WEBVTT - Kopi Time E101 - Reviewing our Top-10 Episodes 0:00:06.409 --> 0:00:09.689 Welcome to Coffee Time, a podcast series on Markets and 0:00:09.699 --> 0:00:13.260 Economies from D BS Group Research. I'm ba chief economist, 0:00:13.380 --> 0:00:16.500 welcoming you to our 101st episode, 0:00:17.389 --> 0:00:21.190 the series began right before the 2020 global pandemic. And 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:24.159 at that time, my idea was to record chats with thinkers. 0:00:24.170 --> 0:00:27.379 I meet during my travels, I really doubt if I'd 0:00:27.389 --> 0:00:33.110 have recorded 100 episodes with that model of operation by now. 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:36.389 But once the pandemic broke out remote recording with guests 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:39.830 all over the world became acceptable and away, we went. 0:00:40.209 --> 0:00:40.720 Now 0:00:41.209 --> 0:00:44.119 100 episodes is a lot and there have been some 0:00:44.130 --> 0:00:47.259 really memorable ones. We have covered our bread and butter, 0:00:47.270 --> 0:00:51.349 global macro and markets in 41 episodes, but we've gone 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:54.099 way beyond that as well. Given the times we live in, 0:00:54.110 --> 0:00:57.849 we've had a dozen episodes on Geopolitics, eight on tech 0:00:57.860 --> 0:01:01.000 and fintech and a dozen on climate change. An issue. 0:01:01.009 --> 0:01:02.159 Close to my heart. 0:01:02.500 --> 0:01:10.830 Beyond that, we've covered banking, energy, metals, crypto, financial inclusion, health, science, innovation, 0:01:11.099 --> 0:01:17.790 gender and wealth management. Quite the bread. Never a dull moment. Today, 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:20.459 I'd like to take stock of the top 10 episodes 0:01:20.470 --> 0:01:23.750 of the series. All of which have had between various 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:29.569 podcast platforms and youtube versions over 10,000 downloads plus views. 0:01:29.830 --> 0:01:33.080 The number one in this ranking in fact has over 0:01:33.089 --> 0:01:38.360 175,000 views and nearly 900 comments on youtube. But that 0:01:38.370 --> 0:01:42.509 will come later. First. My only guest to have appeared 0:01:42.519 --> 0:01:46.400 three times China expert Bert Hoffman, Director of the East 0:01:46.410 --> 0:01:50.449 Asian Institute at National University of Singapore Bird has been 0:01:50.459 --> 0:01:55.669 on episodes 1 46 in 93 in these three occasions, 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:57.599 we have gone deep on China. 0:01:58.309 --> 0:02:02.769 We have discussed uh COVID-19 fallout likely economic impact on 0:02:02.779 --> 0:02:07.160 policy response, the political dimensions and the Chinese economies much 0:02:07.279 --> 0:02:11.360 needed move towards service and consumption orientation. In each of 0:02:11.369 --> 0:02:17.809 these episodes, you will find candid and tight insights articulated cogently. 0:02:18.179 --> 0:02:20.820 I think I can safely say that Bird will be 0:02:20.830 --> 0:02:24.240 the first guest on the series to appear for 1/4 time. 0:02:25.119 --> 0:02:30.960 Then there is astute investment strategist Kumar on episodes 14 0:02:30.970 --> 0:02:35.978 and 58 connecting from Santa Monica, California with three. We 0:02:35.990 --> 0:02:39.649 have discussed global economic outlook with the focus on the US. 0:02:39.660 --> 0:02:45.880 Inflation risks fed credibility, housing market, rising inequality. Three to 0:02:46.044 --> 0:02:48.195 not give the fed a break. So you can hear 0:02:48.205 --> 0:02:52.133 some serious criticism of various fed policy actions there. Uh 0:02:52.145 --> 0:02:56.494 but most importantly, free market timing in the US fixed 0:02:56.505 --> 0:03:00.154 income is just impeccable evidence of that is ample in 0:03:00.163 --> 0:03:03.095 both of these episodes. In my show notes from July 0:03:03.104 --> 0:03:08.315 21 he is described as short duration neutral to be 0:03:08.544 --> 0:03:12.835 us dollar long, gold and long commodities, food, energy and metals. 0:03:12.845 --> 0:03:14.354 Mind you July 21 0:03:14.580 --> 0:03:19.288 and very little conviction equities. That's an absolutely killer portfolio 0:03:19.300 --> 0:03:22.739 allocation for what was to come in the following year. 0:03:22.860 --> 0:03:25.149 So she has been just outstanding 0:03:26.490 --> 0:03:31.029 from markets to pandemic back in the summer of 2020 0:03:31.038 --> 0:03:34.699 battle days when the world was mired in uncertainty about 0:03:34.710 --> 0:03:38.580 the Coronavirus pandemic. We spoke with a man who discovered 0:03:38.589 --> 0:03:41.250 the back to man link in the SARS virus way 0:03:41.259 --> 0:03:44.660 back in 2003 and had been deeply involved in getting 0:03:44.669 --> 0:03:46.600 to the bottom of the COVID-19 pandemic. 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:51.619 Professor director of the program in emerging infectious diseases at 0:03:51.630 --> 0:03:55.190 Duke N Us Medical School walked us through numerous questions 0:03:55.199 --> 0:03:58.570 that we had in those days about the Coronavirus pandemic. 0:03:58.630 --> 0:04:02.410 What's the difference between SARS COV two and the COVID-19 virus? 0:04:02.630 --> 0:04:05.330 Where did it originate as if we knew or could 0:04:05.339 --> 0:04:08.259 it be manmade intent? A lot of conspiracy theories were 0:04:08.270 --> 0:04:13.429 to follow. Why is it so infectious? Are asymptomatic carriers infectious? 0:04:13.479 --> 0:04:14.070 How good are 0:04:14.149 --> 0:04:16.769 for the test? And what's the pipeline for rapid tests? 0:04:16.779 --> 0:04:20.410 What about the antibodies and convalescent plasma therapy? Think of 0:04:20.420 --> 0:04:22.660 the questions we had in those days. What's the latest 0:04:22.670 --> 0:04:26.980 on antiviral developments? What about the Holy grail of vaccine development? 0:04:27.140 --> 0:04:30.500 It's a great tour going back in the time machine 0:04:30.510 --> 0:04:33.988 to those days. I'm so grateful that Professor Lin came 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:36.928 to the podcast and offered his expert opinion given that 0:04:36.940 --> 0:04:40.309 there was so much misperception and fake news around that 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:41.260 issue in those days. 0:04:41.899 --> 0:04:46.570 Now, the next widely downloaded and shared podcast was on Brexit, 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:52.269 while not as cataclysmic as the pandemic, but tumultuous. Nonetheless, 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:55.670 I decided to take a deep dive on Brexit's past, 0:04:55.678 --> 0:04:59.828 present and future with perhaps a foremost expert on the issue. Sir, 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:03.869 Ivan Rogers, who was the permanent representative of the UK 0:05:03.940 --> 0:05:06.769 to the EU between 2013 and 2017. 0:05:07.149 --> 0:05:10.700 He also served various top treasury roles under Kenneth Clark, 0:05:10.709 --> 0:05:15.679 Gordon Brown and Tony Blair eloquent and prescient. Uh Ivan 0:05:15.690 --> 0:05:18.899 Rogers took stock of how the UK ended up with Brexit. 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:22.140 He summarized the risks around the rift between the UK 0:05:22.149 --> 0:05:25.570 and EU which lingers on, of course, the usefulness of 0:05:25.579 --> 0:05:29.100 multilateral pacts covered in trade and commerce and perhaps most 0:05:29.109 --> 0:05:31.719 profoundly the role of the UK in the global landscape. 0:05:32.140 --> 0:05:35.390 Looking forward, he offered caution and a little bit of 0:05:35.399 --> 0:05:39.919 hope for the UK with clear eyed exposition on the 0:05:39.928 --> 0:05:44.469 challenges associated with the pandemic, innovation, labor market, debt, trading, 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:47.649 goods and services, and evolving relationship with the EU and 0:05:47.660 --> 0:05:50.109 the US. It was a tour de force and again, 0:05:50.119 --> 0:05:53.928 like my favorite other podcast that we're discussing in this episode. 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:58.130 Absolutely spot on and worth revisiting even today. Um You 0:05:58.140 --> 0:06:00.269 just just check it out. Um 0:06:00.920 --> 0:06:03.369 As I said earlier, uh we have done a dozen 0:06:03.380 --> 0:06:07.469 episodes on climate change, including with uh climate investor mad. 0:06:07.890 --> 0:06:11.488 He's been there twice. E CE CBS uh head of 0:06:11.500 --> 0:06:14.450 systemic risk, Paul. Hi, he has been there twice as well. 0:06:14.488 --> 0:06:17.970 China climate expert, Ma Jun, who has represented China in 0:06:17.980 --> 0:06:22.089 the G 20 climate change roundtable, Lin Li uh head 0:06:22.100 --> 0:06:24.989 of Global Center for maritime decarbonisation in Singapore. 0:06:25.339 --> 0:06:29.350 Unsurprisingly though the biggest hit of all on climate change 0:06:29.428 --> 0:06:34.170 related episodes was Grace Fu Singapore's Minister for Sustainability and 0:06:34.178 --> 0:06:39.920 Environment who joined us in episode 79. Last July in 0:06:39.928 --> 0:06:43.269 the conversation, Mr Fu laid out in sobering detail, the 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:47.000 issues associated with recalibrating the entire Singaporean economy for re 0:06:47.010 --> 0:06:51.010 transition with heightened focus on energy and food security. 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:55.269 While cognizant of the steep hill to climb toward a 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:59.529 midcentury dead zero goal, Minister Fu was constructive about the 0:06:59.540 --> 0:07:03.779 work being done with public private coordination and cooperation as 0:07:03.790 --> 0:07:06.669 well as the myriad of financial and technological solutions available 0:07:06.774 --> 0:07:11.035 global and under development. We went over Singapore's plans for 0:07:11.045 --> 0:07:15.333 carbon tax, greening of the energy grid and overall infrastructure, 0:07:15.394 --> 0:07:19.515 the exciting area of urban agri and the ongoing changes 0:07:19.524 --> 0:07:21.994 in global regulatory environment for decarbonisation. 0:07:22.529 --> 0:07:26.850 I came out of that recording with a sense of somewhat, 0:07:26.859 --> 0:07:28.510 you know, being sober in the sense that there was 0:07:28.519 --> 0:07:31.640 such a long road ahead and the huge challenges outstanding. 0:07:31.700 --> 0:07:34.980 But I was also encouraged by the energy and resources 0:07:34.989 --> 0:07:38.089 being devoted to this foremost challenge of our lifetime and 0:07:38.100 --> 0:07:39.940 our generation and generations to come 0:07:40.769 --> 0:07:44.540 now for the most unusual setting of this series on 0:07:44.549 --> 0:07:48.750 a beautiful afternoon back in August 2021. Uh We set 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:52.440 up by the waters in the island of Sentosa there, 0:07:52.700 --> 0:07:56.700 the mound with the Singapore skyline and the port behind us. 0:07:56.709 --> 0:08:00.339 He's the chief fintech officer at the Montreal Authority of Singapore. 0:08:00.350 --> 0:08:03.079 He and I sat down and recorded episode 60. 0:08:03.350 --> 0:08:07.839 He began the conversation by noting that Singapore's relatively small 0:08:07.850 --> 0:08:12.339 market size paved the way for numerous innovations in the 0:08:12.350 --> 0:08:14.458 area of business to business. Fintech. 0:08:14.820 --> 0:08:18.220 Uh Sonando then went over Singapore's journey of developing fintech 0:08:18.230 --> 0:08:22.850 relevant human capital, raising growth, capital, fostering community capital and 0:08:22.859 --> 0:08:26.869 entrenching trust capital over the past half a decade. So 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:29.910 you can see the theme here various different kinds of capital. 0:08:30.059 --> 0:08:35.429 The journey has also entailed major regulatory developments, sandbox experiments, 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:39.890 collaboration with key multilateral official sector institutions, as well as 0:08:39.900 --> 0:08:41.728 various private sector entities, 0:08:42.539 --> 0:08:47.130 foundational public goods such as digital identity, trusted data exchange, 0:08:47.140 --> 0:08:52.929 interoperable payment systems and consent architecture have been developed, paving 0:08:52.940 --> 0:08:55.530 the way for innovation in Singapore's domestic as well as 0:08:55.539 --> 0:09:00.489 cross border payments. Fundamentally changing the cost, speed and security 0:09:00.500 --> 0:09:03.729 of such transactions. So and I then talked about the 0:09:03.739 --> 0:09:07.369 application of central bank digital currencies and why such currencies 0:09:07.380 --> 0:09:09.929 have better use case for a developing country than a 0:09:09.940 --> 0:09:10.968 developed one. 0:09:11.169 --> 0:09:14.500 He then elaborated on the digital transformation challenges faced by 0:09:14.510 --> 0:09:17.729 small and medium sized enterprises and how MA S was 0:09:17.739 --> 0:09:19.500 helping address them 0:09:19.859 --> 0:09:22.590 uh on the issue of climate change. He saw the 0:09:22.599 --> 0:09:25.729 fintech space as a critical source of data and behavioral 0:09:25.739 --> 0:09:28.468 nudges that can move the needle especially with respect to 0:09:28.479 --> 0:09:33.320 green solutions needed by companies and individuals. Singapore has lately 0:09:33.330 --> 0:09:36.968 become a vibrant space for green product related research and development, 0:09:36.979 --> 0:09:40.820 as well as fundraising something the regulators and authorities have 0:09:40.830 --> 0:09:42.450 encouraged actively. 0:09:42.770 --> 0:09:45.479 I then asked something to what about the future technologies 0:09:45.489 --> 0:09:49.500 and solutions in the pipeline at what key developments awaited us? 0:09:49.510 --> 0:09:52.239 You can hear about his crystal ball gazing in that 0:09:52.250 --> 0:09:56.200 episode as well. Again, just a reminder that was episode 0:09:56.210 --> 0:10:00.218 60 back in July 2021 0:10:01.039 --> 0:10:05.210 from fintech to crypto. We've had a couple of episodes 0:10:05.219 --> 0:10:09.319 of crypto, for example, episode 28 was devoted to Bitcoin 0:10:09.419 --> 0:10:14.459 and the investment case with Michael Sonenshein of Grayscale investments. 0:10:14.609 --> 0:10:18.489 Um but far more important and memorable for me was 0:10:18.500 --> 0:10:19.429 episode 89 0:10:20.070 --> 0:10:23.460 recorded in November last year on the sidelines of the 0:10:23.469 --> 0:10:27.400 Singapore fintech Festival 2022 we have the honor of hosting 0:10:27.409 --> 0:10:32.460 Stuart Haber. Doctor Heber call along with Scott Stora coined 0:10:32.469 --> 0:10:36.119 a Blockchain technique in 1990 which was later adopted by 0:10:36.130 --> 0:10:41.409 Satoshi Nakamoto. That mysterious guy as the basic mechanism for 0:10:41.419 --> 0:10:42.979 data integrity in Bitcoin. 0:10:43.409 --> 0:10:47.939 We began that conversation traveling back over three decades to 0:10:47.950 --> 0:10:51.200 understand the problem and motivation that drove Haber and ST 0:10:51.690 --> 0:10:55.900 for developing the Blockchain. It is clear even as young 0:10:55.909 --> 0:11:00.819 coders and cryptographers, their ambitious ambition was substantial and their 0:11:00.830 --> 0:11:05.140 goal was to have a transformative and lasting impact on 0:11:05.150 --> 0:11:09.260 the way civilizations records are stored. We then talked about 0:11:09.270 --> 0:11:11.799 the seminal moment in 2008 when 0:11:12.250 --> 0:11:14.640 Sato, who I mentioned as a he earlier could be 0:11:14.650 --> 0:11:18.020 a she uh that white paper came out. Uh And 0:11:18.030 --> 0:11:21.059 Doctor Hebert's take on that then and now we tackle 0:11:21.070 --> 0:11:25.400 the questions of a crypto bubble. Bitcoin's adverse environmental impact 0:11:25.409 --> 0:11:29.150 and possible solutions around it. Proliferation of tech solutions looking 0:11:29.159 --> 0:11:33.179 for a problem and applications that appeal to him. Doctor 0:11:33.190 --> 0:11:36.380 Haber talked about his current research and took on my 0:11:36.390 --> 0:11:40.200 questions on the potential impact of quantum computing in cryptography 0:11:40.210 --> 0:11:41.880 based record authentication, 0:11:42.330 --> 0:11:46.299 a brilliant mind with outstanding insights. OK. 0:11:46.900 --> 0:11:51.030 Now we're in the top 3d Bs, Ceo Piush Gupta 0:11:51.039 --> 0:11:54.679 came by to mark episode 50 of COVID time. We 0:11:54.690 --> 0:11:57.960 squeezed in a lot. In that episode, Peche talked about 0:11:57.969 --> 0:12:01.130 the track record of banks during the pandemic, the evolving 0:12:01.140 --> 0:12:05.380 notion of data privacy and societal responsibilities. The most interesting 0:12:05.390 --> 0:12:09.330 instances of accelerated disruption due to the pandemic, remote 0:12:09.419 --> 0:12:12.770 working and the future of office short and long term 0:12:12.780 --> 0:12:16.789 challenges facing banks gaps in the way we assess economies 0:12:16.799 --> 0:12:20.809 and companies E S G as an opportunity, not obligation 0:12:20.950 --> 0:12:24.669 and Southeast Asia's prospects in the decades ahead. It was 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:28.830 a riveting discussion and again, points remain as valid then 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:29.729 as they are today. 0:12:31.030 --> 0:12:36.270 Our second most talked about guest is Rara Rajan, professor 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.348 at University of Chicago. He joined us in the early 0:12:39.359 --> 0:12:42.359 days of the pandemic on episode eight. And then he 0:12:42.369 --> 0:12:46.070 kindly came by to mark episode 100 last month. Very 0:12:46.080 --> 0:12:48.979 few thinkers in my view have been as prescient as 0:12:48.989 --> 0:12:52.979 Doctor Rajan in capturing the fault lines of modern finance. 0:12:52.989 --> 0:12:54.919 It was a privilege to have him on the show. 0:12:55.190 --> 0:12:59.400 We began with the here and now duration mismatch risk 0:12:59.409 --> 0:13:02.729 causing a rise in vulnerability among banks and non bank 0:13:02.739 --> 0:13:06.700 financial institutions in the US. Is this an inevitable result 0:13:06.710 --> 0:13:10.229 of the exceptional monetary accommodation of the past decade and 0:13:10.239 --> 0:13:13.619 a half? Um And then, which then led to some 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:13.919 degree of 0:13:14.275 --> 0:13:17.694 Hinton Rau says, yes. Uh there were other questions that 0:13:17.705 --> 0:13:20.875 we discussed. Uh why haven't post G F C regulations 0:13:20.885 --> 0:13:24.103 stemmed such risks from materializing? What are the indicators to 0:13:24.114 --> 0:13:27.484 watch going forward and what can policymakers do at this point? 0:13:27.655 --> 0:13:30.603 What about the entire edifice of inflation targeting and where 0:13:30.614 --> 0:13:32.765 do the emerging market economies fit into all this? 0:13:33.450 --> 0:13:38.119 While this discussion focused largely on financial market stress and 0:13:38.130 --> 0:13:41.419 central uh banking. Uh Professor Rajan also weighed in on 0:13:41.429 --> 0:13:44.039 issues very close to his heart, the issue of sovereign 0:13:44.049 --> 0:13:47.020 debt restructuring that is badly needed for a number of 0:13:47.030 --> 0:13:49.960 developing countries with critical roles to be played by credit, 0:13:49.969 --> 0:13:53.559 credit nations and multilateral organizations. 0:13:54.309 --> 0:13:58.580 Finally, from the number one episode of cope time by 0:13:58.590 --> 0:14:03.099 a wide margin as episode 52 Hira Mahala, veteran expert 0:14:03.109 --> 0:14:07.640 on geopolitics and presently distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute. 0:14:07.650 --> 0:14:11.559 Talked about the urgent need for constructive engagement with China 0:14:11.570 --> 0:14:14.520 to avoid the risk of a lose lose outcome from 0:14:14.530 --> 0:14:15.010 the world. 0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:19.580 A pragmatic trade of oriented strategy to deal with China 0:14:19.590 --> 0:14:24.280 would help achieve peace and prosperity for all while ideologically 0:14:24.289 --> 0:14:29.799 driven confrontations would only keep escalating matters in Professor Mei's view, 0:14:30.369 --> 0:14:35.320 as always aide uh Mr Alwani Fan, global history and 0:14:35.330 --> 0:14:40.239 geography to draw in lessons for policymakers and non-government observers alike. 0:14:40.530 --> 0:14:44.119 Check out the video of this interaction on youtube and 0:14:44.130 --> 0:14:47.340 the nearly 900 comments uh that are at at at 0:14:47.349 --> 0:14:50.099 the bottom. There are some of those comments are really something. 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.969 So there you have it. Our top 10 looking forward 0:14:53.979 --> 0:14:56.659 to sharing many such moments with you in the coming days. 0:14:56.789 --> 0:15:00.580 Coby time is for information only does not represent any 0:15:00.590 --> 0:15:04.929 trade recommendation. All 101 episodes of Coby Time are available 0:15:04.940 --> 0:15:08.869 on youtube and on all major podcast platforms including Apple 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.570 Google and Spotify. As for our research publications, webinars and 0:15:12.580 --> 0:15:15.090 live streams, you can find them all by Googling the 0:15:15.099 --> 0:15:18.450 D BS research library. A few thanks to be made. 0:15:18.580 --> 0:15:20.909 Uh Martin Tay. He, 0:15:21.010 --> 0:15:23.700 he was there with me from the very beginning and 0:15:23.710 --> 0:15:26.469 helped set up the whole framework and ran the podcast 0:15:26.479 --> 0:15:29.599 as a producer for a good couple of years. Ken 0:15:29.609 --> 0:15:34.890 Delbridge from Spice Studios is my current producer. Absolutely outstanding 0:15:34.900 --> 0:15:37.890 and reliable Daisy Sherma and Violet Lee from D V 0:15:37.900 --> 0:15:42.200 S group. Research, provide post editorial and publication support and 0:15:42.210 --> 0:15:45.799 this podcast would go, would go nowhere without them either. So, 0:15:45.809 --> 0:15:47.270 thanks to all of them and thanks to you, our 0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:50.619 listeners have a great day. Keep listening to Kobe time.