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Speaker 1: Welcome to CPI Time, a podcast series on Markets and

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Speaker 1: Economies from DVS Group Research. I'm the chief economist. Welcoming

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Speaker 1: you to our 119th episode. Today, we will look at

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Speaker 1: various geo economic and political risks at play. Angela Mancini

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Speaker 1: is partner and head of Geopolitical risk analysis Practice for

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Speaker 1: Asia Pacific at control risk.

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Speaker 1: It's based in Singapore and her team advises governments and

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Speaker 1: private organizations on how their strategies might be exposed to

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Speaker 1: political regulatory and reputation risks. Angela Mancini. Welcome back to

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Speaker 1: COVID Time.

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Speaker 2: Great. It's great to be here. Thanks for having me back.

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Speaker 1: Uh Angela, you were with us in the very early

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Speaker 1: days of COVID time. Way back in March 2020. Now,

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Speaker 1: four years have gone by. But I think it's kind

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Speaker 1: of instruct you to see what we talked about in

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Speaker 1: that podcast.

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Speaker 1: Uh Well, let's see, we covered political turmoil in Indonesia

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Speaker 1: and Malaysia. We talked about China us relationship in light

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Speaker 1: of the pandemic that was about to engulf us at

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Speaker 1: that point. I think at that point, it was mostly

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Speaker 1: China and risks for the rest of the world.

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Speaker 1: And boy, boy, how things panned out the following months.

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Speaker 1: And then we also talked about, oh gosh, uh us

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Speaker 1: election outlook. So I think we need to reprise all

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Speaker 1: of those topics and some more today. Uh Let's start

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Speaker 1: with Indonesia where we just have a landmark election. So

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Speaker 1: what's your take on the election to get the conversation going?

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So it's an interesting one, as we say, control risk.

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Speaker 2: It was unexpected but pretty easily explained, right? So, so

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Speaker 2: as we know, Prabowo, Subianto got 58% of the vote

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Speaker 2: avoided a runoff election. Um Many thought there might be

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Speaker 2: a runoff. Clearly, it's good for business uh predictability and

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Speaker 2: policy continuity that there's not a runoff. We can just

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Speaker 2: kind of get through that potentially people were got a

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Speaker 2: long election season. A lot of ups and downs were

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Speaker 2: past all that.

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Speaker 2: I think the interesting thing here with that election is

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Speaker 2: that you really did see Jokowi moving behind the scenes

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Speaker 2: to help Prabowo and his son who's obviously, you know, Gibron,

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Speaker 2: the vice presidential candidate now winner um

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Speaker 2: in that election. So if you look at the Jacoby legacy,

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Speaker 2: you know, he came in as a reformer man of

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Speaker 2: the people, he still has 80% or so, a little

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Speaker 2: bit less popularity rating. He's arguably the most popular leader

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Speaker 2: in the world, which is just, you know, astonishing and

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Speaker 2: he really did deliver on a lot of his promises

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Speaker 2: around

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Speaker 2: infrastructure and helping develop, you know, uh the lives of

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Speaker 2: the Indonesian people in a better way, socio-economic development, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: And so, but he's now moved right? And, and I

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Speaker 2: think as you look at his participation in the election

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Speaker 2: kind of helping a little bit behind the scenes to

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Speaker 2: put the finger on the scales a bit. He's moved

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Speaker 2: from that man of the people reformer mode into more

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Speaker 2: legacy building.

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Speaker 2: And so I mentioned that because I think it's important

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Speaker 2: to note he did have a role behind the election

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Speaker 2: and the election outcome which now for right or wrong

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Speaker 2: puts us where we are. And then we can have

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Speaker 2: a conversation about where we think Prabowo will take Indonesia.

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Speaker 2: But

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Speaker 2: it is a bit of a turning point for Indonesia

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Speaker 2: because you know, it is gonna be all new stakeholders

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Speaker 2: for business, all new people in cabinet. Um no more

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Speaker 2: la pa and behind the scenes as the as the gatekeeper.

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Speaker 2: So it is really a new day for investors in Indonesia.

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Speaker 1: So you mentioned the word Jokowi's legacy a couple of times,

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Speaker 1: I want to sort of think in terms of his predecessor.

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Speaker 1: So Svy was also president for 10 years. Uh He

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Speaker 1: sort of faded away although he tried through familial routes

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Speaker 1: as well as well to remain relevant. Uh But Jokowi

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Speaker 1: is clearly a little more successful in getting his son

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Speaker 1: placed in the vice president's office. Now, is that a

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Speaker 1: natural alliance for Jokowi and his son?

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Speaker 2: Uh not really on the face of it. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Jacoby actually, as you know, um as some say, betrayed

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Speaker 2: his party PD IP to actually support. So he did not,

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Speaker 2: you know, promote the PD IP candidate, he promoted POW instead.

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Speaker 2: So it, but I think what he was keen to

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Speaker 2: do if he could is support someone who would continue

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Speaker 2: his own legacy. So Jokowi clearly is,

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Speaker 2: has been quite successful with infrastructure, right? Obviously, all the,

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Speaker 2: you know, the Jakarta subway and the roads and the

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Speaker 2: airports and the ports and everything. And of course, the

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Speaker 2: big question is, you know, how far will we go

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Speaker 2: with actually moving the capital city from Jakarta to um

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Speaker 2: East Kalimantan to New Sentara? And Prabowo has said he would,

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Speaker 2: you know, keep pursuing that. So I think Joo is

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Speaker 2: keen to keep that legacy going. And

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Speaker 2: I would imagine Mr Prabowo is someone who could, you know, help,

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Speaker 2: help with that forward. But all to say, I mean

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Speaker 2: Prabowo in his own right is popular. I mean, he

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Speaker 2: is uh as our analyst and controllers said, you know,

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Speaker 2: he's uh he is representing the Indonesian of today even

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Speaker 2: if some may not like that. I mean, we know

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Speaker 2: he said that he

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Speaker 2: rights allegations. He's had, you know, he is a very

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Speaker 2: controversial figure, but indeed, he got a lot of votes.

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Speaker 2: And what we're expecting to see is you've got especially

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Speaker 2: a young Indonesian population that wants someone strong to have

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Speaker 2: Indonesia rising.

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Speaker 2: They want to go from the 16th largest economy to

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Speaker 2: maybe top 10, maybe top six. They want to be

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Speaker 2: prominent on the world stage and someone like provoke is,

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Speaker 2: you know, we're expecting to see you really active on

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Speaker 2: the international stage, be really vocal and comfortably. So in

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Speaker 2: all these international Fora and

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Speaker 2: really kind of uh championing what Indonesia wants to do

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Speaker 2: and navigating, of course, that tight balance between the US

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Speaker 2: and China. And so it's not to say that Jokowi

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Speaker 2: kind of entirely swung the election. Prabowo had a lot

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Speaker 2: that the voters I think were, were really looking for

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And you know, it's funny, despite hosting the G

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Speaker 1: 20 getting significant profile in the world stage, I never

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Speaker 1: felt that Jokowi was

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Speaker 1: very much, you know, in his elements when it came

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Speaker 1: to international diplomacy and representing Indonesia in a large forum.

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Speaker 1: No doubt Prabowo, given his military background and decades of

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Speaker 1: public speaking, he is way more comfortable in that. Uh

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Speaker 1: whether he ends up saying things that will always help

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Speaker 1: Indonesia remains to be seen. I do worry a little

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Speaker 1: bit Angela, that the way we've seen the Philippines where

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Speaker 1: you do see these of

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Speaker 1: uh politics of convenience where you step away from the presidency,

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Speaker 1: but you get somebody from your side to be the

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Speaker 1: vice president and that hasn't quite worked out very well

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Speaker 1: in Philippines. Uh Let's let's hope and wish Indonesia the

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Speaker 1: best of luck in that unlikely alliance, uh things to

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Speaker 1: work out pretty well. Um You mentioned

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Speaker 1: Jokowi being, you know, sort of centered around infrastructure projects

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Speaker 1: including this mega project of moving the capital. The general

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Speaker 1: impression to me is that these things are changing things

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Speaker 1: on the margin, but we need deeper reforms and it

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Speaker 1: is not like, you know, Indonesia's decade by proxy. There

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Speaker 1: are many other countries in the region who are competing

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Speaker 1: for

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Speaker 1: with the same investment dollars. And Indonesia needs to be

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Speaker 1: a far more attractive, predictable, transparent destination for business capital.

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Speaker 1: What do you hear from your clients with respect to

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Speaker 1: their attitude to Indonesia? Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think you're, you're really hitting the nail on the head

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Speaker 2: because with the presidency, what we're expecting is again, unlike

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Speaker 2: Ji who came in, didn't, wasn't a policy

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Speaker 2: petition, didn't really know how the political system worked, had

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Speaker 2: to rely on a lot of other people. Um In

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Speaker 2: the cabinet had some early missteps and policy, you know,

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Speaker 2: lack of policy continuity. We will see the opposite with Prabowo.

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Speaker 2: He knows what he's doing. He's tied into four out

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Speaker 2: of the five main circles of importance within Indonesia, business politics, military,

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Speaker 2: et cetera academia.

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Speaker 2: So what we'll expect to see is policy continuity of

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Speaker 2: the gate. So from a business perspective, what our clients

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Speaker 2: say is they're looking forward to a pro business, business

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Speaker 2: policy continuity candidate. The trick though is we expect that

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Speaker 2: he's going to be the, the team around him is

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Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit more oligarchic. So it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be a lot of people. He knows a lot of

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Speaker 2: tycoons in power in the cabinet, he'll run the cabinet

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Speaker 2: probably like a CEO would do. Um

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Speaker 2: So what does that mean? Then for business, if your

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Speaker 2: interests are aligned with that group, then that's great. If

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Speaker 2: they're not, or if your local partner falls out, let's

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Speaker 2: even say your local partners in the PD IP, which

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Speaker 2: has of course been in, in, you know, um in power.

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Speaker 2: But if somehow they fall afoul of what Prabowo's very

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Speaker 2: strong interests are, then might you get swept up and

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Speaker 2: make you get left behind, right? So it could be

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Speaker 2: swept up an anti corruption campaign or could just be

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Speaker 2: left behind out of, you know, some of the, some

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Speaker 2: of the good projects. So as we know, it is

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Speaker 2: the main thing our clients always worry about with Indonesia

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Speaker 2: in addition to infrastructure issues is corruption. And so what

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Speaker 2: we're expecting to see now with Prabowo and power is most,

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Speaker 2: everyone's gonna have to be working with politically exposed people,

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Speaker 2: most likely either through cabinet ministries and projects, local partners.

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Speaker 2: The trick is gonna be

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Speaker 2: making sure as a let's say you're a foreign investor,

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Speaker 2: you've really got that stakeholder map down, you've really done

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Speaker 2: your due diligence. There are good people to work with.

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Speaker 2: I'm not at all saying that everyone's corrupt and it's

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Speaker 2: not possible to find good projects, but it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: really important to make sure that um as a business,

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Speaker 2: you're really understanding what that landscape is for your particular project.

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Speaker 2: And there's areas of opportunity again, if you can hit

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Speaker 2: that sweet spot where you're actually hitting into infrastructure and

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Speaker 2: some of the green energy issues

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Speaker 2: there, that would be great. But um if you weren't

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Speaker 2: foul of it, then that's gonna be an

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Speaker 1: issue.

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Speaker 1: You also briefly mentioned the balancing act between China and

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Speaker 1: the US, which will become a running refrain through the

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Speaker 1: course of this podcast. Uh How is Indonesia dealing with

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Speaker 1: this uh great power rivalry?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting because unlike Malaysia or Vietnam, who are

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Speaker 2: more squarely in the US, Camp Indonesia is probably one

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Speaker 2: of the um countries in ASEAN that does the most

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Speaker 2: in terms of actually trying to have a bit of

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Speaker 2: a balance. I mean, obviously you have strong ties with

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Speaker 2: the US from a military point of view. But the

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Speaker 2: issue obviously with Indonesia, as we know is, it's still

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Speaker 2: a resource producing country. Mainly nickel is a big issue

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Speaker 2: right now. Um And it's trying to move up the

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Speaker 2: value chain with a lot of what it's doing and

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Speaker 2: also move into things like um ecommerce and, and, you know,

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Speaker 2: things that aren't just pulling things out of the ground.

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Speaker 2: Um But where the US and the West

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Speaker 2: may have concerns getting into business and doing some projects

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Speaker 2: with Indonesia as it relates to, let's say ESG concerns

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Speaker 2: or other regulatory concerns. China is very willing to step in.

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Speaker 2: So from an economic point of view, you see China

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Speaker 2: very willing and able and in fact very

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Speaker 2: aggressively so going to develop business within in Indonesia and

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Speaker 2: Indonesia is happy about that. I mean, they, they need

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Speaker 2: the investment if they can't get it from the west

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Speaker 2: or it's coming too slow from the West, they're very

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Speaker 2: um welcoming to Chinese investment. So

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Speaker 2: it is a balancing act. I think with Prabowo in power,

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Speaker 2: he will be certainly more vocal. He's also as, you know,

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Speaker 2: uh prone to some gaffes uh like the, you know,

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Speaker 2: us President Biden, I mean, the comment he made at

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Speaker 2: the Shangri la dialogue uh last year or so about,

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Speaker 2: you know, the peace plan for Russia, Ukraine shows that

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Speaker 2: he can indeed have some verbal gaffe. So, you know,

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Speaker 2: hopefully we don't see something there that's too significant. But

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Speaker 2: in some, I think he'll do um

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Speaker 2: the same job that Indonesia has been doing really balancing

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Speaker 2: the US and China. But in a strong way, I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's Indonesia rising, Indonesia's voice on the world stage. Indonesia saying,

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Speaker 2: you know, we're, we're here and we've got things to

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Speaker 2: offer and you need to kind of play by our rules.

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Speaker 2: I think the trick for Indonesia is that there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of other markets out there where people can go

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Speaker 2: and investment doesn't have to stay in Indonesia. There's a

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Speaker 2: lot of other options uh on the horizon as well.

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Speaker 1: Right, Angela, a classic example would be getting the EV

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Speaker 1: investment and the battery investment. Yes, from Panasonic to Tesla,

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Speaker 1: there are a bunch of countries that are so Western

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Speaker 1: Light who probably will end up investing in Indonesia. But

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Speaker 1: Byd may equally offer tremendous terms and opportunities for Indonesia

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Speaker 1: if they choose to invest in and for a country

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Speaker 1: to your point of large population, young population, aspirational,

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Speaker 1: they I'm sure would like to drive good looking electric cars.

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Speaker 1: You know, I have a feeling that the Chinese will

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Speaker 1: really give Western investors in that area massive run for

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Speaker 1: their money. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's right, especially since also in the ev market, as

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Speaker 2: we know, the Chinese have a great product and it's

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Speaker 2: at a great price. Um and you see, you know,

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Speaker 2: you see these cars also in Singapore and and elsewhere and,

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Speaker 2: and that's something you know, we can, you know, get

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Speaker 2: into Malaysia as well, but Malaysia is also looking at

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Speaker 2: ev production and and um

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Speaker 2: at scale. And I think, you know, the the challenge

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Speaker 2: when we think about us, China is there's the geopolitics

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Speaker 2: of it, but then there's a business aspect of it.

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Speaker 2: And China we do need to recognize has some products

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Speaker 2: that are really strong and they're again priced efficiently and

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Speaker 2: they're willing to work with governments across ASEAN. So it's

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Speaker 2: not simply just a geopolitical consideration. It's an economic consideration

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Speaker 2: and they do actually bring quite a lot to the table.

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Speaker 1: Right. I suppose also the fact that Indonesia doesn't have

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Speaker 1: any territorial dispute with China, as opposed to say, Vietnam

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Speaker 1: or Philippines probably make it easier for them to navigate this.

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Speaker 1: But thanks for bringing the Malaysian angle in. That's exactly

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Speaker 1: where I wanted to take this conversation to work. Um

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Speaker 1: So they have had a remarkably stable one year. I

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Speaker 1: thought when I got elected that it was going to

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Speaker 1: be a lot of volatility. Uh It's turned out to

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Speaker 1: be sort of, ok, so far.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been so we, you know, we recently had

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Speaker 2: the one year anniversary. It's been more stable. Yeah, than

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Speaker 2: we might think certainly from a political perspective. So that's good.

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Speaker 2: I think the challenge is as, you know, as you

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Speaker 2: follow this closely is on the economic side, right? The ring,

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Speaker 2: it is at a 26 year low and there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of pressures economically. I mean, if you took the

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Speaker 2: US fed out of the picture, so clearly, Malaysia is

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Speaker 2: suffering from the, the high um US rates in the

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Speaker 2: capital

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Speaker 2: looking for other options that are more lucrative than being

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Speaker 2: investing in Malaysia at this point. But so if you

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Speaker 2: took that out, it might be a slightly different picture,

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Speaker 2: but there is a lot of economic anxiety. So on

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Speaker 2: the political side, it's been fairly stable, on the economic

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Speaker 2: side there's anxiety around inflation cost of living. Um Obviously,

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Speaker 2: the the ring of weakness. I think the other thing

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Speaker 2: that we see clients tracking more seriously now than ever

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Speaker 2: is the rise of Islamic policies as well in Malaysia.

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Speaker 2: So as you know, there's been uh under Anwar, there's

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Speaker 2: been um some pro Malay um Islamic policies around things

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Speaker 2: like Islamic education in schools and Sharia law and things

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Speaker 2: like that that are moving through the legislative process or being,

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Speaker 2: being um put out into the political discourse. It and

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Speaker 2: also you recall he closed off the ports to Israeli

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Speaker 2: flag ships.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of solidarity with the horrible conflict in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Um But having said that that also makes Western investors nervous,

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Speaker 2: particularly if there's a risk of boycotting American or Western

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Speaker 2: brands which we've seen. And some of our clients in

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Speaker 2: that space, whether they're American brands or European brands have

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Speaker 2: quietly said that whether or not there's an an over

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Speaker 2: caught, they're getting a lot of pressure from their staff

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Speaker 2: or their staff is getting pressure from their community about

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Speaker 2: why would you be working for, you know, a big

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Speaker 2: Western company that's not in solidarity right now with the

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Speaker 2: Palestinians and what's happening. So there's a lot of other

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Speaker 2: things going on in addition to just the pure economic

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Speaker 2: situation as well.

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Speaker 1: But would you give Anwar A B plus or even

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Speaker 1: an A minus for governing through a rather tenuous coalition?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would actually, I think that's right. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think you're right. I, I'm looking a little bit

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Speaker 2: at the challenges but if you take a step back

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Speaker 2: considering where Malaysia has been in the past several years

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Speaker 2: with one M DB. And, um, no, and you know,

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Speaker 2: everything else that they've gone through, I do think it

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Speaker 2: is uniquely

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Speaker 2: right now, which I think that has been opening the

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Speaker 2: door as you've seen to things like um conversations about,

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Speaker 2: can we reopen the high speed rail project potentially between

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Speaker 2: Malaysia and Singapore? And certainly the Johor Baru Singapore um

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Speaker 2: economic Zone is,

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Speaker 2: you know, something that looks like it's going to be

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Speaker 2: moving forward. So I don't know that those would be

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Speaker 2: moving forward quite as rapidly as they would if we

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Speaker 2: still had all the political mess in Malaysia. Because obviously,

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Speaker 2: first and foremost, you need political stability before you can

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Speaker 2: get these investments going. And Malaysia has always suffered from

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Speaker 2: being in a neighborhood where, you know, in in principle,

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Speaker 2: they're always so good on paper, right? It's such a

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Speaker 2: good investment destination on paper. But when you do have

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Speaker 2: other opportunities from Vietnam to Thailand, to Indonesia, Philippines,

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Speaker 2: um we have a lot of our clients say those

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Speaker 2: other markets look better because just policies more stable, you know,

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Speaker 2: who the ministers are, you kind of know what the

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Speaker 2: challenges are gonna be and you can predict and, and

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Speaker 2: plan around those and that's been harder in the past

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Speaker 2: years of Malaysia. So in some, I do think the

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Speaker 2: stability has been a big win.

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Speaker 1: So this is a critical issue to sort of consider Angela.

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Speaker 1: So you're right that economically there's a lot of stress

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Speaker 1: on foreign policy. Certainly Anwar is playing some of a

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Speaker 1: high risk game. I mean, there are other Muslim majority

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Speaker 1: countries in the region, Indonesia and then you go to

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Speaker 1: South Asia, there's countries like Bangladesh who are not making

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Speaker 1: as big a deal, even if there is a lot of,

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Speaker 1: you know,

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Speaker 1: dissonance at the grassroots level about what's happening in the

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Speaker 1: Middle East. But Malaysia has chosen to sort of, you know,

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Speaker 1: make it a lightning rod which complicates the picture. But

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Speaker 1: at the same time, there seems to be a lot

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Speaker 1: of interest. So I want to talk about the FD

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Speaker 1: I related tech in a minute. But um before we

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Speaker 1: talk about foreign investment, I want you to tell me

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Speaker 1: a little bit about domestically on the digital economy side.

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Speaker 1: Uh are the Malaysians doing the kinds of things that

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Speaker 1: make them look like a digital savvy economy and mind you,

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Speaker 1: they were ahead of the curve in the seventies. It

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Speaker 1: was Penang that was building electronics before anybody else. And

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Speaker 1: it was in the nineties when Anwar was Mahathir's second

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Speaker 1: left hand man was talking about a multimedia super corridor.

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Speaker 1: It sort of faded away but is it making a comeback?

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Speaker 2: It is, it, it's interesting that you mentioned about Penang,

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Speaker 2: I was just at a conference uh last week in

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Speaker 2: Istanbul where um there was someone there who was a

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Speaker 2: senior in the semiconductor space in Taiwan who made that

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Speaker 2: exact point that a lot of the initial tech and,

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Speaker 2: and talent

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Speaker 2: was, you know, incubated in Penang. So it's interesting that

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Speaker 2: you raise that. But yeah, so what we're seeing on

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Speaker 2: the digital space in Malaysia, which is quite interesting is

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Speaker 2: there's a big push to move all of the government

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Speaker 2: operations into the cloud. So that, I mean, so there's

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Speaker 2: the private sector development.

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Speaker 2: But then I think the government moving up to the

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Speaker 2: cloud is significant. Why is that? Because it's obviously bringing

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Speaker 2: in a lot of cloud providers, Google just signed a

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Speaker 2: massive recently a massive uh agreement with Malaysian government on that.

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Speaker 2: But then it's also allowing for private sector investment opportunity

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Speaker 2: of all that, you know, ecosystem around it and the

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Speaker 2: infrastructure around it. So we're doing a lot of work

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Speaker 2: with clients on data centers

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Speaker 2: which you know, a lot of countries want data centers

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Speaker 2: and a lot of companies want to build data centers.

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Speaker 2: And Malaysia is really a good place for that because

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Speaker 2: it has it's a cheaper place, it has the land access,

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Speaker 2: it has better access to renewable energy and and uh

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Speaker 2: water where unlike let's say Singapore because you need water

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Speaker 2: to cool the daily data centers.

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Speaker 2: So there's all the infrastructure opportunity around that. And then

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Speaker 2: at the same time, what they're doing is they're shoring

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Speaker 2: up the cybersecurity risk. So obviously, as they go into

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Speaker 2: the cloud, there's big risk of cybersecurity breaches. And so

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Speaker 2: they're putting into place a new cybersecurity law and then

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Speaker 2: opening the door to a lot of cybersecurity providers to

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Speaker 2: come in

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Speaker 2: and really support the government. But also, again, all the

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Speaker 2: private sector that's also moving up to the cloud and,

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Speaker 2: and they're also trying to become more of AAA bigger

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Speaker 2: weight in ecommerce and fintech as well. So I think

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Speaker 2: that's all heading in the right direction from um in

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Speaker 2: an innovation point of view. And then again, just opening

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Speaker 2: all that opportunity for, for all the infrastructure behind it

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 1: This is a fascinating bifurcation on the broad macro side.

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Speaker 1: There seems to be a lot of tension on the

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Speaker 1: governance side. There seems to be some tension but underlying

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Speaker 1: infrastructure wise, things that should make investors really, really interested

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Speaker 1: in Malaysia, things seem to be going in the right direction.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about foreign investment. So you were at

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Speaker 1: this conference in Penang, what are you hearing? I mean,

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Speaker 1: people really want to put billions of dollars in building

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Speaker 1: semiconductor plants again in Malaysia.

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Speaker 2: So uh not quite that far. And, and the, so

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Speaker 2: the conference I was at was actually interesting because it

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Speaker 2: was a lot of global investors and regulators. Um actually

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Speaker 2: in in Turkey looking at so not just Southeast Asia

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Speaker 2: and Asia in general, but globally. And so I think

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Speaker 2: the issues there are,

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Speaker 2: I don't know that there's a lot of semiconductor plants

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Speaker 2: that are going to be necessarily built in Malaysia. I

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Speaker 2: know that's, that's an area that they're trying to move

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Speaker 2: up the value chain if you take a step back.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Malaysia historically has been known, of course for

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Speaker 2: electronic manufacturing in palm oil as well. right? So, but with, again,

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Speaker 2: with all the, and this is true across Southeast Asia

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Speaker 2: more broadly, but with all the ESG concerns and climate

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Speaker 2: change concerns, trying to really make sure they're moving further

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Speaker 2: towards many

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Speaker 2: factoring sector and also up the value chain of that.

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Speaker 2: So in the past, Malaysia, you're right, um is looking

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Speaker 2: at moving up the value chain with semiconductors, they've done

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Speaker 2: a lot of testing and assembly. In the past, I

435
00:21:47,074 --> 00:21:49,675
Speaker 2: think the really interesting thing to look at is can

436
00:21:49,685 --> 00:21:51,675
Speaker 2: they compete and they're looking at it, can they compete

437
00:21:51,685 --> 00:21:55,494
Speaker 2: with Japan and South Korea? Um with also thinking about

438
00:21:55,505 --> 00:21:58,015
Speaker 2: design and things that aren't just assembly and testing.

439
00:21:58,739 --> 00:22:01,079
Speaker 2: But then geopolitically that gets a little bit tricky because

440
00:22:01,089 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 2: I think if they're able to do that, the US

441
00:22:03,890 --> 00:22:07,189
Speaker 2: of course, will, I'm sure be happy to see another

442
00:22:07,199 --> 00:22:10,540
Speaker 2: country that's, you know, us friendly, that would be a

443
00:22:10,550 --> 00:22:13,099
Speaker 2: critical note in the supply chain for semiconductors. But I

444
00:22:13,109 --> 00:22:15,530
Speaker 2: think the challenge is if they get too good then

445
00:22:15,540 --> 00:22:17,400
Speaker 2: are they, you know, are they seen as a competitor

446
00:22:17,410 --> 00:22:22,079
Speaker 2: in that space? So again, I, I don't see um

447
00:22:22,420 --> 00:22:26,180
Speaker 2: many, many investors racing into Malaysia. Certainly they are on

448
00:22:26,189 --> 00:22:28,030
Speaker 2: the data center side. But in terms of the, you know,

449
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 2: the semiconductor production side, but I do think that that's

450
00:22:31,810 --> 00:22:35,389
Speaker 2: a potential growing area. But one again that Malaysia will

451
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,290
Speaker 2: just have to be a little bit careful with, from

452
00:22:37,300 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 2: a geopolitical perspective. But realistically, I don't expect that they

453
00:22:40,810 --> 00:22:43,300
Speaker 2: would be so successful in the near term that that

454
00:22:43,310 --> 00:22:46,540
Speaker 2: would be um really an acute issue for them.

455
00:22:47,380 --> 00:22:50,770
Speaker 1: Now earlier, you mentioned two things that bring in Singapore.

456
00:22:50,780 --> 00:22:53,140
Speaker 1: One is this, you know, renewed talk about the high

457
00:22:53,150 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 1: speed link between K and Singapore and then also this

458
00:22:57,489 --> 00:23:03,339
Speaker 1: export processing zone uh deal that Johor and Singapore the

459
00:23:03,349 --> 00:23:07,910
Speaker 1: mou was signed in January of this year. Um So Malaysia,

460
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,649
Speaker 1: Singapore Deep Sim Bio says there's a lot of Malaysian

461
00:23:11,660 --> 00:23:14,510
Speaker 1: talent embedded in the Singapore economy. There's a lot of

462
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,479
Speaker 1: supplies for Singapore that come from Malaysia.

463
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,949
Speaker 1: Uh is this relationship in a, in a good spot

464
00:23:19,959 --> 00:23:20,379
Speaker 1: right now?

465
00:23:20,869 --> 00:23:23,660
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it is, especially with um the new

466
00:23:23,670 --> 00:23:25,619
Speaker 2: king who's the sultan of Johor is, you know, I

467
00:23:25,630 --> 00:23:29,209
Speaker 2: think really solidifies that and he has a very specific

468
00:23:29,219 --> 00:23:32,179
Speaker 2: interest in really in, in, in as he's, you know,

469
00:23:32,189 --> 00:23:35,750
Speaker 2: taking power in early days trying to solidify that relationship.

470
00:23:35,810 --> 00:23:37,810
Speaker 2: I think it's a great opportunity. I mean, if you

471
00:23:37,819 --> 00:23:40,959
Speaker 2: think about the ability, if there's a way to get,

472
00:23:41,310 --> 00:23:44,189
Speaker 2: you know, even just transport of people who so many

473
00:23:44,199 --> 00:23:46,869
Speaker 2: come across every day to work, you know, on both sides,

474
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,438
Speaker 2: if you can get that transport of people

475
00:23:50,140 --> 00:23:53,510
Speaker 2: in an down in an easier way, that's a massive

476
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,540
Speaker 2: win in terms of efficiency, in terms of cost, in

477
00:23:56,550 --> 00:23:59,949
Speaker 2: terms of the flexibility of workers being able to live

478
00:23:59,959 --> 00:24:02,729
Speaker 2: on both sides and, and the just the ability of

479
00:24:02,739 --> 00:24:05,349
Speaker 2: talent to come from Malaysia into Singapore. As we saw

480
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 2: during COVID, one of my clients works in the tech

481
00:24:08,050 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 2: space here in Singapore,

482
00:24:09,790 --> 00:24:11,849
Speaker 2: they were really pressed because when the border closed, they

483
00:24:11,859 --> 00:24:15,500
Speaker 2: hadn't quite appreciated just how many high highly skilled workers

484
00:24:15,510 --> 00:24:17,910
Speaker 2: they were bringing in daily from Malaysia, you know, into

485
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,810
Speaker 2: Singapore to work and then go back so that alone

486
00:24:20,819 --> 00:24:23,609
Speaker 2: would be significant. But then if you think about this

487
00:24:23,619 --> 00:24:25,709
Speaker 2: uh investment zone that they're talking about that's going to

488
00:24:25,719 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 2: have potentially special tax incentives and special infrastructure and customs

489
00:24:30,619 --> 00:24:31,650
Speaker 2: clearing and whatnot

490
00:24:32,035 --> 00:24:34,704
Speaker 2: it. That and, and of course, you know, focus on green,

491
00:24:34,785 --> 00:24:37,994
Speaker 2: green energy that I think can be a real highlight

492
00:24:38,005 --> 00:24:41,425
Speaker 2: for both countries and certainly um can serve as a

493
00:24:41,435 --> 00:24:44,614
Speaker 2: great gateway for Singapore to further, then invest into Malaysia

494
00:24:44,625 --> 00:24:48,004
Speaker 2: and just keep, you know, keep things much more open

495
00:24:48,015 --> 00:24:50,834
Speaker 2: than they've been before. I think there can be nothing but,

496
00:24:50,844 --> 00:24:53,545
Speaker 2: you know, pretty strong economic and also social benefits as well.

497
00:24:54,260 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 1: I totally agree. And you know, this is not a

498
00:24:56,170 --> 00:25:00,540
Speaker 1: unique situation. We see this all over Europe, Switzerland, high

499
00:25:00,550 --> 00:25:04,300
Speaker 1: cost jurisdiction, but neighboring Germany France people go back and forth,

500
00:25:04,310 --> 00:25:07,729
Speaker 1: do groceries, they arbitrage and it turned out to be

501
00:25:07,739 --> 00:25:09,790
Speaker 1: a win, win for Switzerland, Germany and France. So in

502
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:10,949
Speaker 1: this particular case, also,

503
00:25:11,180 --> 00:25:14,020
Speaker 1: despite the sort of per capita income differential, I think

504
00:25:14,030 --> 00:25:16,500
Speaker 1: there's a lot of some biases that can be beneficial

505
00:25:16,510 --> 00:25:19,290
Speaker 1: to your point due to the friction is just that

506
00:25:19,300 --> 00:25:21,839
Speaker 1: could be used in terms of movement of labor. Uh

507
00:25:21,849 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 1: It would help both sides substantially. So, yeah, let's cross

508
00:25:25,130 --> 00:25:26,989
Speaker 1: our fingers and hope that, you know, we can sort of,

509
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:28,989
Speaker 1: you know, go across the border friction free in the

510
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,530
Speaker 1: coming years. Uh OK. Speaking of Singapore, uh now we've

511
00:25:32,540 --> 00:25:34,819
Speaker 1: had a few landmark elections in the region. Now, here's

512
00:25:34,829 --> 00:25:37,930
Speaker 1: one more coming up next year. Big changing of the Guard.

513
00:25:37,939 --> 00:25:39,859
Speaker 1: Uh What's your sense of the 2020

514
00:25:39,925 --> 00:25:41,864
Speaker 1: five Singapore elections? Yeah.

515
00:25:41,875 --> 00:25:45,145
Speaker 2: So certainly we expect the PAP to win. That's no surprise.

516
00:25:45,155 --> 00:25:47,785
Speaker 2: I think the question is just the margin. The, the

517
00:25:47,795 --> 00:25:50,814
Speaker 2: interesting thing about this election will be, I think the timing.

518
00:25:50,964 --> 00:25:54,655
Speaker 2: So as we know, they need to have the election

519
00:25:54,665 --> 00:25:59,264
Speaker 2: in 2025 and the 70th anniversary of the PAP will

520
00:25:59,275 --> 00:26:03,145
Speaker 2: be noted at the will, will be hitting that mark

521
00:26:03,155 --> 00:26:06,864
Speaker 2: this November at the convention that they'll hold. So I

522
00:26:06,875 --> 00:26:08,545
Speaker 2: think the question there will be

523
00:26:09,079 --> 00:26:12,189
Speaker 2: you know, at what point is the election called? Because

524
00:26:12,199 --> 00:26:14,180
Speaker 2: it doesn't have to be in 2025. It can be

525
00:26:14,189 --> 00:26:17,619
Speaker 2: earlier and some factors that are at play. You know,

526
00:26:17,630 --> 00:26:21,379
Speaker 2: one is, when does PM Lee want to step down

527
00:26:21,390 --> 00:26:24,979
Speaker 2: and pass, uh, the reins over to Lawrence Wong, is that,

528
00:26:25,150 --> 00:26:28,390
Speaker 2: you know, well, in advance of the November, uh, or

529
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,140
Speaker 2: maybe even in advance of National Day

530
00:26:30,829 --> 00:26:33,239
Speaker 2: in August, or is that advance in advance of the

531
00:26:33,250 --> 00:26:36,939
Speaker 2: party convention in November? And what does that look like? Um,

532
00:26:36,949 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 2: as you know, there's a big corruption case going on

533
00:26:39,209 --> 00:26:42,849
Speaker 2: right now in Singapore. Uh certainly, I think any political

534
00:26:42,859 --> 00:26:47,010
Speaker 2: party would want to see um ca a case like

535
00:26:47,020 --> 00:26:50,150
Speaker 2: that resolved before they hit an election. And last week,

536
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,530
Speaker 2: there were actually new charges, eight new charges actually put

537
00:26:52,540 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 2: out against the defendant, the ex Minister of Transport. So,

538
00:26:55,890 --> 00:26:59,430
Speaker 2: um I think that timing of that case may factor

539
00:26:59,439 --> 00:27:00,180
Speaker 2: in as well.

540
00:27:00,979 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 2: Uh But certainly there's no surprise in what we think

541
00:27:03,569 --> 00:27:05,819
Speaker 2: the election result is gonna be, I think it's just

542
00:27:05,829 --> 00:27:08,619
Speaker 2: gonna be a matter of how they want to manage

543
00:27:08,630 --> 00:27:11,438
Speaker 2: the timing of it. And we saw even, um in

544
00:27:11,449 --> 00:27:15,079
Speaker 2: the past couple of days they announced, uh you know, the, the,

545
00:27:15,089 --> 00:27:18,010
Speaker 2: the official that's gonna actually be running the election in

546
00:27:18,020 --> 00:27:20,719
Speaker 2: terms of making sure things are smooth and, and, and

547
00:27:20,729 --> 00:27:24,180
Speaker 2: moving forward properly with the, um you know, kind of

548
00:27:24,189 --> 00:27:27,599
Speaker 2: cleanliness and, and efficiency of the election as well as

549
00:27:27,609 --> 00:27:29,839
Speaker 2: uh saw a report overnight

550
00:27:30,339 --> 00:27:33,209
Speaker 2: that some public officials here in Singapore have already been

551
00:27:33,219 --> 00:27:36,300
Speaker 2: notified that they're going to be trained to be election

552
00:27:36,310 --> 00:27:38,540
Speaker 2: officials is how that works here. So the point is

553
00:27:38,550 --> 00:27:41,619
Speaker 2: the machinery is starting to move. Uh So we may

554
00:27:41,630 --> 00:27:44,390
Speaker 2: see something before November of 2025

555
00:27:45,380 --> 00:27:48,430
Speaker 1: when you were talking about Malaysia earlier, you very briefly

556
00:27:48,439 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 1: mentioned the cost of living issue. Now, Angela, that's an

557
00:27:50,770 --> 00:27:52,969
Speaker 1: issue all over the world, even the US elections. I

558
00:27:52,979 --> 00:27:56,079
Speaker 1: have a feeling this year would be deeply affected by

559
00:27:56,089 --> 00:27:58,349
Speaker 1: the sense that everything is much more expensive, but it's

560
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:00,390
Speaker 1: very much true in Singapore than in the last four

561
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: years since the pandemic. Uh cost of uh you know,

562
00:28:04,770 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 1: grocery shopping energy, everything is substantially higher. Do you see

563
00:28:08,770 --> 00:28:10,839
Speaker 1: that issue weighing in substantially in this election?

564
00:28:11,780 --> 00:28:14,599
Speaker 2: Well, I think, you know, my reaction that would be,

565
00:28:14,609 --> 00:28:16,419
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna weigh in in every election, the

566
00:28:16,430 --> 00:28:18,949
Speaker 2: reality if you take a step back and we see

567
00:28:18,959 --> 00:28:21,869
Speaker 2: this in all of our 38 global offices around the

568
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 2: world for control risk and all the clients. We work

569
00:28:23,930 --> 00:28:27,349
Speaker 2: with like 80% of the Fortune 500. Everyone is finding

570
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,410
Speaker 2: it harder to make that same dollar because PRE COVID,

571
00:28:30,420 --> 00:28:31,219
Speaker 2: as you know,

572
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,780
Speaker 2: his success was having a just in time supply chain,

573
00:28:34,790 --> 00:28:39,119
Speaker 2: very cost efficient that has now changed. So even inflationary

574
00:28:39,130 --> 00:28:44,260
Speaker 2: pressures for other reasons aside, Corporates need resilient supply chains again,

575
00:28:44,270 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 2: regardless of geopolitics and everything else. So that already is

576
00:28:47,810 --> 00:28:49,939
Speaker 2: adding cost and then you add in the geopolitical bits

577
00:28:49,949 --> 00:28:51,739
Speaker 2: and then, you know, we were talking just a minute

578
00:28:51,750 --> 00:28:54,750
Speaker 2: ago about Singapore Malaysia and that openness in terms of

579
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:55,449
Speaker 2: the border,

580
00:28:55,979 --> 00:28:58,439
Speaker 2: that's as you know, going backwards in a lot of locations, right?

581
00:28:58,449 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 2: If you just look at the US and Mexico and

582
00:29:00,010 --> 00:29:01,939
Speaker 2: the border states and what used to be able to

583
00:29:01,949 --> 00:29:04,569
Speaker 2: happen with workers being able to go across the border

584
00:29:04,579 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 2: and back and and the efficiency that has so all

585
00:29:06,930 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: to say

586
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,140
Speaker 2: the inflation issue and the cost issue is an issue

587
00:29:11,150 --> 00:29:13,689
Speaker 2: that's factoring in every election this year in a year

588
00:29:13,699 --> 00:29:15,660
Speaker 2: where we it is the year of the election, we

589
00:29:15,670 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 2: have so many globally. Um So certainly it has to factor.

590
00:29:20,010 --> 00:29:22,339
Speaker 2: I think Singapore has done a good job at trying

591
00:29:22,349 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 2: to get out front in front of that issue. Unlike

592
00:29:24,810 --> 00:29:27,140
Speaker 2: maybe some other countries really doing a lot in the

593
00:29:27,150 --> 00:29:30,459
Speaker 2: space of trying to ensure that lower income people are

594
00:29:30,469 --> 00:29:30,939
Speaker 2: getting

595
00:29:31,469 --> 00:29:34,229
Speaker 2: subsidies and support, really trying to attract the kind of

596
00:29:34,239 --> 00:29:37,859
Speaker 2: foreign investment that's going to create jobs. Um There's a

597
00:29:37,869 --> 00:29:40,219
Speaker 2: lot of as we know people and money coming in

598
00:29:40,229 --> 00:29:42,869
Speaker 2: from places like China and Hong Kong. So really thinking

599
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,770
Speaker 2: about how to smartly uh integrate that and make sure

600
00:29:46,780 --> 00:29:49,650
Speaker 2: that that's additive to the overall economy here. So not easy,

601
00:29:49,660 --> 00:29:52,069
Speaker 2: especially for a small country, I think they're doing a

602
00:29:52,079 --> 00:29:53,810
Speaker 2: pretty good job with it. So I, again, I just,

603
00:29:53,819 --> 00:29:56,689
Speaker 2: so in some I'd say it would factor in. But

604
00:29:56,699 --> 00:29:58,689
Speaker 2: um what I don't

605
00:29:59,290 --> 00:30:02,810
Speaker 2: see is that I, I don't see that they would

606
00:30:02,819 --> 00:30:05,430
Speaker 2: be seen as doing a poor job with it. Certainly

607
00:30:05,439 --> 00:30:08,030
Speaker 2: not comparative to uh to other countries.

608
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,250
Speaker 1: Right. I think there is a very important angle related

609
00:30:11,260 --> 00:30:14,849
Speaker 1: to marketing, that message, that to your point, there have

610
00:30:14,859 --> 00:30:18,089
Speaker 1: been all these community vouchers and cash transfers given to

611
00:30:18,099 --> 00:30:22,050
Speaker 1: the population to defra some of the higher cost of living,

612
00:30:22,060 --> 00:30:25,410
Speaker 1: including the higher GST. Uh My view is that between

613
00:30:25,420 --> 00:30:28,540
Speaker 1: now and the elections, how that message is marketed and,

614
00:30:28,550 --> 00:30:31,410
Speaker 1: and you would need some, you know, super smart uh

615
00:30:31,420 --> 00:30:34,479
Speaker 1: campaign people to do that. Uh I think it would

616
00:30:34,489 --> 00:30:36,219
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, decide whether people

617
00:30:37,020 --> 00:30:38,959
Speaker 1: take this in their strides or they feel that that

618
00:30:38,969 --> 00:30:42,660
Speaker 1: message about high cost of living being somewhat intolerable, needs

619
00:30:42,670 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 1: to be transferred in the voting booth. Uh I guess

620
00:30:45,770 --> 00:30:49,979
Speaker 1: time will tell um Angela, but in general, this seems

621
00:30:49,989 --> 00:30:53,979
Speaker 1: to be a good geo economic spot that Singapore is

622
00:30:53,989 --> 00:30:56,619
Speaker 1: in right now. I mean we talked about Malaysia balancing

623
00:30:56,630 --> 00:30:58,550
Speaker 1: China U si think Singapore is doing a pretty good

624
00:30:58,560 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: job of balancing that too.

625
00:31:00,430 --> 00:31:02,810
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that, I think and as you know,

626
00:31:02,819 --> 00:31:05,369
Speaker 2: as we know with Singapore, there's a few different elements

627
00:31:05,380 --> 00:31:09,010
Speaker 2: of that, right? There's obviously the security uh guarantees and

628
00:31:09,020 --> 00:31:12,260
Speaker 2: support they get from the US because of the security

629
00:31:12,270 --> 00:31:14,780
Speaker 2: component of it. And then there's the economic component. I

630
00:31:14,790 --> 00:31:17,819
Speaker 2: think that Singapore has done a really good job. As

631
00:31:17,829 --> 00:31:20,650
Speaker 2: we've heard, the public officials say in speeches of really

632
00:31:20,660 --> 00:31:21,969
Speaker 2: trying to be not a rule,

633
00:31:22,060 --> 00:31:24,380
Speaker 2: take her but have a, a bit of a seat

634
00:31:24,390 --> 00:31:27,239
Speaker 2: at the table. I mean, recognizing that it's a smaller

635
00:31:27,250 --> 00:31:31,119
Speaker 2: country but really being relevant and being able to offer

636
00:31:31,130 --> 00:31:33,469
Speaker 2: things not just to the US and China, but all

637
00:31:33,479 --> 00:31:35,670
Speaker 2: countries in the region globally as being a place to

638
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:39,849
Speaker 2: attract investment. So I I see from the speeches again

639
00:31:39,859 --> 00:31:43,589
Speaker 2: of public officials, a real underscoring of the fact that

640
00:31:44,079 --> 00:31:46,589
Speaker 2: it's not just about, oh, we happen to be in

641
00:31:46,599 --> 00:31:49,329
Speaker 2: the middle and we need to, you know, figure out,

642
00:31:49,339 --> 00:31:51,319
Speaker 2: you know, from a reactive point of view, how to

643
00:31:51,329 --> 00:31:53,060
Speaker 2: balance but not be on the back foot, be on

644
00:31:53,069 --> 00:31:55,510
Speaker 2: the front foot to say, what are we as Singapore

645
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,780
Speaker 2: offering the global economy in terms of we've talked about

646
00:31:59,790 --> 00:32:02,699
Speaker 2: it before in this conversation, but you know, supply chains

647
00:32:02,709 --> 00:32:08,630
Speaker 2: as a transit node but then also digital economy. Um and,

648
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:09,939
Speaker 2: and the like, so I think,

649
00:32:10,209 --> 00:32:12,270
Speaker 2: you know, being a financial hub which is I know

650
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,189
Speaker 2: the space that you work more in, they've done a

651
00:32:15,199 --> 00:32:16,719
Speaker 2: really good job at

652
00:32:17,469 --> 00:32:21,599
Speaker 2: really upgrading as much as they can their own capacity

653
00:32:21,609 --> 00:32:24,329
Speaker 2: to again have a voice at the table and really

654
00:32:24,339 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 2: be relevant as policies are set I think they're doing

655
00:32:27,930 --> 00:32:28,410
Speaker 2: a good job

656
00:32:29,229 --> 00:32:34,260
Speaker 1: indeed. Uh And the other area where potentially investment can

657
00:32:34,270 --> 00:32:37,079
Speaker 1: come in is climate finance. You know, when you and

658
00:32:37,089 --> 00:32:39,089
Speaker 1: I had our conversation four years ago, we talked about

659
00:32:39,099 --> 00:32:43,130
Speaker 1: climate risks in the region. Um I personally am not

660
00:32:43,140 --> 00:32:46,489
Speaker 1: very happy with the way this region is dealing with

661
00:32:46,500 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: green transition, but perhaps you have a different view are

662
00:32:49,569 --> 00:32:52,469
Speaker 1: ASEAN businesses getting the right signal from the government about

663
00:32:52,479 --> 00:32:53,170
Speaker 1: green transition.

664
00:32:53,459 --> 00:32:55,719
Speaker 2: I think this is a really key issue and it's

665
00:32:55,729 --> 00:32:58,770
Speaker 2: only gonna grow in importance, I think as um as

666
00:32:58,780 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 2: time goes by. So maybe we need to pick up

667
00:33:01,569 --> 00:33:03,530
Speaker 2: the conversation later down the road as well and see

668
00:33:03,540 --> 00:33:06,949
Speaker 2: how they've done at this current moment. I agree with you.

669
00:33:06,959 --> 00:33:09,849
Speaker 2: I don't think, you know that there are movements in

670
00:33:09,859 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 2: different ASEAN countries in the right way towards green energy transition, right?

671
00:33:15,005 --> 00:33:18,234
Speaker 2: You see, for example, in Laos, there's a lot of

672
00:33:18,244 --> 00:33:22,484
Speaker 2: hydropower being produced uh and putting electricity into the grid

673
00:33:22,744 --> 00:33:24,555
Speaker 2: in ASEAN, there's a lot of leakage there, but that's

674
00:33:24,564 --> 00:33:27,275
Speaker 2: coming through Thailand and down to Singapore. So that's one

675
00:33:27,285 --> 00:33:30,795
Speaker 2: positive thing. It's not needle moving in terms of, you know,

676
00:33:30,805 --> 00:33:34,655
Speaker 2: ASEAN'S green transition, but it is happening. Um If you

677
00:33:34,665 --> 00:33:38,635
Speaker 2: look at um you know, let's say the EV space

678
00:33:38,645 --> 00:33:40,535
Speaker 2: and we talked about that briefly a little bit already,

679
00:33:40,545 --> 00:33:40,895
Speaker 2: but

680
00:33:41,390 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 2: Thailand is the winner here so far in ASEAN in

681
00:33:44,770 --> 00:33:47,900
Speaker 2: terms of production of EV vehicles I think it's 400,000

682
00:33:47,910 --> 00:33:50,410
Speaker 2: this year and next year they're trying for 600,000 if

683
00:33:50,420 --> 00:33:52,729
Speaker 2: they can get that line capacity up. So that's a

684
00:33:52,739 --> 00:33:56,609
Speaker 2: real area where they're trying to drive across ASEAN. Um

685
00:33:56,619 --> 00:33:58,790
Speaker 2: you know, production capability, which is a win, win also

686
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:01,459
Speaker 2: for investment and then hand in hand with that, of course,

687
00:34:01,469 --> 00:34:04,170
Speaker 2: is the battery, the charging infrastructure.

688
00:34:04,405 --> 00:34:07,724
Speaker 2: Um So there's battery production in places like, you know,

689
00:34:07,734 --> 00:34:11,245
Speaker 2: Malaysia and elsewhere, there are, you know, either underdevelopment or

690
00:34:11,254 --> 00:34:16,384
Speaker 2: plans for being under development. So that's all good. Um

691
00:34:16,564 --> 00:34:19,324
Speaker 2: I think there's two issues. One is there continues to

692
00:34:19,334 --> 00:34:24,705
Speaker 2: be a heavy reliance on uh polluting extractive in the region.

693
00:34:24,715 --> 00:34:27,425
Speaker 2: We know it um especially in places like Indonesia.

694
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:30,899
Speaker 2: And then number two, what we hear from our clients

695
00:34:30,909 --> 00:34:34,379
Speaker 2: is they are really keen to find projects to invest

696
00:34:34,389 --> 00:34:38,030
Speaker 2: in that are authentically clean and authentically green. So really

697
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,860
Speaker 2: not any greenwashing, really projects that are going to be

698
00:34:41,870 --> 00:34:45,580
Speaker 2: helping them meet their own carbon targets and meet compliance

699
00:34:45,590 --> 00:34:47,699
Speaker 2: rules to get subsidies from the US or

700
00:34:47,783 --> 00:34:51,283
Speaker 2: the eu on green energy transition issues, right? So they

701
00:34:51,293 --> 00:34:53,393
Speaker 2: are coming to us saying please help us find these

702
00:34:53,404 --> 00:34:56,604
Speaker 2: projects because we need to find ones that are actually

703
00:34:56,614 --> 00:34:59,914
Speaker 2: green but also are actually clean from a corruption point

704
00:34:59,924 --> 00:35:02,384
Speaker 2: of view. That is the other challenge again, particularly in

705
00:35:02,393 --> 00:35:05,993
Speaker 2: places like Indonesia where we need, you know, these clients

706
00:35:06,003 --> 00:35:07,354
Speaker 2: need to find projects that

707
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,750
Speaker 2: are, are again, helping them meet their targets but aren't

708
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 2: involved with the wrong politically exposed people that aren't having

709
00:35:15,090 --> 00:35:17,979
Speaker 2: leakage from corruption that aren't exposing them to issues with

710
00:35:17,989 --> 00:35:20,770
Speaker 2: the Foreign Practices Act, et cetera, et cetera. So that

711
00:35:20,780 --> 00:35:22,899
Speaker 2: is actually where I think

712
00:35:23,739 --> 00:35:26,370
Speaker 2: if the countries across ASEAN really wanted to move the

713
00:35:26,379 --> 00:35:29,199
Speaker 2: needle on it, they could work more on that because

714
00:35:29,209 --> 00:35:33,020
Speaker 2: there is a lot of investor interest, particularly from places

715
00:35:33,030 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 2: like Japan and Korea. It's just not easy at all

716
00:35:37,090 --> 00:35:39,760
Speaker 2: to find the projects that are actually investable to then

717
00:35:39,770 --> 00:35:42,509
Speaker 2: also again be getting the subsidies that the the eu

718
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:43,679
Speaker 2: and the US are giving out.

719
00:35:44,870 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I look at the border adjustment tax

720
00:35:48,570 --> 00:35:50,570
Speaker 1: coming from Europe and I worry that, you know, ASEAN

721
00:35:50,770 --> 00:35:53,149
Speaker 1: exporters will get caught in the net, not fully prepared

722
00:35:53,159 --> 00:35:56,020
Speaker 1: to deal with that. I look at various protection walls

723
00:35:56,030 --> 00:35:58,459
Speaker 1: that the US is putting up and supporting its own industries.

724
00:35:58,469 --> 00:36:01,770
Speaker 1: And again, I worry that that would cause ASEAN businesses

725
00:36:01,780 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: to see some degree of uncertainty or market access restriction

726
00:36:05,750 --> 00:36:08,790
Speaker 1: going forward. I I really want to see more urgency,

727
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:10,969
Speaker 1: Angela and I gotta say I'm a little frustrated.

728
00:36:11,530 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 2: Yes, because I do think, I mean, you know, we

729
00:36:13,729 --> 00:36:15,790
Speaker 2: just saw in the news a week or so ago

730
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:18,790
Speaker 2: that ocean temperatures are at the highest levels they've ever,

731
00:36:18,820 --> 00:36:22,819
Speaker 2: I mean, it's the um the velocity of change with

732
00:36:22,830 --> 00:36:25,839
Speaker 2: climate is picking up, right. So I think there's only

733
00:36:25,850 --> 00:36:28,750
Speaker 2: going to be more and more pressure and certainly, obviously,

734
00:36:29,060 --> 00:36:31,959
Speaker 2: asean being in low lying countries with, you know, water

735
00:36:31,979 --> 00:36:34,419
Speaker 2: rise issues and what not. I, I expect, you know, I,

736
00:36:34,429 --> 00:36:35,350
Speaker 2: I see

737
00:36:35,989 --> 00:36:38,790
Speaker 2: the issue becoming more timely and acute also in voters'

738
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:43,649
Speaker 2: minds quickly, more quickly, maybe than governments expect. And then

739
00:36:43,659 --> 00:36:46,340
Speaker 2: I expect the movement of capital to be there to

740
00:36:46,350 --> 00:36:49,050
Speaker 2: invest in these projects even more quickly. It's just a

741
00:36:49,060 --> 00:36:50,810
Speaker 2: matter of um

742
00:36:51,530 --> 00:36:52,790
Speaker 2: can they find the projects?

743
00:36:53,110 --> 00:36:53,379
Speaker 1: Yeah,

744
00:36:54,169 --> 00:36:57,139
Speaker 1: I was speaking with the US investor the other day,

745
00:36:57,169 --> 00:36:59,429
Speaker 1: the discussion was not really the climate change, but rather

746
00:36:59,439 --> 00:37:03,830
Speaker 1: us government debt and deficit. And his point was that

747
00:37:04,090 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 1: this is one of those things it will only be

748
00:37:06,370 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 1: acted upon when there's a crisis till then, there is

749
00:37:09,010 --> 00:37:11,419
Speaker 1: no impetus. And I, I fear that, you know, we

750
00:37:11,429 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 1: would need some manifestation of climate emergency before we see

751
00:37:14,330 --> 00:37:16,989
Speaker 1: some movement, which is a shame because you would want

752
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,449
Speaker 1: policymakers to have the vision to pre empt these issues

753
00:37:19,459 --> 00:37:21,820
Speaker 1: as opposed to be reactive because then it's sometimes a

754
00:37:21,830 --> 00:37:23,419
Speaker 1: bit too late. Um

755
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,699
Speaker 1: uh Angela, let's move past ASEAN and talk about something

756
00:37:28,709 --> 00:37:31,219
Speaker 1: that control risk does a lot, which is to help

757
00:37:31,229 --> 00:37:35,310
Speaker 1: businesses manage China us friction. Uh We talked about this

758
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,739
Speaker 1: four years from ago. We'll talk about it now. I'm

759
00:37:37,750 --> 00:37:40,050
Speaker 1: sure four years from now, you and I talk, we'll

760
00:37:40,060 --> 00:37:42,500
Speaker 1: be talking about this. Where do we stand now? Where

761
00:37:42,510 --> 00:37:43,100
Speaker 1: are we going?

762
00:37:43,610 --> 00:37:47,409
Speaker 2: So, yeah, um this is something that comes up on

763
00:37:47,419 --> 00:37:50,580
Speaker 2: a on a daily basis, obviously for us. So um

764
00:37:51,030 --> 00:37:52,459
Speaker 2: if you take a step back,

765
00:37:52,919 --> 00:37:56,659
Speaker 2: there has been a floor put under us charge. So

766
00:37:57,399 --> 00:37:59,408
Speaker 2: from an investor's point of view, I guess to start there,

767
00:37:59,419 --> 00:38:00,830
Speaker 2: from an investor's point of view, what do they want,

768
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:05,689
Speaker 2: they want as they're thinking about their very significant portfolios

769
00:38:05,699 --> 00:38:08,330
Speaker 2: of investment in China, both in terms of financially and

770
00:38:08,340 --> 00:38:11,179
Speaker 2: in terms of, you know, factory and operational footprint. They're

771
00:38:11,189 --> 00:38:14,780
Speaker 2: looking for policy certainty, they're looking for uh you know,

772
00:38:14,790 --> 00:38:16,850
Speaker 2: ability to move money out and the ability to move

773
00:38:16,860 --> 00:38:19,149
Speaker 2: goods out and whatnot. And it just really understanding what

774
00:38:19,159 --> 00:38:21,770
Speaker 2: regulations are coming down the pike and how things might change.

775
00:38:22,629 --> 00:38:24,860
Speaker 2: As we know, there's been a a deep frost in

776
00:38:24,870 --> 00:38:28,449
Speaker 2: the relationship. We have seen a floor put under the

777
00:38:28,459 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 2: US China relationship since Xi and Biden met in a

778
00:38:32,330 --> 00:38:36,050
Speaker 2: pe in November in San Francisco. So that's good. Um

779
00:38:36,310 --> 00:38:39,770
Speaker 2: We saw interestingly in the last days, right, we saw

780
00:38:39,830 --> 00:38:45,129
Speaker 2: President Xi host 20 significant American CEO S including the

781
00:38:45,139 --> 00:38:45,350
Speaker 2: ce

782
00:38:45,830 --> 00:38:48,830
Speaker 2: the head of Bloomberg, Stephen Schwarzman from Blackstone, you know,

783
00:38:49,399 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 2: front cover of the ft walking, walking with President Xi.

784
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:57,500
Speaker 2: So there are movements on the China side to um

785
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:02,570
Speaker 2: help assuage concerns of foreign investors and us investors that

786
00:39:02,580 --> 00:39:06,659
Speaker 2: China is indeed open for business. Interestingly, I'm seeing you

787
00:39:06,669 --> 00:39:08,020
Speaker 2: may be seeing this as well.

788
00:39:08,370 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 2: Some movement also on the academic exchange side. So I

789
00:39:12,050 --> 00:39:16,029
Speaker 2: had heard this anecdotally from some people that those academic exchanges,

790
00:39:16,070 --> 00:39:19,310
Speaker 2: Xinghua Brookings and things that had been uh tamped down

791
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,429
Speaker 2: on the past couple of years are reviving. And in fact,

792
00:39:21,439 --> 00:39:24,250
Speaker 2: I just saw posted publicly on the website of Renmin

793
00:39:24,379 --> 00:39:27,340
Speaker 2: University of Beijing. They've announced a new degree, you know,

794
00:39:27,350 --> 00:39:28,469
Speaker 2: a joint degree program.

795
00:39:28,594 --> 00:39:31,783
Speaker 2: GW University, George Washington University in the States, as well

796
00:39:31,794 --> 00:39:35,344
Speaker 2: as Louis University in Rome for a Bachelor's program, you'd

797
00:39:35,354 --> 00:39:38,395
Speaker 2: spend one year in each place. So that's a minor thing.

798
00:39:38,405 --> 00:39:41,774
Speaker 2: But it is important uh signal. I think that there

799
00:39:41,784 --> 00:39:44,975
Speaker 2: is starting to be more exchanges on the academic side

800
00:39:44,985 --> 00:39:46,735
Speaker 2: because I think that just, that just feeds into the

801
00:39:46,745 --> 00:39:48,655
Speaker 2: overall relationship. But all to say,

802
00:39:49,260 --> 00:39:51,439
Speaker 2: what does that mean for us, business point of view,

803
00:39:51,449 --> 00:39:55,399
Speaker 2: we don't expect the direction of travel of the overall

804
00:39:55,409 --> 00:39:57,979
Speaker 2: relationship to change. I mean, hopefully we've got a floor

805
00:39:57,989 --> 00:40:00,280
Speaker 2: under it and of course, it's a US election year.

806
00:40:00,290 --> 00:40:02,060
Speaker 2: So lots of pressure on the US side to be

807
00:40:02,070 --> 00:40:04,219
Speaker 2: tough on China. And of course, we don't know where

808
00:40:04,229 --> 00:40:06,549
Speaker 2: we're going to get come November in the US. So

809
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,359
Speaker 2: that's another point of the conversation.

810
00:40:08,620 --> 00:40:11,610
Speaker 2: But for now, um again, there is a floor which

811
00:40:11,620 --> 00:40:13,919
Speaker 2: is good news for business, but we don't expect that,

812
00:40:13,929 --> 00:40:17,639
Speaker 2: you know, but structurally, those challenges are absolutely remaining and

813
00:40:17,649 --> 00:40:20,179
Speaker 2: we see out of the States, you know, questions about,

814
00:40:20,189 --> 00:40:23,100
Speaker 2: are we gonna allow Chinese evs in the States? Are

815
00:40:23,110 --> 00:40:26,090
Speaker 2: we gonna allow Tik Tok to continue in the States?

816
00:40:26,100 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 2: Which is a whole separate conversation?

817
00:40:28,479 --> 00:40:32,540
Speaker 2: But what businesses are worried about is, can I continue

818
00:40:32,550 --> 00:40:36,179
Speaker 2: to operate? Will the US? Based on what I do

819
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,100
Speaker 2: still allow me to operate the way I want to

820
00:40:38,110 --> 00:40:40,669
Speaker 2: operate in China? Number one, number two, what are the

821
00:40:40,679 --> 00:40:44,169
Speaker 2: regulations that might come out in China that might impact me?

822
00:40:44,179 --> 00:40:46,100
Speaker 2: And how do I really stay compliant? It's hard to

823
00:40:46,110 --> 00:40:49,540
Speaker 2: stay compliant with both even on things like data protection.

824
00:40:49,709 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 2: So a lot of companies are coming to us and saying,

825
00:40:52,010 --> 00:40:55,580
Speaker 2: can you help us preemptively um by

826
00:40:56,149 --> 00:40:59,159
Speaker 2: our back office it systems because you know, even if

827
00:40:59,169 --> 00:41:01,219
Speaker 2: we're not planning to leave China and we do see

828
00:41:01,229 --> 00:41:04,639
Speaker 2: a lot less, you know, headlines would make you think

829
00:41:04,659 --> 00:41:07,669
Speaker 2: that a lot of Western companies are exiting China, you know,

830
00:41:07,679 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: in droves, it's not true. Of course, some are pulling out.

831
00:41:11,050 --> 00:41:14,199
Speaker 2: There's been a deris out of China for years for

832
00:41:14,209 --> 00:41:17,679
Speaker 2: cost reasons even before the tensions. But what we're seeing

833
00:41:17,689 --> 00:41:19,799
Speaker 2: so that's, you know, that's not a new story, but

834
00:41:19,810 --> 00:41:22,750
Speaker 2: what we're seeing is a new uh look at,

835
00:41:23,090 --> 00:41:25,590
Speaker 2: you know, if we do need to derisk further or

836
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:27,969
Speaker 2: if given our business model at some point, we need

837
00:41:27,979 --> 00:41:31,989
Speaker 2: to exit, are we ok to, are we, are we

838
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,169
Speaker 2: ok to do that? And have we also really dealt

839
00:41:35,179 --> 00:41:38,770
Speaker 2: with the data, um the data issues that we're facing

840
00:41:38,780 --> 00:41:40,989
Speaker 2: and kind of just bifurcating that back office. So the

841
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:45,219
Speaker 2: kind of the, as we say that China situations broken

842
00:41:45,229 --> 00:41:47,580
Speaker 2: the shared services model for it and the kind of

843
00:41:47,590 --> 00:41:49,909
Speaker 2: back office support. So that's another area we're looking at

844
00:41:49,919 --> 00:41:50,550
Speaker 2: as well.

845
00:41:51,639 --> 00:41:54,699
Speaker 2: But the election year, I think it's gonna be, you know,

846
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:56,439
Speaker 2: some twists and turns along the way,

847
00:41:57,030 --> 00:41:58,610
Speaker 1: right? I I want to go into the elections in

848
00:41:58,620 --> 00:42:00,750
Speaker 1: a second. I just want to tie something that you

849
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,659
Speaker 1: had mentioned earlier to what you're talking about right now.

850
00:42:03,669 --> 00:42:06,209
Speaker 1: Uh You were saying earlier in the context of cost

851
00:42:06,219 --> 00:42:08,929
Speaker 1: of doing business that you know, the supply chain fragmentation

852
00:42:08,939 --> 00:42:11,350
Speaker 1: as for the cost of doing business four years ago.

853
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,509
Speaker 1: In this podcast, you have mentioned that

854
00:42:13,969 --> 00:42:17,350
Speaker 1: companies MN CS are not divesting from China but the

855
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,909
Speaker 1: marginal dollar of investment, they would like to deploy somewhere else.

856
00:42:20,919 --> 00:42:23,949
Speaker 1: And that's the part of the strategy. I'm assuming that

857
00:42:23,959 --> 00:42:27,530
Speaker 1: strategy has sustained through the last four years and is

858
00:42:27,540 --> 00:42:28,820
Speaker 1: it too early to

859
00:42:29,530 --> 00:42:31,689
Speaker 1: they can make a conclusion that whether the strategy has

860
00:42:31,699 --> 00:42:34,750
Speaker 1: been successful or is it like a work in progress

861
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,290
Speaker 1: or it's actually not been a good strategy?

862
00:42:37,300 --> 00:42:39,810
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a really, really important question and

863
00:42:39,820 --> 00:42:42,479
Speaker 2: a lot of CEO S that I talked to here

864
00:42:42,489 --> 00:42:45,570
Speaker 2: in Asia um are talking about exactly that. So I

865
00:42:45,580 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 2: think it's still a work in progress is a short answer.

866
00:42:48,260 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 2: It's interesting because in, in city

867
00:42:50,139 --> 00:42:51,969
Speaker 2: and a lot of round tables with these CEO S

868
00:42:51,979 --> 00:42:55,060
Speaker 2: through the months. Many, many of them Western CEO S

869
00:42:55,070 --> 00:42:58,090
Speaker 2: expected to see a bump in the China business at

870
00:42:58,100 --> 00:43:00,469
Speaker 2: the beginning of this calendar year. And it didn't come

871
00:43:00,479 --> 00:43:04,229
Speaker 2: and actually sorry, the middle of last year didn't come,

872
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:06,679
Speaker 2: didn't come, didn't come, you know, as, as co restrictions were,

873
00:43:06,689 --> 00:43:12,189
Speaker 2: were lifted, geopolitics hasn't really improved. And so some decisions

874
00:43:12,199 --> 00:43:13,830
Speaker 2: are being made, but we've had a lot of clients

875
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 2: come to us and they're still coming to us saying

876
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:19,159
Speaker 2: we are putting some growth money in China for certain things.

877
00:43:19,290 --> 00:43:21,449
Speaker 2: But can you please tell us more about India or

878
00:43:21,459 --> 00:43:24,219
Speaker 2: tell us more about Poland or tell us more about Mexico.

879
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,610
Speaker 2: So the growth money is going to other places. But

880
00:43:27,919 --> 00:43:31,379
Speaker 2: on the whole, I would say it's definitely not clear

881
00:43:31,389 --> 00:43:34,389
Speaker 2: exactly how much is gonna still go into China

882
00:43:34,479 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 2: or not. And if it's not where to, it seems

883
00:43:37,129 --> 00:43:39,580
Speaker 2: to be, there's no consensus for what we can see

884
00:43:39,860 --> 00:43:42,929
Speaker 2: in all the conversations we have about, you know, yeah,

885
00:43:42,939 --> 00:43:45,739
Speaker 2: we can safely say businesses moving from here to there

886
00:43:45,750 --> 00:43:48,449
Speaker 2: or all the growth money is only going back into

887
00:43:48,459 --> 00:43:51,379
Speaker 2: China in these sectors. It's still a work in progress.

888
00:43:51,389 --> 00:43:52,620
Speaker 2: And I think companies

889
00:43:52,909 --> 00:43:55,489
Speaker 2: to be honest, are probably also at the same time

890
00:43:55,500 --> 00:43:58,570
Speaker 2: investing heavily in their own digital transformation and, and just

891
00:43:58,580 --> 00:44:00,570
Speaker 2: the advent of A I and what it would mean

892
00:44:00,580 --> 00:44:03,709
Speaker 2: for their own operational efficiencies internally, even forget what it

893
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:06,850
Speaker 2: means for their kind of, you know, consumer products and things.

894
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:09,879
Speaker 2: And so we're seeing a lot of budgets increase in

895
00:44:09,889 --> 00:44:13,350
Speaker 2: the digital transformation space. So we reckon that it may

896
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:17,899
Speaker 2: be that there's more executive focus now on that and

897
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,540
Speaker 2: where the business sits between China and other markets is important.

898
00:44:21,550 --> 00:44:22,739
Speaker 2: But um

899
00:44:23,179 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 2: they're not making decisions all that quickly um on the,

900
00:44:27,629 --> 00:44:31,009
Speaker 2: on the China growth strategy and I think a lot

901
00:44:31,020 --> 00:44:33,370
Speaker 2: of people are and we'll talk about the election in

902
00:44:33,379 --> 00:44:35,399
Speaker 2: a few minutes down the road. But I think it's

903
00:44:35,409 --> 00:44:37,899
Speaker 2: true that a lot of people are looking at what's

904
00:44:37,909 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 2: going to happen with the US election where it's gonna

905
00:44:39,610 --> 00:44:43,020
Speaker 2: go and, and any um uncertainty even in the months

906
00:44:43,030 --> 00:44:46,919
Speaker 2: throughout the electoral process. So I don't see any

907
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:51,330
Speaker 2: big needle moving decisions being made and announced publicly with

908
00:44:51,340 --> 00:44:53,770
Speaker 2: respect to the question of is the growth, money

909
00:44:54,379 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 2: and going into other markets. And what does that look like?

910
00:44:57,290 --> 00:44:59,770
Speaker 1: All right, once again, you have done a perfect job

911
00:44:59,780 --> 00:45:03,199
Speaker 1: of transitioning to the next subject. All right, your selections

912
00:45:03,449 --> 00:45:04,350
Speaker 1: talk about it.

913
00:45:04,919 --> 00:45:07,830
Speaker 2: Oh my goodness. We could talk for hours um to

914
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:10,679
Speaker 2: sum up. I mean, it's, it's such, it's, you know,

915
00:45:10,689 --> 00:45:13,270
Speaker 2: such a fascinating year. We, we've got

916
00:45:14,229 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 2: a rematch of probably the, you know, two of the

917
00:45:16,570 --> 00:45:20,489
Speaker 2: most unpopular candidates in recent memory. Um

918
00:45:21,350 --> 00:45:23,010
Speaker 2: If you take, if you just look at like what

919
00:45:23,020 --> 00:45:24,899
Speaker 2: might happen with the election and then we can talk

920
00:45:24,909 --> 00:45:26,750
Speaker 2: about what the impact is going to be with the

921
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:29,810
Speaker 2: election itself. We still have months to go. It's still

922
00:45:29,820 --> 00:45:33,620
Speaker 2: somewhat early days, um, which is extraordinary considering it's, you know,

923
00:45:33,629 --> 00:45:37,179
Speaker 2: actually not that far away, but we are seeing in

924
00:45:37,189 --> 00:45:40,310
Speaker 2: terms of national polls, Trump is still beating Biden in

925
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 2: the national polls. So I think I looked this morning,

926
00:45:42,370 --> 00:45:44,219
Speaker 2: it was by five was the last one for a

927
00:45:44,229 --> 00:45:46,370
Speaker 2: 5045 margin.

928
00:45:47,310 --> 00:45:50,790
Speaker 2: But what matters more is these swing states, right, particularly Wisconsin,

929
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,419
Speaker 2: Michigan and Pennsylvania. There was a poll that came out

930
00:45:53,429 --> 00:45:56,929
Speaker 2: in the last 24 48 hours saying that um, he's

931
00:45:56,939 --> 00:45:59,469
Speaker 2: Biden has now moved. It's, it's called the Biden bomb.

932
00:45:59,479 --> 00:46:02,350
Speaker 2: So given the, given the spirited state of the union

933
00:46:02,550 --> 00:46:03,169
Speaker 2: and given

934
00:46:03,254 --> 00:46:05,465
Speaker 2: um some other things, you know, the economy is feeling

935
00:46:05,475 --> 00:46:07,654
Speaker 2: a little bit better. There's a biting bump, but that

936
00:46:07,665 --> 00:46:10,455
Speaker 2: bump means that he's moving up to just tying in

937
00:46:10,465 --> 00:46:12,594
Speaker 2: two of those key swing states and then picking up

938
00:46:12,604 --> 00:46:15,415
Speaker 2: by one in another one, I think it's Wisconsin was

939
00:46:15,425 --> 00:46:17,354
Speaker 2: the one where he's up by one if I'm not mistaken.

940
00:46:17,614 --> 00:46:18,995
Speaker 2: But all to say that

941
00:46:19,830 --> 00:46:23,350
Speaker 2: Biden obviously is facing headwinds with age, his own age, right,

942
00:46:23,479 --> 00:46:27,300
Speaker 2: which is apparent every single time he does anything, even

943
00:46:27,310 --> 00:46:31,050
Speaker 2: a very spirited city union, I think expectations were so

944
00:46:31,060 --> 00:46:34,449
Speaker 2: low that he did well, which was great for him

945
00:46:34,459 --> 00:46:37,889
Speaker 2: and his campaign. But, you know, there's many, many more

946
00:46:37,959 --> 00:46:40,969
Speaker 2: uh appearances to be made and either one of them

947
00:46:40,979 --> 00:46:43,820
Speaker 2: frankly could have a health issue at any moment. Right. Um,

948
00:46:43,830 --> 00:46:44,719
Speaker 2: so he's facing the

949
00:46:44,820 --> 00:46:48,659
Speaker 2: issue, huge issue, problems with, um, obviously the border is

950
00:46:48,669 --> 00:46:51,889
Speaker 2: a massive issue for that campaign and that's for blue

951
00:46:51,899 --> 00:46:54,979
Speaker 2: and red states alike with all the migrants, you know,

952
00:46:54,989 --> 00:46:56,830
Speaker 2: being brought up to New York City. It's a huge

953
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,310
Speaker 2: issue for a big blue state like New York. Um,

954
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,060
Speaker 2: and then, you know, the economy is still an issue

955
00:47:02,169 --> 00:47:04,649
Speaker 2: from a macro point. The numbers look better, but there's

956
00:47:04,659 --> 00:47:06,639
Speaker 2: a lot of people that are losing work and can't

957
00:47:06,649 --> 00:47:09,639
Speaker 2: find work and, you know, it feels like a pocketbook issue.

958
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:14,179
Speaker 2: So Biden's campaign faces those headwinds. The Trump campaign has

959
00:47:14,189 --> 00:47:19,370
Speaker 2: its own headwinds. So the Trump, uh, Candacy got 46%

960
00:47:19,379 --> 00:47:21,939
Speaker 2: of the popular vote the last two times they ran.

961
00:47:22,199 --> 00:47:25,179
Speaker 2: So one can expect they're probably gonna get 46% of

962
00:47:25,189 --> 00:47:27,649
Speaker 2: the popular vote this time as well. They're not picking

963
00:47:27,659 --> 00:47:31,100
Speaker 2: up any voters. Um That's the challenge that he would

964
00:47:31,110 --> 00:47:33,969
Speaker 2: have to have is it's not, it's, it's Biden would

965
00:47:33,979 --> 00:47:36,139
Speaker 2: have to lose as opposed to Trump winning, right? So

966
00:47:36,149 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 2: Biden's not, Trump's not picking up additional votes. Um

967
00:47:40,510 --> 00:47:44,409
Speaker 2: They have a big problem with cash. They, um I

968
00:47:44,419 --> 00:47:46,629
Speaker 2: think the last numbers I saw in the last week,

969
00:47:46,639 --> 00:47:49,030
Speaker 2: the Biden campaign is something like 100 and $50 million

970
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:52,659
Speaker 2: of cash and Trump has 46 plus that cash is

971
00:47:52,669 --> 00:47:54,678
Speaker 2: being put towards legal bills, which there are many,

972
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:57,609
Speaker 2: you know, plus then there's, uh, there's obviously issues with

973
00:47:57,620 --> 00:48:00,699
Speaker 2: just how he's running the campaign and more broadly, but

974
00:48:00,750 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 2: Biden's just overnight announced a big fundraiser that he's going

975
00:48:04,330 --> 00:48:07,199
Speaker 2: to do with Obama and former President Clinton as well.

976
00:48:07,209 --> 00:48:09,810
Speaker 2: So the cash keeps rolling into the Biden campaign and

977
00:48:09,820 --> 00:48:12,219
Speaker 2: nothing stimulates democratic voters more than,

978
00:48:12,750 --> 00:48:14,780
Speaker 2: you know, getting closer to race and thinking Trump's actually

979
00:48:14,790 --> 00:48:18,479
Speaker 2: an option that's gonna motivate voter turnout. So control risks

980
00:48:18,489 --> 00:48:22,639
Speaker 2: at this point is considering a Biden win, narrow win,

981
00:48:22,649 --> 00:48:27,219
Speaker 2: likely that's our base case scenario for all these structural reasons.

982
00:48:27,229 --> 00:48:28,929
Speaker 2: In addition to the fact that the Democrats have been

983
00:48:28,939 --> 00:48:31,570
Speaker 2: doing better than expected in all the state elections and

984
00:48:31,580 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 2: special elections have been going uh that have been happening

985
00:48:35,090 --> 00:48:37,949
Speaker 2: in the recent past and also on wedge issues as

986
00:48:37,959 --> 00:48:41,270
Speaker 2: well like abortion and with female reproductive rights. So all

987
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 2: to say

988
00:48:43,149 --> 00:48:46,009
Speaker 2: it may be a narrow win for Biden.

989
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 2: But I would also add in, let's look at RFK

990
00:48:49,610 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 2: junior because I think that's an interesting one. So he

991
00:48:52,090 --> 00:48:53,939
Speaker 2: may be the Jill Stein of the last election. So

992
00:48:53,949 --> 00:48:57,830
Speaker 2: why is that relevant? Here's someone with the Kennedy name with,

993
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:01,199
Speaker 2: I mean, he's got a very unique political perspective. He's

994
00:49:01,209 --> 00:49:03,759
Speaker 2: an anti vaxxer and the rest of it. So he's

995
00:49:03,770 --> 00:49:06,319
Speaker 2: running as an independent, former Democrat. I don't think he'll

996
00:49:06,330 --> 00:49:09,299
Speaker 2: get a whole lot of votes, but could he get

997
00:49:09,310 --> 00:49:12,779
Speaker 2: enough to um be a spoiler for Biden is the

998
00:49:12,790 --> 00:49:13,459
Speaker 2: question

999
00:49:13,889 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 2: he just named as his vice president, vice presidential candidate

1000
00:49:17,350 --> 00:49:22,550
Speaker 2: Nicole Shanahan, who's the ex-wife of the Google founder, Sergey Brin,

1001
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:26,620
Speaker 2: she's got her net worth is supposedly $400 million. Why

1002
00:49:26,629 --> 00:49:29,250
Speaker 2: is that important? Because the trick of an independent candidate

1003
00:49:29,260 --> 00:49:31,229
Speaker 2: is to actually get on the ballot on all those

1004
00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:34,879
Speaker 2: states and so that money could jumpstart that ability to

1005
00:49:34,889 --> 00:49:38,310
Speaker 2: mobilize to do that. Do I think he's a serious candidate?

1006
00:49:38,500 --> 00:49:40,158
Speaker 2: Not really at all?

1007
00:49:40,449 --> 00:49:43,989
Speaker 2: But could it could there be enough votes taken in

1008
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:51,428
Speaker 2: certain important states potentially? Especially since overarching perspective, the vote,

1009
00:49:51,439 --> 00:49:53,610
Speaker 2: the candidate that tends to win is the one that's

1010
00:49:53,620 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 2: the champion for the forgotten middle class and he is

1011
00:49:56,530 --> 00:50:00,790
Speaker 2: that and he's very uh in line with that view

1012
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,979
Speaker 2: when it comes to being um pro

1013
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:07,419
Speaker 2: you know, supporting Gaza and what's happening there and, and

1014
00:50:07,429 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 2: being very strong on the border, very pro border policy.

1015
00:50:10,610 --> 00:50:14,310
Speaker 2: So there could be a situation where he comes into

1016
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,259
Speaker 2: play in such a way that it does impact things

1017
00:50:16,270 --> 00:50:19,739
Speaker 2: but all to say election results unclear.

1018
00:50:20,100 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 2: Ma many things could happen between now and then again,

1019
00:50:22,610 --> 00:50:25,479
Speaker 2: help event for either Biden or Trump and more legal

1020
00:50:25,489 --> 00:50:27,879
Speaker 2: woes for Trump and the rest of it. But uh

1021
00:50:27,889 --> 00:50:31,110
Speaker 2: the real issue our clients are worried about is the

1022
00:50:31,250 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 2: domestic political uncertainty during the election itself. And then in

1023
00:50:36,090 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 2: the months after, if it's contested, which there's a high

1024
00:50:38,530 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 2: likelihood that it would be.

1025
00:50:40,780 --> 00:50:43,439
Speaker 1: Right. Because, gosh, if there's a narrow win, you know,

1026
00:50:43,449 --> 00:50:45,859
Speaker 1: for sure Trump is not going to accept that result

1027
00:50:45,870 --> 00:50:47,580
Speaker 1: and again, have,

1028
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,100
Speaker 2: yeah. And, and even if it's, even if it's not

1029
00:50:50,110 --> 00:50:52,270
Speaker 2: that narrow of a win, I mean, you know, if

1030
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:56,229
Speaker 2: you look at it was a carry lake, I mean, um, uh,

1031
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,060
Speaker 2: if I've got that right, you know, coming out and saying,

1032
00:50:59,070 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 2: you know, things were stolen right out the gate. So

1033
00:51:01,889 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 2: it's more the issue of,

1034
00:51:03,979 --> 00:51:06,409
Speaker 2: you know, either Trump's gonna win, which has a host

1035
00:51:06,419 --> 00:51:07,159
Speaker 2: of issues

1036
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 2: for political certainty and, and economic certainty. But if Biden

1037
00:51:11,370 --> 00:51:13,580
Speaker 2: wins by a little or even by a lot or

1038
00:51:13,590 --> 00:51:17,179
Speaker 2: even frankly, probably by any majority, there's a strong case

1039
00:51:17,189 --> 00:51:19,469
Speaker 2: that it's going to be immediately called rigged and re-election

1040
00:51:19,479 --> 00:51:22,199
Speaker 2: counts and things we, you know, vote counts, which we

1041
00:51:22,209 --> 00:51:25,179
Speaker 2: saw before. I think the challenge is

1042
00:51:25,310 --> 00:51:28,689
Speaker 2: how significant will that be this time in terms of

1043
00:51:28,889 --> 00:51:33,300
Speaker 2: um distracting the US from things globally? And are there

1044
00:51:33,310 --> 00:51:36,689
Speaker 2: geopolitical players unlike last time where it was a surprise?

1045
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:40,320
Speaker 2: Are there geopolitical players planning for that and maybe using

1046
00:51:40,330 --> 00:51:42,729
Speaker 2: that window of opportunity of some months

1047
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:45,939
Speaker 2: to do some things globally that maybe we don't want

1048
00:51:45,949 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 2: to see? Right? And you're thinking even just about Russia

1049
00:51:48,770 --> 00:51:50,969
Speaker 2: and Ukraine, you know, what could happen in those months,

1050
00:51:51,060 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 2: I think is what a lot of our investor clients

1051
00:51:54,570 --> 00:51:55,469
Speaker 2: are looking at

1052
00:51:56,729 --> 00:52:00,610
Speaker 1: Angela. I think it is relatively easy to predict a

1053
00:52:00,620 --> 00:52:04,750
Speaker 1: second term of Biden, more support for Green transition, some

1054
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:09,750
Speaker 1: degree of involvement in resolving issues in Palestine picking up

1055
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:14,709
Speaker 1: a fight with the liquid government in, in Israel or,

1056
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:18,189
Speaker 1: or trying to support, you know, wholeheartedly, Ukrainians causing against Russia,

1057
00:52:18,199 --> 00:52:20,570
Speaker 1: that sort of stuff. I think we can predict fairly well.

1058
00:52:20,580 --> 00:52:24,310
Speaker 1: Is a Trump 2.0 predictable scenario.

1059
00:52:25,659 --> 00:52:28,330
Speaker 2: Yes and no, it may be. It, it's, I mean,

1060
00:52:28,340 --> 00:52:30,439
Speaker 2: it's a great question in a way, it's

1061
00:52:31,409 --> 00:52:35,070
Speaker 2: uh more predictable than it was the last time he

1062
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:38,250
Speaker 2: was president. Why? Because last time was such a surprise

1063
00:52:38,260 --> 00:52:41,030
Speaker 2: and a shock even to him from what we read,

1064
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:43,399
Speaker 2: um that there now is a, there is a run

1065
00:52:43,409 --> 00:52:46,379
Speaker 2: up to this for him. There is a campaign structure

1066
00:52:46,389 --> 00:52:49,199
Speaker 2: that involves also, you know, policy thinkers for right or wrong.

1067
00:52:49,209 --> 00:52:50,790
Speaker 2: I've been on calls with some of them.

1068
00:52:51,489 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 2: Uh One can have a conversation if they agree or

1069
00:52:53,530 --> 00:52:55,550
Speaker 2: disagree with a Trump

1070
00:52:56,689 --> 00:52:59,989
Speaker 2: policy on, let's say China, but it is a very

1071
00:53:00,010 --> 00:53:03,870
Speaker 2: well thought through and lucidly explained policy. So there is

1072
00:53:03,879 --> 00:53:08,500
Speaker 2: more of that kind of intellectual firepower behind um thinking

1073
00:53:08,510 --> 00:53:12,699
Speaker 2: through and kind of gaming out policies in advance. Um

1074
00:53:12,959 --> 00:53:14,138
Speaker 2: Having said that

1075
00:53:14,770 --> 00:53:18,229
Speaker 2: there's also none of the or very few. I haven't

1076
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 2: really seen any of the old guard, the moderate Republican party, the,

1077
00:53:23,050 --> 00:53:24,709
Speaker 2: as they called it last time the adults in the

1078
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:29,870
Speaker 2: room that would be around Trump. So in terms of, um,

1079
00:53:31,010 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 2: uh, uh, dampening down some erratic impulses he may have

1080
00:53:35,129 --> 00:53:37,830
Speaker 2: in terms of policy making. Uh, the, the people that

1081
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,919
Speaker 2: we looked at before to kind of keep that in

1082
00:53:39,929 --> 00:53:42,229
Speaker 2: check or just kind of slow walk things or not

1083
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 2: really actively action things. They're not there. This is going

1084
00:53:46,090 --> 00:53:48,290
Speaker 2: to be a different crop of people and they're unknown

1085
00:53:48,300 --> 00:53:50,540
Speaker 2: to the broader kind of policy community in the state.

1086
00:53:50,550 --> 00:53:54,310
Speaker 2: So in that way, it is more unpredictable and then,

1087
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:54,939
Speaker 2: you know,

1088
00:53:55,600 --> 00:53:58,409
Speaker 2: he's gonna be however many years older at that point

1089
00:53:58,419 --> 00:54:01,060
Speaker 2: and threat. So people, you know, he's gonna be more

1090
00:54:01,070 --> 00:54:03,089
Speaker 2: erratic kind of as time passes and his views may

1091
00:54:03,100 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 2: evolve and current events may um may have changed his

1092
00:54:06,090 --> 00:54:08,699
Speaker 2: thinking in some ways. So it's a little hard to say.

1093
00:54:08,709 --> 00:54:11,330
Speaker 2: I do think if there's a Trump presidency,

1094
00:54:12,010 --> 00:54:14,469
Speaker 2: there's a and frankly, some of our clients in places

1095
00:54:14,479 --> 00:54:16,219
Speaker 2: like Japan and Korea and elsewhere are already hedging for

1096
00:54:16,229 --> 00:54:20,590
Speaker 2: this is what does he do? Obviously with Russia and Ukraine,

1097
00:54:20,879 --> 00:54:25,379
Speaker 2: um if he decides to withdraw all funding from Ukraine

1098
00:54:25,389 --> 00:54:28,729
Speaker 2: and be supportive of what Russia is doing, that changes

1099
00:54:28,739 --> 00:54:31,770
Speaker 2: the entire calculus for Europe. And also for NATO, what

1100
00:54:31,780 --> 00:54:32,699
Speaker 2: does he do with

1101
00:54:33,050 --> 00:54:35,929
Speaker 2: issues he's done in the past, which is pushing Japan

1102
00:54:35,939 --> 00:54:40,589
Speaker 2: and South Korea for more funding um for military presence or,

1103
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:43,429
Speaker 2: you know, let's if not go for your life and we'll,

1104
00:54:43,439 --> 00:54:43,860
Speaker 2: you know,

1105
00:54:44,419 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 2: not have such a strong relationship on the security side,

1106
00:54:47,090 --> 00:54:50,090
Speaker 2: which has massive implications for Japan and South Korea and

1107
00:54:50,100 --> 00:54:55,439
Speaker 2: Asian security. We're already seeing Japan remilitarization, which hasn't happened in,

1108
00:54:55,449 --> 00:54:57,989
Speaker 2: you know, since World War two. And so we actually

1109
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 2: have clients that are looking to invest in supporting that

1110
00:55:01,090 --> 00:55:05,609
Speaker 2: remilitarization in Japan. Why is Japan remilitarization in part because

1111
00:55:05,620 --> 00:55:10,810
Speaker 2: of there's a, you know, more um unclear security arrangement

1112
00:55:10,820 --> 00:55:12,340
Speaker 2: for the Indo Pacific.

1113
00:55:12,435 --> 00:55:15,175
Speaker 2: So I think uh it's gonna be hard to say

1114
00:55:15,225 --> 00:55:18,044
Speaker 2: which way he's gonna go. How and, and how interested

1115
00:55:18,054 --> 00:55:19,745
Speaker 2: is he in actually governing? I mean, is he gonna

1116
00:55:19,754 --> 00:55:21,395
Speaker 2: get into the weeds with some of these policies and

1117
00:55:21,405 --> 00:55:23,354
Speaker 2: come in with the grand plan or is it gonna

1118
00:55:23,364 --> 00:55:25,175
Speaker 2: be some people around him that do and is that

1119
00:55:25,185 --> 00:55:27,985
Speaker 2: gonna be erratic or is he gonna keep people around?

1120
00:55:27,995 --> 00:55:29,935
Speaker 2: I mean, all the people that are writing the policy

1121
00:55:29,945 --> 00:55:32,185
Speaker 2: papers for him now and doing the talks at the

1122
00:55:32,195 --> 00:55:33,915
Speaker 2: Council on Foreign Relations, you know, are they even gonna

1123
00:55:33,925 --> 00:55:38,455
Speaker 2: be around in week two? Unclear? Um, so I guess

1124
00:55:38,465 --> 00:55:40,354
Speaker 2: net net, it would probably be

1125
00:55:40,899 --> 00:55:43,550
Speaker 2: potentially a bit more unpredictable in that regard.

1126
00:55:44,860 --> 00:55:47,810
Speaker 1: That's a fascinating way of looking at it. And now

1127
00:55:47,820 --> 00:55:50,629
Speaker 1: you've given me cause for worry. Um No, you're right.

1128
00:55:50,639 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 1: I think that in some ways Trump 2.0 could be

1129
00:55:53,770 --> 00:55:57,359
Speaker 1: more consequential but at the same time, unpredictable and huge

1130
00:55:57,370 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 1: source of headache for businesses. I mean, to your point

1131
00:56:00,610 --> 00:56:04,010
Speaker 1: that some of the positions we may disagree or agree with,

1132
00:56:04,020 --> 00:56:06,469
Speaker 1: but there is definitely more intellectual backbone.

1133
00:56:06,729 --> 00:56:10,949
Speaker 1: I saw former trade representative Robert Lighthizer read an article

1134
00:56:10,959 --> 00:56:15,359
Speaker 1: last week explaining to your point fairly lucid terms why

1135
00:56:15,370 --> 00:56:17,850
Speaker 1: a 10% across the board tariff makes sense for the

1136
00:56:17,860 --> 00:56:21,229
Speaker 1: US workers and jobs and the future of the US

1137
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:24,590
Speaker 1: and why, you know, increasing tariffs even further against China

1138
00:56:24,780 --> 00:56:25,010
Speaker 1: uh

1139
00:56:25,419 --> 00:56:28,280
Speaker 1: should be ok, the Chinese should understand that. Uh And,

1140
00:56:28,290 --> 00:56:30,179
Speaker 1: and so we don't want to be enemies with China,

1141
00:56:30,189 --> 00:56:33,009
Speaker 1: but at the same time, we don't want Chinese trade,

1142
00:56:33,020 --> 00:56:36,739
Speaker 1: that sort of stuff. Um So yeah, you got to

1143
00:56:36,750 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 1: be seen one final question. I mean, typically vice presidential

1144
00:56:41,050 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 1: picks are inconsequential but this time

1145
00:56:44,570 --> 00:56:49,810
Speaker 1: with two rather, you know, elderly presidential candidates, the chance

1146
00:56:49,820 --> 00:56:52,070
Speaker 1: of the vice presidential candidate actually becoming the president in

1147
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:55,469
Speaker 1: the next four years is substantial. Um So Kamala Harris

1148
00:56:55,479 --> 00:56:58,969
Speaker 1: remains Biden's vice president and who's going to be Trump's

1149
00:56:58,979 --> 00:56:59,820
Speaker 1: vice president?

1150
00:57:00,199 --> 00:57:03,300
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that, yeah, I mean, you're, that's another great question.

1151
00:57:03,310 --> 00:57:07,280
Speaker 2: So I mean, just speaking briefly, first about Biden, there's

1152
00:57:07,290 --> 00:57:11,158
Speaker 2: a lot of calls quietly in across the democratic space

1153
00:57:11,169 --> 00:57:13,729
Speaker 2: to think about a new vice president because Kamala Harris

1154
00:57:13,739 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 2: is unpopular. A lot of people look at her and

1155
00:57:16,129 --> 00:57:16,540
Speaker 2: say

1156
00:57:16,625 --> 00:57:18,514
Speaker 2: we don't see her being able to step into the

1157
00:57:18,524 --> 00:57:20,284
Speaker 2: role of the president is that a drag on his

1158
00:57:20,294 --> 00:57:24,084
Speaker 2: ability to um to win the election. But there's no

1159
00:57:24,094 --> 00:57:27,834
Speaker 2: way uh that we see him dropping her in any way,

1160
00:57:27,844 --> 00:57:30,885
Speaker 2: shape or form. I think the constituency that she brings

1161
00:57:30,895 --> 00:57:32,955
Speaker 2: is too important to him. It's,

1162
00:57:33,209 --> 00:57:36,110
Speaker 2: you know, a, a time on a national stage. I mean, it,

1163
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:38,750
Speaker 2: you know, she's already at least been in, in power

1164
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:41,949
Speaker 2: alongside and if you look at, um, you know, um,

1165
00:57:41,979 --> 00:57:44,870
Speaker 2: uh Rhonda Santas, we all thought, ok, he's gonna be

1166
00:57:44,879 --> 00:57:47,149
Speaker 2: great on the national stage and then he crumbled and

1167
00:57:47,159 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 2: didn't do so well. The risk of bringing in a

1168
00:57:48,810 --> 00:57:52,790
Speaker 2: new person who wouldn't do at least as well is there.

1169
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 2: And then not to mention also Biden's a very loyal person.

1170
00:57:55,370 --> 00:57:55,870
Speaker 2: Um

1171
00:57:56,649 --> 00:57:59,139
Speaker 2: So he's given signals quietly that, you know, that that's

1172
00:57:59,149 --> 00:58:01,439
Speaker 2: not changing. So there's that, that's kind of, that's kind

1173
00:58:01,449 --> 00:58:03,949
Speaker 2: of baked on the Trump side. We don't know. I mean,

1174
00:58:03,959 --> 00:58:07,350
Speaker 2: could he pick, you know, some say he'll pick Nikki Haley. Uh,

1175
00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:09,899
Speaker 2: you know, that would be bringing in independent voters and

1176
00:58:09,909 --> 00:58:13,110
Speaker 2: more moderate republicans. She did very well in the race.

1177
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:17,149
Speaker 2: She really raised her stature. She's a woman. Um, but

1178
00:58:17,159 --> 00:58:21,189
Speaker 2: I think there's not really a chance for that, given the, um,

1179
00:58:21,239 --> 00:58:21,870
Speaker 2: animosity

1180
00:58:21,945 --> 00:58:23,584
Speaker 2: now between the two and the fact that she came

1181
00:58:23,594 --> 00:58:26,084
Speaker 2: out so hard against him, uh, over the course of

1182
00:58:26,094 --> 00:58:31,274
Speaker 2: the campaign. Um So it's unclear, um, you know, there's

1183
00:58:31,284 --> 00:58:33,925
Speaker 2: a few other names being floated around, I think in

1184
00:58:33,935 --> 00:58:37,715
Speaker 2: some ways for him, it's a lot less relevant than

1185
00:58:37,725 --> 00:58:40,225
Speaker 2: it would be for Biden because I think the voter

1186
00:58:40,235 --> 00:58:41,645
Speaker 2: looks at Biden and says

1187
00:58:42,479 --> 00:58:46,340
Speaker 2: from a, from a um you know, perception point of view,

1188
00:58:46,350 --> 00:58:51,429
Speaker 2: user experience, Biden seems to be more frail um for

1189
00:58:51,439 --> 00:58:54,449
Speaker 2: right or for wrong. And so that BP pick is

1190
00:58:54,459 --> 00:58:58,639
Speaker 2: really important, whereas Trump is such a presence in his

1191
00:58:58,649 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 2: own right. And regardless of who the vice president is,

1192
00:59:02,050 --> 00:59:04,379
Speaker 2: we saw with Pence, he's gonna go his own way.

1193
00:59:04,389 --> 00:59:05,500
Speaker 2: He's gonna either,

1194
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:08,939
Speaker 2: you know, it, it's really uh such a light role

1195
00:59:08,949 --> 00:59:10,909
Speaker 2: uh in would be such a light role in a

1196
00:59:10,919 --> 00:59:13,780
Speaker 2: Trump presidency that, you know, who can he, you know,

1197
00:59:13,790 --> 00:59:16,500
Speaker 2: can you pick someone that's gonna bring over voters from the,

1198
00:59:16,510 --> 00:59:19,510
Speaker 2: from blue states, you know, potentially, but in terms of

1199
00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:21,739
Speaker 2: actually working in government,

1200
00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:24,979
Speaker 2: I it's not like that person's going to be getting

1201
00:59:25,139 --> 00:59:27,399
Speaker 2: a significant portfolio where they're going to be dragging something

1202
00:59:27,409 --> 00:59:28,939
Speaker 2: like we saw with Al Gore and Bill Clinton where

1203
00:59:28,949 --> 00:59:31,879
Speaker 2: Al Gore was given, you know, let's focus on, you know,

1204
00:59:31,889 --> 00:59:34,820
Speaker 2: climate change and esg issues and green transition and really

1205
00:59:34,830 --> 00:59:36,199
Speaker 2: take that around with it. We're not going to see

1206
00:59:36,209 --> 00:59:38,409
Speaker 2: that with a Trump presidency, I don't think. Yeah,

1207
00:59:38,419 --> 00:59:42,580
Speaker 1: that's unlikely. Well, this has been a true of force. Angela,

1208
00:59:42,590 --> 00:59:46,949
Speaker 1: very grateful for going through all these critical loads of

1209
00:59:46,959 --> 00:59:50,060
Speaker 1: global geopolitics with me over the last hour. Thank you

1210
00:59:50,070 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 1: so much for your time and insights.

1211
00:59:52,239 --> 00:59:54,629
Speaker 2: Great. Thanks, great to be here and uh looking forward

1212
00:59:54,639 --> 00:59:56,520
Speaker 2: to picking up the conversation again down the Road

1213
00:59:56,939 --> 01:00:00,129
Speaker 1: by all means. Uh Thanks to our listeners as well.

1214
01:00:00,290 --> 01:00:03,689
Speaker 1: Uh Copy Time was produced by Ken Delbridge at Sply Studios,

1215
01:00:03,750 --> 01:00:07,729
Speaker 1: Violet Lee and Daisy Sharma provided additional assistance. It is

1216
01:00:07,739 --> 01:00:11,260
Speaker 1: for information only and does not represent any trade recommendations.

1217
01:00:11,270 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 1: All 119 episodes of copy time are available on youtube

1218
01:00:15,090 --> 01:00:19,330
Speaker 1: and all all major podcast platforms including Apple, Google and Spotify.

1219
01:00:19,629 --> 01:00:22,500
Speaker 1: As for our research publications, webinars and live streams, you

1220
01:00:22,510 --> 01:00:25,489
Speaker 1: can find them all by Googling D BS Research Library.

1221
01:00:25,850 --> 01:00:26,969
Speaker 1: Have a great day.