WEBVTT - DBS Kopi Time E083 - Munib Madni on Climate Investing

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<v Speaker 1>Hello. You're listening to Kobie time, a podcast series on

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<v Speaker 1>markets and economies from DBS group research. I'm camera big

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<v Speaker 1>chief economist. Welcome to our 83rd episode.

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<v Speaker 1>Today's guest or I should say return guest is winning

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<v Speaker 1>money ceo of Singapore based Pan are key partners. A

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<v Speaker 1>few years ago, money transition from a career in traditional

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<v Speaker 1>by side fund management to setting up a firm that

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<v Speaker 1>seeks to redefine the notion of wealth and its creation.

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<v Speaker 1>We talked about all this and more in Kobe time

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<v Speaker 1>back in 2020 and episode 16. I think both panicky

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<v Speaker 1>partners and Kobe time have come a long way since then.

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<v Speaker 1>In preparation for this podcast, I went back and listened

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<v Speaker 1>to that episode to those of you who haven't please

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<v Speaker 1>do by all means. It's a terrific primer on a

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<v Speaker 1>company's purpose and when it really draws from history as

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<v Speaker 1>well as economic and finance theory to underscore that point.

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<v Speaker 1>And also in that podcast you will hear money delving

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<v Speaker 1>into sustainability driven fund management, focusing on returns and progress

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<v Speaker 1>on four forms of capital, human, social, environmental and financial.

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<v Speaker 1>In today's podcast we will focus on the third capital,

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<v Speaker 1>environmental and the investment side. Guys around that. With that

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<v Speaker 1>context in place me welcome back to Covid time.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh We're good to be back. It was like a

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<v Speaker 2>long time ago.

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<v Speaker 1>It was early days of Covid. Yeah, indeed. Um we

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<v Speaker 1>had you in the show I think just a little

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<v Speaker 1>more than two years ago. So what have you and

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<v Speaker 1>Panicky partner has been up to during that time.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the last two years, uh as you know, it

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<v Speaker 2>seems like uh during Covid, uh you know, everything kind

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<v Speaker 2>of went silent and went very quiet, but I've got

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<v Speaker 2>to say that while, you know, while the humanity humanitarian

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<v Speaker 2>crisis that was happening unfolding both on a first one,

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<v Speaker 2>on a professional level, it impacted many, many people. And

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<v Speaker 2>and

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<v Speaker 2>you know, even at hockey partners, sadly we had our

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<v Speaker 2>own losses. Uh we had our co founder, christian droll

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<v Speaker 2>passed away in a tragic incident.

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<v Speaker 2>Um but you know, the team has come out of Covid,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, stronger. I'm proud that we've kind of delivered

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<v Speaker 2>on the the purpose that for which partners was built,

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<v Speaker 2>we've been sort of diligently executing on our purpose of

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<v Speaker 2>having a couple owners and users come together um to

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<v Speaker 2>make a better place a better

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<v Speaker 2>world. And then our own investing process has evolved since

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<v Speaker 2>the last time we spoke and we've incorporated purpose into

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<v Speaker 2>how our portfolio companies are judged. And I'm glad to

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<v Speaker 2>say that, you know, that that's been a sort of

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<v Speaker 2>a positive sort of, you could say progress for anarchy

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<v Speaker 2>since we last met as a b corp

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<v Speaker 2>We've been playing a very important role. We believe in

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<v Speaker 2>building a sustainable investing ecosystem in Singapore. We've had almost

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<v Speaker 2>30 interns now with us over the last four years

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<v Speaker 2>since we started, uh and and we were having our

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<v Speaker 2>second Global Pandas Forum, so building and shaping the sustainable

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<v Speaker 2>investing ecosystem not only in Singapore, and Asia is very important.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think, you know, the last thing is and

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<v Speaker 2>where we are right now is that that the team

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<v Speaker 2>has actually broadened its investment focus from sustainable investing. And

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<v Speaker 2>now we're focusing and moving towards investing with environmental impact.

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<v Speaker 2>If you recall my team and myself have,

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<v Speaker 2>I've got and and spend a lot of time on

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<v Speaker 2>environmental capital, injustice call. And the team is now ready

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<v Speaker 2>to help our clients deliver on some of the environmental

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<v Speaker 2>ambitions that they have through their investments. So we're we're

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<v Speaker 2>we're nicely placed in a world that most probably is

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<v Speaker 2>not that nicely placed at the market.

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<v Speaker 1>Indeed, uh I I would like to devote today's podcast

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<v Speaker 1>instead in that context. And getting deep into the issue

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<v Speaker 1>of climate investing. So, let's start by you helping us

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<v Speaker 1>understand what is climate change in the context of markets

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<v Speaker 1>and what is climate investing?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. So, first climate change, in terms of the markets,

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<v Speaker 2>if you recall last time when we spoke to me,

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<v Speaker 2>we talked about externalities, you know, that was a big

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<v Speaker 2>part of the conversation we had was that many of

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<v Speaker 2>the externalities, human social environmental that were outsourced by companies.

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<v Speaker 2>And uh and investors just took it as it was

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<v Speaker 2>they were being internalized. One of the biggest externalities. The

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<v Speaker 2>mother of all negative environmental externalities is climate change.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh and I think that's where in the context of

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<v Speaker 2>the markets, climate changes could be seen as a failure

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<v Speaker 2>a failure of markets to incorporate internalize this very expensive

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<v Speaker 2>cost that is now not only cost for the current generation,

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<v Speaker 2>but for the future generations as well. And and I

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<v Speaker 2>think that's an important sort of uh you know, uh

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<v Speaker 2>realization that the world is having on various levels that

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<v Speaker 2>Climate change is a market failure and the markets are

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<v Speaker 2>now trying to sort of correct for it. And and listen,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't want to be too hard on the markets.

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<v Speaker 2>You and I have have been market participants for the last,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, almost 30 years now and we do believe

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<v Speaker 2>in the pot

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<v Speaker 2>the value that markets bring. But this whole challenge of

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<v Speaker 2>climate change, it is so broad and global in its nature.

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<v Speaker 2>Most other externalities can be very, let's say localized regionalized

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<v Speaker 2>and therefore the cost can be very focused and that

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<v Speaker 2>the markets can become a lot more effective. But I

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<v Speaker 2>think here the whole challenges that climate change, the costs

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<v Speaker 2>are global and also political in nature.

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<v Speaker 2>And that that is where climate change in in a

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<v Speaker 2>way has been a market failure and for good reasons,

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<v Speaker 2>it's just a very, very, very tough challenge to deal with.

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<v Speaker 2>Um if you now move towards climate investing climate investing,

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<v Speaker 2>it's relatively new. The concept of climate investing, there's no

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<v Speaker 2>clear definition of climate investing if you can in its

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<v Speaker 2>essence is basically investing to help with solutions around climate

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<v Speaker 2>change and if you go a bit deeper into it,

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<v Speaker 2>its base

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<v Speaker 2>basically investing to help decarbonization, you know, removing carbon, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>from the environment or reducing the output of carbon into

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<v Speaker 2>the environment and various other emissions. So that is where

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<v Speaker 2>climate investing has now uh, come to become a topic

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<v Speaker 2>of discussion on various levels, especially within the investing community.

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<v Speaker 2>It is all about

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<v Speaker 2>investors. Also, the good news is the investors are moving

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<v Speaker 2>from again risk and return to risk, return and impact.

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<v Speaker 2>So that way, climate investing is different from traditional investing here.

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<v Speaker 2>Many of the investors who are actually wanting to invest

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<v Speaker 2>for climate change

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<v Speaker 2>are coming with, with a, with a strong focus on

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<v Speaker 2>genuine environmental impact towards climate. If you look at climate investing,

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<v Speaker 2>I would say it's almost at its Gatorade moment, not

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<v Speaker 2>What I, what I, what I mean by that is that,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, if you look at sports drink drinks and

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<v Speaker 2>the phenomenal round sports drinks, right. The first sports drink

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<v Speaker 2>was Lucas aid in 1927 and that was almost athletes

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<v Speaker 2>that were elite

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<v Speaker 2>By 1965. When Gatorade came about, Gatorade was the first

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<v Speaker 2>sports drink that was sort of popularized for average athletes, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>for anyone doing any exercise. Gatorade became the go to

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<v Speaker 2>drink for their sports sort of, uh, sort of needs.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think where, that's where we are at now

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<v Speaker 2>with even climate investing. Gatorade at that time, when it

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<v Speaker 2>started in 1965, it actually was just sugar, salt

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<v Speaker 2>and lemon juice to make it taste a bit better.

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<v Speaker 2>But it's since then, you could say, as sport springs

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<v Speaker 2>have evolved and become isotonic and also very customized. We

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<v Speaker 2>are going to see that happen with climate investing as well,

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<v Speaker 2>but at this point in time, it's still very early

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<v Speaker 2>days when we're having this conversation in two years time,

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<v Speaker 2>when you're doing your 150th copy time, uh, some of

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<v Speaker 2>the questions you'll ask me, maybe my answers will be

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<v Speaker 2>slightly different because it is evolving very quickly,

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<v Speaker 1>so many as, you know, this is not necessarily a

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<v Speaker 1>problem in the circle that you and I live in.

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<v Speaker 1>But there is a huge community of climate skeptics out

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<v Speaker 1>there who will challenge the first notion that there's a

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<v Speaker 1>negative externality that manmade activities are causing the bulk of

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<v Speaker 1>climate change, that some of it is, you know, something

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<v Speaker 1>that's a constant through the history of this planet

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<v Speaker 1>now, to those skeptics, I mean, do we just ignore

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<v Speaker 1>them or there is a rational for even those people

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<v Speaker 1>to be part of climate investing?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think

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<v Speaker 2>if you want to sort of bring them on board,

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<v Speaker 2>you cannot ignore them. And I think what you need

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<v Speaker 2>to do is need to understand where that is coming from, right?

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<v Speaker 2>And I think that is one of the reasons why

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<v Speaker 2>climate change, climate investing is very politicized this whole issue

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<v Speaker 2>of carbon is very political, is exactly that, that a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of people who are skeptics are coming from either

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<v Speaker 2>a fear of this transition of

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<v Speaker 2>decarbonization, impacting and let's face it, decarbonization is gonna be

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<v Speaker 2>challenging and expensive from on an economy on companies and individuals.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's why we often talk about just transition. So,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the word just transition is also become very topical,

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<v Speaker 2>especially in making sure that as we transition away from

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<v Speaker 2>fossil fuels and let's say, other agricultural practices that are

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<v Speaker 2>maybe not that

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<v Speaker 2>positive for the overall environment, that we do it in

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<v Speaker 2>a way that is just and fair for everyone, not

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<v Speaker 2>just the global south, but also for the developed countries

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<v Speaker 2>and the various industry that they're operating. And I think

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<v Speaker 2>the skeptics either coming from a lack of, let's say,

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<v Speaker 2>the knowledge around the science behind it,

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<v Speaker 2>Which I think now the skepticism is especially around climate

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<v Speaker 2>change is definitely a lot more reduced than it was,

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<v Speaker 2>let's say five years ago, 10 years ago. It's pretty

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<v Speaker 2>much an accepted fact. Now, the size and scale of

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<v Speaker 2>it can be questioned. The timing of it can be

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<v Speaker 2>questioned and the solutions are definitely going to be questioned

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<v Speaker 2>but I think it's the few that are left the

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<v Speaker 2>skeptics engaging with them, understanding what is their fear or

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<v Speaker 2>the concern that is the one way to deal with this.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think the two facts. money, what is number one,

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<v Speaker 1>the earth is warming and number two, there is a

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<v Speaker 1>linkage between human activities and global warming. Your point is

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<v Speaker 1>that I think there's not that much room for debate

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<v Speaker 1>on those who think the science is pretty solid in

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<v Speaker 1>these areas.

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<v Speaker 2>And even if let's say we are

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<v Speaker 2>exaggerating it by 50% this whole idea that temperatures going

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<v Speaker 2>to 2.5% is going to lead to serious, serious and

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<v Speaker 2>and you know, there's been some studies done that done

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<v Speaker 2>that if we don't, let's say no action is taken

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<v Speaker 2>by the end of the century, the global economy is

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<v Speaker 2>going to be lower than 18% and where it is now,

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<v Speaker 2>just the economic damage that can be done is massive

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<v Speaker 2>for those who want to put it in financial terms,

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<v Speaker 2>for those who do

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<v Speaker 2>I want to put, you know, the risk of climate

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<v Speaker 2>change into financial terms, They just need to see what's

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<v Speaker 2>happening around the world in terms of temperatures and climates

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<v Speaker 2>and all the rest. And let's say, even if what

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<v Speaker 2>we are doing now helps that incrementally, that should be

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<v Speaker 2>a positive for everyone. So I think making it a

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<v Speaker 2>binary event is gone. It's more, you know, it's it's

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<v Speaker 2>a scaling issue now for many people in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>time size effort, fear everything right there's a whole spectrum,

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<v Speaker 1>how big is climate investing now? And even before you

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<v Speaker 1>answer that question might follow up to the question is

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<v Speaker 1>why isn't it bigger?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. So climate investing, as I said, if you incorporate

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<v Speaker 2>in the broader context, it is about decarbonization all the efforts, right?

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<v Speaker 2>So if you add in all the government aspirations and

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<v Speaker 2>ambitions and promises, then already we were talking in the

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<v Speaker 2>trillions of dollars and even going forward, it's going to

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<v Speaker 2>be trillions of dollars of investments.

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<v Speaker 2>I think there was a Bloomberg uh article last year

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<v Speaker 2>that said that for us to get to net zero

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<v Speaker 2>by 2050 100 and $73 trillion have to be spent uh,

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<v Speaker 2>in climate investing.

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<v Speaker 2>Um, in the same vein, there was another research done

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<v Speaker 2>by another research house and, and they had just china

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<v Speaker 2>alone needs to spend 100 and $65 billion per annum

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<v Speaker 2>to get to their carbon neutral 2060 target. So the numeric,

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<v Speaker 2>from the government's perspective, a massive, even if you look

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<v Speaker 2>at the Eu green deal, that the latest, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the inflation reduction act of us,

0:13:15.955 --> 0:13:18.525
<v Speaker 2>there's big chunks of these that I have got climate

0:13:18.535 --> 0:13:21.475
<v Speaker 2>in it from the government's perspective. So if you look

0:13:21.475 --> 0:13:24.495
<v Speaker 2>at governments and even companies that are transitioning their own

0:13:24.495 --> 0:13:28.645
<v Speaker 2>models business models and the Capex that they're spending internally.

0:13:28.655 --> 0:13:32.095
<v Speaker 2>That's fairly big already. Now, that is one form of investing.

0:13:32.095 --> 0:13:34.525
<v Speaker 2>But for the purposes of today, let's say, what we're

0:13:34.525 --> 0:13:38.835
<v Speaker 2>talking about is private individuals, institutions investing in, let's say

0:13:38.845 --> 0:13:40.945
<v Speaker 2>carbon and, and, and, and climate

0:13:41.110 --> 0:13:47.420
<v Speaker 2>here. The dollar values are still very relatively low. Morningstar

0:13:47.420 --> 0:13:49.809
<v Speaker 2>had a number in april this year that there's roughly

0:13:49.809 --> 0:13:54.300
<v Speaker 2>860 funds or E. T. S. That are out there

0:13:54.300 --> 0:13:58.100
<v Speaker 2>in the market that are climate, or probably called climate related, right?

0:13:58.110 --> 0:14:01.550
<v Speaker 2>And the total value in that is about $408 billion

0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.290
<v Speaker 2>according to Morningstar. And that number has doubled in the

0:14:04.300 --> 0:14:07.240
<v Speaker 2>in 2021. And it's about 7 to 8 times what

0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:08.890
<v Speaker 2>it was in 2017.

0:14:09.190 --> 0:14:12.059
<v Speaker 2>But 408 billion is not very big. It's still very small.

0:14:12.059 --> 0:14:15.920
<v Speaker 2>It's still very early days. And, and, and, you know,

0:14:15.929 --> 0:14:20.440
<v Speaker 2>you ask also, what is the reason it's being held back?

0:14:20.450 --> 0:14:23.660
<v Speaker 2>I think there's two bottlenecks here. One is, the first

0:14:23.660 --> 0:14:27.360
<v Speaker 2>is that, as I mentioned for climate investing, investors are

0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.890
<v Speaker 2>looking for environmental impact as much as they're looking for

0:14:30.900 --> 0:14:31.900
<v Speaker 2>risk adjusted returns,

0:14:31.915 --> 0:14:39.265
<v Speaker 2>the impact, environmental impact data that people, institutional investors, even

0:14:39.265 --> 0:14:44.795
<v Speaker 2>individual investors are having at this point in time is, uh,

0:14:44.805 --> 0:14:47.755
<v Speaker 2>still coming slowly. It's not

0:14:48.230 --> 0:14:53.260
<v Speaker 2>well identified and structured enough for these institutional investors who

0:14:53.260 --> 0:14:57.900
<v Speaker 2>are so used to their risk return frameworks to incorporate

0:14:57.900 --> 0:15:00.700
<v Speaker 2>that into it. So, I think the impact, the more

0:15:00.710 --> 0:15:03.670
<v Speaker 2>over time as we get more and more environmental data

0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:08.119
<v Speaker 2>that can support the impact that investments are making, the

0:15:08.130 --> 0:15:10.800
<v Speaker 2>more money we're going to see in into this space, Right?

0:15:10.810 --> 0:15:13.270
<v Speaker 2>And so that's the first bottle, like it's just not

0:15:13.270 --> 0:15:14.800
<v Speaker 2>enough data to prove that they

0:15:14.810 --> 0:15:19.240
<v Speaker 2>impact and investment is having, is there? That's one. The

0:15:19.250 --> 0:15:21.550
<v Speaker 2>second one, I would say, is also a lack of

0:15:21.550 --> 0:15:28.110
<v Speaker 2>genuine climate funds and investment vehicles, even though there were

0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:33.800
<v Speaker 2>860 climate or climate related funds. And E. T. F.

0:15:33.810 --> 0:15:39.010
<v Speaker 2>As I mentioned very the whole spectrum, if you look

0:15:39.010 --> 0:15:41.390
<v Speaker 2>at the if you break them down and look at

0:15:41.830 --> 0:15:44.160
<v Speaker 2>the kind of climate of actions they were taking,

0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:49.100
<v Speaker 2>some could argue they were not impactful enough and therefore,

0:15:49.110 --> 0:15:51.940
<v Speaker 2>the investors were not sort of enamored with them. So

0:15:51.940 --> 0:15:56.290
<v Speaker 2>I think over time, as more and more genuine climate

0:15:56.290 --> 0:15:59.239
<v Speaker 2>funds come through people like myself and my team can

0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:04.979
<v Speaker 2>deliver environmental impact data points that are supportive of investing

0:16:04.980 --> 0:16:05.440
<v Speaker 2>in climate,

0:16:05.710 --> 0:16:08.360
<v Speaker 2>you will find that there's gonna be more, As I said,

0:16:08.370 --> 0:16:11.910
<v Speaker 2>we're at the Gatorade moment of climate investing, we need

0:16:11.910 --> 0:16:14.130
<v Speaker 2>to get to the isotonic very quickly and that will

0:16:14.130 --> 0:16:17.540
<v Speaker 2>happen in the coming years, so that they're the two

0:16:17.540 --> 0:16:21.190
<v Speaker 2>bottlenecks why climate investing, I think has still been a bit, uh,

0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.190
<v Speaker 2>you know, it's growing, but from a very low base

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:25.600
<v Speaker 2>and will continue to grow.

0:16:26.300 --> 0:16:30.420
<v Speaker 1>So I'm sure you're aware that this whole E. S. G.

0:16:30.420 --> 0:16:33.900
<v Speaker 1>Complex and climate is of course the integral part of

0:16:33.900 --> 0:16:37.490
<v Speaker 1>that has received criticism over recent years. You know, the

0:16:37.490 --> 0:16:40.359
<v Speaker 1>greenwashing aspect, to your point that there are lots of

0:16:40.370 --> 0:16:45.070
<v Speaker 1>funds out there that are preferably investing in green activities,

0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:48.110
<v Speaker 1>but when one looks at the stocks that they hold,

0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:51.450
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't look that impressive. And then we have famously

0:16:51.450 --> 0:16:55.220
<v Speaker 1>had Elon musk of Tesla come out and criticized

0:16:55.900 --> 0:17:00.340
<v Speaker 1>because in certain perspective his companies are are not as

0:17:00.340 --> 0:17:02.550
<v Speaker 1>climate friendly as one would think, given that they make

0:17:02.550 --> 0:17:06.719
<v Speaker 1>electric cars and other you know, climate friendly products. So

0:17:06.730 --> 0:17:09.200
<v Speaker 1>gives a sense of where you stand on this issue

0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:12.470
<v Speaker 1>that some backlash about the E. S. G. Ratings, the

0:17:12.470 --> 0:17:16.270
<v Speaker 1>backlash around um you know, which companies should be, you

0:17:16.270 --> 0:17:18.409
<v Speaker 1>know rated highly or low and so on.

0:17:18.750 --> 0:17:23.590
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's interesting you say that Tamil because again, if

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:26.500
<v Speaker 2>you know, listening back to our conversation two years ago,

0:17:26.510 --> 0:17:28.910
<v Speaker 2>one of the things that I predicted then was the

0:17:28.910 --> 0:17:33.660
<v Speaker 2>term E. S. G. May not even exist in 5

0:17:33.660 --> 0:17:37.270
<v Speaker 2>to 10 years time, Right? And more recently we saw some,

0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:40.879
<v Speaker 2>you know, articles on E. S. G. Being cut into

0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:43.790
<v Speaker 2>pieces and then this is what's happening now, right? So

0:17:43.790 --> 0:17:45.750
<v Speaker 2>it's actually I got it wrong, it's it was much

0:17:45.750 --> 0:17:47.159
<v Speaker 2>faster than I thought.

0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:51.130
<v Speaker 2>So, so the E. Part is being now separated, The

0:17:51.130 --> 0:17:53.910
<v Speaker 2>s the social side is being separated. G. Has always

0:17:53.910 --> 0:17:58.050
<v Speaker 2>been there. So I'm not surprised that there's been uh

0:17:58.060 --> 0:18:01.150
<v Speaker 2>you know, uh breakdown of E. S. G. Into its

0:18:01.150 --> 0:18:04.730
<v Speaker 2>components and rightly so, so

0:18:05.030 --> 0:18:08.610
<v Speaker 2>anything that is new and evolving is gonna get flak

0:18:08.609 --> 0:18:12.620
<v Speaker 2>is gonna get questioned. And and E. S. G. And E. S.

0:18:12.619 --> 0:18:16.780
<v Speaker 2>G funds and E. S. G. Investment strategies are rightly

0:18:16.780 --> 0:18:19.369
<v Speaker 2>being questioned, you know, and and and but only to

0:18:19.369 --> 0:18:21.760
<v Speaker 2>make them better. So, you know, if you look at

0:18:21.770 --> 0:18:26.220
<v Speaker 2>various regulators globally, again, just focusing on the E. S. G.

0:18:26.220 --> 0:18:28.520
<v Speaker 2>As an investment class, if you want to call it,

0:18:28.530 --> 0:18:30.200
<v Speaker 2>if you look at all

0:18:30.210 --> 0:18:33.730
<v Speaker 2>the regulators globally from europe with S. F. D. R.

0:18:33.730 --> 0:18:37.920
<v Speaker 2>Article 89 rules that have come in to even M. A. S.

0:18:37.930 --> 0:18:39.660
<v Speaker 2>I think a week and a half ago, two weeks

0:18:39.660 --> 0:18:44.330
<v Speaker 2>ago came out with new E. S. G. Fund disclosure requirements. H. K. M. A.

0:18:44.330 --> 0:18:47.690
<v Speaker 2>Had theirs last year Australia as it came up with

0:18:47.690 --> 0:18:52.720
<v Speaker 2>this last month as well. We are finding that investors

0:18:52.720 --> 0:18:55.370
<v Speaker 2>and invest in E. S. G. Strata,

0:18:55.380 --> 0:19:00.180
<v Speaker 2>even climate strategies are being monitored now as an investment

0:19:00.180 --> 0:19:04.780
<v Speaker 2>class and therefore being required to step up and no

0:19:04.780 --> 0:19:08.690
<v Speaker 2>longer can be sort of green washed and and you know,

0:19:08.700 --> 0:19:12.790
<v Speaker 2>rainbow wash as people often say. So, so this is

0:19:12.790 --> 0:19:14.830
<v Speaker 2>this is part and parcel of an evolution of an

0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:19.950
<v Speaker 2>investment class as a class that is required. I've been

0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:23.300
<v Speaker 2>uh you know, I welcome it. I think it's great,

0:19:23.310 --> 0:19:24.750
<v Speaker 2>it's making sure that

0:19:25.250 --> 0:19:29.020
<v Speaker 2>fund managers who are claiming that they are spending time

0:19:29.020 --> 0:19:32.670
<v Speaker 2>and effort like we are at an occupied doing and

0:19:32.670 --> 0:19:34.310
<v Speaker 2>spending time on uh

0:19:34.470 --> 0:19:38.230
<v Speaker 2>the environment side, social human capital side that that they

0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.810
<v Speaker 2>can prove it and and people who are not, or

0:19:41.810 --> 0:19:44.780
<v Speaker 2>have no intentions of that, they don't then participate in

0:19:44.780 --> 0:19:48.420
<v Speaker 2>the space. So it's a welcome space. I'm not fearful.

0:19:48.430 --> 0:19:52.070
<v Speaker 2>Most genuine E S. G, or e investors are not

0:19:52.070 --> 0:19:56.730
<v Speaker 2>fearful if anything welcome this. Um, so, yeah, it makes

0:19:56.730 --> 0:20:00.110
<v Speaker 2>us makes the whole process a lot more christmas and

0:20:00.109 --> 0:20:01.620
<v Speaker 2>correct and accurate.

0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.540
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, the part of the data that you

0:20:05.540 --> 0:20:09.790
<v Speaker 1>talk about, I think it is useful and and relevant

0:20:09.790 --> 0:20:11.379
<v Speaker 1>to measure companies

0:20:11.869 --> 0:20:15.919
<v Speaker 1>carbon footprint and the steps it's taking to ameliorate that

0:20:15.930 --> 0:20:20.390
<v Speaker 1>mixing that up with its human resource practices or diversity. Um,

0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:22.689
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, we would all like every company

0:20:22.690 --> 0:20:25.060
<v Speaker 1>to be noble and do the right thing. But as

0:20:25.060 --> 0:20:27.470
<v Speaker 1>far as climate change is concerned that the environment doesn't

0:20:27.470 --> 0:20:30.690
<v Speaker 1>really care about your human resource practice or the diversity

0:20:30.690 --> 0:20:33.250
<v Speaker 1>for staff. So I think that, you know, as you said,

0:20:33.250 --> 0:20:35.720
<v Speaker 1>that it's getting sliced up in a way, it's probably

0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:37.400
<v Speaker 1>the right thing to do that. You know, if you

0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:39.730
<v Speaker 1>are an activist investor who really cares about

0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:42.050
<v Speaker 1>the s and the g part, it doesn't have to

0:20:42.050 --> 0:20:44.540
<v Speaker 1>be attached to E and he should not be like

0:20:44.540 --> 0:20:46.990
<v Speaker 1>a company like Tesla, which arguably is doing a lot

0:20:46.990 --> 0:20:50.810
<v Speaker 1>for reducing our carbon footprint should not be mixed up

0:20:50.810 --> 0:20:54.429
<v Speaker 1>with it. Again, you know, workplace environment and so on. Um,

0:20:54.440 --> 0:21:01.020
<v Speaker 1>so if I'm an investor, where should I focus on

0:21:01.020 --> 0:21:03.430
<v Speaker 1>as a climate or a carbon investor.

0:21:03.920 --> 0:21:06.950
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so it's it's, uh, as I said, the whole

0:21:06.950 --> 0:21:12.220
<v Speaker 2>idea of climate investing is about decarbonization. Right? So, and

0:21:12.220 --> 0:21:16.840
<v Speaker 2>when people think of decarbonization, the go to, uh, let's

0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:19.730
<v Speaker 2>say focus areas for investors tends to be

0:21:19.880 --> 0:21:24.390
<v Speaker 2>the cost of carbon, uh, or the price of carbon itself.

0:21:24.400 --> 0:21:27.310
<v Speaker 2>And the second area that people go to its technology.

0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:30.200
<v Speaker 2>There are two things people think, okay, I can either

0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:33.350
<v Speaker 2>invest in carbon itself, the cost of carbon or I

0:21:33.350 --> 0:21:36.500
<v Speaker 2>can invest in technology that helps reduce the carbon

0:21:36.520 --> 0:21:39.450
<v Speaker 2>footprint and the carbon. But I think there's a third

0:21:39.450 --> 0:21:44.139
<v Speaker 2>element to that, which is maybe less talked about, and

0:21:44.140 --> 0:21:47.990
<v Speaker 2>I think very, very important without it, you cannot as

0:21:47.990 --> 0:21:50.930
<v Speaker 2>an investor make money on technology or on just pure

0:21:50.940 --> 0:21:55.350
<v Speaker 2>following carbon prices. And that is policy, uh, carbon policy

0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:58.260
<v Speaker 2>that countries have, as I said, and these carbon policies

0:21:58.260 --> 0:22:02.410
<v Speaker 2>of countries are still very national, uh, nationally focused

0:22:02.740 --> 0:22:05.679
<v Speaker 2>at best, regionally focused in the case of Eu, but

0:22:05.690 --> 0:22:09.879
<v Speaker 2>most of it is uh, nationally focused. Now, if I

0:22:09.890 --> 0:22:12.230
<v Speaker 2>to show you what I mean by this first, if

0:22:12.230 --> 0:22:14.960
<v Speaker 2>you look at carbon price. Uh, and, and the cost

0:22:14.960 --> 0:22:18.480
<v Speaker 2>of carbon. People often look at the carbon cost of

0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:22.040
<v Speaker 2>an industry as a proxy for the investment opportunity. And

0:22:22.040 --> 0:22:26.280
<v Speaker 2>that is mathematically, carbon price, times volume, volume is

0:22:26.530 --> 0:22:31.470
<v Speaker 2>for carbon is now identified underscore 123, you can do

0:22:31.470 --> 0:22:33.350
<v Speaker 2>it for a country, you can do it for a company,

0:22:33.350 --> 0:22:35.070
<v Speaker 2>you can do it for sector, you can even do

0:22:35.070 --> 0:22:37.960
<v Speaker 2>it for you? And I write carbon volumes is fine,

0:22:37.970 --> 0:22:42.020
<v Speaker 2>It's a carbon price. That is very broad spectrum. So

0:22:42.020 --> 0:22:45.840
<v Speaker 2>you have anywhere from carbon taxes of $2.50 in Mexico,

0:22:45.850 --> 0:22:48.890
<v Speaker 2>230 in Sweden. You know, you can have carbon prices

0:22:48.890 --> 0:22:52.080
<v Speaker 2>that are under the compliance markets at 80

0:22:52.090 --> 0:22:55.640
<v Speaker 2>euros in europe where you can have under the East

0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:59.449
<v Speaker 2>Coast R. G. D. I initiative at 6 to $12.

0:22:59.460 --> 0:23:02.740
<v Speaker 2>So you have carbon prices that are very broad range

0:23:02.750 --> 0:23:05.220
<v Speaker 2>even though we know the volume. So people who are

0:23:05.220 --> 0:23:08.640
<v Speaker 2>looking at carbon cost in totality as an investment opportunity

0:23:08.640 --> 0:23:11.510
<v Speaker 2>or focus area, I think what they need to do

0:23:11.510 --> 0:23:14.420
<v Speaker 2>is they need to move it around and say, who

0:23:14.420 --> 0:23:17.490
<v Speaker 2>is willing to pay for the cost of the carbon,

0:23:17.490 --> 0:23:17.650
<v Speaker 2>is

0:23:18.140 --> 0:23:20.070
<v Speaker 2>what I mean by here is the people who are

0:23:20.070 --> 0:23:25.879
<v Speaker 2>paying for decarbonization are again, either the governments through their,

0:23:25.890 --> 0:23:31.389
<v Speaker 2>let's say, the eu, uh, carbon border adjustment mechanism for example,

0:23:31.390 --> 0:23:36.520
<v Speaker 2>or tax, uh, government taxes or even, let's say regulators

0:23:36.520 --> 0:23:40.149
<v Speaker 2>like the California Air Board, Air Resources Board, they're paying

0:23:40.150 --> 0:23:43.220
<v Speaker 2>for carbon decarbonization with their credit systems.

0:23:43.480 --> 0:23:49.080
<v Speaker 2>Even let's say, companies who have regulated carbon taxes, they

0:23:49.080 --> 0:23:51.530
<v Speaker 2>would be willing to pay for carbon offsets because they

0:23:51.530 --> 0:23:54.420
<v Speaker 2>know they've got taxes to pay for. So for for

0:23:54.420 --> 0:23:57.840
<v Speaker 2>for for most investors, I think one needs to look at,

0:23:57.850 --> 0:24:01.600
<v Speaker 2>who are the decarbonization payers, what is their size? What

0:24:01.600 --> 0:24:04.000
<v Speaker 2>is their ambition and what is their ability to pay?

0:24:04.270 --> 0:24:07.190
<v Speaker 2>Because you as a carbon investor don't want to be

0:24:07.190 --> 0:24:11.640
<v Speaker 2>relying on someone who is promising you a price for carbon,

0:24:11.640 --> 0:24:14.930
<v Speaker 2>who then disappears in six months time. And I'll give

0:24:14.930 --> 0:24:18.150
<v Speaker 2>you a live example of that. Is that if you

0:24:18.160 --> 0:24:22.639
<v Speaker 2>have a look just last week, uh, India decided that

0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:25.740
<v Speaker 2>they're not going to allow for any carbon offsets to

0:24:25.740 --> 0:24:26.580
<v Speaker 2>be exported

0:24:26.869 --> 0:24:27.500
<v Speaker 1>right.

0:24:27.510 --> 0:24:29.990
<v Speaker 2>That means all carbon offices in India are to be

0:24:29.990 --> 0:24:32.260
<v Speaker 2>kept in India. So anyone who is relying on the

0:24:32.260 --> 0:24:34.760
<v Speaker 2>carbon offsets or investing in carbon offsets from India to

0:24:34.760 --> 0:24:38.290
<v Speaker 2>be exported to the rest of the world. Now that's gone.

0:24:38.300 --> 0:24:41.920
<v Speaker 2>That opportunity is gone because guess what it was? The

0:24:41.920 --> 0:24:46.100
<v Speaker 2>policy around carbon dictated what the carbon market was doing

0:24:46.109 --> 0:24:47.290
<v Speaker 2>in India.

0:24:47.410 --> 0:24:50.470
<v Speaker 2>So that, that, that sort of reminded me. And by

0:24:50.470 --> 0:24:52.689
<v Speaker 2>the way, India was one of four countries that in

0:24:52.690 --> 0:24:56.580
<v Speaker 2>the last few months have decided to stop their allowing

0:24:56.580 --> 0:24:59.710
<v Speaker 2>their offsets to be exported. Indonesia being 11 of them

0:24:59.710 --> 0:25:04.800
<v Speaker 2>papa new guinea, another Uruguay another. So, so again, carbon

0:25:04.800 --> 0:25:08.040
<v Speaker 2>policies superseded any kind of carbon pricing that you could

0:25:08.040 --> 0:25:10.230
<v Speaker 2>get from a carbon market. Now, if you look at

0:25:10.230 --> 0:25:14.470
<v Speaker 2>technology again, technology in a

0:25:14.670 --> 0:25:19.450
<v Speaker 2>carbon policy vacuum does not work. Um, but where there's

0:25:19.450 --> 0:25:21.740
<v Speaker 2>a carbon policy or let's say carbon related or climate

0:25:21.740 --> 0:25:26.740
<v Speaker 2>related policy is to encourage technology. It can, it can flourish.

0:25:26.740 --> 0:25:29.910
<v Speaker 2>And a prime example of that is hydrogen electrolyzers.

0:25:30.060 --> 0:25:34.050
<v Speaker 2>We know hydrogen electrolyzers, whether it be from fossil fuels

0:25:34.060 --> 0:25:37.670
<v Speaker 2>or renewables have been working perfectly fine for the last

0:25:37.670 --> 0:25:40.920
<v Speaker 2>100 years. But guess what? Green hydrogen now is considered

0:25:40.920 --> 0:25:45.119
<v Speaker 2>as one of the energy and sort of transition for

0:25:45.130 --> 0:25:48.709
<v Speaker 2>for for energy. And that is purely because of the

0:25:48.710 --> 0:25:51.369
<v Speaker 2>last decade and a half, we had some serious policy

0:25:51.369 --> 0:25:53.060
<v Speaker 2>incentives given to so

0:25:53.690 --> 0:25:56.119
<v Speaker 2>and to wind and other renewables that brought down the

0:25:56.119 --> 0:25:59.379
<v Speaker 2>prices of renewables, which then can be deployed into green

0:25:59.380 --> 0:26:03.900
<v Speaker 2>hydrogen or to create green hydrogen. So technology was there

0:26:03.900 --> 0:26:08.560
<v Speaker 2>for 100 years, we needed industrial policies to be ramped

0:26:08.560 --> 0:26:11.670
<v Speaker 2>up to bring the input price cost down. And now

0:26:11.680 --> 0:26:14.320
<v Speaker 2>there's plenty of also if you go to Korea who

0:26:14.320 --> 0:26:16.070
<v Speaker 2>wants to become the hydrogen hub of

0:26:16.080 --> 0:26:21.160
<v Speaker 2>the region, is industrial policy that is incentivizing technology to

0:26:21.160 --> 0:26:25.330
<v Speaker 2>be deployed. So to answer your question, when people are

0:26:25.330 --> 0:26:29.899
<v Speaker 2>looking to focus their investments, climate investing, just focusing on

0:26:29.910 --> 0:26:33.120
<v Speaker 2>carbon prices or focusing on technology by itself is not

0:26:33.119 --> 0:26:37.240
<v Speaker 2>good enough. One needs to focus on who are the

0:26:37.240 --> 0:26:39.090
<v Speaker 2>decarbonization payers

0:26:39.300 --> 0:26:42.990
<v Speaker 2>and who are reliable, what is their size and ability

0:26:42.990 --> 0:26:46.619
<v Speaker 2>to pay and then also what is the carbon policy

0:26:46.630 --> 0:26:49.300
<v Speaker 2>that is being deployed in different areas and different regions

0:26:49.300 --> 0:26:52.260
<v Speaker 2>and different sectors. That to me is another to go

0:26:52.260 --> 0:26:55.080
<v Speaker 2>to place for focus for carbon investors.

0:26:56.030 --> 0:26:58.630
<v Speaker 1>So it is very important given that, you know, we

0:26:58.630 --> 0:27:01.659
<v Speaker 1>are in this nation world, the gatorade moment, if you will,

0:27:01.670 --> 0:27:05.810
<v Speaker 1>that the policy environment is something that investors should keep

0:27:05.810 --> 0:27:08.420
<v Speaker 1>an eye on. So let's say, you know, go around

0:27:08.420 --> 0:27:10.240
<v Speaker 1>the world a little bit and talk a bit more

0:27:10.240 --> 0:27:13.460
<v Speaker 1>about the policy environment. So, you mentioned some degree of

0:27:13.470 --> 0:27:16.040
<v Speaker 1>climate nationalism out of India.

0:27:16.260 --> 0:27:19.750
<v Speaker 1>Um, I have seen the chinese do a lot of

0:27:19.750 --> 0:27:22.090
<v Speaker 1>work with the Europeans in recent years, whether it is

0:27:22.090 --> 0:27:27.220
<v Speaker 1>taxonomy or getting their emission trading system going by looking

0:27:27.220 --> 0:27:30.100
<v Speaker 1>at the experience, the Europeans and so on. And to

0:27:30.100 --> 0:27:33.639
<v Speaker 1>your point about the recent bill passed in the US

0:27:33.650 --> 0:27:37.280
<v Speaker 1>ostensibly called inflation reduction act, but really the focus there

0:27:37.280 --> 0:27:39.990
<v Speaker 1>seems to be used on climate change. So, are we

0:27:39.990 --> 0:27:43.930
<v Speaker 1>seeing a lot of tailwind with respect to climate regulation?

0:27:43.930 --> 0:27:45.959
<v Speaker 1>And are the regulations going in the right direction?

0:27:47.420 --> 0:27:48.410
<v Speaker 2>Um,

0:27:49.000 --> 0:27:52.420
<v Speaker 2>it's interesting Climate regulations have been going back and forth,

0:27:52.420 --> 0:27:56.230
<v Speaker 2>back and forth, back and forth in most countries, in europe,

0:27:56.230 --> 0:28:01.689
<v Speaker 2>europe has been in fairly much consistently in one direction. Yes,

0:28:01.690 --> 0:28:03.679
<v Speaker 2>the back and forth is much smaller, but if you

0:28:03.680 --> 0:28:06.880
<v Speaker 2>go to places like Australia or places like America, you've

0:28:06.880 --> 0:28:10.390
<v Speaker 2>seen big back and forth, right? And that will continue. Uh,

0:28:10.400 --> 0:28:12.820
<v Speaker 2>but if you look at somewhere like europe, I think

0:28:12.820 --> 0:28:14.890
<v Speaker 2>the consistency and the momentum has been made

0:28:15.150 --> 0:28:19.340
<v Speaker 2>and even with eu taxonomy and the green deal and

0:28:19.340 --> 0:28:21.250
<v Speaker 2>even some of the laws now that I mentioned in

0:28:21.430 --> 0:28:26.909
<v Speaker 2>the article 89 for investment vehicles, this consistency for climate investing,

0:28:26.910 --> 0:28:33.000
<v Speaker 2>climate change uh policy making carbon pricing the C. B. A. M.

0:28:33.000 --> 0:28:35.570
<v Speaker 2>That was brought into place. All of these things seem

0:28:35.570 --> 0:28:37.520
<v Speaker 2>to be inconsistent. But I think one thing people need

0:28:37.520 --> 0:28:40.400
<v Speaker 2>to keep in mind that europe is only 8 to

0:28:40.400 --> 0:28:40.800
<v Speaker 2>9 per se

0:28:40.810 --> 0:28:45.140
<v Speaker 2>total carbon footprint so they can get to net zero

0:28:45.150 --> 0:28:50.489
<v Speaker 2>for themselves. That's only 9% of our problem. There's another 91%

0:28:50.490 --> 0:28:52.230
<v Speaker 2>that and a big part of that which is coming

0:28:52.230 --> 0:28:56.880
<v Speaker 2>out of Asia is still growing is still growing. Even

0:28:56.890 --> 0:29:01.170
<v Speaker 2>if some of the climate ambitions that were announced by

0:29:01.180 --> 0:29:05.230
<v Speaker 2>Asian countries through their nationally determined contributions. NBC's last year

0:29:05.230 --> 0:29:06.720
<v Speaker 2>in Glasgow cop 26

0:29:06.870 --> 0:29:10.970
<v Speaker 2>incrementally they were good incrementally they were positive even though

0:29:10.970 --> 0:29:15.120
<v Speaker 2>the let's say the more ambitious environmentalists would say was

0:29:15.120 --> 0:29:18.060
<v Speaker 2>not good enough but incrementally India saying they're going to

0:29:18.060 --> 0:29:22.430
<v Speaker 2>be net zero by 27 70 china saying they're gonna

0:29:22.430 --> 0:29:27.670
<v Speaker 2>be carbon neutral by let's say uh 2060 even Australia

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:30.240
<v Speaker 2>coming back into the into the game and saying that

0:29:30.240 --> 0:29:32.780
<v Speaker 2>they're going to reduce under the new Labor Party they're

0:29:32.780 --> 0:29:33.920
<v Speaker 2>gonna they're going to reduce

0:29:33.930 --> 0:29:38.140
<v Speaker 2>their carbon emissions by 40% relative to 2005. These are

0:29:38.140 --> 0:29:42.880
<v Speaker 2>all positive incremental steps. So I think the the ambitions

0:29:42.890 --> 0:29:47.760
<v Speaker 2>for most countries have definitely gotten stronger where I think

0:29:47.760 --> 0:29:50.650
<v Speaker 2>there's a disconnect still especially in asia if we and

0:29:50.650 --> 0:29:53.610
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to just maybe focus on Asia where the

0:29:53.610 --> 0:29:57.340
<v Speaker 2>disconnect is is the policies that are gonna be there

0:29:57.340 --> 0:30:00.250
<v Speaker 2>to support and deliver some of these N. D. C.

0:30:00.250 --> 0:30:00.990
<v Speaker 2>S are not there.

0:30:01.160 --> 0:30:07.160
<v Speaker 2>There's a massive disconnect massive gap in industrial policy design tools,

0:30:07.170 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 2>frameworks that need to be created within Asia. Uh, and

0:30:13.450 --> 0:30:16.200
<v Speaker 2>my team and I, we believe in one of our

0:30:16.210 --> 0:30:19.459
<v Speaker 2>area focuses exactly on that is that we believe that

0:30:19.460 --> 0:30:22.390
<v Speaker 2>there's gonna be a tsunami of policies, tool

0:30:22.400 --> 0:30:26.830
<v Speaker 2>frameworks created in Asia to help them deliver on the NBC.

0:30:26.840 --> 0:30:30.510
<v Speaker 2>And they will take guidance and and let's say lessons

0:30:30.510 --> 0:30:36.160
<v Speaker 2>learnt from places like europe. Uh, and we already know

0:30:36.160 --> 0:30:38.750
<v Speaker 2>that the european, let's say carbon markets, the E. T. S.

0:30:38.750 --> 0:30:41.240
<v Speaker 2>Carbon markets have been around for a while now and

0:30:41.240 --> 0:30:43.640
<v Speaker 2>they're in their 3rd 4th version

0:30:43.650 --> 0:30:47.620
<v Speaker 2>And now they're finally, I think getting to a workable

0:30:47.620 --> 0:30:51.970
<v Speaker 2>model on 34 sectors. So I think the lessons learned

0:30:51.970 --> 0:30:54.840
<v Speaker 2>from Europe will be deployed in Asia that need to

0:30:54.840 --> 0:30:59.260
<v Speaker 2>be deployed fairly quickly this decade. If we won't have

0:30:59.260 --> 0:31:03.750
<v Speaker 2>any chance of getting to our climate change ambitions or

0:31:03.760 --> 0:31:04.890
<v Speaker 2>prevention of that.

0:31:05.480 --> 0:31:08.050
<v Speaker 1>So let's talk about that E. T. S. Issue a

0:31:08.050 --> 0:31:10.700
<v Speaker 1>little more because the chinese have also taken cues from

0:31:10.700 --> 0:31:14.380
<v Speaker 1>the Europeans and the various, you know, setbacks they had

0:31:14.390 --> 0:31:16.260
<v Speaker 1>in terms of getting the market to come up with

0:31:16.270 --> 0:31:20.300
<v Speaker 1>a useful set of information on carbon pricing to a

0:31:20.300 --> 0:31:22.820
<v Speaker 1>sort of top down the regulator sort of setting the

0:31:22.820 --> 0:31:26.110
<v Speaker 1>price and allowing the market to clear around that through volumes. Um,

0:31:26.120 --> 0:31:29.470
<v Speaker 1>so carbon markets, I mean, which has been around for

0:31:29.470 --> 0:31:34.580
<v Speaker 1>a while, Ikan 11 suggests that's the way to internalize externalities.

0:31:34.580 --> 0:31:35.390
<v Speaker 1>What's your view?

0:31:35.560 --> 0:31:41.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. So, again, instinctively you and I we've been trained

0:31:41.250 --> 0:31:44.810
<v Speaker 2>that let the let the markets do their job right?

0:31:44.820 --> 0:31:47.810
<v Speaker 2>And theoretically, a carbon market, what is its job, its

0:31:47.820 --> 0:31:51.030
<v Speaker 2>carbon market, by the way, let's take a step back for,

0:31:51.030 --> 0:31:51.730
<v Speaker 2>for our listeners,

0:31:51.740 --> 0:31:55.410
<v Speaker 2>there's two types of carbon markets. There's one the compliance market,

0:31:55.410 --> 0:31:58.230
<v Speaker 2>the regulated market that is controlled or regulated by either

0:31:58.230 --> 0:32:00.880
<v Speaker 2>a regulator, such as the, as I said, the California

0:32:00.880 --> 0:32:04.550
<v Speaker 2>Air Resource Board or by government such as the EU

0:32:04.560 --> 0:32:06.820
<v Speaker 2>doing the E U E T s. Right? That's the

0:32:06.820 --> 0:32:10.340
<v Speaker 2>compliance market, then there's the voluntary market and hear what

0:32:10.340 --> 0:32:12.440
<v Speaker 2>I will be talking about is more the compliance market

0:32:12.440 --> 0:32:15.410
<v Speaker 2>because the voluntary market is still very small, even though

0:32:15.410 --> 0:32:16.930
<v Speaker 2>it's growing, but it's still very small.

0:32:16.940 --> 0:32:17.780
<v Speaker 1>So

0:32:17.950 --> 0:32:18.320
<v Speaker 1>if

0:32:18.320 --> 0:32:21.590
<v Speaker 2>you look at the compliance market for carbon, its job

0:32:21.590 --> 0:32:26.250
<v Speaker 2>is to theoretically is to make sure that the price

0:32:26.250 --> 0:32:30.560
<v Speaker 2>of carbon is stable and slowly gradually increasing so that

0:32:30.560 --> 0:32:35.200
<v Speaker 2>it puts pressures on the polluters of carbon to incentivize

0:32:35.200 --> 0:32:38.190
<v Speaker 2>them to find ways to either reduce

0:32:38.470 --> 0:32:41.740
<v Speaker 2>their carbon footprint or to just get out of that

0:32:41.740 --> 0:32:44.450
<v Speaker 2>whole game altogether because it's going to become too costly

0:32:44.450 --> 0:32:47.260
<v Speaker 2>if carbon prices continue to go up. That's that's the

0:32:47.260 --> 0:32:49.110
<v Speaker 2>theoretical and that kind of makes sense.

0:32:49.460 --> 0:32:52.950
<v Speaker 2>The problem. And this is my again, my humble view

0:32:52.950 --> 0:32:56.160
<v Speaker 2>is that over the last 20 or so years that

0:32:56.160 --> 0:32:59.000
<v Speaker 2>we've had various forms of in europe E T. S

0:32:59.000 --> 0:33:03.480
<v Speaker 2>being the most the oldest form of carbon compliance market.

0:33:03.490 --> 0:33:08.390
<v Speaker 2>The problem is that we have not seen a stable rising, uh,

0:33:08.400 --> 0:33:13.230
<v Speaker 2>carbon price, let alone a reduction in carbon emissions by

0:33:13.230 --> 0:33:16.640
<v Speaker 2>the participants of those markets. So

0:33:17.600 --> 0:33:21.280
<v Speaker 2>That leads me to believe that there is some inherent problem.

0:33:21.290 --> 0:33:24.100
<v Speaker 2>We haven't sorted it out for 20 years. There's some

0:33:24.100 --> 0:33:28.340
<v Speaker 2>underlying challenges to the structure of those compliance markets that

0:33:28.340 --> 0:33:30.960
<v Speaker 2>need to be addressed. And and what are the challenges?

0:33:30.970 --> 0:33:34.200
<v Speaker 2>The challenges are that most compliance markets, when they get

0:33:34.200 --> 0:33:37.900
<v Speaker 2>set and put in place there and their prices have

0:33:37.900 --> 0:33:40.950
<v Speaker 2>not gone up. It is because the government or the

0:33:40.950 --> 0:33:42.100
<v Speaker 2>regulator has

0:33:42.520 --> 0:33:47.709
<v Speaker 2>given out free allowances, free credits to certain industries or

0:33:47.710 --> 0:33:51.550
<v Speaker 2>sectors who are participating in that market because their political,

0:33:51.830 --> 0:33:57.910
<v Speaker 2>because the voter bank, if if they didn't get those allowances,

0:33:57.920 --> 0:34:00.680
<v Speaker 2>the price or the carbon impact of that industry would

0:34:00.680 --> 0:34:04.680
<v Speaker 2>be so tremendous that the political parties bringing it on

0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:08.830
<v Speaker 2>to be out the next voting session. Right, So the

0:34:08.840 --> 0:34:13.339
<v Speaker 2>allowance is one of the problems, secondly, you also have

0:34:13.340 --> 0:34:15.540
<v Speaker 2>a lot of these allowances being allowed to be carried

0:34:15.540 --> 0:34:17.650
<v Speaker 2>forward for much longer than they should have.

0:34:17.660 --> 0:34:20.520
<v Speaker 2>So they kept the prices down. And that was another problem.

0:34:20.530 --> 0:34:22.830
<v Speaker 2>And then there was a little bit of, let's say,

0:34:22.840 --> 0:34:26.730
<v Speaker 2>voluntary carbon offsets. And again, I think what you were

0:34:26.730 --> 0:34:30.570
<v Speaker 2>referring to Tamar was that the E. U. E. T. S.

0:34:30.580 --> 0:34:32.710
<v Speaker 2>And one of the one of the reasons people blame

0:34:32.719 --> 0:34:35.640
<v Speaker 2>for its initial failure was there there was a significant

0:34:35.640 --> 0:34:38.470
<v Speaker 2>amount of carbon offsets that were being exported from china

0:34:38.469 --> 0:34:41.940
<v Speaker 2>into the EU. And and that was a problem that

0:34:41.940 --> 0:34:43.460
<v Speaker 2>is being rectified. And

0:34:43.480 --> 0:34:46.290
<v Speaker 2>that's why you are finding that the EU after 20

0:34:46.290 --> 0:34:49.790
<v Speaker 2>years of version three or four has finally got its E. U. E. T.

0:34:49.790 --> 0:34:52.580
<v Speaker 2>S kind of stable and they've got their own reserve

0:34:52.580 --> 0:34:56.410
<v Speaker 2>management system that is excluded all these offsets. So there

0:34:56.410 --> 0:34:59.840
<v Speaker 2>are three reasons why prices have not been stable and

0:34:59.840 --> 0:35:04.660
<v Speaker 2>not been good enough incentives for polluters to feel uncomfortable

0:35:04.670 --> 0:35:07.259
<v Speaker 2>because they've been able to get away either through free

0:35:07.260 --> 0:35:08.870
<v Speaker 2>allowances or prices staying.

0:35:09.469 --> 0:35:13.330
<v Speaker 2>The other problem with these markets, carbon markets or I

0:35:13.330 --> 0:35:17.680
<v Speaker 2>should say challenge uh structural challenges that the money that

0:35:17.680 --> 0:35:20.600
<v Speaker 2>the government's generate from these, right? Because every time the

0:35:20.600 --> 0:35:24.200
<v Speaker 2>government issues some of these credits for people, they supposed

0:35:24.200 --> 0:35:24.759
<v Speaker 2>to get

0:35:25.310 --> 0:35:30.650
<v Speaker 2>money that can be deployed in climate action. Right, uh europe,

0:35:30.650 --> 0:35:34.819
<v Speaker 2>for example, had $14 billion worth of credits issued in

0:35:34.820 --> 0:35:35.660
<v Speaker 2>the last round

0:35:36.210 --> 0:35:40.110
<v Speaker 2>that money doesn't and has not been fairly deployed uh

0:35:40.120 --> 0:35:45.029
<v Speaker 2>into pure climate action. Right? Even the allocation of these

0:35:45.040 --> 0:35:48.340
<v Speaker 2>monies in europe from the E. U. E. T. S. System.

0:35:48.350 --> 0:35:50.489
<v Speaker 2>If you look at the breakdown of the percentages that

0:35:50.489 --> 0:35:54.250
<v Speaker 2>went to countries within the EU that actually had no

0:35:54.250 --> 0:35:57.710
<v Speaker 2>climate ambitions versus those that were actually deploying climate ambitions.

0:35:57.719 --> 0:36:00.840
<v Speaker 2>It was disproportionate again, political

0:36:00.850 --> 0:36:05.589
<v Speaker 2>structures of Eu, same way in California, how the money

0:36:05.590 --> 0:36:10.120
<v Speaker 2>gets sort of what they call green pork, pork barrelling

0:36:10.130 --> 0:36:13.150
<v Speaker 2>is happening at the moment. So a lot of the

0:36:13.150 --> 0:36:17.790
<v Speaker 2>deployment is just out of whack from a revenue from

0:36:17.790 --> 0:36:21.180
<v Speaker 2>a revenue allocation perspective. So they're some of the challenges,

0:36:21.180 --> 0:36:24.730
<v Speaker 2>inherent challenges that you can find that in my view

0:36:24.730 --> 0:36:25.480
<v Speaker 2>of sort of

0:36:25.860 --> 0:36:29.430
<v Speaker 2>keeping carbon markets from delivering what you and I would

0:36:29.430 --> 0:36:34.319
<v Speaker 2>otherwise expect and and they're not going away, sadly, the

0:36:34.330 --> 0:36:37.330
<v Speaker 2>last reason why this doesn't work is that when you

0:36:37.330 --> 0:36:42.210
<v Speaker 2>put four or 56 sectors in to be covered by one,

0:36:42.210 --> 0:36:45.160
<v Speaker 2>let's say carbon market, let's say, you put transport, you

0:36:45.160 --> 0:36:47.219
<v Speaker 2>put uh

0:36:47.239 --> 0:36:52.469
<v Speaker 2>metals and mining, you poured aviation, you put industrial production,

0:36:52.480 --> 0:36:57.330
<v Speaker 2>all of these under a carbon electricity generation, all under

0:36:57.340 --> 0:37:00.210
<v Speaker 2>let's say one carbon market and say, okay, all you

0:37:00.210 --> 0:37:03.810
<v Speaker 2>for emitters in Country X, you're gonna be participating in

0:37:03.810 --> 0:37:07.410
<v Speaker 2>this carbon market, buy sell credits and your cap and

0:37:07.410 --> 0:37:11.840
<v Speaker 2>trade schemes. What ends up happening is that the sector

0:37:11.840 --> 0:37:17.180
<v Speaker 2>with the lowest carbon ambition becomes, if it's big enough

0:37:17.730 --> 0:37:20.710
<v Speaker 2>and can vote out the next government, they bring the

0:37:20.710 --> 0:37:24.010
<v Speaker 2>whole structure of the carbon market down. And that is again,

0:37:24.010 --> 0:37:28.719
<v Speaker 2>where the politics of carbon and its impact just make

0:37:28.719 --> 0:37:31.460
<v Speaker 2>for carbon markets to become less effective.

0:37:31.739 --> 0:37:36.810
<v Speaker 2>And that's why again, my humble opinion is that carbon

0:37:36.810 --> 0:37:38.900
<v Speaker 2>markets will be there, they will take longer than we

0:37:38.900 --> 0:37:42.220
<v Speaker 2>think to come up with a fair stable carbon price,

0:37:42.230 --> 0:37:45.350
<v Speaker 2>we should not completely discount them, they let them operate.

0:37:45.360 --> 0:37:49.000
<v Speaker 2>But in the in the meantime industrial policy and carbon

0:37:49.000 --> 0:37:54.950
<v Speaker 2>policies from governments targeted uh focused uh so that they

0:37:54.950 --> 0:37:57.890
<v Speaker 2>can deliver their NDC need to come into place. We

0:37:57.890 --> 0:37:59.989
<v Speaker 2>can't just wait for carbon markets to sort themselves

0:37:59.989 --> 0:38:00.290
<v Speaker 1>out

0:38:00.810 --> 0:38:05.080
<v Speaker 1>very very well taken. I think the you know, similar

0:38:05.090 --> 0:38:07.739
<v Speaker 1>sort of, you know, one step forward, one step backward

0:38:07.739 --> 0:38:11.150
<v Speaker 1>has been also characteristic of china's emissions trading system. They're

0:38:11.150 --> 0:38:13.719
<v Speaker 1>also trying to get it right, but it's pretty hard

0:38:13.719 --> 0:38:15.160
<v Speaker 1>to get it right at the first go. It seems

0:38:15.160 --> 0:38:15.540
<v Speaker 1>like

0:38:15.739 --> 0:38:19.850
<v Speaker 1>when I look at this inflation reduction act that the U. S.

0:38:19.860 --> 0:38:24.469
<v Speaker 1>Has now put in action and I compared with large

0:38:24.480 --> 0:38:27.810
<v Speaker 1>legislation of the past, whether it's the U. S. Or elsewhere,

0:38:27.820 --> 0:38:29.980
<v Speaker 1>I see a switching tactic and I want to hear

0:38:29.980 --> 0:38:31.800
<v Speaker 1>your view on this issue. It seems to me that

0:38:31.800 --> 0:38:34.750
<v Speaker 1>now for the reason that you mentioned that if you

0:38:34.760 --> 0:38:38.200
<v Speaker 1>do something very draconian, you're vulnerable in the next election cycle.

0:38:38.210 --> 0:38:41.770
<v Speaker 1>So the thinking behind the latest package out of the U. S.

0:38:41.770 --> 0:38:44.720
<v Speaker 1>Seems to be more carrot than six,

0:38:45.200 --> 0:38:49.060
<v Speaker 1>I give you incentives and tax credit to embrace climate

0:38:49.060 --> 0:38:52.340
<v Speaker 1>action as opposed to I penalize you for being a

0:38:52.340 --> 0:38:56.200
<v Speaker 1>large immature uh Do you think this is a student

0:38:56.200 --> 0:38:58.700
<v Speaker 1>has a greater chance of success in the previous regimes,

0:38:58.700 --> 0:39:01.530
<v Speaker 1>which seem to be more about, I'll tax you, penalize

0:39:01.530 --> 0:39:02.850
<v Speaker 1>you output quotas on you.

0:39:02.860 --> 0:39:07.700
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so this is in the carbon policy, climate policy world,

0:39:07.700 --> 0:39:10.430
<v Speaker 2>there is no doubt a debate around this, that is

0:39:10.440 --> 0:39:13.900
<v Speaker 2>carrots better than sticks, right? Uh,

0:39:14.739 --> 0:39:17.230
<v Speaker 2>and, and you know, for everything I would say, there'll

0:39:17.230 --> 0:39:20.379
<v Speaker 2>be many people will say I'm wrong and they're right

0:39:20.380 --> 0:39:23.560
<v Speaker 2>on this. So take it for what it's worth from me. Uh,

0:39:23.570 --> 0:39:24.839
<v Speaker 2>carbon sticks have not

0:39:24.840 --> 0:39:25.580
<v Speaker 1>worked,

0:39:25.590 --> 0:39:29.819
<v Speaker 2>sorry, penalties have not worked, and they've not worked because

0:39:29.820 --> 0:39:31.750
<v Speaker 2>people have gotten away with it and then they've gotten

0:39:31.750 --> 0:39:34.750
<v Speaker 2>away with it for various reasons. Uh,

0:39:35.370 --> 0:39:38.200
<v Speaker 2>and again, I don't need to go into company country

0:39:38.200 --> 0:39:40.440
<v Speaker 2>regional reasons for them, but they haven't gone away from

0:39:40.450 --> 0:39:46.650
<v Speaker 2>carbon taxes or carbon rebates car, sorry, car

0:39:47.350 --> 0:39:51.300
<v Speaker 2>tax rebates because of carbon reduction. You know, that seems

0:39:51.300 --> 0:39:56.940
<v Speaker 2>to have been, have had a much better uh, and focused, uh,

0:39:56.950 --> 0:40:02.050
<v Speaker 2>result from my reading and therefore I think deploying that

0:40:02.060 --> 0:40:05.410
<v Speaker 2>rather than having to penalize people, but then also let

0:40:05.410 --> 0:40:08.790
<v Speaker 2>them have out through, let's say going and buying carbon

0:40:08.790 --> 0:40:11.540
<v Speaker 2>offsets from here there and everywhere, which people have been

0:40:11.540 --> 0:40:14.589
<v Speaker 2>doing that's one way to sort of sort of neutralize

0:40:14.590 --> 0:40:15.280
<v Speaker 2>your penalties

0:40:15.300 --> 0:40:19.109
<v Speaker 2>is going by. Again, one of my fears is that

0:40:19.120 --> 0:40:23.210
<v Speaker 2>if you keep on pushing the penalties, it incentivizes people

0:40:23.210 --> 0:40:25.230
<v Speaker 2>to go and find solutions to get out of it

0:40:25.230 --> 0:40:29.650
<v Speaker 2>and the voluntary carbon market, if left unchecked could easily

0:40:29.650 --> 0:40:35.340
<v Speaker 2>provide that out, You know, because regulators, regulators, but voluntary, uh,

0:40:35.350 --> 0:40:40.370
<v Speaker 2>and finance the finance sector is very good at securitizing things. So,

0:40:40.380 --> 0:40:43.169
<v Speaker 2>you know, give finance folks, you know,

0:40:43.250 --> 0:40:47.840
<v Speaker 2>opportunities, securitize the carbon offset and sell it to someone

0:40:47.840 --> 0:40:52.339
<v Speaker 2>who otherwise would be penalized, You're, you're playing into that space,

0:40:52.340 --> 0:40:56.090
<v Speaker 2>which I think can lead us to a fake transition

0:40:56.090 --> 0:41:00.880
<v Speaker 2>as opposed to transition. So I think having actually, incentives

0:41:00.880 --> 0:41:04.750
<v Speaker 2>and carrots is a much better approach then if you

0:41:04.750 --> 0:41:07.800
<v Speaker 2>just keep on penalizing, it's gonna be, it's gonna work

0:41:07.800 --> 0:41:10.230
<v Speaker 2>both ways. And some of the best policies are where

0:41:10.230 --> 0:41:11.130
<v Speaker 2>you do

0:41:11.210 --> 0:41:14.520
<v Speaker 2>say to people to industries that if you do x, y, z,

0:41:14.530 --> 0:41:17.690
<v Speaker 2>you will get priority when you're bidding or when you're

0:41:17.690 --> 0:41:21.900
<v Speaker 2>tendering in government projects and all the rest and those

0:41:21.900 --> 0:41:24.260
<v Speaker 2>folks who are not, by the way, you'll be excluded.

0:41:24.270 --> 0:41:26.710
<v Speaker 2>That's a penalty, Right? And that's a penalty where they

0:41:26.710 --> 0:41:28.470
<v Speaker 2>don't have to go and cheat too much for them

0:41:28.469 --> 0:41:30.319
<v Speaker 2>to sort of step up. They need to step up.

0:41:30.330 --> 0:41:33.490
<v Speaker 2>So there are ways to penalize people other than just throwing,

0:41:33.500 --> 0:41:39.160
<v Speaker 2>you know, penalties, taxes, sorry, uh, taxes and penalties on them.

0:41:39.790 --> 0:41:40.180
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:41:40.180 --> 0:41:43.820
<v Speaker 1>I think, Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think the tobacco

0:41:43.820 --> 0:41:48.000
<v Speaker 1>industry is a great cautionary tale about the limits of

0:41:48.010 --> 0:41:52.530
<v Speaker 1>penalties and taxes that can, you know, achieve the desired

0:41:52.530 --> 0:41:55.650
<v Speaker 1>goal versus, you know, maybe mass education and incentives and

0:41:55.650 --> 0:42:00.420
<v Speaker 1>so on. Um, so, okay, uh, beyond this issue of

0:42:00.430 --> 0:42:03.750
<v Speaker 1>the market failure and regulatory capture

0:42:04.200 --> 0:42:08.380
<v Speaker 1>and the carrot stick strategy, is there any major risk

0:42:08.380 --> 0:42:10.830
<v Speaker 1>in the area of climate investing that we haven't touched

0:42:10.840 --> 0:42:11.460
<v Speaker 1>on yet?

0:42:11.680 --> 0:42:16.460
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, climate investing is, again, as we've said, is,

0:42:16.469 --> 0:42:18.370
<v Speaker 2>is early days, so we're gonna see more and more

0:42:18.370 --> 0:42:21.860
<v Speaker 2>risks emerge as we go through. I think the very,

0:42:21.870 --> 0:42:26.110
<v Speaker 2>the first risk as climate investors do, we have enough time.

0:42:26.120 --> 0:42:29.080
<v Speaker 2>I think time is a big issue. Have, have we

0:42:29.080 --> 0:42:32.810
<v Speaker 2>left it too late? Right. And that is a discussion

0:42:32.820 --> 0:42:35.040
<v Speaker 2>to be had on a different sort of

0:42:35.200 --> 0:42:39.180
<v Speaker 2>podcast with much more well informed people on whether or

0:42:39.180 --> 0:42:42.490
<v Speaker 2>not we have left it too late because as I said,

0:42:42.500 --> 0:42:45.890
<v Speaker 2>climate investing is about risk return and impact. Will we

0:42:45.890 --> 0:42:48.770
<v Speaker 2>be able to deliver the impact that we're investing for

0:42:48.780 --> 0:42:49.870
<v Speaker 2>fast enough

0:42:50.200 --> 0:42:54.450
<v Speaker 2>is a big risk that anyone going into this space.

0:42:54.460 --> 0:42:56.359
<v Speaker 2>Will they come out of this in five years, 10

0:42:56.360 --> 0:43:00.020
<v Speaker 2>years time and say, but the impact happened, but it

0:43:00.020 --> 0:43:02.820
<v Speaker 2>was too late. So that's, that's a risk. And I

0:43:02.820 --> 0:43:07.060
<v Speaker 2>think that will take its time. Uh, the second risk

0:43:07.060 --> 0:43:09.480
<v Speaker 2>I think in climate investing. Okay, and this is not

0:43:09.480 --> 0:43:13.070
<v Speaker 2>a climate change mitigation adaptation that companies are doing this

0:43:13.070 --> 0:43:14.950
<v Speaker 2>is for investors, uh,

0:43:15.469 --> 0:43:21.450
<v Speaker 2>is the funds management industry or the providers of uh,

0:43:21.460 --> 0:43:27.210
<v Speaker 2>investment vehicles. My peers uh, that the whole greenwashing concept

0:43:27.210 --> 0:43:32.660
<v Speaker 2>and idea that you brought up providing genuine, uh, climate

0:43:32.660 --> 0:43:38.489
<v Speaker 2>investing vehicles, uh, with impact that is going to, that

0:43:38.489 --> 0:43:40.819
<v Speaker 2>is a big risk as well, that we don't do that,

0:43:40.830 --> 0:43:42.820
<v Speaker 2>we don't do it well enough, and people

0:43:43.140 --> 0:43:47.299
<v Speaker 2>kind of lose interest, or, as you rightly said earlier on,

0:43:47.310 --> 0:43:50.989
<v Speaker 2>you know, people start questioning it and therefore give up

0:43:50.989 --> 0:43:55.110
<v Speaker 2>on it. And I think the, the, the genuine climate

0:43:55.120 --> 0:44:01.550
<v Speaker 2>products investment vehicles with no greenwashing, giving confidence to investors

0:44:01.560 --> 0:44:04.760
<v Speaker 2>is the second biggest risk. And, and I'm glad that

0:44:04.760 --> 0:44:08.360
<v Speaker 2>that's being tackled on by various fronts, one with data

0:44:08.360 --> 0:44:10.480
<v Speaker 2>coming in much more so that me and my team

0:44:10.489 --> 0:44:12.379
<v Speaker 2>can come up and deliver,

0:44:12.550 --> 0:44:17.170
<v Speaker 2>uh, you know, impact numeric, but also the regulators making

0:44:17.170 --> 0:44:20.870
<v Speaker 2>sure that myself and my peers are kept held accountable

0:44:20.870 --> 0:44:25.030
<v Speaker 2>to what claims were making. So that's the second risk.

0:44:25.040 --> 0:44:27.530
<v Speaker 2>I think the third risk and that we touched upon

0:44:27.530 --> 0:44:32.580
<v Speaker 2>briefly was this, you know, for me, is again, the

0:44:32.580 --> 0:44:39.129
<v Speaker 2>ability of financial markets to securitize intangibles, you know,

0:44:39.160 --> 0:44:43.910
<v Speaker 2>especially when you have something that is hard to monitor,

0:44:43.910 --> 0:44:46.690
<v Speaker 2>as it is, which is carbon, whether carbon is being

0:44:46.700 --> 0:44:49.779
<v Speaker 2>admitted or not admitted, it's a sign that it's a science,

0:44:49.780 --> 0:44:53.690
<v Speaker 2>but it's not, it cannot sort of prove it in

0:44:53.690 --> 0:44:56.830
<v Speaker 2>some ways, uh, if something cannot be sort of, let's

0:44:56.830 --> 0:45:00.930
<v Speaker 2>say monitored, uh, that easily, and only a few people

0:45:00.930 --> 0:45:04.560
<v Speaker 2>are measuring it, and no one's regulating it, but someone's

0:45:04.570 --> 0:45:05.759
<v Speaker 2>securitizing it,

0:45:06.140 --> 0:45:11.360
<v Speaker 2>you're leading to potentially a challenge for climate investing and

0:45:11.360 --> 0:45:15.950
<v Speaker 2>the financial securitization of carbon. And again, we go back

0:45:15.950 --> 0:45:18.760
<v Speaker 2>to the whole climate investing is, what is the price

0:45:18.760 --> 0:45:21.520
<v Speaker 2>of carbon? How do we incorporate it into our systems

0:45:21.530 --> 0:45:26.970
<v Speaker 2>if we financially securitized carbon in a way, which is

0:45:26.969 --> 0:45:29.810
<v Speaker 2>done with the view that this is for just transition,

0:45:30.180 --> 0:45:33.880
<v Speaker 2>but it ends up being a fake transition because one

0:45:33.880 --> 0:45:38.280
<v Speaker 2>we didn't deliver on those, you know, carbon reduction targets

0:45:38.280 --> 0:45:41.530
<v Speaker 2>that this was supposed to do. And also we took

0:45:41.530 --> 0:45:44.980
<v Speaker 2>many people down the, you know, the wrong path, show

0:45:44.980 --> 0:45:50.129
<v Speaker 2>them ways to sort of claim offsets when they weren't there.

0:45:50.140 --> 0:45:50.600
<v Speaker 2>That is

0:45:50.610 --> 0:45:54.110
<v Speaker 2>something that can be damaging not only to the investing,

0:45:54.110 --> 0:45:58.440
<v Speaker 2>climate investing, uh, universe, but also to the, you know,

0:45:58.450 --> 0:46:01.320
<v Speaker 2>let's say to the to those people who for whom

0:46:01.320 --> 0:46:05.080
<v Speaker 2>we're trying to get just transition right, whether that be

0:46:05.080 --> 0:46:07.710
<v Speaker 2>the indigenous people who are living off the land and

0:46:07.710 --> 0:46:11.040
<v Speaker 2>and trying to sort of benefit from that,

0:46:11.050 --> 0:46:16.049
<v Speaker 2>and also support with legitimate carbon offsets. If we, for example,

0:46:16.050 --> 0:46:18.800
<v Speaker 2>tell them that the price of carbon offset is X, Y, Z.

0:46:18.800 --> 0:46:21.180
<v Speaker 2>And then it turns out that five years later, they've

0:46:21.180 --> 0:46:23.810
<v Speaker 2>given up all their other activities and focused on this,

0:46:23.820 --> 0:46:26.540
<v Speaker 2>only to find out that that those offsets are not

0:46:26.540 --> 0:46:30.280
<v Speaker 2>being internationally accepted and that the price is not 100 bucks,

0:46:30.280 --> 0:46:31.480
<v Speaker 2>it's like not even a buck

0:46:31.840 --> 0:46:34.660
<v Speaker 2>that's going to become not a just transition for them,

0:46:34.670 --> 0:46:36.969
<v Speaker 2>it's gonna be a costly transition for them. So I

0:46:36.969 --> 0:46:39.980
<v Speaker 2>think that's my third and last sort of risk is

0:46:39.980 --> 0:46:42.830
<v Speaker 2>that how do we do, how do we make sure

0:46:42.840 --> 0:46:45.469
<v Speaker 2>that in, you know, as we move towards a just

0:46:45.469 --> 0:46:47.589
<v Speaker 2>transition and create these carbon

0:46:47.719 --> 0:46:50.739
<v Speaker 2>markets, especially the voluntary ones that we do it in

0:46:50.739 --> 0:46:54.490
<v Speaker 2>a way that does not need to affect transition for ourselves.

0:46:54.489 --> 0:46:58.900
<v Speaker 2>And even for, let's say the people who really we

0:46:58.900 --> 0:47:02.550
<v Speaker 2>should be benefiting in the process. So that's the risk

0:47:02.550 --> 0:47:03.590
<v Speaker 2>to climate investing

0:47:04.140 --> 0:47:09.100
<v Speaker 1>right now. There are sobering ones, no doubt about it. Um,

0:47:09.110 --> 0:47:13.339
<v Speaker 1>now your mandate is global, you look at sectors and

0:47:13.340 --> 0:47:15.960
<v Speaker 1>companies all over the world, but you're based in Asia,

0:47:15.960 --> 0:47:19.900
<v Speaker 1>your investor base I think is largely asian. And you

0:47:19.900 --> 0:47:23.050
<v Speaker 1>do look at a lot of asian companies. Um, so

0:47:23.060 --> 0:47:26.189
<v Speaker 1>give us a sense of the state of the war

0:47:26.190 --> 0:47:27.899
<v Speaker 1>against climate change in Asia.

0:47:28.100 --> 0:47:33.560
<v Speaker 2>Mm. So if you look at climate change in Asia again, uh,

0:47:33.570 --> 0:47:37.279
<v Speaker 2>the approach we've taken at porcupine is there's there's a two,

0:47:37.290 --> 0:47:40.830
<v Speaker 2>it's a two pronged approach, a bottom up approach of

0:47:40.830 --> 0:47:42.520
<v Speaker 2>looking at companies and that the other one is a

0:47:42.520 --> 0:47:45.140
<v Speaker 2>top down approach. If I start with the top down approach,

0:47:45.140 --> 0:47:47.080
<v Speaker 2>as I mentioned earlier on, as we, as we were

0:47:47.080 --> 0:47:54.890
<v Speaker 2>discussing that asian countries, climate ambitions becoming better and better, uh,

0:47:54.900 --> 0:47:59.160
<v Speaker 2>Incrementally with most companies having in cop 26 come out

0:47:59.160 --> 0:48:05.610
<v Speaker 2>with incrementally better targets related to climate and also separately

0:48:05.610 --> 0:48:08.450
<v Speaker 2>on some environmental issues as well, but climate definitely they've

0:48:08.450 --> 0:48:12.370
<v Speaker 2>gotten better isn't good enough. Many people would argue not

0:48:12.370 --> 0:48:14.250
<v Speaker 2>good enough. But to me I'm one of those, I

0:48:14.250 --> 0:48:18.120
<v Speaker 2>take the incremental change as a positive start, the absolute

0:48:18.130 --> 0:48:21.690
<v Speaker 2>will will catch up hopefully over time. But

0:48:21.980 --> 0:48:24.770
<v Speaker 2>when we look at it from the policy perspective to

0:48:24.770 --> 0:48:28.230
<v Speaker 2>support those NBCS, then there's a massive gap as I said,

0:48:28.239 --> 0:48:30.820
<v Speaker 2>you know, in what they're trying to achieve under the N. D. C.

0:48:30.820 --> 0:48:33.489
<v Speaker 2>S and what their policies are in place. So I

0:48:33.489 --> 0:48:39.470
<v Speaker 2>think ASIA's impact in terms of helping the global climate

0:48:39.469 --> 0:48:43.050
<v Speaker 2>change challenge is very much from a top down perspective

0:48:43.050 --> 0:48:45.940
<v Speaker 2>going to be driven by whether or not the countries

0:48:45.940 --> 0:48:46.509
<v Speaker 2>whether be India

0:48:46.520 --> 0:48:51.890
<v Speaker 2>china Australia and Singapore. Everyone in in Asia are actually

0:48:51.890 --> 0:48:57.200
<v Speaker 2>delivering the policies to support uh their specific NDC s.

0:48:57.210 --> 0:48:59.880
<v Speaker 2>So that's one way that one needs to map out

0:48:59.890 --> 0:49:02.700
<v Speaker 2>ASia to see what's happening at the margin. Are they

0:49:02.700 --> 0:49:06.339
<v Speaker 2>doing the right thing? Just looking at targets by themselves?

0:49:06.350 --> 0:49:09.250
<v Speaker 2>Maybe not good enough. You've got to follow the follow

0:49:09.250 --> 0:49:11.060
<v Speaker 2>follow down to the policies

0:49:11.500 --> 0:49:13.690
<v Speaker 2>if you look at it from a bottom up perspective.

0:49:13.700 --> 0:49:17.770
<v Speaker 2>Uh my team and I over the last uh you know,

0:49:17.770 --> 0:49:20.660
<v Speaker 2>a couple of years since we last we last spoke

0:49:20.670 --> 0:49:25.300
<v Speaker 2>we've spent time creating our own climate and environmental frameworks

0:49:25.300 --> 0:49:27.509
<v Speaker 2>and one of them is our climate mapping framework and

0:49:27.510 --> 0:49:31.090
<v Speaker 2>we've also got a database of about 450 asian companies

0:49:31.100 --> 0:49:34.399
<v Speaker 2>that either have have a C. D. P. Or S. B. T. I.

0:49:34.400 --> 0:49:35.750
<v Speaker 2>Or transition pathway in it

0:49:35.840 --> 0:49:41.089
<v Speaker 2>based data that we have focused on and with the

0:49:41.090 --> 0:49:44.990
<v Speaker 2>aim that we want to see companies and their industries

0:49:45.000 --> 0:49:49.330
<v Speaker 2>and what is their actual climate footprint or environmental footprint?

0:49:49.340 --> 0:49:51.360
<v Speaker 2>Is that high or low? And then we want to

0:49:51.360 --> 0:49:55.730
<v Speaker 2>map it against. Are these companies actually making an effort

0:49:55.739 --> 0:49:59.030
<v Speaker 2>to reduce the climate or the carbon footprint or the

0:49:59.030 --> 0:50:05.569
<v Speaker 2>environmental footprint? And when we overlay the company country policy,

0:50:05.950 --> 0:50:11.190
<v Speaker 2>let's say initiatives onto our mapping of the company and

0:50:11.190 --> 0:50:16.219
<v Speaker 2>sector plans, it gives us some very interesting sort of

0:50:16.230 --> 0:50:19.700
<v Speaker 2>picture of on the ground what is happening from a

0:50:19.700 --> 0:50:23.549
<v Speaker 2>company and an investor's perspective. There are and and you know,

0:50:23.550 --> 0:50:26.290
<v Speaker 2>some of this is going to be a bit of

0:50:26.290 --> 0:50:30.130
<v Speaker 2>a going to be sort of hashed out in our

0:50:30.140 --> 0:50:32.080
<v Speaker 2>we have a asian environmental

0:50:32.090 --> 0:50:36.779
<v Speaker 2>Action fund planned in the coming months, many of the

0:50:36.780 --> 0:50:40.320
<v Speaker 2>companies in there will be a result of this analysis

0:50:40.320 --> 0:50:43.390
<v Speaker 2>that we're doing to show what kind of environmental impact

0:50:43.400 --> 0:50:45.410
<v Speaker 2>that they can make. An Asian companies can have a

0:50:45.410 --> 0:50:47.920
<v Speaker 2>massive environmental impact. I'll just give you an example of

0:50:47.920 --> 0:50:52.300
<v Speaker 2>one asian company, one company in Japan won't name the

0:50:52.300 --> 0:50:58.219
<v Speaker 2>company but its scope three carbon emission is 435 million tons,

0:50:58.440 --> 0:50:59.010
<v Speaker 1>four

0:50:59.010 --> 0:51:01.839
<v Speaker 2>135 million tons. Right? And by the way the second

0:51:01.840 --> 0:51:06.620
<v Speaker 2>and that's scope three there are we have other asian

0:51:06.620 --> 0:51:09.410
<v Speaker 2>companies who scope one and two

0:51:09.790 --> 0:51:13.680
<v Speaker 2>Are about 250 million tons. Right? So we're talking massive

0:51:13.680 --> 0:51:16.160
<v Speaker 2>and to put it in perspective the whole of Japan's

0:51:16.160 --> 0:51:19.529
<v Speaker 2>carbon emissions is about one billion tons. So 435 million

0:51:19.530 --> 0:51:22.859
<v Speaker 2>tons from one company, that's this code three. So if

0:51:22.860 --> 0:51:26.540
<v Speaker 2>you can get companies like that on your radar but

0:51:26.550 --> 0:51:31.040
<v Speaker 2>also with very strong, let's say environmental actions in place

0:51:31.050 --> 0:51:33.250
<v Speaker 2>as an investor that impact

0:51:33.530 --> 0:51:37.840
<v Speaker 2>becomes easier to achieve because the size and scale in

0:51:37.840 --> 0:51:41.989
<v Speaker 2>Asia of the carbon footprint or the climate footprint is

0:51:41.989 --> 0:51:45.750
<v Speaker 2>massive compared to some of the developed market companies that

0:51:45.760 --> 0:51:47.840
<v Speaker 2>most people are used to investing in. So I think

0:51:47.840 --> 0:51:52.140
<v Speaker 2>ASia presents some great opportunities to help the fine on

0:51:52.140 --> 0:51:56.140
<v Speaker 2>climate change but how you go about doing it, you've

0:51:56.140 --> 0:51:59.140
<v Speaker 2>got to be very, very careful and sensible about it,

0:52:00.239 --> 0:52:03.610
<v Speaker 1>wow. Yeah, so those numbers are kind of in a

0:52:03.610 --> 0:52:06.430
<v Speaker 1>way exciting because then you sort of understood the point

0:52:06.430 --> 0:52:07.560
<v Speaker 1>that how much

0:52:07.570 --> 0:52:08.490
<v Speaker 2>potential

0:52:08.489 --> 0:52:13.230
<v Speaker 1>AsIA has in contributing to the global aim towards, you know,

0:52:13.230 --> 0:52:14.129
<v Speaker 1>net zero.

0:52:14.430 --> 0:52:21.029
<v Speaker 1>Um, what about financial returns back on episode 16 when you,

0:52:21.040 --> 0:52:23.760
<v Speaker 1>you have visits that the companies you select for your

0:52:23.760 --> 0:52:27.440
<v Speaker 1>investment criteria will prosper over companies that are not prepared

0:52:27.450 --> 0:52:30.630
<v Speaker 1>for climate change because of the regulation and the taxes

0:52:30.630 --> 0:52:31.320
<v Speaker 1>that were coming?

0:52:31.590 --> 0:52:33.420
<v Speaker 1>Well the last two years as we have discussed, we

0:52:33.420 --> 0:52:36.690
<v Speaker 1>have seen numerous announcements on carbon taxes and border adjustment

0:52:36.690 --> 0:52:41.400
<v Speaker 1>tax emission targets, etcetera. So the thesis that companies that

0:52:41.400 --> 0:52:44.950
<v Speaker 1>are ahead of the game will prosper more and provide

0:52:44.960 --> 0:52:47.160
<v Speaker 1>better returns. Has it panned out?

0:52:47.480 --> 0:52:51.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's a good question. So in the same uh,

0:52:51.330 --> 0:52:54.460
<v Speaker 2>call back in 2020, 1 thing I did say is

0:52:54.460 --> 0:53:00.450
<v Speaker 2>that for companies that incorporating human social environmental capital into

0:53:00.450 --> 0:53:05.419
<v Speaker 2>their business models right ahead of their peers, the financial

0:53:05.430 --> 0:53:09.550
<v Speaker 2>results or even the impact results should be a 3-5

0:53:09.550 --> 0:53:13.259
<v Speaker 2>year game. And so from that perspective, I think for

0:53:13.270 --> 0:53:16.150
<v Speaker 2>many of our companies, the jury is still out, both

0:53:16.670 --> 0:53:19.480
<v Speaker 2>actually on the impact side were convinced that they've been

0:53:19.480 --> 0:53:22.860
<v Speaker 2>delivering on their human social environmental capital progress on the

0:53:22.860 --> 0:53:25.710
<v Speaker 2>financial side, the jury's still out for for many of

0:53:25.710 --> 0:53:27.830
<v Speaker 2>the companies in our portfolio.

0:53:28.310 --> 0:53:31.040
<v Speaker 2>If I was to break down our portfolio companies into

0:53:31.040 --> 0:53:35.790
<v Speaker 2>the e part, the part there is definitely our companies

0:53:35.800 --> 0:53:39.399
<v Speaker 2>who have climate or environment as a tailwind in their

0:53:39.400 --> 0:53:44.259
<v Speaker 2>business models. Examples being in the space of legislature, back systems,

0:53:44.270 --> 0:53:47.739
<v Speaker 2>the heating, ventilation, air conditioning, uh,

0:53:48.170 --> 0:53:52.870
<v Speaker 2>uh, sector or whether it be the electric electric electrification industry.

0:53:52.880 --> 0:53:55.270
<v Speaker 2>They definitely in the last two or three years since

0:53:55.270 --> 0:53:59.090
<v Speaker 2>we've spoken have delivered better than their own past performance

0:53:59.100 --> 0:54:00.650
<v Speaker 2>and also against their peers.

0:54:00.820 --> 0:54:05.590
<v Speaker 2>Uh, it's interesting says even in this, even in this,

0:54:05.600 --> 0:54:08.380
<v Speaker 2>let's say downturn that we've had the global recession fears

0:54:08.380 --> 0:54:10.390
<v Speaker 2>that have been created in the last let's say six

0:54:10.390 --> 0:54:14.320
<v Speaker 2>months time. The cyclicality and the nature of these companies

0:54:14.320 --> 0:54:16.420
<v Speaker 2>being part of the global cycle has come through, they

0:54:16.420 --> 0:54:19.860
<v Speaker 2>have they have suffered as well. But the there when

0:54:19.860 --> 0:54:23.370
<v Speaker 2>you listen to them and speak to them, they're there,

0:54:23.370 --> 0:54:28.980
<v Speaker 2>you could say, uh, outlook is better than most. Don't

0:54:28.980 --> 0:54:30.410
<v Speaker 2>have the tail winds of

0:54:30.690 --> 0:54:33.890
<v Speaker 2>environment behind them. So it gives us conviction and strength

0:54:33.900 --> 0:54:37.910
<v Speaker 2>in our view that having tail winds of climate solutions

0:54:37.910 --> 0:54:41.160
<v Speaker 2>and environmental is a good tailwind to have. So, I

0:54:41.160 --> 0:54:45.800
<v Speaker 2>think the financial return from that perspective, we are confident of.

0:54:45.810 --> 0:54:48.140
<v Speaker 2>One of the things that again I would like to

0:54:48.140 --> 0:54:51.360
<v Speaker 2>mention is that when we started this conversation is that

0:54:51.380 --> 0:54:55.400
<v Speaker 2>anyone who's coming coming into climate investing right, they're already

0:54:55.400 --> 0:54:59.290
<v Speaker 2>coming in with with this new mindset that they're looking

0:54:59.290 --> 0:55:00.270
<v Speaker 2>for impact

0:55:00.570 --> 0:55:05.100
<v Speaker 2>and they're looking for risk adjusted returns with impact. So

0:55:05.110 --> 0:55:07.930
<v Speaker 2>the impact part is very much going to be the

0:55:07.930 --> 0:55:12.160
<v Speaker 2>driver of anyone coming into this investment space. If you

0:55:12.160 --> 0:55:16.190
<v Speaker 2>look at us, us and our portfolio that we're planning,

0:55:16.200 --> 0:55:20.320
<v Speaker 2>it is going to be based on an absolute return

0:55:20.330 --> 0:55:24.109
<v Speaker 2>approach where we're going to share with our investors that

0:55:24.110 --> 0:55:26.850
<v Speaker 2>there's a certain percentage return, uh,

0:55:26.870 --> 0:55:30.330
<v Speaker 2>we aim to deliver, but more importantly, it's going to

0:55:30.330 --> 0:55:33.160
<v Speaker 2>be returns with impact. So the impact part of that,

0:55:33.170 --> 0:55:35.760
<v Speaker 2>we're going to have to really identify what that impact

0:55:35.760 --> 0:55:38.360
<v Speaker 2>is going to be in terms of carbon emission reductions

0:55:38.360 --> 0:55:42.560
<v Speaker 2>intensity reductions in terms of peak carbon, especially if we're

0:55:42.560 --> 0:55:45.690
<v Speaker 2>looking at climate but we're looking also at other environmental issues.

0:55:45.700 --> 0:55:49.370
<v Speaker 2>So I think the definition of returns especially for climate

0:55:49.390 --> 0:55:52.969
<v Speaker 2>investors is going to be and is already the conversation

0:55:52.969 --> 0:55:56.069
<v Speaker 2>is a very different conversation to when we last spoke,

0:55:56.080 --> 0:55:59.210
<v Speaker 2>where a lot of people looked at E. S. G.

0:55:59.210 --> 0:56:03.340
<v Speaker 2>Investing and still compared it to some index returns, bench

0:56:03.340 --> 0:56:07.489
<v Speaker 2>microtones here. The conversation on climate investing starts with show

0:56:07.489 --> 0:56:10.570
<v Speaker 2>me the climate impact first and then tell me to

0:56:10.570 --> 0:56:11.910
<v Speaker 2>get that climate impact.

0:56:12.190 --> 0:56:17.580
<v Speaker 2>What is the financial let's say makeup or or expected

0:56:17.580 --> 0:56:19.560
<v Speaker 2>return that you think you can get out of it?

0:56:19.570 --> 0:56:22.920
<v Speaker 2>So it's it's for for climate investing.

0:56:23.150 --> 0:56:25.550
<v Speaker 2>I think people are going into it should be and

0:56:25.560 --> 0:56:28.280
<v Speaker 2>are focused on the climate impact. And then what kind

0:56:28.280 --> 0:56:31.220
<v Speaker 2>of financial returns one could expect from that universe of

0:56:31.219 --> 0:56:33.660
<v Speaker 2>companies because let's face it, that universe of companies is

0:56:33.660 --> 0:56:36.089
<v Speaker 2>going to be a very different universe of companies then

0:56:36.090 --> 0:56:41.320
<v Speaker 2>you broader index that most people compare their financial returns to.

0:56:41.330 --> 0:56:46.310
<v Speaker 2>So it's it's a conversation that we're having with our

0:56:46.320 --> 0:56:52.040
<v Speaker 2>parliaments on the expected returns. But but first glance of

0:56:52.230 --> 0:56:57.650
<v Speaker 2>Our sort of model portfolio a 5-7% per annum return

0:56:57.660 --> 0:57:02.040
<v Speaker 2>should be deliverable in an Asia pack context.

0:57:02.620 --> 0:57:05.500
<v Speaker 1>Also, I'd like to think that as more and more

0:57:05.500 --> 0:57:10.940
<v Speaker 1>countries and companies come under the the umbrella of focusing

0:57:10.940 --> 0:57:15.480
<v Speaker 1>on that zero that the investment base will become broader

0:57:15.480 --> 0:57:18.260
<v Speaker 1>and broader. At one point you might have to start

0:57:18.260 --> 0:57:20.460
<v Speaker 1>benchmark indices because every company will be an E S

0:57:20.460 --> 0:57:21.300
<v Speaker 1>G company

0:57:21.460 --> 0:57:24.000
<v Speaker 2>I look forward to that day,

0:57:24.420 --> 0:57:29.600
<v Speaker 1>probably not two years from now. It's been great having

0:57:29.600 --> 0:57:31.570
<v Speaker 1>you back on the show. So I really, really want

0:57:31.570 --> 0:57:34.160
<v Speaker 1>to thank you very much for your time and insights.

0:57:34.170 --> 0:57:37.420
<v Speaker 2>No thank you so much and I do look forward

0:57:37.420 --> 0:57:40.460
<v Speaker 2>to copy time 1 50 when you and I will

0:57:40.460 --> 0:57:44.190
<v Speaker 2>be having another chat and you know,

0:57:44.430 --> 0:57:49.090
<v Speaker 2>talking about something new, something different, an evolution of E S.

0:57:49.090 --> 0:57:50.710
<v Speaker 2>G to something new

0:57:50.720 --> 0:57:53.330
<v Speaker 1>and something very, very positive for the earth and for

0:57:53.330 --> 0:57:56.870
<v Speaker 1>our portfolios. I want to thank you and thank our

0:57:56.870 --> 0:57:59.740
<v Speaker 1>listeners as well. Kobe time was produced by ken Del

0:57:59.740 --> 0:58:03.730
<v Speaker 1>Bridge from Spice Studios, Gezi Sharma and violently provided additional

0:58:03.730 --> 0:58:05.000
<v Speaker 1>production assistance.

0:58:05.270 --> 0:58:08.170
<v Speaker 1>This podcast is for information only and does not represent

0:58:08.180 --> 0:58:11.720
<v Speaker 1>any trade recommendations. All 83 episodes of copy time are

0:58:11.720 --> 0:58:15.820
<v Speaker 1>available on youtube and on all major podcast platforms including apple,

0:58:15.820 --> 0:58:19.670
<v Speaker 1>google and Spotify. As for our research publications, webinars and

0:58:19.670 --> 0:58:22.610
<v Speaker 1>live streams. You can find them all by googling DBS

0:58:22.610 --> 0:58:25.090
<v Speaker 1>Research Library. Have a great day