WEBVTT - Your guide to the U.S. Election

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this is the Daily This is the Daily OS. Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>now it makes sense. Good morning, and welcome to the

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<v Speaker 1>Daily OS. It is Wednesday, the sixth of November. I'm Billy,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Zara. As this podcast episode goes out this morning,

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<v Speaker 1>millions of people in the US are voting for the

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<v Speaker 1>country's next president. They're choosing between Kamala Harris from the

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<v Speaker 1>Democrats and Donald Trump from the Republican Party. Zara, I

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<v Speaker 1>cannot believe we are finally here.

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<v Speaker 2>You've never heard a topic spoken about more in the Leader,

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<v Speaker 2>but we are finally here.

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<v Speaker 1>It has been a dramatic run up to this.

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<v Speaker 3>Election, it sure has.

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<v Speaker 2>And I mean it's not even the end, it's almost

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<v Speaker 2>just the beginning.

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<v Speaker 1>It's only just starting.

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<v Speaker 2>So today we're going to go through some of the

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<v Speaker 2>key questions that you might find yourself wondering. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>it's firstly just a completely different system to be getting

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<v Speaker 2>our head around, but also the timing and when we'll

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<v Speaker 2>know things like there are just so many things to understand.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think that it's moments like this that lend

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<v Speaker 2>itself to tda's core. It's us just cutting through the noise.

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<v Speaker 2>You don't need to read and listen to every single

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<v Speaker 2>thing out there. We're going to give you the information

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<v Speaker 2>you need to know. And so, Billy, let's just start small.

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<v Speaker 2>How does the voting system work in the US?

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<v Speaker 1>Great one to start, I think, especially for us here

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<v Speaker 1>in Australia where our systems are so different.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously, just to start, in the US, you are voting

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<v Speaker 1>for a person to be the leader. In Australia you're

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<v Speaker 1>voting for a party to lead the country, and then

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<v Speaker 1>from that the leader comes from it. Another key difference

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<v Speaker 1>is that voting is not compulsory in the US, whereas

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<v Speaker 1>here in Australia you will get fined if you do

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<v Speaker 1>not vote, which is why big focus for candidates is

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<v Speaker 1>to actually convince people to vote at all. In Australia,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't have that problem.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And it's just such a big and stark difference

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<v Speaker 2>that not only do you have to go out there

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<v Speaker 2>and convince voters of why you should be elected, but

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<v Speaker 2>you actually have to go step back and say no,

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<v Speaker 2>you should be involved in this process. Yes, do we

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<v Speaker 2>understand how many people tend to go out and vote.

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<v Speaker 1>So in twenty twenty it was just over sixty percent

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<v Speaker 1>of the voting age population who voted, so that's over

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred million people. Their size is so big. And

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<v Speaker 1>one thing to note is that obviously we're talking about

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<v Speaker 1>this on a Wednesday. We are right in the middle

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<v Speaker 1>of a week, and that's because US elections are always

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<v Speaker 1>held on a Tuesday, when, of course most people are

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<v Speaker 1>at work, So it's not on a Saturday like it

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<v Speaker 1>is here, where you can just roll up to your local.

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<v Speaker 3>School character democracy sausage and call it a day.

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<v Speaker 1>You have to, you know, literally leave work. A lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people will have to get leave in order to vote.

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<v Speaker 1>And the reason for this is because in eighteen forty five,

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<v Speaker 1>a law was passed to set the national election day

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<v Speaker 1>on the first Tuesday of November every four years.

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<v Speaker 2>And that takes out the power, for example, that the

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<v Speaker 2>minister here has in that he can decide if he

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<v Speaker 2>wants to call an early election things aren't going too

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<v Speaker 2>well for him or her, they can call an early election.

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<v Speaker 3>That's not possible in the US. We're looking at a

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<v Speaker 3>completely different scenario.

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<v Speaker 1>No, it's always on the first Tuesday of November every

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<v Speaker 1>four years. And the reason for it being on a

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<v Speaker 1>Tuesday is because, again in eighteen forty five, which is

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<v Speaker 1>nearly two hundred years ago. Now, many Americans were farmers

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<v Speaker 1>who lived at least a day's commute away from their

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<v Speaker 1>nearest polling station, and so for a few different reasons,

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<v Speaker 1>it was decided that Tuesday was the most convenient day

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<v Speaker 1>to suit the average farmers schedule. Obviously, demographics have changed

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<v Speaker 1>a lot, and what an average person in the US's

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<v Speaker 1>day looks like is very different. But that doesn't mean

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<v Speaker 1>that they've changed their voting system.

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<v Speaker 3>It's incredible.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, So it's not compulsory to vote, and you're voting

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<v Speaker 2>on a Tuesday. Those are two big differences. But then

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<v Speaker 2>I'd say the bigger conversation here is about how the

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<v Speaker 2>voting system actually works in the US. Talk me through

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<v Speaker 2>the electoral College.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So I'll start by saying how it's not done

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<v Speaker 1>and it's not chosen by popular vote. So the president

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<v Speaker 1>isn't chosen by the person who wins the most votes

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<v Speaker 1>across the country. In fact, very famously, in twenty sixteen,

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<v Speaker 1>Hillary Clinton did win more votes across the nation compared

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<v Speaker 1>to Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>On just raw numbers alone, just raw numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it was something like three million more votes

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<v Speaker 1>that Hillary Clinton received compared to Donald Trump, but it

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<v Speaker 1>was because of how the system works, which is called

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<v Speaker 1>the electoral college system, that she did not end up

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<v Speaker 1>winning the presidency.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, so talk me through the college system.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So what you need to know is that there

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<v Speaker 1>are five hundred and thirty eight electoral college votes available,

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<v Speaker 1>and each US state gets a specific number of electoral votes,

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<v Speaker 1>depending roughly on its population size. So, for example, California

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<v Speaker 1>has the most electric college votes with fifty four, and

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<v Speaker 1>then less populated states like Alaska they only have three. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's different for every state. Whoever gets the most

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<v Speaker 1>votes from a state's population wins all of that states

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<v Speaker 1>electoral votes, which are then cast in the electoral college.

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<v Speaker 2>So half of California's electoral college vote can't go to

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<v Speaker 2>one candidate and half go to the other. They would

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<v Speaker 2>all go to Kamala Harris or all go to Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>That will go to Kamala Harris.

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<v Speaker 1>Just by nature exactly. So let's say sixty percent of

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<v Speaker 1>California voted for Kamala Harris and forty percent voted for

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump. That doesn't mean that sixty percent of California's

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<v Speaker 1>electoral votes goes to Kamala Harris. It means that one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred percent of California's fifty four electoral votes goes to

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris.

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<v Speaker 2>Which is a lot of votes that you're looking for,

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<v Speaker 2>those kind of big ticket votes.

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<v Speaker 1>And now to be elected president, the candidate needs a

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<v Speaker 1>majority of two hundred and seventy electoral votes. So that

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<v Speaker 1>is the magic number. If you see one thing today,

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to be two hundred and seventy. Everyone is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be talking about that number. And just a

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<v Speaker 1>note on how I got to that two seventy. So,

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<v Speaker 1>like I said, there are the five hundred and thirty

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<v Speaker 1>eight electoral College votes, you divide that by two, which

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<v Speaker 1>is two hundred and sixty nine, and then you need

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<v Speaker 1>one more to reach your majority, which is two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and seventy.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we get our heads across that Maths equation. We're

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<v Speaker 2>just going to take a quick break for today's sponsor.

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<v Speaker 2>I just want to pick up on something we were

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<v Speaker 2>talking about before you talked to me through your Math's

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<v Speaker 2>equation that I completely zoned out for. We were talking

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<v Speaker 2>there about California, and I intimated that that will almost

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred percent end up going to Kamla Harris. Because

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<v Speaker 2>we know it's a blue state, and that just means

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<v Speaker 2>that it has overwhelmingly always backed a Democrat aligned candidate.

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<v Speaker 1>Can I just pick up on something there? You said

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<v Speaker 1>a blue state. One thing to also know today is

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<v Speaker 1>that blue is Democrats and red is Republican.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly, good point. So can you talk to me

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<v Speaker 2>a bit about these safe states?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So essentially, when we are talking about a safe state,

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<v Speaker 1>we are saying that we have a very good understanding

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<v Speaker 1>of how that state is going to vote, and that

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<v Speaker 1>is most states. So most states lean so strongly Republican

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<v Speaker 1>or Democrats that it's hardly a contest. So, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>the state of Wyoming hasn't voted for a Democratic president

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<v Speaker 1>since nineteen sixty four, so basically sixty years. And so

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris has not spent any time holding rallies in

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<v Speaker 1>Wyoming because that's just considered a waste of her time.

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<v Speaker 2>Because it's almost entirely set to go to Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems way too unlikely, and so there's no point

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<v Speaker 1>her spending any time there. Now, if Harris and Trump

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<v Speaker 1>both win all of the states that are considered pretty safe,

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<v Speaker 1>then Harris will have two hundred and twenty six electoral

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<v Speaker 1>College votes and Donald Trump has two hundred and nineteen,

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<v Speaker 1>and reminder, they need to get to two seventy. So

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris two hundred and twenty six, Donald Trump two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and nineteen.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, And so I imagine that's where the swing states

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<v Speaker 2>come into the equation exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>So, swing states are those that have switched between voting

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<v Speaker 1>Republican and Democrat at recent elections. Usually every US election

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<v Speaker 1>there are between six to eight swing states that really

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<v Speaker 1>determine the outcome of that election. This election, there are

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<v Speaker 1>seven that have been identified, and I'm going to list

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<v Speaker 1>them because they are the states that if you're watching

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<v Speaker 1>any coverage today, you will hear a lot about these states.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.

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<v Speaker 1>Now Pennsylvania is one of the key ones because that

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<v Speaker 1>is the swing state with the most electoral college votes,

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<v Speaker 1>so they have nineteen. And now in terms of polling,

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<v Speaker 1>neither Trump or Harris are leading by more than two

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<v Speaker 1>points in any of those seven key swing states that

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<v Speaker 1>I mentioned, And so what that tells us is it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be extremely tight in those swing states and

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<v Speaker 1>that all of them are pretty much up for grabs.

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<v Speaker 2>And so what that means for all of us who

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<v Speaker 2>are going to be watching is that we can expect

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<v Speaker 2>the states like California or like Wyoming, which we've already

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<v Speaker 2>spoken about today, to fall pretty quickly and to be

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<v Speaker 2>declared pretty quickly. But then once those are all out

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<v Speaker 2>of the way, it's about where will these swing states

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<v Speaker 2>fall whose favor will they fall in, and what does

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<v Speaker 2>that mean about who can get to that magic number

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<v Speaker 2>for And so I guess my next question is when

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<v Speaker 2>are we going to know what the results is?

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<v Speaker 1>That is the million dollar question that I wish we

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<v Speaker 1>could look into a Crystal Paul and find out. What

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<v Speaker 1>we know is that the last polls closed four PM

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<v Speaker 1>our time, so Australian Eastern daylight time. The last dates

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<v Speaker 1>to have their polls closed is Alaska and Hawaii. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>historically the result has been known on the night of

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<v Speaker 1>the election, which is today in Australia, so Wednesday daytime

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<v Speaker 1>in Australia.

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<v Speaker 2>Can I just interject to say, it's so nice that

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<v Speaker 2>there's a possibility we'll have a result during the daytime

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<v Speaker 2>and not at three am. I feel like the Olympics.

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<v Speaker 2>In Paralympics really got us with those four am way yepes.

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<v Speaker 2>But if everything is clear, we could know something during

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<v Speaker 2>the day today.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we could have it during the daylight hours. I

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<v Speaker 1>remember in twenty sixteen that we did know during the

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<v Speaker 1>day on the Wednesday that Trump had won. You might remember, though,

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<v Speaker 1>that last election in twenty twenty, it took four days

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<v Speaker 1>for the final election result to be called. I remember

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<v Speaker 1>just being glued to my TV screen and I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think I had moved for four days.

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<v Speaker 3>Was that a birthday brunch? Yes, when it got called.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And so it wasn't until the Saturday, which is

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<v Speaker 1>Sunday in Australia, when you're out your brunch.

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<v Speaker 3>Zara important happy birthday, Lexi.

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<v Speaker 1>For us to know that Joe Biden had won. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>experts are predicting that the race could be just as

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<v Speaker 1>tight as it was in twenty twenty, but there have

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<v Speaker 1>been a few different changes to how the counting system

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<v Speaker 1>works in different states that could speed the process up.

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<v Speaker 1>But who knows. If it's super close, then it could

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<v Speaker 1>be days.

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<v Speaker 2>Another thing about the twenty twenty election is that it

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<v Speaker 2>was during COVID, and so we know that there were

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of votes by mail because people weren't able

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<v Speaker 2>to get out and vote. What's the difference now with

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<v Speaker 2>this election.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, in twenty twenty, there was actually an unprecedented number

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<v Speaker 1>of people who voted by mail, and that did slow

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<v Speaker 1>down the process. Like I said, a few different changes

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<v Speaker 1>have been made in different states that could now speed

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<v Speaker 1>up the process. But another thing to note is that

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<v Speaker 1>last time, we saw an early Republican swing in some

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<v Speaker 1>states before the mail in votes had been counted, and

0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:10.320
<v Speaker 1>what was then discovered is that Democrats were more likely

0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.600
<v Speaker 1>to vote by mail and that meant that the Republican

0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:16.800
<v Speaker 1>swing early on turned out to be misleading in some

0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.199
<v Speaker 1>of those states. So just something to keep an eye out.

0:11:19.240 --> 0:11:21.120
<v Speaker 1>Who knows if that will happen again this year, but

0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:24.520
<v Speaker 1>again something to keep an eye out. I think that's it.

0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:28.720
<v Speaker 1>I think that covers it. I hope it's not information overload,

0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:30.040
<v Speaker 1>But we kind of just wanted to give you a

0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:32.320
<v Speaker 1>run through of kind of the basics of the state

0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.880
<v Speaker 1>of play in the US at the moment. Zara, Before

0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:37.560
<v Speaker 1>we go, I have to ask you, I actually do know,

0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:40.200
<v Speaker 1>but I'd like you to share with the listeners exactly

0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:43.880
<v Speaker 1>your thoughts on who sele thought on who do you

0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:45.120
<v Speaker 1>think will win?

0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:49.319
<v Speaker 3>I have for a very long time believed that Donald

0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:51.200
<v Speaker 3>Trump will be the winner of this election.

0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:52.640
<v Speaker 1>Please explain I.

0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:54.600
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think that there are lots of different

0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:57.560
<v Speaker 2>things at play, but I think the biggest cohort that

0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:00.640
<v Speaker 2>perhaps isn't being spoken about as wide or I have

0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.160
<v Speaker 2>seen quite a lot of articles recently, but perhaps in

0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:07.160
<v Speaker 2>the earlier parts of the election campaign, is this group

0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:11.520
<v Speaker 2>of young, white, non college educated men, and I think

0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:14.800
<v Speaker 2>that they could turn out en mass and really lead

0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.200
<v Speaker 2>to a Trump victory. But I imagine it'll be a

0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.160
<v Speaker 2>close one, but I think he might scrape through.

0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:20.960
<v Speaker 3>What about you.

0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.320
<v Speaker 1>I have also thought that Trump would win, but I

0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.800
<v Speaker 1>think in recent weeks, and perhaps in the last month,

0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:30.760
<v Speaker 1>we have seen maybe a bit more of a shift

0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:33.960
<v Speaker 1>towards Kamala Harris. Over the weekend, we saw that in

0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:36.120
<v Speaker 1>the state of Iowa, which is not one of the

0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.840
<v Speaker 1>key swing states that we mentioned, a new poll came

0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.040
<v Speaker 1>out of there that said that Kamala Harris was actually

0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:41.560
<v Speaker 1>ahead of.

0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:42.839
<v Speaker 3>That was a bigie.

0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:46.160
<v Speaker 1>That was big news. But look, I don't think that

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.120
<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris will win Iowa, but I think that that

0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:52.160
<v Speaker 1>result could be representative of a bit of a swing

0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:56.680
<v Speaker 1>happening in the recent weeks. Again, I mean it's nothing

0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:58.080
<v Speaker 1>new to say. Who knows.

0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:00.400
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, time you go. We're hedging out, Betsy. Either way,

0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.280
<v Speaker 3>we will be one hundred percent correct. Either way.

0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:05.760
<v Speaker 2>We will be back again tomorrow and we'll bring you

0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:08.280
<v Speaker 2>all the updates and all the news you need to know.

0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:11.200
<v Speaker 2>You can follow along on our Instagram page, sign up

0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:13.800
<v Speaker 2>to our newsletter, or find us here on the podcast

0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:16.440
<v Speaker 2>strap In. It's going to be a big couple of days,

0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:18.080
<v Speaker 2>but we are here to take you through it.

0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 3>Thanks for your support. We'll chat to you again tomorrow.

0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:25.520
<v Speaker 1>My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 1>Bungelung Caalcutin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges

0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:32.760
<v Speaker 1>that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:36.360
<v Speaker 1>Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres

0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.280
<v Speaker 1>Strain island and nations. We pay our respects to the

0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:42.080
<v Speaker 1>first peoples of these countries, both past and present.