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Speaker 1: My name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arunda

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Speaker 1: Bungelung Calcuttin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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Speaker 1: Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres

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Speaker 1: Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.

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Speaker 2: Good morning and welcome to the Daily os. It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the ninth of January. I'm Sarah.

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Speaker 3: I'm Sam.

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Speaker 2: Today we want to answer this question, what can renters

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Speaker 2: expect the market to look like across Australia this year?

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Speaker 2: As we all know, rental prices increased significantly. It was

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Speaker 2: very painful last year. In fact, it's been increasing at

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Speaker 2: an above average rate for a couple of years now,

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Speaker 2: and we want to know will twenty twenty four finally

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Speaker 2: be the year that it slows down. To answer this question,

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Speaker 2: we spoke It's Tim Lawless. He's the research director for

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Speaker 2: property data company Hall Logic. But before we play you

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Speaker 2: that interview, Sam, what's making.

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Speaker 3: Headlines National laws banning the public Nazi salute and display

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Speaker 3: of Nazi symbols? Are now in effect. It comes after

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Speaker 3: Parliament pass legislation last month. From yesterday, offenders will face

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Speaker 3: up to twelve months behind bars.

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Speaker 2: New South Wales Police has dismantled a crime syndicate that's

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Speaker 2: accused of attempting to export one point two million dollars

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Speaker 2: worth of native reptiles to Hong Kong. Police said hundreds

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Speaker 2: of lizards were discovered after they conducted raids on a

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Speaker 2: group allegedly catching live reptiles to self profit in Hong Kong.

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Speaker 2: Four people have been arrested.

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Speaker 3: Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheik Hasina has won a fourth consecutive

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Speaker 3: term in office. Hassena's party and their allies secured more

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Speaker 3: than two thirds of parliamentary seats during the election, which

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Speaker 3: was held over the weekend. The leading opposition party in

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Speaker 3: Bangladesh claims the poll wasn't truly democratic after thousand of

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Speaker 3: Forsenia's opponents were jailed.

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Speaker 2: And The Good News two Uzzies have taken home Golden

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Speaker 2: globes After the award ceremony in La on Monday, Elizabeth

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Speaker 2: de Bickie won a Best Supporting Female Actor gong for

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Speaker 2: her portrayal of Princess Diana in the Crown, while Sarah

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Speaker 2: Snook took out Best Actress in a Drama TV Series

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Speaker 2: for her part in Succession. Margot Robbie missed out for

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Speaker 2: her performance in Barbie, but the movie did win in

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Speaker 2: a new category for box office Achievement. During her acceptance speech,

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Speaker 2: Robbie called it an award for movie fans. Okay, so Sam,

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Speaker 2: I don't think you need me to tell you, and

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Speaker 2: indeed probably none of our listeners that last year was

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Speaker 2: extremely dire for renters in Australia with a rate of

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Speaker 2: price growth. Last week, property data company call Logic revealed

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Speaker 2: Australia's National Home Value Index rose eight point one percent

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three. Now we're going to explain exactly

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Speaker 2: what that means in today's interview, but essentially that stat

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Speaker 2: is focused on how the price of homes increased last year.

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Speaker 2: But we want to understand more about the rental market, specifically,

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Speaker 2: will it finally slow down or do we have more

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Speaker 2: pain installers are going to continue to increase at this

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Speaker 2: rapid pace. TBA journalist Chloe Christie spoke to Tim Lawless,

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Speaker 2: who's the research director for call Logic, to understand this question.

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Speaker 2: Here's that interview.

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Speaker 4: Hi, Tim, thanks for coming on the podcast today.

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Speaker 5: Get it Chloe, thanks for inviting me on.

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Speaker 4: So Call Logic has just released its national Home Value

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Speaker 4: Index which rose by eight point one percent. Can you

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Speaker 4: explain in very simple terms what that actually means.

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Speaker 5: Well, it means housing values rose a little bit more

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Speaker 5: than eight percent, or in dollar terms, we've seen arise

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Speaker 5: over the year roughly about fifty seven thousand dollars on

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Speaker 5: the national medium. Of course, low those headline results for

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Speaker 5: the national numbers, there's a huge amount of diversity. Like

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Speaker 5: at one end of the spectrum, you've got a market

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Speaker 5: like perth or values up a little bit more than

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Speaker 5: fifteen percent over the year. At the other end of

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Speaker 5: the spectrum, you've got markets like Hobart down nearly one percent.

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Speaker 5: Darwin was virtually flat, So it was Canberra and regional

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Speaker 5: markets generally out of performing the capital city counterparts, although

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Speaker 5: that trend started to shift a little through the final

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Speaker 5: quarter of the year. So yeah, I think it really

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Speaker 5: highlights the diversity but also the resilience in the market.

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Speaker 4: So that eight point one percent annual rise, I want

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Speaker 4: to know how that impacts renters specifically, Well.

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Speaker 5: The rise and values doesn't necessarily impact on rental markets.

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Speaker 5: The two trends are quite separate, if you will, so

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Speaker 5: rental markets tend to be much more driven by well

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Speaker 5: supply of rentals, which we know vacancy rates throughout twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty three and even the prior years were generally ran

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Speaker 5: record lows. We're still seeing vacancy rates around the one

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Speaker 5: percent market, if not lower, in most of the major capitals,

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Speaker 5: at least. At the same time, demand is still very strong,

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Speaker 5: although it looks like the demand side of things might

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Speaker 5: just be easing off a little, as we see net

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Speaker 5: overseas migration has peaked, starting to slow down a little bit,

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Speaker 5: but still substantially higher than average. But also we're seeing

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Speaker 5: some anecdotal evidence that rental households are just starting to

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Speaker 5: restructure larger rental tendencies for example, more group households, more

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Speaker 5: generational multi generational households, and renters probably looking for more

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Speaker 5: affordable alternatives which may mean units rather than houses or

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Speaker 5: looking around the art of fringes. But I think it's

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Speaker 5: fair to say a rental markets still extraordinarily tight, and

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Speaker 5: a lot of renters are probably becoming more incentivized to

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Speaker 5: get out of renting and become a first home buyer,

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Speaker 5: and that's been one of the trends last year was

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Speaker 5: that first home buyers were surprisingly over represented in the market.

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Speaker 5: Considering where interest rates are and cost of living pressures.

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Speaker 5: We actually saw first home by activity lifting to above

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Speaker 5: average levels, which I think is probably a symptom of

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Speaker 5: really high rental conditions.

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Speaker 4: So is that that people just want to get out

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Speaker 4: of the rental market entirely and just enter that those

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Speaker 4: home buyers world.

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Speaker 5: I think that's a big part of it. Absolutely, When

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Speaker 5: you have vacancy rates that are so low and rents

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Speaker 5: that have been rising quite rapidly, I think a lot

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Speaker 5: of renters are over that, and if they have the

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Speaker 5: financial ability to get into a purchasing situation, I think

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Speaker 5: more and more would be doing so. But that's probably

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Speaker 5: the biggest challenge about getting out of rent is saving

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Speaker 5: a deposit is really hard when rents are so high

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Speaker 5: and cost of living pressures are so high as well,

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Speaker 5: And of course lenders are generally quite reluctant to lend

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Speaker 5: on high loan evaluation ratios or high to tw income

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Speaker 5: ratios as well. There are quite a few leg ups

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Speaker 5: from the federal and state governments and no doubt there's

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Speaker 5: been some I guess support from the bank of Mom

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Speaker 5: and Dad where people have that benefit.

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Speaker 4: Also, do we know by how much renting prices have

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Speaker 4: increased on average across Australia into twenty three.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so rents were up over the year by a

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Speaker 5: little bit more than eight percent, so a step down

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Speaker 5: from last year. So if you look at annual rental growth,

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Speaker 5: rents rub eight point three percent in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 5: they're up nine point five percent in twenty twenty one

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Speaker 5: they're up nine point six percent. So we're definitely seeing

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Speaker 5: a trend towards less rental growth that if you look

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Speaker 5: at say the average pre COVID annual rental growth was

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Speaker 5: generally around sort of one and a half to two

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Speaker 5: and a half percent, roughly in line with income growth

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Speaker 5: or inflation at the time. So to see rents still

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Speaker 5: rising at nearly nine percent per annum at the moment

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Speaker 5: just highlights just how strong rental markets are or how

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Speaker 5: tight rental markets are. We are expecting that rate of

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Speaker 5: rental growth will probably slow even further through twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 5: partly because we're expecting a better rebalancing or more of

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Speaker 5: a rebalancing between supply and demand. But also renters are

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Speaker 5: just reaching an affordability ceiling. On ometrics on rental affordability,

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Speaker 5: the typical rental household is probably dedicating about thirty one

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Speaker 5: percent of their gross income just towards paying the rent

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Speaker 5: and it's really rare to see the ratio getting higher

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Speaker 5: than that. So to my point earlier on, it just

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Speaker 5: means that renters are probably looking at any way that

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Speaker 5: they can spread their rental costs across a larger pool

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Speaker 5: of renters or maybe look to more affordable rental options.

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Speaker 5: In the worst case scenario here is worsening homelessness, rough living, CouchSurfing,

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Speaker 5: all those really negative social outcomes that come out of

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Speaker 5: rental affordability pressures as bad as what they are.

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Speaker 4: So, I know you mentioned the diversity of changes in

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Speaker 4: the market across Australia. Do we know if certain areas

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Speaker 4: of Australia will experience lower growth than other areas well?

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, and we've already seen that through this calendar. You're

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Speaker 5: just gone. Do you got markets like Hobart Camera Darwin

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Speaker 5: where values have generally been flat to even falling over

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Speaker 5: the year, And these are also cities that have generally

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Speaker 5: had a much healthier balance of supply. Listing numbers, for example,

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Speaker 5: in Hobart finished the year, or at least in November,

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Speaker 5: about fifty percent higher than their five year average. There's

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Speaker 5: a lot more stock to choose from. Hobart's another really

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Speaker 5: good example of a market where the demand side factors

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Speaker 5: haven't been anywhere near as strong, even though there's a

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Speaker 5: higher than normal level of overseas migration that tends to

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Speaker 5: flow into rental demand rather than purchasing demand. Interstate migration

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Speaker 5: has been negative for some time. Across Tasing now act

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Speaker 5: very similar so as DAW and it doesn't have the

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Speaker 5: same demand side pressures or the imbalance between supply and demand.

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Speaker 5: I think in twenty twenty four the markets that are

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Speaker 5: really going to stand out for price growth will be

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Speaker 5: markets like Perth. I mean, Perth really stands out to

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Speaker 5: me because it has a much healthier level of affordability

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Speaker 5: for starters. That's just the legacy of the very soft

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Speaker 5: conditions the Perth went through post mining boom. Even though

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Speaker 5: values have been leading the nation for growth for the

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Speaker 5: last year or so, it's still a very affordable relative

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Speaker 5: to incomes. Brisbane or Southeast Queensland or broadly still looks

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Speaker 5: relatively healthy to me as well, because it has a

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Speaker 5: very strong rate of interstate migration, it's much more affordable

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Speaker 5: than Sydney, and it seems to have a bit of,

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Speaker 5: you know, a lifestyle element to it that's quite appealing

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Speaker 5: in the market at the moment. And then Melbourne. You know,

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Speaker 5: even though Melbourne is a very weak market at the moment,

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Speaker 5: we saw values falling over the last couple of months

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Speaker 5: of the year, it's also building up a real affordability

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Speaker 5: advantage against Sydney. In fact, on a median dwelling value basis,

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Speaker 5: we've just seen Brisbane become more expensive than buying into

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Speaker 5: Melbourne with a medium dwelling value of Brisbane about seven

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Speaker 5: hundred and eighty seven thousand, Melbourne at seven hundred and

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Speaker 5: eighty thousand. So Melbourne, even though it has been quite

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Speaker 5: a weak market, is probably starting to build up a

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Speaker 5: bit of an affordability advantage compared to some other cities.

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Speaker 4: So I think you've kind of just answered my question.

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Speaker 4: And it's a bit scary for me, but where will

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Speaker 4: be the most expensive place to rent in Australia in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty four If you could a couple of cities.

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Speaker 5: It's definitely changing. If you look at the last couple

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Speaker 5: of years, when you look at renting versus local incomes,

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Speaker 5: Hobart and Canberra have been the two most expensive rental markets,

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Speaker 5: and Adelaide is really caught up as well, partly because

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Speaker 5: rents are quite high, but also Hobart and Adelaide in particular,

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Speaker 5: household incomes tend to be a little bit lower. That's

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Speaker 5: changing now. And if you look at the strongest rental

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Speaker 5: growth we're seeing in the market by far, it's in Perth.

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Speaker 5: I'm not saying that means it's going to be the

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Speaker 5: most unaffordable and most expensive rental market because it is

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Speaker 5: coming from a relatively affordable base, but definitely there's no

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Speaker 5: signs of Perth rental growth slowing down like it is

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Speaker 5: in other markets, and the vacancy rate in Perth is

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Speaker 5: still sub one percent. But I think the most expensive

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Speaker 5: rental market will probably revert to Sydney. Sydney rents are

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Speaker 5: still rising, like house rents are rising a bit more

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Speaker 5: than eight percent peradum, unit rents a bit more than

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Speaker 5: eleven percent per adum. That'll probably slow down this year.

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Speaker 5: Still remain sort of probably a little bit less than

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Speaker 5: double digits for you un at rents, maybe five or

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Speaker 5: six percent for houses. That's still a lot of rental growth.

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Speaker 5: So I think Sydney is really going to be standing

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Speaker 5: out for both unaffordability for renters as well as home buyers,

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Speaker 5: which of course is going to be a real challenge

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Speaker 5: for that market.

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Speaker 4: That is exactly what I was fearing, Tim.

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Speaker 5: Grim If you're a renter in Sydney, for sure.

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Speaker 4: That'd be me. But thank you so much, Tim for

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Speaker 4: talking to me about that. You've really cleared it up

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Speaker 4: for me and this was super helpful, So thank you.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely pleasure Choe, thanks for including me on the podcast.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for joining us on today's edition of The Daily OS.

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Speaker 3: If you enjoyed this episode, we'd love you to leave

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Speaker 3: a comment or give us a lead of something you

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Speaker 3: want us to talk about in an upcoming episode and

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Speaker 3: we'll do some digging for you and get explaining. We'll

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Speaker 3: be back again in your ears tomorrow morning. Until then,

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Speaker 3: have a great day.