WEBVTT - 27 million: is population growth a good thing?

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<v Speaker 1>My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

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<v Speaker 1>Bungelung Caalcuttin woman from Gadighl country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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<v Speaker 1>that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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<v Speaker 1>Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres

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<v Speaker 1>Straight Island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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<v Speaker 1>first peoples of these countries, both past and present.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning and welcome to the Daily Ods. It's Thursday,

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<v Speaker 2>the twenty fifth of January.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm zara, I'm emma.

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<v Speaker 2>Late yesterday afternoon, Australia's population officially ticked over to twenty

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<v Speaker 2>seven million.

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<v Speaker 3>And according to some it's a number that might have

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<v Speaker 3>come earlier than predicted.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the challenge, the goal really should be to

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<v Speaker 4>get migration numbers back to a more historically sustainable pathway.

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<v Speaker 3>But there are others who say things might not be

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<v Speaker 3>exactly as.

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<v Speaker 5>They seem'sts of lots of concern and dare I say

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<v Speaker 5>population panic around whether or not we've reached this twenty

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<v Speaker 5>seven million milestone ahead of schedule or on time or whatever.

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<v Speaker 2>You're going to hear from two experts about what this

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<v Speaker 2>twenty seven million number actually means and why you should

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<v Speaker 2>care about it in today's Deep Dive. But first, m

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<v Speaker 2>what's making headlines.

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<v Speaker 3>Former US President Donald Trump has defeated Nicki Haley in

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<v Speaker 3>the New Hampshire primaries. The result brings Trump a step

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<v Speaker 3>closer to securing the Republican presidential nomination, but former UN

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<v Speaker 3>Ambassador Hailey says she won't be bowing out of a

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<v Speaker 3>race that is quote far from over. It comes after

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<v Speaker 3>Ron DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race following Trump's

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<v Speaker 3>win in the Iowa caucuses last week. The next major

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<v Speaker 3>test for Trump and Haley will be in South Carolina,

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<v Speaker 3>where Haley used to be governor.

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<v Speaker 2>Kim Williams has been confirmed as the new chair of

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<v Speaker 2>the ABC. Williams was formerly the chief executive of News Corp,

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<v Speaker 2>and he'll replace Ida butt Rose when she steps down

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<v Speaker 2>as chair in March. The ABC chair oversees the national

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<v Speaker 2>broadcaster's nine member board and is responsible for ensuring independence

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<v Speaker 2>and integrity at the broadcaster.

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<v Speaker 3>France's Data Protection Authority will find Amazon more than fifty

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<v Speaker 3>million Aussie dollars for invading staff privacy. Amazon France has

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<v Speaker 3>been accused of monitoring its warehouse stuff with an excessively

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<v Speaker 3>intrusive system, and that includes tracking worker's performance through the

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<v Speaker 3>data recorded on handheld barcode scanners. The authority found Amazon

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<v Speaker 3>is in breach of employee and privacy rights.

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<v Speaker 2>And the good news, a ninety nine year old competitive

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<v Speaker 2>swimmer has been in three world records in her age category.

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<v Speaker 2>Betty Brussels set new record times for the four hundred

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<v Speaker 2>meter freestyle, fifty mon backstroke and fifty meter breaststroke at

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<v Speaker 2>a competition in Canada. Brussel said, swimming is my love.

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<v Speaker 2>It makes me forget all my worries and I feel great.

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<v Speaker 6>I love Betty Brussel. The good news we needed.

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<v Speaker 3>As many of us were finishing our workday yesterday. Australia

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<v Speaker 3>hit a new milestone. Our population grew to twenty seven million,

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<v Speaker 3>But in the middle of housing, cost of living and

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<v Speaker 3>environmental crises, is Australia actually equipped to deal with its

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<v Speaker 3>growing population. To find out what this number actually means

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<v Speaker 3>for us, I thought I'd ask the experts to unpack

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<v Speaker 3>this one. Mark McCrindle is a demographer, a social researcher

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<v Speaker 3>and the founder of McCrindle Research, and he joins us

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<v Speaker 3>on the podcast Now Hi Mark Welcome to the Daily OS.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh thanks ever great to be with you.

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<v Speaker 3>Now we're ticking over a pretty significant milestone this week,

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<v Speaker 3>twenty seven million Australians. What does this number really mean?

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<v Speaker 3>Why is this an interesting or important announcement?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, any of these population milestones gives us a chance

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<v Speaker 4>to reflect on our population, our growth, how we're growing,

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<v Speaker 4>and our future. And this particular one is key because

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<v Speaker 4>it's come in record time. We've just had the largest

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<v Speaker 4>annual population increase ever in our history. It does create challenges,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, particularly because right at the time that we've

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<v Speaker 4>hit this new record of annual increase is the time

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<v Speaker 4>of inaffordability around homes shortages and around vacancies for rentals,

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<v Speaker 4>infrastructure bottlenecks. People really concerned about the next generation being

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<v Speaker 4>able to afford a home. We just hit an annual

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<v Speaker 4>increase through migration of five hundred and eighteen thousand in

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<v Speaker 4>the past year. Now, the last ten years, we've averaged

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<v Speaker 4>about two hundred and thirty five thousand annual increase through migration,

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<v Speaker 4>so we're more than twice what has been the recent norm.

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<v Speaker 4>And that's what I think has not only created the

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<v Speaker 4>new record in population increase, but new challenges around affordability,

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<v Speaker 4>housing availability and planning for this growth future.

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<v Speaker 3>We have an aging population here in Australia. I'm interested

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<v Speaker 3>if we know a bit of a breakdown on the

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<v Speaker 3>demographics of our population groups. What are we looking like

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<v Speaker 3>on that front, and what pressures do you anticipate there.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, that's right, you know, this aging curve on which

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<v Speaker 4>we find ourselves is pretty dramatic and we just over

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<v Speaker 4>a decade ago we do only just tipped out of

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<v Speaker 4>the twenties as the midpoint in our population. It was

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<v Speaker 4>in the early thirties. Now are in the late thirties.

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<v Speaker 4>Over the next decade probably edging into forty is the

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<v Speaker 4>median age of our nation. So that's pretty steep aging.

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<v Speaker 4>And the migration numbers don't do a lot to mitigate

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<v Speaker 4>that because the average person coming in is a little

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<v Speaker 4>bit younger than the average age but you know, before

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<v Speaker 4>too long and they're adding to the workforce, but before

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<v Speaker 4>too long, you know they're on the upper end of

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<v Speaker 4>the average age.

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<v Speaker 3>Factoring in the declining birth rate, do you think there's

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<v Speaker 3>maybe a bit of imbalance with the conversation around population

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<v Speaker 3>growth that there is such a focus on migration and

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<v Speaker 3>potentially the negative impacts of overpopulation for migration against this

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<v Speaker 3>other concept that we probably hear a little bit less

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<v Speaker 3>about declining birth rates.

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<v Speaker 4>The birth rates have pared down, maybe we've got about

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<v Speaker 4>eighteen thousand fewer births that otherwise we would have had. Well,

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<v Speaker 4>we've got five hundred and eighteen thousand rivals in the

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<v Speaker 4>last twelve months from overseas migration. So in other words,

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<v Speaker 4>any slight curving of the birth rate is more than

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<v Speaker 4>matched by massive increases in overseas migration. So it's actually

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<v Speaker 4>not doing anything to sustain the population by lowering the

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<v Speaker 4>birth rate.

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<v Speaker 3>I wanted to ask another demographer, doctor Liz Allen. She

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<v Speaker 3>works at the Australian National University, and I checked in

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<v Speaker 3>with her about this relationship that Mark spoke about between

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<v Speaker 3>migration and the Australian population.

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<v Speaker 5>Let's just take a moment and consider where these facts

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<v Speaker 5>are coming from. There has been discussion reflecting on and

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<v Speaker 5>pointing to the Intergenerational Report the igr of two thousand

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<v Speaker 5>and two, so that's over twenty years ago.

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<v Speaker 6>That's a generation ago.

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<v Speaker 5>And more importantly, we have had five intergenerational reports completed

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<v Speaker 5>by the Australian Treasury Department since then each containing population projections.

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<v Speaker 5>So the concerns and the population panic that has been

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<v Speaker 5>used and fueled by a cherry picked data point from

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<v Speaker 5>two thousand and two does suggest that we are ahead

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<v Speaker 5>of schedule. But these are population projections, not forecasts. So

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<v Speaker 5>if we think about two thousand and two, think about

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<v Speaker 5>we've plucked the hell out of our eyebrows.

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<v Speaker 6>We've since learned that that's not a good idea.

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<v Speaker 5>So we can see what was happening in two thousand

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<v Speaker 5>and two, and we know then that the assumptions that

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<v Speaker 5>they may have made based on the trends that they

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<v Speaker 5>were seeing at that time in relation to the population,

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<v Speaker 5>namely around natural increase, the balance between births and deaths,

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<v Speaker 5>and immigration, were perhaps not going to be lived or

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<v Speaker 5>not going to be experienced the way expected.

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<v Speaker 6>So hold on to your population panic pants.

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<v Speaker 5>This population milestone is as expected.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot's been said about migration and its impact on

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<v Speaker 3>population numbers. What's your take on perhaps this idea of

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<v Speaker 3>population panic that you've articulated and the relationship at play

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<v Speaker 3>with migration there.

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<v Speaker 6>So this population panic.

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<v Speaker 5>Don't get me wrong, I think there is a healthy

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<v Speaker 5>element of concern or at least in investment in understanding

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<v Speaker 5>population and population dynamics. But this kind of panic that's

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<v Speaker 5>stirred up and is being stirred up by particular commentators,

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<v Speaker 5>particular elements of the media, lead to people being concerned.

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<v Speaker 6>My largest concern around that is.

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<v Speaker 5>The fact that when we hear the word population, it's

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<v Speaker 5>generally code for immigration, and so we're not really reflecting

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<v Speaker 5>on population in its totality, but rather where that population

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<v Speaker 5>is coming from. And that sometimes means that we become

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<v Speaker 5>a bit hostile to each other and we perhaps are

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<v Speaker 5>not as welcoming as we ought to be. Australia is

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<v Speaker 5>an aging population and immigration is vital to offsetting adverse consequences,

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<v Speaker 5>particularly in relation to a shrinking tax payer base, to

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<v Speaker 5>ensure that our living standards don't go backwards. We've had

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<v Speaker 5>a lot fueling this population panic over the last window

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<v Speaker 5>of time because during COVID, in a so called kind

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<v Speaker 5>of quasi population experiment, well perhaps the natural population experiments

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<v Speaker 5>by where whereby we saw international borders close. During that time,

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<v Speaker 5>we had zero or even negative and in fact, in

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<v Speaker 5>an order of tens of thousands of people negative net

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<v Speaker 5>overseas migration. That meant that we had an excess of

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<v Speaker 5>people leaving the country, anyone who was about to leave,

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<v Speaker 5>perhaps they were finishing their studies in a couple of

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<v Speaker 5>years time, they left, perhaps prematurely. What that then means

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<v Speaker 5>is we've now kind of coming out of these closed borders.

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<v Speaker 5>Things are open up again now, and so we've seen

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<v Speaker 5>these very artificially high numbers of net overseas migration fueling

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<v Speaker 5>the popular panic.

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<v Speaker 6>These will restabilize and will normalize in a very short

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<v Speaker 6>period of time. It's just a quirk of COVID.

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<v Speaker 3>As our population grows, you know, whether or not it's

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<v Speaker 3>growing at a faster rate than expected, whether or not

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<v Speaker 3>there is this impact from migration. We are in the

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<v Speaker 3>middle of a cost of living crisis, a housing crisis,

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<v Speaker 3>a climate crisis. How does a growing population impact those

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<v Speaker 3>already strained parts of our society?

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<v Speaker 5>As you perfectly state, we are in the midst of

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<v Speaker 5>a cluster of crisis.

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<v Speaker 6>It is the perfect storm.

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<v Speaker 5>It's easy to point the finger at people, but the

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<v Speaker 5>reality is in this country we have seen an unwillingness

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<v Speaker 5>to invest in vital infrastructure, in a monetary value and

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<v Speaker 5>to really invest in the well being of people. We

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<v Speaker 5>need now to consider these multiple catastrophic in some experiences

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<v Speaker 5>crises and reimagine things so that we are investing in

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<v Speaker 5>what I think are the four critical issues for Australia

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<v Speaker 5>climate change, housing, affordability, gender inequality, and of course job security.

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<v Speaker 5>We need to consider these things, and more importantly, immigration

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<v Speaker 5>is vital to helping the nation weather this current storm.

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<v Speaker 5>In addition to the economic benefits, people that come to

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<v Speaker 5>this country are literally helping us build this place, build

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<v Speaker 5>our houses, staff, our hospitals, staff, all manner of critical services.

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<v Speaker 3>What do you think would be the most successful ways

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<v Speaker 3>to kind of meet these problems in the middle with

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<v Speaker 3>migration numbers and a skills shortage, do we need to

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<v Speaker 3>see policy and initiative that would bring those things together?

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<v Speaker 5>Without a doubt, Australia needs to reconsider its migration program

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<v Speaker 5>and definitely evaluate whether.

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<v Speaker 6>It's fit for purpose for now.

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<v Speaker 5>Certainly recent research and investigation that the government has instituted

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<v Speaker 5>suggests it's not fit for purpose and definitely change needs

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<v Speaker 5>to occur.

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<v Speaker 6>But we do not need a total stop on immigration.

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<v Speaker 5>I think what we need instead is to kind of

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<v Speaker 5>sit back and consider the demography of Australia in its totality.

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<v Speaker 5>At the moment, we have intergenerational transmission of advantage and disadvantage.

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<v Speaker 5>The bank of mum and Dad is determining whether you

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<v Speaker 5>can own a home or not.

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<v Speaker 6>That's just wrong.

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<v Speaker 5>We should not be seeing that kind of entitlement and

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<v Speaker 5>privilege come at the cost of cohesion in this country.

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<v Speaker 3>I do want to ask you before we let you

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<v Speaker 3>go about the birth rate and trends we've seen there.

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<v Speaker 3>What does a declining birth rate mean for the population.

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<v Speaker 5>So a declining fertility rate in its own right is

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<v Speaker 5>not a problem.

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<v Speaker 6>It actually indicates that people have.

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<v Speaker 5>Greater control over their lives, and Australia is not unique

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<v Speaker 5>in the world. In fact, half the world's population lives

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<v Speaker 5>in an area where they are experiencing what's known as

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<v Speaker 5>below replacement fertility rate.

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<v Speaker 6>We're not replacing mum and dad, so to speak.

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<v Speaker 5>Now, what does keep me at wake at night is

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<v Speaker 5>the notion that young people more and more are saying

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<v Speaker 5>that they cannot achieve.

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<v Speaker 6>Their desire for a family. Why.

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<v Speaker 5>Because the obstacles to achieving their family intentions are insurmountable.

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<v Speaker 6>We have climate boiling.

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<v Speaker 5>We have issues that as this kind of cluster of crises,

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<v Speaker 5>cost of living, housing and so on, mean.

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<v Speaker 6>That the future is uncertain.

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<v Speaker 5>Our young people are concerned and really don't feel secure

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<v Speaker 5>in the tomorrow. That needs to be addressed, because without

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<v Speaker 5>faith and hope for the future, we really have no humanity.

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<v Speaker 3>Liz, Happy twenty seven million to you and all who celebrate.

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<v Speaker 6>Happy twenty seven million.

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<v Speaker 5>And I imagine in a few years time you'll be

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<v Speaker 5>where was I when the twenty seven o'clock ticked over.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm sure we'll be telling our grandchildren that's right, that's right.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks so much for listening to The Daily OZ. If

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<v Speaker 2>you are listening to this one on Spotify, why not

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<v Speaker 2>let us know what you thought about the episode. There's

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<v Speaker 2>a little question box under the show notes, Tim you

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<v Speaker 2>can tell us there what you thought. We'll be back

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<v Speaker 2>in your ears again tomorrow, but until then, have a

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<v Speaker 2>fabulous day.

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<v Speaker 5>Already.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is this is the Daily This is the

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<v Speaker 1>Daily Oh now it makes sense. M