1 00:00:07,889 --> 00:00:11,079 Speaker 1: Hello. Welcome to COI Time, a podcast series on markets 2 00:00:11,079 --> 00:00:14,399 Speaker 1: and economies from DBS Group Research. I'm Tambee, chief economist, 3 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:18,669 Speaker 1: welcoming you to our 159th episode. Today we will talk 4 00:00:18,670 --> 00:00:22,229 Speaker 1: with Mark Damarak, global head of research at CT Group. 5 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,709 Speaker 1: Mark has built a career around strategic communication and media campaigns, 6 00:00:26,719 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: and he has lots of insights on consumer and corporate 7 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:33,709 Speaker 1: sentiment at the current juncture. Mark, welcome to COVID time. 8 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 2: No, thank you very much for having me and thank 9 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:37,639 Speaker 2: you again to everyone who's tuning in. 10 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,848 Speaker 1: Great to have you, Mark, and let's warm up by 11 00:00:41,848 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: some proper intro. What is Citigroup and what do you 12 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: do as its head of research? Sure, 13 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:51,580 Speaker 2: so a CT Group of global campaigns and communications firm, 14 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,758 Speaker 2: and what we do is, we help our clients get 15 00:00:54,759 --> 00:00:57,990 Speaker 2: the outcome they want, get the outcome they they desire 16 00:00:58,159 --> 00:01:01,389 Speaker 2: based on evidence. Now that evidence can be research, be 17 00:01:01,389 --> 00:01:03,830 Speaker 2: it community research, community diagnostic research. 18 00:01:04,089 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 2: It could be intelligence, it, it can be data, but 19 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 2: what we're really interested in is what's driving attitudes to 20 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 2: the issue that the client has? What's those underlying that 21 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:18,519 Speaker 2: underlying behavior, uh, towards the client's issue, and how can 22 00:01:18,519 --> 00:01:20,839 Speaker 2: they then be aware of that, what can, what do 23 00:01:20,839 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 2: they need to do to get their desired outcome? We've 24 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,199 Speaker 2: got offices in Singapore, Sydney, London. 25 00:01:26,519 --> 00:01:30,449 Speaker 2: Abu Dhabi, Paris, and even Washington DC. So I'm quite lucky, 26 00:01:30,459 --> 00:01:33,220 Speaker 2: it's had to be global research. It's two things. I 27 00:01:33,220 --> 00:01:36,300 Speaker 2: look at the integrity, the robustness of our research to 28 00:01:36,300 --> 00:01:39,699 Speaker 2: make sure that that methodology is tight, uh, and the 29 00:01:39,699 --> 00:01:42,330 Speaker 2: accuracy of it, and we can talk about accuracy in, 30 00:01:42,339 --> 00:01:45,220 Speaker 2: in research. But the other role, which I think's really 31 00:01:45,220 --> 00:01:47,819 Speaker 2: part of my favorite, is looking at that global research, 32 00:01:47,870 --> 00:01:51,540 Speaker 2: identifying what are those trends, regardless of the country, regardless 33 00:01:51,540 --> 00:01:54,739 Speaker 2: of the religion, regardless of the language, what's motivating people? 34 00:01:55,519 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 2: What, what, what's driving their behavior, uh, and there's never 35 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,319 Speaker 2: a day we're not doing research in any part of 36 00:02:00,319 --> 00:02:03,629 Speaker 2: the world, so looking at those global trends, identifying them, 37 00:02:03,790 --> 00:02:05,879 Speaker 2: and then helping our clients to say, look, here's what 38 00:02:05,879 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 2: you need to be aware of, helping them make better 39 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:09,399 Speaker 2: decisions as a result of that. 40 00:02:10,690 --> 00:02:14,490 Speaker 1: Mark, in your experience, are companies interested in cross country 41 00:02:14,490 --> 00:02:17,369 Speaker 1: evidence or they are very focused on a country or 42 00:02:17,369 --> 00:02:19,929 Speaker 1: a segment at any given time and they just want 43 00:02:19,929 --> 00:02:23,330 Speaker 1: to look at the nearby peers or they are enlightened 44 00:02:23,330 --> 00:02:25,929 Speaker 1: enough to take advantage of your global footprint and want 45 00:02:25,929 --> 00:02:28,399 Speaker 1: to hear your perspective from a cross country basis. 46 00:02:29,149 --> 00:02:31,990 Speaker 2: We're seeing, I think, given the, the, uh, how would 47 00:02:31,990 --> 00:02:35,190 Speaker 2: you put it, the polite way, global uncertainty, uh, that's 48 00:02:35,190 --> 00:02:37,949 Speaker 2: currently going on, people are now more interested in what's 49 00:02:37,949 --> 00:02:41,509 Speaker 2: being done by other countries, especially other like-minded countries, and 50 00:02:41,508 --> 00:02:45,289 Speaker 2: what's motivating, uh, consumers in there. What that 51 00:02:45,335 --> 00:02:47,845 Speaker 2: is provide some sort of a benchmark of what they 52 00:02:47,845 --> 00:02:53,883 Speaker 2: should be aspiring to, especially companies who have multi uh multi-marketed, uh, outlays. 53 00:02:54,044 --> 00:02:56,043 Speaker 2: And as a result of that, they're then able to 54 00:02:56,044 --> 00:03:00,494 Speaker 2: make decisions that are better informed because you know not 55 00:03:00,494 --> 00:03:01,514 Speaker 2: only where you're at, 56 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:05,820 Speaker 2: But where you might be, or where you could have 57 00:03:05,820 --> 00:03:10,699 Speaker 2: been had you not made separate decisions. So that comparison of, uh, attitudes, 58 00:03:10,779 --> 00:03:14,660 Speaker 2: that comparison of where people are sort of focusing their 59 00:03:14,660 --> 00:03:17,460 Speaker 2: efforts is becoming more and more important. So therefore, needing 60 00:03:17,460 --> 00:03:21,220 Speaker 2: to understand what's happening in other markets, be they like 61 00:03:21,220 --> 00:03:23,990 Speaker 2: yours or not, becomes more important in decision making. 62 00:03:25,149 --> 00:03:27,149 Speaker 1: Sure, and I want to touch on that issue. Earlier 63 00:03:27,149 --> 00:03:31,020 Speaker 1: you talked about research methodology, and I'm really curious that, 64 00:03:31,029 --> 00:03:36,740 Speaker 1: you know, when you try to get the pulse of societies, communities, consumers, 65 00:03:36,830 --> 00:03:39,830 Speaker 1: you know, how you're adapting to what I think is 66 00:03:39,830 --> 00:03:42,949 Speaker 1: sort of increasing uncertainty in hearing from people what they 67 00:03:42,949 --> 00:03:45,630 Speaker 1: really believe in. So Mark, over the last decade we've 68 00:03:45,630 --> 00:03:48,350 Speaker 1: seen a bunch of developments which some people saw coming 69 00:03:48,350 --> 00:03:51,389 Speaker 1: but consensus did not see coming, whether it was Brexit 70 00:03:51,389 --> 00:03:53,979 Speaker 1: or Trump 1.0 or Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 71 00:03:54,250 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 1: And the extent of the duration of the trade war 72 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:59,119 Speaker 1: that we have. So I guess the question that I 73 00:03:59,119 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: want to ask you is that in your research, did 74 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: you pick up early warning of these events? And if yes, how? 75 00:04:04,889 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 2: I think when we go back, I was looking at 76 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 2: the research we've done going back to 2013, 2014, 2015, 77 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,029 Speaker 2: and that's where you sort of saw a lot of these, 78 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:16,359 Speaker 2: these trends come through. There was a very identifiable what we, 79 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,709 Speaker 2: what we identify is what we call a quiet anger 80 00:04:18,709 --> 00:04:22,678 Speaker 2: in the community. Uh, in the UK that quiet anger manifested. 81 00:04:22,845 --> 00:04:26,933 Speaker 2: Itself in terms of really strong pressure on services, be 82 00:04:26,934 --> 00:04:30,704 Speaker 2: it the NHS, schools, transport, uh, and as a and 83 00:04:30,704 --> 00:04:35,885 Speaker 2: they saw that as we have these internal pressures, we have, uh, immigration, 84 00:04:35,945 --> 00:04:38,904 Speaker 2: which is sort of, there's no real plan for what 85 00:04:38,904 --> 00:04:41,863 Speaker 2: are we going to do with immigration. Uh, and that 86 00:04:41,863 --> 00:04:45,053 Speaker 2: the Brexit very much or the Brexit debate tapped into that. 87 00:04:45,345 --> 00:04:48,225 Speaker 2: So you could foresee where, where that was going. In 88 00:04:48,225 --> 00:04:52,674 Speaker 2: the US that quiet anger was done by people who, uh, 89 00:04:53,010 --> 00:04:55,540 Speaker 2: Which is sort of now seeing these exact issues play out. 90 00:04:55,869 --> 00:04:58,670 Speaker 2: We think they thought they were losing their jobs to 91 00:04:58,670 --> 00:05:01,820 Speaker 2: sort of foreign investment or foreign companies or foreign trade. 92 00:05:02,010 --> 00:05:04,868 Speaker 2: They didn't see the economy getting better or their personal 93 00:05:04,869 --> 00:05:07,820 Speaker 2: financial situation, they didn't think it was going to get better. 94 00:05:08,170 --> 00:05:09,950 Speaker 2: Uh and I think that what really sort of tapped 95 00:05:09,950 --> 00:05:12,309 Speaker 2: into that quiet anger was a sense that we're not 96 00:05:12,309 --> 00:05:12,868 Speaker 2: being heard. 97 00:05:13,678 --> 00:05:15,859 Speaker 2: And uh that, and so you then saw that the 98 00:05:15,859 --> 00:05:18,779 Speaker 2: Trump campaign sort of gave voice to that to that 99 00:05:18,779 --> 00:05:22,579 Speaker 2: quiet anger. Uh, understanding what was driving that behavior sort 100 00:05:22,579 --> 00:05:24,700 Speaker 2: of made it easy to see where these big trends 101 00:05:24,700 --> 00:05:27,659 Speaker 2: therefore were coming from. Uh, let's just say with Ukraine, 102 00:05:27,940 --> 00:05:32,260 Speaker 2: Putin's anger wasn't so quiet, uh, and having taken over 103 00:05:32,260 --> 00:05:34,380 Speaker 2: Crimea sort of saw an opportunity. 104 00:05:35,260 --> 00:05:39,149 Speaker 2: And, and, and, and took it. So we, we, our 105 00:05:39,149 --> 00:05:43,669 Speaker 2: view is when, with those sort of issues, it's not 106 00:05:43,670 --> 00:05:45,929 Speaker 2: turning a blind eye to it, but it's being aware 107 00:05:46,390 --> 00:05:49,390 Speaker 2: of why people are making the decisions they are and 108 00:05:49,390 --> 00:05:52,630 Speaker 2: why people are are focused where they are. And if 109 00:05:52,630 --> 00:05:55,500 Speaker 2: you understand that, then you'll go for the the cause, i.e., 110 00:05:55,869 --> 00:05:59,549 Speaker 2: pressure on public, uh, services, pressure on the NHS, pressure 111 00:05:59,549 --> 00:06:02,109 Speaker 2: on housing, it gives you a better sense then of 112 00:06:02,109 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 2: where the public are going to go. 113 00:06:04,678 --> 00:06:06,750 Speaker 1: But Mark, it seems to me, I mean, at least 114 00:06:06,750 --> 00:06:09,750 Speaker 1: this is what I see when we talk to pollsters 115 00:06:09,750 --> 00:06:13,730 Speaker 1: in the US, that there is also the quite angry 116 00:06:13,730 --> 00:06:18,380 Speaker 1: people or their disinclination to respond to pollsters and their 117 00:06:18,630 --> 00:06:21,349 Speaker 1: proclivities sometimes to actually not tell them the truth. So like. 118 00:06:21,494 --> 00:06:24,084 Speaker 1: Very hard that you go and do a random sampling 119 00:06:24,084 --> 00:06:27,234 Speaker 1: of 1000 people. You ask them questions, you hear 52% 120 00:06:27,234 --> 00:06:29,475 Speaker 1: will go one way. The election result comes out, it 121 00:06:29,475 --> 00:06:32,904 Speaker 1: actually 52% went a different way. So two questions. One is, 122 00:06:33,154 --> 00:06:35,875 Speaker 1: are we seeing this polarization trend, which is the societies 123 00:06:35,875 --> 00:06:38,714 Speaker 1: are kind of 50/50, things happen on the margin and 124 00:06:38,714 --> 00:06:41,993 Speaker 1: can't really use that marginal outcome as a major trend 125 00:06:41,994 --> 00:06:43,984 Speaker 1: because the next time 50/50 could go the other direction. 126 00:06:44,165 --> 00:06:46,034 Speaker 1: So that's one thing that I want to hear from you. 127 00:06:46,195 --> 00:06:49,815 Speaker 1: And the second is this potency or protective power of polls. 128 00:06:49,954 --> 00:06:51,034 Speaker 1: Is it, is it worsening? 129 00:06:52,170 --> 00:06:55,399 Speaker 2: Let me take the first part, sorry, the second part first, 130 00:06:55,488 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 2: I should say. Um, there, there tends to be, especially 131 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:02,489 Speaker 2: by the commentariat in the media, sort of a, what 132 00:07:02,488 --> 00:07:04,690 Speaker 2: I would still class as a misunderstanding of what the 133 00:07:04,690 --> 00:07:08,010 Speaker 2: purpose of polls are. Uh, a poll is not a predictor. 134 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,329 Speaker 2: It's not a crystal ball. It's not gonna tell you 135 00:07:10,329 --> 00:07:13,010 Speaker 2: what's gonna happen in the future. If it was that good, 136 00:07:13,049 --> 00:07:14,809 Speaker 2: you use it at the racecourse or you take it 137 00:07:14,809 --> 00:07:17,589 Speaker 2: to the casino. What a poll is, is a measure 138 00:07:17,589 --> 00:07:20,850 Speaker 2: in time. It's, here's what people think at a particular 139 00:07:20,850 --> 00:07:21,529 Speaker 2: point in time. 140 00:07:22,049 --> 00:07:24,730 Speaker 2: Now, it is easy, uh, for media and for commentators 141 00:07:24,730 --> 00:07:27,279 Speaker 2: to say, here's where people are at, here's what they're doing. 142 00:07:27,489 --> 00:07:32,570 Speaker 2: But to expect that to happen again in 2345 weeks' time, again, 143 00:07:32,690 --> 00:07:35,649 Speaker 2: misunderstands what it is. The way we use polls is 144 00:07:35,649 --> 00:07:38,609 Speaker 2: to say, look, here's what people think, right, but why 145 00:07:38,609 --> 00:07:39,410 Speaker 2: do they think that? 146 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 2: What's driving that? What's, what's that element, and that's what 147 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,149 Speaker 2: you see missing in a lot of the published polls, 148 00:07:45,279 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 2: and that's why I think you get, um, the, the 149 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,359 Speaker 2: results that you have where people say, well, the polls 150 00:07:50,359 --> 00:07:53,359 Speaker 2: were wrong. Well, no, the polls weren't wrong. The job 151 00:07:53,359 --> 00:07:55,709 Speaker 2: of the polls was not to predict the future for you. 152 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,799 Speaker 2: If you understood, let's go back, why were people having 153 00:07:58,799 --> 00:08:02,709 Speaker 2: those views? Why were people uh focused on those particular 154 00:08:02,709 --> 00:08:02,769 Speaker 2: issues issues? 155 00:08:02,875 --> 00:08:07,184 Speaker 2: Issues that gives you a greater understanding. That then bizarrely 156 00:08:07,184 --> 00:08:11,065 Speaker 2: lets you predict, if you like, better, what the outcome 157 00:08:11,065 --> 00:08:13,804 Speaker 2: will be. I think in the last two elections, um, 158 00:08:13,945 --> 00:08:16,734 Speaker 2: you're right, there, there was very much a sense of, 159 00:08:16,765 --> 00:08:20,785 Speaker 2: especially in states like Pennsylvania, where everybody was being polled, uh, 160 00:08:20,864 --> 00:08:23,904 Speaker 2: every 2 seconds, there is a, there's very, very much 161 00:08:23,904 --> 00:08:25,984 Speaker 2: a sense of, uh, fatigue. 162 00:08:26,660 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 2: But that just shows, uh, you need other ways to 163 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:33,119 Speaker 2: get around that. Uh, for example, more in person, uh, 164 00:08:33,159 --> 00:08:36,190 Speaker 2: type polling, uh, what you would do then is, uh, 165 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,549 Speaker 2: bring in various sort of sort of data platforms as 166 00:08:38,549 --> 00:08:41,159 Speaker 2: well to, to bring in various other data points to 167 00:08:41,159 --> 00:08:44,039 Speaker 2: help you draw conclusions. But again, if you're trying to 168 00:08:44,039 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 2: use the poll to predict the future, no matter of 169 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,239 Speaker 2: sampling's gonna help you do that. If you're using the 170 00:08:50,239 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 2: poll to help you identify why people are thinking and 171 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:54,978 Speaker 2: how they change their mind, 172 00:08:55,409 --> 00:08:57,460 Speaker 2: That's a separate, that's a separate focus. 173 00:08:58,380 --> 00:09:01,710 Speaker 1: Mark, am I correct in saying that CT Group did 174 00:09:01,710 --> 00:09:03,869 Speaker 1: do some polling in the US last year? 175 00:09:04,580 --> 00:09:07,530 Speaker 2: So we did some for for ourselves. We didn't do 176 00:09:07,530 --> 00:09:11,330 Speaker 2: anything for any campaign. It wasn't for, for, for anyone. 177 00:09:11,369 --> 00:09:13,479 Speaker 2: It was very much sort of for our internal purposes, 178 00:09:13,650 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 2: for fun. That's what we do. 179 00:09:16,929 --> 00:09:19,479 Speaker 1: But was it interesting? I mean, in terms of this, 180 00:09:19,489 --> 00:09:21,770 Speaker 1: what we were just discussing that did you feel in 181 00:09:21,770 --> 00:09:24,450 Speaker 1: your work with the US that it was a 50/50 nation, 182 00:09:24,530 --> 00:09:26,650 Speaker 1: or did you feel that things were shifting in a 183 00:09:26,650 --> 00:09:28,228 Speaker 1: decisive manner toward Trump? 184 00:09:28,450 --> 00:09:28,650 Speaker 2: What 185 00:09:28,650 --> 00:09:30,130 Speaker 2: we found was 186 00:09:31,030 --> 00:09:33,450 Speaker 2: What we found was what we called the um the, 187 00:09:33,489 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 2: the sort of the the the the the quiet Trump voter. 188 00:09:36,210 --> 00:09:38,909 Speaker 2: So this is a person who did not vote last time, 189 00:09:39,450 --> 00:09:42,330 Speaker 2: but was very keen to vote this time. Uh, we 190 00:09:42,330 --> 00:09:46,039 Speaker 2: did research in Georgia and Pennsylvania, cause obviously the, the, the, the, 191 00:09:46,049 --> 00:09:49,809 Speaker 2: the two dominant swing states. And what we found was 192 00:09:50,010 --> 00:09:52,130 Speaker 2: when we put together all the hours of the research 193 00:09:52,130 --> 00:09:53,689 Speaker 2: that we did and all the data, we came up with, 194 00:09:53,700 --> 00:09:54,929 Speaker 2: if you like, a psychograph. 195 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 2: Uh, and that is a personification of who, who the, 196 00:09:59,599 --> 00:10:02,479 Speaker 2: who that swinging voter was. Uh, we gave him a name. 197 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 2: His name was Mike. He lived sort of in the 198 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:08,909 Speaker 2: outer suburbs of the area. Uh, he drove a diesel car. 199 00:10:09,119 --> 00:10:12,750 Speaker 2: He had, uh, wasn't college educated, had a manual job. 200 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 2: But what really drove him was the economy. He thought 201 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:16,988 Speaker 2: he was worse off. 202 00:10:17,940 --> 00:10:19,959 Speaker 2: That he had been 4 years ago, and he was 203 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 2: going to get worse off. He thought his family was 204 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,030 Speaker 2: financially worse off, and was going to get worse off. 205 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 2: He didn't vote for Trump last time, and I think 206 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 2: a lot of polls missed him because they didn't, they said, 207 00:10:31,890 --> 00:10:33,479 Speaker 2: because he didn't vote last time they take him out 208 00:10:33,479 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 2: of the sample. 209 00:10:34,900 --> 00:10:38,260 Speaker 2: He he was going to vote this time, but what 210 00:10:38,260 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 2: he wanted to hear from Trump was more about the economy, 211 00:10:41,940 --> 00:10:44,169 Speaker 2: more about uh being on my side. 212 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,489 Speaker 2: And the more he heard that, the more likely he 213 00:10:47,489 --> 00:10:50,570 Speaker 2: was to come out. Similarly, there was a a lady 214 00:10:50,570 --> 00:10:53,069 Speaker 2: called Grace who was sort of the the the, 215 00:10:53,969 --> 00:10:57,130 Speaker 2: Harris' campaign needed to get her out, she was also 216 00:10:57,130 --> 00:11:00,169 Speaker 2: worried about jobs, more worried about childcare, and she wanted 217 00:11:00,169 --> 00:11:03,250 Speaker 2: to hear that from Harris to get out, but all 218 00:11:03,250 --> 00:11:05,969 Speaker 2: she was hearing was democracy, threats to democracy. 219 00:11:06,710 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 2: So she was less inclined. On the day Grace stayed home, 220 00:11:10,900 --> 00:11:11,770 Speaker 2: Mike came out. 221 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:16,090 Speaker 1: All right, that is really, really cool, uh, and I, 222 00:11:16,190 --> 00:11:18,030 Speaker 1: I hope that you guys do more stuff like this 223 00:11:18,030 --> 00:11:20,190 Speaker 1: going forward because the next elections are going to be 224 00:11:20,590 --> 00:11:23,348 Speaker 1: pretty interesting and consequential as well, and not just in 225 00:11:23,349 --> 00:11:24,059 Speaker 1: the US, 226 00:11:24,349 --> 00:11:28,229 Speaker 2: um, I think that comes, so you asked also about, um, bubble. 227 00:11:28,575 --> 00:11:30,854 Speaker 2: If you like. And we are seeing that very, very 228 00:11:30,854 --> 00:11:34,565 Speaker 2: much in all our research, is, uh, the views of 229 00:11:34,565 --> 00:11:38,854 Speaker 2: the people in the inner city who are college educated, uh, 230 00:11:38,934 --> 00:11:42,525 Speaker 2: and sort of probably earn a bit more average, uh, 231 00:11:42,534 --> 00:11:45,294 Speaker 2: higher income, have very different views to the rest of 232 00:11:45,294 --> 00:11:45,934 Speaker 2: the community. 233 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 2: Now, a lot of your journalists and your decision makers 234 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,510 Speaker 2: and politicians are drawn from one particular group over the other, 235 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:54,599 Speaker 2: and that's why I think you're going to continue to 236 00:11:54,599 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 2: see this sort of tension on issues, be it climate change, 237 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 2: be it AI because you have two separate groups still 238 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 2: coming from two different perspectives. 239 00:12:01,690 --> 00:12:03,710 Speaker 2: And you saw that writ large, if you like, in 240 00:12:03,710 --> 00:12:06,968 Speaker 2: the US election, where people would say, Oh, everybody I 241 00:12:06,969 --> 00:12:10,390 Speaker 2: know is voting Democrat. Everybody I know thinks this. Well, yes, 242 00:12:10,469 --> 00:12:12,869 Speaker 2: but everybody you know is in your bubble. We're seeing 243 00:12:12,869 --> 00:12:14,799 Speaker 2: that here in the region too, for example, you know, 244 00:12:14,929 --> 00:12:17,858 Speaker 2: people talk about the KL bubble or the Jakarta bubble. 245 00:12:18,070 --> 00:12:21,109 Speaker 2: Here in Singapore, what we find is that you're less 246 00:12:21,109 --> 00:12:23,669 Speaker 2: likely now to hang out with someone in a different 247 00:12:23,669 --> 00:12:25,789 Speaker 2: income bracket than you were 5 years ago. 248 00:12:26,690 --> 00:12:29,348 Speaker 2: So these sort of splits do have implications. So I 249 00:12:29,349 --> 00:12:32,510 Speaker 2: think when people are making decisions, be they politicians, be 250 00:12:32,510 --> 00:12:35,549 Speaker 2: they boards, you need to be aware of, uh, uh, 251 00:12:35,669 --> 00:12:39,070 Speaker 2: you know, who's your mic? Are you outside your bubble 252 00:12:39,070 --> 00:12:41,348 Speaker 2: or are you comfortable in it? And I think that 253 00:12:41,349 --> 00:12:43,229 Speaker 2: over the next year, 2 years is going to be 254 00:12:43,229 --> 00:12:46,390 Speaker 2: absolutely critical to ensuring you get better decision making. 255 00:12:47,479 --> 00:12:50,549 Speaker 1: So Mark, that level of discomfort or for lack of 256 00:12:50,549 --> 00:12:53,630 Speaker 1: a better word, anxiety is palpable. It's worldwide and you 257 00:12:53,630 --> 00:12:58,059 Speaker 1: know whether you see it coming stemming from disruptive tech 258 00:12:58,059 --> 00:13:00,108 Speaker 1: or the wars we have in the Middle East or 259 00:13:00,109 --> 00:13:03,819 Speaker 1: Eastern Europe or China-US tension, protectionism, all sorts of things, 260 00:13:04,150 --> 00:13:08,260 Speaker 1: making people anxious. So again, from a research methodology perspective 261 00:13:08,260 --> 00:13:10,630 Speaker 1: or just a day to day applied research perspective, how 262 00:13:10,630 --> 00:13:13,020 Speaker 1: do you grade these levels of anxiety? 263 00:13:14,049 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 2: What we do in our research is look at, uh, 264 00:13:17,450 --> 00:13:19,890 Speaker 2: what it is that people believe those important issues government 265 00:13:19,890 --> 00:13:22,450 Speaker 2: should do something about. Cause, and we don't do it 266 00:13:22,450 --> 00:13:24,049 Speaker 2: as a list. If you do it as a list, 267 00:13:24,130 --> 00:13:26,429 Speaker 2: people then tend to see an issue go, oh, that's important. Oh, 268 00:13:26,450 --> 00:13:28,330 Speaker 2: that's important. If you do it at an open end, 269 00:13:28,650 --> 00:13:31,380 Speaker 2: straight away, top of mind, what are those issues are important. 270 00:13:31,650 --> 00:13:34,770 Speaker 2: And what we're finding is that regardless of the country, 271 00:13:34,849 --> 00:13:37,090 Speaker 2: you can be in, you know, Mongolia or Melbourne or 272 00:13:37,090 --> 00:13:41,299 Speaker 2: Manchester or Mumbai, uh, cost of living still tends to dominate. 273 00:13:41,940 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 2: So this is how people perceive issues. They tend to 274 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,710 Speaker 2: cost of living, absolutely dominant, uh, in some markets, for example, 275 00:13:48,739 --> 00:13:51,598 Speaker 2: in the US it was very much driven by inflation, uh, 276 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,988 Speaker 2: in other countries it tends to be driven more by, uh, 277 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 2: economic growth, government borrowing as well. But everybody's still concerned 278 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,159 Speaker 2: about the cost of living, and that's how they approach 279 00:14:01,159 --> 00:14:04,718 Speaker 2: every issue is, yes, the wars are critical, but what's 280 00:14:04,719 --> 00:14:06,599 Speaker 2: the impact here in terms of my cost of living? 281 00:14:07,369 --> 00:14:10,799 Speaker 2: Yes, the global uncertainty, tariffs, what have you. But again, 282 00:14:10,909 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 2: how's that relevant to my cost of living? That then 283 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:16,319 Speaker 2: becomes the lens through which a lot of issues are seen, uh, 284 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,559 Speaker 2: and that is, yeah, where the people go, the politicians go, 285 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,239 Speaker 2: where the politicians go, the policies go. So I think 286 00:14:22,239 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 2: you will start to see far more, especially here in 287 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 2: the region, people looking very, very much at cost of 288 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,159 Speaker 2: living and how to continue to assist. 289 00:14:31,690 --> 00:14:33,969 Speaker 2: On that, and that will be the dominant issue. There's talk, 290 00:14:34,010 --> 00:14:36,690 Speaker 2: for example, in Indonesia where you've got what some would 291 00:14:36,690 --> 00:14:40,929 Speaker 2: say a two-tiered economy, manufacturing going very well, but consumer 292 00:14:40,929 --> 00:14:44,369 Speaker 2: spending very, very low, uh, of more incentives to come 293 00:14:44,369 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 2: in through there. So I think cost of living, despite 294 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,010 Speaker 2: everything that's going on, will continue to drive, uh, it 295 00:14:50,010 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 2: was a driver in the US election, in the UK 296 00:14:52,690 --> 00:14:54,929 Speaker 2: to extent in Australia and Japan as well. 297 00:14:55,830 --> 00:14:59,580 Speaker 1: So you'd say that anxiety or jobs would be secondary 298 00:14:59,580 --> 00:15:04,099 Speaker 1: to just the day to day cost of procuring essentials 299 00:15:04,099 --> 00:15:05,010 Speaker 1: for your loved ones. 300 00:15:05,500 --> 00:15:07,909 Speaker 2: It would fit into that. It would fit into that. 301 00:15:08,099 --> 00:15:10,109 Speaker 2: So when you're thinking about your cost of living, you're 302 00:15:10,109 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 2: thinking about how am I going to provide. So that's 303 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:13,979 Speaker 2: already the stress, but not how am I going to 304 00:15:13,979 --> 00:15:17,729 Speaker 2: provide today, next week, 2 weeks, this time next year. 305 00:15:18,250 --> 00:15:20,289 Speaker 2: The kids are going to a higher grade of school, 306 00:15:20,380 --> 00:15:22,979 Speaker 2: how am I gonna pay those school fees? It it 307 00:15:22,979 --> 00:15:26,979 Speaker 2: comes up in that uh uh personally relevant issue. 308 00:15:27,659 --> 00:15:30,809 Speaker 2: And so talking about issues, how do you then connect 309 00:15:31,070 --> 00:15:32,989 Speaker 2: to make them personally relevant for people? 310 00:15:34,390 --> 00:15:37,869 Speaker 1: Absolutely. Let's talk a little bit about the big story 311 00:15:37,869 --> 00:15:39,869 Speaker 1: of the moment, which is the trade war and and 312 00:15:39,869 --> 00:15:43,229 Speaker 1: all this tariff related mayhem. Uh, the companies that you're 313 00:15:43,229 --> 00:15:46,510 Speaker 1: speaking with, how are the boardrooms in these companies, you know, 314 00:15:46,630 --> 00:15:48,580 Speaker 1: dealing with tariff mayhem? 315 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:53,909 Speaker 2: Um, look, I think it's for those who've accepted the 316 00:15:53,909 --> 00:15:55,820 Speaker 2: reality that the horse has changed. 317 00:15:56,690 --> 00:16:00,500 Speaker 2: The planning and the scenario planning goes deeper, uh, and 318 00:16:00,500 --> 00:16:02,179 Speaker 2: they're acknowledged it for the long-term. 319 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:04,890 Speaker 2: We do have, we, we do work with some clients 320 00:16:04,890 --> 00:16:06,570 Speaker 2: who think, oh, look, we're just gonna hold on for 321 00:16:06,570 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 2: the next 2 years, then the Democrats will come in, 322 00:16:09,369 --> 00:16:12,169 Speaker 2: or there'll be a Democrat president, uh, and everything's going 323 00:16:12,169 --> 00:16:12,989 Speaker 2: to be fine. 324 00:16:13,859 --> 00:16:17,469 Speaker 2: The danger with that is two things. Go back to 325 00:16:17,469 --> 00:16:19,950 Speaker 2: the audiences. Who's the audience who makes the decision? And 326 00:16:19,950 --> 00:16:22,549 Speaker 2: the audience here, go back to Mike. Again, one of 327 00:16:22,549 --> 00:16:24,869 Speaker 2: the reasons he voted for Trump was because he thought 328 00:16:24,869 --> 00:16:28,229 Speaker 2: that the US was being done over. Now, by that 329 00:16:28,229 --> 00:16:30,580 Speaker 2: he meant, look, we're involved in wars, we shouldn't be. 330 00:16:30,909 --> 00:16:34,909 Speaker 2: We're taking, we, we, we fund all other countries when 331 00:16:34,909 --> 00:16:37,309 Speaker 2: we should be looking after ourselves. That drove him. 332 00:16:37,669 --> 00:16:40,239 Speaker 2: So when it comes to the tariffs, he agrees with 333 00:16:40,239 --> 00:16:43,599 Speaker 2: the proposition of the tariffs, which Trump says is to 334 00:16:43,599 --> 00:16:47,469 Speaker 2: bring manufacturing back to the US, make more things back 335 00:16:47,469 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 2: in the US, and he agrees with that. Uh, he 336 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 2: also agrees governments should be interventionist, a bit more interventionist 337 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 2: in the economy as well. So you, the key decision makers, 338 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,309 Speaker 2: if you like, in the US coming up to the elections, uh, 339 00:17:01,479 --> 00:17:03,270 Speaker 2: are supportive of this, this approach. 340 00:17:03,719 --> 00:17:05,819 Speaker 2: So it's not going to change. And you look at 341 00:17:05,819 --> 00:17:09,300 Speaker 2: the Democrat side, what the Democrats have attacked is not 342 00:17:09,300 --> 00:17:12,099 Speaker 2: necessarily the policy, but rather how it was done. And 343 00:17:12,099 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 2: be it Bernie Sanders, who says, you know, of course 344 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:18,130 Speaker 2: I'd use, I'd use tariffs as president, uh, Governor Gretche Whitmer, 345 00:17:18,380 --> 00:17:21,540 Speaker 2: who could potentially be a presidential candidate, says, I understand 346 00:17:21,540 --> 00:17:24,579 Speaker 2: the motivation behind the tariffs. Here's where President Trump and 347 00:17:24,579 --> 00:17:27,010 Speaker 2: I do agree. We need to make more stuff in America, 348 00:17:27,180 --> 00:17:29,540 Speaker 2: more cars and more chips, more steel and more ships. 349 00:17:30,079 --> 00:17:32,729 Speaker 2: So you have a, a, a, a body there, so 350 00:17:32,729 --> 00:17:35,770 Speaker 2: those companies who have gone, yep, uh, this is here 351 00:17:35,770 --> 00:17:39,099 Speaker 2: for the long haul, are making more strategic decisions, better 352 00:17:39,099 --> 00:17:42,290 Speaker 2: long-term planning than those that think this is just a 353 00:17:42,290 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 2: bubble and we can ride it out. 354 00:17:45,719 --> 00:17:49,939 Speaker 1: Mark, but when we look at investment decisions, there are 355 00:17:49,939 --> 00:17:52,939 Speaker 1: these announcements which are seismic in nature. Many companies are 356 00:17:52,939 --> 00:17:54,829 Speaker 1: saying hundreds of billions of dollars would be invested in 357 00:17:54,829 --> 00:17:58,129 Speaker 1: the US, but when we look at the actual evidence, 358 00:17:58,260 --> 00:17:59,389 Speaker 1: it seems to me that there seems to be a 359 00:17:59,390 --> 00:18:02,139 Speaker 1: disconnect because there seems to be this notion within the 360 00:18:02,140 --> 00:18:02,938 Speaker 1: boardroom that is the way. 361 00:18:03,030 --> 00:18:04,819 Speaker 1: I look at it and I like to hear your view. 362 00:18:04,859 --> 00:18:07,738 Speaker 1: Maybe you don't agree with me, is that they're kind 363 00:18:07,739 --> 00:18:11,978 Speaker 1: of paralyzed by the uncertainty because on the 2nd of 364 00:18:11,979 --> 00:18:14,589 Speaker 1: April we had one set of tariffs or the subsequent 365 00:18:14,589 --> 00:18:17,449 Speaker 1: 3 months some tariffs went up, some tariffs went down. 366 00:18:17,500 --> 00:18:20,420 Speaker 1: We still have various sectoral reviews going on on Pharma and. 367 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: on tech semiconductors and so on, so those tariffs could 368 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,319 Speaker 1: be higher. Now in the last 48 hours, you and 369 00:18:28,319 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 1: I have both read there are export taxes in the 370 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:31,639 Speaker 1: US if you're selling stuff to China, you've got to 371 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 1: pay 15% surcharge to the US Treasury. So have things 372 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:40,079 Speaker 1: settled down, even if you don't believe that this is 373 00:18:40,079 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: going to, if you believe that this is going to 374 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:45,119 Speaker 1: be lasting, not just a bubble. Are you still on 375 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: solid ground to start making strategic decisions for the next 376 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:48,510 Speaker 1: 3 to 5 years? 377 00:18:49,099 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 2: I, I think what we've been working with boards on 378 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:55,739 Speaker 2: is you now need more scenarios than before. So before, 379 00:18:55,750 --> 00:18:58,020 Speaker 2: it could have been one or two options, exactly as 380 00:18:58,020 --> 00:19:01,619 Speaker 2: you said, it's now 4 or 5 options. But the 381 00:19:01,619 --> 00:19:05,020 Speaker 2: point is, don't think it's not going to happen, or 382 00:19:05,020 --> 00:19:07,219 Speaker 2: don't try and think, look, this isn't realistic. 383 00:19:07,770 --> 00:19:11,889 Speaker 2: What may have seemed before as unrealistic, 100% tariffs on China, 384 00:19:12,010 --> 00:19:17,399 Speaker 2: for example, 25% increased tariffs on India is now conceivable. 385 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,770 Speaker 2: So your planning is no longer theoretic. You need the 386 00:19:20,770 --> 00:19:24,849 Speaker 2: more tools you have, the more scenarios that you have planned. 387 00:19:25,739 --> 00:19:28,469 Speaker 2: The more you'll be better able to anticipate and be 388 00:19:28,469 --> 00:19:33,030 Speaker 2: ready for when the inevitable does come. It's those who think, look, 389 00:19:33,069 --> 00:19:35,670 Speaker 2: that's not gonna happen, or he'll change his mind. 390 00:19:36,189 --> 00:19:39,270 Speaker 2: Who are often left caught out. What we see too 391 00:19:39,270 --> 00:19:42,310 Speaker 2: is there's a lot of, because of the two-tiered economy with, 392 00:19:42,430 --> 00:19:45,270 Speaker 2: you know, economic growth, very strong in this region, but 393 00:19:45,270 --> 00:19:48,430 Speaker 2: not so much in established economies. You've got more capital 394 00:19:48,430 --> 00:19:51,670 Speaker 2: coming here, more businesses. And so there's more competition and 395 00:19:51,670 --> 00:19:54,709 Speaker 2: more pressure. We've been talking to one CEO and she 396 00:19:54,709 --> 00:19:56,790 Speaker 2: said to me, Mark, before it was just enough for 397 00:19:56,790 --> 00:19:59,540 Speaker 2: me to know who my competitor was. Now I need 398 00:19:59,540 --> 00:20:02,429 Speaker 2: to know where my competitors do their manufacturing. 399 00:20:02,819 --> 00:20:05,339 Speaker 2: What their supply chains are, where do they store, where 400 00:20:05,339 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 2: do they ship from, because then I can overlay the 401 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:12,089 Speaker 2: tariffs and see where I can start to play. Ben, 402 00:20:12,140 --> 00:20:14,300 Speaker 2: I need, I know I need to do that because 403 00:20:14,300 --> 00:20:15,939 Speaker 2: they're doing the exact same thing to me. 404 00:20:16,750 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 2: So that scenario planning has broadened and that knowledge just 405 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 2: needs to go deeper of not just your competitors, but 406 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 2: also yourself and where you can get picked off. 407 00:20:26,550 --> 00:20:30,869 Speaker 1: Right, so that is the complexity that seems inevitable that 408 00:20:30,869 --> 00:20:33,589 Speaker 1: would be associated with the cost of doing business with 409 00:20:33,589 --> 00:20:37,349 Speaker 1: the US. Are we seeing some degree of coordination among 410 00:20:37,349 --> 00:20:40,188 Speaker 1: the non-US actors? So whether they want to trade with 411 00:20:40,189 --> 00:20:43,349 Speaker 1: the US or trade amongst each other, is there a 412 00:20:43,349 --> 00:20:45,150 Speaker 1: sense of, you know, we're all in it together and 413 00:20:45,150 --> 00:20:48,420 Speaker 1: let's coordinate, or has Trump managed to divide the whole 414 00:20:48,420 --> 00:20:49,979 Speaker 1: world and everybody's for themselves? 415 00:20:50,449 --> 00:20:54,300 Speaker 2: I think you've seen what you've seen the US do 416 00:20:54,300 --> 00:20:55,389 Speaker 2: is 417 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,238 Speaker 2: Force countries to re-evaluate their relationships and what it is 418 00:20:59,239 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 2: that they probably stand for. Uh, I think I'm right 419 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,439 Speaker 2: in saying Prime Minister Wong here in Singapore said what 420 00:21:03,439 --> 00:21:06,469 Speaker 2: you'll see is like-minded nations start to come together more 421 00:21:06,839 --> 00:21:09,439 Speaker 2: on issues. Look what's happening in Europe, for example, where 422 00:21:09,439 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 2: Europe has said to some extent, look, we need to 423 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,389 Speaker 2: look after ourselves more. We need to be stronger ourselves is, 424 00:21:15,719 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 2: you know, we can't rely on the US as much 425 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 2: as we could, so they're increasing their defense spending. 426 00:21:21,030 --> 00:21:23,660 Speaker 2: Uh, there's been reports this week out of Taiwan, for example, 427 00:21:23,750 --> 00:21:26,339 Speaker 2: where Taiwan haven't got the trade deal they want. And 428 00:21:26,339 --> 00:21:29,510 Speaker 2: there are some stories coming out there of, well, what 429 00:21:29,510 --> 00:21:32,390 Speaker 2: is our relationship with the US? Where is that? Where 430 00:21:32,390 --> 00:21:36,389 Speaker 2: is that going? I think if you're a US company now, 431 00:21:37,209 --> 00:21:40,810 Speaker 2: There will potentially be pressure over the coming year to say, look, uh, 432 00:21:41,250 --> 00:21:44,930 Speaker 2: almost to, to remind people of that certainty that you 433 00:21:44,930 --> 00:21:49,300 Speaker 2: can provide. So, in the UK, for example, in our research, people, 434 00:21:49,410 --> 00:21:54,290 Speaker 2: we saw a shift amongst the general population, where people 435 00:21:54,290 --> 00:21:58,400 Speaker 2: weren't as, uh, weren't as supportive of having the US. 436 00:21:59,599 --> 00:22:03,250 Speaker 2: Invest in defense funding as they were two years ago. 437 00:22:03,780 --> 00:22:05,819 Speaker 2: In Australia, so these are two very strong allies of 438 00:22:05,819 --> 00:22:09,379 Speaker 2: the US. In Australia, people, I think around 15% of 439 00:22:09,380 --> 00:22:12,660 Speaker 2: Australians say our relationship with the US, the best days 440 00:22:12,660 --> 00:22:15,660 Speaker 2: are ahead of us, around 55% say the best days 441 00:22:15,660 --> 00:22:16,500 Speaker 2: are behind us. 442 00:22:17,260 --> 00:22:21,270 Speaker 2: Uh, people, yeah, we went a bit further in Australia. 36% 443 00:22:21,270 --> 00:22:24,880 Speaker 2: of people said that they would support down downgrading the 444 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 2: relationship with the US. 33% are against it. So 3% different, 445 00:22:28,719 --> 00:22:32,919 Speaker 2: but it's still quite a significant part. So countries, people 446 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,469 Speaker 2: in these countries are now starting to say, look, what, 447 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,599 Speaker 2: what is that relationship with the US? 448 00:22:38,410 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 2: What, how, how reliable can they be? Now that provides opportunities, 449 00:22:43,109 --> 00:22:46,909 Speaker 2: for example, for some firms who may have an American, uh, 450 00:22:46,959 --> 00:22:50,010 Speaker 2: competition to sort of position in the marketplace, but likewise 451 00:22:50,010 --> 00:22:52,209 Speaker 2: for American firms, is how do you now position yourself 452 00:22:52,209 --> 00:22:55,250 Speaker 2: in the marketplace when you're starting to see this undercurrent 453 00:22:55,250 --> 00:22:59,688 Speaker 2: of uncertainty created about the US and, and activities with 454 00:22:59,689 --> 00:23:00,319 Speaker 2: the US? 455 00:23:01,229 --> 00:23:03,550 Speaker 1: Mark, I was in Copenhagen a couple of months ago 456 00:23:03,550 --> 00:23:06,430 Speaker 1: in the grocery stores there, like Made in American maple 457 00:23:06,430 --> 00:23:09,109 Speaker 1: syrup or bourbon whiskey. They put a little star next 458 00:23:09,109 --> 00:23:11,170 Speaker 1: to it so that people can boycott those products. 459 00:23:12,310 --> 00:23:13,219 Speaker 2: So yeah, exactly. 460 00:23:14,660 --> 00:23:16,739 Speaker 2: If you've got, you can see that that real world 461 00:23:16,739 --> 00:23:19,069 Speaker 2: example of, and so if you're those US firms, well, 462 00:23:19,109 --> 00:23:21,270 Speaker 2: how do we, how do we reconnect? How do we, 463 00:23:21,339 --> 00:23:23,829 Speaker 2: how do we make ourselves relevant again? Uh, but I 464 00:23:23,829 --> 00:23:26,510 Speaker 2: think that is not just in the boardroom, but sort 465 00:23:26,510 --> 00:23:28,630 Speaker 2: of around the kitchen table, these decisions are being made 466 00:23:28,630 --> 00:23:29,149 Speaker 2: now too. 467 00:23:29,910 --> 00:23:33,859 Speaker 1: It's a pretty, pretty palpable. I can see that on Australia, Mark, 468 00:23:33,969 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: I'll just share with you that in the last, say, 469 00:23:35,810 --> 00:23:40,199 Speaker 1: 10 years I've seen successive Australian government officials come to Singapore, 470 00:23:40,530 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 1: and their vision of where Australia's future lies in my 471 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,839 Speaker 1: own eyes in the last 10 years have transformed completely 472 00:23:48,209 --> 00:23:50,930 Speaker 1: during Trump 1.0 and part of Biden administration. 473 00:23:51,012 --> 00:23:54,713 Speaker 1: They were very Western-centric and they were talking about how 474 00:23:55,042 --> 00:23:59,083 Speaker 1: they see the quad in Australia, India, China, Japan, Korea 475 00:23:59,083 --> 00:24:02,312 Speaker 1: being these four like-minded economies in concert with the US 476 00:24:02,603 --> 00:24:04,363 Speaker 1: in the last couple of years I've seen a sea 477 00:24:04,363 --> 00:24:07,401 Speaker 1: change where the Australian government officials are again recognizing their 478 00:24:07,402 --> 00:24:11,322 Speaker 1: centrality within Asia and their same biases with China and others. So, 479 00:24:11,473 --> 00:24:12,003 Speaker 1: so yeah. 480 00:24:12,125 --> 00:24:13,755 Speaker 1: I mean, to your point, I mean the countries and 481 00:24:13,755 --> 00:24:18,826 Speaker 1: companies are reevaluating where they stay with this competition in mind. 482 00:24:19,316 --> 00:24:21,754 Speaker 2: You mentioned Australia. we've just, you know, this year is 483 00:24:21,755 --> 00:24:23,916 Speaker 2: a great example. You had a prime minister visit, and 484 00:24:23,916 --> 00:24:26,115 Speaker 2: then the state visit by the Governor General, I think 485 00:24:26,115 --> 00:24:29,465 Speaker 2: last week or the week before, reinforcing again the importance, uh, 486 00:24:29,556 --> 00:24:31,995 Speaker 2: not just of Singapore in the hub, but of, of 487 00:24:31,994 --> 00:24:33,156 Speaker 2: those realignments. 488 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:35,909 Speaker 1: By all means, I want to just go back to 489 00:24:35,910 --> 00:24:39,189 Speaker 1: you because you're just touching on UK and European sort 490 00:24:39,189 --> 00:24:43,310 Speaker 1: of situation a little bit. When you look at your 491 00:24:43,310 --> 00:24:45,670 Speaker 1: client universe in that part of the world, as you 492 00:24:45,670 --> 00:24:47,599 Speaker 1: pointed out that, you know, defense spending is going up, 493 00:24:47,709 --> 00:24:49,839 Speaker 1: there is this notion that, you know, can't rely on 494 00:24:49,839 --> 00:24:53,229 Speaker 1: the US on defense matter as much. But in terms 495 00:24:53,229 --> 00:24:56,339 Speaker 1: of dealing with China or dealing with the global South, 496 00:24:56,589 --> 00:24:58,948 Speaker 1: either UK or Europe, where do you see? I mean, 497 00:24:59,000 --> 00:24:59,410 Speaker 1: are they? 498 00:24:59,464 --> 00:25:02,425 Speaker 1: Being strategic enough or you feel like you have to 499 00:25:02,425 --> 00:25:05,155 Speaker 1: guide them toward thinking about those. It's not a bubble, 500 00:25:05,214 --> 00:25:07,135 Speaker 1: but there's a seismic change coming to the world. 501 00:25:07,494 --> 00:25:13,694 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's certainly enormous economic opportunities here as well, and defenses. 502 00:25:14,375 --> 00:25:17,895 Speaker 2: Our office is not near La Posad, and that's where 503 00:25:17,895 --> 00:25:20,964 Speaker 2: President Macron was a few weeks ago. So I think 504 00:25:20,964 --> 00:25:23,734 Speaker 2: that there is that reevaluation very much here. There is 505 00:25:23,734 --> 00:25:24,935 Speaker 2: an awareness of that. 506 00:25:25,270 --> 00:25:27,939 Speaker 2: Too, uh, there are people, obviously, you know, there are 507 00:25:27,939 --> 00:25:31,739 Speaker 2: some companies who are given the, uh, slow growth relative 508 00:25:31,739 --> 00:25:34,180 Speaker 2: to this part of the world in, in Western Europe, 509 00:25:34,380 --> 00:25:37,260 Speaker 2: people looking for bargains, but they are very, very much 510 00:25:37,260 --> 00:25:39,500 Speaker 2: looking to this part of the world to grow. We've 511 00:25:39,500 --> 00:25:45,089 Speaker 2: seen a 42% increase here in Singapore and private family offices, 38%, uh, 512 00:25:45,260 --> 00:25:48,139 Speaker 2: increase in, uh, food and beverage businesses here as well. 513 00:25:48,180 --> 00:25:51,699 Speaker 2: So that tells you consumers are spending. So the, the region, 514 00:25:51,780 --> 00:25:52,939 Speaker 2: the days of the region. 515 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,069 Speaker 2: Uh, it's almost sort of a, a new renaissance where, 516 00:25:56,319 --> 00:26:01,489 Speaker 2: given the economic growth, given the relative political stability too, 517 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,708 Speaker 2: and we can discuss that, but, uh, the relative political 518 00:26:04,709 --> 00:26:08,479 Speaker 2: stability too, you are seeing firms look more to this 519 00:26:08,479 --> 00:26:13,530 Speaker 2: region than before, uh, and look for those opportunities, given the, the, the, 520 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:14,399 Speaker 2: the shifts. 521 00:26:15,170 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 1: Yeah, couldn't agree more, Mark. I mean, when we look 522 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,599 Speaker 1: at the data, both with respect to financial flows as 523 00:26:19,599 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 1: well as foreign direct investment, countries like Malaysia, Singapore are 524 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:24,959 Speaker 1: basically going through a golden age. It's never been this 525 00:26:24,959 --> 00:26:29,839 Speaker 1: strong and it's pretty remarkable. I want to shift the 526 00:26:29,839 --> 00:26:35,389 Speaker 1: subject from just the ongoing conjunct of uncertainty to bigger 527 00:26:35,390 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: sort of medium term issues. So one is the issue 528 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:38,079 Speaker 1: of climate. 529 00:26:38,199 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 1: Change with Trump 2.0, there's been some very serious pushback, 530 00:26:43,199 --> 00:26:46,119 Speaker 1: and when you look at the big beautiful bill, clearly 531 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:50,790 Speaker 1: leaning the US toward fossil fuel related developments and certainly 532 00:26:51,079 --> 00:26:54,438 Speaker 1: taking some of those credits and incentives associated with green 533 00:26:54,439 --> 00:26:57,719 Speaker 1: energy transition. So are companies sort of going with the 534 00:26:57,719 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 1: US zeitgeist? Climate change is passe now. 535 00:27:00,729 --> 00:27:04,930 Speaker 2: I, I, our advice to companies on climate change, ESG, 536 00:27:04,959 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 2: these issues. If you believe in it and really believed 537 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:08,479 Speaker 2: in it. 538 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,109 Speaker 2: There's no reason it shouldn't be relevant still. Now how 539 00:27:12,109 --> 00:27:14,109 Speaker 2: you message it's gonna have to change to make it 540 00:27:14,109 --> 00:27:17,050 Speaker 2: relevant to, as exactly we're talking about cost of living 541 00:27:17,050 --> 00:27:19,020 Speaker 2: and what have you. But these issues are still very, 542 00:27:19,069 --> 00:27:22,389 Speaker 2: very relevant. What we find, be it, uh, you know, 543 00:27:22,510 --> 00:27:25,849 Speaker 2: be in Malaysia or, or, or the UK or the US, 544 00:27:26,189 --> 00:27:29,540 Speaker 2: people are looking for businesses to create jobs. Uh, and, 545 00:27:29,589 --> 00:27:31,869 Speaker 2: and what are they doing in, in the economy to 546 00:27:31,869 --> 00:27:32,949 Speaker 2: help grow the economy? 547 00:27:33,739 --> 00:27:37,889 Speaker 2: And as a result of that, the G part of 548 00:27:37,890 --> 00:27:42,149 Speaker 2: the ESG now is almost the time to talk about that, 549 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 2: cause you can't have, you know, a strong E, you 550 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,400 Speaker 2: can't have a strong S if you don't have a 551 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 2: strong G. And making that relevant, talking to that in 552 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,010 Speaker 2: terms of that, that people want to hear, we've been 553 00:27:53,010 --> 00:27:55,439 Speaker 2: working with some clients, for example, uh, they say, look, 554 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 2: if you think cost of living is bad now, imagine 555 00:27:58,000 --> 00:27:59,879 Speaker 2: what it's gonna be like in 5 years when climate 556 00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:01,250 Speaker 2: change starts to impact crops. 557 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,739 Speaker 2: Yep. If you think that goods are expensive now, imagine 558 00:28:05,739 --> 00:28:07,729 Speaker 2: what it's gonna be like if we had to do 559 00:28:07,729 --> 00:28:10,489 Speaker 2: all that manufacturing here and in terms of the labor 560 00:28:10,489 --> 00:28:13,130 Speaker 2: costs and the, you know, sort of pay, pay those prices. 561 00:28:13,380 --> 00:28:16,579 Speaker 2: So it's providing a context, it's providing some messaging that 562 00:28:16,579 --> 00:28:20,099 Speaker 2: makes it worthwhile. Uh, those issues are still important and 563 00:28:20,099 --> 00:28:24,959 Speaker 2: they still should be treated as important. How you communicate that, uh, needs, 564 00:28:25,030 --> 00:28:27,500 Speaker 2: needs to be changed, but because you're exactly right, it's, 565 00:28:27,510 --> 00:28:29,938 Speaker 2: it's that, that context has changed, but doesn't mean the 566 00:28:29,939 --> 00:28:31,139 Speaker 2: importance of the issue has. 567 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,739 Speaker 1: And the fact that companies are like deleting the reference 568 00:28:35,739 --> 00:28:39,219 Speaker 1: to ESG from their websites and so on, you think 569 00:28:39,219 --> 00:28:42,619 Speaker 1: that's just being a student pragmatic, it's not really changing 570 00:28:42,619 --> 00:28:44,170 Speaker 1: the core beliefs of companies. 571 00:28:44,670 --> 00:28:45,140 Speaker 2: It's 572 00:28:45,140 --> 00:28:46,459 Speaker 2: been, yeah, I think, look, I think it's been a 573 00:28:46,459 --> 00:28:49,979 Speaker 2: student pragmatic, but there's certainly an opportunity to give those 574 00:28:49,979 --> 00:28:53,780 Speaker 2: issues voice as well, and people will be looking for 575 00:28:53,780 --> 00:28:56,819 Speaker 2: people to defend those issues and to say why these 576 00:28:56,819 --> 00:28:58,660 Speaker 2: issues matter to me, but in again a way that 577 00:28:58,670 --> 00:28:59,859 Speaker 2: that's personally relevant. 578 00:29:01,209 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 1: OK, so let's shift to the issue that is both 579 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 1: of short term and long term nature, which is tech disruption, 580 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:09,479 Speaker 1: namely from AI. 581 00:29:09,770 --> 00:29:12,949 Speaker 1: Um, now there's a lot of theoretical discussion about this that, 582 00:29:12,959 --> 00:29:15,199 Speaker 1: you know, AI is going to improve in such a 583 00:29:15,199 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 1: dramatic manner that you know we're going to have a lot, 584 00:29:17,530 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 1: a lot of white collar jobs fully automated and it 585 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,880 Speaker 1: would create a crisis of jobs first actually in the 586 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,000 Speaker 1: developed world, but it might also follow into the aspiring 587 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 1: developing world which wants to sort of move up the 588 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,589 Speaker 1: value ladder. What are you picking up? Is that anxiety 589 00:29:30,589 --> 00:29:33,239 Speaker 1: really a rich country issue, or are we seeing this 590 00:29:33,239 --> 00:29:35,479 Speaker 1: across the board? And what are companies thinking? 591 00:29:36,119 --> 00:29:39,270 Speaker 2: We're, we're seeing this across the board, and what we're seeing, 592 00:29:39,449 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 2: for example, if you'd like, it's for developed countries, a 593 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,750 Speaker 2: lot of people, especially families are worried about what's, what's 594 00:29:44,750 --> 00:29:47,089 Speaker 2: that job that my son or daughter are going to 595 00:29:47,089 --> 00:29:50,079 Speaker 2: have out of school. So even if they're doing law, 596 00:29:50,209 --> 00:29:52,689 Speaker 2: for example, well, why are you doing law? Because that 597 00:29:52,689 --> 00:29:55,010 Speaker 2: there's a concern that mid-range that will get you on 598 00:29:55,010 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 2: the ladder and therefore your career could potentially be gone 599 00:29:58,160 --> 00:29:59,050 Speaker 2: by AI. 600 00:29:59,550 --> 00:30:01,790 Speaker 2: Very much an attack if you like on that uh 601 00:30:01,790 --> 00:30:05,979 Speaker 2: that that upper white collar working class, and that's causing concern, 602 00:30:06,349 --> 00:30:11,069 Speaker 2: that's uh very much causing concern amongst families, especially when 603 00:30:11,069 --> 00:30:14,109 Speaker 2: they're looking for the future, and where is it that 604 00:30:14,109 --> 00:30:14,949 Speaker 2: we want to be based. 605 00:30:15,670 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 2: Here, here in the region, it's a huge issue too, 606 00:30:18,589 --> 00:30:20,469 Speaker 2: because it takes a lot away a lot of those jobs, 607 00:30:20,550 --> 00:30:23,780 Speaker 2: which have been core to to some economies. So for example, 608 00:30:24,069 --> 00:30:26,410 Speaker 2: I was in Manila and I know there's a lot 609 00:30:26,410 --> 00:30:29,939 Speaker 2: of very deep concern there about AI. Around 2 million 610 00:30:29,939 --> 00:30:33,229 Speaker 2: Filipinos work in call centers. Now, literally, as of today, 611 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,709 Speaker 2: you don't need a call center. AI could, could do that. 612 00:30:36,829 --> 00:30:41,689 Speaker 2: So what's the re-education look like? What is the, uh, the, 613 00:30:41,709 --> 00:30:44,709 Speaker 2: the new skills that you're going to help these people develop? 614 00:30:45,339 --> 00:30:48,780 Speaker 2: As they move out and move into other areas. So 615 00:30:48,780 --> 00:30:51,619 Speaker 2: boards are using it in their planning, uh, using it 616 00:30:51,619 --> 00:30:54,780 Speaker 2: in day to day. Where we see the clever boards 617 00:30:54,780 --> 00:30:58,219 Speaker 2: use it is more to take away administrative tasks that 618 00:30:58,219 --> 00:31:02,140 Speaker 2: helps them think more, that helps them focus on strategic 619 00:31:02,140 --> 00:31:04,180 Speaker 2: issues and do more strategic planning. 620 00:31:05,099 --> 00:31:07,930 Speaker 2: I think what we are seeing, I talked about bubbles too, 621 00:31:08,380 --> 00:31:11,099 Speaker 2: what you'd call those inner city people with sort of 622 00:31:11,099 --> 00:31:15,300 Speaker 2: higher incomes, college educated or postgraduate degree, more favorable to 623 00:31:15,300 --> 00:31:18,819 Speaker 2: AI than the community, than the general community. Now, what's 624 00:31:18,819 --> 00:31:21,420 Speaker 2: the consequence of that? The consequences of that could well 625 00:31:21,420 --> 00:31:23,859 Speaker 2: be that AI might not be able to reach its 626 00:31:23,859 --> 00:31:27,420 Speaker 2: full potential or where some see the potential because of regulation. 627 00:31:28,260 --> 00:31:32,359 Speaker 2: Uh, given the general community's concern, uh, it won't be 628 00:31:32,359 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 2: long that until politicians start to regulate or try and 629 00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,920 Speaker 2: attempt to regulate AI. So there is still very much 630 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,739 Speaker 2: a case to be made of a, what is AI? Uh, 631 00:31:42,959 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 2: I go on Google and type in some words and 632 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,520 Speaker 2: that comes up, that, that's fine, or, or is it 633 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 2: sort of the, uh, you know, the, the, the really 634 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:53,709 Speaker 2: forward predictive. So, so, what is AI? Why does it matter, 635 00:31:53,959 --> 00:31:55,239 Speaker 2: and what are the benefits of it? 636 00:31:56,020 --> 00:31:59,369 Speaker 2: Because given there's a bit of that gap about the benefits, uh, 637 00:31:59,420 --> 00:32:01,619 Speaker 2: you know, if you're, if you're a politician and looking 638 00:32:01,619 --> 00:32:04,939 Speaker 2: to an election, people aren't happy about AI or to 639 00:32:04,939 --> 00:32:08,739 Speaker 2: your point, nervous or concerned about it, regulation. 640 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,920 Speaker 2: Bring in regulation, uh, try and dampen it, and you 641 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,119 Speaker 2: can see the cons and and you can see why 642 00:32:15,119 --> 00:32:18,359 Speaker 2: that would happen. So, you know, anyone who's in, in AI, 643 00:32:18,439 --> 00:32:22,079 Speaker 2: you need to make that case and, uh, make that 644 00:32:22,079 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 2: case publicly, because, again, on these things, no one's gonna 645 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:26,550 Speaker 2: do it for you. A lot of people say, Well, 646 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,599 Speaker 2: politicians should do this. Well, well, why? Have you made 647 00:32:30,599 --> 00:32:32,959 Speaker 2: the case publicly? Have you given them that, that social 648 00:32:32,959 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 2: permission to make the case? And if they do what 649 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 2: you say, are you prepared to come out and back them? 650 00:32:38,300 --> 00:32:40,410 Speaker 2: Are you prepared to say, yes, this is a good idea. 651 00:32:41,060 --> 00:32:43,420 Speaker 2: That's what people are looking for more, especially given this 652 00:32:43,420 --> 00:32:45,859 Speaker 2: uncertainty and the caution we were talking about earlier. 653 00:32:47,310 --> 00:32:49,709 Speaker 1: Right, that that quiet anger you're talking about could just 654 00:32:49,709 --> 00:32:54,949 Speaker 1: might become very non-quiet disquiet, because, you know, it will be, 655 00:32:55,229 --> 00:32:57,550 Speaker 1: you know, much more sort of clear and present in 656 00:32:57,550 --> 00:33:00,030 Speaker 1: people's mind if we start saying, you know, I, Mark, 657 00:33:00,109 --> 00:33:02,430 Speaker 1: I think that it will, the disruption will not begin 658 00:33:02,430 --> 00:33:05,880 Speaker 1: with mass firing. It'll be like a very little hiring. 659 00:33:06,260 --> 00:33:08,089 Speaker 1: And that on the margin just makes it harder and 660 00:33:08,089 --> 00:33:10,369 Speaker 1: harder for people to find themselves gainfully employed. I think 661 00:33:10,369 --> 00:33:12,930 Speaker 1: that's the way it could go if indeed, you know, 662 00:33:13,010 --> 00:33:15,969 Speaker 1: these sort of prophecies about it becoming super intelligent and 663 00:33:15,969 --> 00:33:18,430 Speaker 1: being able to do everything we want to come in. Mark, 664 00:33:18,540 --> 00:33:19,209 Speaker 2: it also comes 665 00:33:19,209 --> 00:33:21,209 Speaker 2: in, sorry to interrupt, but it also comes into what 666 00:33:21,219 --> 00:33:22,449 Speaker 2: what's the future of work. 667 00:33:22,859 --> 00:33:25,180 Speaker 2: So what we've been working and sort of hearing with 668 00:33:25,180 --> 00:33:27,369 Speaker 2: some of our clients is, uh, you know, the notion 669 00:33:27,369 --> 00:33:29,810 Speaker 2: that you and I had growing up of, you go, 670 00:33:29,849 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 2: you get a job, you get another job, another job, 671 00:33:32,969 --> 00:33:35,488 Speaker 2: those sort of days are starting to break down. Uh, 672 00:33:35,569 --> 00:33:38,479 Speaker 2: you could have 2 or 3 jobs. You could also 673 00:33:38,479 --> 00:33:41,890 Speaker 2: have your own, you could then have your digital, uh, uh, uh, 674 00:33:41,969 --> 00:33:45,880 Speaker 2: sort of career as well. So the notion of work 675 00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,199 Speaker 2: and what work is like in the next 10 years, 676 00:33:48,410 --> 00:33:50,969 Speaker 2: AI could well fit into that quite neatly. 677 00:33:51,609 --> 00:33:54,310 Speaker 2: But again, it's making that case of, you know, where 678 00:33:54,310 --> 00:33:57,750 Speaker 2: are we going, what does work look like, what does 679 00:33:57,750 --> 00:33:59,910 Speaker 2: that mean and how does it fit into that? 680 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 1: Mark, also going back to that anxiety issue that we 681 00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 1: discussed earlier, that so far the evidence of people in 682 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,340 Speaker 1: the gay economy is that they actually become more anxious 683 00:34:09,340 --> 00:34:12,389 Speaker 1: because there isn't a solidity of having a corporate behind you. 684 00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:15,319 Speaker 1: It doesn't provide you a group insurance plan or 26 685 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 1: days of leave. You're sort of your own boss. I 686 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 1: think for some people it's OK, but I think for 687 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,009 Speaker 1: a lot of people it's a really hard adoption. 688 00:34:22,669 --> 00:34:25,239 Speaker 2: That that's, that transitional adaption is going to be a 689 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:26,549 Speaker 2: tough period to upgrade. 690 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:27,159 Speaker 1: Yeah. 691 00:34:27,530 --> 00:34:30,820 Speaker 1: Um, we've talked a lot about the US and Europe 692 00:34:30,820 --> 00:34:34,409 Speaker 1: and also Southeast Asia. Let's talk a little bit about China. Uh, 693 00:34:34,500 --> 00:34:36,459 Speaker 1: when you talk to Southeast Asian companies, which are not 694 00:34:36,459 --> 00:34:40,419 Speaker 1: of Chinese origin, but, you know, grown from ground up 695 00:34:40,419 --> 00:34:43,540 Speaker 1: in the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, and so on, how are 696 00:34:43,540 --> 00:34:48,290 Speaker 1: they dealing with Chinese know-how, Chinese tech, and Chinese capital? 697 00:34:49,129 --> 00:34:49,139 Speaker 2: That 698 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,879 Speaker 2: it's one of the things that's amazed me being in 699 00:34:52,879 --> 00:34:55,799 Speaker 2: the region is, uh, sort of the focus on the 700 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,120 Speaker 2: US yet, uh, it's still China that is the dominant 701 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 2: trading partner. Take Indonesia, there's a lot of excitement about 702 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,659 Speaker 2: the trade deal that was done, yet the US only 703 00:35:05,659 --> 00:35:11,800 Speaker 2: represents 10%, whereas China's what, 25, 26%, I think I'm saying. Um, there, there, 704 00:35:11,879 --> 00:35:14,479 Speaker 2: there is, I think what's what you're seeing is sort 705 00:35:14,479 --> 00:35:18,159 Speaker 2: of that ability to just separate the political from the tech. 706 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,560 Speaker 2: As well, uh, a lot of what what China's doing 707 00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,639 Speaker 2: is sort of sort of quite advanced, and companies and 708 00:35:24,639 --> 00:35:27,959 Speaker 2: businesses are looking to get involved in that. Uh, the, 709 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:31,870 Speaker 2: the being associated with China is still for some, uh, 710 00:35:31,879 --> 00:35:33,439 Speaker 2: not so much a hindrance, but just a sort of 711 00:35:33,439 --> 00:35:36,879 Speaker 2: a caution that that still needs to be navigated, especially 712 00:35:36,879 --> 00:35:39,030 Speaker 2: if they're operating in other markets as well. 713 00:35:40,500 --> 00:35:44,549 Speaker 1: And in terms of the role of Chinese capital, are 714 00:35:44,550 --> 00:35:47,669 Speaker 1: we going to see a spate of South Asian companies 715 00:35:47,669 --> 00:35:50,310 Speaker 1: that will be acquired by Chinese businesses? Will we see 716 00:35:50,310 --> 00:35:53,629 Speaker 1: a lot of strategic investments where you do joint ventures 717 00:35:53,629 --> 00:35:55,120 Speaker 1: as opposed to the Chinese coming and just kind of 718 00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,189 Speaker 1: flooding your market with those things? Will countries play a 719 00:35:58,189 --> 00:36:00,540 Speaker 1: little bit of more pragmatic game vis a vis China, 720 00:36:00,709 --> 00:36:04,189 Speaker 1: where they would insist on some degree of coexistence as 721 00:36:04,189 --> 00:36:07,069 Speaker 1: opposed to just opening themselves to flows and ideas from 722 00:36:07,070 --> 00:36:09,020 Speaker 1: China to take over their markets. 723 00:36:09,459 --> 00:36:09,830 Speaker 1: I, I, 724 00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:10,399 Speaker 2: I think you're already 725 00:36:10,399 --> 00:36:13,360 Speaker 2: seeing some of that pragmatism coming in already, uh, you 726 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:14,800 Speaker 2: look at sort of the visits that you've had from 727 00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,080 Speaker 2: the region into China, you've seen sort of sort of 728 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:21,639 Speaker 2: China's involvement as well. That, uh, that, that suits in 729 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:23,790 Speaker 2: China's economy still. 730 00:36:24,899 --> 00:36:27,100 Speaker 2: Some have argued that it sort of hasn't really recovered 731 00:36:27,100 --> 00:36:32,580 Speaker 2: from the, the housing in 20, 202021. Uh, so that 732 00:36:32,580 --> 00:36:36,060 Speaker 2: sort of model of that greater cooperation, you're seeing that, uh, 733 00:36:36,500 --> 00:36:38,658 Speaker 2: here in the region, I think you'll continue to see 734 00:36:38,659 --> 00:36:41,379 Speaker 2: more of that cooperation to, especially given, as we were 735 00:36:41,379 --> 00:36:45,540 Speaker 2: talking about earlier, um, with people looking at the US 736 00:36:45,540 --> 00:36:47,979 Speaker 2: again or giving the US a second look, starting to 737 00:36:47,979 --> 00:36:50,179 Speaker 2: then look for, well, where is that resourcing going to 738 00:36:50,179 --> 00:36:52,179 Speaker 2: come from and how are we going to achieve this? 739 00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:55,759 Speaker 1: At the beginning of this conversation, you talked about Prime 740 00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:59,979 Speaker 1: Minister Wong's speech after the big reciprocal day tariffs were announced. 741 00:37:00,389 --> 00:37:05,270 Speaker 1: It was a rather strident speech about the Singapore's underlying 742 00:37:05,270 --> 00:37:09,189 Speaker 1: model of open markets and open trade being challenged and 743 00:37:09,189 --> 00:37:12,070 Speaker 1: how we sort of benefited from the benevolence of large 744 00:37:12,070 --> 00:37:15,070 Speaker 1: Western powers and maybe we can take it for granted. 745 00:37:15,679 --> 00:37:19,790 Speaker 1: What's your sense? Uh, is Singapore by being that worried 746 00:37:19,790 --> 00:37:23,800 Speaker 1: and that paranoid, rightly placed to deal with all these, uh, mayhem? 747 00:37:24,570 --> 00:37:27,009 Speaker 2: You, um, well, uh, uh, there's a reason that speech 748 00:37:27,010 --> 00:37:29,888 Speaker 2: went viral, uh, and there was a reason that speech 749 00:37:29,889 --> 00:37:33,129 Speaker 2: got such a huge, uh, you know, friends of mine 750 00:37:33,129 --> 00:37:35,279 Speaker 2: who aren't political at all like, Oh, did you see 751 00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,850 Speaker 2: that speech for the Singaporean Prime Minister? So I think 752 00:37:37,850 --> 00:37:40,770 Speaker 2: he touched the chord about that friendship, uh, and about 753 00:37:40,770 --> 00:37:42,979 Speaker 2: the need to be able to rely. And I think 754 00:37:42,979 --> 00:37:47,370 Speaker 2: Singapore has demonstrated throughout, throughout its, you know, now 60 years, uh, 755 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:49,449 Speaker 2: that it can be that, that bridge. 756 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,799 Speaker 2: To the region, but that it also has its its 757 00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:56,110 Speaker 2: own values, it also has its own purpose as well, 758 00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,199 Speaker 2: so that will become all the more important, uh, in 759 00:37:59,199 --> 00:38:02,550 Speaker 2: navigating as we see shifting alliances come through. 760 00:38:03,679 --> 00:38:06,070 Speaker 1: I think that's a really, really good note to end 761 00:38:06,070 --> 00:38:08,469 Speaker 1: this conversation. Mark, thank you so much for your time 762 00:38:08,469 --> 00:38:09,549 Speaker 1: and insights. No 763 00:38:09,550 --> 00:38:11,459 Speaker 2: worries. Thank you very much for the opportunity. 764 00:38:11,830 --> 00:38:13,229 Speaker 1: It was great to have you, and I'd like to 765 00:38:13,229 --> 00:38:15,549 Speaker 1: thank our listeners as well. Kope Time was produced by 766 00:38:15,550 --> 00:38:19,050 Speaker 1: Ken Delbridge at Spy Studios. Daisy Sharma and Violet Lee 767 00:38:19,050 --> 00:38:20,270 Speaker 1: provided additional assistance. 768 00:38:20,625 --> 00:38:23,425 Speaker 1: This podcast is for information only, does not constitute any 769 00:38:23,425 --> 00:38:26,614 Speaker 1: trade advice. All 159 episodes of Copy Time are available 770 00:38:26,614 --> 00:38:29,695 Speaker 1: on YouTube, as well as in all major podcast platforms, 771 00:38:29,945 --> 00:38:33,504 Speaker 1: including Apple, Google, and Spotify. As for our research publications, webinars, 772 00:38:33,544 --> 00:38:37,134 Speaker 1: you can find them all by searching DBS Research Library. 773 00:38:37,745 --> 00:38:38,945 Speaker 1: Have a great day.