WEBVTT - Why Barnaby Joyce quit the Nationals

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this is this is the Daily This is

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<v Speaker 1>the Daily OS. Oh, now it makes sense.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Friday,

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<v Speaker 2>the twenty eighth of November. I'm Sam Kazlowski.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Billy fitz Simon's.

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<v Speaker 2>Late yesterday, former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce stood up

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<v Speaker 2>in the House of Representatives and announced he is leaving

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<v Speaker 2>his current political party, the Nationals, after thirty years of membership.

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<v Speaker 2>It comes after months of speculation about a move and

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<v Speaker 2>could have major implications for the strength of the current

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<v Speaker 2>coalition opposition and the longer term success of the Nationals

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<v Speaker 2>in some really key regional parts of Australia. On today's podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to break down who Barnaby Joyce is, why

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<v Speaker 2>he's made this announcement, and what it could all mean

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<v Speaker 2>for the balance of power in Canberra on the last

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<v Speaker 2>sitting day of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Sam Barnaby Joyce, I think is a very recognizable name

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<v Speaker 1>in Australian politics. He has been around politics for a

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<v Speaker 1>very long time. But for anyone who isn't familiar with him,

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<v Speaker 1>what do we need to know about him?

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<v Speaker 2>So Barnaby Joyce has been the MP for New England,

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<v Speaker 2>which is a seat in the lower House in northern

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<v Speaker 2>New South Wales since twenty thirteen. Before that, he was

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<v Speaker 2>a Senator for Queensland, and in twenty sixteen he became

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<v Speaker 2>the leader of the National Party and he also became

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<v Speaker 2>Deputy Prime Minister under Malcolm Turnbull. So he had that

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<v Speaker 2>job until twenty eighteen when he stepped down after a

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<v Speaker 2>personal relationship with his former staffer became public.

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<v Speaker 1>If anyone's heard of the Bonk Ban, I'm saying that

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<v Speaker 1>in quotation marks in Canberra. It came about in twenty

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen after this relationship that he had with his former

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<v Speaker 1>staffer came to light, and it is a band that

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<v Speaker 1>still stands that politicians cannot have intimate relationships with their staffers.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and I think from that point in twenty eighteen

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<v Speaker 2>he really has taken kind of a back seat and

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<v Speaker 2>quite literally been on the back bench of his party,

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<v Speaker 2>partly because of all of the personal dramas that have

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<v Speaker 2>surrounded his political career. So he hasn't really had a

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<v Speaker 2>senior role in any of the kind of key portfolios

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<v Speaker 2>over the last couple of years, but nonetheless is a

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<v Speaker 2>very influential figure of Australian politics and particularly of conservative

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<v Speaker 2>politics in this country.

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<v Speaker 1>And so throughout his whole time in politics up until now,

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<v Speaker 1>he has been part of the National Party. If anyone's

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<v Speaker 1>just getting across the National Party, give us some very

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<v Speaker 1>quick context. What actually is the National Party.

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<v Speaker 2>So they're the party that represents the interests of rural

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<v Speaker 2>and regional Australians. Federally, they have this formal alliance with

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberal Party and together they're called the Coalition. There's

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<v Speaker 2>actually three parties in the coalition because there's the Liberal

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<v Speaker 2>National Party of Queensland. But at a top line, the

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<v Speaker 2>coalition is the Liberals and the Nationals. So when the

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<v Speaker 2>Coalition wins government like they did under you know, Malcolm

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<v Speaker 2>Turbule or Scott Morrison, the Nationals leader usually becomes the

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<v Speaker 2>Deputy prime Minister as part of that coalition agreement. And

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<v Speaker 2>so right now the Nationals are led by David little Proud,

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<v Speaker 2>who you're sitting down with next week, and Joyce leaving

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<v Speaker 2>Little Proud's party is a really big deal because he

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<v Speaker 2>isn't just a backbencher, he is a former leader. He's

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<v Speaker 2>a former Deputy Prime minister. So it's a big loss

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<v Speaker 2>to the party. Identity, but it does also strengthen the

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<v Speaker 2>numbers and political pool of whatever party he chooses to join.

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<v Speaker 2>And all signs indicate that he is set to join

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<v Speaker 2>One Nation, which is kind of a competitor in that

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<v Speaker 2>rural and regional interests category to the Nationals.

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<v Speaker 1>He doesn't definitely need to join another party, though he

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<v Speaker 1>could sit as an independent.

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<v Speaker 2>Definitely he can remain as an independent. And you know,

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<v Speaker 2>so he got up yesterday and he made a short

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<v Speaker 2>statement announcing he would be leaving the Nationals. He didn't

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<v Speaker 2>go as far as confirming he would join One Nation

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<v Speaker 2>in that speech, which we were all expecting. To be honest,

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<v Speaker 2>there was so much speculation. There was a photo released

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<v Speaker 2>earlier this week of him and the leader of One Nation,

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<v Speaker 2>Pauline Hanson, having dinner together. We'll get to the menu

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<v Speaker 2>of that dinner in a minute. But then he walked

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<v Speaker 2>out of the chamber and within thirty seconds was at

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<v Speaker 2>a press conference that he held in the gardens outside,

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<v Speaker 2>and he expanded on why he was leaving. Still no

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<v Speaker 2>official confirmation that he would be joining One Nation. We're

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<v Speaker 2>expecting that announcement soon. And at the core of why

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<v Speaker 2>he was leaving, I think was twofold. From one perspective,

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<v Speaker 2>I think it was the fact that he has been

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<v Speaker 2>kind of relegated to the backbench. He said he hasn't

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<v Speaker 2>had any kind of speaking opportunities in Parliament in the

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<v Speaker 2>last eighteen months. He's clearly feeling a bit neglected by

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<v Speaker 2>his party. But also he talked a lot about the

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<v Speaker 2>failures that he perceives from his party in representing the

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<v Speaker 2>regional Australians and he said that the Coalition as a

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<v Speaker 2>whole is spending too much time focusing on how to

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<v Speaker 2>win back Teal seats, so seats currently held by Independence

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<v Speaker 2>that are part of the Teal kind of movement or umbrella,

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<v Speaker 2>mainly metropolitan city seats, and they need to refocus on

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<v Speaker 2>the heartland. And he gave an example of Tamworth, a

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<v Speaker 2>town in central New South Wales, and said that there

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<v Speaker 2>are more card holding members of One Nation in Tamworth

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<v Speaker 2>than there were Nationals and that was traditionally a very

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<v Speaker 2>dominant location for the Nationals Party.

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<v Speaker 1>One thing that also stood out to me from that

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<v Speaker 1>press conference he held was he seemed to mention quite

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<v Speaker 1>a few times that he doesn't seem to have a

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<v Speaker 1>good relationship with the leader of the Nationals. Who is

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<v Speaker 1>David Little Proud. Yeah, And he pretty much just said

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<v Speaker 1>they don't have a good relationship and so therefore they

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<v Speaker 1>can't work together.

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<v Speaker 2>He is known to use metaphors about romantic relationships and

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<v Speaker 2>the way he talks about politics. I remember there were

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<v Speaker 2>a number of press conferences when he he was the

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<v Speaker 2>Deputy Prime Minister where he would talk about it the

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<v Speaker 2>coalition is like a romantic relationship, and that metaphor came

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<v Speaker 2>up a lot yesterday in the way that he was

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<v Speaker 2>talking about the Nationals and David Little Proud and said

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<v Speaker 2>that any breakup is hard and all of that kind

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<v Speaker 2>of language. So he's clearly somebody who felt very passionately

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<v Speaker 2>for the party that he spent thirty years as a

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<v Speaker 2>serving member of and that all ended yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>One thing I want to talk about is when I

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<v Speaker 1>think about the Australian political landscape, I always think of

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<v Speaker 1>it as being quite different to the US in the

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<v Speaker 1>sense that, in my mind, we're not voting for people,

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<v Speaker 1>we are voting for parties. So when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>the Leader of Australia, the leader is who leads the

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<v Speaker 1>party that Australia has elected in the House of representatives.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's different to in the US, where you are

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<v Speaker 1>directly voting for a.

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<v Speaker 2>Person there's a name on the ticket.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, And so what's interesting here is when a politician

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<v Speaker 1>says I am leaving my party and going to another party.

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<v Speaker 1>In my head, I think, can you just do that?

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<v Speaker 1>Because aren't we more focused on voting for parties as

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<v Speaker 1>opposed to people?

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<v Speaker 2>Does that make sense totally?

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<v Speaker 1>But then with this, what I have found out from

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<v Speaker 1>the research that the Daily Oss has done is that

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<v Speaker 1>that's actually not quite the case, because what Barnaby Joyce

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<v Speaker 1>did yesterday is well within the rules.

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<v Speaker 2>There's no rules at all that stops a politician from

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<v Speaker 2>changing parties or sitting as an independent once they are

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<v Speaker 2>in Parliament. So under the constitution, MPs are serving as individuals.

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<v Speaker 2>So they're elected to represent an electorate, but they're serving

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<v Speaker 2>still as the person. And this is not you know,

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<v Speaker 2>this is not without precedent. Fatima Payman, she left the

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<v Speaker 2>Labor Party last year. She remains in the Senate as

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<v Speaker 2>an independent. One interesting quirk with Barnaby Joyce's announcement when

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<v Speaker 2>he was asked about this, you know, what do you

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<v Speaker 2>say to the people of New England who voted for

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<v Speaker 2>you as a National's member, and now you're not a

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<v Speaker 2>member there anymore. He did make the point that he

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<v Speaker 2>has already announced that he's not contesting that seat at

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<v Speaker 2>the next federal election, so the Nationals we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>have to pick somebody new anyway. There is a rumor though,

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<v Speaker 2>that he is going to contest a Senate seat, so

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<v Speaker 2>he wants to go back into the Senate and represent

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<v Speaker 2>New South Wales this time in the Senate, and we

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<v Speaker 2>don't know yet in what capacity he'll be doing that.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, we're going to take a quick break to

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<v Speaker 1>hear a message from today's sponsor. Can you just explain

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<v Speaker 1>You just mentioned that Joyce will not be recontesting his

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<v Speaker 1>seat of New England, but to be clear, he will

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<v Speaker 1>remain in that seat until the next election.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly. So he still has two and a half

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<v Speaker 2>years of the parliamentary term to serve as the Member

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<v Speaker 2>of New England. That is his as long as he

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<v Speaker 2>wants it and as long as he doesn't quit his

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<v Speaker 2>job entirely. But he can do that in either the

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<v Speaker 2>capacity of being a member of another party, probably one nation,

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<v Speaker 2>or as an independent one hundred percent safe.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So let's talk about One Nation is rumored to

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<v Speaker 1>be joining One Nation. At the time of recording, he

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<v Speaker 1>has not announced that. We've actually already spoken about One

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<v Speaker 1>Nation on the podcast. It's a great episode because it's leader,

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<v Speaker 1>Pauline Hanson wore a burker in the Senate this week.

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<v Speaker 1>But for anyone who missed that episode, do you want

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<v Speaker 1>to just give us a quick overview of One Nation

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<v Speaker 1>and why Barnaby Joyce might be interested in joining that party?

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<v Speaker 2>So I think we'll link to the episode so you

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<v Speaker 2>can have a proper listen about the history of the party.

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<v Speaker 2>But all you need to know really is that it

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<v Speaker 2>was founded by Pauline Hanson back in nineteen ninety seven

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<v Speaker 2>and the party, similarly to the National says that it

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<v Speaker 2>represents everyday Australians who feels like the major parties has

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<v Speaker 2>left them behind. They are very popular. The main popularity

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<v Speaker 2>they see is in the rural and regional areas and

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<v Speaker 2>they're campaigning pretty heavily on things like immigration, economic nationalism

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<v Speaker 2>and what they call a pushback against wokeness or political correctness.

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<v Speaker 2>I wanted to talk quickly about the polls because I

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<v Speaker 2>think Barnaby Joyce's potential move to one nation has significance

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<v Speaker 2>when you look at the direction of popularity of these

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<v Speaker 2>two parties. So one nation has its highest primary vote

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<v Speaker 2>in the poll. So polsters will ask who would you

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<v Speaker 2>vote for if the election was today. They've got a

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<v Speaker 2>record high primary vote of fourteen percent, which is its

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<v Speaker 2>highest result in the poll since the late nineties.

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<v Speaker 1>What does primary vote mean there?

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<v Speaker 2>So who would you vote for in the first position

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<v Speaker 2>on your on your numbering one to six leaving no

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<v Speaker 2>box unchecked? Kind of vibe at the poll, and so

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<v Speaker 2>you only get to pick one because it's the which

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<v Speaker 2>party would you put as number one? And fourteen percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the population says one nation. The Greens in Independence

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<v Speaker 2>are on twelve point five and thirteen point five percent.

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<v Speaker 2>To put that in perspective, so you know one nation

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<v Speaker 2>is based on the polls, they are more popular than

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<v Speaker 2>the Greens, and they are more popular than Independence. There

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<v Speaker 2>is still some room between them and the coalition though.

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<v Speaker 2>The coalition's latest numbers are twenty seven percent, but that

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<v Speaker 2>number has slipped a lot in the last twelve months.

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<v Speaker 2>So you've got one party in the coalition that's kind

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<v Speaker 2>of trending down. You've got one nation that's trending up,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's a very interesting change of dynamics and almost

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<v Speaker 2>a wave that Barnaby Joyce will likely ride.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to talk about that decline in popularity for

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<v Speaker 1>the Coalition because I think one thing that is interesting is,

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<v Speaker 1>like you said, one nation is on the rise and

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<v Speaker 1>the Coalition is on the decline. There is a big

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<v Speaker 1>gap between them, but it's an interesting trend to look at. Hypothetically,

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<v Speaker 1>if one nation was to overtake the Coalition in popularity,

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<v Speaker 1>not just in polls, but at an actual election, could

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<v Speaker 1>they become the new opposition?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, they could if they formed a new coalition essentially,

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<v Speaker 2>because remember there's one hundred and fifty seats in the

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<v Speaker 2>House of Representatives. You need seventy six of them to govern.

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<v Speaker 2>And so if Barnaby Joyce joins one Nation in the

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<v Speaker 2>House of Reps, that's their only member right now, so

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<v Speaker 2>they would need to find seventy five other members to join.

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<v Speaker 1>So to be clear, one nation currently has no politicians

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<v Speaker 1>in the House of Representatives. All of their members who

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<v Speaker 1>are elected, all of their elected members are in the Senate.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly, so they have a lot of grounds to have

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<v Speaker 2>a have a long way to go, but what it

0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:22.000
<v Speaker 2>does mean is it could destabilize the current coalition makeup

0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:24.280
<v Speaker 2>and then once you have kind of a bunch of

0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:26.880
<v Speaker 2>minor parties. We see this in other countries around the

0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.240
<v Speaker 2>world where there's maybe a group of four or five

0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.040
<v Speaker 2>minor parties. Let's say that they all of the seventy six,

0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:34.920
<v Speaker 2>they can all contribute between ten and fifteen. You then

0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:38.160
<v Speaker 2>could see a world where a party with ten members

0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:43.000
<v Speaker 2>could actually be the leader of a broader coalition. And

0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:44.840
<v Speaker 2>that's where you see some of the parties that have

0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:49.160
<v Speaker 2>traditionally fringe interests of minor interests suddenly become in positions

0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 2>of power. So it's definitely not within the next five years,

0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.920
<v Speaker 2>but it's definitely not a totally hypothetical notion.

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<v Speaker 1>And just before we go, how has the National Party

0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.160
<v Speaker 1>responded to this news from Barnaby Joyce.

0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:08.040
<v Speaker 2>Well, understandably they're not happy. So just before Barnaby Joyce's announcement,

0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 2>the Senate Leader of the Nationals, Bridget Mackenzie, she said

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:16.160
<v Speaker 2>the move by Joyce would quote trash his legacy, saying

0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:18.680
<v Speaker 2>Joyce had a choice between being part of a party

0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:21.920
<v Speaker 2>of government to get things done, being the Nationals, or

0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:24.720
<v Speaker 2>join a protest party where you won't be able to

0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:27.480
<v Speaker 2>do that type of thing being one nation. So some

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:31.440
<v Speaker 2>strong words there. It's clear that the relationship is totally

0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:35.400
<v Speaker 2>broken down as per him leaving, so not surprised that

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:40.120
<v Speaker 2>that was the response. But for the Nationals, politically, they

0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:42.120
<v Speaker 2>lose a vote and they lose a number, and that

0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:44.079
<v Speaker 2>makes a big difference in the world of politics.

0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 1>I also reached out to the team of National's leader

0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:49.240
<v Speaker 1>David Little Proud to see if they had anything to say,

0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:51.920
<v Speaker 1>and they said, we're not commenting on it, which is

0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.000
<v Speaker 1>super interesting. I mean, like we said at the start,

0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:57.040
<v Speaker 1>this is a very high profile member of the Nationals

0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:59.600
<v Speaker 1>and for the leader to not even comment on the

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:03.120
<v Speaker 1>fact that he's departing is quite significant.

0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.720
<v Speaker 2>It's almost like you might put that to him. Next

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.240
<v Speaker 2>week is when he's sitting in the chair that I'm

0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:09.160
<v Speaker 2>in right now.

0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.600
<v Speaker 1>And that is a very good place to leave this conversation.

0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.040
<v Speaker 1>But I do want to say, like Sam said, I

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:17.880
<v Speaker 1>will be interviewing David Little Proud, who is, as we

0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.640
<v Speaker 1>have said many times, he's the leader of the National Party.

0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.680
<v Speaker 1>I'll be interviewing him next week. If you do have

0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.680
<v Speaker 1>any question suggestions that you would like me to put

0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:30.640
<v Speaker 1>to him. You can email us at Helloatthdalios dot com

0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:33.160
<v Speaker 1>dot au. I'll be having a look at any question

0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 1>suggestions that are sent there. I think it will be

0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:40.280
<v Speaker 1>a particularly interesting time now to be talking to him.

0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.240
<v Speaker 1>That is all we have time for today, Sam, thank

0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.280
<v Speaker 1>you for taking us through that. Thanks Billy, and thank

0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:47.440
<v Speaker 1>you so much for listening to this episode of the

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.520
<v Speaker 1>Daily Ods. We'll be back this afternoon with your evening headlines,

0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:56.280
<v Speaker 1>but until then, have a great day.

0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:58.880
<v Speaker 2>My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Aarunda

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.200
<v Speaker 2>Bunjelung good in woman from Gadigol Country.

0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 1>The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on

0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:08.160
<v Speaker 1>the lands of the Gadigol people and pays respect to

0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 1>all Aboriginal and Torrestrate island and nations. We pay our

0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:14.880
<v Speaker 1>respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past

0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:15.480
<v Speaker 1>and present.