bad outcomes that we care about.

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Speaker 3: And so again, you know, rather than just using the

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Speaker 3: word the economy, you know, the big threat is that

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Speaker 3: we're going to see people lose their jobs, businesses go,

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Speaker 3: under standards of living plummet. We're already seeing you know,

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Speaker 3: famine and all sorts of hunger problems. We're seeing countries

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Speaker 3: sort of tear themselves apart, where seeing governments fall over

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Speaker 3: in countries like Sri Lanka and Lebanon because of this

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Speaker 3: economic trouble, and so a recession's more like this kind

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Speaker 3: of sign post of more of that kind of trouble.

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Speaker 2: On the way. Is there any sort of hangover from

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Speaker 2: the pandemic that you're still considering or is it now

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Speaker 2: more about China and Ukraine and some of these kind

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Speaker 2: of more twenty twenty two issues. Yeah, I think it

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Speaker 2: is a lot more twenty twenty two. It's funny how

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Speaker 2: quickly obviously, you know, the pandemic. We still have COVID

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Speaker 2: among us, but the way that we think about COVID

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Speaker 2: and the role that it's playing in our lives has

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Speaker 2: changed really quickly. There is a little bit of the

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Speaker 2: aftermath of COVID in this So in China in particular,

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Speaker 2: they're still doing lockdowns and that sort of thing, and

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Speaker 2: that's a big part of what's causing disruptions in China.

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Speaker 3: At the moment. But for the rest of us, it's

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Speaker 3: kind of, you know, one crisis gave us the seeds

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Speaker 3: that grew the next crisis. So you know, in America,

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Speaker 3: for example, it was a lot of the economic supports

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Speaker 3: that were given, you know, during COVID that created kind

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Speaker 3: of this frenzy of spending coming out of lockdowns that

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Speaker 3: then fueled this prices problem, so that there's some linkages.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, it's really it's been a pretty brutal start

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Speaker 3: to the twenty twenties for the world. And you know,

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Speaker 3: the COVID thing was its own whole global recession. We

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Speaker 3: did have obviously a massive economic fallout across the world,

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Speaker 3: apart from all the health consequences when COVID came along.

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Speaker 3: But no, this is really a fresh set of problems.

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Speaker 3: You know, just when we thought we were getting clear

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Speaker 3: of the last ones. We're going to take a short break.

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Speaker 3: We'll be right back. And do you think if.

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Speaker 2: Australia remains somewhat insulated from the economic pressures and from

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Speaker 2: a recession, that we would still feel the impacts of

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Speaker 2: a global recession on our daily lives, even if it's

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Speaker 2: not that bad at home. Oh?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, I mean it's already you know, we're already there, right, Like,

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Speaker 3: I guess one of the things that comes out really

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Speaker 3: clearly when you talk about the world economy is how

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Speaker 3: interconnected it all is and how reliant we are on

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Speaker 3: the rest of the world. Like who would have thought,

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Speaker 3: really that a war all the way over to the

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Speaker 3: other side of the world in Ukraine, a country that

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Speaker 3: most of us probably didn't spend that much time thinking about,

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Speaker 3: that that could create this kind of global famine issue

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Speaker 3: in terms of you know, wheat being restricted and that

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Speaker 3: it could you know, increase the prices of the petrol

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Speaker 3: pump here in Australia. Like that's not something that's necessarily

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Speaker 3: really intuitively obvious to people, the way that works, and

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Speaker 3: how you know less gas and oil coming out of

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Speaker 3: Russia has flow on effects to us all the way

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Speaker 3: over the other side of the world. And I think

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Speaker 3: that just goes to show, you know, I mean more

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Speaker 3: and more, the amount that we trade across the world,

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Speaker 3: how economically reliant we are on one another, and the

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Speaker 3: way that the global economy is constructed means that we

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Speaker 3: are always going to be vulnerable to these global storm clouds,

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Speaker 3: not just to what's happening in Russia, but in a

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Speaker 3: big way to what's happening in China and America. They're

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Speaker 3: really important countries to us, and so things that happen

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Speaker 3: over there. Even if Australia did absolutely everything perfectly here

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Speaker 3: at home, even if we were kind of perfectly getting

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Speaker 3: on top of our rising prices problem kind of as

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Speaker 3: soon as we can, and our government and Reserve Bank

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Speaker 3: did a great job, Yeah, we're at the mercy of

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Speaker 3: stuff that happens overseas, and you know pretty clearly that's

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Speaker 3: coming for us and that's why you're hearing the treasurer

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Speaker 3: talk about what a difficult time it's going to be

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Speaker 3: over the next little while. You know that that is

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Speaker 3: just in a sense the way it works. And you know,

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Speaker 3: you think back to two thousand and eight, there was

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Speaker 3: a big global financial and Australia technically avoided you know,

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Speaker 3: capital r recession, but we still had a tough time there.

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Speaker 3: You know, it was still difficult. I don't know if

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Speaker 3: people remember when they were in high school, maybe you

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Speaker 3: know Kevin Rudd stimulus checks giving everyone money to go

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Speaker 3: and spend and that kind of thing. It was a

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Speaker 3: pretty difficult economic challenge that Australia had to get itself

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Speaker 3: through at that point in time as well. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: you know, I think we should brace ourselves for a

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Speaker 3: difficult year. You mentioned the treasure just then, and I

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Speaker 3: want to end by asking you a question about Tuesday's budget,

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Speaker 3: which I know that you're heading to Canberra for to

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Speaker 3: do the kind of lock up thing for TDA, and

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Speaker 3: we'll be speaking to you a lot next week about that.

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Speaker 3: But before I get there, is this all inevitable?

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Speaker 2: Is it now? Not a matter of predicting if?

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Speaker 3: But when I mean, maybe that there are economists are

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Speaker 3: divided on whether we'll actually have again. I kept coming

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Speaker 3: back to the phrase capital r recession, but still that's

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Speaker 3: a bit, it's a bit beside the point. Like, whichever

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Speaker 3: way you want to look at it, things are not

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Speaker 3: great at the moment. There's there's obviously a lot of

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Speaker 3: challenges that the whole world is facing. Australia doesn't have

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Speaker 3: it the worst of the lot. We probably have, you know,

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Speaker 3: a bit of a better than most countries. But we're

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Speaker 3: you know, we're not immune. So it is inevitable in

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Speaker 3: some sense that we're going to be challenged. And look,

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Speaker 3: we're in a good position in some ways. Unemployment's really low,

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Speaker 3: you know, a very high proportion of people in Australia

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Speaker 3: have jobs at the moment, people had accumulated savings during COVID.

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Speaker 3: Those things have us in good stead. There are other

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Speaker 3: things that we're more concerned about, like the fact that

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Speaker 3: wages haven't grown in a really long time, you know.

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Speaker 3: So there are some things that have us really well

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Speaker 3: prepared to weather the storm, and other things where we're

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Speaker 3: not so well prepared. But yeah, certainly I think it

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Speaker 3: is inevitable that it's going to be a difficult period,

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Speaker 3: even if we don't officially have a recession.

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Speaker 2: So let's look forward now to Tuesday night. How will

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Speaker 2: you know, when you're pouring over the budget docks that

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Speaker 2: the government is particularly concerned about the global economic conditions. Well,

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Speaker 2: I imagine they'll say it pretty clearly, to be honest,

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Speaker 2: and I think it's going to form a big part

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Speaker 2: of the budget. You know, if you give into the

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Speaker 2: sort of the stereotypes of the Labor Party and the Coalition,

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Speaker 2: people tend to expect, know, Labor's the kind of party

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Speaker 2: that might naturally want to spend on a bunch of

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Speaker 2: new things. And you know, for example, I think of

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Speaker 2: the rate of job seek at the unemployment payment, where

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Speaker 2: welfare groups have been calling for that to increase for

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Speaker 2: a long time, and Labor politicians will say, yeah, we

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Speaker 2: think that's a good idea, but at the moment they're saying,

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Speaker 2: but we can't afford it. And that's kind of the

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Speaker 2: the immediate consequence of all of this global trouble. And

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Speaker 2: that's what we're hearing a lot from the Treasure is

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Speaker 2: he He's saying, you know, all of these these issues

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Speaker 2: mean that we have to be a little bit careful.

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Speaker 2: We have to make sure we're ready in case there's

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Speaker 2: another crisis, in case we have to spend. So we

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Speaker 2: can't be too over the top with our spending now.

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Speaker 2: We need to we need to, you know, tighten our

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Speaker 2: belts a little bit. That's the language that he's using,

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Speaker 2: and that's clearly the way the government's positioning its strategy.

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Speaker 2: Now there's you know, you can get into whole debates

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Speaker 2: about different tax cuts and different choices the government could make,

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Speaker 2: but certainly the context for this budget next week and

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Speaker 2: how the global situation feeds into our budget, is that

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Speaker 2: the new Labor government is really concerned about I guess,

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Speaker 2: not wanting to commit too many new spending ideas and.

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Speaker 3: To prepare ourselves. I guess you know, it's like doomsday

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Speaker 3: prepping in a sense, preparing for the kind of money

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Speaker 3: that we might need to spend it in a difficult

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Speaker 3: situation over the next couple of years.

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Speaker 2: So I guess we'll have a chat to you about

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Speaker 2: the federal budget on Wednesday morning, after you've spent a

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Speaker 2: couple of hours without internet or any phone reception pouring

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Speaker 2: over the budget papers. Tom Crowley, thank you for joining

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Speaker 2: us on this Friday morning. Some storm clouds are gathering,

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Speaker 2: but I'm glad that we've got you to hold an

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Speaker 2: umbrella for us. I don't know if I can actually

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Speaker 2: do much to fight off the global storm cloud Sam,

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Speaker 2: but at least I mean it's spring now. Of course

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Speaker 2: you can, Tom, That's why we've got you here. Of

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Speaker 2: Course you can. That's all we've got time for today

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Speaker 2: on the Daily OS. If you need some weekend listening,

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Speaker 2: then definitely feel free to check out our other podcasts.

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Speaker 2: It's at the top of the charts The Mirror. It's

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Speaker 2: a sensational listen for a walk on a Saturday morning,

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Speaker 2: raining or not. Until then, we'll speak to you bright

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Speaker 2: and early on Monday morning.

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Speaker 3: Fe