1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Well, on Friday, we learned that Angus Taylor would take 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: over the Liberal leadership following an early morning spell which 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: saw him topple Susan Lee thirty four to seventeen. Now 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 1: that spell followed the collapse of support for the Coalition 5 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:16,799 Speaker 1: and the rapid rise of One Nation according to recent polling. 6 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: Now leading pollster Kors Samaris, the Director and well of 7 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: Strategy and Analytics at Redbridge, joins me on the line. 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: Good morning to you cause, good morning, lovely to have 9 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: you on the show. Now, I know that Redbridge undertakes 10 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: regular national surveys to get a gauge of the political 11 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: compass of Australians. This recent polling has been pretty woeful 12 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: for the Coalition, has Nash. 13 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 2: You would certainly illustrated a significant trend away from the 14 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 2: Coalition and into the arms of One Nation. The types 15 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: of voters that are leaving the Coalition working class Australians, 16 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 2: in regional Australian in particular, but also in outer suburban 17 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 2: locations as well, and they have a history of voting 18 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 2: for the Liberal Party. You can best describe them as 19 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 2: sort of Howard's Battler's They were voting for John Howe 20 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 2: when they're in their thirties and forties and they're are 21 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 2: now gone and supporting one nation. 22 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: Gous, what are the main concerns that they're raising. You 23 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: know that they're saying that they're not liking or that 24 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: they're unhappy with the Liberal Party the coalition. 25 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: About number one driver is the sense that the two 26 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 2: party systems are not working for them, and number two 27 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: drivers the sense that they've been abandoned economically by the 28 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,559 Speaker 2: conservative cider politics. They're two drivers. They've got issues around 29 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 2: an immigration, a whole range of issues, but the number 30 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 2: one and two are pretty significant in terms of motivating 31 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 2: these people to move away from from the Liberal Party 32 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 2: in the CLP. 33 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: Do you reckon that like the troubles that we're saying, 34 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: are they limited only to the coalition or are we 35 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: sort of seeing a bit of a distrust in some 36 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: of the major political parties. 37 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 2: More generally overall, most Austrains that we survey will tell 38 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 2: us that the country's heading in the wrong direction. Most 39 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 2: Austrains will tell us the two party systems not working 40 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:15,359 Speaker 2: for them. The Labor camp has been able to avoid 41 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 2: losing support to one Nation because largely the types of 42 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,119 Speaker 2: people that are moving to one nation are as I've 43 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 2: touched on conservative by nature those who are voting for labor. 44 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 2: There is a group of labor voters who are really unhappy, 45 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 2: but they will most likely break to another alternative if 46 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 2: it's on the left soil of part of politics which 47 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 2: does not include the Greens. 48 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 1: It's like, I feel like it's an interesting one as well, 49 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: in the sense that, you know, some of the views 50 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 1: I would imagine are quite varied between Aussies that maybe 51 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 1: live more regionally as opposed to those in major cities. 52 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 1: I guess, you know, to be sort of blunt about it. 53 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: You know, if you live in a mining town like 54 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: Mount Isa, are you going to be much more supportive of, 55 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: you know, of somebody that's progressive when it comes to 56 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: mining than what you might be if you're living inner 57 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: city Sydney. 58 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 2: That's right. Where an incredibly diverse country now and our 59 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 2: politics reflect that. And so what may work in big 60 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 2: city Australia doesn't work in regional Australia. And this is 61 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 2: a sort of difficulty that the Liberal Party in particular 62 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:22,800 Speaker 2: finds itself in where it has now largely been pushed 63 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 2: out of all the big cities. It only has around 64 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 2: eight urban seats left out of eighty eight. Most of 65 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:34,679 Speaker 2: the political real estate it still has is regional and 66 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 2: all that it's losing to one nation. So it's in 67 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 2: a pretty sticky mind at the moment. 68 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: It certainly is. And I know it's early days, but 69 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: I'm assuming that you guys will be conducting some polling around, 70 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 1: you know, the new coalition leader and whether that changes 71 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: people's views at all. 72 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, but I wouldn't expect all that much of a 73 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: change atin of the day. You can change the sea 74 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 2: of a big company that makes bad beer. If the 75 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 2: beer is still bad, you don't fix the ingredients and 76 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 2: people don't buy the beer. It's pretty simple, spot on, 77 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 2: spot on. 78 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 1: Hey, what do you make of the fact though, that 79 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 1: in some states like the Northern Territory, of course, the 80 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,839 Speaker 1: CLP won on a huge majority. Even in Queensland you've 81 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: got that conservative government, but then when it comes to 82 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 1: the federal government they seem to really struggle. 83 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, it really depends on the local circumstances. In the 84 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 2: Northern Territory in Queensland do have a history of supporting 85 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 2: conservative state governments and territory governments. That doesn't surprise me 86 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 2: they're less a world as uber urbanized like you know 87 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 2: we see in Melbourne visa the Victoria, or Sydney visa 88 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 2: v in New South Wales. Just again, you know, going 89 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 2: back to that earlier point with such a diverse country 90 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 2: and so different. 91 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 1: Cose, what do you reckon? We've got a We've got 92 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:55,679 Speaker 1: a by election coming up in a couple of weeks 93 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 1: in Nightcliffe as well. Do you do much polling in 94 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: the northern territory. 95 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 2: Is really difficult to poll because of the small population clusters, 96 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 2: and getting really good robust samples out of the territory 97 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 2: is really difficult. We have done some polling in the 98 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 2: past and that usually just gives us a bit of 99 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 2: a sort of overall territory mood setting rather than trying 100 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 2: to poll an individual state seat is near impossible. 101 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,119 Speaker 1: Yeah, do you reckon We're going to see I guess 102 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 1: with that polling nationally, you know, seeing the one nation 103 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 1: gaining support in different locations. Do you think we're going 104 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 1: to see more people putting their hand up to run 105 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: for one nation, hoping that they can sort of ride 106 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: that wave of popularity. 107 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would not be surprised if we see more 108 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 2: and more people join their ranks. I think we are 109 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 2: seeing that anecdotically at the moment. Once people think there 110 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 2: is there is a mood, there is a sort of 111 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 2: alternative for change, and then they jump on it. A 112 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 2: really good example of this is the type There are 113 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 2: three groups of people that are jumping over to one nation. 114 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 2: As we've talked about former conservative voters. There's also another 115 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 2: group which has historically voted for something other than the 116 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 2: major parties, for sort of right wing minor parties or 117 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:15,479 Speaker 2: part of United and those sort of organizations. They too, 118 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 2: are now moving to one nation because they think that 119 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 2: this is not a waste vote anymore, that can actually 120 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 2: implement change. 121 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: Yeah. Right, I find it fascinating. I always think it's 122 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: interesting to get in the minds of people that are voting. 123 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: So I reckon you guys that have a very interesting job, 124 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: cause no doubt about. 125 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 2: That interesting year ahead of us. 126 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly will be lovely to talk to you 127 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 1: this morning. I'm sure we'll catch up again. Thank you.