1 00:00:05,940 --> 00:00:08,569 Speaker 1: Welcome to Kobe Time, a podcast series on Markets and 2 00:00:08,579 --> 00:00:11,879 Speaker 1: Economies from D BS Group Research. I'm Tambe, chief economist. 3 00:00:11,890 --> 00:00:16,509 Speaker 1: Welcoming you to our 140th episode. Today's podcast is on 4 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,309 Speaker 1: the US elections during our annual outlook event held on 5 00:00:20,319 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: November the eighth. I discussed the implications of Donald Trump 6 00:00:23,770 --> 00:00:27,139 Speaker 1: and the Republican Party's emphatic victory in the US elections 7 00:00:27,149 --> 00:00:30,959 Speaker 1: with Angela Mancini partner at Control Risks. Link to our 8 00:00:30,969 --> 00:00:33,759 Speaker 1: publication is in the show notes, here is a recording. 9 00:00:36,750 --> 00:00:37,598 Speaker 2: Hi, good morning, 10 00:00:37,860 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 1: good morning. And it's been quite the week, Angela and 11 00:00:40,729 --> 00:00:42,569 Speaker 2: you're busy, but something happened this week. 12 00:00:42,580 --> 00:00:43,830 Speaker 1: Yes, something happened, something 13 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:48,089 Speaker 1: happened. So let's start by looking back. We had all 14 00:00:48,098 --> 00:00:50,500 Speaker 1: these polls, we suggest that it was a neck and 15 00:00:50,509 --> 00:00:53,009 Speaker 1: neck race. It wasn't at the end. 16 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:54,639 Speaker 1: Explain. 17 00:00:54,950 --> 00:00:58,419 Speaker 2: Yeah. So there's a couple of takeaways that we have here. 18 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 2: And first of all, I have to say so, so 19 00:01:00,849 --> 00:01:03,709 Speaker 2: I work for control risk. We do political and regulatory 20 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,980 Speaker 2: risk consulting. We also have a security practice. That practice 21 00:01:06,989 --> 00:01:09,389 Speaker 2: was quite worried about unrest around the election. We heard 22 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:11,650 Speaker 2: a lot of issues around, not just if it were 23 00:01:11,660 --> 00:01:14,419 Speaker 2: to be a close contested race. But even in the 24 00:01:14,430 --> 00:01:16,830 Speaker 2: mornings as the polls were opening, were we going to 25 00:01:16,839 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 2: see voter intimidation, you know, who was going to come 26 00:01:19,410 --> 00:01:21,599 Speaker 2: out to help watch the election, et cetera. 27 00:01:22,330 --> 00:01:24,809 Speaker 2: Very few things happened. So that's a good thing. So 28 00:01:24,819 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 2: my main takeaway is for the optimists in the group 29 00:01:27,129 --> 00:01:31,029 Speaker 2: would definitely be the system worked. Very quiet. Election. In fact, 30 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:32,649 Speaker 2: some of the news coverage that I was doing was 31 00:01:32,660 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 2: cut back because there just wasn't that much to say. 32 00:01:35,050 --> 00:01:36,589 Speaker 2: That's a good thing, right? System worked. 33 00:01:37,059 --> 00:01:38,919 Speaker 2: So the other thing I'd say, what didn't work is 34 00:01:38,930 --> 00:01:42,569 Speaker 2: the polls, right? So there was an infinite amount of 35 00:01:42,580 --> 00:01:45,230 Speaker 2: data in the, in the weeks and days leading up 36 00:01:45,239 --> 00:01:48,430 Speaker 2: of slicing all kinds of voter groups, right? From obviously 37 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:53,319 Speaker 2: gender education class race also who moved from blue states 38 00:01:53,330 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 2: to red states with COVID. What's happening with inflation, the 39 00:01:57,010 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 2: impact of A I and the professional class, all of it. 40 00:02:00,010 --> 00:02:01,489 Speaker 2: And at the end of the day, it didn't really 41 00:02:01,500 --> 00:02:05,230 Speaker 2: matter what we saw as you've seen is the electorate shifted, 42 00:02:05,239 --> 00:02:07,650 Speaker 2: it shifted right word. So there wasn't, you know, there's 43 00:02:07,660 --> 00:02:09,710 Speaker 2: not a lot of pursing left to do. I think 44 00:02:09,809 --> 00:02:11,789 Speaker 2: uh if, if you're aware of the name Alan Lichtman, 45 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,070 Speaker 2: he's a famous historian and he's called nine out of 46 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:18,229 Speaker 2: the 10. Now, now that the last 11 presidential races 47 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 2: correctly and he's got these 13 keys that he looks at, 48 00:02:21,619 --> 00:02:23,710 Speaker 2: they didn't work. He was quite confident be hear us 49 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,229 Speaker 2: his take away as I was mentioning was, you know, 50 00:02:26,250 --> 00:02:28,979 Speaker 2: at some point, the math doesn't math anymore. 51 00:02:29,350 --> 00:02:32,369 Speaker 2: And what I take from that is the electorate shifted. 52 00:02:32,380 --> 00:02:35,630 Speaker 2: The zeitgeist has shifted. The main issues we saw voters 53 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,850 Speaker 2: coming out with exit polls was clearly the economy, inflation. 54 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,580 Speaker 2: And that's something people feel every day, even though the 55 00:02:41,589 --> 00:02:45,300 Speaker 2: rate of inflation has uh slowed down, the cost of 56 00:02:45,309 --> 00:02:47,300 Speaker 2: living stays high. So when you go to the grocery 57 00:02:47,309 --> 00:02:49,490 Speaker 2: store every other day, when you go to the gas 58 00:02:49,500 --> 00:02:52,179 Speaker 2: station every other day, you see that. So that's another issue. 59 00:02:52,190 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 2: One thing to say, the other thing I'd point out 60 00:02:54,330 --> 00:02:56,610 Speaker 2: that I haven't seen a lot of press on is 61 00:02:56,619 --> 00:03:00,258 Speaker 2: job security increasingly in the professional class. 62 00:03:00,369 --> 00:03:04,470 Speaker 2: I know people, lawyers, accountants, bankers, what have you maybe 63 00:03:04,479 --> 00:03:07,508 Speaker 2: not bankers but you know, working in the marketing people 64 00:03:07,649 --> 00:03:11,138 Speaker 2: that they're starting to have job loss, there's layoffs that 65 00:03:11,149 --> 00:03:12,690 Speaker 2: are still going on in the corporate world and the 66 00:03:12,699 --> 00:03:16,089 Speaker 2: impact of A I on that professional class, especially those 67 00:03:16,100 --> 00:03:19,070 Speaker 2: in their forties and fifties in the States is, is concerning. 68 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,269 Speaker 2: So I think there's a, a couple of trends there. 69 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:23,869 Speaker 2: The last thing I'd say on the trends is a 70 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,649 Speaker 2: lot of people said they're worried about democracy, but I 71 00:03:26,660 --> 00:03:28,429 Speaker 2: think the mainstream media 72 00:03:28,979 --> 00:03:31,399 Speaker 2: uh got confused of what that meant because people can 73 00:03:31,410 --> 00:03:34,279 Speaker 2: mean different things by that, right? So a a democrat 74 00:03:34,288 --> 00:03:36,919 Speaker 2: voter would say rule of law, you know, 75 00:03:37,740 --> 00:03:40,770 Speaker 2: policy basically, right? What it means for, you know, women 76 00:03:40,779 --> 00:03:43,910 Speaker 2: and minorities and things. But Republican voters, I think, felt 77 00:03:43,919 --> 00:03:47,648 Speaker 2: like freedom to be free in their view to um 78 00:03:47,809 --> 00:03:49,910 Speaker 2: go back to the way things were to do. Not 79 00:03:49,919 --> 00:03:52,589 Speaker 2: have the government telling me what to do and all 80 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,130 Speaker 2: the kind of culture war issues. So when some, I'd 81 00:03:55,139 --> 00:03:58,110 Speaker 2: say a big message, I think the Democratic Party has 82 00:03:58,119 --> 00:04:01,429 Speaker 2: a lot to think about. Uh I think the Republican 83 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,100 Speaker 2: Party has also got a lot to think about because 84 00:04:03,110 --> 00:04:04,039 Speaker 2: that will shift as well. 85 00:04:04,869 --> 00:04:10,009 Speaker 1: Did the um external issues relationship with Russia or the 86 00:04:10,020 --> 00:04:12,699 Speaker 1: war in Gaza? Did those things have much of an 87 00:04:12,710 --> 00:04:13,210 Speaker 1: impact? 88 00:04:13,429 --> 00:04:16,010 Speaker 2: There was some impact. I'd say, first of all, China, 89 00:04:16,019 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 2: I'd say almost none because in the US, as we 90 00:04:18,488 --> 00:04:21,488 Speaker 2: know it, it's a, it's the number one bipartisan issue. 91 00:04:21,500 --> 00:04:24,269 Speaker 2: In fact, probably the only bipartisan issue is the feeling 92 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,010 Speaker 2: that the US needs to restrict trade and, and um 93 00:04:27,070 --> 00:04:30,488 Speaker 2: you know, increase competition with China. Uh Ukraine, I don't 94 00:04:30,500 --> 00:04:31,969 Speaker 2: think had that big of an impact. 95 00:04:32,380 --> 00:04:34,820 Speaker 2: There's a, there, it'd be interesting to see how policy 96 00:04:34,829 --> 00:04:39,359 Speaker 2: gets shaped going forward because there are fractions within the 97 00:04:39,369 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 2: Republican Party about how much one should support Ukraine. Some 98 00:04:42,730 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 2: say we should, you know, stop passing the money, we 99 00:04:45,769 --> 00:04:47,980 Speaker 2: need to spend that money at home. Others would say 100 00:04:48,049 --> 00:04:51,190 Speaker 2: Russia since the Cold beginning of the Cold War has 101 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,099 Speaker 2: been uh you know, a geopolitical enemy. How could we 102 00:04:54,109 --> 00:04:56,659 Speaker 2: ever just let them take it? You know, there would 103 00:04:56,670 --> 00:05:00,299 Speaker 2: be an, um, uh, foreign policy disaster akin to withdrawing 104 00:05:00,309 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 2: from Afghanistan. Right. 105 00:05:02,178 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 2: So there's fractions there. But I don't think that really 106 00:05:04,290 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 2: came into play. I do think the issue in Gaza 107 00:05:07,059 --> 00:05:09,549 Speaker 2: was more significant. What was interesting though is if you 108 00:05:09,559 --> 00:05:13,368 Speaker 2: look at the Michigan vote, so Michigan Dearborn, Michigan has 109 00:05:13,380 --> 00:05:15,609 Speaker 2: a lot of, uh, I think 200,000 or so Arab 110 00:05:15,619 --> 00:05:19,868 Speaker 2: American voters and they went Republican. So that's an interesting statistic. 111 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:21,940 Speaker 2: So I think there's at play the issue of, 112 00:05:22,410 --> 00:05:25,268 Speaker 2: are you voting? Because you're, you're unhappy with how the 113 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,269 Speaker 2: Biden administration has prosecuted the war. Are you also voting 114 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:31,149 Speaker 2: in your pocket because you're, you know, working for a union. 115 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:34,609 Speaker 2: How do these things go? There's, there's multiple layers per 116 00:05:34,619 --> 00:05:37,149 Speaker 2: voter is, I guess what I would take away from 117 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:37,369 Speaker 2: that 118 00:05:37,459 --> 00:05:40,130 Speaker 1: right now, Angela, it was not just a presidential election. 119 00:05:40,140 --> 00:05:42,308 Speaker 1: We had elections on the Senate on the House, a 120 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:46,649 Speaker 1: whole bunch of local legislative bodies. Was this a national election? 121 00:05:46,660 --> 00:05:48,570 Speaker 1: And Trump just pulls everything red? 122 00:05:49,579 --> 00:05:52,709 Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think clearly there was uh 123 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 2: you know, when you go to the polls, you vote 124 00:05:54,850 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 2: president and you usually vote down ballot. But I do 125 00:05:57,329 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 2: think that there was a shift in the mentality of 126 00:06:00,488 --> 00:06:02,380 Speaker 2: the electorate. But you did see some wonders if you 127 00:06:02,390 --> 00:06:04,940 Speaker 2: look like if you look at Alyssa Slotkin who's actually a, 128 00:06:04,950 --> 00:06:08,010 Speaker 2: a friend of mine. So Alyssa Slotkin is a democrat. 129 00:06:08,100 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 2: She was a congresswoman in Michigan running for a senate seat. 130 00:06:12,209 --> 00:06:14,600 Speaker 2: Highly contested. She won it by a hair, I think 131 00:06:14,609 --> 00:06:16,470 Speaker 2: she won by like 5000 votes or something. 132 00:06:16,690 --> 00:06:19,630 Speaker 2: So, what I take from that is indeed, there's been 133 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 2: a shift in the electorate in what the values are 134 00:06:22,488 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 2: potentially in the States and what people worried about, really 135 00:06:25,010 --> 00:06:27,190 Speaker 2: worried about their jobs and inflation. 136 00:06:27,420 --> 00:06:30,429 Speaker 2: But if you look at a um uh a candidate 137 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,500 Speaker 2: like Alyssa, she's out every day, all day doing the 138 00:06:33,510 --> 00:06:37,070 Speaker 2: policy work. So the user experience of her is very 139 00:06:37,079 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 2: different from maybe some politicians who, you know, quote data 140 00:06:41,220 --> 00:06:44,450 Speaker 2: and the the famous uh criticism of the Democratic Party is, 141 00:06:44,529 --> 00:06:46,049 Speaker 2: you know, I don't want, you know, you tell us 142 00:06:46,059 --> 00:06:48,399 Speaker 2: about how the statistics are looking good in a certain place, 143 00:06:48,410 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 2: but our lived experience is different, right? 144 00:06:50,970 --> 00:06:54,260 Speaker 2: So I think in some, I'd say he did pull 145 00:06:54,269 --> 00:06:57,829 Speaker 2: the voting right word, but it was going there anyway. And, 146 00:06:57,839 --> 00:06:59,988 Speaker 2: you know, if you go anywhere outside the urban cities, 147 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:01,910 Speaker 2: you could kind of feel things were changing. 148 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:03,940 Speaker 1: Oh, no, I, I certainly felt that I was in 149 00:07:03,950 --> 00:07:05,820 Speaker 1: the US two weeks ago and I wrote to my 150 00:07:05,829 --> 00:07:08,299 Speaker 1: team uh while I was there, I think I asked 151 00:07:08,309 --> 00:07:11,829 Speaker 1: about 50 people between San Francisco DC and New York 152 00:07:11,950 --> 00:07:14,429 Speaker 1: and 46 told me that Trump was going to win. 153 00:07:14,809 --> 00:07:16,779 Speaker 1: I really was hoping that they were wrong but of 154 00:07:16,790 --> 00:07:17,670 Speaker 1: course they knew better. 155 00:07:17,890 --> 00:07:20,709 Speaker 1: Um house. Is it going to go red as 156 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:22,679 Speaker 2: well? It's probably gonna go red. So I was just 157 00:07:22,690 --> 00:07:25,779 Speaker 2: checking as right before um we started this morning. It's 158 00:07:25,790 --> 00:07:28,529 Speaker 2: still not called, we still got something like um I 159 00:07:28,540 --> 00:07:32,019 Speaker 2: think 28 seats to 27 seats, they still have to call, 160 00:07:32,029 --> 00:07:34,149 Speaker 2: but the Democrats would have to win 21 of those. 161 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,630 Speaker 2: So from a trend perspective, that's not gonna happen. I mean, 162 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,269 Speaker 2: the statistic that I took away from the election morning, 163 00:07:39,279 --> 00:07:41,570 Speaker 2: I was heading in to do an interview uh early 164 00:07:41,579 --> 00:07:44,470 Speaker 2: in the morning and I heard on the radio that Georgia, 165 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:45,950 Speaker 2: which is a big swing state, 166 00:07:46,399 --> 00:07:50,790 Speaker 2: 30% of that electorate is independent. And when Biden and 167 00:07:50,799 --> 00:07:54,049 Speaker 2: Trump ran last time, it was plus eight for Biden 168 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,630 Speaker 2: this time, it was trending plus 11 for Trump. So 169 00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,549 Speaker 2: to me, I thought, ok, well, that's it. So again, 170 00:07:59,559 --> 00:08:01,809 Speaker 2: I think there's underlying trends there to look at, but 171 00:08:01,820 --> 00:08:04,350 Speaker 2: with the House for sure, it'll go Republican. So we'll 172 00:08:04,359 --> 00:08:06,829 Speaker 2: have a clean sweep on the Republican side. 173 00:08:07,529 --> 00:08:12,458 Speaker 1: So economic issues mattered a lot. Democracy in danger was 174 00:08:12,470 --> 00:08:16,239 Speaker 1: a theme. But the fact that Trump is a convicted felon, 175 00:08:16,420 --> 00:08:19,579 Speaker 1: the fact that, you know, he was impeached or all 176 00:08:19,589 --> 00:08:22,679 Speaker 1: the other, you know, not so pleasant things that he 177 00:08:22,690 --> 00:08:25,190 Speaker 1: says had not much of an impact. I mean, he 178 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:26,399 Speaker 1: is getting the popular vote as 179 00:08:26,410 --> 00:08:26,779 Speaker 1: well. 180 00:08:27,089 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 2: He is getting the popular vote. So a couple of 181 00:08:28,890 --> 00:08:31,170 Speaker 2: things I'd say to unpick that because that's definitely, I 182 00:08:31,179 --> 00:08:33,289 Speaker 2: think the big takeaway, I'd say a couple of things. 183 00:08:33,299 --> 00:08:35,909 Speaker 2: Number one, interestingly, voter turnout is down. 184 00:08:36,299 --> 00:08:38,859 Speaker 2: So it was 68% last time. It's a shameful. It's 185 00:08:38,869 --> 00:08:43,218 Speaker 2: not higher. 64% this time. People are saying, oh, Kamala got, 186 00:08:43,229 --> 00:08:46,147 Speaker 2: you know, 11 million less votes than Biden did, but 187 00:08:46,158 --> 00:08:49,359 Speaker 2: she got 83 or four more than Hillary, right? So 188 00:08:49,369 --> 00:08:50,968 Speaker 2: there's a lot of kind of data within there. But 189 00:08:50,979 --> 00:08:51,439 Speaker 2: I think, 190 00:08:52,090 --> 00:08:55,169 Speaker 2: you know, and some might say we're seeing the electorate shift. 191 00:08:55,349 --> 00:08:57,559 Speaker 2: I don't know that it's values so much that are 192 00:08:57,570 --> 00:08:59,729 Speaker 2: shifting again as people's just pain in the pocket. I mean, 193 00:08:59,739 --> 00:09:03,228 Speaker 2: it's interesting listening to your optimistic presentation about the States 194 00:09:03,239 --> 00:09:06,359 Speaker 2: because it'll, I'm now watching. Uh I hate to be 195 00:09:06,369 --> 00:09:08,419 Speaker 2: the person that says that elections over. Let's turn to 196 00:09:08,429 --> 00:09:10,630 Speaker 2: the next one the same day. But I do think 197 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:13,020 Speaker 2: it's interesting to watch what will happen with the midterms 198 00:09:13,070 --> 00:09:15,219 Speaker 2: because if you look at the from the policy making 199 00:09:15,229 --> 00:09:16,030 Speaker 2: perspective now 200 00:09:16,284 --> 00:09:19,565 Speaker 2: republicans have everything. So it's like, ok, you wanted it, 201 00:09:19,684 --> 00:09:21,655 Speaker 2: you have it, let's see what you do. And I 202 00:09:21,664 --> 00:09:25,603 Speaker 2: don't think we have a Trump now that's coming into power, furious. 203 00:09:25,614 --> 00:09:28,085 Speaker 2: We don't have a Trump that's coming into power wanting 204 00:09:28,094 --> 00:09:30,414 Speaker 2: to break a lot of things because he just barely 205 00:09:30,424 --> 00:09:32,625 Speaker 2: got there and he had to, you know, rally the 206 00:09:32,635 --> 00:09:34,885 Speaker 2: troops to get there. He is kind of an open field. 207 00:09:34,895 --> 00:09:37,414 Speaker 2: He's quite jubilant is the words that we're hearing described. 208 00:09:37,424 --> 00:09:40,025 Speaker 2: So what, what is that policy making look like 209 00:09:40,549 --> 00:09:43,728 Speaker 2: in that regard? And then what's the impact of that? 210 00:09:43,739 --> 00:09:45,469 Speaker 2: What are the outcomes as we go into the next 211 00:09:45,479 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 2: couple of years? 212 00:09:46,299 --> 00:09:46,530 Speaker 1: Are 213 00:09:46,539 --> 00:09:49,059 Speaker 1: you trying to suggest that we will see like no 214 00:09:49,070 --> 00:09:52,739 Speaker 1: daily tweet storm and it won't be that. No, 215 00:09:52,750 --> 00:09:55,210 Speaker 2: I'm I'm trying to be optimistic. I think it's gonna 216 00:09:55,219 --> 00:10:00,098 Speaker 2: be very, very, very chaotic also because you remember his 217 00:10:00,109 --> 00:10:03,348 Speaker 2: advisor last time were more establishment people and, and now 218 00:10:03,359 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 2: that's not going to be the case. We don't know 219 00:10:04,690 --> 00:10:06,219 Speaker 2: really exactly who's gonna come in. 220 00:10:06,650 --> 00:10:08,309 Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be volatile. But what I take 221 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,469 Speaker 2: from it, which is interesting is imagine if he had 222 00:10:11,479 --> 00:10:13,950 Speaker 2: run a bit more of a conventional campaign which he 223 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,609 Speaker 2: was doing until the end towards the end when he 224 00:10:16,619 --> 00:10:18,830 Speaker 2: started making comments about Kamala and he had the comic 225 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,070 Speaker 2: on stage that said the racist things about Puerto Rico, 226 00:10:21,900 --> 00:10:24,359 Speaker 2: which we heard him say, maybe he did that because 227 00:10:24,369 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 2: he thought things were too kind of stale. But if 228 00:10:26,450 --> 00:10:28,460 Speaker 2: he had run a more conventional campaign and if he 229 00:10:28,469 --> 00:10:32,569 Speaker 2: dialed down that rhetoric, imagine the gap that it would 230 00:10:32,580 --> 00:10:36,919 Speaker 2: have been right? And Kamala had record breaking money, record breaking, 231 00:10:36,929 --> 00:10:40,270 Speaker 2: get out the vote efforts, very, very professional and organized 232 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:42,869 Speaker 2: best we've ever seen. And we still had this shift. 233 00:10:43,190 --> 00:10:45,799 Speaker 2: So imagine if she hadn't been quite so organized and 234 00:10:45,809 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 2: he had been a little calmer. It tells me 235 00:10:48,659 --> 00:10:52,289 Speaker 2: the electorate has shifted but then it starts looking at, 236 00:10:52,299 --> 00:10:54,770 Speaker 2: to me it becomes shifting to what, in terms of 237 00:10:54,780 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 2: policy and, and what's actually fixable and what's not. But 238 00:10:57,849 --> 00:10:59,890 Speaker 2: it will definitely, I think, be more volatile from a 239 00:10:59,900 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 2: domestic side and a foreign policy 240 00:11:01,450 --> 00:11:01,869 Speaker 2: side. 241 00:11:02,169 --> 00:11:04,390 Speaker 1: Where do the Democrats go from here? 242 00:11:04,739 --> 00:11:08,770 Speaker 2: I think what I'd like to see is uh a 243 00:11:08,780 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: real step back and think about, 244 00:11:11,719 --> 00:11:15,319 Speaker 2: forget about the party politics and whatnot. This is, of course, ideal, 245 00:11:15,330 --> 00:11:17,239 Speaker 2: I don't know that they're gonna do this. But ideally 246 00:11:17,250 --> 00:11:19,239 Speaker 2: I think what they should do is take a step 247 00:11:19,250 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 2: back and say, where is the US voter now? Get 248 00:11:22,969 --> 00:11:24,289 Speaker 2: back in touch with them and you can have a 249 00:11:24,299 --> 00:11:27,590 Speaker 2: conversation about policy, you know, do things that are closer to, 250 00:11:27,599 --> 00:11:29,559 Speaker 2: you know, supporting the unions and the working class, which 251 00:11:29,570 --> 00:11:31,919 Speaker 2: actually to be fair, I think Biden did. But that 252 00:11:31,929 --> 00:11:34,890 Speaker 2: feels like things on paper. I think what they need 253 00:11:34,900 --> 00:11:36,478 Speaker 2: to do is have the connection 254 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 2: with a broader voter base and understand some of the 255 00:11:40,010 --> 00:11:42,380 Speaker 2: cultural issues a bit better and really tap into that 256 00:11:42,390 --> 00:11:45,218 Speaker 2: a bit better. The message. Absolutely. As we saw, fell flat, 257 00:11:45,650 --> 00:11:47,968 Speaker 2: what I am seeing unfortunately, at least in these first 258 00:11:47,979 --> 00:11:51,140 Speaker 2: day or so is a lot of, uh you know, 259 00:11:51,150 --> 00:11:52,820 Speaker 2: you did it. No, you did it. No, you did. It. 260 00:11:52,830 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 2: We're blaming Biden. We're blaming, blaming his wife. We're blaming, 261 00:11:55,830 --> 00:11:59,589 Speaker 2: um K Kamala. We're blaming her advisers. When actually it's, 262 00:11:59,599 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 2: to me it's too big of a gap to be 263 00:12:01,890 --> 00:12:05,659 Speaker 2: a flaw in the actual campaign prosecution or the, 264 00:12:05,950 --> 00:12:08,929 Speaker 2: even the candidate. I just think the values have shifted 265 00:12:08,940 --> 00:12:10,959 Speaker 2: the issues that matter to voters are different than they 266 00:12:10,969 --> 00:12:11,608 Speaker 2: thought they were. 267 00:12:12,270 --> 00:12:16,469 Speaker 1: Immigration tax cut tariffs all on the cards, 268 00:12:16,479 --> 00:12:19,169 Speaker 2: all on the cards. I think we're getting a lot. 269 00:12:19,179 --> 00:12:21,849 Speaker 2: So we work for 80% of the Fortune 500. We, 270 00:12:21,859 --> 00:12:23,989 Speaker 2: as you can imagine, be getting heaps of calls around. 271 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:25,869 Speaker 2: Oh my gosh. What do we do? In fact, we've 272 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:29,250 Speaker 2: been scenario planning for months on, for both sides. I 273 00:12:29,260 --> 00:12:32,319 Speaker 2: think the thing to, to look at is so number one, 274 00:12:32,330 --> 00:12:34,979 Speaker 2: I think what he'll do is what he did last time, 275 00:12:34,989 --> 00:12:36,369 Speaker 2: which is, uh, you know, he has a day one 276 00:12:36,380 --> 00:12:39,890 Speaker 2: package that'll probably include an executive order that says freeze 277 00:12:39,900 --> 00:12:41,869 Speaker 2: everything until we review it. That's fair. 278 00:12:42,739 --> 00:12:45,348 Speaker 2: We may see some things around immigration on day one. Like, 279 00:12:45,359 --> 00:12:48,450 Speaker 2: you know, we saw some quite striking things before, but 280 00:12:48,599 --> 00:12:51,090 Speaker 2: I do still think it's early days. There's a lot 281 00:12:51,099 --> 00:12:52,940 Speaker 2: of jockeys. So first of all, they had, they don't 282 00:12:52,950 --> 00:12:55,489 Speaker 2: know even with the Senate how big that majority is 283 00:12:55,500 --> 00:12:57,229 Speaker 2: going to be. There's still some Senate races to call. 284 00:12:57,239 --> 00:12:59,159 Speaker 2: So the question, you know, once we have all the 285 00:12:59,169 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 2: numbers around the races, we'll understand how big is your 286 00:13:02,090 --> 00:13:05,700 Speaker 2: Senate majority? How big is your house majority? They're starting 287 00:13:05,710 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 2: to think about who's gonna be the senate majority leader 288 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,489 Speaker 2: Mitch mcconnell's retiring. I was reading this morning there was 289 00:13:11,500 --> 00:13:13,659 Speaker 2: a kind of a jockeying between the three people that 290 00:13:13,979 --> 00:13:16,289 Speaker 2: should have that and are close to Trump and want that, 291 00:13:16,299 --> 00:13:18,849 Speaker 2: you know, who is that and who starts getting on 292 00:13:18,859 --> 00:13:23,030 Speaker 2: those really powerful house committees like the Appropriations Committee, the 293 00:13:23,039 --> 00:13:25,409 Speaker 2: Ways and Means Committee. So it really matters. I think, 294 00:13:25,609 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 2: not just who he's putting in his cabinet and as advisers, 295 00:13:28,090 --> 00:13:31,820 Speaker 2: but how those the workings of government shape up and 296 00:13:31,830 --> 00:13:35,140 Speaker 2: I've done a bit of dusting off of education around. How, 297 00:13:35,215 --> 00:13:37,265 Speaker 2: how does the law actually work. So if you look 298 00:13:37,275 --> 00:13:40,844 Speaker 2: at something like NATO, there's been legislation passed recently last 299 00:13:40,854 --> 00:13:45,554 Speaker 2: December to more um formalize the US, uh you know, 300 00:13:45,565 --> 00:13:48,885 Speaker 2: uh any interaction with or, or, or, you know, belonging 301 00:13:48,895 --> 00:13:50,674 Speaker 2: to NATO. So you can't just walk in and do 302 00:13:50,684 --> 00:13:52,755 Speaker 2: an executive order and rip it up, so to speak. 303 00:13:53,500 --> 00:13:56,599 Speaker 2: It's different for Ukraine, you know, there's funding that we 304 00:13:56,609 --> 00:13:59,020 Speaker 2: give but the Americans give but that can be stopped. 305 00:13:59,030 --> 00:13:59,599 Speaker 2: So I think 306 00:14:00,299 --> 00:14:03,348 Speaker 2: it's gonna be really interesting to see what the workings 307 00:14:03,359 --> 00:14:06,679 Speaker 2: of government actually allow in a situation where you have 308 00:14:06,690 --> 00:14:10,140 Speaker 2: a completely dominant party and what they don't because it's 309 00:14:10,150 --> 00:14:11,919 Speaker 2: gonna be different, you know, they kind of, they put 310 00:14:11,929 --> 00:14:15,570 Speaker 2: some things in place to stop uh to, to reduce 311 00:14:15,580 --> 00:14:17,689 Speaker 2: the ability for one person to come in and change 312 00:14:17,700 --> 00:14:20,219 Speaker 2: everything overnight. Risking takes some time to figure 313 00:14:20,229 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 2: out. 314 00:14:20,729 --> 00:14:23,510 Speaker 1: But speaking of one person, Elon Musk is pretty popular 315 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,729 Speaker 1: and uh p powerful, like popular. I don't know, I mean, powerful. Uh, 316 00:14:26,739 --> 00:14:29,739 Speaker 1: he went all in with Trump and it worked out 317 00:14:29,750 --> 00:14:30,190 Speaker 1: for him. 318 00:14:30,510 --> 00:14:34,210 Speaker 1: Um, in the past, Angela, the Republican party has been 319 00:14:34,219 --> 00:14:36,690 Speaker 1: the party of big corporations. We see a bit of 320 00:14:36,700 --> 00:14:39,510 Speaker 1: a bifurcation Now we see some tech bros, Elon Musk, 321 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:42,809 Speaker 1: the Winklevoss brothers, Peter Theo, they have been big funders 322 00:14:42,820 --> 00:14:45,559 Speaker 1: of Trump, but the rest of the corporate world still 323 00:14:45,570 --> 00:14:48,289 Speaker 1: seems to be either mainstream Republican or Democrat. 324 00:14:48,559 --> 00:14:51,739 Speaker 1: So, is the Republican party a party of big corporations 325 00:14:51,750 --> 00:14:52,369 Speaker 1: no more? 326 00:14:52,489 --> 00:14:55,890 Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting that you say that I think that 327 00:14:55,900 --> 00:14:59,039 Speaker 2: was also my impression, but in recent days and weeks 328 00:14:59,049 --> 00:15:01,450 Speaker 2: as we've been going out and talking to clients, there 329 00:15:01,460 --> 00:15:04,659 Speaker 2: are quite a lot of big corporations that are more 330 00:15:04,669 --> 00:15:08,460 Speaker 2: supportive of that America first agenda than you might see, especially, 331 00:15:08,469 --> 00:15:10,479 Speaker 2: you know, kind of looking at it from over here. 332 00:15:10,510 --> 00:15:12,859 Speaker 2: So I think it's a bit of a mix. Um 333 00:15:13,799 --> 00:15:16,179 Speaker 2: what I, what I'm watching for and, you know, you're 334 00:15:16,190 --> 00:15:18,669 Speaker 2: the economist and, and a lot of really smart people 335 00:15:18,679 --> 00:15:22,219 Speaker 2: watching finance in this room. I'm really watching for, ok, 336 00:15:22,229 --> 00:15:25,250 Speaker 2: he's got the stage now. He's got everything he has 337 00:15:25,260 --> 00:15:27,409 Speaker 2: nothing to prove in terms of the election. He won 338 00:15:27,419 --> 00:15:30,119 Speaker 2: it by a large margin. He's a lame duck president. 339 00:15:30,130 --> 00:15:31,789 Speaker 2: No more elections to be had. So he can kind 340 00:15:31,799 --> 00:15:35,090 Speaker 2: of like rest for a second and say, what do 341 00:15:35,099 --> 00:15:37,780 Speaker 2: I actually want to accomplish? He does have an agenda. 342 00:15:37,789 --> 00:15:41,099 Speaker 2: It's called Agenda 47. It's 14 pages. It's not long. 343 00:15:41,479 --> 00:15:43,770 Speaker 2: Um So there's not a lot of policy detail there, 344 00:15:44,359 --> 00:15:46,780 Speaker 2: but what's he gonna actually do? And at some point, 345 00:15:46,919 --> 00:15:49,340 Speaker 2: does he take the ear more of 346 00:15:49,969 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 2: the more um bombastic advisor he's had before on trade 347 00:15:54,409 --> 00:15:57,070 Speaker 2: and economic policy or does he start talking to more 348 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,619 Speaker 2: traditional economists that are, you know, we've seen the statistics 349 00:15:59,630 --> 00:16:02,130 Speaker 2: that say if everything he said he wanted to do, 350 00:16:02,140 --> 00:16:05,150 Speaker 2: the high tariffs went into place very damaging for the 351 00:16:05,159 --> 00:16:08,239 Speaker 2: US economy, very damaging for the global economy. Is he 352 00:16:08,250 --> 00:16:09,989 Speaker 2: going to actually do it? I mean, let's see if 353 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:14,510 Speaker 2: he gets some advisers around him that can um 354 00:16:15,349 --> 00:16:17,940 Speaker 2: maybe help him moderate some of that policy. So in some, 355 00:16:17,950 --> 00:16:18,570 Speaker 2: I'd say 356 00:16:19,429 --> 00:16:20,700 Speaker 2: the Republican Party 357 00:16:21,710 --> 00:16:26,390 Speaker 2: still is uh supporting, you know, representing big business, but 358 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,909 Speaker 2: even something like the business leaders round table has come 359 00:16:28,919 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 2: out and said they, you know, have had big concerns. 360 00:16:31,010 --> 00:16:33,059 Speaker 2: So in some, I'd say it's a mix but it's 361 00:16:33,070 --> 00:16:36,090 Speaker 2: not just he's got the tech and the crypto people 362 00:16:36,099 --> 00:16:38,369 Speaker 2: and none of big business it's really overlapped. 363 00:16:39,210 --> 00:16:42,409 Speaker 1: Could he under a scenario that you can think of? 364 00:16:42,419 --> 00:16:44,559 Speaker 1: And maybe you can assign a probability to that step 365 00:16:44,570 --> 00:16:47,119 Speaker 1: down in two years and give the presidency to JD Vance. 366 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:53,309 Speaker 2: So that's an interesting uh an interesting proposition, I think 367 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:53,390 Speaker 2: uh 368 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,489 Speaker 2: overall, I'd say that's unlikely. But remember he's not a 369 00:16:58,500 --> 00:16:59,260 Speaker 2: young man, 370 00:16:59,330 --> 00:16:59,950 Speaker 1: he'll be in two 371 00:16:59,989 --> 00:17:02,250 Speaker 2: years time. And actually, what's interesting is one of the 372 00:17:02,260 --> 00:17:04,409 Speaker 2: top risks that we're trending as control risks in the 373 00:17:04,420 --> 00:17:05,920 Speaker 2: years ahead is if you look at first of all, 374 00:17:05,930 --> 00:17:07,670 Speaker 2: as we know, this was the year of the election globally. 375 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,609 Speaker 2: If you take a step back a second year of 376 00:17:09,619 --> 00:17:12,739 Speaker 2: the election globally, almost all of those from Japan and 377 00:17:12,843 --> 00:17:15,874 Speaker 2: India to France and the UK change elections. So what 378 00:17:15,884 --> 00:17:18,604 Speaker 2: we're seeing in the States is actually not that different. Also, 379 00:17:18,614 --> 00:17:21,423 Speaker 2: if you look at the countries with the 10 biggest populations, 380 00:17:21,433 --> 00:17:24,634 Speaker 2: almost all of them have leaders that are well north 381 00:17:24,644 --> 00:17:28,863 Speaker 2: of 75 Russia, you can name them all off. So 382 00:17:28,913 --> 00:17:31,263 Speaker 2: does he step down in two years? What's his health like? 383 00:17:31,900 --> 00:17:34,020 Speaker 2: What's his mental ability? Like, I mean, one thing is 384 00:17:34,030 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 2: stepping down another might be just a step kind of 385 00:17:36,369 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 2: a little bit back like Reagan did, I don't know 386 00:17:39,290 --> 00:17:42,379 Speaker 2: that he'd be keen to relinquish it, but also I 387 00:17:42,390 --> 00:17:44,739 Speaker 2: don't think he's that keen to govern. He was keen 388 00:17:44,750 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 2: to prove a point and get in. He feels passionate 389 00:17:47,050 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 2: about tariffs, he feels passionate about China and he feels, 390 00:17:50,290 --> 00:17:51,438 Speaker 2: I think passionate about, 391 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,069 Speaker 2: you know, domestic policy that might um push back a 392 00:17:55,079 --> 00:17:57,599 Speaker 2: vengeance as they say right on some of the people 393 00:17:57,609 --> 00:17:59,780 Speaker 2: that he thought blocked him before. I don't think he, 394 00:17:59,790 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 2: you know, this isn't, uh, a Joe Biden or Bill Clinton. 395 00:18:02,530 --> 00:18:04,448 Speaker 2: That's like I just want to get into that policy 396 00:18:04,459 --> 00:18:07,300 Speaker 2: and really tweak what, you know, what we're actually doing 397 00:18:07,310 --> 00:18:09,219 Speaker 2: from a legislative point of view. So he may, 398 00:18:10,109 --> 00:18:11,869 Speaker 2: it was a scenario if he gets tired and, or 399 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,650 Speaker 2: bored or, and, or, and, or unhealthy, but I think 400 00:18:14,660 --> 00:18:16,688 Speaker 2: it would take a lot for him to formally step down, 401 00:18:16,699 --> 00:18:19,400 Speaker 2: but I could see him stepping back and then others 402 00:18:19,410 --> 00:18:21,530 Speaker 2: would jump in. But I would say on JD Vance 403 00:18:22,390 --> 00:18:24,869 Speaker 2: doesn't have a lot of friends, right? I mean, there 404 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,410 Speaker 2: was a phenomenal podcast. David Remnick from the New Yorker 405 00:18:27,420 --> 00:18:29,979 Speaker 2: did with Newt Gingrich who if you remember was the 406 00:18:29,989 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 2: Republican from way back, who first orchestrated, you know, the 407 00:18:33,050 --> 00:18:35,609 Speaker 2: tea party and this what became the mega movement and 408 00:18:35,619 --> 00:18:38,390 Speaker 2: it is scathing things to say about JDF 409 00:18:38,685 --> 00:18:41,405 Speaker 2: and all the how young he is and how much 410 00:18:41,415 --> 00:18:44,694 Speaker 2: his policy positions have shifted just with the wind. So 411 00:18:44,704 --> 00:18:48,165 Speaker 2: I think there's a long list of people right around 412 00:18:48,175 --> 00:18:51,005 Speaker 2: JD Vance said, if there's an opening, he wouldn't step down. 413 00:18:51,015 --> 00:18:53,545 Speaker 2: But in terms of having power, I don't know that 414 00:18:53,555 --> 00:18:54,614 Speaker 2: it's going to go straight to him. 415 00:18:54,885 --> 00:18:57,214 Speaker 1: All right, let's uh talk about China. 416 00:18:57,900 --> 00:19:01,709 Speaker 1: Uh It's not the case that Donald Trump brought in 417 00:19:01,719 --> 00:19:04,978 Speaker 1: the entire China anti China spectrum. The US had been 418 00:19:04,989 --> 00:19:07,410 Speaker 1: turning sort of protectionist even during the Obama years, but 419 00:19:07,420 --> 00:19:09,979 Speaker 1: he turbo charge it with the tariff, but it's not like, 420 00:19:09,989 --> 00:19:11,979 Speaker 1: you know, Biden took anything back. In fact, in the 421 00:19:11,989 --> 00:19:14,839 Speaker 1: last four years, it's gotten tighter on China on tech 422 00:19:14,849 --> 00:19:18,319 Speaker 1: access and no tariffs have come down. What can we 423 00:19:18,329 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: expect and what are you telling your clients on the 424 00:19:20,530 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 1: China policy? Yeah. 425 00:19:21,890 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 2: So I think 426 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:25,589 Speaker 2: we shouldn't be too worried out of the gate. I 427 00:19:25,599 --> 00:19:28,619 Speaker 2: can see that there's a, there's a a thinking of 428 00:19:28,630 --> 00:19:31,380 Speaker 2: being very, very worried. He said, you know, he said 429 00:19:31,390 --> 00:19:35,380 Speaker 2: really aggressive things, 60% tariffs and whatnot. But I again, 430 00:19:35,390 --> 00:19:38,750 Speaker 2: I think the way he's coming in matters, he's not 431 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,839 Speaker 2: coming in with something to prove that may impact the 432 00:19:42,849 --> 00:19:45,859 Speaker 2: who he's bringing in, which then impacts policy. I still 433 00:19:45,869 --> 00:19:47,599 Speaker 2: think we're going to see some of the same old faces, 434 00:19:47,609 --> 00:19:50,689 Speaker 2: Robert Lighthizer, maybe Peter Navarro as an adviser in some 435 00:19:50,699 --> 00:19:52,300 Speaker 2: way and definitely 436 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 2: what we're advising clients is the US China tensions will 437 00:19:55,369 --> 00:20:00,060 Speaker 2: continue and probably escalate in the trade area. But there's, 438 00:20:00,069 --> 00:20:02,780 Speaker 2: he's also if you want to be optimistic, I mean, 439 00:20:02,790 --> 00:20:05,609 Speaker 2: he is a deal maker and so is Xi Jinping. 440 00:20:05,619 --> 00:20:09,099 Speaker 2: So there is a scenario where they kind of um 441 00:20:09,270 --> 00:20:12,380 Speaker 2: look at what is on offer and figure out some 442 00:20:12,390 --> 00:20:12,859 Speaker 2: ways to, 443 00:20:12,949 --> 00:20:16,770 Speaker 2: to focus very specifically on things. I mean, the Biden 444 00:20:16,780 --> 00:20:20,310 Speaker 2: administration with Jake Sullivan had the um approach with China 445 00:20:20,319 --> 00:20:22,969 Speaker 2: of as you know, narrow yard, high fence Trump is 446 00:20:22,979 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 2: more blunt policy tools, you know, 60% tariffs and everything. 447 00:20:26,030 --> 00:20:27,550 Speaker 2: I don't know what he was going to actually do though. 448 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 2: In the end, I think we have to see, I 449 00:20:29,130 --> 00:20:31,969 Speaker 2: will say on the China side, they have not retaliated 450 00:20:31,979 --> 00:20:33,209 Speaker 2: in kind, they've done 451 00:20:33,780 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 2: bits but it has never e equal to nor exceeded 452 00:20:37,170 --> 00:20:40,239 Speaker 2: what the US has done in terms of um trade restrictions. 453 00:20:40,510 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 2: So I, so I would say two things. Number one, 454 00:20:43,369 --> 00:20:47,910 Speaker 2: China has put together the architecture to retaliate quite well 455 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 2: in these past years, unreliable entities list anti foreign sanctions law. 456 00:20:51,569 --> 00:20:53,589 Speaker 2: So they have it there, they haven't really used it. 457 00:20:53,859 --> 00:20:56,270 Speaker 2: Um But then I would say let's look at third 458 00:20:56,280 --> 00:21:00,129 Speaker 2: countries because if you've got, you know, if the US 459 00:21:00,140 --> 00:21:01,979 Speaker 2: really were to want to tighten 460 00:21:02,780 --> 00:21:05,899 Speaker 2: trade restrictions with China, you know, you're asking Japan and 461 00:21:05,910 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 2: the Netherlands and others to stop exporting their semiconductor manufacturing equipment. 462 00:21:10,910 --> 00:21:13,459 Speaker 2: But even Biden can get that to happen at some point. 463 00:21:13,469 --> 00:21:16,250 Speaker 2: Allies say there's only so far we can help you. 464 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:17,989 Speaker 2: What does that look like? If you have a more 465 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,599 Speaker 2: bombastic unilateralist President 466 00:21:21,420 --> 00:21:24,709 Speaker 2: Biden will probably, I don't know that Trump's gonna have 467 00:21:24,719 --> 00:21:26,910 Speaker 2: as strong relationships with the countries. He's trying to keep 468 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,399 Speaker 2: on side as, as Biden would do. 469 00:21:30,319 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: Um Korea, Japan, Taiwan, these countries are also looking at 470 00:21:33,810 --> 00:21:35,219 Speaker 1: this election with some degree of 471 00:21:35,229 --> 00:21:35,790 Speaker 1: nervousness. 472 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,750 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's a couple of things there. Obviously, 473 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,030 Speaker 2: number one, there's trade, there's and, and there's um so 474 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,709 Speaker 2: there's trade and there's security, the trade, economics and security 475 00:21:43,719 --> 00:21:46,459 Speaker 2: from the trade and economics perspective. We hear a lot 476 00:21:46,469 --> 00:21:49,780 Speaker 2: of course about actual trade flows and whatnot. But look 477 00:21:49,790 --> 00:21:52,780 Speaker 2: also at the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips Act 478 00:21:52,790 --> 00:21:55,609 Speaker 2: in the States that was giving, you know, that legislation 479 00:21:55,619 --> 00:21:57,300 Speaker 2: that Biden put in is giving a lot of 480 00:21:57,410 --> 00:22:00,910 Speaker 2: credits to companies in Korea, Taiwan and other Japan to 481 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,438 Speaker 2: put investments of, you know, tech, tech manufacturing equipment in, 482 00:22:05,449 --> 00:22:08,550 Speaker 2: especially in, you know, kind of southern states. So what 483 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,349 Speaker 2: happens to that? Ira? That's gonna be interesting. Just, you know, 484 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,219 Speaker 2: Trump has said, I'm going to rip all that, those 485 00:22:13,229 --> 00:22:15,949 Speaker 2: things up, which would make white elephants out of these 486 00:22:15,959 --> 00:22:18,750 Speaker 2: investments in the States. But what if they are red states? 487 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:20,790 Speaker 2: Maybe that's not such a good idea, they're bringing jobs 488 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,389 Speaker 2: to the States. So there's, there's this very interesting trade 489 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:24,429 Speaker 2: investment component. 490 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,380 Speaker 2: Uh I did see last night on TV that Japan 491 00:22:28,390 --> 00:22:30,500 Speaker 2: thinks by the end of the year now it's going 492 00:22:30,510 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 2: to be able to have to take the acquisition of 493 00:22:32,810 --> 00:22:36,260 Speaker 2: us steel, which was a big question, right? Because how again, 494 00:22:36,270 --> 00:22:38,780 Speaker 2: how can the US ask Japan to help them so 495 00:22:38,790 --> 00:22:40,939 Speaker 2: much on trade when they're pushing them and saying, but 496 00:22:40,949 --> 00:22:43,130 Speaker 2: you can't invest in us steel? That's been a tricky 497 00:22:43,140 --> 00:22:45,300 Speaker 2: tricky one. But then obviously, I'd say this 498 00:22:45,410 --> 00:22:48,849 Speaker 2: security component, right? So the uh the US of course, 499 00:22:48,859 --> 00:22:52,310 Speaker 2: has been providing security support to Korea and Japan under 500 00:22:52,319 --> 00:22:55,489 Speaker 2: Trump one point. Oh, he was asking for or pressing 501 00:22:55,500 --> 00:22:58,958 Speaker 2: for more uh payment to be made by Japan and Korea, 502 00:22:58,969 --> 00:23:01,329 Speaker 2: you know, increase your own defense spending. Take on this 503 00:23:01,339 --> 00:23:04,899 Speaker 2: burden yourself. Where does that go out of the gate? 504 00:23:04,910 --> 00:23:07,709 Speaker 2: One could say that's gonna be back on the table. 505 00:23:08,109 --> 00:23:10,339 Speaker 2: But again, maybe it's not because it's a different world 506 00:23:10,349 --> 00:23:12,589 Speaker 2: and there's, maybe there's, um, 507 00:23:13,250 --> 00:23:15,669 Speaker 2: I guess in some I'd say I'm watching to see 508 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,869 Speaker 2: if his approach. Now, if it's a learned approach that 509 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 2: you can't ask for a trade, something on, on this 510 00:23:22,010 --> 00:23:24,150 Speaker 2: side and then push someone hard on security for this side. 511 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,790 Speaker 2: It's got, it's a complex, it's a, it's a multi, 512 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,229 Speaker 2: you know, phrase sentence, so to speak. And, and what 513 00:23:30,239 --> 00:23:32,079 Speaker 2: did his advisers say on that? What does he do? 514 00:23:32,449 --> 00:23:36,349 Speaker 1: OK. Finally, Singapore, we do such a good job of 515 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,708 Speaker 1: balancing East and the West under Trump. 516 00:23:40,859 --> 00:23:41,530 Speaker 1: I point out, 517 00:23:41,949 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 2: I think we keep balancing. I mean, first of all, 518 00:23:43,770 --> 00:23:47,659 Speaker 2: I'd say Singapore has done a phenomenal job. It's not easy. 519 00:23:47,729 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 2: I think it's going to continue to not be easy. 520 00:23:50,050 --> 00:23:52,770 Speaker 2: I think there's looking at the signals through the noise. 521 00:23:52,780 --> 00:23:54,650 Speaker 2: I think there'll be a lot of volatility, you know, 522 00:23:54,660 --> 00:23:57,359 Speaker 2: tweets coming through or X coming through. But when you 523 00:23:57,369 --> 00:24:00,050 Speaker 2: look at the actual policy, I don't think the US 524 00:24:00,060 --> 00:24:02,579 Speaker 2: is looking to change anything radically as it relates to 525 00:24:02,589 --> 00:24:05,619 Speaker 2: Singapore or even Southeast Asia. Some of the tensions that 526 00:24:05,630 --> 00:24:05,959 Speaker 2: we see 527 00:24:06,064 --> 00:24:09,474 Speaker 2: potentially spiking are things around Vietnam or Malaysia that have 528 00:24:09,484 --> 00:24:11,645 Speaker 2: big trade deficits with the US. And what does that 529 00:24:11,655 --> 00:24:14,944 Speaker 2: mean also for China to invest in a third country 530 00:24:14,954 --> 00:24:17,145 Speaker 2: to then export to the States? Is that fair? What 531 00:24:17,155 --> 00:24:19,165 Speaker 2: does the US think about that? That's I think the 532 00:24:19,175 --> 00:24:23,833 Speaker 2: interest with Southeast Asia, I think Singapore continues to balance. Well, 533 00:24:23,864 --> 00:24:27,155 Speaker 2: um there is a scenario where us China tensions 534 00:24:28,020 --> 00:24:32,770 Speaker 2: don't necessarily get all that much worse. And uh Singapore, 535 00:24:32,780 --> 00:24:35,920 Speaker 2: you know, keep on keeping on, I would say and 536 00:24:35,930 --> 00:24:38,010 Speaker 2: uh it has a, it has a great obviously team 537 00:24:38,020 --> 00:24:38,899 Speaker 2: in place to do that, 538 00:24:39,650 --> 00:24:42,869 Speaker 1: Angela. Thank you very much for your insights. Thank you. 539 00:24:44,060 --> 00:24:46,930 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Kobe Time was produced by Ken Delbridge 540 00:24:46,939 --> 00:24:49,609 Speaker 1: from Spy studios, Violet Lee and Daisy. She were provided 541 00:24:49,619 --> 00:24:53,130 Speaker 1: additional assistance. This podcast is for information only and does 542 00:24:53,140 --> 00:24:57,550 Speaker 1: not provide any trade recommendations. All 140 episodes of copy 543 00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,849 Speaker 1: time are available on youtube as well as in all 544 00:24:59,859 --> 00:25:03,930 Speaker 1: major podcast platforms including Apple and Spotify. As for our 545 00:25:03,939 --> 00:25:06,718 Speaker 1: research publications and webinars, you can find them all by 546 00:25:06,729 --> 00:25:09,969 Speaker 1: Googling DPS research Library. Have a great day.