Speaker 1: Already and this is the Daily This is the Daily OS. Oh,
Speaker 1: now it makes sense. Good morning, and welcome to the
Speaker 1: Daily OS. It is Wednesday, the sixth of November. I'm Billy,
Speaker 1: I'm Zara. As this podcast episode goes out this morning,
Speaker 1: millions of people in the US are voting for the
Speaker 1: country's next president. They're choosing between Kamala Harris from the
Speaker 1: Democrats and Donald Trump from the Republican Party. Zara, I
Speaker 1: cannot believe we are finally here.
Speaker 2: You've never heard a topic spoken about more in the Leader,
Speaker 2: but we are finally here.
Speaker 1: It has been a dramatic run up to this.
Speaker 3: Election, it sure has.
Speaker 2: And I mean it's not even the end, it's almost
Speaker 2: just the beginning.
Speaker 1: It's only just starting.
Speaker 2: So today we're going to go through some of the
Speaker 2: key questions that you might find yourself wondering. You know,
Speaker 2: it's firstly just a completely different system to be getting
Speaker 2: our head around, but also the timing and when we'll
Speaker 2: know things like there are just so many things to understand.
Speaker 2: And I think that it's moments like this that lend
Speaker 2: itself to tda's core. It's us just cutting through the noise.
Speaker 2: You don't need to read and listen to every single
Speaker 2: thing out there. We're going to give you the information
Speaker 2: you need to know. And so, Billy, let's just start small.
Speaker 2: How does the voting system work in the US?
Speaker 1: Great one to start, I think, especially for us here
Speaker 1: in Australia where our systems are so different.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Obviously, just to start, in the US, you are voting
Speaker 1: for a person to be the leader. In Australia you're
Speaker 1: voting for a party to lead the country, and then
Speaker 1: from that the leader comes from it. Another key difference
Speaker 1: is that voting is not compulsory in the US, whereas
Speaker 1: here in Australia you will get fined if you do
Speaker 1: not vote, which is why big focus for candidates is
Speaker 1: to actually convince people to vote at all. In Australia,
Speaker 1: we don't have that problem.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's just such a big and stark difference
Speaker 2: that not only do you have to go out there
Speaker 2: and convince voters of why you should be elected, but
Speaker 2: you actually have to go step back and say no,
Speaker 2: you should be involved in this process. Yes, do we
Speaker 2: understand how many people tend to go out and vote.
Speaker 1: So in twenty twenty it was just over sixty percent
Speaker 1: of the voting age population who voted, so that's over
Speaker 1: one hundred million people. Their size is so big. And
Speaker 1: one thing to note is that obviously we're talking about
Speaker 1: this on a Wednesday. We are right in the middle
Speaker 1: of a week, and that's because US elections are always
Speaker 1: held on a Tuesday, when, of course most people are
Speaker 1: at work, So it's not on a Saturday like it
Speaker 1: is here, where you can just roll up to your local.
Speaker 3: School character democracy sausage and call it a day.
Speaker 1: You have to, you know, literally leave work. A lot
Speaker 1: of people will have to get leave in order to vote.
Speaker 1: And the reason for this is because in eighteen forty five,
Speaker 1: a law was passed to set the national election day
Speaker 1: on the first Tuesday of November every four years.
Speaker 2: And that takes out the power, for example, that the
Speaker 2: minister here has in that he can decide if he
Speaker 2: wants to call an early election things aren't going too
Speaker 2: well for him or her, they can call an early election.
Speaker 3: That's not possible in the US. We're looking at a
Speaker 3: completely different scenario.
Speaker 1: No, it's always on the first Tuesday of November every
Speaker 1: four years. And the reason for it being on a
Speaker 1: Tuesday is because, again in eighteen forty five, which is
Speaker 1: nearly two hundred years ago. Now, many Americans were farmers
Speaker 1: who lived at least a day's commute away from their
Speaker 1: nearest polling station, and so for a few different reasons,
Speaker 1: it was decided that Tuesday was the most convenient day
Speaker 1: to suit the average farmers schedule. Obviously, demographics have changed
Speaker 1: a lot, and what an average person in the US's
Speaker 1: day looks like is very different. But that doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that they've changed their voting system.
Speaker 3: It's incredible.
Speaker 2: Okay, So it's not compulsory to vote, and you're voting
Speaker 2: on a Tuesday. Those are two big differences. But then
Speaker 2: I'd say the bigger conversation here is about how the
Speaker 2: voting system actually works in the US. Talk me through
Speaker 2: the electoral College.
Speaker 1: Okay, So I'll start by saying how it's not done
Speaker 1: and it's not chosen by popular vote. So the president
Speaker 1: isn't chosen by the person who wins the most votes
Speaker 1: across the country. In fact, very famously, in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton did win more votes across the nation compared
Speaker 1: to Trump.
Speaker 3: On just raw numbers alone, just raw numbers.
Speaker 1: I think it was something like three million more votes
Speaker 1: that Hillary Clinton received compared to Donald Trump, but it
Speaker 1: was because of how the system works, which is called
Speaker 1: the electoral college system, that she did not end up
Speaker 1: winning the presidency.
Speaker 3: Okay, so talk me through the college system.
Speaker 1: Okay, So what you need to know is that there
Speaker 1: are five hundred and thirty eight electoral college votes available,
Speaker 1: and each US state gets a specific number of electoral votes,
Speaker 1: depending roughly on its population size. So, for example, California
Speaker 1: has the most electric college votes with fifty four, and
Speaker 1: then less populated states like Alaska they only have three. Okay,
Speaker 1: and it's different for every state. Whoever gets the most
Speaker 1: votes from a state's population wins all of that states
Speaker 1: electoral votes, which are then cast in the electoral college.
Speaker 2: So half of California's electoral college vote can't go to
Speaker 2: one candidate and half go to the other. They would
Speaker 2: all go to Kamala Harris or all go to Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: That will go to Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1: Just by nature exactly. So let's say sixty percent of
Speaker 1: California voted for Kamala Harris and forty percent voted for
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. That doesn't mean that sixty percent of California's
Speaker 1: electoral votes goes to Kamala Harris. It means that one
Speaker 1: hundred percent of California's fifty four electoral votes goes to
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2: Which is a lot of votes that you're looking for,
Speaker 2: those kind of big ticket votes.
Speaker 1: And now to be elected president, the candidate needs a
Speaker 1: majority of two hundred and seventy electoral votes. So that
Speaker 1: is the magic number. If you see one thing today,
Speaker 1: it's going to be two hundred and seventy. Everyone is
Speaker 1: going to be talking about that number. And just a
Speaker 1: note on how I got to that two seventy. So,
Speaker 1: like I said, there are the five hundred and thirty
Speaker 1: eight electoral College votes, you divide that by two, which
Speaker 1: is two hundred and sixty nine, and then you need
Speaker 1: one more to reach your majority, which is two hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy.
Speaker 2: Well, we get our heads across that Maths equation. We're
Speaker 2: just going to take a quick break for today's sponsor.
Speaker 2: I just want to pick up on something we were
Speaker 2: talking about before you talked to me through your Math's
Speaker 2: equation that I completely zoned out for. We were talking
Speaker 2: there about California, and I intimated that that will almost
Speaker 2: one hundred percent end up going to Kamla Harris. Because
Speaker 2: we know it's a blue state, and that just means
Speaker 2: that it has overwhelmingly always backed a Democrat aligned candidate.
Speaker 1: Can I just pick up on something there? You said
Speaker 1: a blue state. One thing to also know today is
Speaker 1: that blue is Democrats and red is Republican.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, good point. So can you talk to me
Speaker 2: a bit about these safe states?
Speaker 1: Yeah, So essentially, when we are talking about a safe state,
Speaker 1: we are saying that we have a very good understanding
Speaker 1: of how that state is going to vote, and that
Speaker 1: is most states. So most states lean so strongly Republican
Speaker 1: or Democrats that it's hardly a contest. So, for example,
Speaker 1: the state of Wyoming hasn't voted for a Democratic president
Speaker 1: since nineteen sixty four, so basically sixty years. And so
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris has not spent any time holding rallies in
Speaker 1: Wyoming because that's just considered a waste of her time.
Speaker 2: Because it's almost entirely set to go to Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: Exactly.
Speaker 1: It seems way too unlikely, and so there's no point
Speaker 1: her spending any time there. Now, if Harris and Trump
Speaker 1: both win all of the states that are considered pretty safe,
Speaker 1: then Harris will have two hundred and twenty six electoral
Speaker 1: College votes and Donald Trump has two hundred and nineteen,
Speaker 1: and reminder, they need to get to two seventy. So
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris two hundred and twenty six, Donald Trump two
Speaker 1: hundred and nineteen.
Speaker 2: Okay, And so I imagine that's where the swing states
Speaker 2: come into the equation exactly.
Speaker 1: So, swing states are those that have switched between voting
Speaker 1: Republican and Democrat at recent elections. Usually every US election
Speaker 1: there are between six to eight swing states that really
Speaker 1: determine the outcome of that election. This election, there are
Speaker 1: seven that have been identified, and I'm going to list
Speaker 1: them because they are the states that if you're watching
Speaker 1: any coverage today, you will hear a lot about these states.
Speaker 1: So there's Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.
Speaker 1: Now Pennsylvania is one of the key ones because that
Speaker 1: is the swing state with the most electoral college votes,
Speaker 1: so they have nineteen. And now in terms of polling,
Speaker 1: neither Trump or Harris are leading by more than two
Speaker 1: points in any of those seven key swing states that
Speaker 1: I mentioned, And so what that tells us is it's
Speaker 1: going to be extremely tight in those swing states and
Speaker 1: that all of them are pretty much up for grabs.
Speaker 2: And so what that means for all of us who
Speaker 2: are going to be watching is that we can expect
Speaker 2: the states like California or like Wyoming, which we've already
Speaker 2: spoken about today, to fall pretty quickly and to be
Speaker 2: declared pretty quickly. But then once those are all out
Speaker 2: of the way, it's about where will these swing states
Speaker 2: fall whose favor will they fall in, and what does
Speaker 2: that mean about who can get to that magic number
Speaker 2: for And so I guess my next question is when
Speaker 2: are we going to know what the results is?
Speaker 1: That is the million dollar question that I wish we
Speaker 1: could look into a Crystal Paul and find out. What
Speaker 1: we know is that the last polls closed four PM
Speaker 1: our time, so Australian Eastern daylight time. The last dates
Speaker 1: to have their polls closed is Alaska and Hawaii. Now,
Speaker 1: historically the result has been known on the night of
Speaker 1: the election, which is today in Australia, so Wednesday daytime
Speaker 1: in Australia.
Speaker 2: Can I just interject to say, it's so nice that
Speaker 2: there's a possibility we'll have a result during the daytime
Speaker 2: and not at three am. I feel like the Olympics.
Speaker 2: In Paralympics really got us with those four am way yepes.
Speaker 2: But if everything is clear, we could know something during
Speaker 2: the day today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we could have it during the daylight hours. I
Speaker 1: remember in twenty sixteen that we did know during the
Speaker 1: day on the Wednesday that Trump had won. You might remember, though,
Speaker 1: that last election in twenty twenty, it took four days
Speaker 1: for the final election result to be called. I remember
Speaker 1: just being glued to my TV screen and I don't
Speaker 1: think I had moved for four days.
Speaker 3: Was that a birthday brunch? Yes, when it got called.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And so it wasn't until the Saturday, which is
Speaker 1: Sunday in Australia, when you're out your brunch.
Speaker 3: Zara important happy birthday, Lexi.
Speaker 1: For us to know that Joe Biden had won. Now,
Speaker 1: experts are predicting that the race could be just as
Speaker 1: tight as it was in twenty twenty, but there have
Speaker 1: been a few different changes to how the counting system
Speaker 1: works in different states that could speed the process up.
Speaker 1: But who knows. If it's super close, then it could
Speaker 1: be days.
Speaker 2: Another thing about the twenty twenty election is that it
Speaker 2: was during COVID, and so we know that there were
Speaker 2: a lot of votes by mail because people weren't able
Speaker 2: to get out and vote. What's the difference now with
Speaker 2: this election.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in twenty twenty, there was actually an unprecedented number
Speaker 1: of people who voted by mail, and that did slow
Speaker 1: down the process. Like I said, a few different changes
Speaker 1: have been made in different states that could now speed
Speaker 1: up the process. But another thing to note is that
Speaker 1: last time, we saw an early Republican swing in some
Speaker 1: states before the mail in votes had been counted, and
Speaker 1: what was then discovered is that Democrats were more likely
Speaker 1: to vote by mail and that meant that the Republican
Speaker 1: swing early on turned out to be misleading in some
Speaker 1: of those states. So just something to keep an eye out.
Speaker 1: Who knows if that will happen again this year, but
Speaker 1: again something to keep an eye out. I think that's it.
Speaker 1: I think that covers it. I hope it's not information overload,
Speaker 1: But we kind of just wanted to give you a
Speaker 1: run through of kind of the basics of the state
Speaker 1: of play in the US at the moment. Zara, Before
Speaker 1: we go, I have to ask you, I actually do know,
Speaker 1: but I'd like you to share with the listeners exactly
Speaker 1: your thoughts on who sele thought on who do you
Speaker 1: think will win?
Speaker 3: I have for a very long time believed that Donald
Speaker 3: Trump will be the winner of this election.
Speaker 1: Please explain I.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that there are lots of different
Speaker 2: things at play, but I think the biggest cohort that
Speaker 2: perhaps isn't being spoken about as wide or I have
Speaker 2: seen quite a lot of articles recently, but perhaps in
Speaker 2: the earlier parts of the election campaign, is this group
Speaker 2: of young, white, non college educated men, and I think
Speaker 2: that they could turn out en mass and really lead
Speaker 2: to a Trump victory. But I imagine it'll be a
Speaker 2: close one, but I think he might scrape through.
Speaker 3: What about you.
Speaker 1: I have also thought that Trump would win, but I
Speaker 1: think in recent weeks, and perhaps in the last month,
Speaker 1: we have seen maybe a bit more of a shift
Speaker 1: towards Kamala Harris. Over the weekend, we saw that in
Speaker 1: the state of Iowa, which is not one of the
Speaker 1: key swing states that we mentioned, a new poll came
Speaker 1: out of there that said that Kamala Harris was actually
Speaker 1: ahead of.
Speaker 3: That was a bigie.
Speaker 1: That was big news. But look, I don't think that
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris will win Iowa, but I think that that
Speaker 1: result could be representative of a bit of a swing
Speaker 1: happening in the recent weeks. Again, I mean it's nothing
Speaker 1: new to say. Who knows.
Speaker 3: Yeah, time you go. We're hedging out, Betsy. Either way,
Speaker 3: we will be one hundred percent correct. Either way.
Speaker 2: We will be back again tomorrow and we'll bring you
Speaker 2: all the updates and all the news you need to know.
Speaker 2: You can follow along on our Instagram page, sign up
Speaker 2: to our newsletter, or find us here on the podcast
Speaker 2: strap In. It's going to be a big couple of days,
Speaker 2: but we are here to take you through it.
Speaker 3: Thanks for your support. We'll chat to you again tomorrow.
Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda
Speaker 1: Bungelung Caalcutin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges
Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the
Speaker 1: Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres
Speaker 1: Strain island and nations. We pay our respects to the
Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.