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Speaker 1: For comprehensive political coverage impacting Territorians. The only voice you

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Speaker 1: need is Katie wilf on three sixty remaining one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent and Mix one oh four point nine.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's been a lot of discussion about whether the

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Speaker 2: territory's population had grown towards the end of last year

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Speaker 2: with COVID refugees. I think we've been calling them, or

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Speaker 2: the Chief Minister had called them and joining us on

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Speaker 2: the line right now to talk a little bit more

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Speaker 2: about the population. It's CDU Charles Dalwin University, demographer from

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Speaker 2: the Northern Institute College of Indigenous Futures, Arts and Society,

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Speaker 2: Associate Professor Andrew Taylor. Good morning to you, Andrew.

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Speaker 3: Good morning Katie. Great to be with you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good to chat with you.

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Speaker 2: You and I have discussed this the population on numerous

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Speaker 2: occasions and whether indeed there was much growth towards the

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Speaker 2: end of last year. I understand the Bureau of Statistics, well,

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Speaker 2: they released their most recent data and the population had

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Speaker 2: actually only grown by about eight people. I think.

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Speaker 3: Eight people for Darwin. So but there was actually a

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Speaker 3: bit of a turnaround for Dalen from a negative into

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Speaker 3: state migration flow to that positive of just eight people.

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Speaker 3: So in that respect it was a positive thing, but

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Speaker 3: that was really driven by better retention of people in

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Speaker 3: the territory. And we've released research today that shows that

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Speaker 3: indeed people's sentiments about staying in the territory, so people

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Speaker 3: who already live in the territory have become much more positive.

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Speaker 3: So those that might have looked at leaving in the

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Speaker 3: next two years as a result of the pandemic and

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Speaker 3: various border restrictions and so on, are now looking at staying.

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Speaker 3: So this is very important for the territory. So it's

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Speaker 3: really about retention rather than our ability at the moment

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Speaker 3: to attract more people to the territory. And that's what

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Speaker 3: the ABS data also showed.

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Speaker 2: With the data that you've released today, what else has

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Speaker 2: it found.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we found that this we call it the

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Speaker 3: two year attention rate, and it's improved across all age

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Speaker 3: groups in the territory, but most importantly it's improved for

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Speaker 3: younger people, so those in their sort of early career

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Speaker 3: stages age around eighteen to thirty, and they are very

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Speaker 3: important because they are our biggest group in terms of

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Speaker 3: flows across borders, so they're the biggest group that we

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Speaker 3: gain from interstate and they're the biggest group in terms

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Speaker 3: of losses. So this could help really generate some improvements

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Speaker 3: in our population outcomes, because interstate migration, as we've discussed, Katie,

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Speaker 3: is what's been sort of dragging us back in terms

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Speaker 3: of our population growth.

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Speaker 2: And so through the work that you've done most recently

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Speaker 2: and the data that's been released today, why has the

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Speaker 2: sentiment changed And from what you can gather, why are

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Speaker 2: people sort of staying in the and a bit more

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Speaker 2: happy to stay.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a million dollar question. What's happening across the

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Speaker 3: globe seemingly is this sort of notion of regionalism and

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Speaker 3: entrenchment in the community you're living in, So people are

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Speaker 3: sort of looking inwards. Of course, now there are a

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Speaker 3: million Australians who are not overseas or there's still many

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Speaker 3: left to come back. But at any point in time,

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Speaker 3: we have about a million Australian residents overseas. They're all

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Speaker 3: still home now some of those will be in the

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Speaker 3: territory who otherwise might have been overseas. But yes, there

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Speaker 3: is the notion of this general feeling of wanting to

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Speaker 3: be bedded down in the community where you live sort

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Speaker 3: of homely nurse. You know, as we've heard, building construction

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Speaker 3: is going well in the territory and unless people are

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Speaker 3: traveling overseas, so we're just seeing this retention phenomenon occur

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Speaker 3: that's a result of the pandemic that we haven't necessarily

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Speaker 3: seen before in our population figures.

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Speaker 2: So maybe the you know, the assumption that we had

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Speaker 2: COVID refugees isn't so wrong.

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Speaker 3: We haven't well know, when we think of COVID refugees,

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Speaker 3: we think of people coming specifically to escape, you know,

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Speaker 3: impacts from the pandemic down south, Whereas what the ABS

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Speaker 3: data and our research is showing is that it's people

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Speaker 3: already in the territory who are not leaving. So we

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Speaker 3: haven't been able We've scoured many data sets, and we

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Speaker 3: haven't been able to yet fign evidence of this sort

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Speaker 3: of phenomenon of people coming to the territory to escape

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Speaker 3: restrictions and border closures and indeed the threats they feel

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Speaker 3: from the pandemic itself on their jobs or their health.

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Speaker 3: We haven't yet seen any sort of bounce back in

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Speaker 3: the numbers coming to the territory. But yet we've seen

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Speaker 3: for the first time this bounce in retention.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I guess it's always an interesting like it's

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Speaker 2: a really interesting thing. And there had sort of been

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Speaker 2: that discussion towards the end of last year wondering if

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Speaker 2: we would get more people here because of COVID. But

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Speaker 2: from what you're saying, there's not the data at this

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Speaker 2: point to sort of support them moving here. But we

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Speaker 2: are retaining people.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there isn't at the moment, but with people staying

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Speaker 3: in the territory. Of course, as we've mentioned, restaurants and

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Speaker 3: we've heard in the news at restaurants are kind of

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Speaker 3: having a good business period. There's building and construction happening,

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Speaker 3: especially around private dwellings and houses for families. So maybe

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Speaker 3: this will have a multiplier effect into the future and

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Speaker 3: through their jobs creation through those sort of sectors. All

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Speaker 3: being well with the vaccine roll out and the pandemic itself,

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Speaker 3: we might see a role on towards improved numbers of

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Speaker 3: people coming to the territory, which might then help us

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Speaker 3: out of this kind of long population, slow growth period

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Speaker 3: that we've had.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and do anything else interesting from the data that

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Speaker 2: you have collected, lots.

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Speaker 3: And lots bought online, and maybe we can discuss it

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Speaker 3: further at some point, Katie, But basically, we found the

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Speaker 3: highest increase in the rates of people staying out for

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Speaker 3: those young people and for people who've been here for

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Speaker 3: less than a year. Also for people who are born

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Speaker 3: overseas and are purchasing a home. So those two things

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Speaker 3: kind of help imbed you in the territory and make

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Speaker 3: you less like putty to leave as a result of

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Speaker 3: the pandemic.

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Speaker 2: And so with those people that have been here less

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Speaker 2: than a year that are staying, do we have any

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Speaker 2: ideas sort of what's keeping them here at this point?

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Speaker 2: Is it jobs, an opportunity or what is this?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, look, with the younger people, those early career workers,

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Speaker 3: if you like, mainly not showing the highest increase in retention.

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Speaker 3: We would have to assume that they're sort of feeling

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Speaker 3: like they've got a job in the territory. They don't

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Speaker 3: want to risk leaving now because they may not have

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Speaker 3: a job down south to go to, or the pandemic

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Speaker 3: might cause some further issues around lockdowns and so on.

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Speaker 3: And I think it's about decreasing the risk of those

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Speaker 3: things for them at this point in time. That is

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Speaker 3: has changed their sentiment towards either being uncertain about whether

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Speaker 3: they'll stay or being certain they're leaving. To turn that

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Speaker 3: around towards no, I'm actually going to still be in

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Speaker 3: the territory in two years because I've got a job

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Speaker 3: and I feel entrenched here and don't want to take

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Speaker 3: the risk of leaving.

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Speaker 2: And with those people, are there certain areas from within

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Speaker 2: Australia that they're moving from? I mean, are they capital

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Speaker 2: cities like Sydney and Brisbane or are they other parts

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Speaker 2: of regional Australia that they're moving from?

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Speaker 1: Or do we not really know?

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Speaker 3: We do know. We get that information from the census,

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Speaker 3: and there is another sensus next this year. Actually it's

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Speaker 3: seven to anyone already. We obviously get larger numbers absolute

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Speaker 3: numbers coming from interstate from the big capital cities, but

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Speaker 3: when you look at it at a per capita basis,

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Speaker 3: we do generate, if you like, more per capita migrants

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Speaker 3: from places like North Queensland, Northern WA and rural South

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Speaker 3: Australia and rural New South Wales. So the thought there

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Speaker 3: is that once you've lived rural or remote, you're more

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Speaker 3: likely to be amenable to coming to a place like

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Speaker 3: the Northern territory and indeed possibly more likely to be

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Speaker 3: staying along a term.

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Speaker 2: I had wondered that, you know, I sort of I

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Speaker 2: figured that, you know, maybe the expectations as well of

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Speaker 2: some of those people moving from other regional or rural

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Speaker 2: parts of Australia. Their expectations sort of were a little

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Speaker 2: bit more moderate or normal, I suppose, than what they

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Speaker 2: may be if you move from a capital city like Melbourne.

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Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I guess it might be less of a

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Speaker 3: shock because if you've lived in Cansa or somewhere around

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Speaker 3: North Queensland, you're a used to tropical weather, you're used

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Speaker 3: to cyclones. They might not scare you as much, and

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Speaker 3: you've kind of lived in tropical housing and lived the

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Speaker 3: tropical life style. If you come from Mount iSER, for example,

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Speaker 3: and move to our springs, you've lived the desert lifestyle.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's important. And that's also reflected in

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Speaker 3: our overseas migrant figures before the pandemic in so far

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Speaker 3: as the fastest growing group and the largest group of

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Speaker 3: overseas born in our populations now those from the Philippines,

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Speaker 3: where the climate is kind of similar.

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Speaker 2: And Andrew Will Will this information be utilized by the

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Speaker 2: Northern Territory government at any point, you know, when it

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Speaker 2: comes to things like them trying to get skilled workers

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Speaker 2: to move to the territory.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's certainly we've pointed out a number of policy

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Speaker 3: areas where this research could be applied in processes like

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Speaker 3: the Economic Recovery that's the TOTO Economic Discovery Commission, and

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Speaker 3: in sort of sub areas within that, like attracting and

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Speaker 3: retaining skilled migrants. So, for example, if we if we

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Speaker 3: think we do now have as the research shows, a

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Speaker 3: kind of captive early career audience, let's look at ways

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Speaker 3: to encourage them to stay right out to five years.

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Speaker 3: When we know from our previous research in twenty nineteen

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Speaker 3: that the likelihood of them leading after five years drops again.

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Speaker 3: So there's a drop off in two years of residency

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Speaker 3: and then there's a bigger drop off in five years.

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Speaker 3: So let's think about how we can encourage people to

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Speaker 3: stay to that five years, especially those younger people. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: and get them to start families and hopefully have an

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Speaker 3: intergenerational effect on the population into the future.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely. Well, it's always good to catch up with you, Andrew.

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Speaker 2: I really appreciate your time this morning.

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Speaker 3: My pleasure Katy, thank you, thank you,