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Speaker 1: Well, as we've been discussing everybody wondering if and when

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Speaker 1: the monsoon is going to arrive, and I am pleased

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Speaker 1: to say that. Joining me on the line right now

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Speaker 1: from the Bureau of Meteorology it is Jess Lingard. Good morning, Jess,

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Speaker 1: and welcome back.

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Speaker 2: Good morning. Thank you now, Jess.

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Speaker 1: We have all been waiting for this monsoon. What's going on?

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Speaker 1: What's the latest.

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Speaker 2: I wish I had better news for you, but I

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Speaker 2: did not expect to be here on the twenty eighth

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Speaker 2: of January and still no official monsoon. We've had some

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Speaker 2: monsoon like births, but they haven't ticked all the boxes

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Speaker 2: that we need to officially declare the monsoon arrival. Things

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Speaker 2: are looking maybe a touch better as we get through

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Speaker 2: the next week or two, as we start to see well,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if any of your listeners

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Speaker 2: have had to look at the seven day tropical cyclone

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Speaker 2: forecast map, but by the time we get to Friday morning,

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Speaker 2: there are not one, not but five tropical lows that

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Speaker 2: the Bureau is going to be monitoring across the Australian region.

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Speaker 2: Two off the coast of Wa, one in the Gulf

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Speaker 2: of Carpenteria and two off the Queensland coast. Now, all

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Speaker 2: of this activity does sort of paint a picture of

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Speaker 2: a little bit of low pressure across northern parts of

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Speaker 2: the country and hopefully that is enough to tempt down

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Speaker 2: the monsoon trough. So look, it's still questionable, but I

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Speaker 2: think we can officially say that this is the latest

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Speaker 2: monsoon onset.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's the latest since records began, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: I think so. Yeah. I think the latest we had

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Speaker 2: was I think about the twenty fifth of January, so

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Speaker 2: we're a few days past that now and still maybe

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Speaker 2: a few more days to go at this stage. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: I don't have a date in mind, so jes do

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Speaker 2: we know if there.

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Speaker 1: Has ever been a situation where the monsoon just hasn't arrived.

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Speaker 2: Not in Australia as far as I'm aware. There have

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Speaker 2: been occasion where the monsoon has failed through India, but

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Speaker 2: you know, never has it failed through Australia. So this

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Speaker 2: is sort of fairly uncharted territory for us. So we're

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Speaker 2: still hopeful, though you know, we're not. We're not out

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Speaker 2: of the season completely just yet, and we've still got

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Speaker 2: plenty of rainfall around I think the thing that's killing

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Speaker 2: us to the moment is the humidity.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that's exactly right. And you know, like all usually

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Speaker 1: through that Christmas and New Year kind of period we

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Speaker 1: at least get like a you know, a bit more

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Speaker 1: cooler weather with the with the rain sort of sticking

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Speaker 1: around for an extended period.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it just hasn't happened.

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Speaker 1: No, it hasn't happened. So I understand that the late

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Speaker 1: arrival of the monsoon's due to the Madden Julian Oscillation.

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Speaker 1: Can you explain that for our listeners?

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Speaker 2: Yes, So, the Madden Julian Oscillation, or the MJO, is

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Speaker 2: a pulse of shower and thunderstorm activity that circles the globe.

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Speaker 2: There are a couple of them that exists, so that

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Speaker 2: MJO is one of them. Another one is the equatorial

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Speaker 2: Rosby wave, which goes the other way around the globe.

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Speaker 2: And both of those features are due into the Australian

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Speaker 2: region this week, and so when we have them in

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Speaker 2: our area, we tend to see an uptick in tropical

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Speaker 2: activity and we can see sort of patterns of that

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Speaker 2: as they've been around, you know, recently. I think they

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Speaker 2: can sort of come around every sort of forty to

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Speaker 2: sixty days or something like that. I'm not too sure

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Speaker 2: on the exact definition, but they come around fairly periodically,

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Speaker 2: so they're both in our region at the moment, and

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Speaker 2: usually when we see them in our region, they can

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Speaker 2: help to bring down the monsoon trough. So it's you know,

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Speaker 2: we can see the monsoon trough, we can see the

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Speaker 2: monsoon surge, but it's still sitting up through the maritime continents.

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Speaker 2: So up through Indonesia we can see that monsoon burst.

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Speaker 2: We just need those winds to drop a little bit

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Speaker 2: further south. We need to see that return flow back

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Speaker 2: up into the northern TERRACEA and that will be the

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Speaker 2: indicators that we need. So every day we send up

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Speaker 2: balloons at Darwin Airport. They measure the wind speed and

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Speaker 2: the temperature throughout the depth of the atmosphere. So there

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Speaker 2: are different you know, boxes that we do need to

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Speaker 2: tick to officially say that the monsoon has been But

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Speaker 2: as I mentioned, you know, we did have that little

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Speaker 2: monsoony birth of monsoon like conditions, but it just didn't

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Speaker 2: hang around quite long enough for us to be able

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Speaker 2: to call it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and so in terms of I mean, we have

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Speaker 1: still had that bit of rainfall. So are we onlight

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Speaker 1: record any are we reaching any records in terms of,

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Speaker 1: you know, the level of rainfall not being as high

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Speaker 1: is what it's been in previous years.

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Speaker 2: Or a sort of I don't think we're gunning for

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Speaker 2: wet this year on record by any stretch of the imagination.

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Speaker 2: But we're not also the driest, so you know, there's

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Speaker 2: positive things in there. Rain has come, we have seen

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Speaker 2: showers and thunderstorms. What we're missing is that regularity and

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Speaker 2: that you know, constancy of shower activity that is going

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Speaker 2: to help to bring down the temperature, help to just

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Speaker 2: you know, stave off a bit of that humidity. Is

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Speaker 2: I think of a better word than saying kill again, pology.

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Speaker 1: And so jess. Then when it comes to these five

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Speaker 1: tropical lows, we're an isle like, what do we I mean,

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Speaker 1: I guess it's early days, but what are we thinking

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Speaker 1: is going to happen?

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Speaker 2: There so so many questions there because they can't all

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Speaker 2: five of them become tropical cyclones. There's just not enough

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Speaker 2: energy in the atmosphere to support all five of them.

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Speaker 2: What we're thinking is at this stage, the one in

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Speaker 2: the Gulf is probably of the most concerned to the

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Speaker 2: Northern territory because it's the one closest at this stage

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Speaker 2: that's going to be sort of an eastern end t

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Speaker 2: thing rather than a western top end impact just because

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Speaker 2: of its location. But also it's quite close to the

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Speaker 2: next system, which is looking like forming up off the

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Speaker 2: sort of Cans Townsville coastline. Conditions are very favorable over there,

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Speaker 2: so at this stage, you know, and we're a long

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Speaker 2: way out, so you know, huge buckets of salt here.

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Speaker 2: That one looks like the more favorable system to form up,

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Speaker 2: and if that happens, then it's unlikely that we would

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Speaker 2: see too much strengthening on that system in the Gulf.

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Speaker 2: But you know, tropical cyclone forecasting is its own special bath,

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Speaker 2: so we're a long way away. None of these systems

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Speaker 2: have even formed yet, So I think next time we

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Speaker 2: chat on Friday, we'll probably have a little bit more

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Speaker 2: information about where these systems are going. But you can

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Speaker 2: have a look on the bureau's website in that yellow

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Speaker 2: bar at the top, go to the tropical cyclone section,

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Speaker 2: navigate your way through to this seven day forecast map,

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Speaker 2: and that will give you the five blobs that we're

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Speaker 2: looking for. The blob size is not an indication of strength.

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Speaker 2: It's just a representation of where the models are thinking

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Speaker 2: this system will be. So there'll be some model in

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Speaker 2: the western parts of that blob and some models in

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Speaker 2: the eastern parts. It's it's not representative of strength by

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Speaker 2: any means. So yeah, have a look at those, and

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Speaker 2: then keep an eye on those as we go through

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Speaker 2: this week, because they do get updated very regularly, and

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Speaker 2: obviously as new model runs occur, we'll be able to

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Speaker 2: update with more certainty. You know what we think is

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Speaker 2: going to happen.

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Speaker 1: And Jess, can you just talk us through our forecast

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Speaker 1: for rare Darwin, the Grinder down, Rageing and Catherine for

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Speaker 1: the week and for the next couple of days.

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Speaker 2: I'd almost forgotten we have done that. Yeah, that's the

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Speaker 2: most important bit. So thirty three degrees the top today

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Speaker 2: in Darwin up to thirty five degrees if you are

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Speaker 2: in the rural areas today, Berry Springs, Humpty Doo and

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Speaker 2: Nunama all heading for thirty five degrees. We do have

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Speaker 2: a sixty percent chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon

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Speaker 2: and this evening, so that's pretty good. It does get

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Speaker 2: better from tomorrow though, up to eighty percent which will

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Speaker 2: be nice if you're in Catherine today, and eighty percent

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Speaker 2: chance of a shower of thunderstorm for you guys, a

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Speaker 2: top of thirty five degrees, but there is maybe some

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Speaker 2: slightly warmer temperatures heading Catherine's way for the rest of

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Speaker 2: the week.

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Speaker 1: Well. Jesslingard from the Bureau of Meteorology, lovely to catch

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Speaker 1: up with you. Thanks so much for your time.

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Speaker 2: You're so welcome, speak to you on Friday.

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Speaker 1: Thank you