Speaker 1: Already and this is this is the Daily This is
Speaker 1: the Daily OS. Oh, now it makes sense.
Speaker 2: Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Friday,
Speaker 2: the twenty eighth of November. I'm Sam Kazlowski.
Speaker 1: I'm Billy fitz Simon's.
Speaker 2: Late yesterday, former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce stood up
Speaker 2: in the House of Representatives and announced he is leaving
Speaker 2: his current political party, the Nationals, after thirty years of membership.
Speaker 2: It comes after months of speculation about a move and
Speaker 2: could have major implications for the strength of the current
Speaker 2: coalition opposition and the longer term success of the Nationals
Speaker 2: in some really key regional parts of Australia. On today's podcast,
Speaker 2: we're going to break down who Barnaby Joyce is, why
Speaker 2: he's made this announcement, and what it could all mean
Speaker 2: for the balance of power in Canberra on the last
Speaker 2: sitting day of the year.
Speaker 1: Sam Barnaby Joyce, I think is a very recognizable name
Speaker 1: in Australian politics. He has been around politics for a
Speaker 1: very long time. But for anyone who isn't familiar with him,
Speaker 1: what do we need to know about him?
Speaker 2: So Barnaby Joyce has been the MP for New England,
Speaker 2: which is a seat in the lower House in northern
Speaker 2: New South Wales since twenty thirteen. Before that, he was
Speaker 2: a Senator for Queensland, and in twenty sixteen he became
Speaker 2: the leader of the National Party and he also became
Speaker 2: Deputy Prime Minister under Malcolm Turnbull. So he had that
Speaker 2: job until twenty eighteen when he stepped down after a
Speaker 2: personal relationship with his former staffer became public.
Speaker 1: If anyone's heard of the Bonk Ban, I'm saying that
Speaker 1: in quotation marks in Canberra. It came about in twenty
Speaker 1: eighteen after this relationship that he had with his former
Speaker 1: staffer came to light, and it is a band that
Speaker 1: still stands that politicians cannot have intimate relationships with their staffers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think from that point in twenty eighteen
Speaker 2: he really has taken kind of a back seat and
Speaker 2: quite literally been on the back bench of his party,
Speaker 2: partly because of all of the personal dramas that have
Speaker 2: surrounded his political career. So he hasn't really had a
Speaker 2: senior role in any of the kind of key portfolios
Speaker 2: over the last couple of years, but nonetheless is a
Speaker 2: very influential figure of Australian politics and particularly of conservative
Speaker 2: politics in this country.
Speaker 1: And so throughout his whole time in politics up until now,
Speaker 1: he has been part of the National Party. If anyone's
Speaker 1: just getting across the National Party, give us some very
Speaker 1: quick context. What actually is the National Party.
Speaker 2: So they're the party that represents the interests of rural
Speaker 2: and regional Australians. Federally, they have this formal alliance with
Speaker 2: the Liberal Party and together they're called the Coalition. There's
Speaker 2: actually three parties in the coalition because there's the Liberal
Speaker 2: National Party of Queensland. But at a top line, the
Speaker 2: coalition is the Liberals and the Nationals. So when the
Speaker 2: Coalition wins government like they did under you know, Malcolm
Speaker 2: Turbule or Scott Morrison, the Nationals leader usually becomes the
Speaker 2: Deputy prime Minister as part of that coalition agreement. And
Speaker 2: so right now the Nationals are led by David little Proud,
Speaker 2: who you're sitting down with next week, and Joyce leaving
Speaker 2: Little Proud's party is a really big deal because he
Speaker 2: isn't just a backbencher, he is a former leader. He's
Speaker 2: a former Deputy Prime minister. So it's a big loss
Speaker 2: to the party. Identity, but it does also strengthen the
Speaker 2: numbers and political pool of whatever party he chooses to join.
Speaker 2: And all signs indicate that he is set to join
Speaker 2: One Nation, which is kind of a competitor in that
Speaker 2: rural and regional interests category to the Nationals.
Speaker 1: He doesn't definitely need to join another party, though he
Speaker 1: could sit as an independent.
Speaker 2: Definitely he can remain as an independent. And you know,
Speaker 2: so he got up yesterday and he made a short
Speaker 2: statement announcing he would be leaving the Nationals. He didn't
Speaker 2: go as far as confirming he would join One Nation
Speaker 2: in that speech, which we were all expecting. To be honest,
Speaker 2: there was so much speculation. There was a photo released
Speaker 2: earlier this week of him and the leader of One Nation,
Speaker 2: Pauline Hanson, having dinner together. We'll get to the menu
Speaker 2: of that dinner in a minute. But then he walked
Speaker 2: out of the chamber and within thirty seconds was at
Speaker 2: a press conference that he held in the gardens outside,
Speaker 2: and he expanded on why he was leaving. Still no
Speaker 2: official confirmation that he would be joining One Nation. We're
Speaker 2: expecting that announcement soon. And at the core of why
Speaker 2: he was leaving, I think was twofold. From one perspective,
Speaker 2: I think it was the fact that he has been
Speaker 2: kind of relegated to the backbench. He said he hasn't
Speaker 2: had any kind of speaking opportunities in Parliament in the
Speaker 2: last eighteen months. He's clearly feeling a bit neglected by
Speaker 2: his party. But also he talked a lot about the
Speaker 2: failures that he perceives from his party in representing the
Speaker 2: regional Australians and he said that the Coalition as a
Speaker 2: whole is spending too much time focusing on how to
Speaker 2: win back Teal seats, so seats currently held by Independence
Speaker 2: that are part of the Teal kind of movement or umbrella,
Speaker 2: mainly metropolitan city seats, and they need to refocus on
Speaker 2: the heartland. And he gave an example of Tamworth, a
Speaker 2: town in central New South Wales, and said that there
Speaker 2: are more card holding members of One Nation in Tamworth
Speaker 2: than there were Nationals and that was traditionally a very
Speaker 2: dominant location for the Nationals Party.
Speaker 1: One thing that also stood out to me from that
Speaker 1: press conference he held was he seemed to mention quite
Speaker 1: a few times that he doesn't seem to have a
Speaker 1: good relationship with the leader of the Nationals. Who is
Speaker 1: David Little Proud. Yeah, And he pretty much just said
Speaker 1: they don't have a good relationship and so therefore they
Speaker 1: can't work together.
Speaker 2: He is known to use metaphors about romantic relationships and
Speaker 2: the way he talks about politics. I remember there were
Speaker 2: a number of press conferences when he he was the
Speaker 2: Deputy Prime Minister where he would talk about it the
Speaker 2: coalition is like a romantic relationship, and that metaphor came
Speaker 2: up a lot yesterday in the way that he was
Speaker 2: talking about the Nationals and David Little Proud and said
Speaker 2: that any breakup is hard and all of that kind
Speaker 2: of language. So he's clearly somebody who felt very passionately
Speaker 2: for the party that he spent thirty years as a
Speaker 2: serving member of and that all ended yesterday.
Speaker 1: One thing I want to talk about is when I
Speaker 1: think about the Australian political landscape, I always think of
Speaker 1: it as being quite different to the US in the
Speaker 1: sense that, in my mind, we're not voting for people,
Speaker 1: we are voting for parties. So when it comes to
Speaker 1: the Leader of Australia, the leader is who leads the
Speaker 1: party that Australia has elected in the House of representatives.
Speaker 1: And that's different to in the US, where you are
Speaker 1: directly voting for a.
Speaker 2: Person there's a name on the ticket.
Speaker 1: Yes, And so what's interesting here is when a politician
Speaker 1: says I am leaving my party and going to another party.
Speaker 1: In my head, I think, can you just do that?
Speaker 1: Because aren't we more focused on voting for parties as
Speaker 1: opposed to people?
Speaker 2: Does that make sense totally?
Speaker 1: But then with this, what I have found out from
Speaker 1: the research that the Daily Oss has done is that
Speaker 1: that's actually not quite the case, because what Barnaby Joyce
Speaker 1: did yesterday is well within the rules.
Speaker 2: There's no rules at all that stops a politician from
Speaker 2: changing parties or sitting as an independent once they are
Speaker 2: in Parliament. So under the constitution, MPs are serving as individuals.
Speaker 2: So they're elected to represent an electorate, but they're serving
Speaker 2: still as the person. And this is not you know,
Speaker 2: this is not without precedent. Fatima Payman, she left the
Speaker 2: Labor Party last year. She remains in the Senate as
Speaker 2: an independent. One interesting quirk with Barnaby Joyce's announcement when
Speaker 2: he was asked about this, you know, what do you
Speaker 2: say to the people of New England who voted for
Speaker 2: you as a National's member, and now you're not a
Speaker 2: member there anymore. He did make the point that he
Speaker 2: has already announced that he's not contesting that seat at
Speaker 2: the next federal election, so the Nationals we're going to
Speaker 2: have to pick somebody new anyway. There is a rumor though,
Speaker 2: that he is going to contest a Senate seat, so
Speaker 2: he wants to go back into the Senate and represent
Speaker 2: New South Wales this time in the Senate, and we
Speaker 2: don't know yet in what capacity he'll be doing that.
Speaker 1: All right, we're going to take a quick break to
Speaker 1: hear a message from today's sponsor. Can you just explain
Speaker 1: You just mentioned that Joyce will not be recontesting his
Speaker 1: seat of New England, but to be clear, he will
Speaker 1: remain in that seat until the next election.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. So he still has two and a half
Speaker 2: years of the parliamentary term to serve as the Member
Speaker 2: of New England. That is his as long as he
Speaker 2: wants it and as long as he doesn't quit his
Speaker 2: job entirely. But he can do that in either the
Speaker 2: capacity of being a member of another party, probably one nation,
Speaker 2: or as an independent one hundred percent safe.
Speaker 1: Okay, So let's talk about One Nation is rumored to
Speaker 1: be joining One Nation. At the time of recording, he
Speaker 1: has not announced that. We've actually already spoken about One
Speaker 1: Nation on the podcast. It's a great episode because it's leader,
Speaker 1: Pauline Hanson wore a burker in the Senate this week.
Speaker 1: But for anyone who missed that episode, do you want
Speaker 1: to just give us a quick overview of One Nation
Speaker 1: and why Barnaby Joyce might be interested in joining that party?
Speaker 2: So I think we'll link to the episode so you
Speaker 2: can have a proper listen about the history of the party.
Speaker 2: But all you need to know really is that it
Speaker 2: was founded by Pauline Hanson back in nineteen ninety seven
Speaker 2: and the party, similarly to the National says that it
Speaker 2: represents everyday Australians who feels like the major parties has
Speaker 2: left them behind. They are very popular. The main popularity
Speaker 2: they see is in the rural and regional areas and
Speaker 2: they're campaigning pretty heavily on things like immigration, economic nationalism
Speaker 2: and what they call a pushback against wokeness or political correctness.
Speaker 2: I wanted to talk quickly about the polls because I
Speaker 2: think Barnaby Joyce's potential move to one nation has significance
Speaker 2: when you look at the direction of popularity of these
Speaker 2: two parties. So one nation has its highest primary vote
Speaker 2: in the poll. So polsters will ask who would you
Speaker 2: vote for if the election was today. They've got a
Speaker 2: record high primary vote of fourteen percent, which is its
Speaker 2: highest result in the poll since the late nineties.
Speaker 1: What does primary vote mean there?
Speaker 2: So who would you vote for in the first position
Speaker 2: on your on your numbering one to six leaving no
Speaker 2: box unchecked? Kind of vibe at the poll, and so
Speaker 2: you only get to pick one because it's the which
Speaker 2: party would you put as number one? And fourteen percent
Speaker 2: of the population says one nation. The Greens in Independence
Speaker 2: are on twelve point five and thirteen point five percent.
Speaker 2: To put that in perspective, so you know one nation
Speaker 2: is based on the polls, they are more popular than
Speaker 2: the Greens, and they are more popular than Independence. There
Speaker 2: is still some room between them and the coalition though.
Speaker 2: The coalition's latest numbers are twenty seven percent, but that
Speaker 2: number has slipped a lot in the last twelve months.
Speaker 2: So you've got one party in the coalition that's kind
Speaker 2: of trending down. You've got one nation that's trending up,
Speaker 2: and that's a very interesting change of dynamics and almost
Speaker 2: a wave that Barnaby Joyce will likely ride.
Speaker 1: I want to talk about that decline in popularity for
Speaker 1: the Coalition because I think one thing that is interesting is,
Speaker 1: like you said, one nation is on the rise and
Speaker 1: the Coalition is on the decline. There is a big
Speaker 1: gap between them, but it's an interesting trend to look at. Hypothetically,
Speaker 1: if one nation was to overtake the Coalition in popularity,
Speaker 1: not just in polls, but at an actual election, could
Speaker 1: they become the new opposition?
Speaker 2: Well, they could if they formed a new coalition essentially,
Speaker 2: because remember there's one hundred and fifty seats in the
Speaker 2: House of Representatives. You need seventy six of them to govern.
Speaker 2: And so if Barnaby Joyce joins one Nation in the
Speaker 2: House of Reps, that's their only member right now, so
Speaker 2: they would need to find seventy five other members to join.
Speaker 1: So to be clear, one nation currently has no politicians
Speaker 1: in the House of Representatives. All of their members who
Speaker 1: are elected, all of their elected members are in the Senate.
Speaker 2: Exactly, so they have a lot of grounds to have
Speaker 2: a have a long way to go, but what it
Speaker 2: does mean is it could destabilize the current coalition makeup
Speaker 2: and then once you have kind of a bunch of
Speaker 2: minor parties. We see this in other countries around the
Speaker 2: world where there's maybe a group of four or five
Speaker 2: minor parties. Let's say that they all of the seventy six,
Speaker 2: they can all contribute between ten and fifteen. You then
Speaker 2: could see a world where a party with ten members
Speaker 2: could actually be the leader of a broader coalition. And
Speaker 2: that's where you see some of the parties that have
Speaker 2: traditionally fringe interests of minor interests suddenly become in positions
Speaker 2: of power. So it's definitely not within the next five years,
Speaker 2: but it's definitely not a totally hypothetical notion.
Speaker 1: And just before we go, how has the National Party
Speaker 1: responded to this news from Barnaby Joyce.
Speaker 2: Well, understandably they're not happy. So just before Barnaby Joyce's announcement,
Speaker 2: the Senate Leader of the Nationals, Bridget Mackenzie, she said
Speaker 2: the move by Joyce would quote trash his legacy, saying
Speaker 2: Joyce had a choice between being part of a party
Speaker 2: of government to get things done, being the Nationals, or
Speaker 2: join a protest party where you won't be able to
Speaker 2: do that type of thing being one nation. So some
Speaker 2: strong words there. It's clear that the relationship is totally
Speaker 2: broken down as per him leaving, so not surprised that
Speaker 2: that was the response. But for the Nationals, politically, they
Speaker 2: lose a vote and they lose a number, and that
Speaker 2: makes a big difference in the world of politics.
Speaker 1: I also reached out to the team of National's leader
Speaker 1: David Little Proud to see if they had anything to say,
Speaker 1: and they said, we're not commenting on it, which is
Speaker 1: super interesting. I mean, like we said at the start,
Speaker 1: this is a very high profile member of the Nationals
Speaker 1: and for the leader to not even comment on the
Speaker 1: fact that he's departing is quite significant.
Speaker 2: It's almost like you might put that to him. Next
Speaker 2: week is when he's sitting in the chair that I'm
Speaker 2: in right now.
Speaker 1: And that is a very good place to leave this conversation.
Speaker 1: But I do want to say, like Sam said, I
Speaker 1: will be interviewing David Little Proud, who is, as we
Speaker 1: have said many times, he's the leader of the National Party.
Speaker 1: I'll be interviewing him next week. If you do have
Speaker 1: any question suggestions that you would like me to put
Speaker 1: to him. You can email us at Helloatthdalios dot com
Speaker 1: dot au. I'll be having a look at any question
Speaker 1: suggestions that are sent there. I think it will be
Speaker 1: a particularly interesting time now to be talking to him.
Speaker 1: That is all we have time for today, Sam, thank
Speaker 1: you for taking us through that. Thanks Billy, and thank
Speaker 1: you so much for listening to this episode of the
Speaker 1: Daily Ods. We'll be back this afternoon with your evening headlines,
Speaker 1: but until then, have a great day.
Speaker 2: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Aarunda
Speaker 2: Bunjelung good in woman from Gadigol Country.
Speaker 1: The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on
Speaker 1: the lands of the Gadigol people and pays respect to
Speaker 1: all Aboriginal and Torrestrate island and nations. We pay our
Speaker 1: respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past
Speaker 1: and present.