1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,960
Speaker 1: Good morning everybody, and welcome to the Daily OS. It

2
00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:06,160
Speaker 1: is Monday, the fourth of July, a very significant date

3
00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,600
Speaker 1: for America, which is the topic of our deep dive today.

4
00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:11,800
Speaker 1: It's all going to be about whether the former president

5
00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:15,160
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is getting ready for a twenty twenty four campaign.

6
00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,160
Speaker 1: In more local news, has been a very wet weekend

7
00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,000
Speaker 1: here for us in Sydney Billy. What can you tell

8
00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:22,720
Speaker 1: me about the massive rainfalls?

9
00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,200
Speaker 2: Well, much of Sydney and the surrounding regions have been

10
00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:28,840
Speaker 2: hit by record rainfall this weekend, with the New South

11
00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,640
Speaker 2: Wales sees reporting at least twenty nine flood rescues in

12
00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,640
Speaker 2: twenty four hours. Multiple evacuation orders are still live in

13
00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,360
Speaker 2: New South Wales, with the rain not expecting to ease

14
00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,959
Speaker 2: until Wednesday. The war agam but Dam spilled at two

15
00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,839
Speaker 2: am on Sunday morning, with modeling from ward in New

16
00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:48,239
Speaker 2: South Wales showing the peak would be comparable to the

17
00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,400
Speaker 2: major spill event in March last year.

18
00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,720
Speaker 1: Both Russia and Ukraine have claimed control over the eastern

19
00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:58,640
Speaker 1: city of Lyshi Kantz, the last remaining Ukrainian held city

20
00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:03,360
Speaker 1: in Luhansk. Both sides have confirmed Russian separatists have encircled

21
00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,400
Speaker 1: the city, which has become a critical part of Russia's

22
00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:10,120
Speaker 1: encroaching front line. Meanwhile, a Russian missile strike on a

23
00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,880
Speaker 1: residential apartment complex has killed twenty one people near Odessa.

24
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:18,440
Speaker 2: Over the weekend, Australia surpassed ten thoy COVID nineteen deaths,

25
00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,760
Speaker 2: with Federal Health Minister Mark Butler warning against the growing

26
00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,959
Speaker 2: threat of the BA four and BA five omicron sub

27
00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 2: variants spreading across the nation. Queensland's Chief Health Officer John

28
00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:31,880
Speaker 2: Jared said there was growing support for the return of

29
00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:33,959
Speaker 2: mask mandates.

30
00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,679
Speaker 1: And in today's good news to kick off your week,

31
00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 1: over one million people have participated in London's Pride Parade,

32
00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:43,960
Speaker 1: which was celebrating its fiftieth anniversary. More than six hundred

33
00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,160
Speaker 1: groups were represented in the official parade, which organizers said

34
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,200
Speaker 1: was the biggest pride in the city ever.

35
00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,280
Speaker 2: So sam former President Donald Trump has been back in

36
00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,640
Speaker 2: the news a lot this past week. Last week, we

37
00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:04,200
Speaker 2: covered the explosive session of the House Select Committee's investigation

38
00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,720
Speaker 2: into the January sixth capital attack, and so to quickly

39
00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,080
Speaker 2: recap that chat for those who didn't hear it, we

40
00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,640
Speaker 2: heard from witnesses from within Trump's White House, who accused

41
00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:17,919
Speaker 2: him of proactively urging his supporters to storm the Capitol.

42
00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:22,000
Speaker 2: He also advocated for the removal of metal detectors, even

43
00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:24,920
Speaker 2: though he had knowledge people attending his rally would be

44
00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,440
Speaker 2: carrying weapons, and he even tried to take over a

45
00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,800
Speaker 2: car being driven by his Secret Service protection detailed to

46
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,560
Speaker 2: join his supporters at the riot. Now, despite all this,

47
00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:39,280
Speaker 2: speculation is growing. It was all over major global news

48
00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,239
Speaker 2: sites on the weekend that the former president will announce

49
00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:46,360
Speaker 2: he is running for the twenty twenty four presidential election. Sam,

50
00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:47,600
Speaker 2: what can you tell me about this?

51
00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:52,000
Speaker 1: Is it true, Billy? It is absolutely correct, According to

52
00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,760
Speaker 1: numerous Republican sources reported by numerous respected American media outlets.

53
00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,880
Speaker 1: We're talking here about the New York Times, the Washington Posts,

54
00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:04,680
Speaker 1: and NPR. Republicans are bracing for Donald Trump to announce

55
00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,200
Speaker 1: an unusually early bid for the White House in the

56
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,680
Speaker 1: direct attempt to shield him from those damaging revelations you

57
00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,960
Speaker 1: just spoke about, I guess. In other words, it sounds

58
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,120
Speaker 1: like Trump wants to steer the national conversation towards his

59
00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:20,000
Speaker 1: return to office in a couple of years, rather than

60
00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,560
Speaker 1: the quite damaging findings of this committee I can't believe

61
00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:24,360
Speaker 1: we're talking about this.

62
00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,079
Speaker 2: It feels like we only just had the last US

63
00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,640
Speaker 2: election where he lost it. Do we have any sense

64
00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,400
Speaker 2: of if he did announce an early bid for the

65
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,800
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four election, when it would be Well.

66
00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:38,800
Speaker 1: This is why we're talking about it on today's podcast

67
00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:40,880
Speaker 1: is because there's been a lot of reporting over the

68
00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,480
Speaker 1: weekend that Trump will announced his campaign on the July

69
00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:47,880
Speaker 1: fourth holiday, which is America's Independence Day, and it's also today. Now,

70
00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,360
Speaker 1: remembering that America is a little bit behind us, that

71
00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,800
Speaker 1: means he could announce as soon as overnight tonight our time.

72
00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,360
Speaker 1: Keep in mind, this is pretty early for an announcement

73
00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,920
Speaker 1: of a presidential tilt. It would mean that Trump and

74
00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,280
Speaker 1: US would begin a two and a half year campaign,

75
00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,160
Speaker 1: as the election wouldn't be until the fifth of November

76
00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:10,480
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Presidential campaigns are usually announced about two

77
00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,160
Speaker 1: years before the election. But the theory here is that

78
00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,599
Speaker 1: an early campaign announcement gives Trump time to raise more

79
00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,200
Speaker 1: money and that is going to be key to Trump's

80
00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,240
Speaker 1: campaign success, as it has been in the past. It

81
00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,960
Speaker 1: will also clear the field, which means that it will

82
00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,840
Speaker 1: discourage other Republican candidates to announce their running narrowing the

83
00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,520
Speaker 1: number of candidates Trump has to compete with to be

84
00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:34,800
Speaker 1: the Republican pick for president. Now, we've heard from people

85
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,479
Speaker 1: within the Republican Party who say they're very close to

86
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:41,279
Speaker 1: the president here. Most sources have been unnamed, but former

87
00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:45,320
Speaker 1: personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani told The Washington Post, my instinct

88
00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,200
Speaker 1: is his running. I have known him for a long time.

89
00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:50,760
Speaker 1: I see what he's doing and how he's preparing, and

90
00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,080
Speaker 1: he sounds to me like a man who is excited

91
00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:57,400
Speaker 1: about the possibility of running. That seems pretty set to me, Billy.

92
00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,679
Speaker 2: And so what can you tell me about his chances?

93
00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:01,479
Speaker 2: Do you think I think that he would be popular

94
00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,279
Speaker 2: with the American public? Has there been any polling?

95
00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:06,520
Speaker 1: Now? Of course, we always need to take these polls

96
00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:08,680
Speaker 1: with a grain of salt, as we've learned in the past,

97
00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:10,839
Speaker 1: but if we do look at them, they look very

98
00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:13,320
Speaker 1: good for Trump in terms of his chances of being

99
00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:17,520
Speaker 1: the Republican nominee. An Emerson College poll released last week

100
00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,360
Speaker 1: found Trump leading the Republican pack, earning the support of

101
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:24,000
Speaker 1: about fifty six percent of voters. Ron De Santis and

102
00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:25,719
Speaker 1: I want to come back to him in a minute,

103
00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,800
Speaker 1: followed with just under twenty percent, while former Vice President

104
00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 1: Mike Pence received about nine percent of support. Now, only

105
00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,240
Speaker 1: about eight percent of people said they were undecided, which

106
00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,920
Speaker 1: is very very low for this far out from an election.

107
00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:40,880
Speaker 1: Then we had some more polling from YouGov who showed

108
00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:44,680
Speaker 1: Trump leading the race by eleven percentage points. Now, in

109
00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,520
Speaker 1: terms of what the polls say should Trump face Biden

110
00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:51,120
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, it is looking extremely close. That

111
00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,279
Speaker 1: same Emerson College poll found Trump holds a five point

112
00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,640
Speaker 1: lead in the head to head race with Biden, while

113
00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:59,760
Speaker 1: the UGOV poll found Biden holds a three point lead.

114
00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:02,760
Speaker 1: I guess if you combine these two results, what both

115
00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,920
Speaker 1: of these polls show us is just how divided voters are.

116
00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,800
Speaker 2: Right now, Can you take me inside the mind of

117
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,240
Speaker 2: a Republican voter, because I think it's fair to say

118
00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:16,080
Speaker 2: that we haven't seen very positive coverage of Trump in

119
00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:20,039
Speaker 2: global media, so the fact that he is still so popular,

120
00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,680
Speaker 2: I can imagine, would be quite confusing for a lot

121
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:26,120
Speaker 2: of people. So how is Trump being perceived by his

122
00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:28,800
Speaker 2: base or what he calls the silent majority?

123
00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,719
Speaker 1: Look Ultimately, it's a lot of the key attributes that

124
00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,480
Speaker 1: Trump has always used. Republicans who support Trump, which according

125
00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,120
Speaker 1: to the New York Times sits at about eighty percent

126
00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:41,160
Speaker 1: of the Republican base, believe that he was an excellent

127
00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:45,480
Speaker 1: president treated very unfairly by the media and the political establishment.

128
00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,799
Speaker 1: And it's believed that the media and the establishment tried

129
00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,880
Speaker 1: to delegitimize and destroy him with false accusations of collusion

130
00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:57,279
Speaker 1: with Russia and digging into his past. Many Americans accept

131
00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:01,120
Speaker 1: Trump's claims that the twenty twenty election was indeed stolen.

132
00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:04,000
Speaker 1: We know that about forty percent of Americans think the

133
00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,160
Speaker 1: election was stolen. That's according to a twenty twenty two

134
00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,320
Speaker 1: Axios Momentiv poll. And it doesn't really look like the

135
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,640
Speaker 1: revelations from the jan six Committee are moving those numbers.

136
00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,920
Speaker 1: I think it's important to remember here that the die

137
00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,920
Speaker 1: hard supporters of the former president, his base, his silent majority,

138
00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,240
Speaker 1: are quite unlikely to be watching the hearings, and the

139
00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,400
Speaker 1: hearings aren't really being covered on Fox News and other

140
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:28,840
Speaker 1: conservative outlets.

141
00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,880
Speaker 2: And you brought up the name Ron DeSantis before. Tell

142
00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,280
Speaker 2: me about him. How is he relevant to this story.

143
00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:38,600
Speaker 1: He's kind of the name that comes up as the

144
00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,520
Speaker 1: only other person that looks really firmly to be in

145
00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:45,760
Speaker 1: the running as a Republican presidential candidate. He is currently

146
00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,600
Speaker 1: Florida's governor, and for the last five years or so,

147
00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,080
Speaker 1: DeSantis has been a bit of a rising star of

148
00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,480
Speaker 1: the Republican movement. He's a huge supporter of Trump, but

149
00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:56,720
Speaker 1: seen by many in the Republican Party to be a

150
00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:01,400
Speaker 1: more polished, younger, professional version of Trump. DeSantis is responsible

151
00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:05,600
Speaker 1: for introducing a number of highly conservative policies into Florida's laws.

152
00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:09,560
Speaker 1: They include a ban on conversations of gender identity and

153
00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:13,960
Speaker 1: sexual orientation in certain Florida classrooms, a banning of medical

154
00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,960
Speaker 1: care for trans youths, are cracking down on Disney for

155
00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:21,560
Speaker 1: their advocacy of LGBTQI plus rights, and banning mask mandates

156
00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,960
Speaker 1: at the height of the pandemic. If Trump does decide

157
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,880
Speaker 1: not to run, it's pretty likely that DeSantis would be

158
00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:32,400
Speaker 1: the candidate challenging Biden for the presidency in twenty twenty four. Now,

159
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:36,000
Speaker 1: there's also speculation that if Trump is the Republican candidate,

160
00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:38,400
Speaker 1: DeSantis would be the pick for vice president.

161
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,319
Speaker 2: Right, and you've painted a picture of Trump having quite

162
00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,320
Speaker 2: a lot of support from the Republican base and from

163
00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:49,120
Speaker 2: the Republican Party. But there must be some Republicans who

164
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:51,880
Speaker 2: aren't in support of Trump having another run in twenty

165
00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:52,600
Speaker 2: twenty four?

166
00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:56,280
Speaker 1: Are there? There are? There's a group of Republicans, including

167
00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:59,360
Speaker 1: those who support the January sixth Committee hearing and those

168
00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:01,440
Speaker 1: who have been very, very badly burned by Trump in

169
00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:04,240
Speaker 1: the past, who think that Trump running in twenty twenty

170
00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,400
Speaker 1: four would be detrimental to the party and to America.

171
00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:12,079
Speaker 1: There's people like Chris Christy, Larry Hogan, Adam Kissinger, even

172
00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,240
Speaker 1: former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State

173
00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:17,920
Speaker 1: Mike Pompeo who've all hinted at the fact that they

174
00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:19,839
Speaker 1: wouldn't support Trump running again.

175
00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,160
Speaker 2: And just finally, if Trump does announce that he's running

176
00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,400
Speaker 2: for the twenty twenty four election, how will he communicate

177
00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:28,480
Speaker 2: with his followers that he's doing this? Because we know

178
00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,959
Speaker 2: that Trump has been bound from Twitter after the Johan

179
00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,360
Speaker 2: sixth riot, So how can we expect to know if

180
00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 2: he's doing this?

181
00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:35,960
Speaker 1: Billy, you and I are going to be keeping a

182
00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:39,680
Speaker 1: pretty close eye over on truth Social the social media

183
00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,800
Speaker 1: platform launched by Trump after his Twitter baan. Now, this

184
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,160
Speaker 1: new platform has been the way that the former President

185
00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:48,719
Speaker 1: has been communicating with his supporters and responding to allegations

186
00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,760
Speaker 1: aired against him at the jan six Committee hearings. The

187
00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,959
Speaker 1: platform now has about five hundred thousand daily users, so

188
00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:59,000
Speaker 1: it's hardly insignificant. The Trump army is clearly well and

189
00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,480
Speaker 1: truly active, even if it's not on the conventional social

190
00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,360
Speaker 1: media outlets. The other option, of course, is that he

191
00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:09,000
Speaker 1: holds one of his trademark rallies to announce his candidacy. Now,

192
00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,880
Speaker 1: he hasn't obviously declared his twenty twenty four campaign open yes,

193
00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,440
Speaker 1: but if he did, it will likely sound something like this,

194
00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,080
Speaker 1: which is from January this year at a rally in Arizona.

195
00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,839
Speaker 3: This is maybe the most important election we've ever had,

196
00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,760
Speaker 3: but I do believe that twenty twenty four will be

197
00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:30,280
Speaker 3: even more important. This is the year we are going

198
00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:32,800
Speaker 3: to take back the House, we are going to take

199
00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:37,400
Speaker 3: back the Senate, and we are going to take back America.

200
00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:45,440
Speaker 3: This is so imbarred, and in twenty twenty four, we

201
00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,680
Speaker 3: are going to take back the White House.

202
00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:51,040
Speaker 2: Sam, like I said at the start, I still can't

203
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,440
Speaker 2: believe that we're talking about this. It feels like we

204
00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,520
Speaker 2: did really just have the twenty twenty US elections. But

205
00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:58,559
Speaker 2: I also think before we go, it's worth pointing out

206
00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,400
Speaker 2: that if Donald Trump does announced that he is running

207
00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:05,360
Speaker 2: for the twenty twenty four election, it doesn't necessarily mean

208
00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:09,600
Speaker 2: or it doesn't automatically mean that he is the Republican candidate.

209
00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:11,960
Speaker 2: It still has to go through the primary votes, and

210
00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,760
Speaker 2: there will still be that competition, most likely from Ron DeSantis.

211
00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:19,040
Speaker 2: As Sam pointed out, thank you so much for listening

212
00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,679
Speaker 2: to this episode of the Daily Ods podcast. You can

213
00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,600
Speaker 2: find us over on the Daily Odds Instagram, where more

214
00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,559
Speaker 2: than three hundred and seventy five thousand young people get

215
00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,760
Speaker 2: their news every day. We hope you have a great

216
00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:31,480
Speaker 2: day and we will be back tomorrow