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Speaker 1: Already and this is the Daily this is the Daily OS.

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Speaker 2: Oh now it makes sense.

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Speaker 1: Good morning and welcome to the Daily Odds. It's Friday,

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Speaker 1: the seventh of March. I'm Sam, I'm Billy.

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Speaker 2: Wait Sam, Before we start the podcast, yeah, I would

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Speaker 2: like to acknowledge that we're in a new studio setup

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Speaker 2: and we have these beautiful chairs. And if you watch

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Speaker 2: us on YouTube, I'm looking at the camera now for

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Speaker 2: the people following on YouTube, you'll see that we have

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Speaker 2: these beautiful new chairs. I feel like I'm on the

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Speaker 2: call her Daddy set. That's kind of what it looks like.

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Speaker 1: It's the small things that make a huge difference to

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Speaker 1: a podcast like the Daily OS. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think it's really going to uplift the quality of

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Speaker 2: our podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It's fantastic. And I actually just said to you before, Billy,

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Speaker 1: they feel like therapy chairs. Yes, and so maybe it

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Speaker 1: means that when we have you know, Prime Minister in here,

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Speaker 1: the opposition leader in here, they're going to be a

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Speaker 1: bit more open, a bit more comfortable, more in touch.

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Speaker 1: Love it. But that is enough chair chat for your Friday.

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Speaker 1: Let's get into what we're talking about today, and that

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Speaker 1: is the Australian housing market. It's been in the news

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Speaker 1: again with property prices continuing to climb despite some interest

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Speaker 1: rate relief from the RBA last month. So for young

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Speaker 1: Australians hoping to buy their first home, the situation does

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Speaker 1: seem to be getting increasingly challenging. And I think what

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Speaker 1: interest rates dropping presented to us was a glimmer of

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Speaker 1: hope ahead of a federal election where the cost of

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Speaker 1: living and how and where young Australians are going to

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Speaker 1: get their first home. We're going to have a discussion

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Speaker 1: about whether the Australian dream is in more trouble than

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Speaker 1: ever before. And to do that we're going to be

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Speaker 1: joined by Tim Lawless. He is the head of research

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Speaker 1: at core Logic, who released some new housing data this

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Speaker 1: week that shows that despite the RBA cutting interest rates

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Speaker 1: last month, house prices are ticking back up.

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Speaker 2: So Sam. Housing affordability has been a topic that we

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Speaker 2: have been talking about, well Australia has been talking about

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Speaker 2: for dec really, but I feel like since the pandemic,

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Speaker 2: the conversation about affordability of housing in Australia really ramped up.

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Speaker 2: We saw a massive increase in the price of houses

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Speaker 2: in Australia, not just the cost of a house but

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Speaker 2: also the price of renting in Australia. I want to

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Speaker 2: start by just looking at what is the state of play,

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Speaker 2: what does the market look like right now when it

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Speaker 2: comes to housing in Australia.

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Speaker 1: So the base of this discussion with Tim is core

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Speaker 1: logics finding that house prices went up point three percent

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Speaker 1: in February, and that is after a three month period

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Speaker 1: where house prices were dropping. And so you have the

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Speaker 1: state of play in February being that in every capital

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Speaker 1: city except Darwin and in regional Australia, it's more expensive

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Speaker 1: to buy a house than it was a month ago.

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Speaker 1: And that's a really interesting way into thinking about whether

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Speaker 1: we're in a better spot than we were twelve months

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Speaker 1: ago to try and buy a house. You're right about

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Speaker 1: the renting point. That's a really interesting discussion and Tim

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Speaker 1: had some really interesting stats about how incredible the rent

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Speaker 1: rises were in the pandemic and they're better now but

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Speaker 1: still not great. And then I asked him about the

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Speaker 1: election and as an analyst, what he sees his role

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Speaker 1: to be in trying to break down the housing policy.

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Speaker 1: We're going to be thrown at in the next couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I think that gives us some good context for

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Speaker 2: your interview with Tim Lawless. In my mind, he's like

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Speaker 2: a mini celebrity because I see him on every press

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Speaker 2: release from Callhord Jick. So I'm excited to hear his

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Speaker 2: voice and see his face put a face to the

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Speaker 2: name on the press releases. So here is that chat.

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Speaker 1: Tim, Thank you so much for joining us this morning,

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Speaker 1: No problem, Sam, thanks for the invitation. So housing affordability

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Speaker 1: has been something that we've talked about a number of

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Speaker 1: times on this podcast. We saw a rate cut from

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Speaker 1: the RBA in February. Did that relieve some of the

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Speaker 1: pressure on house prices in Australia?

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Speaker 3: Well, not really, because we actually saw house prices rise

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Speaker 3: in February, breaking a three month downturn if you'd like

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Speaker 3: to call it that. It was more of a pause

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Speaker 3: in the marketplace where we saw a measure of home

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Speaker 3: values nationally peaked in October and fell for three months,

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Speaker 3: and then it bounds back by point three percent, virtually

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Speaker 3: taking the market back to where it was at the

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Speaker 3: end of last year. So yeah, I think in that

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Speaker 3: sense we're still seeing affordability as a real challenge fair enough.

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Speaker 3: Serviceability might have improved a little bit with a twenty

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Speaker 3: five basis point rate cut, But in the grand scheme

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Speaker 3: of things, if you're on say a seven hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty thousand dollars mortgage, that twenty five basis point rate

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Speaker 3: cut means about one hundred and twenty dollars a month saving,

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Speaker 3: So in the grand scheme of things, it's not much,

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Speaker 3: and we need to see rates coming down a lot

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Speaker 3: further before you'd really describe interst rates as being stimulatory.

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Speaker 3: It's still quite high.

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Speaker 1: So obviously we've got the benefit of hindsight here. But

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Speaker 1: were you surprised to see those February numbers come through

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Speaker 1: showing a tick back up.

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Speaker 3: I'll say no, maybe kind of actually, because normally you

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Speaker 3: wouldn't see markets responding that quickly to a rate cut.

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Speaker 3: But I think what we drove values a little bit

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Speaker 3: higher in February was probably just the sentiment that had

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Speaker 3: already been growing as we saw expectations of a rate

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Speaker 3: cut were building, and everybody knew it was just a

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Speaker 3: matter of time or when, rather than if, so I

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Speaker 3: think that's probably the biggest thing behind why we saw

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Speaker 3: this fairly broad based rise in housing values in February.

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Speaker 3: Albeit zero point three percent rise isn't that much at

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Speaker 3: all in dollar terms. That means nationally we saw about

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Speaker 3: a twenty four hundred dollars increase in the median value.

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Speaker 3: But I think the key thing was almost everywhere saw

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Speaker 3: a rise in values that there was only a couple

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Speaker 3: of exceptions Darwin Regional Victoria with the two where we

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Speaker 3: didn't see a rise in values. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 3: it was more about sentiment than the actual rate cut itself.

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Speaker 1: So is it easier to enter the housing market as

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Speaker 1: a first time owner now or say twelve months ago

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Speaker 1: from your perspective.

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Speaker 3: Probably not, because over the past twelve months we've seen

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Speaker 3: housing values nationally have increased by about four percent, or

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Speaker 3: in dollar terms, they've gone up by nearly thirty thousand dollars.

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Speaker 3: So I think for most people they wouldn't have seen

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Speaker 3: a thirty thousand dollars boost to their income over the

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Speaker 3: past twelve months. So yeah, even though serviceability might have

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Speaker 3: improved a little bit, and that absolutely that's one of

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Speaker 3: the barriers to getting into the marketplace is proving up

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Speaker 3: to the bank that you can pay them back. So

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Speaker 3: interest rates coming down a little bit definitely, that's a positive,

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Speaker 3: but compared to a year ago, prices are quite a

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Speaker 3: bit higher, especially if you're looking to buy into markets

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Speaker 3: like say Perth, both housing prices are up about fourteen

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Speaker 3: percent in twelve months. Adelaide Brisbane are also well have

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Speaker 3: been very strong markets. If you're looking to get into

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Speaker 3: a market like Melbourne, prices are actually quite a bit

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Speaker 3: lower in Melbourne than there were twelve months ago. They're

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Speaker 3: down in Melbourne by about three percent, or in dollar

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Speaker 3: terms they're about twenty five thousand dollars lower than a

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Speaker 3: year ago. So there are some exceptions to the rule,

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Speaker 3: and I think you'll find that first home buyers do

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Speaker 3: become more active in those markets. Melbourne, Hobart, Canberra all

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Speaker 3: good examples where values have come down over the past

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Speaker 3: twelve months and where there's probably a good opportunity to

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Speaker 3: get into the marketplace at a bit of a discount,

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Speaker 3: at least relative to recognize.

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Speaker 1: How are things looking in the regions then tim especially

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Speaker 1: for first time buyers, much.

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Speaker 3: More resilient actually, so we haven't really seen the regional

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Speaker 3: markets behaving like the capital cities. Sure they're slow down

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Speaker 3: in the rate of growth, but they've still remained positive.

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Speaker 3: But again there is a lot of diversity here. Some

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Speaker 3: of the markets that are really driving the stronger regional

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Speaker 3: trends tend to be quite rural markets areas like Gladstone

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Speaker 3: or Townsville, Rockhampton. Go to somewhere like Ballarat or Geelong

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Speaker 3: in Victoria and these markets are well down over the

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Speaker 3: past twelve months, and from their peak. Areas like Newcastle

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Speaker 3: or Woongong around Sydney have generally still seen growth, but

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Speaker 3: much more subtle levels of growth as well. So it's

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Speaker 3: quite diverse. But I think broadly regional markets are still

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Speaker 3: experiencing this additional rate of population growth than what they're

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Speaker 3: seeing pride of the pandemic. More people leaving the capital

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Speaker 3: cities to go to regional Australia and that seems to

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Speaker 3: be on a bit of a second wind at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Isn't that interesting that we're seeing kind of another wave

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Speaker 1: of regional movement two years after the pandemic ended.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and maybe that's related to still that the affordability

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Speaker 3: of regional Australia relative to the capitals is still there,

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Speaker 3: even though it's not as pronounced as it used to be,

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Speaker 3: say prior to twenty twenty. But also I think it

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Speaker 3: demonstrates some of this I guess permanency of hybrid working

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Speaker 3: situations as well. A lot of people have returned to

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Speaker 3: the office, but generally if you're in a professional or

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Speaker 3: a white collar environment, tends to be sort of three

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Speaker 3: days a week back in the office. So those sort

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Speaker 3: of regional commutable markets, they're in that sweet spot of

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Speaker 3: maybe being within an hour or two of a major

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Speaker 3: capital city. I think that they've probably seen a structural

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Speaker 3: change in their underlying demand where they probably will be

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Speaker 3: more popular going forward than what they were prior to COVID.

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Speaker 1: And just quickly talking about rental markets, a lot of

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Speaker 1: our listeners would be renters. Have rental markets calmed down

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Speaker 1: since the pretty wild days of the pandemic where we

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Speaker 1: heard lots of stories anecdotally from our readers. I'm included

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Speaker 1: in that bucket as well, the rents went up really quickly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Sam, I think that's a good way to describe it.

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Speaker 3: They have calmed down that they certainly haven't fallen, so

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Speaker 3: we're still seeing rents rising, but nowhere near as rapidly

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Speaker 3: is what they were. To give you a couple of examples,

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Speaker 3: go back to the middle of twenty twenty one. That

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Speaker 3: was the height of the rental boom, and we're seeing

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Speaker 3: markets like Sydney and Melbourne, particularly the unit sectors of

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Speaker 3: Sydney and Melbourne, were seeing rents rising fifteen sixteen percent

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Speaker 3: per annum. It was extremes.

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Speaker 1: That's a massive jump, but.

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Speaker 3: It's huge, absolutely a typical rental market movement oversee the

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Speaker 3: past ten years. An end or growth rate, a normal

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Speaker 3: one would be about two to three percent. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: there's fifteen to sixteen percent rise in rental values was

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Speaker 3: an absolute shock to a lot of renters. The good

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Speaker 3: news is we're now seeing vents rising at a much

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Speaker 3: more mild level. Typically in Sydney and Melbourne, unit rents

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Speaker 3: a rising two to three percent, house rents roughly the same,

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Speaker 3: but still that comes after this period of extreme growth,

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Speaker 3: and they're not going backwards in most cases, which means

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Speaker 3: rental affordability is still a real challenge.

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Speaker 1: We always have this conversation with our listeners about interest

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Speaker 1: rates and cost of living and trying to kind of

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Speaker 1: make the point that even if things slow down, your

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Speaker 1: coffee that's five dollars is very unlikely to ever go

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Speaker 1: back to being four dollars. Can you apply that logic

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Speaker 1: to renting? I mean, you know you've mentioned there twice.

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Speaker 1: Rents haven't gone backwards. Could we realistically expect them to

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Speaker 1: go backwards?

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Speaker 3: Well, we could see rents go backwards, but I think

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Speaker 3: not not materially, not significantly. And I agree with you

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Speaker 3: it's very rare to see the price of something actually retreat.

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Speaker 3: There could be a situation where we do see rents

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Speaker 3: go backwards temporarily. And at the moment, we are definitely

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Speaker 3: seeing significant reduction in overseas migration, for example, and a

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Speaker 3: big part of that boom in rental conditions was simply

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Speaker 3: the additional demand we're seeing as borders reopened and an

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Speaker 3: influx of temporary migrants came to Australia, and that really

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Speaker 3: drove rental demand significantly higher at a time when households

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Speaker 3: had become smaller across the country as well through the pandemic,

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Speaker 3: which really amplified rental demand. We've now seen overseas migrations

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Speaker 3: fallen by about sixty five percent from its peak back

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Speaker 3: to much more normal levels, and that's helped to reduce

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Speaker 3: rental demand a little bit. But we're also seeing rental

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Speaker 3: households becoming larger. I think that luxury of having maybe

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Speaker 3: the second or third bedroom as a home office for

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Speaker 3: a lot of people is simply that a luxury, and

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Speaker 3: they've had to tenant that room out to cover their

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Speaker 3: mental costs.

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Speaker 1: A final question from me, Tim, We're about to enter

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Speaker 1: a federal election cycle. We're expecting the election to be

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Speaker 1: called any day now. I'm not going to ask you

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Speaker 1: to give me kind of analysis of which platform you

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Speaker 1: think is better, but more I want to ask about

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Speaker 1: your role in the election. How are you going to

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Speaker 1: approach as a researcher, as an expert in this space.

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Speaker 1: What signals are you going to be looking for as

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Speaker 1: the parties come out with housing policy, and how are

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Speaker 1: you going to try and help Australians make sense of

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Speaker 1: it all.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, great question, and I think as an analyst, I'm

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Speaker 3: here to provide the information and the data to make

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Speaker 3: informed decisions. And I think we could see this across

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Speaker 3: at least the major political parties that Australia is in

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Speaker 3: the grips of a massive supply issue. Housing supply issue.

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Speaker 3: We need to be building more homes. And once you

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Speaker 3: start building a lot more homes, then that starts to

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Speaker 3: resolve some of the affordability challenges because it helps to

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Speaker 3: keep a lid on price growth in housing prices. So

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Speaker 3: I think that's probably the key to this election is

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Speaker 3: those political parties that have a real supply side focus

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Speaker 3: in their policies, trying to enable building more homes and

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Speaker 3: a whole range of homes, not just apartments. We need

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Speaker 3: to see more medium density and low density homes as well,

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Speaker 3: and we need to see a lot more transport that's

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Speaker 3: connecting these homes to make them desirable and efficient to

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Speaker 3: commute from. So I think that's where we're probably see

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Speaker 3: the most influential policies being announced that are going to

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Speaker 3: be determining housing outcomes.

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Speaker 1: A very interesting election period coming up. It's fascinating to

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Speaker 1: kind of have this one rate drop before the election

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Speaker 1: really goes into full swing, house prices being a bit

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Speaker 1: stubborn and staying where they are, if not ticking upwards.

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Speaker 1: And then yeah, the discussion, I agree with you, will

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Speaker 1: focus more on supply. And I'm really relieved that you

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Speaker 1: actually mentioned that point about transport because I find that

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Speaker 1: that's often missed in these conversations about housing, and it's

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Speaker 1: not just transport right, it's about schooling, and it's about

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Speaker 1: employment opportunities in the regions where there's meant to be

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Speaker 1: more houses being built. So I appreciate that a lot,

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Speaker 1: and I'm really excited to see the dynamics of this

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Speaker 1: housing conversation in this upcoming election.

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Speaker 3: Well said Sam, and yeah, I think we could talk

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Speaker 3: for days about the need for amenity and infrastructure linking

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Speaker 3: up areas where new housing is going in. But fully

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Speaker 3: agree with that.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us, Tim, appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: Such a great conversation, and I think that gives us

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Speaker 2: a lot of context going into this election campaign that

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Speaker 2: we are very much about to enter.

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Speaker 1: We know it's going to be a huge issue that

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Speaker 1: you know, all major parties and minor parties are going

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Speaker 1: to be talking about a lot. So whatever we can

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Speaker 1: do to try and make sense of it is a

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Speaker 1: good conversation.

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Speaker 2: You have no doubt there will be a lot of

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Speaker 2: policies being announced in the next couple of weeks about housing. Sam,

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Speaker 2: thank you for the interview, Thanks Billy, and thank you

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Speaker 2: so much for listening to this episode of The Daily OS.

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