WEBVTT - Kopi Time E147 - Kishore Mahbubani on a Fragmenting World 0:00:06.090 --> 0:00:08.640 Welcome to Cookie Time, a podcast series on markets and 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:12.449 economies from DBS Group Research. I'm Tebei, chief economist. Welcome 0:00:12.449 --> 0:00:16.930 you to our 147th episode. Today, we are delighted to 0:00:16.930 --> 0:00:20.128 have Kishore Mahbani back on the show. He's a distinguished 0:00:20.129 --> 0:00:23.649 fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore. Mr. 0:00:23.690 --> 0:00:26.409 Mahobani has been privileged to have two distinct and very 0:00:26.409 --> 0:00:30.049 distinguished careers. First, as a diplomat from the 70s all 0:00:30.049 --> 0:00:32.769 the way to the early 2000s, and then in academia. 0:00:33.180 --> 0:00:35.950 He is a prolific writer who has spoken in many 0:00:35.950 --> 0:00:38.540 corners of the world, and his latest book is Living 0:00:38.540 --> 0:00:44.229 the Asian Century An Undiplomatic Memoir. Highly recommended. Kiswani, welcome 0:00:44.229 --> 0:00:46.470 back to Coff Time. Thank you, Timur. It's great to 0:00:46.470 --> 0:00:48.779 have you, and we are recording this in Mumbai, India. 0:00:49.029 --> 0:00:51.500 So I would like to begin our conversation with India. 0:00:51.709 --> 0:00:55.270 Where do you see India sitting here in late January 0:00:55.270 --> 0:00:57.950 2025 in the geopolitical landscape? 0:00:58.630 --> 0:01:00.639 Uh, first of all, thank you very much for having 0:01:00.639 --> 0:01:04.319 me on again. Uh, I know that our first recording 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:05.599 had quite a few 0:01:05.599 --> 0:01:06.199 so 0:01:06.199 --> 0:01:06.629 far 0:01:06.629 --> 0:01:07.639 the history of COVID time, 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:14.399 yes. Um, you know, to understand, uh, India's place in 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:16.190 this geopolitical moment. 0:01:17.489 --> 0:01:20.690 We have to understand first the geopolitical movement. 0:01:21.889 --> 0:01:26.209 And here it's important to emphasize, we are a very 0:01:26.209 --> 0:01:28.500 unique crossroads. 0:01:29.300 --> 0:01:30.930 In the field of geopolitics. 0:01:31.629 --> 0:01:36.830 So there are fundamental structural take uh structural changes. 0:01:37.620 --> 0:01:42.059 Taking place in the geopolitical order. That's the moment. And 0:01:42.059 --> 0:01:47.690 the question, therefore, is which countries are adapting well to this, 0:01:47.940 --> 0:01:52.300 to these structural changes and which countries are adapting badly? 0:01:53.050 --> 0:01:55.730 To these structural changes. I can give examples of both. 0:01:56.260 --> 0:01:58.739 So clearly, one of the changes that is happening, and 0:01:58.739 --> 0:02:01.779 I've said this over and over and over again, is 0:02:01.779 --> 0:02:04.739 that we're reaching the end of 200 years of Western 0:02:04.739 --> 0:02:10.579 domination of world history, you know. So, clearly the 88% 0:02:10.580 --> 0:02:14.300 of the world's population who live outside the West are 0:02:14.300 --> 0:02:17.580 waking up significantly and people ask me to give one 0:02:17.580 --> 0:02:18.949 simple example of this. 0:02:19.350 --> 0:02:23.520 I just say, look at the uh Ukraine war, even 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:26.758 though the Russian invasion of Ukraine was clearly illegal, no 0:02:26.758 --> 0:02:33.389 question about that. When the West imposed sanctions on Russia, 85% 0:02:33.389 --> 0:02:37.119 of the world's population didn't join the West in imposing 0:02:37.119 --> 0:02:41.479 sanctions on Russia. So you can see, therefore this bifurcation. 0:02:42.410 --> 0:02:47.539 And uh at the same time also, within the West, uh, 0:02:47.619 --> 0:02:51.940 you have to make a huge distinction between United States 0:02:51.940 --> 0:02:54.779 and Europe. You know, at the beginning of the 21st century, 0:02:54.860 --> 0:02:56.300 they were more or less on par. 0:02:57.250 --> 0:03:00.519 Now, look at the United States is so much bigger, right? 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:03.330 The EU has shrunk to 2/3 the size of the 0:03:03.330 --> 0:03:07.529 United States and the European Union clearly has also lost 0:03:07.529 --> 0:03:12.210 its way and is floundering in terms of adjusting to 0:03:12.210 --> 0:03:16.190 this new world order, both in the arena of geopolitics 0:03:16.190 --> 0:03:20.449 and their mismanagement of the Ukraine issue and also uh 0:03:20.449 --> 0:03:23.520 in economics and not being able to grow their economies 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:25.649 and adapt and just to a new world. 0:03:26.100 --> 0:03:28.570 By contrast, by the way, the United States looks very 0:03:28.570 --> 0:03:34.850 robust and strong and and dynamic. So in this setting, uh, 0:03:34.860 --> 0:03:38.759 there will be winners and losers with these structural changes, 0:03:38.770 --> 0:03:41.360 and I predict that India will be a big winner 0:03:42.089 --> 0:03:46.089 because this, this, this, these kinds of structural changes open 0:03:46.089 --> 0:03:50.050 windows of opportunity and clearly India is going to have 0:03:50.050 --> 0:03:53.559 a major window of opportunity because as things change. 0:03:54.039 --> 0:03:57.839 As people try to cultivate the rising powers, India clearly 0:03:57.839 --> 0:04:00.279 is one of the rising powers. The beginning of the 0:04:00.279 --> 0:04:04.940 20th century wasn't in the top 10 list of world economies. Uh, 0:04:05.039 --> 0:04:07.210 today it is already number 5. By 2030, it will 0:04:07.210 --> 0:04:10.039 be number 3. So India has arrived in that sense. 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:14.360 So as we move towards a multipolar world order, India 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:17.600 will be one of the significant poles, and India, therefore, 0:04:17.678 --> 0:04:21.359 can become a huge beneficiary if it plays this game well. 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:24.679 So let's talk about the playing the game well in 0:04:24.678 --> 0:04:28.720 the context of India-US relationship. We have Donald Trump back 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:33.350 in the White House. Um, India runs a large trade deficit. Uh, 0:04:33.589 --> 0:04:36.529 the US has a big trade deficit vis a vis India. Uh, 0:04:36.809 --> 0:04:40.200 Trump's key API or key performance indicator seems to be 0:04:40.559 --> 0:04:43.599 narrowing deficit vis a vis nations. Would he impose tariffs 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:45.558 on India? How will India play that? What's your 0:04:45.559 --> 0:04:46.190 sense? 0:04:46.519 --> 0:04:51.039 Well, I think in the case of Donald Trump. 0:04:51.890 --> 0:04:55.469 Uh, you have to do, uh, you have to switch 0:04:55.470 --> 0:04:59.269 your means of calculating. Uh, you know, in the past, 0:04:59.369 --> 0:05:05.790 you know, things like goodwill, relationships, uh, um, how do 0:05:05.790 --> 0:05:09.589 you say, established history would make a difference. In the 0:05:09.589 --> 0:05:14.219 case of Donald Trump, nothing matters except very simple question, 0:05:14.670 --> 0:05:17.549 what have you done for me lately? That's all he asks. 0:05:18.390 --> 0:05:22.480 And this is where on the one hand, uh, I 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:27.359 have no doubt that the close personal relationship between Donald 0:05:27.359 --> 0:05:30.760 Trump and the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a genuine, 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:34.238 they both get along with each other, will make some 0:05:34.238 --> 0:05:39.279 kind of a difference. But you know, frankly, if you 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:43.359 look at countries in the world, no country has been 0:05:43.359 --> 0:05:46.928 as loyal to the United States as Canada has been. 0:05:47.420 --> 0:05:49.160 And if you look at the way that Canada has 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:53.510 been kicked around by Donald Trump, you realize that relationships 0:05:53.809 --> 0:05:54.559 don't matter. 0:05:55.399 --> 0:05:58.170 At the end of the day, what matters is pure 0:05:58.519 --> 0:06:03.920 uh transactional interests, and he will want to see uh 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:07.040 balanced trade between US and India. 0:06:07.869 --> 0:06:11.070 Uh, he may insist on India opening up, uh, some 0:06:11.070 --> 0:06:15.230 of its markets, uh, to American products. He's going to 0:06:15.230 --> 0:06:19.670 deport illegal Indian immigrants, which is, you know, going to 0:06:19.670 --> 0:06:21.989 be a problem for India because if you look at 0:06:21.988 --> 0:06:24.829 the countries with the number of illegal immigrants in the US, 0:06:24.869 --> 0:06:28.339 number one is Mexico, number 2 is El Salvador, number 0:06:28.339 --> 0:06:29.589 3 is India. 0:06:30.238 --> 0:06:32.220 So there'll be some friction, you know, in the way 0:06:32.220 --> 0:06:33.959 it's done and so on and so forth. You saw 0:06:33.959 --> 0:06:36.279 it with Colombia and all that, that's right. So there 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:42.440 are potential issues uh that could complicate uh relations uh 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:47.269 with the Donald Trump administration, but the biggest complication arises 0:06:47.269 --> 0:06:52.230 from the fact that, you know, in the Biden administration 0:06:52.230 --> 0:06:57.440 which courted India ferociously except except the last year, something 0:06:57.440 --> 0:06:58.959 went wrong in the last year, clearly. 0:06:59.829 --> 0:07:04.679 Uh, saw India as a natural ally against China. 0:07:05.540 --> 0:07:09.959 Uh, Trump doesn't see allies as assets. 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:13.989 Trump sees allies as liabilities. 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:18.809 Seriously, so all he's asking you is, how much are 0:07:18.809 --> 0:07:21.519 you paying me and what have you done for me lately? 0:07:22.190 --> 0:07:25.880 And so even uh he's not going to see India 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:31.160 necessarily as an important ally, uh counterbalancing uh China, for example. 0:07:31.250 --> 0:07:35.160 In fact, one of the problems that India may have 0:07:35.890 --> 0:07:39.649 is that since Donald Trump is a big deal maker, 0:07:40.290 --> 0:07:43.170 he may come to some kind of deal with China. 0:07:43.940 --> 0:07:48.679 And if relations between US and China settle down, then 0:07:48.679 --> 0:07:53.239 the value of India as a geopolitical card goes down. 0:07:54.220 --> 0:07:58.559 And so India, therefore has got to adjust and therefore 0:07:58.559 --> 0:08:01.078 try to see how we can take advantage of these 0:08:01.079 --> 0:08:04.480 changes to ensure that its interests are protected. 0:08:05.179 --> 0:08:08.130 I want to talk about India-China relationship momentarily, but just 0:08:08.130 --> 0:08:11.040 want to stick with in the US, uh, briefly before 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:15.200 we do that. The US is, or rather Donald Trump's 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:18.200 team is keen on getting a deal done between Ukraine 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:20.760 and Russia, but the first step in that direction seems 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:23.959 to be tightening the screw on Russia and easing the screw, including. 0:08:24.369 --> 0:08:27.489 Access to Russian oil, you know, heavy discount that both 0:08:27.489 --> 0:08:30.609 India and China have been benefiting. So how does India 0:08:30.609 --> 0:08:35.049 calibrate its still fairly deep relationship with Russia while dealing 0:08:35.049 --> 0:08:36.619 with the US with this transactional? 0:08:37.979 --> 0:08:41.478 Well, I think for India it's a matter of vital 0:08:41.770 --> 0:08:47.250 national security interests to preserve its relationship with Russia. 0:08:48.099 --> 0:08:50.859 Because at the end of the day, you know, when 0:08:50.859 --> 0:08:54.488 you go through a crisis, we all go through crisis. 0:08:55.250 --> 0:08:58.409 You have to ask yourself, who can you rely upon 0:08:58.409 --> 0:09:02.109 in a crisis. So for example, that if India has 0:09:02.109 --> 0:09:07.750 a problem that appears in the UN Security Council of 0:09:07.750 --> 0:09:12.339 the five permanent members, United States, UK, France, China, Russia, 0:09:12.669 --> 0:09:18.229 the only dependable ally or friend that India has is Russia. 0:09:18.900 --> 0:09:22.140 If you, if India asked Russia to veto something on 0:09:22.140 --> 0:09:25.580 India's behalf, Russia is likely to do so. So you 0:09:25.580 --> 0:09:30.488 watch even the body language and the meetings between uh 0:09:30.489 --> 0:09:34.819 Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Putin, President Putin within Prime 0:09:34.820 --> 0:09:37.780 Minister Narendra Modi and Sergey Lavrov, you can see there's 0:09:37.780 --> 0:09:40.770 a lot of trust that's been built up over there. 0:09:41.380 --> 0:09:44.609 So India is not going to give up its relationship 0:09:44.609 --> 0:09:45.419 with Russia. 0:09:45.909 --> 0:09:50.419 And for India as a net importing oil country, to 0:09:50.419 --> 0:09:53.280 give up access to cheap Russian oil will be a 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:57.059 huge economic price to pay, and I don't see how 0:09:57.059 --> 0:10:01.218 why Indian should pay that economic price. So I think 0:10:01.219 --> 0:10:08.710 they will definitely resist any moves to um ah have 0:10:09.179 --> 0:10:10.978 get by the US to try and get them to 0:10:10.979 --> 0:10:13.049 cut off their ties with Russia. 0:10:13.659 --> 0:10:15.689 And you know, going, you since you want to discuss 0:10:15.690 --> 0:10:21.789 the USIndia relationship. I think it's also important to emphasize 0:10:21.789 --> 0:10:26.510 why why did things go some a bit rough in 0:10:26.510 --> 0:10:29.880 the last year, the Biden administration. Things seem to be, 0:10:30.190 --> 0:10:31.669 you know, going so well. 0:10:32.349 --> 0:10:35.520 And then you had at least 3 points of friction 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:40.049 that emerged. First was, of course, the, uh, I think 0:10:40.049 --> 0:10:44.090 India was surprised how Canada went full blast on going 0:10:44.090 --> 0:10:45.010 after India. 0:10:46.070 --> 0:10:49.579 About the purported assassination of a Canadian citizen. 0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:54.489 And you know, traditionally, Canada would listen to hints from 0:10:54.489 --> 0:10:55.409 Washington DC. 0:10:56.710 --> 0:10:59.849 Didn't the Biden administration tell Canada, go easy, you know, 0:10:59.909 --> 0:11:03.329 India is an important friend. That question must be on 0:11:03.330 --> 0:11:07.270 Indian minds. And then, of course, the sudden removal of 0:11:07.270 --> 0:11:11.150 Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh was also a bit of a 0:11:11.150 --> 0:11:15.179 shock for India, because Sheikh Hasina was a reliable friend 0:11:15.179 --> 0:11:17.989 of India and right now, as you know, she's in India. 0:11:18.849 --> 0:11:23.429 Uh, and that also, frankly, was encouraged uh by the 0:11:23.429 --> 0:11:25.598 United States that we know it's a matter of fact. 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:30.799 And then thirdly, the other thing that surprised me was 0:11:30.799 --> 0:11:35.880 the decision of the Justice Department of uh the Biden 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:37.799 administration to go after Adani. 0:11:38.859 --> 0:11:42.859 I mean, surely enough people in Washington DC knew that, 0:11:43.270 --> 0:11:46.849 you know, Mr. Adani is very close to Prime Minister Modi. 0:11:46.869 --> 0:11:50.789 So suddenly you find a relationship that you thought was 0:11:50.789 --> 0:11:51.590 a good one. 0:11:52.369 --> 0:11:57.809 Uh, got a lot of sand was thrown into the gearbox. 0:11:58.330 --> 0:12:01.150 And so that's why I think India has got to 0:12:01.150 --> 0:12:06.848 really decide, uh, how it balances, it's still, it's still 0:12:06.849 --> 0:12:08.489 going to have good relations with the US, by the way, 0:12:08.580 --> 0:12:12.770 there's no question whatsoever, but how you balance the, how 0:12:12.770 --> 0:12:15.728 you play the balance within US and China. You got 0:12:15.729 --> 0:12:17.650 to recalibrate now. 0:12:18.049 --> 0:12:18.289 Speaking 0:12:18.289 --> 0:12:20.960 of recalibration, let's talk about India and China relationship. 0:12:22.450 --> 0:12:26.799 Yeah, well, I think in the case of the India-China relationship, 0:12:26.919 --> 0:12:31.189 clearly some degree of rethinking is going on. I mean, I, 0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:33.359 I was surprised to learn from you this morning. 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:37.710 That India has allowed the resumption of direct flights between 0:12:37.710 --> 0:12:40.750 India and China. That was a major anomaly. I mean, 0:12:40.789 --> 0:12:43.819 a major anomaly. I mean, the two biggest. 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:48.080 Uh, uh, I mean, apart from Japan, the two biggest 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:50.520 economies in Asia have no direct flights to each other. 0:12:50.609 --> 0:12:53.369 That doesn't make sense, you know. So clearly there was 0:12:53.369 --> 0:12:57.429 a big move and it's part of a gradual recalibration 0:12:57.919 --> 0:13:01.968 driven partly by the fact you by realization you can't 0:13:01.969 --> 0:13:04.209 put all your eggs in the American basket. You can't 0:13:04.210 --> 0:13:05.319 just rely on the 0:13:06.109 --> 0:13:11.789 Uh, United States and at the same time, uh, if 0:13:11.789 --> 0:13:17.659 India's goal is to become a manufacturing economy, no country 0:13:17.659 --> 0:13:22.619 in the world, anywhere, by the way, including United States, Germany, uh, 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:28.189 UK can advance their manufacturing agenda without in one way 0:13:28.190 --> 0:13:32.020 or another getting inputs from China. I mean, the most 0:13:32.020 --> 0:13:34.570 stunning statistic of the 21st century. 0:13:35.270 --> 0:13:39.190 Is that when the 21st century opened in the year 2000. 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:43.349 Uh, China's share of global manufacturing was 5%. 0:13:44.549 --> 0:13:49.830 Uh, by 2030, it will be 45%. Now that's stunning. Now, 0:13:49.950 --> 0:13:53.939 virtually every product in the world that is manufactured, I think, 0:13:54.469 --> 0:13:57.789 in one way or another contains some kind of Chinese 0:13:57.789 --> 0:14:03.520 uh component because that's how indispensable the Chinese manufacturing economy 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:08.659 has begun. And if you, if you closed your eyes, OK, you, you, 0:14:08.710 --> 0:14:11.919 you scrub out the word India, put economy X. 0:14:12.340 --> 0:14:16.020 And you scrub out the word China, you put economy Y. 0:14:16.739 --> 0:14:22.630 And you did a simple cost-benefit calculation. Would economy X 0:14:23.239 --> 0:14:27.599 benefit from closer cooperation in manufacturing economy Y or would 0:14:27.599 --> 0:14:30.039 it be would it be better off doing less with 0:14:30.039 --> 0:14:35.479 economy Y? And any kind of basic cost-benefit calculation will 0:14:35.479 --> 0:14:39.640 show you that India will benefit a lot more by 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:41.349 not necessarily cooperating. 0:14:41.710 --> 0:14:46.960 But taking advantage of China's manufacturing capabilities to enhance its 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:51.400 own manufacturing uh in India. And so to give a 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:54.479 simple and obvious example, India wants to become a big 0:14:54.479 --> 0:15:00.280 manufacturer of iPhones. There is no way you can manufacture 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:05.789 an iPhone without Chinese components. No way, absolutely no way. 0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:09.320 And I can tell you that Apple's reliance. 0:15:10.059 --> 0:15:14.030 Everybody thinks that because of the US China friction. 0:15:14.900 --> 0:15:19.200 Apple has reduced its reliance on Chinese components. If you 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:21.409 studied carefully, it has actually increased. 0:15:22.210 --> 0:15:25.929 Because the, the products in China have become cheaper and 0:15:25.929 --> 0:15:31.609 more competitive, and Apple is all about profits. So clearly, you, you, 0:15:31.650 --> 0:15:36.010 if you really want to enhance your manufacturing capability, and 0:15:36.010 --> 0:15:39.409 I think as you know, some people within the Prime 0:15:39.409 --> 0:15:42.210 Minister Modi's government are coming to realize that they have 0:15:42.210 --> 0:15:44.929 to in one way or another collaborate with China too. 0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:49.690 It is encouraging, uh, absolutely. Uh, you mentioned Apple. My 0:15:49.690 --> 0:15:52.919 understanding is that when Foxconn was initially nudged into assembling 0:15:52.919 --> 0:15:56.890 iPhones in India, the fear, even among Indians was that, 0:15:56.969 --> 0:15:59.090 you know, it may not match the efficiency of Chinese 0:15:59.090 --> 0:16:01.450 manufacturing plants. But now we can see that there's a 0:16:01.450 --> 0:16:04.130 win-win there. You be part of the Chinese supply chain, 0:16:04.210 --> 0:16:07.080 bring in the inputs, bring in Indian labor, train them, 0:16:07.210 --> 0:16:09.419 and now my understanding is that the Apple's yield in 0:16:09.419 --> 0:16:13.140 India is almost as good as it is in China. Uh, so. 0:16:13.530 --> 0:16:16.979 There is a mutually beneficial dynamic there in place. Foxconn 0:16:16.979 --> 0:16:20.179 is happy, India is happy, Chinese components remain in place, uh, 0:16:20.289 --> 0:16:20.409 but 0:16:20.409 --> 0:16:22.919 it has increased India's trade deficit with China. 0:16:23.330 --> 0:16:25.650 It will probably do the same, yes, indeed. Um, so 0:16:25.650 --> 0:16:29.409 that's the irony that India's fear about Chinese trade deficit 0:16:29.409 --> 0:16:31.539 probably got in the way of India joining regional companies 0:16:31.539 --> 0:16:32.809 of economic partnership with. 0:16:33.359 --> 0:16:36.270 Uh, now, again, there's some rethink that maybe that was 0:16:36.270 --> 0:16:40.590 an opportunity lost. You can't just fixate on a bilateral deficit. 0:16:40.630 --> 0:16:42.309 You have to sort of think about your own export 0:16:42.309 --> 0:16:46.309 prowess and how you build it with cooperation, joint ventures, 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:48.260 if you will, with others. Like you sure I see, 0:16:48.309 --> 0:16:52.020 for example, uh, MG cars on the roads of India. 0:16:52.309 --> 0:16:55.630 It's a joint venture between an Indian company and Chinese SAIC. 0:16:56.140 --> 0:16:58.090 So that's the Chinese model in the past worked very 0:16:58.090 --> 0:17:00.900 well for China, and I think India with this recalibration 0:17:01.130 --> 0:17:02.729 is beginning to head in that direction. I think that's 0:17:02.729 --> 0:17:04.089 a welcome development. Yeah, 0:17:04.209 --> 0:17:09.930 but I'm glad you mentioned RCEP because I think all the, again, 0:17:10.290 --> 0:17:16.300 objective econometric studies show that if India joins the RCEP, 0:17:16.410 --> 0:17:18.319 you'll be a net beneficiary. 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:22.899 And India's GNP will gain a boost. I mean, there 0:17:22.900 --> 0:17:27.979 was already a very powerful geopolitical argument uh for India 0:17:27.979 --> 0:17:32.180 to join the RCEP because, you know, if India stays 0:17:32.180 --> 0:17:37.180 out of RCEP, it will lose its ability to integrate 0:17:37.180 --> 0:17:43.089 better with the ASEAN region. And you know, Southeast Asia, uh, 0:17:43.099 --> 0:17:45.369 for only for 2000 years. 0:17:46.439 --> 0:17:51.119 Has been trying to balance China and India, right? And overall, 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:55.030 Indian influence in Southeast Asia has always been very strong 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.319 because out of the 10 countries in Southeast Asia, 9 0:17:58.319 --> 0:18:02.270 have an indic base. Only 1 Vietnam has a scenic base. 0:18:02.520 --> 0:18:08.310 So there's a natural affinity, natural, how do you say, 0:18:08.319 --> 0:18:11.229 complementarity between Southeast Asia and India. 0:18:11.709 --> 0:18:15.359 But what RCEP does is in with India not joining 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:19.040 is that India cuts itself off from Southeast Asia. There's 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:23.560 a manufacturing ecosystem there, very powerful one. And in Southeast Asia, 0:18:23.599 --> 0:18:27.000 of course, by then, uh, by default gets closer uh 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:30.239 to China. So there's real political argument for India to 0:18:30.239 --> 0:18:36.429 join RCP, but more importantly, you know, in the long run, uh, 0:18:36.599 --> 0:18:40.550 India is going to make a vital strategic decision. 0:18:41.219 --> 0:18:43.989 And this is a big strategic decision that only someone 0:18:43.989 --> 0:18:48.708 as strong as Prime Minister Narendra Modi can make that 0:18:48.709 --> 0:18:52.419 do you, in the long run, will the Indian economy 0:18:52.420 --> 0:18:58.589 succeed by being more protectionist or being by being more open? 0:18:58.949 --> 0:19:03.270 And frankly, the main reason why China has succeeded as 0:19:03.270 --> 0:19:06.790 an economy so well is that the Chinese made a 0:19:06.790 --> 0:19:10.979 big strategic decision that the only reason why they suffered. 0:19:11.189 --> 0:19:15.929 The century of humiliation from 1842 to 1949, and the 0:19:15.930 --> 0:19:18.329 reason why they became so weak is because they closed 0:19:18.329 --> 0:19:21.400 their economy and not integrated with the rest of the world. 0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:24.800 And as you know, the Chinese have decided, OK, now 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:28.329 we'll do the opposite. As Xi Jinping said in Davos 0:19:28.329 --> 0:19:32.560 in 2017, we'll be plunge into the ocean of globalization, 0:19:32.650 --> 0:19:36.209 we struggle to swim, we drank water, but we became 0:19:36.209 --> 0:19:37.169 stronger as a result. 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:41.829 And so now Chinese economy by integrating it with the 0:19:41.829 --> 0:19:45.669 rest of the world, has become a remarkably robust and 0:19:45.670 --> 0:19:46.989 strong economy, you know. 0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:50.659 And I think India can do the same because India, 0:19:50.819 --> 0:19:55.859 Indians are naturally competitive. I mean, you look at every 0:19:55.859 --> 0:20:00.260 country in the world, the Indians have migrated to, and 0:20:00.260 --> 0:20:03.699 I can say this with some confidence as aindi. I 0:20:03.699 --> 0:20:06.780 have first cousins, you know, children of my mother's and 0:20:06.780 --> 0:20:14.869 father's siblings all over the world living in Guyana, uh, Suriname, Texas, London, Florida. 0:20:15.609 --> 0:20:23.310 Uh, Nigeria, Ghana, Mumbai, Kolkata, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, every 0:20:23.310 --> 0:20:27.819 corner of the world. I have first cousins and Kyoto, yeah, 0:20:27.910 --> 0:20:31.140 and you know what, they, they're all doing very well. 0:20:32.239 --> 0:20:35.520 They they compete very well, uh, in, in, in, in 0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:39.560 a competitive uh economic uh environment. You can see in 0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:43.438 the United States, which is the most competitive human laboratory 0:20:43.439 --> 0:20:46.020 in the world, uh, the ethnic community with the highest 0:20:46.020 --> 0:20:47.800 per capita income are the Indians. 0:20:48.319 --> 0:20:51.760 So, you know, India, therefore needs to make a very 0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:58.000 powerful strategic decision that India can and will compete. Now, 0:20:58.010 --> 0:21:00.599 of course, when you open up the economy, there will 0:21:00.599 --> 0:21:05.189 be disruptions, there will be difficulties, you know, it's it's, 0:21:05.199 --> 0:21:09.660 it's the same thing that happens when a woman gives birth, right? You, 0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:13.520 you go through labor pains. After the labor pains, you 0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:15.709 end up with a beautiful uh baby. 0:21:16.489 --> 0:21:19.699 So and and that beautiful baby could be a much 0:21:19.699 --> 0:21:22.099 more dynamic competitive Indian economy. 0:21:23.939 --> 0:21:27.250 Sure, uh, we are two Singaporeans sitting here in India. 0:21:27.459 --> 0:21:30.290 So let's talk a little bit about Singapore-India relationship. 0:21:31.770 --> 0:21:35.390 Sure. Well, I think we are, we are very blessed. 0:21:36.329 --> 0:21:41.139 Uh, that early on, uh, all the leaders of, uh, 0:21:41.150 --> 0:21:47.500 Singapore decided that they had to make long-term investments in India. And, 0:21:47.510 --> 0:21:50.750 you know, it, it happened under Mr. Lee Kuan Yew. 0:21:50.829 --> 0:21:54.750 I actually personally accompanied Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, uh, when 0:21:54.750 --> 0:21:57.430 he visited India, and I, all I remember is that 0:21:57.430 --> 0:22:01.150 at that time, I think the Prime Minister was Murai Jayai. 0:22:01.930 --> 0:22:05.419 And, uh, Indira Gandhi was in opposition, so you can 0:22:05.420 --> 0:22:08.290 more or less figure out what year it was. So 0:22:08.290 --> 0:22:11.619 it regularly, Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yeww used to come here, 0:22:11.900 --> 0:22:14.500 come here, but the man who triggered what you call 0:22:14.500 --> 0:22:18.699 the India fever, uh, in Singapore was Prime Minister Goh 0:22:18.699 --> 0:22:23.180 Chok Tong. And you, you mentioned my, uh, memoirs, Living 0:22:23.180 --> 0:22:26.619 the Asian Century. I think I also talk about how 0:22:26.619 --> 0:22:28.260 Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong. 0:22:29.119 --> 0:22:32.910 Uh, you know, worked hard to get India admitted into 0:22:32.910 --> 0:22:37.750 the ASEAN Regional Forum, you know. So over the years, 0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:41.040 a lot of trust has been built up between the 0:22:41.040 --> 0:22:45.989 Indian leaders and, and Singapore. So I think that, uh, 0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:51.069 that long term trust means that we have a very stable, uh, 0:22:51.079 --> 0:22:52.479 long term relationship. 0:22:53.140 --> 0:22:56.979 Uh, between India and Singapore. But at the same time, 0:22:57.060 --> 0:23:00.410 I think it's important for Singapore to realize. 0:23:01.420 --> 0:23:06.650 That the competition for attention of India is growing more 0:23:06.650 --> 0:23:09.930 intense because all you have to do is do a 0:23:09.930 --> 0:23:13.729 count of all the leaders coming to Delhi now to 0:23:13.729 --> 0:23:17.339 court India. It's, it's gone up like this, right? Clearly, 0:23:17.530 --> 0:23:20.880 India's influence is grown. So you cannot take for granted 0:23:20.880 --> 0:23:24.448 that just because we were close relation, have close relations 0:23:24.449 --> 0:23:27.660 in the past, we have close relations in the future, 0:23:27.930 --> 0:23:29.979 we have to reinvent ourselves. 0:23:31.060 --> 0:23:33.719 And continue to work hard to get closer because you 0:23:33.719 --> 0:23:39.199 can see already in the past, uh, relations between Indonesia 0:23:39.199 --> 0:23:43.670 and India were not close, but just a few days ago, uh, 0:23:43.719 --> 0:23:47.478 President Prabowo was invited as the chief guest, uh, of 0:23:47.479 --> 0:23:52.000 the Indian government. So that, that's an example of how 0:23:52.000 --> 0:23:54.530 the competition for India's attention. 0:23:54.979 --> 0:23:56.609 Will grow in the coming years. 0:23:57.140 --> 0:24:00.149 this is a very critical point. Uh, last year, uh, 0:24:00.260 --> 0:24:04.199 several members of Indian Chamber of Commerce were in Singapore, 0:24:04.619 --> 0:24:06.869 and they seem to suggest, I mean, there was a 0:24:06.869 --> 0:24:08.579 push back to what they said, but they seem to 0:24:08.579 --> 0:24:13.239 think that Singapore lacks a credible, coherent strategy, vis a 0:24:13.239 --> 0:24:16.939 vis India, especially with all these um competition for attention, 0:24:16.979 --> 0:24:20.609 if you will. Um, so what should be Singapore's strategy 0:24:20.609 --> 0:24:23.060 in this time when India is being quartered by the 0:24:23.060 --> 0:24:23.609 whole world? 0:24:24.170 --> 0:24:27.619 Well, I think the important thing is to continue working 0:24:27.619 --> 0:24:31.680 in the relationship, and I'm very glad that uh President 0:24:31.680 --> 0:24:39.329 Thaman Shamugratnam came on a state visit to India. I think, uh, probably, uh, 0:24:39.339 --> 0:24:43.959 apart from the two former prime ministers, uh, Mr. Goh 0:24:43.959 --> 0:24:47.420 Chok Tong and Mr. Lee Hsien Loong, uh, I think 0:24:47.420 --> 0:24:52.339 the the third most respected Singaporean figure in, uh, India 0:24:52.339 --> 0:24:53.739 is Thaman Chamratnam. 0:24:54.380 --> 0:24:57.938 There's a lot of uh reverence for him and trust 0:24:57.939 --> 0:25:01.619 in him. So it's good that he came and re-established. 0:25:02.390 --> 0:25:05.589 The close relations, but we also have to keep on 0:25:05.589 --> 0:25:11.589 sending uh visitors and also working hard to find concrete 0:25:11.589 --> 0:25:17.349