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Speaker 1: My Heart podcasts here, more Gold one on one point

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Speaker 1: seven podcasts.

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Speaker 3: Jersey and Amanda jam Nation Well.

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Speaker 1: Tensions between Iran and Israel remain high after a supposed

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Speaker 1: ceasefire between the two countries appears strained. It seems to

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Speaker 1: be holding, but how tenuous is it? We thought we'd

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Speaker 1: find out what's going on because obviously we've heard this morning.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is sick of what he's telling both sides

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Speaker 1: that they don't know what the f they're doing.

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Speaker 3: For more, we thought we chat.

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Speaker 2: It's not the only one though, I think we're all seeking.

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Speaker 3: But there's a lot writing on this.

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Speaker 1: For Donald Trump, this ceasefire means a lot to him

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Speaker 1: and his public standing, so we thought we'd chat to

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Speaker 1: international affairs expert Dr Keith Suitter.

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Speaker 3: Keith, Hello, Yes, good morning, Hello, doctor Keith. Do you

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Speaker 3: think this ceasefire will hold? What's your reading.

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Speaker 4: Of all this? It's going to be touched and go

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Speaker 4: because the ceasefire was brought in so quickly with so

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Speaker 4: little preparation, so there's always a risk of breakdown. But

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Speaker 4: I think both sides, both Israel and Iran are looking

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Speaker 4: for an off ramp and the Americans certainly are on

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Speaker 4: off ramp is where you get out of the mess

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Speaker 4: you're in, and I think that both Israel and Iran

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Speaker 4: would like to find some way of getting out of

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Speaker 4: this mess. So at the moment, it's been the best

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Speaker 4: bit of good news I think we've had for twelve days.

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Speaker 2: And is it about saving face?

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Speaker 4: Oh, absolutely, because both have got domestic audiences. You know,

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Speaker 4: obviously there are a lot of people in Iran who

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Speaker 4: are angry about the attack by the United States, and

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Speaker 4: you've got a lot of people in Israel who are

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Speaker 4: very angry about Iran. So yes, in both countries you've

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Speaker 4: got domestic audiences. They play out differently. Israel is more

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Speaker 4: of a democracy than Iran, but Iran's rulers know that

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Speaker 4: they've got the ordinary person in the street also would

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Speaker 4: very angry and would be rebellious if they don't do something.

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Speaker 4: Did something by attacking American facilities in Kada, but by

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Speaker 4: warning everybody what they were going to do. The Americans

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Speaker 4: accepted this as a sort of a saving honor of Iran,

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Speaker 4: and then Trump has been able to build upon that.

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Speaker 4: I think Trump has done quite well so far.

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Speaker 1: What does this mean about the changing world order, the

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Speaker 1: fact that Donald Trump was able to get into this

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Speaker 1: skirmish in the first place, in the same way that

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Speaker 1: using the same kind of rules that Russia did in

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Speaker 1: Ukraine without Congress being involved. A lot of people are

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Speaker 1: saying that the world is shifting because of this, and

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Speaker 1: suddenly China can go into Taiwan. The rules that have

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Speaker 1: kept us safe since World War Two are all shifting.

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Speaker 4: Spot on. That's exactly the issue where a lot of

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Speaker 4: international lawyers are talking about. So it's a general feeling

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Speaker 4: that both Israel and the United States have violated international law.

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Speaker 4: And as you say, at the end of World War II,

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Speaker 4: there was an agreement that countries would not invade others

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Speaker 4: and that's now being violated by a number of other countries.

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Speaker 3: And so does that worry you in terms of what

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Speaker 3: you think we'll see.

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Speaker 4: Oh, yes, because it sets up a pattern. Others will

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Speaker 4: now be able to quote the examples of Russia and

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Speaker 4: Israel to justify their own invasions. And you've already mentioned

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Speaker 4: the example of China invading Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: So where does this leave us? Do you think that

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Speaker 1: this will be a I mean, will Donald Trump? Is

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Speaker 1: he triumphant and everything goes back to normal, or the

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Speaker 1: Middle East will always be a boiling pot and that's it.

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Speaker 4: Oh, the Middle East is going to be a boiling

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Speaker 4: point for quite a while. Because Israel has got nuclear weapons.

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Speaker 4: It's not covered by the standard treaty in the way

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Speaker 4: that Iran had agreed to be covered. And you're always

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Speaker 4: going to get countries, either in the Arab world or

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Speaker 4: Iran on who will want to challenge Israel's monopoly over

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Speaker 4: nuclear weapons. So back in nineteen eighty one it was

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Speaker 4: necessary for Israel to bomb the nuclear reactor in Iraq.

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Speaker 4: Twenty years later they did something similar in Serior, and

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Speaker 4: now we've seen it in the case of Iran. This

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Speaker 4: is going to continue until there is a long term

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Speaker 4: peace settlement in the Middle East. And I think that's

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Speaker 4: where did he gult to envisage.

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Speaker 2: And Memai vladimirs Zelenski, you're saying, hey, what about us

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Speaker 2: over here?

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Speaker 4: What about us? Well, that war still continues. Russia is

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Speaker 4: certainly not winning it. They're not losing, but they're certainly

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Speaker 4: not winning it, and that struggle will continue. We're moving

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Speaker 4: into the summer in Europe and this will be the

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Speaker 4: fighting season and this is where the Russians will step

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Speaker 4: up their attacks on Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of are we having World War three without

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Speaker 2: having World War three?

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Speaker 4: No, no, it's not world War three. I've got to

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Speaker 4: keep reassuring people of that because so let's look the

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Speaker 4: case of Iran. For example, Russia and China are not

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Speaker 4: coming in on the side of Iran. If they were

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Speaker 4: to do so, then it would be World War three.

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Speaker 4: But there's not going to be any World War three.

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Speaker 4: My worry is that, as I've already mentioned, this is

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Speaker 4: going to be continued unrest in the Middle East. So

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Speaker 4: there'll be regional conflicts, but no World War three.

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Speaker 2: But then again, doctor, that trouble in the Middle East

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Speaker 2: has been around since five hundred beast, so it's not

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Speaker 2: going anywhere.

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Speaker 4: No, it's not going to go anywhere. It does change

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Speaker 4: from time to time. You know. It's interesting to note,

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Speaker 4: for example, that there are many Persians what we would

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Speaker 4: now call Iranians, who are heroes in Jewish history. So

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Speaker 4: people are not always automatically destined to be enemies. You know,

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Speaker 4: when I think of the Swedes nowadays, I think of

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Speaker 4: abra and pop music, but a thousand years ago they

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Speaker 4: were performing Great Pillage and Murder across Western Europe as Vikings.

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Speaker 3: And musically they were terrible.

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Speaker 2: You're seeing terror vision this year, Keith. Thank you for

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Speaker 2: joining us, and thank you for enlightening us and reassuring

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Speaker 2: us as well.

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Speaker 4: Good thank you, Doctor Keith. Suited there