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Speaker 1: Already and this is the daily This is the daily ours.

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Speaker 1: Oh now it makes sense. Good morning and welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Daily OS. It's Tuesday, the twenty second of October.

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Speaker 2: I'm Sam, I'm emma.

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Speaker 1: This week, Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the peak of

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Speaker 1: inflation has passed and the worst of the recent economic

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Speaker 1: turbulence is behind us. Yesterday, new consumer data from NAB

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Speaker 1: echoed that sentiment, reporting more optimism amongst Australian consumers. But

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Speaker 1: does that match the reality for young Australians? How are

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Speaker 1: we going to know when the cost of living crisis

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Speaker 1: is over? On today's episode, I'm going to be joined

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Speaker 1: by Greg Jericho, he's the Australian Institute's chief economist, to

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Speaker 1: discuss so what this new outlook means for you? But first, Emma,

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Speaker 1: what is making headlines?

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Speaker 2: Quantus has been all to pay three former employees a

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Speaker 2: total of one hundred and seventy thousand dollars after it

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Speaker 2: was found to have illegally sacked around seventeen hundred workers

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Speaker 2: during the pandemic. In twenty twenty, Quantus fired baggage staff

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Speaker 2: across ten of its airports before outsourcing their work to

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Speaker 2: third party contractors. The Transport Workers' Union launched an unfair

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Speaker 2: dismissal case which Quantas unsuccessfully appealed twice in the Federal

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Speaker 2: Court this week, just as Michael Lee found three employees

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Speaker 2: should be compensated thirty grand, forty grand and one hundred

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars respectively for the distress, hurt, humiliation or other

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Speaker 2: emotional harm they experienced after being fired. In a statement,

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Speaker 2: Quantus said the three cases quote will now be used

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Speaker 2: as the basis to determine the individual compensation payments for

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Speaker 2: any of the remaining seventeen hundred staff who are eligible,

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Speaker 2: which the union suggested could mean a payout of up

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Speaker 2: to one hundred million dollars in total.

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Speaker 1: A sixty two year old man has been arrested in

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Speaker 1: Canberra while protesting at the Australian War Memorial during a

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Speaker 1: visit by King Charles and Queen Camilla. Dozens of protesters

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Speaker 1: gathered at the Royal visitors tool stops in the nation's

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Speaker 1: capital yesterday, with some carrying signs saying decolonize. At an

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Speaker 1: event in Parliament House, Independent Senator Lydia Thorpe attempted to

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Speaker 1: approach the King, saying quote, it's not your land, You're

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Speaker 1: not my king, before she was escorted out by security.

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Speaker 1: Following their formal engagements in Canberra. The King and Queen

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Speaker 1: will return to Sydney today where they'll review the Navy

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Speaker 1: fleet before heading onto Samoa for the Commonwealth Head of

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Speaker 1: Governments meeting.

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Speaker 2: Hurricane Oscar has left millions without power after making landfall

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Speaker 2: in Cuba. Heavy storms and wind speeds up to one

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Speaker 2: hundred kilometers an hour shut down the national energy grid

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Speaker 2: four times over two days. While the Energy ministry said

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Speaker 2: it was working to restore power to residents and businesses,

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Speaker 2: Cuban Prime Mister Manuel Marrero Cruz said schools and non

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Speaker 2: essential jobs will be suspended until later this week. The

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Speaker 2: outages follow weeks of blackouts in the island nation. Cuba's

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Speaker 2: government has blamed ongoing outages on US sanctions that it

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Speaker 2: says have made it hard to source fuel and parts

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Speaker 2: for generators.

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Speaker 1: And today's good news, the World Health Organization has declared

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Speaker 1: Egypt is malaria free. Malaria is a disease spread by

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Speaker 1: infected mosquitoes. It's curable, but can cause life threatening symptoms.

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Speaker 1: Egypt's government has spent nearly a century on efforts to

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Speaker 1: eradicate the disease, including making it free to be diagnosed

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Speaker 1: with and treated for malaria for anyone in the country,

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Speaker 1: regardless of their citizenship. WHO Regional Director for the Eastern Mediterranean,

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Speaker 1: Hanan bulki Is said, quote, Egypt has proven that with vision,

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Speaker 1: dedication and unity we can overcome the greatest challenges.

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Speaker 2: So Sam, we have. I've spent many many hours on

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Speaker 2: this podcast talking about the cost of living crisis, how

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Speaker 2: it's being felt in the housing market, at supermarket checkouts,

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Speaker 2: at the petrol bowser. Between comments from the Federal Treasurer

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Speaker 2: Jim Chalmers and some new economic data from NAB, there's

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Speaker 2: now a bit of a sense of optimism that we

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Speaker 2: aren't very familiar with hearing about. Are you surprised?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's kind of a good news economic episode today,

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Speaker 1: which feels funny in twenty twenty four. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: feel like the cost of living crisis still is on

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Speaker 1: the front of everyone's mind. I expect it to be

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Speaker 1: a big issue in the upcoming election that Australia is

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Speaker 1: set to have in the first half of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: But I thought i'd address the facts that we have

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Speaker 1: a positive sentiment from the Treasurer, and we've got some

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Speaker 1: healthy economic data about consumer confidence, and I wanted to

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Speaker 1: break that down with the Australia Institute's Greg Jericho. He's

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Speaker 1: their chief economist and he has a habit of making

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Speaker 1: these things make a bit more sense. So here's that chat. Greg.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us the Daily. I was this morning

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Speaker 1: pleasure to be here.

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Speaker 3: Sam.

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Speaker 1: So, I've got a report in front of me that

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Speaker 1: says that Jim Chalmer's Australia's Treasurer, says that the worst

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Speaker 1: is behind us. I've got some new data from NAB

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Speaker 1: that says that consumers are feeling more confident. In your opinion,

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Speaker 1: do you think the cost of living crisis is over.

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Speaker 3: Look It's over in the sense that, as Jim Chalmer says,

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Speaker 3: the worst is behind us. The problem with the cost

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Speaker 3: of living and inflation is we sort of talk about

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Speaker 3: it in terms of annual growth, but that doesn't mean

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Speaker 3: we can forget what has happened before. So Jim Chalmers

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Speaker 3: is right inflation, the cost of living, the worst is

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Speaker 3: behind us. That doesn't mean we're still not feeling pain

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Speaker 3: of those past couple of years, but I think it's

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Speaker 3: right the consumers should feel a bit more confident because

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Speaker 3: there's certainly no sense that we're going to have inflation

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Speaker 3: rising like it was sort of in twenty twenty two

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Speaker 3: and twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: So what are the big factors that have led to

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Speaker 1: that reduction in inflation since that twenty two twenty three

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Speaker 1: time spot.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, this is a very contested space, but

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Speaker 3: certainly our view has been that what caused it in

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Speaker 3: the first place, and what caused it was big supply

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Speaker 3: side issues coming out of the pandemic. We also had

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Speaker 3: soaring prices due to Russia's invasion in Ukraine, sawing prices

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Speaker 3: in things like gas, petrol, also things like wheat and

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Speaker 3: fertilizer which were a bit sort of under the radar

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Speaker 3: but were certainly raising the cost of things. And also

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Speaker 3: because of those two factors together, of the supply side

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Speaker 3: issues and the invasion, there was this general sense around

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Speaker 3: the world of inflation rising, of prices going up, and

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Speaker 3: a lot of companies around the world in Australia was

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Speaker 3: not excluded from this that had a bit of market power.

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Speaker 3: We're going, oh, now it's a good time to raise

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Speaker 3: prices because everyone kind of thinks that prices are going

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Speaker 3: up and so what we saw in twenty twenty two

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Speaker 3: and twenty twenty three is those company profits rising quite solidly,

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Speaker 3: even in the non mining sector here in Australia. And

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Speaker 3: what we've seen over the past year or so is

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Speaker 3: one those supply side issues are pretty much cleaned up.

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Speaker 3: We're fairly well past the pandemic now, while the Russia's

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Speaker 3: invasion of Ukraine is going on, the impact on prices

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Speaker 3: has certainly abated, and overall there's been this real sort

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Speaker 3: of close look odd companies and how they're behaving. And

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Speaker 3: what we're also seeing is that company profits are not

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Speaker 3: growing as fast and so kind of put those issues altogether,

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Speaker 3: and it translates fairly nicely with inflation coming back down,

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Speaker 3: because it was never a case that inflation was caused

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Speaker 3: by us all having too much money, which is the

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Speaker 3: old sort of nineteen seventies style of inflation where everyone's

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Speaker 3: getting huge, big wage rises, we've got stunks of cash

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Speaker 3: and we're going out and spending like Matt. We were

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Speaker 3: not doing that at all, and yet prices were going up.

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Speaker 3: That's because companies were taking advantage of the situation. So

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Speaker 3: kind of all those issues have kind of abated, and

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Speaker 3: so we're it's sort of coming back to normal. Agan.

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Speaker 1: It's an interesting chat we're having Greg because we know

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Speaker 1: that for young Australians especially, you know tda's audience and

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Speaker 1: those listening, prices haven't come down at supermarkets just yet

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Speaker 1: and there's still a serious anxiety around cost of living.

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Speaker 1: So at what level in the economy do you think

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Speaker 1: that this sentiment is coming through If it's not coming

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Speaker 1: through amongst younger Australians.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this goes to the real heart of the

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Speaker 3: issue with inflation, that prices aren't going to come down,

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Speaker 3: that's the problem. What's going to happen is are not

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Speaker 3: going to go up as fast. And when we talk

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Speaker 3: about cost of living and inflation, we always talk in

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Speaker 3: terms of annual growth. So at its peak, prices were

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Speaker 3: rising around eight percent a year, so everything on average

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Speaker 3: that you're buying was eight percent more expensive than it

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Speaker 3: was a year before. Now the most recent monthly one

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Speaker 3: it's back down to two point seven two point eight,

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Speaker 3: and so that's certainly down, But that doesn't mean that

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Speaker 3: we can forget what has happened in the past. And

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Speaker 3: so if you say, okay, what's happened in the past year, well,

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Speaker 3: everyone's wages on average are gone up around three and

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Speaker 3: a half four percent. Prices have gone up around three

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Speaker 3: and a half four percent, So basically I can buy

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Speaker 3: as much stuff as I could a year ago. Cost

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Speaker 3: of living pressures aren't as bad. But that doesn't take

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Speaker 3: away the fact that over the past sort of four years,

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Speaker 3: the prices of everything has gone up around eighteen percent,

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Speaker 3: and in that time wages have only gone up around

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Speaker 3: eleven percent. So we've got back to a point where

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Speaker 3: we're treading water. But it doesn't discount the fact that

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Speaker 3: we've just had two three years where we've been going backwards.

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Speaker 3: And so even though you know, you might be reading

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Speaker 3: these reports and the treasurer and things are saying, oh,

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Speaker 3: you know, the worst is behind us, that's fine, but

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Speaker 3: it doesn't always mean we're in a great place. It

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Speaker 3: means if you are struggling last year, you're still struggling,

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Speaker 3: you just aren't struggling worse than you were a year

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Speaker 3: ago in a sense on average. So that's always the

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Speaker 3: tricky part with inflation and cost of living, and it's

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Speaker 3: why when you hear politicians say, oh, you know, we've

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Speaker 3: got it back down and things are good on track,

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Speaker 3: and it's like, yeah, but they're still a hell of

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Speaker 3: a lot more expensive that they were three years ago.

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Speaker 3: So unfortunately, we're not going to see prices come down.

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Speaker 3: And this is what younger people will certainly be aware of,

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Speaker 3: is this the cost of the essential items that has

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Speaker 3: risen over the past two three years more than other things.

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Speaker 3: And because younger workers are generally on lower incomes and

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Speaker 3: so most of their income is going towards rent, going

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Speaker 3: towards food bills and so forth, they're the ones who

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Speaker 3: have really hurt from the past couple of years. Whereas

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Speaker 3: your older people who have got savings, who have got

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Speaker 3: good incomes, who spend more of their income on holidays,

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Speaker 3: eating out things that aren't essential, they haven't struggled as

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Speaker 3: much because the prices of those things didn't go up

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Speaker 3: as much as the prices of the essential items.

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Speaker 1: While I've got you, I was listening to the Dollars

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Speaker 1: and Cents podcasts you do for the Australians that you

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Speaker 1: and your discussion around the government's focus and the last

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Speaker 1: kind of We've got two on hidden fees and dynamic pricing.

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Speaker 1: What do you think sits behind that focus for the government.

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Speaker 1: You know they've got this good news of inflation coming

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Speaker 1: down a little bit. They've turned the attention to you know,

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Speaker 1: credit card, debit cards, flights, that kind of stuff. What

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Speaker 1: do you think they're hoping to achieve?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think, you know, they do want to be

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Speaker 3: seen to be doing things to help people's cost of living.

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Speaker 3: And this is not something that's going to have a

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Speaker 3: dramatic effect on inflation, but it's something that people certainly

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Speaker 3: notice and certainly hate. Even though prices might not be

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Speaker 3: going up as much, people still notice the cost of

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Speaker 3: things and so if you can do anything as a

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Speaker 3: government to take off some cost I think that really

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Speaker 3: hits home. But also it's just, you know, it's a

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Speaker 3: good thing to do. It's something that has been I

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Speaker 3: think become more noticeable, and especially this dynamic pricing which

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Speaker 3: is kind of a newish thing in terms of especially

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Speaker 3: constant tickets, Australian open things like that, where it's just

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Speaker 3: become quite absurd. And there's not always a lot that

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Speaker 3: governments can do about overall inflation, but they can be

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Speaker 3: fairly powerful getting rid of some dodgy practices. So I

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Speaker 3: think that's probably why they're doing it, and also just

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Speaker 3: hopefully they're doing it because it's a good thing to do.

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Speaker 1: The opposition says that it's a distraction from some of

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Speaker 1: the larger institutional economic issues impacting particularly young people. Housing

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Speaker 1: is something that I know you've spent a lot of

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Speaker 1: time thinking and writing about. What's your take on that response?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I think you know you can walk

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Speaker 3: into gum at the same time. Just because you might

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Speaker 3: be able to fix housing this week doesn't mean you

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Speaker 3: shouldn't get rid of dynamic pricing and DEBRA charges. I

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Speaker 3: mean you should be doing both. And oppositions will always

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Speaker 3: say that if a government does something, oh, it's just

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Speaker 3: a small distraction from this other big thing that the

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Speaker 3: opposition wants to talk about. Well, you know, sure, but

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Speaker 3: what have they preferred that they didn't do this thing

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Speaker 3: on dynamic pricing. It's a bit of a weak argument

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Speaker 3: in my view. Certainly, you're right the government still has

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Speaker 3: lots to do on housing, and certainly, if you look

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Speaker 3: at the polls, people are not all that happy with

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Speaker 3: how the government's been going on housing. But again, that

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Speaker 3: doesn't discount that, or this doesn't mean that they shouldn't

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Speaker 3: be doing other things that are good. I certainly think

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Speaker 3: this dynamic pricing and the debit card fees is certainly

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Speaker 3: something that is well worth doing.

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Speaker 1: One more question, Greg, because I don't know if we're

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Speaker 1: going to have the chance to chat before the US election,

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Speaker 1: regardless of the result, I'm sorry to bring it up.

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Speaker 1: Is that a bit painful? Regardless of the results it is.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that Australians can expect to see an

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Speaker 1: economic impact at home depending on what happens there?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, it all depends. If Harris wins. We're

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Speaker 3: not going to notice much of a change if Trump wins,

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Speaker 3: and it'll come down to what he does with tariffs.

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Speaker 3: What's going to happen is when Trump gets in, governments

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Speaker 3: all around the world are going to be going and

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Speaker 3: trying to get a sweetheart deal. Now what we have

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Speaker 3: to do to get that? Generally it's been the need

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Speaker 3: of Trump and praise him and say how wonderful a

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Speaker 3: leader he is or something like that. Probably we'll probably

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Speaker 3: get Greg Norman in again to play around a golf

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Speaker 3: with him or something. If if we get exempt from

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Speaker 3: the tariff, the twenty percent tariff, that will be helpful,

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Speaker 3: very helpful. But you know, if he goes full on

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Speaker 3: and Levy's a sixty percent tariff on Chinese goods, twenty

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Speaker 3: percent tariffs on most other nations. That's not going to

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Speaker 3: be good for the global economy. Australia generally gets swept

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Speaker 3: up in such things, especially because China is a major

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Speaker 3: export market of ours, and so if China has owned

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Speaker 3: exports of manufactured goods that require iron ore and cold

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Speaker 3: start to shrink, then that's going to affect us as well.

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Speaker 3: But so that's kind of my big worry. If Harris

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Speaker 3: gets in, Yeah, we're not going to see much. You know,

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Speaker 3: she's much more concerned about the American economy rather than

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Speaker 3: doing these major things that are going to hurt others.

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Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to touch base with you, regardless of

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Speaker 1: the result, to see how those kind of scenarios are

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Speaker 1: playing out. Greg Jericho from the Australians, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for joining.

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Speaker 3: Us now we are Sam.

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Speaker 2: Really good to chat Sam. That was so interesting. Thank

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Speaker 2: you so much for bringing us that interview. I always

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Speaker 2: learned something from our chats with Greg Jericho really breaks

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Speaker 2: it down in a way that makes these tricky stories

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Speaker 2: a little bit easier to digest easy. Thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for listening to today's episode of the Daily Ods.

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Speaker 2: We'll be back with another podcast tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Dunda

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Speaker 1: Bungelung Calcottin woman from Gadigo Country. The Daily Os acknowledges

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