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Speaker 1: Already and this is this is the Daily This is

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Speaker 1: the Daily OS. Oh, now it makes sense.

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Speaker 2: Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Friday,

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Speaker 2: the seventeenth of January. I'm Sam, I'm Billy. After fifteen

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Speaker 2: months of devastating conflicts, Israel and Humas have agreed to

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Speaker 2: a ceasefire hostage deal, marking a major turning point in

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Speaker 2: the war. The agreement, broken by Egyptian, Katari and US authorities,

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Speaker 2: is set to begin this Sunday. In today's deep Dive,

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Speaker 2: we're going to break down what this means for the

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Speaker 2: region and the prospects for lasting peace.

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Speaker 1: Sam, this was huge news that we in Australia woke

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Speaker 1: up to yesterday that the conflict that has claimed tens

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Speaker 1: of thousands of lives is finally well, hopefully over. Do

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Speaker 1: you want to start by just reminding us how we

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Speaker 1: got here and how this latest bout of fighting started.

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Speaker 2: Well, we go back fifteen months and the current phase

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Speaker 2: of the conflict began on the seventh of October twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three. That was the day that Hamas launched an

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Speaker 2: attack on Israel, killing around twelve hundred people. They also

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Speaker 2: talk two hundred and fifty one hostages, with about one

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Speaker 2: hundred of those still being held in Gaza. Israel responded

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Speaker 2: by declaring war on Hamas and launching a military campaign

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Speaker 2: in Gaza. The human toll of that campaign has been devastating.

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Speaker 2: UAN data shows around forty six six hundred Palestinians have

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Speaker 2: been killed and at least ninety percent of Gaza's population

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Speaker 2: is now displaced. The territory is facing what the UN

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Speaker 2: has called one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent history.

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Speaker 1: And now we have this deal that has been announced.

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Speaker 1: Do you want to walk us through what it actually involves.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. And the first thing I want to say is

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Speaker 2: that we haven't actually seen the full text of this deal.

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Speaker 2: It has been made public so far. We're going off

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Speaker 2: the widely reported details that stems from some news organizations

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Speaker 2: having a copy themselves. The Associated Press was the first

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Speaker 2: news company to have a copy of the deal. With

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Speaker 2: that said, we do have a firm idea of what's entailed.

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Speaker 2: We also got some confirmation from the US President Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden and Qatar's Prime minister during a number of press

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Speaker 2: conferences yesterday. So it's structured in three parts. The first phase,

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Speaker 2: which will start on Sunday, so in forty eight hours

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Speaker 2: time is going to last six weeks, and during that

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Speaker 2: time there will be a complete ceasefire and Hamas will

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Speaker 2: release thirty three hostages. Now in exchange of those hostages,

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Speaker 2: Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including thirty who

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Speaker 2: are currently serving life sentences. And what's really significant is

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Speaker 2: that the IDF will need to pull back from populated

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Speaker 2: areas in Gaza during this period and they're going to

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Speaker 2: retreat to a buffer zone near the Israeli border, and

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Speaker 2: that should allow more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza and

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Speaker 2: give placed Palestinian civilians a chance to return to northern Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Keep in mind, though, that US research has indicated that

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Speaker 2: about sixty percent of buildings in Gaza have been destroyed

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Speaker 2: over the past fifteen months. Now, in terms of aids,

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Speaker 2: the deal specifies six hundred UN humanitarian trucks can enter

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Speaker 2: each day, which is a marked increase from what's currently

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Speaker 2: allowed to enter the Strip. Officials have said delivering aid

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Speaker 2: could still be difficult due to Israel's restrictions on some

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Speaker 2: UN agencies like UNRA and widespread looting.

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Speaker 1: And by ceasefire, will there be a complete stop to the.

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Speaker 2: Fighting yeah, So think about ceasefire as both sides agreeing

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Speaker 2: to stop fighting while officials negotiate the terms of a

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Speaker 2: permanent truce. And I often find that that's the key

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Speaker 2: to understanding the difference is is it a ceasefire or

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Speaker 2: is it a truce? And it's a really important distinction

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Speaker 2: when we get to phase two and phase three, and

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Speaker 2: that's when a more permanent solution to this is trying

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Speaker 2: to be worked out. One more point before I move

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Speaker 2: on to talking about phases two and three. The deal's

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Speaker 2: only going to come in on Sunday, and a few

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Speaker 2: hours after the deal was announced yesterday, the IDF launched

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Speaker 2: another round of strikes in northern Gaza, killing at least

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Speaker 2: twelve And I think that goes to something I want

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Speaker 2: to talk to you about at the NBILLY, which is

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Speaker 2: that this is a framework where a lot can go

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Speaker 2: wrong as well.

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Speaker 1: So for the next forty eight hours there won't be

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Speaker 1: that immediate stop in fighting, but after Sunday exactly.

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Speaker 2: So it's going to come into force on Sunday. Well,

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Speaker 2: at least that's the plan for now.

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Speaker 1: And so you've taken us through the first phase. I'm

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Speaker 1: interested you said that they're still kind of working out

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Speaker 1: phase two and three. Is that right? That they haven't

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Speaker 1: fully agreed on what those phases.

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Speaker 2: Will look like yet, Yeah, And it's not uncommon in

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Speaker 2: these sorts of cease fires historically for this to be

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Speaker 2: the way that these fold out. I mean, one way

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Speaker 2: to think about the stages is that phase one is

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Speaker 2: the stage that allows officials to think about how to

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Speaker 2: execute stages two and three.

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Speaker 1: But we do still know some things about stage two and.

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Speaker 2: Three, right, Yeah, we know the goal of phases two

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Speaker 2: and three is four, as Joe Biden said, a permanent

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Speaker 2: end to the war. And that's all going to depend

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Speaker 2: though on how the first six weeks of Phase one

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Speaker 2: pan out. If it pans out well, in phase two,

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Speaker 2: Hamas would release all remaining living hostages in exchange for

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Speaker 2: more Palestine prisoners and a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden said though, that if the negotiations to get

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Speaker 2: to a Phase two go longer than the six weeks

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Speaker 2: they're allocated for Phase one, that the Phase one conditions

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Speaker 2: are going to kind of remain in place for that.

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Speaker 2: So they're hoping for six weeks. There's a six week countdown,

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Speaker 2: but it can go longer. But I think the really

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Speaker 2: tricky part to all of this is what happens after

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Speaker 2: the IDF withdraws, and I think that's why it's taking

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Speaker 2: officials a bit of time. Is much of the negotiations

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Speaker 2: in this part of the deal is going to relate

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Speaker 2: to how the long term reconstruction and permanent peace is

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Speaker 2: actually going to be built in Gaza. A big focus

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Speaker 2: of this is also going to be who's going to

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Speaker 2: govern Gaza in the long term. And then if we

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Speaker 2: move past that, we get to phase three, and that's

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Speaker 2: where the remains of any hostages who have been killed

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Speaker 2: and are still held by Hamas would be exchanged for

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Speaker 2: the implementation of what they're calling a multi year reconstruction

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Speaker 2: plan in Gaza, and that would be administered by an

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Speaker 2: international coalition.

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Speaker 1: And all of those questions that you're bringing up about

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Speaker 1: kind of what the long term future of Gaza is

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Speaker 1: and this war between Israel and Hamas. Yeah, I guess

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Speaker 1: it's important to say that this is in the context

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Speaker 1: of a really long term war. These are not new questions.

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Speaker 1: There are questions that the region has and the country

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Speaker 1: has been dealing with for decades and decades. So it

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Speaker 1: will be fascinating to see if, like you said, this

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Speaker 1: is a long term solution that will potentially put an

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Speaker 1: end to those decades of fighting, rather than just seeing

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Speaker 1: this as something that has happened in the last fifteen months.

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Speaker 2: Definitely, and even listening to some of the responses from

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Speaker 2: other Middle Eastern countries' leadership yesterday, there was this real

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Speaker 2: sense for such a dynamic and troubled region whether this

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Speaker 2: type of event would lead to more sustained peace. You're

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Speaker 2: totally right. This is a part of the world that

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Speaker 2: really speaking for hundreds of years, has not been in

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Speaker 2: what we would describe as peacetime.

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Speaker 1: So this was all announced early yesterday in Australia. What

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Speaker 1: happens now, So.

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Speaker 2: The plan is with Israel's Cabinet, and that is a

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Speaker 2: body in Israel that includes the Prime Minister Benjamin Nyahu

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Speaker 2: and his senior ministers. They'll have final approval over all

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Speaker 2: the details of the plans. We're talking maps, we're talking

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Speaker 2: names of prisoners and hostages before the plan is actually

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Speaker 2: implemented on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: And what has the response been from the leaders of

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Speaker 1: Israel and Hamas So?

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Speaker 2: Israeli President Isaac Herzog yesterday urged the cabinet to accept

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Speaker 2: the deal. He said that the deal would bring our

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Speaker 2: sons and daughters home. In a statement from Hamas, Hamas

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Speaker 2: said the deal was an achievement for our people, our resistance,

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Speaker 2: our nation, and the free people of the world. It

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Speaker 2: marks a crucial turning point in the struggle against the enemy,

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Speaker 2: on the path to achieving our people's goals of liberation

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Speaker 2: and return.

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Speaker 1: And when talking about the response, I saw a lot

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Speaker 1: of videos yesterday on social media of people in Gaza

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Speaker 1: and also in Israel really celebrating this agreement and hopefully

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Speaker 1: celebrating the end to what has been, like you said,

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Speaker 1: fifteen months of complete devastation.

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Speaker 2: And I think that's another pattern that emerges from these

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Speaker 2: sorts of moments. I'm thinking about, you know, ceasefires being

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Speaker 2: reached in places like Seria, Iraqi, Afghanistan over the last

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Speaker 2: twenty years, the relief and the outpouring of emotion that

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Speaker 2: we often see on the streets of these countries.

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Speaker 1: For the civilians, it's quite overwhelming.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, at the end of the day, you know, these

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Speaker 2: sorts of political decisions actually have real life impacts to

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Speaker 2: both Israelis and Palestinians.

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Speaker 1: And US President Joe Biden also held a press conference yesterday.

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Speaker 1: He stood up with Vice President Kamala Harris and the

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Speaker 1: Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln to announce the deal. What

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Speaker 1: did he say?

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Speaker 2: So he got up, he announced the deal, and he

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Speaker 2: said this, well than fifteen months.

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Speaker 3: Of terror for the hostages, they're families Israeli people, more

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Speaker 3: than fifteen months of suffering by the innocent people of Gaza.

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Speaker 3: Fighting in Gaza will stop, and soon the hashis return

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Speaker 3: home and their families.

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Speaker 2: Now Biden wasn't the only US president we heard from yesterday.

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Speaker 2: We also heard from President elect Donald Trump. Now, he

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Speaker 2: had previously said there would be quote hell to pay

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Speaker 2: if the hostages weren't released by his inauguration, which is

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Speaker 2: January twenty. Also only a few days away. After the

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Speaker 2: deal was announced, he claimed on truth social that his

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Speaker 2: incoming administration had quote achieved so much without even being

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Speaker 2: in the White House.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's an interesting US political angle here too, because

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Speaker 1: both Joe Biden and Donald Trump kind of fighting over

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Speaker 1: who can claim credit for negotiating this deal.

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Speaker 2: Definitely, and I mean Biden is coming out and saying

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Speaker 2: this is the exact wording of the deal that he

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Speaker 2: put to the parties in May last year. Trump is

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Speaker 2: saying the deal is only happening because of his imminent

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Speaker 2: arrival at the White House. There was also this really

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Speaker 2: interesting moment at the end of the press compe ference

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Speaker 2: yesterday where Biden was asked who could take credit for

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Speaker 2: the deal?

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Speaker 4: Thank you?

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Speaker 2: Credit for this, mister President? You or truck?

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Speaker 3: Is that a Joe?

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Speaker 4: Oh?

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Speaker 1: Thank you?

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Speaker 2: I do think there's a lot of kind of political

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Speaker 2: noise and spin when we work out who can take

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Speaker 2: the credit for this. And there were many comments not

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Speaker 2: only from Biden and Trump, but also from Blincoln and

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Speaker 2: other representatives of the actual team of US officials who

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Speaker 2: have been negotiating this deal. And one thing that came

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Speaker 2: through when you took away the comments from Biden and

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Speaker 2: Trump is that it's been a combined effort. That there

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Speaker 2: were comments about, you know, the incoming administration and the

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Speaker 2: Biden administration working quote as one team on the deal

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Speaker 2: in recent weeks, which I thought was really interesting and.

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Speaker 1: Quickly talked me through the Australian political response.

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Speaker 2: So a couple of hours after the news of the

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Speaker 2: ceasefire broke, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albernezi he said, the

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Speaker 2: ceasefire is a quote new chapter for the Israeli and

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Speaker 2: Palestinian people.

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Speaker 4: This agreement is a constructive step towards peace and stability

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Speaker 4: in the region. We hope it will allow the Palestinian

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Speaker 4: people the opportunity to rebuild, reform their governance which is

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Speaker 4: most necessary, and pursue self determination. Australia remains unequivocal in

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Speaker 4: our condemnation of Hamas's atrocities. On the seventh of October.

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Speaker 2: We also heard yesterday from the Opposition leader Peter Dudden

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Speaker 2: he welcomes the deal, saying Australia should now seek to

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Speaker 2: re establish its important relationship with Israel and to finish up.

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Speaker 1: We did briefly touch on this, but I want to

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Speaker 1: bring it up again because I think the big question

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Speaker 1: that everyone has is around whether the ceasefire deal can

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Speaker 1: actually last long term. What do you think?

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Speaker 2: I think this is an incredibly tough question to answer,

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Speaker 2: but I do think that we need to think about

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Speaker 2: this deal not just in the six weeks of phase one,

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Speaker 2: but this is a three phase deal and both parties

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Speaker 2: need to pass the test of phase one to get

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Speaker 2: to phase two and then phase three. Agreements like this

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Speaker 2: are never going ted and they're so fragile. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you think about one missile going from Gaza to Israel

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Speaker 2: or one rocket going from Israel to Gaza and all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden the deal is off. But whilst they

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Speaker 2: do sometimes fall down, they do have the capacity to

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Speaker 2: usher in a new period of peace. And that doesn't

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Speaker 2: matter where it is in the world. We know that

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Speaker 2: over history, cspires can work. It's fragile, it may fail

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Speaker 2: at any time, but it also might work. And I

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Speaker 2: think a really critical point for us to be looking

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Speaker 2: out for is that six week point at the end

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Speaker 2: of Phase one. Negotiators essentially have this six week countdown

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Speaker 2: ahead of them. If they do work out a framework

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Speaker 2: to enter phase two, then they'll have momentum and they'll

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Speaker 2: have a drive forward. If you start extending phase one,

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Speaker 2: that's where we might see some of the fighting resume.

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Speaker 1: We'll be watching closely as this deal unfolds on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Sam for taking us through. Thanks Billy, and

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Speaker 1: thank you for listening to this episode of The Daily Oz.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back this afternoon with your afternoon headlines. B

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Speaker 1: Until then, have a great weekend. My name is Lily

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Speaker 1: Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda Bunjelung Calkatin woman from

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Speaker 1: Gadighl country. The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is

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Speaker 1: recorded on the lands of the Gadighl people and pays

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Speaker 1: respect to all Aboriginal and torrest rate island and nations.

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Speaker 1: We pay our respects to the first peoples of these countries,

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Speaker 1: both past and present.