WEBVTT - How do you measure world peace?

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this is this is the Daily OS.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Daily ohs oh, now it makes sense.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning and welcome to the Daily ODS. It's Thursday,

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<v Speaker 2>the thirteenth of June.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Emma, I'm sam.

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<v Speaker 2>Global levels of peace deteriorated at historic rates over the

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<v Speaker 2>past year, according to new data from the Institute for

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<v Speaker 2>Economics and Peace. The independent think tank compared levels of

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<v Speaker 2>peacefulness across one hundred and sixty three countries for its

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<v Speaker 2>annual Global Peace Index, and it found global conflicts have

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<v Speaker 2>reached their highest rate since World War Two.

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<v Speaker 1>But how do you actually define peace and how is

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<v Speaker 1>it measured? Well? To understand more about the latest Global

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<v Speaker 1>Peace Index, you're going to hear from Michael Collins. He's

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<v Speaker 1>the executive director Americas of the Institute for Economics and Peace.

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<v Speaker 1>He's going to join Emma in today's But first, m

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<v Speaker 1>what is making headlines.

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<v Speaker 2>Former NROL player Jared Haynes has won an appeal to

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<v Speaker 2>have his sexual assault conviction quashed. It comes more than

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<v Speaker 2>a year after the former Paramatta Eels star was found

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<v Speaker 2>guilty of sexually assaulting a woman in twenty eighteen and

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<v Speaker 2>sentenced to a maximum of four years and nine months

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<v Speaker 2>in prison. The judge in the appeal court ordered a

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<v Speaker 2>new trial. If this happens, it'll be the fourth time

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<v Speaker 2>this case is tried. Haynes continues to deny the allegations

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<v Speaker 2>against him.

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<v Speaker 1>One in seven adults have been the victim of sextortion,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a form of sexual abuse that involves threats

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<v Speaker 1>to share intimate images or videos of a person without

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<v Speaker 1>their consent. R MIT University research has surveyed sixteen thousand

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<v Speaker 1>people around the world. The study found men were more

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<v Speaker 1>likely to report sextortion from a colleague or caerra than women.

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<v Speaker 1>Researchers also found sextortion was common in intimate partner abuse

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<v Speaker 1>as a means to coerce victims.

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<v Speaker 2>Millions of people in America could have their medical debts

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<v Speaker 2>wiped from their credit reports under a proposal by US

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<v Speaker 2>President Joe Biden and Vice President Karmala Harris. According to

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<v Speaker 2>the White House, a raising health debts would impact over

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<v Speaker 2>fifteen million Americans, improving their credit scores to allow them

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<v Speaker 2>a better chance at being approved for bank loans, including mortgages.

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<v Speaker 1>And today's good news, one of the world's biggest Tyrannosaurus

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<v Speaker 1>rex fossils is set to be displayed at the Melbourne Museum.

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<v Speaker 1>The sixty six million year old fossil, aptly named Victoria,

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<v Speaker 1>was discovered in twenty thirteen in the US state of

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<v Speaker 1>South Dakota. At twelve meters long, it's one of the

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<v Speaker 1>most complete t rex fossils in the world and will

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<v Speaker 1>be the first real t rex fossil ever exhibited in

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<v Speaker 1>the state of Victoria. There's also a new discovery from

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<v Speaker 1>the dinosaur world. Actually, they found this dinosaur that started

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<v Speaker 1>saying as many words as possible, Oh, no, Ethosaurus.

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<v Speaker 3>Ah Sam.

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<v Speaker 2>We were on a roll there and you had to

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<v Speaker 2>go and take it to that place. Global conflicts, increased

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<v Speaker 2>military spending, and broader economic pressures are some of the

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<v Speaker 2>reasons behind a decline in overall levels of peacefulness across

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<v Speaker 2>the world. That's according to the Global Peace Index. Now

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<v Speaker 2>since two thousand and eight, this index has been using

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<v Speaker 2>a range of indicators to analyze the country's involvement in

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<v Speaker 2>conflict to quantify levels of peace. The twenty twenty four

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<v Speaker 2>Index was published this week and to talk us through

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<v Speaker 2>the results, trends, impacts, and bigger picture learnings from these findings,

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<v Speaker 2>we're joined by Michael Collins. Michael is the executive director

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<v Speaker 2>Americas of the Institute for Economics and Peace, the think

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<v Speaker 2>tank behind the index. Michael, Welcome to the pod.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you very much for having Meeama.

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<v Speaker 2>We're talking today about the Global Peace Index. First of all,

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<v Speaker 2>I wanted to understand what is the index.

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<v Speaker 5>So the Global Peace Index is essentially a method or

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<v Speaker 5>a tool to be able to measure changes in peacefulness globally.

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<v Speaker 5>So peace for the most part, at least historically, has

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<v Speaker 5>been sort of thought about, something fuzzy around the edges.

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<v Speaker 5>Everyone has their own definition of peacefulness. So it's very

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<v Speaker 5>much an aim to be able to sort of provide

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<v Speaker 5>a bit of a data driven perspective as it pertains

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<v Speaker 5>to peace and changes in peacefulness around the world.

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<v Speaker 3>So how do you define peacefulness?

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<v Speaker 5>So one of the easiest places to start, or at

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<v Speaker 5>least where we chose to start with this is measuring

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<v Speaker 5>in this instance the opposites, and we start by measuring

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<v Speaker 5>this absence of violence or fear of violence.

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<v Speaker 4>So we take things like homicide measures, for example.

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<v Speaker 5>Numbers of violent demonstrations, the amount of conflict in countries,

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<v Speaker 5>the levels of incarceration, and then we bring all of

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<v Speaker 5>those different metrics together. The premise of this is the

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<v Speaker 5>most peaceful countries are the ones that have the lowest

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<v Speaker 5>measures in all of those different indicators as well.

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<v Speaker 2>So essentially the lower the score, the more peaceful the place.

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<v Speaker 4>That's absolutely right.

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<v Speaker 5>So to make all of this different data comparable, what

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<v Speaker 5>we do is we do go through this process of

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<v Speaker 5>banding scores everything from one to a five. It's a

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<v Speaker 5>bit of a convoluted and complex process, but it really

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<v Speaker 5>helps kind of simplify what are a lot of complex

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<v Speaker 5>sort of dynamics and indicators.

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<v Speaker 4>In a nutshell.

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, if you're living in a five, things aren't so great.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now, we're talking today, specifically about the latest findings,

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<v Speaker 2>the twenty twenty four Index out this week. Can you

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<v Speaker 2>talk me through some of the key insights from this

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<v Speaker 2>year's report.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, absolutely.

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<v Speaker 5>First off is that peacefulness is deteriorating in particular conflict measures,

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<v Speaker 5>and we're still those conflict measures, you know, or those

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<v Speaker 5>conflicts are essentially becoming more and more difficult to resolve

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<v Speaker 5>over time. So you know, we're looking at the largest

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<v Speaker 5>number of conflicts that we have seen since the end

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<v Speaker 5>of World War II, essentially, so fifty six conflicts around

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<v Speaker 5>the world. Yes, conflicts such as Gaza and Ukraine. Those

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<v Speaker 5>countries in the headlines do weigh significantly on those particular drivers.

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<v Speaker 5>There are lots of other conflicts out there, so the Sudan, Ethiopia,

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<v Speaker 5>Myanmar that we also hear about, but as well as

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<v Speaker 5>many others that we not hearing about at all. The

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<v Speaker 5>last point I sort of wanted to make on that

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<v Speaker 5>is we've dealt in this year a bit on a

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<v Speaker 5>lot of those dynamics.

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<v Speaker 4>We see that a lot more countries are more.

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<v Speaker 5>Readily getting involved in other countries conflict, whether that be

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<v Speaker 5>in direct support of the government in that country or

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<v Speaker 5>alternatively armed groups within that country as well, and that's

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<v Speaker 5>creating quite a mess. So if we look back in

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<v Speaker 5>the days of when there was you know, essentially one superpower,

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<v Speaker 5>when the world was a lot more unique polar we

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<v Speaker 5>could see that in terms of conflicts, a lot more

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<v Speaker 5>conflicts were resolved, a lot more conflicts were resolved bilaterally.

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<v Speaker 5>So looking back in the nineteen seventies, forty nine percent,

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<v Speaker 5>almost fifty percent of all conflicts were essentially resolved by

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<v Speaker 5>one party being victorious. These days that's down to less

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<v Speaker 5>than ten percent. The amount of peace agreements that assigned

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<v Speaker 5>these days has also deteriorated significantly. Then result of this

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<v Speaker 5>is that the whole lot of unresolved conflicts around there

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<v Speaker 5>as well. And it's those smaller unresolved conflict to have

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<v Speaker 5>the potential to be able to sort of beef up

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<v Speaker 5>and to blow up into the major conflicts that we're

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<v Speaker 5>seeing today.

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<v Speaker 2>That figure you mentioned, the highest number of countries engaged

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<v Speaker 2>in conflict since World War Two is pretty staggering. How

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<v Speaker 2>significant is the scale of that number of conflicts and

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<v Speaker 2>why now?

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<v Speaker 5>So again, I mean, I think that this is all progressive.

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<v Speaker 5>To put things in contexts slightly. I mean, we are

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<v Speaker 5>talking in terms of overall battle deaths and numbers that

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<v Speaker 5>are a lot lower than what we would have seen

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<v Speaker 5>in a Cold War, for example. So in terms of

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<v Speaker 5>overall battle deaths, that said, we've seen an increase in

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<v Speaker 5>that in the last two or three years.

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<v Speaker 4>So since the inception of the Global Piece Index.

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<v Speaker 5>We're sure that the record in battle deest this was

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<v Speaker 5>back in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three was close

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<v Speaker 5>to this mark. Fifty thousand people have died in the

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<v Speaker 5>first four months of this year, so we're perhaps going

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<v Speaker 5>to hit a new sort of record for the Global

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<v Speaker 5>Peace Index, but going back in time, we're still lower

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<v Speaker 5>on those overall numbers.

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<v Speaker 4>But again, this.

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<v Speaker 5>Really speaks to this broader set of conflicts that there

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<v Speaker 5>was a whole likelihood now that any one of those

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<v Speaker 5>individual conflicts which yesterday was a minor conflict. We think

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<v Speaker 5>about Ethiopia, we think about Ukraine, if we think about Gaza,

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<v Speaker 5>those are all minor conflicts back in twenty nineteen, and

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<v Speaker 5>look where we are today.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you expect to see that trend of what were

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<v Speaker 2>previously minor conflicts becoming major ones? Do you expect to

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<v Speaker 2>see that trend continuing intensifying into more record breaking numbers

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<v Speaker 2>next year?

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<v Speaker 4>Yes.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean it's always a difficult prediction to make, but

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<v Speaker 5>in terms of the law of large numbers and what

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<v Speaker 5>we're seeing in terms of trends, that is definitely what

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<v Speaker 5>we would expect that out of some of those smaller conflicts,

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<v Speaker 5>we would see more major conflicts arise. Unless anything radically

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<v Speaker 5>changes on the world stage, I really don't see that

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<v Speaker 5>happening anytime soon. I think that there's going back to

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<v Speaker 5>the UN again. There's a lot of stagnation. There is

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<v Speaker 5>definitely a breakdown in diplomacy and increase in polarization. The

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<v Speaker 5>same level of polarization that we're seeing in civil society,

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<v Speaker 5>we're seeing very much in diplomatic circles.

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<v Speaker 4>Term there are, of.

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<v Speaker 2>Course dozens of global conflicts at play with the data

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<v Speaker 2>this year, but I think it would probably be remiss

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<v Speaker 2>of us not to dive a little deeper into Gaza,

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<v Speaker 2>the conflict there. Of course, you've been tracking these findings

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<v Speaker 2>over a period of years. How have you seen things

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<v Speaker 2>change and shift given the intensification of that conflict.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, definitely an intensification in terms of the terrorist attack,

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<v Speaker 5>which was the largest terrorist attack worldwide since September eleventh,

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<v Speaker 5>and then of course the Israeli response in Gaza with

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<v Speaker 5>over thirty thousand Palestinians killed to date. So certainly a

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<v Speaker 5>massive escalation in a very short period of time. But

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<v Speaker 5>if you look at the overall tensions that have been

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<v Speaker 5>building between Israel and Palestine more than one decade. Over

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<v Speaker 5>the last fifteen years, we've seen that overall sentiment and

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<v Speaker 5>negative news and negative stories between one country another has

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<v Speaker 5>progressively been increasing over that time.

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<v Speaker 4>Although it's always.

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<v Speaker 5>A shock when we see this quick acceleration, the underlying

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<v Speaker 5>fabric and the relations in these two countries have been

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<v Speaker 5>deteriorating for quite some time already.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm interested in understanding the scope of military spending in

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<v Speaker 2>contributing towards these results. How does military spending kind of

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<v Speaker 2>stack up compared to peace building or peacekeeping spending internationally.

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<v Speaker 5>So militarization is something that we would track as a

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<v Speaker 5>negative in this instance.

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<v Speaker 4>The exception to that would be precisely what.

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<v Speaker 5>You mentioned, Emma, which is peace keeping or peace building

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<v Speaker 5>contributions primarily through UN frameworks which are more consensus based,

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<v Speaker 5>basically as a proxy to a commitment to peace building. Now,

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<v Speaker 5>whether that's done at the same time or not is

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<v Speaker 5>the or question. And I think a lot of the

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<v Speaker 5>increasing militarization that we're seeing over the recent three or

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<v Speaker 5>four years is in response to specifically this large amount

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<v Speaker 5>of conflict that we're now seeing around the world. So

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<v Speaker 5>it's a batto logical response as well. But ultimately war

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<v Speaker 5>doesn't pay. We do a lot of research around the

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<v Speaker 5>economic value of peace. Over one hundred countries became more

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<v Speaker 5>militarized last year, eighty six of them increased their military expenditure.

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<v Speaker 5>So it's unfortunate that we're seeing that versaal in a

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<v Speaker 5>trend that had actually been improving over the prior ten years.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the interesting findings to me was learning that

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<v Speaker 2>the US has more significant military power than China. Did

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<v Speaker 2>that come as a surprise to you and the team?

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<v Speaker 4>I don't think it came so much as a surprise

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<v Speaker 4>to me.

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<v Speaker 5>I spent a lot of time living in the US,

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<v Speaker 5>so I spent a lot of time hearing how great

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<v Speaker 5>the American military is.

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<v Speaker 3>Makes sense for context for us here at home. Asia.

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<v Speaker 2>Pacific tensions are you know, a big part of the

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<v Speaker 2>new cycle, and that certainly dominates the dialogue here from

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<v Speaker 2>a defense perspective, and a lot of foreign spending and

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<v Speaker 2>military spending tends to be built on a sort of

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<v Speaker 2>rhetoric about the imposing fear and growth and power of China.

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<v Speaker 5>And again that is totally understandable, Yes, and I think

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<v Speaker 5>Americans would be relieved to see that they have still

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<v Speaker 5>three times the capability at least along those lines than

0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:53.079
<v Speaker 5>China would have. But one of the interesting things I

0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:56.400
<v Speaker 5>should say is actually the significant increase in military capacity

0:11:56.480 --> 0:11:59.000
<v Speaker 5>that China has had over the last five years. So

0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:02.439
<v Speaker 5>although it's still well below the United States, it's growing

0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:04.400
<v Speaker 5>in capacity very very quickly.

0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:07.200
<v Speaker 2>Indeed, I want to talk to you about some of

0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:12.080
<v Speaker 2>the more hopeful findings from the index. Who or where

0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:16.200
<v Speaker 2>was the most peaceful country in twenty twenty three.

0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:19.480
<v Speaker 5>So the most peaceful country in twenty twenty three. Last

0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:22.640
<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty four was Iceland. Iceland has been the most

0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:25.920
<v Speaker 5>peaceful country since the inception of the Global Peace Index.

0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:28.960
<v Speaker 4>In fact, it's so far ahead that it would take

0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:32.080
<v Speaker 4>quite a bit of deterioration for that to actually swap.

0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:35.080
<v Speaker 5>As far as we can see, there's not any magical

0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:38.640
<v Speaker 5>transformative power of being in Iceland. It's just an accumulation

0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 5>of circumstances. In fact, Iceland did deteriorate and peacefulness this year,

0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.440
<v Speaker 5>including increase in violent demonstrations for example.

0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:45.640
<v Speaker 4>And there are a lot of.

0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:51.439
<v Speaker 5>Other peaceful countries around the world, so Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland.

0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:55.240
<v Speaker 5>Australia does relatively well as well. Unfortunately, the United States

0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:58.480
<v Speaker 5>does quite poorly currently run T one hundred and thirty second, so.

0:12:58.440 --> 0:12:59.720
<v Speaker 4>Not great there.

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.280
<v Speaker 5>But one of the most interesting things that the Global

0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:05.520
<v Speaker 5>Peace Index allows us to do is to set that

0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:09.240
<v Speaker 5>sort of benchmark for peacefulness. So this forms the basis

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.120
<v Speaker 5>of our positive peace work, which is essentially a statistical

0:13:12.160 --> 0:13:14.920
<v Speaker 5>analysis to be able to ascertain what are the socioeconomic

0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.480
<v Speaker 5>and attitudinal factors that create a sustained peace.

0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:19.440
<v Speaker 3>So what is Iceland getting right?

0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:22.080
<v Speaker 2>I feel like countries like Iceland pop up all the

0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:24.200
<v Speaker 2>time in these global studies.

0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:27.560
<v Speaker 3>What are the Icelandics doing that We're not?

0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:28.520
<v Speaker 4>Well?

0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:30.760
<v Speaker 5>As I mentioned, New Zealand is pretty up there, as

0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.439
<v Speaker 5>is Australia. Hanna did us pretty well too, and most

0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:36.960
<v Speaker 5>of the European countries are quite peaceful too. Surprisingly, one

0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:38.760
<v Speaker 5>of the things that I have noted in this particular

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.840
<v Speaker 5>index is that some of the Scandinavian countries have dropped

0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:44.040
<v Speaker 5>off a bit, so perhaps not as true.

0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:44.600
<v Speaker 4>As it once was.

0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:46.920
<v Speaker 5>I mean, if we think back using the same metrics,

0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:49.560
<v Speaker 5>Europe would be one of the least peaceful countries if

0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:51.480
<v Speaker 5>we looked at it back in the days of World

0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:52.560
<v Speaker 5>War II, for example.

0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:52.880
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:56.079
<v Speaker 5>Rather than concentrating on Iceland specifically, I'd love to be

0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:57.880
<v Speaker 5>able to broaden it out to what we see helps

0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:01.320
<v Speaker 5>create sustained peaceful countries over sort of five hundred socio

0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.960
<v Speaker 5>economic indicators that we see share a strong statistical correlation.

0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:08.400
<v Speaker 5>As these improve, we see that peacefulness improves on the

0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:10.280
<v Speaker 5>other end, And there's a whole bunch of stuff, so

0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.160
<v Speaker 5>you can't really single out an individual one, but we

0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:15.520
<v Speaker 5>can broadly throw them into eight buckets.

0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:17.560
<v Speaker 4>Right. These are what we call the eight pillars of.

0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:21.640
<v Speaker 5>Positive peace, essentially the characteristics of peaceful societies. This includes

0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 5>a well functioning government, equitable distribution of resources, free flow

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:29.560
<v Speaker 5>of information, good relations with neighbors, high loves of human capital,

0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.160
<v Speaker 5>acceptance to the rights of others, low levels of corruption,

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:33.960
<v Speaker 5>and a sound business environment.

0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.920
<v Speaker 2>So given that, what does Australia need to do to

0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:38.840
<v Speaker 2>improve its peacefulness?

0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 5>We definitely offer something like the Positive Peace Framework as

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:47.040
<v Speaker 5>a tool for individual countries, societies, communities, neighborhoods and even

0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 5>organizations to be able to assess where they fall on

0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:54.840
<v Speaker 5>the peace diagram and to score themselves around these particular pillars.

0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:57.360
<v Speaker 5>And the reason that we often don't participate in direct

0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:00.360
<v Speaker 5>policy recommendations is precisely because of a lot of this

0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:03.760
<v Speaker 5>positive peace building is contextual in nature, so a lot

0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:06.880
<v Speaker 5>of societal norms are radically different. Different countries have their

0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:11.680
<v Speaker 5>own path dependences, their own historical elements, their own purposes,

0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:14.720
<v Speaker 5>their own aims. In that sense, I turn the question

0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.320
<v Speaker 5>back to you, Emma, now that I've presented.

0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:18.880
<v Speaker 4>The eight Pillars of Positive Fears. So what do you

0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:20.160
<v Speaker 4>think Australia should do.

0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 2>Now that you have presented the pillars? Michael, I'm wondering

0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:28.680
<v Speaker 2>if climate change is disrupting peacefulness perhaps in a country

0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:32.480
<v Speaker 2>like Australia, where our natural landscape seems to bring so

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:34.960
<v Speaker 2>much pride and joy to a lot.

0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.160
<v Speaker 3>Of people's life. I wonder if that has a role

0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:37.600
<v Speaker 3>to play.

0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:39.800
<v Speaker 5>It does in the sense that that is something that

0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:42.880
<v Speaker 5>we can very much validate through our work. So parallel

0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:45.400
<v Speaker 5>to the Global Peace Index. For the last five years now,

0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:48.120
<v Speaker 5>we've been producing a report called Ecological Threat Report.

0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:50.720
<v Speaker 4>Now it doesn't look at climate change uniquely.

0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 5>What it does is it looks at levels of food

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:56.960
<v Speaker 5>and security, water stress, natural disasters, and rapid population growth,

0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:59.520
<v Speaker 5>all of these things other than rapid population growth and

0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.760
<v Speaker 5>perhaps quakes, of things that could be and are aggravated

0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:05.640
<v Speaker 5>by climate change. The reason I'm bringing that up is

0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 5>because we do see a very close correlation between ecological

0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:12.320
<v Speaker 5>degradation and deteriorations in peacefulness as well.

0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:15.000
<v Speaker 2>I do wonder given that we're in the midst of

0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 2>an historic election year global elections around the country, hundreds

0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:23.440
<v Speaker 2>of millions of people casting votes across the year, if

0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:29.720
<v Speaker 2>that will play a role in negatively or positively affecting peacefulness.

0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:31.040
<v Speaker 4>It's a very good question for us.

0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.120
<v Speaker 5>It fundamentally comes down to what are the underlying resilience

0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:37.000
<v Speaker 5>measures underpinning that. We often talk about tipping points, right,

0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:38.800
<v Speaker 5>if we see that there is a country the lower

0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:42.400
<v Speaker 5>levels of resilience that may be scraping by and an

0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.720
<v Speaker 5>election or the result from an election maybe lights the

0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:49.440
<v Speaker 5>spark of revolt. As you know, this year, most of

0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:52.800
<v Speaker 5>the world is going to the elections, so building on

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:54.840
<v Speaker 5>the fact that we're seeing this increasing amount of conflict,

0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.280
<v Speaker 5>we definitely see additional risk there.

0:16:57.720 --> 0:16:59.800
<v Speaker 2>Michael, thank you so much for joining us on the

0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:01.680
<v Speaker 2>days and thank you for your time.

0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:06.000
<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much for joining us on the Daily Ohs

0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.439
<v Speaker 1>this morning. I really enjoyed that episode. Thank you m

0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:11.280
<v Speaker 1>for that interview. If you learn something from today's episode,

0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:13.800
<v Speaker 1>don't forget to hit subscribe. So there's a tdy eight

0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:17.080
<v Speaker 1>episode waiting for you every weekday morning. We'll be back

0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:20.439
<v Speaker 1>again tomorrow for your Friday episode. Until then, have a

0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:31.800
<v Speaker 1>great Thursday. My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a

0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:36.560
<v Speaker 1>proud Arunda Bungelung Calcoton woman from Gadigol country. The Daily

0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:39.680
<v Speaker 1>oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands

0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:42.879
<v Speaker 1>of the Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:45.879
<v Speaker 1>and Torres Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects

0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:49.080
<v Speaker 1>to the first peoples of these countries, both past and present.