WEBVTT - Kopi Time E082 - Carin Smaller on Global Food Security 0:00:06.519 --> 0:00:10.070 Hello. You're listening to Kobe time, a podcast series on 0:00:10.070 --> 0:00:13.010 markets and economies from devious group research. I'm Tamera Beck 0:00:13.010 --> 0:00:16.840 chief economist. Welcome to our 82nd episode. 0:00:17.230 --> 0:00:20.099 Today I'll start on a personal note. My friend as 0:00:20.100 --> 0:00:24.480 motif does policy advocacy work for SDG two. Now you 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:27.400 may wonder what that entails. Well, S. D. G two 0:00:27.410 --> 0:00:30.990 is number two on the U. N. Sustainable development goals 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:34.810 simply stated it is zero hunger end hunger, achieve food 0:00:34.810 --> 0:00:40.099 security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture. Well easier 0:00:40.100 --> 0:00:42.420 said than done as we have seen over the last 0:00:42.433 --> 0:00:47.003 year or so, that what was considered a topic largely 0:00:47.003 --> 0:00:50.213 confined to very poor countries now is becoming a source 0:00:50.213 --> 0:00:53.633 of global concern both from a short and long term perspective. 0:00:53.643 --> 0:00:55.603 So I've been asking my friend Asthma that you know, 0:00:55.613 --> 0:00:57.183 who should I talk to if I want to get 0:00:57.183 --> 0:01:01.413 a global sweep of of this issue. Somebody who's comfortable 0:01:01.413 --> 0:01:04.543 talking about the science as well as the politics and 0:01:04.543 --> 0:01:07.619 economics of food insecurity and he should suggest that 0:01:07.636 --> 0:01:10.166 today's guests. So I'm very pleased to have with us. 0:01:10.176 --> 0:01:13.786 Karen smaller. She is the executive director of the Schomburg 0:01:13.796 --> 0:01:17.556 Center for Food and Climate. Karen was co director and 0:01:17.556 --> 0:01:21.766 co author of Serious to 2030 a major initiative that 0:01:21.766 --> 0:01:24.466 we'll talk about in detail during the podcast. She is 0:01:24.465 --> 0:01:27.216 also the author of the guide to negotiating investment contracts 0:01:27.215 --> 0:01:30.796 for farmland and water published by the International Institute for 0:01:30.796 --> 0:01:32.836 Sustainable Development or I I. S. D. 0:01:33.020 --> 0:01:36.420 And this guide sort of marks the first attempt at 0:01:36.430 --> 0:01:40.250 a model contract for developing countries to attract foreign investment 0:01:40.250 --> 0:01:44.490 for agriculture while reducing poverty and protecting the environment. And 0:01:44.490 --> 0:01:47.520 that's one issue that I want to pick Karen's brain, 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:51.070 both the intersection or the intersection of climate change and 0:01:51.070 --> 0:01:52.090 food insecurity. 0:01:52.250 --> 0:01:56.270 Karen in her past professional engagement was the Director of Agriculture, 0:01:56.270 --> 0:01:58.960 Trade and Investment at I. S. D. As well as 0:01:58.960 --> 0:02:02.010 director of the Trade Information project at the Institute of 0:02:02.010 --> 0:02:06.380 Agriculture and Trade Policy I 80 p. Karen smaller. Welcome 0:02:06.380 --> 0:02:07.120 to Covid Time. 0:02:07.470 --> 0:02:09.690 Thank you. Thank you so much for having me. 0:02:10.050 --> 0:02:12.590 It's great to have you. I want to start with 0:02:12.590 --> 0:02:15.690 the very latest on your side. You're the executive director 0:02:15.690 --> 0:02:18.240 of the Schomburg Center for Food and Climate. What is 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:21.080 the center's mission objective and what is your role in it? 0:02:22.150 --> 0:02:26.900 Thank you. So um our vision at the samba center 0:02:26.910 --> 0:02:32.100 is quite simple but ambitious. It's a world without hunger 0:02:32.110 --> 0:02:34.540 achieved sustainably 0:02:35.190 --> 0:02:43.220 and through empowering poor producers, informal traders and small businesses. 0:02:44.590 --> 0:02:47.769 How do we do this? We do this by basically 0:02:47.770 --> 0:02:52.060 influencing those with power to do more and to do 0:02:52.060 --> 0:02:52.780 it better. 0:02:53.820 --> 0:02:57.329 So we try to convince world leaders, business leaders and 0:02:57.330 --> 0:03:01.919 philanthropists to act and I'm actually one of three co 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:05.840 founders of the samba center. And as you as you 0:03:05.840 --> 0:03:08.520 articulated my role is as the executive director 0:03:09.930 --> 0:03:14.560 and when you say that you engage philanthropists and governments. 0:03:14.570 --> 0:03:18.230 Um so give us a few ideas of you know 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:21.000 how you want to pursue this or I'm sure you've 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:23.389 done this in your previous jobs as well. But just 0:03:23.389 --> 0:03:24.669 give us a sense of, you know, how does an 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:27.579 advocate running a center like this engage on a day 0:03:27.580 --> 0:03:28.520 to day basis? 0:03:29.530 --> 0:03:33.820 So we try and reach those with the most power, 0:03:33.830 --> 0:03:38.750 which means we're trying to aim for ministers, politicians were 0:03:38.750 --> 0:03:40.860 trying to aim for C. E. O. S and we're 0:03:40.860 --> 0:03:43.980 telling them this is what needs to happen to achieve 0:03:43.980 --> 0:03:47.070 world hunger and to do it sustainably. This is how 0:03:47.070 --> 0:03:49.330 you can do it. So I'm going to maybe tell 0:03:49.330 --> 0:03:51.520 you a bit about it later but we have a 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:55.839 great initiative called the zero hunger private sector pledge 0:03:55.980 --> 0:04:01.340 where we ask companies to make financial commitments to end hunger. 0:04:01.970 --> 0:04:05.270 And we have a menu of 10 high impact areas 0:04:05.270 --> 0:04:08.800 that have been defined by science through this Sara's 2030 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:11.090 project that you mentioned at the introduction 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:15.460 and we asked them to make investments in those 10 0:04:15.460 --> 0:04:18.890 areas that are backed by the scientific evidence and in 0:04:18.890 --> 0:04:22.940 the 90 odd countries that we've identified are the highest 0:04:22.940 --> 0:04:27.270 priority countries to try and solve this issue of world hunger. 0:04:27.990 --> 0:04:31.030 Great. So yeah, we will talk in great detail about 0:04:31.029 --> 0:04:33.890 the science that's sort of trying to come up with 0:04:33.890 --> 0:04:36.610 solutions as well as diagnosing the problem and the issue 0:04:36.610 --> 0:04:40.400 of costing and I've seen some of your YouTube presentation. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:42.710 So I'm really excited to talk about that. But first, 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:46.089 Karen the here and now let's talk about the state 0:04:46.089 --> 0:04:49.100 of food security and security world war right now, how 0:04:49.100 --> 0:04:51.700 worried should we be about the rest of this year? 0:04:51.710 --> 0:04:55.140 As well as 2023, we both respected the price of 0:04:55.140 --> 0:04:57.060 food and availability of food. 0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:03.880 So unfortunately we have to we should be worried. We 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:08.469 should be very worried. So whilst you may have seen 0:05:08.470 --> 0:05:11.850 prices for wheat and corn easing off a bit in 0:05:11.850 --> 0:05:15.810 the last few weeks and this was definitely helped by 0:05:15.810 --> 0:05:20.969 the Ukraine Russia grain agreement that Turkey and the U. N. Brokered. 0:05:20.980 --> 0:05:25.140 So whilst definitely we see prices easing off compared to 0:05:25.140 --> 0:05:27.670 what we were seeing in March and april, 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:30.820 we're not out of the dark, we're not out of 0:05:30.820 --> 0:05:36.490 the woods. This crisis is not just about grain prices 0:05:36.490 --> 0:05:42.059 and availability of grains and it predates the war in Ukraine. 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:47.080 This crisis, this food security crisis that we currently have 0:05:47.089 --> 0:05:53.370 is also about fertilizers, fertilizer prices, and fertilizer availability. It's 0:05:53.370 --> 0:05:57.770 very much about energy prices and energy availability and it's 0:05:57.770 --> 0:06:03.210 about access to finance. So all these things, food fertilizers, 0:06:03.220 --> 0:06:05.130 energy and finance 0:06:05.870 --> 0:06:11.450 are currently too expensive for poor countries and poor producers 0:06:11.450 --> 0:06:12.440 to afford. 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:16.600 So that basically means that fertilizers are either not being 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:20.160 applied on farms or being applied sparingly. 0:06:20.890 --> 0:06:23.690 And that means that the next harvest there's not gonna 0:06:23.690 --> 0:06:26.890 be as much food produced as the last harvest. 0:06:28.029 --> 0:06:31.540 The high energy prices means that even where food is 0:06:31.540 --> 0:06:35.650 being produced, they're less likely to leave the farm because 0:06:35.650 --> 0:06:38.719 the farmers not willing to pay the high energy prices 0:06:38.730 --> 0:06:42.779 and the traders, the informal traders and the smes who 0:06:42.779 --> 0:06:48.350 are transporting these, this produce to market can't afford to 0:06:48.350 --> 0:06:49.960 do it at the same price. 0:06:51.140 --> 0:06:54.110 Um So this issue of transport means we're gonna have 0:06:54.110 --> 0:06:57.090 food not leaving the farm or less food leaving the 0:06:57.089 --> 0:06:58.880 farm and less transport, 0:06:59.550 --> 0:07:02.450 this is going to mean higher chance for the food 0:07:02.450 --> 0:07:05.890 to be wasted or rotting or just not leaving at all. 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:11.750 And then there's this finance crisis. Um and I mean, 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.610 we obviously see it most starkly in the case of 0:07:14.610 --> 0:07:18.310 sri Lanka with the debt crisis, but it's not just 0:07:18.310 --> 0:07:21.680 about sri Lanka and countries, it's about farmers being in debt, 0:07:21.690 --> 0:07:23.500 it's about countries being in debt, 0:07:23.710 --> 0:07:26.740 It's about debt levels all over the world out of 0:07:26.740 --> 0:07:31.790 control in so many low and middle-income countries and it's 0:07:31.790 --> 0:07:35.410 this vicious circle, that means we have to be really, 0:07:35.410 --> 0:07:40.820 really worried for now. And into 2030, just a small example, 0:07:40.830 --> 0:07:43.420 the farmers that are currently in debt and we see 0:07:43.420 --> 0:07:45.960 a lot of those Ukrainian farmers who've been trying to 0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:49.710 get their grains shipped out of Ukraine, heavily indebted 0:07:50.270 --> 0:07:54.390 if they can't get those grains out either through land 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:55.840 or through the Black Sea, 0:07:56.520 --> 0:07:59.390 They're not going to be able to plant next harvest 0:07:59.460 --> 0:08:02.710 next season, and then this crisis is going to go 0:08:02.710 --> 0:08:04.410 through into 2023. 0:08:06.010 --> 0:08:09.350 Alright, that's a, you know sobering set of thoughts and 0:08:09.350 --> 0:08:10.980 I have a few follow ups on that care. And 0:08:10.980 --> 0:08:15.350 so before we go into the low and low income countries, 0:08:15.350 --> 0:08:17.310 I want to talk about at least one middle income 0:08:17.310 --> 0:08:20.290 country which is china and the other is the other 0:08:20.290 --> 0:08:23.080 big chunk of population in the world is India. So 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:24.730 India of course plays a role in both 0:08:24.745 --> 0:08:29.715 Exporting and to some extent importing food material, China hugely 0:08:29.715 --> 0:08:32.755 reliant on the US for Soybean. And also I guess 0:08:32.765 --> 0:08:35.775 Latin America. So let's start with China and India, what's 0:08:35.775 --> 0:08:38.475 your sense of these two countries? Both with respect to 0:08:38.485 --> 0:08:43.464 harvest and stockpile and and the outlook for 2022 and 2023. 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:48.150 So we don't have a great visibility on the chinese stocks. 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:51.179 It looks like china has quite good stocks. So there's 0:08:51.179 --> 0:08:53.400 a lot of calls to try and get more information 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:57.370 about what china's stock levels are because china's stocks look 0:08:57.370 --> 0:08:58.720 like they're pretty good. 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:04.209 Whereas global stocks are pretty low. So the low stock 0:09:04.210 --> 0:09:06.400 levels is another sort of sign for me that we 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:09.150 should be worried not just now, but in the future. 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:12.670 So we seem to feel to hear that there are 0:09:12.670 --> 0:09:15.230 quite good stock levels in china, but china is also 0:09:15.230 --> 0:09:19.650 pretty dependent on Ukraine and Russia for imports. So china 0:09:19.650 --> 0:09:23.050 is actually potentially one of the beneficiaries of this new 0:09:23.059 --> 0:09:25.010 Ukraine Russia grain deal. 0:09:26.070 --> 0:09:29.569 But again, china can do more to help ease the 0:09:29.580 --> 0:09:33.800 global market crisis by releasing some of their stocks onto 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:36.099 global markets and making those more available. 0:09:37.340 --> 0:09:42.310 India has not been the best ally of the poor 0:09:42.309 --> 0:09:45.360 world recently. You know, they put in place this ban 0:09:45.370 --> 0:09:50.070 on on grain exports, on wheat exports. Um and this 0:09:50.070 --> 0:09:53.750 was really disruptive to markets and to those countries that were, 0:09:53.910 --> 0:09:57.980 you know, depending on India not banning their exports, but 0:09:57.980 --> 0:10:01.080 allowing exports to come out. So that India could then 0:10:01.090 --> 0:10:08.000 replace some of the Ukrainian and Russian grain exports. But 0:10:08.010 --> 0:10:10.110 India put in place these export bans 0:10:10.135 --> 0:10:14.425 that was really very badly received by the world. I 0:10:14.425 --> 0:10:19.465 think India is now agreed to lift them. But again, 0:10:19.475 --> 0:10:22.905 India and china are also going to be struggling with 0:10:22.915 --> 0:10:26.525 not just the food prices, but again, this sort of 0:10:26.535 --> 0:10:31.975 multiple crisis of fertilizer energy finance. So on the energy front, 0:10:31.985 --> 0:10:38.215 everybody suffering um on the fertilizer front, everybody's suffering. 0:10:38.429 --> 0:10:43.420 And on the finance side, there's also, you know, huge problems. 0:10:43.770 --> 0:10:46.530 No, indeed, you know, with this secular rising interest rates 0:10:46.530 --> 0:10:49.200 around the world, your your point on financing, you know, 0:10:49.210 --> 0:10:52.140 really resonates. And we think of food in terms of 0:10:52.140 --> 0:10:55.870 harvest and distribution, perhaps don't pay enough attention to this 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:59.010 financial angle, which of course, is closer to our heart 0:10:59.010 --> 0:11:00.680 in the banking sector. And you sort of, you know, 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:03.150 starkly pointed out that the linkages and the risks that 0:11:03.150 --> 0:11:03.839 come with it. 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:06.790 Now, Karen, you said that, you know, India's, you know, 0:11:06.790 --> 0:11:11.020 sort of ad hoc decision to restrict exports of grain 0:11:11.030 --> 0:11:13.470 met with criticism and there's been some back and forth 0:11:13.470 --> 0:11:15.990 and some easing here and there and perhaps china is 0:11:15.990 --> 0:11:20.560 also on the table in some global forum around this now, 0:11:20.570 --> 0:11:21.850 2.5 years ago, 0:11:21.875 --> 0:11:24.665 wh o found itself in a very difficult position around 0:11:24.665 --> 0:11:28.975 the pandemic where people were questioning its effectiveness of leadership, 0:11:28.975 --> 0:11:30.875 whether it was biased here or there and that kind 0:11:30.875 --> 0:11:36.015 of stuff. Does the W FB stand on sounder grounds? 0:11:36.025 --> 0:11:37.965 Is it bringing together all the key actors of the 0:11:37.965 --> 0:11:39.750 world in this critical time? 0:11:40.510 --> 0:11:43.930 So, we actually just had a great victory for the 0:11:43.929 --> 0:11:49.090 World Food Program recently in of all unlikely places, the 0:11:49.090 --> 0:11:52.079 World Trade Organization, the W. T. O. 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:58.530 So up until a few weeks ago, countries like India 0:11:58.530 --> 0:12:02.800 would have been able to ban exports even for the 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:04.179 World Food Program. 0:12:04.750 --> 0:12:09.329 And luckily all countries including India and china voted to 0:12:09.330 --> 0:12:12.540 agree on what they called the W. F. P. Waver, 0:12:13.270 --> 0:12:17.330 which meant that basically countries agreed at the World Trade 0:12:17.330 --> 0:12:24.170 Organization to not allow export bans or export restrictions on 0:12:24.170 --> 0:12:27.730 food stuffs that was being purchased by the W. F. P. 0:12:27.730 --> 0:12:29.460 For its operations. 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.260 So the WFP is actually in a great situation now 0:12:33.260 --> 0:12:36.290 in terms of countries agreeing that they will not do 0:12:36.290 --> 0:12:39.760 anything to restrict W. F. P. S ability to do 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.180 its jobs to source food and to get it to 0:12:42.179 --> 0:12:43.370 the people who need it 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:49.160 where the W. F. P. Is struggling is the numbers 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.640 of hungry people are so out of control that unless 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:56.610 they get much more funding to finance their food distribution 0:12:56.610 --> 0:12:59.540 or cash distribution programs, they're not going to be able 0:12:59.540 --> 0:13:02.820 to actually get to all the hungry people. And you 0:13:02.820 --> 0:13:06.310 have this dreadful situation where they're having to choose one 0:13:06.309 --> 0:13:08.230 hungry person over another 0:13:08.630 --> 0:13:11.750 or basically target those who are on the verge of 0:13:11.750 --> 0:13:16.439 starvation and not get to the usual um people that 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:20.030 they're trying to help. So WFP's problem is less about 0:13:20.030 --> 0:13:23.310 sourcing the food and more about getting the money they 0:13:23.309 --> 0:13:26.000 need or the support they need to finance their food. 0:13:26.470 --> 0:13:30.280 But again here, I think W FPs in an okay situation, 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:34.440 you had a huge announcement by the biden administration in 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:37.939 this Ukraine bill that was adopted by Congress where a 0:13:37.940 --> 0:13:42.660 huge chunk of that Ukraine bill was a few billion 0:13:42.660 --> 0:13:46.900 dollars allocated to emergency food assistance for the W. F. P. 0:13:47.300 --> 0:13:52.120 Um you've seen Germany announced additional money. Um part of 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:55.699 which will go for emergency food aid assistance and a 0:13:55.700 --> 0:13:57.230 number of other countries. 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:02.850 Um Karen earlier, you were saying that uh you know, 0:14:02.850 --> 0:14:03.600 this 0:14:03.610 --> 0:14:04.400 concern 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.420 about food insecurity even in the near term ones did 0:14:07.420 --> 0:14:10.839 not begin with this war in Ukraine. We actually saw 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.630 food prices go up even last year. And and even 0:14:13.630 --> 0:14:15.590 before the pandemic and this was an issue, otherwise it 0:14:15.590 --> 0:14:18.200 would not be, you know, number two on U. N. 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:22.380 Sustainable goals. So I wanted to engage you about the 0:14:22.390 --> 0:14:26.760 structural aspects of food insecurity if I'm not mistaken. I 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:28.100 mean I think there are human document 0:14:28.110 --> 0:14:31.280 Which showed that through the 70s and 80s, even in 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.250 the 90s, the worldwide, you know, hunger rate was going 0:14:34.250 --> 0:14:37.480 down and then over the last decade or so it's 0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:39.910 been going up again, which I find very troubling given 0:14:39.910 --> 0:14:42.520 that world is much more prosperous today than it was 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.760 10 or 20 years ago. So why are we becoming 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:49.170 gradually more food insecure and you know, walk us through 0:14:49.170 --> 0:14:52.400 the you know, all these various structural drivers. 0:14:52.770 --> 0:14:58.310 So indeed um as you rightly mentioned this food insecurity 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:03.280 situation predates both the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine. 0:15:03.290 --> 0:15:06.770 And as you said, I mean we were seeing progress 0:15:06.780 --> 0:15:09.870 including in the 90s. I mean we sort of had 0:15:09.870 --> 0:15:14.340 three decades of great progress where we saw hunger levels 0:15:14.340 --> 0:15:20.250 declining up until about a level of 8% of the 0:15:20.250 --> 0:15:21.480 global population. 0:15:22.250 --> 0:15:25.010 But for the past and I think it's less than 0:15:25.010 --> 0:15:28.150 a decade, I think it's only about five or six years, 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:32.750 we suddenly see this rise in food insecurity again after 0:15:33.370 --> 0:15:36.200 getting so close to wiping out hunger. 0:15:37.310 --> 0:15:41.330 Um so five or six years we've seen an increase. 0:15:41.340 --> 0:15:45.850 The pandemic was by far the biggest setback to global 0:15:45.850 --> 0:15:50.390 food security with more than 100 million people with an 0:15:50.390 --> 0:15:54.350 additional 100 million people going into hunger as a result 0:15:54.350 --> 0:15:58.090 of the pandemic. And now with Ukraine a further, we 0:15:58.090 --> 0:16:02.430 don't know exactly how many but 50-80 million more people 0:16:02.430 --> 0:16:04.490 again being pushed into hunger. 0:16:05.810 --> 0:16:10.260 Why is this happening? Um so I think there are 0:16:10.260 --> 0:16:12.280 three main factors. 0:16:13.190 --> 0:16:16.470 The first is in the last five or six years 0:16:16.470 --> 0:16:20.710 we have experienced more economic slowdowns. I mean today we're 0:16:20.710 --> 0:16:25.290 talking about recessions as well, but many more economic slowdowns 0:16:25.300 --> 0:16:29.490 in the low and middle income countries for various reasons. 0:16:29.490 --> 0:16:33.620 In some cases, it's because of low commodity prices, low 0:16:33.620 --> 0:16:38.650 oil prices, low, low low mineral prices. Um 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:41.670 in other cases it's for other reasons, but we've seen 0:16:41.670 --> 0:16:44.720 these economic slowdowns and they always put a negative dent 0:16:44.730 --> 0:16:45.920 into food security 0:16:46.900 --> 0:16:52.440 the second and the more I think more serious problem 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:57.220 that's with us for the future are the climate shocks, droughts, 0:16:57.230 --> 0:16:59.260 floods and cyclones. 0:17:00.290 --> 0:17:05.100 Climate change has now become one of the main drivers 0:17:05.109 --> 0:17:06.690 of food insecurity 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.000 and this is with us to stay as we know, 0:17:10.010 --> 0:17:12.820 we are not going to meet the 1.5 degree target. 0:17:12.820 --> 0:17:16.669 Climate change will be a reality is already a reality. 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:19.250 It is just going to get worse. And so these 0:17:19.250 --> 0:17:21.400 shocks are going to continue and I mean, we've seen 0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:24.350 it already, you know, we're seeing it now, the droughts, 0:17:24.350 --> 0:17:26.570 the floods undermining harvests 0:17:27.859 --> 0:17:30.359 and then the third driver, which has always been a 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.680 driver and always will be. And I think is probably 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:37.260 the hardest one to eradicate in our lifetimes is conflict 0:17:37.270 --> 0:17:40.250 whenever you see conflict, you see hunger rising. 0:17:41.700 --> 0:17:46.129 So for me there's these three factors that are really 0:17:46.130 --> 0:17:47.969 undermining food security 0:17:48.570 --> 0:17:52.940 with the pandemic. The main problem was access not availability 0:17:53.260 --> 0:17:56.330 access basically meaning there was a lot of food in 0:17:56.330 --> 0:17:59.740 the market but people lost their incomes. So while those 0:17:59.740 --> 0:18:04.360 people sitting in the rich world got safety nets and 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.169 got all support from their government, those sitting in the 0:18:07.170 --> 0:18:10.860 poor world, their governments couldn't afford to help them. And 0:18:10.859 --> 0:18:13.219 so they lost their with the lockdowns, they lost their 0:18:13.220 --> 0:18:16.620 jobs from one day to the next no job, no income, 0:18:16.630 --> 0:18:17.429 no food. 0:18:18.260 --> 0:18:22.710 Um That was really the shock of the covid for 0:18:22.710 --> 0:18:26.660 so many people in low and middle income countries with you, 0:18:26.660 --> 0:18:30.080 the Ukraine issue as we've discussed, there's an availability issue, 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:33.990 there's an access issue. There's these disruptions to grain markets 0:18:33.990 --> 0:18:37.939 with the ports being stopped with countries putting in export bands, 0:18:37.950 --> 0:18:41.340 there's low global stocks, but there's also the fertilizer and 0:18:41.340 --> 0:18:42.439 the energy issue. 0:18:43.980 --> 0:18:46.750 So what do we need to do to fix this 0:18:46.750 --> 0:18:52.100 to stop this horrible reversal of otherwise decades of progress. 0:18:52.109 --> 0:18:55.280 So I think immediately people need cash 0:18:55.990 --> 0:18:58.670 to basically get them over the crisis to be able 0:18:58.670 --> 0:19:05.129 to be able to afford food, um healthcare etcetera. So 0:19:05.140 --> 0:19:11.340 I think we need a massive global social safety net program. 0:19:11.350 --> 0:19:14.310 I think the U. N. Needs to oversee it. But 0:19:14.310 --> 0:19:17.730 I think we need a social safety net program on 0:19:17.730 --> 0:19:20.750 the scale we've never seen before that's going to be 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:23.850 the key factor to help us get over this current crisis. 0:19:24.770 --> 0:19:26.760 But but Karen when you say a social safety net 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:29.170 program only for the short term or you would like 0:19:29.170 --> 0:19:31.040 to see this for the long term to 0:19:34.300 --> 0:19:37.260 we need it for the short term. Getting it for 0:19:37.260 --> 0:19:40.020 the long term is much more political. And there we 0:19:40.020 --> 0:19:44.369 start getting into these discussions about minimum basic incomes who's 0:19:44.369 --> 0:19:47.940 entitled to safety nets, how they should get them. And 0:19:47.940 --> 0:19:52.709 this becomes political. And we see in many countries politicians 0:19:52.710 --> 0:19:57.330 now advocating for these basic minimum income. 0:19:57.619 --> 0:20:00.310 But I think this is a bigger discussion to have. 0:20:00.330 --> 0:20:03.040 What I'm talking about is short term to get us 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:05.800 over the crisis. Even though if we start getting into 0:20:05.800 --> 0:20:09.430 the discussion, I think there starts being a more and 0:20:09.430 --> 0:20:14.480 more persuasive argument in favor of a basic minimum income 0:20:14.790 --> 0:20:19.660 for everyone if we accept that the new norm is 0:20:19.660 --> 0:20:20.410 shocks 0:20:20.910 --> 0:20:24.440 and I think the new norm is shocks, whether they're 0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:29.590 climate shocks, pandemic shocks, conflict shocks. I think this is 0:20:29.590 --> 0:20:32.340 the new norm at least for the coming decades. 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.790 Um Karen just want to pivot this discussion for a 0:20:36.790 --> 0:20:40.420 second just to go back to the point that 0:20:40.950 --> 0:20:44.169 level of global hunger sort of improved for a while 0:20:44.180 --> 0:20:47.540 and then it exacerbated you've pointed out cogently a bunch 0:20:47.540 --> 0:20:51.900 of factors. I wonder what you think of this notion 0:20:51.900 --> 0:20:54.869 that even in terms of crop yield that with the 0:20:54.869 --> 0:20:58.369 Green revolution in the sixties and seventies and as developing 0:20:58.369 --> 0:21:01.390 countries adopted, you know, high yielding fertilizer and so on. 0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:04.860 Um we we saw an improvement in agricultural productivity and 0:21:04.869 --> 0:21:07.950 that's also sort of flattened out, which I find personally 0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:10.409 rather striking given you know, so many 0:21:10.570 --> 0:21:14.390 high tech solutions out there these days from satellite imaging 0:21:14.390 --> 0:21:16.939 and smart irrigation and so on. Um first of all, 0:21:16.940 --> 0:21:18.629 do you agree that, you know, we have sort of 0:21:18.630 --> 0:21:21.850 flattened out in terms of popular around the world or 0:21:21.859 --> 0:21:23.970 is it the case that we still have a lot 0:21:23.970 --> 0:21:26.660 of low hanging fruits in terms of improving agriculture technology 0:21:26.660 --> 0:21:29.710 around the world and improving our food productivity. 0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:32.800 So now we get controversial and we get to this 0:21:32.800 --> 0:21:36.560 link also with our environmental crisis that we currently have. 0:21:36.570 --> 0:21:39.909 So there's no doubt, I think everyone agrees even the 0:21:39.910 --> 0:21:44.060 harshest critics of the Green Revolution agree that the Green 0:21:44.060 --> 0:21:49.480 Revolution is one of the major drivers in having eradicated 0:21:49.480 --> 0:21:54.240 hunger and poverty because of this improvements in yields and 0:21:54.240 --> 0:21:57.600 ability of farmers to go beyond subsistence and to start 0:21:57.600 --> 0:21:58.820 becoming commercial. 0:21:59.790 --> 0:22:05.950 It has created untold environmental problems, not just climate change, 0:22:05.950 --> 0:22:11.300 but biodiversity, loss, pollution. And we are paying for that 0:22:11.300 --> 0:22:14.399 today so that it's now come back to bite us 0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:17.570 and now environmental problems are one of the main drivers 0:22:17.570 --> 0:22:20.490 of food insecurity and poverty, so 0:22:21.050 --> 0:22:25.429 we've got to deal with the consequences of that success, 0:22:26.400 --> 0:22:29.640 I would say it was not only about yield improvements 0:22:29.650 --> 0:22:33.540 and productivity gains and green revolutionary technology. I think there's 0:22:33.540 --> 0:22:36.720 a lot of other factors that were in play. A 0:22:36.720 --> 0:22:41.369 lot of countries like china succeeded not because they improve 0:22:41.369 --> 0:22:46.280 productivity in agriculture, but because they improved productivity productivity in 0:22:46.280 --> 0:22:51.290 non agricultural sectors, manufacturing services, infrastructure, 0:22:52.070 --> 0:22:56.270 china moved people out of agriculture as a way to develop. 0:22:57.010 --> 0:22:59.219 That's quite different to what you see some of the 0:22:59.220 --> 0:23:03.620 latin american countries having achieved where they really pushed agriculture 0:23:03.630 --> 0:23:08.780 as the engine of growth and their engine of economic development, Brazil, 0:23:08.790 --> 0:23:15.840 Argentina Uruguay, all these countries, Costa rica, you know, agriculture 0:23:15.840 --> 0:23:18.730 was the way that they got out of hunger and poverty, 0:23:19.580 --> 0:23:22.350 but it's not a universal story. There's a lot of 0:23:22.350 --> 0:23:26.500 other countries that, you know, Vietnam China pursued a different 0:23:26.500 --> 0:23:31.030 model that's been arguably more successful because they've now got 0:23:31.030 --> 0:23:33.020 very diversified economies. 0:23:34.170 --> 0:23:35.120 Um 0:23:36.590 --> 0:23:41.960 technology has been a huge factor, but not just crop technologies, 0:23:41.960 --> 0:23:46.000 not just technologies that improved yields, technologies that improved access 0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:50.060 to energy or improved mobility or made it easier to 0:23:50.070 --> 0:23:53.970 apply machinery technology. All of these other factors have also 0:23:53.970 --> 0:23:54.960 played a role. 0:23:55.619 --> 0:23:59.880