Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday.
Speaker 3: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do
Speaker 3: we impressed all? Indeed, we do.
Speaker 1: Lots of things happening here and around the world. So
Speaker 1: a bunch of new polls came out, none of them
Speaker 1: really very good for Democrats. Will take a look at
Speaker 1: the shifts there and what exactly is going on. We're
Speaker 1: also going to speak to Senator Nina Turner. She is
Speaker 1: going to talk to us about that Obama lecture to
Speaker 1: black men wild She has a lot of thoughts, so
Speaker 1: excited to talk to her about that. And also Dems
Speaker 1: are cutting an ad against Jill Stein another third party Cannis.
Speaker 1: That's a first, and I think it displays their nervousness
Speaker 1: about how much Jill Stein and Pertainer could cut into
Speaker 1: their vote totals, probably in states like Michigan. So we're
Speaker 1: also going to ask Nina Turner about that. Apparently Trump
Speaker 1: is saying that he is going to go on Joe
Speaker 1: Rogan's podcast. Roganhead in the past resisted having the former
Speaker 1: president on. Perhaps that may be changing, so we'll talk
Speaker 1: about that in the broader context of what people are
Speaker 1: deeming now the podcast election, a lot of very troubling
Speaker 1: news coming out of Israel and Gaza. In particular, there
Speaker 1: was a horrific strike by Israel on a hospital a
Speaker 1: Tens city there for displaced people caught fire. There are
Speaker 1: just unimaginably awful images of patient strapped to ivs who
Speaker 1: are being burned alive. So we will brace yourself for
Speaker 1: that one, but we'll talk about that. Also Haswlas struck
Speaker 1: in Israeli military base and there were some significant number.
Speaker 4: Of casualties there. That's quite significant as well. We're taking
Speaker 4: a look at.
Speaker 1: On a much lighter note, Gretchen Witmer apologizing after filming
Speaker 1: a really weird video. Show you that, and I'm taking
Speaker 1: a look at Elon's impact on this election, which may
Speaker 1: actual be unprecedented given the fact that Trump is saying
Speaker 1: he gave he is giving him five hundred million dollars,
Speaker 1: so half a billion dollars. And obviously he's running an
Speaker 1: entire social media platform for his benet benefit. He's effectively
Speaker 1: running the Trump campaign in Pennsylvania, which is the most
Speaker 1: critical swing state.
Speaker 4: So we'll take a look at all of those things.
Speaker 3: That's going to be really interesting before we get to that.
Speaker 2: Thank you to everybody he's been signing up at breakingpoints
Speaker 2: dot com premium subscribers. Remember we have that exclusive election
Speaker 2: content with our forecaster Logan. He will be on the
Speaker 2: show tomorrow, so you're going to take some behind the
Speaker 2: scenes look. I found his analysis like so helpful. This
Speaker 2: guy is so in the weeds. And we also will
Speaker 2: be dropping to exclusive election content as we get closer
Speaker 2: to election day.
Speaker 3: How long is it twenty one? We have twenty two days?
Speaker 4: I think it is there.
Speaker 2: You go, really three weeks one, so we're getting down
Speaker 2: to the wire pretty close to the time. Change too
Speaker 2: excited for that right before election day, so we get
Speaker 2: two double whammy's. But go ahead and sign out breakingpoints
Speaker 2: dot com. You'll be able to take a look at
Speaker 2: our maps we'll just say, you know, our maps were
Speaker 2: quite accurate last time, so there you.
Speaker 4: Go, here's more of them mine. I got to give
Speaker 4: you a credit for that.
Speaker 2: You know, it's funny I called every state in the election.
Speaker 2: I thought I would get more credit for it, and
Speaker 2: it ended up though, because of stop the steal.
Speaker 3: Republicans were like, no.
Speaker 4: Your map, your math is wrong.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I did call it the election.
Speaker 2: I didn't mistakenly click Maine wrong, so it doesn't look right, but.
Speaker 4: Stating error it was at I apologize.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we'll see. You want to go ahead and
Speaker 2: sign up. You can take a look at that. We'll
Speaker 2: revealed them a couple of days before election day. We'll
Speaker 2: all talk about it and stuff like that. So let's
Speaker 2: go ahead and start with the polls. As you said,
Speaker 2: things really not looking good for Kamala Harris and the
Speaker 2: Democrats right now. Let's put this up there right now.
Speaker 2: Three national polls dropped yesterday morning. ABC IPSOS Harris was
Speaker 2: up fifty to forty eight, CBS News You Go, Harris
Speaker 2: was up fifty one forty eight, NBC News forty eight
Speaker 2: forty eight tied. All three had their last polls in September,
Speaker 2: so listen to this. ABC in September, Harris was up
Speaker 2: by six, now only up by two, NBC Harris was
Speaker 2: up by four, up now by three, and NBC probably
Speaker 2: the biggest drop, had Harris up by five at that time,
Speaker 2: now having the race tied. So keep in mind, not
Speaker 2: only are all of these polls within the margin of error,
Speaker 2: but most importantly, two or three points in the national
Speaker 2: popular vote is just not going to cut three maybe,
Speaker 2: but two almost certainly not.
Speaker 3: You guys can go ahead and take a look at Nate.
Speaker 2: Silver's popular vote analysis for yourself if you're interested. But
Speaker 2: none of those are comfortable enough territory for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2: And when we start to break down where the change
Speaker 2: and all of that is coming from and some of
Speaker 2: the movement on the economy, that's probably the most important.
Speaker 2: Steve Kornaki at NBC News breaking this down. Let's take
Speaker 2: a listen.
Speaker 5: She's the VP in an unpopular administration. Look, we ask
Speaker 5: Joe Biden's policies as president, do you think they're helping
Speaker 5: or hurting your family? Look at that almost two to
Speaker 5: one say hurting more than helping. His job approval rating
Speaker 5: is in the low forties. And then Here's the twist.
Speaker 5: When you ask folks when Trump was president or his
Speaker 5: policies helping or look at that difference, Forty four percent
Speaker 5: say helping, thirty one percent say they hurt.
Speaker 3: So there you go.
Speaker 2: Points on the economy, A lot of the are hurting
Speaker 2: my family. What people think about whether Trump administration policy
Speaker 2: help their family up by a thirteen point margin.
Speaker 3: Trump really is.
Speaker 2: He is in such a unique political position where he
Speaker 2: was the president, people could see him in that job.
Speaker 3: He wasn't that president. He was president not that long ago.
Speaker 2: And so you have the direct contrast, and you have
Speaker 2: not the incumbent like we had with Biden, but you
Speaker 2: have that relative incumbency with the vice president. And that
Speaker 2: is why I just go back to that moment from
Speaker 2: the view crystal where she said nothing in particular that
Speaker 2: I can think of except all sorry, I would have
Speaker 2: Liz Cheney or whatever, and I was just I was like,
Speaker 2: what an insane answer.
Speaker 3: And all of the data is bearing that out.
Speaker 2: So if Kamala loses a lot of it will come
Speaker 2: down to not only the economy, but the inability to
Speaker 2: truly distinguish herself from Joe Biden, the presidency, the administration,
Speaker 2: and to draw contrast with Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: I've been a little little hesitant to on this because
Speaker 1: it matches my own political ideologies and beliefs a little
Speaker 1: bit too.
Speaker 4: Closely, right of like, oh.
Speaker 1: Guess what, you stopped talking about price gouging and started
Speaker 1: talking about Liz and Dick Cheney and your polls are
Speaker 1: moving in the wrong direction.
Speaker 4: Gee, who could have predicted?
Speaker 1: You know, at the beginning of when she comes in,
Speaker 1: there were a few very clear things she needed to accomplish.
Speaker 1: Number One, she needed to separate herself from Joe Biden.
Speaker 1: I mean this has been beyond obvious from day one,
Speaker 1: because he is very unpopular and people are very unhappy
Speaker 1: with how the economy was under him, predominantly because of inflation.
Speaker 4: So she needed to figure out a way to.
Speaker 1: Separate from him on the economy specifically, but also in
Speaker 1: another area where it's very unpopular, and it was where
Speaker 1: it's a big problem with the progressive base, on Israel
Speaker 1: and Palestine. She has been totally able, even at this
Speaker 1: point to figure out how to message on that, how
Speaker 1: to actually create some distance, not just rhetorical distance, but
Speaker 1: actually create some distance, and people were open to her
Speaker 1: being different, you know, We've seen polls in the past
Speaker 1: that said, oh, people actually think she's the change candidate,
Speaker 1: because you know, it's kind of a vibe thing. She
Speaker 1: looks and feels different. She's you know, identity wise, she's different, stylistically,
Speaker 1: she's different, she's from a different part of the country, whatever.
Speaker 1: She's much much younger, obviously than either of those two
Speaker 1: these two men. But since she was unable to back
Speaker 1: up that vibe of change with any substance, here we
Speaker 1: are right.
Speaker 4: Then you roll out some pretty.
Speaker 1: Good policies that are really popular, things like that the
Speaker 1: price gouging thing I talked about, you know, the housing policy,
Speaker 1: and they still come up. So I'm not going to
Speaker 1: say she didn't talk about them whatsoever. But the thing
Speaker 1: they've chosen to lean into the hardest is I'm going
Speaker 1: to have Republicans in my cabinet. Here I am, yes, here,
Speaker 1: I am campaigning with Liz Chaney. Where's the campaign with
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, who was profoundly more popular, especially among working
Speaker 1: class voters, than Liz Cheney is.
Speaker 4: So they decided to go in that direction.
Speaker 1: I think their theory was that the problem for Kamala
Speaker 1: is that people see her as too liberal when really
Speaker 1: the biggest problem for Kamala is that people see her
Speaker 1: as having zero ideological commitments or core and by doing
Speaker 1: this whole like pivot to Liz Cheney thing, she's only
Speaker 1: underscored and exacerbated those problems. Now, I do want to
Speaker 1: say that there's a lot of assumptions that the polls
Speaker 1: are going to understate Trump again because they understated him
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, and they understated him in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: That is certainly possible, but it's not definitive. Twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: they understated Democratic support. And we're going to talk about
Speaker 1: this in a little bit, And we've mentioned on the
Speaker 1: show before many of these pollsters have changed their methodology
Speaker 1: to try to guarantee. They're very risk averse to try
Speaker 1: to guarantee they won't understate Trump support this time. So
Speaker 1: they are using a different method than they did back
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty when you actually had the largest miss.
Speaker 4: So there's no guarantees.
Speaker 1: About which way the polls, you know, under state or
Speaker 1: overstate the support. But what you can say for sure
Speaker 1: about these polls, since we had them up on the screen,
Speaker 1: three national polls, all three you know credible pollsters that
Speaker 1: in each instance the polls have moved away from Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1: And so if you see a you know, a significant
Speaker 1: shift that is consistent across pollsters, where you know, within
Speaker 1: that same pole using that same methodology, it is shifted,
Speaker 1: you have to feel that that is representing something real.
Speaker 1: The last thing, the last point I'll make before we
Speaker 1: dig into some more of the numbers here is some
Speaker 1: of these polls have for like a.
Speaker 4: Two point margin.
Speaker 1: There is some indication that Democrats are closing the gap
Speaker 1: in terms of the disparity between the popular vote and
Speaker 1: the electoral college vote, predominantly because Trump is winning more
Speaker 1: people in Florida, which is definitely going to be a
Speaker 1: red state, in New York, which is definitely going to
Speaker 1: be a blue state, in California, which is definitely going
Speaker 1: to be a blue state. So when you win more
Speaker 1: voters in those states that are not swing state, it
Speaker 1: does not really matter in terms that it's stupid, but
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter in terms of you becoming president of.
Speaker 4: The United States.
Speaker 1: So it is possible that a two point popular vote
Speaker 1: victory for Kamala Harris does amount to a narrow electoral
Speaker 1: college win, but it's man it's right on the bubble
Speaker 1: for her, assuming that these poles are accurate, which is.
Speaker 3: A major assapsher exactly.
Speaker 2: So look, everybody, I think the most important point that
Speaker 2: you just made was about movement within them. So if
Speaker 2: the assumptions were relatively the same and then you're moving away,
Speaker 2: that's not the best thing for you. And especially like
Speaker 2: you were just talking about with the popular vote, I
Speaker 2: can go ahead and pull that up and just take
Speaker 2: a look at it. So yeah, right now, Nate Silver
Speaker 2: has her at a d victory with two point eight
Speaker 2: percent of the popular vote. When things start to go
Speaker 2: a little bit underneath that or in a tie territory,
Speaker 2: that is when you get to that scenario. So it's
Speaker 2: not as big as it used to be. Let's also
Speaker 2: put a three please up on the screen because this
Speaker 2: was a really important point read alert for the Harris campaign.
Speaker 2: In the ABC poll out this morning, fifty nine percent
Speaker 2: of US adults state that the economy is getting worse,
Speaker 2: more than twice as many saying that it is getting better.
Speaker 2: Let's go to the next one, because CBS News also
Speaker 2: reflected this not only in the fifty one to forty
Speaker 2: eight but really also in the battleground at fifty to
Speaker 2: forty nine. Remember here that the margin of error is
Speaker 2: some two point three points. This is also important because
Speaker 2: this is actually a likely voter poll. It says Donald
Speaker 2: Trump is one point closer to Kamala nationally than last month,
Speaker 2: and the decisive battle grounds remain effectively even so even
Speaker 2: just puts you an error away from losing, and just
Speaker 2: generally one of the very difficult things about this election,
Speaker 2: and this is actually in the sprint to election day,
Speaker 2: there is not a single flagship, tent pole moment that
Speaker 2: will happen in the next twenty two days that is
Speaker 2: not controlled by the campaign, as in, there will be
Speaker 2: no debate, there will be no you know, there will
Speaker 2: be no major event that some sixty seventy million people
Speaker 2: are going to watch like traditionally, actually right around now
Speaker 2: in mid October is when that third debate usually happens
Speaker 2: on foreign policy, and then you have the sprint there.
Speaker 2: We're going to have some media style events, town halls,
Speaker 2: et cetera, but none of those will ever have the
Speaker 2: same reach. So actually, one of the reasons why Kamala
Speaker 2: is uniquely vulnerable in my opinion, is that the global
Speaker 2: system is very unstable right now with the Iran war situation,
Speaker 2: and you know, being tied to that, being tied to
Speaker 2: the status quo, and also just being tied to a
Speaker 2: general feeling of chaos in the world. If that were
Speaker 2: to really break through and take over the airwaves, that's
Speaker 2: very dangerous.
Speaker 3: She's also uniquely, you know, has a problem.
Speaker 2: Let's say that there is major movement in the stock
Speaker 2: market for reasons that have nothing to do with her
Speaker 2: or even with the you know, with the national policy.
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: People are really going to make up their minds on
Speaker 2: election day. So you and I were talking in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 2: a decent part of the elector, especially in Michigan, Pennsylvania
Speaker 2: and Wisconsin broke. I think it was like fourteen percent
Speaker 2: of people made up their minds just in the last
Speaker 2: couple of days before the election. It's not going to
Speaker 2: be that high. It was eight percent, and twenty twenty,
Speaker 2: let's say it's five. I mean five is the Martin victory. Actually,
Speaker 2: So for a lot of these peoples, you're really leaving
Speaker 2: yourself up to unique macro conditions of which you have
Speaker 2: no control whatsoever. And that is why, you know, this
Speaker 2: is really an issue where she's not even really banking
Speaker 2: on the economy anymore.
Speaker 3: It's just all abortion all the time.
Speaker 2: If you look at all of the swing state polls,
Speaker 2: and I think it's I think she's she's in a
Speaker 2: very vulnerable place.
Speaker 3: I'm not saying she can't win.
Speaker 2: She absolutely could, but if she does, I think it'll
Speaker 2: be very very narrow, especially compared to the Joe Biden
Speaker 2: victory or even Obama or you know, some of the
Speaker 2: like twenty twelve and two thousand and eight previously. So
Speaker 2: it's it really is tough. It's not I think the
Speaker 2: landscape is definitely not good for her right now.
Speaker 1: Here's what I would say is that, do I think
Speaker 1: she would be doing better if she leaned into, you know,
Speaker 1: the top concern of voters, which is economics, on which
Speaker 1: she has popular policies. You know, I think you know,
Speaker 1: we had a whole debate about Trump's teariff policy, but
Speaker 1: her line about Trump's tax and really hammering home that
Speaker 1: his policy will raise prices for consumers. You know, do
Speaker 1: I think she would be doing better if she was
Speaker 1: hammering that every single day?
Speaker 4: Absolutely, no doubt.
Speaker 1: But I also have to say it's possible the campaign
Speaker 1: she's running will be enough, because it wasn't twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: and I didn't think it would be. You know, this
Speaker 1: is effectively the campaign Democrats ran in twenty twenty two
Speaker 1: where they thought, hey, we can get together this you know,
Speaker 1: bipartisan anti Trump coalition and not really run on the
Speaker 1: economy at all. I mean they did not talk about
Speaker 1: the economy really at all in twenty twenty two, or
Speaker 1: Biden in twenty twenty for that matter, he did not
Speaker 1: run on specific policy proposals with regard to the economy
Speaker 1: in the general election in twenty twenty. So in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, you know, the playbook was a democracy abortion,
Speaker 1: They're extreme, and it was enough. It was enough to
Speaker 1: forestall a predicted red wave.
Speaker 4: What the polls were all.
Speaker 1: Showing at that point that economic numbers were far more
Speaker 1: dire than they are right now. I mean that was
Speaker 1: really at the peak of infleetion. You were just coming
Speaker 1: off of all of the unhappiness over COVID lockdowns and
Speaker 1: that whole fight. So the landscape in twenty twenty two
Speaker 1: was actually a lot worse in a lot of ways
Speaker 1: for Democrats than it is now. And the hey, abortion
Speaker 1: plus extremism message was sufficient to buck historical trends to
Speaker 1: you know, to win the Senate and to come very
Speaker 1: close actually in the House. So I can't say confidently
Speaker 1: that it won't work, that it won't be enough. It
Speaker 1: might It may well be enough. You know, Democrats did well.
Speaker 1: They lost in twenty sixteen, obviously, even though they you know,
Speaker 1: it's worth pointing out, they did win the popular vote
Speaker 1: there as well. But they did well in twenty eighteen,
Speaker 1: they did well in twenty twenty, they did well in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. So, you know, I think the the
Speaker 1: certitude that many have right now that Kamala Harris is
Speaker 1: one hundred percent got to lose. I just, you know,
Speaker 1: I just would have some humility about the predictions at
Speaker 1: this point because we've seen so many different iterations and
Speaker 1: polls be off in so many varied ways over the
Speaker 1: course of the past decade.
Speaker 2: Very important, and you know, unlike, oh, I see so
Speaker 2: much poll triumphle at vism out there. Yeah, I am
Speaker 2: amazed by it. I'm like, how many of you were
Speaker 2: saying red wave back in twenty twenty two and you
Speaker 2: just look like an idiot after words, I mean, you
Speaker 2: have to do some serious soul searching. You know, I've
Speaker 2: been burned twenty sixteen, twenty sixteen, twenty twenty. In twenty
Speaker 2: and twenty two, those are like the three biggest polling
Speaker 2: errors I've seen just in my professional careers. Yeah, so,
Speaker 2: I have no idea how you could do this for
Speaker 2: a living and then tell people with a straight face
Speaker 2: that you're going to have the exact same polling air
Speaker 2: as you did in twenty sixteen twenty twenty.
Speaker 3: Absolutely stupid.
Speaker 2: You should unfollow anybody who is telling you that, let's
Speaker 2: put this on the screen too, because this is actually
Speaker 2: central too. Why I am so skeptical still and still
Speaker 2: remain in the fifty to fifty camp, Whereas if I didn't,
Speaker 2: I would just be like, Oh, I think Trump is
Speaker 2: going to win. Nate Silver talks here about how quote
Speaker 2: New York Times polls are betting on a political realignment.
Speaker 2: What he talks about, specifically is that the twenty twenty
Speaker 2: electorates substantively is very different than the twenty twenty two electorate,
Speaker 2: which dramatically swung independence towards Democrats. Key features of the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two midterm race. Yes, I know it is different,
Speaker 2: but it has some interesting things that we need to
Speaker 2: carry over. Number One, mid terms had the same Republican
Speaker 2: advantage in terms of voter voter identification. More people identified
Speaker 2: as Republicans. However, didn't end up mattering why because independence
Speaker 2: broke dramatically for the Democrats. Number two, you have the
Speaker 2: same white and the same white college educated swing of
Speaker 2: these highly engaged voters who came out hard for the Democrats,
Speaker 2: donated a ton of money, had a ton of political
Speaker 2: enthusiasm at the same time that you saw the inklings
Speaker 2: of what happened in twenty twenty where you had Latino
Speaker 2: and black men specifically shift towards the Republicans, but it
Speaker 2: was not enough to put them over. So one of
Speaker 2: the reasons why the New York Times polls are so
Speaker 2: different than others is because they are not doing the
Speaker 2: same thing that many others are doing, which is trying
Speaker 2: to compose their polls as being exactly reflective of the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty electorate. That's why you see a lot of
Speaker 2: them in the way that they are and why the
Speaker 2: New York Times is so different. For example, on Florida.
Speaker 2: One of the reasons why I do kind of buy
Speaker 2: their thesis is Trump only won Florida by three points.
Speaker 2: What's he going to win it by this time? Minimum
Speaker 2: in my opinion six to eight, right, it could win
Speaker 2: it by fourteen. They have him up by plus thirteen.
Speaker 2: So if anything, I would bet on a Republican wave there.
Speaker 2: That is very important because that tells us that the
Speaker 2: same voter characteristics of twenty twenty two are going to
Speaker 2: try and carry over here.
Speaker 3: And the country has changed so much.
Speaker 2: I want everybody to try and to think about who
Speaker 2: you were in the year twenty twenties.
Speaker 3: Sounds crazy, but you know, I was going to watch
Speaker 3: old old videos.
Speaker 2: Myself is a different person, literally completely different, and even
Speaker 2: the way I talk and I look everything. Everybody's like that,
Speaker 2: especially in terms of your political evolution. Also in terms
Speaker 2: of this selection. You know, Logan made us such a
Speaker 2: great point most and the last time that we talked
Speaker 2: to him and he was like, you know, in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty is the last time is one of the only
Speaker 2: elections only since like when wars were involved where the
Speaker 2: government had a direct impact in everybody's lives, from state local,
Speaker 2: from vaccines to the bailouts.
Speaker 3: There's so much stuff that was going on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, now we're kind of things are a little bit
Speaker 2: different now, especially on the front in terms of people's expectations.
Speaker 2: And also Roe versus Wade was the political earthquake that
Speaker 2: changed things completely, needed to reshape the entire way that
Speaker 2: a lot of entire generation really, especially if women, but
Speaker 2: it's college educated men too, of the way they think
Speaker 2: about politics. So when I put all that together, I
Speaker 2: just can't bet on having the same electorate this last
Speaker 2: time around. It doesn't make any sense to me. So
Speaker 2: I am betting a little bit on this, you know, realignment,
Speaker 2: and I think it. I think come election day, we're
Speaker 2: going to see a major mistake by some polsters. Now
Speaker 2: I'm not saying Kama will win, because the realignment can
Speaker 2: go Trump way too. You've got him winning. We're about
Speaker 2: to talk with Nina Turner. Black voters by seventy eight percent.
Speaker 2: You know, in the past, if Democrats didn't win black
Speaker 2: voters by what is it, I think more than fifteen.
Speaker 3: They're going to lose the entire national election.
Speaker 2: But they made up a lot of white voters, so
Speaker 2: you could still definitely get your way there. But I
Speaker 2: just want people to really caution and think about how
Speaker 2: much things have changed in the last four years and
Speaker 2: why you really shouldn't look to the previous one.
Speaker 1: I'm fairly persuaded by the Nate con analysis too, because
Speaker 1: it just makes more sense and it also helps to
Speaker 1: explain the of the variation between polsters as well. But
Speaker 1: like the New York Times pools so nationally, they found
Speaker 1: it effectively tied Pennsylvania. They had common with the four
Speaker 1: point lead, right, And you know, basically, Pennsylvania's the ball
Speaker 1: game effectively, That's what both campaigns think if you look
Speaker 1: at the likely tipping point state. I mean, just because
Speaker 1: it is such a swing state, and because it is
Speaker 1: so evenly divided, and because it has such a large
Speaker 1: number of Electoral College votes ascribed to it, Pennsylvania is
Speaker 1: effectively the ballgame. And what they're saying is that if
Speaker 1: you guys remember in the twenty twenty two midterms, overall,
Speaker 1: the red wave did not materialize, But there were a
Speaker 1: few exceptions Florida and New York in particular, and there
Speaker 1: may have been a few other states, but those were
Speaker 1: the two main ones that really shifted.
Speaker 4: The red wave was there?
Speaker 1: I mean, what did Dessantas won by double digits in Florida?
Speaker 1: All kinds of swing district Democrats were swept down in.
Speaker 4: The state of New York.
Speaker 1: In fact, if New York had performed for Democrats the
Speaker 1: way there rest the country did, Democrats actually would have
Speaker 1: gained control of the House. It's just because of the
Speaker 1: rudwave actually showed up there. And there are a lot
Speaker 1: of indications if you look at the congressional polling, the
Speaker 1: congressional level polling, that you're shaping up to a similar
Speaker 1: electoral phenomena where in New York. I think those you know,
Speaker 1: swing district Democrats.
Speaker 4: In New York are in trouble.
Speaker 1: I think in Florida, Trump is going to do very
Speaker 1: very well and exceed his past vote, But some of
Speaker 1: the other states don't necessarily look as clearly in that direction.
Speaker 1: You know, in in the same year when Ronda Santis
Speaker 1: wins Florida by double digits, John Fetterman won Pennsylvania by
Speaker 1: a very clear margin, and the governor of Pennsylvania, Shapiro,
Speaker 1: he won.
Speaker 4: By double digits.
Speaker 1: So, you know, if you think about not only where
Speaker 1: everybody is from a political ideology perspective, but if you
Speaker 1: also just think literally of where people live now, there
Speaker 1: was a huge migration during in post COVID that you know,
Speaker 1: hadn't shown up yet in twenty twenty, so even that
Speaker 1: makes things really different. The last thing I'll say is
Speaker 1: matticg Lysias made this point. I think it's one that's
Speaker 1: important to keep in mind in terms of the realities
Speaker 1: of the American electorate. It is still an overwhelmingly white electorate.
Speaker 1: So even if Republicans pick up you know, ten or
Speaker 1: fifteen points among black voters, if Democrats improve two points
Speaker 1: with white voters two points, then they still win.
Speaker 4: So that's why you.
Speaker 1: Should just have a lot of you know, a lot
Speaker 1: of humility as you're looking at these results. It could
Speaker 1: really go either way. Still, it is still very close.
Speaker 1: I think it's a very closely divided country, and you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's possible we get some new polling error that
Speaker 1: had not been foreseen previously. And I do think it's
Speaker 1: important to keep in mind that a lot of these polsters,
Speaker 1: because they're so terrified, understandably like, of getting it so
Speaker 1: wrong as they did in twenty twenty. Remember, there were
Speaker 1: polls coming out of Wisconsin was like Vine's gonna win by.
Speaker 2: Sixteen points or whatever, seventeen points in the state of Wisconsin, right.
Speaker 1: So they're terrified of that happening again. So effectively, what
Speaker 1: they've done is to cluge away that ties their polls
Speaker 1: very closely to what the result was in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: so they won't get burned to the extent that they
Speaker 1: did last time. I think that does probably minimize the error,
Speaker 1: but that doesn't mean that they're getting it.
Speaker 3: Right here, right, are exactly right?
Speaker 2: Could underestimate Democrats as a lot of them did back
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty twenty.
Speaker 3: Two, so we'll see.
Speaker 2: It's a fund mental gain'd be interesting. It's also I mean,
Speaker 2: what I love about it is I just love the
Speaker 2: fact that America is still such a dynamic country. People
Speaker 2: can vote different four years ago, eight years ago, two
Speaker 2: years ago. It validates you know, everyone is always like, oh,
Speaker 2: nothing matters, everybody just votes exactly the same.
Speaker 3: It's just not true.
Speaker 2: You know, we're actually seeing a rise of more split
Speaker 2: ticket voters than ever before, which I think is a
Speaker 2: great thing, actually very healthy for the country. There are
Speaker 2: a ton of Mastriano Oz voters, sorry of Oz Shapiro
Speaker 2: voters who are out there. There are a lot of
Speaker 2: people out there who will vote for Donald J. Trump
Speaker 2: for president and will vote for Reuben Diego for senator.
Speaker 3: There are a lot of people who.
Speaker 2: Will vote for Bob Casey and for Donald Trump in
Speaker 2: the state of Pennsylvania. And I honestly I think that's good.
Speaker 2: I think it's a good thing no matter which way
Speaker 2: you know, these things all go, because that tells you
Speaker 2: you can't just take these people for granted.
Speaker 3: All these like vote are people.
Speaker 2: That was kind of the rule of politics from twenty
Speaker 2: ten onwards. We're really seeing the new rise of a
Speaker 2: lot of split ticket voters. Makes it much harder to predict.
Speaker 2: But in general, you know, people have to vote. People
Speaker 2: have to actually fight a little bit harder for your
Speaker 2: vote rather than assume, oh, these yogls are just going
Speaker 2: to come out and.
Speaker 3: Pull the lever for me.
Speaker 1: We're about to talk to Nina Turner may more about
Speaker 1: race and politics and what Obama had to say to
Speaker 1: black men in particular. But I also think it's very
Speaker 1: clear that like the Democratic assumption that black people could
Speaker 1: just be pan or two based on you know, their
Speaker 1: race and based on a civil rights Act that passed,
Speaker 1: you know, before either of us were born, right, parent,
Speaker 1: I'm not going to try to do the map in
Speaker 1: my head, because that'll just be embarrassing.
Speaker 4: But you know that just playing.
Speaker 1: To their racial identity would be sufficient, or that just
Speaker 1: playing to the racial identity of Latinos would be sufficient,
Speaker 1: and they were wrong about that. And you know, frankly,
Speaker 1: this is something we've been talking about for a long time.
Speaker 4: It's like, you know, talk to talk.
Speaker 1: About black voters or the black community or the Latino
Speaker 1: community really erases that these are just human beings, individuals
Speaker 1: with a variety of concerns that aren't really different from
Speaker 1: whatever my concerns are. Your concerns are, your concerns are,
Speaker 1: and so part of what we're seeing with this racial
Speaker 1: de alignment is really a rejection of that very surface level,
Speaker 1: very hollow, pandering style of identity politics. And you know,
Speaker 1: we'll see if Democrats ever learned that lesson.
Speaker 3: All right, let's bring her in.
Speaker 1: Very lucky to be joined this morning by the honorable
Speaker 1: Nina Turner, former campaign co chair for Bernie Sanders and
Speaker 1: founder of We Are Somebody.
Speaker 4: Great to see my friends, Good to you, good.
Speaker 6: To be here both of you. And I'm a low
Speaker 6: horse today, so apologies.
Speaker 1: Well, your insights are what we always look for, and
Speaker 1: those will be sparkling as usual, I have no doubt.
Speaker 1: So Barack Obama hit the trail for Kamala Harris, and
Speaker 1: as part of that, he had a very direct message
Speaker 1: for black men voters in particular, Let's take a listen
Speaker 1: to a little bit of what you had to say.
Speaker 6: We had not.
Speaker 7: Yet seen the same kinds of energy and.
Speaker 6: Turnout in all quarts of.
Speaker 8: Our neighborhoods and to get usus so I was right.
Speaker 7: Now, I also want.
Speaker 8: To say that that seems to be more pronounced with
Speaker 8: the brothers. So if you don't mind, just for a second,
Speaker 8: I'm going to speak to yellow red. Part of it
Speaker 8: makes me think that, well, you just aren't feeling the
Speaker 8: idea of having a woman as president, and you're coming
Speaker 8: up with other alternatives.
Speaker 9: And other reasons for it.
Speaker 8: So now your.
Speaker 7: Thinking about sitting out or even supporting somebody who has
Speaker 7: a history of detigrating you because you think that's a
Speaker 7: side of strength, because that's what being a mandas for women.
Speaker 7: Now that's not exciting.
Speaker 1: So a senator, what did you make of this commentary
Speaker 1: from the former president?
Speaker 9: I mean, CHRISTI it makes my skin crawl every time
Speaker 9: I hear it.
Speaker 6: The president was.
Speaker 9: Out of line, and I am saying this is someone
Speaker 9: that was a delegate for President Barack Obama in the
Speaker 9: great state of Ohio twice two thousand and eight and
Speaker 9: also on twenty twelve, who supported this president even though
Speaker 9: after his eight years, I am very disappointed when I
Speaker 9: look at him from a critical eye in terms of
Speaker 9: what happened and did not happen for the black community.
Speaker 6: But for the president, for President.
Speaker 9: Obama to admonish to publicly shame black men, it is
Speaker 9: wrong because when we look at every single male demographic
Speaker 9: in this country, when it comes to giving a woman
Speaker 9: an opportunity to be president, black men are number one
Speaker 9: in that. In twenty sixteen, Secretary Hillary Clinton enjoyed over
Speaker 9: eighty percent of the black man's vote, over eighty percent.
Speaker 9: You know how many votes you got from white men,
Speaker 9: thirty two percent. So if President Obama wants to lecture
Speaker 9: men in general about the fact that they're all socialized
Speaker 9: in a sexist society, then he can do that, but
Speaker 9: to single out black men to do like a public
Speaker 9: shaming of black men, and then to say as if
Speaker 9: they don't they have a choice, they can make a
Speaker 9: choice like black men have agency, like any other voter.
Speaker 6: But to me, he made it seem like they.
Speaker 9: Have to like they have an obligation to vote for
Speaker 9: Vice President Harris, and that is wrong. They have an
Speaker 9: obligation to vote their consciousness, and if they want to
Speaker 9: vote the other way, even though some of us may
Speaker 9: not like, it is their right to do.
Speaker 6: Like anybody else, he wouldn't dare.
Speaker 9: Try to shame white men Asian men air No other
Speaker 9: man would he come and step two like that. And
Speaker 9: I just want to I remember when Reverend Jesse Jackson,
Speaker 9: he made this statement, you know, a while ago, but
Speaker 9: he said President Obama talks down to black people.
Speaker 6: And President Obama proved that point.
Speaker 9: The numbers don't add up, and for him to come
Speaker 9: at black men like that, it just didn't makes it.
Speaker 9: And last point on this, it's really the antithesis of
Speaker 9: what Vice President Harris said. Because she was recently interviewed
Speaker 9: by the Black Journalists Association and they asked her a
Speaker 9: question and she, you know, just to sum up paraphrase,
Speaker 9: she said, I shouldn't assume that black men are going
Speaker 9: to vote for me. I have to earn their vote.
Speaker 9: And I'm paraphrasing her, but that was the right thing
Speaker 9: to say, and President Obama just came in and stepped
Speaker 9: all on top of that. And I've talked to black men.
Speaker 9: Black men have walked up to me. I'm getting dimned
Speaker 9: all over.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 9: Even this morning, when I was at the gym, a
Speaker 9: young black man walked up to me to say, thank you,
Speaker 9: Senator Turner for standing up for us. The President has
Speaker 9: no idea how he is hurting black men because when
Speaker 9: he speaks, people listen. In some circles he's a deity,
Speaker 9: which I want. I'm here to tell people he's not.
Speaker 9: He's fallible, but you know, he has an extra burden
Speaker 9: that some other people do not have. And this shaming
Speaker 9: of black men then allows other people who do not
Speaker 9: have good instincts or good will towards the black community
Speaker 9: at large, to think that they can walk all over
Speaker 9: black men too.
Speaker 6: Black men don't deserve this.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you're saying that, and I think it's really
Speaker 2: important to just treat black man or any man or
Speaker 2: whatever like anybody else.
Speaker 3: Let's put this up on the screen.
Speaker 2: You know, from the New York Times, something that really
Speaker 2: struck out to me was quote, just sixty three percent
Speaker 2: of black voters and forty six percent of Hispanic voters
Speaker 2: said that quote keeps its promises is describes a Democratic
Speaker 2: Party better than the Republicans. And then similarly, if you
Speaker 2: look at the economic outlook, only twenty six percent of
Speaker 2: Black voters say that the current economic conditions are good
Speaker 2: or excellent. So if you put those two things together
Speaker 2: and people are let's say, drifting in the direction of
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, it just makes them like anybody else who
Speaker 2: is disillusioned with.
Speaker 3: The overall Democratic Party.
Speaker 2: So I want your reaction kind of to that specifically
Speaker 2: and about the outlook, especially on the moving away from
Speaker 2: the keeps its promises. When over half of these Black
Speaker 2: voters are saying the Democratic Party does not keep its promises, well,
Speaker 2: then shaming them makes it arguably even more disgusting to
Speaker 2: lecture them.
Speaker 6: Absolutely, you hitting the nail on the head.
Speaker 9: I just left the interview with Santitita Jackson, Reverend Jackson's daughter,
Speaker 9: as a matter of fact, where one of the panelists
Speaker 9: said that some of the backlash is because the black
Speaker 9: community does not feel like President Obama delivered.
Speaker 6: You know, but the stats that.
Speaker 9: You put up really identifies that voters from all demographics
Speaker 9: feel a certain type of way in this moment. It
Speaker 9: is not a vibe and it's not joy. I mean,
Speaker 9: you can't just simply say the word joy when over
Speaker 9: sixty percent of workers in this country say that they're
Speaker 9: living paycheck to paycheck.
Speaker 6: You just can't say.
Speaker 9: The word joy when the minimum wage has not been
Speaker 9: increased for well over a decade, when inflation is eating
Speaker 9: up any little games that people have had, and when
Speaker 9: people have to work, you know, two and three jobs
Speaker 9: just to make ends meet. When I was growing up,
Speaker 9: an extra job was really an extra job. Now an
Speaker 9: extra job is a necessity. So Saga, your point is
Speaker 9: that black voters, and if we single out black men,
Speaker 9: are really feeling the same pressures that any other voter
Speaker 9: is feeling. And as we criticize Republicans for calling Vice
Speaker 9: President Harris, you know, a dei, which is wrong, she
Speaker 9: is not. When President Obama talks to black men that
Speaker 9: way and he emphasizes theenotype race and or ethnicity in
Speaker 9: that way, you're making a scene like that, and it's
Speaker 9: just he is wrong.
Speaker 6: He's out of step. And you know what, people forget.
Speaker 9: Donald Trump was all the rage for the hip hop community,
Speaker 9: and he was all the rage for the political community too.
Speaker 6: Let me let not let them off the hook. Because
Speaker 6: former President Donald J.
Speaker 9: Trump got all the receipts, the donations that he has made,
Speaker 9: the pictures.
Speaker 6: With these folks.
Speaker 9: So how dare you, President Obama or anybody else try
Speaker 9: to shame the black community and black men in particular.
Speaker 9: And you know what I think, Crystal and Segar. If
Speaker 9: Vice President Harris loses, they're setting it up for black
Speaker 9: men to take the falls.
Speaker 6: Right, Yeah, and it's wrong.
Speaker 9: People want to know that you have a vision, to
Speaker 9: provide provision and to lift them up. They're sick and
Speaker 9: tired of hearing Donald Trump is the worst. If he
Speaker 9: is the worst, and I do believe that Donald Trump
Speaker 9: is a type of threat to democracy, but he's not
Speaker 9: the only threat to democracy. There are many things that
Speaker 9: threaten democracy, like not giving aid to the hurricane victims
Speaker 9: while we send them billions of dollars overseas.
Speaker 6: That is a threat to democracy.
Speaker 9: Not having a full fledged primary and locking people out
Speaker 9: that is a threat to democracy. There's all kinds of
Speaker 9: threats to democracy. He's one, but he's not the only one.
Speaker 9: And the Democrats are missing a perfect opportunity to show
Speaker 9: themselves to be different than the Republican Party. That's why
Speaker 9: that those data points are showing that way. People are
Speaker 9: frustrated and they tired of being lied to and played
Speaker 9: around with. This ain't a bide. This is people's This
Speaker 9: is life and death for some people.
Speaker 4: That's right, that's right.
Speaker 6: I'm just I mean, you guys know how I feel.
Speaker 9: I love people, and I want to see elected officials
Speaker 9: do the right thing by the people of this country,
Speaker 9: and it's just not happening.
Speaker 6: And black people feel the same way. So you can't
Speaker 6: shame you.
Speaker 9: Know what, if you got to shame people, and I'm
Speaker 9: saying this as a if you have to as somebody
Speaker 9: who has served in an elected office, if you got
Speaker 9: to shame folks to get their vote, you've already lost.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1: No, that's that's such a great point, you know, and
Speaker 1: Saturn there, I was thinking this morning, and there was
Speaker 1: a another piece in the Times about this. You know,
Speaker 1: Democrats really had this very triumphulous view about how has
Speaker 1: the nation got more diverse? They would just naturally pick
Speaker 1: up voters, and you know, over time, as black and
Speaker 1: brown communities grew in the country and younger generations were
Speaker 1: more diverse, but effectively they could just sort of take
Speaker 1: them for granted and they would just march into their coalition.
Speaker 1: And they also really leaned into a politics that you
Speaker 1: and I have both criticized at times, which is a
Speaker 1: representation or identity only lens of progressivism that said, for example,
Speaker 1: that by electing the first black president, that this would
Speaker 1: automatically benefit the entirety of the black community. You know,
Speaker 1: with Latino voters, it was similar like, if we just
Speaker 1: focus on immigration alone and are more welcoming of immigrants,
Speaker 1: then you know, because you're Latino, that must be the
Speaker 1: key to your heart and you know the electoral paths
Speaker 1: of victory, and the exact opposite has happened. I mean,
Speaker 1: you have Donald Trump out here using rhetoric that I
Speaker 1: don't think it's unfair to describe as Nazi, ask about
Speaker 1: vermin and inciting a you know, campaign of hatriot against
Speaker 1: Haitian immigrants in a town in your home state there
Speaker 1: and doing all of these things, and yet at the
Speaker 1: very same time he's actually gaining ground.
Speaker 4: With these groups.
Speaker 1: So you know, what do you how do you explain
Speaker 1: and understand that trend and what would your message to
Speaker 1: Democrats be about Rather than shaming these voters how they
Speaker 1: could actually adjust and win people back in these communities.
Speaker 9: That's it, Chris, So you said it, instead of shaming,
Speaker 9: prevent a vision that provides provision for the people in Springfield, Ohio,
Speaker 9: the Haitian community. You know that city has had to
Speaker 9: spend extra money to protect people because of what Senator JD.
Speaker 6: Vance and President Donald J.
Speaker 9: Trump is propagating against the Haitian community. The level of
Speaker 9: vitriolity he has against immigrants are putting people's lives in danger. So, yes,
Speaker 9: President Trump is a type of threat, There's no doubt
Speaker 9: about it. The Democratic Party, though, must stop focusing so
Speaker 9: much on what Donald J. Trump is doing and what
Speaker 9: they're going to do.
Speaker 6: Donald J.
Speaker 9: Trump is predictable. President Trump is predictable. People already know him.
Speaker 9: They know what he's gonna say, they know what he's
Speaker 9: going to do. So Democrats think that they think this
Speaker 9: is twenty twenty again, because that's pretty much how they
Speaker 9: won in twenty twenty. You know, the scare tactics against
Speaker 9: President Trump, that's not gonna work. That dog is not
Speaker 9: gonna hunt, as they say in Its South. That dog
Speaker 9: is not going to hunt this time. It is not
Speaker 9: just telling people about Project twenty twenty five, and what
Speaker 9: a threat it is.
Speaker 6: It is.
Speaker 9: But Democrats, where's your project twenty twenty five? Progressive's already
Speaker 9: laid out a plan for you to have a project
Speaker 9: twenty twenty five.
Speaker 6: It's called Medicare for All. We're sixty three percent of
Speaker 6: voters in the swing states that Democrats are gonna need
Speaker 6: to win believe we should have medicare for all.
Speaker 9: The war is a problem over worm, A majority of
Speaker 9: Democrats to believe that the weapons being given to Israel,
Speaker 9: even in the face of genocide, is a problem. Yet
Speaker 9: these people will not listen and answer to their own voters.
Speaker 9: So Crystal, my message to the Democratic Party would be
Speaker 9: focus on your message and your vision and why the
Speaker 9: voters of this country Black Americans are otherwise should vote
Speaker 9: for you. Why would you do things differently? Are you
Speaker 9: going to not listen to the corporate just wing the class.
Speaker 6: Are you gonna do something different.
Speaker 9: Or are you gonna keep playing the same games over
Speaker 9: and over again. People are tired of being lied to, Crystal.
Speaker 9: That is the bottom line of people's eyes are opening up,
Speaker 9: and it doesn't matter if they are color, it doesn't matter,
Speaker 9: you know what, how they identify the voters are suffering
Speaker 9: right now, and the failure of my party to recognize
Speaker 9: the suffering.
Speaker 6: They covering it up, and they trying to.
Speaker 9: Ram down people's throats that everything is okay. But when
Speaker 9: I came pay for my groceries, when I'm having a
Speaker 9: hard time putting gas in the tank, when I'm only
Speaker 9: getting seven hundred and fifty dollars for a hurricane that
Speaker 9: blew down on me in North Carolina or Georgia or Florida,
Speaker 9: when folks who have the power right now are taking
Speaker 9: their time.
Speaker 6: See the felon of the Democratic Party is this. Donald J.
Speaker 6: Trump ain't in office right now.
Speaker 9: Democrats are, and they had two years of control of
Speaker 9: both chambers and the presidency and did nothing spectacular with
Speaker 9: the power that they had.
Speaker 6: People see that, and they know that, and they feel that.
Speaker 9: But instead of my party being honest about it, they
Speaker 9: want to try to shame people. So my message is,
Speaker 9: stop listening to those people in the bubble and start
Speaker 9: listening to the people in the streets.
Speaker 6: We'd be much better off.
Speaker 4: Yeah, no doubt about it.
Speaker 1: I wanted to get you quickly to weigh in on
Speaker 1: something else that's a very interesting development, which is that
Speaker 1: Democrats have now cut an ad against doctor Jill Stein,
Speaker 1: who of course is the Green Party nominee.
Speaker 4: This is the first that they've really.
Speaker 1: Paid any attention to her, and I think it's very
Speaker 1: interesting and potentially very revealing. So let's take a look
Speaker 1: at that ad and I'll get your thoughts on the
Speaker 1: other side.
Speaker 10: Jill Stein, Green Party candidate for president. So why are
Speaker 10: Trump's close allies helping her? Stein was key to Trump's
Speaker 10: twenty sixteen wins in battleground states. She's not sorry she
Speaker 10: helped Trump win. That's why I vote for Stein. It's
Speaker 10: really a vote for Trump.
Speaker 6: For Jill Stein.
Speaker 4: I like her very much.
Speaker 6: You know why she takes one hundred percent from them.
Speaker 4: I'm Kamala Harris and I approve this message.
Speaker 1: So I don't know how much money is behind this ad,
Speaker 1: So I don't know how widespread it is in circulation
Speaker 1: or how much it's just an internet ad, But to me,
Speaker 1: very noteworthy that they decided to cut this ad, and
Speaker 1: I think potentially very revealing of some concern, especially maybe
Speaker 1: in the state of Michigan, that people who are disgusted
Speaker 1: with the Biden Harris enabling of a on the side
Speaker 1: in Gaza are looking for a candidate who opposes that.
Speaker 9: The Poland data shows it, Crystal doctor Stein is winning
Speaker 9: in the Arab American community in Michigan. That ad makes
Speaker 9: my skin crawl as well, because the people who want
Speaker 9: to vote for doctor Jill Stein we assuming that if
Speaker 9: doctor Stein was not on the ballot, that they would
Speaker 9: be voting for Democrats, and that's a wrong assumption. They're
Speaker 9: voting for doctor Jill Stein or the Green Party because
Speaker 9: the Green Party puts up a different message, a different platform,
Speaker 9: and a different vision for this country.
Speaker 6: And yet it is very telling they must.
Speaker 9: Be scared and to conflate her voter saying that she
Speaker 9: is helping Donald J. Trump when nothing can be further
Speaker 9: for the truth. Again, this is the United States of America.
Speaker 9: So I thought I was. I also thought that people
Speaker 9: have agency in their ability to vote. That's what I thought.
Speaker 9: But the Democrats, by this ad and how they also
Speaker 9: comported themselves in the primary by locking everybody out out
Speaker 9: of the primary, is showing that they themselves don't believe
Speaker 9: in small D democracy as they profess to. This is
Speaker 9: wrong and it takes away the agency of voters and
Speaker 9: it makes it seems like voters don't know what they
Speaker 9: want and what they're doing. You poor little voters, We're
Speaker 9: gonna tell you what to do and how to vote.
Speaker 9: It's just it's wrong. It's menacing what the Democratic Party
Speaker 9: is doing. And I'm really ashamed of my party would
Speaker 9: stoop to this level to say that anybody that doctor
Speaker 9: gill Stein and the Green Party is in any way
Speaker 9: enabling a president Donald J.
Speaker 6: Trump.
Speaker 9: If they want to talk about donations, let's talk about
Speaker 9: donations here.
Speaker 6: When I ran for.
Speaker 9: Congress, a lot of Republicans jumped into the special election
Speaker 9: in Cleveland, Ohio, in a solidly Democratic district and donated
Speaker 9: to my opponent. Okay, so don't don't don't bring it
Speaker 9: here when they talk about APAC money, APAC funds both
Speaker 9: Democrats and Republicans equal, So don't bring it here in
Speaker 9: terms of talking about doctor Stein and doctor Ware and
Speaker 9: the Green Party in this way.
Speaker 6: I believe in democracy.
Speaker 9: I am a Democrat, but I don't answer, I don't
Speaker 9: worship this party. Democracy is more important to me, and
Speaker 9: so them coming at doctor jill Stein shows and the
Speaker 9: Green Party shows how weak they are right now. And
Speaker 9: it is also the antithesis of what they say so
Speaker 9: now they can't chastise the Republicans anymore about being a
Speaker 9: threat to democracy, because what the Democratic Party is doing
Speaker 9: right now is a threat to democracy. Voters want choice
Speaker 9: in the United States of America. We should not just
Speaker 9: have a duopoly in the United States of America. And
Speaker 9: if they got better ideas, they certainly raising more money.
Speaker 9: Why are you suing to get people like doctor West
Speaker 9: off the ballot and suing to get people like doctor
Speaker 9: Stein and doctor Ware from the Green Party off the ballot?
Speaker 9: If my party is all that they certainly getting all
Speaker 9: the money, they get all the airplay on mainstream media.
Speaker 6: So what y'all scared of?
Speaker 4: Yeah, that the.
Speaker 9: American people will see different choices and then they will
Speaker 9: make a different choice.
Speaker 3: Couldn't agreement they we should compete straight up?
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, obviously they they don't feel that way.
Speaker 1: The funny thing in doctor Stein pointed this out on
Speaker 1: Twitter is that while they're accusing her of like being
Speaker 1: supported by Republicans, Kamala hars is running around campaign with
Speaker 1: Liz Chaney and Towny her support.
Speaker 6: These are.
Speaker 9: That example, honor to have Dick Cheney endorsement campaign and
Speaker 9: with Senator Liz Cheney but progressors like us.
Speaker 4: Oh no, no, oh no, I haven't seen that.
Speaker 9: They rather have Republicans and the progressives.
Speaker 6: That is very toning.
Speaker 1: We see how, we see how it's working out for them.
Speaker 1: The voice movie Horse. But as always, the message comes
Speaker 1: through Ladin clear center, Nina Turner, Grace say you you.
Speaker 6: Oh my god.
Speaker 9: I appreciate you both so much and just love that
Speaker 9: you give opportunity for other voices that just don't walk
Speaker 9: the afine line.
Speaker 6: You both know. I'm a lover of people.
Speaker 9: I'm a lover of and I do believe that folks
Speaker 9: who have elected titles they owe the people that they
Speaker 9: serve to really lift them. And God knows people in
Speaker 9: this country really do need this right now.
Speaker 6: Thank you both.
Speaker 3: Great to see Ana too.
Speaker 6: Bye bye.
Speaker 2: Some interesting news out of a more recent interview between
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and the Nelk Boys, he says he is
Speaker 2: going to be doing the Joe Rogan Experience podcast.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 11: You're doing a lot of podcasts recently. One that I
Speaker 11: would love to see you on. Is I think Joe
Speaker 11: Rogan has to have you on?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 11: Would you do that? Oh?
Speaker 6: Sure, I would?
Speaker 11: I think Joe like besides us Joe. Yeah, so you
Speaker 11: are going to do Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan is the
Speaker 11: best in the game for sure. And I think, you know, did.
Speaker 7: Joe become so well known because of the UFC and
Speaker 7: he does a great job with it?
Speaker 6: Right?
Speaker 11: What was it that made Joe the best during COVID?
Speaker 11: You know, he was very outspoken on all the corruption
Speaker 11: going on during COVID, And I think that's personally when
Speaker 11: I started watching him a lot too. Just he's an
Speaker 11: honest guy.
Speaker 3: Too, right he is.
Speaker 11: So I think goody, good guy, and I think you
Speaker 11: guys together would.
Speaker 3: Just got a good voice.
Speaker 6: It's important.
Speaker 2: You gotta love the NELK guys being like, besides us,
Speaker 2: he's the biggest come on bro. So I just can't
Speaker 2: get over that. That's incredible. That is such. That is
Speaker 2: a very inflated picture. I guess I'll just dove.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Also a little bit interesting that he said he was like,
Speaker 2: well in twenty twenty during COVID, that's when I became
Speaker 2: aware of him. I'm like, well, he was already the
Speaker 2: biggest podcast in the world in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 3: But okay, I mean.
Speaker 1: I do get the sense Trump really has no idea
Speaker 1: of this fear like he's he's you know, people in
Speaker 1: his world are like, oh, you should do this one,
Speaker 1: you should do that one. But I don't feel like
Speaker 1: he's himself consuming.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but here's very cable news.
Speaker 2: Here's at least what I respect about Trump and his campaign,
Speaker 2: at least around this and especially with the candidate, because
Speaker 2: there's not enough politicians who can do this where he'll
Speaker 2: have staff where like or advisors. Dana White in particular,
Speaker 2: Dani's friends with the NELK guys. I'm assuming that's how a.
Speaker 3: Lot of this happened.
Speaker 2: But Daniell just be like, hey man, these are really
Speaker 2: big and Trump is like, oh really, and he's like okay.
Speaker 2: It's like one of those where he is fully aware
Speaker 2: that these are very influential and he understands that it
Speaker 2: has some major impact in terms of reaching people. The
Speaker 2: reason why we wanted to highlight this if it's true,
Speaker 2: By the way, I have no inside knowledge or anything.
Speaker 3: I haven't asked Joe.
Speaker 2: He had previously said he didn't necessarily want to have
Speaker 2: Trump on, not out of anything personal, but because he
Speaker 2: didn't want to have like the major political candidates.
Speaker 3: Maybe he's changed his mind.
Speaker 2: I know he's made some comments recently, He's like some
Speaker 2: things that I would like to ask Trump. He previously
Speaker 2: had Bernie Sanders on in the twenty sixteen or sorry,
Speaker 2: in the twenty twenty campaign.
Speaker 3: But the reason why this is.
Speaker 2: Important is it really does highlight the strategies both Trump
Speaker 2: and Harris. The call back to the Call Her Daddy
Speaker 2: appearance by Kamala Harris, let's put this up there on
Speaker 2: the screen from Axio Sarah Fisher, she's a really good
Speaker 2: media reporter, and she wrote this up, which is the
Speaker 2: podcast Become Politician Magnets, And what she highlights is just
Speaker 2: the obvious trend to probably anyone who's watching this show
Speaker 2: but hasn't yet sunk in for a lot of people,
Speaker 2: is just how much podcasts and specifically like shows like
Speaker 2: ours or a million others that are out there, have
Speaker 2: become the dominant consumption of not just political content, but
Speaker 2: of all content, and that that is the best way
Speaker 2: to reach people who are under the age of thirty five.
Speaker 2: So if you look within here, what they talk about
Speaker 2: is not only the Call Her Daddy appearance that Kamala did.
Speaker 2: And by the way, there was some really there was
Speaker 2: some stupid analyses done. They were like, Oh, look, Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris's Call Her Daddy appearance on YouTube wasn't that big.
Speaker 2: I'm like, guys, Call Her Daddy is predominantly an audio podcast.
Speaker 2: They get ten million listeners, the second largest podcast in
Speaker 2: the world behind Rogan would I would not diminish the
Speaker 2: influence of that, just from knowing the pop culture influence
Speaker 2: of it itself, the amount of merchcy sells and all
Speaker 2: the other stuff. But Trump, I mean, if you look
Speaker 2: at the other ones that he's done recently, between all In,
Speaker 2: Lex Reeman, THEO, Von Logan Paul, this is all a
Speaker 2: major young male strategy. And Rogan has talked about this before.
Speaker 2: He said, hiss like audience is like ninety something percent. Man,
Speaker 2: I'm willing to bet that's probably the same case for
Speaker 2: like Logan Paul, for THEOVON, for both of those. I mean,
Speaker 2: these are comedy podcasts. They're very like male Space. I
Speaker 2: don't think there's anything wrong with that, by the way,
Speaker 2: but it's just one of those what it shows you
Speaker 2: how in particular, if you think about the podcast demo
Speaker 2: and actually UFC is a good analogy to this. The
Speaker 2: UFC is not only like is it I wouldn't call
Speaker 2: it explicitly right wing, but it's got a very right
Speaker 2: wing audience. But if you ever been to a UFC fight,
Speaker 2: that's the multi racial or male.
Speaker 3: Working class if you want, I'm serious, you'll look around.
Speaker 3: He's the people from all over the world.
Speaker 2: Black, white, Hispanic, WWE's very much the same way. They
Speaker 2: have a huge black Latino fan base as well. Like
Speaker 2: that is what he's going for, and that's why, you know,
Speaker 2: part of the whole like black like Latino conversation that
Speaker 2: frustrates me is that they don't ever focus in on
Speaker 2: the gender gap. So actually, in that NBC poll that
Speaker 2: we led our show with, if you look at the crosstab,
Speaker 2: Trump's male numbers are the highest level since any candidate
Speaker 2: since Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty. The female number is
Speaker 2: actually like relatively static. It's more about movement within the
Speaker 2: female demographic in terms of like white men or a
Speaker 2: white females and you know, Latino females or whatever. But
Speaker 2: with men specifically across all races, especially with Latino and
Speaker 2: Black men, that is where the most movement is happening.
Speaker 3: I mean Trump. I would not.
Speaker 2: Put it past Trump to win nearly fifty percent of
Speaker 2: the Latino male vote in twenty twenty four. That is
Speaker 2: crazy compared to where it was in twenty sixteen. It
Speaker 2: was like roughly in the thirties. So that is how
Speaker 2: I see the podcast move more than anything. Both and
Speaker 2: the choices of them call her daddy. And then a
Speaker 2: lot of these male dominated pods like Milk Boys, you know,
Speaker 2: for example, who do you think is watching that?
Speaker 3: You know? Right? Yeah?
Speaker 4: No, Rogan is like, you know, the crown jewel of
Speaker 4: the bros Field.
Speaker 3: Oh, absolutely so.
Speaker 1: And he's it's interesting too, like if this is real, which,
Speaker 1: like you said, it hasn't been confirmed, and lord knows,
Speaker 1: Trump can make some shit up on the fly.
Speaker 3: You never know, right, he did.
Speaker 2: It check Joe not that long ago. Yeah, remember we
Speaker 2: covered it. He was like, he's like, Joe Rogan is
Speaker 2: a lightweight or something like that. He said that he
Speaker 2: gets booted, He's going to get booed at UFC.
Speaker 1: Yeah, because what Joe said something critical of him and
Speaker 1: got in his feelings about it was something like he said, I.
Speaker 3: Think he said I think Kamala is going to win
Speaker 3: that or maybe he.
Speaker 4: Said she did a good job in the eight was that?
Speaker 3: What what what I don't know anyway, so stupid.
Speaker 1: But I mean it's also interesting because Joe previously did
Speaker 1: not want to interview Trump because he feels like I'm
Speaker 1: a comedian, like I don't know if I'm really the
Speaker 1: person to interview I'm not a journalist, right, And there's
Speaker 1: because this mode of politics has become more normalized, it's
Speaker 1: possible he feels more comfortable like, oh, well, if the
Speaker 1: freakin boys kind of interview him, like, you know, I
Speaker 1: could probably.
Speaker 4: Do a better job than May.
Speaker 1: At least I'll ask him something that might be a
Speaker 1: little bit challenging. But you know, it's it's no secret
Speaker 1: also why both Kamala and Trump and any other politician
Speaker 1: loves this realm because Kamala knows she can go on
Speaker 1: with Alex Cooper and call her daddy and just like,
Speaker 1: you know, not get asked a single difficult question. Trump
Speaker 1: knows damn well when you're sitting down with the Milk
Speaker 1: Boys that it's all going to be just like friendly
Speaker 1: banter and games.
Speaker 4: And so.
Speaker 1: You know, this is also part of a strategy to
Speaker 1: avoid really having any challenging questions. And I think it
Speaker 1: does post some difficult ethical issues for people who are
Speaker 1: comedians who are cultural figures like Alex Cooper, like Andrew
Speaker 1: Schultz or whatever. It's like, you know, it still remains
Speaker 1: that that ethical quandary of Okay, I'm not well studied
Speaker 1: in the Middle East, in the history of the Middle
Speaker 1: East and what's going on with this conflict.
Speaker 4: I'm not well studying these areas.
Speaker 1: Do I feel like it's a responsible thing for me to,
Speaker 1: you know, to interview this incredibly powerful person who is
Speaker 1: vying for the highest office in the land. And I
Speaker 1: do think it's a like, I think it's a tricky thing.
Speaker 1: I think it's a difficult thing. But the more that
Speaker 1: it becomes normal and you know, typical within a campaign.
Speaker 1: First of all, the more politicians are going to lean
Speaker 1: into it because it's nothing but a win for them.
Speaker 1: They get to go on and get asked softball questions
Speaker 1: and have clips that go viral and reach a demographic
Speaker 1: that's important to them. But and you know, it also
Speaker 1: obviously serves the interests of those podcasters who get to
Speaker 1: have a big guest and all the incentives are in
Speaker 1: the opposite direction of asking difficult questions and actually you know,
Speaker 1: challenging any of these political candidates.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the good news is I think, I mean, Joe's
Speaker 2: had previous skepticism about that about having politicians on in
Speaker 2: the past, so and he actually can be a sleeper
Speaker 2: when he wants to be, like in terms of undercutting
Speaker 2: or be like what do you mean by that, and
Speaker 2: like really pressing. Some of his best like some of
Speaker 2: his best moments of deconstructing somebody really just come from
Speaker 2: like a very skeptical face and probing. So I would
Speaker 2: hope to see a little bit of that. But look,
Speaker 2: it gets to you should not be going into that
Speaker 2: being like expecting like a like an NBC News like
Speaker 2: Meet the Press interview. That's not what they're going for either.
Speaker 2: Stif it's literally is not a job. So yeah, I
Speaker 2: think it's a difficult question.
Speaker 1: But like you said, you don't want to end up
Speaker 1: just being like a propaganda piece.
Speaker 4: Like I think about this.
Speaker 1: You know, if I get asked to go on Fox
Speaker 1: News because I said something critical of Democrats and they're like,
Speaker 1: just say that, don't say the thing that you know
Speaker 1: it is critical of Trump, and so you know, I'm
Speaker 1: leary in those situations of just getting used to make
Speaker 1: like a propaganda point for their own purposes. And so
Speaker 1: I think you have to be concerned about that as well,
Speaker 1: even if you are just like, you know, a cultural
Speaker 1: phenomenon like an Alex Cooper or whatever.
Speaker 4: Because she did get just turned into like a propaganda
Speaker 4: piece with Kamala.
Speaker 3: I think she's kind of fine with it. I think
Speaker 3: she is too.
Speaker 1: But I mean, you know, that's that's what you did, girl,
Speaker 1: like you did an infomercial for Kamala Harris. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: maybe you're good with that, that's fine, but you know,
Speaker 1: I saw backlash even from her audience of like, yeah,
Speaker 1: we're super happy that that was the use.
Speaker 4: Of the platform.
Speaker 2: I don't disagree with you, I'd be Look, I think
Speaker 2: at this point he at least can see what the
Speaker 2: other people have either done right or wrong, what was
Speaker 2: the best strategy of feeling that strategy was the best one,
Speaker 2: and just treat him like a normal guest. And if
Speaker 2: he were Trump's superpower. In all interviews, he just talks,
Speaker 2: talks and talks. He likes to control the conversation, especially
Speaker 2: doesn't like like follow up questions or anything like that.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, this is his media training for years
Speaker 2: and years. He knows exactly what he's doing, so getting
Speaker 2: around that is going to be the most difficult thing
Speaker 2: that can be a plus or minus in a three
Speaker 2: and a half four hour podcast. So the time is
Speaker 2: actually probably the most important. One of the things that
Speaker 2: politicians do is they almost never agree to a three
Speaker 2: hour interview. They usually do like one hour. Trump can
Speaker 2: do a one hour interview all day long. I'vean interviewed
Speaker 2: Trump four times almost every single time was nearly one hour,
Speaker 2: and you know, trying to control that he knows exactly
Speaker 2: like when to allow a follow up or when not to,
Speaker 2: and it can be quite difficult, you know, to get
Speaker 2: in there. So time is going to be critical, asking
Speaker 2: like a follow up question or any of that. Something
Speaker 2: I think Joe and actually even Schultz and some of
Speaker 2: the other people like Lex and all those did is
Speaker 2: they asked something which Trump is not necessarily used to,
Speaker 2: and that's whenever you would get interesting answers. So for example,
Speaker 2: like Lex remember being like, so, how you know, what
Speaker 2: do you think about bringing people together?
Speaker 3: And Trump was like, I'm not interested in that.
Speaker 2: Basically, it's like yeah, and he's like, well, the left
Speaker 2: they're radical, was like, yeah, but what about bringing people
Speaker 2: to That's not even a question I would ask just
Speaker 2: because I would like to focus on policy. But I
Speaker 2: was like, you know, for a lot of people, the
Speaker 2: way they think about politics, and even if the way
Speaker 2: they think about Trump per se, they're like, that's probably
Speaker 2: something I don't really like about Trump. And so for him,
Speaker 2: whenever he gets asked about that and his answer, it
Speaker 2: can be quite revealing. That's kind of what I would
Speaker 2: expect to come out from from a Joe Rogan podcast
Speaker 2: with him, because you know, Rogan is always like, look,
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna you know, he's not he's not a
Speaker 2: technical expert or something. He tries to cut to the
Speaker 2: core of like what this person is all about. And
Speaker 2: I would be curious to see Trump in that in
Speaker 2: that spirit, especially whenever he can't necessarily rely on old tricks.
Speaker 2: And then it really it's up to Joe and how
Speaker 2: he wants to direct the conversation. Yeah, it'd be interesting.
Speaker 4: And I mean, Joe likes to play dumb sometimes.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but he's not.
Speaker 1: He's not, you know, Joe is an intelligent, well read
Speaker 1: person who you know, has a lot of thoughts and
Speaker 1: ideas on a.
Speaker 4: Variety of subjects.
Speaker 1: I guess I would just say, as politicians find this
Speaker 1: terrain to be more fruitful for them and increasingly lean
Speaker 1: into it.
Speaker 4: Over like traditional.
Speaker 1: Media spaces, which makes all the sense in the world
Speaker 1: given the you know, direction of media's fears. It actually
Speaker 1: does put more of an onus on the podcast or
Speaker 1: to study up and think about what, you know, what
Speaker 1: issues actually impact people and ask them difficult questions since
Speaker 1: they're apparently the only ones who are going to have
Speaker 1: the opportunity to. Now the downside of that for them
Speaker 1: individually is that means they'll never.
Speaker 4: Get to get that interview again.
Speaker 1: But you know, is that really the end of the world,
Speaker 1: Because I think no matter who you are, whether you're
Speaker 1: a comedian or cultural figure, or a singer or a
Speaker 1: lifestyle wellness guru or whatever the hell you're doing right,
Speaker 1: you still have if you accept that interview, you still
Speaker 1: have some responsibility to try to probe what are the
Speaker 1: actual positions of this individual, What is the way this
Speaker 1: individual actually thinks. You don't just get to get out
Speaker 1: of jail free pass because you are not a journalist.
Speaker 1: You're a sentient human being, are obviously intelligent enough to have,
Speaker 1: you know, created this successful platform. And so I do
Speaker 1: think because they're leaning more into this strategy. It creates
Speaker 1: more of a responsibility on these podcasters to try to
Speaker 1: rise to.
Speaker 2: Be Well, that's the funny part. I remember him saying
Speaker 2: that in the past. He's like, I don't want to
Speaker 2: do it because I don't want the responsibility.
Speaker 3: He was like, I never wanted to be.
Speaker 2: In a position where I had to be like checking
Speaker 2: people's facts and making sure that what's saying somebody is
Speaker 2: not true.
Speaker 3: He's like, we used to just smoke weed and get.
Speaker 2: Drunk on his podcast and talk shit, and eventually it
Speaker 2: became like a platform source.
Speaker 3: So I totally understand where he's coming from.
Speaker 2: And if he doesn't even want to do it, I
Speaker 2: get that too, especially in the position that he's in.
Speaker 2: I mean, you think about he got see and running
Speaker 2: articles about you and all this other stuff, Like that's
Speaker 2: a nightmare, especially from what I mean, what he wants
Speaker 2: to do is do a show, and he's got an
Speaker 2: amazing club and he just wants to go to everyone.
Speaker 3: And hang out with his friends. I totally sympathize with that.
Speaker 2: So well, see, I'm curious, as you said, Trump could
Speaker 2: just be talking. He could be like mouthing off for
Speaker 2: what he wants and at this point, he's done a
Speaker 2: decent number of these rogans fear type interviews, so we'll
Speaker 2: see if we'll see if it happens. Yeah, I also
Speaker 2: want to see the time thing. That's actually probably the
Speaker 2: most important.
Speaker 1: Right does he give those does he give him the
Speaker 1: full three hours or at least two and.
Speaker 4: A half you know long?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, I think Bernie.
Speaker 1: I want to say Bernie was like two and a half,
Speaker 1: that's my guess it was.
Speaker 3: It was actually one oh seven.
Speaker 9: Wow.
Speaker 3: Really sure?
Speaker 4: That is sure? Yeah, that's too sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess. The last thing I'll say is this
Speaker 1: has been a very concerted strategy, especially from the Trump campaign.
Speaker 1: Like Kamala has done some of these things, but this
Speaker 1: has been a more concerted strategy from the Trump campaign,
Speaker 1: and it really is targeted at young men, which are
Speaker 1: some of the least frequent voters literally, so you know,
Speaker 1: they're they're betting a lot on turning out a group
Speaker 1: of voters, and they're betting more on this strategy than
Speaker 1: they are like a traditional field strategy in that, you know,
Speaker 1: typical campaign like we're going to have offices all over
Speaker 1: the state and we're going to go and knock on
Speaker 1: your door and whatever.
Speaker 4: They're leaning more into this.
Speaker 1: In some ways, they have to because they don't have
Speaker 1: nearly as much money as the Harris campaign does.
Speaker 4: But also I think it.
Speaker 1: Is a tactical belief that this is more effective at
Speaker 1: this point than that traditional door knocking campaign, And you know,
Speaker 1: there may.
Speaker 4: Be something to that.
Speaker 1: They may be correct about that, and they certainly see
Speaker 1: these as like friendly spaces with people are potentially to
Speaker 1: open to him.
Speaker 4: So you know, we're going to find out.
Speaker 1: If those infrequent male voters, young male voters do in
Speaker 1: fact turn out for him on election day, because he's betting.
Speaker 4: A lot on that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very much a dude's rock campaign and I'm
Speaker 2: curious to see if it works.