1 00:00:05,929 --> 00:00:08,770 Speaker 1: Hello, this is Kobe Time, a podcast series on markets 2 00:00:08,770 --> 00:00:12,010 Speaker 1: and economies from DBS Group Research. I'm Tamurbek, chief economist, 3 00:00:12,130 --> 00:00:16,329 Speaker 1: welcoming you to our 170th episode. Today, we'll take a 4 00:00:16,329 --> 00:00:19,530 Speaker 1: deep dive on US foreign policy with a focus on 5 00:00:19,530 --> 00:00:22,770 Speaker 1: the Americas, but also much more so on the Middle East. 6 00:00:23,069 --> 00:00:25,290 Speaker 1: And I can't think of a better person to do that. 7 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:29,940 Speaker 1: Bernard Hackel is professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University. 8 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 1: This is his 3rd time on KobeT. He was an 9 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:37,439 Speaker 1: early supporter of this endeavor, appearing on episode 7 back 10 00:00:37,439 --> 00:00:41,639 Speaker 1: in April 2020, and then again on episode 99 in 11 00:00:41,639 --> 00:00:45,759 Speaker 1: April 2023. Bernard Hackel, welcome back to Kobe time. 12 00:00:46,389 --> 00:00:48,979 Speaker 2: Thank you, Timur. It's a real pleasure and I'm a 13 00:00:48,979 --> 00:00:51,979 Speaker 2: huge fan. I, I listen to, to Copy time almost all, 14 00:00:52,750 --> 00:00:55,909 Speaker 2: you know, all the time, um, here in Princeton, so 15 00:00:55,909 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 2: it's lovely to be back. 16 00:00:57,389 --> 00:01:00,180 Speaker 1: And, and I, I really, really appreciate your support, Bernie, 17 00:01:00,250 --> 00:01:02,650 Speaker 1: and the fact that on this very snowy, cold day, 18 00:01:02,830 --> 00:01:04,580 Speaker 1: on a Monday morning, you'll set aside time for us. 19 00:01:04,629 --> 00:01:05,790 Speaker 1: I really appreciate that. 20 00:01:06,209 --> 00:01:09,220 Speaker 1: Um, Bernie, and I will call you Bernie if I 21 00:01:09,220 --> 00:01:14,339 Speaker 1: may to say Professor Hagel, um, the Donner doctrine. What 22 00:01:14,339 --> 00:01:17,879 Speaker 1: are the precepts and how do they differ from past 23 00:01:17,879 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: US administration's policies? 24 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,529 Speaker 2: OK, so, um, you know, ah, the, the, the reference 25 00:01:23,529 --> 00:01:26,089 Speaker 2: is really to the Monroe Doctrine, which is a doctrine 26 00:01:26,089 --> 00:01:30,430 Speaker 2: from 1823 that the US President Monroe at the time had, 27 00:01:30,529 --> 00:01:34,050 Speaker 2: had outlined and had become a policy. Essentially the policy 28 00:01:34,050 --> 00:01:37,330 Speaker 2: back then in the 19th century was that the Western 29 00:01:37,330 --> 00:01:41,919 Speaker 2: Hemisphere was, ah, off limits to European imperial powers. This 30 00:01:41,919 --> 00:01:44,899 Speaker 2: was sort of an American sphere of influence and the 31 00:01:44,900 --> 00:01:47,930 Speaker 2: US would not tolerate the British or anyone else coming 32 00:01:47,930 --> 00:01:49,430 Speaker 2: into South America, etc. 33 00:01:49,989 --> 00:01:53,069 Speaker 2: The Donnroe Doctrine is sort of an is a revival 34 00:01:53,069 --> 00:01:56,139 Speaker 2: of that uh and a kind of strengthening of that doctrine, 35 00:01:56,550 --> 00:02:00,750 Speaker 2: which had more or less lapsed, um, and uh the 36 00:02:00,750 --> 00:02:04,230 Speaker 2: first mention really of the Monroe Doctrine again came with 37 00:02:04,230 --> 00:02:06,669 Speaker 2: John Bolton, I think in 2019, who used to be 38 00:02:06,669 --> 00:02:10,570 Speaker 2: the national security adviser of President Trump, and they broke 39 00:02:10,788 --> 00:02:13,669 Speaker 2: with each other and Trump hates him, but he seems 40 00:02:13,669 --> 00:02:15,388 Speaker 2: to have taken on board, uh. 41 00:02:15,758 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 2: This hawkish, uh, view of, uh, Bolton Trump has taken 42 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:26,039 Speaker 2: on this and essentially the, the, uh, you know, President 43 00:02:26,038 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 2: Trump has this, uh, imperial vision for the United States 44 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,399 Speaker 2: that goes back to President McKinley in the in the 45 00:02:32,399 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 2: late 19th century. Um, a lot of people talk about 46 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:40,199 Speaker 2: it and try to, uh, intellectualize and conceptualize it as 47 00:02:40,199 --> 00:02:41,710 Speaker 2: some sort of very sophisticated. 48 00:02:42,419 --> 00:02:46,369 Speaker 2: Ah, worldview that President Trump has, um, that, you know, 49 00:02:46,419 --> 00:02:48,619 Speaker 2: he thinks of the world in terms of the old 50 00:02:48,619 --> 00:02:51,460 Speaker 2: imperial spheres of influence and the US will have the 51 00:02:51,460 --> 00:02:54,740 Speaker 2: Western Hemisphere and then somehow the Russians can have, you know, 52 00:02:54,940 --> 00:02:58,339 Speaker 2: parts of Central and Eastern Europe and, and the Chinese 53 00:02:58,339 --> 00:03:01,139 Speaker 2: can have, you know, their sphere of influence in, in, 54 00:03:01,250 --> 00:03:03,419 Speaker 2: in the, in the, in the Pacific or in the, 55 00:03:03,490 --> 00:03:05,970 Speaker 2: in the China Sea. I don't think that's true. I, 56 00:03:06,020 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 2: I don't think that Trump actually 57 00:03:07,740 --> 00:03:12,190 Speaker 2: Um, has such a sophisticated view of, of, of global 58 00:03:12,190 --> 00:03:16,589 Speaker 2: politics and is trying to kind of reimagine global politics 59 00:03:16,589 --> 00:03:20,839 Speaker 2: according to a new set of principles. I think he's very, ah, opportunistic. 60 00:03:20,910 --> 00:03:24,550 Speaker 2: I think he's very transactional. Ah, he, uh, sees a 61 00:03:24,550 --> 00:03:27,389 Speaker 2: very powerful military. He also sees that the Chinese and 62 00:03:27,389 --> 00:03:28,270 Speaker 2: the Iranians. 63 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,089 Speaker 2: Uh, and to some extent the Russians were involved in 64 00:03:31,089 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 2: certain countries in, in Latin and South America, and he 65 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,529 Speaker 2: wants them out. He initially had this strong view about 66 00:03:37,529 --> 00:03:42,369 Speaker 2: the Panama Canal being, you know, taking ownership back. Uh, 67 00:03:42,610 --> 00:03:47,369 Speaker 2: we saw that he took out, uh, an arrest, basically, uh, 68 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:52,270 Speaker 2: you know, kidnapped, uh, President Maduro from, uh, uh, from Venezuela, 69 00:03:52,570 --> 00:03:55,130 Speaker 2: but didn't change the regime itself, you know, he was 70 00:03:55,130 --> 00:03:57,649 Speaker 2: trying to come to some sort of accommodation with the regime. 71 00:03:58,070 --> 00:04:00,990 Speaker 2: So it's, it's a kind of new, it's a kind 72 00:04:00,990 --> 00:04:05,220 Speaker 2: of new way of doing things without full regime change, 73 00:04:05,470 --> 00:04:07,589 Speaker 2: and this has implications for the Middle East as well, 74 00:04:07,669 --> 00:04:12,380 Speaker 2: I think, when it comes to Iran, um, and it's 75 00:04:12,380 --> 00:04:15,710 Speaker 2: this view that America has, you know, is it wants 76 00:04:15,710 --> 00:04:16,630 Speaker 2: to dominate. 77 00:04:17,070 --> 00:04:20,630 Speaker 2: Uh, the world, and it'll begin with the Western Hemisphere, 78 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:24,428 Speaker 2: not just in South America, also the pitch to, uh, and, 79 00:04:24,559 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 2: and the claim that Greenland belongs to the United States 80 00:04:27,519 --> 00:04:30,940 Speaker 2: is also part of this kind of this worldview. Um, 81 00:04:31,678 --> 00:04:35,260 Speaker 2: it's driven also by his deep desire to go down 82 00:04:35,260 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 2: as one of the greatest presidents in, in the US, 83 00:04:37,678 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 2: and if he acquires a territory like Greenland, he'll be 84 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,239 Speaker 2: the first president who has expanded, you know, US. 85 00:04:43,750 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 2: Uh, US territory, you know, since, uh, the early 20th century, 86 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:51,079 Speaker 2: and so that's the, that's what's behind it, I think 87 00:04:51,079 --> 00:04:55,959 Speaker 2: it's not some sort of grand theory, uh, about, about 88 00:04:55,959 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 2: the world, um, and about how the world should work. 89 00:04:58,799 --> 00:05:04,738 Speaker 2: It's just a bully style approach to politics, um, and it, 90 00:05:04,750 --> 00:05:07,119 Speaker 2: and it has implications for China, by the way. I, 91 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:07,700 Speaker 2: I don't think. 92 00:05:08,140 --> 00:05:10,739 Speaker 2: The fact that he is interested in the Western Hemisphere 93 00:05:10,738 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 2: means that he's going to allow China to, as it were, 94 00:05:14,309 --> 00:05:16,859 Speaker 2: dominate its sphere of influence. No. 95 00:05:17,488 --> 00:05:19,540 Speaker 2: It doesn't have that implication at all. 96 00:05:20,089 --> 00:05:24,070 Speaker 1: So Bernie, just from a cost benefit perspective, I guess 97 00:05:24,070 --> 00:05:27,769 Speaker 1: it wasn't that costly, the intervention in Venezuela, and there 98 00:05:27,769 --> 00:05:29,809 Speaker 1: are some potential benefits in the sense that those who 99 00:05:29,809 --> 00:05:33,549 Speaker 1: are close to Trump's circle own oil assets, could get 100 00:05:33,549 --> 00:05:37,649 Speaker 1: lots more refining contracts, and so on. But do you 101 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:41,988 Speaker 1: see this first big salvo of, you know, exercising utter 102 00:05:42,369 --> 00:05:46,190 Speaker 1: total domination in the Western Hemisphere is a, you know, 103 00:05:47,380 --> 00:05:49,988 Speaker 1: Success already, or would you say that there it's fraught 104 00:05:49,988 --> 00:05:55,380 Speaker 1: with danger? I'm thinking can Venezuela really be as pliable 105 00:05:55,380 --> 00:05:58,029 Speaker 1: as Trump thinks that it'll do its bidding as far 106 00:05:58,029 --> 00:06:00,869 Speaker 1: as drugs and oil, but on everything else they can 107 00:06:00,869 --> 00:06:03,549 Speaker 1: do whatever they want, and Trump doesn't really care. Could 108 00:06:03,549 --> 00:06:04,190 Speaker 1: it really work 109 00:06:04,190 --> 00:06:04,309 Speaker 1: out? 110 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,390 Speaker 2: I mean, look, I think it's a, it's a success 111 00:06:07,390 --> 00:06:10,010 Speaker 2: for Trump in terms of headlines, in terms of making 112 00:06:10,010 --> 00:06:11,309 Speaker 2: a fancy headline. 113 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,919 Speaker 2: Trump is stuck in the 1970s because he grew, he 114 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 2: became politically conscious in the 1970s when you had the 115 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:22,399 Speaker 2: two massive oil, um, spikes in 1973 because of the 116 00:06:22,399 --> 00:06:27,238 Speaker 2: Arab oil embargo and then the Iran revolution in 1979. Um, he, 117 00:06:27,359 --> 00:06:29,779 Speaker 2: and he saw that the richest people on the planet 118 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,339 Speaker 2: and the biggest transfer of wealth that took place. 119 00:06:32,779 --> 00:06:36,029 Speaker 2: In his lifetime took place in the 70s with the oil, the, 120 00:06:36,109 --> 00:06:38,829 Speaker 2: the rise in oil prices. So he's a very kind 121 00:06:38,829 --> 00:06:42,269 Speaker 2: of oil centered, oil obsessed. He thinks that that's where 122 00:06:42,269 --> 00:06:46,390 Speaker 2: wealth is, um, and he thinks that capturing resources in 123 00:06:46,390 --> 00:06:49,549 Speaker 2: that way, uh, especially oil, will make all the difference 124 00:06:49,549 --> 00:06:54,339 Speaker 2: to the United States. It's a bizarre, frankly, worldview because oil, 125 00:06:54,350 --> 00:06:57,019 Speaker 2: as we know, is becoming less and less important. It's 126 00:06:57,019 --> 00:06:59,070 Speaker 2: still very important, of course, but in the case of 127 00:06:59,070 --> 00:07:00,470 Speaker 2: Venezuela specifically. 128 00:07:00,928 --> 00:07:05,329 Speaker 2: Uh, even though they have the largest reserves in the world, 129 00:07:05,660 --> 00:07:07,899 Speaker 2: you know, it would take many billions of dollars and many, 130 00:07:08,019 --> 00:07:11,239 Speaker 2: many years to actually be able to develop those, uh, 131 00:07:11,260 --> 00:07:14,970 Speaker 2: rehabilitate and then develop those oil fields, and even then 132 00:07:14,970 --> 00:07:17,820 Speaker 2: you may get, you know, 3 million barrels, 4 million 133 00:07:17,820 --> 00:07:20,899 Speaker 2: barrels at most. It's not a Saudi Arabia in terms 134 00:07:20,899 --> 00:07:23,220 Speaker 2: because it's much more difficult oil to produce, and it's 135 00:07:23,220 --> 00:07:26,220 Speaker 2: a very expensive oil to produce compared to Saudi Arabia 136 00:07:26,220 --> 00:07:30,100 Speaker 2: in terms of the recovery, the, the, the cost curve, so. 137 00:07:30,500 --> 00:07:33,470 Speaker 2: You know, the, the premise of the, of the action 138 00:07:33,470 --> 00:07:36,670 Speaker 2: in Venezuela is, is, uh, is based on this idea 139 00:07:36,670 --> 00:07:38,829 Speaker 2: that oil will start flowing and it'll be very quick 140 00:07:38,829 --> 00:07:41,790 Speaker 2: and American companies will benefit. Actually, he invited all these 141 00:07:41,790 --> 00:07:44,029 Speaker 2: American companies to go back into Venezuela. They didn't want 142 00:07:44,029 --> 00:07:47,290 Speaker 2: to go, you know, and, uh, you know, he'll get some, 143 00:07:47,470 --> 00:07:50,910 Speaker 2: you know, wildcatters or, you know, uh, cowboys in the 144 00:07:50,910 --> 00:07:53,429 Speaker 2: oil industry who may be willing to take a risk, 145 00:07:53,510 --> 00:07:55,940 Speaker 2: but it's not going to happen. I mean, Venezuela is 146 00:07:55,940 --> 00:07:58,869 Speaker 2: just not going to become a great oil producer, not 147 00:07:58,869 --> 00:07:59,768 Speaker 2: for a long time. 148 00:08:00,369 --> 00:08:04,660 Speaker 2: Uh, and so, uh, I think that, you know, substantively 149 00:08:04,660 --> 00:08:09,299 Speaker 2: it's a failure in terms of media, in terms of showmanship, 150 00:08:09,369 --> 00:08:12,119 Speaker 2: which is what he's Trump is good at. Yeah, it's 151 00:08:12,119 --> 00:08:14,859 Speaker 2: personally probably a big, you know, he can market it 152 00:08:14,859 --> 00:08:18,380 Speaker 2: as a success, especially since now he's very, very anxious 153 00:08:18,380 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 2: about the midterm elections next November, and he wants to see. 154 00:08:22,369 --> 00:08:24,799 Speaker 2: You know, he wants to be able to present himself 155 00:08:24,799 --> 00:08:28,709 Speaker 2: as someone who has delivered for the American public, especially 156 00:08:28,890 --> 00:08:31,250 Speaker 2: in terms of low oil prices. For him, you know, 157 00:08:31,329 --> 00:08:34,489 Speaker 2: low oil prices equal winning in elections. 158 00:08:35,380 --> 00:08:38,099 Speaker 1: Right, right. And as we know in real terms, oil 159 00:08:38,099 --> 00:08:40,809 Speaker 1: prices are already pretty low, and the real risks to 160 00:08:40,809 --> 00:08:43,530 Speaker 1: inflation in the US comes from a wide variety of factors, 161 00:08:43,799 --> 00:08:48,739 Speaker 1: not at all energy related. Bernie, but energy will or 162 00:08:48,739 --> 00:08:52,859 Speaker 1: oil flow to Cuba will come to a standstill from Venezuela, 163 00:08:52,900 --> 00:08:56,059 Speaker 1: and now he's squeezing Mexico to stop providing the lifeline. 164 00:08:56,340 --> 00:08:59,380 Speaker 1: So it seems to me that the ambition to create 165 00:08:59,380 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 1: like a cascade of regime changes or government failures is substantial. 166 00:09:05,090 --> 00:09:09,098 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think that Cuba is the weakest link, 167 00:09:09,179 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 2: and he certainly, I mean, the one thing about Trump 168 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,500 Speaker 2: that I think, you know, one has to hand it 169 00:09:15,500 --> 00:09:19,340 Speaker 2: to him is that he really has a keen eye on, 170 00:09:19,849 --> 00:09:22,500 Speaker 2: on sort of weakness, and he's, if he sees a 171 00:09:22,500 --> 00:09:26,659 Speaker 2: weak regime that can be pushed and bullied at minimal 172 00:09:26,659 --> 00:09:28,459 Speaker 2: cost to the United States, he will do it. 173 00:09:28,849 --> 00:09:31,140 Speaker 2: Um, and you can see this, for instance, even when 174 00:09:31,140 --> 00:09:34,179 Speaker 2: in the attack against Iran, it was the Israelis last 175 00:09:34,179 --> 00:09:37,739 Speaker 2: June after 12 days of having basically annihilated the Iranian 176 00:09:37,739 --> 00:09:41,380 Speaker 2: air defense system that allowed then Trump to come and 177 00:09:41,380 --> 00:09:45,739 Speaker 2: bomb with no risk to American airplanes. And so he, 178 00:09:45,820 --> 00:09:48,820 Speaker 2: you know, he, he, uh, he, he sees kind of 179 00:09:48,820 --> 00:09:50,699 Speaker 2: like a predator, you know, he'll see kind of the 180 00:09:50,700 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 2: weak member of the herd and then go after it. 181 00:09:53,940 --> 00:09:56,419 Speaker 2: And so yes, countries like Cuba are definitely. 182 00:09:57,179 --> 00:09:59,099 Speaker 2: Uh, going to be under pressure and he'll put exert 183 00:09:59,099 --> 00:10:02,500 Speaker 2: a tremendous amount of pressure to try to not necessarily 184 00:10:02,500 --> 00:10:07,179 Speaker 2: change the regime, but to get the regime to alter its, uh, ideology, 185 00:10:07,219 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 2: it's politics, its orientation, um, and he's perfectly happy with that. 186 00:10:12,869 --> 00:10:15,479 Speaker 1: And is there some sort of a, you know, Marco 187 00:10:15,479 --> 00:10:19,429 Speaker 1: Rubio 2028 election angle here too that somehow impressed the 188 00:10:19,429 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 1: Hispanic voter base by giving Cuba back to the Cuban 189 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: Americans or something like 190 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:24,030 Speaker 1: that? 191 00:10:24,239 --> 00:10:26,039 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think he has given sort of 192 00:10:26,039 --> 00:10:29,150 Speaker 2: Latin America and South America the policy to Marco Rubio, 193 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,479 Speaker 2: which is, you know, what Marco cares about a lot, 194 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,710 Speaker 2: but the thing is, in terms of who the candidate 195 00:10:34,710 --> 00:10:38,479 Speaker 2: will be in 2028, I, I think that's, uh, still 196 00:10:38,479 --> 00:10:39,580 Speaker 2: very difficult to. 197 00:10:40,030 --> 00:10:44,429 Speaker 2: Uh, determine. In fact, you know, there's very serious competition between, uh, 198 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:46,728 Speaker 2: Marco Rubio on the one hand and JD Vance, the 199 00:10:46,729 --> 00:10:49,479 Speaker 2: vice president, on the other, and I suspect also that 200 00:10:49,479 --> 00:10:54,150 Speaker 2: the president's son, uh, Don Junior. also has ambitions, and 201 00:10:54,159 --> 00:10:59,199 Speaker 2: Trump will kind of make all these guys around him 202 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:01,619 Speaker 2: jockey and and fight with each other. 203 00:11:02,010 --> 00:11:05,119 Speaker 2: And I suspect that he is ultimately a kind of 204 00:11:05,460 --> 00:11:08,619 Speaker 2: very monarchical in his, in his view of politics and 205 00:11:08,619 --> 00:11:12,020 Speaker 2: probably will want the succession to go to his son. 206 00:11:12,099 --> 00:11:14,260 Speaker 2: I mean this is speculation on my part, but my 207 00:11:14,260 --> 00:11:17,580 Speaker 2: sense is that, you know, he admires monarchies and he 208 00:11:17,580 --> 00:11:21,359 Speaker 2: wants to think of himself as a monarch. So in monarchies, 209 00:11:21,380 --> 00:11:22,820 Speaker 2: it's the sons who inherit it. 210 00:11:23,739 --> 00:11:26,968 Speaker 1: Fascinating. OK, we, to our listeners, you heard it here first. We'll, 211 00:11:27,010 --> 00:11:29,719 Speaker 1: we'll keep an eye on that prediction, uh, Bernie, in the, 212 00:11:29,770 --> 00:11:33,718 Speaker 1: in the coming years. Uh, but final point on the Americas, uh, 213 00:11:33,890 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 1: when you and I were discussing, uh, setting up this 214 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,718 Speaker 1: podcast a week and a half ago, uh, Greenland was 215 00:11:39,890 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: at the front and center of all the headlines. At Davos, 216 00:11:43,609 --> 00:11:46,130 Speaker 1: we had a bit of a climbdown. Uh, what do 217 00:11:46,130 --> 00:11:48,369 Speaker 1: you make of this whole Greenland saga? 218 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:50,919 Speaker 2: So 219 00:11:50,919 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 2: there are several narratives about it. On the one hand, uh, 220 00:11:54,159 --> 00:11:56,150 Speaker 2: some people say it was a major distraction and a 221 00:11:56,150 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 2: deliberate one, orchestrated by Trump and his people in order 222 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:06,140 Speaker 2: to actually focus on, uh, developments in Iran and in Ukraine. 223 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 2: And so he got all the Europeans, you know, and, uh, and, 224 00:12:09,239 --> 00:12:12,159 Speaker 2: and others, uh, all, you know, in their knickers in 225 00:12:12,159 --> 00:12:14,659 Speaker 2: a twist about Greenland, when in fact he didn't really, 226 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:16,340 Speaker 2: you know, he wasn't going to push that. 227 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 2: Uh, while the, uh, aircraft carrier strike group was moving 228 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,119 Speaker 2: towards Iran and, uh, Witkoff was and Jared Kushner were 229 00:12:24,119 --> 00:12:26,919 Speaker 2: negotiating with the Russians on a deal, a final deal 230 00:12:26,919 --> 00:12:30,989 Speaker 2: with Ukraine, where apparently there's only one outstanding issue remaining, 231 00:12:31,039 --> 00:12:34,109 Speaker 2: which is that of land, um, how much land the 232 00:12:34,109 --> 00:12:39,189 Speaker 2: Russians will, will acquire. Um, my sense with, with, uh, 233 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:43,599 Speaker 2: Greenland is that, you know, he is, um, serious about 234 00:12:43,599 --> 00:12:45,539 Speaker 2: wanting it, um, but 235 00:12:46,309 --> 00:12:50,469 Speaker 2: At minimal cost, you know, he just wants the Europeans 236 00:12:50,469 --> 00:12:52,709 Speaker 2: to hand it over to him on a silver platter. 237 00:12:52,989 --> 00:12:56,010 Speaker 2: And when he realized that in fact if he reimposed tariffs, 238 00:12:56,030 --> 00:13:00,590 Speaker 2: it would be costly economically, uh, if he moved in militarily, 239 00:13:00,630 --> 00:13:02,909 Speaker 2: it would be costly in other ways, he wants it 240 00:13:02,909 --> 00:13:04,669 Speaker 2: at no cost. He wants it just like he wants 241 00:13:04,669 --> 00:13:06,770 Speaker 2: it as a freebie, and that's just not going to happen. 242 00:13:07,609 --> 00:13:11,590 Speaker 2: So, so I imagine ultimately the agreement will be based 243 00:13:11,590 --> 00:13:14,369 Speaker 2: on what already exists, which is that the US has 244 00:13:14,369 --> 00:13:18,830 Speaker 2: full military access to the to the to that territory 245 00:13:19,049 --> 00:13:22,169 Speaker 2: and will continue to defend it against, you know, alleged 246 00:13:22,169 --> 00:13:26,250 Speaker 2: or supposed future threats from either China or Russia. 247 00:13:27,239 --> 00:13:30,919 Speaker 1: And in terms of this being an existential development as 248 00:13:30,919 --> 00:13:33,799 Speaker 1: far as NATO was concerned, I guess you don't think 249 00:13:33,799 --> 00:13:34,839 Speaker 1: it was that big a deal. 250 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:37,919 Speaker 2: No, I don't think so. I don't think he will 251 00:13:37,919 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 2: break NATO, uh, Trump, that is, um, I, I, I 252 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 2: don't think so. I think he's just squeezing people and 253 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,340 Speaker 2: he's a showman, you know, he wants, you know, news. 254 00:13:47,659 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 2: I mean, the thing about him is that he wants 255 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,700 Speaker 2: us to talk about him all the time, every day, 256 00:13:51,919 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 2: and I am very kind of resistant to that because 257 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:57,689 Speaker 2: I find that he takes up too much of my 258 00:13:58,119 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 2: Uh, you know, too much space, and in fact you're 259 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 2: playing into his, into his game and his hand by, 260 00:14:03,630 --> 00:14:05,909 Speaker 2: by paying attention to him so much when most of 261 00:14:05,909 --> 00:14:07,859 Speaker 2: what he says is irrelevant ultimately. 262 00:14:09,169 --> 00:14:12,210 Speaker 1: Yes, Bernie, unfortunately, we will be playing into his hands 263 00:14:12,210 --> 00:14:14,770 Speaker 1: for the next half an hour because I want to 264 00:14:14,770 --> 00:14:18,119 Speaker 1: hear from you a bit about the Middle East. Uh, 265 00:14:18,250 --> 00:14:21,169 Speaker 1: you were just talking about movement of military assets from 266 00:14:21,169 --> 00:14:23,049 Speaker 1: my neck of the woods in South China Sea all 267 00:14:23,049 --> 00:14:26,330 Speaker 1: the way to the Straits of Hormuz and around there. Uh, 268 00:14:26,650 --> 00:14:27,710 Speaker 1: what is going on? 269 00:14:30,250 --> 00:14:31,010 Speaker 2: So as I said 270 00:14:31,010 --> 00:14:34,849 Speaker 2: earlier, you know, he, Trump, you know, sees the weakest 271 00:14:34,849 --> 00:14:38,150 Speaker 2: link in what is called like this axis that, uh, 272 00:14:38,239 --> 00:14:41,250 Speaker 2: that is an axis of, you know, resistance or an 273 00:14:41,250 --> 00:14:43,570 Speaker 2: axis of opposition to the United States, you know, it 274 00:14:43,570 --> 00:14:47,250 Speaker 2: includes China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and, you know, he wants 275 00:14:47,250 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 2: to pick off, uh, the weaker ones if he can, 276 00:14:51,130 --> 00:14:53,809 Speaker 2: especially if it doesn't involve, um. 277 00:14:54,469 --> 00:14:57,950 Speaker 2: Major military activity. So I don't think the US is 278 00:14:57,950 --> 00:15:00,989 Speaker 2: going to be involved in a major war with Iran. 279 00:15:01,349 --> 00:15:05,359 Speaker 2: I suspect that the Israelis want another war with Iran, um, 280 00:15:05,630 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 2: and the US assets are probably there either as support 281 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,599 Speaker 2: or or collaboration to collaborate with the Israelis should they, 282 00:15:12,710 --> 00:15:15,469 Speaker 2: should they attack. Um, and this is the great fear 283 00:15:15,469 --> 00:15:19,469 Speaker 2: that the Arab Gulf states have about, uh, about Iran 284 00:15:19,469 --> 00:15:21,289 Speaker 2: is that the Israelis haven't finished. 285 00:15:21,750 --> 00:15:26,039 Speaker 2: Uh, because they do want regime change in, in that country, uh, 286 00:15:26,159 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 2: and they want to also, uh, obliterate the, uh, the 287 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 2: ballistic missile capabilities of, of the country. I, I don't 288 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,789 Speaker 2: think that's easy to do actually. I don't think it's, 289 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:41,390 Speaker 2: you know, there is no easy way to, um, get 290 00:15:41,390 --> 00:15:43,479 Speaker 2: rid of the regime in Iran, and I'll say this 291 00:15:43,479 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 2: for a number of reasons, just if I can talk 292 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 2: about Iran briefly, um. 293 00:15:49,049 --> 00:15:55,609 Speaker 2: First, the Iranian regime has 20% of the population, 25% 294 00:15:55,609 --> 00:15:58,369 Speaker 2: of the population on side, meaning that these are people 295 00:15:58,369 --> 00:16:01,190 Speaker 2: who are willing to fight to preserve the regime because 296 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:02,409 Speaker 2: they benefit from the regime. 297 00:16:03,039 --> 00:16:07,679 Speaker 2: Second, we have not seen any cracks in the security services, 298 00:16:07,719 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 2: the core security, you know, services and institutions of the regime. 299 00:16:11,710 --> 00:16:16,039 Speaker 2: And right now we've just Iranians have been demonstrating beginning 300 00:16:16,039 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 2: in late December and lasting into mid January, and the 301 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 2: regime killed thousands of people of these demonstrators. They're varying 302 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,159 Speaker 2: estimates between 3000 to 4000 to up to 30,000 to 303 00:16:27,159 --> 00:16:28,599 Speaker 2: 40,000 people killed. 304 00:16:28,969 --> 00:16:31,609 Speaker 2: And we've seen no cracks in the regime or the 305 00:16:31,609 --> 00:16:36,469 Speaker 2: regime's capacity to use brute force against its own people, 306 00:16:36,890 --> 00:16:38,690 Speaker 2: and that's a source of strength. It's not a source 307 00:16:38,690 --> 00:16:41,369 Speaker 2: of weakness because it shows you that in fact the 308 00:16:41,369 --> 00:16:46,210 Speaker 2: security services are still, you know, coherent and and and 309 00:16:46,210 --> 00:16:47,250 Speaker 2: solidly together. 310 00:16:48,489 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 2: Uh, I would say the other, the other reason why 311 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 2: the regime is quite resilient in Iran is because the 312 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 2: opposition is completely fragmented. There is no opposition figure, and 313 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,359 Speaker 2: the fact that the Iranian demonstrators who were demonstrating initially 314 00:17:00,359 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 2: for economic reasons, uh, some of them started calling for 315 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:09,030 Speaker 2: the former Shah's son, uh, Reza Pahlavi. The fact that 316 00:17:09,030 --> 00:17:12,438 Speaker 2: they're calling for someone like Reza Pahlavi to return is 317 00:17:12,439 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 2: a sign there is no domestic opposition figure. I mean, 318 00:17:15,719 --> 00:17:18,239 Speaker 2: it's a kind of call of desperation. 319 00:17:18,569 --> 00:17:21,540 Speaker 2: To someone who is who would be impossible, you know, 320 00:17:21,819 --> 00:17:25,619 Speaker 2: is an impossible candidate actually, uh, for leadership in Iran. 321 00:17:25,699 --> 00:17:29,569 Speaker 2: He has no chance ever becoming a leader in Iran. So, so, 322 00:17:29,750 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 2: you know, it's a sign again of the opposition's fragmentation 323 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 2: and weakness. So I, I see this regime, despite all its, uh, 324 00:17:37,660 --> 00:17:43,978 Speaker 2: many failings, economic, ideological, etc. um, as still being quite 325 00:17:43,979 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 2: resilient and no, uh, 326 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:49,689 Speaker 2: Attack by the United States or by Israel through by 327 00:17:49,689 --> 00:17:52,609 Speaker 2: air is going to is going to topple it. Even 328 00:17:52,609 --> 00:17:54,839 Speaker 2: if you remove the Supreme Leader and you kidnap him 329 00:17:54,839 --> 00:17:58,510 Speaker 2: in Maduro style, the regime is still quite tough. 330 00:17:59,250 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 1: Right, actually, that's exactly where I wanted to go to that, uh, 331 00:18:01,930 --> 00:18:04,780 Speaker 1: I remember during that 12 day war, Trump was boasting 332 00:18:04,780 --> 00:18:06,968 Speaker 1: that he knows where Khamenei is, but he's choosing not 333 00:18:06,969 --> 00:18:07,629 Speaker 1: to kill him. 334 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: And my understanding is the Israelis did try to decapitate 335 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,319 Speaker 1: the regime. They just didn't succeed. There was this one 336 00:18:13,319 --> 00:18:16,449 Speaker 1: particular meeting that they bombed, but nobody ended up dying 337 00:18:16,449 --> 00:18:20,880 Speaker 1: in that one. So this tension between Israel and the US, 338 00:18:20,959 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 1: which tend to have divergent objectives in this issue, but 339 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 1: in the past Trump has fallen in line with whatever 340 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 1: Netanyahu has led him toward doing. So do you think 341 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:31,680 Speaker 1: it could be one of those cases where even though 342 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:35,180 Speaker 1: Trump is viscerally against deploying large assets in the Middle East, 343 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: Netanyahu sort of leads him into it. 344 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,599 Speaker 2: Netanyahu can lead Trump into, into a, into a situation 345 00:18:42,599 --> 00:18:45,839 Speaker 2: if Netanyahu's seen as winning. I mean, Trump is not 346 00:18:45,839 --> 00:18:48,959 Speaker 2: going to back a losing horse. If if Netanyahu looks 347 00:18:48,959 --> 00:18:52,670 Speaker 2: like he's going to, uh, win, uh, then Trump wants 348 00:18:52,670 --> 00:18:55,109 Speaker 2: to be on the side of the winner. And so 349 00:18:55,109 --> 00:18:57,958 Speaker 2: it's very important. I, I don't think that Netanyahu can 350 00:18:57,959 --> 00:19:01,199 Speaker 2: drag Trump into a losing, uh, proposition. 351 00:19:01,630 --> 00:19:05,719 Speaker 2: Um, and so that I think that's key for understanding 352 00:19:05,719 --> 00:19:08,719 Speaker 2: Trump's psychology and how Trump behaves. As I said earlier, 353 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 2: he only got involved in the Iran attack at the 354 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,159 Speaker 2: end of the 12 Day War when it was very 355 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,270 Speaker 2: clear that it would be a slam dunk for him. 356 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:17,719 Speaker 2: So he's not going to get involved in a situation 357 00:19:17,719 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 2: where it's not a slam dunk. So the Israelis will 358 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,239 Speaker 2: have to do the heavy lifting, will have to show 359 00:19:21,239 --> 00:19:24,750 Speaker 2: that they, they're winning, and then Trump might get involved, uh, 360 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,109 Speaker 2: you know, as you know, like a coup de grace, 361 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,180 Speaker 2: as the French say, you know, like a, a final blow. 362 00:19:31,550 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: In the case, I'm just pushing this line a little further, Bernie, 363 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: if I may, that Israel is close to really destabilizing 364 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:44,479 Speaker 1: Iran and the regime in Iran is basically seeing, you know, 365 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,479 Speaker 1: it's the last gasp of air left. In that case, 366 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 1: would it flail and start attacking oil assets or otherwise 367 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:54,979 Speaker 1: in the region? I basically have Saudi Arabia in mind. 368 00:19:56,030 --> 00:19:59,349 Speaker 2: Well, that's definitely the Saudi fear and to and, and 369 00:19:59,349 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 2: I think the UAE's fear, certainly the Kuwaiti fear as well, uh, and, 370 00:20:03,739 --> 00:20:06,349 Speaker 2: and that of Qatar, which is that, you know, in 371 00:20:06,349 --> 00:20:09,229 Speaker 2: an existential moment of crisis for the regime, for the 372 00:20:09,229 --> 00:20:12,229 Speaker 2: mullah's regime in Iran, that the regime will try to 373 00:20:12,229 --> 00:20:15,949 Speaker 2: lash out, um, at the global economy, and the only 374 00:20:15,949 --> 00:20:18,369 Speaker 2: way to do that is to attack. 375 00:20:18,719 --> 00:20:23,790 Speaker 2: Um, the Arab states of the Gulf, especially not just oil, 376 00:20:24,250 --> 00:20:26,329 Speaker 2: you know, the classic line is, you know, that they 377 00:20:26,329 --> 00:20:28,409 Speaker 2: would block the Strait of Hormuz and they would prevent 378 00:20:28,410 --> 00:20:31,250 Speaker 2: oil from being shipped and all that. That's really not, 379 00:20:31,329 --> 00:20:35,390 Speaker 2: I think, how Iran would go about, about doing this. 380 00:20:35,729 --> 00:20:38,469 Speaker 2: What it would do is it would attack desalination plants 381 00:20:38,469 --> 00:20:42,689 Speaker 2: and communication systems and electricity generation plants, as well as 382 00:20:42,689 --> 00:20:43,770 Speaker 2: oil installations. 383 00:20:44,099 --> 00:20:46,790 Speaker 2: And that would really cripple these economies because of their 384 00:20:46,790 --> 00:20:50,708 Speaker 2: dependence on electricity and on water desalination in particular. So that, 385 00:20:50,790 --> 00:20:53,629 Speaker 2: that's and and and they have the capacity, the Iranians 386 00:20:53,630 --> 00:20:57,989 Speaker 2: have the capacity through short range missiles and drones to 387 00:20:57,989 --> 00:20:59,890 Speaker 2: inflict a tremendous amount of damage. 388 00:21:00,619 --> 00:21:03,939 Speaker 2: And there are no capabilities for blocking those types of 389 00:21:03,939 --> 00:21:07,780 Speaker 2: weapons systems because they swarm and they're not like the 390 00:21:07,780 --> 00:21:12,060 Speaker 2: weapons that are being used to defend Israel. These are different, 391 00:21:12,540 --> 00:21:15,739 Speaker 2: you know, that threat is much, is different, and, and 392 00:21:15,739 --> 00:21:18,659 Speaker 2: we so far don't have the, those countries don't have 393 00:21:18,660 --> 00:21:22,699 Speaker 2: the capability of defending against them, and the Iranians showed 394 00:21:22,699 --> 00:21:26,300 Speaker 2: this very effectively in September 2019 when they attacked two 395 00:21:26,300 --> 00:21:29,459 Speaker 2: Saudi oil installations and incapacitated the production. 396 00:21:29,839 --> 00:21:35,750 Speaker 2: By about 50% for several weeks, 50% of Saudi oil production. Um, 397 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 2: so yes, the Iranians have this capability. Presumably the move 398 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,660 Speaker 2: of this strike force, American strike force to the Gulf 399 00:21:43,839 --> 00:21:45,839 Speaker 2: is to tell the Iranians, you know, if you, if 400 00:21:45,839 --> 00:21:48,099 Speaker 2: you are attacked by Israel. 401 00:21:48,430 --> 00:21:51,109 Speaker 2: And you think that you can destabilize the global economy, 402 00:21:51,229 --> 00:21:54,670 Speaker 2: we will, you know, obliterate you, as it were. So 403 00:21:54,670 --> 00:21:57,829 Speaker 2: don't go and do what you have threatened to do, 404 00:21:57,939 --> 00:21:59,708 Speaker 2: which the Iranians have done, by the way, with the 405 00:21:59,709 --> 00:22:03,430 Speaker 2: Arab Gulf states, is that they've said we would launch 406 00:22:03,430 --> 00:22:09,969 Speaker 2: attacks openly. They've said this against the against these installations. 407 00:22:10,589 --> 00:22:13,189 Speaker 2: I think that's the, that's where, you know, you have 408 00:22:13,189 --> 00:22:14,209 Speaker 2: a real difference. 409 00:22:14,660 --> 00:22:17,260 Speaker 2: Between Saudi Arabia on the one hand and Israel on 410 00:22:17,260 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 2: the other when it comes to Iran. 411 00:22:19,890 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 2: The other, the other view that is important to keep 412 00:22:22,439 --> 00:22:25,359 Speaker 2: in mind is that from the Saudi perspective, Iran is 413 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,829 Speaker 2: a neighbor and it's not going to go away. And 414 00:22:27,829 --> 00:22:31,310 Speaker 2: if you destabilize the regime to the point where it falls, 415 00:22:31,530 --> 00:22:33,319 Speaker 2: you might end up with a civil war in Iran 416 00:22:33,319 --> 00:22:36,640 Speaker 2: or a splintering of Iran, which creates refugees, which creates 417 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 2: lots of chaos in the region, and that's something that 418 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 2: the Saudis and the Emiratis and Kuwaitis would have to 419 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 2: deal with immediately, whereas the Israelis are fairly distant, as 420 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 2: are the Americans. They won't necessarily have to contend with 421 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 2: that consequence. So. 422 00:22:50,020 --> 00:22:52,979 Speaker 2: You know, the Saudis and the and the Gulf Arabs 423 00:22:52,979 --> 00:22:57,389 Speaker 2: have a long-term view because they are neighbors of the Iranians, whereas, 424 00:22:57,430 --> 00:22:59,750 Speaker 2: you know, the Americans and the Israelis just don't seem 425 00:22:59,750 --> 00:23:01,969 Speaker 2: to care what happens to Iran. 426 00:23:03,530 --> 00:23:07,889 Speaker 1: To what extent are the Qataris or the Emiratis or 427 00:23:07,890 --> 00:23:11,579 Speaker 1: the Saudis capable of sending that message to the White House, 428 00:23:11,589 --> 00:23:14,380 Speaker 1: and to what extent would the White House be amenable 429 00:23:14,380 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 1: toward those fears and concerns? 430 00:23:17,819 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 2: No, I, I think the White House is actually uh 431 00:23:20,819 --> 00:23:24,060 Speaker 2: uh amenable and and actually has, they have received, even 432 00:23:24,060 --> 00:23:25,699 Speaker 2: though the Saudis deny it and so on, but they 433 00:23:25,699 --> 00:23:29,729 Speaker 2: have received these messages over many years, not just recently, uh, that, 434 00:23:29,819 --> 00:23:35,339 Speaker 2: you know, Iran's long term situation matters. Uh, and it's 435 00:23:35,339 --> 00:23:38,140 Speaker 2: because they don't want to see the region destabilized further 436 00:23:38,140 --> 00:23:39,458 Speaker 2: from what it already is. 437 00:23:39,819 --> 00:23:42,379 Speaker 2: If you're Saudi Arabia, you look to your south in Yemen, 438 00:23:42,550 --> 00:23:44,310 Speaker 2: there's a mess and a civil war. You look to 439 00:23:44,310 --> 00:23:46,300 Speaker 2: the east, I'm sorry, you look to the west, you 440 00:23:46,300 --> 00:23:49,020 Speaker 2: see Sudan, there's a war and chaos, you know, you 441 00:23:49,020 --> 00:23:51,869 Speaker 2: look to the north until not too long ago, Syria 442 00:23:51,869 --> 00:23:55,149 Speaker 2: was in chaos, you, you know, and, and the war 443 00:23:55,150 --> 00:23:58,310 Speaker 2: in Gaza as well. So, you know, you're looking around 444 00:23:58,310 --> 00:24:00,569 Speaker 2: and you're seeing a lot of instability, and you want 445 00:24:00,569 --> 00:24:03,550 Speaker 2: stability because you want to get on with the business 446 00:24:03,550 --> 00:24:08,069 Speaker 2: of diversifying your economy, building out your infrastructure, building new sectors. 447 00:24:08,449 --> 00:24:11,140 Speaker 2: In your economy, you can't do that if there are 448 00:24:11,140 --> 00:24:14,329 Speaker 2: missiles and bombs and drones flying around all all over 449 00:24:14,329 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 2: the place and you're being attacked for being an ally 450 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:18,459 Speaker 2: of the United States. 451 00:24:19,459 --> 00:24:21,660 Speaker 1: So Bernie, that takes me, since you brought up the 452 00:24:21,660 --> 00:24:24,010 Speaker 1: issue related to the economy. So I see the tech 453 00:24:24,010 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: bros in the US very close to the Middle Eastern, 454 00:24:28,329 --> 00:24:32,339 Speaker 1: you know, oil rich, wealth rich economies. You see the 455 00:24:32,339 --> 00:24:35,819 Speaker 1: likes of Saudi being a very sort of eager investor 456 00:24:35,819 --> 00:24:39,179 Speaker 1: in the whole AI buildout and the open AIs of 457 00:24:39,180 --> 00:24:41,260 Speaker 1: the world, you know, always will have their roadshows going 458 00:24:41,260 --> 00:24:45,540 Speaker 1: to the Middle East because there are deep pockets. So 459 00:24:45,900 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 1: in terms of, let's say Saudi Arabia to start with, 460 00:24:49,530 --> 00:24:53,479 Speaker 1: Managing its economy, scaling back some of the very ambitious projects, 461 00:24:53,869 --> 00:25:00,099 Speaker 1: dealing with fairly lackluster oil price, um, how is MBS 462 00:25:00,410 --> 00:25:01,829 Speaker 1: managing Saudi Arabia right now? 463 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,198 Speaker 2: Right, so I think that an important distinction has to 464 00:25:06,199 --> 00:25:08,439 Speaker 2: be made between Saudi Arabia on the one hand and 465 00:25:08,439 --> 00:25:11,159 Speaker 2: the UAE and Qatar and Kuwait on the other, right? 466 00:25:11,270 --> 00:25:15,260 Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia has 24 times the population of the UAE. Uh, 467 00:25:15,319 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 2: it's a much bigger country. It has real kind of politics, 468 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 2: real economic challenges, unlike the UAE with, you know, 1 469 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 2: million population, 1.2 million population, you know, yes, there are 470 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,119 Speaker 2: 9 million guest workers, but they don't really count. 471 00:25:29,599 --> 00:25:32,689 Speaker 2: Um, so the UAE has plenty of money to spend 472 00:25:32,689 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 2: on its own population. It's, it'll never, you know, even 473 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:41,130 Speaker 2: at $50 price of oil, it doesn't face a crisis, 474 00:25:41,209 --> 00:25:45,410 Speaker 2: whereas Saudi is facing a crisis in that the oil 475 00:25:45,410 --> 00:25:52,069 Speaker 2: revenue is not sufficient as a breakeven price for its, uh, fiscal, uh, 476 00:25:52,250 --> 00:25:55,790 Speaker 2: demands on, on, on it, you know, on its, on its, um, budget. 477 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,890 Speaker 2: Um, it needs actually a much higher price. I mean, 478 00:25:58,930 --> 00:26:02,719 Speaker 2: closer to $90 a barrel for, for it to, to 479 00:26:02,719 --> 00:26:06,079 Speaker 2: be able to, um, to balance its budget. And then 480 00:26:06,079 --> 00:26:09,609 Speaker 2: it has these huge projects, some, some of which like Neon, 481 00:26:09,689 --> 00:26:12,939 Speaker 2: for instance, which is this big city, uh, this and, 482 00:26:12,969 --> 00:26:16,849 Speaker 2: and territory the size of Belgium, um, you know, have 483 00:26:16,849 --> 00:26:20,130 Speaker 2: not delivered economically, and they've had to scale them back 484 00:26:20,130 --> 00:26:24,729 Speaker 2: very significantly. So the, the, uh, the, so, so the 485 00:26:24,729 --> 00:26:25,829 Speaker 2: Saudis are 486 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:27,899 Speaker 2: Borrowing a lot of money. 487 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:33,329 Speaker 2: Uh, internationally and domestically, uh, they do this either through 488 00:26:33,329 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 2: the government or also through Saudi Aramco, the oil company, 489 00:26:36,729 --> 00:26:40,380 Speaker 2: or through the sovereign wealth fund. So there are these, um, 490 00:26:41,010 --> 00:26:43,930 Speaker 2: these amounts that are borrowed that don't appear on this, in, 491 00:26:44,030 --> 00:26:46,649 Speaker 2: in the, on the state budget, um. 492 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,020 Speaker 2: And I'm not sure Trump actually realizes there's there's, there's 493 00:26:51,020 --> 00:26:53,380 Speaker 2: this difference between the Saudis and the Emiratis and the 494 00:26:53,380 --> 00:26:57,819 Speaker 2: Qataris when it comes to how much disposable income they have, um, 495 00:26:58,020 --> 00:27:02,619 Speaker 2: and the Saudis, just like the Emiratis, um, but especially 496 00:27:02,619 --> 00:27:05,139 Speaker 2: the Saudis, MBS believes that AI is sort of a 497 00:27:05,140 --> 00:27:09,829 Speaker 2: silver bullet. Uh, it's going to really help transform the 498 00:27:09,829 --> 00:27:12,389 Speaker 2: global economy, and he wants to be part of that transformation, 499 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 2: and it'll bring. 500 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 2: The uh the, the alternative to oil in terms of 501 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,839 Speaker 2: revenue for, for, for the country. And so what he 502 00:27:21,839 --> 00:27:26,139 Speaker 2: has to offer for AI and building these data centers 503 00:27:26,319 --> 00:27:29,319 Speaker 2: is not so much capital, although he does have capital 504 00:27:29,319 --> 00:27:32,680 Speaker 2: for that. It's the fact that he has the lowest 505 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 2: cost of energy production in the world between gas and 506 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:40,369 Speaker 2: solar and wind. Um, it's also that he has. 507 00:27:40,729 --> 00:27:43,890 Speaker 2: Endless amounts of land that he can give. 508 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:49,949 Speaker 2: A low to non-existent regulatory environment for the development of AI, 509 00:27:50,089 --> 00:27:51,890 Speaker 2: which is very important because in the US you do 510 00:27:51,890 --> 00:27:57,448 Speaker 2: have regulation, uh, that hinders, um, certain things, uh, when 511 00:27:57,449 --> 00:28:01,929 Speaker 2: it comes to AI development, um, and, uh, you know, so, 512 00:28:02,050 --> 00:28:06,750 Speaker 2: so it, it's an environment where you have an incredibly, uh, hospitable. 513 00:28:07,260 --> 00:28:15,020 Speaker 2: Uh, energy, capital, land, and regulatory sort of situation, and 514 00:28:15,020 --> 00:28:19,379 Speaker 2: that's what he hopes will enable and will attract these 515 00:28:19,380 --> 00:28:23,859 Speaker 2: AI companies to come and develop data centers. Now how 516 00:28:23,859 --> 00:28:26,500 Speaker 2: do you go from developing and allowing data centers in 517 00:28:26,500 --> 00:28:29,379 Speaker 2: your country to be, to be built? So Neon, for instance, 518 00:28:29,459 --> 00:28:32,300 Speaker 2: now is going to be turned into mostly AI data centers. 519 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 2: Into, into, into revenue, you know, I mean, are you 520 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 2: going to share the IP with these companies, um, you know, 521 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,829 Speaker 2: how do you, how do you, are you going to develop, 522 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:46,719 Speaker 2: you know, a domestic, um, human capital that will be, 523 00:28:46,839 --> 00:28:49,560 Speaker 2: you know, the best in the, uh, in developing these 524 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 2: data centers? I mean, how, how do you translate the 525 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 2: data centers into jobs, into revenue, you know, into foreign 526 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:01,780 Speaker 2: direct investments, I mean, into basically helping transform the country. 527 00:29:02,430 --> 00:29:06,949 Speaker 2: Uh, According to Vision 2030, this vision of diversification, I'm 528 00:29:06,949 --> 00:29:09,390 Speaker 2: not sure. I, I don't, I don't see the links 529 00:29:09,390 --> 00:29:13,310 Speaker 2: very clearly between the two, other than, you know, this 530 00:29:13,310 --> 00:29:19,079 Speaker 2: belief that AI somehow will magically generate a lot of wealth. Uh, 531 00:29:19,150 --> 00:29:21,189 Speaker 2: how I'm not quite sure for the Saudis at 532 00:29:21,189 --> 00:29:21,540 Speaker 2: least, 533 00:29:21,790 --> 00:29:23,790 Speaker 1: right? Uh, I just want to stay with Saudi a 534 00:29:23,790 --> 00:29:27,089 Speaker 1: little longer. How is Saudi playing US on one hand 535 00:29:27,089 --> 00:29:30,270 Speaker 1: and China on the other hand, because you're talking about tech. 536 00:29:30,839 --> 00:29:32,930 Speaker 1: We might be heading toward a world where we have 537 00:29:32,930 --> 00:29:36,030 Speaker 1: parallel tech developments, you know, Chinese AI versus US AI, 538 00:29:36,689 --> 00:29:40,660 Speaker 1: multiple standards, and so on. Is Saudi Arabia remaining open 539 00:29:40,660 --> 00:29:41,189 Speaker 1: to both? 540 00:29:42,329 --> 00:29:45,569 Speaker 2: No, so the and the last time I spoke to 541 00:29:45,569 --> 00:29:49,410 Speaker 2: the Saudi leadership about this, which was, you know, a 542 00:29:49,410 --> 00:29:52,369 Speaker 2: few months ago, they still believed that the US had 543 00:29:52,369 --> 00:29:55,729 Speaker 2: superior technology and that they wanted to go with the 544 00:29:55,729 --> 00:29:59,949 Speaker 2: better technology over, over the Chinese, which was inferior, uh, 545 00:29:59,959 --> 00:30:02,380 Speaker 2: and that they were willing, at least they said they 546 00:30:02,380 --> 00:30:03,770 Speaker 2: were willing to sever. 547 00:30:04,369 --> 00:30:08,969 Speaker 2: Ah, selectively sever their ties to the Chinese on, on 548 00:30:08,969 --> 00:30:13,209 Speaker 2: certain technologies, especially those that the US will insist, um, 549 00:30:13,329 --> 00:30:16,430 Speaker 2: you know, are off limits to the Chinese. So certain, certain, 550 00:30:16,599 --> 00:30:19,530 Speaker 2: you know, uh, chips I would imagine and other, other 551 00:30:19,530 --> 00:30:21,810 Speaker 2: types of data, um. 552 00:30:22,810 --> 00:30:24,810 Speaker 2: So the choice is to go with the US just 553 00:30:24,810 --> 00:30:26,530 Speaker 2: like the choices to go with the US when it 554 00:30:26,530 --> 00:30:30,930 Speaker 2: comes to um military platforms and military hardware where they 555 00:30:30,930 --> 00:30:34,489 Speaker 2: feel that the Americans are superior to um and there's 556 00:30:34,489 --> 00:30:37,290 Speaker 2: a legacy here as well when it comes to military 557 00:30:37,290 --> 00:30:41,170 Speaker 2: armaments and so on. Um, so the choice is very 558 00:30:41,170 --> 00:30:44,930 Speaker 2: much to say on tech we will be with America. 559 00:30:45,410 --> 00:30:50,540 Speaker 2: And on other issues, say, let's say infrastructure, building railroads, uh, 560 00:30:50,859 --> 00:30:56,089 Speaker 2: building bridges, you know, that sort of petrochemicals, we're fine with, 561 00:30:56,219 --> 00:31:00,369 Speaker 2: you know, being with the Chinese solar energy, that's China. 562 00:31:00,660 --> 00:31:04,180 Speaker 2: So they're going to like segment the economy in that 563 00:31:04,180 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 2: way. 564 00:31:05,060 --> 00:31:07,099 Speaker 1: I'm sure in your recent travels to Saudi, you've seen 565 00:31:07,099 --> 00:31:08,660 Speaker 1: a few Chinese EVs on the roads. 566 00:31:09,260 --> 00:31:12,859 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, absolutely. There are Chinese EVs and also the Saudis, 567 00:31:12,900 --> 00:31:15,260 Speaker 2: by the way, are developing their own EVs. They have 568 00:31:15,260 --> 00:31:18,989 Speaker 2: this huge investment in Lucid, which hasn't done very well, uh, 569 00:31:19,060 --> 00:31:21,219 Speaker 2: but they have the, they have, uh, they've, they've placed 570 00:31:21,219 --> 00:31:23,319 Speaker 2: a bet also on EVs themselves. 571 00:31:24,569 --> 00:31:25,869 Speaker 1: Now, uh, the 572 00:31:26,969 --> 00:31:29,459 Speaker 1: As you were saying earlier that Saudi Arabia is a 573 00:31:29,459 --> 00:31:32,420 Speaker 1: huge country with its own internal political dynamic, and it 574 00:31:32,420 --> 00:31:36,739 Speaker 1: has a rather restive regional tensions all around. I want 575 00:31:36,739 --> 00:31:38,839 Speaker 1: to talk a little bit about Yemen, not because of Yemen, 576 00:31:38,859 --> 00:31:42,819 Speaker 1: but more the whole UE Saudi Arabia tension that has 577 00:31:42,819 --> 00:31:45,099 Speaker 1: sort of come out in the open in the last 578 00:31:45,099 --> 00:31:45,699 Speaker 1: month or so. 579 00:31:47,250 --> 00:31:50,729 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, look, Yemen is a very, very complicated country, 580 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:52,489 Speaker 2: and I don't want to get into the weeds because 581 00:31:52,489 --> 00:31:55,060 Speaker 2: I'll lose your, your audience if I talk too much 582 00:31:55,060 --> 00:31:58,369 Speaker 2: about Yemen. But I think what's interesting about Yemen is 583 00:31:58,369 --> 00:32:02,329 Speaker 2: that it shows that there are real tensions between Saudi 584 00:32:02,329 --> 00:32:05,050 Speaker 2: Arabia and the UAE, and those tensions are not just 585 00:32:05,050 --> 00:32:09,020 Speaker 2: about Yemen. They're actually structural, and they're very deep, um, 586 00:32:09,569 --> 00:32:10,949 Speaker 2: and they have to do with 587 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,439 Speaker 2: A difference in how you do politics, how you think 588 00:32:15,439 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 2: of the region, um, and they're also, uh, economic competition 589 00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,579 Speaker 2: between the countries. So if you look at the, uh, 590 00:32:23,689 --> 00:32:27,079 Speaker 2: let's just talk structurally, OK. First, Saudi Arabia is the 591 00:32:27,079 --> 00:32:29,040 Speaker 2: 800 pound gorilla. It's a big, big country in the, 592 00:32:29,079 --> 00:32:29,660 Speaker 2: in this region. 593 00:32:30,050 --> 00:32:32,489 Speaker 2: And the UAE and it sees the UAE and Qatar 594 00:32:32,489 --> 00:32:36,130 Speaker 2: and Kuwait and Bahrain, and to some extent Oman as 595 00:32:36,130 --> 00:32:39,810 Speaker 2: well as sort of these smaller countries that should kowtow 596 00:32:39,810 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 2: to the Saudis. Uh, so that's, that's one view. And 597 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,290 Speaker 2: of course that's resisted by the UAE and by the 598 00:32:45,290 --> 00:32:48,199 Speaker 2: smaller countries because they feel that they're equal, uh, to, 599 00:32:48,329 --> 00:32:50,369 Speaker 2: to the Saudi. But you know, historically that's not been 600 00:32:50,369 --> 00:32:53,209 Speaker 2: the case. And, and the Saudis, you know, certainly don't 601 00:32:53,209 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 2: feel that way about them, that they're not equals, that, 602 00:32:55,369 --> 00:32:57,109 Speaker 2: you know, the survival of Saudi Arabia. 603 00:32:57,349 --> 00:33:01,030 Speaker 2: It is crucial. Without Saudi Arabia's success, none of them 604 00:33:01,030 --> 00:33:03,939 Speaker 2: can succeed. None of them can actually survive. And so, 605 00:33:04,030 --> 00:33:07,510 Speaker 2: so that's one point. The other, the other point again, Saudi, 606 00:33:07,569 --> 00:33:10,949 Speaker 2: UAE is that they're both major oil producers and both 607 00:33:10,949 --> 00:33:14,790 Speaker 2: have major spare capacity. And when you have spare capacity, 608 00:33:14,829 --> 00:33:18,109 Speaker 2: which is the capacity to produce oil fairly quickly, but 609 00:33:18,109 --> 00:33:22,270 Speaker 2: that you're not producing because of economic global considerations or 610 00:33:22,270 --> 00:33:23,989 Speaker 2: because you want the price to be at a certain level, 611 00:33:24,069 --> 00:33:25,170 Speaker 2: so you're keeping production. 612 00:33:25,709 --> 00:33:31,560 Speaker 2: Uh, from coming onto the market. That's an extremely expensive proposition, uh, 613 00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,380 Speaker 2: because you've developed these, these capabilities and you're not producing them. 614 00:33:35,859 --> 00:33:38,439 Speaker 2: And you only do that if you want to play 615 00:33:38,439 --> 00:33:40,760 Speaker 2: the market and be a market stabilizer, and that's how 616 00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,959 Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia sees itself. The UAE has also built the 617 00:33:43,959 --> 00:33:46,959 Speaker 2: spare capacity, but it doesn't see itself as a market stabilizer. 618 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:50,599 Speaker 2: It wants to produce as much as possible to generate 619 00:33:50,839 --> 00:33:54,000 Speaker 2: as much revenue as possible before the energy transition happens 620 00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,310 Speaker 2: and oil becomes a much less valuable commodity. So I 621 00:33:57,310 --> 00:34:01,239 Speaker 2: have a different attitude when it comes to oil and production. 622 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,479 Speaker 2: And that clash is bound to happen because of the 623 00:34:04,479 --> 00:34:07,790 Speaker 2: spare capacity that they both have, uh, and, and this 624 00:34:07,790 --> 00:34:10,860 Speaker 2: different view on, on what to do with it. Um, 625 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,580 Speaker 2: then there's the, the, the difference between them in terms 626 00:34:14,580 --> 00:34:19,479 Speaker 2: of the UAE having a policy of obsessive policy of 627 00:34:19,479 --> 00:34:23,820 Speaker 2: fighting Islamism everywhere. So the leader of the UAE hates 628 00:34:23,820 --> 00:34:24,760 Speaker 2: the Muslim Brotherhood. 629 00:34:25,218 --> 00:34:28,377 Speaker 2: Uh, this is Mohammed bin Zaid, and anywhere he sees 630 00:34:28,378 --> 00:34:31,168 Speaker 2: elements of the Muslim Brotherhood in power or coming to power, 631 00:34:31,498 --> 00:34:34,819 Speaker 2: he will support the opposition to them. So he's done 632 00:34:34,819 --> 00:34:38,618 Speaker 2: that in, in the Sudan where he's supported the rapid 633 00:34:38,618 --> 00:34:40,998 Speaker 2: support forces. These are kind of 634 00:34:41,678 --> 00:34:46,138 Speaker 2: Very violent militias that have been involved in genocidal acts, 635 00:34:46,958 --> 00:34:50,049 Speaker 2: and while he, while the UAE doesn't support genocide, it, 636 00:34:50,158 --> 00:34:54,158 Speaker 2: it will support a genocidal person and movement because it 637 00:34:54,158 --> 00:34:57,598 Speaker 2: doesn't want the Sudanese army to dominate the country because 638 00:34:57,599 --> 00:35:01,509 Speaker 2: the Sudanese army is riddled with and full of elements 639 00:35:01,509 --> 00:35:05,118 Speaker 2: of the Muslim Brotherhood. Similarly, in Yemen, they don't want 640 00:35:05,118 --> 00:35:08,948 Speaker 2: to be involved with any Islamists, so they've backed a 641 00:35:08,948 --> 00:35:11,039 Speaker 2: secessionist movement in South Yemen. 642 00:35:11,510 --> 00:35:16,029 Speaker 2: Um, it's called the Southern Transition Council, and, and so 643 00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:20,439 Speaker 2: the UE has this kind of imperial ambition, uh, to 644 00:35:20,439 --> 00:35:24,319 Speaker 2: build networks with non-Islamists around the, around the place and 645 00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:30,719 Speaker 2: have bases and, and ports in Somaliland, in, uh, in Yemen, 646 00:35:30,830 --> 00:35:33,310 Speaker 2: in Sudan, and so on, and the Saudis feel that 647 00:35:33,310 --> 00:35:36,439 Speaker 2: they're being encircled by the UAE, by kind of this 648 00:35:36,439 --> 00:35:38,909 Speaker 2: smaller country, and they don't want that, you know, they 649 00:35:38,909 --> 00:35:40,600 Speaker 2: don't want to be encircled. And so the 650 00:35:40,949 --> 00:35:43,469 Speaker 2: The, the, the, the straw that broke the camel's back 651 00:35:43,469 --> 00:35:47,620 Speaker 2: was when MBS visited Washington last November and he met 652 00:35:47,620 --> 00:35:50,810 Speaker 2: with Trump, and he asked Trump to get involved in this, 653 00:35:50,830 --> 00:35:54,159 Speaker 2: in ending the Sudanese civil war. Um. 654 00:35:54,830 --> 00:35:58,090 Speaker 2: Which meant basically putting pressure on the RSF, putting pressure 655 00:35:58,090 --> 00:35:59,909 Speaker 2: on the rapid support forces who are being backed by 656 00:35:59,909 --> 00:36:04,500 Speaker 2: the UAE. DE saw the MBS's ask of Trump to 657 00:36:04,500 --> 00:36:06,350 Speaker 2: get involved in the Sudan. By the way, I don't 658 00:36:06,350 --> 00:36:07,989 Speaker 2: think Trump was aware that there was a war in 659 00:36:07,989 --> 00:36:10,540 Speaker 2: Sudan or he doesn't know where Sudan is. But anyway, 660 00:36:10,830 --> 00:36:13,949 Speaker 2: leaving that point aside for a second, the UAE saw 661 00:36:13,949 --> 00:36:18,790 Speaker 2: MBS's ask of Trump as an ask to sanction and 662 00:36:18,790 --> 00:36:21,070 Speaker 2: put pressure on the UAE. So the UAE said, Oh, 663 00:36:21,189 --> 00:36:22,989 Speaker 2: you're going to put pressure on us in Sudan. We're 664 00:36:22,989 --> 00:36:24,629 Speaker 2: going to put pressure on you in Yemen by 665 00:36:25,219 --> 00:36:28,620 Speaker 2: Having the forces that we back take over several provinces 666 00:36:28,620 --> 00:36:32,149 Speaker 2: that are on your territory, on your border, on Saudi's border. 667 00:36:32,270 --> 00:36:35,389 Speaker 2: So the Saudis basically said, look, you know, there are 668 00:36:35,389 --> 00:36:38,069 Speaker 2: certain countries that are really important for us that are 669 00:36:38,070 --> 00:36:40,549 Speaker 2: on our border, and you're not going to play around 670 00:36:40,550 --> 00:36:44,909 Speaker 2: here and try to impose who's going to rule. So we, 671 00:36:45,350 --> 00:36:47,229 Speaker 2: they drew a red line in the sand, you know, 672 00:36:47,310 --> 00:36:50,050 Speaker 2: on Yemen and then decided to intervene. 673 00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,159 Speaker 2: And pushed the RSF back out of those provinces that 674 00:36:53,159 --> 00:36:56,879 Speaker 2: they had taken over and pushed the UAE out, uh, 675 00:36:57,199 --> 00:36:59,760 Speaker 2: or at least try to push the UAE out of Yemen. 676 00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:05,029 Speaker 2: So that tension between the Saudi and the UAE is, is, 677 00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,360 Speaker 2: is unfortunate. It's, you know, because the two countries actually 678 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:12,279 Speaker 2: share a lot of common political interests for stability in 679 00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:13,360 Speaker 2: the region and so on. 680 00:37:13,709 --> 00:37:17,439 Speaker 2: Um, but there are, there is also competition between them. Uh, 681 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,479 Speaker 2: you know, Saudi wants all the companies that do business 682 00:37:20,479 --> 00:37:23,120 Speaker 2: in the Gulf to move their headquarters to Riyadh, not 683 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,800 Speaker 2: to stay in Dubai. Uh, they don't want, you know, 684 00:37:25,919 --> 00:37:28,330 Speaker 2: the UAE to be, they're going to compete with the 685 00:37:28,330 --> 00:37:31,639 Speaker 2: UAE over business. I mean, they're, they're building a new 686 00:37:31,639 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 2: airline in Saudi Arabia that's going to compete with both 687 00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:35,638 Speaker 2: the Emirates and Etihad. 688 00:37:35,979 --> 00:37:38,330 Speaker 2: Um, so they, you know, they're trying to build a 689 00:37:38,330 --> 00:37:42,020 Speaker 2: logistics hub and a and a tech tech tech hub 690 00:37:42,020 --> 00:37:44,489 Speaker 2: and all that. So, you know, they're in direct competition 691 00:37:44,489 --> 00:37:47,659 Speaker 2: with each other. As long as the competition remains about economics, 692 00:37:47,739 --> 00:37:50,300 Speaker 2: I think it's fine, but once it enters into politics 693 00:37:50,300 --> 00:37:54,739 Speaker 2: and it involves non-state actors being backed or military confrontation, 694 00:37:54,820 --> 00:37:56,979 Speaker 2: then it becomes quite dangerous. 695 00:37:57,870 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 1: Indeed, you know, Bernie, 5 years ago when I used 696 00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:01,719 Speaker 1: to go to Dubai, I have to see these. 697 00:38:02,469 --> 00:38:06,158 Speaker 1: 50-60 meter tall posters of MBS and MBZ side by side. 698 00:38:06,689 --> 00:38:08,699 Speaker 1: That was a long time ago, it feels like because 699 00:38:08,699 --> 00:38:13,010 Speaker 1: clearly no more posters like that anymore. This takes me 700 00:38:13,010 --> 00:38:15,899 Speaker 1: to the other big, you know, player in the Middle 701 00:38:15,899 --> 00:38:20,290 Speaker 1: East increasingly so. It's this, you know, increasingly imperial Israel, 702 00:38:20,659 --> 00:38:25,609 Speaker 1: you know, from Syria to Lebanon to Somaliland to Yemen. 703 00:38:25,659 --> 00:38:29,260 Speaker 1: I mean, Israel's hands are everywhere these days. Where is 704 00:38:29,260 --> 00:38:32,479 Speaker 1: sort of, you know, Netanyahu going with this broader Israeli idea? 705 00:38:34,739 --> 00:38:38,969 Speaker 2: So I mean the Israelis, um, I think again in 706 00:38:38,969 --> 00:38:42,699 Speaker 2: Israel we need to think about um the this present 707 00:38:42,699 --> 00:38:47,300 Speaker 2: government is dominated by extreme right wing elements that do 708 00:38:47,300 --> 00:38:51,020 Speaker 2: have imperial ambitions and that do want to see the 709 00:38:51,020 --> 00:38:54,779 Speaker 2: victories that Israel has had militarily, whether over Hamas or 710 00:38:54,780 --> 00:38:57,820 Speaker 2: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza. 711 00:38:58,149 --> 00:39:03,459 Speaker 2: Um, over Shiite militias and Iran itself, Shiite militias in Syria, 712 00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,479 Speaker 2: I mean, the toppling of the Assad regime could not 713 00:39:05,479 --> 00:39:09,719 Speaker 2: have happened without Israeli intervention in that, in that, in 714 00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,739 Speaker 2: that country. They want to see Israel sort of also 715 00:39:12,739 --> 00:39:15,639 Speaker 2: expand a kind of idea of greater Israel, take over 716 00:39:15,639 --> 00:39:19,439 Speaker 2: and annex the West Bank, keep hold of certain territories 717 00:39:19,439 --> 00:39:22,520 Speaker 2: that they've taken over in Syria, maybe even bits of Lebanon, 718 00:39:22,590 --> 00:39:24,479 Speaker 2: although they say they don't want to stay in these 719 00:39:24,479 --> 00:39:26,739 Speaker 2: five villages that they still control in Lebanon. 720 00:39:28,149 --> 00:39:33,090 Speaker 2: And, and, uh, so the way I see the Middle East, 721 00:39:33,429 --> 00:39:38,550 Speaker 2: there are two views on, uh, on, on politics. You 722 00:39:38,550 --> 00:39:41,770 Speaker 2: have the revisionist camp, the camp that wants to change 723 00:39:41,770 --> 00:39:45,310 Speaker 2: the order, and, uh, and so the Iranians want to 724 00:39:45,310 --> 00:39:48,669 Speaker 2: change the order in the region by destroying Israel and 725 00:39:48,780 --> 00:39:51,120 Speaker 2: getting rid of the Americans and toppling the regimes in 726 00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,489 Speaker 2: the Gulf. And then you have the Israelis who are 727 00:39:53,489 --> 00:39:55,589 Speaker 2: the other side of the same coin. They also have 728 00:39:55,590 --> 00:39:56,830 Speaker 2: this revisionist view. 729 00:39:57,199 --> 00:40:00,320 Speaker 2: Of wanting to change the order of the region, uh, 730 00:40:00,330 --> 00:40:04,610 Speaker 2: by toppling Iran and, and expanding their own territory and, 731 00:40:04,939 --> 00:40:07,250 Speaker 2: and then you have this other camp, the camp that's 732 00:40:07,250 --> 00:40:11,570 Speaker 2: led by the Saudis, but also includes Egypt and other 733 00:40:11,570 --> 00:40:17,000 Speaker 2: countries that wants stability, wants economic prosperity, development. They don't 734 00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,060 Speaker 2: want to change the status, the, the, the they're not revisionists. 735 00:40:20,129 --> 00:40:22,770 Speaker 2: They want the status quo. They also are happy with 736 00:40:22,770 --> 00:40:26,689 Speaker 2: American power and American domination of the region. 737 00:40:26,979 --> 00:40:29,459 Speaker 2: And so you have these two camps and the Israelis 738 00:40:29,459 --> 00:40:32,729 Speaker 2: kind of unfortunately, with this government fit in with this 739 00:40:32,729 --> 00:40:37,100 Speaker 2: revisionist view. And the only power that can stop the 740 00:40:37,100 --> 00:40:39,419 Speaker 2: Israelis from doing what it is they want to do 741 00:40:39,419 --> 00:40:46,989 Speaker 2: is the United States. I mean, essentially there's no other force, uh, 742 00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:50,739 Speaker 2: power that has this that has influence on on Israel 743 00:40:50,739 --> 00:40:53,679 Speaker 2: other than the United States, unless, of course, domestically. 744 00:40:54,090 --> 00:40:57,060 Speaker 2: Uh, within Israel, you have a movement that, you know, 745 00:40:57,219 --> 00:41:01,500 Speaker 2: finally decides to take Netanyahu to task for the failures 746 00:41:01,500 --> 00:41:05,620 Speaker 2: of October 7th, blame him for that failure. Um, a 747 00:41:05,620 --> 00:41:09,699 Speaker 2: more moderate camp emerges that wants to see the emergence 748 00:41:09,699 --> 00:41:14,679 Speaker 2: of a Palestinian state, um, very unlikely, uh, at the moment. 749 00:41:14,860 --> 00:41:19,459 Speaker 2: But the Saudis in viewing this conflict, uh, between the 750 00:41:19,459 --> 00:41:23,199 Speaker 2: Israelis and the Palestinians, essentially have a very simple. 751 00:41:23,629 --> 00:41:24,589 Speaker 2: Analysis. 752 00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:27,859 Speaker 2: The question of Palestine is not going to go away 753 00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:32,879 Speaker 2: unless you address it and give Palestinians self-determination in some form, 754 00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:35,839 Speaker 2: and the Saudis don't don't want to dictate what that 755 00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:39,199 Speaker 2: form will take. You're always going to have a source 756 00:41:39,199 --> 00:41:43,399 Speaker 2: of radicalization, a source of instability in the region, because 757 00:41:43,399 --> 00:41:45,879 Speaker 2: the Iranians or the Turks or anyone else is going 758 00:41:45,879 --> 00:41:49,520 Speaker 2: to invoke Palestine and the suffering of the Palestinians to 759 00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:52,520 Speaker 2: inflame sentiments and to inflame. 760 00:41:52,959 --> 00:41:57,189 Speaker 2: Uh, and make people feel radical and resort to violence 761 00:41:57,469 --> 00:42:01,969 Speaker 2: against Israel. So Israel, this is the Saudis speaking, sort 762 00:42:01,969 --> 00:42:04,290 Speaker 2: out the Palestinian, give them something so that we can 763 00:42:04,290 --> 00:42:06,689 Speaker 2: move on. We can all move on and then integrate 764 00:42:06,689 --> 00:42:10,969 Speaker 2: the region, bring Israel into the region, and, uh, and 765 00:42:10,969 --> 00:42:15,090 Speaker 2: have this kind of European Union style, uh, uh, you know, 766 00:42:15,330 --> 00:42:18,729 Speaker 2: order in which everyone is trading rather than fighting. 767 00:42:19,300 --> 00:42:22,300 Speaker 2: Uh, that, that's the Saudi position on, on the Palestinians 768 00:42:22,300 --> 00:42:26,399 Speaker 2: and the Israelis, uh, effectively they're asking the Israelis to 769 00:42:26,620 --> 00:42:29,500 Speaker 2: pay lip service to the Palestinians and to do something cosmetic. 770 00:42:29,570 --> 00:42:31,419 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think they're asking for something very 771 00:42:31,419 --> 00:42:36,850 Speaker 2: substantive if you listen carefully, um, and the Israelis are unwilling, 772 00:42:37,290 --> 00:42:39,919 Speaker 2: completely unwilling to do this, and it's because they feel 773 00:42:40,260 --> 00:42:45,659 Speaker 2: that they can win and they can establish a greater 774 00:42:45,659 --> 00:42:49,060 Speaker 2: Israel and deny the Palestinians forever a state. 775 00:42:49,570 --> 00:42:53,979 Speaker 2: And, and as a result, you will have instability in 776 00:42:53,979 --> 00:42:54,500 Speaker 2: the region. 777 00:42:55,419 --> 00:42:57,739 Speaker 1: What do you make of this board of peace? 778 00:42:59,780 --> 00:43:02,659 Speaker 2: It's very hard to know, you know, what, you know, the, 779 00:43:03,020 --> 00:43:04,520 Speaker 2: the idea that somehow. 780 00:43:06,330 --> 00:43:09,589 Speaker 2: The solution to the Palestinian issue. 781 00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:14,040 Speaker 2: Uh, is not so much political but economic. Like if 782 00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:16,839 Speaker 2: you build enough buildings or if you build a Riviera 783 00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:20,799 Speaker 2: or if you build structures that somehow the, the solution 784 00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,189 Speaker 2: is through a real estate development project. I mean, let's 785 00:43:23,189 --> 00:43:27,080 Speaker 2: just call the border peace a fancy real estate development project, right? 786 00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,669 Speaker 2: That that's going, that, that's going to bring peace. I, I, I, 787 00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,239 Speaker 2: I find that difficult to, to, to believe. I mean, 788 00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:35,340 Speaker 2: ultimately the problem is political. 789 00:43:35,689 --> 00:43:39,090 Speaker 2: And unless that's addressed, no number of buildings and no 790 00:43:39,090 --> 00:43:42,560 Speaker 2: number of casinos and no number of infrastructure developments is 791 00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:46,560 Speaker 2: going to end up solving the the Palestinian issue. So 792 00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:48,649 Speaker 2: it has to be tackled head on, I think. 793 00:43:50,010 --> 00:43:53,090 Speaker 1: Just to go back to Israel for one second, this 794 00:43:53,090 --> 00:43:55,030 Speaker 1: recognition of Somaliland. 795 00:43:56,620 --> 00:44:00,199 Speaker 1: Another sort of, you know, piece of a bigger plan, 796 00:44:00,219 --> 00:44:02,850 Speaker 1: or it just happens to be the case where there's, 797 00:44:03,169 --> 00:44:05,020 Speaker 1: to your point of, you know, find one place where 798 00:44:05,020 --> 00:44:08,389 Speaker 1: you can assert your power and you just seize on 799 00:44:08,389 --> 00:44:10,439 Speaker 1: this random place that nobody really has heard of. 800 00:44:11,989 --> 00:44:12,860 Speaker 2: So look, 801 00:44:12,909 --> 00:44:16,408 Speaker 2: the Saudis in the, in their clash with the Emirates 802 00:44:16,689 --> 00:44:21,909 Speaker 2: have basically been saying that the Emirates is, uh, is 803 00:44:21,909 --> 00:44:24,979 Speaker 2: being used by Israel, that the Israelis have this grand design, 804 00:44:25,340 --> 00:44:27,830 Speaker 2: and the Emirates are, is the, you know, don't have 805 00:44:27,830 --> 00:44:29,750 Speaker 2: their own, they're not smart enough to have their own 806 00:44:29,750 --> 00:44:32,620 Speaker 2: kind of policies. They're the cat's paw of the Israelis, 807 00:44:32,989 --> 00:44:35,509 Speaker 2: and the Israelis have this grand design of, of dividing 808 00:44:35,510 --> 00:44:38,020 Speaker 2: up the region, keeping Arabs divided. 809 00:44:38,399 --> 00:44:42,250 Speaker 2: Um, so, you know, uh, getting involved in Somaliland and, 810 00:44:42,330 --> 00:44:48,209 Speaker 2: and recognizing it, um, uh, uh, supporting the RSF in Sudan, 811 00:44:48,449 --> 00:44:51,689 Speaker 2: supporting the separatists in Yemen, this is all part of 812 00:44:51,689 --> 00:44:55,489 Speaker 2: a grand Israeli design to keep the region, uh, divided 813 00:44:55,489 --> 00:44:58,409 Speaker 2: and in flux, you know, and that that serves Israel's 814 00:44:58,409 --> 00:45:02,530 Speaker 2: long term interests. I think that view, the, the kind 815 00:45:02,530 --> 00:45:06,649 Speaker 2: of conspiratorial view, um, that Israel has some sort of 816 00:45:06,649 --> 00:45:07,830 Speaker 2: grand design for the region. 817 00:45:08,409 --> 00:45:11,009 Speaker 2: Uh, and that the Emirates is sort of playing into 818 00:45:11,010 --> 00:45:13,169 Speaker 2: it is too simplistic. I mean, the Emirates have their 819 00:45:13,169 --> 00:45:15,689 Speaker 2: own policies. They have their own reasons for doing what 820 00:45:15,689 --> 00:45:18,989 Speaker 2: they do, and I described some of that earlier about 821 00:45:19,090 --> 00:45:23,089 Speaker 2: MBZ and his anti-Islamist position and so on. I think 822 00:45:23,090 --> 00:45:26,049 Speaker 2: the Israelis are just basically opportunists. I mean, if they 823 00:45:26,050 --> 00:45:29,489 Speaker 2: see an opportunity to create um 824 00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:34,239 Speaker 2: Uh, a base for themselves in Somaliland, which I think 825 00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,750 Speaker 2: they want because this is the entrance to the Red Sea, 826 00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,469 Speaker 2: you know, they would want to have a, a, a, a, 827 00:45:39,679 --> 00:45:43,679 Speaker 2: a listening post and a military position in that region, uh, 828 00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:47,399 Speaker 2: just like other countries want to have, uh, also a 829 00:45:47,399 --> 00:45:50,919 Speaker 2: military presence, and, you know, they, they, they will go 830 00:45:50,919 --> 00:45:52,520 Speaker 2: for it. I mean, I, I don't think, you know, 831 00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:53,620 Speaker 2: the Israeli position. 832 00:45:54,159 --> 00:45:57,399 Speaker 2: is based on some sort of grand design for the region. 833 00:45:57,479 --> 00:46:01,600 Speaker 2: It's more, you know, an opportunity that they can seize 834 00:46:01,919 --> 00:46:05,919 Speaker 2: uh for direct immediate results, which is control of the 835 00:46:05,919 --> 00:46:07,219 Speaker 2: entrance to the Red Sea. 836 00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:12,780 Speaker 1: So the Saudis and the Egyptians are cognizant and are 837 00:46:12,820 --> 00:46:15,919 Speaker 1: are completely accommodating of Israeli naval assets moving through the 838 00:46:15,919 --> 00:46:16,360 Speaker 1: Red Sea. 839 00:46:18,459 --> 00:46:20,428 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, they have to, they, you know, in 840 00:46:20,429 --> 00:46:24,149 Speaker 2: terms of the maritime, international maritime shipping, they have to, uh, 841 00:46:24,310 --> 00:46:26,429 Speaker 2: you know, allow it. I mean, are they happy about it? No, 842 00:46:26,510 --> 00:46:29,509 Speaker 2: I don't necessarily think they are happy about it. Um, 843 00:46:29,669 --> 00:46:31,750 Speaker 2: you know, they also have their own ambition and they 844 00:46:31,750 --> 00:46:35,229 Speaker 2: see that as their kind of backyard, especially in the 845 00:46:35,229 --> 00:46:37,069 Speaker 2: case of Saudi Arabia, if you look at most of 846 00:46:37,070 --> 00:46:41,350 Speaker 2: their plans, um, for big projects, they're almost all on 847 00:46:41,350 --> 00:46:42,090 Speaker 2: the Red Sea. 848 00:46:42,669 --> 00:46:46,469 Speaker 2: Uh, whether it's NEO or whether it's the tourist resorts and, 849 00:46:46,510 --> 00:46:49,948 Speaker 2: and the data centers, it's all kind of Red Sea related, 850 00:46:50,030 --> 00:46:53,770 Speaker 2: so no, they're not happy about the Israelis being there. 851 00:46:53,949 --> 00:46:56,069 Speaker 2: I mean, unless you know the Israelis are part of, 852 00:46:56,110 --> 00:47:01,149 Speaker 2: you know, a grand, uh, security infrastructure that's overseen by 853 00:47:01,149 --> 00:47:04,669 Speaker 2: the United States in which they're all equal partners and 854 00:47:04,669 --> 00:47:07,459 Speaker 2: or members, then, you know, I think there could be 855 00:47:07,459 --> 00:47:08,429 Speaker 2: some accommodation. 856 00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,060 Speaker 2: But, but this, this sort of Somaliland thing though, the 857 00:47:12,060 --> 00:47:13,479 Speaker 2: Saudis are not happy about it at all. 858 00:47:14,389 --> 00:47:18,360 Speaker 1: Um, one place that I fear will start catching headlines 859 00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,799 Speaker 1: very soon is Lebanon. Do you worry about a major 860 00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:25,080 Speaker 1: conflagration in the government's inability to disarm Hezbollah? 861 00:47:26,570 --> 00:47:31,610 Speaker 2: You know, I, I, Lebanon is a basket case. I mean, economically, um, 862 00:47:31,870 --> 00:47:36,580 Speaker 2: I don't see the possibility of a major military conflict 863 00:47:36,580 --> 00:47:39,860 Speaker 2: among the Lebanese, not least because, you know, military conflicts 864 00:47:39,860 --> 00:47:42,399 Speaker 2: cost money. You know, bullets are paid for in dollars, 865 00:47:42,540 --> 00:47:46,219 Speaker 2: not in Lebanese pounds, which is worthless. So unless there's 866 00:47:46,219 --> 00:47:50,659 Speaker 2: an outside force or power that's subsidizing the Lebanese to 867 00:47:50,659 --> 00:47:52,679 Speaker 2: buy weapons and to fight one another. 868 00:47:53,159 --> 00:47:55,810 Speaker 2: Uh, it's not likely to happen. And at the moment 869 00:47:55,810 --> 00:48:00,280 Speaker 2: we don't have outside powers meddling really inside Lebanon, uh, 870 00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:02,678 Speaker 2: and giving lots of money. I mean, Iran is still 871 00:48:02,679 --> 00:48:05,969 Speaker 2: trying to support Hezbollah, but the Lebanese government is not 872 00:48:05,969 --> 00:48:09,529 Speaker 2: going to fight Hezbollah, uh, because Hezbollah, you know, represents 873 00:48:09,530 --> 00:48:12,639 Speaker 2: a very serious constituency of Lebanese, and they still have 874 00:48:12,639 --> 00:48:13,330 Speaker 2: their weapons. 875 00:48:13,889 --> 00:48:17,860 Speaker 2: Um, and it doesn't serve anyone's interests. So I think 876 00:48:17,860 --> 00:48:21,580 Speaker 2: Lebanon will just keep muddling along, um, and until and 877 00:48:21,580 --> 00:48:27,840 Speaker 2: unless they resolve their, um, their bureaucracy, their government, their administration, 878 00:48:28,219 --> 00:48:32,899 Speaker 2: and are able to attract, um, capital, mainly from the diaspora. 879 00:48:32,969 --> 00:48:35,419 Speaker 2: By the way, the Lebanese don't need the help of 880 00:48:35,419 --> 00:48:39,250 Speaker 2: other countries like the Saudis or, or any other countries 881 00:48:39,250 --> 00:48:41,299 Speaker 2: or the UAE. I mean, if, if they could get 882 00:48:41,300 --> 00:48:42,360 Speaker 2: their act together. 883 00:48:42,639 --> 00:48:46,909 Speaker 2: In terms of proper governance, uh, you know, uh, and, 884 00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:51,360 Speaker 2: and a good, solid banking system, they, they have the 885 00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:55,139 Speaker 2: human capital and they have the, you know, the financial capital, 886 00:48:55,399 --> 00:48:59,379 Speaker 2: just with their diaspora to rebuild their country quite easily. 887 00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:03,459 Speaker 1: You don't see hundreds of tanks rolling into Lebanon from Israel. 888 00:49:05,030 --> 00:49:07,529 Speaker 2: I know what I see is that the Israelis are, 889 00:49:07,540 --> 00:49:10,909 Speaker 2: are going to keep attacking almost on a daily basis 890 00:49:10,909 --> 00:49:15,149 Speaker 2: like they've done and picking off, you know, Hezbollah operatives 891 00:49:15,149 --> 00:49:18,929 Speaker 2: and fighters and arms depots as and when they see them. 892 00:49:19,469 --> 00:49:22,029 Speaker 2: I don't see the Israelis going into war, going to 893 00:49:22,030 --> 00:49:24,469 Speaker 2: war in Lebanon, because why should they at the moment 894 00:49:24,469 --> 00:49:25,469 Speaker 2: they have Hezbollah. 895 00:49:25,879 --> 00:49:29,639 Speaker 2: Uh, pretty much on its knees and, and they're still 896 00:49:29,639 --> 00:49:33,580 Speaker 2: kind of debilitating, uh, as I said, on a daily basis, 897 00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:35,360 Speaker 2: you know, Hezbollah's assets. 898 00:49:36,090 --> 00:49:38,610 Speaker 1: Um, final point, I'm sorry, I'm kind of rushing you 899 00:49:38,610 --> 00:49:40,929 Speaker 1: through really complex issues, but if anybody can help me 900 00:49:40,929 --> 00:49:45,699 Speaker 1: do that, it's you, Bernie. Turkey, Syria, and the Kurds, uh, 901 00:49:46,090 --> 00:49:48,090 Speaker 1: this seems to be becoming a bit of an explosive 902 00:49:48,090 --> 00:49:48,750 Speaker 1: mix as well. 903 00:49:49,570 --> 00:49:52,810 Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, the, the Syrian government that, that's 904 00:49:52,810 --> 00:49:58,169 Speaker 2: taken over, uh, this is a movement called HDS, um, um, 905 00:49:58,209 --> 00:50:02,169 Speaker 2: Tahrir al Sham, um, and, and it's led by Ahmed 906 00:50:02,169 --> 00:50:06,129 Speaker 2: al Shara, the, the president, the president of Syria right now. 907 00:50:06,209 --> 00:50:10,090 Speaker 2: He's a kind of an interim president. Um, they owe 908 00:50:10,090 --> 00:50:14,050 Speaker 2: their survival to the Turks, to support by the Turks, 909 00:50:14,060 --> 00:50:17,010 Speaker 2: and they were essentially a kind of Turkish, uh. 910 00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:19,370 Speaker 2: I don't know if you would call it a Turkish asset, 911 00:50:19,449 --> 00:50:23,209 Speaker 2: but a Turkish-backed force that took over Syria. 912 00:50:24,310 --> 00:50:26,810 Speaker 2: And the Turks felt that, you know, they could now 913 00:50:27,429 --> 00:50:30,229 Speaker 2: have a sphere of influence spread into Syria because of 914 00:50:30,229 --> 00:50:34,510 Speaker 2: this movement. The Turks don't have the financial resources to 915 00:50:34,510 --> 00:50:38,909 Speaker 2: rebuild Syria. Syria is devastated, and it's going to require 916 00:50:38,909 --> 00:50:41,109 Speaker 2: many tens of billions of dollars to rebuild it. The 917 00:50:41,110 --> 00:50:45,229 Speaker 2: assets for that, if they're to be available anywhere, it'll 918 00:50:45,229 --> 00:50:47,469 Speaker 2: be from the Gulf, from Qatar, the UAE. 919 00:50:48,010 --> 00:50:52,489 Speaker 2: And Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. And so the leader of Syria, 920 00:50:52,770 --> 00:50:56,129 Speaker 2: Shara realized quickly that in fact, if he wants to 921 00:50:56,129 --> 00:50:59,250 Speaker 2: rebuild Syria, he can no longer just be a Turkish 922 00:50:59,250 --> 00:51:03,229 Speaker 2: kind of uh pawn. He has to develop strong links 923 00:51:03,290 --> 00:51:05,689 Speaker 2: with the Gulf states, and he's developed fairly strong links 924 00:51:05,689 --> 00:51:09,330 Speaker 2: with MBS and it was MBS who prevailed upon President 925 00:51:09,330 --> 00:51:11,969 Speaker 2: Trump to meet with him and to lift the sanctions, 926 00:51:12,090 --> 00:51:17,010 Speaker 2: the financial sanctions on Syria. Uh, and, and that that 927 00:51:17,010 --> 00:51:17,669 Speaker 2: has happened. 928 00:51:18,070 --> 00:51:20,709 Speaker 2: So he, the the the Syrian government is trying to 929 00:51:20,709 --> 00:51:25,790 Speaker 2: chart an independent course between not wanting to be a Turkish, 930 00:51:26,110 --> 00:51:30,350 Speaker 2: you know, dependency nor a Saudi dependency, uh, but try 931 00:51:30,350 --> 00:51:33,469 Speaker 2: to attract also investments and money to rebuild the country. 932 00:51:33,669 --> 00:51:36,310 Speaker 2: That's going to take a very long time. And yes, 933 00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:39,580 Speaker 2: the big tension in Syria or the big divide is, 934 00:51:39,709 --> 00:51:42,089 Speaker 2: are we going to have a strong centralized state? 935 00:51:42,540 --> 00:51:45,020 Speaker 2: Or are we going to have a kind of federated 936 00:51:45,020 --> 00:51:48,070 Speaker 2: situation where the Kurds have their autonomy, the Druze have 937 00:51:48,070 --> 00:51:51,870 Speaker 2: their autonomy, the Alawites have their autonomy in different sections, 938 00:51:51,949 --> 00:51:55,959 Speaker 2: and the Israelis would like the Syrian state to remain 939 00:51:55,959 --> 00:52:01,290 Speaker 2: extremely weak and decentralized, um, and the Turks and the Saudis. 940 00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:05,149 Speaker 2: want a strong centralized state because they feel that's the 941 00:52:05,149 --> 00:52:08,709 Speaker 2: only way to really maintain order and prevent Iran from 942 00:52:08,709 --> 00:52:12,739 Speaker 2: ever coming back into the country, and then also running 943 00:52:12,739 --> 00:52:18,300 Speaker 2: an effective um reconstruction and redevelopment plan for the country. 944 00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:22,639 Speaker 2: And uh so far, the Turks and the Saudis with 945 00:52:22,639 --> 00:52:26,199 Speaker 2: American help and support, um, seem to have the upper hand. 946 00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:29,229 Speaker 2: And the recent attacks against the Kurds seem, you know, 947 00:52:29,310 --> 00:52:30,760 Speaker 2: indicate that the Americans. 948 00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:34,270 Speaker 2: Uh, have been going along with this plan for a 949 00:52:34,270 --> 00:52:38,629 Speaker 2: strong centralized Syrian state rather than a federated or decentralized situa, 950 00:52:38,830 --> 00:52:42,350 Speaker 2: you know, situation. Another source of tension between the Israelis 951 00:52:42,350 --> 00:52:43,070 Speaker 2: and the Americans, by the 952 00:52:43,070 --> 00:52:43,429 Speaker 2: way. 953 00:52:43,669 --> 00:52:46,149 Speaker 1: That's right. Uh, Bernie, I hope you've noticed that in 954 00:52:46,149 --> 00:52:48,709 Speaker 1: the last 25 minutes, I've not mentioned the word Trump 955 00:52:48,709 --> 00:52:49,530 Speaker 1: even once. 956 00:52:51,149 --> 00:52:53,310 Speaker 1: It's a perfect way to end the podcast because you 957 00:52:53,310 --> 00:52:57,790 Speaker 1: began the discussion by talking about how oil, despite Trump's 958 00:52:57,790 --> 00:53:00,989 Speaker 1: designs on Venezuela and so on, is in some ways, 959 00:53:01,060 --> 00:53:04,469 Speaker 1: you know, yesterday's story that with the rise of renewables 960 00:53:04,469 --> 00:53:07,229 Speaker 1: and the glut of supply and the weakening demand from China, 961 00:53:07,750 --> 00:53:11,540 Speaker 1: we probably don't have massive spike in oil in the pipeline. 962 00:53:11,870 --> 00:53:15,070 Speaker 1: So walk us through your thinking and also how Saudi 963 00:53:15,070 --> 00:53:16,409 Speaker 1: Arabia sort of deals with this. 964 00:53:16,870 --> 00:53:19,229 Speaker 2: Yeah, so on, on oil, um. 965 00:53:19,659 --> 00:53:22,939 Speaker 2: I, I think what we're seeing is, as, as, as 966 00:53:22,939 --> 00:53:26,899 Speaker 2: we mentioned, there's definitely a decline, uh, and it's, I 967 00:53:26,899 --> 00:53:30,419 Speaker 2: think it's a secular decline in, in Chinese demand. At 968 00:53:30,419 --> 00:53:34,250 Speaker 2: the moment we're still seeing Chinese demand, um, you know, 969 00:53:34,300 --> 00:53:38,250 Speaker 2: at fairly healthy levels because they're actually building their, uh, 970 00:53:38,260 --> 00:53:41,419 Speaker 2: strategic petroleum reserve. They, they have the largest strategic petroleum 971 00:53:41,419 --> 00:53:43,580 Speaker 2: reserve in the world. I think they want to have 972 00:53:43,580 --> 00:53:46,500 Speaker 2: enough oil for 120 days, which is much more than 973 00:53:46,500 --> 00:53:48,060 Speaker 2: the United States, for instance. 974 00:53:48,419 --> 00:53:52,889 Speaker 2: And that's keeping some demand coming to China. Uh, but 975 00:53:53,020 --> 00:53:55,790 Speaker 2: we're not going to see another boom like we saw 976 00:53:55,790 --> 00:54:00,669 Speaker 2: between 2003, 2004 and 2014, uh, happening again, either in 977 00:54:00,669 --> 00:54:03,509 Speaker 2: China or for that matter in India. So we're looking 978 00:54:03,510 --> 00:54:07,509 Speaker 2: at an oversupplied market. So the way the Saudis, I think, 979 00:54:07,679 --> 00:54:12,069 Speaker 2: would want to deal with an oversupplied market, especially since 980 00:54:12,070 --> 00:54:15,239 Speaker 2: they're not happy at $50 or $60 price of oil, 981 00:54:15,570 --> 00:54:16,889 Speaker 2: is to probably 982 00:54:17,479 --> 00:54:20,879 Speaker 2: Keep increasing production slowly as they have been through this 983 00:54:20,879 --> 00:54:25,879 Speaker 2: OPEC plus uh agreement that they have to drive the 984 00:54:25,879 --> 00:54:29,799 Speaker 2: price low for a for a period of time to 985 00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:34,159 Speaker 2: drive out more expensive uh oil from the market. Here 986 00:54:34,159 --> 00:54:37,879 Speaker 2: I'm talking mainly shale in America and we're seeing some 987 00:54:37,879 --> 00:54:41,359 Speaker 2: of that happening already in the US, um, some people 988 00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:43,919 Speaker 2: just shutting in, uh, oil production. 989 00:54:44,370 --> 00:54:47,259 Speaker 2: And what a low price of oil also does is 990 00:54:47,260 --> 00:54:51,820 Speaker 2: that it stops investments in exploration and development. So what 991 00:54:51,820 --> 00:54:55,500 Speaker 2: you end up having is a decline in supply, and 992 00:54:55,500 --> 00:54:58,409 Speaker 2: then eventually the price rises and the Saudis can take 993 00:54:58,409 --> 00:55:02,469 Speaker 2: advantage of the next, uh, you know, rally of prices, 994 00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:05,860 Speaker 2: and I think that's what we're looking at. So going 995 00:55:05,860 --> 00:55:09,429 Speaker 2: forward we're probably going to see very soft prices in 996 00:55:09,429 --> 00:55:10,719 Speaker 2: the 50 range. 997 00:55:11,090 --> 00:55:14,560 Speaker 2: Um, uh, you know, for many, for several months, probably 998 00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:17,799 Speaker 2: through the end of this year, and then a, a, 999 00:55:17,919 --> 00:55:22,069 Speaker 2: a rallying if a lot of other oil supply, uh, 1000 00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:25,080 Speaker 2: gets driven out by, by, by the low oil prices. 1001 00:55:25,159 --> 00:55:26,659 Speaker 2: That's the kind of Saudi hope. 1002 00:55:27,159 --> 00:55:28,870 Speaker 2: Um, and Saudi play, 1003 00:55:29,550 --> 00:55:33,529 Speaker 1: not, not if Donald Trump can help it. Bernie. I remember, 1004 00:55:33,610 --> 00:55:36,330 Speaker 1: I think this was maybe a decade ago, the very 1005 00:55:36,330 --> 00:55:38,968 Speaker 1: early days of MBS speaking with you, and you were 1006 00:55:38,969 --> 00:55:41,439 Speaker 1: highly present on this thing, or rather MBS was patient 1007 00:55:41,439 --> 00:55:43,709 Speaker 1: on this issue because you told me at that time that. 1008 00:55:44,129 --> 00:55:46,928 Speaker 1: This young gentleman who thinks that he'll be around running 1009 00:55:46,929 --> 00:55:50,009 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia for many, many decades feels that Saudi Arabia 1010 00:55:50,010 --> 00:55:51,659 Speaker 1: will not be able to pump the last barrel of 1011 00:55:51,659 --> 00:55:53,689 Speaker 1: oil because there'll be no demand for it. I remember 1012 00:55:53,689 --> 00:55:56,250 Speaker 1: that very clearly, and, and given what you just said, 1013 00:55:56,290 --> 00:55:58,429 Speaker 1: it sort of resonates back to the fact that MBS, 1014 00:55:58,580 --> 00:56:01,040 Speaker 1: despite the fact being a relatively young person, has a 1015 00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:02,569 Speaker 1: very long game in mind on this issue. 1016 00:56:03,570 --> 00:56:07,439 Speaker 2: For sure, and he also realizes that he has the lowest, uh, 1017 00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:11,060 Speaker 2: you know, production cost of oil, and he wants to 1018 00:56:11,060 --> 00:56:14,419 Speaker 2: be the last barrel, you know, standing, uh, that's ever 1019 00:56:14,419 --> 00:56:17,729 Speaker 2: sold on the market. And, and so that's, that's the, 1020 00:56:17,879 --> 00:56:21,520 Speaker 2: he's playing a long game, um, which is another difference 1021 00:56:21,520 --> 00:56:24,120 Speaker 2: I think with the UAE where they're, they're much less 1022 00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:27,000 Speaker 2: interested in the long game, uh, and want to produce 1023 00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:29,040 Speaker 2: as much as possible as quickly as possible. 1024 00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:32,600 Speaker 1: Well, that's a great note to conclude. Bernie, again, thank 1025 00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:33,659 Speaker 1: you very, very much. 1026 00:56:34,399 --> 00:56:34,620 Speaker 2: Thank 1027 00:56:34,620 --> 00:56:34,949 Speaker 2: you. 1028 00:56:35,709 --> 00:56:37,549 Speaker 1: That was great. Thanks to our listeners as well. Uh, 1029 00:56:37,669 --> 00:56:40,469 Speaker 1: this podcast was produced by Ken Delbridge at Spice Studios. 1030 00:56:40,820 --> 00:56:44,219 Speaker 1: Violet Lee and Daisy Sherma provided additional assistance. Copy time 1031 00:56:44,219 --> 00:56:47,819 Speaker 1: is for information only and does not constitute any training recommendation. 1032 00:56:48,179 --> 00:56:51,388 Speaker 1: All 170 episodes of the podcast are available on YouTube 1033 00:56:51,590 --> 00:56:54,870 Speaker 1: and on all major podcast platforms including Apple and Spotify. 1034 00:56:55,189 --> 00:56:58,149 Speaker 1: For our research content and webinars, you can find them 1035 00:56:58,149 --> 00:57:01,330 Speaker 1: all by Googling DBS Research Library. Have a great day.