1
00:00:02,819 --> 00:00:06,019
Speaker 1: Welcome to Cope Time, a podcast series on Markets and

2
00:00:06,030 --> 00:00:10,119
Speaker 1: Economies from devious group research. I'm chief economist, welcoming you

3
00:00:10,130 --> 00:00:12,789
Speaker 1: to our 107th episode.

4
00:00:13,689 --> 00:00:16,100
Speaker 1: We've been doing this podcast for well over three years.

5
00:00:16,110 --> 00:00:19,379
Speaker 1: And during this period, no episode has garnered as much

6
00:00:19,389 --> 00:00:23,500
Speaker 1: attention as episode 52 the one we had with Ku Mahony,

7
00:00:23,510 --> 00:00:27,860
Speaker 1: distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute National University of Singapore.

8
00:00:28,219 --> 00:00:32,209
Speaker 1: Mr Mwai has been privileged to enjoy two distinguished careers,

9
00:00:32,470 --> 00:00:36,339
Speaker 1: two distinct and distinguished ones in diplomacy, which started way

10
00:00:36,348 --> 00:00:39,489
Speaker 1: back in 1971 all the way in 2004 and in

11
00:00:39,500 --> 00:00:44,638
Speaker 1: academia from 2004, 2019, he remains a prolific writer, having

12
00:00:44,650 --> 00:00:48,849
Speaker 1: published eight well received books and he's also a very

13
00:00:48,860 --> 00:00:51,590
Speaker 1: well covered speaker. You can catch many of his landmark

14
00:00:51,598 --> 00:00:55,990
Speaker 1: speeches on the internet. Kish Malai. A warm welcome back

15
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:56,689
Speaker 1: to Kobe time.

16
00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:58,250
Speaker 2: My pleasure.

17
00:00:58,900 --> 00:01:01,069
Speaker 2: It's great to be happy to be with you.

18
00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,189
Speaker 1: It's great to have you as well. Uh I wish

19
00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:04,970
Speaker 1: we were doing this in person with a warm cup of,

20
00:01:05,199 --> 00:01:07,470
Speaker 1: but I think this will have to do today. Uh

21
00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:11,110
Speaker 1: I'm going to start by playing back something you said

22
00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,529
Speaker 1: at the beginning of your previous appearance on Coy time

23
00:01:13,699 --> 00:01:17,300
Speaker 1: for context. This was back in April 2021. You had

24
00:01:17,309 --> 00:01:21,440
Speaker 1: just published an op ed on ft about the Biden

25
00:01:21,449 --> 00:01:23,550
Speaker 1: administration's approach toward China.

26
00:01:24,550 --> 00:01:28,279
Speaker 2: Want to emphasize that I want Biden to succeed.

27
00:01:29,309 --> 00:01:34,739
Speaker 2: My nightmare is that in 2024 we will see the

28
00:01:34,750 --> 00:01:36,260
Speaker 2: return of Donald Trump

29
00:01:37,279 --> 00:01:38,889
Speaker 2: and I'm not even exaggerating

30
00:01:39,779 --> 00:01:41,349
Speaker 2: because at the end of the day, he did get

31
00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,190
Speaker 2: 74 75 million votes.

32
00:01:43,919 --> 00:01:47,610
Speaker 2: And if Biden gets it wrong, the world is in trouble.

33
00:01:48,129 --> 00:01:52,730
Speaker 2: So our interest including in Singapore and in Southeast Asia

34
00:01:52,739 --> 00:01:56,150
Speaker 2: is to help Biden succeed by carrying on with Trump's

35
00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,129
Speaker 2: policies on China

36
00:01:58,830 --> 00:02:03,949
Speaker 2: when they clearly have failed in every sense of the term.

37
00:02:03,959 --> 00:02:05,470
Speaker 2: And you know, as I explained in my book, as

38
00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:09,820
Speaker 2: China won, the fundamental problem about the contest that Donald

39
00:02:09,830 --> 00:02:13,970
Speaker 2: Trump launched against China is that he launched this contest

40
00:02:13,979 --> 00:02:15,710
Speaker 2: without a strategy.

41
00:02:17,130 --> 00:02:21,630
Speaker 1: Ok. No strategy. And you want Biden to succeed. It's

42
00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,899
Speaker 1: been 2.5 years since that conversation. What's your

43
00:02:24,910 --> 00:02:25,339
Speaker 2: take?

44
00:02:26,679 --> 00:02:31,690
Speaker 2: Well, the unfortunately, my nightmare might come true.

45
00:02:32,570 --> 00:02:36,300
Speaker 2: Uh The possibility of Donald Trump being elected

46
00:02:37,059 --> 00:02:38,259
Speaker 2: is not zero.

47
00:02:39,538 --> 00:02:42,699
Speaker 2: In fact, it could be as high as 30 or 40%.

48
00:02:43,288 --> 00:02:45,639
Speaker 2: You know, some of the surveys show that he's standing

49
00:02:45,649 --> 00:02:48,898
Speaker 2: in the polls uh is the same as Joe Biden.

50
00:02:49,899 --> 00:02:52,429
Speaker 2: I mean, it's unfair because Joe Biden overall

51
00:02:53,199 --> 00:02:56,839
Speaker 2: uh hasn't done a bad job uh and he's kept

52
00:02:56,850 --> 00:03:01,240
Speaker 2: the economy going and uh done many right things tried

53
00:03:01,250 --> 00:03:04,728
Speaker 2: to stabilize the US China relationship in some ways.

54
00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:05,929
Speaker 2: But

55
00:03:06,538 --> 00:03:07,388
Speaker 2: sadly,

56
00:03:08,169 --> 00:03:09,300
Speaker 2: um

57
00:03:10,330 --> 00:03:12,330
Speaker 2: but the chances of him losing,

58
00:03:12,949 --> 00:03:15,580
Speaker 2: uh not again, as I said, not zero.

59
00:03:16,970 --> 00:03:21,539
Speaker 2: So we are going to go through uh in the next,

60
00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:28,029
Speaker 2: let's say this now, September 2023 the elections are November 2024.

61
00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:30,009
Speaker 2: I guarantee you

62
00:03:31,070 --> 00:03:32,339
Speaker 2: a roller coaster ride

63
00:03:34,029 --> 00:03:37,710
Speaker 2: in both in terms of American politics.

64
00:03:38,770 --> 00:03:40,660
Speaker 2: Lots of surprising things are happening.

65
00:03:41,380 --> 00:03:43,350
Speaker 2: I mean, I give you 11 of the most remarkable

66
00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:47,500
Speaker 2: things about the American political scene today. A majority of

67
00:03:47,509 --> 00:03:51,589
Speaker 2: Republicans don't want Donald Trump to be the candidate.

68
00:03:52,509 --> 00:03:53,759
Speaker 2: But what's the likelihood

69
00:03:54,490 --> 00:03:55,979
Speaker 2: Donald Trump would be the candidate?

70
00:03:56,830 --> 00:03:59,600
Speaker 2: Now, a majority of Democrats don't want Joe Biden to

71
00:03:59,610 --> 00:04:00,470
Speaker 2: be the candidate.

72
00:04:02,259 --> 00:04:04,460
Speaker 2: What's gonna be the outcome? Joe Biden is gonna be

73
00:04:04,470 --> 00:04:05,059
Speaker 2: the candidate.

74
00:04:05,940 --> 00:04:07,679
Speaker 2: So these are the kind of strange things that are

75
00:04:07,690 --> 00:04:11,830
Speaker 2: happening uh in the American uh political scene.

76
00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:16,380
Speaker 2: So we have to be ready, you know, for some

77
00:04:16,390 --> 00:04:21,450
Speaker 2: real shocks and surprises uh over the next 14 months.

78
00:04:22,309 --> 00:04:24,359
Speaker 1: And when you say shocks and surprises, you mean, not

79
00:04:24,369 --> 00:04:26,690
Speaker 1: only in the context of the US politics, but is

80
00:04:26,700 --> 00:04:29,118
Speaker 1: repercussion then feeding into us foreign policy.

81
00:04:29,899 --> 00:04:33,469
Speaker 2: Absolutely. Uh see, sadly,

82
00:04:34,399 --> 00:04:38,570
Speaker 2: uh one way uh for American presidents

83
00:04:39,359 --> 00:04:43,179
Speaker 2: uh to win elections uh is to beat up uh

84
00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:46,599
Speaker 2: on other countries. So I can let me just give

85
00:04:46,609 --> 00:04:50,500
Speaker 2: you a simple example, 30 30 years ago, 31 years ago,

86
00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:54,730
Speaker 2: when Bill Clinton was running for the presidency,

87
00:04:55,420 --> 00:04:56,428
Speaker 2: what did he do?

88
00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:01,489
Speaker 2: He in his campaign said, unlike George HW Bush,

89
00:05:02,690 --> 00:05:03,578
Speaker 2: I will not

90
00:05:04,238 --> 00:05:06,409
Speaker 2: coddle the butches of Beijing.

91
00:05:07,529 --> 00:05:12,700
Speaker 2: So he used China as a way of attacking uh

92
00:05:13,769 --> 00:05:16,359
Speaker 2: uh George George HW Bush and you know, he won.

93
00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:20,049
Speaker 2: But fortunately, he did go on the coddle the leaders

94
00:05:20,059 --> 00:05:23,329
Speaker 2: of Beijing incidentally. Uh but that was a different time

95
00:05:24,149 --> 00:05:27,929
Speaker 2: now, I am confident that China will still be a

96
00:05:27,940 --> 00:05:30,959
Speaker 2: factor in the 2024 elections.

97
00:05:31,609 --> 00:05:34,519
Speaker 2: There's no doubt that Donald Trump will accuse Joe Biden

98
00:05:34,529 --> 00:05:36,970
Speaker 2: of being soft on China

99
00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,250
Speaker 2: and the Biden administration will have to prove

100
00:05:40,940 --> 00:05:43,890
Speaker 2: that is not soft on China by taking more measures

101
00:05:43,899 --> 00:05:47,579
Speaker 2: against China. So China will become the uh the biggest

102
00:05:47,589 --> 00:05:51,130
Speaker 2: political football in the 2024 election.

103
00:05:52,779 --> 00:05:55,488
Speaker 1: You said earlier when you were assessing the Biden presidency

104
00:05:55,500 --> 00:05:58,910
Speaker 1: that it has done a constructive job in stabilizing the

105
00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,850
Speaker 1: China US relationship. I'm struck by that because I think

106
00:06:02,859 --> 00:06:06,649
Speaker 1: about the headlines accumulated over the last couple of years.

107
00:06:06,660 --> 00:06:09,250
Speaker 1: I see almost one way street in terms of more

108
00:06:09,260 --> 00:06:13,029
Speaker 1: and more export restrictions from the US and more support

109
00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:16,649
Speaker 1: for Taiwan and so on. So what are the parameters

110
00:06:16,660 --> 00:06:18,109
Speaker 1: that you are looking at when you say that they

111
00:06:18,119 --> 00:06:20,868
Speaker 1: have actually done a commendable job in stabilizing the relationship?

112
00:06:22,010 --> 00:06:26,529
Speaker 2: Well, I would say that one good thing that the

113
00:06:26,540 --> 00:06:31,799
Speaker 2: Biden administration done has re is to resume normal communications

114
00:06:31,809 --> 00:06:32,500
Speaker 2: with China.

115
00:06:33,140 --> 00:06:37,029
Speaker 2: So as you know, in this year, 2023 Lincoln

116
00:06:37,829 --> 00:06:42,200
Speaker 2: uh has gone uh to China, uh Janet Yellen

117
00:06:42,829 --> 00:06:47,339
Speaker 2: uh has gone to China. Uh Most recently Gina Raymundo

118
00:06:47,859 --> 00:06:51,019
Speaker 2: has gone to China. So at least he tried to

119
00:06:51,029 --> 00:06:53,760
Speaker 2: uh keep the dialogue going. But of course, this doesn't

120
00:06:53,769 --> 00:06:55,039
Speaker 2: mean by the way

121
00:06:55,799 --> 00:07:01,089
Speaker 2: that the whole US campaign to stop China from becoming

122
00:07:01,100 --> 00:07:04,308
Speaker 2: number one has stopped. It hasn't because there's something that's

123
00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:08,690
Speaker 2: beyond Trump and Biden. And that is that within the

124
00:07:08,700 --> 00:07:15,959
Speaker 2: American establishment, there is a remarkable consensus, a remarkable consensus

125
00:07:16,470 --> 00:07:19,970
Speaker 2: that the US has about 10 years to stop China

126
00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:21,470
Speaker 2: from becoming number one.

127
00:07:22,119 --> 00:07:24,399
Speaker 2: And you know, that's what my book has. China one

128
00:07:24,410 --> 00:07:25,089
Speaker 2: is about

129
00:07:25,809 --> 00:07:30,579
Speaker 2: that. There is a incredible focus determination

130
00:07:31,299 --> 00:07:35,230
Speaker 2: now on the part of the American establishment to use

131
00:07:35,239 --> 00:07:38,589
Speaker 2: the next 10 years to stop China because they know

132
00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:41,440
Speaker 2: that once China becomes number one and it can become

133
00:07:41,450 --> 00:07:44,549
Speaker 2: number one, then everything changes in the world.

134
00:07:45,309 --> 00:07:48,359
Speaker 2: So that is uh so regardless of whether or not

135
00:07:48,369 --> 00:07:53,429
Speaker 2: Trump wins or Biden wins or Vivek Ramaswami wins or

136
00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:55,679
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris wins, it doesn't matter.

137
00:07:56,540 --> 00:08:01,989
Speaker 2: And it comes to this uh geopolitical contests between us

138
00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,540
Speaker 2: and China. It goes beyond personalities and this is something

139
00:08:05,829 --> 00:08:07,630
Speaker 2: that I've been predicting for a long time

140
00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:10,690
Speaker 2: and nothing has changed the cause of this.

141
00:08:12,059 --> 00:08:15,869
Speaker 1: But sure, in the podcast that we had two years ago,

142
00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,959
Speaker 1: your assertion was that the Trump administration did not have

143
00:08:18,970 --> 00:08:20,799
Speaker 1: a strategy vis a vis China, they were going a

144
00:08:20,809 --> 00:08:23,769
Speaker 1: bit helder shelter. Um But it seems to me that

145
00:08:23,779 --> 00:08:26,269
Speaker 1: you now you're painting a picture where there is a

146
00:08:26,279 --> 00:08:30,290
Speaker 1: bipartisan consensus and there is a pretty cohesive strategic view

147
00:08:30,299 --> 00:08:31,910
Speaker 1: of how to counter

148
00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:32,309
Speaker 2: China.

149
00:08:33,109 --> 00:08:37,708
Speaker 2: There is a bipartisan consensus to counter China,

150
00:08:38,359 --> 00:08:42,809
Speaker 2: but there is no still no strategy and what the

151
00:08:42,818 --> 00:08:44,879
Speaker 2: UN the, the sadly and I and I say this

152
00:08:44,888 --> 00:08:47,939
Speaker 2: is a friend of the United States, the United States

153
00:08:47,948 --> 00:08:52,929
Speaker 2: is carrying out ad hoc action after ad hoc action

154
00:08:53,518 --> 00:08:56,968
Speaker 2: without having a clear strategy on how you're gonna stop China.

155
00:08:56,979 --> 00:09:00,698
Speaker 2: So for example, take the trade tariffs uh that Trump

156
00:09:00,708 --> 00:09:04,309
Speaker 2: uh administration uh put against China right

157
00:09:04,609 --> 00:09:09,689
Speaker 2: now, if you ask any, any sensible economists, which by

158
00:09:09,700 --> 00:09:12,710
Speaker 2: the way would include people like Janet Yellen, uh will

159
00:09:12,719 --> 00:09:15,840
Speaker 2: these trade tariffs hurt China more or hurt the American

160
00:09:15,849 --> 00:09:18,919
Speaker 2: consumers more? And the simple answer is going to hurt

161
00:09:18,929 --> 00:09:21,858
Speaker 2: the American consumers more? In fact, Joe Biden said so

162
00:09:22,179 --> 00:09:26,049
Speaker 2: in his election campaign, but has the Biden administration been

163
00:09:26,059 --> 00:09:29,520
Speaker 2: able to lift the sanctions on trade sanctions on China?

164
00:09:29,530 --> 00:09:30,299
Speaker 2: No way,

165
00:09:30,929 --> 00:09:35,109
Speaker 2: no way. See that reflects a lack of strategy. And similarly,

166
00:09:35,119 --> 00:09:38,849
Speaker 2: you know, all these acts to stop China's technological development,

167
00:09:38,859 --> 00:09:42,770
Speaker 2: denying them the most advanced chips. You know, there's a

168
00:09:42,780 --> 00:09:44,108
Speaker 2: long history

169
00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:49,210
Speaker 2: of countries trying to stop China's technological development and it

170
00:09:49,219 --> 00:09:52,549
Speaker 2: has never succeeded. I may give you a simple example,

171
00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:56,309
Speaker 2: the Soviet Union thought that they could keep, remain much

172
00:09:56,320 --> 00:10:01,709
Speaker 2: stronger than China by depriving China of uh access to

173
00:10:01,719 --> 00:10:03,849
Speaker 2: nuclear weapon technology.

174
00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:08,270
Speaker 2: Guess what? Within a couple of years, the Chinese had it,

175
00:10:09,169 --> 00:10:11,580
Speaker 2: right. So, I mean, I mean, all this, I mean,

176
00:10:11,590 --> 00:10:17,260
Speaker 2: China is now producing more stem graduates I suspect than

177
00:10:17,270 --> 00:10:19,299
Speaker 2: the rest of the world combined in some ways. You know,

178
00:10:19,969 --> 00:10:23,559
Speaker 2: and the idea that you can stop China from becoming

179
00:10:23,570 --> 00:10:27,840
Speaker 2: a scientific power is absurd. You know, the the the

180
00:10:27,849 --> 00:10:32,489
Speaker 2: Americans refuse to collaborate with China in the space program.

181
00:10:32,549 --> 00:10:35,520
Speaker 2: Look at what China has done, build its own space station,

182
00:10:36,359 --> 00:10:39,169
Speaker 2: you know, so it it is actually this is where

183
00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:44,570
Speaker 2: uh the fundamental problem with people in the American administration

184
00:10:44,580 --> 00:10:46,830
Speaker 2: is that they don't have a long term mindset.

185
00:10:47,530 --> 00:10:50,289
Speaker 2: They don't realize that the Chinese are looking to see

186
00:10:50,299 --> 00:10:52,530
Speaker 2: where they're going to be where the world is going

187
00:10:52,539 --> 00:10:56,478
Speaker 2: to be 10 years, 20 years down the road. And you,

188
00:10:56,489 --> 00:10:59,890
Speaker 2: you ask the Biden administration, people there are so focused

189
00:10:59,900 --> 00:11:03,520
Speaker 2: on the November 2024 election. They can't look beyond that.

190
00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,239
Speaker 2: And so that, that, that actually puts the US as

191
00:11:07,250 --> 00:11:10,830
Speaker 2: a strategic disadvantage vis a vis China. It doesn't mean

192
00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:15,530
Speaker 2: by the way that the US can't do significant damage

193
00:11:15,539 --> 00:11:19,929
Speaker 2: or temporary damage to the Chinese economy. Can we try

194
00:11:20,479 --> 00:11:23,690
Speaker 2: but will that stop China's growth? I don't think it will,

195
00:11:25,789 --> 00:11:30,760
Speaker 1: it is a remarkable that this issue about technological supremacy

196
00:11:30,770 --> 00:11:33,919
Speaker 1: is become such a focus and obsession of the media.

197
00:11:34,010 --> 00:11:36,260
Speaker 1: I'm sure you've seen in the last few days uh

198
00:11:36,270 --> 00:11:40,598
Speaker 1: rather historical coverage in Western media about Huawei's sort of

199
00:11:40,609 --> 00:11:42,580
Speaker 1: return to the smartphone scene

200
00:11:42,690 --> 00:11:45,150
Speaker 1: with the new phone. And everybody's question, how on earth

201
00:11:45,159 --> 00:11:47,640
Speaker 1: did they get the chips or the know how to

202
00:11:47,650 --> 00:11:49,819
Speaker 1: do it because Huawei was supposed to be on a

203
00:11:49,830 --> 00:11:53,569
Speaker 1: terminal decline after the Trump administration's um you know, ban

204
00:11:53,580 --> 00:11:56,119
Speaker 1: a few years ago. So I think that adds to

205
00:11:56,130 --> 00:11:59,489
Speaker 1: your point that not only on nuclear technology or space technology,

206
00:12:00,010 --> 00:12:02,619
Speaker 1: even the one that is absolutely critical. Now, the chip

207
00:12:02,630 --> 00:12:05,590
Speaker 1: technology in the frontier of electronics, uh it's not like,

208
00:12:05,599 --> 00:12:09,039
Speaker 1: you know, they will be fully strangled, uh damage will

209
00:12:09,049 --> 00:12:11,369
Speaker 1: be done. Not no question, but that may be just

210
00:12:11,380 --> 00:12:14,108
Speaker 1: a matter of slowing down as opposed to them forever.

211
00:12:14,409 --> 00:12:16,599
Speaker 2: Um By the way, you're right, you're right to mention

212
00:12:16,609 --> 00:12:21,289
Speaker 2: this Huawei case. I must say, I'm really surprised. I thought,

213
00:12:21,299 --> 00:12:23,469
Speaker 2: you know, I I, by the way, I actually conducted

214
00:12:23,479 --> 00:12:27,239
Speaker 2: a dialogue once with the founder of Huawei Mr on,

215
00:12:27,250 --> 00:12:29,358
Speaker 2: on uh V

216
00:12:30,109 --> 00:12:33,000
Speaker 2: and I was very impressed by him, you know, he's

217
00:12:33,010 --> 00:12:39,679
Speaker 2: very dedicated and, and the what, what the Americans underestimate

218
00:12:40,570 --> 00:12:44,140
Speaker 2: uh is the determination of the Chinese people.

219
00:12:44,859 --> 00:12:50,090
Speaker 2: And the Americans also don't understand that they, when they

220
00:12:50,099 --> 00:12:52,348
Speaker 2: carry out actions against Huawei,

221
00:12:53,260 --> 00:12:57,750
Speaker 2: they're pouring salt into open Chinese wounds.

222
00:12:58,380 --> 00:13:02,640
Speaker 2: Then these open Chinese wounds come from the century of

223
00:13:02,650 --> 00:13:07,630
Speaker 2: humiliation that China suffered from 18 42 to 1949.

224
00:13:08,450 --> 00:13:11,679
Speaker 2: And when you carry out actions like Huawei, they say

225
00:13:11,690 --> 00:13:14,289
Speaker 2: that goes to the West once again,

226
00:13:14,950 --> 00:13:16,719
Speaker 2: they want to beat up China,

227
00:13:17,460 --> 00:13:20,650
Speaker 2: they want to slap China down, but this time they

228
00:13:20,659 --> 00:13:21,609
Speaker 2: cannot succeed.

229
00:13:22,479 --> 00:13:27,780
Speaker 2: So I mean, the national determination uh in, in China is, is,

230
00:13:27,789 --> 00:13:31,869
Speaker 2: is absolutely amazing. And so the, the, the uh the

231
00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:36,969
Speaker 2: I wish that the Americans leaders who make a bigger

232
00:13:36,979 --> 00:13:39,530
Speaker 2: effort to studying Chinese history. And by the way, I

233
00:13:39,539 --> 00:13:42,309
Speaker 2: have a free a course for them that they can

234
00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,089
Speaker 2: enroll in and they will see that they got to

235
00:13:46,099 --> 00:13:48,750
Speaker 2: step into the shoes of the Chinese leaders

236
00:13:49,179 --> 00:13:53,510
Speaker 2: and understand that the Chinese cannot allow China to go

237
00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:54,369
Speaker 2: backwards again.

238
00:13:56,099 --> 00:13:59,780
Speaker 1: But it sure I've seen people draw parallels between us

239
00:13:59,789 --> 00:14:03,789
Speaker 1: restrictions on Soviet Union in the sixties, seventies eighties on

240
00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,699
Speaker 1: er technology. And as a result, uh the view is

241
00:14:06,710 --> 00:14:10,400
Speaker 1: that the Soviets actually did have a huge gap with

242
00:14:10,409 --> 00:14:14,020
Speaker 1: respect to frontier technology, notwithstanding their success in the space program.

243
00:14:14,030 --> 00:14:15,820
Speaker 1: And the view is that this is going to be

244
00:14:15,830 --> 00:14:16,489
Speaker 1: something that can be

245
00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,510
Speaker 1: replicate in the context of China that if you have

246
00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:24,270
Speaker 1: very strong trade barriers for China to access frontier technology,

247
00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,250
Speaker 1: it will not be able to develop on its own.

248
00:14:26,479 --> 00:14:29,109
Speaker 1: Um Is your view that China will also have a

249
00:14:29,119 --> 00:14:32,179
Speaker 1: bit of a sputnik moment that the Americans had after

250
00:14:32,489 --> 00:14:35,510
Speaker 1: a successful launch and they would rather starve than miss

251
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:36,219
Speaker 1: out on the frontier.

252
00:14:36,229 --> 00:14:39,729
Speaker 2: Technologies. Well, I'm, I'm actually very, very glad that you're

253
00:14:39,739 --> 00:14:44,710
Speaker 2: bringing up this uh historical analogy because if indeed

254
00:14:45,039 --> 00:14:50,530
Speaker 2: uh the Biden administration or the US government is using

255
00:14:50,539 --> 00:14:54,950
Speaker 2: the old playbook against the Soviet Union and saying, oh,

256
00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:57,890
Speaker 2: we can use the same playbook that succeeded with the

257
00:14:57,900 --> 00:15:01,359
Speaker 2: Soviet Union against China, then they're getting it that wrong

258
00:15:01,739 --> 00:15:06,270
Speaker 2: because the Soviet Union in many ways, had self isolated.

259
00:15:07,010 --> 00:15:09,539
Speaker 2: We didn't trade with the rest of the world. Its

260
00:15:09,549 --> 00:15:13,969
Speaker 2: economy wasn't engaged with the rest of the world. And

261
00:15:13,979 --> 00:15:17,630
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, what caused the collapse

262
00:15:18,099 --> 00:15:23,219
Speaker 2: of the Soviet Union was not the access to advanced technology.

263
00:15:23,690 --> 00:15:29,260
Speaker 2: It was the fact that the economy couldn't compete with

264
00:15:29,270 --> 00:15:32,559
Speaker 2: the American economy just couldn't grow as fast

265
00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:35,650
Speaker 2: and, and you can, you know, was stagnant, couldn't produce

266
00:15:35,659 --> 00:15:38,409
Speaker 2: the consumer goods and so on and so forth and

267
00:15:38,419 --> 00:15:43,570
Speaker 2: certainly could not manufacture more than the United States of America.

268
00:15:44,299 --> 00:15:47,070
Speaker 2: Now let me ask you a simple question.

269
00:15:48,570 --> 00:15:53,380
Speaker 2: Who has a larger manufacturing capability today? Is it the

270
00:15:53,390 --> 00:15:56,260
Speaker 2: United States or is it the China?

271
00:15:56,979 --> 00:15:59,270
Speaker 2: Now let me ask you a second question.

272
00:16:00,010 --> 00:16:03,179
Speaker 2: Who does more trade with the rest of the world

273
00:16:03,820 --> 00:16:06,640
Speaker 2: in the old days? The United States over the Soviet

274
00:16:06,650 --> 00:16:07,159
Speaker 2: Union

275
00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,090
Speaker 2: today is China over the United States of America.

276
00:16:11,830 --> 00:16:14,039
Speaker 2: And then you ask your third question

277
00:16:15,460 --> 00:16:19,669
Speaker 2: between the United States and Soviet Union, which country was willing,

278
00:16:19,679 --> 00:16:22,869
Speaker 2: willing to sign free trade agreements in the Cold War.

279
00:16:23,510 --> 00:16:28,219
Speaker 2: It was the United States, not the Soviet Union today.

280
00:16:28,229 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 2: It is China and not the United States. So these

281
00:16:32,289 --> 00:16:37,719
Speaker 2: are amazing differences and if there's one country

282
00:16:39,039 --> 00:16:42,710
Speaker 2: that has studied the collapse of the Soviet Union

283
00:16:43,570 --> 00:16:49,099
Speaker 2: more than any other country in the world, it is China.

284
00:16:50,270 --> 00:16:53,159
Speaker 2: And what's the first lesson that the Chinese took from

285
00:16:53,169 --> 00:16:57,419
Speaker 2: the collapse of the Soviet Union? Never close up. The economy,

286
00:16:58,130 --> 00:17:01,140
Speaker 2: always engage with the rest of the world.

287
00:17:01,799 --> 00:17:03,500
Speaker 2: And it's sort of bizarre

288
00:17:04,198 --> 00:17:07,908
Speaker 2: that in some ways it is the United States that's

289
00:17:07,917 --> 00:17:10,828
Speaker 2: behaving more like the Soviet Union, for example, by not

290
00:17:11,420 --> 00:17:14,709
Speaker 2: by refusing to sign free trade agreements and China has.

291
00:17:14,719 --> 00:17:16,989
Speaker 2: But having said that, let me emphasize that that the

292
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:22,780
Speaker 2: United States still remains a formidable economic power, a formidable

293
00:17:22,790 --> 00:17:29,790
Speaker 2: political power, a formidable uh intellectual uh power in terms

294
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:31,669
Speaker 2: of soft power and so on and so forth. So

295
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,949
Speaker 2: it would be a huge mistake for China to underestimate

296
00:17:34,959 --> 00:17:36,229
Speaker 2: the United States of America.

297
00:17:37,969 --> 00:17:41,060
Speaker 1: I switch gear a little bit and talk about the

298
00:17:41,069 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 1: conflict of the moment, the war in Ukraine. Um in sequence,

299
00:17:46,010 --> 00:17:49,169
Speaker 1: you know, what is China's strategy? Vis a vis the Russians.

300
00:17:49,180 --> 00:17:51,399
Speaker 1: And what is America's endgame? Vis a vis the Russians.

301
00:17:52,219 --> 00:17:55,829
Speaker 2: Let me begin by saying that in the long run,

302
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,698
Speaker 2: the Ukraine conflict will be seen as a sideshow,

303
00:17:59,729 --> 00:18:04,079
Speaker 2: that's not a real contest. And in some ways, uh

304
00:18:04,089 --> 00:18:07,579
Speaker 2: the United States is doing itself a disfavor

305
00:18:08,219 --> 00:18:09,030
Speaker 2: by

306
00:18:09,709 --> 00:18:13,188
Speaker 2: dragging out this Ukraine, uh, conflict. And I say the

307
00:18:13,199 --> 00:18:17,020
Speaker 2: United States dragging out the Ukraine conflict because without American

308
00:18:17,030 --> 00:18:21,630
Speaker 2: support for Ukraine, the war wouldn't last as long as

309
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:22,439
Speaker 2: it has.

310
00:18:23,099 --> 00:18:26,400
Speaker 2: And, uh, it is not going to be the fundamental

311
00:18:26,410 --> 00:18:29,708
Speaker 2: mover of world history. It's gonna be, it's gonna be

312
00:18:29,719 --> 00:18:33,949
Speaker 2: a major distraction, but this war could have been avoided.

313
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,930
Speaker 2: And no, you, all you have to do is watch

314
00:18:37,939 --> 00:18:42,010
Speaker 2: the video of John Scheimer, which has now been watched

315
00:18:42,020 --> 00:18:46,530
Speaker 2: 40 million times over 40 million times. And you get

316
00:18:46,540 --> 00:18:50,810
Speaker 2: a sense that in some ways, if the Europeans had

317
00:18:50,819 --> 00:18:52,010
Speaker 2: been wiser

318
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:57,050
Speaker 2: and worked out ways and means of integrating Russia into

319
00:18:57,060 --> 00:19:01,670
Speaker 2: not the European Union but into the European community, create

320
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:05,650
Speaker 2: a common European House. As Gorbachev said, then this war

321
00:19:05,660 --> 00:19:09,709
Speaker 2: could have been avoided. What this war shows more than

322
00:19:09,719 --> 00:19:15,050
Speaker 2: anything else is the geopolitical incompetence uh of Europe.

323
00:19:15,890 --> 00:19:18,930
Speaker 2: And, and yeah, it's a tragedy because if Europe had

324
00:19:18,939 --> 00:19:23,639
Speaker 2: had a more independent policy and found ways and means

325
00:19:23,650 --> 00:19:27,939
Speaker 2: of accommodating Russian concerns without owing to Russia, by the way,

326
00:19:27,949 --> 00:19:30,239
Speaker 2: you don't have to count out Russia, but you can

327
00:19:30,250 --> 00:19:34,369
Speaker 2: give it the space and find a compromise solution. Uh

328
00:19:34,380 --> 00:19:39,180
Speaker 2: on Ukraine, this war could future historians will recall that

329
00:19:39,189 --> 00:19:41,400
Speaker 2: this war could have been avoided,

330
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,129
Speaker 2: you know, but unfortunately,

331
00:19:44,790 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 2: uh Europe no longer has a sort of strong, powerful

332
00:19:48,530 --> 00:19:53,909
Speaker 2: leaders like Margaret Thatcher, like uh Francois, Mitterrand like he

333
00:19:54,579 --> 00:19:58,060
Speaker 2: like he Schmidt, you know, no longer has that.

334
00:19:58,670 --> 00:20:02,198
Speaker 2: And so that's why this war is dragging on. And

335
00:20:02,209 --> 00:20:05,349
Speaker 2: by the one clear factor in this war is that

336
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 2: Putin is definitely not going to do anything until November 2024.

337
00:20:10,130 --> 00:20:13,659
Speaker 2: Because if Trump wins, then Putin wins

338
00:20:17,170 --> 00:20:21,140
Speaker 1: on the Chinese side of the dynamic. Well, the

339
00:20:21,150 --> 00:20:24,859
Speaker 2: Chinese are very, very unhappy about this Ukraine war.

340
00:20:25,619 --> 00:20:28,099
Speaker 2: They, if they had a choice, they would rather that

341
00:20:28,109 --> 00:20:32,869
Speaker 2: Putin didn't stop this uh invasion of Ukraine because there

342
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:37,099
Speaker 2: it is in the long term strategic interest of China

343
00:20:37,109 --> 00:20:43,750
Speaker 2: to see Europe emerge as an independent political poem that

344
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:48,069
Speaker 2: you that China can deal with as an autonomous geopolitical actor.

345
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:51,300
Speaker 2: But as a result of the Ukraine War,

346
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,989
Speaker 2: the Europeans have become far more dependent on Americans for

347
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,489
Speaker 2: their protection, certainly against Russia

348
00:20:59,199 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 2: and they have become in some ways uh geopolitically compliant

349
00:21:05,089 --> 00:21:07,670
Speaker 2: uh to American wishes. And if you want proof of this,

350
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,030
Speaker 2: just take a look at the case of Italy, right.

351
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,750
Speaker 2: Italy was the only G7 country that was brave enough

352
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,469
Speaker 2: to have an independent foreign policy and joining the Belt

353
00:21:17,479 --> 00:21:22,310
Speaker 2: and Road initiative today. Then the Italian government is under

354
00:21:22,319 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 2: so much pressure from Washington DC that it feels that

355
00:21:26,130 --> 00:21:28,930
Speaker 2: it has to withdraw from the Belt and Road initiative

356
00:21:29,319 --> 00:21:34,649
Speaker 2: even though it's in Italy's national interests

357
00:21:35,339 --> 00:21:39,609
Speaker 2: to stay in the BR I because if Italy loses

358
00:21:39,619 --> 00:21:42,050
Speaker 2: a special access to the Chinese market,

359
00:21:42,810 --> 00:21:45,438
Speaker 2: it would be very bad for the Italian economy. The

360
00:21:45,449 --> 00:21:48,030
Speaker 2: Italian economy has stopped growing as we all know,

361
00:21:48,719 --> 00:21:52,050
Speaker 2: it needs a new impetus for growth and the new

362
00:21:52,060 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 2: impetus for growth is not gonna come from the US economy.

363
00:21:55,650 --> 00:21:58,389
Speaker 2: It's gonna come from the Chinese economy because the new

364
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,889
Speaker 2: middle class, the large middle class that is going to

365
00:22:01,900 --> 00:22:04,209
Speaker 2: buy Italian luxury products,

366
00:22:04,859 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 2: it's not gonna come from the United States, it's gonna

367
00:22:08,050 --> 00:22:08,869
Speaker 2: come from China.

368
00:22:09,739 --> 00:22:13,209
Speaker 2: So the Italians are in a sense sacrificing their own

369
00:22:13,219 --> 00:22:14,069
Speaker 2: future

370
00:22:14,939 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 2: by withdrawing from the BR I because of American pressure.

371
00:22:19,109 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 2: But this is an example of Europe how Europe has

372
00:22:22,689 --> 00:22:26,890
Speaker 2: become geopolitically compliant to American wishes.

373
00:22:28,410 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 1: But sure you say China is unhappy with the developments

374
00:22:31,770 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 1: in Ukraine. But at the same time, China seems to

375
00:22:33,650 --> 00:22:37,459
Speaker 1: be taking quite a bit of advantage, getting discounted energy

376
00:22:37,469 --> 00:22:41,050
Speaker 1: supply from Russia. Uh I just read about how some

377
00:22:41,060 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: of the bank lending from the West that was suspended

378
00:22:43,530 --> 00:22:46,060
Speaker 1: after the war began is now being sort of complemented

379
00:22:46,069 --> 00:22:49,609
Speaker 1: or supplemented by Russians uh by the Chinese R and

380
00:22:49,619 --> 00:22:53,239
Speaker 1: B loans. So whether it is the internationalization of the

381
00:22:53,250 --> 00:22:55,420
Speaker 1: currency strategy or

382
00:22:55,770 --> 00:22:59,500
Speaker 1: having greater sort of secure sources of energy. From that perspective,

383
00:22:59,510 --> 00:23:00,770
Speaker 1: this war is working to China's

384
00:23:00,780 --> 00:23:01,180
Speaker 2: favor.

385
00:23:02,150 --> 00:23:06,790
Speaker 2: Uh actually China is not the only country benefiting from

386
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 2: cheap Russian energy supplies. I think India's imports from Russia

387
00:23:12,689 --> 00:23:14,780
Speaker 2: of energy used to be 1%

388
00:23:15,530 --> 00:23:20,180
Speaker 2: and 1% has become 20%. But what's even more interesting

389
00:23:20,189 --> 00:23:24,060
Speaker 2: is that Russian between India is buy cheap Russian energy,

390
00:23:24,699 --> 00:23:28,430
Speaker 2: refining it and then selling it to Europe. So Europe

391
00:23:28,439 --> 00:23:32,829
Speaker 2: is actually not complying with its own sanctions against Russia.

392
00:23:32,949 --> 00:23:34,469
Speaker 2: And I, I don't know whether I don't know how

393
00:23:34,479 --> 00:23:36,069
Speaker 2: many Singaporeans know this.

394
00:23:37,109 --> 00:23:41,260
Speaker 2: The Europeans give all kinds of exemptions to themselves when

395
00:23:41,270 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 2: it comes to purchasing Russian energy.

396
00:23:44,189 --> 00:23:46,739
Speaker 2: And if I'm not mistaken, please go and double check

397
00:23:46,750 --> 00:23:47,160
Speaker 2: this

398
00:23:47,890 --> 00:23:51,020
Speaker 2: despite the major war in Ukraine.

399
00:23:51,670 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken, Russian gas is still flowing through

400
00:23:55,369 --> 00:24:00,849
Speaker 2: Ukrainian pipelines into Europe. Yeah, that's correct. So it's amazing,

401
00:24:01,630 --> 00:24:04,300
Speaker 2: they're asking the rest of the world to beat up

402
00:24:04,310 --> 00:24:06,489
Speaker 2: on Russia and sanction Russia

403
00:24:07,180 --> 00:24:11,530
Speaker 2: while they quietly pocket exemptions for themselves. Now, this is

404
00:24:11,540 --> 00:24:13,909
Speaker 2: double standards and hypocrisy

405
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:16,449
Speaker 2: of the highest order

406
00:24:17,170 --> 00:24:20,139
Speaker 2: and this is an example of how the standing of

407
00:24:20,150 --> 00:24:23,939
Speaker 2: the European Union is going down in the world.

408
00:24:24,599 --> 00:24:27,380
Speaker 2: And I can tell you, for example, Jay Shankar, the

409
00:24:27,390 --> 00:24:32,449
Speaker 2: Foreign Minister of India made an absolutely remarkable statement when

410
00:24:32,459 --> 00:24:38,949
Speaker 2: he said Europe thinks that Europe's problems are the world's problems,

411
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 2: but he doesn't want to believe that the world's problems

412
00:24:42,569 --> 00:24:47,060
Speaker 2: are Europe's problems. And he basically, he's implying that Europe

413
00:24:47,069 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 2: is being very selfish and, and Europe is not even

414
00:24:50,689 --> 00:24:54,229
Speaker 2: taking into consideration the fact that the Ukraine war is

415
00:24:54,239 --> 00:24:58,270
Speaker 2: not just hurting Europeans, it's hurting a lot of Africans

416
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,630
Speaker 2: and cutting, cutting of access to food supplies and so

417
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 2: on and so forth. And as far as the European

418
00:25:04,209 --> 00:25:06,929
Speaker 2: is concerned. That's the African problem. Now, that's, that's again

419
00:25:06,939 --> 00:25:08,050
Speaker 2: in his own way

420
00:25:08,500 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 2: also. Something very cruel.

421
00:25:10,810 --> 00:25:14,500
Speaker 2: It's something that the Europeans should also take into consideration.

422
00:25:15,020 --> 00:25:19,660
Speaker 2: That is this war hurting, not just the Ukrainians and

423
00:25:19,670 --> 00:25:23,379
Speaker 2: the Russians, it's hurting the Europeans and hurting the Africans

424
00:25:23,390 --> 00:25:24,938
Speaker 2: and to some extent Asians too.

425
00:25:25,709 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: But of course, in other areas, as you know, uh

426
00:25:27,810 --> 00:25:32,319
Speaker 2: the cheap Russian energy in some ways is benefiting a

427
00:25:32,329 --> 00:25:35,438
Speaker 2: lot of Asian countries too, including India and China.

428
00:25:36,170 --> 00:25:37,140
Speaker 2: Right? So

429
00:25:37,150 --> 00:25:41,050
Speaker 1: this conflict in Ukraine on one hand has underscored the

430
00:25:41,140 --> 00:25:44,339
Speaker 1: huge dependence we still have on fossil fuel based energy.

431
00:25:44,589 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 1: And in turn reinforced Europe's desire to seek energy independence

432
00:25:50,010 --> 00:25:55,060
Speaker 1: by uh generating significant amount of renewable energy, renewable energy capacity.

433
00:25:55,069 --> 00:25:57,670
Speaker 1: And under Biden with the Inflation Reduction Act, a lot

434
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,319
Speaker 1: of support is going in that direction as well. Um

435
00:26:00,329 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 1: So when John Kerry was made the climate czar, one

436
00:26:04,209 --> 00:26:07,810
Speaker 1: view was that at least on climate change Europe us,

437
00:26:07,819 --> 00:26:10,968
Speaker 1: China would sit on the same table and make some

438
00:26:10,979 --> 00:26:14,180
Speaker 1: tangible progress. Have you seen any hope there?

439
00:26:15,439 --> 00:26:19,630
Speaker 2: Well, sadly, I mean, this is where I would say

440
00:26:19,930 --> 00:26:21,890
Speaker 2: my biggest disappointment

441
00:26:22,609 --> 00:26:26,859
Speaker 2: with the Biden administration is that the Biden administration genuinely

442
00:26:27,619 --> 00:26:29,979
Speaker 2: is committed to fighting climate change.

443
00:26:30,819 --> 00:26:34,010
Speaker 2: Now, if you're committed to fighting climate change, you know,

444
00:26:34,020 --> 00:26:38,849
Speaker 2: in life is all about tradeoffs, what's your most important priority?

445
00:26:39,170 --> 00:26:42,869
Speaker 2: And frankly, we all know that the most important priority

446
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,030
Speaker 2: is that we don't have planet B to go to

447
00:26:45,329 --> 00:26:49,369
Speaker 2: if we destroy planet Earth. So clearly, since the clock

448
00:26:49,380 --> 00:26:53,709
Speaker 2: is ticking, and uh the only way to reduce greenhouse

449
00:26:53,719 --> 00:26:58,569
Speaker 2: gas emissions is to cooperate with all the major economic powers.

450
00:26:58,969 --> 00:27:01,989
Speaker 2: Logically, what the United States should be doing. If it

451
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:06,989
Speaker 2: is run by an intelligent, rational uh administration that is

452
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 2: thinking long term,

453
00:27:08,660 --> 00:27:11,219
Speaker 2: the United States should say, hey, let's press the pause

454
00:27:11,229 --> 00:27:15,469
Speaker 2: button on the US China geopolitical contest. Let's focus on

455
00:27:15,479 --> 00:27:18,380
Speaker 2: fighting climate change. What's the point of winning a geopolitical

456
00:27:18,390 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 2: contest against China? If you don't have a planet to

457
00:27:21,130 --> 00:27:24,869
Speaker 2: enjoy it on, right. What's the point? I mean, you're

458
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,290
Speaker 2: number one but number one of a planet that's gone.

459
00:27:27,300 --> 00:27:33,069
Speaker 2: That's absurd, right? So clearly the logical rational decision for

460
00:27:33,079 --> 00:27:36,739
Speaker 2: the Biden administration to take is to say, ok, climate

461
00:27:36,750 --> 00:27:38,530
Speaker 2: change is my number one priority.

462
00:27:38,829 --> 00:27:43,319
Speaker 2: Fighting China is not my most important uh priority. It

463
00:27:43,329 --> 00:27:44,319
Speaker 2: should be number two,

464
00:27:45,020 --> 00:27:49,709
Speaker 2: right? So, but that that kind of decision cannot be

465
00:27:49,719 --> 00:27:54,319
Speaker 2: made by any administration in the United States because the

466
00:27:54,329 --> 00:27:59,900
Speaker 2: anti China consensus is ferocious and you know, in today's

467
00:27:59,910 --> 00:28:03,849
Speaker 2: uh United States, if you say anything that is even

468
00:28:03,859 --> 00:28:10,050
Speaker 2: slightly reasonable or rational on China, you get attacked ferociously

469
00:28:10,699 --> 00:28:15,130
Speaker 2: and therefore nobody, not even the fiercest advocates of climate

470
00:28:15,140 --> 00:28:19,959
Speaker 2: change like John Kerry, for example, can say, hey guys,

471
00:28:20,030 --> 00:28:24,250
Speaker 2: let's focus on fighting climate change. Let's not, let's let's

472
00:28:24,260 --> 00:28:28,739
Speaker 2: delay the uh our actions against China. Again, this is

473
00:28:28,750 --> 00:28:31,369
Speaker 2: something that's quite, this is why we, I think we

474
00:28:31,380 --> 00:28:35,050
Speaker 2: Asians need to speak out a lot more than we

475
00:28:35,060 --> 00:28:38,250
Speaker 2: have because I think the silence of the Asians,

476
00:28:38,589 --> 00:28:42,119
Speaker 2: I find quite uh sad, but just by the way,

477
00:28:42,130 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 2: just to balance that since we did our last podcast,

478
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:50,719
Speaker 2: uh I issued my, my book, The new uh Asian,

479
00:28:50,729 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 2: the Asian 21st century

480
00:28:52,810 --> 00:28:57,130
Speaker 2: uh in January 2022 as an open access free book

481
00:28:57,650 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 2: and my publisher expected, he told me 20,000 downloads. Instead,

482
00:29:02,770 --> 00:29:08,060
Speaker 2: there have been over 3.2 million downloads in 160 countries

483
00:29:08,589 --> 00:29:12,140
Speaker 2: uh since January 2022. Now I only mentioned that for

484
00:29:12,150 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 2: one reason,

485
00:29:13,770 --> 00:29:15,339
Speaker 2: psychologically,

486
00:29:16,130 --> 00:29:17,380
Speaker 2: the rest of the world

487
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,849
Speaker 2: is preparing for the Asian century

488
00:29:22,260 --> 00:29:23,709
Speaker 2: or the Americans

489
00:29:24,650 --> 00:29:27,219
Speaker 2: are still trying to preserve the American century

490
00:29:28,219 --> 00:29:31,290
Speaker 2: and that's going to create a fundamental disconnect

491
00:29:32,150 --> 00:29:35,709
Speaker 2: between America and the world. This is the Americans don't

492
00:29:35,719 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 2: pay attention to long term trends. And I actually, again,

493
00:29:38,650 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 2: as a friend of the United States, I'm saying, hey,

494
00:29:41,609 --> 00:29:44,819
Speaker 2: this is a different world that's emerging instead of trying

495
00:29:44,829 --> 00:29:47,180
Speaker 2: to protect American primacy,

496
00:29:47,900 --> 00:29:51,969
Speaker 2: focus on improving the living conditions of the American people

497
00:29:52,819 --> 00:29:55,839
Speaker 2: in the long run. The choice for any US government,

498
00:29:56,319 --> 00:29:59,670
Speaker 2: the fundamental strategic choice is, do you advance the interests

499
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,839
Speaker 2: of American primacy or do you advance the interest of

500
00:30:02,849 --> 00:30:05,719
Speaker 2: the American people who by the way, will suffer in

501
00:30:05,729 --> 00:30:06,839
Speaker 2: this climate change?

502
00:30:07,650 --> 00:30:09,810
Speaker 2: So if you want, if you're interested in protecting the

503
00:30:09,819 --> 00:30:14,380
Speaker 2: American people. Fight climate change. First, don't fight cli China,

504
00:30:14,500 --> 00:30:17,619
Speaker 2: but only if primacy is your number one objective, then

505
00:30:17,630 --> 00:30:18,579
Speaker 2: you fight China.

506
00:30:19,290 --> 00:30:22,569
Speaker 2: These, these are the strategic decisions that and, and, and

507
00:30:22,579 --> 00:30:26,619
Speaker 2: I feel very sad that American law, uh strategic thinkers

508
00:30:26,660 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 2: are not bringing out these big fundamental dilemmas that America

509
00:30:31,170 --> 00:30:35,060
Speaker 2: needs to address. Instead everything is focused on short term,

510
00:30:35,390 --> 00:30:39,180
Speaker 2: on the next election on beating up China with no

511
00:30:39,189 --> 00:30:41,719
Speaker 2: discussion of the long term issues.

512
00:30:42,719 --> 00:30:44,420
Speaker 1: So because you're sitting here in Singapore, we don't even

513
00:30:44,430 --> 00:30:47,689
Speaker 1: need to go to Washington because Washington DC sends all

514
00:30:47,699 --> 00:30:50,109
Speaker 1: sorts of government officials and thinkers to Singapore on a

515
00:30:50,119 --> 00:30:52,989
Speaker 1: regular basis. You meet them. I have had the privilege

516
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,010
Speaker 1: of meeting a few of them in recent years and

517
00:30:55,020 --> 00:30:57,939
Speaker 1: the phrases that we hear are very predictable. A rules

518
00:30:57,949 --> 00:31:01,829
Speaker 1: based order guardrails around the relationship between the US and

519
00:31:01,839 --> 00:31:06,050
Speaker 1: China uh de risks and that sort of, you know, terminology.

520
00:31:06,109 --> 00:31:09,089
Speaker 1: So it seems like, you know, there is this whole

521
00:31:09,099 --> 00:31:10,390
Speaker 1: attempt to create

522
00:31:10,910 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 1: basically a club of the willing uh

523
00:31:14,390 --> 00:31:16,969
Speaker 1: of course, with the exclusion of China. So we saw

524
00:31:16,979 --> 00:31:20,449
Speaker 1: a summit between the US, Korea and Japan. Recently, we

525
00:31:20,459 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 1: have been looking at the whole quad related developments uh

526
00:31:22,810 --> 00:31:27,660
Speaker 1: for years. So all of these forums exclude, sort of

527
00:31:27,670 --> 00:31:31,238
Speaker 1: conspicuously exclude China. So do you think these sort of,

528
00:31:31,250 --> 00:31:34,260
Speaker 1: you know, efforts is quote unquote derisk actually achieve the

529
00:31:34,270 --> 00:31:37,270
Speaker 1: de risking objective or it's actually exacerbating the

530
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,180
Speaker 2: situation.

531
00:31:39,060 --> 00:31:43,310
Speaker 2: Well, it's, it's, it's interesting you there's no doubt that

532
00:31:43,319 --> 00:31:47,270
Speaker 2: the US uh government, I say this US government because

533
00:31:47,290 --> 00:31:51,500
Speaker 2: it was either Trump administration or Biden administration still wants

534
00:31:51,510 --> 00:31:53,430
Speaker 2: to try and isolate China.

535
00:31:54,270 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 2: But again, this is where there's no long term strategic thinking.

536
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:02,819
Speaker 2: Only 12% of the population of the world lives in

537
00:32:02,989 --> 00:32:06,969
Speaker 2: the West, 88% lives outside the West.

538
00:32:07,609 --> 00:32:10,180
Speaker 2: And the majority of them, by the way, want to

539
00:32:10,189 --> 00:32:14,859
Speaker 2: continue trading with China and want to continue dealing with China.

540
00:32:15,510 --> 00:32:18,739
Speaker 2: And and so you know, take Brazil, for example, 20

541
00:32:18,750 --> 00:32:21,869
Speaker 2: years ago, it took Brazil one year to export $1

542
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 2: billion to China.

543
00:32:24,829 --> 00:32:30,619
Speaker 2: Uh now it takes Brazil uh 60 hours $6.1 billion

544
00:32:30,630 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 2: to join it.

545
00:32:32,260 --> 00:32:35,910
Speaker 2: Look at that. Are you asking Brazil to isolate China?

546
00:32:36,599 --> 00:32:38,910
Speaker 2: So I mean, it, it is that they, they, they

547
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:43,069
Speaker 2: had the Americans don't realize that in the Cold War,

548
00:32:43,079 --> 00:32:48,260
Speaker 2: they successfully contained the Soviet Union, but today they cannot

549
00:32:48,270 --> 00:32:52,530
Speaker 2: contain uh China, it's a mission impossible

550
00:32:53,469 --> 00:32:55,479
Speaker 2: and you know, you would take and you, you, you

551
00:32:55,489 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 2: talk about and so on so forth. Look at ASEAN,

552
00:32:57,890 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 2: right

553
00:32:59,130 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 2: in the year 2000 US trade with ASEAN was 100

554
00:33:03,569 --> 00:33:07,239
Speaker 2: and $35 billion and China's trade with ASEAN was only

555
00:33:07,250 --> 00:33:10,699
Speaker 2: $40 billion. So US trade with ASEAN was more than

556
00:33:10,709 --> 00:33:14,119
Speaker 2: three times China's trade with ASEAN the year 2000 by

557
00:33:14,130 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 2: 2022 US trade with ASEAN had grown significantly from 135

558
00:33:17,890 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 2: billion to 440 billion. But China's trade with ASEAN had

559
00:33:22,010 --> 00:33:28,810
Speaker 2: grown from 40 billion to $975 billion.

560
00:33:29,180 --> 00:33:34,390
Speaker 2: It's the world's largest trading relationship. It's bigger than the

561
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:39,709
Speaker 2: US European Union trading relationship, right? It's an amazing

562
00:33:40,959 --> 00:33:44,849
Speaker 2: and, and so this idea that you can contain China

563
00:33:45,619 --> 00:33:51,689
Speaker 2: is a mission impossible. Again, it reflects a lack of strategy. So,

564
00:33:51,699 --> 00:33:55,189
Speaker 2: you know, I think it's important for us. Therefore, to

565
00:33:55,199 --> 00:33:59,989
Speaker 2: tell Americans who visit us, please understand that the world

566
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:04,550
Speaker 2: has changed. And, and even if you go to Japan

567
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,290
Speaker 2: and and South Korea, right?

568
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 2: Uh Again, let me ask you a simple question. Do

569
00:34:10,729 --> 00:34:13,250
Speaker 2: Japan and South Korea trade more with the United States

570
00:34:13,260 --> 00:34:14,469
Speaker 2: or trade more with China?

571
00:34:15,310 --> 00:34:19,969
Speaker 2: Now China, again, you see, so you're asking Japan and

572
00:34:19,979 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 2: South Korea? No, of course, Japan and South Korea will

573
00:34:23,610 --> 00:34:27,850
Speaker 2: go along with symbolic moves and so on and so forth, right?

574
00:34:28,250 --> 00:34:32,100
Speaker 2: But if a far better approach for the United States

575
00:34:32,110 --> 00:34:36,639
Speaker 2: to take is to acknowledge that they cannot stop China.

576
00:34:36,810 --> 00:34:40,919
Speaker 2: And the best way is to try and still integrate China.

577
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,530
Speaker 2: And I'm glad you used the word rules based order

578
00:34:44,540 --> 00:34:48,070
Speaker 2: at the beginning of your question because I think what

579
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:51,590
Speaker 2: Americans should do is go back and read the speech

580
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:55,909
Speaker 2: that Bill Clinton gave in Yale in 2003, which I

581
00:34:55,919 --> 00:34:59,199
Speaker 2: also quote and has China won? He said, if America

582
00:34:59,209 --> 00:35:01,570
Speaker 2: is going to be number one for ever.

583
00:35:02,629 --> 00:35:03,320
Speaker 2: Then fine,

584
00:35:04,129 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 2: America can keep on doing whatever he wants to do.

585
00:35:06,250 --> 00:35:09,489
Speaker 2: He's number one forever. But Bill Clinton added a but

586
00:35:09,500 --> 00:35:12,149
Speaker 2: he said, but if you can conceivable world

587
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,270
Speaker 2: where America is no longer, number one, then it's an

588
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:23,030
Speaker 2: American interest to strengthen multilateral rules, multilateral norms, multilateral processes,

589
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:29,330
Speaker 2: multilateral institutions. So if the Americans really believe in a

590
00:35:29,340 --> 00:35:30,850
Speaker 2: rules based order,

591
00:35:31,629 --> 00:35:34,479
Speaker 2: this is what they should be doing, strengthening, strengthening multi

592
00:35:34,699 --> 00:35:37,479
Speaker 2: rules and processes. Now again, let me ask you

593
00:35:38,149 --> 00:35:45,779
Speaker 2: which country follows multilateral rules more carefully? Is it the

594
00:35:45,790 --> 00:35:49,439
Speaker 2: United States or is it China?

595
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,110
Speaker 2: And as a former ambassador to the UN for over

596
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:55,250
Speaker 2: 10 years,

597
00:35:56,070 --> 00:36:00,449
Speaker 2: I can tell you it is China that obeys multilateral rules.

598
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:04,659
Speaker 2: It is the United States of America that is strangling

599
00:36:04,669 --> 00:36:10,310
Speaker 2: the World Trade Organization by blocking appointments to the apparent court.

600
00:36:10,500 --> 00:36:15,379
Speaker 2: China is not blocking appointments. It is the United States

601
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:19,489
Speaker 2: that refuses to ratify the Un convention on the law

602
00:36:19,500 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 2: of the Sea. China has ratified the UN convention on

603
00:36:24,610 --> 00:36:25,540
Speaker 2: the law of the Sea.

604
00:36:26,389 --> 00:36:30,899
Speaker 2: It is the United States has withdrawn from the International

605
00:36:30,909 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 2: Court of Justice

606
00:36:33,100 --> 00:36:36,469
Speaker 2: and refuses to go back to the I CJ. So

607
00:36:36,479 --> 00:36:38,189
Speaker 2: I mean, I can go on with a long list

608
00:36:38,489 --> 00:36:44,189
Speaker 2: and actually I think it is against American national interest

609
00:36:44,449 --> 00:36:48,110
Speaker 2: to do this. So as a friend of the United States,

610
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:51,030
Speaker 2: I say the United States should be the number one

611
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 2: power embracing multilateral rules and norms because at the end

612
00:36:56,129 --> 00:36:59,659
Speaker 2: of the day, the United States as a society believes

613
00:36:59,669 --> 00:37:00,790
Speaker 2: in the rule of law,

614
00:37:01,290 --> 00:37:03,509
Speaker 2: so it should believe in the rule of law at

615
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:07,260
Speaker 2: home and it should believe in the rule of law overseas.

616
00:37:08,810 --> 00:37:12,820
Speaker 1: Indeed. Ok. So ASEAN strategy is there one

617
00:37:14,290 --> 00:37:16,219
Speaker 2: by the United States on ASEAN?

618
00:37:16,449 --> 00:37:19,419
Speaker 1: No ASEAN with respect to, you know, dealing with these

619
00:37:19,429 --> 00:37:21,879
Speaker 1: two big brothers, you know, squabbling and where do they

620
00:37:21,889 --> 00:37:22,399
Speaker 1: end up?

621
00:37:22,620 --> 00:37:29,189
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think ASEAN is the most underrated regional organization

622
00:37:29,199 --> 00:37:33,459
Speaker 2: in the whole world. It is the most underrated regional

623
00:37:33,469 --> 00:37:38,928
Speaker 2: organization in the whole world because it is actually in

624
00:37:38,939 --> 00:37:43,060
Speaker 2: terms of deeds, the most successful regional organization in the

625
00:37:43,070 --> 00:37:43,800
Speaker 2: whole world,

626
00:37:44,459 --> 00:37:45,810
Speaker 2: you know, look at suck,

627
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,500
Speaker 2: it can't even mean India and Pakistan cannot trade with

628
00:37:49,510 --> 00:37:53,339
Speaker 2: each other. Look at the Gulf Cooperation Council, Saudi Arabia

629
00:37:53,350 --> 00:37:56,129
Speaker 2: and UEE had sanctions on Qatar until recently.

630
00:37:56,750 --> 00:38:00,469
Speaker 2: Uh and look at European Union, it broke up before

631
00:38:00,649 --> 00:38:01,919
Speaker 2: ASEAN did with Brexit

632
00:38:02,699 --> 00:38:06,669
Speaker 2: and, and uh you know, uh the European Union today

633
00:38:06,679 --> 00:38:10,350
Speaker 2: has the biggest war on its doorstep in Ukraine. So

634
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:16,299
Speaker 2: if you compare ASEAN against any other regional organization, it

635
00:38:16,310 --> 00:38:20,919
Speaker 2: has done a better job at promoting peace and prosperity

636
00:38:21,189 --> 00:38:24,110
Speaker 2: in its region. And you know, let me ask you

637
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,070
Speaker 2: within the years, 2010 and 2020

638
00:38:27,629 --> 00:38:31,879
Speaker 2: did the $17 trillion European Union contribute more to global

639
00:38:31,889 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 2: economic growth or did the three trillion ASEAN economy contribute

640
00:38:36,010 --> 00:38:40,020
Speaker 2: more to global economic growth. The answer is ASEAN. So,

641
00:38:40,030 --> 00:38:44,199
Speaker 2: you know, ASEAN has done remarkable things. Now, what makes

642
00:38:44,209 --> 00:38:48,689
Speaker 2: it difficult to understand ASEAN is that ASEAN is inherently

643
00:38:48,919 --> 00:38:53,580
Speaker 2: a weak organization and it, it never has a clear

644
00:38:53,590 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 2: long term strategy. It always stumbles through,

645
00:38:57,060 --> 00:38:59,790
Speaker 2: but guess what? It keeps stumbling through and moving forward

646
00:39:00,629 --> 00:39:02,589
Speaker 2: in his own way, right.

647
00:39:03,260 --> 00:39:07,929
Speaker 2: And it's actually quite amazing uh that, you know, uh

648
00:39:07,939 --> 00:39:11,679
Speaker 2: how much ASEAN has progressed, uh especially over the last

649
00:39:11,689 --> 00:39:15,729
Speaker 2: 10 years again, in uh I think in the year

650
00:39:15,739 --> 00:39:21,110
Speaker 2: 2000 Japan's economy was eight times the size of Asean's economy.

651
00:39:21,879 --> 00:39:24,050
Speaker 2: Now, it's only 1.5 times bigger.

652
00:39:26,629 --> 00:39:29,219
Speaker 2: So look at that, look at how much ASEAN has progressed.

653
00:39:29,669 --> 00:39:33,020
Speaker 2: So I think ASEAN has developed its own what I

654
00:39:33,030 --> 00:39:34,649
Speaker 2: call inner genius.

655
00:39:35,310 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 2: And right now, for example, he's trying his best to

656
00:39:39,729 --> 00:39:42,449
Speaker 2: maintain good relations with the United States and maintain good

657
00:39:42,459 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 2: relations with China, which is the right thing to do.

658
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:49,580
Speaker 2: And again, it doesn't quite be without too much fanfare,

659
00:39:49,729 --> 00:39:52,649
Speaker 2: but make sure that both sides understand clearly where they stand.

660
00:39:54,540 --> 00:39:57,370
Speaker 1: But is it possible to keep doing that? I mean,

661
00:39:57,379 --> 00:40:00,689
Speaker 1: would we arrive at a point to, you know, paint

662
00:40:00,699 --> 00:40:02,989
Speaker 1: one of your, you know, scary scenarios, you know, Trump

663
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,370
Speaker 1: becomes a president and again, you're with us or you're

664
00:40:05,379 --> 00:40:08,899
Speaker 1: against us. Type ultimatums are being given to nations around

665
00:40:08,909 --> 00:40:12,929
Speaker 1: the world. How would countries in this region deal with that?

666
00:40:14,179 --> 00:40:17,270
Speaker 2: Well, I think this is precisely why the 10 ASEAN

667
00:40:17,429 --> 00:40:19,899
Speaker 2: countries need to stick together.

668
00:40:20,850 --> 00:40:24,659
Speaker 2: Because if they fall apart, if ASEAN breaks apart, then

669
00:40:24,669 --> 00:40:25,658
Speaker 2: you'll be eaten up

670
00:40:26,340 --> 00:40:27,149
Speaker 2: individually

671
00:40:27,919 --> 00:40:31,549
Speaker 2: by these two great powers. So it's very important for

672
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:35,290
Speaker 2: the ASEAN countries to stay together. And so far I

673
00:40:35,300 --> 00:40:39,189
Speaker 2: can tell you that the ASEAN countries understand this very

674
00:40:39,199 --> 00:40:42,300
Speaker 2: well and they know that if they don't, if they

675
00:40:42,310 --> 00:40:46,030
Speaker 2: fall apart, then there will be easy pickings uh for

676
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:50,429
Speaker 2: this great power. But fortunately ASEAN has got enough heft

677
00:40:50,639 --> 00:40:52,770
Speaker 2: uh as an organization

678
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:57,870
Speaker 2: and ASEAN, you know, it's 700 billion people still are

679
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:01,100
Speaker 2: very significant. And ASEAN is still the one of the

680
00:41:01,110 --> 00:41:03,989
Speaker 2: fastest growing regions in the whole world. So they, they're

681
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,270
Speaker 2: good reasons for both United States and China to treat

682
00:41:07,489 --> 00:41:08,429
Speaker 2: ASEAN with respect.

683
00:41:09,209 --> 00:41:11,219
Speaker 2: What about the ASEAN?

684
00:41:12,020 --> 00:41:16,159
Speaker 1: But uh what about the Democratic credentials of ASEAN? I mean,

685
00:41:16,169 --> 00:41:18,219
Speaker 1: it seems like, you know, we've had a few slippages

686
00:41:18,229 --> 00:41:20,370
Speaker 1: in a few of the countries in the region in

687
00:41:20,379 --> 00:41:21,100
Speaker 1: recent years.

688
00:41:22,330 --> 00:41:25,009
Speaker 2: Well, at least we don't elect Donald Trump as president.

689
00:41:26,729 --> 00:41:29,020
Speaker 2: I would say that any country

690
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,770
Speaker 2: that is going to reelect Donald Trump

691
00:41:34,810 --> 00:41:37,229
Speaker 2: after he almost mounted a coup d'etat,

692
00:41:39,350 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 2: that's a sign that something is wrong with the democracy

693
00:41:44,090 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 2: of that country.

694
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:50,649
Speaker 2: And that's why it's very unwise for the United States

695
00:41:50,659 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 2: to go around preaching to other countries on how to

696
00:41:54,530 --> 00:42:00,580
Speaker 2: improve their political systems because the each ASEAN country at

697
00:42:00,590 --> 00:42:02,889
Speaker 2: the end of the day what matters for the ASEAN

698
00:42:02,899 --> 00:42:07,939
Speaker 2: countries is not the nature of the political system but

699
00:42:07,949 --> 00:42:10,010
Speaker 2: whether or not they're getting good governance,

700
00:42:10,739 --> 00:42:14,510
Speaker 2: whether or not the population is improving their lives. And,

701
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:18,709
Speaker 2: and paradoxically, the Americans say we are for democracy

702
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:23,830
Speaker 2: but their number one ally in Southeast Asia is Vietnam.

703
00:42:24,729 --> 00:42:29,379
Speaker 2: Now, what is the difference between the political system of

704
00:42:29,389 --> 00:42:30,030
Speaker 2: Vietnam

705
00:42:30,929 --> 00:42:32,979
Speaker 2: and the political system of China?

706
00:42:35,899 --> 00:42:37,060
Speaker 2: I cannot think of any.

707
00:42:38,189 --> 00:42:41,939
Speaker 2: So in, in vis a vis China United States says

708
00:42:41,949 --> 00:42:45,589
Speaker 2: we are for democracy. Vis A vis Vietnam. United States

709
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:47,699
Speaker 2: never says it is for democracy.

710
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:51,419
Speaker 2: So, you know, this is where the United States has

711
00:42:51,429 --> 00:42:55,189
Speaker 2: got to realize that the world has become a much

712
00:42:55,199 --> 00:43:00,330
Speaker 2: more intelligent and sophisticated place. So the kind of simple

713
00:43:00,340 --> 00:43:05,509
Speaker 2: black and white uh distinctions that are made by American policymakers,

714
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:10,610
Speaker 2: you know, democracy versus autocracy, it just doesn't work anymore.

715
00:43:10,919 --> 00:43:14,149
Speaker 2: We're moving the 21st century,

716
00:43:14,909 --> 00:43:18,639
Speaker 2: it's gonna be very different from any cent, any other century.

717
00:43:19,159 --> 00:43:25,360
Speaker 2: It's a multi civilizational, multipolar world uh where you need

718
00:43:25,370 --> 00:43:29,800
Speaker 2: to understand all the shades of gray, all the nuances.

719
00:43:30,010 --> 00:43:32,800
Speaker 2: And if you keep coming to this world with black

720
00:43:32,810 --> 00:43:36,649
Speaker 2: and white perspectives, you'll be at a severe disadvantage. I

721
00:43:36,659 --> 00:43:38,919
Speaker 2: think that's why this, I think that's also why

722
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:43,550
Speaker 2: now the Asian 21st century uh has done so well

723
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:47,069
Speaker 2: because what it provides is a much more nuanced view

724
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,889
Speaker 2: of the world than anything that is provided in the

725
00:43:49,899 --> 00:43:55,100
Speaker 2: American media or Western media. So there is hunger for

726
00:43:55,110 --> 00:43:59,270
Speaker 2: uh someone to say, hey, the old Western perspectives are

727
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,030
Speaker 2: not going to help us understand this world.

728
00:44:02,139 --> 00:44:06,229
Speaker 1: Speaking of uh multipolarity, uh recently, we had the BRICS

729
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:09,709
Speaker 1: summit and there was a proposal to expand the BRICS membership.

730
00:44:09,850 --> 00:44:11,229
Speaker 1: What do you make of all this?

731
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,989
Speaker 2: Well, you know, if you had asked me 30 years

732
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:19,739
Speaker 2: ago or 20 years ago, whenever Bricks was created, which

733
00:44:19,750 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 2: club would people want to join the G7 or Bricks?

734
00:44:23,750 --> 00:44:26,509
Speaker 2: And everyone's course, you know, you want to join the G7.

735
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 2: It's a club of successful countries. Bricks are all, you know,

736
00:44:30,050 --> 00:44:33,790
Speaker 2: poor developing countries and so on and so forth. But

737
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 2: guess what? We live in an amazing world where the

738
00:44:38,330 --> 00:44:41,229
Speaker 2: G7 is a sunset organization.

739
00:44:42,469 --> 00:44:46,169
Speaker 2: Really, it's, its influence is going to diminish over the

740
00:44:46,179 --> 00:44:51,339
Speaker 2: next 2030 years and Bricks has become a Sunrise organization

741
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:55,870
Speaker 2: and I find shocking that 40 countries

742
00:44:56,770 --> 00:45:00,139
Speaker 2: uh applying to join Bricks, they must be doing something right?

743
00:45:00,149 --> 00:45:03,469
Speaker 2: I mean, clearly they, they are, they are, they, they're

744
00:45:03,479 --> 00:45:06,429
Speaker 2: doing something right that uh uh countries from all over

745
00:45:06,439 --> 00:45:11,370
Speaker 2: the world, from Latin America, from Africa, from Asia want

746
00:45:11,379 --> 00:45:15,909
Speaker 2: to join Bricks. And actually, I'm amazed that Brics has

747
00:45:15,919 --> 00:45:21,760
Speaker 2: simultaneously admitted Iran and Saudi Arabia. Now, these countries are

748
00:45:21,770 --> 00:45:24,399
Speaker 2: very deeply suspicious of each other

749
00:45:25,100 --> 00:45:29,149
Speaker 2: and it, it, it breaks that fall becomes in many ways,

750
00:45:29,830 --> 00:45:33,729
Speaker 2: uh a better mirror of our world world order because

751
00:45:33,739 --> 00:45:35,620
Speaker 2: in our new world order, there will be all kinds

752
00:45:35,629 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 2: of contradictions. And Iran, Saudi Arabia being a contradiction, but

753
00:45:40,330 --> 00:45:45,830
Speaker 2: an organization that can handle contradictions uh is an organization

754
00:45:46,050 --> 00:45:51,500
Speaker 2: that is more suited for a multipolar, multi civilizational 21st century.

755
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:55,889
Speaker 1: OK. So you said that the G7 is a sunset organization.

756
00:45:55,899 --> 00:45:58,260
Speaker 1: But what about the G 20? I mean, it's taking

757
00:45:58,270 --> 00:46:01,310
Speaker 1: place in India as we speak. There's some concerns that

758
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,590
Speaker 1: China may not be joining it. But isn't that a

759
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:08,370
Speaker 1: great and expanded club of large emerging market economies? Sitting

760
00:46:08,379 --> 00:46:10,449
Speaker 1: on the same table with the big boys?

761
00:46:11,340 --> 00:46:15,529
Speaker 2: Well, I think the G 20 is also a sunrise organization.

762
00:46:15,540 --> 00:46:19,100
Speaker 2: I think any country invited to join the G 20

763
00:46:19,110 --> 00:46:20,870
Speaker 2: will do so immediately.

764
00:46:21,679 --> 00:46:25,110
Speaker 2: But at the same time for the G 20 to succeed,

765
00:46:25,879 --> 00:46:31,928
Speaker 2: uh it's important for their uh for, for the United

766
00:46:31,939 --> 00:46:37,050
Speaker 2: States and China to work together uh within the G 20.

767
00:46:37,770 --> 00:46:40,310
Speaker 2: Those are the two most important powers. In fact, you know,

768
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:44,530
Speaker 2: la before last year's G 20 meeting in Bali, I

769
00:46:44,540 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 2: was invited to breakfast by President Jokowi two days before

770
00:46:48,610 --> 00:46:52,350
Speaker 2: the meeting. And I told President Jokowi, I said, if

771
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:56,399
Speaker 2: you can organize a good meeting between President Joe Biden

772
00:46:56,409 --> 00:46:59,419
Speaker 2: and President Xi Jinping in Bali, the world will thank

773
00:46:59,429 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 2: you

774
00:47:00,250 --> 00:47:03,419
Speaker 2: because it will reduce tensions uh all around the world.

775
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:04,939
Speaker 2: And he said to me, don't worry,

776
00:47:05,659 --> 00:47:10,239
Speaker 2: I've given them the nicest room in Bali and guess

777
00:47:10,250 --> 00:47:13,729
Speaker 2: what it happened? We had a very good meeting in,

778
00:47:13,739 --> 00:47:17,550
Speaker 2: in Bali. And so that's what the G 20 should

779
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:22,909
Speaker 2: be doing, bringing together not countries which agree with each other.

780
00:47:23,979 --> 00:47:27,129
Speaker 2: The purpose of the G 20 is to bring together

781
00:47:27,139 --> 00:47:29,590
Speaker 2: countries which disagree with each other.

782
00:47:30,370 --> 00:47:33,580
Speaker 2: And that will be the ultimate test of the success

783
00:47:33,590 --> 00:47:35,819
Speaker 2: or failure of A G 20 meeting.

784
00:47:37,340 --> 00:47:41,199
Speaker 1: Yes. Speaking of countries that disagree with each other. India China,

785
00:47:41,209 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 1: where is this relationship

786
00:47:42,330 --> 00:47:48,610
Speaker 2: going? Uh Sadly, the India China relationship today is also

787
00:47:48,620 --> 00:47:50,590
Speaker 2: a deeply troubled relationship

788
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,899
Speaker 2: and I I do worry about it uh a lot

789
00:47:54,919 --> 00:47:59,169
Speaker 2: because as you know, Singapore and ASEAN, we are friends

790
00:47:59,179 --> 00:47:59,879
Speaker 2: of India

791
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:04,649
Speaker 2: and Singapore and ASEAN, we are also friends of China.

792
00:48:05,300 --> 00:48:07,250
Speaker 2: And if you look back at the history of Southeast

793
00:48:07,260 --> 00:48:11,260
Speaker 2: Asia over the past 2000 years, the two countries that

794
00:48:11,270 --> 00:48:15,799
Speaker 2: have had the biggest influence or two civilizations rather that

795
00:48:15,810 --> 00:48:18,270
Speaker 2: have had the biggest influence on Southeast Asia are the

796
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:23,780
Speaker 2: Indian civilization. And Chinese civilization. And paradoxically, even though uh

797
00:48:23,790 --> 00:48:29,010
Speaker 2: China is geographically closer to Southeast Asia than India is right.

798
00:48:29,639 --> 00:48:34,429
Speaker 2: Uh Despite that the influence of index civilization is far

799
00:48:34,439 --> 00:48:34,850
Speaker 2: greater

800
00:48:35,530 --> 00:48:39,529
Speaker 2: uh on Southeast Asia. And you go to Indonesia, for example,

801
00:48:39,860 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 2: to see scenes from the Ramayana and Mahabharata played out

802
00:48:43,530 --> 00:48:48,679
Speaker 2: every day in, in all, all over Indonesia. So clearly,

803
00:48:48,750 --> 00:48:52,139
Speaker 2: uh Southeast Asia and Asean

804
00:48:52,729 --> 00:48:56,020
Speaker 2: uh have a lot to lose if relations between China

805
00:48:56,030 --> 00:48:59,879
Speaker 2: and India uh become bad. So I think the ASEAN

806
00:49:00,090 --> 00:49:03,500
Speaker 2: countries therefore should work harder

807
00:49:04,459 --> 00:49:07,189
Speaker 2: at trying to improve ties within China and India, not,

808
00:49:07,199 --> 00:49:10,790
Speaker 2: not to make them best friends, but just to create

809
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:13,870
Speaker 2: a new motives with ending where they can live with

810
00:49:13,879 --> 00:49:17,129
Speaker 2: each other despite their differences that they have with each other.

811
00:49:18,489 --> 00:49:22,389
Speaker 1: Finally, uh a question on Singapore, uh we were again

812
00:49:22,399 --> 00:49:26,939
Speaker 1: speaking in the few days after the presidential election here

813
00:49:26,949 --> 00:49:30,020
Speaker 1: and Chairman Sharaman will be the president of Singapore. We

814
00:49:30,030 --> 00:49:33,540
Speaker 1: haven't really talked about Singapore in the bigger geopolitical contest,

815
00:49:33,550 --> 00:49:37,500
Speaker 1: whether it is the US China relationship or ASEAN or India.

816
00:49:37,510 --> 00:49:39,799
Speaker 1: So a few thoughts on where Singapore is headed.

817
00:49:40,929 --> 00:49:46,060
Speaker 2: Well, I would say the election of Taman Shana as

818
00:49:46,070 --> 00:49:47,679
Speaker 2: president of Singapore

819
00:49:48,419 --> 00:49:52,270
Speaker 2: will be seen by future historians of Singapore 100 years

820
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:56,449
Speaker 2: from now as one of the most significant developments in

821
00:49:56,459 --> 00:49:57,669
Speaker 2: Singapore's history.

822
00:49:58,379 --> 00:50:01,639
Speaker 2: They will call it the BT and a eras the

823
00:50:01,649 --> 00:50:06,969
Speaker 2: before Taman and after Taman era eras. Why the reason

824
00:50:06,979 --> 00:50:09,989
Speaker 2: is that it is actually quite shocking

825
00:50:10,870 --> 00:50:13,199
Speaker 2: that in an open contest

826
00:50:13,989 --> 00:50:16,459
Speaker 2: between an Indian candidate

827
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,820
Speaker 2: and two Chinese candidates,

828
00:50:20,570 --> 00:50:24,658
Speaker 2: a country with 75% Chinese population

829
00:50:25,699 --> 00:50:32,229
Speaker 2: lacks the Indian with an overwhelming majority of 70%.

830
00:50:33,590 --> 00:50:38,320
Speaker 2: Now, that's that, that shows that Singapore has truly matured

831
00:50:38,330 --> 00:50:39,479
Speaker 2: as a nation

832
00:50:40,409 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 2: and the Singaporean identity today is stronger than their ethnic identities.

833
00:50:47,580 --> 00:50:49,379
Speaker 2: And this wasn't true when I was growing up as

834
00:50:49,389 --> 00:50:51,020
Speaker 2: a child in Singapore. By the way,

835
00:50:51,979 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 2: when I was growing up in the 19 fifties, there

836
00:50:55,050 --> 00:50:56,000
Speaker 2: was no Singapore,

837
00:50:57,110 --> 00:50:58,659
Speaker 2: right? You were a British colony

838
00:50:59,669 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 2: and there was no Singapore identity,

839
00:51:02,590 --> 00:51:05,959
Speaker 2: there was only, they only had our ethnic identities.

840
00:51:06,699 --> 00:51:09,270
Speaker 2: And it's shocking that in my lifetime,

841
00:51:10,300 --> 00:51:13,580
Speaker 2: we have gone from a country where our ethnic identity

842
00:51:13,590 --> 00:51:14,629
Speaker 2: was first

843
00:51:15,419 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 2: to a situation where our Singaporean identity is first,

844
00:51:19,790 --> 00:51:24,159
Speaker 2: that's a huge leap forward in our national development.

845
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:27,260
Speaker 2: And at the same time, you know, as I said,

846
00:51:27,270 --> 00:51:29,209
Speaker 2: in a uh short video

847
00:51:29,820 --> 00:51:33,709
Speaker 2: calling on Singaporeans to vote for, I said, you're gonna

848
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:37,620
Speaker 2: move into one of the most difficult geopolitical eras in

849
00:51:37,629 --> 00:51:41,459
Speaker 2: human history over the next 10 years because as I said,

850
00:51:41,469 --> 00:51:43,989
Speaker 2: at the very beginning, United States thinks it has 10

851
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:45,149
Speaker 2: years to stop China.

852
00:51:46,010 --> 00:51:49,969
Speaker 2: So the US China contest will now Kelly is the

853
00:51:49,979 --> 00:51:54,330
Speaker 2: job of the government of the day to protect Singapore geopolitically,

854
00:51:54,729 --> 00:51:58,449
Speaker 2: but to have a globally respected statesman

855
00:51:59,260 --> 00:52:00,909
Speaker 2: as your president

856
00:52:01,729 --> 00:52:04,459
Speaker 2: creates another layer of protection.

857
00:52:05,610 --> 00:52:09,689
Speaker 2: So we Singaporeans were very wise when they voted for

858
00:52:09,699 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 2: Tamanna

859
00:52:11,860 --> 00:52:15,870
Speaker 2: as their president. It shows you that Singaporeans can think

860
00:52:15,879 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 2: long term and realize, hey, when you go into troubled waters,

861
00:52:20,989 --> 00:52:24,089
Speaker 2: let's pick the best possible man to be the president.

862
00:52:25,020 --> 00:52:28,330
Speaker 2: So they understood very clearly that the message that I

863
00:52:28,340 --> 00:52:29,310
Speaker 2: put across

864
00:52:30,070 --> 00:52:31,009
Speaker 2: in the short video.

865
00:52:31,850 --> 00:52:36,020
Speaker 2: So I actually think that Singapore is going to therefore

866
00:52:36,489 --> 00:52:41,580
Speaker 2: go into this new uh era of geopolitical contestation

867
00:52:42,209 --> 00:52:45,379
Speaker 2: better equipped than it was in the past.

868
00:52:47,050 --> 00:52:50,389
Speaker 1: Well, I think that's a great optimistic point to end

869
00:52:50,399 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 1: this conversation, Kwai. Thank you so much for your time

870
00:52:53,530 --> 00:52:55,159
Speaker 1: and insights. My

871
00:52:55,169 --> 00:52:55,669
Speaker 2: pleasure.

872
00:52:56,409 --> 00:52:59,319
Speaker 1: Uh Thanks to our listeners as well. Kobe Time is

873
00:52:59,330 --> 00:53:03,300
Speaker 1: for information only and does not represent any trade recommendations.

874
00:53:03,479 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 1: All 107 episodes of the podcast are available on youtube

875
00:53:07,090 --> 00:53:11,250
Speaker 1: and all major podcast platforms including Apple Google and Spotify.

876
00:53:11,510 --> 00:53:14,209
Speaker 1: As for our research publications, webinars and live streams, you

877
00:53:14,219 --> 00:53:16,709
Speaker 1: can find them all by Googling D BS research Library.

878
00:53:16,979 --> 00:53:18,219
Speaker 1: Have a great day.