1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,480 Speaker 1: All eyes are indeed on the tropical cyclone Narrell at 2 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: the moment as she is set to hit both far 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 1: north Queensland before crossing the Gulf of Carpenteria and making 4 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: landfall here in the Northern Territory. Now joining us live 5 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: on the line is senior meteorologist with the Bureau of Meteorology, 6 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 1: Christy Johnson. Good morning to Christy, Good morning Katie, Thanks 7 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: so much for your time this morning. Now, Christy, can 8 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: you talk me through where the cyclone is at the moment. 9 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 2: Yes, So, Look, it's still well and truly off the 10 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 2: coast of Queensland, about four hundred odd kilometers east northeast 11 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 2: of Cooktown. Breaking news. It does look like it has 12 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 2: now strengthened to a category five. So when we did 13 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 2: the assessment a couple of hours ago, it was still 14 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 2: a category four, but since then it looks like it 15 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 2: has continued to intensify. So now looks like it will 16 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 2: be a category five on the next track map that 17 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 2: will be issued, and it is expected to remain as 18 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 2: a category five as it moves westward and approaches the 19 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:10,679 Speaker 2: Queensland coast. It may weaken as it gets close to 20 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 2: the coast. Just a little bit of interaction with the land. 21 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 2: It might drop just below the category five as it 22 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 2: makes landfall, but it is possible that it might still 23 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 2: be a Category five at landfall. So it'll either be 24 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:24,119 Speaker 2: a Category five or a high end Category four as 25 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 2: it hits that coast of Queensland, bringing the potential for 26 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 2: wind gusts of two hundred and fifty commers now or more, 27 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:32,679 Speaker 2: perhaps close to this center. 28 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it is going to be a whopper 29 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: by the sounds of verse in terms of that intensity. 30 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: Do we know exactly where it is looking as though 31 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 1: it's going to make landfall? Obviously we know far north Queensland, 32 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: but they've been talk about it being near Cooktown, a 33 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 1: near Cohen. Where is it looking like it's going to 34 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:49,559 Speaker 1: strike at this point? 35 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, probably close to Cohen than Cooktown. It does 36 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 2: look like it's probably north of Cape Melville, but sort 37 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 2: of somewhere between Cape Melville and rock Lockhart River is 38 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 2: the most likely spot for it to make landfall. Obviously, 39 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: the tracks can wobble a little bit as it comes 40 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 2: in closer, so if it does move a little bit 41 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 2: further south, then Cooktown could definitely be impacted, and the 42 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 2: warning area does extend from Cave Tribulation up to Lockarut 43 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 2: River and includes Cooktown as well, So yeah, cover that 44 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 2: possibility now. 45 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,839 Speaker 1: Of course, all eyes on a far North queens zone 46 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,839 Speaker 1: up there and the impact that Norell is going to have. 47 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: But then for us here in the Northern Territory, we 48 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: are keeping a really close eye on things. After it 49 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: hits landfall in North Queensland and then it crosses into 50 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: the Gulf of Carpenteria. Christy, can you tell us what 51 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 1: the modeling is sort of suggesting that it might do next? 52 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 2: Yes, So, look, it is expected if it is such 53 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,959 Speaker 2: a strong system, which is expected to be category of 54 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 2: four or five, as it reaches Queensland, it will remain 55 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,839 Speaker 2: as a category as a tropical cyclone. As it moves 56 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:59,239 Speaker 2: across the peninsula, it may weaken back to a category 57 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 2: two while it's over land sort of over the western Peninsula, 58 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 2: but once it moves back out over the waters of 59 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 2: the Gulf of Carpenterier it is expected to re strength 60 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 2: and so we're currently expecting a severe tropical cyclone category 61 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,799 Speaker 2: three at this stage. Probably category three is the most likely, 62 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 2: although we are watching to see depending on how long 63 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 2: it lingers in the in the Gulf of Carpenteria. There 64 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 2: is some potential it could strengthen to a Category four. 65 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:28,959 Speaker 2: But yeah, it does depend on how quickly it moves across. 66 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 2: But it will certainly does look like a severe impact 67 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 2: on Groot Island and there's sort of eastern coast. And 68 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 2: then as it moves inland, obviously it will weaken as 69 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 2: it moves over land and probably become more of a 70 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 2: tropical low as it moves across the central and the 71 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 2: western parts of the top end. 72 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: So can you talk us through that timing? I guess 73 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: for us in the into we're very interested in, you know, 74 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: in when it is going to hit landfall in the 75 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: northern territory, and I guess what kind of winds we 76 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,839 Speaker 1: might be expecting and what kind of rain it could bring, 77 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: you know, as it crosses further into the territory. 78 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, so look at the moment, the timing is it'll 79 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 2: be moving across the Gulf of Carpenteria during Saturday, so 80 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 2: it will be approaching Grout Islands at this stage looks 81 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 2: like later on Saturday, and then moving on to sort 82 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 2: of more the mainland region sort of overnight into Sunday morning. 83 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 2: That's based on the current tracks. Obviously, if it makes 84 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 2: landfall or gets close to landfall as a Category three, 85 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 2: that does give the potential for some very strong winds. 86 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 2: Potentially Category three would be a wind gusts over about 87 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty five kilometers an hour, so we'll 88 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 2: be definitely watching for that. We're looking at the potential 89 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 2: for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, particularly around that sort 90 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 2: of impact on in the east. As it moves eastwards 91 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 2: and it weakens, the wind will become less of an issue, 92 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 2: although there'll still be some strong winds, but it will 93 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 2: become more about the rainfall. And of course there is 94 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 2: the potential for more rainfall to fall on those flooded 95 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 2: catchments that have seen flooding, so the Catherine River for example. 96 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,799 Speaker 2: It's back to minor flooding now, but we could certainly 97 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 2: see further rises with rain with this system, possibly even 98 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 2: a sort of worst case scenario, but possibly even back 99 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 2: to what we saw earlier in the months. Might get 100 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 2: back up at Catherine the Daily River. The good news 101 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: is that it'll have weakened further by the time it 102 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 2: reaches the Daily catchment, and when not expecting the waters 103 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 2: to come up significantly with the rainfall over the daily catchrop. 104 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 2: What it will do is just prolong the flooding, so 105 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 2: it'll stay above that major flood level for longer based 106 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 2: on the forecast rainfall there. 107 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: And Christy, for us here in Darwin and the Greater 108 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: Darwin region, are we expecting much rain to hit our 109 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: way as well as a result of this system? 110 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 2: Look, there certainly could will be some significant showers and 111 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 2: possible thunderstorms as the system moves through. It's probably a 112 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 2: bit less likely to sort of see severe weather, although 113 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 2: it's not out of their question that we get some 114 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 2: locally heavy rainfall with storms as that what will be 115 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 2: probably a tropical low at the time makes its way across. 116 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 2: So yeah, it Look, there's the potential for up to 117 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 2: fifty forty fifty millimeters around sort of Sunday Monday as 118 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 2: that system comes past. But if we do get some 119 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 2: severe storms and it could get a bit higher than 120 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 2: that too. 121 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: And Christy, just before I let you go, are we 122 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: still anticipating then that this system could continue to head 123 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 1: across to WI and potentially strike as a cyclone there 124 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: as well. 125 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 2: Look, it possibly could so depending on where it goes 126 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 2: after it moves across the sort of southern end of 127 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,840 Speaker 2: the top end. If it stays mostly over the land, 128 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 2: if it's a little bit further south and just sort 129 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 2: of moves into the Kimberly, then it would just remain 130 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 2: as a tropical depression. But if it does move out 131 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 2: into the Bonaparte Gulf and out over the water, then 132 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: it could redevelop into a tropical cyclone. And we have 133 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 2: actually got on our seven day forecast the potential basically 134 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 2: a high chance, the sort of fifty five to sixty 135 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 2: five percent chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone next 136 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 2: Wednesday off the waters to the northwest of the Kimberley. Now, 137 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 2: of course, where it goes after that, if it does restrengthen, 138 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 2: it may move away from the coast, or I guess 139 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 2: some models do sort of curve it back and bring 140 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 2: it back down sort of more towards the Pilborough coast. 141 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 2: So we'll definitely be watching that, but that's quite a 142 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 2: long way away. There's a lot of ways that could 143 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 2: play out, but there certainly is a chance that it 144 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 2: could restrengthen into a tropical cyclone once again. Once it 145 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 2: leaves the Northern Territory well. 146 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: Senior meteorologists with the Bureau of Meteorology, Christy Johnson, we 147 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: really appreciate your time this morning. Thank you very much 148 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: for having a chat with us and telling us a 149 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: bit more about Noelle. She doesn't sound very nice at this. 150 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 2: Point, No problem, Katie, And just letting you know that 151 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 2: I think the warnings will start to be issued for 152 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 2: the Northern Territory today, So it's dusking everyone, particularly if 153 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 2: you're in that more recent part of the state or 154 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 2: you know people there, to keep an eye on those 155 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 2: warnings as they start to get issued. 156 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, good advice. We will make sure that we keep 157 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: people up to date as well. Thank you so much 158 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: for your time this morning, Christy. 159 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 2: Thanks Katie, thank you.