WEBVTT - Kopi Time E140 - US Elections with Angela Mancini 0:00:05.940 --> 0:00:08.569 Welcome to Kobe Time, a podcast series on Markets and 0:00:08.579 --> 0:00:11.879 Economies from D BS Group Research. I'm Tambe, chief economist. 0:00:11.890 --> 0:00:16.509 Welcoming you to our 140th episode. Today's podcast is on 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:20.309 the US elections during our annual outlook event held on 0:00:20.319 --> 0:00:23.760 November the eighth. I discussed the implications of Donald Trump 0:00:23.770 --> 0:00:27.139 and the Republican Party's emphatic victory in the US elections 0:00:27.149 --> 0:00:30.959 with Angela Mancini partner at Control Risks. Link to our 0:00:30.969 --> 0:00:33.759 publication is in the show notes, here is a recording. 0:00:36.750 --> 0:00:37.598 Hi, good morning, 0:00:37.860 --> 0:00:40.720 good morning. And it's been quite the week, Angela and 0:00:40.729 --> 0:00:42.569 you're busy, but something happened this week. 0:00:42.580 --> 0:00:43.830 Yes, something happened, something 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:48.089 happened. So let's start by looking back. We had all 0:00:48.098 --> 0:00:50.500 these polls, we suggest that it was a neck and 0:00:50.509 --> 0:00:53.009 neck race. It wasn't at the end. 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:54.639 Explain. 0:00:54.950 --> 0:00:58.419 Yeah. So there's a couple of takeaways that we have here. 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:00.840 And first of all, I have to say so, so 0:01:00.849 --> 0:01:03.709 I work for control risk. We do political and regulatory 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:06.980 risk consulting. We also have a security practice. That practice 0:01:06.989 --> 0:01:09.389 was quite worried about unrest around the election. We heard 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:11.650 a lot of issues around, not just if it were 0:01:11.660 --> 0:01:14.419 to be a close contested race. But even in the 0:01:14.430 --> 0:01:16.830 mornings as the polls were opening, were we going to 0:01:16.839 --> 0:01:19.400 see voter intimidation, you know, who was going to come 0:01:19.410 --> 0:01:21.599 out to help watch the election, et cetera. 0:01:22.330 --> 0:01:24.809 Very few things happened. So that's a good thing. So 0:01:24.819 --> 0:01:27.120 my main takeaway is for the optimists in the group 0:01:27.129 --> 0:01:31.029 would definitely be the system worked. Very quiet. Election. In fact, 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:32.649 some of the news coverage that I was doing was 0:01:32.660 --> 0:01:35.039 cut back because there just wasn't that much to say. 0:01:35.050 --> 0:01:36.589 That's a good thing, right? System worked. 0:01:37.059 --> 0:01:38.919 So the other thing I'd say, what didn't work is 0:01:38.930 --> 0:01:42.569 the polls, right? So there was an infinite amount of 0:01:42.580 --> 0:01:45.230 data in the, in the weeks and days leading up 0:01:45.239 --> 0:01:48.430 of slicing all kinds of voter groups, right? From obviously 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:53.319 gender education class race also who moved from blue states 0:01:53.330 --> 0:01:57.000 to red states with COVID. What's happening with inflation, the 0:01:57.010 --> 0:01:59.480 impact of A I and the professional class, all of it. 0:02:00.010 --> 0:02:01.489 And at the end of the day, it didn't really 0:02:01.500 --> 0:02:05.230 matter what we saw as you've seen is the electorate shifted, 0:02:05.239 --> 0:02:07.650 it shifted right word. So there wasn't, you know, there's 0:02:07.660 --> 0:02:09.710 not a lot of pursing left to do. I think 0:02:09.809 --> 0:02:11.789 uh if, if you're aware of the name Alan Lichtman, 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:14.070 he's a famous historian and he's called nine out of 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:18.229 the 10. Now, now that the last 11 presidential races 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:21.520 correctly and he's got these 13 keys that he looks at, 0:02:21.619 --> 0:02:23.710 they didn't work. He was quite confident be hear us 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:26.229 his take away as I was mentioning was, you know, 0:02:26.250 --> 0:02:28.979 at some point, the math doesn't math anymore. 0:02:29.350 --> 0:02:32.369 And what I take from that is the electorate shifted. 0:02:32.380 --> 0:02:35.630 The zeitgeist has shifted. The main issues we saw voters 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:38.850 coming out with exit polls was clearly the economy, inflation. 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:41.580 And that's something people feel every day, even though the 0:02:41.589 --> 0:02:45.300 rate of inflation has uh slowed down, the cost of 0:02:45.309 --> 0:02:47.300 living stays high. So when you go to the grocery 0:02:47.309 --> 0:02:49.490 store every other day, when you go to the gas 0:02:49.500 --> 0:02:52.179 station every other day, you see that. So that's another issue. 0:02:52.190 --> 0:02:54.320 One thing to say, the other thing I'd point out 0:02:54.330 --> 0:02:56.610 that I haven't seen a lot of press on is 0:02:56.619 --> 0:03:00.258 job security increasingly in the professional class. 0:03:00.369 --> 0:03:04.470 I know people, lawyers, accountants, bankers, what have you maybe 0:03:04.479 --> 0:03:07.508 not bankers but you know, working in the marketing people 0:03:07.649 --> 0:03:11.138 that they're starting to have job loss, there's layoffs that 0:03:11.149 --> 0:03:12.690 are still going on in the corporate world and the 0:03:12.699 --> 0:03:16.089 impact of A I on that professional class, especially those 0:03:16.100 --> 0:03:19.070 in their forties and fifties in the States is, is concerning. 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:21.269 So I think there's a, a couple of trends there. 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:23.869 The last thing I'd say on the trends is a 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:26.649 lot of people said they're worried about democracy, but I 0:03:26.660 --> 0:03:28.429 think the mainstream media 0:03:28.979 --> 0:03:31.399 uh got confused of what that meant because people can 0:03:31.410 --> 0:03:34.279 mean different things by that, right? So a a democrat 0:03:34.288 --> 0:03:36.919 voter would say rule of law, you know, 0:03:37.740 --> 0:03:40.770 policy basically, right? What it means for, you know, women 0:03:40.779 --> 0:03:43.910 and minorities and things. But Republican voters, I think, felt 0:03:43.919 --> 0:03:47.648 like freedom to be free in their view to um 0:03:47.809 --> 0:03:49.910 go back to the way things were to do. Not 0:03:49.919 --> 0:03:52.589 have the government telling me what to do and all 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:55.130 the kind of culture war issues. So when some, I'd 0:03:55.139 --> 0:03:58.110 say a big message, I think the Democratic Party has 0:03:58.119 --> 0:04:01.429 a lot to think about. Uh I think the Republican 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:03.100 Party has also got a lot to think about because 0:04:03.110 --> 0:04:04.039 that will shift as well. 0:04:04.869 --> 0:04:10.009 Did the um external issues relationship with Russia or the 0:04:10.020 --> 0:04:12.699 war in Gaza? Did those things have much of an 0:04:12.710 --> 0:04:13.210 impact? 0:04:13.429 --> 0:04:16.010 There was some impact. I'd say, first of all, China, 0:04:16.019 --> 0:04:18.480 I'd say almost none because in the US, as we 0:04:18.488 --> 0:04:21.488 know it, it's a, it's the number one bipartisan issue. 0:04:21.500 --> 0:04:24.269 In fact, probably the only bipartisan issue is the feeling 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.010 that the US needs to restrict trade and, and um 0:04:27.070 --> 0:04:30.488 you know, increase competition with China. Uh Ukraine, I don't 0:04:30.500 --> 0:04:31.969 think had that big of an impact. 0:04:32.380 --> 0:04:34.820 There's a, there, it'd be interesting to see how policy 0:04:34.829 --> 0:04:39.359 gets shaped going forward because there are fractions within the 0:04:39.369 --> 0:04:42.720 Republican Party about how much one should support Ukraine. Some 0:04:42.730 --> 0:04:45.760 say we should, you know, stop passing the money, we 0:04:45.769 --> 0:04:47.980 need to spend that money at home. Others would say 0:04:48.049 --> 0:04:51.190 Russia since the Cold beginning of the Cold War has 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:54.099 been uh you know, a geopolitical enemy. How could we 0:04:54.109 --> 0:04:56.659 ever just let them take it? You know, there would 0:04:56.670 --> 0:05:00.299 be an, um, uh, foreign policy disaster akin to withdrawing 0:05:00.309 --> 0:05:01.599 from Afghanistan. Right. 0:05:02.178 --> 0:05:04.279 So there's fractions there. But I don't think that really 0:05:04.290 --> 0:05:06.920 came into play. I do think the issue in Gaza 0:05:07.059 --> 0:05:09.549 was more significant. What was interesting though is if you 0:05:09.559 --> 0:05:13.368 look at the Michigan vote, so Michigan Dearborn, Michigan has 0:05:13.380 --> 0:05:15.609 a lot of, uh, I think 200,000 or so Arab 0:05:15.619 --> 0:05:19.868 American voters and they went Republican. So that's an interesting statistic. 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:21.940 So I think there's at play the issue of, 0:05:22.410 --> 0:05:25.268 are you voting? Because you're, you're unhappy with how the 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:28.269 Biden administration has prosecuted the war. Are you also voting 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:31.149 in your pocket because you're, you know, working for a union. 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:34.609 How do these things go? There's, there's multiple layers per 0:05:34.619 --> 0:05:37.149 voter is, I guess what I would take away from 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:37.369 that 0:05:37.459 --> 0:05:40.130 right now, Angela, it was not just a presidential election. 0:05:40.140 --> 0:05:42.308 We had elections on the Senate on the House, a 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:46.649 whole bunch of local legislative bodies. Was this a national election? 0:05:46.660 --> 0:05:48.570 And Trump just pulls everything red? 0:05:49.579 --> 0:05:52.709 I don't think so. I think clearly there was uh 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:54.839 you know, when you go to the polls, you vote 0:05:54.850 --> 0:05:57.320 president and you usually vote down ballot. But I do 0:05:57.329 --> 0:06:00.479 think that there was a shift in the mentality of 0:06:00.488 --> 0:06:02.380 the electorate. But you did see some wonders if you 0:06:02.390 --> 0:06:04.940 look like if you look at Alyssa Slotkin who's actually a, 0:06:04.950 --> 0:06:08.010 a friend of mine. So Alyssa Slotkin is a democrat. 0:06:08.100 --> 0:06:12.200 She was a congresswoman in Michigan running for a senate seat. 0:06:12.209 --> 0:06:14.600 Highly contested. She won it by a hair, I think 0:06:14.609 --> 0:06:16.470 she won by like 5000 votes or something. 0:06:16.690 --> 0:06:19.630 So, what I take from that is indeed, there's been 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:22.480 a shift in the electorate in what the values are 0:06:22.488 --> 0:06:25.000 potentially in the States and what people worried about, really 0:06:25.010 --> 0:06:27.190 worried about their jobs and inflation. 0:06:27.420 --> 0:06:30.429 But if you look at a um uh a candidate 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:33.500 like Alyssa, she's out every day, all day doing the 0:06:33.510 --> 0:06:37.070 policy work. So the user experience of her is very 0:06:37.079 --> 0:06:41.200 different from maybe some politicians who, you know, quote data 0:06:41.220 --> 0:06:44.450 and the the famous uh criticism of the Democratic Party is, 0:06:44.529 --> 0:06:46.049 you know, I don't want, you know, you tell us 0:06:46.059 --> 0:06:48.399 about how the statistics are looking good in a certain place, 0:06:48.410 --> 0:06:50.440 but our lived experience is different, right? 0:06:50.970 --> 0:06:54.260 So I think in some, I'd say he did pull 0:06:54.269 --> 0:06:57.829 the voting right word, but it was going there anyway. And, 0:06:57.839 --> 0:06:59.988 you know, if you go anywhere outside the urban cities, 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:01.910 you could kind of feel things were changing. 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:03.940 Oh, no, I, I certainly felt that I was in 0:07:03.950 --> 0:07:05.820 the US two weeks ago and I wrote to my 0:07:05.829 --> 0:07:08.299 team uh while I was there, I think I asked 0:07:08.309 --> 0:07:11.829 about 50 people between San Francisco DC and New York 0:07:11.950 --> 0:07:14.429 and 46 told me that Trump was going to win. 0:07:14.809 --> 0:07:16.779 I really was hoping that they were wrong but of 0:07:16.790 --> 0:07:17.670 course they knew better. 0:07:17.890 --> 0:07:20.709 Um house. Is it going to go red as 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:22.679 well? It's probably gonna go red. So I was just 0:07:22.690 --> 0:07:25.779 checking as right before um we started this morning. It's 0:07:25.790 --> 0:07:28.529 still not called, we still got something like um I 0:07:28.540 --> 0:07:32.019 think 28 seats to 27 seats, they still have to call, 0:07:32.029 --> 0:07:34.149 but the Democrats would have to win 21 of those. 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:36.630 So from a trend perspective, that's not gonna happen. I mean, 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.269 the statistic that I took away from the election morning, 0:07:39.279 --> 0:07:41.570 I was heading in to do an interview uh early 0:07:41.579 --> 0:07:44.470 in the morning and I heard on the radio that Georgia, 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:45.950 which is a big swing state, 0:07:46.399 --> 0:07:50.790 30% of that electorate is independent. And when Biden and 0:07:50.799 --> 0:07:54.049 Trump ran last time, it was plus eight for Biden 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:57.630 this time, it was trending plus 11 for Trump. So 0:07:57.640 --> 0:07:59.549 to me, I thought, ok, well, that's it. So again, 0:07:59.559 --> 0:08:01.809 I think there's underlying trends there to look at, but 0:08:01.820 --> 0:08:04.350 with the House for sure, it'll go Republican. So we'll 0:08:04.359 --> 0:08:06.829 have a clean sweep on the Republican side. 0:08:07.529 --> 0:08:12.458 So economic issues mattered a lot. Democracy in danger was 0:08:12.470 --> 0:08:16.239 a theme. But the fact that Trump is a convicted felon, 0:08:16.420 --> 0:08:19.579 the fact that, you know, he was impeached or all 0:08:19.589 --> 0:08:22.679 the other, you know, not so pleasant things that he 0:08:22.690 --> 0:08:25.190 says had not much of an impact. I mean, he 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:26.399 is getting the popular vote as 0:08:26.410 --> 0:08:26.779 well. 0:08:27.089 --> 0:08:28.880 He is getting the popular vote. So a couple of 0:08:28.890 --> 0:08:31.170 things I'd say to unpick that because that's definitely, I 0:08:31.179 --> 0:08:33.289 think the big takeaway, I'd say a couple of things. 0:08:33.299 --> 0:08:35.909 Number one, interestingly, voter turnout is down. 0:08:36.299 --> 0:08:38.859 So it was 68% last time. It's a shameful. It's 0:08:38.869 --> 0:08:43.218 not higher. 64% this time. People are saying, oh, Kamala got, 0:08:43.229 --> 0:08:46.147 you know, 11 million less votes than Biden did, but 0:08:46.158 --> 0:08:49.359 she got 83 or four more than Hillary, right? So 0:08:49.369 --> 0:08:50.968 there's a lot of kind of data within there. But 0:08:50.979 --> 0:08:51.439 I think, 0:08:52.090 --> 0:08:55.169 you know, and some might say we're seeing the electorate shift. 0:08:55.349 --> 0:08:57.559 I don't know that it's values so much that are 0:08:57.570 --> 0:08:59.729 shifting again as people's just pain in the pocket. I mean, 0:08:59.739 --> 0:09:03.228 it's interesting listening to your optimistic presentation about the States 0:09:03.239 --> 0:09:06.359 because it'll, I'm now watching. Uh I hate to be 0:09:06.369 --> 0:09:08.419 the person that says that elections over. Let's turn to 0:09:08.429 --> 0:09:10.630 the next one the same day. But I do think 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:13.020 it's interesting to watch what will happen with the midterms 0:09:13.070 --> 0:09:15.219 because if you look at the from the policy making 0:09:15.229 --> 0:09:16.030 perspective now 0:09:16.284 --> 0:09:19.565 republicans have everything. So it's like, ok, you wanted it, 0:09:19.684 --> 0:09:21.655 you have it, let's see what you do. And I 0:09:21.664 --> 0:09:25.603 don't think we have a Trump now that's coming into power, furious. 0:09:25.614 --> 0:09:28.085 We don't have a Trump that's coming into power wanting 0:09:28.094 --> 0:09:30.414 to break a lot of things because he just barely 0:09:30.424 --> 0:09:32.625 got there and he had to, you know, rally the 0:09:32.635 --> 0:09:34.885 troops to get there. He is kind of an open field. 0:09:34.895 --> 0:09:37.414 He's quite jubilant is the words that we're hearing described. 0:09:37.424 --> 0:09:40.025 So what, what is that policy making look like 0:09:40.549 --> 0:09:43.728 in that regard? And then what's the impact of that? 0:09:43.739 --> 0:09:45.469 What are the outcomes as we go into the next 0:09:45.479 --> 0:09:46.280 couple of years? 0:09:46.299 --> 0:09:46.530 Are 0:09:46.539 --> 0:09:49.059 you trying to suggest that we will see like no 0:09:49.070 --> 0:09:52.739 daily tweet storm and it won't be that. No, 0:09:52.750 --> 0:09:55.210 I'm I'm trying to be optimistic. I think it's gonna 0:09:55.219 --> 0:10:00.098 be very, very, very chaotic also because you remember his 0:10:00.109 --> 0:10:03.348 advisor last time were more establishment people and, and now 0:10:03.359 --> 0:10:04.679 that's not going to be the case. We don't know 0:10:04.690 --> 0:10:06.219 really exactly who's gonna come in. 0:10:06.650 --> 0:10:08.309 I think it's gonna be volatile. But what I take 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:11.469 from it, which is interesting is imagine if he had 0:10:11.479 --> 0:10:13.950 run a bit more of a conventional campaign which he 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:16.609 was doing until the end towards the end when he 0:10:16.619 --> 0:10:18.830 started making comments about Kamala and he had the comic 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:21.070 on stage that said the racist things about Puerto Rico, 0:10:21.900 --> 0:10:24.359 which we heard him say, maybe he did that because 0:10:24.369 --> 0:10:26.440 he thought things were too kind of stale. But if 0:10:26.450 --> 0:10:28.460 he had run a more conventional campaign and if he 0:10:28.469 --> 0:10:32.569 dialed down that rhetoric, imagine the gap that it would 0:10:32.580 --> 0:10:36.919 have been right? And Kamala had record breaking money, record breaking, 0:10:36.929 --> 0:10:40.270 get out the vote efforts, very, very professional and organized 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:42.869 best we've ever seen. And we still had this shift. 0:10:43.190 --> 0:10:45.799 So imagine if she hadn't been quite so organized and 0:10:45.809 --> 0:10:48.320 he had been a little calmer. It tells me 0:10:48.659 --> 0:10:52.289 the electorate has shifted but then it starts looking at, 0:10:52.299 --> 0:10:54.770 to me it becomes shifting to what, in terms of 0:10:54.780 --> 0:10:57.840 policy and, and what's actually fixable and what's not. But 0:10:57.849 --> 0:10:59.890 it will definitely, I think, be more volatile from a 0:10:59.900 --> 0:11:01.440 domestic side and a foreign policy 0:11:01.450 --> 0:11:01.869 side. 0:11:02.169 --> 0:11:04.390 Where do the Democrats go from here? 0:11:04.739 --> 0:11:08.770 I think what I'd like to see is uh a 0:11:08.780 --> 0:11:11.280 real step back and think about, 0:11:11.719 --> 0:11:15.319 forget about the party politics and whatnot. This is, of course, ideal, 0:11:15.330 --> 0:11:17.239 I don't know that they're gonna do this. But ideally 0:11:17.250 --> 0:11:19.239 I think what they should do is take a step 0:11:19.250 --> 0:11:22.959 back and say, where is the US voter now? Get 0:11:22.969 --> 0:11:24.289 back in touch with them and you can have a 0:11:24.299 --> 0:11:27.590 conversation about policy, you know, do things that are closer to, 0:11:27.599 --> 0:11:29.559 you know, supporting the unions and the working class, which 0:11:29.570 --> 0:11:31.919 actually to be fair, I think Biden did. But that 0:11:31.929 --> 0:11:34.890 feels like things on paper. I think what they need 0:11:34.900 --> 0:11:36.478 to do is have the connection 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:40.000 with a broader voter base and understand some of the 0:11:40.010 --> 0:11:42.380 cultural issues a bit better and really tap into that 0:11:42.390 --> 0:11:45.218 a bit better. The message. Absolutely. As we saw, fell flat, 0:11:45.650 --> 0:11:47.968 what I am seeing unfortunately, at least in these first 0:11:47.979 --> 0:11:51.140 day or so is a lot of, uh you know, 0:11:51.150 --> 0:11:52.820 you did it. No, you did it. No, you did. It. 0:11:52.830 --> 0:11:55.640 We're blaming Biden. We're blaming, blaming his wife. We're blaming, 0:11:55.830 --> 0:11:59.589 um K Kamala. We're blaming her advisers. When actually it's, 0:11:59.599 --> 0:12:01.880 to me it's too big of a gap to be 0:12:01.890 --> 0:12:05.659 a flaw in the actual campaign prosecution or the, 0:12:05.950 --> 0:12:08.929 even the candidate. I just think the values have shifted 0:12:08.940 --> 0:12:10.959 the issues that matter to voters are different than they 0:12:10.969 --> 0:12:11.608 thought they were. 0:12:12.270 --> 0:12:16.469 Immigration tax cut tariffs all on the cards, 0:12:16.479 --> 0:12:19.169 all on the cards. I think we're getting a lot. 0:12:19.179 --> 0:12:21.849 So we work for 80% of the Fortune 500. We, 0:12:21.859 --> 0:12:23.989 as you can imagine, be getting heaps of calls around. 0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:25.869 Oh my gosh. What do we do? In fact, we've 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.250 been scenario planning for months on, for both sides. I 0:12:29.260 --> 0:12:32.319 think the thing to, to look at is so number one, 0:12:32.330 --> 0:12:34.979 I think what he'll do is what he did last time, 0:12:34.989 --> 0:12:36.369 which is, uh, you know, he has a day one 0:12:36.380 --> 0:12:39.890 package that'll probably include an executive order that says freeze 0:12:39.900 --> 0:12:41.869 everything until we review it. That's fair. 0:12:42.739 --> 0:12:45.348 We may see some things around immigration on day one. Like, 0:12:45.359 --> 0:12:48.450 you know, we saw some quite striking things before, but 0:12:48.599 --> 0:12:51.090 I do still think it's early days. There's a lot 0:12:51.099 --> 0:12:52.940 of jockeys. So first of all, they had, they don't 0:12:52.950 --> 0:12:55.489 know even with the Senate how big that majority is 0:12:55.500 --> 0:12:57.229 going to be. There's still some Senate races to call. 0:12:57.239 --> 0:12:59.159 So the question, you know, once we have all the 0:12:59.169 --> 0:13:02.080 numbers around the races, we'll understand how big is your 0:13:02.090 --> 0:13:05.700 Senate majority? How big is your house majority? They're starting 0:13:05.710 --> 0:13:07.960 to think about who's gonna be the senate majority leader 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:11.489 Mitch mcconnell's retiring. I was reading this morning there was 0:13:11.500 --> 0:13:13.659 a kind of a jockeying between the three people that 0:13:13.979 --> 0:13:16.289 should have that and are close to Trump and want that, 0:13:16.299 --> 0:13:18.849 you know, who is that and who starts getting on 0:13:18.859 --> 0:13:23.030 those really powerful house committees like the Appropriations Committee, the 0:13:23.039 --> 0:13:25.409 Ways and Means Committee. So it really matters. I think, 0:13:25.609 --> 0:13:28.080 not just who he's putting in his cabinet and as advisers, 0:13:28.090 --> 0:13:31.820 but how those the workings of government shape up and 0:13:31.830 --> 0:13:35.140 I've done a bit of dusting off of education around. How, 0:13:35.215 --> 0:13:37.265 how does the law actually work. So if you look 0:13:37.275 --> 0:13:40.844 at something like NATO, there's been legislation passed recently last 0:13:40.854 --> 0:13:45.554 December to more um formalize the US, uh you know, 0:13:45.565 --> 0:13:48.885 uh any interaction with or, or, or, you know, belonging 0:13:48.895 --> 0:13:50.674 to NATO. So you can't just walk in and do 0:13:50.684 --> 0:13:52.755 an executive order and rip it up, so to speak. 0:13:53.500 --> 0:13:56.599 It's different for Ukraine, you know, there's funding that we 0:13:56.609 --> 0:13:59.020 give but the Americans give but that can be stopped. 0:13:59.030 --> 0:13:59.599 So I think 0:14:00.299 --> 0:14:03.348 it's gonna be really interesting to see what the workings 0:14:03.359 --> 0:14:06.679 of government actually allow in a situation where you have 0:14:06.690 --> 0:14:10.140 a completely dominant party and what they don't because it's 0:14:10.150 --> 0:14:11.919 gonna be different, you know, they kind of, they put 0:14:11.929 --> 0:14:15.570 some things in place to stop uh to, to reduce 0:14:15.580 --> 0:14:17.689 the ability for one person to come in and change 0:14:17.700 --> 0:14:20.219 everything overnight. Risking takes some time to figure 0:14:20.229 --> 0:14:20.520 out. 0:14:20.729 --> 0:14:23.510 But speaking of one person, Elon Musk is pretty popular 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:26.729 and uh p powerful, like popular. I don't know, I mean, powerful. Uh, 0:14:26.739 --> 0:14:29.739 he went all in with Trump and it worked out 0:14:29.750 --> 0:14:30.190 for him. 0:14:30.510 --> 0:14:34.210 Um, in the past, Angela, the Republican party has been 0:14:34.219 --> 0:14:36.690 the party of big corporations. We see a bit of 0:14:36.700 --> 0:14:39.510 a bifurcation Now we see some tech bros, Elon Musk, 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.809 the Winklevoss brothers, Peter Theo, they have been big funders 0:14:42.820 --> 0:14:45.559 of Trump, but the rest of the corporate world still 0:14:45.570 --> 0:14:48.289 seems to be either mainstream Republican or Democrat. 0:14:48.559 --> 0:14:51.739 So, is the Republican party a party of big corporations 0:14:51.750 --> 0:14:52.369 no more? 0:14:52.489 --> 0:14:55.890 Well, it's interesting that you say that I think that 0:14:55.900 --> 0:14:59.039 was also my impression, but in recent days and weeks 0:14:59.049 --> 0:15:01.450 as we've been going out and talking to clients, there 0:15:01.460 --> 0:15:04.659 are quite a lot of big corporations that are more 0:15:04.669 --> 0:15:08.460 supportive of that America first agenda than you might see, especially, 0:15:08.469 --> 0:15:10.479 you know, kind of looking at it from over here. 0:15:10.510 --> 0:15:12.859 So I think it's a bit of a mix. Um 0:15:13.799 --> 0:15:16.179 what I, what I'm watching for and, you know, you're 0:15:16.190 --> 0:15:18.669 the economist and, and a lot of really smart people 0:15:18.679 --> 0:15:22.219 watching finance in this room. I'm really watching for, ok, 0:15:22.229 --> 0:15:25.250 he's got the stage now. He's got everything he has 0:15:25.260 --> 0:15:27.409 nothing to prove in terms of the election. He won 0:15:27.419 --> 0:15:30.119 it by a large margin. He's a lame duck president. 0:15:30.130 --> 0:15:31.789 No more elections to be had. So he can kind 0:15:31.799 --> 0:15:35.090 of like rest for a second and say, what do 0:15:35.099 --> 0:15:37.780 I actually want to accomplish? He does have an agenda. 0:15:37.789 --> 0:15:41.099 It's called Agenda 47. It's 14 pages. It's not long. 0:15:41.479 --> 0:15:43.770 Um So there's not a lot of policy detail there, 0:15:44.359 --> 0:15:46.780 but what's he gonna actually do? And at some point, 0:15:46.919 --> 0:15:49.340 does he take the ear more of 0:15:49.969 --> 0:15:54.400 the more um bombastic advisor he's had before on trade 0:15:54.409 --> 0:15:57.070 and economic policy or does he start talking to more 0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.619 traditional economists that are, you know, we've seen the statistics 0:15:59.630 --> 0:16:02.130 that say if everything he said he wanted to do, 0:16:02.140 --> 0:16:05.150 the high tariffs went into place very damaging for the 0:16:05.159 --> 0:16:08.239 US economy, very damaging for the global economy. Is he 0:16:08.250 --> 0:16:09.989 going to actually do it? I mean, let's see if 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:14.510 he gets some advisers around him that can um 0:16:15.349 --> 0:16:17.940 maybe help him moderate some of that policy. So in some, 0:16:17.950 --> 0:16:18.570 I'd say 0:16:19.429 --> 0:16:20.700 the Republican Party 0:16:21.710 --> 0:16:26.390 still is uh supporting, you know, representing big business, but 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:28.909 even something like the business leaders round table has come 0:16:28.919 --> 0:16:31.000 out and said they, you know, have had big concerns. 0:16:31.010 --> 0:16:33.059 So in some, I'd say it's a mix but it's 0:16:33.070 --> 0:16:36.090 not just he's got the tech and the crypto people 0:16:36.099 --> 0:16:38.369 and none of big business it's really overlapped. 0:16:39.210 --> 0:16:42.409 Could he under a scenario that you can think of? 0:16:42.419 --> 0:16:44.559 And maybe you can assign a probability to that step 0:16:44.570 --> 0:16:47.119 down in two years and give the presidency to JD Vance. 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:53.309 So that's an interesting uh an interesting proposition, I think 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:53.390 uh 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:58.489 overall, I'd say that's unlikely. But remember he's not a 0:16:58.500 --> 0:16:59.260 young man, 0:16:59.330 --> 0:16:59.950 he'll be in two 0:16:59.989 --> 0:17:02.250 years time. And actually, what's interesting is one of the 0:17:02.260 --> 0:17:04.409 top risks that we're trending as control risks in the 0:17:04.420 --> 0:17:05.920 years ahead is if you look at first of all, 0:17:05.930 --> 0:17:07.670 as we know, this was the year of the election globally. 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:09.609 If you take a step back a second year of 0:17:09.619 --> 0:17:12.739 the election globally, almost all of those from Japan and 0:17:12.843 --> 0:17:15.874 India to France and the UK change elections. So what 0:17:15.884 --> 0:17:18.604 we're seeing in the States is actually not that different. Also, 0:17:18.614 --> 0:17:21.423 if you look at the countries with the 10 biggest populations, 0:17:21.433 --> 0:17:24.634 almost all of them have leaders that are well north 0:17:24.644 --> 0:17:28.863 of 75 Russia, you can name them all off. So 0:17:28.913 --> 0:17:31.263 does he step down in two years? What's his health like? 0:17:31.900 --> 0:17:34.020 What's his mental ability? Like, I mean, one thing is 0:17:34.030 --> 0:17:36.359 stepping down another might be just a step kind of 0:17:36.369 --> 0:17:39.280 a little bit back like Reagan did, I don't know 0:17:39.290 --> 0:17:42.379 that he'd be keen to relinquish it, but also I 0:17:42.390 --> 0:17:44.739 don't think he's that keen to govern. He was keen 0:17:44.750 --> 0:17:47.040 to prove a point and get in. He feels passionate 0:17:47.050 --> 0:17:50.280 about tariffs, he feels passionate about China and he feels, 0:17:50.290 --> 0:17:51.438 I think passionate about, 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:55.069 you know, domestic policy that might um push back a 0:17:55.079 --> 0:17:57.599 vengeance as they say right on some of the people 0:17:57.609 --> 0:17:59.780 that he thought blocked him before. I don't think he, 0:17:59.790 --> 0:18:02.520 you know, this isn't, uh, a Joe Biden or Bill Clinton. 0:18:02.530 --> 0:18:04.448 That's like I just want to get into that policy 0:18:04.459 --> 0:18:07.300 and really tweak what, you know, what we're actually doing 0:18:07.310 --> 0:18:09.219 from a legislative point of view. So he may, 0:18:10.109 --> 0:18:11.869 it was a scenario if he gets tired and, or 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.650 bored or, and, or, and, or unhealthy, but I think 0:18:14.660 --> 0:18:16.688 it would take a lot for him to formally step down, 0:18:16.699 --> 0:18:19.400