Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
Speaker 1: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from
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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Victoria Fernandez
Speaker 1: joins us. Sorry to Paul's got some serious market questions
Speaker 1: in this melt up and participating. I just want to
Speaker 1: ask one question to Victoria Fernandez. Are the Kansas City
Speaker 1: Chiefs the new Dallas Cowboys discuss?
Speaker 2: Oh that's tough, You're just you know, the poor Cowboys.
Speaker 2: I couldn't believe that game that we saw. I don't no,
Speaker 2: it's going to be tough for anyone to beat Baltimore.
Speaker 2: So I think we'll have to wait and see you again.
Speaker 2: But we got some good games to watch.
Speaker 3: Tom.
Speaker 2: And by the way, I grew up watching wrestling. My
Speaker 2: mother used to go to the Houston Coliseum with Paul
Speaker 2: Bosh and watch wrestling when I was a kid, so.
Speaker 4: Everywhere that helped run the CFA example.
Speaker 5: Hey Victoria, I mean, you know, I would love to
Speaker 5: get your perspective on what did we see in the
Speaker 5: last two months of twenty twenty three when we had
Speaker 5: that huge move higher in stocks and bonds, and how
Speaker 5: does that set us up for twenty twenty four here,
Speaker 5: how do you think about this year?
Speaker 2: Yeah, coming off those October lows that we saw last year,
Speaker 2: there was just a.
Speaker 3: Tremendous amount of momentum.
Speaker 2: Most of that led by the fact that the market
Speaker 2: took a fed pivot full force and just priced in
Speaker 2: those six rate cuts starting in March. A soft landing
Speaker 2: was almost a one hundred percent probability from the view
Speaker 2: of the market.
Speaker 3: And you know, look, we all spoke.
Speaker 2: During that time period and we said, hey, wait a minute,
Speaker 2: the market is way ahead of itself, right, It's ahead
Speaker 2: of its skis here. We've got to have some of
Speaker 2: this price back out of the market, so we expect
Speaker 2: to see a pullback. We saw some of that in
Speaker 2: the first couple weeks of this year, but we're starting
Speaker 2: to see new highs again, but it's all led by
Speaker 2: those tech stops, that Magnificent seven.
Speaker 3: In our opinion, that's not sustainable for the whole year.
Speaker 1: I want to get back to brass tax Victoria Fernandez,
Speaker 1: Bob Dole, Bob Dole, brass tax Victoria. I type in
Speaker 1: a mutual fund from a UTE, which is basically a
Speaker 1: trust like fun like Rebecca Patterson would have known a
Speaker 1: Bessemer years ago. As conservative Victoria's you get for people
Speaker 1: scared stiff five year eighty fourth percentile, three year, ninetieth
Speaker 1: percentile one year, ninety percentile five years delivered twelve point
Speaker 1: four percent net clean after fees. That's what the market
Speaker 1: timers are missing. How do they catch up?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure they're gonna want to play catch
Speaker 2: up at this point. What they want to do is
Speaker 2: position themselves for the rest of this year and not
Speaker 2: worry about the part that they missed. But you can't
Speaker 2: do that by just going all in one area. So
Speaker 2: there's so much cash flow going into some of these
Speaker 2: magnificent seven stocks again, like we saw last year, that
Speaker 2: has to stop and we have to have a broadening out.
Speaker 2: So you look at those returns that you're just mentioning.
Speaker 2: I guarantee those are not concentrated, they're diversified. You've probably
Speaker 2: got a little bit of global exposure, which I think
Speaker 2: you can do, especially if the FED is going to
Speaker 2: be the first central bank to start cutting rates, you
Speaker 2: can dip your toe internationally. You know, I like my
Speaker 2: fixed income, so I want people to have some fixed
Speaker 2: income exposure, even if they keep it very short on
Speaker 2: the conservative side and give themselves five percent cash flow
Speaker 2: coming through. And I think you need to use some
Speaker 2: alternative options in regards to call options, in regards to
Speaker 2: long short portfolios. These are things that are going to
Speaker 2: help you position yourselves for the volatility that we expect
Speaker 2: coming over the next couple quarters, especially as earnings are
Speaker 2: not coming in as strong as many people expected.
Speaker 4: Paul.
Speaker 1: This fun Broadcom, Microsoft Cash, United Healthcare are the top four.
Speaker 1: This is a conservative grandma widow's fund.
Speaker 2: Paul.
Speaker 1: It is eleven point seven percent in semiconductors.
Speaker 4: That's unbelievable. That's a nice place to be, Victoria.
Speaker 5: I know you cut your teeth in the fixed income
Speaker 5: space at Faia's Seraphin one of my favorite clients from
Speaker 5: back in the day in Houston. Where do I go
Speaker 5: and fix income. Do I just sit in a two
Speaker 5: year treasury at four point three percent? Or do I
Speaker 5: try to take some credit risk here, because again I'm
Speaker 5: banking on a soft landing, So do I go out
Speaker 5: there and take some credit risk?
Speaker 2: So, Paul, it really depends on what you're trying to
Speaker 2: do with your fixed income allocation. If that's what you're
Speaker 2: using to generate cash flow, then yes, do a Barbelle
Speaker 2: strategy and put some in that short term. The two
Speaker 2: years actually a little bit overbought right now, So I
Speaker 2: would go even a little shorter twelve months, eighteen months,
Speaker 2: skip that two year period, and then go a little
Speaker 2: bit longer five year, seven year. Lock in some of
Speaker 2: those rates that we're seeing, especially now with a ten
Speaker 2: year back around a four to ten level. We think
Speaker 2: that's probably going to be towards the higher end of
Speaker 2: the trading range that we'll see for a while. Lock
Speaker 2: in some of those cash flows there. But look, credit
Speaker 2: is tight. We are not seeing spread widening like many
Speaker 2: people anticipated that we would see, and I think it's
Speaker 2: because the market anticipates that soft landing. But the way
Speaker 2: earnings are going right now, we have the blended net
Speaker 2: profit margin the lowest in three years. The quarter over
Speaker 2: quarter decline is the largest we've seen since the first
Speaker 2: quarter of twenty twenty. So I would be looking for
Speaker 2: some opportunities spreads to widen out a little bit. Then
Speaker 2: you can jump in and put some high quality bonds
Speaker 2: in there, so an investment grade credit and I think
Speaker 2: you're in a good spot.
Speaker 5: So on the equity side of Victoria again, I mean,
Speaker 5: Tom's been in that Magnificent seven all all along, so
Speaker 5: he's just kind of singing to the choir here.
Speaker 4: But how about the rest of us?
Speaker 5: What do we do here? Do we chase those names
Speaker 5: or do we try to find some value?
Speaker 3: Yeah, don't chase.
Speaker 2: Hopefully you've been in these names all along, right, Even
Speaker 2: though we've been more conservative and we feel like the
Speaker 2: soft landing is not a done deal at this point,
Speaker 2: we've still been fully invested in the market. Microsoft, however,
Speaker 2: is our only name out of the Magnificent seven that
Speaker 2: we've actually been overweight?
Speaker 4: Is the end? What's a pixie? Does there? Come on?
Speaker 1: What's a Bob Dail? I can't believe because he bobbed
Speaker 1: all overweight? Microsoft? Come on, Victoria, what's the magic about Microsoft?
Speaker 3: Well? Look, Microsoft is one of those names.
Speaker 2: And you know, when we talk to our clients, we
Speaker 2: say we want quality of earnings, strength of balance sheet,
Speaker 2: strong cash flows. Microsoft provides us that. We don't think
Speaker 2: you're going to see as much volatility in Microsoft as
Speaker 2: you're going to see in some of the other names
Speaker 2: that have shot up so significantly and then pulled back.
Speaker 3: And now they're back up again.
Speaker 2: Microsoft, out of all of them, has probably been the
Speaker 2: most steady and just moving slowly up into the right.
Speaker 2: So we think it's a good labor term holding in
Speaker 2: your portfolio.
Speaker 1: Twenty seconds. That's all the time. I got to Thank god,
Speaker 1: Lions are forty nine ers. Victoria please, Hey.
Speaker 2: I'm going for the forty nine.
Speaker 4: My god, it's just too much. I get rich once
Speaker 4: a year.
Speaker 1: Victoria.
Speaker 3: Oh, you can't beat that O line in Trent Williams.
Speaker 1: Come on, there we go, Victoria for this is real
Speaker 1: football talk. She's diable Texas. It's like she knows what
Speaker 1: it's just like. This is an esteemed guest. He's been
Speaker 1: a huge supporter of Bloomberg Savaniance. Brian Weezer's with Madison Wall,
Speaker 1: where he writes, writes rights and consults to the advertising industry,
Speaker 1: think Madmen, think Madison Avenue of Long Ago and far Away.
Speaker 1: Brian knows. I am a confirmed reader of Lucas Shaw
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg. I can't say enough about the value of
Speaker 1: Lucas Shaw's newsletter at Bloomberg. I'll put it out on LinkedIn.
Speaker 1: And also I Readigitay, which is like the Brian Rezer
Speaker 1: Report and Paul the industry that you follow that Brian
Speaker 1: Weezer's part of it's insane. It's like it's like Reavers
Speaker 1: from years ago. That's nuts.
Speaker 5: It is absolutely crazy. And thankfully for us Brian Weezers
Speaker 5: on top of the Brian Wheezer, he's a principal Madison
Speaker 5: and Wall. Hey, Brian, thanks so much for joining us here.
Speaker 5: You know, we got a report from Netflix last night
Speaker 5: and boy, they're.
Speaker 4: Doing it right.
Speaker 5: What are they doing right that perhaps the traditional media
Speaker 5: companies just aren't getting it right now.
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, thanks for having me as always,
Speaker 6: but yeah, it's what they're doing right. I think they're
Speaker 6: investing in their business. What a crazy idea that you
Speaker 6: can grow when you invest. But yeah, that's different than
Speaker 6: a lot of the media industry right now, where they're
Speaker 6: really talking more in terms of austerity, and what a shocker,
Speaker 6: they're not really growing as much. I think they've been
Speaker 6: focused on a global opportunity and the fact that there
Speaker 6: is more growth from globalization also shocking statement. And yet
Speaker 6: it seems to work.
Speaker 1: Right my reading of this. And of course this has
Speaker 1: everything to do folks with our new distribution of Apple
Speaker 1: car Play, and we're absolutely thrilled with the YouTube live response.
Speaker 1: Look for that Bloomberg podcast. I'll do all that on
Speaker 1: LinkedIn and Twitter and that. But Brian, to me, it's
Speaker 1: almost monopsimistic in that there's going to be a few standing.
Speaker 1: Let me pick on two are Netflix in YouTube the
Speaker 1: few standing in five years.
Speaker 6: No, I think it's much broader than that. I mean
Speaker 6: to be clear, when it comes to video industry, the
Speaker 6: three players you could point to who are with fairly
Speaker 6: certain fair certainty doing it right are Netflix, Amazon and Apple.
Speaker 6: They're all investing billions of dollars against content. They're focused
Speaker 6: on global opportunities. You know, they're basically positioning themselves where
Speaker 6: they can apply scale economics. So they're all in pretty
Speaker 6: good shape. Disney, notwithstanding some setbacks, is relatively better off
Speaker 6: than others. At least they are more focused on the
Speaker 6: global opportunity than others. They're just kind of Disney's a
Speaker 6: little strategically adrift right now. I assume look that they're
Speaker 6: footing once well either Aiger has his team in place,
Speaker 6: because I don't think he does necessarily, or whenever there's
Speaker 6: a successor. But they really do seem to have the
Speaker 6: right bones.
Speaker 4: For lack of a.
Speaker 6: Better word, I think it's the others who are in
Speaker 6: a really really bad place. Cast I should add also,
Speaker 6: because you know they're not going anywhere with NBCU, They'll
Speaker 6: be fine, probably, but I think that they also haven't
Speaker 6: invested as much against the global opportunity outside of Sky
Speaker 6: really covered just a handful of markets for the most part. Anyways,
Speaker 6: I think that because you need to invest in content,
Speaker 6: you need to invest globally, and you need to actually
Speaker 6: believe in your business. Those are the three elements.
Speaker 5: And it's not just Netflix, so Brian, I mean, there's
Speaker 5: a whole host of you know, kind of what i'll
Speaker 5: call traditional media companies, legacy media companies. I just don't
Speaker 5: know what to do. I mean, you know, I've been
Speaker 5: in this business as long as you have. If I
Speaker 5: were an investor, I couldn't put any money to work
Speaker 5: in that space. I don't know what to do with
Speaker 5: the traditional media companies, how do you think they adapt?
Speaker 5: There's just going to be a consolidation wave. What do
Speaker 5: you think is going to happen to you know, all
Speaker 5: these legacy media companies.
Speaker 6: Well, exactly, And I think that everyone's expecting that there
Speaker 6: definitely needs to be again more strategic clarity that would
Speaker 6: that would be helpful, and and a belief that it
Speaker 6: that you know, it's it is about more than just
Speaker 6: consolidation because right now, certainly when it comes to Paramount,
Speaker 6: when it comes to Warner that's certainly where the focus is.
Speaker 6: And I think the expectation is NBCU and in set
Speaker 6: of Concast is in both. But in terms of like
Speaker 6: where the opportunity is, yeah, it's you have to find
Speaker 6: your spots in the right value of the right day.
Speaker 1: Brian, a major major value investor with huge R squared
Speaker 1: success in the industry, emails in worships. Everything you talk about,
Speaker 1: you've just described content, and that describes a train wreck
Speaker 1: known as Warner Brothers Discovery. We've all got our biases here.
Speaker 1: I read variety like everybody else. But what I see
Speaker 1: in a way that the average cost of capital all
Speaker 1: of the recent radio bankruptcy that we saw is a
Speaker 1: ton of debt. At WBD, I got them listed out
Speaker 1: as sixty two point nine percent debt. Can Warner Brothers
Speaker 1: make the divide to successful the reach go over the
Speaker 1: canyon to the nirvana of successful content?
Speaker 4: Again?
Speaker 6: I think their focus, unfortunately, has been away from the
Speaker 6: things that one would need to invest into drive growth
Speaker 6: at the present time.
Speaker 1: Why can't they do that? This is critical? Why can't
Speaker 1: they do what Netflix does? What Apple TV's what is it?
Speaker 1: Constellation's coming out? I got scared at the trailer. Yes,
Speaker 1: but Brian, why can't they do what the others are doing?
Speaker 4: They could?
Speaker 6: I mean, I think anyone could. I think it's just
Speaker 6: a matter against strategic clarity?
Speaker 4: Is the thing?
Speaker 6: Right? Go back to Disney twenty eighteen, right when they
Speaker 6: announced Disney Plus. Go back to everything that Bob Iger
Speaker 6: was talking about then. He was absolutely spot on in
Speaker 6: terms of what they needed to do. Unfortunately, Wall Street
Speaker 6: and possibly even Disney did not understand that the economics
Speaker 6: of this were not going to be favorable. But making
Speaker 6: a bad decision was better than making a worse one.
Speaker 6: They made the bad decision, and it was the right
Speaker 6: one given where the industry was going. So sometimes I
Speaker 6: think the companies just need to get comfortable with the
Speaker 6: idea of it's gonna be not as as good as
Speaker 6: you'd like it to be. You can't go back to
Speaker 6: where it was, but you can make the most of
Speaker 6: the world the way it will be.
Speaker 7: And I think.
Speaker 6: That that's the sort of conviction that certainly investors who
Speaker 6: make multi billion dollar bets when they're able to, usually
Speaker 6: have a lot of conviction. You do want to see
Speaker 6: that from the companies putting their capital to work.
Speaker 5: Hey, Brian, with all your experience in any advertising space,
Speaker 5: particularly at Group M, with the biggest TV advertising buyer
Speaker 5: in the world, talk to us about the TV advertising business.
Speaker 5: I mean, outside of some NFL games, is there any
Speaker 5: reason to think that television advertising business, broadcasting cable can
Speaker 5: ever grow again, because that's critical for these media companies.
Speaker 6: Nope, nope, I mean, and this is the thing, at
Speaker 6: least in the United States television outside of the bumps
Speaker 6: you see from political advertising and from the Olympics, which
Speaker 6: you know, it's individual companies on a short term basis,
Speaker 6: but the long term, transpermanent decline. There's no way around it,
Speaker 6: and that why the biggest opportunities are for Meta and
Speaker 6: Alphabet and Amazon and lots of other players, but television
Speaker 6: no permanent decline.
Speaker 1: Ryan thirty seconds here this week without questions, Sports Illustrated
Speaker 1: at the Kiosk down at the corner of Lexington and
Speaker 1: fifty eighths would have a cover of the Detroit Lions
Speaker 1: winning large. It's over, it's gone our SI and magazines
Speaker 1: and honor of Frank to Ford is it dead?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think magazines in their print form, it's funny.
Speaker 6: The disinvestment of print, the disinvestment of content, the focus
Speaker 6: in the case of SI and the Arena Group unfortunately
Speaker 6: of an original human content is the problem. And yeah, it's.
Speaker 1: Brian Weezer Madison will hugely advantaged. Can't say enough about
Speaker 1: his industry comments. We're gonna get right to it. This
Speaker 1: conversation is so important, joining us from RBC Capital Markets
Speaker 1: just really really exceptional in the acuity of the market
Speaker 1: and looking over what are called the Greek letters and
Speaker 1: the cross moments. That statistical talk is Amy wou Silverman, Amy,
Speaker 1: what's changed in the Greeks with this melt up, particularly
Speaker 1: in magnificent seven, Like what is Skew done for Global
Speaker 1: Wall Street?
Speaker 8: Good morning Tom. You know, it's funny because the market
Speaker 8: is really back to its old ways. The kind of
Speaker 8: things that worked last year are starting to work again,
Speaker 8: But the option sentiment is actually quite different. So, you know,
Speaker 8: even though we have this mag seven megacap tech rally
Speaker 8: again seems familiar, the option sentiment is just not nearly
Speaker 8: as bold up as it was last year when we
Speaker 8: had that Nvidia chase and we had that AI frenzy.
Speaker 8: You know, I'd say it's meant at best in terms
Speaker 8: of the bollishness, but we aren't seeing the bearishness yet.
Speaker 8: So I think it's sort of a tale of both
Speaker 8: headwinds and tailwinds, and the volatility winds.
Speaker 1: Can you can you see if this is cash moving
Speaker 1: into the market, I mean as cash getting out front
Speaker 1: of a move, say from five point one five percent
Speaker 1: yield down to four point eight percent yield.
Speaker 8: You know, it's interesting because I actually think it's a
Speaker 8: function of the fact that cash did move into the market,
Speaker 8: meaning our positioning is far more long now than it
Speaker 8: was at this point last year. Because when you think
Speaker 8: about a lot of that momentum chase up, Tom, it's
Speaker 8: folks who need to jump into the pool, and to
Speaker 8: some degree, everyone's already swimming in the pool, so that
Speaker 8: incremental chase just gets weaker and weaker, which is why
Speaker 8: I don't think we see that call skew that bold
Speaker 8: up sentiment really really high. But you know, again, we
Speaker 8: don't see that downside pick up either. And you know,
Speaker 8: as we know, if tech goes, the market goes, So
Speaker 8: that's what we're wanting.
Speaker 1: Over the weekend, Paul and Amy was Silverman's world. I
Speaker 1: was thunderstruck by the statistical lack of exuberance. I don't
Speaker 1: want to say I've never seen this before, but I
Speaker 1: think I've never seen this right exactly.
Speaker 5: I know so Amy, I mean, you know, we kind
Speaker 5: of started first of all, I mean that novembery December
Speaker 5: last year to write home about. I'm not really sure
Speaker 5: what drove that, but we started the year kind of
Speaker 5: I kind of thought, you know, the market was soft
Speaker 5: the first week or so of the year. I said, Okay,
Speaker 5: we're going to give back some of the games we
Speaker 5: had at the end of the year, but it's kind
Speaker 5: of solidified here. How do you feel about this market? Here,
Speaker 5: can you work higher? What are the signs that you're
Speaker 5: looking at?
Speaker 8: Yeah, so we are watching these signs really closely. One
Speaker 8: of the things that we will be watching for is
Speaker 8: if we continue to see a shift in option dynamics.
Speaker 8: So we kind of call this spot up wall up.
Speaker 8: But essentially what we mean is, as the market moves higher,
Speaker 8: is volatility moving higher or is it moving lower. Historically
Speaker 8: it's supposed to move lower. Volatilely supposed to go the
Speaker 8: opposite way, right, but we actually occasionally see volatilely go
Speaker 8: up because people are actually buying calls along the way.
Speaker 8: If that starts to strengthen, if that starts the cycle,
Speaker 8: that means we have another leg up. That's what we
Speaker 8: saw during the Nvidia rally, but it's much weaker this time.
Speaker 8: As I was saying, so, you know, I don't know
Speaker 8: how much steam is left in this, but that's definitely
Speaker 8: the sign puts to watch.
Speaker 5: The expect tech to be the leader in twenty four
Speaker 5: as it was in twenty three. I'm not sure if
Speaker 5: it's a Magnificent seven or in Nvidia, but the expect
Speaker 5: Tech broady defined to continue to be a market leader.
Speaker 8: You know, this is obviously a tough question, but I
Speaker 8: think it comes down to what happens with rates, as
Speaker 8: with everything unfortunately, and you know right now it comes
Speaker 8: down to this debate that we have between those March
Speaker 8: and June tenors. I can tell you the way the
Speaker 8: options market is pricing right now is there is like
Speaker 8: a noticeable tick up on the index level. So when
Speaker 8: you talk about VIX and SMP, that would tell me
Speaker 8: that folks aren't nearly as bold up in general as
Speaker 8: they were last year. And occasionally, you know, that can
Speaker 8: be wrong, but it tends to be a good indicator
Speaker 8: of just the fears in the market, and we do
Speaker 8: see that tick up so amy.
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, Tom keeps us on our toes
Speaker 5: here in looking at the vics, looking at volatility here,
Speaker 5: and again of vix it twelve point five. I'm not
Speaker 5: sure what that tells me here.
Speaker 8: It's really tough, and it's given us derivatives folks a
Speaker 8: little bit of existential dread, you know, because a lot
Speaker 8: of this, a lot of those has to do with
Speaker 8: the rise of zero dat to x pre trading. I
Speaker 8: do think there are these structural concerns right now where
Speaker 8: you can't really just use VIX alone anymore because it's
Speaker 8: giving you a thirty day weighted outlook of imply volatility.
Speaker 8: But half the trading is done on options that expire
Speaker 8: within one day. You know, to some degree our toolbox
Speaker 8: has to move to get in line with how the
Speaker 8: market's been moving.
Speaker 1: What do you say to fear of missing out? I mean, mathematically,
Speaker 1: how do you describe fear missing out? Other than ong
Speaker 1: it's two pm, Europe's going to rock tomorrow morning. I
Speaker 1: got to get on board at the margin. You know.
Speaker 8: For the folks with FOMO, I think the fact that
Speaker 8: you know they've discovered options is a good thing. I'll
Speaker 8: give you one kind of interesting counterexample. Everyone's really everyone's
Speaker 8: really bearish on China, but I can tell you in
Speaker 8: the options market, sentiment has both been going the other way.
Speaker 8: And actually think that's a function of those who say,
Speaker 8: you know, China still appears a bit uninvestable for maybe
Speaker 8: political reasons or structural reasons. But I still got that FOMO.
Speaker 8: So I have some FXI calls on, or I have
Speaker 8: some k Web calls on. I think that's what's happening
Speaker 8: in the options market. These contrarian moves you see are
Speaker 8: the folks who have the FOMO but obviously have a
Speaker 8: more top down approach too, and you get those counter
Speaker 8: indicators in our market.
Speaker 1: Amy one final question here, you're juggling here as we
Speaker 1: try to open the market. It's up up, and we've
Speaker 1: talked about cash and we've talked about the rest of
Speaker 1: it as well. Are the Magnificent seven institutionally under owned?
Speaker 1: Bloomberg has a lot of data on this, and frankly,
Speaker 1: when I look at it, can I actually believe Apple's
Speaker 1: under owned?
Speaker 8: You know, it's tough because the data that we have
Speaker 8: seen in terms of fun flows is that a lot
Speaker 8: has poured into it. That's not a case that it
Speaker 8: couldn't continue to go higher. You know, AI is one
Speaker 8: of those where you could argue it's a secular theme
Speaker 8: that kind of crosses over everything. I do think for
Speaker 8: a lot of folks, though, it comes down to what
Speaker 8: happens with growth and if we don't get it, then
Speaker 8: you know, where do people go back in terms of
Speaker 8: like to safety. They go back to these very high quality,
Speaker 8: great cash flow, you know, high net income, tight companies
Speaker 8: with good balance sheets. And I do think you have
Speaker 8: this kind of us exceptionalism that has been the narrative
Speaker 8: for a long time, and it still seems like folks
Speaker 8: keep going back to it, even though you know, the
Speaker 8: merging markets and other parts looking incredibly inexpensive.
Speaker 1: Amy with Silverman, thank you for waiting for the Speaker
Speaker 1: of the House, Former Speaker of the House. She's more
Speaker 1: important than Kevin mccashu. I mean with Silverman, with RBC
Speaker 1: Capital Market, when are you going far away? There was
Speaker 1: a point where our stars each had a certain character.
Speaker 1: It was manufactured by a marketing combat. I don't think
Speaker 1: you ever had Taylor Swift screaming at him. I know
Speaker 1: up in Washington Stadium joining us now a piece of
Speaker 1: meat out of New Jersey that did better than good
Speaker 1: at Notre Dame and went on to a story career
Speaker 1: in American sport. Joseph Heisman joins us his book How
Speaker 1: to Be a Champion every Day. Just read it for
Speaker 1: Ronnie Lott. I'll leave it there. It's a great, great
Speaker 1: but jose Eisman, welcome to Bloomberg Surveillance.
Speaker 4: Thanks tob I've ever been referred to as a piece
Speaker 4: of meat from New Jersey. No, but this is I
Speaker 4: got to tell you. You know, here here in Bloomberg,
Speaker 4: you never know what you're going to hear, and sometimes
Speaker 4: you hear it for the first time. What's great about this, Joe?
Speaker 1: I am?
Speaker 4: You're right? You know, a skinny little piece of meat
Speaker 4: from New Jersey.
Speaker 5: What was me?
Speaker 1: I had a terrible life in New Jersey. I somehow
Speaker 1: walked on the field at Notre Dame. Boloney, you were
Speaker 1: coveted at Notre Dame because you owned everything in southern
Speaker 1: New Jersey when you walked down the field at Notre
Speaker 1: Dame your sophomore year. I remember when Brady walked on
Speaker 1: the field at Michigan. What was it like at the
Speaker 1: end of that song sophomore season when you have to say,
Speaker 1: I'm Joe thisman?
Speaker 4: You know, it's really funny. I wound up getting into
Speaker 4: the game just like Tom did. I mean, you know,
Speaker 4: Drew got hurt. Tom wound up going in Terry handright,
Speaker 4: he got hurt. I wound up going in for the
Speaker 4: last three games. And when I finished off my sophomore year,
Speaker 4: I felt I felt like, you know, I'm validated. I
Speaker 4: belong And that's been a thing for me all my life.
Speaker 4: Is when I was in high school, I was always
Speaker 4: a skinny little kid. Heck, I graduated from college one
Speaker 4: hundred and seventy five pounds, never played heavier in the
Speaker 4: National Football League than one eighty five for fifteen years
Speaker 4: of professional football. So it's always been that little guy
Speaker 4: who couldn't do it, and it's always been a motivator
Speaker 4: for me. But when I stepped out on the football field,
Speaker 4: I think you have to believe in yourself. Hey, if
Speaker 4: you don't believe in who you are, who's believing you?
Speaker 1: For those of you who on Carter Bottle Blant, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean you and Carr playing. You know you don't
Speaker 1: see this on radio on YouTube. You can tell Joe
Speaker 1: Thaisman there's none of this o zempic garbage.
Speaker 4: He's just cutting shizzled.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's fifty nine years old and he's cutting
Speaker 1: shizzled Paul.
Speaker 5: Hey, Joe, Yeah, Tom has no respect for us New
Speaker 5: Jersey people. I'm from Trenton and he's all over me
Speaker 5: all the time. But South River High School that's near
Speaker 5: East Brunswick, New Jersey, for the folks listening a great
Speaker 5: part of the state. Hey, Joe, talk to us about
Speaker 5: before we get to like the pros and the Super
Speaker 5: Bowl and stuff. In college, it's not the same college game.
Speaker 5: When you were at Notre Dame, there's all this name,
Speaker 5: image likeness. The kids are making money these days, how
Speaker 5: do you think that's And there's a transfer portal and everything.
Speaker 5: It's a completely different game than when you're at Notre Dame.
Speaker 4: It's professional football. Yep, on a minor scale. I mean,
Speaker 4: they opened Pandora's box with this thing and made an
Speaker 4: absolute mess of college football. Now you know, the athletes
Speaker 4: are being paid, some of them being paid a lot
Speaker 4: of money, and they wind up sitting. What I think
Speaker 4: it's really doing, it's destroying the infrastructure of competition. You
Speaker 4: go someplace and you compete for a job, well, not
Speaker 4: in college anymore. You go someplace, you don't like it,
Speaker 4: you think you're really good, You're just going to go
Speaker 4: someplace else. Before this, though, parents used to dictate to
Speaker 4: colleges whether their son and or daughter was going to
Speaker 4: go there based upon who else they would sign.
Speaker 7: Yep.
Speaker 4: Now it's a question of dollars. Now now the universities
Speaker 4: are writing checks and it's it's really destroyed what we
Speaker 4: believe college football was. Hey, I'm all for progress. I
Speaker 4: understand this. I'm not a dinosaur. That's sister and says, well,
Speaker 4: it should be this way, it should be that way.
Speaker 4: I'm willing to accept whatever's out there. But what they're
Speaker 4: doing right now is basically destroyed college football. How would
Speaker 4: you like to be a coach today trying to recruit something?
Speaker 5: I can't imagine. I don't know how they do it.
Speaker 4: I mean I can't either.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't know how the I mean, you recruiter kid,
Speaker 5: you coach them up, and then here she leaves. Not
Speaker 5: that they don't have the prerogative to leave, but boy,
Speaker 5: that makes it difficult, all right, Joe, So let's get
Speaker 5: to the to the big boys, the professionals share. We've
Speaker 5: got four solid teams here getting ready to try to
Speaker 5: get to this super Bowl.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 5: I tell you what it's. It's a quarterback driven league,
Speaker 5: as you well know better than anybody. We got some
Speaker 5: good quarterbacks here.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, and all four of them have a story.
Speaker 4: But I'm going to start with my favorite in this
Speaker 4: particular competition, the Detroit Yeah. Somebody smile there. I know
Speaker 4: that what they've been able to do. I mean, you're
Speaker 4: not talking about a football team in Detroit, You're talking
Speaker 4: about a city. You're talking about a group of people
Speaker 4: that have been so frustrated for so long. Fans Now
Speaker 4: all of a sudden they get to celebrate. The difference
Speaker 4: is they're not going to be at home, They're going
Speaker 4: to be on the road. Then you got Brock Perdy,
Speaker 4: you got three number one picks, and then you got Brock.
Speaker 4: You got mister irrelevant and all the number ones. And
Speaker 4: yet he's playing at a higher level than all of
Speaker 4: them when you look at statistics. So he's fighting Patrick.
Speaker 4: To me, Patrick is just phenomenal and Lamar, you are
Speaker 4: going to have a heck of a shootout. This is great.
Speaker 1: We interrupt this program to bring in Michael Barr of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business of Sports, not an acquaintance with Honolulu Blue,
Speaker 1: mister Bard and mister thy See.
Speaker 7: You know with Tom and Paul and Lisa, they have class.
Speaker 7: But you know me, I'm like that dog that's happy
Speaker 7: to see you when you get in. What it is, man,
Speaker 7: how are you, Michael?
Speaker 4: It's it's it's exciting. I mean we used to I
Speaker 4: never lost to the Detroit Lions. Just so you know
Speaker 4: when we played all the years, we just had this
Speaker 4: run in Detroit would get so close and I was
Speaker 4: fortunate enough to go into the College Football Hall of
Speaker 4: Fame with Barry Sanders, whom I respect for that it's
Speaker 4: great that that statue is there to honor him and
Speaker 4: what his accomplishments were. But I think he just got
Speaker 4: frustrated and entire to mean sooner or later you just
Speaker 4: get tired of losing. We're facing it now here in Washington.
Speaker 4: Our fans are frustrated as can be.
Speaker 5: It's been basically well, now you've got a real owner,
Speaker 5: so healthy things are on the up move there. Hey,
Speaker 5: Joe Chiefs, Ravens, I mean, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Does
Speaker 5: it get any better than that?
Speaker 1: Who?
Speaker 5: Who would you pick between those two?
Speaker 4: You know, well, Baltimore is favored by three, which basically
Speaker 4: means if the home team is favored by three, it's
Speaker 4: a pick them, and so they give the home team
Speaker 4: three points if it's that close. And it is that close,
Speaker 4: you know, Patrick to me is one of the most
Speaker 4: the most entertaining quarterback in football and six consecutive AFC
Speaker 4: champions games with Andy. That's all you need to know.
Speaker 4: And you can't talk about Patrick Mahomes unless you talk
Speaker 4: about Andy Reid in the same breath. To be honest
Speaker 4: with you, and Lamar Jackson. Is Lamar has a unique
Speaker 4: throwing style. Lamar is a unique athlete and now he's
Speaker 4: developed into one heck of a quarterback. And because of
Speaker 4: the uniqueness of his throwing style, everybody doesn't look at
Speaker 4: him as a classic quarterback. Well he is, and he's
Speaker 4: a darn goodwin. And he's going to be the MVP
Speaker 4: of the league. By the way, too. Michael Barr jumped
Speaker 4: in here.
Speaker 7: Well, let me ask one more question this. I am
Speaker 7: being serious about this. Whole past season. There have been
Speaker 7: let's just call it, a lot of blown calls by
Speaker 7: the referees. What in the world can we do about
Speaker 7: this to fix it?
Speaker 4: I think one thing we can do and Bill Belichick
Speaker 4: has pounded the table on this forever. We should be
Speaker 4: able as coaches. If you're a coach, you still only
Speaker 4: have two challenges, but you can challenge every play. Right now,
Speaker 4: there's a menu of things you can and cannot challenge.
Speaker 4: I think there are the menu you out, start over
Speaker 4: and do exactly what you need to do. Allow the
Speaker 4: opportunity to correct the egregious errors that we've seen, and
Speaker 4: they've been obvious. It's like guys getting tackled going down
Speaker 4: the field, no flag, Guys jumping off sides, no flag.
Speaker 4: But I really think that if you allowed, I don't
Speaker 4: want to give the coaches anymore. I'm not going to
Speaker 4: stow a game down. I'm not going to stop the game,
Speaker 4: but I am going to give them the opportunity to
Speaker 4: challenge plays when and if they want to, any play
Speaker 4: that's out there. I think that's a great place to start.
Speaker 1: Yeah, joth Eisman, this is for all of the parents
Speaker 1: that listen to us. They're worried about economics, finance, and investment,
Speaker 1: but they got kids at home how to be a
Speaker 1: champion every day. Tell the parents listening, tell them what
Speaker 1: they do in the jockocracy of America and every sport
Speaker 1: where kids are playing twenty four to seven and they're
Speaker 1: not going to make the big time of Notre Dame
Speaker 1: in the Washington Redskins. Speak on the chuckocracy that we
Speaker 1: have in America.
Speaker 4: I think, first of all, athletics is such an essential
Speaker 4: part of the growth of young people. I wrote the
Speaker 4: book basically based on the fact that the world of sports,
Speaker 4: the world of business, and our own lives all parallel
Speaker 4: one another. I know the foundation of what I became
Speaker 4: as a person started with my Pop Warner football coaches
Speaker 4: to be able to understand how to rely on somebody else.
Speaker 4: There's the obviously the nutritional part of it because you
Speaker 4: have to watch your weight or you have to take
Speaker 4: care of yourself. Then there's the mental side of it
Speaker 4: because you have to learn the plays. Then you have
Speaker 4: to rely on that person next to you. That's called teamwork.
Speaker 4: You set out for a goal, that's goals that you
Speaker 4: want to accomplish. The coaches will teach them the right
Speaker 4: kind of attitude to be able to care about one
Speaker 4: another and also care about the opponent. And we've made
Speaker 4: great strides in youth athletics as far as protection goes.
Speaker 4: I see one state in particulars trying to outlaw tackle football.
Speaker 4: To me, you learn so much about life being part
Speaker 4: of that team, being part of that group, understanding how
Speaker 4: to deal with defeat as well as victory. I mean,
Speaker 4: there's so many different elements of youth athletics that is
Speaker 4: so important. And sure we have concerns about young people
Speaker 4: getting hurt, and I recommend this to those that are
Speaker 4: involved in soccer and or football, the two that sports,
Speaker 4: and really I think softball is another one that people
Speaker 4: don't talk about is every young person should get a baseline.
Speaker 4: When you start playing football and they start playing tackle,
Speaker 4: folk do a baseline to make sure that there isn't
Speaker 4: some type of susceptibility to injury, to head injuries. So
Speaker 4: at least give him a foundation to work for. If
Speaker 4: something does happen, you go look at it, hey.
Speaker 5: Joe, before we let you go. We're all getting geared
Speaker 5: up for this big playoff weekend. But it's also the
Speaker 5: time of year where coaches are flying around all over
Speaker 5: the place and this year, boy Bill Belichick, where would
Speaker 5: the all time great coach? Where do you think he's
Speaker 5: gonna end up?
Speaker 4: I don't know anything. People will say I do, but
Speaker 4: I don't think. I think Arthur Blank wants him in Atlanta.
Speaker 4: I think Bill Bill's going to look at this football
Speaker 4: team and say, what do I have? I think it's
Speaker 4: a pretty good defense. It's got the biggest wide receiving
Speaker 4: core in football. All those guys are gigantic, and now
Speaker 4: can the quarterback play? Because that's what he didn't have
Speaker 4: in New England. Would still be in New England if
Speaker 4: his quarterback had a chance to play decent football. So
Speaker 4: poor Mac Mac looks scared. Yep. He literally looked scaled,
Speaker 4: half scared half the time. But you know, if I'm
Speaker 4: guessing to me, I think Bill's going to go to Atlanta.
Speaker 1: Here, yes, Joeizen, we've got thirty seconds of obviously your
Speaker 1: super Bowl pick, please, sir.
Speaker 4: I like the I like San Francisco and the Ravens
Speaker 4: to be in the Super Bowl. And I think Lamar
Speaker 4: Jackson is an MVP, and I think he'll carry the
Speaker 4: Baltimore Ravens to a jack.
Speaker 1: You didn't say the Lions. Next time, it's shortness down.
Speaker 1: Just just truncate this down.
Speaker 4: You know what the Lions were at home, I might
Speaker 4: think differently.
Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you so much. This is a Bloomberg
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