1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 3 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: today's best minds, and the state of Louisiana legally requires 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: the Ten Commandments to be displayed in classrooms. We have 5 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: such a great show for you today. Congressman Jared Hoffman 6 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:24,639 Speaker 1: stops by to talk about the preemptive steps he and 7 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: his committee are taking to try to stop Trump from 8 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: having executive power and instituting Project twenty twenty five if 9 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 1: he is re elected. Then we'll talk to the Opium 10 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: Chronicles Simon Rosenberg about what he's seeing in the twenty 11 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: twenty four election. But first we have the host of 12 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 1: the Think Like an Economist podcast, University of Michigan, Professor 13 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: Justin Wolfers. Welcome back to Fast Politics. One of my 14 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: favorite personal favorite guests, despite the fact that he's having 15 00:00:58,120 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: a much better time than the rest of us. 16 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: Justin Wolfers, Molly, being one of your favorite economists is 17 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: do you have a second favorite? 18 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 1: I mean, I love Krugman. We've had him on He's 19 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:18,199 Speaker 1: no terrific. Yeah, you're right, walk Krugman. He's my guy. 20 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 1: But I think we should have a Bollman here of 21 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: victory lap because you were right. You were cautiously optimistic 22 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 1: about this economy, and you turned out to be right. 23 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 2: Do you want to spend fifteen minutes on there? So 24 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 2: forty five? 25 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: That's right. 26 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 2: Look the US economy, it's been just a relentlessly boring story, 27 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 2: which is the economy keeps growing, wages are growing, they're 28 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:51,919 Speaker 2: ahead of prices, inequality keeps falling, unemployments near a fifty 29 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 2: year low. It's just so dull. This is what economists want. 30 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: John Maynard Kines famously said he wanted economists to be 31 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 2: is boring as dentists. If you look at the economy 32 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 2: out there, it is wonderfully, splendidly boring. Different families have 33 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 2: different stories. Lots of people are struggling with the cost 34 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 2: of living, but lots of people are finding work, lots 35 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 2: of people are finding new jobs, lots of people are 36 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 2: starting new businesses, lots of people are getting pay rises, 37 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 2: and overall all across the income distribution, people are keeping 38 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 2: up and in fact doing better than keeping up. They're 39 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 2: getting ahead. And this little engine that could, the US 40 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 2: economy is doing things that most economists thought it would 41 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 2: never be able to do. So Look, it's not my 42 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 2: victory lap, it's Joe Biden's and most importantly, it's the 43 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 2: American people's. 44 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: Infleetion is why an economy that looks good feels bad. 45 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: Explain to us a little bit about that. 46 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 2: Look, there's different ways of thinking about it. Let me 47 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 2: start with why it feels bad, and then let me 48 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 2: do that horrible thing that you're not allowed to do 49 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 2: and explain why it shouldn't. So why does it feel bad? 50 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 2: You go to the grocery store and you see the 51 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 2: high prices and they're shocking, and it leads you to 52 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,639 Speaker 2: do something like call it a cost of living crisis. 53 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 2: And if prices over the past few years have gone 54 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 2: up by ten percent, you think yourselful if they hadn't 55 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 2: gone up by ten percent able to buy ten percent 56 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 2: more stuff. So it feels like inflation stole from you, 57 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 2: just took away your purchasing power. Now, that's not actually 58 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:29,839 Speaker 2: how economies work. If we hadn't had that, and here's look, 59 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 2: let me try and get to the core of the issue. Mollie. 60 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 2: What I want to do is close your eyes right 61 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 2: now and your listeners to unless they're driving, and imagine 62 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 2: you fall asleep for ten years like sleeping beauty, and 63 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 2: you wake up and everything in the world has an 64 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 2: extra zero on it. Right, So the dollar store is 65 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 2: now the ten dollar store. The ten dollar bill in 66 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 2: your wallet is now one hundred dollar bill. The one 67 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 2: thousand dollars in savings you had is now ten thousand dollars. 68 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 2: An apple isn't a dollar, it's ten dollars. An orange 69 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 2: isn't a dollar, it's ten dollars. And so on. Your 70 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 2: wages went up tenfold, everything's gone up tenfold. What different 71 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 2: choices would you make? How different is that world? And 72 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 2: the answer is it's exactly the same as before you 73 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 2: went asleep. There's just more zeros in it. Right, The 74 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 2: number of hours you have to work to afford an 75 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 2: apple hasn't changed, Right, Your wage is ten times high. 76 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 2: It shows the price of the apple. So how hard 77 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 2: you work, what you'll buy, and what your quality of 78 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 2: life is would be exactly the same. Just that world 79 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 2: would have extra zeros on the end of it. And 80 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: so what we see there is that if all prices 81 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 2: and all wages go up at the same time, nothing changes. 82 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 2: And so that's an example of one hundred, sorry, one 83 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 2: thousand percent inflation and no one's any worse off, and 84 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 2: so if you want to get fancy, this is what 85 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 2: economists call neutrality. If everything goes up at the same time, 86 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 2: it's neutral. Nothing changes, the inflation doesn't matter at all. 87 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: That's sort of what's happened in this country. 88 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 2: It's kind of mostly what happened. If I try and 89 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 2: look someone in the I that's exactly what happened, and 90 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 2: they'll say not exactly, and I have to agree with them. 91 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 2: But it's actually most of the story, which is, you know, 92 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 2: since the pandemic, wages are roughly up twenty percent, prices 93 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 2: are roughly up twenty percent, Housing prices are roughly up 94 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 2: twenty percent, the price of apples are roughly up twenty percent, 95 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 2: and so on. It just doesn't feel that way. 96 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: We have been living in a country where money has been. 97 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 2: Cheap or free. Yeah, that's such a funny expression. Money 98 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 2: never feels cheap to me, but. 99 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 1: With low interest rates, it means that money has been 100 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 1: very cheap. 101 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 2: Right, so it's been easy to borrow, to get a 102 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 2: mortgage and so on. But I really want to focus 103 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 2: on inflation. An earlier generation, my parents lived through much 104 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 2: of their lives with inflation in the United States bumping 105 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 2: around five, ten percent, fifteen percent, up and down and 106 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 2: up and down, and they understood the deal. The deal 107 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 2: was when prices rise, eventually your wages will rise and 108 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 2: it will catch up, and it'll be a little bit 109 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 2: like that dream I just described to you. So they 110 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 2: didn't freak out. They just were used to it. They 111 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 2: knew that when inflation happened, everything would eventually sort itself 112 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 2: out and you'll basically be made whole. And then what 113 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,919 Speaker 2: happened was we had thirty, maybe even forty years of 114 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 2: basically no inflation. We had inflation at basically two percent, 115 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,280 Speaker 2: which is so low you barely notice it. And so 116 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 2: for anyone my age, I'm fifty one or less, they're 117 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 2: not used to the deal that when inflation rises, everything 118 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 2: will sort itself out and you won't actually get ripped off. 119 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 2: And so they feel ripped off. 120 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: And I hear you. 121 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 2: I know that you feel ripped off, But I also 122 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 2: know enough from studying the US economy and economies all 123 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 2: around the world, you're not going to be ripped off. 124 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 2: And in fact, it's pretty clear that by election day, 125 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 2: and actually probably by today, almost across the entire income distribution, 126 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 2: everyone's wages higher than they were before this inflationary burst. 127 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 2: Once they've risen by more than prices have, things have 128 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,239 Speaker 2: mostly but not entirely sorted themselves. 129 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: Out right. Talk us through how Trump is going to 130 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: fix inflation. Ha ha. 131 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 2: Well, the first thing he's going to do, he said, 132 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 2: is shift from an income tax to tariffs. Tariffs sound 133 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: like a really good idea. It sounds like that's a 134 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 2: tax on China, boy, and you know, added a little 135 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 2: xenophobia and stir, but actually a tariff is a tax 136 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 2: on a good that an American buys. And just because 137 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,239 Speaker 2: I'm a Chinese manufacturer, if I could sell my goods 138 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 2: to Europe or the US, I'm not going to sell 139 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 2: him any cheaper to the US. That means, if you 140 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 2: make me pay a ten percent tax, I'm going to 141 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 2: pass that along. And in fact, there were very careful 142 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 2: studies of the first Trump tariffs on washing machines and 143 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 2: things like that, and basically every extra dollar in tariffs 144 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 2: were passed along as a dollar higher prices. And so 145 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 2: when we moved to tariffs, that's basically saying he's going 146 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 2: to burst sales taxes on anything you buy from abroad. 147 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 2: Have a look at the label on the T shirt 148 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 2: you're wearing right now. I guarantee you it's not made 149 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 2: in the US, and so it's going to cause an 150 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 2: enormous inflationary burst right there. Secondly, he wants to undermine 151 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 2: the independence of the FED. This is the sort of 152 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 2: wonky stuff that no one cares about, but is the 153 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 2: first step to becoming Argentina. And your listeners might say, 154 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 2: what's Argentina famous for. It's famous for great football, terrific beef, 155 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 2: and the fact that one hundred years ago it was 156 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 2: one of the richest countries in the world, and then 157 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 2: its political leadership took every opportunity it could to fuck 158 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 2: it up. And one of the ways it does that 159 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 2: is by letting loose on inflation and creating a crisis. 160 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 2: And one of the ways it does that is it 161 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 2: allows politically expedient moves in important macro stuff. And so 162 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 2: one of the things we do in the US is 163 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 2: we give the FED J. Powell and his crew, We 164 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 2: tell them go and solve inflation. We'll leave you alone 165 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 2: to do it and don't hussle you around election time. 166 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 2: And that's how, partly how we've avoided being Argentina. Now Trump, 167 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 2: of course, thinks that's terrible. What he wants to do 168 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,559 Speaker 2: is centralized power in the Oval office. He wants the 169 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 2: FED to be calling him to say what should we 170 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 2: do about inflation. The thing that he will want to do, 171 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 2: before any election or any moment is try and goose 172 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 2: the economy so he looks good, and that would cause 173 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 2: an inflationary burst, and that is the first step towards 174 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 2: the path of becoming Argentina. I don't know where that 175 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 2: process starts. I don't know where it ends, but I 176 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 2: do know it's a game I don't want to play. 177 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 2: The US has had tremendous economic success because we have 178 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 2: politically stable economic institutions. We have nerds whose job is 179 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 2: to be nerds and not worry about politics, and that 180 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 2: has protected us from the sort of madness you see 181 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 2: in other populist countries. Think about Turkey, think about Argentina, 182 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 2: and then look at our quality of life, and you 183 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,559 Speaker 2: realize that being protected from populism has been marvelous for US. 184 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know. Wow, you made Trump sound worse, 185 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 1: but you did. I don't think I had completely saw 186 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: through the consequences of that. Why do you think rich 187 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: people like I mean, some of these people are ideologically 188 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: just have brain worms. But why do you think that 189 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: Republicans are still thought of by many voters as better 190 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:21,959 Speaker 1: on the economy. 191 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,199 Speaker 2: This has been a puzzle my whole life. So let 192 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:28,320 Speaker 2: me just sort of lay out a few facts. It 193 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 2: used to be that we thought of Republicans as fiscally conservative, 194 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 2: that they take care of the budget, and this basically 195 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 2: hasn't been true in my entire adult life. Reagan famously 196 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 2: busted the budget more than anyone. Clinton then reined it in. 197 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 2: Bush busted the budget, Obama did what he could. You saw, 198 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 2: Trump busted the budget. We haven't had a fiscally conservative 199 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,559 Speaker 2: Republican in forty or fifty years. So it used to 200 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 2: be that was a core tenant of conservatives that what 201 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 2: they wanted to do was balance it's the budget that 202 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 2: they wanted to make sure that the government was not 203 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 2: going to create any fiscal risks, and it's simply something 204 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 2: that they gave up. They gave up. There was a 205 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 2: very clear political theory, which is it was behind what 206 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,199 Speaker 2: Reagan did, which is, if we spend all the money, 207 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 2: there'll be less money left for Democrats to spend. If 208 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:16,959 Speaker 2: we have the big party. They have to clean up, 209 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 2: and Democrats have played along because if they don't clean up, 210 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 2: then we're really in a mess. So the idea that 211 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 2: Republicans were fiscally conservative, it's an idea that persists. People 212 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 2: still say I vote Republican because I want to balance 213 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 2: the budget. It's simply not been something that they've done 214 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 2: in decades and decades. Then there's this broad a question. 215 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 2: You know, people say I trust Republicans on the economy. Well, really, 216 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 2: if you look at the statistics on this, almost every 217 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 2: Republican administration has ended in recession. But happened under Bush, 218 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 2: it obviously happened under Trump, It's happened all the way back. 219 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 2: And if you look at the statistics, in fact, the 220 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 2: economy does slightly somewhat better, quite a bit better actually 221 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 2: under Democrats and under Republicans. Now, I actually don't want 222 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 2: to trumpet that too much. I know that will disappoint you. 223 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 2: We only change leaders every four years, so we have 224 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 2: a very small sample. But what is absolutely clears there's 225 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 2: absolutely no evidence, none, that the economy is better under 226 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 2: Republicans than under Democrats. Because if anything appears to in 227 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 2: US history be the opposite. So why is it people 228 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,439 Speaker 2: think this is good for the economy. I'm puzzled there, 229 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 2: Molly just puzzled. 230 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's just sort of baffling. And we're 231 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:33,080 Speaker 1: thinking about So now, one of the inflationary aspects that 232 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 1: Biden really can't control, and probably the one that is 233 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 1: the most stubborn, is the FED. Talk to us about 234 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: what the FED is doing here with interest rates and 235 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: if they're going to have a rate cup before the election. 236 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 2: So the first thing that's important about what you said 237 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 2: is you said that Biden can't do anything about the FED. 238 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 2: That's because he's a grown up and Trump would be 239 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 2: railing against it. Trump at this point was railing against it. 240 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 2: This is a fact that happened through twenty nineteen, screaming 241 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 2: at the FED that despite inflation starting to show up, 242 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 2: he's screaming at them to do nothing about it. That's 243 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 2: an historical fact that happened. Economics nerds like me will 244 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 2: tell you that's very, very bad because all politicians scream 245 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 2: at the FED. And if that happened and the Fed responded, 246 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 2: then the Fed would never do anything to keep inflation down, 247 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 2: and inflation would run away. And so the responsible thing 248 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 2: to do is to tell the FED go away and 249 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 2: do your job, and I'm going to leave you alone. 250 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 2: And that's what Biden is choosing to do. So I 251 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 2: think that it's an investment in the future of our 252 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 2: economy at the cost of his political There's some small 253 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 2: political cost that he's paying now, but he's willing to 254 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 2: make that choice and I respect him for it. Now, 255 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 2: what the FED is trying to do is, you know, 256 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 2: inflation's down from rates as high as nine percent there 257 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 2: was an inflation crisis, down to roughly three percent right now. 258 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 2: The FED wants it down to two. And so this 259 00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 2: is the last mile problem, which is we've got it 260 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 2: from high down to almost normal. Now for most people 261 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 2: the difference between normal and almost normal is not much 262 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 2: and it doesn't really affect our lives very much. We 263 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 2: have the memory of a bad inflation through twenty twenty 264 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 2: two and twenty three, but for most of twenty four 265 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 2: inflation's really been pretty normal. But the FED wants it 266 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 2: from almost normal all the way down to normal. That's 267 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 2: what it's worried about. That we're not quite there. It 268 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 2: does look like it's on its way there. We had 269 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 2: literally no inflation last month, none and so it's keeping 270 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 2: interest rates high enough for long enough that it can 271 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 2: be confident that it will get it all the way down. 272 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: And partly it's felt okay doing that because the economy, 273 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 2: the real economy, people getting jobs, people making stuff, has 274 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 2: been so strong. So it's managed to this is the 275 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 2: so called soft landing. It's managed to get inflation down 276 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 2: without creating a recession. And so because it appears not 277 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 2: to have inflicted that much pain, it's willing to do 278 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 2: a little more right now. 279 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: So interesting, Thank you so much, justin I hope you'll 280 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 1: come back when you're back in Michigan. 281 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, mis week, it's fun. Australia's fun. You should all 282 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 2: come and visit. 283 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: Spring us here. And I bet you are trying to 284 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: look fashionable, So why not pick up some fashionable all 285 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: new Fast Politics merchandise. We just opened a news store 286 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: with all new designs just for you. Get t shirts, hoodies, hats, 287 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: and top bags. To grab some head to fastpolitics dot com. 288 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: Congressman Jared Huffman represents California's second district. Welcome to Fast Politics, Congressmen. 289 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 2: Great to be with you, Mollie, So. 290 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: Excited to have you. You know, I would love you to like, 291 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: give us a little backstory on how you got involved 292 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: in this. You've been in Congress for a while. Give 293 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 1: us a sort of introduction to how you got here 294 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: and what you sort of your passions in Congress are, 295 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: et cetera. 296 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 2: Absolutely well. 297 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 3: Look, I came to Congress twelve years ago mainly to 298 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 3: do environmental work. I'm a former our metal lawyer at 299 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 3: the NRDC, did that work for six years in the 300 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 3: state legislature. I find myself now kind of on the 301 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 3: front lines of trying to hang onto our democracy against 302 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 3: this terrible MAGA threat and Christian nationalism and all these 303 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 3: other awful things that I couldn't have foreseen when I 304 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 3: first ran for Congress. But that's the fight that I'm in, 305 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 3: and I'm trying to do my part. I had a 306 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 3: briefing maybe two months ago as part of the Progressive 307 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 3: Caucus on Project twenty twenty five. Thought I knew generally 308 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 3: what it was, but I have to say I was 309 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 3: seriously alarmed after that briefing, after understanding the groups behind it, 310 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 3: the explicitness of the extremism, the sweeping nature of this 311 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 3: authoritarian blueprint for what the Republicans will do, not what 312 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 3: they sort of fantasize about doing, but what they absolutely 313 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 3: will do if they take power in this election, and 314 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 3: I concluded that Democrats need to step up and do 315 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 3: much more to spotlight it and fight against it while 316 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 3: we still have time. 317 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: One of the sort of key jug or not a 318 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: project twenty twenty five is the same thing as this 319 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: Supreme Court right is to dismantle the administrative state, to 320 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: get environmentalists out of the EPA, to strip science from government. 321 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 1: It's a larger gestault, and it really is, I think 322 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 1: one of the few things they believe in at this 323 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 1: point in the Republican Party. Can you say more about that? 324 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, if you look through the chapters, and you know, 325 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 3: nobody's going to have time to wade through nine hundred 326 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:29,679 Speaker 3: and twenty pages of by designing manifesto, but you know 327 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 3: our task force and you and others will help to 328 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 3: distill this for people. But if you look through it, 329 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 3: every aspect of government is sort of consolidated into executive power. 330 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 3: And what do they want to do with that? Well, 331 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 3: in almost every single agency, it's about weaponizing it to 332 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:51,360 Speaker 3: advance this authoritarian right wing agenda, including going after their 333 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:55,360 Speaker 3: political opponents. So even even some of the seemingly innocuous 334 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,640 Speaker 3: parts of Project twenty twenty five, like bringing the FCC 335 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 3: under jure presidential power, ending the independence that many of 336 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 3: these agencies have typically had. 337 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 2: What's that about. 338 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 3: Well, it's about President Trump having basically singular power over 339 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 3: which corporate mergers go through and how we control immedia. 340 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: This is like this Russia fantasy air dewan kind of authoritarianism, 341 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,399 Speaker 1: the idea that you know, you pick the winners and 342 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: the losers. Right. 343 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 3: Absolutely, this unitary executive theory is all about that, and 344 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 3: it's all over Project twenty twenty five. 345 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 1: Can you say more about unitary executive theory because that 346 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 1: is sort of held up at the heart of the project. 347 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:36,400 Speaker 4: Yeah. 348 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 3: So this is the theory that we've heard espoused, you know, 349 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 3: during the first Trump administration by Bill Barr and others. 350 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 3: It's a theory they've advanced in some of their legal 351 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:50,159 Speaker 3: arguments before the courts, where the president basically can dictate 352 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 3: everything that the executive branch does all of these agencies, 353 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,360 Speaker 3: including the Department of Justice, telling them who to prosecute, 354 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 3: how to handle cases, what the FBI should investigate. If 355 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,159 Speaker 3: we even have an FBI under these guys, it's just 356 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 3: sweeping and you know, kind of terrifying. 357 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: One of the things about this thesis, and I think 358 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 1: it's Project twenty twenty five, but I also think Project 359 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,879 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five just puts on paper, just like Roger 360 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 1: Stone brags about it, the things that the Supreme Court 361 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: is quietly trying to do. And so I'm hoping you 362 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 1: could talk about there is a play towards greater regulation 363 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 1: of women's reproduction. Wow, no regulation of oil and gas, 364 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 1: So make that make sense. 365 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 3: So there's the paradox, right, they want to absolutely control 366 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 3: women in their bodies. They want to tell them, you know, 367 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 3: which babies they have to have and which ones they 368 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,359 Speaker 3: can't have because they're coming after IVF. 369 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 1: When you read that IVF regulation thing, it's just I mean, 370 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: you know, they say, well, it's never been regulating. All 371 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: you care about is ending regulation. But somehow you're going 372 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 1: to do it on IVF anyway, go on. 373 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 3: Sorry, Yeah, and they're going to bring the FDA under 374 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 3: executive control as well, so get ready for that. No, 375 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 3: you're absolutely right. When it comes to corporate America and 376 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 3: business in the fossil fuel industry, the regulatory state's going 377 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 3: to be gutted. There are no regulations that they like 378 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,479 Speaker 3: at all. So it's sort of a libertarian dystopia in 379 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 3: that space. But when it comes to individual liberties and 380 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 3: individual rights, church state separation, LGBTQ, community reproductive choice, the 381 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 3: heavy hand of government is there in a big way. 382 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: Absolutely beyond we are now. One of the things that 383 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: I'm hoping you could explain to us a little bit 384 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 1: about is where you think this sort of came from. 385 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously this comes from Trump to some extent, 386 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: but this clearly has longer tentacles than Trump, and it's 387 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,680 Speaker 1: hard to imagine Trump cooking up anything that is more 388 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: than just sort of the gut instinct. 389 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 3: It's a codependency I think. I mean, Trump likes this 390 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 3: because it favors authoritarianism and the kind of things that 391 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 3: he wants. But the far right conservative movement has been 392 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 3: pishing many of these things for a long time as well. 393 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 3: The Christian nationalist movement wants so many of these things, 394 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 3: the culture war elements, and so I think, you know, 395 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 3: there's a great synergy between our aspiring dictator and these 396 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 3: extremist right wing groups that want this agenda. 397 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: I just said David Wallace Wells just interviewing him, and 398 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 1: we're talking about how in every environmental person I talk to, 399 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: not everyone, but a lot of them, there's a lot 400 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 1: of optimism because even though the temperature is a rising 401 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 1: too fast and we're not where we need to be 402 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,400 Speaker 1: with the Paris Accord, there is a sense in which 403 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: renewables are so cheap that fossil fuels really is becoming 404 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 1: so much closer to coal just price wise, that it 405 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: will really take a lot of government subsidies to keep 406 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 1: oil and gas going. I mean, I think that is 407 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 1: still what Republicans want. I mean, it's such a paradox 408 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 1: here because we have so many businesses like local news 409 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,959 Speaker 1: or even you know, newspapers in general, right, like nonprofit 410 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: newsrooms that would desperately could desperately use these subsidies, and 411 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: instead they're going to oil and gas, they're going to coal, 412 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,160 Speaker 1: They're going to things that kill the planet, and don't 413 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 1: do anything. Talk to us about that. 414 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 3: Well, there's no question that we continue to subsidize the 415 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 3: fossil fuel industry in a big way. I share your 416 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:23,160 Speaker 3: optimism about clean energy eventually winning out on the economics 417 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,360 Speaker 3: if nothing else, but what continues to disturb me is 418 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 3: that we don't have time to wait for the market 419 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 3: to realize all of that. We've got a climate crisis 420 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 3: that is compelling us to speed up. And that's where 421 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 3: Project twenty twenty five in the clean energy and environmental 422 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 3: space isn't necessarily anything new. We've seen this right wing 423 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,800 Speaker 3: agenda for years, but the fact that they're proposing to 424 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 3: run out the clock on another four to eight years 425 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 3: could be the endgame for our ability to confront the 426 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 3: climate crisis. 427 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 1: That is for sure true. The thing that I always 428 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 1: think about is that when the pandemic came, I had 429 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 1: this moment where I thought, Okay, this is it. Science 430 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: is going to win. Americans are going to be like 431 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 1: the people telling us to take horse dewormer. They're wrong 432 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: because it doesn't treat COVID vaccines work like this is 433 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,360 Speaker 1: going to be the moment, and instead none of that happened. 434 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 1: The right just decided that Anthony Fauci needs to go 435 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,400 Speaker 1: to jail. I mean, you have been doing environmental law 436 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,959 Speaker 1: for a long time, so maybe you were less naive 437 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 1: than I was, but I was shocked. 438 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:32,359 Speaker 3: I didn't anticipate the degree of backsliding and ignorance and 439 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 3: self destruction really that we saw in some of that conspiracism. 440 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 3: So it was an eye opener, But it wasn't just 441 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 3: here in the United States. We've seen the same kind 442 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 3: of backlash against science and liberalism in these right wing 443 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 3: movements around Europe and in other parts of the world. 444 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 3: So I think we've got a real reckoning here between 445 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 3: science and our ability to live in community with common 446 00:23:55,600 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 3: sense and this revivalism, in many cases driven and by 447 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 3: extreme right wing Christian nationalism, not just here in the US, 448 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,680 Speaker 3: but in Hungary and other places. We got to choose 449 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 3: which century we want to live in. 450 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 1: So crazy, like when you think about how to get 451 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 1: everybody on the same page, right like right now, we 452 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: have a problem which is some percentage of the country 453 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: and I'm not willing to say it's forty two percent. 454 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,160 Speaker 1: I think it's lower. But some percentage of the country 455 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: of America doesn't share the same reality that we do. 456 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 1: And they think that there's a child pedophile ring. They 457 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,200 Speaker 1: think that climate change is a hoax made up by 458 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 1: the Chinese to sell cars. I mean, they think a 459 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 1: lot of stuff. They think COVID isn't real, they think 460 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:43,160 Speaker 1: the Sandy Hook kids weren't murdered. These are provable facts, right, 461 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 1: that are not true. So in your mind when you 462 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,200 Speaker 1: look at like, you know, part of this is fracturing 463 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 1: of the mainstream media. Part of this is social media. 464 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 1: But what do you think is the thing that the 465 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:59,359 Speaker 1: government can do to sort of try to provide a 466 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,199 Speaker 1: coherent reality of things that are true. 467 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 3: I'm not sure the government can do it. I think 468 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 3: all of us have a role to play. I mean, 469 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,640 Speaker 3: you mentioned the fracturing of the media, and I think 470 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 3: that's just a huge part of this. I think our 471 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 3: information ecosystem has just changed. We haven't quite figured out 472 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 3: what to do with this plethora of junk that's out 473 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 3: there and malicious stuff where people are monetizing conflict and 474 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 3: ignorance and disinformation, and it's big business. So we've got 475 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 3: a lot of work to do there. There's pieces of 476 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 3: it that I think we can do through public policy. 477 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,439 Speaker 3: But I'll tell you one part of Project twenty twenty 478 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 3: five that is taking us in the wrong direction of this. 479 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 3: To bring it back to that, they're going to get 480 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 3: the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. 481 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,159 Speaker 4: You know, one of the few places. 482 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 3: Where you can yeah, where you can get trusted you know, 483 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 3: good deep politicized information is PBS, and they don't like it. 484 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 1: One of the things that it seems to me, could 485 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 1: be a solve Section two thirty. 486 00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 3: There's actually still some space for bipartieship when it comes 487 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 3: to Section two thirty and some of this corporate accountability 488 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 3: in the media space. I don't trust these folks at 489 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 3: the Heritage Foundation and a potential Trump administration for striking 490 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,800 Speaker 3: the right balance and getting that right. They say some 491 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 3: up the right things, but I don't trust them. 492 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,360 Speaker 1: But it is interesting to see Josh Holly, who has 493 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,679 Speaker 1: been on the wrong side of so many things, be 494 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: on the right side of interviewing that Boeing CEO. Right, 495 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 1: I mean there is a groundswell in America. I mean 496 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 1: we're a country where there's such a huge wealth and equity. 497 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 1: There is a sense here in which I think Congress 498 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 1: has an opportunity to let people know they're listening to them. 499 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,879 Speaker 1: Will you go with us just for a minute about 500 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 1: what the things you guys are doing to prepare us 501 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,639 Speaker 1: for Project twenty twenty five and what you can do 502 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 1: and what that looks like. 503 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:57,120 Speaker 3: Absolutely so, by far the most important thing that Congress 504 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 3: can do through this task force that all of us 505 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 3: can really do is to bring Project twenty twenty five 506 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,160 Speaker 3: out of the shadows of this right wing fever swamp, 507 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:09,400 Speaker 3: spotlight it, make it understood. I saw some polling yesterday 508 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 3: that only twelve percent of Americans have even heard of 509 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,400 Speaker 3: Project twenty twenty five. Crazy, and when they just sort 510 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 3: of hear about it generically, you know, it doesn't seem 511 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 3: like that big a deal to them. When we explain 512 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 3: it to them, though, This is where this gets really interesting. 513 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,439 Speaker 3: The numbers are off the charts. The negative reaction to 514 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 3: Project twenty twenty five is extreme, and it's especially strong 515 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:35,679 Speaker 3: with independence. You rarely find like overwhelming you unanimity among independents. 516 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 3: The opposition to Project twenty twenty five just with some 517 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 3: basic explanation of it jumps to eighty eight percent among independents. 518 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 3: So this is a winning message for us right now, 519 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 3: simply explaining what they're promising that they're going to do. 520 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,879 Speaker 3: It's that straightforward, and I think this should just be 521 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,439 Speaker 3: a huge part of our closing argument heading into the election. 522 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 1: The general idea of Project twenty twenty five is this 523 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 1: idea that you will destroy the federal government in such 524 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 1: a way and then replace those people with cronies. Do 525 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 1: you have ways to protect some of these federal employees. 526 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 3: Look, if we somehow let these guys have power, you know, 527 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,959 Speaker 3: there's no scenario where we roll over and just let 528 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 3: them do all these things. You will use the court system, 529 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 3: you will litigate these things. You know, if we have 530 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 3: one or both houses of Congress, there's oversight and per 531 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,679 Speaker 3: string levers that we can use. But the most definitive 532 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 3: way to stop this is to win the election. That's 533 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 3: the point that we're really trying to make here is 534 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,719 Speaker 3: the American people have an opportunity to kill this in 535 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 3: its tracks, and we got to do that because, yeah, 536 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 3: we'll keep fighting if we don't win, but there are 537 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 3: no guarantees, no right. 538 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 1: And I think that what's really important is that things 539 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 1: have gone so much worse. I mean, these guys are 540 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 1: ready to go on day one in a way they 541 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 1: weren't before. And I think you know, one of the 542 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 1: things that Trump able to do, which was really a roarchack, 543 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: was he was able to say, like, I'm not as 544 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,400 Speaker 1: conservative as all these lunatics because i come from New 545 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 1: York and I've been married ten million times et cetera, 546 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 1: et cetera. But that was that ultimately wasn't true because 547 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 1: he didn't care about policy, so we just let them 548 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,080 Speaker 1: do whatever he wanted, whatever they wanted, the sort of 549 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 1: Koch brothers crew and much more conservative than the Kochs. Right, 550 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 1: how do you explain Project twenty twenty five to people 551 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 1: in the quickest possible way? 552 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 3: So I think you have to start by talking about 553 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 3: the extremism and the attack on democracy, the authoritarianism, the 554 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,800 Speaker 3: sweeping away of checks and balances on executive power, and 555 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 3: then you've got to get right into the individual rights 556 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,240 Speaker 3: and liberties. There are other parts of Project twenty twenty 557 00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 3: five that are also alarming, but those are the ones 558 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 3: that resonate strongest according to the polling with people, and 559 00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 3: I think we've got to lead with that. 560 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 1: You come from environmental law. Quietly, the Biden administration has 561 00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 1: done some incredible environmental progressive policies. Can can you talk 562 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 1: about them? 563 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:01,720 Speaker 2: Vern Minna? Well? 564 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 1: Absolutely. 565 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 3: Look, I'm a climate action guy, I'm a climate hawk. 566 00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 3: I'm never going to be satisfied because we're winning slowly 567 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 3: is losing when it comes to the climate crisis. But 568 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 3: I've got to give this administration a lot of credit. 569 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 3: We have taken stronger, bolder, more transformational climate actions than 570 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 3: any presidency in history. We've still got a lot more 571 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,959 Speaker 3: work to do. There's still too much fossil fuel business 572 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 3: as usual, but it is very significant, and we've built 573 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 3: a foundation. So look, we had to choke down some 574 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 3: terrible fossil fuel provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act from 575 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 3: Joe Manchin, for example, Joe Mansion's got to be gone. 576 00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 3: We can go right to work undoing those Mansion pieces 577 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,720 Speaker 3: and continuing to make further progress on the good pieces 578 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 3: of that. And that's the kind of work that I 579 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 3: want to do. You can't do that in a Trump administration. 580 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 3: You can't do that with a Republican the majority in 581 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,400 Speaker 3: both houses of Congress. So it brings us right back 582 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 3: to what's at stake in this election. 583 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 1: I can't tell what's my bubble, my media bubb all 584 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 1: my own fantasy of how the world is and what, 585 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 1: because you know, the reality is all the information we're 586 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,240 Speaker 1: getting his polls, and a lot of these polls are broken, 587 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 1: so we really none of us really know what's going 588 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,120 Speaker 1: to happen. But it does seem to me that there 589 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 1: aren't a lot of Republican policies that they're shopping here, right. 590 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,520 Speaker 1: I mean Trump says crazy stuff to get elected. Right, 591 00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:24,960 Speaker 1: He's not going to make people pay taxes on tips. 592 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 1: I don't know how that's going to work. You know, 593 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: he's going to cut the Nevada right exactly in a 594 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 1: place where the service industry is the big business. And 595 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 1: then he goes and says, you know that he's going 596 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 1: to cut taxes and just have tariffs. I mean, wildly inflationary, 597 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 1: completely crazy. But it doesn't seem to me like the 598 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 1: Republicans have a ton of policy. Besides this crazy dystopian stuff. 599 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 3: Trump is an empty vessel himself. Policy for Donald Trump 600 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 3: is just power. He just wants power. I would say 601 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 3: it's different with these groups. And it's not just the 602 00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 3: Heritage Foundation authoring Project twenty twenty. It's one hundred and 603 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 3: eight I think now leading right wing groups. It's groups 604 00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:08,240 Speaker 3: that have been at the front line of the culture war, 605 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,640 Speaker 3: like you know this fake church, the Family Research Council, 606 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,320 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, yeah, the Alliance Defending Freedom, which is this 607 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 3: crazy right wing group that Mike Johnson used to work 608 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 3: for as an attorney. I mean, they want a nationwide 609 00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 3: abortion band. They want to get women back in the 610 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 3: kitchen and under their complete control. It is extreme and 611 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 3: that is that's what policy means to these folks, and 612 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,800 Speaker 3: they're going to get their way. I am convinced if 613 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,800 Speaker 3: Donald Trump becomes the president and they take both houses 614 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 3: of Congress, they're not messing around here. This is really 615 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:41,640 Speaker 3: what they want exactly. 616 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:46,680 Speaker 1: It's so I mean, it's really scary and really important 617 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:50,520 Speaker 1: to talk about. When you think about climate. Can you 618 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 1: give me like sort of what's on your climate legislation 619 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:54,480 Speaker 1: wish list? 620 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, So we've got to do more in the clean 621 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,800 Speaker 3: energy space. You know, the tax incentives we're great from 622 00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 3: the Inflation Reduction Act. We've got to clean up things 623 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,360 Speaker 3: like the incentives for fake climate solutions that we had 624 00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,479 Speaker 3: to choke down because of Joe Manchion. So, you know, 625 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 3: some of this blue hydrogen nonsense, the CO two pipelines, 626 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,560 Speaker 3: the fiction of carbon capture and sequestration. We do not 627 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 3: have time for fake climate solutions in my opinion. So 628 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 3: we got to undo the damage from Joe Manchion and 629 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 3: keep pressing. 630 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 1: And that's hydrogen is in there right. 631 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 3: Jin if it's done wrong, can take us backward, no doubt. 632 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 3: About it, and the fossil fuel industry has every intention 633 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 3: of doing it wrong. 634 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 1: The minutia of climate seems like, like should Elon Musk 635 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,240 Speaker 1: be building chargers? I mean it feels like there are 636 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,440 Speaker 1: some of this stuff has gone to people who are 637 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 1: a little bit dicey. Clearly we need more chargers, Like 638 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,080 Speaker 1: where are we with that? And can you talk about that? 639 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not as troubled by that. I don't like 640 00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 3: Elon Musk, but I do like what Tesla has done 641 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 3: for the electrification of transportation. So you know, I think 642 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 3: that his charging network is now kind of extending out 643 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,279 Speaker 3: to other companies. Tesla is not going to have the 644 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:11,920 Speaker 3: kind of dominance that it once had, although it's kind 645 00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 3: of standard is going to be the one that probably prevails. 646 00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,800 Speaker 3: So I think all of that is fine. I'm a 647 00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:22,080 Speaker 3: little bit conflicted about these tariffs on Chinese eighties is 648 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:25,760 Speaker 3: I think, frankly, our American car companies are not doing 649 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,200 Speaker 3: as much as they should in a little competition to 650 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,840 Speaker 3: kick them in the butt would not hurt the bottom 651 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:32,960 Speaker 3: line that I always come back to on this, Molly's 652 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,759 Speaker 3: we just don't have time. So anything that moves us 653 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:39,360 Speaker 3: faster and further on decarbonization. You know, I tend to 654 00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:39,799 Speaker 3: be four. 655 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, agreed, thank you, thank you, Thank you, Congressman 656 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,560 Speaker 1: so important. I really appreciate you. I hope you will 657 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 1: come back. 658 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 3: I will, and thanks so much for having me. 659 00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:58,319 Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Simon Rosenberg is a political strategist and 660 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 1: the author of the Opium Chronicles. Welcome back to Fast Politics, Simon. 661 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,719 Speaker 4: Great to be here with you, Molly always. 662 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:11,239 Speaker 1: It's great to have you. So it's like, you know, 663 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,200 Speaker 1: it's funny because it's like I actually was sort of 664 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,880 Speaker 1: fighting with someone on the podcast, not really fighting, but 665 00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 1: a little bit, and they were saying, well, you know, 666 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:24,080 Speaker 1: it's so crazy that Republicans are doing as well as 667 00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,279 Speaker 1: they are in the United States when in the UK 668 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,920 Speaker 1: the Tories are going to get decimated. And I was 669 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,520 Speaker 1: thinking to myself, we don't know how Republicans are doing, right, 670 00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:37,360 Speaker 1: all we know are these polls. 671 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 2: Yeah. 672 00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 4: Look, it's not really an analogous situation, right. 673 00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 1: I'm just saying, like, so much of the base of 674 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,400 Speaker 1: knowledge that many of us are going on is because 675 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:47,520 Speaker 1: of Poles. 676 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,399 Speaker 4: Right, And I do want to say something now about 677 00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,279 Speaker 4: this because it's important, because this is going to come 678 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,040 Speaker 4: up is that you know, the Tories have been in 679 00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,920 Speaker 4: power for a long time and have utterly failed. And 680 00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:59,239 Speaker 4: the difference between the Labor Party and the UK and 681 00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 4: the Democratic in the US is that, you know, we 682 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,760 Speaker 4: are the Democratic Party is the most successful center left 683 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,279 Speaker 4: left political party in the developed world. There has been 684 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 4: no party that has done as well as we have, 685 00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 4: even remotely close to us in Europe, in Japan, I mean, 686 00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 4: we've won more votes that seven out of eight presidential elections. 687 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,960 Speaker 4: I mean, most of the developed world, the left, the 688 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 4: center left has struggled, and here in the US we've 689 00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 4: actually been wildly successful for a long period of time. 690 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,000 Speaker 4: And I just want to establish that because I think 691 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:36,000 Speaker 4: that we forget sometimes, you know, we're always sort of 692 00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,279 Speaker 4: feeling adversity as Democrats, right, And the truth is we're 693 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 4: part of the most successful modern center left party in 694 00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:43,920 Speaker 4: the developed world, and we should be proud of that. 695 00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:44,319 Speaker 3: I think. 696 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:47,560 Speaker 4: In terms of your question about the polling, yeah, look, 697 00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,839 Speaker 4: I mean the polling right now. My view and where 698 00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 4: the election is is that you know, in twenty twenty two, 699 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,920 Speaker 4: what happened is that the election up until the spring 700 00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:00,400 Speaker 4: of twenty twenty two was largely about inflation and low 701 00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:04,160 Speaker 4: approval rating and COVID and then something changed the election. 702 00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 4: That was Uvaldi, the January sixth Committee hearings, the Dobs league, 703 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 4: and then the Dobbs decision itself, and all of that 704 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:16,560 Speaker 4: stuff congealed into this sort of big, ugly thing reminding 705 00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:20,440 Speaker 4: voters of the ugliness and the extremism of MAGA. And 706 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,759 Speaker 4: the question in this cycle was what we have to 707 00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 4: bring that ugliness into voters through our campaigns, as we 708 00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,280 Speaker 4: did in twenty twenty two, you know, with this assist 709 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,319 Speaker 4: from events, or would events help us? And I think 710 00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,560 Speaker 4: that part of what's happened in the last few weeks 711 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,600 Speaker 4: is there's some evidence that the verdict guilty, guilty, guilty 712 00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,560 Speaker 4: thirty four times has started shifting the election. The election 713 00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,319 Speaker 4: is changing, and I think that where we're entering now 714 00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 4: and what everyone should realize that, you know, we're going 715 00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 4: to have a debate in a few days, and the 716 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,640 Speaker 4: Republican convention comes, and Trump's sentencing happens, and then our 717 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,319 Speaker 4: convention and then another debate, and the election is now 718 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,879 Speaker 4: hurtling at us with incredible speed. And I think we're 719 00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,799 Speaker 4: moving the twenty twenty four elections starting to become the 720 00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 4: twenty twenty four election. It's starting to develop its own character. 721 00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,000 Speaker 4: And I think that in the last few weeks there 722 00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:11,600 Speaker 4: have been six national polls, credible, serious polls showing Biden 723 00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,240 Speaker 4: gaining between two and four points. I think the election 724 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,960 Speaker 4: has shifted a few points in our direction, but it's 725 00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,640 Speaker 4: close and competitive, and we have a lot of work 726 00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:22,359 Speaker 4: to do. But I in every way imaginable, I would 727 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,440 Speaker 4: much rather be less than them. I think it's far 728 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,360 Speaker 4: more likely that we win than they do. 729 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,359 Speaker 1: But with the twenty twenty two election and the twenty 730 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,319 Speaker 1: twenty three election and all the specials, those were all 731 00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:36,959 Speaker 1: low turnet elections, so it was a different electorate, right, 732 00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:42,640 Speaker 1: I mean, what's happening here is there is a different electorate. 733 00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,439 Speaker 1: When we talk about polling, what we see is that 734 00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:51,520 Speaker 1: the pollsters are trying to guess about an electorate that 735 00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:55,319 Speaker 1: has shown up in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen and 736 00:38:55,440 --> 00:39:00,640 Speaker 1: never before and never after. So in some ways, you know, 737 00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,600 Speaker 1: there are certainly outside issues. But if you look at 738 00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:09,920 Speaker 1: every single election since twenty sixteen, Biden and Democrats more broadly, 739 00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:12,600 Speaker 1: and Biden wasn't on the ticket in the midterms, but 740 00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,600 Speaker 1: they have won so in my mind, the question is 741 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,520 Speaker 1: what does a high turnout election look like in twenty 742 00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,440 Speaker 1: twenty four? And I think there's a lot of guessing 743 00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:22,560 Speaker 1: going on in the polling. 744 00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, let me. You raised some important things. Let me 745 00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:29,800 Speaker 4: take them on sequentially, because I think this whole theory 746 00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,920 Speaker 4: about low turnout and high turnout elections, I basically don't 747 00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:37,279 Speaker 4: ascribe to that. And the reason why is because I've 748 00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:40,520 Speaker 4: worked in campaigns. I've worked in politics, and every election 749 00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:43,600 Speaker 4: is a competition between two teams. And the notion that 750 00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,160 Speaker 4: somehow you could look at all these victories that we've 751 00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,280 Speaker 4: had in all sorts of elections all across the country, 752 00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:54,200 Speaker 4: ballot initiatives, state rep races, governors races, senate races, where 753 00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,839 Speaker 4: the two teams lined up and one team kept winning 754 00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,640 Speaker 4: and the other team kept losing, and that's somehow a 755 00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:01,719 Speaker 4: group of analysts looked at all that and said that's 756 00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,480 Speaker 4: actually bad for the winning team is absurd on its 757 00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,239 Speaker 4: face in my view. And then I think this is 758 00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,600 Speaker 4: almost like a Jedi mind trick that's happened to all 759 00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:14,920 Speaker 4: of the political commentary, and it could only be by people, 760 00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,480 Speaker 4: And who are the origins of this? People who haven't 761 00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,600 Speaker 4: actually worked on campaigns because those of us who've been 762 00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,759 Speaker 4: in campaigns recognize that every election you have no idea 763 00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,279 Speaker 4: if you're going to win. It's like a basketball game 764 00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,719 Speaker 4: and a tournament. You may be the favorite team, but 765 00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:30,239 Speaker 4: you got to go out and win the game, right, 766 00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:33,560 Speaker 4: and winning is really hard. And so first of all, 767 00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,839 Speaker 4: I just think this notion that we can look at 768 00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:40,920 Speaker 4: this extraordinary performance of the Democratic Party since Dobbs happened, 769 00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,440 Speaker 4: where parties in power, you know, going back to your 770 00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,879 Speaker 4: basic premise, right, we've won more votes in seven out 771 00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:51,240 Speaker 4: of eight presidential elections the last eight. That's the best 772 00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,560 Speaker 4: popular vote r out of an American political party in 773 00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:57,320 Speaker 4: our history. Second is that from night the last four elections, 774 00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,759 Speaker 4: we've averaged fifty one percent of the vote. That's the 775 00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,560 Speaker 4: best showing of the Democratic Party since FDRs for presidency 776 00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:08,760 Speaker 4: for presidential elections. Then post Dobbs, we've had the party 777 00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:13,399 Speaker 4: in power always loses seats in special elections, off your elections, 778 00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:17,799 Speaker 4: mid your midterm elections, and we've gained seats. And so 779 00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:21,160 Speaker 4: we've not only been on this extraordinary popular vote run, 780 00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:26,240 Speaker 4: we've also been in this extraordinary performance by a party 781 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,480 Speaker 4: in power. And I think that it is. I think 782 00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:31,560 Speaker 4: it's my view and it's the view of the campaign. 783 00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:35,080 Speaker 4: Frankly from listening to them talk that the likely scenario 784 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,680 Speaker 4: is that because the reason we've been winning is not 785 00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,840 Speaker 4: because of low turnout and audience, is that we have 786 00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:42,399 Speaker 4: better arguments than they do. 787 00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:46,600 Speaker 1: I agree that they run on nothing except Trump is God. 788 00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,920 Speaker 1: But I don't want to be like naive here, which 789 00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:53,399 Speaker 1: is it is a lower, smaller group of people. That's 790 00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:56,360 Speaker 1: why it's called lower turnout. The fact that Democrats have 791 00:41:56,480 --> 00:42:00,000 Speaker 1: sort of become the party that goes out at every 792 00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:05,560 Speaker 1: election is humongous and is a huge win for Democrats. Right, 793 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:09,799 Speaker 1: they know what the stakes are. Obviously, you can't say 794 00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:12,040 Speaker 1: that the turnout is the same because it's not the 795 00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,319 Speaker 1: turnout for the presidential elections, and the turnout for the 796 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,799 Speaker 1: midterms not the same. And I don't think Republicans are 797 00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:22,120 Speaker 1: offering anything, right, I mean, tax cuts for billionaires, extra 798 00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:25,120 Speaker 1: helping hand for oil companies. I mean, I don't think 799 00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:28,600 Speaker 1: as a normal voter, the pitch that Trump is making 800 00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,000 Speaker 1: is undoable. Right, He's going to lower inflation and he's 801 00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,680 Speaker 1: going to cut all taxes and then put a you know, 802 00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,120 Speaker 1: one hundred and ten percent tariff on everything. I mean, 803 00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:39,640 Speaker 1: he has no policy. This party has no policy. It 804 00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,759 Speaker 1: hasn't had a policy since twenty twenty when they got 805 00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:46,080 Speaker 1: rid of all the party platform. My theory of the 806 00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,000 Speaker 1: case is, look, you know, polls are pseudo events, they're 807 00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:53,439 Speaker 1: not necessarily real, and that if the numbers are sort 808 00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:55,120 Speaker 1: of moving in the right direction, that's a good sign. 809 00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:59,280 Speaker 1: I also think the pollsters are so freaked out from 810 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:03,080 Speaker 1: being wrong about Trump in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, 811 00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,920 Speaker 1: because remember they underestimated him both times, that there's a 812 00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:11,600 Speaker 1: certain kind of conservative bus stuff going on. Yeah, and 813 00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:14,080 Speaker 1: then they're flooding the zone with junkie polls too. I mean, 814 00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:16,239 Speaker 1: there's all sorts of things going on. But my question 815 00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,640 Speaker 1: is more like, what's your take at the end of 816 00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:19,040 Speaker 1: the day. 817 00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,200 Speaker 4: What I always believe to be the case, and I 818 00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,640 Speaker 4: think what the campaign has always believed to be the case, 819 00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:27,040 Speaker 4: is that when we put the choice in front of voters, right, 820 00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,920 Speaker 4: and we actually run ads, and we have this huge 821 00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,000 Speaker 4: amount of money that we're raising, which are giving us 822 00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,239 Speaker 4: the most powerful campaigns that we've ever had, both in 823 00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:39,120 Speaker 4: terms of controlling the information environment and also pushing our 824 00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:41,759 Speaker 4: performance on the ground. To the upper end of what's possible. 825 00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:44,759 Speaker 4: That the reason we keep winning is not because it's 826 00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,120 Speaker 4: a big electorate or a small electorate. Is that when 827 00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:52,279 Speaker 4: we take this this choice of pragmatic, good Democrats who've 828 00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,279 Speaker 4: made things better in people's lives and then this extremist, 829 00:43:55,640 --> 00:44:00,399 Speaker 4: freakish Maga party, that we overperform and win and they 830 00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,920 Speaker 4: underperform and struggle, And that this has happened again and 831 00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,640 Speaker 4: again and again, and that it is the likely scenario 832 00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,279 Speaker 4: for what's going to happen in this election when we 833 00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:12,400 Speaker 4: take the choice of the good Democratic Party and the 834 00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,760 Speaker 4: crazy Republican Party and we put it in front of voters, 835 00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,280 Speaker 4: funded backed up by all this money that we've been raising. 836 00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:21,839 Speaker 4: In the intensity I mean, this intensity that we at 837 00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,480 Speaker 4: in the Democratic Party, this sort of what has been 838 00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,680 Speaker 4: described as by analysts as sort of us doing really 839 00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,680 Speaker 4: well in these low turnout elections. That intensity is not 840 00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,839 Speaker 4: just translating into electoral victories because of voters. It's because 841 00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:37,880 Speaker 4: that intensity is driving unprecedent amounts of money, unprecedented numbers 842 00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,600 Speaker 4: of volunteers, and it's allowing us to build the most 843 00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,759 Speaker 4: powerful democratic political machine that we've ever had. And that's 844 00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:46,400 Speaker 4: part of the story that is being left out of 845 00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:49,640 Speaker 4: this analysis about the high turnout vote out election is 846 00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:53,319 Speaker 4: that that intensity and the money is allowing us to 847 00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:57,080 Speaker 4: continue to overperform in these elections. And I think it's 848 00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,960 Speaker 4: the general view that that's the likely scenario election. And yes, 849 00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,279 Speaker 4: I think that job we have a better candidate, we 850 00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:06,800 Speaker 4: have better arguments, we have a far better campaign apparatus, 851 00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,160 Speaker 4: and we are going to have the biggest political machine 852 00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:11,760 Speaker 4: that the Democratic Party has ever built in this election. 853 00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,560 Speaker 4: And so all of that leads me to be optimistic. 854 00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:17,359 Speaker 4: And you're right, no one I never said a good 855 00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:20,759 Speaker 4: accuse of saying that playing poll trutherism or saying the 856 00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,200 Speaker 4: polls were wrong. I never said that. What I said 857 00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,960 Speaker 4: was that I believe that the polls weren't determinative, and 858 00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:29,520 Speaker 4: that when we began our campaign started talking to voters, 859 00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:31,880 Speaker 4: that we had confidence that when we had talked to 860 00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,720 Speaker 4: voters and all of these other elections, we had seen 861 00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,680 Speaker 4: our numbers improved once the campaign has began, and because 862 00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:40,759 Speaker 4: we have a better argument, better candidate, better campaigns, and 863 00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:42,960 Speaker 4: that that is the likely scenario this time. And so 864 00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:47,000 Speaker 4: I remain deeply optimistic about where we are. And I 865 00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,520 Speaker 4: also think that what has happened in the last few 866 00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:53,560 Speaker 4: weeks is there is evidence that the verdict is acting 867 00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:58,040 Speaker 4: like a Dobbs like event in this election, where it 868 00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:02,120 Speaker 4: became in your based reminder of the ugliness of Trump 869 00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:05,799 Speaker 4: and MAGA that become unavoidable if the whole premise is 870 00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,640 Speaker 4: that people are starting to check into the election now 871 00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:11,560 Speaker 4: and that what they're checking into is that one party 872 00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,359 Speaker 4: as a serial criminal running and the other party has 873 00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,319 Speaker 4: a very successful president who's made people's lives better. You know, 874 00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:19,200 Speaker 4: I'll take that if that's going to be the way 875 00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,760 Speaker 4: we can frame this thing. And obviously the Biden campaign 876 00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:24,760 Speaker 4: right now is running a very very hard hitting ad 877 00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:27,959 Speaker 4: with a huge amount of money behind it, going right 878 00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:31,200 Speaker 4: into the felony convictions stuff and a sexual assault, the 879 00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,359 Speaker 4: fraud that he committed. You know that stuff is going 880 00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,480 Speaker 4: to hurt Trump. We already know this. I mean, the 881 00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:39,200 Speaker 4: political poll out this week showed that twenty one percent 882 00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:42,680 Speaker 4: of independent voters view the verdict as something that would 883 00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,200 Speaker 4: cause them to be less likely to vote for Trump, 884 00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:48,440 Speaker 4: and it's a voting issue for them, right and seven 885 00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:50,480 Speaker 4: percent of Republicans. I mean, if you add that up, 886 00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:53,440 Speaker 4: that's like five percent of the electorate is now saying 887 00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,080 Speaker 4: openly they're much less likely to vote for Trump, and 888 00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:59,840 Speaker 4: it's and it's so significant that it may alter their vote. 889 00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,680 Speaker 4: That's a lot of voters who have all of a 890 00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,840 Speaker 4: sudden become loosened from Trump in a very short period 891 00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,960 Speaker 4: of time, by the way, without any paid advertising or 892 00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,799 Speaker 4: paid communication to reinforce this, without the kind of what's 893 00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:14,279 Speaker 4: going to happen to Trump at the debate if he 894 00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:16,759 Speaker 4: shows up, you know, he's clearly going to get a 895 00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:20,440 Speaker 4: question at this debate about his misdeeds, and you know 896 00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,960 Speaker 4: it's going to be a really critical moment in the election. 897 00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:24,360 Speaker 4: I think because they're going to be a hell of 898 00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:26,360 Speaker 4: a lot of people watching. I think in this debate, 899 00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:28,840 Speaker 4: we don't really know. They don't know if it was 900 00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:31,400 Speaker 4: a real case and everything else, And you're going to 901 00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:35,720 Speaker 4: have credible CNN anchors talking about sexual assault, fraud, thirty 902 00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,440 Speaker 4: four felon accounts, right, And I think that you know, 903 00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:43,600 Speaker 4: we've never seen a politician have to survive something like this, 904 00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:46,280 Speaker 4: and I think it just if I can just finish, 905 00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,680 Speaker 4: is that I think that it reminds all of us 906 00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:50,960 Speaker 4: that we've been told that the Democrats took a big 907 00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:54,359 Speaker 4: risk backing Joe Biden. The big the far bigger risk 908 00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:58,319 Speaker 4: was getting behind a rapist, a fraud stir, you know, 909 00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:01,120 Speaker 4: a trader at a felon. No one's ever had to 910 00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:04,280 Speaker 4: try to sell a candidate like Trump to the public 911 00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:06,960 Speaker 4: and be successful with it. I still think it's unlikely 912 00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:08,040 Speaker 4: they will be this time. 913 00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:11,239 Speaker 1: One of the things that I'm struck by when we 914 00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:16,759 Speaker 1: talk about Trump, and you know, Biden is old, but 915 00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:21,239 Speaker 1: he is the incumbent. Incumbency is an enormous advantage. So 916 00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:24,160 Speaker 1: when there was so much, you know, they should kick 917 00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:27,320 Speaker 1: him out, drop him off the ticket, replace him with 918 00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:31,839 Speaker 1: I mean, the crazy takes that we heard coming out 919 00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,880 Speaker 1: of that. But I do think it is interesting how 920 00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:38,880 Speaker 1: skewed right the media is that that was the conversation 921 00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,280 Speaker 1: and not should Trump be on the ticket. 922 00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:43,840 Speaker 4: Part of the reason I began a substack and started 923 00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:46,759 Speaker 4: writing and sort of moved my work to this kind 924 00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:49,319 Speaker 4: of new media environment that we're all operating in. As 925 00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:52,040 Speaker 4: somebody who's a former journalist myself and been in this 926 00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,080 Speaker 4: business for a long time, I became very alarmed by 927 00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:57,200 Speaker 4: what happened in twenty twenty two at the Red Wave. 928 00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:00,520 Speaker 4: Because the Red Wave, the way that I described it 929 00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:02,800 Speaker 4: was that we had two sets of data in the 930 00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:05,880 Speaker 4: election in twenty twenty two. We had if you wanted 931 00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,359 Speaker 4: to see a Republican victory, there was data showing that. 932 00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:10,839 Speaker 4: If you wanted to see a close competitive election, there 933 00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,200 Speaker 4: was data showing that too. And instead of there being 934 00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,880 Speaker 4: a conversation about the tension in the data and that 935 00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:17,799 Speaker 4: there's you know that we don't really know where this 936 00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:20,840 Speaker 4: election is going to go. It's got conflicting data. Basically, 937 00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:24,680 Speaker 4: everybody sort of defaulted into the Republican narrative in the 938 00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:27,560 Speaker 4: final few weeks of the election, even though there was 939 00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,600 Speaker 4: an enormous amount of data suggesting that was not going 940 00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:34,440 Speaker 4: to happen, and ease in which the national media conversation 941 00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:38,520 Speaker 4: became red wave when alarmed me into some ways. It 942 00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:42,759 Speaker 4: demonstrated the power, I think of the ability of the 943 00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:45,640 Speaker 4: right wing media machine to sort of bully their stuff 944 00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:52,160 Speaker 4: into the system and overwhelm the resistance right of traditional journalists. 945 00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:55,120 Speaker 4: And I think we're in a dangerous place as a country. 946 00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:56,880 Speaker 4: I mean, I do think that we are facing an 947 00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:01,320 Speaker 4: unprecedented propaganda opparatus on the right that has the ability 948 00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:06,200 Speaker 4: to bully and dictate and push narratives into the mainstream 949 00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:09,520 Speaker 4: that don't deserve to be there. The challenge is can 950 00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:12,399 Speaker 4: the media resist it? And I think this time, going 951 00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:14,560 Speaker 4: back to that question you asked me at the very beginning, 952 00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:17,360 Speaker 4: like twenty twenty two, right now, the data is not 953 00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:19,759 Speaker 4: all pointing in the same direction. Right there's a lot 954 00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:23,280 Speaker 4: of data showing Biden being healthy and strong in winning 955 00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,960 Speaker 4: the election, and there's other data showing Trump. And instead 956 00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:28,799 Speaker 4: of us talking about the tension in data, we've defaulted 957 00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:31,200 Speaker 4: to the Republican narrative again, which is that Trump is 958 00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:31,920 Speaker 4: winning the election. 959 00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,919 Speaker 1: Well, I would like to say that I don't think 960 00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:35,520 Speaker 1: I've done that. 961 00:50:35,719 --> 00:50:36,120 Speaker 3: No, you have. 962 00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:37,400 Speaker 4: I'm saying the family. 963 00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that the right has really worked the refs. 964 00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:44,960 Speaker 1: I wonder how much when we talk about polls, we 965 00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,759 Speaker 1: don't have a lot of great information. I mean, that's 966 00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:50,000 Speaker 1: the other thing is like, so I think a lot 967 00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:52,319 Speaker 1: of these polls are you know, I just said this, 968 00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,600 Speaker 1: do you see you know fifty to fifty there. I 969 00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:58,640 Speaker 1: think there's over corrections on some sides. I think there's 970 00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:01,279 Speaker 1: undercryptions on other sides. Here's a question for you and 971 00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:04,000 Speaker 1: what we don't know? Right, Like, there are so many 972 00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:07,800 Speaker 1: of these doctored videos of Biden going out from even 973 00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:09,960 Speaker 1: I mean, we shouldn't be surprised by this, but the 974 00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,960 Speaker 1: RNC is releasing these doctored videos. You know, they're desperately 975 00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:17,320 Speaker 1: trying to paint him as having some kind of problem. 976 00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:20,440 Speaker 1: Even Biden's supporters are anxious, you know, that he has 977 00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:23,560 Speaker 1: something wrong with him. That really pumped this narrative so 978 00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:26,040 Speaker 1: hard that New York Times has run a gazillion pieces 979 00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:28,600 Speaker 1: about how he's old and da da dah, da dah. 980 00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:32,960 Speaker 1: But I'm curious, do you think, I mean, this is 981 00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:36,279 Speaker 1: a enormous country, and you know, we don't really know 982 00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:37,960 Speaker 1: where any of these people get their news. 983 00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:41,880 Speaker 4: Well, I think we do know that a couple of things, 984 00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:44,200 Speaker 4: And what you just said one is they have made 985 00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:48,440 Speaker 4: an enormous investment over many, many years in painting Biden 986 00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:49,320 Speaker 4: as old. 987 00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:51,359 Speaker 1: And infirmed, right, because it's all they have. 988 00:51:51,719 --> 00:51:54,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, this is not a new ploy, This is not 989 00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:56,160 Speaker 4: a new play in the playbook. This is something they've 990 00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,839 Speaker 4: been doing to Biden from day one of. 991 00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:01,000 Speaker 1: His presidency Tailory's emails. 992 00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:02,839 Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's had an impact. I mean, I don't 993 00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:05,000 Speaker 4: think we can deny that. You know, I have three 994 00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,279 Speaker 4: gen z kids, and it's amazing how and talking to them, 995 00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:10,799 Speaker 4: despite having grown up in Washington and been in a 996 00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:14,480 Speaker 4: political family, how much this kind of stuff reaches them. 997 00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:14,879 Speaker 3: Right. 998 00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:18,120 Speaker 4: And I do think though that going forward, you said 999 00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:20,440 Speaker 4: something that's really important, right, which is that it's all 1000 00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:23,720 Speaker 4: they have. Donald Trump has one play in this election, 1001 00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:27,760 Speaker 4: and the play is I'm winning in the polls, I'm strong. 1002 00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:30,960 Speaker 4: Joe Biden is losing the polls. He's weak, and then 1003 00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:35,520 Speaker 4: they use that weakness to go into this age infirmity thing. 1004 00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:38,640 Speaker 4: The way that we have to understand this and in 1005 00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:41,319 Speaker 4: the polling and the political business is called strong Leader 1006 00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:45,480 Speaker 4: week Leader, Right, that they're living entirely in the strong 1007 00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:49,520 Speaker 4: Leader week leader dimension of the brand architecture here of 1008 00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:52,520 Speaker 4: the two campaigns, and we need to take that away 1009 00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:52,919 Speaker 4: from them. 1010 00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:53,319 Speaker 2: Right. 1011 00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:57,480 Speaker 4: There's an urgency to us understanding that this is how 1012 00:52:57,480 --> 00:53:00,840 Speaker 4: they're fighting. It's the only thing they have, right, because 1013 00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:04,319 Speaker 4: he's a diminished candidate. He's crazier as agendas far and 1014 00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,680 Speaker 4: more extreme. He's now a serial criminal. I mean, he's 1015 00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:10,600 Speaker 4: a far more damaged piece of goods than he was 1016 00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:13,080 Speaker 4: in twenty twenty, far harder to sell to the public. 1017 00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:15,240 Speaker 4: And so they're just going to go to this one place, 1018 00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,239 Speaker 4: and we have to get ahead of that and understand that, 1019 00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:20,440 Speaker 4: which is why I spend so much in my time 1020 00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:24,440 Speaker 4: communicating about why Joe Biden's been a successful president and 1021 00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:27,239 Speaker 4: that he's a good president and that because then if 1022 00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:30,760 Speaker 4: he's a successful president, we can say he's successful because 1023 00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,200 Speaker 4: of his age and his wisdom and experience. Right, we 1024 00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:36,279 Speaker 4: can turn the age issue into an asset of not 1025 00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:38,840 Speaker 4: a liability. It's a way of getting ahead of their narrative. 1026 00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:40,799 Speaker 4: The second thing is one of the reasons I've been 1027 00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,200 Speaker 4: litigating the all stuff so much is that I don't 1028 00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,239 Speaker 4: think Trump has actually been ahead in this election for 1029 00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:48,000 Speaker 4: a very long time, and that he's been getting away 1030 00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:51,760 Speaker 4: with murder. And I think this idea that he's winning 1031 00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:55,800 Speaker 4: is allowing him to force donors into giving him money. 1032 00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,560 Speaker 4: I think this is having a material impact on his 1033 00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:02,760 Speaker 4: fundraising and that is affecting the election, and it's not correct. 1034 00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:06,040 Speaker 4: And so we need to take away this idea that 1035 00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:08,399 Speaker 4: is something other than a close competitive election. I mean, 1036 00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:12,040 Speaker 4: we know from twenty twenty two that the return of 1037 00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:15,480 Speaker 4: the red wave scared off millions and millions of dollars 1038 00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:17,840 Speaker 4: from the d tripleC in the final few weeks, money 1039 00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:19,520 Speaker 4: that was supposed to go to them that ended up 1040 00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:22,560 Speaker 4: going to governor's races and state legislative races, and that 1041 00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:25,279 Speaker 4: we lost the House because of this. They already had 1042 00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:29,359 Speaker 4: success in manufacturing this kind of strong man Weekman thing, 1043 00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,560 Speaker 4: the Red Wave, which was a version of strongman Weekman, right, 1044 00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:35,160 Speaker 4: and it worked for them, and they're doing it again 1045 00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:38,120 Speaker 4: using different terms, the strategies, the saying, the tactics are 1046 00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:42,040 Speaker 4: a little different, and we need to very much understand 1047 00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:45,640 Speaker 4: that Trump is literally running as a strong man and 1048 00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:48,720 Speaker 4: that he's trying to make it seem that it's inevitable 1049 00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:51,960 Speaker 4: that he's in the White House using whatever tactics he's 1050 00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:53,880 Speaker 4: going to use to get there, and that it's just 1051 00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:55,960 Speaker 4: time for people to line up and get on board. 1052 00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:58,600 Speaker 4: And what you're doing, Molly, and what I'm doing and 1053 00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:01,560 Speaker 4: what our family is doing, were saying no f and 1054 00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:04,400 Speaker 4: way to that right, like, we are not obeying in advance, 1055 00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:07,120 Speaker 4: we're not getting in line, We're fighting with everything we 1056 00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:09,400 Speaker 4: have and that we have to understand that this is 1057 00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:12,040 Speaker 4: like a sciops going on with them, and to be 1058 00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:14,759 Speaker 4: smart about this. I do think they're not running a 1059 00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:18,920 Speaker 4: traditional campaign to your point. Their agenda's wildly unpopular. Their 1060 00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:22,279 Speaker 4: candidate is the ugliest political thing we've ever seen. Right, 1061 00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,680 Speaker 4: They're going after Biden everything they're going to do now. 1062 00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:28,439 Speaker 4: The reason they're faking these videos is that you only 1063 00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:32,080 Speaker 4: cheat if you're losing, right, And the intensity in which 1064 00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:37,040 Speaker 4: these media organizations are debasing themselves shows how much pressure 1065 00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:41,080 Speaker 4: they're under from the Trump campaign to help them. And 1066 00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:44,719 Speaker 4: it's a sign I think to me reading backwards, is 1067 00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:47,680 Speaker 4: that I think the Trump campaign was deeply aware that 1068 00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:49,759 Speaker 4: if a guilty verdict came, it was going to be 1069 00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:52,719 Speaker 4: very damaging to him. And they are acting like a 1070 00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:57,000 Speaker 4: campaign that is worried and concerned and like throwing a 1071 00:55:57,000 --> 00:55:59,520 Speaker 4: lot of shit against the wall because they know that 1072 00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:03,040 Speaker 4: his brand, the core Trump brand, has been eroded and 1073 00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:06,279 Speaker 4: damaged by what's happened over the last few weeks. Otherwise, 1074 00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:08,919 Speaker 4: you know, the Murdoch Empire wouldn't be going into such 1075 00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:12,440 Speaker 4: hyperdrives right now in defending him. You know, from everything 1076 00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:16,640 Speaker 4: from those fake videos to the ridiculous polling that Fox 1077 00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:20,760 Speaker 4: released ten days ago, which was absurd. They are rallying 1078 00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:23,000 Speaker 4: for their guy, but they rally for their guy because 1079 00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:24,320 Speaker 4: he's weak, not because he's strong. 1080 00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:26,000 Speaker 1: Thank you, Simon. 1081 00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:27,160 Speaker 4: Molly, It's always a pleasure. 1082 00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:31,080 Speaker 2: They're no moment o. 1083 00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,239 Speaker 1: Jesse Canon Mai Junk Fast. 1084 00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:37,799 Speaker 2: Do you smell something rotten? Because I do. And it's 1085 00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:38,800 Speaker 2: the Supreme Court. 1086 00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:42,879 Speaker 1: So they have still like seven thousand opinions to go. 1087 00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:44,879 Speaker 2: They had to schedule another day. 1088 00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:49,719 Speaker 1: It's the twentieth of June. They're supposed to release the 1089 00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:53,120 Speaker 1: opinions thround June. But what they're doing here in this 1090 00:56:53,680 --> 00:57:00,560 Speaker 1: six three super majority, very right wing craziness, is they 1091 00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:03,479 Speaker 1: are trying to run out the clock so they can 1092 00:57:03,640 --> 00:57:10,480 Speaker 1: release as many of these very explosive country shaping opinions 1093 00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:13,719 Speaker 1: as close to vacation as possible and then go on 1094 00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,800 Speaker 1: vacation and not have to deal with people freaking out 1095 00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:20,160 Speaker 1: or protesting. This is not what a Supreme Court is 1096 00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:23,840 Speaker 1: supposed to do. Again, like I've said this before and 1097 00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:26,600 Speaker 1: I unfortunately I think I will say it again. None 1098 00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:30,640 Speaker 1: of this is normal. That's it for this episode of 1099 00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:34,440 Speaker 1: Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to 1100 00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:37,360 Speaker 1: hear the best minds in politics makes sense of all 1101 00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:40,959 Speaker 1: this chaos. If you enjoyed what you've heard, please send 1102 00:57:41,000 --> 00:57:43,720 Speaker 1: it to a friend and keep the conversation going, and 1103 00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:45,280 Speaker 1: again thanks for listening.