1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,119 Speaker 1: Well, we know the Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi is set 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: to tell Donald Trump that Australia is doing its part 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: on defense spending as he prepares for his first meeting 4 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: with the United States President. The Prime Minister expected to 5 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,479 Speaker 1: meet with the President Donald Trump tomorrow, as I understand it, 6 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 1: on the sidelines of the g seventh Summers in Canada, 7 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: amid growing uncertainty about the future of the UCAS Pact. 8 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: Now we know it is also being reported this morning 9 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: that US officials say President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli 10 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: plan to kill Israel's supreme leader as the Israel Iran 11 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: conflict continues. Now there is a lot to cover off. 12 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: Joining us on the show right now, as the Australian 13 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:48,959 Speaker 1: Strategic Policy Institute's Senior analyst in Defense strategy, doctor Malcolm Davis, 14 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: Good morning to you, doctor Davis. 15 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 2: Good morning. 16 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: It's good to have you on the show. And I'll 17 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: tell you what. There is a lot happening around the 18 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: world at the moment. We know the Prime story is 19 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: set to have his first meeting with Donald Trump. What 20 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 1: do you think is going to be on the agenda? 21 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 2: Well, clearly, I think UCUS is the number one priority 22 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 2: but also trade and tariffs I think are the other 23 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:17,039 Speaker 2: issues that really need to be addressed. But in terms 24 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 2: of aucus, I think the Prime Minister will be trying 25 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 2: to make the case that that Australia is an important 26 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 2: partner in terms of aucus. I think what Trump will 27 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: be coming back to Albo and saying is, well, you 28 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 2: need to do more to spend more money on defense. 29 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 2: I think that's the problem is that that Alba's going 30 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 2: in there claiming, well, you know, we're currently spending two 31 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 2: point oh five percent of GDP on defense and we'll 32 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 2: go up to two point three three percent by twenty 33 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 2: thirty three. The Trump administration, quite rightly will say that's 34 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 2: not enough and it's not soon enough. So I think 35 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 2: that Albo will come under significant pressure from the Trump 36 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 2: administration to do more in terms of defense. If he 37 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 2: resists that pressure, then that could undermine the outcome of 38 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 2: the Orchest review and potentially leave us in a very 39 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: difficult situation. If the Trump administration wouldn't walk away from 40 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 2: UCAST but would potentially delay the delivery of the first 41 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 2: Virginia submarine. 42 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: What could that mean then for Australia. Because I know 43 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: a lot of people listening you know, we hear these 44 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: discussions happening, but we don't really know what it's all 45 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 1: going to mean. Then, you know, if it doesn't go ahead. 46 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: Well, look, if for some reason, the Trump administration decided 47 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 2: to delay the delivery of the first of between three 48 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 2: and five the Junior class submarines in the twenty thirties, 49 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 2: that would leave us with a significant capability gap in 50 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 2: terms of undersea warfare. We have six Columns class submarines 51 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 2: at the moment, but they are rather elderly now. They 52 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 2: are being upgraded in a process known as LOT, a 53 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 2: life of type enhancement, but LOT probably wouldn't keep them 54 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 2: viable capability into the twenty forties. So we would then 55 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 2: suffer from a significant capability gap if those Virginia class 56 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 2: submarines were not available as per the optimal pathway. 57 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 1: So do you think we could wind up in a 58 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,839 Speaker 1: situation over the next twenty four hours or so when 59 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:19,920 Speaker 1: Anthony Albanesi does meet with the US President where we 60 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: could see some further announcements around defense spending, because there 61 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 1: does seem to be a lot riding. 62 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 2: On these I would hope, so I mean, I would 63 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 2: hope that the Prime Minister would recognize that the government 64 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 2: does need to do more on defense spending, that an 65 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: aspiration of two point three three percent by twenty thirty 66 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 2: three is too little, too late, particularly when the threats 67 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 2: that we're facing are not out into the twenty thirties. 68 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 2: They're here and now. We are in the most challenging 69 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 2: times since the end of the Second World War, and 70 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 2: the government does need to be doing more now to 71 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: actually respond to the threats that are here and now, 72 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 2: rather than assuming that nothing bad happens this decade and 73 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 2: that we somehow have still ten years of strategic warning 74 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 2: time before a major threat happens. 75 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: And then how do you think the Northern Territory or 76 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:16,799 Speaker 1: North Australia potentially comes into play when we speak about 77 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 1: those threats. 78 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 2: Look, I think the Northern Territory and Northern Australia is 79 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 2: the key strategic and operational area for Australia. It needs 80 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 2: to be invested in by the government in terms of 81 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 2: defense facilities. Those defense facilities need to be hardened and 82 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 2: protected from the sorts of threats we are facing. And 83 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 2: let's be clear, we are talking about long range Chinese 84 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 2: missile capabilities that could strike at northern Australian defense bases 85 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 2: from the South China Sea and destroy those bases. So 86 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 2: there needs to be, for example, an investment in integrated 87 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 2: era and missile defense capabilities that needs to be accelerated. 88 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 2: There needs to be hardening of the existing facilities to 89 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 2: make them more resilient, and there needs to be better infrastructuring. 90 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 2: Journal So I think that the government needs to think 91 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,359 Speaker 2: seriously about how it's going to fight from the north, 92 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 2: how it's going to project military power from the North 93 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 2: well forward, from Australia's maritime and their approaches. It's no 94 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:21,359 Speaker 2: good simply being able to defend the immediate offshore area. 95 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 2: You have to project at hemispheric ranges and the government 96 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 2: needs to do more in terms of spending money on 97 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 2: defense to achieve this. 98 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 1: Malcolm. We also know over the course of the weekend, 99 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: obviously we saw the situation with Iran and Israel really escalate. 100 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 1: What does that mean more broadly, I guess when you 101 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: look at the uncertainty around the world currently. 102 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 2: I think it just reinforces the message that the government 103 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 2: is saying itself, which is that we're in the most 104 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 2: challenging strategic environment since the end of the Second World war. 105 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 2: We now have a major war occurring in Europe with 106 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 2: the Russian invasion of your Krane. We have a major 107 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 2: war occurring in the Middue East now between Iran and 108 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 2: ira and Israel. And we have the conflict obviously going 109 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 2: on in Gaza as well. We have China building up 110 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:17,359 Speaker 2: its military capabilities in a manner that is sort of 111 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 2: unforeseen and basically highly threatening to the region. We have 112 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 2: North Korea building up rapid large numbers of nuclear weapons. 113 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 2: We have Russia threatening NATO. All of these things are 114 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:32,600 Speaker 2: happening simultaneously. I would argue that we are in a 115 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 2: pre war period akin to the late nineteen thirties, and 116 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 2: yes that the actors have changed and the technology has 117 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 2: moved on. 118 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: But. 119 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 2: The objectives of our adversaries are still the same, and 120 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 2: so we need to start preparing for the possibility of 121 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 2: a much larger war occurring within this decade. 122 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: I mean, like, I know that what Donald Trump is 123 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: obviously talking about when you talk about Australia's defense spend, 124 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: and you know, we talk about the impact that that 125 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 1: would then have on Australia's budget in terms of, you know, 126 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 1: how that money could be invested into age care, and 127 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: other things. But I mean, Malcolm, when you look at 128 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: what you've just said to us, and we look more 129 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: broadly at what's happening around the world, it sounds like 130 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: it's pretty important that additional money is in fact spent 131 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: when it comes to defense for Australia. 132 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 2: Look, the single most important responsibility and obligation of any 133 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 2: government is the defense of the nation. That goes above trade, 134 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 2: It goes above cost of living, it goes above housing, 135 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 2: it goes above education, and so on and so forth. 136 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 2: If the government does not spend sufficiently on defense, and 137 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 2: we end up losing the next war, then the cost 138 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 2: to the nation will be far greater than what would 139 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 2: have been the case that we actually had spent that 140 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 2: money in the first place, because potentially, in that scenario, 141 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 2: if we're talking about China, we lose our status as 142 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 2: a liberal democratic state. We become essentially dominated by an 143 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 2: aggressive Chinese hedgeomonic state that dominates the region. And in 144 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 2: twenty twenty they sent us a list of fourteen demands 145 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 2: with basically to bring the relationship back on track. If 146 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 2: we'd signed those fourteen demands, then Australia would not be 147 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 2: a free level democracy today. I put it to you 148 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 2: that if Australia and its allies, including the United States, 149 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 2: were to lose the next war over the Taiwan Straits, 150 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 2: for example, then the Chinese will be coming to us 151 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 2: with many such lists and we would then be paying 152 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 2: a much higher cost in more intangible terms than just money. 153 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: So I mean it sounds as though Dr Davis said 154 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: today or tomorrow I should say when the Prime Minister 155 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: is meeting with the US President, I mean, any ability 156 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: I guess that we've got to negotiate around things like 157 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: trade tariffs or trade in tariffs is going to be 158 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 1: It's going to be sort of dependent, I suppose on 159 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: those discussions around defense. 160 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 2: Look, I trade and the traff's issue is very important, 161 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 2: don't get me wrong, yo, but the Prime Minister does 162 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 2: need to focus on that as well. But I think 163 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 2: the whole issue of defense and national security is the 164 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 2: most important issue here, and in particular ensuring that we 165 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 2: demonstrate to the Americans that we are prepared to pull 166 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 2: our weight and that means increasing defense spending. I mean 167 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 2: Peter Haggsef, US Secretary of Defense, made it very clear 168 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 2: that he wanted Australia to go up to three point 169 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 2: five percent of GDP on defense as soon as possible, 170 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,439 Speaker 2: and I think HEGXF is correct, that's what we need 171 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 2: to be doing. And as soon as possible doesn't mean 172 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 2: in ten years time. As soon as possible means one 173 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 2: to two years. Okay, So therefore the Prime Minister needs 174 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 2: to recognize that they do need to do more. They 175 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 2: do need to spend more on defense in anticipation of 176 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 2: real threats that are coming up fast, and ensure that 177 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 2: we're working with the Americans. ORCUS is a big part 178 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 2: of that. Obviously, need to make sure that the Americans 179 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 2: stay on board UCUST, but we need to do our 180 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: bet as well. We can't freeload off the Americans. 181 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: I was actually going to say to you as well, 182 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: doctor Davis. I mean, what do you say to those 183 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 1: who might be listening this morning, thinking, you know, how 184 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,719 Speaker 1: do you negotiate with somebody like Donald Trump who can 185 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: change his mind relatively quickly. 186 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 2: Well, that's I mean, that's another challenge for us in 187 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 2: the sense that we do have a more unpredictable transactional 188 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 2: present in the Oval Office. That adds to the strategic uncertainty, 189 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 2: in the strategic risk that we're facing. If we had 190 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 2: someone you know, like a Biden figure or a Kamala 191 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 2: Harrison might be easier, but we have Trump, and so 192 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:45,439 Speaker 2: therefore we have to work harder with the Trump administration 193 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:49,560 Speaker 2: to essentially, as Trump would say, do a deal. And 194 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,199 Speaker 2: I think that it's going to be an ongoing challenge 195 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 2: for us. We can't just throw up our hands and 196 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 2: say we'll give up because Trump's a difficult character to 197 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 2: work with. We have to work with that present whilst 198 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 2: he's in office and his administration, and we simply don't 199 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 2: have a choice in that. 200 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 1: With that, well, I'll tell you what, doctor Malcolm Davis. 201 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: I always appreciate your time. I appreciate your ability to 202 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: break things down a little bit more simply for us 203 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 1: to understand as well. Thank you very much for having 204 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: a chat with me today. Okay, thank you, thank you, 205 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 1: Thanks so much.