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Speaker 1: Good morning everybody. Welcome to the Daily OS. It's the

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Speaker 1: first episode we've recorded in May. It's the second of May.

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Speaker 1: We're now only nineteen days away from the federal election.

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Speaker 1: Things are really heating up now. Labor had that big

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Speaker 1: campaign launch yesterday to send a sign that we are

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Speaker 1: now fully in election mode. Zara, hope you had a

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Speaker 1: lovely weekend. What is making news this morning?

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Speaker 2: Well, as you said, Labor were front and center this

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Speaker 2: weekend with a big campaign launch and it was at

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Speaker 2: that launch that it was announced that Labour would go

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Speaker 2: to the election with a new housing policy, so that

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Speaker 2: housing policy would see a future government, so future Labor

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Speaker 2: government if they were to win the election, by thirty

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Speaker 2: to forty percent of a property with the buyer so

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Speaker 2: alongside you the buyer. Under the proposal, Labor said that

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Speaker 2: it could cut the cost of a new home by

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Speaker 2: up to three hundred and eighty thousand dollars. Of course

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Speaker 2: that's in the more expensive areas and could help ten

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Speaker 2: thousand households a year break into the housing market.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has claimed a Russian

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Speaker 1: missile strike hidden airport in Odessa, damaging the city's runway.

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Speaker 1: The military said the runway is impossible to use as

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Speaker 1: a result of this. This all comes as strikes continued

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine's Donbas region over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: We reported on this one on Friday, and this story

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Speaker 2: has gone from bad to worse. The UK politician who

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Speaker 2: was caught watching pornography in parliament, he's resigned from his

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Speaker 2: seat Tory MP Neil Parish has been in Parliament since

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Speaker 2: twenty ten, and upon his resignation, he admitted over the

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Speaker 2: weekend that he had twice watched pornography in the House

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Speaker 2: of Commons.

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Speaker 1: And today's good news of Venus and Jupiter have performed

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Speaker 1: what is known as a celestial kiss by passing over

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Speaker 1: each other in a phenomenon more formally known as planetary conjunction.

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Speaker 1: According to astrophysicists, the romance has been brewing for a

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Speaker 1: number of weeks and it's the first time planets have

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Speaker 1: kiss since Jupiter and Saturn did at the end of

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty. For today's date dive, I had the opportunity

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Speaker 1: to sit down with National Affairs editor for the ten Network,

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Speaker 1: Hugh Riminton to kind of get another perspective on the

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Speaker 1: election as it stands. Right now. It was fascinating hearing

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Speaker 1: his take on where the two parties sit in this

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Speaker 1: critical period. Here's that discussion. Hugh Riminton, National Affairs editor

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Speaker 1: at ten News. First, thanks for joining us today on

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Speaker 1: the Daily Os podcast. It's fantastic to be with you.

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Speaker 1: We're going to be spending some time over the next

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Speaker 1: few weeks doing work with ten and it is incredibly exciting.

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Speaker 1: How are you finding the election traveling so far?

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Speaker 3: Delighted to be with the Daily Os. Sam, Look, it's

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Speaker 3: a really interesting election because it is not interesting. This

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Speaker 3: is unique in my experience. I've been covering elections in

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Speaker 3: one form or another since nineteen eighty four in Australia,

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Speaker 3: goes way back to early days of Hawk. There's a

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Speaker 3: lot of intense interest in the outcome by some people.

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Speaker 3: They want to know what government's going to emerge from it,

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Speaker 3: but they don't have weirdly the same level of interest

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Speaker 3: in the main leaders who are likely to emerge one

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Speaker 3: or the other as prime minister. So I think there's

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Speaker 3: a broadly speaking negative view of Scott Morrison. Even though

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Speaker 3: he's preferred prime minister, he is disliked more than he

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Speaker 3: has liked generally. Anthony Albineasi, though has failed to ignite

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Speaker 3: the population, the voting population much. He's still not known

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Speaker 3: by a lot of voters. Leadership is not everything in

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Speaker 3: an election. In fact, there is a fat group of

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Speaker 3: political science argument to say it counts for very little,

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Speaker 3: but it does tend to matter with swing voters and

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Speaker 3: people who make up their minds very late. The signs

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Speaker 3: indicate that. So on one hand it doesn't matter. On

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Speaker 3: another hand, it matters a great deal. And what we're

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Speaker 3: seeing at the moment is that there's no enthusiasm for

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Speaker 3: Anthony Albanesi in the way that you saw with Kevin

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Speaker 3: Right in two thousand and seven, with Bob Hawke in

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Speaker 3: nineteen eighty three, with GoF Whitlam in nineteen seventy two,

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Speaker 3: which were the times when Labor came to government from opposition,

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Speaker 3: and so that would be concerning if I was running

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Speaker 3: a Labor Party campaign. And I think the enthusiasm that

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Speaker 3: you see is starting to coalesce in particular seats around

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Speaker 3: this independence movement, the so called Teal Independence. So there

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Speaker 3: is a definite enthusiasm in those electorates for some of

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Speaker 3: those independents who are going to challenge very much against

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Speaker 3: liberal held seats, but that doesn't seem to be spreading

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Speaker 3: out into the sort of heartland seats which are really

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Speaker 3: a labor coalition battleground.

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Speaker 1: So how do you reconcile that apathy that you're describing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I agree with you. I think that for

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Speaker 1: both parties it's kind of look over there, this guy's

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Speaker 1: worse than we are. How do you reconc that with

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Speaker 1: record youth enrollment numbers in the enrollment period, does that

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Speaker 1: seem to be coming through? Does that signal seem to

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Speaker 1: be being received by the leader of the Opposition and

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Speaker 1: the Prime Minister.

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Speaker 3: I think it's really interesting you talk about the youth

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Speaker 3: vote and it's enfranchisement that as a number of people

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Speaker 3: have put themselves on the role, and that is really

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Speaker 3: really important. It goes to two things. Speaks of two

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Speaker 3: things to my mind. One is that the Australian Electoral

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Speaker 3: Commission is to be commended for the efficiency by which

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Speaker 3: it's reached out to people and encourage them to get

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Speaker 3: onto the role. I think there probably is a sense

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Speaker 3: of energy that's coming from younger voters, first time voters,

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Speaker 3: particularly around issues like climate change and also around things

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Speaker 3: like housing and rents. Looking to see if there's some

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Speaker 3: difference in housing and rents. What you have to realize,

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Speaker 3: and for younger voters it can be hard to get

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Speaker 3: your head around this is that the median age of

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Speaker 3: an Australian voter is over fifty. And what that means

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Speaker 3: is simply that if you take the citizens of Australia

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Speaker 3: who get the vote, strip out everyone who's under eighteen,

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Speaker 3: and just as a cohort population cohort, the midpoint is

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Speaker 3: just over fifty years old. And so that's why you've

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Speaker 3: seen politicians often seem to speak to a whole bunch

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Speaker 3: of issues that are not of interest to young voters.

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Speaker 3: And that's because young voters numerically are not the important cohort.

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Speaker 3: The ones where you win elections are up around the

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Speaker 3: fifty year olds, and they're dealing with other issues, certainly

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Speaker 3: mortgage strained for some, they deal with issues of age

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Speaker 3: cares mattered a lot because they're the ones looking after parents,

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Speaker 3: for example, of finding themselves in age care centers, and

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Speaker 3: they're also looking and concerned about their retirement incomes. So

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Speaker 3: people tend to get more conservative as voters when they

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Speaker 3: start to care about their retirement incomes because they really

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Speaker 3: really want stability around that later stage of their lives.

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Speaker 3: None of that is particularly interesting to a young voter,

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Speaker 3: who have much more urgent concerns as they perceive it,

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Speaker 3: around the future that they're growing up and into. So

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Speaker 3: it's wonderful that young voters are signing up and will

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Speaker 3: be a voice in this. The degree to which they'll

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Speaker 3: shift the election is less important, and the recognition that

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Speaker 3: for every young voter, there's someone who's seventy has also

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Speaker 3: got an equal vote and has perhaps a totally different

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Speaker 3: worldview and a totally different conception of what the history

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Speaker 3: is because I don't see themselves as being in it.

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Speaker 3: You know, they much more concerned with their own health

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Speaker 3: well being and you know, safety for their remaining times.

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Speaker 3: Those are different issues, and all of this essentially gets

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Speaker 3: put into the wash for an election.

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Speaker 1: Fascinating. We're definitely seeing that play out in the kind

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Speaker 1: of the talking points that the big leaders are following.

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Speaker 1: I think the key talking point, at least in the

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Speaker 1: last couple of days has been cost of living. We

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Speaker 1: saw some record inflation numbers last week. We're expecting the

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank to put up interest rates tomorrow, but we'll

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Speaker 1: have to wait until tomorrow afternoon to get a final

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Speaker 1: answer on that. How do you think the two major

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Speaker 1: parties are tracking in their response to the cost of

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Speaker 1: living tensions, particularly around housing.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so inflation takes in a lot of things, of course,

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Speaker 3: and some of those things are external to Australia. Ukraine

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Speaker 3: is having an effect on energy and also on wheat

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Speaker 3: which is flowing through. We've also had floods and other

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Speaker 3: weather events which you're affecting vegetables for example, as a

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Speaker 3: price at the markets. Petrol is being affected by global effects.

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Speaker 3: All of these are flowing in and already we've seen

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Speaker 3: with these inflation figures that came out I think just

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Speaker 3: last week they have blown the budget which only came

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Speaker 3: out in March. They've blown those underpinnings of expectations as

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Speaker 3: to how the economy is tracking already. So in a

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Speaker 3: matter of weeks things are in many ways worse with

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Speaker 3: inflation and because that then flows through and this can

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Speaker 3: be maddening on one level. That one of the ways

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Speaker 3: in which you try to contain inflation, and this is

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Speaker 3: what the Reserve Bank does, is it increases interest rates.

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Speaker 3: Now that means that if you're already struggling with higher

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Speaker 3: costs for your food, for your petrol, for all your

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Speaker 3: living expenses. You then have a higher cost again if

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Speaker 3: you happen to have a mortgage. So it just seems

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Speaker 3: to compound the difficulty. And so there are two big

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Speaker 3: issues that are going on with housing, and they affect

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Speaker 3: different demographic groups. Really. One is that people with mortgages,

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Speaker 3: particularly those who borrowed large to get into properties in

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Speaker 3: major cities, the huge cost everyone knows of buying property

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Speaker 3: in the last five years or so, are very very

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Speaker 3: exposed to increases and interest rates, and they're very nervous

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Speaker 3: and anxious about what that might mean, and they're worried

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Speaker 3: about that their property value might fall, which of course

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Speaker 3: doesn't matter until you sell the property, but it's still

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Speaker 3: not a good thing. And then you get people who

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Speaker 3: are trying to get into the property market and they

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Speaker 3: are just seeing that not only as enormously expensive, just

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Speaker 3: as the sort of sticker price to get a property,

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Speaker 3: but also the cost of managing the day that you'll

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Speaker 3: inevitably have is also about to go up. So that

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Speaker 3: makes people more and more anxious. And so I would say,

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Speaker 3: if there's one area in which you can see I

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Speaker 3: want to say the youth vote, I would say thirty

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Speaker 3: and under flowing through and finally being addressed to some

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Speaker 3: degree is that both major parties have come to a

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Speaker 3: recognition that housing affordability is a real issue. And it's

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Speaker 3: not just even weak to weak housing affordability, how do

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Speaker 3: you pay your rent this week? But it's also the

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Speaker 3: intergenerational unfairness that people of my age. I'm sixty one.

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Speaker 3: I bought my first house at twenty seven. It wasn't hard.

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Speaker 3: Now as you bought my first house at twenty four,

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Speaker 3: it wasn't hard, And I had two houses by the

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Speaker 3: time I was twenty seven because they were relatively cheap

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Speaker 3: compared with my income. Now that doesn't exist.

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Speaker 1: Anymore, It certainly does not exist anymore.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean for people of my age without any

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Speaker 3: great financial genius able to build ourselves into situations where

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Speaker 3: we sit on top of in many cases and big

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Speaker 3: cities million dollar plus sometimes multimillion dollar properties, and the

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Speaker 3: gate the drawbridge has gone up because our kids aren't

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Speaker 3: going to go out and get a job and have

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Speaker 3: a house in a capital city by the time they're

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Speaker 3: twenty four, you know, unless they're being helped by their parents,

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Speaker 3: or they win the lottery, or they're very wealthy. So

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Speaker 3: this is a profound societal unfairness, and the policies that

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Speaker 3: we're seeing from both sides are not going to address it, frankly,

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Speaker 3: because they'll tinker at the edges of it. They'll be

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Speaker 3: somewhat more or less welcome. But really the only thing

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Speaker 3: which makes a difference is if the treatment of property,

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Speaker 3: which was labor tried last time under Bill Shorten it

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Speaker 3: didn't work at all, needs to be completely reframed, which

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Speaker 3: might involve the price of property falling to make a

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Speaker 3: better chance for the next generation coming through. But of course,

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Speaker 3: people never vote for their own property to lose value.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's part of the tension that a

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Speaker 1: lot of young voters, first time voters, but also voters

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Speaker 1: who are voting for the first time as informed voters,

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Speaker 1: are feeling. Is that, particularly around costs of living and housing,

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Speaker 1: these policies being rolled out, but not only the major

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Speaker 1: parties but also some of the minor parties don't seem

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Speaker 1: to be endemically shifting the dial. And that is the

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Speaker 1: same for climate in some respects as well. Before we

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Speaker 1: wrap up, I wanted to ask you about Climate Q

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Speaker 1: because from my perspective it doesn't seem like we're having

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Speaker 1: the meaningful conversation about climate policy I thought we would

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Speaker 1: be having. Is that how you're seeing the playing field?

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Speaker 3: Well, what's happened is that the Coalition has sought to

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Speaker 3: neutralize that issue. It would have been kicked out on

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Speaker 3: its ear, Frankly, Scott Morrison the Coalition, There'd be no

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Speaker 3: question about it. They would be kicked out on their

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Speaker 3: ear had they not gone to the Glasgow Climate Summit

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Speaker 3: meeting offering zero net emissions twenty fifty. Now we've seen

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Speaker 3: in recent days the National Party saying oh it's dead

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Speaker 3: and buried or whatever was the phrase from Matt Canavan,

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Speaker 3: the former Energy Minister of Queensland National and we've heard

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Speaker 3: other L ANDP candidates saying, oh, this wiggle room around zero,

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Speaker 3: you know, don't worry about all that. You know, we're

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Speaker 3: not really going to go there. The fact is is

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Speaker 3: that it remains an issue, particularly with young voters, an

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Speaker 3: enormous issue with the young voters. And I think what

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Speaker 3: is going to be really interesting to see. I think

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Speaker 3: there's a very good chance we're going to wind up

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Speaker 3: with a hung parliament that is to say, neither major

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Speaker 3: party were winning in its own right, getting the seventy

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Speaker 3: six votes to govern in its own right, and that

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Speaker 3: is going to come down to a mix of independence.

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Speaker 3: And among those independents the preponderance now there used to

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Speaker 3: be conservative independence who would get up there. Increasingly they

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Speaker 3: tend to be more progressive independence for finding their way

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Speaker 3: onto the cross benches. And if we get these teal

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Speaker 3: independence in holding the balance of power, add to them

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Speaker 3: the Greens, add to them people like Andrew Wilkie in Tasmania,

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Speaker 3: and they will force a stronger policy base because I'll

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Speaker 3: basically say to either party, you're not going to be government.

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Speaker 3: We're not going to support you unless you are real

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Speaker 3: about these issues. And you know, the financial world, the

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Speaker 3: markets are shifting. You know, the people who deal with

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Speaker 3: money that Morgan Stanley, the rapacious capitalistic entity that's only

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Speaker 3: interested in making money, is reporting to its own investors.

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Speaker 3: As has been reported in the Financial Review, that the

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Speaker 3: cost savings are all in renewables, that these are the

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Speaker 3: ways in which power is going to be cheaper. The

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Speaker 3: big energy companies acknowledge that the long term power is

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Speaker 3: cheaper when we're on renewables. There are issues about it,

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Speaker 3: about continuity of supply, all those sorts of things, but

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Speaker 3: not only for the good of the planet, but for

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Speaker 3: the good of just simple financial decision making. That is

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Speaker 3: where the future must be. And you know, I would

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Speaker 3: hope that when the selection is done and dusted, you know,

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Speaker 3: the political numbers will be such that this will be addressed,

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Speaker 3: you know properly that Australia takes a proper place in

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Speaker 3: the world for our own good.

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Speaker 1: What's your advice to first time voters and maybe second

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Speaker 1: third time voters over the next three weeks in terms

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Speaker 1: of navigating the noise of the media cycle. It's going

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Speaker 1: to be an incredibly busy couple of weeks of politics.

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Speaker 1: How do we make sense of it all?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think one of the interesting things is to

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Speaker 3: really think about what are the issues that you care

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Speaker 3: about most, And for most people it may be two

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Speaker 3: or three issues, and there may be some gut feelings.

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Speaker 3: You may not like a particular person. It may not

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Speaker 3: be whether it's Scott Morrison or Anthony Albernizi, or you

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Speaker 3: may not like your local candidate or your local MP.

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Speaker 3: So you make the decisions, give it serious thought and

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Speaker 3: then also bear in mind that you're voting for two

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Speaker 3: chambers of the Parliament, so there's the House of Representatives

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Speaker 3: which will determine ultimately the structure of the government, but

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Speaker 3: also for the Senate, and you can vote below the line.

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Speaker 3: If you're first time voter, it can seem confusing. You

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Speaker 3: can vote above the line and since you put in

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Speaker 3: your preferences there, or go down and individually preference people

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Speaker 3: below the line. It can seem complicated. The Australian Electoral Commission,

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Speaker 3: if you go to their website, has good explainers about it.

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Speaker 3: So by all means, go and do your research at

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Speaker 3: the great phrase of the recent times, but ultimately make

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Speaker 3: a decision that you're comfortable with on the assumption that

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Speaker 3: what you are going to vote for. Assume you're the

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Speaker 3: only voter in the country and it all depends on

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Speaker 3: your vote.

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Speaker 1: Hire Ruyminton, thank you so much for joining us this

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Speaker 1: Monday morning. We're going to have plenty to do with

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Speaker 1: each other over the next few weeks and to have

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Speaker 1: someone with such wealth of experience by our side is

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Speaker 1: non owe, so thank you very much.

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Speaker 3: Now it's great to talk to you, sir,