1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Daily OS. Another week 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: has come. This is likely the week that we're going 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:08,799 Speaker 1: to learn when the federal election is. So it's a 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: big week for the news and it's a big week 5 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,400 Speaker 1: for Zara and I. Zara, I hope you had a 6 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:16,760 Speaker 1: wonderful weekend. Today we're going to be talking about who 7 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 1: is winning and losing in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, having 8 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: a look at that sort of language and breaking that 9 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: down a bit. First, Sara, give us a quick update 10 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: from the region. 11 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: A number of Ukrainian military sources and Sam we spoke 12 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 2: about this on the weekend, have reported Russian forces are 13 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:37,959 Speaker 2: retreating from Ukraine's capital of Kiev. A Ukrainian presidential advisor 14 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 2: said Ukraine's military had reclaimed more than thirty towns on 15 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 2: the outskirts of the nation's capital, this being the first 16 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 2: time since the Russian invasion began five weeks ago. 17 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,919 Speaker 1: Back in Australia, now and Victoria's state government has released 18 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: a one point five billion dollar surgery package to expand 19 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: the state's elective surgery capabilities. It's thought up to one 20 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: hundred thousand and Victorians are currently in the queue for 21 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: elective procedures, and the new package includes money to build 22 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: new operating theaters, a boost to health staff, and the 23 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:12,759 Speaker 1: establishment of rapid access hubs to perform specific surgeries such 24 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 1: as hernia repairs, cataract surgeries and joint replacements. 25 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 2: The Australian Republican movement and now this isn't the republican 26 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 2: in the sense of the American word, but republican in 27 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 2: the sense of not wanting to be part of the monarchy. 28 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 2: This movement has released a finalized proposal detailing how a 29 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 2: republic would operate here in Australia. Under the plan, Australians 30 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 2: would be able to choose from up to eleven presidential 31 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 2: candidates to be their head of state, and the directly 32 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 2: elected winner would then serve a five year term. 33 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: And today's good news. New research published in the Journal 34 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:52,559 Speaker 1: of the American Heart Association has revealed people who had 35 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: at least two servings of avocado per week had a 36 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 1: lower risk of developing cardiovascular and cinary heart disease by 37 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: almost twenty percent. If that isn't an excuse to have 38 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: some smashed ABO this morning, I don't know what. 39 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 2: Is okay, Sam. So yesterday was a pretty big moment. 40 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:18,360 Speaker 2: In the Ukraine Russia conflict, it has felt like over 41 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 2: the last five weeks of fighting, it's been a bit 42 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 2: all over the place, and it's been really quite difficult 43 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 2: to understand who's winning or what's happening. But over the weekend, 44 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 2: Ukraine's deputy defense minister took to Facebook to announce that 45 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 2: the whole of the Kiev region is liberated from the invader. 46 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 2: Of course, there he was referring to the retreat of 47 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 2: Russian forces from Ukraine's capital. In a video that was 48 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 2: released on Saturday, President Vladimir Zelenski said, in the north 49 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 2: of our country, the invaders are leaving. It is slow 50 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 2: but noticeable. In some places they're being kicked out with fighting. 51 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 2: Elsewhere they're abandoning their positions themselves. It's led a lot 52 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 2: of people online to declare that you Ukraine is quote 53 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 2: winning the war. We wanted to take some time to 54 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 2: interrogate this and really, sam what does winning this war 55 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 2: actually look like. 56 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: I think the first thing to say before we kick 57 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: off with some of the deeper analysis is that we 58 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 1: would always caution against using terms like winning and losing. 59 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 1: It's quite simplistic, and in a war as complex as this, 60 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: nobody is ever truly winning or losing. So that's kind 61 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: of the grain of salt that I want everyone to 62 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: take this analysis with. If we're switching now to the 63 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: more practical what's on the ground in military terms, Ukraine 64 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: is definitely doing much better than anyone predicted. It has 65 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: undoubtedly surprised President Putin and the world by an army 66 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: that's mounted skilled and stubborn resistance against undoubtedly a larger, 67 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: better equipped army. Equally, though, Russian forces have surprised the 68 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: world by being very disorganized, having dwindling supplies. There are 69 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: reports of food shortages on the front line, and technology 70 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 1: much older than the world thought was available to the government. 71 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: One example I heard over the weekend was there are 72 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: reports that Russian forces in Ukraine are using really really 73 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 1: old models of radios to communicate, and they're radios that 74 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 1: can be intercepted by almost anyone. As a result, Ukrainians 75 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: are intercepting the radios with heavy metal music. That should 76 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: give you an idea of the type of technology being 77 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 1: used by the Russians. So the big example of the weekend, 78 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,919 Speaker 1: as you've said, Zara, is this battle at the frontline 79 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: position outside Kiev, Ukrainian forces said that Russians had tried 80 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: to break through four times in the past month, and 81 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: each time they'd been held back. Russia's invasion is now 82 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 1: in its sixth week and it has failed on some 83 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: of these key fronts. The Russians haven't managed to enter 84 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,279 Speaker 1: the capitol, they haven't toppled the government. In fact, many 85 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,719 Speaker 1: would argue that Ukrainian President Vlodims Zelinski has had more 86 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: exposure to Western allies than anyone has predicted. He spoke 87 00:04:56,200 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: to Australian Parliament on Thursday, and Russia has actually droid 88 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,919 Speaker 1: more lands than it's captured. With all of that said, 89 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: it is too early to declare whether one side is 90 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: winning or losing. Even if we take this weekend situation 91 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: of Russian forces leaving Kiev, it's not all a Ukrainian 92 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: victory story. There's been a huge loss of life and 93 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: tragedy for Ukraine and the threat is still live. In 94 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: that video address that you mentioned at the top, Zara 95 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: Zelenski also alleged that Russian forces had planted mines in houses, 96 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 1: aband equipment, and even in dead bodies in the territory 97 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: they had retreated from in an aim to kind of 98 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: have a lasting blow against Ukrainian forces that are back 99 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: entering into the territory. We've had some really disturbing video 100 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: released in the last twenty four hours from some of 101 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: these outskirt towns that shows absolute devastation, and in that sense, 102 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 1: it's really hard to say that somebody is winning. 103 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 2: I must say, Sam, when I saw that video we 104 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 2: were talking over the weekend, it was really really distressing stuff, 105 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 2: and it really just distills how horrifying this war is 106 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 2: on every level. But if we are to flip it, 107 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 2: what does losing look like to Russia? 108 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: So it's pretty clear that Vladimir Putin is losing the 109 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: battle in terms of his goal of occupying the whole country. 110 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: It's not unreasonable to say that Russia and Putin have 111 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: abandoned that goal. And as if just said, trips around 112 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 1: Kiev are in retreat, and his international reputation is undoubtedly 113 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: in tatters. A lot of international commentary is focused on 114 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: how this conflict was positioned by Putin inside Russia. I 115 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 1: really liked this clip from Tom Nichols, who's a writer 116 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,280 Speaker 1: at the Atlantic. Here's what he had to say. 117 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 3: I think the most important thing to understand is that 118 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:43,040 Speaker 3: the Russians have completely lost their political purpose from the outset, 119 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 3: because this war was supposed to be a quick lightning 120 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 3: strike that was going to collapse the government in Kiev. 121 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 3: They were going to have a big parade and replace. 122 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: The government again in the name of not oversimplifying this 123 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 1: to winning and losing, It's unlikely that Russia and Putin 124 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: will leave this conflict empty handed. There are resources and 125 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 1: territories that he may be able to hold, especially in 126 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 1: some of the first regions that first were captured by 127 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: Russia over a month ago, like the Donbas region. What's 128 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 1: really interesting to me is what's happening inside Russia. There 129 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: have definitely been anti Putin protests, and we've seen footage 130 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 1: of those arrests all over the country. But interestingly, on 131 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: the whole, Putin appears to be consolidating support from the 132 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: Russian public. The New York Times ran some really interesting 133 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: independent polls over the weekend that showed that eighty three 134 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: percent of Russians said they approved of Putin's actions, and 135 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: that's up from sixty nine percent in January. You have 136 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: to remember that, according to state run media, their country 137 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: is carrying out a special military operation. You might remember 138 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: that term from right at the beginning of the invasion 139 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: to denazify and take over what Russia says are far 140 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 1: right extremists in an old Soviet territory that's being slowly 141 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: taken over by Western nations trying to drag Ukraine away 142 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: from Russia. Economically speaking, Russia's doing actually hoke the Russian currency, 143 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: the ruble has stabilized. When the sanctions were first imposed 144 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 1: on Russia, the ruble totally crashed in the first week 145 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: of sanctions, it plunged seventy percent. But now it's actually 146 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: climbed back up, and experts say this is because there's 147 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: been this huge surge in oil and gas prices, which 148 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: has massively helped Russia's energy revenue. It's something that we've 149 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: talked about in our federal budget this week. From the 150 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 1: other side, it's placed more pressure on US President Joe 151 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: Biden and European nations to place further sanctions on Russia. 152 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,199 Speaker 2: I know this is a question that gets thrown around 153 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 2: a lot, and it doesn't seem like there's a simple answer. 154 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 2: But are we any clearer this week than say we 155 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 2: were last week about how this conflict ends. It's certainly 156 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 2: a discussion around the office, and I think it would 157 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 2: be interesting for our audience. 158 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 1: We're nowhere closer. That is the simple answer. The best 159 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 1: way to think about this retreat of Russian forces from 160 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 1: Kiev is it's a plot twist to this story. It's 161 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: not the end of the story. It's not even the 162 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: dramatic final fight scene at the end of the movie. 163 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: I was reading a piece over the weekend by Yuval Noaharri. 164 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 1: He's the guy who wrote Sapiens, which I know a 165 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 1: lot of our listeners have read, and he summed it 166 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 1: up beautifully. I'm going to read you the quote now. 167 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: He said, Unfortunately, this war is likely to be long lasting, 168 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: taking different forms. It may well continue for years, but 169 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: the most important issue has already been decided. The last 170 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,559 Speaker 1: few days have proved to the entire world that Ukraine 171 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 1: is a very real nation, and Ukrainians are a very 172 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: real people, and they definitely don't want to live under 173 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: a new Russian empire. The main question left open is 174 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 1: how long it will take for this message to penetrate 175 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 1: the Kremlin's thick walls. And the Kremlin's thick walls that 176 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,839 Speaker 1: he's referring to is, of course, that internal story that's 177 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: being told to the Russian people by state run media. 178 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 2: Okay, and what will we be hearing from the conflict 179 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 2: this week do you expect? 180 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 1: I think the conflict will be focused on Maripol, which 181 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: is the city where thousands of Ukrainians are stuck inside 182 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: with supplies running very low. It's been a bit of 183 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 1: a symbol of Ukrainian suffering over the last few weeks. Currently, 184 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 1: the International Committee of the Red Cross is attempting to 185 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: evacuate residents of the city, but say Russian forces are 186 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,559 Speaker 1: blocking their entry. It does seem that that is where 187 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 1: the international media's eyes are focused, at least for now. 188 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,839 Speaker 2: This war is ever changing and certainly changes on a 189 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 2: day to day basis, but we're here to take you 190 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 2: through every update that occurs and also any sense that 191 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 2: we're edging closer to the end. To keep on top 192 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 2: of the day's news and any updates in this area 193 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 2: and across the world. Follow our Instagram at the Daily os. 194 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 2: It's wherever three hundred and thirty thousand ozsies get their 195 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 2: news every day, and we'd love to have you over there.