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Speaker 1: Already and this is this is the Daily This is

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Speaker 1: the Daily OS. Oh, now it makes sense.

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Speaker 2: Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Friday,

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Speaker 2: the twenty eighth of November. I'm Sam Kazlowski.

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Speaker 1: I'm Billy fitz Simon's.

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Speaker 2: Late yesterday, former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce stood up

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Speaker 2: in the House of Representatives and announced he is leaving

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Speaker 2: his current political party, the Nationals, after thirty years of membership.

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Speaker 2: It comes after months of speculation about a move and

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Speaker 2: could have major implications for the strength of the current

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Speaker 2: coalition opposition and the longer term success of the Nationals

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Speaker 2: in some really key regional parts of Australia. On today's podcast,

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Speaker 2: we're going to break down who Barnaby Joyce is, why

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Speaker 2: he's made this announcement, and what it could all mean

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Speaker 2: for the balance of power in Canberra on the last

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Speaker 2: sitting day of the year.

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Speaker 1: Sam Barnaby Joyce, I think is a very recognizable name

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Speaker 1: in Australian politics. He has been around politics for a

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Speaker 1: very long time. But for anyone who isn't familiar with him,

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Speaker 1: what do we need to know about him?

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Speaker 2: So Barnaby Joyce has been the MP for New England,

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Speaker 2: which is a seat in the lower House in northern

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Speaker 2: New South Wales since twenty thirteen. Before that, he was

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Speaker 2: a Senator for Queensland, and in twenty sixteen he became

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Speaker 2: the leader of the National Party and he also became

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Speaker 2: Deputy Prime Minister under Malcolm Turnbull. So he had that

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Speaker 2: job until twenty eighteen when he stepped down after a

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Speaker 2: personal relationship with his former staffer became public.

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Speaker 1: If anyone's heard of the Bonk Ban, I'm saying that

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Speaker 1: in quotation marks in Canberra. It came about in twenty

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Speaker 1: eighteen after this relationship that he had with his former

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Speaker 1: staffer came to light, and it is a band that

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Speaker 1: still stands that politicians cannot have intimate relationships with their staffers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think from that point in twenty eighteen

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Speaker 2: he really has taken kind of a back seat and

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Speaker 2: quite literally been on the back bench of his party,

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Speaker 2: partly because of all of the personal dramas that have

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Speaker 2: surrounded his political career. So he hasn't really had a

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Speaker 2: senior role in any of the kind of key portfolios

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Speaker 2: over the last couple of years, but nonetheless is a

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Speaker 2: very influential figure of Australian politics and particularly of conservative

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Speaker 2: politics in this country.

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Speaker 1: And so throughout his whole time in politics up until now,

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Speaker 1: he has been part of the National Party. If anyone's

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Speaker 1: just getting across the National Party, give us some very

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Speaker 1: quick context. What actually is the National Party.

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Speaker 2: So they're the party that represents the interests of rural

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Speaker 2: and regional Australians. Federally, they have this formal alliance with

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Speaker 2: the Liberal Party and together they're called the Coalition. There's

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Speaker 2: actually three parties in the coalition because there's the Liberal

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Speaker 2: National Party of Queensland. But at a top line, the

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Speaker 2: coalition is the Liberals and the Nationals. So when the

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Speaker 2: Coalition wins government like they did under you know, Malcolm

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Speaker 2: Turbule or Scott Morrison, the Nationals leader usually becomes the

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Speaker 2: Deputy prime Minister as part of that coalition agreement. And

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Speaker 2: so right now the Nationals are led by David little Proud,

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Speaker 2: who you're sitting down with next week, and Joyce leaving

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Speaker 2: Little Proud's party is a really big deal because he

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Speaker 2: isn't just a backbencher, he is a former leader. He's

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Speaker 2: a former Deputy Prime minister. So it's a big loss

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Speaker 2: to the party. Identity, but it does also strengthen the

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Speaker 2: numbers and political pool of whatever party he chooses to join.

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Speaker 2: And all signs indicate that he is set to join

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Speaker 2: One Nation, which is kind of a competitor in that

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Speaker 2: rural and regional interests category to the Nationals.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't definitely need to join another party, though he

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Speaker 1: could sit as an independent.

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Speaker 2: Definitely he can remain as an independent. And you know,

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Speaker 2: so he got up yesterday and he made a short

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Speaker 2: statement announcing he would be leaving the Nationals. He didn't

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Speaker 2: go as far as confirming he would join One Nation

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Speaker 2: in that speech, which we were all expecting. To be honest,

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Speaker 2: there was so much speculation. There was a photo released

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Speaker 2: earlier this week of him and the leader of One Nation,

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Speaker 2: Pauline Hanson, having dinner together. We'll get to the menu

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Speaker 2: of that dinner in a minute. But then he walked

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Speaker 2: out of the chamber and within thirty seconds was at

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Speaker 2: a press conference that he held in the gardens outside,

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Speaker 2: and he expanded on why he was leaving. Still no

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Speaker 2: official confirmation that he would be joining One Nation. We're

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Speaker 2: expecting that announcement soon. And at the core of why

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Speaker 2: he was leaving, I think was twofold. From one perspective,

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Speaker 2: I think it was the fact that he has been

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Speaker 2: kind of relegated to the backbench. He said he hasn't

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Speaker 2: had any kind of speaking opportunities in Parliament in the

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Speaker 2: last eighteen months. He's clearly feeling a bit neglected by

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Speaker 2: his party. But also he talked a lot about the

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Speaker 2: failures that he perceives from his party in representing the

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Speaker 2: regional Australians and he said that the Coalition as a

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Speaker 2: whole is spending too much time focusing on how to

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Speaker 2: win back Teal seats, so seats currently held by Independence

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Speaker 2: that are part of the Teal kind of movement or umbrella,

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Speaker 2: mainly metropolitan city seats, and they need to refocus on

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Speaker 2: the heartland. And he gave an example of Tamworth, a

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Speaker 2: town in central New South Wales, and said that there

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Speaker 2: are more card holding members of One Nation in Tamworth

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Speaker 2: than there were Nationals and that was traditionally a very

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Speaker 2: dominant location for the Nationals Party.

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Speaker 1: One thing that also stood out to me from that

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Speaker 1: press conference he held was he seemed to mention quite

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Speaker 1: a few times that he doesn't seem to have a

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Speaker 1: good relationship with the leader of the Nationals. Who is

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Speaker 1: David Little Proud. Yeah, And he pretty much just said

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Speaker 1: they don't have a good relationship and so therefore they

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Speaker 1: can't work together.

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Speaker 2: He is known to use metaphors about romantic relationships and

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Speaker 2: the way he talks about politics. I remember there were

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Speaker 2: a number of press conferences when he he was the

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Speaker 2: Deputy Prime Minister where he would talk about it the

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Speaker 2: coalition is like a romantic relationship, and that metaphor came

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Speaker 2: up a lot yesterday in the way that he was

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Speaker 2: talking about the Nationals and David Little Proud and said

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Speaker 2: that any breakup is hard and all of that kind

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Speaker 2: of language. So he's clearly somebody who felt very passionately

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Speaker 2: for the party that he spent thirty years as a

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Speaker 2: serving member of and that all ended yesterday.

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Speaker 1: One thing I want to talk about is when I

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Speaker 1: think about the Australian political landscape, I always think of

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Speaker 1: it as being quite different to the US in the

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Speaker 1: sense that, in my mind, we're not voting for people,

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Speaker 1: we are voting for parties. So when it comes to

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Speaker 1: the Leader of Australia, the leader is who leads the

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Speaker 1: party that Australia has elected in the House of representatives.

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Speaker 1: And that's different to in the US, where you are

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Speaker 1: directly voting for a.

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Speaker 2: Person there's a name on the ticket.

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Speaker 1: Yes, And so what's interesting here is when a politician

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Speaker 1: says I am leaving my party and going to another party.

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Speaker 1: In my head, I think, can you just do that?

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Speaker 1: Because aren't we more focused on voting for parties as

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Speaker 1: opposed to people?

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Speaker 2: Does that make sense totally?

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Speaker 1: But then with this, what I have found out from

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Speaker 1: the research that the Daily Oss has done is that

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Speaker 1: that's actually not quite the case, because what Barnaby Joyce

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Speaker 1: did yesterday is well within the rules.

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Speaker 2: There's no rules at all that stops a politician from

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Speaker 2: changing parties or sitting as an independent once they are

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Speaker 2: in Parliament. So under the constitution, MPs are serving as individuals.

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Speaker 2: So they're elected to represent an electorate, but they're serving

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Speaker 2: still as the person. And this is not you know,

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Speaker 2: this is not without precedent. Fatima Payman, she left the

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Speaker 2: Labor Party last year. She remains in the Senate as

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Speaker 2: an independent. One interesting quirk with Barnaby Joyce's announcement when

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Speaker 2: he was asked about this, you know, what do you

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Speaker 2: say to the people of New England who voted for

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Speaker 2: you as a National's member, and now you're not a

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Speaker 2: member there anymore. He did make the point that he

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Speaker 2: has already announced that he's not contesting that seat at

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Speaker 2: the next federal election, so the Nationals we're going to

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Speaker 2: have to pick somebody new anyway. There is a rumor though,

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Speaker 2: that he is going to contest a Senate seat, so

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Speaker 2: he wants to go back into the Senate and represent

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Speaker 2: New South Wales this time in the Senate, and we

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Speaker 2: don't know yet in what capacity he'll be doing that.

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Speaker 1: All right, we're going to take a quick break to

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Speaker 1: hear a message from today's sponsor. Can you just explain

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Speaker 1: You just mentioned that Joyce will not be recontesting his

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Speaker 1: seat of New England, but to be clear, he will

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Speaker 1: remain in that seat until the next election.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. So he still has two and a half

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Speaker 2: years of the parliamentary term to serve as the Member

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Speaker 2: of New England. That is his as long as he

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Speaker 2: wants it and as long as he doesn't quit his

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Speaker 2: job entirely. But he can do that in either the

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Speaker 2: capacity of being a member of another party, probably one nation,

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Speaker 2: or as an independent one hundred percent safe.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So let's talk about One Nation is rumored to

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Speaker 1: be joining One Nation. At the time of recording, he

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Speaker 1: has not announced that. We've actually already spoken about One

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Speaker 1: Nation on the podcast. It's a great episode because it's leader,

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Speaker 1: Pauline Hanson wore a burker in the Senate this week.

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Speaker 1: But for anyone who missed that episode, do you want

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Speaker 1: to just give us a quick overview of One Nation

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Speaker 1: and why Barnaby Joyce might be interested in joining that party?

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Speaker 2: So I think we'll link to the episode so you

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Speaker 2: can have a proper listen about the history of the party.

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Speaker 2: But all you need to know really is that it

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Speaker 2: was founded by Pauline Hanson back in nineteen ninety seven

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Speaker 2: and the party, similarly to the National says that it

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Speaker 2: represents everyday Australians who feels like the major parties has

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Speaker 2: left them behind. They are very popular. The main popularity

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Speaker 2: they see is in the rural and regional areas and

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Speaker 2: they're campaigning pretty heavily on things like immigration, economic nationalism

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Speaker 2: and what they call a pushback against wokeness or political correctness.

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Speaker 2: I wanted to talk quickly about the polls because I

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Speaker 2: think Barnaby Joyce's potential move to one nation has significance

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Speaker 2: when you look at the direction of popularity of these

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Speaker 2: two parties. So one nation has its highest primary vote

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Speaker 2: in the poll. So polsters will ask who would you

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Speaker 2: vote for if the election was today. They've got a

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Speaker 2: record high primary vote of fourteen percent, which is its

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Speaker 2: highest result in the poll since the late nineties.

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Speaker 1: What does primary vote mean there?

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Speaker 2: So who would you vote for in the first position

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Speaker 2: on your on your numbering one to six leaving no

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Speaker 2: box unchecked? Kind of vibe at the poll, and so

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Speaker 2: you only get to pick one because it's the which

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Speaker 2: party would you put as number one? And fourteen percent

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Speaker 2: of the population says one nation. The Greens in Independence

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Speaker 2: are on twelve point five and thirteen point five percent.

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Speaker 2: To put that in perspective, so you know one nation

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Speaker 2: is based on the polls, they are more popular than

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Speaker 2: the Greens, and they are more popular than Independence. There

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Speaker 2: is still some room between them and the coalition though.

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Speaker 2: The coalition's latest numbers are twenty seven percent, but that

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Speaker 2: number has slipped a lot in the last twelve months.

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Speaker 2: So you've got one party in the coalition that's kind

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Speaker 2: of trending down. You've got one nation that's trending up,

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Speaker 2: and that's a very interesting change of dynamics and almost

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Speaker 2: a wave that Barnaby Joyce will likely ride.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about that decline in popularity for

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Speaker 1: the Coalition because I think one thing that is interesting is,

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Speaker 1: like you said, one nation is on the rise and

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Speaker 1: the Coalition is on the decline. There is a big

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Speaker 1: gap between them, but it's an interesting trend to look at. Hypothetically,

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Speaker 1: if one nation was to overtake the Coalition in popularity,

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Speaker 1: not just in polls, but at an actual election, could

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Speaker 1: they become the new opposition?

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Speaker 2: Well, they could if they formed a new coalition essentially,

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Speaker 2: because remember there's one hundred and fifty seats in the

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Speaker 2: House of Representatives. You need seventy six of them to govern.

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Speaker 2: And so if Barnaby Joyce joins one Nation in the

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Speaker 2: House of Reps, that's their only member right now, so

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Speaker 2: they would need to find seventy five other members to join.

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Speaker 1: So to be clear, one nation currently has no politicians

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Speaker 1: in the House of Representatives. All of their members who

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Speaker 1: are elected, all of their elected members are in the Senate.

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Speaker 2: Exactly, so they have a lot of grounds to have

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Speaker 2: a have a long way to go, but what it

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Speaker 2: does mean is it could destabilize the current coalition makeup

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Speaker 2: and then once you have kind of a bunch of

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Speaker 2: minor parties. We see this in other countries around the

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Speaker 2: world where there's maybe a group of four or five

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Speaker 2: minor parties. Let's say that they all of the seventy six,

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Speaker 2: they can all contribute between ten and fifteen. You then

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Speaker 2: could see a world where a party with ten members

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Speaker 2: could actually be the leader of a broader coalition. And

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Speaker 2: that's where you see some of the parties that have

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Speaker 2: traditionally fringe interests of minor interests suddenly become in positions

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Speaker 2: of power. So it's definitely not within the next five years,

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Speaker 2: but it's definitely not a totally hypothetical notion.

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Speaker 1: And just before we go, how has the National Party

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Speaker 1: responded to this news from Barnaby Joyce.

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Speaker 2: Well, understandably they're not happy. So just before Barnaby Joyce's announcement,

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Speaker 2: the Senate Leader of the Nationals, Bridget Mackenzie, she said

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Speaker 2: the move by Joyce would quote trash his legacy, saying

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Speaker 2: Joyce had a choice between being part of a party

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Speaker 2: of government to get things done, being the Nationals, or

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Speaker 2: join a protest party where you won't be able to

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Speaker 2: do that type of thing being one nation. So some

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Speaker 2: strong words there. It's clear that the relationship is totally

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Speaker 2: broken down as per him leaving, so not surprised that

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Speaker 2: that was the response. But for the Nationals, politically, they

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Speaker 2: lose a vote and they lose a number, and that

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Speaker 2: makes a big difference in the world of politics.

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Speaker 1: I also reached out to the team of National's leader

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Speaker 1: David Little Proud to see if they had anything to say,

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Speaker 1: and they said, we're not commenting on it, which is

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Speaker 1: super interesting. I mean, like we said at the start,

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Speaker 1: this is a very high profile member of the Nationals

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Speaker 1: and for the leader to not even comment on the

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Speaker 1: fact that he's departing is quite significant.

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Speaker 2: It's almost like you might put that to him. Next

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Speaker 2: week is when he's sitting in the chair that I'm

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Speaker 2: in right now.

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Speaker 1: And that is a very good place to leave this conversation.

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Speaker 1: But I do want to say, like Sam said, I

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Speaker 1: will be interviewing David Little Proud, who is, as we

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Speaker 1: have said many times, he's the leader of the National Party.

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Speaker 1: I'll be interviewing him next week. If you do have

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Speaker 1: any question suggestions that you would like me to put

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Speaker 1: to him. You can email us at Helloatthdalios dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au. I'll be having a look at any question

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Speaker 1: suggestions that are sent there. I think it will be

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Speaker 1: a particularly interesting time now to be talking to him.

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Speaker 1: That is all we have time for today, Sam, thank

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Speaker 1: you for taking us through that. Thanks Billy, and thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for listening to this episode of the

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Speaker 1: Daily Ods. We'll be back this afternoon with your evening headlines,

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Speaker 1: but until then, have a great day.

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Speaker 2: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Aarunda

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Speaker 2: Bunjelung good in woman from Gadigol Country.

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Speaker 1: The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on

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Speaker 1: the lands of the Gadigol people and pays respect to

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Speaker 1: all Aboriginal and Torrestrate island and nations. We pay our

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Speaker 1: respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past

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Speaker 1: and present.