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Speaker 1: Hello, this is Ce Time, a podcast series on markets

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Speaker 1: and economies from DBS Group Research. I'm Taimurbek, Chief economist,

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Speaker 1: welcoming you to our 168th episode. This is our year ender. Today,

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Speaker 1: we're welcoming back Doctor Kumal Shri Kumar, president of Shri

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Speaker 1: Kumar Global Strategies, based in Santa Monica, California. Shri is

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Speaker 1: a senior fellow at the Milken Institute and previously spent

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Speaker 1: over two decades with the trust company of the West

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Speaker 1: or TCW.

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Speaker 1: It is now a tradition of Copy time that I

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Speaker 1: review the year with Shri and then look forward to

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Speaker 1: the next year. But before I bring Sri into the conversation,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to read a few sentences from the transcript

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Speaker 1: of our podcast from last year. I think it's really,

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Speaker 1: really good context.

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Speaker 1: Uh, first, on cryptos, Shrie says, I'm very old fashioned,

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Speaker 1: so I would like to explain my bias with respect

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Speaker 1: to crypto. Even when the Federal Reserve policy is something

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Speaker 1: that I do not like, I still think money should

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Speaker 1: be created by a central authority. I need to be

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Speaker 1: able to touch it. I need to be able to

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Speaker 1: feel it. And so I'm not a believer in crypto,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not going to talk in terms of what

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Speaker 1: it might do. Yes, they can get a jump up

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Speaker 1: due to Trump policies, but I'll be really watching to

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Speaker 1: see how far the runup goes.

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Speaker 1: Good one, right? Number 2, on gold. I'm a big fan,

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Speaker 1: and the reason is that currencies are being debased right now.

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Speaker 1: All paper currencies are losing value because everybody is misusing

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Speaker 1: the currency issuance ability. So I think gold has a

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Speaker 1: significant upward move still. Mind you, December 2024, this discussion.

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Speaker 1: And finally on number 3.

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Speaker 1: On the Fed balance sheet, you would think that they

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Speaker 1: should take it back to pre-COVID level of $4 trillion

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Speaker 1: if not the Lehman Brothers level of $800 billion but

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Speaker 1: no chance. It's not going to go anywhere there. I

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Speaker 1: think you'll be lucky if it goes to US dollar

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Speaker 1: $6.5 trillion. Shri, a warm welcome back to Kobe time.

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Speaker 1: What's the Fed balance sheet level today?

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Speaker 2: It's somewhere in the range of about 6.7 trillion today,

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Speaker 2: and it is in the process of going up because

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Speaker 2: they have just instituted quantitative easing again.

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Speaker 1: There you go. So I think we're not going to

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Speaker 1: be lucky to see it go to 6.5 or below that. So, uh, Shri, uh,

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Speaker 1: it was a delight to have you last December. I'm

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Speaker 1: so grateful that you have made the time to do

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Speaker 1: it again with us this year. So let's begin.

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Speaker 1: With you assessing 2025, what surprised you on the upside

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Speaker 1: and what surprised you on the downside in the economy

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Speaker 1: and markets?

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Speaker 2: What surprised me on the upside, uh, Tamur, was the

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Speaker 2: fact that the economy continued to remain very strong despite

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Speaker 2: the tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Um, and that is, in a sense, not totally surprising.

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Speaker 2: Tariff impact happens to be spread over time. So I

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Speaker 2: think it is more a 2026 event rather than 2025 event,

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Speaker 2: but you asked me for what surprised me. On the upside,

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Speaker 2: that is what was surprising.

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Speaker 2: Um, what was not surprising was the downward impact of

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Speaker 2: the policies, both the Trump policies, as well as what

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Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve has been doing.

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Speaker 2: The fact that inflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed's target.

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Speaker 2: And the fact that the dollar has weakened, and you

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Speaker 2: referred to the fact that the gold has shot up,

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Speaker 2: and as of this week, beginning of the week, we

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Speaker 2: still have the gold trying to get to a new record,

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Speaker 2: and silver has risen more than 100% over the last year.

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Speaker 2: So I think you're going to see more of that happening,

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Speaker 2: and that is not a surprise at all on that side.

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Speaker 1: Shri, in terms of US fiscal position, I'm estimating a

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Speaker 1: slight improvement in 2025/2024 for two reasons. One is, of course,

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Speaker 1: the big jump in tariff revenue, and second is the

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Speaker 1: big pickup in personal income tax returns, thanks to the

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Speaker 1: booming stock market. Expenditure side, hardly any correction, but those

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Speaker 1: things are helping the deficit to come down a tad.

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Speaker 1: So by my estimate, 6.8% last year, perhaps 6.5% this year.

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Speaker 1: Do you see this as a positive development and does

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Speaker 1: it make you constructive for 2026 or not really?

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Speaker 2: Uh, Taymor, uh once again, I would say it is

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Speaker 2: a matter of timing. You referred to the fact that

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Speaker 2: expenditures have not been cut back. It's only the revenues

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Speaker 2: which have come in.

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Speaker 2: If the US Supreme Court disallows the tariffs, and it's

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Speaker 2: a high likelihood that that would happen,

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Speaker 2: Then the Trump administration very reluctantly it's preparing to give

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Speaker 2: them back, give the uh tariff revenue back to the people,

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Speaker 2: the US companies who paid them.

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Speaker 2: Costco, which is a giant retailer in the United States,

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Speaker 2: has already sued the Trump administration, wanting to get its tariff,

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Speaker 2: its part of the tariff revenue back.

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Speaker 2: So when you go into 2026, I think the expenditure,

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Speaker 2: as you said, is not cut back. It's not going

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Speaker 2: to cut back, especially before the midterm elections in November

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Speaker 2: of next year. On the other hand, revenues are going

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Speaker 2: to be coming down if they have to give up

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Speaker 2: some of the tax revenues.

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Speaker 2: So, the fiscal deficit, 6.8% of GDP to 6.5% of GDP.

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Speaker 2: If anything, I would say the movement would be towards 7%

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Speaker 2: of GDP for 2026.

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Speaker 1: Oh boy, OK. I'll have to keep that in mind

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Speaker 1: when we talk about the fixed income market outlook. Um, Xu,

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Speaker 1: what about the fact that while a lot of the

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Speaker 1: discussion is about the big run up in the US

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Speaker 1: stock market, 2025 was also characterized by very strong run

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Speaker 1: up in European stocks, Chinese stocks, even where I live

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Speaker 1: in Singapore, we're having a banner year. So by and large,

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Speaker 1: equity markets have done very well in 2025, even outside

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Speaker 1: the US. Was that a surprise to you?

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Speaker 2: Uh, it was somewhat of a surprise, yes. I thought the, uh,

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Speaker 2: what was happening in the inflation side, what was happening

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Speaker 2: with the fiscal deficit would be reflected in both the

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Speaker 2: bond and equity markets. But equities have continued to rise,

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Speaker 2: as you mentioned. And a big part of it, there

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Speaker 2: are two reasons I would give to you. One is

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Speaker 2: that the presence of artificial intelligence and people thinking that

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Speaker 2: it is going to be panacea, manna from heaven.

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Speaker 2: And everything would be changed because of AI.

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Speaker 2: That has given rise to a big chunk of the

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Speaker 2: upward movement in equity prices. Second, the Federal Reserve has

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Speaker 2: been very easygoing in its policy. And every time before

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Speaker 2: the meeting, the markets are wondering whether the Fed is

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Speaker 2: going to cut again, and when the expectation is that

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Speaker 2: it will, the market goes up even further. So, I

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Speaker 2: would say the AI related push up has helped.

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Speaker 2: And some of the, uh, the Fed, um, expecting to

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Speaker 2: ease is the second factor. Now, some managers are saying

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Speaker 2: you should be now moving away from the Magnificent Seven,

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Speaker 2: the high tech stocks, and go to the run of

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Speaker 2: the milk companies.

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Speaker 2: That may yet happen, but the big issue so far

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Speaker 2: has come from the technology side, rather than from the

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Speaker 2: entire stock market.

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Speaker 1: Right, Tri, just to share with you that in our

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Speaker 1: part of the world, particularly around the Chinese uh tech

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Speaker 1: uh pipeline, there's been a lot of exciting stories this year.

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Speaker 1: Usually we hear these exciting stories when we talk about

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Speaker 1: startups coming out from Silicon Valley.

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Speaker 1: But now, whether it's the AI bandwagon or the biomedical

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Speaker 1: area or manufacturing automation, lots of interesting market policing stories

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Speaker 1: coming out of China, coming out of Southeast Asia, and

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Speaker 1: that is also capturing investors' imagination to some extent. So,

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Speaker 1: I would have been really worried if the regional stock

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Speaker 1: market runup was entirely a beta to data centers and

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Speaker 1: semiconductor manufacturing, because I think then that would be a

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Speaker 1: highly correlated trade visa with the US.

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Speaker 1: I have slightly more constructive look on our outlook on

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Speaker 1: Asia simply because I feel that there might be just

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Speaker 1: might be a broader story than just AI pushing up

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Speaker 1: the stock markets, but fingers crossed on that, I think

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Speaker 1: next year we'll have a proper stress test of that hypothesis. Shri,

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Speaker 1: on the US Fed.

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Speaker 1: Uh, this year, I have never in my life seen

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Speaker 1: a chief executive of a nation take these sort of very,

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Speaker 1: very politicized actions against an independent body, whether it is

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Speaker 1: the repeated, you know, threatened threats to fire Trump or

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Speaker 1: other Fed officials, investigations, and this entire big circus that

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Speaker 1: we have going on on who should be the next

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Speaker 1: Fed chair.

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Speaker 1: Actually, my surprise for the year, and I want to

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Speaker 1: hear your view on this, is that the market has

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Speaker 1: not reacted more adversely to all the developments we have

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Speaker 1: had with respect to Fed independence this year. Um, I

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Speaker 1: know you have always been, you know, sort of critical

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Speaker 1: of the Fed, but I'm also, I believe I'm correct

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Speaker 1: in saying that you are also a firm believer in

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Speaker 1: the sanctity of Fed independence. How is that the market not, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, reacting very poorly to what's been going on

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Speaker 1: with respect to Fed independence?

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Speaker 2: Those are great questions, Taimur. I would respond to you

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Speaker 2: by saying, yes, you are correct in your um

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Speaker 2: Evaluation of both my positions.

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Speaker 2: I do believe that uh the Fed has made serious errors,

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Speaker 2: but I also believe that they should remain independent and

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Speaker 2: the president should not interfere with it.

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Speaker 2: We have had presidents in the past who have interfered

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Speaker 2: with the Fed and quite actively.

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Speaker 2: The best known examples are Lyndon Baines Johnson during his presidency.

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Speaker 2: He was known, essentially, he was a very tall man,

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Speaker 2: so he would go and essentially, supposedly collar the Fed

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Speaker 2: chairman by his jacket and say, tell him what it

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Speaker 2: is that he wanted him to do next at the meeting.

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Speaker 2: Second one was Richard Nixon, who repeatedly bullied uh Fed

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Speaker 2: Chairman Arthur Burns during the 1970s, which is what gave

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Speaker 2: rise to the stagflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s.

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Speaker 2: The difference with the current situation is those two presidents

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Speaker 2: did that behind closed doors. You never got to see them.

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Speaker 2: Those two presidents did not call the Fed chairman all

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Speaker 2: kinds of names, stupid, numbskull, various other things to, to

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Speaker 2: be able to characterize them. This president does. So that

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Speaker 2: is why it is very unusual that the president does it.

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Speaker 2: Second part of your question, why isn't the stock market

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Speaker 2: upset about it? Stock market is doing very well, thank you,

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Speaker 2: because the president's badgering is for lower interest rates.

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Speaker 2: The stock market also wants lower interest rates.

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Speaker 2: So there is a meeting of the minds between the

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Speaker 2: stock market and the president.

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Speaker 2: The stock market investors don't care what nicknames he uses,

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Speaker 2: what epithets he uses for the Fed chairman, as long

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Speaker 2: as both of them are looking for lower interest rates.

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Speaker 2: That is the story so far.

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Speaker 2: My concern, and it is already starting to manifest itself,

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Speaker 2: is that the stock market will stop being so sanguine.

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Speaker 2: If the long end of the Treasury yield curve starts

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Speaker 2: to rise.

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Speaker 2: And over the last week, we have had almost a

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Speaker 2: 10 basis point rise in the 10-year, 2 to 10-year

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Speaker 2: yield spread from about 57 to 68 basis points uh

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Speaker 2: at the close of market on Monday.

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Speaker 2: Why is that happening? It is happening because the markets

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Speaker 2: are saying these kinds of pressures are going to increase

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Speaker 2: inflationary expectations.

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Speaker 2: They have cut interest rates 3 times in a row.

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Speaker 2: The president has clearly indicated his next Fed chairman, whoever

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Speaker 2: he or she may be, it looks like it'll be

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Speaker 2: a man. So let's say whoever he may be.

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Speaker 2: Has to reduce interest rates. I've never seen a president

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Speaker 2: come out and say that blatantly. I'm going to nominate

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Speaker 2: a person to reduce interest rates.

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Speaker 2: So when it is that apparent, and the next Fed

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Speaker 2: chairman actually complies with it, that's when I think the

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Speaker 2: yield curve is going to increase very sharply, and that's

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Speaker 2: what worries me about the market for 2026.

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Speaker 1: Um, what about the fact that this huge amount of

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Speaker 1: volatility around tariffs, um, hasn't yet had a major impact

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Speaker 1: on earnings. Uh, I think you said at the very

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Speaker 1: beginning of this conversation, this is more of a 2026

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Speaker 1: story than 2025, but at that time you were referring

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Speaker 1: in the context of inflation. But is it the same

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Speaker 1: also for corporate balance sheet, the impact of tariff? It's

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Speaker 1: more of a 206 phenomenon.

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Speaker 2: Uh, it, it is also going to be more of

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Speaker 2: a 26 phenomenon, and I'll tell you why. Initially, some

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Speaker 2: companies have taken a hit on their profit margins. They

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Speaker 2: have increased the tariff, but then they have gone and

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Speaker 2: they have taken it on their balance sheet, their income statement,

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Speaker 2: rather than pass it on to the consumer. That is

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Speaker 2: partially done.

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Speaker 2: When you go into 2026, it is going to be

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Speaker 2: more of a tussle, how you deal with it. Some

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Speaker 2: companies have also got um an exemption from the tariffs

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Speaker 2: in some cases, and they have also benefited from it.

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Speaker 2: Other companies are selling mostly to US consumers, and they

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Speaker 2: don't have to worry about tariffs. So you have various

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Speaker 2: reasons why it is not fully showing up in the

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Speaker 2: corporate income statements, but I think it will become more

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Speaker 2: apparent in 2026 when you cannot have those kinds of

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Speaker 2: ways to protect yourself in a company.

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Speaker 1: Shri, the additional reason why we have seen corporate earnings

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Speaker 1: pretty uh holding up pretty well is because individual spending,

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Speaker 1: retail spending has been pretty robust this year. And I

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Speaker 1: am flummoxed by that because when I look at Michigan

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Speaker 1: survey of consumer sentiment, it's very poor. But when I

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Speaker 1: look at retail sales data, it's very good. How does

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Speaker 1: one reconcile these two seemingly opposite data trends?

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Speaker 2: It's completely understandable to me, and I'll tell you why.

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Speaker 2: If you think about the consumer as if he or

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Speaker 2: she is one composite human being, then your point is

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Speaker 2: very valid.

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Speaker 2: But they are not. You have people who are at

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Speaker 2: the low end of the income scale, there are people

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Speaker 2: at the uh higher end of the income scale.

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Speaker 2: The people at the higher end of the income scale

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Speaker 2: are doing fantastic. Inflation doesn't bother them. The stock market

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Speaker 2: has gone up way more than inflation has come out,

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Speaker 2: so they are actually well off in real or inflation

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Speaker 2: adjusted terms, and they are contributing to a big part

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Speaker 2: of the spending that is showing up in survey after survey. However,

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Speaker 2: if you were low or a middle income worker,

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Speaker 2: You find that in your case, inflation is more important

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Speaker 2: because you don't, you can't afford to invest in the

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Speaker 2: stock market, you are depending on interest income, that is

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Speaker 2: not sufficient to offset the impact of inflation, and that

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Speaker 2: is why you see lower income people complaining about it,

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Speaker 2: whereas the higher income people do not. And that's why

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Speaker 2: you still have retail sales continuing to do relatively well,

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Speaker 2: week after week in recent weeks.

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Speaker 1: Shri, that would suggest that there are adverse political implications

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Speaker 1: for the sentiment data, which will not be mitigated by

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Speaker 1: the strong retail sales data.

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Speaker 2: That is correct. That is true, and that is why

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Speaker 2: you see that in President Trump's popularity ratings, it has

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Speaker 2: come down to low level, the, the so-called MAGA movement,

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Speaker 2: Make America Great Again movement.

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Speaker 2: It is splitting up. There are, there is more opposition

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Speaker 2: within that movement. All of that is reflective of the

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Speaker 2: fact that there are more poor, low income and middle

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Speaker 2: income people in the country than there are high income people.

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Speaker 2: And in a democracy, it's a total number that counts,

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Speaker 2: and these people are going to decide what happens in

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Speaker 2: November 2026. And so far it does not look good

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Speaker 2: for the president of the Republican Party, and if they

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Speaker 2: lose the House in the November elections, it is going

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Speaker 2: to be a big loss for them.

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Speaker 1: That's right. Now, to your point about cost of living

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Speaker 1: being a major issue going into 2026, what's your sense

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Speaker 1: of inflation, Shri? Uh, energy prices are flat. Uh, electricity,

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Speaker 1: maybe you could, uh, you could tell us a little

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Speaker 1: bit about where that's happening in the US.

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Speaker 1: But overall, you know, oil and gas seem to be

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Speaker 1: fairly flat. Food prices seem to be flat, but still,

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Speaker 1: we are not seeing no meaningful trend toward inflation heading

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Speaker 1: toward 2%. Do you see that trend persisting through 2026?

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Speaker 2: I do see the trend persisting because where the inflation

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Speaker 2: is coming from services, it is not the goods that

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Speaker 2: are contributing mainly, but services.

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Speaker 2: Car services, haircuts, employing people in the construction industry, housing industry,

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Speaker 2: those costs have gone up significantly, and people feel it.

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Speaker 2: And so, you cannot live with goods alone. You have

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Speaker 2: to pay for services as well, and they are taking

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Speaker 2: a huge chunk of the upward movement in prices.

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Speaker 2: If that were not the case, you wouldn't have consumer

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Speaker 2: sentiment being so low.

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Speaker 2: And also explaining that as far as the president is concerned,

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Speaker 2: why it has brought down his popularity, that is also

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Speaker 2: because people feel inflation, and they are saying in survey

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Speaker 2: after survey, that's what concerns them the most.

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Speaker 1: Why is service inflation high?

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Speaker 2: Service inflation is high because it does not have competition.

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Speaker 2: In other words, this is what we call in economics

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Speaker 2: as a non-tradable good, as opposed to a tradable good.

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Speaker 2: If you want to buy a good in the United

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Speaker 2: States and there's a competition, if it is a car,

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Speaker 2: you don't have to buy a US car, you can

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Speaker 2: buy a foreign car.

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Speaker 2: On the, if you want um clothing, you can buy

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Speaker 2: US made clothing, or you can make fine clothing which

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Speaker 2: comes to the United States from China or elsewhere.

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Speaker 2: However, if you want to get a haircut,

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Speaker 2: That those prices are going up. Construction workers, they, you

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Speaker 2: cannot simply import them from abroad, especially now with restricted

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Speaker 2: immigration under this administration. That is also contributing to a

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Speaker 2: big increase in labor costs, and that is translating itself

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Speaker 2: into price inflation.

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Speaker 2: Uh, um, average hourly earnings, we haven't had these numbers

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Speaker 2: show up for a couple of months now because of

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Speaker 2: the federal, uh, shutdown. But from what we can guess,

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Speaker 2: they seem to be running at about 3.8% year on year.

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Speaker 2: And that wage inflation is still too high to bring

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Speaker 2: inflation down overall.

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Speaker 1: OK, that's a perfect segue into your sense of the

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Speaker 1: labor market. We're getting conflicting signals, Shri. So on one hand,

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Speaker 1: the immigration tightness that you just talked about should lead

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Speaker 1: to a tightening of blue collar labor supply, and that

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Speaker 1: should lead to higher wages, which technically is good news,

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Speaker 1: but also lead to higher inflation, which you just flagged.

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Speaker 1: But then there's this whole narrative around white collar jobs

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Speaker 1: that the AI disruption is going to create a lot

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Speaker 1: of job losses there. It's not quite in the data,

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Speaker 1: but anecdotally, we see here and there some tech company

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Speaker 1: making some big lofty announcements about how they don't need

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Speaker 1: additional workers and so on. What do you make of

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Speaker 1: all this?

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Speaker 2: I think there is clearly a loss of job opportunities

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Speaker 2: due to AI.

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Speaker 2: And what we are hearing is that it is affecting

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Speaker 2: the younger population, people who are entering the labor force,

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Speaker 2: who may be in the, let's say, early to mid-twenties,

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Speaker 2: and they are entering the labor force. They find very

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Speaker 2: many of them cannot face a competition from artificial intelligence.

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Speaker 2: And if you are looking for a position, for instance,

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Speaker 2: as a legal assistant, or information technology assistant, those kinds

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Speaker 2: of jobs have been taken away, taken away from human

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Speaker 2: beings and take, and they've gone to machines to do instead.

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Speaker 2: So that area is, I think, affected, but what is

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Speaker 2: going to happen is if the people adjust to it.

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Speaker 2: And develop skills which can be usable in the new economy,

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Speaker 2: it is still going to be very positive. Remember,

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Speaker 2: We all used to think in the late 1990s when

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Speaker 2: the dot com boom took place.

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Speaker 2: That that was going to be sufficient to throw a

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Speaker 2: lot of people out of jobs, but that wasn't the case.

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Speaker 2: We wanted people who had those skills to be hired

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Speaker 2: and to do the job.

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Speaker 2: So I think similarly,

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Speaker 2: Uh, the characteristics of the jobs, the kinds of jobs

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Speaker 2: are going to, uh, change, but this is not going

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Speaker 2: to be mass unemployment coming as a result of that.

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Speaker 2: Let me go on to one other point which you

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Speaker 2: didn't ask, but which may be relevant here. Some people think,

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Speaker 2: and in fact, I was, uh, listening to Steven Myan, uh,

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Speaker 2: the president's nominee to the board of governors speak today.

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Speaker 2: And his point is that AI is going to be

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Speaker 2: so fantastic. Productivity is going to increase so much that

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Speaker 2: inflation is going to come down. Therefore, you can lower

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Speaker 2: interest rates substantially from current levels.

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Speaker 2: That is simply not going to be the case.

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Speaker 2: If you're going to be reducing

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Speaker 2: Uh, if you think you can reduce inflation there, what

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Speaker 2: about the higher cost of electricity for the AI AI case?

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Speaker 2: Who's going to pay for it? It is going to be,

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Speaker 2: so you're going to see a change, a shift in

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Speaker 2: where the inflation comes from. It is no longer coming

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Speaker 2: from oil or natural gas, but it is going to

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Speaker 2: come from electricity.

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Speaker 2: Houses are still scarce, home prices are high, affordability is low.

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Speaker 2: That is again frustrating a lot of workers. So that

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Speaker 2: is where I think uh future inflation is going to come,

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Speaker 2: even with AI being present very much in our lives.

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Speaker 1: Shri, I also find it interesting that somebody like Myan

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Speaker 1: would make an argument like that while ignoring the fact

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Speaker 1: that if indeed there's a productivity miracle around AI, it

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Speaker 1: would mean that it would raise return on capital. And

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Speaker 1: if the return on capital goes up, that means equilibrium

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Speaker 1: interest rate goes up. It's a good thing, except from

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Speaker 1: a fiscal perspective. There are no free lunches.

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Speaker 1: Higher productivity, higher rate of return on capital means higher

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Speaker 1: interest rate, not lower interest rate. So we'll see how

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Speaker 1: that basic Econ 101 maximum can be defined under the

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Speaker 1: Myran hypothesis. Exactly, yeah, I, I want to talk to

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Speaker 1: you about a couple of asset classes, particularly with respect

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Speaker 1: to credit, both public credit and private credit. Corporate bond

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Speaker 1: spreads are at record narrows.

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Speaker 1: Uh, and we're seeing a lot of financial market intermediation

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Speaker 1: taking place in the private market, including all the AI

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Speaker 1: stuff that we're talking about, a lot of debt raised

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Speaker 1: in the private market, far more opaque than,

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Speaker 1: Uh, what a public sector, uh, or publicly available data

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Speaker 1: would suggest. So, comment on the debt creation that is

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Speaker 1: happening on the private side. I think you and I

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Speaker 1: are very much on the same page as far as

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Speaker 1: the public debt. You've talked about high 6%, perhaps even 7%

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Speaker 1: deficit likely risk of long-term interest rates going up. So

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Speaker 1: put aside the public side, comment on the private side

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Speaker 1: for a moment.

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Speaker 2: Private side, as you said, the spreads are very, very low.

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Speaker 2: The high yield market does not give you much higher

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Speaker 2: return than if you go into treasuries or in the

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Speaker 2: investment grade market.

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Speaker 2: And I think the risk is mispriced, and the reason

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Speaker 2: it is mispriced is because credit is readily available. The

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Speaker 2: interest rates are very low.

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Speaker 2: And if contrary to what the Federal Reserve has been saying,

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Speaker 2: I think the natural rate of interest, or RTA as

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Speaker 2: they call it, which does not stimulate the economy or

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Speaker 2: bring it down, it's kind of neutral rate.

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Speaker 2: is not lower than where it is. I think it

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Speaker 2: should be much higher than where they are. In other words,

437
00:25:05,959 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 2: with the fiscal deficit being so high, it also has

438
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,540
Speaker 2: taken up our star or the natural rate of interest.

439
00:25:14,079 --> 00:25:18,139
Speaker 2: What that tells me is that you are nowhere close

440
00:25:18,140 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 2: to reaching equilibrium, and that is also causing a problem

441
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,199
Speaker 2: here on the high yield side.

442
00:25:24,619 --> 00:25:27,979
Speaker 2: Now, if they were, eventually, if they are forced to

443
00:25:27,979 --> 00:25:31,410
Speaker 2: increase interest rates in 2026, which I see as a

444
00:25:31,410 --> 00:25:37,900
Speaker 2: distinct possibility, despite the president's statements, because the yield curve

445
00:25:37,900 --> 00:25:41,300
Speaker 2: is going to steepen substantially, that is when you have

446
00:25:41,300 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 2: problems on the non-investment grade side, because there, the spread

447
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 2: is going to widen even more.

448
00:25:49,180 --> 00:25:52,060
Speaker 2: Than the widening from 2 to 10 on the US

449
00:25:52,060 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 2: Treasury side. Does that make sense?

450
00:25:54,219 --> 00:25:57,979
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Um, and, and what about the stuff

451
00:25:57,979 --> 00:26:00,698
Speaker 1: that we can't even tell from the corporate spreads, the

452
00:26:00,699 --> 00:26:03,849
Speaker 1: private debt stuff? Uh, I am, especially, you know, you

453
00:26:03,849 --> 00:26:06,859
Speaker 1: live in California, huge amount of money raised in California,

454
00:26:06,979 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: both in the northern and southern part of the state

455
00:26:09,339 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 1: to finance, uh, all sorts of, you know.

456
00:26:13,224 --> 00:26:16,625
Speaker 1: Venture capital into AI space, and it's not just a

457
00:26:16,625 --> 00:26:19,863
Speaker 1: California phenomenon. I've talked to Silicon Valley investors. They say that,

458
00:26:19,905 --> 00:26:21,864
Speaker 1: you know, whether it is from the Middle East, or

459
00:26:21,864 --> 00:26:25,305
Speaker 1: Japan or Europe, investors are lining up very much like

460
00:26:25,305 --> 00:26:30,375
Speaker 1: the 2005s when people couldn't get enough of subprime investment products.

461
00:26:30,474 --> 00:26:33,984
Speaker 1: Nobody can get enough of AI related investments, and a

462
00:26:33,984 --> 00:26:36,284
Speaker 1: lot of it is now financed in the private space.

463
00:26:36,584 --> 00:26:38,625
Speaker 1: I personally don't have a very good handle simply because

464
00:26:38,625 --> 00:26:41,464
Speaker 1: I can't find a lot of data. What's your sensory?

465
00:26:42,420 --> 00:26:44,819
Speaker 2: My sense of it is, yes, there is a lot

466
00:26:44,819 --> 00:26:47,599
Speaker 2: of credit that is in fact available.

467
00:26:48,619 --> 00:26:52,170
Speaker 2: And you make a good comparison with 2005.

468
00:26:52,949 --> 00:26:56,910
Speaker 2: Uh, if you recall, um, Raghuram Rajan, who again, you

469
00:26:56,910 --> 00:27:00,630
Speaker 2: were in the IMF International Monetary Fund as well, and

470
00:27:00,630 --> 00:27:03,069
Speaker 2: he was then the chief economist, and he says that

471
00:27:03,069 --> 00:27:04,349
Speaker 2: it's a crisis brewing.

472
00:27:05,209 --> 00:27:07,579
Speaker 2: He was just a bit too early. He said that

473
00:27:07,579 --> 00:27:11,380
Speaker 2: in 2005, it was 3 more years before it happened.

474
00:27:12,380 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: Larry Summers called him a financial Luddite for having mentioned

475
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,938
Speaker 2: that he didn't see any crisis take place.

476
00:27:19,849 --> 00:27:25,170
Speaker 2: So, very well educated, well-meaning people made serious mistakes in

477
00:27:25,170 --> 00:27:29,209
Speaker 2: forecasting in the middle of the 2000s, in the middle

478
00:27:29,209 --> 00:27:29,989
Speaker 2: of the decade.

479
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,880
Speaker 2: I, I am worried that, that we are reaching a

480
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:40,099
Speaker 2: similar stage now. 2008 was much worse than 2000, 2001,

481
00:27:40,239 --> 00:27:44,319
Speaker 2: as we know, the 2008 crisis was much greater. And

482
00:27:44,319 --> 00:27:49,379
Speaker 2: I'm thinking that the 2026 crisis may be somewhere between

483
00:27:50,079 --> 00:27:53,959
Speaker 2: the severity of 2000 and the severity of 2008. It's

484
00:27:53,959 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 2: not going to be as mild as 2000 was.

485
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,540
Speaker 2: Not as terrible as 2008, but somewhere in the middle.

486
00:28:01,319 --> 00:28:06,050
Speaker 2: And so that is my worry. October of 2007, by

487
00:28:06,050 --> 00:28:07,650
Speaker 2: the way, I wrote a report.

488
00:28:08,569 --> 00:28:11,290
Speaker 2: Saying that we are at the verge of a recession.

489
00:28:12,670 --> 00:28:15,459
Speaker 2: And I was called a fear monger, and the reason

490
00:28:15,459 --> 00:28:19,479
Speaker 2: was the S&P 500 in October 2007 had reached an

491
00:28:19,479 --> 00:28:20,339
Speaker 2: all-time record.

492
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,839
Speaker 2: When the stock market has hit a record, how can

493
00:28:23,839 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 2: you look for a crisis? Well, that's what happens at

494
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,199
Speaker 2: the top of a mountain, and you then go down

495
00:28:30,199 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 2: the precipice afterwards, if the mountain doesn't continue at that

496
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:34,599
Speaker 2: same level.

497
00:28:35,729 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 2: So even though you have a lot of promising signs,

498
00:28:39,050 --> 00:28:42,709
Speaker 2: you have so many risk-related factors that are showing up

499
00:28:43,170 --> 00:28:48,390
Speaker 2: that 2026 worries me, and that in turn extends into

500
00:28:48,390 --> 00:28:53,130
Speaker 2: high yield credit, and it extends also into, particularly into

501
00:28:53,130 --> 00:28:54,609
Speaker 2: the private debt space.

502
00:28:56,459 --> 00:28:58,910
Speaker 1: Um, you know, I mean, just in the last couple

503
00:28:58,910 --> 00:29:01,030
Speaker 1: of weeks, some of the big deals that are taking

504
00:29:01,030 --> 00:29:03,670
Speaker 1: place in the US, in the media space, in the

505
00:29:03,670 --> 00:29:08,479
Speaker 1: tech space, and, and these numbers are so exceptionally large,

506
00:29:08,579 --> 00:29:12,099
Speaker 1: 30 billion, 60 billion, 100 billion, and it seems like

507
00:29:12,099 --> 00:29:15,670
Speaker 1: there's never any shortage of interest from investors or financial

508
00:29:15,670 --> 00:29:19,589
Speaker 1: firms who can raise this money. So to your point

509
00:29:19,589 --> 00:29:22,750
Speaker 1: that the magnitude of this is of course unprecedented.

510
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,170
Speaker 1: But maybe not as bad as 008, uh, simply because

511
00:29:26,170 --> 00:29:30,010
Speaker 1: the banks are not at the core of vulnerability and

512
00:29:30,010 --> 00:29:33,770
Speaker 1: typically a global financial crisis has to be centered around

513
00:29:33,770 --> 00:29:37,180
Speaker 1: banks and the propagation of shock then becomes very, very severe.

514
00:29:38,030 --> 00:29:39,609
Speaker 2: Uh, you made a very good point, by the way.

515
00:29:39,689 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 2: I'm sorry to interrupt you might just let's not forget it.

516
00:29:42,890 --> 00:29:46,930
Speaker 2: You made an excellent point about the amount of investments

517
00:29:46,930 --> 00:29:49,650
Speaker 2: that are going into AI and um.

518
00:29:50,300 --> 00:29:52,829
Speaker 2: I think a good part of that investment is going

519
00:29:52,829 --> 00:29:55,869
Speaker 2: to be non-productive, meaning it is not going to have

520
00:29:55,869 --> 00:29:58,949
Speaker 2: a good rate of return, but the cash has gone

521
00:29:58,949 --> 00:30:00,209
Speaker 2: into those investments.

522
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,359
Speaker 2: And you're going to see a whole lot of failures

523
00:30:03,359 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 2: in AI.

524
00:30:04,839 --> 00:30:09,300
Speaker 2: Just as in 2000, when you said in 1999 rather,

525
00:30:09,430 --> 00:30:13,189
Speaker 2: if you said anything, you start a dotcom company, I'm

526
00:30:13,189 --> 00:30:15,550
Speaker 2: ready to give you money because your company has a

527
00:30:15,550 --> 00:30:16,589
Speaker 2: dotcom after it.

528
00:30:17,439 --> 00:30:20,359
Speaker 2: And many of those companies did not survive. That doesn't

529
00:30:20,359 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 2: mean .com is bad. It just means all of them

530
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,209
Speaker 2: are not going to survive. We are reaching a similar

531
00:30:27,209 --> 00:30:31,260
Speaker 2: situation today. Money is being poured into anything dealing with AI,

532
00:30:31,719 --> 00:30:35,319
Speaker 2: and as you mentioned, money flows from all over the

533
00:30:35,319 --> 00:30:36,839
Speaker 2: world into Silicon Valley.

534
00:30:37,750 --> 00:30:41,069
Speaker 2: And a whole number of investors are going to be frustrated.

535
00:30:43,079 --> 00:30:45,530
Speaker 1: Absolutely. So I want to just go back to that

536
00:30:45,530 --> 00:30:48,329
Speaker 1: point that you made because that's a pretty substantive one,

537
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,489
Speaker 1: that if indeed we see a big selloff in 26.

538
00:30:51,839 --> 00:30:54,650
Speaker 1: The fallout will be more severe than the dot com,

539
00:30:54,930 --> 00:30:59,430
Speaker 1: but not as severe as the 008 global financial crisis.

540
00:30:59,689 --> 00:31:02,290
Speaker 1: So let's first talk about why it'll be more severe.

541
00:31:02,410 --> 00:31:05,530
Speaker 1: I think I, you've already alluded to that, the magnitude

542
00:31:05,530 --> 00:31:08,130
Speaker 1: of investment and so on. So, I would rather actually

543
00:31:08,130 --> 00:31:09,689
Speaker 1: focus on the second part, which is that it will

544
00:31:09,689 --> 00:31:13,209
Speaker 1: not be as severe as 08. Is it because, as

545
00:31:13,209 --> 00:31:15,250
Speaker 1: I was saying at the very end, because the banks

546
00:31:15,250 --> 00:31:16,449
Speaker 1: are not at the center of this?

547
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,319
Speaker 2: Um, Banks are not at the center of this. That

548
00:31:20,319 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 2: is one reason why it may not be as severe

549
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:23,839
Speaker 2: as 2008.

550
00:31:25,050 --> 00:31:30,250
Speaker 2: The second was there were lots of errors in policymaking

551
00:31:30,250 --> 00:31:31,489
Speaker 2: during 2008.

552
00:31:32,270 --> 00:31:36,250
Speaker 2: Um, Ben Bernanke, who was the chairman of the Federal Reserve,

553
00:31:36,989 --> 00:31:42,109
Speaker 2: in July of 2007, he was testifying before US Congress.

554
00:31:42,959 --> 00:31:46,530
Speaker 2: And he said the subprime issue is just a 50

555
00:31:46,530 --> 00:31:49,489
Speaker 2: to $100 billion issue. It's not a big deal.

556
00:31:51,010 --> 00:31:54,050
Speaker 2: So they did not have a good enough view of

557
00:31:54,050 --> 00:31:55,390
Speaker 2: how severe it could be.

558
00:31:56,199 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 2: Having gone through that, I think we have a better

559
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,209
Speaker 2: appreciation for risk. And that's one reason why I think

560
00:32:02,209 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 2: we would um not have as much of a result

561
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 2: or as much of an impact as we had in 2008.

562
00:32:10,469 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 2: On the other hand though, there's something else that worries me.

563
00:32:14,150 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 2: 2008, the fiscal deficit was not that large.

564
00:32:18,219 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 2: The debt was much smaller.

565
00:32:20,689 --> 00:32:24,479
Speaker 2: And it was possible to rescue a lot of firms

566
00:32:24,859 --> 00:32:28,660
Speaker 2: without naming names. Some of the largest investment banks in

567
00:32:28,660 --> 00:32:32,829
Speaker 2: the United States should have gone bankrupt in 2008, but

568
00:32:32,829 --> 00:32:35,260
Speaker 2: for the generosity of the US Treasury.

569
00:32:35,939 --> 00:32:39,130
Speaker 2: And Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary who came out to

570
00:32:39,130 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 2: help them.

571
00:32:40,410 --> 00:32:44,209
Speaker 2: Many more companies would have gone bankrupt. Today, it is

572
00:32:44,209 --> 00:32:47,729
Speaker 2: much more difficult to do that because the deficit is

573
00:32:47,729 --> 00:32:51,170
Speaker 2: again bursting at the seams, and you don't have the

574
00:32:51,170 --> 00:32:56,079
Speaker 2: same ability to print money, increase spending, and bail those

575
00:32:56,079 --> 00:32:56,890
Speaker 2: companies out.

576
00:32:57,599 --> 00:33:01,969
Speaker 1: OK, fascinating 0.3. In 07 08, the phrase that was

577
00:33:01,969 --> 00:33:05,010
Speaker 1: bandied around a lot was too big to fail. A

578
00:33:05,010 --> 00:33:07,479
Speaker 1: couple of things were allowed to fail. The market reacted

579
00:33:07,479 --> 00:33:09,369
Speaker 1: very badly, and that was that the Fed was not

580
00:33:09,369 --> 00:33:12,329
Speaker 1: going to let anything else, or the Treasury, along with

581
00:33:12,329 --> 00:33:14,209
Speaker 1: the Fed was not going to let anything else fail.

582
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,349
Speaker 1: Now this will in a way.

583
00:33:16,484 --> 00:33:18,185
Speaker 1: Connect us to the next asset class that I want

584
00:33:18,185 --> 00:33:20,515
Speaker 1: to talk about. It seems to me that there is

585
00:33:20,515 --> 00:33:24,244
Speaker 1: an asset class, which from a neutral perspective is not

586
00:33:24,244 --> 00:33:27,395
Speaker 1: too big to fail, but from Trump administration's perspective, needs

587
00:33:27,395 --> 00:33:30,805
Speaker 1: to be protected, which is the crypto ecosystem, because from

588
00:33:30,805 --> 00:33:33,645
Speaker 1: the president's son onward, a lot of supporters of this

589
00:33:33,645 --> 00:33:35,324
Speaker 1: administration are very long crypto.

590
00:33:35,930 --> 00:33:38,729
Speaker 1: If we see volatility in the crypto space, and I

591
00:33:38,729 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 1: would include the stablecoin space as well, because the Genius

592
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:44,729
Speaker 1: Act has now paved the way for private companies to

593
00:33:44,729 --> 00:33:48,109
Speaker 1: go ahead and issue currencies um backed by US Treasury.

594
00:33:48,569 --> 00:33:52,969
Speaker 1: So in 2026, if we see a large scale uh

595
00:33:52,969 --> 00:33:56,329
Speaker 1: selloff in the crypto space and some breaking the buck

596
00:33:56,329 --> 00:34:00,489
Speaker 1: sort of situation with stablecoins, would you expect the Trump

597
00:34:00,489 --> 00:34:02,530
Speaker 1: administration to step in and use this too big to

598
00:34:02,530 --> 00:34:04,910
Speaker 1: fail mantra to save these institutions?

599
00:34:05,949 --> 00:34:08,149
Speaker 2: They are going to try to enter and to save

600
00:34:08,149 --> 00:34:10,330
Speaker 2: the institution. I think that is almost

601
00:34:11,050 --> 00:34:15,100
Speaker 2: In my mind, it's a given that given the importance,

602
00:34:15,179 --> 00:34:18,299
Speaker 2: given the prominence of crypto today.

603
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 2: That the administration would come forth to financially support it,

604
00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:24,780
Speaker 2: to bail out these institutions.

605
00:34:25,699 --> 00:34:29,350
Speaker 2: Uh, but the question is, in 2008, you were able

606
00:34:29,350 --> 00:34:32,609
Speaker 2: to bail out a number of different financial institutions.

607
00:34:33,448 --> 00:34:36,968
Speaker 2: And that ability to be so generous with the cash

608
00:34:36,968 --> 00:34:39,788
Speaker 2: is going to be limited. So, if you go ahead

609
00:34:39,789 --> 00:34:43,479
Speaker 2: and protect the crypto industry, you're going to not protect

610
00:34:43,479 --> 00:34:47,049
Speaker 2: a few other areas which you would have otherwise given

611
00:34:47,049 --> 00:34:48,098
Speaker 2: money to bail out.

612
00:34:48,919 --> 00:34:52,439
Speaker 2: So what I'm saying is you might still end up

613
00:34:52,439 --> 00:34:55,359
Speaker 2: having one or two large scale bankruptcies.

614
00:34:56,379 --> 00:34:59,419
Speaker 2: And just as we did not anticipate Lehman Brothers to

615
00:34:59,419 --> 00:35:00,219
Speaker 2: go bankrupt.

616
00:35:00,850 --> 00:35:03,250
Speaker 2: And it was too big to fail, but it did,

617
00:35:03,409 --> 00:35:04,250
Speaker 2: it did fail.

618
00:35:04,929 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 2: Uh, you may have failures of that kind coming up

619
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:09,820
Speaker 2: in 2026.

620
00:35:11,149 --> 00:35:14,629
Speaker 1: But, just going back to the policy playbook of 2008,

621
00:35:15,030 --> 00:35:18,830
Speaker 1: the way bailouts were done was the following. The Fed

622
00:35:18,830 --> 00:35:22,750
Speaker 1: would do quantitative easing. It would choose to buy assets

623
00:35:22,750 --> 00:35:27,469
Speaker 1: across the risk spectrum, including mortgage backed securities and agency

624
00:35:27,469 --> 00:35:29,989
Speaker 1: debt and so on. Uh, and at the same time,

625
00:35:30,070 --> 00:35:33,550
Speaker 1: the Treasury would provide all sorts of guarantees to the

626
00:35:33,550 --> 00:35:36,610
Speaker 1: loans that financial institutions would take to keep their balance

627
00:35:36,610 --> 00:35:37,569
Speaker 1: sheets stable.

628
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: When we talk about a crypto company or stablecoin company,

629
00:35:42,679 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 1: would it not cause massive amounts of consternation among market

630
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,259
Speaker 1: participants that those sort of companies are being bailed out

631
00:35:49,399 --> 00:35:52,159
Speaker 1: using the same sort of instruments that were used in 2008?

632
00:35:54,459 --> 00:35:58,090
Speaker 2: I think the markets are in the immediate reaction to that,

633
00:35:58,169 --> 00:36:01,449
Speaker 2: the markets will be happy. Look at what happened in 2008.

634
00:36:01,530 --> 00:36:06,129
Speaker 2: We said there were mortgage-backed securities which had sunk in value.

635
00:36:07,090 --> 00:36:09,860
Speaker 2: To 40 or 50 cents on the dollar down from

636
00:36:09,860 --> 00:36:10,729
Speaker 2: a full dollar.

637
00:36:11,699 --> 00:36:16,060
Speaker 2: And US Treasury, the generous entity that it is, actually

638
00:36:16,060 --> 00:36:19,138
Speaker 2: bought it from many of these financial institutions for a

639
00:36:19,139 --> 00:36:19,939
Speaker 2: full $1.

640
00:36:21,010 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 2: Did anybody blink an eye? Were they upset that this

641
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:28,529
Speaker 2: was happening to the large financial institutions? They turned around

642
00:36:28,530 --> 00:36:33,550
Speaker 2: and gave huge bonuses to their employees. Did anyone protest? No.

643
00:36:34,050 --> 00:36:37,409
Speaker 2: That's the way the system works. So the only thing

644
00:36:37,409 --> 00:36:41,050
Speaker 2: that's going to limit Timor is the fact that if

645
00:36:41,050 --> 00:36:44,929
Speaker 2: you go way above board in terms of the bailout.

646
00:36:45,879 --> 00:36:49,219
Speaker 2: And the bond market react, puts in a protest.

647
00:36:50,229 --> 00:36:54,069
Speaker 2: And the yields shoot up at the 10-year, 30 year level.

648
00:36:54,879 --> 00:36:57,639
Speaker 2: Mortgage rates become impossible to get.

649
00:36:58,429 --> 00:37:02,949
Speaker 2: And the dollar sinks, let's say from $1.16 or $1.17

650
00:37:03,070 --> 00:37:07,469
Speaker 2: to the euro, it goes to, you need $1.50 to

651
00:37:07,469 --> 00:37:08,770
Speaker 2: buy a euro, for instance.

652
00:37:09,899 --> 00:37:12,709
Speaker 2: If you have a weakness of the dollar with respect

653
00:37:12,709 --> 00:37:15,550
Speaker 2: to the yen, with respect to the euro, with respect

654
00:37:15,550 --> 00:37:19,110
Speaker 2: to the pound sterling, that is when you're going, it

655
00:37:19,110 --> 00:37:21,790
Speaker 2: is going to cause consternation in the market.

656
00:37:22,550 --> 00:37:26,739
Speaker 2: Other than that, people don't care which entity the government

657
00:37:26,739 --> 00:37:27,500
Speaker 2: bails out.

658
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,810
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's, it feels almost cynical to make

659
00:37:32,810 --> 00:37:35,810
Speaker 2: that such a statement, but that's the way the markets function.

660
00:37:36,389 --> 00:37:40,830
Speaker 1: That is indeed. Now, all this uncertainty and the expectation

661
00:37:40,830 --> 00:37:46,419
Speaker 1: of intervention across various asset classes and policy levers, uh,

662
00:37:46,590 --> 00:37:48,909
Speaker 1: it manifests somewhere. So your point is that one is

663
00:37:48,909 --> 00:37:52,149
Speaker 1: it'll manifest in weakening of the dollar. Uh, would you

664
00:37:52,149 --> 00:37:55,449
Speaker 1: remain as constructive on gold as you were one year ago?

665
00:37:55,909 --> 00:37:56,229
Speaker 2: Yes,

666
00:37:56,310 --> 00:37:58,590
Speaker 2: I continue to be, uh, constructive.

667
00:37:59,250 --> 00:38:03,770
Speaker 2: I'm being more conservative though, uh, for instance, I told

668
00:38:03,770 --> 00:38:08,350
Speaker 2: another interviewer in February of 2020 25, earlier this year,

669
00:38:08,889 --> 00:38:12,850
Speaker 2: by July, we would hit 3700. When it was still

670
00:38:12,850 --> 00:38:16,189
Speaker 2: about 2700, I said, we are going to hit 3700

671
00:38:16,489 --> 00:38:23,169
Speaker 2: by July of 2025 this year. Actually, we hit uh 3800.

672
00:38:23,290 --> 00:38:26,529
Speaker 2: I was wrong by $100 from the beginning of the

673
00:38:26,530 --> 00:38:27,449
Speaker 2: year to July.

674
00:38:28,199 --> 00:38:32,879
Speaker 2: I'm now saying we'll hit 5000 on gold by the

675
00:38:32,879 --> 00:38:36,439
Speaker 2: end of 2026. It's not going to be a straight line.

676
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 2: We have seen it go up by a few dollars

677
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 2: and then come back because it's profit taking. But today,

678
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 2: for instance, it is over, well over 3000 wow, it

679
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 2: is well over $4300.

680
00:38:50,639 --> 00:38:55,649
Speaker 2: And reaching another record. And silver has also kept pace

681
00:38:55,649 --> 00:38:59,569
Speaker 2: with it. So I remain very constructive. Uh, I would

682
00:38:59,570 --> 00:39:02,850
Speaker 2: probably say it slows down, it doesn't rise at the

683
00:39:02,850 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 2: same percentage extent as we did over the past year,

684
00:39:06,810 --> 00:39:09,010
Speaker 2: but it's still going to be a very good investment

685
00:39:09,010 --> 00:39:11,959
Speaker 2: over the next 12 months. Why do I say that?

686
00:39:12,489 --> 00:39:15,389
Speaker 2: Because I don't see any discipline in monetary policy.

687
00:39:16,139 --> 00:39:19,020
Speaker 2: In the United States, I don't see any discipline in

688
00:39:19,020 --> 00:39:22,049
Speaker 2: the fiscal policy, and when you don't have it, it

689
00:39:22,050 --> 00:39:25,259
Speaker 2: is going to be reflected in the precious metals prices.

690
00:39:26,899 --> 00:39:30,310
Speaker 1: So Shweed, that takes me to the question about the

691
00:39:30,310 --> 00:39:33,500
Speaker 1: quality of institutions, because a lot of times, whether you

692
00:39:33,500 --> 00:39:37,060
Speaker 1: and I are looking at an asset price, we will

693
00:39:37,060 --> 00:39:39,899
Speaker 1: base it on fundamentals, and those fundamentals would be based

694
00:39:39,899 --> 00:39:43,820
Speaker 1: on data generated by the public sector. Um, now, we

695
00:39:43,820 --> 00:39:45,979
Speaker 1: know that this year was marked by the head of

696
00:39:45,979 --> 00:39:48,260
Speaker 1: BLS being fired by Trump because he didn't like one

697
00:39:48,260 --> 00:39:51,060
Speaker 1: of the data points that the BLS released. Uh, going

698
00:39:51,060 --> 00:39:52,379
Speaker 1: into 2026.

699
00:39:52,949 --> 00:39:55,270
Speaker 1: Will we have to continue struggling with the quality of

700
00:39:55,270 --> 00:39:57,939
Speaker 1: data out of the US or that is an aberration

701
00:39:57,939 --> 00:39:59,370
Speaker 1: and it's not going to happen again?

702
00:39:59,790 --> 00:40:02,149
Speaker 2: I think you're going to continue to have an issue

703
00:40:02,149 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 2: with the quality of the data.

704
00:40:04,489 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 2: Um, but here is, here is what has happened. Powell

705
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:11,270
Speaker 2: made that statement last Wednesday at his press conference.

706
00:40:12,199 --> 00:40:15,659
Speaker 2: He essentially, he doesn't buy the labor market numbers.

707
00:40:16,590 --> 00:40:20,830
Speaker 2: He bluntly said, I'm, I'm contributing to cutting the interest

708
00:40:20,830 --> 00:40:21,610
Speaker 2: rate today.

709
00:40:22,489 --> 00:40:26,698
Speaker 2: Because I think the labor market job creation numbers are

710
00:40:26,699 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 2: overestimated in his opinion.

711
00:40:29,989 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 2: And instead of creating 40,000 jobs per month, he thinks

712
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:39,510
Speaker 2: we have actually lost 20,000 jobs per month since April.

713
00:40:40,030 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 2: He's making a huge distinction.

714
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 2: How did he find out? His staff told him.

715
00:40:47,469 --> 00:40:50,479
Speaker 2: And so as a result of that, he's going to

716
00:40:50,479 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 2: use his hunch.

717
00:40:52,340 --> 00:40:57,139
Speaker 2: To cut interest rates, official data be damned. We have

718
00:40:57,139 --> 00:41:00,179
Speaker 2: labor market numbers which are going to come out tomorrow,

719
00:41:00,340 --> 00:41:03,459
Speaker 2: Tuesday in the United States. He's not going to wait

720
00:41:03,459 --> 00:41:07,159
Speaker 2: for it. He just went ahead and cut the interest rate. Why?

721
00:41:07,620 --> 00:41:11,259
Speaker 2: You would think, even if the quality is poor, because

722
00:41:11,260 --> 00:41:13,860
Speaker 2: they have, there have been cutbacks in terms of the

723
00:41:13,860 --> 00:41:18,100
Speaker 2: number of employees, I don't doubt the honesty of the

724
00:41:18,100 --> 00:41:19,419
Speaker 2: government employees here.

725
00:41:20,290 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 2: But the problem they have is there are not enough

726
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 2: of them.

727
00:41:23,830 --> 00:41:26,149
Speaker 2: They're not able to collect them, they're not able to

728
00:41:26,149 --> 00:41:30,419
Speaker 2: do the surveys, and that's what causes revisions to take place, I,

729
00:41:30,550 --> 00:41:34,790
Speaker 2: not because of ill will or because of dishonesty. But

730
00:41:34,790 --> 00:41:37,229
Speaker 2: even that, that's all you have on the official side.

731
00:41:38,169 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 2: And if that is the case, rather than wait for

732
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 2: the data,

733
00:41:43,489 --> 00:41:47,659
Speaker 2: Tuesday, tomorrow we are going to get the unemployment numbers.

734
00:41:47,969 --> 00:41:50,639
Speaker 2: Thursday we are going to get inflation numbers.

735
00:41:51,850 --> 00:41:55,860
Speaker 2: And if I would have said the responsible Fed should

736
00:41:55,860 --> 00:41:59,959
Speaker 2: have delayed its FOMC meeting by 10 days.

737
00:42:01,050 --> 00:42:04,340
Speaker 2: Heavensts won't fall if you delay by 10 days. Do

738
00:42:04,340 --> 00:42:06,620
Speaker 2: you have to keep your calendar that you announced at

739
00:42:06,620 --> 00:42:09,360
Speaker 2: the beginning of the year when you don't have any data?

740
00:42:10,100 --> 00:42:15,159
Speaker 2: That's what they did. So, I don't worry about the

741
00:42:15,419 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 2: honesty of the data. I do worry about the quality.

742
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 2: Um, but I, I worry even more about the way

743
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:24,199
Speaker 2: in which the Fed has been acting.

744
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and between the two Kevins, we will get at

745
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 1: least one Kevin leading the Fed, I think, starting the

746
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 1: middle of next year. Shri, let's do a little round

747
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,779
Speaker 1: of predictions. I think you've given us quite a few

748
00:42:39,159 --> 00:42:43,860
Speaker 1: prognostications already with respect to gold and with respect to

749
00:42:43,860 --> 00:42:48,459
Speaker 1: inflation and the likelihood of a crisis and its relative magnitude.

750
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,479
Speaker 1: But let's go a little more granular. What's your sense

751
00:42:51,479 --> 00:42:53,500
Speaker 1: of US growth for 2026?

752
00:42:54,659 --> 00:42:59,780
Speaker 2: Uh, US growth, I think, remains strong through the first quarter.

753
00:43:00,429 --> 00:43:04,179
Speaker 2: But the final 3 quarters are really a question mark.

754
00:43:04,419 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 2: If you do have a financial crisis of some kind,

755
00:43:07,060 --> 00:43:08,310
Speaker 2: it is going to pull down.

756
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:12,399
Speaker 2: So, it wouldn't make sense to give you one composite

757
00:43:12,399 --> 00:43:15,569
Speaker 2: number for the year. But if you want to, let

758
00:43:15,570 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 2: me just say, + 3% annualized for the 1st 33

759
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:23,580
Speaker 2: months of the year, followed by 0 in the 2nd,

760
00:43:24,159 --> 00:43:29,339
Speaker 2: and -2, -2 in the second half of 2026. That's again,

761
00:43:29,399 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 2: my quick guess on how the growth will transpire.

762
00:43:33,169 --> 00:43:37,209
Speaker 1: So even if there is significant QE and bailouts done

763
00:43:37,209 --> 00:43:40,689
Speaker 1: by the Fed and the Treasury, uh, growth will be

764
00:43:40,689 --> 00:43:44,270
Speaker 1: on the negative side, uh, I guess largely because investment

765
00:43:44,570 --> 00:43:46,070
Speaker 1: related to AI would collapse.

766
00:43:46,729 --> 00:43:50,850
Speaker 2: Investment related to AI will collapse. That is one reason. Second,

767
00:43:51,290 --> 00:43:54,149
Speaker 2: if you do QE and if you keep on cutting

768
00:43:54,149 --> 00:43:56,870
Speaker 2: the federal funds rate at the short end,

769
00:43:57,560 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 2: You're going to see the 10 year and 30 year

770
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:00,879
Speaker 2: yield rise up.

771
00:44:01,860 --> 00:44:07,439
Speaker 2: So, hopefully, we don't have a repeat of 1980, 1981,

772
00:44:07,979 --> 00:44:11,540
Speaker 2: but I do remember having been a student and my

773
00:44:11,540 --> 00:44:14,979
Speaker 2: early job in the United States, we had a mortgage

774
00:44:14,979 --> 00:44:16,419
Speaker 2: rate of 18%.

775
00:44:17,699 --> 00:44:21,189
Speaker 2: And if you have the long end go up so

776
00:44:21,189 --> 00:44:24,350
Speaker 2: much in yield, any amount of QE is not going

777
00:44:24,350 --> 00:44:26,469
Speaker 2: to help on the economic growth side.

778
00:44:27,929 --> 00:44:32,939
Speaker 1: And would this volatility around growth have an impact on

779
00:44:32,939 --> 00:44:35,300
Speaker 1: bringing down inflation by the end of 2026?

780
00:44:36,739 --> 00:44:40,029
Speaker 2: The volatility in um in in growth or would that

781
00:44:40,030 --> 00:44:42,540
Speaker 2: bring inflation down? No, I, I do not say so.

782
00:44:42,590 --> 00:44:46,889
Speaker 2: In fact, I, my forecast has been, and it's already

783
00:44:46,889 --> 00:44:50,189
Speaker 2: starting to take place to some extent, is stagflation.

784
00:44:50,949 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 2: The first stagflation in the United States in about 50 years.

785
00:44:55,379 --> 00:44:59,589
Speaker 2: And why do you have stagflation? Stagflation requires two things. One,

786
00:44:59,709 --> 00:45:03,209
Speaker 2: you need to have one commodity that is extremely scarce

787
00:45:03,469 --> 00:45:05,790
Speaker 2: and doesn't have a substitute. So when it goes up

788
00:45:05,790 --> 00:45:09,189
Speaker 2: in price, you can't move from that commodity and use

789
00:45:09,189 --> 00:45:12,948
Speaker 2: other commodity in your basket. In the 1970s, it was

790
00:45:12,949 --> 00:45:18,428
Speaker 2: called oil. When crude oil prices tripled or quadrupled, you

791
00:45:18,429 --> 00:45:20,989
Speaker 2: did not have an alternative. There was no solar energy.

792
00:45:21,110 --> 00:45:24,388
Speaker 2: There was no electrical energy to power your automobiles, for instance.

793
00:45:25,199 --> 00:45:28,319
Speaker 2: Now you do, on the other hand, instead of one

794
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:32,360
Speaker 2: commodity at the composite of all commodities in the basket

795
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 2: are going up.

796
00:45:33,889 --> 00:45:37,010
Speaker 2: Unless you're going to flee from the entire basket and

797
00:45:37,010 --> 00:45:39,770
Speaker 2: you have to buy something, you're going to push up prices.

798
00:45:40,540 --> 00:45:46,469
Speaker 2: And the second reason for expecting is taxflation requires quite

799
00:45:46,469 --> 00:45:48,509
Speaker 2: significant economic mismanagement.

800
00:45:50,020 --> 00:45:53,699
Speaker 2: And we had that in the 1970s and 1980s. And

801
00:45:53,699 --> 00:45:56,300
Speaker 2: in fact, I pointed out in one of my reports,

802
00:45:56,780 --> 00:46:00,379
Speaker 2: we now have the first Federal Reserve chairman.

803
00:46:01,479 --> 00:46:02,739
Speaker 2: In 50 years,

804
00:46:03,489 --> 00:46:07,570
Speaker 2: Who does not have a formal economics education.

805
00:46:08,899 --> 00:46:10,770
Speaker 2: Do you know who the previous one was?

806
00:46:11,699 --> 00:46:16,489
Speaker 2: G. William Miller, nominated by President Jimmy Carter.

807
00:46:17,510 --> 00:46:21,859
Speaker 2: He came to the Federal Reserve from the manufacturing sector.

808
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:27,250
Speaker 2: And he believed, as we have seen take place in Turkey,

809
00:46:27,370 --> 00:46:31,449
Speaker 2: for instance, in recent years, that reducing interest rates will

810
00:46:31,449 --> 00:46:33,770
Speaker 2: reduce inflation because it will cost growth.

811
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:37,359
Speaker 2: This chairman seems to believe in the same thing, and

812
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,779
Speaker 2: it's not a coincidence that he did not have an

813
00:46:39,780 --> 00:46:40,840
Speaker 2: economic education.

814
00:46:41,750 --> 00:46:46,639
Speaker 2: And that also means that the mismanagement and bad use

815
00:46:46,639 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 2: of monetary and fiscal policy is going to be a

816
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 2: reason why stagflation becomes a reality again.

817
00:46:55,530 --> 00:46:59,899
Speaker 1: Is there a chance that these sort of economic volatility

818
00:46:59,899 --> 00:47:02,779
Speaker 1: in the US remains contained in the US or would

819
00:47:02,780 --> 00:47:07,739
Speaker 1: you forecast the spillover from this sort of correction, spilling

820
00:47:07,739 --> 00:47:10,959
Speaker 1: over and creating major downside for Europe and EM?

821
00:47:12,169 --> 00:47:15,679
Speaker 2: The United States is still very large. It is still

822
00:47:15,679 --> 00:47:20,209
Speaker 2: connected interconnected through trade and capital flows, that what happens

823
00:47:20,209 --> 00:47:23,010
Speaker 2: here will be transmitted to the rest of the world.

824
00:47:23,830 --> 00:47:26,669
Speaker 2: Maybe in another 50 years, there will be other, China

825
00:47:26,669 --> 00:47:30,429
Speaker 2: will become very large, India will become very large, Brazil

826
00:47:30,429 --> 00:47:34,189
Speaker 2: would become very large, and those countries may offset what

827
00:47:34,189 --> 00:47:36,949
Speaker 2: happens in the United States, but not today. Today, I

828
00:47:36,949 --> 00:47:41,949
Speaker 2: think the US slowdown in growth, the US taxflation, in turn,

829
00:47:42,070 --> 00:47:44,469
Speaker 2: I think will be transmitted to the rest of the world.

830
00:47:45,750 --> 00:47:48,939
Speaker 1: Shri, the reason I ask this question is that this

831
00:47:48,939 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 1: inflation issue seems to be a very US centric phenomenon,

832
00:47:52,699 --> 00:47:56,540
Speaker 1: choice-driven tariff, immigration, etc. because the rest of the world,

833
00:47:56,580 --> 00:48:01,290
Speaker 1: 2025 has been characterized by very stable, if not declining inflation,

834
00:48:01,540 --> 00:48:04,540
Speaker 1: and hence rates have come down without the markets reacting

835
00:48:04,540 --> 00:48:06,580
Speaker 1: adversely in this part of the world.

836
00:48:06,870 --> 00:48:12,679
Speaker 1: Um, so, if indeed in 2026, your scenario around volatile growth,

837
00:48:12,750 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 1: volatile policymaking, stagflationary outcome, stock market correction, all of those

838
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:21,198
Speaker 1: things were to transpire, it, it doesn't seem to me

839
00:48:21,199 --> 00:48:23,819
Speaker 1: that there is much room or necessity.

840
00:48:24,250 --> 00:48:26,489
Speaker 1: In this part of the world to cut interest rates

841
00:48:26,489 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 1: or mirror the Fed's likely unorthodox actions. So I was,

842
00:48:31,050 --> 00:48:34,889
Speaker 1: I was sort of coming from there because in the

843
00:48:34,889 --> 00:48:37,610
Speaker 1: whole world followed the Fed with QE and a balance

844
00:48:37,610 --> 00:48:39,610
Speaker 1: sheet expansion and so on because it really was seen

845
00:48:39,610 --> 00:48:40,030
Speaker 1: as the

846
00:48:40,074 --> 00:48:43,504
Speaker 1: The only way to stop uh global depression from happening.

847
00:48:43,715 --> 00:48:46,234
Speaker 1: You will recall China went with the, what we call

848
00:48:46,235 --> 00:48:49,513
Speaker 1: mother of all credit booms in 08 09, and in

849
00:48:49,514 --> 00:48:52,064
Speaker 1: some ways, the world economy sort of owes them a

850
00:48:52,064 --> 00:48:56,794
Speaker 1: debt of gratitude because they really popped up demand. But I, I,

851
00:48:56,875 --> 00:48:59,784
Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure we will see a similar reaction

852
00:48:59,784 --> 00:49:01,194
Speaker 1: from the rest of the world. I suppose I'm coming

853
00:49:01,195 --> 00:49:01,674
Speaker 1: from there.

854
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:06,510
Speaker 2: Uh, you may not see a similar reaction, uh, especially

855
00:49:06,510 --> 00:49:07,689
Speaker 2: because the US.

856
00:49:08,489 --> 00:49:14,889
Speaker 2: Um, has been cutting interest rates significantly before the anticipated

857
00:49:14,889 --> 00:49:17,050
Speaker 2: crisis of 2026.

858
00:49:17,989 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 2: And I think that is one reason why they may

859
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:24,919
Speaker 2: not do it. The second is memories of 2007, 2008.

860
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 2: Leading to the fact that that did not help the

861
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:29,439
Speaker 2: other countries.

862
00:49:30,110 --> 00:49:33,149
Speaker 2: That they followed the United States in terms of what

863
00:49:33,149 --> 00:49:37,589
Speaker 2: they did. China, as you said, increased economic growth, they

864
00:49:37,590 --> 00:49:41,389
Speaker 2: cut the interest rates, provided the stimulus, but that also

865
00:49:41,389 --> 00:49:44,870
Speaker 2: laid the foundation for the property crisis that you see

866
00:49:44,870 --> 00:49:46,009
Speaker 2: in China today.

867
00:49:46,780 --> 00:49:49,060
Speaker 2: And a good chunk of that happened due to the

868
00:49:49,060 --> 00:49:54,699
Speaker 2: post 2008 government spending and the support for the real

869
00:49:54,699 --> 00:49:56,060
Speaker 2: estate sector in China.

870
00:49:56,870 --> 00:49:59,870
Speaker 2: So I think there is more, and I do remember

871
00:49:59,870 --> 00:50:02,929
Speaker 2: also in early 2009 going to Brazil.

872
00:50:03,689 --> 00:50:07,219
Speaker 2: And the, uh, the people in the central bank would

873
00:50:07,219 --> 00:50:10,459
Speaker 2: say to me, we are not in crisis. The United

874
00:50:10,459 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 2: States is in crisis.

875
00:50:12,629 --> 00:50:16,839
Speaker 2: But this was February of 2009, we are not in crisis,

876
00:50:17,350 --> 00:50:21,939
Speaker 2: because we learned from our crises in the 1980s and 19990s.

877
00:50:22,350 --> 00:50:26,350
Speaker 2: So our balance sheet is in much saner shape than

878
00:50:26,350 --> 00:50:29,389
Speaker 2: the United States is, and that's why we are uh

879
00:50:29,389 --> 00:50:33,010
Speaker 2: not having the same issue as before. So, you are correct.

880
00:50:33,110 --> 00:50:36,989
Speaker 2: I think in 2026, they will not follow the United

881
00:50:36,989 --> 00:50:38,030
Speaker 2: States blindly.

882
00:50:38,830 --> 00:50:41,388
Speaker 2: They are going to be very careful what they do

883
00:50:41,389 --> 00:50:43,049
Speaker 2: with respect to their stimulus.

884
00:50:43,770 --> 00:50:46,860
Speaker 2: And if that's the case, you may see an even

885
00:50:46,860 --> 00:50:48,580
Speaker 2: further weakening of the dollar.

886
00:50:50,030 --> 00:50:52,909
Speaker 2: If the other countries are more disciplined and the United

887
00:50:52,909 --> 00:50:53,870
Speaker 2: States is not,

888
00:50:54,850 --> 00:50:57,889
Speaker 2: And that again means that the risk to the world

889
00:50:57,889 --> 00:51:03,310
Speaker 2: thereafter is an undisciplined depreciation of the dollar rather than

890
00:51:03,310 --> 00:51:04,649
Speaker 2: an orderly weakness.

891
00:51:06,590 --> 00:51:10,629
Speaker 1: Right, so stagflation, weak dollar.

892
00:51:11,429 --> 00:51:17,299
Speaker 1: Policy volatility and a big market correction. Shri, we're not

893
00:51:17,300 --> 00:51:19,110
Speaker 1: ending 2025 on a hopeful note.

894
00:51:19,989 --> 00:51:22,750
Speaker 2: No, I'm not. It is easy to do that, but

895
00:51:22,750 --> 00:51:25,750
Speaker 2: I would be once, if there were, sorry to use

896
00:51:25,750 --> 00:51:27,888
Speaker 2: the expression, if there were blood on the street.

897
00:51:28,870 --> 00:51:30,879
Speaker 2: Uh, then I would say it would be a great

898
00:51:30,879 --> 00:51:33,280
Speaker 2: time to buy, and we would be off again to

899
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:36,819
Speaker 2: the races and going up again, but I think we

900
00:51:36,820 --> 00:51:39,919
Speaker 2: have to go through the slimming down process first before

901
00:51:39,919 --> 00:51:40,679
Speaker 2: that happens.

902
00:51:41,469 --> 00:51:45,679
Speaker 1: Well, we'll take stock of all that in December 2026. Shri, uh,

903
00:51:45,870 --> 00:51:48,069
Speaker 1: thank you very much for your time and insights. I

904
00:51:48,070 --> 00:51:50,069
Speaker 1: wish you happy holidays and a happy New Year.

905
00:51:50,729 --> 00:51:53,429
Speaker 2: Happy holidays and happy New Year to you as well, Taimur,

906
00:51:53,469 --> 00:51:55,270
Speaker 2: and I always a pleasure talking to

907
00:51:55,270 --> 00:51:55,610
Speaker 2: you.

908
00:51:55,870 --> 00:51:58,629
Speaker 1: The pleasure is all mine. Thanks to our listeners for

909
00:51:58,629 --> 00:52:01,388
Speaker 1: their time as well. This podcast was produced by Ken

910
00:52:01,389 --> 00:52:04,750
Speaker 1: Delbridge at Spy Studios. Violet Lee and Daisy Sharma provided

911
00:52:04,750 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 1: additional assistance. Kobe time is for information only, and

912
00:52:07,850 --> 00:52:12,729
Speaker 1: does not constitute any investment advice. All 160 episodes, 68

913
00:52:12,729 --> 00:52:15,448
Speaker 1: episodes of the series are available on YouTube and on

914
00:52:15,449 --> 00:52:19,689
Speaker 1: all major podcast platforms, including Apple and Spotify. For our

915
00:52:19,689 --> 00:52:22,009
Speaker 1: research content and webinars, you can find them all by

916
00:52:22,010 --> 00:52:25,009
Speaker 1: Googling DBS Research Library. Have a great day.