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Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

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Speaker 1: Bungelung Calcuttin woman from Gadighal Country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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Speaker 1: Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres

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Speaker 1: Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.

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Speaker 2: Good morning and welcome to the Daily os. It's Thursday,

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Speaker 2: the fourth of May.

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Speaker 3: I'm Zara, I'm sam. May the fourth be with you.

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Speaker 3: Thank you sir.

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Speaker 2: The countdown is on until we have in our hands

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Speaker 2: the next federal budget, and this is going to be

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Speaker 2: a particularly important one with a relatively new government amidst

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Speaker 2: a cost of living crisis. The budget will show us

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Speaker 2: what the government is prioritizing and how they plan to

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Speaker 2: spend our tax payer money. TDA journalist Tom Crowley will

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Speaker 2: be joining us in today's deep Dive to tell us

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Speaker 2: what we need to know ahead of the next week budget.

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Speaker 2: For verse AM, what is making headlines this morning.

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Speaker 3: The opening of the Snowy two point zero renewable energy

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Speaker 3: project has been delayed by up to two years. The

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Speaker 3: delay is due to challenges in the global economic market,

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Speaker 3: as well as the impact of COVID and other challenges.

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Speaker 3: The project was initially expected to be completed in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty six and is a key project in Australia's renewable

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Speaker 3: energy transition.

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Speaker 2: The Northern Territory Government has confirmed the Bealoo Basin project

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Speaker 2: in the NT will go ahead. The project will use

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Speaker 2: a gas production method that's called fracking, and it comes

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Speaker 2: after a ban on fracking was lifted in the NT

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Speaker 2: to actually facilitate this project. Chief Minister Natasha Files has

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Speaker 2: said that fracking in the Betaloo Basin wouldn't come at

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Speaker 2: a cost to Territorians.

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Speaker 3: Some huge news from the AFL world yesterday, Tasmania's first

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Speaker 3: AFL club will become the lead nineteenth team. The new

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Speaker 3: team was supported by all eighteen existing AFL clubs and

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Speaker 3: included a license to play in the AFLW It comes

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Speaker 3: after the Tasmanian government secured crucial funding from the federal

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Speaker 3: government for a new stadium in Hobart. Tasmanian Premier Jeremy

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Speaker 3: Rockliffe called it a proud and groundbreaking moment in their history.

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Speaker 3: The men's team is expected to enter the AFL in

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Speaker 3: the twenty twenty eighth season.

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Speaker 2: And the good news, A German zoo has welcomed its

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Speaker 2: first baby polar bear in twenty one years. The polar

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Speaker 2: bear was born back in December and was the first

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Speaker 2: since its mother, Victoria was born. We're only finding out

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Speaker 2: about this now because the polar bears have spent their

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Speaker 2: first few months together completely undisturbed in their cave, with

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Speaker 2: the zoo saying the baby polar bear looks healthy, lively,

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Speaker 2: and alert and that breeding efforts for the endangered species

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Speaker 2: is paying off. Tom, Welcome back to the pod.

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Speaker 4: How are you I very well, Thanks, Sarah. It's good

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Speaker 4: to be here.

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Speaker 2: On a scale of one to ten, Tom, how excited

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Speaker 2: are you for the budget?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 4: I couldn't put a number on my love for the budget, Zarah.

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Speaker 4: It knows no bounds. Look, I know budget weeks are

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Speaker 4: not exactly everyone's favorite thing, even though they are mine.

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Speaker 3: Even most people.

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Speaker 4: Well, Look, true, I definitely care about budgets more than

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Speaker 4: the typical member of the population. But you know, budgets matter.

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Speaker 4: Budgets are a really important week. I think I would

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Speaker 4: say that if you pick one night of the year

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Speaker 4: to really pay attention to politics. Budget Night's the one

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Speaker 4: that you would pick.

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Speaker 3: They just get it.

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Speaker 4: Why do you say that you get an update on everything?

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Speaker 4: So that there's so many little bits and pieces in

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Speaker 4: a budget. It's an opportunity for the government to tell

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Speaker 4: us how they're updating, you know, spending on just about

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Speaker 4: anything that has dollars and cents attached. And that's so

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Speaker 4: many different aspects of government policy, a particular medicine, whatever.

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Speaker 4: There are so many different parts to the budget. But

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Speaker 4: the big picture really matters as well. It's I think

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Speaker 4: the best chance that we get to do a bit

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Speaker 4: of a performance appraisal of our government, get a sense

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Speaker 4: of the direction that they're heading in in a big

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Speaker 4: picture sense. And I think if you're ever going to

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Speaker 4: pick a budget to really pay attention to, it'd be

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Speaker 4: this one. Because you've got a new government. This is

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Speaker 4: their second budget, but I guess it's kind of their

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Speaker 4: first budget with the training wheels off, and it really

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Speaker 4: is a chance for them to set up the kind

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Speaker 4: of government that they want to be. It's a difficult

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Speaker 4: time to navigate. We've got a cost of living crisis.

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Speaker 4: We also have some difficult pressures on the budget, which

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Speaker 4: will come to in a moment. It means the government

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Speaker 4: has a bit of a balancing act between I guess

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Speaker 4: it's ambition to do a whole bunch of different things

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Speaker 4: and some harsher economic realities. So it's a really really

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Speaker 4: interesting challenge for the new government and one that yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think I am actually even more excited than I

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Speaker 4: always am for budgets are. This is a big one.

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Speaker 2: I think it makes sense when you explain the context

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Speaker 2: in which this budget is being handed down, And I

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Speaker 2: guess a big part of Budget Night comes down to two.

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Speaker 2: It's surplus or deficit. Tom, what do you think the

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Speaker 2: feeling is going into this budget? Yes, Surplus and deficit

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Speaker 2: are the two words that probably put many people to

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Speaker 2: sleep when they hear them. They are important.

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Speaker 4: I guess. I spoke at the beginning about how the

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Speaker 4: budget has a whole bunch of little small picture things

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Speaker 4: that add up to one big picture. Will surplus and

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Speaker 4: deficit are really the big picture? They are this question

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Speaker 4: of how much is the government spending and raising overall?

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Speaker 4: And right now we are spending more than we take

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Speaker 4: in tax, which means that we are in a deficit.

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Speaker 4: So in twenty twenty two to twenty three, just to

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Speaker 4: kind of set the scene a little bit, the government

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Speaker 4: is spending six hundred and fifty billion dollars. Then on

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Speaker 4: the other side of the ledger, the government is raising

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Speaker 4: six hundred and seven billion dollars in tax, So six

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Speaker 4: hundred and fifty six hundred and seven and about half

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Speaker 4: of that comes from individuals, so from the income tax

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Speaker 4: that we pay, some of it comes from companies. There's

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Speaker 4: a variety of different sources that the government raises its money.

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Speaker 4: But I guess the key thing there is six hundred

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Speaker 4: and fifty is bigger number than six hundred and seven.

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Speaker 4: Our budget is in deficit and it's been that way

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Speaker 4: for about fifteen years and it's expected to continue to

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Speaker 4: be that way. And the way that you fill that

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Speaker 4: gap when you're in a deficit, you're spending more than

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Speaker 4: you're taking up in tax. You fill that gap by

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Speaker 4: borrowing money by taking on debt. And Australia, I mean

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Speaker 4: every government in the world has some debt. Australia currently

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Speaker 4: has about a trillion and has been taking on significant

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Speaker 4: amounts in recent years. Now. A trillion's a big, scary

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Speaker 4: sounding number. That doesn't mean a heap. The most important

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Speaker 4: number really is how much interest do you have to

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Speaker 4: pay when you repay that money? And that answer. At

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Speaker 4: the moment, we're paying about fourteen billion dollars a year,

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Speaker 4: So I guess if you go back fourteen out of

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Speaker 4: six hundred and fifty, it's a small chunk that we

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Speaker 4: were paying for our debt. But it's getting bigger and bigger.

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Speaker 4: The cost of our debt is becoming more expensive. So

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Speaker 4: that's a really important bit of context for this budget.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to guess how many zeros are in

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Speaker 2: a trillion because I haven't done maths in a long time,

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Speaker 2: but when I hear numbers like that, it can be scary.

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Speaker 2: But I guess on the flip side of that, the

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Speaker 2: government needs money to be able to do things, to

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Speaker 2: help people and build things, and you know, whatever else

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Speaker 2: the government is doing.

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Speaker 3: So how much of a problem is this debt?

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Speaker 4: I think I'd say it's a looming problem. Debt's not

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Speaker 4: a dirty word, right, So again I said before, like

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Speaker 4: literally every government in the world has some debt at

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Speaker 4: all times. That's just kind of the way it works.

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Speaker 4: And it's a when you think about a business, I mean,

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Speaker 4: you're a business owner, Zara the phrase you've got to

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Speaker 4: spend money to make money. It's kind of the same

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Speaker 4: principle that the government's use right, So you when you

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Speaker 4: take on debt, you're unlocking the ability to spend a

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Speaker 4: little bit more today, and if you spend that wisely

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Speaker 4: in ways that grow your business, grow an economy, then

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Speaker 4: it's no problem repaying that in future with interest. So

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Speaker 4: debt can be really useful if it helps to make

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Speaker 4: a country richer, and a country like Australia, which is

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Speaker 4: already a very wealthy country, has generally a pretty good reputation.

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Speaker 4: We can borrow fairly cheaply, fairly low interest. Debt is

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Speaker 4: a really useful tool in a sense we would be

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Speaker 4: leaving money on the table if we didn't have any debt.

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Speaker 4: But again the question comes back to, well how expensive

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Speaker 4: is the interest on that debt? And I think the

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Speaker 4: looming problem is when we have fifteen years where we've

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Speaker 4: been taking on more and more, and when you look

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Speaker 4: ahead and there's heaps and heaps more pressure to keep

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Speaker 4: spending on a whole bunch of different things, then that

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Speaker 4: might start to build up to a problem. So we're

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Speaker 4: getting older, we're living longer. That's wonderful, but it means

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Speaker 4: that our healthcare and our age care needs are greater,

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Speaker 4: they cost more money. We are starting as a country,

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Speaker 4: as a society to look to things that we didn't

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Speaker 4: used to have, like disability care, more support for childcare,

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Speaker 4: nuclear powered submarines, various things that for various reasons governments

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Speaker 4: and public have decided that we want to spend money on.

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Speaker 4: There are all of these pressures, and so at some

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Speaker 4: point if our answer to pay for all of those

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Speaker 4: things continues to be debt, then that cost will start

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Speaker 4: to become more difficult to bear and put a bigger

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Speaker 4: burden on future tax payers.

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Speaker 2: I think that when you set it out in those

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Speaker 2: conceptual terms, it all makes sense and it clearly is

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Speaker 2: a balancing act. But then when you're back in reality

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Speaker 2: and the fact that we are facing a cost of

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Speaker 2: living crisis and that you know, people are struggling to

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Speaker 2: get by. When they hear that, are they hearing that

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Speaker 2: the government is then going to cut spending? Is that

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Speaker 2: what follows.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's a really interesting question that will be answered

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Speaker 4: this week. And I think the message that the government

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Speaker 4: has given is that they aren't to use their word,

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Speaker 4: that they aren't going to be as generous as they

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Speaker 4: would like to be. I think it was sort of

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Speaker 4: best summed up by Katie Yallaha, the Finance Minister a

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Speaker 4: month ago, who sort of said in an interview, I

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Speaker 4: have a heart, but I also have a hard edge.

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Speaker 4: I think those are the two kind of narratives that

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Speaker 4: the government is trying to play off. How do you

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Speaker 4: appear hard edged without appearing hardhearted at the same time.

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Speaker 4: And it's going to be really fascinating to see exactly

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Speaker 4: what that looks like in their minds. So, for example,

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Speaker 4: heaps of pressure, as we've talked about on the podcast before,

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Speaker 4: to increase the job seeker unemployment payment. Currently that's under

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Speaker 4: fifty dollars a day for a single person with no kids.

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Speaker 4: It's fallen well below the poverty line. The government's own

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Speaker 4: expert panel called for a significant increase. We're not going

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Speaker 4: to get that, the government has said, but there's some

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Speaker 4: suggestion that we might get sort of an increase for

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Speaker 4: older Australians only there might be some other things like

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Speaker 4: power bill relief, cheaper medicine, something that was discussed on

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Speaker 4: the pod last week, maybe some sort of support for renters.

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Speaker 4: There are a few things the government has signaled that

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Speaker 4: will consider, but clearly has been downplaying the amount of

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Speaker 4: support it intends to give in this broader budget context.

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Speaker 2: Tom, when you first started working at the Daily Os,

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Speaker 2: you told me something and I hope I'm misquoting it

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Speaker 2: here about the difference between when there's an M and

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Speaker 2: a B in an announcement. Can you take our whole

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Speaker 2: audience through what you taught me about the difference between

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Speaker 2: millions and billions in a budget announcement?

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Speaker 4: So my M and B rule is, when you're looking

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Speaker 4: at numbers on budget night and there are plenty of them,

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Speaker 4: if it's a million, that's a small number, and if

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Speaker 4: it's a billion that's a big number. That just gives

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Speaker 4: you some context because all these millions and millions can

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Speaker 4: be a little bit difficult to put into any context.

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Speaker 4: So that's my neat little rule of thumb. I'd forgotten

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Speaker 4: that I said that, desirabath, but I guess that that

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Speaker 4: is a broader invitation to say that budgets are You know,

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Speaker 4: there will be so many different little headlines on budget Night.

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Speaker 4: There will be I guess, if you like a shopping

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Speaker 4: list of all the different things the government is spending

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Speaker 4: its money on some millions and some billions, but there's

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Speaker 4: also a bigger picture and I think one of the

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Speaker 4: hardest things on Budget Night, but also one of the

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Speaker 4: reasons why Budget Night I think is a really important

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Speaker 4: night is because, yeah, you see all these little things

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Speaker 4: on the shopping list, but you can also step back

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Speaker 4: and view the budget as a whole. As I said

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Speaker 4: at the beginning of the pot, I think Budget Night's

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Speaker 4: a really important night. And my advice would be there

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Speaker 4: will be a lot of expectation management and a lot

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Speaker 4: of a flurry of words and language from the government.

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Speaker 4: I would say, step back and try and view the

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Speaker 4: budget as a whole and look at these questions about overall,

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Speaker 4: which direction is the government seeking to take us.

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Speaker 2: I think that's very good advice. I mean, I've been

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Speaker 2: around politics for a number of years and budgets still

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Speaker 2: terrify me, and seeing that many numbers on a page

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Speaker 2: still terrifies me. So I'm lucky to have someone like

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Speaker 2: you around who can make sense of it all and

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Speaker 2: somehow both digest it yourself and then tell all of

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Speaker 2: us what we need to know. And you're going to

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Speaker 2: be doing that next Wednesday for us. So the budgets

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday night and then we'll be debriefing next Wednesday

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Speaker 2: with you about what we've learned from the budget. You

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Speaker 2: know how the government has gone, and so I guess

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Speaker 2: a call out to anybody listening if there is anything

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Speaker 2: that you want Tom to explain before that time. We

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Speaker 2: have got time and you can side into our DMS

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Speaker 2: and let us know what you want to learn more

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Speaker 2: about and what you're expecting from the budget. Tom, thanks

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Speaker 2: for joining us today and look forward to chatting next week.

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Speaker 4: Thanks Sarah, looking forward to it should be a big week.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for joining us on the Daily Ods this morning.

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Speaker 3: If you learned something from today's episode, don't forget to

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Speaker 3: hit subscribe so there's a TDA episode waiting for you

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Speaker 3: every morning. We'll be back again tomorrow. Until then, have

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Speaker 3: a great day.