1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: The ABC Online yesterday reporting that well that unfortunately, our 2 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: ABS data has showed that seventeen three hundred and ninety 3 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: people left the Northern Territory in the last financial year, 4 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: while fourteen thousand, one hundred and twenty moved to the territory. 5 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: It equates to a net loss of three thy two 6 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 1: hundred and seventy people, and questions have been asked about 7 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: whether the Northern Territory government is going to be able 8 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: to reach its set population target of three hundred thousand 9 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 1: people by twenty thirty. 10 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 2: Now joining us on the line is Charles Darwin. 11 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 1: Demographer Associate Professor Andrew Taylor. 12 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:42,599 Speaker 3: Good morning, Andrew, Good morning, Katie, Good morning listeners. 13 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 1: Great to have you on the show. Andrew, tell us 14 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 1: what is the main driver from the research that you're 15 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: doing at this point as to why people are leaving 16 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: the NT. 17 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 3: Yes, so, you know, it is the case that we 18 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: do tend to lose more people each year than we 19 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 3: gain from other stuf and territories. Unfortunately, fortunately, I should say, 20 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 3: we managed to cover up with overseas migration which has 21 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 3: been pretty strong lately. But as for why people leave 22 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 3: the territory, for individuals and their families. It is usually 23 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,680 Speaker 3: a complex mix of things. But when we ask people 24 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: to say one reason one main reason, the reason does 25 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 3: depend on their age and their stage of life. So 26 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 3: the things that are important to us change obviously as 27 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 3: we as we move through years of life and have 28 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 3: major events in our lives like having kids and so on, 29 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 3: and retire. So for early career people, people in their 30 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,680 Speaker 3: twenties and early thirties, who form a large portion of 31 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 3: the movements of people between other states and the Northern 32 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 3: Territory in both directions. For them it's work and study 33 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 3: and to some degree defense transfers, which kind of makes 34 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 3: sense to as you move further through life, things like 35 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 3: to be back with family become more prominent. Again, work 36 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 3: is always a prominent up until you're reaching retirement, but 37 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 3: for pre retirees and retirees, things like the state of 38 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 3: the economy and cost of living come more to the 39 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 3: fore than of course work does, as reasons they might 40 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 3: leave the territory or indeed have already left the territory. 41 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 3: So it's really gradated by age and the reasons that 42 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 3: people might come and go change by their stage in life. 43 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: And based on the research that you have done, like 44 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: what age bracket I suppose are we are we losing 45 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: people to other states I guess, you know, more sort 46 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: of more prevalently. 47 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, So we have always tended to have a net 48 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 3: gain of those early career people who come, you know, 49 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 3: to either start their career off or jump start their 50 00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 3: existing career by coming to the territory. And many of those, 51 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 3: as we all know, come for a fixed amount of 52 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,839 Speaker 3: toll or intensor only stay for a fixed amount of time. 53 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 3: Some do stay much longer, and it does actually drop off. 54 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 3: The likelihood of leaving the territory drops off for individuals 55 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 3: if they managed to stay more than five years or 56 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 3: five years or more, you know, to get a significant 57 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 3: drop off in the probability of leaving. So keeping people 58 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 3: as long as we can is kind of important in 59 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 3: that respect. But yet once those early careers people start 60 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 3: to transition into their mid career into their thirties, then 61 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 3: their probability of leaving is quite high. So we've always 62 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 3: got that turn around the early career people moving into 63 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 3: their mid careers and wanting to be back with family 64 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 3: or starting a family in the territory and wanting to 65 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 3: have the support of their family down south. So we 66 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 3: source a lot of people from South, which unfortunately means 67 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 3: those connections to the South remain for many and when 68 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 3: a big event happens, like a child being born, it's 69 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 3: natural that people want to head back. Yeah, it does 70 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 3: with the family support. 71 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 2: It does have a big impact. 72 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: And having that family support obviously is something that has 73 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:12,119 Speaker 1: a massive impact. 74 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 2: Andrew tell us when was the last. 75 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 1: Time that we'd sort of done that further research into 76 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: why people are leaving. 77 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, Unfortunately, what I'm talking about came from research we 78 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 3: did with five thousand plus people in twenty nineteen, twenty twenty. Yeah, 79 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,039 Speaker 3: that's a little bit dated now. I suspect though that 80 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 3: the reasons for people coming and going fundamentally haven't changed 81 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 3: a lot since then. You know, there is a lot 82 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 3: of talk about crime, yeah, driving people away, but it 83 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 3: didn't come up as the main reason for many people 84 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 3: in our study in twenty nineteen. 85 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 1: I'm quite interested in that because we kind of we 86 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,480 Speaker 1: do have a lot of people that sort of say 87 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 1: to us, you know, that they're considering leaving as a 88 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: result of that issue. 89 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, the age or sorry, the life stage in the 90 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 3: territory that people were most likely to state crime as 91 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:11,159 Speaker 3: the main reason for leaving was for retirees. And I 92 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 3: think you know, as we go through life, crime becomes 93 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 3: accumulative aspect of our life. So you know, the longer 94 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 3: you live, the more likely you are to be affected 95 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 3: by crime, essentially just through probability, and of course you 96 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 3: become more sensitive to threats of violence and so on. 97 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 3: I think as you get older, you become more conservative, 98 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 3: speaking from personal experience, so that kind of makes sense too. 99 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 4: But you know, crime was about the same sort of 100 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 4: level as climates in terms of reasons people might leave 101 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 4: or have left the territory. I think will grow as 102 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 4: a reason of time, because you know, there's no doubting 103 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 4: when I grew up and went to Nightclif High school, 104 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 4: temperages were two more than two degrees cooler on average 105 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 4: through the year. That's a big difference for a place 106 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 4: that's already hot. Actually, I think that that's not going 107 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 4: to help us in the interstate migration market in the 108 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 4: longer term. 109 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, And I. 110 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: Know, even when I first moved here, I thought, goodness me, 111 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 1: for someone who grew up in North Queensland but had 112 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: lived in Wa it. 113 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 2: Was bloody hot. There is no other way to put it. 114 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 2: And you have to acclimatize in terms of getting used 115 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 2: to it. 116 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 3: You do. It is working in our favor a little 117 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 3: bit because, as I mentioned, we are attracting a lot 118 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 3: of people from overseas and the really the communities that 119 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 3: are really growing, like a Filipino community, some of the 120 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 3: African communities. South African community is an Indian community. They 121 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 3: tend to come from places with similar climates to us, 122 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,719 Speaker 3: either hot and guy or hot and hot and wet 123 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 3: sometimes of the year, you know, so like yeah, Darwin, 124 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,559 Speaker 3: and they tend to cite the climate is a reason 125 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 3: for coming. 126 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: They're right, so they're quite happy with it to be 127 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 1: warm and also to have I guess to be part 128 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 1: of the wet season and that build up. 129 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 3: Well, based on their migration trends, you'd have to say yes, 130 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 3: because they're continuing to grow in our communities right across 131 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 3: the territory, those sort of people from those sorts of 132 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 3: countries that I mentioned. 133 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, Andrew, based on the research that you have done, 134 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: I mean, the Northern Territory government set that population target 135 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: of three hundred thousand people by twenty thirty. 136 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 2: Is it realistic. 137 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 3: Not at the moment without a substantial increasing growth, and 138 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 3: it's hard to see where that might come from at 139 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 3: the moment that the extra growth that would be needed. 140 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 3: So you know, on current growth rates in the latest data, 141 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 3: which for the terrtory for the year of twenty twenty 142 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 3: two to twenty three, that's June to June, we grew 143 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 3: by zero point nine of the percent, which is still 144 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 3: obviously growth, but it's just not at the rate that 145 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 3: would take us to that three hundred thousand. Instead, we'd 146 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 3: be looking at the year twenty forty two if we 147 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 3: maintain that growth rate. However, that's based on that quite 148 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 3: high overseas migration continuing, and the Australian government has clamped 149 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 3: down on it's national intake recently, so we would probably expect, 150 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 3: unfortunately a reduction in the overseas migration to still remain positive, 151 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 3: but not at the level that it is at the moment. 152 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 3: For example, we had an intake of nearly seven thousand 153 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 3: in that year that I mentioned, twenty two to twenty three, 154 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:23,679 Speaker 3: a financial year, so that was a big intake. 155 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: It's really interesting, isn't it, Because a lot of those 156 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: migration targets and a lot of the migration policy is 157 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: obviously seized by our federal police in Canberra and quite 158 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: often what is set I guess for other locations around 159 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: Australia is fair enough. But then when you look at 160 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: Northern Australia and the Northern Territory, our needs are probably 161 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: quite different. 162 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, it raised a very good point, and I 163 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 3: know that there is well being to that effect going 164 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 3: on in the background to recognize the difficulty in attracting 165 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 3: and keeping people in places like the territory and as 166 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 3: you mentioned right across Northern Australia, if we continue to 167 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 3: just be a place of churn. You know, population urn 168 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 3: is kind of infectious, the analogy of the virus, because 169 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 3: you know, if all your friends have left and your 170 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 3: families down south, you're more likely to leave, of course, 171 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 3: because if you don't have the social capital and the 172 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 3: networks around you anymore. So, Yeah, we have put in 173 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 3: submissions in the past for the you, for example, who've 174 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 3: put in submissions to suggest that we should have a 175 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 3: quota for the North of Australia such that for example, 176 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 3: two point five percent of the national intake could come 177 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 3: to the territory. For example, they haven't quite listened yet, 178 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,559 Speaker 3: and as you say, it's out of the territory government's 179 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 3: hand in that respect, and so by the way, almost 180 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 3: are some of the macroeconomical leaders that might otherwise rectify 181 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 3: that into state migration figure. 182 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: It certainly feels like there needs to be a broader 183 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,680 Speaker 1: look when you look at migration and that population growth 184 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: across the board across Australia. You know, we can't continue 185 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: to have a situation where some of those major capital 186 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 1: cities continue to explode and not you know, the infrastructure 187 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: there to be able to support that growth. But then 188 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 1: places like Northern Australia where we do need to fill 189 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: jobs in different different sectors and we do need some 190 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 1: of that skilled migration that we're then sort of you know, 191 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: not benefiting. 192 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, it is a bit our balance. 193 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 2: You know. 194 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 3: Over the same period that we've been talking about for 195 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 3: some of this data, the capital cities of Australia grew 196 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 3: by three percent and that was a record and they 197 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 3: just can't continue to grow that quickly and keep up 198 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 3: with infrastructure and service needs. It's just not possible. So 199 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 3: a bit of rebalancing might be in order, and the 200 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 3: way to do that would be to change migration policy. 201 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 3: Although yeah, we've just had a big national review of 202 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 3: migration and that that idea isn't inherent in the outcome 203 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 3: so far unfortunately. 204 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: Well tell you what, We'll keep a close eye on things, 205 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: but it is always good to catch up with you. 206 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 2: I really appreciate your time. 207 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: CDU demographer Associate Professor Andrew Taylor. 208 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 2: Thank you, Thank you.