1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 1: That the Bureau of Meteorology has indeed issued their latest 2 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:08,960 Speaker 1: advice when it comes to tropical cyclone Fena, and I'm 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 1: pleased to say that joining me on the line again 4 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 1: from the Bureau of Meteorology. We discussed this cyclone a 5 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:19,799 Speaker 1: little earlier with her today, Senior Meteorologist Miriam Bradby Bradbury, 6 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Good morning to. 7 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 2: You, Miriam. Good morning. How are you going? 8 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,959 Speaker 1: Yeah, really good, Thank you again for your time, Miriam. 9 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: What is the latest with the tracking map? 10 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, so the latest with the track map. Look, the 11 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 2: main story is that the area is concerned for our 12 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:41,239 Speaker 2: tropical cyclone watching. Tropical cyclone warning haven't changed, so they 13 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 2: remain the same. What has changed is, I guess the 14 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 2: track of the cyclone has sped up slightly, so it's 15 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 2: still a Category two system at this point in time, 16 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 2: still located around four hundred k to the northeast of Darwin, 17 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 2: so still well offshore. But where previously we were looking 18 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 2: at actually this system reaching that Cobourg Peninsula on Saturday morning, 19 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 2: it's now possible that we could see it reaching those 20 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:12,320 Speaker 2: areas as early as Friday night. So that means all 21 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 2: of our time frames has increased a little bit, and 22 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:18,479 Speaker 2: this is typical of cyclones, particularly when they're still well 23 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 2: out over the water, they may speed up slow down slightly, 24 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 2: and that changes all of our time frames for when 25 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 2: the cyclone may reach certain areas. So at this point 26 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 2: in time, it is expected to move south through today, 27 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:34,479 Speaker 2: then gradually start trending south westwards through the later part 28 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 2: of today into tomorrow. It'll continue southwest towards that far 29 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 2: northwestern most part of the Northern Territory's top end during 30 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 2: tomorrow and as I said, most likely crossing that Coburg 31 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 2: Marine Park area in that northwest coastal area tomorrow night, 32 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 2: so Friday night, it'll then progress across the Van Demon Gulf, 33 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 2: now likely to pass between the top End coast and 34 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 2: the Tea Islands through Saturday evening, so it's coming very 35 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,559 Speaker 2: very close to Darwin, but is still expected to cross 36 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 2: through to the north. So broadly speaking, our impacts haven't 37 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 2: changed too much. Our warning area still extends from Cape 38 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,360 Speaker 2: Don up to Madda and Greta and includes the Kobak Peninsula, 39 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 2: Minjelang and war are We. Our tropical cyclone watch area 40 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 2: includes the Tewei Islands as far south as Darwin. And 41 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 2: easter gun Billanya, But I guess it's really the timing 42 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 2: of when we might start seeing the worst of the 43 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 2: impact that has increased by around maybe six to twelve 44 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 2: hours or so. 45 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 1: Okay, so just well just tell us exactly when we 46 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: are sort of expecting to experience that in Darwin at 47 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: this point in time. 48 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, So for Darwin, previously we were suggesting it might 49 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 2: be through Saturday afternoon and during Saturday night. Now we're 50 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 2: likely to see those winds possibly freshening from as early 51 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 2: as Friday night, but the damaging winger some more likely 52 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 2: through Saturday morning, with the peak of the winds through 53 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 2: Saturday afternoon into the early evening. So it's shifted sooner 54 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 2: by about six hours. This means by the time we 55 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 2: get to Sunday, we're going to be more quickly on 56 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,679 Speaker 2: that easing trend, which is good news. But it does 57 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 2: mean that we may need to be aware of that 58 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 2: windy weather starting earlier on Saturday. So in preparation, you know, 59 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 2: just check things in your yard, loose items, you know, 60 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 2: lawn chairs, that kind of thing that can get blown 61 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 2: around quite a bit and cause damage by these strong winds. 62 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 2: Just make sure that you've checked your yard, your property 63 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 2: and prepared yourself ahead of this system moving through on Saturday. 64 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: And Mariam, are we still expecting it, you know, to 65 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 1: be that category too? Are we concerned that it's moving 66 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: more quickly so it may be stronger at this point? 67 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, the expectation at this point in time is 68 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 2: still that it will remain at that category two system. 69 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 2: As I said earlier, with these sort of systems, there's 70 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 2: always that potential if it reaches the right environment, that 71 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 2: it could intensify further. It certainly is spending a lot 72 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 2: of time over water, and as I'm sure we're all aware, 73 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 2: in those warm waters that really help to act as 74 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 2: fuel for a developing tropical cyclone. But it's kind of 75 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 2: wheezing its way between these islands and these land areas, 76 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:21,799 Speaker 2: and that can decrease its potential to grow more towards 77 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 2: a severe category three tropical cyclone. Basically, what I'm saying 78 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 2: is there is still a chance, but most likely it 79 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 2: will remain a category too intensity. 80 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,919 Speaker 1: And Mariam, when are we expecting the next piece of advice? 81 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 1: I know everybody's at the point where we're keeping an 82 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: eye on the view of meteorology site it's in our 83 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: favorite sense for sure. 84 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. Look at this stage we're still in three 85 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 2: hourly updates, so the next update would then be due 86 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 2: at if I can do my time calculations correct one 87 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:54,359 Speaker 2: pm Central Standard time. We're not really going to go 88 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 2: to hourly updates until the system draws a lot closer 89 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 2: to the coast, So that's likely to be sometime tomorrow. 90 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 2: Whether it's tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon will depend on 91 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 2: how quickly this system moves. But look, the little rule 92 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,159 Speaker 2: of thumb is if you can see the eye of 93 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 2: the cyclone on the radar coverage, then you'll know we're 94 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 2: likely going into hourly updates for those products there. But 95 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 2: at the moment it's still every three hours. The system 96 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 2: is still some way away, but it's giving us time, 97 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 2: I guess, to prepare and get ready for its crossing. Well, 98 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 2: it's passing through over the next few days. 99 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 1: BERM Can I ask obviously a lot of discussion about 100 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 1: the wind us and you know, and what we're expecting 101 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: in that area, But what about when it comes to 102 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: that rainfall, Like, are we expecting this to be a 103 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 1: real sort of you know, heavy rain sort of situation. 104 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's definitely the potential for heavy falls increasing over 105 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,119 Speaker 2: the next few days. Today it's not looking too bad. 106 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 2: We are going to see scattered showers sort of pushing 107 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,159 Speaker 2: back across the top End coast, but it'll really be 108 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 2: through Friday that we start to see that risk of 109 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 2: heavy rain increasing. So it's going to hit that far 110 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 2: northwestern top End coast around the Coburg Marine Park Coburg 111 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 2: Peninsula through the morning and then push southwards. So through 112 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 2: Friday afternoon we're likely to see the rain starting to 113 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,359 Speaker 2: pick up across the Darwin area and that will only 114 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 2: continue into Saturday as that system draws nearer and crosses through. 115 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 2: So those of you who have been keeping an eye 116 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 2: on the Darwin forecast will note that our rainfall range 117 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 2: is currently suggesting twenty five to one hundred and ten millimeters. 118 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 2: It's quite a big range, I know, but what it's 119 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 2: what it's really trying to do is capture the possibility 120 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 2: that the system could be slower than expected, or it 121 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 2: could be faster than expected, but it is bringing the 122 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 2: potential for that heavy rainfall which can lead to flash flooding. 123 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 2: So for the northern coast of the Top End from 124 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 2: tomorrow as when we'll see those heavy falls really ramp up, 125 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 2: But for Darwin it's more likely late tomorrow going into Saturday, 126 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 2: that we'll see those heavy falls ramping up there. 127 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: Well, Miriam Bradbury, really appreciate your time this morning, and 128 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:58,479 Speaker 1: who knows, we'll probably talk again tomorrow. 129 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 2: At this rate flee we will. Thanks so much for 130 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 2: your time. 131 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: I really appreciate it.