Speaker 1: Welcome to Coffee Time, a podcast series on Markets and
Speaker 1: Economies from D BS Group Research. I'm ba chief economist,
Speaker 1: welcoming you to our 101st episode,
Speaker 1: the series began right before the 2020 global pandemic. And
Speaker 1: at that time, my idea was to record chats with thinkers.
Speaker 1: I meet during my travels, I really doubt if I'd
Speaker 1: have recorded 100 episodes with that model of operation by now.
Speaker 1: But once the pandemic broke out remote recording with guests
Speaker 1: all over the world became acceptable and away, we went.
Speaker 1: Now
Speaker 1: 100 episodes is a lot and there have been some
Speaker 1: really memorable ones. We have covered our bread and butter,
Speaker 1: global macro and markets in 41 episodes, but we've gone
Speaker 1: way beyond that as well. Given the times we live in,
Speaker 1: we've had a dozen episodes on Geopolitics, eight on tech
Speaker 1: and fintech and a dozen on climate change. An issue.
Speaker 1: Close to my heart.
Speaker 1: Beyond that, we've covered banking, energy, metals, crypto, financial inclusion, health, science, innovation,
Speaker 1: gender and wealth management. Quite the bread. Never a dull moment. Today,
Speaker 1: I'd like to take stock of the top 10 episodes
Speaker 1: of the series. All of which have had between various
Speaker 1: podcast platforms and youtube versions over 10,000 downloads plus views.
Speaker 1: The number one in this ranking in fact has over
Speaker 1: 175,000 views and nearly 900 comments on youtube. But that
Speaker 1: will come later. First. My only guest to have appeared
Speaker 1: three times China expert Bert Hoffman, Director of the East
Speaker 1: Asian Institute at National University of Singapore Bird has been
Speaker 1: on episodes 1 46 in 93 in these three occasions,
Speaker 1: we have gone deep on China.
Speaker 1: We have discussed uh COVID-19 fallout likely economic impact on
Speaker 1: policy response, the political dimensions and the Chinese economies much
Speaker 1: needed move towards service and consumption orientation. In each of
Speaker 1: these episodes, you will find candid and tight insights articulated cogently.
Speaker 1: I think I can safely say that Bird will be
Speaker 1: the first guest on the series to appear for 1/4 time.
Speaker 1: Then there is astute investment strategist Kumar on episodes 14
Speaker 1: and 58 connecting from Santa Monica, California with three. We
Speaker 1: have discussed global economic outlook with the focus on the US.
Speaker 1: Inflation risks fed credibility, housing market, rising inequality. Three to
Speaker 1: not give the fed a break. So you can hear
Speaker 1: some serious criticism of various fed policy actions there. Uh
Speaker 1: but most importantly, free market timing in the US fixed
Speaker 1: income is just impeccable evidence of that is ample in
Speaker 1: both of these episodes. In my show notes from July
Speaker 1: 21 he is described as short duration neutral to be
Speaker 1: us dollar long, gold and long commodities, food, energy and metals.
Speaker 1: Mind you July 21
Speaker 1: and very little conviction equities. That's an absolutely killer portfolio
Speaker 1: allocation for what was to come in the following year.
Speaker 1: So she has been just outstanding
Speaker 1: from markets to pandemic back in the summer of 2020
Speaker 1: battle days when the world was mired in uncertainty about
Speaker 1: the Coronavirus pandemic. We spoke with a man who discovered
Speaker 1: the back to man link in the SARS virus way
Speaker 1: back in 2003 and had been deeply involved in getting
Speaker 1: to the bottom of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Speaker 1: Professor director of the program in emerging infectious diseases at
Speaker 1: Duke N Us Medical School walked us through numerous questions
Speaker 1: that we had in those days about the Coronavirus pandemic.
Speaker 1: What's the difference between SARS COV two and the COVID-19 virus?
Speaker 1: Where did it originate as if we knew or could
Speaker 1: it be manmade intent? A lot of conspiracy theories were
Speaker 1: to follow. Why is it so infectious? Are asymptomatic carriers infectious?
Speaker 1: How good are
Speaker 1: for the test? And what's the pipeline for rapid tests?
Speaker 1: What about the antibodies and convalescent plasma therapy? Think of
Speaker 1: the questions we had in those days. What's the latest
Speaker 1: on antiviral developments? What about the Holy grail of vaccine development?
Speaker 1: It's a great tour going back in the time machine
Speaker 1: to those days. I'm so grateful that Professor Lin came
Speaker 1: to the podcast and offered his expert opinion given that
Speaker 1: there was so much misperception and fake news around that
Speaker 1: issue in those days.
Speaker 1: Now, the next widely downloaded and shared podcast was on Brexit,
Speaker 1: while not as cataclysmic as the pandemic, but tumultuous. Nonetheless,
Speaker 1: I decided to take a deep dive on Brexit's past,
Speaker 1: present and future with perhaps a foremost expert on the issue. Sir,
Speaker 1: Ivan Rogers, who was the permanent representative of the UK
Speaker 1: to the EU between 2013 and 2017.
Speaker 1: He also served various top treasury roles under Kenneth Clark,
Speaker 1: Gordon Brown and Tony Blair eloquent and prescient. Uh Ivan
Speaker 1: Rogers took stock of how the UK ended up with Brexit.
Speaker 1: He summarized the risks around the rift between the UK
Speaker 1: and EU which lingers on, of course, the usefulness of
Speaker 1: multilateral pacts covered in trade and commerce and perhaps most
Speaker 1: profoundly the role of the UK in the global landscape.
Speaker 1: Looking forward, he offered caution and a little bit of
Speaker 1: hope for the UK with clear eyed exposition on the
Speaker 1: challenges associated with the pandemic, innovation, labor market, debt, trading,
Speaker 1: goods and services, and evolving relationship with the EU and
Speaker 1: the US. It was a tour de force and again,
Speaker 1: like my favorite other podcast that we're discussing in this episode.
Speaker 1: Absolutely spot on and worth revisiting even today. Um You
Speaker 1: just just check it out. Um
Speaker 1: As I said earlier, uh we have done a dozen
Speaker 1: episodes on climate change, including with uh climate investor mad.
Speaker 1: He's been there twice. E CE CBS uh head of
Speaker 1: systemic risk, Paul. Hi, he has been there twice as well.
Speaker 1: China climate expert, Ma Jun, who has represented China in
Speaker 1: the G 20 climate change roundtable, Lin Li uh head
Speaker 1: of Global Center for maritime decarbonisation in Singapore.
Speaker 1: Unsurprisingly though the biggest hit of all on climate change
Speaker 1: related episodes was Grace Fu Singapore's Minister for Sustainability and
Speaker 1: Environment who joined us in episode 79. Last July in
Speaker 1: the conversation, Mr Fu laid out in sobering detail, the
Speaker 1: issues associated with recalibrating the entire Singaporean economy for re
Speaker 1: transition with heightened focus on energy and food security.
Speaker 1: While cognizant of the steep hill to climb toward a
Speaker 1: midcentury dead zero goal, Minister Fu was constructive about the
Speaker 1: work being done with public private coordination and cooperation as
Speaker 1: well as the myriad of financial and technological solutions available
Speaker 1: global and under development. We went over Singapore's plans for
Speaker 1: carbon tax, greening of the energy grid and overall infrastructure,
Speaker 1: the exciting area of urban agri and the ongoing changes
Speaker 1: in global regulatory environment for decarbonisation.
Speaker 1: I came out of that recording with a sense of somewhat,
Speaker 1: you know, being sober in the sense that there was
Speaker 1: such a long road ahead and the huge challenges outstanding.
Speaker 1: But I was also encouraged by the energy and resources
Speaker 1: being devoted to this foremost challenge of our lifetime and
Speaker 1: our generation and generations to come
Speaker 1: now for the most unusual setting of this series on
Speaker 1: a beautiful afternoon back in August 2021. Uh We set
Speaker 1: up by the waters in the island of Sentosa there,
Speaker 1: the mound with the Singapore skyline and the port behind us.
Speaker 1: He's the chief fintech officer at the Montreal Authority of Singapore.
Speaker 1: He and I sat down and recorded episode 60.
Speaker 1: He began the conversation by noting that Singapore's relatively small
Speaker 1: market size paved the way for numerous innovations in the
Speaker 1: area of business to business. Fintech.
Speaker 1: Uh Sonando then went over Singapore's journey of developing fintech
Speaker 1: relevant human capital, raising growth, capital, fostering community capital and
Speaker 1: entrenching trust capital over the past half a decade. So
Speaker 1: you can see the theme here various different kinds of capital.
Speaker 1: The journey has also entailed major regulatory developments, sandbox experiments,
Speaker 1: collaboration with key multilateral official sector institutions, as well as
Speaker 1: various private sector entities,
Speaker 1: foundational public goods such as digital identity, trusted data exchange,
Speaker 1: interoperable payment systems and consent architecture have been developed, paving
Speaker 1: the way for innovation in Singapore's domestic as well as
Speaker 1: cross border payments. Fundamentally changing the cost, speed and security
Speaker 1: of such transactions. So and I then talked about the
Speaker 1: application of central bank digital currencies and why such currencies
Speaker 1: have better use case for a developing country than a
Speaker 1: developed one.
Speaker 1: He then elaborated on the digital transformation challenges faced by
Speaker 1: small and medium sized enterprises and how MA S was
Speaker 1: helping address them
Speaker 1: uh on the issue of climate change. He saw the
Speaker 1: fintech space as a critical source of data and behavioral
Speaker 1: nudges that can move the needle especially with respect to
Speaker 1: green solutions needed by companies and individuals. Singapore has lately
Speaker 1: become a vibrant space for green product related research and development,
Speaker 1: as well as fundraising something the regulators and authorities have
Speaker 1: encouraged actively.
Speaker 1: I then asked something to what about the future technologies
Speaker 1: and solutions in the pipeline at what key developments awaited us?
Speaker 1: You can hear about his crystal ball gazing in that
Speaker 1: episode as well. Again, just a reminder that was episode
Speaker 1: 60 back in July 2021
Speaker 1: from fintech to crypto. We've had a couple of episodes
Speaker 1: of crypto, for example, episode 28 was devoted to Bitcoin
Speaker 1: and the investment case with Michael Sonenshein of Grayscale investments.
Speaker 1: Um but far more important and memorable for me was
Speaker 1: episode 89
Speaker 1: recorded in November last year on the sidelines of the
Speaker 1: Singapore fintech Festival 2022 we have the honor of hosting
Speaker 1: Stuart Haber. Doctor Heber call along with Scott Stora coined
Speaker 1: a Blockchain technique in 1990 which was later adopted by
Speaker 1: Satoshi Nakamoto. That mysterious guy as the basic mechanism for
Speaker 1: data integrity in Bitcoin.
Speaker 1: We began that conversation traveling back over three decades to
Speaker 1: understand the problem and motivation that drove Haber and ST
Speaker 1: for developing the Blockchain. It is clear even as young
Speaker 1: coders and cryptographers, their ambitious ambition was substantial and their
Speaker 1: goal was to have a transformative and lasting impact on
Speaker 1: the way civilizations records are stored. We then talked about
Speaker 1: the seminal moment in 2008 when
Speaker 1: Sato, who I mentioned as a he earlier could be
Speaker 1: a she uh that white paper came out. Uh And
Speaker 1: Doctor Hebert's take on that then and now we tackle
Speaker 1: the questions of a crypto bubble. Bitcoin's adverse environmental impact
Speaker 1: and possible solutions around it. Proliferation of tech solutions looking
Speaker 1: for a problem and applications that appeal to him. Doctor
Speaker 1: Haber talked about his current research and took on my
Speaker 1: questions on the potential impact of quantum computing in cryptography
Speaker 1: based record authentication,
Speaker 1: a brilliant mind with outstanding insights. OK.
Speaker 1: Now we're in the top 3d Bs, Ceo Piush Gupta
Speaker 1: came by to mark episode 50 of COVID time. We
Speaker 1: squeezed in a lot. In that episode, Peche talked about
Speaker 1: the track record of banks during the pandemic, the evolving
Speaker 1: notion of data privacy and societal responsibilities. The most interesting
Speaker 1: instances of accelerated disruption due to the pandemic, remote
Speaker 1: working and the future of office short and long term
Speaker 1: challenges facing banks gaps in the way we assess economies
Speaker 1: and companies E S G as an opportunity, not obligation
Speaker 1: and Southeast Asia's prospects in the decades ahead. It was
Speaker 1: a riveting discussion and again, points remain as valid then
Speaker 1: as they are today.
Speaker 1: Our second most talked about guest is Rara Rajan, professor
Speaker 1: at University of Chicago. He joined us in the early
Speaker 1: days of the pandemic on episode eight. And then he
Speaker 1: kindly came by to mark episode 100 last month. Very
Speaker 1: few thinkers in my view have been as prescient as
Speaker 1: Doctor Rajan in capturing the fault lines of modern finance.
Speaker 1: It was a privilege to have him on the show.
Speaker 1: We began with the here and now duration mismatch risk
Speaker 1: causing a rise in vulnerability among banks and non bank
Speaker 1: financial institutions in the US. Is this an inevitable result
Speaker 1: of the exceptional monetary accommodation of the past decade and
Speaker 1: a half? Um And then, which then led to some
Speaker 1: degree of
Speaker 1: Hinton Rau says, yes. Uh there were other questions that
Speaker 1: we discussed. Uh why haven't post G F C regulations
Speaker 1: stemmed such risks from materializing? What are the indicators to
Speaker 1: watch going forward and what can policymakers do at this point?
Speaker 1: What about the entire edifice of inflation targeting and where
Speaker 1: do the emerging market economies fit into all this?
Speaker 1: While this discussion focused largely on financial market stress and
Speaker 1: central uh banking. Uh Professor Rajan also weighed in on
Speaker 1: issues very close to his heart, the issue of sovereign
Speaker 1: debt restructuring that is badly needed for a number of
Speaker 1: developing countries with critical roles to be played by credit,
Speaker 1: credit nations and multilateral organizations.
Speaker 1: Finally, from the number one episode of cope time by
Speaker 1: a wide margin as episode 52 Hira Mahala, veteran expert
Speaker 1: on geopolitics and presently distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute.
Speaker 1: Talked about the urgent need for constructive engagement with China
Speaker 1: to avoid the risk of a lose lose outcome from
Speaker 1: the world.
Speaker 1: A pragmatic trade of oriented strategy to deal with China
Speaker 1: would help achieve peace and prosperity for all while ideologically
Speaker 1: driven confrontations would only keep escalating matters in Professor Mei's view,
Speaker 1: as always aide uh Mr Alwani Fan, global history and
Speaker 1: geography to draw in lessons for policymakers and non-government observers alike.
Speaker 1: Check out the video of this interaction on youtube and
Speaker 1: the nearly 900 comments uh that are at at at
Speaker 1: the bottom. There are some of those comments are really something.
Speaker 1: So there you have it. Our top 10 looking forward
Speaker 1: to sharing many such moments with you in the coming days.
Speaker 1: Coby time is for information only does not represent any
Speaker 1: trade recommendation. All 101 episodes of Coby Time are available
Speaker 1: on youtube and on all major podcast platforms including Apple
Speaker 1: Google and Spotify. As for our research publications, webinars and
Speaker 1: live streams, you can find them all by Googling the
Speaker 1: D BS research library. A few thanks to be made.
Speaker 1: Uh Martin Tay. He,
Speaker 1: he was there with me from the very beginning and
Speaker 1: helped set up the whole framework and ran the podcast
Speaker 1: as a producer for a good couple of years. Ken
Speaker 1: Delbridge from Spice Studios is my current producer. Absolutely outstanding
Speaker 1: and reliable Daisy Sherma and Violet Lee from D V
Speaker 1: S group. Research, provide post editorial and publication support and
Speaker 1: this podcast would go, would go nowhere without them either. So,
Speaker 1: thanks to all of them and thanks to you, our
Speaker 1: listeners have a great day. Keep listening to Kobe time.