1
00:00:06,039 --> 00:00:08,578
Speaker 1: Welcome to COVID time, a podcast series on markets and

2
00:00:08,579 --> 00:00:11,750
Speaker 1: economies from DBS Group Research. I'm Tamir Bei, Chief economist,

3
00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,800
Speaker 1: welcoming you to our 165th episode.

4
00:00:15,609 --> 00:00:18,399
Speaker 1: Today we are delighted to have with us Ambassador Javed

5
00:00:18,399 --> 00:00:22,399
Speaker 1: Ashraf with us. Ambassador Ashraf has had a 3 decade

6
00:00:22,399 --> 00:00:26,090
Speaker 1: plus career in Indian Foreign Services. His last position was

7
00:00:26,090 --> 00:00:30,290
Speaker 1: in Paris, Ambassador of France and Monaco, I believe. And

8
00:00:30,290 --> 00:00:32,689
Speaker 1: I had the pleasure of knowing the ambassador back in

9
00:00:32,689 --> 00:00:34,930
Speaker 1: the days when he was a high commissioner to Singapore.

10
00:00:35,009 --> 00:00:36,529
Speaker 1: Ambassador Javed Ashraf, welcome to Kobe

11
00:00:36,529 --> 00:00:38,409
Speaker 2: time. Well, thank you very much. Delighted to be

12
00:00:38,409 --> 00:00:41,729
Speaker 1: here. It's great to have you. I have lots of

13
00:00:41,729 --> 00:00:43,009
Speaker 1: questions about the here and now.

14
00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,319
Speaker 1: Normally we discuss India in structural long term sense, but

15
00:00:46,319 --> 00:00:49,340
Speaker 1: the near term itself is so fascinating. I'd like to

16
00:00:49,740 --> 00:00:54,540
Speaker 1: start with your last assignment, Europe, and the status of

17
00:00:54,639 --> 00:00:58,439
Speaker 1: India-Europe relationship, given what's going on both inside and outside

18
00:00:58,439 --> 00:00:58,799
Speaker 1: of India.

19
00:00:58,990 --> 00:01:02,240
Speaker 2: That's an excellent um question because it has become even

20
00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,559
Speaker 2: more relevant in 2025 than it was perhaps a few

21
00:01:05,559 --> 00:01:08,518
Speaker 2: years ago. And I'd say that I'd like to answer

22
00:01:08,519 --> 00:01:11,959
Speaker 2: this question in two layers. One is our relationship with

23
00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:13,000
Speaker 2: the European Union.

24
00:01:13,660 --> 00:01:16,179
Speaker 2: And the second is our relationship with member countries.

25
00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:21,330
Speaker 2: With France, of course, India has a very deep, longstanding

26
00:01:21,330 --> 00:01:27,559
Speaker 2: strategic partnership. Perhaps the most comprehensive, steady, consistent partnership we've

27
00:01:27,559 --> 00:01:31,510
Speaker 2: had along with that of with Russian Federation. Um, they,

28
00:01:31,519 --> 00:01:34,440
Speaker 2: we've stood together through thick and thin. They are our

29
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:39,519
Speaker 2: premier defense partner, great support in multilateral institutions, high level

30
00:01:39,519 --> 00:01:44,759
Speaker 2: of political comfort. France is actually a very major actor

31
00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:45,819
Speaker 2: in the Indian economy.

32
00:01:46,199 --> 00:01:49,400
Speaker 2: I must tell you that the, the stock of FDI

33
00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:54,669
Speaker 2: from France between 2015 and 2022 in India, the stock

34
00:01:54,669 --> 00:01:59,019
Speaker 2: of FDI rose 373%. I mean, that's incredible. The next

35
00:01:59,019 --> 00:02:03,269
Speaker 2: highest in the Indo-Pacific was Taiwan with 96%. Uh, trade

36
00:02:03,269 --> 00:02:05,760
Speaker 2: is growing. Trade is of course not country specific since

37
00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:09,519
Speaker 2: it's European Union. Um, it is, um, one of the

38
00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,940
Speaker 2: fastest growing trade European Union has with anyone.

39
00:02:13,538 --> 00:02:16,860
Speaker 2: So I think um overall it is in every domain

40
00:02:16,860 --> 00:02:21,179
Speaker 2: whether we now speak of people to people ties, cooperation

41
00:02:21,179 --> 00:02:26,020
Speaker 2: in areas like digital technology, where we see a great

42
00:02:26,020 --> 00:02:30,779
Speaker 2: deal of philosophical convergence between France and India, but also

43
00:02:30,779 --> 00:02:34,720
Speaker 2: Europe and India in a sense that we both see

44
00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,490
Speaker 2: technology as a key determinant of what the future of

45
00:02:37,490 --> 00:02:38,800
Speaker 2: our society will look like.

46
00:02:39,479 --> 00:02:44,509
Speaker 2: And that means that we are actually positioned somewhere between

47
00:02:44,850 --> 00:02:48,008
Speaker 2: a laissez-faire approach that the United States has, where it's

48
00:02:48,008 --> 00:02:53,559
Speaker 2: principally driven by a few major companies that are innovating, disrupting,

49
00:02:53,850 --> 00:02:56,288
Speaker 2: and driving scale with the help of finance, and there

50
00:02:56,288 --> 00:03:00,529
Speaker 2: is a sort of a state controlled, um, uh digital

51
00:03:00,529 --> 00:03:03,869
Speaker 2: domain equally successful in many ways in China.

52
00:03:04,139 --> 00:03:06,520
Speaker 2: And I think both Europe and India look at this

53
00:03:06,710 --> 00:03:09,250
Speaker 2: as something that must reflect, uh, uh, you know, must

54
00:03:09,250 --> 00:03:15,839
Speaker 2: be open, accessible, free, open, inclusive, um, and must have, uh,

55
00:03:16,139 --> 00:03:19,538
Speaker 2: be underpinned by, you know, public rails that allows for

56
00:03:19,538 --> 00:03:24,100
Speaker 2: private innovation, but that its larger purpose must be to, uh, uh,

57
00:03:24,139 --> 00:03:27,619
Speaker 2: you know, enhance human welfare in life rather.

58
00:03:27,979 --> 00:03:30,029
Speaker 2: And in that sense, that's also driving the way we

59
00:03:30,029 --> 00:03:34,070
Speaker 2: look at AI so it must be technology for larger

60
00:03:34,070 --> 00:03:38,229
Speaker 2: public good. So, but there is a larger geopolitical issue

61
00:03:38,229 --> 00:03:40,470
Speaker 2: that is driving, and here's this.

62
00:03:41,729 --> 00:03:45,330
Speaker 2: Europe for a long time has been falling behind China

63
00:03:45,330 --> 00:03:50,210
Speaker 2: and the United States economically, technologically, in terms of competitiveness.

64
00:03:51,130 --> 00:03:55,029
Speaker 2: Geopolitically, it is facing, it is, you know, buffeted by

65
00:03:55,029 --> 00:04:00,479
Speaker 2: three major powers, uh, Russia, which is sort of hostile

66
00:04:00,479 --> 00:04:05,190
Speaker 2: relationship at war today, uh, China, which in some senses, um,

67
00:04:05,479 --> 00:04:08,899
Speaker 2: is a, they're seen as a predatory power of, uh,

68
00:04:08,919 --> 00:04:14,850
Speaker 2: in market invasion, as it were, an unequal asymmetric relationship, uh,

69
00:04:14,869 --> 00:04:17,600
Speaker 2: systemic differences, geopolitical mistrust.

70
00:04:18,010 --> 00:04:21,609
Speaker 2: And the United States, the transatlantic relation, which was the bedrock,

71
00:04:22,100 --> 00:04:25,480
Speaker 2: that has, uh, in a sense gone adrift, not simply

72
00:04:25,859 --> 00:04:28,579
Speaker 2: because of President Trump, but this has been something in

73
00:04:28,579 --> 00:04:32,099
Speaker 2: the making for quite some time, but not, uh, as

74
00:04:32,100 --> 00:04:36,058
Speaker 2: sharpened and as accelerated as it is now. So Europe

75
00:04:36,059 --> 00:04:41,380
Speaker 2: is also facing internal challenges. I've mentioned, uh, economy, energy,

76
00:04:41,579 --> 00:04:42,540
Speaker 2: cost of living.

77
00:04:42,850 --> 00:04:47,769
Speaker 2: Uh, immigration, uh, there are political shifts taking place, so

78
00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,309
Speaker 2: Europe recognizes that it needs to have its own sovereign voice.

79
00:04:52,010 --> 00:04:56,488
Speaker 2: It must become industrially and economically and technologically sovereign. That's

80
00:04:56,488 --> 00:05:00,250
Speaker 2: its domestic internal strategy, as it were, but externally it

81
00:05:00,250 --> 00:05:04,849
Speaker 2: must diversify its relationships, and India has become a key

82
00:05:04,850 --> 00:05:06,570
Speaker 2: player in that, uh.

83
00:05:07,190 --> 00:05:11,709
Speaker 2: And India and Europe, both, and France and India in particular,

84
00:05:12,070 --> 00:05:17,589
Speaker 2: seek a multipolar world, a multipolar world underpinned by the

85
00:05:17,589 --> 00:05:22,029
Speaker 2: discipline of multilateralism, and I mentioned the word discipline because

86
00:05:22,029 --> 00:05:25,730
Speaker 2: a multipolar world without any guardrails is a chaotic world

87
00:05:26,149 --> 00:05:30,630
Speaker 2: and anchored in international law. This is exactly, and when

88
00:05:30,630 --> 00:05:33,670
Speaker 2: we look at where the world is today, we seek

89
00:05:33,670 --> 00:05:35,149
Speaker 2: a multipolar world too.

90
00:05:35,738 --> 00:05:40,750
Speaker 2: And India as an independent pole in that. Now, we've

91
00:05:40,750 --> 00:05:43,630
Speaker 2: all of us are focused on a certain tension in

92
00:05:43,630 --> 00:05:47,070
Speaker 2: India US relations. People call it a crisis, a setback,

93
00:05:47,100 --> 00:05:50,549
Speaker 2: or whatever. We have also a challenges in our relations

94
00:05:50,549 --> 00:05:53,390
Speaker 2: with China. We have a steady relations with Russia, but

95
00:05:53,390 --> 00:05:57,928
Speaker 2: that is circumscribed by Russia's own, uh, external challenges, in particular,

96
00:05:58,059 --> 00:05:59,910
Speaker 2: the constraints of sanctions around it.

97
00:06:01,010 --> 00:06:04,600
Speaker 2: But, you know, the world is actually, if you look deeper,

98
00:06:05,059 --> 00:06:09,019
Speaker 2: the world is in a sense, the international order that

99
00:06:09,019 --> 00:06:10,380
Speaker 2: it was familiar with.

100
00:06:11,299 --> 00:06:13,089
Speaker 2: Since the end of the Cold War is behind us.

101
00:06:13,820 --> 00:06:16,160
Speaker 2: There's no one argues that we live in the same

102
00:06:16,730 --> 00:06:20,100
Speaker 2: international order. What we will see in the future is,

103
00:06:20,178 --> 00:06:23,820
Speaker 2: is yet uncertain. This is the period of transition, which

104
00:06:23,820 --> 00:06:27,899
Speaker 2: is also a period of turbulence and uncertainty.

105
00:06:28,339 --> 00:06:31,339
Speaker 2: So, as in the financial market in a period of

106
00:06:31,339 --> 00:06:36,579
Speaker 2: uncertainty and volatility, diversify your portfolios, we are seeking a

107
00:06:36,579 --> 00:06:40,980
Speaker 2: diversified portfolio of our relationship that also stems from our

108
00:06:40,980 --> 00:06:44,899
Speaker 2: deep DNA of strategic autonomy. We will be aligned with

109
00:06:44,899 --> 00:06:48,140
Speaker 2: countries on areas of interest, but we are not allied.

110
00:06:48,529 --> 00:06:50,779
Speaker 2: And this is a big difference. So our sense of

111
00:06:50,779 --> 00:06:54,779
Speaker 2: strategic autonomy is absolutely convergent with the sense of strategic

112
00:06:54,779 --> 00:07:00,019
Speaker 2: autonomy in France, for example, but increasingly, Europe's recognition that

113
00:07:00,019 --> 00:07:01,859
Speaker 2: it needs to be strategically autonomous.

114
00:07:02,579 --> 00:07:05,820
Speaker 2: And in this process, we have a very, we are

115
00:07:05,820 --> 00:07:07,940
Speaker 2: not just diversifying geopolitically.

116
00:07:08,690 --> 00:07:12,029
Speaker 2: But think of it this way, people's attention is focused

117
00:07:12,029 --> 00:07:12,489
Speaker 2: on

118
00:07:13,220 --> 00:07:16,260
Speaker 2: The trade tensions between India and the United States.

119
00:07:17,140 --> 00:07:20,390
Speaker 2: But we are also diversifying our trade partnerships.

120
00:07:21,369 --> 00:07:23,760
Speaker 2: And one of the things we are doing is to

121
00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:27,809
Speaker 2: enter into high quality FTAs with a number of key actors.

122
00:07:27,850 --> 00:07:31,239
Speaker 2: We've done that with, uh, UK. We are at an

123
00:07:31,239 --> 00:07:35,549
Speaker 2: advanced stage of negotiations with EU, now our largest trading partner.

124
00:07:36,130 --> 00:07:40,750
Speaker 2: We've done that with Australia, etc. So, Europe is becoming

125
00:07:41,089 --> 00:07:44,720
Speaker 2: suddenly very, very much more important to us. We are

126
00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,170
Speaker 2: becoming much more important to Europe, and I think both

127
00:07:48,170 --> 00:07:51,730
Speaker 2: Sikh 1.8, 1.9 billion people.

128
00:07:52,450 --> 00:07:57,769
Speaker 2: You know, accustomed to living in diversity, wedded to international law,

129
00:07:58,100 --> 00:08:03,570
Speaker 2: multilateralism and rules-based order, and in a sense, um, you know,

130
00:08:03,730 --> 00:08:08,429
Speaker 2: both seeking to enhance their strategic relevance in the evolving

131
00:08:08,429 --> 00:08:14,480
Speaker 2: geopolitical environment, uh, reinforce prosperity in their respective economies, uh,

132
00:08:14,679 --> 00:08:17,709
Speaker 2: are going to do many more things together.

133
00:08:17,959 --> 00:08:18,250
Speaker 1: It's, it's,

134
00:08:18,290 --> 00:08:21,089
Speaker 1: it's fascinating, Ambassador and to take your point on the

135
00:08:21,089 --> 00:08:21,890
Speaker 1: issue of alignment.

136
00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:24,959
Speaker 1: Um, you touched a little bit on trade, but let's

137
00:08:24,959 --> 00:08:28,399
Speaker 1: talk about 3 things in terms of alignment, trade, technology,

138
00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,399
Speaker 1: and climate change. In all these 3 areas, the US

139
00:08:31,399 --> 00:08:33,840
Speaker 1: has become very bilateral in its dealings with the rest

140
00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,159
Speaker 1: of the world. Europe faces certain demands from the US,

141
00:08:36,239 --> 00:08:39,039
Speaker 1: India is facing certain demands from the US. On climate

142
00:08:39,039 --> 00:08:40,960
Speaker 1: change in particular, we can say that for the time being,

143
00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,239
Speaker 1: the US is probably going to walk away from the

144
00:08:43,239 --> 00:08:47,159
Speaker 1: Paris climate treaty any day now and various emission standards

145
00:08:47,159 --> 00:08:48,039
Speaker 1: are being set back.

146
00:08:48,489 --> 00:08:51,968
Speaker 1: So on trade, technology, and climate change, do you see

147
00:08:51,969 --> 00:08:55,239
Speaker 1: equal amount of alignment between Europe and India, or there

148
00:08:55,239 --> 00:08:58,159
Speaker 1: are certain individual imperatives that are not quite fully aligned?

149
00:08:58,369 --> 00:09:02,010
Speaker 2: So, let me, first, um, you know, again, pick up

150
00:09:02,010 --> 00:09:05,530
Speaker 2: that first point you made about US, uh, shift to bilateralism.

151
00:09:05,890 --> 00:09:08,689
Speaker 2: Once again, it's very important to understand that it is

152
00:09:08,690 --> 00:09:12,650
Speaker 2: not just President Trump. I mean, he may be, uh,

153
00:09:12,729 --> 00:09:15,409
Speaker 2: he's not an aberration in a sense, he's a culmination.

154
00:09:16,090 --> 00:09:18,929
Speaker 2: Of a process which began some time back when the

155
00:09:18,929 --> 00:09:25,880
Speaker 2: US began to feel that the international order based on arrangements, agreements,

156
00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:31,369
Speaker 2: institutions of governance, security, trade, finance that it had actually

157
00:09:31,369 --> 00:09:34,409
Speaker 2: underwritten by the US by the United States is no

158
00:09:34,409 --> 00:09:38,289
Speaker 2: longer attractive or useful to it. It now feels that

159
00:09:38,289 --> 00:09:44,010
Speaker 2: it is, these are fetters, not frameworks of international cooperation.

160
00:09:44,369 --> 00:09:47,489
Speaker 2: And that it must rely on the asymmetry of its

161
00:09:47,489 --> 00:09:51,210
Speaker 2: power in a bilateral context. And what it means is,

162
00:09:51,330 --> 00:09:54,409
Speaker 2: as far as President Trump is concerned, what it can

163
00:09:54,409 --> 00:09:59,130
Speaker 2: do in terms of extractive possibilities and perceived grievances. And

164
00:09:59,130 --> 00:10:01,890
Speaker 2: the United States has turned away from many areas of

165
00:10:01,890 --> 00:10:05,799
Speaker 2: multilateral commitment, and one of the most glaring ones is

166
00:10:05,799 --> 00:10:10,209
Speaker 2: climate change. And, um, as far as India and Europe

167
00:10:10,210 --> 00:10:12,150
Speaker 2: are concerned, as I said, that we.

168
00:10:12,929 --> 00:10:18,570
Speaker 2: Recognize that Europe and India need the framework of multilateralism,

169
00:10:19,169 --> 00:10:25,039
Speaker 2: multilateral cooperation, collective endeavors to advance their interests, create more space, uh,

170
00:10:25,049 --> 00:10:27,939
Speaker 2: for themselves in the process. So.

171
00:10:28,710 --> 00:10:32,580
Speaker 2: In terms of uh technology, for example, as I said,

172
00:10:33,039 --> 00:10:39,199
Speaker 2: that we see a great deal of possibilities and convergences in,

173
00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:45,799
Speaker 2: for example, digital technology, artificial intelligence, um, and the more

174
00:10:45,799 --> 00:10:48,079
Speaker 2: we are engaging with each other, the more we are

175
00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:52,640
Speaker 2: able to see our convergences and AI for public good,

176
00:10:52,750 --> 00:10:57,179
Speaker 2: AI driven by larger public interest, um, and.

177
00:10:57,489 --> 00:11:01,238
Speaker 2: That is why Prime Minister Narendra Modi co-chaired the AI

178
00:11:01,239 --> 00:11:04,848
Speaker 2: action summit with President Macron. He was invited to do that.

179
00:11:05,450 --> 00:11:08,530
Speaker 2: We are going to have the year of innovation with

180
00:11:08,530 --> 00:11:12,010
Speaker 2: France next year in India. Uh, India and the EU

181
00:11:12,010 --> 00:11:14,530
Speaker 2: have a Trade and Technology Council, which is the second

182
00:11:14,530 --> 00:11:16,739
Speaker 2: one which they set up after the one with the

183
00:11:16,739 --> 00:11:20,409
Speaker 2: United States. So we recognize that there is enormous room

184
00:11:20,409 --> 00:11:24,189
Speaker 2: for cooperation. And why is that so? It is because.

185
00:11:24,869 --> 00:11:29,109
Speaker 2: We are not using technology as instrument of geopolitical competition

186
00:11:29,109 --> 00:11:33,270
Speaker 2: or domination, neither does Europe do that. Europe also needs

187
00:11:33,270 --> 00:11:37,210
Speaker 2: the scale that India provides, the skills that India provide,

188
00:11:37,469 --> 00:11:43,119
Speaker 2: that collaboration can produce the kind of competitiveness that both need, um, and,

189
00:11:43,309 --> 00:11:46,150
Speaker 2: you know, I will say this, that even in sensitive

190
00:11:46,150 --> 00:11:50,669
Speaker 2: areas like defense technology, France, for example, is willing to

191
00:11:50,669 --> 00:11:54,510
Speaker 2: do far more than even Russia will be doing with us.

192
00:11:54,799 --> 00:12:01,598
Speaker 2: In terms of collaboration, uh, co-development, transfer of technology, etc. Space,

193
00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:05,159
Speaker 2: we're working together on future, there, there's a lot of

194
00:12:05,159 --> 00:12:09,000
Speaker 2: collaboration in clean energy. We see a lot of potential

195
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:13,520
Speaker 2: in artificial intelligence. I mean, determinants of the, uh, future,

196
00:12:13,599 --> 00:12:17,780
Speaker 2: we are working on, you know, biopharma, we're working on, uh,

197
00:12:18,260 --> 00:12:22,619
Speaker 2: Uh, marine technologies and so there is a whole range

198
00:12:22,619 --> 00:12:25,700
Speaker 2: of areas that we see a lot of opportunities and

199
00:12:25,700 --> 00:12:29,020
Speaker 2: we're also working on regulatory framework. There are some differences,

200
00:12:29,099 --> 00:12:32,219
Speaker 2: but there's now, I suppose, a higher level of convergence,

201
00:12:32,460 --> 00:12:36,260
Speaker 2: which is why the India EU FTA isn't just about trade, uh,

202
00:12:36,299 --> 00:12:39,979
Speaker 2: tariff and non-tariff barriers, covers a whole range, of course,

203
00:12:40,219 --> 00:12:44,130
Speaker 2: and that is what you call WTO extra FDA as

204
00:12:44,130 --> 00:12:45,500
Speaker 2: far as climate is concerned.

205
00:12:46,140 --> 00:12:48,760
Speaker 2: Look, I think, you know, this has been a moment

206
00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:50,450
Speaker 2: of a, it's a very

207
00:12:51,450 --> 00:12:54,950
Speaker 2: Shall I say in a a pivotal moment of concern,

208
00:12:55,510 --> 00:12:59,950
Speaker 2: not of transformation in climate discourse because of the United

209
00:12:59,950 --> 00:13:01,429
Speaker 2: States the position.

210
00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:07,090
Speaker 2: But we in India, uh, remain committed to that to

211
00:13:07,090 --> 00:13:10,250
Speaker 2: that to, to climate transition, and we're doing it in

212
00:13:10,250 --> 00:13:13,489
Speaker 2: 3 different ways, uh, 4 actually. The one is that

213
00:13:13,489 --> 00:13:16,590
Speaker 2: increase the, you know, clean and renewable sources of energy

214
00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:20,090
Speaker 2: from all possible sources. Second is on the demand side

215
00:13:20,090 --> 00:13:24,239
Speaker 2: on energy intensive sectors from transportation to industry to agriculture

216
00:13:24,239 --> 00:13:27,968
Speaker 2: shift more and more towards the clean energy. The third

217
00:13:27,969 --> 00:13:29,710
Speaker 2: is improved energy efficiency.

218
00:13:29,909 --> 00:13:33,510
Speaker 2: And fourth is lifestyle changes, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi

219
00:13:33,789 --> 00:13:37,989
Speaker 2: has launched a program called Mission Life, Lifestyle for Environment.

220
00:13:38,270 --> 00:13:41,739
Speaker 2: An International Energy Agency actually did a modeling on that,

221
00:13:42,130 --> 00:13:47,229
Speaker 2: taking policy and behavioral, uh, variables and found there could

222
00:13:47,229 --> 00:13:53,530
Speaker 2: be 20% emissions reduction, uh, just on lifestyle changes by 2030.

223
00:13:53,989 --> 00:13:56,890
Speaker 2: So this is Europe fits in with the European, um,

224
00:13:56,900 --> 00:13:57,849
Speaker 2: agenda as well.

225
00:13:58,140 --> 00:14:00,840
Speaker 2: Uh, we have one concern which concerns the carbon border

226
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,270
Speaker 2: adjustment to that one, yes, and we are actually talking

227
00:14:04,270 --> 00:14:06,429
Speaker 2: about it and we are talking to each other in

228
00:14:06,429 --> 00:14:07,030
Speaker 2: good faith.

229
00:14:07,979 --> 00:14:11,830
Speaker 2: And to see what kind, how do you place India

230
00:14:11,830 --> 00:14:14,909
Speaker 2: in that context? Do you see it in the context

231
00:14:14,909 --> 00:14:18,869
Speaker 2: of the slope of transition curve, or simply look at

232
00:14:18,869 --> 00:14:21,460
Speaker 2: it at a point of time? Uh, and I think

233
00:14:21,460 --> 00:14:24,900
Speaker 2: we can find a solution, uh, to it, because a

234
00:14:24,900 --> 00:14:27,979
Speaker 2: large part of our exports are not energy intensive in

235
00:14:27,979 --> 00:14:31,599
Speaker 2: the first place. Uh, and then I think there can be, uh,

236
00:14:31,630 --> 00:14:36,390
Speaker 2: solutions around it, because, um, another area we are working

237
00:14:36,390 --> 00:14:37,750
Speaker 2: on is in climate finance.

238
00:14:38,369 --> 00:14:41,690
Speaker 2: And this is something which is of great importance to

239
00:14:41,690 --> 00:14:44,080
Speaker 2: uh to, to both countries, but I think all the

240
00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:47,969
Speaker 2: ambitions can only be fulfilled if you actually have innovation

241
00:14:47,969 --> 00:14:51,609
Speaker 2: in climate financing. So I think, you know, we have

242
00:14:51,609 --> 00:14:55,849
Speaker 2: a trade in terms of investment. I've already uh talked

243
00:14:55,849 --> 00:15:00,039
Speaker 2: to you about the way European investments in India are growing, uh,

244
00:15:00,049 --> 00:15:03,090
Speaker 2: with technology and climate. So all of these key areas, yes.

245
00:15:03,940 --> 00:15:06,859
Speaker 1: Uh, Ambassador, as I'm glad that you use the phrase, uh,

246
00:15:06,869 --> 00:15:09,219
Speaker 1: good faith, uh, because just to touch on the US,

247
00:15:09,270 --> 00:15:11,549
Speaker 1: we'll talk about US in greater detail later, but there

248
00:15:11,549 --> 00:15:14,349
Speaker 1: has been a series of agreements in Southeast Asia, uh,

249
00:15:14,429 --> 00:15:17,989
Speaker 1: in recent weeks around the APEC summit, and I feel

250
00:15:17,989 --> 00:15:20,510
Speaker 1: that there actually has not been a great deal of

251
00:15:20,510 --> 00:15:24,190
Speaker 1: good faith in those agreements. It's coercive diplomacy. Countries are

252
00:15:24,190 --> 00:15:26,469
Speaker 1: sort of compelled to sign it with the US. They're

253
00:15:26,469 --> 00:15:29,750
Speaker 1: certainly not FTA plus plus. These are just agreements at

254
00:15:29,750 --> 00:15:32,109
Speaker 1: the executive level. They don't have legislative dimension.

255
00:15:32,609 --> 00:15:35,130
Speaker 1: The FTA discussion that you were talking about between India

256
00:15:35,130 --> 00:15:37,609
Speaker 1: and EU are at a whole different level of seriousness

257
00:15:37,609 --> 00:15:41,440
Speaker 1: and depth than anything else. Um, Ambassador, you touched on Russia.

258
00:15:41,460 --> 00:15:43,809
Speaker 1: I'd like to go there a bit because certainly Europe

259
00:15:43,809 --> 00:15:48,330
Speaker 1: sits very uncomfortably in its views on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

260
00:15:48,909 --> 00:15:52,840
Speaker 1: India has expressed its autonomy and decision making on this issue.

261
00:15:53,039 --> 00:15:54,719
Speaker 1: How does India and Europe deal with

262
00:15:54,719 --> 00:15:55,119
Speaker 1: this issue?

263
00:15:55,239 --> 00:15:57,880
Speaker 2: No, it's a very interesting, um, point. And first, of course,

264
00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,729
Speaker 2: we'll come back to this US agreement. So this is

265
00:16:00,729 --> 00:16:03,719
Speaker 2: a very, uh, important area that you've touched upon.

266
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,690
Speaker 2: Uh, first, let me say that, uh, you know, we

267
00:16:07,690 --> 00:16:11,309
Speaker 2: have a very clear and consistent position on the issue

268
00:16:11,309 --> 00:16:14,489
Speaker 2: of war itself. And the.

269
00:16:15,330 --> 00:16:19,309
Speaker 2: The importance of adherence to the principles of UN Charter,

270
00:16:20,169 --> 00:16:25,609
Speaker 2: respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, and the resolution of

271
00:16:25,609 --> 00:16:29,849
Speaker 2: issues without recourse to force, uh, we, I think, have

272
00:16:29,849 --> 00:16:32,690
Speaker 2: made that very clear to Russia. We've made that very

273
00:16:32,690 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 2: clear to Ukraine, and I think we have excellent ongoing conversations,

274
00:16:37,090 --> 00:16:37,849
Speaker 2: even if they don't.

275
00:16:38,900 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 2: Grab headlines, uh, which we don't seek with both sides.

276
00:16:43,820 --> 00:16:49,080
Speaker 2: We've also had very good engagement with, uh, with Europe and,

277
00:16:49,380 --> 00:16:51,340
Speaker 2: and I can tell you that, um.

278
00:16:52,239 --> 00:16:55,820
Speaker 2: The conversations that we've had.

279
00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,109
Speaker 2: are not about why do you have a relationship with

280
00:16:59,109 --> 00:17:02,559
Speaker 2: Russia or why are you buying oil from Russia. They're

281
00:17:02,559 --> 00:17:06,099
Speaker 2: not comfortable about it. I can understand, and we understand.

282
00:17:07,170 --> 00:17:11,040
Speaker 2: The pain that Europe is going through, the anxieties, the fears,

283
00:17:11,329 --> 00:17:13,810
Speaker 2: the cost that they have to pay, because that war

284
00:17:13,810 --> 00:17:17,569
Speaker 2: is on their continent. And, you know, for you, if

285
00:17:17,569 --> 00:17:21,810
Speaker 2: anyone tries to minimize that or tries to sort of

286
00:17:21,810 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 2: play down that level of emotions about these things in Europe,

287
00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,530
Speaker 2: then they're, they're not being sensitive or empathetic to the

288
00:17:30,530 --> 00:17:34,569
Speaker 2: European sentiments, whatever be the cause, etc. the geopolitics around it.

289
00:17:35,550 --> 00:17:38,150
Speaker 2: So we do have these discussions on how we can

290
00:17:38,150 --> 00:17:41,030
Speaker 2: resolve these issues with France. I can tell you it's

291
00:17:41,030 --> 00:17:45,209
Speaker 2: a very constructive dialogue on what would it take to

292
00:17:45,910 --> 00:17:48,270
Speaker 2: end the war, not on a battlefield, which it will

293
00:17:48,270 --> 00:17:50,709
Speaker 2: not end on the battlefield, but on the, on a

294
00:17:50,709 --> 00:17:53,629
Speaker 2: negotiating table. That's the only two ways you resolve it.

295
00:17:54,390 --> 00:17:58,709
Speaker 2: Um, we, they also recognize that we do not seek,

296
00:17:58,910 --> 00:18:02,469
Speaker 2: and I want to emphasize this point, that they recognize

297
00:18:02,469 --> 00:18:06,209
Speaker 2: that we do not seek a geopolitical advantage.

298
00:18:07,339 --> 00:18:11,660
Speaker 2: In the way this war evolves, we do not wish

299
00:18:11,660 --> 00:18:15,139
Speaker 2: to see one, you know, that, uh, this should be

300
00:18:15,140 --> 00:18:20,339
Speaker 2: the undermining of the Western um order, or that the

301
00:18:20,339 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 2: Western countries should.

302
00:18:22,670 --> 00:18:27,390
Speaker 2: And get weakened, etc. is, or that we must gain,

303
00:18:27,479 --> 00:18:31,119
Speaker 2: you know, geopolitical ascendancy out of it. Some countries may

304
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,919
Speaker 2: want to do that, um, out in Asia or elsewhere,

305
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 2: but that is not how we look at it, and

306
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:41,989
Speaker 2: they understand that. They recognize also that we have compulsions,

307
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:46,140
Speaker 2: which are not just related to energy or to defense

308
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,880
Speaker 2: linkages that go back 70 years, and our dependence on

309
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:50,829
Speaker 2: Russia for that.

310
00:18:51,209 --> 00:18:55,889
Speaker 2: But that there are very serious geopolitical considerations of what

311
00:18:55,890 --> 00:18:58,459
Speaker 2: it would do if we were to

312
00:18:59,900 --> 00:19:04,379
Speaker 2: Diminish or dilute our relations with Russia for India's geopolitical

313
00:19:04,380 --> 00:19:09,459
Speaker 2: challenges in a very sensitive continental neighborhood that we have.

314
00:19:09,979 --> 00:19:13,300
Speaker 2: In addition to that, I know that some European countries

315
00:19:13,300 --> 00:19:17,780
Speaker 2: also recognize that we can be a trusted interlocutor when

316
00:19:17,780 --> 00:19:20,339
Speaker 2: the right time is there, because there are not many

317
00:19:20,339 --> 00:19:24,859
Speaker 2: countries in the world which are trusted by Europe and Russia.

318
00:19:26,010 --> 00:19:28,349
Speaker 2: And this is something which we have said we can

319
00:19:28,349 --> 00:19:32,489
Speaker 2: be very happily, uh, be a medium through which we

320
00:19:32,489 --> 00:19:36,449
Speaker 2: can pass on information, make suggestions, etc.

321
00:19:36,810 --> 00:19:36,958
Speaker 1: Has

322
00:19:36,959 --> 00:19:38,849
Speaker 1: this resonated with the Europeans? Yes, they do.

323
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:44,530
Speaker 2: They do. It absolutely does, um, and, uh, they all,

324
00:19:44,569 --> 00:19:48,139
Speaker 2: and we are not going to overplay our capacity to

325
00:19:48,140 --> 00:19:50,930
Speaker 2: influence the course, but they know that we will convey

326
00:19:50,930 --> 00:19:53,369
Speaker 2: messages in good faith, uh, to Russia.

327
00:19:53,750 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 2: That they would listen to us, that we are trusted

328
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,959
Speaker 2: in what we say, what we come back with to

329
00:19:58,959 --> 00:20:03,439
Speaker 2: Europe will be an honest representation. So, you know, the, uh,

330
00:20:03,569 --> 00:20:05,959
Speaker 2: with China, for example, they may not have the same

331
00:20:05,959 --> 00:20:08,879
Speaker 2: kind of a trust factor as they would do with us.

332
00:20:09,199 --> 00:20:12,829
Speaker 2: And these are the little areas in which we seek convergences.

333
00:20:13,189 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 2: And we also recognize that, you know, while we deal

334
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:19,379
Speaker 2: with this issue, we cannot look at the broader long

335
00:20:19,380 --> 00:20:20,770
Speaker 2: term geopolitical.

336
00:20:21,290 --> 00:20:26,109
Speaker 2: Uh, overlook those geopolitical trends and the both the space

337
00:20:26,109 --> 00:20:29,810
Speaker 2: and the need for Europe and India to work more

338
00:20:29,810 --> 00:20:30,208
Speaker 2: closely

339
00:20:30,209 --> 00:20:35,670
Speaker 1: in terms of United Nations resolutions or sanctions or, you know,

340
00:20:36,170 --> 00:20:39,349
Speaker 1: call for action by various member countries in response to

341
00:20:39,569 --> 00:20:42,469
Speaker 1: what's happening in Russia and Ukraine, India remains fully aligned with,

342
00:20:43,619 --> 00:20:48,069
Speaker 2: you know, we, no UN Security Council resolution will pass because,

343
00:20:48,170 --> 00:20:50,969
Speaker 2: you know, Russia will veto it. China will veto it.

344
00:20:52,489 --> 00:20:56,930
Speaker 2: We do not ever under with any country subscribe to

345
00:20:56,930 --> 00:20:59,150
Speaker 2: unilateral sanctions.

346
00:21:00,310 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 2: As a policy decision.

347
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:07,650
Speaker 2: What could happen is that those sanctions can circumscribe.

348
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:12,680
Speaker 2: Or limit our ability to engage in a particular economic transaction.

349
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,959
Speaker 2: And that is, you know, for example,

350
00:21:16,890 --> 00:21:21,659
Speaker 2: If they're all financial transactions in, you know, let's say

351
00:21:21,660 --> 00:21:25,739
Speaker 2: dollar terms or euro terms are prohibited with a certain

352
00:21:25,739 --> 00:21:29,660
Speaker 2: entity or a certain group of entities or a country.

353
00:21:30,420 --> 00:21:33,458
Speaker 2: It would become impossible for us to, or very difficult

354
00:21:33,459 --> 00:21:35,140
Speaker 2: for us to conduct the transaction.

355
00:21:35,859 --> 00:21:39,929
Speaker 2: But that is very different. That is a market driven condition,

356
00:21:40,270 --> 00:21:43,719
Speaker 2: very different from saying that because the United States or Europe.

357
00:21:44,660 --> 00:21:45,630
Speaker 2: Has

358
00:21:46,489 --> 00:21:50,010
Speaker 2: Uh, impose sanctions on any particular country, we will subscribe

359
00:21:50,010 --> 00:21:54,250
Speaker 2: to that. We've never done it, and uh we do

360
00:21:54,250 --> 00:21:57,488
Speaker 2: not subscribe to that kind of, uh, but if there

361
00:21:57,489 --> 00:21:58,429
Speaker 2: is a UN.

362
00:22:00,290 --> 00:22:04,810
Speaker 2: Security Council resolution or a UN resolution of any kind,

363
00:22:04,910 --> 00:22:07,849
Speaker 2: then we are going to make every effort to make

364
00:22:07,849 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 2: sure that they are well implemented.

365
00:22:09,250 --> 00:22:13,729
Speaker 1: We touched upon US even while discussing Europe and uh

366
00:22:13,729 --> 00:22:16,209
Speaker 1: Russia and so might as well bring the US into

367
00:22:16,209 --> 00:22:21,239
Speaker 1: this discussion. Uh, very interesting and challenging times in the

368
00:22:21,239 --> 00:22:24,050
Speaker 1: India-US relationship. What's your take on what's happened this

369
00:22:24,050 --> 00:22:24,369
Speaker 1: year?

370
00:22:24,770 --> 00:22:26,619
Speaker 2: So it's going on at two levels.

371
00:22:27,170 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 2: If you see the institutional level, um, defense in particular,

372
00:22:32,790 --> 00:22:38,130
Speaker 2: or other areas of cooperation at the operational and functional level, uh,

373
00:22:38,459 --> 00:22:43,540
Speaker 2: those engagements are going on. Um, we've just signed or

374
00:22:43,540 --> 00:22:47,699
Speaker 2: renewed an updated 10 year defense framework agreement.

375
00:22:48,650 --> 00:22:53,609
Speaker 2: While we have these other set of issues, and that's

376
00:22:53,609 --> 00:22:58,630
Speaker 2: at the higher political level, which really uh boils down to.

377
00:23:00,130 --> 00:23:02,329
Speaker 2: You know, differences on trade.

378
00:23:03,349 --> 00:23:08,339
Speaker 2: And then of course their punitive tariffs on account of

379
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:10,198
Speaker 2: purchase of Russian oil.

380
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,319
Speaker 2: That's one set of problems, and I think there is

381
00:23:14,319 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 2: the other issue which was like a black swan event,

382
00:23:17,719 --> 00:23:21,770
Speaker 2: which is, uh, you know, the terrorist attack in Pahal Gap,

383
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,930
Speaker 2: which was directed, uh, you know, in a very sort

384
00:23:24,930 --> 00:23:28,399
Speaker 2: of a specific religion, people from, you know, the Hindu

385
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 2: members of, uh, uh, uh, of, of the country, and, um.

386
00:23:33,790 --> 00:23:35,989
Speaker 2: And our response through Operation Sindhor.

387
00:23:36,930 --> 00:23:40,979
Speaker 2: Uh, and President Trump, of course, uh, uh, you know,

388
00:23:41,060 --> 00:23:44,459
Speaker 2: in a sense takes credit and said that he had

389
00:23:44,459 --> 00:23:48,540
Speaker 2: threatened us with trade sanctions or tariffs to bring us

390
00:23:48,540 --> 00:23:51,698
Speaker 2: to the negotiating or to end the war. And this

391
00:23:51,699 --> 00:23:56,420
Speaker 2: is something which, uh, is in our view, factually not correct,

392
00:23:56,819 --> 00:24:00,339
Speaker 2: which we have repeatedly stated, and that we infer has

393
00:24:00,339 --> 00:24:01,719
Speaker 2: also been a source of.

394
00:24:02,650 --> 00:24:03,629
Speaker 2: Concern, I mean,

395
00:24:04,439 --> 00:24:08,599
Speaker 2: It's not a publicly stated, but there is that irritant

396
00:24:08,599 --> 00:24:11,839
Speaker 2: in that relationship. That's what inferences that, and this is

397
00:24:11,839 --> 00:24:14,660
Speaker 2: a difference, but what he, they have clearly stated is

398
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:19,599
Speaker 2: that we will apply 25% tariff on your on imports

399
00:24:19,599 --> 00:24:25,250
Speaker 2: from India because India has high tariffs or because we have, uh,

400
00:24:25,839 --> 00:24:28,479
Speaker 2: we don't allow certain kinds of imports, so we have

401
00:24:28,479 --> 00:24:31,540
Speaker 2: non-tariff barriers, agriculture sector, agriculture sector, for example.

402
00:24:32,150 --> 00:24:35,239
Speaker 2: And that 25% tariff is on account of India's purchase

403
00:24:35,239 --> 00:24:36,300
Speaker 2: of Russian oil.

404
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:44,219
Speaker 2: I think these are more manifestations of a perceived grievances.

405
00:24:45,109 --> 00:24:51,479
Speaker 2: And uh the, uh, you know, expectations that India's response

406
00:24:51,479 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 2: to President Trump and the United States, uh, would be.

407
00:24:57,219 --> 00:25:02,379
Speaker 2: Accommodative of the kind that you have referred to in

408
00:25:02,380 --> 00:25:06,099
Speaker 2: a sense that they would in a sense reflect capitulation

409
00:25:06,540 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: in asymmetric offer to the United States that would validate

410
00:25:12,089 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 2: President Trump's assertion or US assertion of its infinite power

411
00:25:17,699 --> 00:25:21,099
Speaker 2: uh to extract benefits from other countries. And this is

412
00:25:21,099 --> 00:25:23,579
Speaker 2: something which is not going to happen with India. So

413
00:25:23,579 --> 00:25:26,219
Speaker 2: we've been engaged in negotiations we have made.

414
00:25:26,859 --> 00:25:31,179
Speaker 2: Excellent offers. We are, there are some outstanding issues. There

415
00:25:31,180 --> 00:25:35,218
Speaker 2: are red lines for us which, uh, contains pertains to

416
00:25:35,219 --> 00:25:39,530
Speaker 2: agriculture sector, medium and small scale industries where we're also seeing,

417
00:25:39,579 --> 00:25:42,300
Speaker 2: you know, in what way we can get them to

418
00:25:42,300 --> 00:25:46,109
Speaker 2: understand our red lines, and then the red line which

419
00:25:46,109 --> 00:25:49,900
Speaker 2: relate relating to our sovereign choices. Now, you may end

420
00:25:49,900 --> 00:25:53,339
Speaker 2: up with a situation where US prohibitions and sanctions make

421
00:25:53,339 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 2: it difficult for us to get Russian oil.

422
00:25:56,469 --> 00:25:59,729
Speaker 2: Because of the various kinds of sanctions on shipping, for example,

423
00:25:59,920 --> 00:26:03,530
Speaker 2: shipping and on the two major suppliers left and Luke Oil.

424
00:26:04,439 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 2: But if that comes down and you see that it

425
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,959
Speaker 2: will probably come down, but we may see that there

426
00:26:09,959 --> 00:26:12,959
Speaker 2: will be some flexibility. But we are very clear that

427
00:26:12,959 --> 00:26:15,719
Speaker 2: there are these two red lines. These two red lines

428
00:26:15,719 --> 00:26:18,510
Speaker 2: are with regard to some of the most sensitive sectors

429
00:26:18,510 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 2: of our economy, which in the case of the United

430
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:22,650
Speaker 2: States also they try to protect.

431
00:26:23,069 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 2: And with regard to the sovereign choices we will make

432
00:26:26,839 --> 00:26:30,819
Speaker 2: with who we deal with, what relationships we have, and

433
00:26:30,839 --> 00:26:34,948
Speaker 2: it is our efforts to ensure that we have, uh,

434
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 2: we can, we remain open, remain engaged, we do not

435
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 2: get into a war of words or posturing, uh, the

436
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:48,640
Speaker 2: negotiations remain highly, um, uh, you know, frequent, intense.

437
00:26:49,050 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 2: And we hope that we can find uh some resolution

438
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:56,540
Speaker 2: to it. But then our relations with the United States.

439
00:26:57,770 --> 00:27:02,489
Speaker 2: Is not, it doesn't exist in isolation, you see, uh,

440
00:27:02,770 --> 00:27:06,050
Speaker 2: you know, some of the worst challenges are being faced

441
00:27:06,050 --> 00:27:08,729
Speaker 2: by some of the closest friends and allies of the

442
00:27:08,729 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 2: United States. Europe has been at the receiving end. Um,

443
00:27:13,250 --> 00:27:17,708
Speaker 2: the first two countries to get the letters on tariffs

444
00:27:17,810 --> 00:27:21,449
Speaker 2: in April were Korea and Japan, the two countries that

445
00:27:21,449 --> 00:27:24,688
Speaker 2: have been the longest and the most steadfast allies of

446
00:27:24,689 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 2: the United States.

447
00:27:26,020 --> 00:27:30,448
Speaker 2: And then you enter, you get into an agreement, which

448
00:27:30,750 --> 00:27:41,209
Speaker 2: involves commitments of investments, purchases of energy, and non-reciprocal tariff concessions.

449
00:27:41,469 --> 00:27:45,589
Speaker 2: Which are hard to enforce with Europe. If you say

450
00:27:45,589 --> 00:27:48,270
Speaker 2: that I will buy 7, Europe is committed to buying

451
00:27:48,270 --> 00:27:53,829
Speaker 2: $750 billion of uh of of oil and gas or

452
00:27:53,829 --> 00:27:58,030
Speaker 2: energy and we will invest $600 billion how will the

453
00:27:58,030 --> 00:28:04,629
Speaker 2: regulator or European Commission force European companies to invest $600 billion?

454
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:09,229
Speaker 2: So these are good at headlines, but they're not enforceable,

455
00:28:09,270 --> 00:28:11,910
Speaker 2: and my sense is that people are just playing for time,

456
00:28:12,239 --> 00:28:13,079
Speaker 1: devoid of good faith,

457
00:28:14,109 --> 00:28:17,198
Speaker 2: as they're saying, OK, we will, we make these agreements,

458
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,989
Speaker 2: we take some of the heat off, get some tariff reduction,

459
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 2: but then we will go in and, you know, and

460
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,640
Speaker 2: we'll see how it goes 4 years, 5 years down

461
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 2: the line. Uh, some investments were going to be made

462
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,989
Speaker 2: in the United States, any, in any case, and with

463
00:28:30,989 --> 00:28:34,420
Speaker 2: tariffs coming up, some of that will make economic sense.

464
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 2: But, uh, the, uh, but in the long run, they

465
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 2: will probably, you know, this may not have any relevance

466
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 2: or any uh enforceability as compared to a well negotiated

467
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 2: treaty or agreement.

468
00:28:49,339 --> 00:28:51,859
Speaker 2: Uh, which have a legal mandate in the two countries,

469
00:28:51,900 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: and it can impose high political costs.

470
00:28:54,810 --> 00:28:59,119
Speaker 1: Ambassad, absolutely. Uh, I traveled through Seoul and Tokyo recently,

471
00:28:59,180 --> 00:29:03,020
Speaker 1: and I realized that there are corporations in Japan and Korea,

472
00:29:03,339 --> 00:29:05,380
Speaker 1: which derive a very large part of the profit from

473
00:29:05,380 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: the US and they have been lobbying their governments to

474
00:29:08,180 --> 00:29:10,699
Speaker 1: just sign a deal so that they can go back

475
00:29:10,699 --> 00:29:13,209
Speaker 1: to some degree of stability in the trade relationship.

476
00:29:13,719 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 1: I didn't feel that the public in Japan and Korea

477
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,630
Speaker 1: are aligned with the corporate sector at all. And these

478
00:29:20,630 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 1: are not very stable political systems these days. Both governments

479
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: stand on fairly shaky grounds. So the political cost, as

480
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,550
Speaker 1: far as the public opinion is concerned, it could be substantial. So,

481
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,199
Speaker 1: to that point, what is your sense of public opinion

482
00:29:34,199 --> 00:29:38,380
Speaker 1: in India? Indians have huge diaspora in the US. Indian

483
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,959
Speaker 1: nationals are CEOs of some of the biggest and best

484
00:29:41,959 --> 00:29:42,619
Speaker 1: American companies.

485
00:29:43,079 --> 00:29:46,449
Speaker 1: Indians have always felt a great deal of proximity to

486
00:29:46,449 --> 00:29:48,810
Speaker 1: the US. Has it been dented

487
00:29:48,810 --> 00:29:49,310
Speaker 1: this year?

488
00:29:49,489 --> 00:29:52,469
Speaker 2: I think, um, you're absolutely right, and it isn't just

489
00:29:52,469 --> 00:29:57,890
Speaker 2: because of trade tariffs, a sense that that President Trump

490
00:29:57,890 --> 00:29:59,010
Speaker 2: is being coercive.

491
00:29:59,500 --> 00:30:03,250
Speaker 2: It's also because of the position he took on the

492
00:30:03,250 --> 00:30:07,650
Speaker 2: Operation Sindhor and the terrorist attack in India and his

493
00:30:07,650 --> 00:30:13,839
Speaker 2: courtship of uh Pakistan, but worse of Pakistan's military leader, um,

494
00:30:13,859 --> 00:30:16,979
Speaker 2: and trying to equate them with the, you know, democratically

495
00:30:16,979 --> 00:30:20,500
Speaker 2: elected prime minister or a third time of the largest

496
00:30:20,500 --> 00:30:24,739
Speaker 2: democracy in the world. So this, um, and plus you

497
00:30:24,739 --> 00:30:27,900
Speaker 2: see the, the barriers coming up on H-1B visa.

498
00:30:28,199 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 2: The racism that you see now pretty rampant in the

499
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 2: United States, the, the kind of hate that is directed

500
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:38,790
Speaker 2: against Indians, that is all having a very serious impact

501
00:30:40,119 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 2: on the trust.

502
00:30:41,569 --> 00:30:45,630
Speaker 2: And the goodwill that the United States enjoyed in India

503
00:30:45,780 --> 00:30:48,290
Speaker 2: for a long period of time. There is still the

504
00:30:48,290 --> 00:30:52,449
Speaker 2: lingering memories of the Cold War, the mistrust, but that

505
00:30:52,449 --> 00:30:55,609
Speaker 2: was in a sense receding with the new generation of Indians,

506
00:30:55,890 --> 00:30:58,650
Speaker 2: you know, with the median age of 28. They haven't

507
00:30:58,650 --> 00:31:01,359
Speaker 2: seen the Cold War and the mistrust in our partnership,

508
00:31:01,609 --> 00:31:04,369
Speaker 2: the estrangement, estrangement that we had.

509
00:31:05,199 --> 00:31:09,130
Speaker 2: But suddenly out of nowhere, you see again, the loss

510
00:31:09,130 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 2: of trust. So even if we have a trade deal,

511
00:31:11,890 --> 00:31:16,130
Speaker 2: even if the tariffs come down from 50% to 19%, 18%,

512
00:31:16,410 --> 00:31:20,150
Speaker 2: which will make us competitive again, um, a lot of that,

513
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,569
Speaker 2: and despite all the efforts of those who have, you know,

514
00:31:23,729 --> 00:31:28,250
Speaker 2: worked on the relationship, I think public, uh, sentiment has

515
00:31:28,250 --> 00:31:31,829
Speaker 2: been seriously dented as much by what he's done with.

516
00:31:32,650 --> 00:31:33,739
Speaker 2: Against India.

517
00:31:35,310 --> 00:31:38,790
Speaker 2: As by the manner in which he has tried to

518
00:31:38,790 --> 00:31:42,790
Speaker 2: equate India and Pakistan in an issue that on an

519
00:31:42,790 --> 00:31:46,988
Speaker 2: issue that is deeply, deeply sensitive, uh, to Indians. So

520
00:31:46,989 --> 00:31:49,469
Speaker 2: I think that will take some time, but there is

521
00:31:49,469 --> 00:31:52,989
Speaker 2: a great deal of support in India for the position

522
00:31:52,989 --> 00:31:54,310
Speaker 2: the government has taken.

523
00:31:55,250 --> 00:31:59,670
Speaker 2: That we are standing up for what is our interest,

524
00:32:00,410 --> 00:32:04,050
Speaker 2: that we are, um, not caving in as many countries

525
00:32:04,050 --> 00:32:08,300
Speaker 2: have caved in, and that we are open to

526
00:32:08,979 --> 00:32:13,589
Speaker 2: You know, deepening the relationship further, resolving these trade related issues,

527
00:32:14,060 --> 00:32:17,319
Speaker 2: but that our red lines are important. And I tell you,

528
00:32:17,339 --> 00:32:21,579
Speaker 2: certain diversification has started taking place. So in this period

529
00:32:21,579 --> 00:32:25,719
Speaker 2: from April to September, our exports to the United States

530
00:32:26,020 --> 00:32:29,619
Speaker 2: from some data that I read is down 37%, but

531
00:32:29,619 --> 00:32:31,099
Speaker 2: our overall exports.

532
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 2: Including on the items that have been worst affected by

533
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 2: the United States tariffs, our overall exports have actually increased.

534
00:32:40,329 --> 00:32:43,540
Speaker 2: And this shows that perhaps this may have been a

535
00:32:43,540 --> 00:32:47,099
Speaker 2: great wake up call for India to both develop internal

536
00:32:47,099 --> 00:32:52,849
Speaker 2: resilience in terms of supply chain resilience, industrial resilience, technological resilience,

537
00:32:52,900 --> 00:32:56,579
Speaker 2: and a self-reliance, but that we need to have a

538
00:32:56,579 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 2: much more diversified, um, portfolio of, uh, economic and geopolitical partnerships.

539
00:33:04,099 --> 00:33:07,290
Speaker 1: Ambassador, I'll share with you an acronym. So in April, uh,

540
00:33:07,459 --> 00:33:10,849
Speaker 1: when the reciprocal tariff mayhem was taking place, we came

541
00:33:10,849 --> 00:33:13,250
Speaker 1: up with a play on the word POTUS called TOTUS,

542
00:33:13,699 --> 00:33:16,099
Speaker 1: Trade Outside the United States, T O T S. And

543
00:33:16,099 --> 00:33:18,859
Speaker 1: our point at that time was 89% of global trade

544
00:33:18,859 --> 00:33:20,219
Speaker 1: happens outside the US.

545
00:33:20,910 --> 00:33:24,050
Speaker 1: US will remain a consequential partner for us, but perhaps

546
00:33:24,050 --> 00:33:27,670
Speaker 1: to your point, we will look for a diversified plane

547
00:33:27,709 --> 00:33:30,829
Speaker 1: in the Tota's world. As the months went by, I

548
00:33:30,829 --> 00:33:35,310
Speaker 1: realized that TNOTA stands for things other than trade, talent, technology,

549
00:33:35,430 --> 00:33:35,969
Speaker 1: and tourism.

550
00:33:36,750 --> 00:33:40,890
Speaker 1: Are you seeing, um, Indians sort of devote some of

551
00:33:40,890 --> 00:33:44,540
Speaker 1: their tourism dollar and their education dollar to the non- destination?

552
00:33:44,739 --> 00:33:49,459
Speaker 2: Oh yes, there has been a precipitous decline in the

553
00:33:49,459 --> 00:33:51,660
Speaker 2: number of student visa applications.

554
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,569
Speaker 2: To the United States, which, as you know, was the

555
00:33:55,569 --> 00:33:59,770
Speaker 2: largest destination by a long margin. Almost everyone we know

556
00:33:59,770 --> 00:34:02,890
Speaker 2: has had education in the United States. There has been

557
00:34:02,890 --> 00:34:07,189
Speaker 2: a precipitous decline. There has been also out of fear

558
00:34:07,410 --> 00:34:11,169
Speaker 2: and out of anxiety, a drop in, uh, tourism or

559
00:34:11,169 --> 00:34:14,919
Speaker 2: travel to the United States. And here's something, an important

560
00:34:14,919 --> 00:34:19,790
Speaker 2: and very interesting factoid. According to the US Department of Commerce,

561
00:34:20,169 --> 00:34:21,270
Speaker 2: India was.

562
00:34:21,739 --> 00:34:25,830
Speaker 2: Till last year, the 4th largest source of tourists.

563
00:34:26,530 --> 00:34:31,580
Speaker 2: In the United States after Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom.

564
00:34:33,030 --> 00:34:36,939
Speaker 2: Those relationships, you understand, but per capita spending by Indians

565
00:34:36,939 --> 00:34:37,750
Speaker 2: were the highest.

566
00:34:38,748 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 2: Um, so it's going to affect that. What I'm seeing

567
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:47,579
Speaker 2: is very interesting, is that European countries are now saying.

568
00:34:49,118 --> 00:34:50,118
Speaker 2: Come and study here.

569
00:34:50,958 --> 00:34:53,688
Speaker 2: And, and come and work over here, we will give you,

570
00:34:53,729 --> 00:34:59,888
Speaker 2: and last year, France introduced a five-year multiple entry Schengen visa.

571
00:35:00,919 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 2: For any Indian student who's done master's in France, even

572
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 2: if he had done master's in India, but had studied

573
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,760
Speaker 2: for one year in France and was recognized as a

574
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 2: French degree, would be eligible for a 5 year multi-entry

575
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:20,149
Speaker 2: Schengen visa. That gives that person so much space. Um,

576
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:23,659
Speaker 2: and this is something which they specifically carved out for India.

577
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,939
Speaker 2: So a lot of other countries are going to grab this.

578
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:28,379
Speaker 2: We will also.

579
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,229
Speaker 2: be looking at, you know, so many different, so migration

580
00:35:32,229 --> 00:35:37,389
Speaker 2: and mobility with other countries. Many are interested in Tokyo,

581
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:39,840
Speaker 2: I mean, sorry, Japan is very keen on that.

582
00:35:40,439 --> 00:35:43,939
Speaker 2: And on the trade front, you will see a very

583
00:35:44,159 --> 00:35:47,750
Speaker 2: intensify high level of intensification, not just of with the

584
00:35:47,750 --> 00:35:51,399
Speaker 2: European Union, but also if you see, we will revisit

585
00:35:51,399 --> 00:35:57,419
Speaker 2: our um existing CECAs comprehensive Economic cooperation agreement with Japan

586
00:35:57,419 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 2: and Korea, with uh uh ASEAN, with uh Singapore, and

587
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,060
Speaker 2: try to update them and bring them to speed with

588
00:36:05,379 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 2: uh uh what the current realities are, but also in

589
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:08,899
Speaker 2: terms of.

590
00:36:09,439 --> 00:36:14,069
Speaker 2: Building supply chain resilience, building, uh, you know, investment corridors,

591
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 2: tech corridors, all of these things which are going to

592
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:22,159
Speaker 2: drive a mobility, uh, possibilities. So these, uh, sort of

593
00:36:22,159 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 2: things are now, you know, diversification was inevitable, and I

594
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:31,479
Speaker 2: say this, that you can already sense how multilateral, multilateralism

595
00:36:31,479 --> 00:36:36,790
Speaker 2: is changing. When TPP, uh, was torn by President Trump in.

596
00:36:38,790 --> 00:36:41,129
Speaker 2: Round one, round one. What came out of it? TPP

597
00:36:41,129 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 2: didn't die. It became CPTPP. It, someone else took the leadership.

598
00:36:46,199 --> 00:36:49,820
Speaker 2: Japan took the leadership, brought everybody around. It exists.

599
00:36:50,739 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 2: Now you see UK

600
00:36:52,500 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 1: with no Pacific connection wants to be part of CPTPP

601
00:36:55,459 --> 00:36:58,949
Speaker 2: and EU is talking about it. So imagine if CPTPP,

602
00:36:59,060 --> 00:37:03,739
Speaker 2: EU and UK come together. Just imagine what kind of

603
00:37:03,739 --> 00:37:09,060
Speaker 2: a trading block. So you will see new FTAs, expansion

604
00:37:09,060 --> 00:37:13,659
Speaker 2: in FTAs, and interlocking of FTAs or, or, or economic

605
00:37:13,659 --> 00:37:17,620
Speaker 2: unions as people try to deal with these uncertainties to

606
00:37:17,620 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 2: lock in.

607
00:37:19,739 --> 00:37:25,370
Speaker 2: Commitments, especially those that continue to believe in multilateral trading agreements.

608
00:37:25,780 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 1: Ambassador, the country that talks a lot about rules-based order

609
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:34,779
Speaker 1: and multilateral trade agreements is China. So let's move from

610
00:37:34,780 --> 00:37:37,939
Speaker 1: one challenging relationship to another challenging relationship. So, give us

611
00:37:37,939 --> 00:37:40,729
Speaker 1: a sense of how does India deal with China at

612
00:37:40,729 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 1: the

613
00:37:42,110 --> 00:37:44,649
Speaker 1: Many levels of comfort and discomfort that exist.

614
00:37:45,350 --> 00:37:48,830
Speaker 2: No, it's a, it's a, it's probably our foremost challenge. So,

615
00:37:48,949 --> 00:37:52,929
Speaker 2: you know, if you look at it objectively, uh, China.

616
00:37:54,090 --> 00:37:59,169
Speaker 2: Is a neighbor with which we have a, uh, disputed

617
00:37:59,169 --> 00:38:05,929
Speaker 2: boundary or unsettled boundary of 3500 kilometers.

618
00:38:06,889 --> 00:38:12,330
Speaker 2: We have, uh, mistrust. We have had a history of conflict. Um,

619
00:38:12,689 --> 00:38:16,169
Speaker 2: so we see for many in China is a is

620
00:38:16,169 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 2: a geopolitical, economic, and security challenge, the foremost geopolitical, economic,

621
00:38:22,050 --> 00:38:26,209
Speaker 2: and security challenge. We have an unsettled boundary. We have

622
00:38:26,209 --> 00:38:32,229
Speaker 2: a massive trade deficit. 35% of India's trade deficit is

623
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:33,589
Speaker 2: on account of China.

624
00:38:34,070 --> 00:38:40,510
Speaker 2: Um, we have, uh, concerns regarding transboundary rivers, about the

625
00:38:40,510 --> 00:38:45,199
Speaker 2: flow of those, uh, transboundary rivers into India, water share

626
00:38:45,199 --> 00:38:51,479
Speaker 2: data sharing, uh, but also the, uh, our region of, uh,

627
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:52,659
Speaker 2: so it isn't just.

628
00:38:53,659 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 2: These bilateral issues, it's also about uh China's relationships in

629
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:01,110
Speaker 2: our neighborhood, or which is a source of concern for

630
00:39:01,110 --> 00:39:05,070
Speaker 2: us and which reflects a degree of mistrust on both sides.

631
00:39:05,550 --> 00:39:11,030
Speaker 2: And then at the global level, so bilateral, regional global level.

632
00:39:11,820 --> 00:39:14,540
Speaker 2: There is a perception in India, and, and there is

633
00:39:14,540 --> 00:39:19,439
Speaker 2: evidence to suggest that, that, uh, China has been resisting

634
00:39:19,850 --> 00:39:23,739
Speaker 2: accommodation of India in the global architecture. For example, when

635
00:39:23,739 --> 00:39:28,449
Speaker 2: it resisted India's entry into nat, you know, nuclear supplies Group,

636
00:39:28,739 --> 00:39:33,129
Speaker 2: or hasn't been openly or or hasn't been supportive of

637
00:39:33,129 --> 00:39:38,139
Speaker 2: India's claim for permanent membership of the reformed UN Security Council.

638
00:39:38,830 --> 00:39:43,310
Speaker 2: Uh, or when it objects to the listing of well

639
00:39:43,310 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 2: known international terrorists or terrorist organizations in the UN sanctions,

640
00:39:50,270 --> 00:39:54,589
Speaker 2: UNSC sanctions Committee list, and there is, I mean, open

641
00:39:54,590 --> 00:39:57,370
Speaker 2: evidence of that, then there is a concern.

642
00:39:58,149 --> 00:40:02,469
Speaker 2: Uh, in India, obviously, the collusion or the relationship between

643
00:40:02,469 --> 00:40:06,549
Speaker 2: Pakistan and, and China, particularly with regard to nuclear and

644
00:40:06,550 --> 00:40:08,070
Speaker 2: conventional military powers.

645
00:40:09,139 --> 00:40:11,629
Speaker 2: He's also been a source of great concern. So if

646
00:40:11,629 --> 00:40:15,149
Speaker 2: you see, I've listed a long list of, um, you know,

647
00:40:15,709 --> 00:40:20,550
Speaker 2: regional bi bilateral, regional global challenges, our geopolitical, economic, and

648
00:40:20,550 --> 00:40:24,310
Speaker 2: security issues, but at the same time we recognize.

649
00:40:25,290 --> 00:40:29,790
Speaker 2: That we are two large countries, two ancient civilizations together

650
00:40:29,790 --> 00:40:36,250
Speaker 2: account for uh 3 billion people or 2.8 billion people, uh, that, uh.

651
00:40:37,100 --> 00:40:39,750
Speaker 2: In some ways, we will be the two key contributors

652
00:40:39,750 --> 00:40:43,350
Speaker 2: to global growth. We accept, you know, seeing China's rise

653
00:40:43,350 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 2: as a major industrial and technological power.

654
00:40:49,479 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 2: But through all these difficulties of the past 5 years,

655
00:40:54,449 --> 00:40:58,250
Speaker 2: When we had Doklam in 2017, where we had the

656
00:40:58,250 --> 00:41:03,879
Speaker 2: Galvan in 2020, we've maintained, if not a relationship, but

657
00:41:04,219 --> 00:41:05,819
Speaker 2: continuity in communication.

658
00:41:06,709 --> 00:41:08,760
Speaker 2: At diplomatic and military level.

659
00:41:09,489 --> 00:41:10,669
Speaker 2: To de-escalate

660
00:41:12,070 --> 00:41:17,388
Speaker 2: Uh, tensions there, uh, in the border region, restore peace

661
00:41:17,389 --> 00:41:23,989
Speaker 2: and tranquility, uh, and eventually try to disengage from the border.

662
00:41:24,030 --> 00:41:26,429
Speaker 2: And once there is peace and tranquility that we can

663
00:41:26,429 --> 00:41:31,149
Speaker 2: restore a, a some degree of normalcy. I think we

664
00:41:31,149 --> 00:41:36,388
Speaker 2: both need to work and, uh, more on these issues, uh,

665
00:41:36,590 --> 00:41:40,030
Speaker 2: particularly on building greater mutual trust.

666
00:41:40,449 --> 00:41:45,009
Speaker 2: And that can really happen when we start addressing mutual concerns.

667
00:41:45,379 --> 00:41:49,149
Speaker 2: I think we both need to reassure each other, uh,

668
00:41:49,159 --> 00:41:51,889
Speaker 2: and particularly as a bigger power China needs that we

669
00:41:51,889 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 2: do not see each other's rise as fundamentally inimical to

670
00:41:56,300 --> 00:42:00,340
Speaker 2: the other party's interest. Uh, we have to restore more

671
00:42:00,340 --> 00:42:04,139
Speaker 2: people to people engagement because India and China are neighbors,

672
00:42:04,179 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 2: but we are strangers as people to each other. And

673
00:42:07,979 --> 00:42:10,100
Speaker 2: we have to find a modus vivendi.

674
00:42:10,729 --> 00:42:15,310
Speaker 2: To do more on the economic side, because our own

675
00:42:15,770 --> 00:42:20,909
Speaker 2: ambitions and our vision for a really industrialized India.

676
00:42:23,870 --> 00:42:27,649
Speaker 2: Will involve a certain degree of engagement with China because

677
00:42:27,659 --> 00:42:34,729
Speaker 2: of the dominance of the upstream uh technology products capacities

678
00:42:34,729 --> 00:42:38,270
Speaker 2: in the global value chain and increasingly so and, well,

679
00:42:38,310 --> 00:42:41,830
Speaker 2: it has doubled since 2000. Uh, a number of studies

680
00:42:41,830 --> 00:42:44,189
Speaker 2: will tell you that they are the key player in

681
00:42:44,189 --> 00:42:48,750
Speaker 2: the critical bottleneck neck products in the global value chain.

682
00:42:49,070 --> 00:42:51,270
Speaker 2: So that's those, so how do you work?

683
00:42:51,739 --> 00:42:58,060
Speaker 2: To restore peace and tranquility, ease tensions, and expand, uh,

684
00:42:58,070 --> 00:43:03,830
Speaker 2: opportunities of cooperation and try to build mutual trust. Perhaps

685
00:43:03,830 --> 00:43:11,529
Speaker 2: a change geopolitical environment, um, should enable that process to continue, uh,

686
00:43:11,550 --> 00:43:14,229
Speaker 2: or to proceed. We have seen a certain easing of

687
00:43:14,229 --> 00:43:19,479
Speaker 2: tension between the two countries since October 2024.

688
00:43:19,959 --> 00:43:25,100
Speaker 2: Uh, when, uh, Prime Minister and President, uh, Xi met, um,

689
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:29,678
Speaker 2: and then, uh, we've seen that in Tanjin also. We've

690
00:43:29,679 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 2: had some, you know, ministerial level exchanges as well.

691
00:43:33,500 --> 00:43:36,500
Speaker 2: Um, and so we expect China, frankly, to be more

692
00:43:36,500 --> 00:43:41,780
Speaker 2: sensitive to our interests, more sensitive to, uh, our concerns

693
00:43:41,780 --> 00:43:46,860
Speaker 2: on security, uh, and trade and economy. And I think

694
00:43:46,860 --> 00:43:50,899
Speaker 2: it will be beneficial for China also, notwithstanding the fact

695
00:43:50,899 --> 00:43:52,739
Speaker 2: that it has become such a major power.

696
00:43:53,989 --> 00:43:58,270
Speaker 2: Given the increasing headwinds it is facing with some of

697
00:43:58,270 --> 00:44:00,370
Speaker 2: its traditionally strong partners.

698
00:44:01,270 --> 00:44:06,679
Speaker 2: To create a climate of trust and cooperation, and for

699
00:44:06,679 --> 00:44:08,919
Speaker 2: us to do our part also in that.

700
00:44:09,689 --> 00:44:15,689
Speaker 2: And not just discuss our bilateral issues, but our regional engagement,

701
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:20,100
Speaker 2: so that we recognize that some of those issues need

702
00:44:20,100 --> 00:44:24,299
Speaker 2: to be addressed and reconciled. And remember, and I, and I,

703
00:44:24,370 --> 00:44:28,810
Speaker 2: and I was in Chengdu, uh, last month for an India, uh,

704
00:44:28,820 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 2: China track two dialogue. There is interest in China to

705
00:44:34,850 --> 00:44:36,819
Speaker 2: improve relations, normalize relations.

706
00:44:37,219 --> 00:44:39,219
Speaker 2: There is also interest in India, and that is why

707
00:44:39,219 --> 00:44:41,580
Speaker 2: this track to was taking place in a physical form

708
00:44:41,580 --> 00:44:42,739
Speaker 2: after so many years.

709
00:44:43,649 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 2: And the point I also made is that

710
00:44:48,379 --> 00:44:51,629
Speaker 2: 1998 nuclear tests between

711
00:44:52,250 --> 00:44:54,610
Speaker 2: In India had led to a level of freeze in

712
00:44:54,610 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 2: India-US relations, which is far deeper than whatever we've had

713
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,459
Speaker 2: in our relations with China in the recent.

714
00:45:03,290 --> 00:45:06,250
Speaker 2: And there was a high level of mistrust earlier. There

715
00:45:06,250 --> 00:45:09,290
Speaker 2: used to be a sense of hostility towards the US that,

716
00:45:09,350 --> 00:45:14,439
Speaker 2: but we, in 1971, US had the 7th Fleet, you know,

717
00:45:14,889 --> 00:45:18,509
Speaker 2: in Bay of Bengal, right in our backyard in support

718
00:45:18,510 --> 00:45:20,050
Speaker 2: of Pakistan.

719
00:45:20,729 --> 00:45:21,060
Speaker 2: But

720
00:45:22,300 --> 00:45:24,899
Speaker 2: We address the underlying concerns.

721
00:45:25,639 --> 00:45:32,889
Speaker 2: Technology denial regime, geopolitical trust, expanded cooperation in sensitive areas,

722
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,729
Speaker 2: US support for India's rise.

723
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:37,659
Speaker 2: In and of itself

724
00:45:38,489 --> 00:45:43,209
Speaker 2: Without expecting us to play the US script, that is

725
00:45:43,209 --> 00:45:44,529
Speaker 2: what led to the transformation.

726
00:45:45,399 --> 00:45:48,500
Speaker 2: But in the there was another element which was that

727
00:45:48,510 --> 00:45:50,209
Speaker 2: our human contacts have been so

728
00:45:50,209 --> 00:45:50,649
Speaker 2: high,

729
00:45:51,010 --> 00:45:52,169
Speaker 1: which is not the case with China,

730
00:45:52,290 --> 00:45:52,409
Speaker 2: which

731
00:45:52,409 --> 00:45:55,388
Speaker 2: is not the case with China. So you have seen

732
00:45:55,389 --> 00:45:57,689
Speaker 2: that people are familiar with the United States. There's an

733
00:45:57,689 --> 00:46:00,928
Speaker 2: aspirational US that, you know, people went and studied there.

734
00:46:01,010 --> 00:46:05,030
Speaker 2: There were some study 100,000 Indian PhDs in the US.

735
00:46:05,169 --> 00:46:09,290
Speaker 2: You've got 4.5, 5 million people with that. So all

736
00:46:09,290 --> 00:46:10,850
Speaker 2: of that has helped.

737
00:46:12,199 --> 00:46:15,830
Speaker 2: As a bridge between the two countries in a very

738
00:46:15,830 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 2: intangible way. And we don't have that with China. So

739
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,939
Speaker 2: how do we turn the page?

740
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 2: And I think what we have agreed upon as a

741
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 2: set of future action is on two parallel tracks, that

742
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:36,580
Speaker 2: we will try for an early harvest on the boundary question.

743
00:46:36,679 --> 00:46:40,860
Speaker 2: We've agreed on mechanisms for peace and tranquility.

744
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:44,870
Speaker 2: On our border, but at the same time explore, uh,

745
00:46:44,879 --> 00:46:47,679
Speaker 2: what we can do economically and we have, there are,

746
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:50,439
Speaker 2: there are trade barriers for us in China. It's not

747
00:46:50,439 --> 00:46:55,379
Speaker 2: just competitiveness which has made this very asymmetric trade uh,

748
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:59,679
Speaker 2: it is, for example, Indian software companies, IT companies can

749
00:46:59,679 --> 00:47:01,879
Speaker 2: only service foreign companies in China.

750
00:47:03,030 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 2: Right, so these are barriers and which if they address,

751
00:47:07,030 --> 00:47:09,669
Speaker 2: and then, you know, it would open up a whole

752
00:47:09,669 --> 00:47:12,750
Speaker 2: range of possibilities. So I think we are looking at

753
00:47:12,750 --> 00:47:18,229
Speaker 2: a two-track approach. It'll require patience, perseverance, and a certain

754
00:47:18,229 --> 00:47:21,549
Speaker 2: degree of resilience on both sides, also to be able

755
00:47:21,550 --> 00:47:24,370
Speaker 2: to deal with occasional black swan events or certain.

756
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:28,679
Speaker 2: Uh, crisis moments to continue on this path, but I

757
00:47:28,679 --> 00:47:32,159
Speaker 2: think it is important as India looks to its ambitions

758
00:47:32,159 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 2: to be a developed country, a secure and a peaceful

759
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,639
Speaker 2: and stable periphery is an important.

760
00:47:39,909 --> 00:47:45,929
Speaker 2: Underlying factor to pursue your um economic and geopolitical ambitions.

761
00:47:46,510 --> 00:47:50,350
Speaker 1: Uh, Ambassador, I fully understand India's reservation of the US

762
00:47:50,350 --> 00:47:53,790
Speaker 1: getting involved in India-Pakistan issues, but as you pointed out,

763
00:47:53,909 --> 00:47:55,830
Speaker 1: as far as the border is concerned, as far as

764
00:47:55,830 --> 00:47:59,310
Speaker 1: China's involvement in recent skirmishes between India and Pakistan is concerned,

765
00:47:59,500 --> 00:48:02,790
Speaker 1: China has played a role, but does it have any

766
00:48:02,790 --> 00:48:04,750
Speaker 1: role to play in settling India-Pakistan

767
00:48:04,750 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 1: issues?

768
00:48:05,709 --> 00:48:08,729
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I, I mean, if, uh, you see.

769
00:48:09,669 --> 00:48:14,909
Speaker 2: Historically, uh, there have been many attempts by India to

770
00:48:14,909 --> 00:48:17,389
Speaker 2: resolve those issues with Pakistan.

771
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:22,500
Speaker 2: I think, no, I mean, in any conflict management.

772
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,489
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, the two parties have

773
00:48:25,489 --> 00:48:28,569
Speaker 2: to agree to resolve those conflicts. I mean, you've seen

774
00:48:28,570 --> 00:48:33,090
Speaker 2: that with Russia and Ukraine. Any number of efforts that

775
00:48:33,090 --> 00:48:37,489
Speaker 2: have been made, um, have been, uh, you know, unproductive

776
00:48:37,489 --> 00:48:38,169
Speaker 2: or fruitless.

777
00:48:40,070 --> 00:48:44,419
Speaker 2: So we've signed in 73 similar agreement, of course, uh,

778
00:48:44,429 --> 00:48:48,679
Speaker 2: recognizes that both sides issues have to be resolved bilaterally.

779
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:53,860
Speaker 2: We've had uh back channel, front channel, many discussions with Pakistan.

780
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 2: Some of the problems we faced, I mean, and I

781
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,639
Speaker 2: think if you go get down to the core issues,

782
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:03,879
Speaker 2: every prime minister, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has made

783
00:49:03,879 --> 00:49:04,379
Speaker 2: an effort.

784
00:49:04,889 --> 00:49:09,139
Speaker 2: To normalize relations, at least ease tensions, create a climate

785
00:49:09,139 --> 00:49:12,179
Speaker 2: of peace and cooperation. If not, we don't have to

786
00:49:12,179 --> 00:49:14,580
Speaker 2: be the closest friends or the best friends forever, but

787
00:49:14,580 --> 00:49:18,129
Speaker 2: you can have a and less adversarial, more peaceful relations,

788
00:49:18,139 --> 00:49:20,819
Speaker 2: and all prime ministers have tried that. The problem in

789
00:49:20,820 --> 00:49:24,860
Speaker 2: Pakistan has been that the relationship with India is also

790
00:49:24,860 --> 00:49:31,110
Speaker 2: a function of domestic, uh, power competition between civil, uh,

791
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:34,060
Speaker 2: civilian parties and civilian institutions.

792
00:49:34,889 --> 00:49:40,790
Speaker 2: Military and the militants, and the military always gains in

793
00:49:40,790 --> 00:49:43,669
Speaker 2: power when there is hostility with India.

794
00:49:44,870 --> 00:49:47,979
Speaker 2: At the expense, it gains power at the expense of

795
00:49:48,270 --> 00:49:52,399
Speaker 2: political parties or civilian civil society or civilian institutions.

796
00:49:53,300 --> 00:49:58,699
Speaker 2: And it also co-opts and works with the militants. So

797
00:49:58,699 --> 00:50:03,840
Speaker 2: there are 3 sets of actors militants, military, the civil society,

798
00:50:03,979 --> 00:50:08,859
Speaker 2: or the political parties, and the militants and the military

799
00:50:08,860 --> 00:50:11,020
Speaker 2: gain when there is hostility towards India.

800
00:50:11,969 --> 00:50:16,379
Speaker 2: And if there is peace, they would obviously the civil

801
00:50:16,379 --> 00:50:20,299
Speaker 2: society democratic forces will gain in a sentence, and it's

802
00:50:20,300 --> 00:50:22,020
Speaker 2: the same that applies with Afghanistan.

803
00:50:23,739 --> 00:50:27,340
Speaker 2: That and it has in a sense come to haunt them, right.

804
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,570
Speaker 2: But as it did, by the way, when Taliban was

805
00:50:31,570 --> 00:50:34,610
Speaker 2: first in power, they refused to recognize the Durrand Line.

806
00:50:35,620 --> 00:50:37,379
Speaker 2: What role can China play?

807
00:50:38,540 --> 00:50:40,969
Speaker 2: I think the only role China can play.

808
00:50:41,580 --> 00:50:46,239
Speaker 2: is to persuade Pakistan that it is not in Pakistan's interest.

809
00:50:47,389 --> 00:50:54,030
Speaker 2: To continue this policy of open hostility with India, use of, um,

810
00:50:54,590 --> 00:50:59,428
Speaker 2: of terrorist organizations as, uh, to, to, to have a

811
00:50:59,429 --> 00:51:02,389
Speaker 2: proxy war with India to, as, you know, and it

812
00:51:02,389 --> 00:51:05,469
Speaker 2: isn't just about the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. I mean.

813
00:51:05,919 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 2: They have President Musharraf and other leaders used to say,

814
00:51:08,639 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 2: and they say it even now, that we will continue

815
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,530
Speaker 2: to bleed India with 1000 cuts. I remember that, yes,

816
00:51:14,959 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 2: so that is something has become a raison d'etre for

817
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:22,280
Speaker 2: Pakistan that we exist only.

818
00:51:23,790 --> 00:51:25,259
Speaker 2: In antithesis to India.

819
00:51:26,179 --> 00:51:29,419
Speaker 2: So if there is peaceful relations with India, do we

820
00:51:29,419 --> 00:51:31,979
Speaker 2: have a right to exist as an independent country, which is,

821
00:51:32,459 --> 00:51:35,889
Speaker 2: so it's so deeply ingrained. So Jammu and Kashmir is

822
00:51:35,889 --> 00:51:38,020
Speaker 2: a symbol of that thinking.

823
00:51:38,790 --> 00:51:42,750
Speaker 2: And in order to keep a country glued together, you

824
00:51:42,750 --> 00:51:47,739
Speaker 2: always need a larger external threat to keep you united.

825
00:51:48,149 --> 00:51:50,550
Speaker 2: How long this will play out and as long as

826
00:51:50,550 --> 00:51:55,449
Speaker 2: the military continues to seek or get benefit from this strategy,

827
00:51:55,510 --> 00:51:57,989
Speaker 2: it will be very hard for India and Pakistan to

828
00:51:57,989 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 2: reconcile with each other, but China can, if it were

829
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:02,310
Speaker 2: able to.

830
00:52:02,889 --> 00:52:05,959
Speaker 2: I mean, in a sense, it's a major benefactor, persuade

831
00:52:05,959 --> 00:52:08,770
Speaker 2: Pakistan that it is not in Pakistan's long-term interest or

832
00:52:08,770 --> 00:52:12,049
Speaker 2: the region's interest for Pakistan to pursue this path.

833
00:52:13,340 --> 00:52:19,159
Speaker 2: And or make its efforts, it's aid, its military support

834
00:52:19,159 --> 00:52:22,669
Speaker 2: conditional upon Pakistan chewing this path.

835
00:52:23,939 --> 00:52:27,800
Speaker 2: Then maybe they may be more amenable or more open

836
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,100
Speaker 2: to reconciliation with India.

837
00:52:31,090 --> 00:52:32,850
Speaker 1: But you remain guarded in your

838
00:52:32,850 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 1: optimism,

839
00:52:33,820 --> 00:52:38,889
Speaker 2: uh, yes, and because we've had, uh, you know, so many, uh,

840
00:52:38,899 --> 00:52:41,620
Speaker 2: different phases of engagement.

841
00:52:42,300 --> 00:52:47,580
Speaker 2: Uh, with Pakistan, uh, as sometimes at during Prime Minister

842
00:52:47,580 --> 00:52:53,179
Speaker 2: Ajpai's time and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's time, um, at

843
00:52:53,179 --> 00:52:57,819
Speaker 2: the back channel level, which was very serious sustained dialogue

844
00:52:57,820 --> 00:52:59,939
Speaker 2: we've had, and you worked under both, yes, I've worked

845
00:52:59,939 --> 00:53:02,139
Speaker 2: on both, and the prime, I'm talking about Prime Minister

846
00:53:02,139 --> 00:53:04,699
Speaker 2: Vajpai's time, you know, I worked more recently with the

847
00:53:04,699 --> 00:53:06,459
Speaker 2: two prime ministers, but

848
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:10,448
Speaker 2: You know, every, and I've looked at the history, every

849
00:53:10,449 --> 00:53:14,719
Speaker 2: prime minister recognizes the need to put this behind so

850
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:18,820
Speaker 2: that they can look at the larger Indian, India's larger

851
00:53:18,820 --> 00:53:24,199
Speaker 2: interests of growth, prosperity, inclusion, and peace, and play its

852
00:53:24,199 --> 00:53:25,879
Speaker 2: rightful role in the, in the world.

853
00:53:26,739 --> 00:53:30,250
Speaker 2: But each time it is in a sense, um.

854
00:53:31,510 --> 00:53:37,270
Speaker 2: Uh, stored by various attacks. Sometimes there are terrorist attacks

855
00:53:37,270 --> 00:53:39,250
Speaker 2: when there is progress in the relationship.

856
00:53:40,229 --> 00:53:43,800
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a.

857
00:53:44,770 --> 00:53:45,989
Speaker 2: Spontaneous visit.

858
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:48,060
Speaker 2: To Lahore

859
00:53:48,840 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 2: Um, on December 25, 2015.

860
00:53:54,030 --> 00:53:57,279
Speaker 2: We were returning from Moscow. We stopped in Kabul. Kabul,

861
00:53:57,469 --> 00:54:02,030
Speaker 2: he inaugurated the new parliament building, and then he had

862
00:54:02,030 --> 00:54:05,879
Speaker 2: a conversation with Prime Minister Sharif, who was in Lahore

863
00:54:06,110 --> 00:54:09,830
Speaker 2: for his granddaughter's wedding, and we decided to stop en route.

864
00:54:09,909 --> 00:54:12,989
Speaker 2: It was a bold gesture.

865
00:54:13,790 --> 00:54:14,020
Speaker 2: Right?

866
00:54:15,419 --> 00:54:18,429
Speaker 2: This is 25th December. What happens on 3rd January?

867
00:54:19,090 --> 00:54:22,330
Speaker 2: An attack at the air base in Patancourt. I mean,

868
00:54:22,409 --> 00:54:26,330
Speaker 2: I can give you a series of instances where efforts

869
00:54:26,330 --> 00:54:28,810
Speaker 2: have been made to thwart this. There was a time

870
00:54:28,810 --> 00:54:33,929
Speaker 2: during when Nawaz Shari was elected in 2013, um, with

871
00:54:33,929 --> 00:54:38,090
Speaker 2: a significant majority. At that time, Pakistan was facing severe

872
00:54:38,090 --> 00:54:42,879
Speaker 2: power shortage and gas shortage, and, and he asked Prime

873
00:54:42,879 --> 00:54:45,330
Speaker 2: Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh for help in that.

874
00:54:45,750 --> 00:54:48,229
Speaker 2: And we said yes we can, we have, we can,

875
00:54:48,350 --> 00:54:51,550
Speaker 2: we can connect the grid to India's grid. We can

876
00:54:51,550 --> 00:54:55,110
Speaker 2: connect the gas pipeline, and I was, I mean, personally

877
00:54:55,110 --> 00:54:58,009
Speaker 2: seen that and was working on it, but once again,

878
00:54:58,110 --> 00:55:03,589
Speaker 2: I mean, forces within Pakistan thwarted it. So we have

879
00:55:03,590 --> 00:55:07,468
Speaker 2: a situation where it is becoming difficult now if they

880
00:55:07,469 --> 00:55:08,169
Speaker 2: can uh.

881
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:11,929
Speaker 2: China can play a role, which I'm not sure they

882
00:55:11,929 --> 00:55:14,790
Speaker 2: will or they will want to do it. They're willing

883
00:55:14,790 --> 00:55:17,570
Speaker 2: to do it or they have the capacity to do it. Uh,

884
00:55:17,689 --> 00:55:21,009
Speaker 2: so ultimately it will still boil down to seeing how

885
00:55:21,010 --> 00:55:25,399
Speaker 2: internal dynamics of Pakistan changes, and we've had a situation

886
00:55:25,399 --> 00:55:28,770
Speaker 2: where President Musharraf, as General Musharraf, was the architect of

887
00:55:28,770 --> 00:55:29,649
Speaker 2: the Cargill War.

888
00:55:30,729 --> 00:55:33,929
Speaker 2: Uh, and was also in office when we had the

889
00:55:33,929 --> 00:55:39,750
Speaker 2: attack on Indian parliament on December 13, 2001. Later on,

890
00:55:39,770 --> 00:55:42,830
Speaker 2: as president, he wanted to pursue peace.

891
00:55:43,620 --> 00:55:48,020
Speaker 2: Um, I don't know what path, uh, General, uh, Field Marshal,

892
00:55:48,070 --> 00:55:52,270
Speaker 2: as he calls himself, uh, Munir will take, uh, as

893
00:55:52,270 --> 00:55:56,750
Speaker 2: he consolidates power and gets immunity for life, uh, with

894
00:55:56,750 --> 00:55:59,388
Speaker 2: regard to India. But I think that uh really the

895
00:55:59,389 --> 00:56:01,290
Speaker 2: ball is in the, uh, court.

896
00:56:01,909 --> 00:56:04,199
Speaker 1: I just remember the phrase from those days, Aman Kiasha,

897
00:56:05,149 --> 00:56:08,310
Speaker 1: we lend our son Aman, inspired by the phrase, well,

898
00:56:08,389 --> 00:56:10,270
Speaker 1: hopefully there'll be something down the road.

899
00:56:10,590 --> 00:56:16,189
Speaker 1: Ambassador, between Pakistan and China and US and Russia and Europe,

900
00:56:16,350 --> 00:56:19,669
Speaker 1: so many balls to juggle. Where is the bandwidth for

901
00:56:19,669 --> 00:56:21,350
Speaker 1: India's engagement with Southeast Asia?

902
00:56:22,419 --> 00:56:24,620
Speaker 2: Well, I think that I would like to see a

903
00:56:24,620 --> 00:56:28,659
Speaker 2: much higher level of engagement than we currently have with

904
00:56:28,659 --> 00:56:32,050
Speaker 2: Southeast Asia. I mean, no question about it. This is

905
00:56:32,050 --> 00:56:34,819
Speaker 2: something which, uh, you know, I've maintained since I was

906
00:56:34,820 --> 00:56:36,299
Speaker 2: here before that as well.

907
00:56:37,350 --> 00:56:41,310
Speaker 2: Because we have to see Southeast Asia as our neighbor.

908
00:56:42,149 --> 00:56:45,949
Speaker 2: When you fly from India to Southeast Asia, you realize

909
00:56:45,949 --> 00:56:50,109
Speaker 2: how close we are. Now we have this geo.

910
00:56:51,899 --> 00:56:56,219
Speaker 2: Polit, you know, geographical constructs which are geopolitical or political

911
00:56:56,219 --> 00:56:59,138
Speaker 2: in nature from the colonial era. So you have a

912
00:56:59,139 --> 00:57:02,379
Speaker 2: South Asia, you have a Southeast Asia, you have a

913
00:57:02,379 --> 00:57:05,260
Speaker 2: West Asia, you have a South Central Asia, you have

914
00:57:05,260 --> 00:57:06,379
Speaker 2: an East Asia.

915
00:57:07,399 --> 00:57:09,959
Speaker 2: These are arbitrary constructs.

916
00:57:10,939 --> 00:57:12,909
Speaker 2: I mean, you have a Middle East which was Middle

917
00:57:12,909 --> 00:57:14,689
Speaker 2: East from the point of view of London

918
00:57:15,389 --> 00:57:16,229
Speaker 1: for us it's West.

919
00:57:16,969 --> 00:57:19,550
Speaker 2: I mean, so we still call it Middle East. So

920
00:57:19,550 --> 00:57:22,250
Speaker 2: you mean for me, we have to see.

921
00:57:23,239 --> 00:57:26,790
Speaker 2: Uh, the neighborhood as an arc from Southeast Asia to

922
00:57:26,790 --> 00:57:30,199
Speaker 2: the Gulf, and all the way to the western coast, uh,

923
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:32,639
Speaker 2: eastern coast of Africa, seaboard of Africa.

924
00:57:33,500 --> 00:57:37,850
Speaker 2: If you do that, then your approach will naturally uh change.

925
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 2: Southeast Asia, I mean, we have all civilizational links. 9

926
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:48,979
Speaker 2: of them have index civilizational links. It's a very dynamic region.

927
00:57:49,399 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 2: I'm always impressed with Southeast Asia. Just, I mean, 650

928
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 2: million young people are working very hard, building a great

929
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:00,909
Speaker 2: future for the region, a region which is still a

930
00:58:00,909 --> 00:58:05,600
Speaker 2: lesson in coming together despite maybe the greatest diversity.

931
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:09,959
Speaker 2: That you will ever find between 10 countries, every religion.

932
00:58:10,739 --> 00:58:15,939
Speaker 2: Uh, different political systems. Look at the size. I mean,

933
00:58:16,020 --> 00:58:21,500
Speaker 2: from Brunei, Indonesia, economic development. I mean, look where Singapore

934
00:58:21,500 --> 00:58:25,280
Speaker 2: is globally and look where some of the other countries are.

935
00:58:25,860 --> 00:58:30,100
Speaker 2: Yet despite that, they find a way to move forward.

936
00:58:31,010 --> 00:58:35,129
Speaker 2: Not by agreeing on everything, but finding a consensus. It's

937
00:58:35,129 --> 00:58:36,719
Speaker 2: also a model for the world.

938
00:58:37,350 --> 00:58:42,149
Speaker 2: And when Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke about Indo-Pacific vision here,

939
00:58:42,270 --> 00:58:47,830
Speaker 2: here in Singapore in 2018, I mean, he clearly emphasized

940
00:58:47,830 --> 00:58:49,350
Speaker 2: the centrality of ASEAN.

941
00:58:50,209 --> 00:58:54,889
Speaker 2: Uh, and that we see this as pivotal to the

942
00:58:54,889 --> 00:58:58,770
Speaker 2: Indo-Pacific region, to our larger interest in the Indo-Pacific region.

943
00:58:59,090 --> 00:59:07,439
Speaker 2: So I think there is a vision, there is a recognition, civilizationally, geopolitically, economically, um,

944
00:59:07,689 --> 00:59:10,770
Speaker 2: whichever way you look at it in terms of geography

945
00:59:10,770 --> 00:59:13,810
Speaker 2: also that we need to do much, much more with

946
00:59:13,810 --> 00:59:14,729
Speaker 2: Southeast Asia.

947
00:59:15,379 --> 00:59:18,169
Speaker 2: We both have to look at each other more closely,

948
00:59:18,379 --> 00:59:21,219
Speaker 2: and I'd say this to Southeast Asia as well. You

949
00:59:21,219 --> 00:59:25,129
Speaker 2: need ASEAN members, ASEAN Southeast Asian countries. Leave aside Singapore,

950
00:59:25,179 --> 00:59:29,939
Speaker 2: which has an exceptional relationship with India. I mean, the

951
00:59:29,939 --> 00:59:31,899
Speaker 2: probably the one country that is going to be a

952
00:59:31,899 --> 00:59:36,399
Speaker 2: real gateway bridge for India to the region, but also

953
00:59:36,580 --> 00:59:39,800
Speaker 2: in terms of global finance, global, uh, connectivity.

954
00:59:40,870 --> 00:59:44,719
Speaker 2: Singapore will play a role, but Southeast Asia needs to also.

955
00:59:45,689 --> 00:59:49,919
Speaker 2: Recognize that if its future interest lies not in either

956
00:59:49,919 --> 00:59:53,679
Speaker 2: having to bend to one global hegemon or being torn

957
00:59:53,679 --> 00:59:58,399
Speaker 2: between two great powers, that is something that ASEAN experienced,

958
00:59:58,520 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 2: Southeast Asia experienced before 1967, before ASEAN was born and

959
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:06,959
Speaker 2: well into the 1970s, and that it needs other players

960
01:00:06,959 --> 01:00:07,659
Speaker 2: in the region.

961
01:00:08,189 --> 01:00:11,830
Speaker 2: To create the kind of balance, and Southeast Asia needs India,

962
01:00:11,939 --> 01:00:15,860
Speaker 2: it needs Japan, it needs European Union. And in my,

963
01:00:15,870 --> 01:00:18,449
Speaker 2: during my posting in Paris, and I can tell you,

964
01:00:18,629 --> 01:00:22,469
Speaker 2: I never left one opportunity to emphasize why France and

965
01:00:22,469 --> 01:00:25,830
Speaker 2: European Union needed to do more in Southeast Asia than

966
01:00:25,830 --> 01:00:29,100
Speaker 2: they are doing currently. And, and it applies to India

967
01:00:29,100 --> 01:00:32,149
Speaker 2: as well, but it's Southeast Asia also needs to raise

968
01:00:32,149 --> 01:00:34,790
Speaker 2: the level of its ambition. And one way it can

969
01:00:34,790 --> 01:00:36,780
Speaker 2: do it is that it again.

970
01:00:37,540 --> 01:00:44,010
Speaker 2: Come to the table to really constructively revise the India-ASEAN

971
01:00:44,010 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 2: FTA because it is actually very asymmetrically.

972
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:52,719
Speaker 2: Against us even in terms of coverage of uh so

973
01:00:52,719 --> 01:00:55,360
Speaker 2: if you do that, I think it'll catalyze a lot

974
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:58,520
Speaker 2: of other uh engagement. We have very good defense and

975
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 2: security partnership. Singapore is one of our most comprehensive security partners.

976
01:01:02,399 --> 01:01:06,919
Speaker 2: We're doing that with Vietnam, Philippines, increasingly with Indonesia, Malaysia

977
01:01:06,919 --> 01:01:08,899
Speaker 2: will also be doing that, but.

978
01:01:10,439 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 2: ASEAN, I mean, Southeast Asia is driven by trade and

979
01:01:13,040 --> 01:01:16,479
Speaker 2: commerce and investments. And so this is one area that

980
01:01:16,479 --> 01:01:19,199
Speaker 2: I would like to emphasize is that we need to

981
01:01:19,199 --> 01:01:22,239
Speaker 2: find a way to raise the quality, the coverage, and

982
01:01:22,239 --> 01:01:25,580
Speaker 2: the level of our FTA very quickly.

983
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:29,830
Speaker 1: Well, I, I hope your call for such engagement is

984
01:01:29,830 --> 01:01:32,639
Speaker 1: heard on the corridors of Delhi loud and clear, because

985
01:01:32,639 --> 01:01:33,399
Speaker 1: we need that.

986
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:36,159
Speaker 1: Uh, Ambassador Ashraf, I cannot thank you enough. Thank you

987
01:01:36,159 --> 01:01:37,689
Speaker 1: so much for your time and insights. Pleasure.

988
01:01:37,729 --> 01:01:40,209
Speaker 2: It's always good. Thank you very much. It was great

989
01:01:40,209 --> 01:01:42,810
Speaker 2: to talk to you. And look, I'm very happy to

990
01:01:42,810 --> 01:01:44,100
Speaker 2: be back in Singapore. Well,

991
01:01:44,350 --> 01:01:44,379
Speaker 1: we're

992
01:01:44,689 --> 01:01:46,689
Speaker 1: really happy to have you here. I would like to

993
01:01:46,689 --> 01:01:49,290
Speaker 1: thank our listeners as well. Copy time was produced by

994
01:01:49,290 --> 01:01:50,810
Speaker 1: Ken Delbridge, Violet Lee and.

995
01:01:51,060 --> 01:01:54,379
Speaker 1: Sharma provided additional assistance. It is for information only and

996
01:01:54,379 --> 01:01:58,379
Speaker 1: does not constitute any trade advice. All 165 episodes of

997
01:01:58,379 --> 01:02:02,169
Speaker 1: the podcast are available on YouTube and Spotify and Google.

998
01:02:02,409 --> 01:02:04,780
Speaker 1: As for our research publications, you can find them all

999
01:02:04,780 --> 01:02:07,919
Speaker 1: by Googling DBS Research Library. Have a great day.