WEBVTT - 6/20/25: Ro Khanna Flames Schumer On Iran, WH May Use 'TACTICAL NUKES & MORE!

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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<v Speaker 1>and we here at breaking Points, are already thinking of

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<v Speaker 1>ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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<v Speaker 2>We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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<v Speaker 2>it just means the absolute world to have your support.

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<v Speaker 2>But enough with that, let's get to the show.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, everybody, Happy Friday. We've got the whole team here,

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<v Speaker 1>plus special guests. Congressman Rocana, fresh off a THEO Von appearance.

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<v Speaker 3>Great to see Zar, great to say you not quite

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<v Speaker 3>a breaking points appearance, but you know it was a

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<v Speaker 3>good lot.

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<v Speaker 4>This is are you yeah, what are you talking about?

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<v Speaker 2>You get the full team, very rarely the team he's.

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<v Speaker 1>Talking about THEO Von does. It isn't quite as big

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<v Speaker 1>as the Breaking Points appearent, but you know that's very kind,

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<v Speaker 1>you know. So we're gonna talk to the Congressman here

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<v Speaker 1>for a little while. Then he's gonna run and catch

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<v Speaker 1>a flight. There's a bunch of updates with regard to

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<v Speaker 1>Iron and Israel we want to get to. We'll see

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<v Speaker 1>how far we are able to get with that. We've

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<v Speaker 1>also got some Zora on news we might jump on.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got some Obama comments we might get to here

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<v Speaker 1>is she ask the congressman about the Obama comments, and

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<v Speaker 1>then Ryan is turtle Boy joining? Is that a thing

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<v Speaker 1>that's happening?

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<v Speaker 5>Oh you're muted, Ryan, Yes, Producer Griffin says, the Turtle

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<v Speaker 5>Boy will be in the back end of the show.

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<v Speaker 5>So if there's ever been a reason to become a

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<v Speaker 5>paying subscriber, that's the guy.

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<v Speaker 6>I was thinking that when I get off, I've Google

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<v Speaker 6>I heard her boy, I.

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<v Speaker 3>Just have never heard.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't have to mean make sure it's doctor you

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<v Speaker 5>google doctor turtle Boy, not just turtle Boy. He's the

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<v Speaker 5>he's the local Massachusetts reporter who kind of broke the

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<v Speaker 5>Karen Reid's story out into in a national view and

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<v Speaker 5>he's so he's now on taking his victory laps.

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<v Speaker 2>After her acquittal.

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<v Speaker 4>Gotcha.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So lots to get to you in the show.

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<v Speaker 1>So first, Congressman, I wanted to start off by getting

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<v Speaker 1>you to react to a little bit of you and

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<v Speaker 1>just play a little piece of this. Theovan appearance can

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<v Speaker 1>tell us what your you know, what your experience was

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<v Speaker 1>and what he sort of wanted to focus on here.

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<v Speaker 4>I thought, I thought this part was interesting.

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<v Speaker 3>He started off the podcast world run Now you like

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<v Speaker 3>react to yourself on podcasts exactly?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and this is, you know, exclusive, your first reaction

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<v Speaker 1>to you being on So in any case, he wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to start off talking about Ron talking about Gaza. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>about like thirty minutes into the podcast thus far. But

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<v Speaker 1>let's go ahead and pick up with this part and

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<v Speaker 1>then we'll get your reaction.

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<v Speaker 7>It is trumple is ilmly Trump afraid of it?

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<v Speaker 6>Yah.

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<v Speaker 7>I I don't understand that, you know, because Trump certainly

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<v Speaker 7>feels like he's seems he is a guy who does

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<v Speaker 7>not seem afraid to say what he wants to say.

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<v Speaker 8>I don't think I don't know what it is because

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<v Speaker 8>I I want Trump to do the right thing, Like

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<v Speaker 8>I want him to start to end the war in Gaza,

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<v Speaker 8>to actually figure out how we get peace there.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think he could.

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<v Speaker 8>He could if he picks up the phone and he says,

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<v Speaker 8>then yell, you're done, then you know is going to

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<v Speaker 8>stop the bombing. And then you know, I was going

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<v Speaker 8>to say, okay, but we got Jmas. I can't stay

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<v Speaker 8>here with him, and Trump can say, Okay, I'm going

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<v Speaker 8>to help you get rid of Hamas, but you can't

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<v Speaker 8>keep bombing and killing women and children. That's not getting

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<v Speaker 8>rid of Hamas.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, it's freaking crazy, dude.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean it's just like.

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<v Speaker 8>So, you get Egypt, you get Jordan, you get Saudi Arabia.

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<v Speaker 8>I call it the twenty three state solution. You get

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<v Speaker 8>all of those erabors.

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<v Speaker 7>Mississippi, dude, I'll tell you that we can give Mississippi

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<v Speaker 7>to palaes On I've been saying that, for give.

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<v Speaker 1>Mississippi to palestinevonnssolves finds Middle East piece. But Congressman, what

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<v Speaker 1>was your experience and were there any particular moments that

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<v Speaker 1>we should really pay attention to or that you found

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<v Speaker 1>particularly noteworthy.

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<v Speaker 3>I was amazed by his passion, his empathy, his outrage

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<v Speaker 3>with what's going on in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean you could just see it in his voice.

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<v Speaker 3>It was just this utter frustration that the United States

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<v Speaker 3>was complicit in the killing.

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<v Speaker 6>Of women and children.

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<v Speaker 3>And theobon is always someone who takes the side of

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<v Speaker 3>the under and also kind of just reflects American values

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<v Speaker 3>of someone who hasn't thought read every bookings paper.

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<v Speaker 6>He's just like, look, this is wrong.

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<v Speaker 3>And I was also struck by how concerned scare outraging

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<v Speaker 3>was that we were thinking of getting into another more

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<v Speaker 3>in Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>That's so Congress, and that's actually one of the main

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<v Speaker 2>things we wanted to focus on with you is the

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<v Speaker 2>role here of the Democratic Party and of the opposition.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the things that's really rhyming for me going

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<v Speaker 2>back and really thinking about what happened in Iraq is

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<v Speaker 2>I don't see a mobilization of the Democratic establishment on

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<v Speaker 2>the Iran question. You know, we've had Thomas Massey and

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<v Speaker 2>leaders like you who have introduced, you know, the need

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<v Speaker 2>for a declaration or an approval by Congress. I guess

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<v Speaker 2>we can give it to the Bush administration at least

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<v Speaker 2>they went to the links with that. But here the

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<v Speaker 2>Trump administration has taken completely unilateral approach and we have

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<v Speaker 2>not yet seen calls from major Democratic leaders you know

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<v Speaker 2>for this, Yeah, exactly, Like as you say here, what

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<v Speaker 2>does this mean from Senator Schumer, I'm just wondering if

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<v Speaker 2>you could expound on that and the lack of leadership

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<v Speaker 2>right now from the Democratic Party on the Iran war question.

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<v Speaker 3>It's deeply disappointing. This is like the Iraq War moment.

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<v Speaker 3>The Democratic Party should be in unison, screaming from the rooftop,

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<v Speaker 3>we don't want another war in the Middle East. Donald

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<v Speaker 3>Trump won the presidency because he said that the Iraq

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<v Speaker 3>War was a disaster, and Jeb Bush wasn't willing to

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<v Speaker 3>say that. He won over a lot of people who

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<v Speaker 3>previously supported Democrats because he committed that we weren't going

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<v Speaker 3>to get into another war in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 6>We've had Iraq War cheerleaders.

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<v Speaker 3>In our party who ran for president John Kerry, Hillary Clinton,

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<v Speaker 3>John Edwards. It didn't work out so well for them.

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<v Speaker 3>And then we had people who stood opposed to the war,

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<v Speaker 3>like Barack Obama, who did very very well at Bertie Sanders.

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<v Speaker 3>My view is that this is the moment the Democratic

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<v Speaker 3>Party can reclaim the anti war mantle. Obviously, we should

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<v Speaker 3>have unison of Democrats on my War Powers Resolution in

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<v Speaker 3>the House. This isn't even a close call, and we

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<v Speaker 3>should have Senator Schumer instead of saying, oh, I don't know,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe they should strike him.

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<v Speaker 6>Maybe Trump isn't tough enough.

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<v Speaker 3>He should be behind Tim Kaine and saying every Democrat

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<v Speaker 3>needs to oppose this war.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, just from a cynical perspective, it seems like if

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<v Speaker 5>you're a politician looking for future advantage, the play here

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<v Speaker 5>would be, even if you're not against war, would be

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<v Speaker 5>to speak out against war and reap those benefits going forward.

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<v Speaker 5>At the same time, the No King's protests had, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>hundreds of thousands of people around the country. You have

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<v Speaker 5>Democrats saying that he's an authoritarian, that he's a threat

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<v Speaker 5>to democracy. They've been saying that for a very long time.

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<v Speaker 5>How do they lend this idea that Okay, yes, he's

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<v Speaker 5>a threat to democracy's authoritarian tyrant maybe, but I'm okay

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<v Speaker 5>with this war, that this tyrant is going to operate.

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<v Speaker 5>When you talk to people privately, what is holding them

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<v Speaker 5>back from just coming out with a full throated opposition

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<v Speaker 5>to Donald Trump just launching a war against Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, your first point, Garry Ryan, was kay that it's

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<v Speaker 3>not just that we should be opposed to this war,

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<v Speaker 3>but we should be opposed to Donald Trump waking up

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<v Speaker 3>and deciding whether to commit us to a war based

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<v Speaker 3>on the last conversation he had. I mean, everyone should

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<v Speaker 3>be for this coming to Congress, especially if you think

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<v Speaker 3>that Crump has overreached his constitutional authority and consolidated power

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<v Speaker 3>a number of people or they have been itching, some

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<v Speaker 3>of them candidly in the Congress to take out Iran's

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear facilities. And this is something that there are a

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<v Speaker 3>number of Democrats and Republicans that they want to do this,

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<v Speaker 3>and they think magically, Okay, we're going to have a

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<v Speaker 3>military strike against Ferdoh and Iran will not have a

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear bomb and then everything will be peaceful in the

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<v Speaker 3>Middle East. Well, first of all, we know that this

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<v Speaker 3>story has been told before. We're going to have a

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<v Speaker 3>successful military operation. Everything will work out. We took out

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<v Speaker 3>saddamusin then what happened. We got stuck for almost a

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<v Speaker 3>decade in Iraq. We're going to get rid of l

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<v Speaker 3>Kaida in Afghaniskan. Everything will be fine. We got to

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<v Speaker 3>stuck for nearly twenty years in Afghanistan. The idea that

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<v Speaker 3>we can strike for Doh and that Iran isn't going

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<v Speaker 3>to retaliate against American troops in Iraq, that they aren't

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<v Speaker 3>going to retaliate, but counter terrorism against Americans is utter

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<v Speaker 3>naive thinking. It's going to draw us into a conflict

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<v Speaker 3>and for what we don't even know if the bunker

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<v Speaker 3>bombs can destroy the entire Ferdeau site, at best, it's

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<v Speaker 3>going to push Iran back two to three years in

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<v Speaker 3>developing nuclear weapons. And they're going to get then rip

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<v Speaker 3>up the NPT. They're a put involvement in the NPT.

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<v Speaker 3>They're going to push out all inspectors. And we know

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<v Speaker 3>in the past, the Obama deal had it so that

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<v Speaker 3>Iran couldn't enrich beyond.

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<v Speaker 6>Five percent at any place other than the Tans.

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<v Speaker 3>Now they're enriching at sixty percent at Florideaux. We know

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<v Speaker 3>we've had a deal before. Even if you think the

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<v Speaker 3>deal wasn't perfect, it was much much, much better than

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<v Speaker 3>the situation we have now or the situation we will

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<v Speaker 3>have if Iran gets out of the NPT and kicks

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<v Speaker 3>out all the inspectors. So those are just the facts.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know why the Democratic Party isn't bolder. It's

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<v Speaker 3>a symptom not just of being acquiescent to another war.

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<v Speaker 6>It's a symptom of a lack of leadership.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I almost see more conviction on Lindsay Graham

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<v Speaker 3>being like, let's Obama.

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<v Speaker 4>Mean, yeah, I don't right position, that's.

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<v Speaker 9>The worst of all world well, in Congrison, can I

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<v Speaker 9>ask to what extent you assess? I mean, we are

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<v Speaker 9>all looking around and thinking why Democrats, even from the

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<v Speaker 9>cynical perspective that Ryan raised, are you not, you know,

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<v Speaker 9>mustering the same level of opposition that Soccer pointed out

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<v Speaker 9>you used to see during.

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<v Speaker 4>The Iraq War.

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<v Speaker 2>Why is that not happening?

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<v Speaker 9>And to what extent would you attribute that to the

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<v Speaker 9>donor class of the Democratic Party? Do you think that's

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<v Speaker 9>who's in the ear of truck Schumer, stopping him and

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<v Speaker 9>other high profile Democrats from going all in with a

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<v Speaker 9>sense of conviction, first of all on the war powers

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<v Speaker 9>question and then on the question of the war itself.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's the foreign policy hawks in the belt

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<v Speaker 3>Way that people listen to.

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<v Speaker 6>I'm sure there is.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, Schumer wasn't for the Obama nuclear deal.

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<v Speaker 6>So Obama neclearion. He was one of the cheerleaders for

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<v Speaker 6>the war in Iraq.

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<v Speaker 3>Like, how are these people still around with credibility of

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<v Speaker 3>Ford policy?

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<v Speaker 6>Why should we care at all?

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<v Speaker 4>Should he resign.

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<v Speaker 6>Another war in the Middle East?

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<v Speaker 1>Like why did you think he resigned? Congressman? At this point, it.

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<v Speaker 6>Almost doesn't matter.

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<v Speaker 3>He should be seen as totally irrelevant, like the average

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<v Speaker 3>person on the street had more.

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<v Speaker 6>Common sense at the Middle East than Chuck Schumer.

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<v Speaker 3>Chuck Schumer's record on the Middle East is opposing Obama Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>Deal is cheerleading George W. Bush to get into a

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<v Speaker 3>war in ira is now having nonsensical statements about Tim

0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:09.880
<v Speaker 3>Kaine's war power resolution.

0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.840
<v Speaker 6>Why does he matter on this debate? What does matter?

0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:13.959
<v Speaker 1>You know?

0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:16.560
<v Speaker 3>People say, oh, go on podcasts, go on theovon, and

0:11:16.559 --> 0:11:19.720
<v Speaker 3>they're usually thinking about it from an electoral perspective, And

0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:21.480
<v Speaker 3>of course they're right that we should be going on

0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:23.040
<v Speaker 3>these podcasts. But you know why they should go on

0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:27.280
<v Speaker 3>theovon because Deal levonn talks to truck drivers and talks

0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:32.040
<v Speaker 3>to folks or working in construction and industry and young

0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:36.319
<v Speaker 3>kids or recent college graduates, and he's reflecting what most

0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:39.520
<v Speaker 3>Americans are thinking about issues. Agree with him or not,

0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:43.760
<v Speaker 3>And he is saying overwhelmingly, people don't want another war.

0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:46.000
<v Speaker 3>They're afraid that they may get called up and have

0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:49.600
<v Speaker 3>to serve in Iran. They're concerned about the costs. They're

0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:52.040
<v Speaker 3>wondering why we're not spending that money in time in

0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.040
<v Speaker 3>the United States. And I feel like instead of listening

0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:57.400
<v Speaker 3>to the people at Basing Chuck sure where maybe this

0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:00.360
<v Speaker 3>party should be listening to people who are talking to

0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:03.960
<v Speaker 3>theobon and we do much better in terms of building

0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:07.200
<v Speaker 3>a coalition, and we one need these ridiculous twenty million

0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:08.760
<v Speaker 3>consultant studies that are going.

0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:11.160
<v Speaker 6>To go to the same people that are advising Chuck Schumer.

0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:13.640
<v Speaker 1>Unbelievable And I wanted to ask you about this though.

0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:17.120
<v Speaker 1>We've got Thomas Massey sponsored the War Power Resolution. You're

0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.199
<v Speaker 1>one of the you know, the lead co sponsors here.

0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:21.760
<v Speaker 1>There's no other Republicans on it though, So for all

0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:23.800
<v Speaker 1>the talk of America, first, you know the split in

0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:26.959
<v Speaker 1>MAGA et cetera. And there's zero Republicans on the Senate

0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.439
<v Speaker 1>version of it. So what is the reluctance here? What's

0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:29.840
<v Speaker 1>going on?

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:31.439
<v Speaker 6>You're right?

0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:33.280
<v Speaker 3>I mean at the base of MAGA, I would say

0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:35.200
<v Speaker 3>at least a third of them don't want this war.

0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.080
<v Speaker 3>And you have very outspoken people like Tucker Carlton, like

0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:41.560
<v Speaker 3>Steve Bannon, like marsh Leay Taylor Green. What they're saying.

0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:44.400
<v Speaker 3>The reason they're giving for us for not getting on

0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:47.280
<v Speaker 3>this War Power Resolution as well, there's not a war. Well,

0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.360
<v Speaker 3>don't you think traders should weigh in before there's a war.

0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:52.080
<v Speaker 4>I mean, also there is a war.

0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:54.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's just a nonsense way of thinking about it,

0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:56.080
<v Speaker 1>but go ahead, yeah.

0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:58.360
<v Speaker 3>I mean they're saying, well, we haven't struck Iran yet,

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:01.840
<v Speaker 3>that the United States hasn't tried now. Ted Cruz admitted

0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:05.240
<v Speaker 3>on that Pepper Carlton tape that the clip that we

0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:10.840
<v Speaker 3>are helping Israel in the bombing of a run. But

0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:13.880
<v Speaker 3>the point is that they're trying to avoid the issue

0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:16.400
<v Speaker 3>because they don't want to get in the cross heres

0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:19.880
<v Speaker 3>of Donald Trump. I believe that the pressure is going

0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:21.600
<v Speaker 3>to build on the MAGA base for some of these

0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:25.880
<v Speaker 3>Republicans to break and look, people say it doesn't matter.

0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:28.440
<v Speaker 3>I do think the fact that Trump is saying now,

0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:32.079
<v Speaker 3>I'm going to wait two weeks is partly a recognition

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:34.480
<v Speaker 3>that the bunker bombs may not even achieve the objective.

0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:35.679
<v Speaker 6>But it's also.

0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:37.920
<v Speaker 3>Partly a recognition that a lot of the MAGA base

0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:40.600
<v Speaker 3>is upset and he's hearing the anti war sentiment. And

0:13:40.800 --> 0:13:45.720
<v Speaker 3>if the Democratic Party was unified in our opposition, maybe

0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:48.240
<v Speaker 3>we could actually prevent this war. I mean, it would

0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:52.120
<v Speaker 3>influence Donald Trump, who's so susceptible to where public opinion

0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:55.240
<v Speaker 3>is it is not just a lack of leadership for

0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:58.680
<v Speaker 3>how do we win? It's an actual moral moment. Like

0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:02.800
<v Speaker 3>you're in Congress for these big decisions, and the vast

0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:04.959
<v Speaker 3>majority of members of Congress have just been solid.

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:07.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, go ahead, Ryan.

0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:10.080
<v Speaker 5>So, just speaking of going on THEO Vaughn, have you

0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:14.360
<v Speaker 5>reached out all to Bannon or Tucker Carlson to appear

0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:16.839
<v Speaker 5>on their program, because that seems like the kind of

0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:20.240
<v Speaker 5>seal that hasn't been hasn't been broken yet. But if

0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:23.640
<v Speaker 5>you listen to you know, as you have been lately,

0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:25.680
<v Speaker 5>a lot of you know, Tucker Carlson, like you know,

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:28.520
<v Speaker 5>eighty percent of the time he's making he's making a

0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:31.520
<v Speaker 5>lot of sense. Then he goes then yeah.

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.200
<v Speaker 3>Tucker, and on some of the clips, I'm just concidered

0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:35.440
<v Speaker 3>b I go on, He's going to start asking me

0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:39.200
<v Speaker 3>the population of every country.

0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 2>Do your job and study. I have no sympathy.

0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:45.120
<v Speaker 4>You can handle that a little better, guy.

0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:46.600
<v Speaker 5>But also if you say, look, I don't want to

0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:51.600
<v Speaker 5>invade that country, therefore I don't need to know their population,

0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:54.840
<v Speaker 5>but you know, I do.

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:55.920
<v Speaker 6>Think we need to.

0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:59.640
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I'd be open to going on. But more importantly,

0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:04.400
<v Speaker 3>I think we need to be sharing their clubs, sharing

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.680
<v Speaker 3>what they're saying. Again, I was on CNN and they

0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.240
<v Speaker 3>thought they had a gotcha question saying, oh, that means

0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:13.880
<v Speaker 3>you agree with Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlton, And yes

0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:14.600
<v Speaker 3>it does.

0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:17.640
<v Speaker 6>On this issue, I agree with them, and.

0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:20.920
<v Speaker 3>I'm hoping that they actually can convince some of the

0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:22.080
<v Speaker 3>Republicans to get.

0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 2>On one of the things. Congressmen, I know you're on

0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:26.360
<v Speaker 2>the Senate Armed Services Committee, so maybe you can speak

0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:28.600
<v Speaker 2>a little bit to this. There has been now open

0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:31.280
<v Speaker 2>questioning by Donald Trump and actually a lot in the

0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:35.320
<v Speaker 2>open source environment as to whether these massive ordinance penetrators

0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:38.920
<v Speaker 2>could even accomplish the goal of taking out the fourdoh

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 2>nuclear facility. So I'm wondering, you know, based on your

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 2>own knowledge, I'm sure you've said in briefings and others,

0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:47.400
<v Speaker 2>what your assessment of this easy strike which is being

0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:51.360
<v Speaker 2>pushed by the Sentcom Commander Carilla, and what the reality

0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:52.760
<v Speaker 2>of something like that could look like?

0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 6>Well, based on.

0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:58.960
<v Speaker 3>Public information, I don't know, and I don't think most

0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:02.560
<v Speaker 3>people knows the real issue. I mean, first of all,

0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.200
<v Speaker 3>maybe it's fifty to fifty over, but it could be

0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:09.360
<v Speaker 3>too deep. Maybe we hit some of it, but don't

0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:12.360
<v Speaker 3>get all of it. And the reality is the best

0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:14.520
<v Speaker 3>case scenario that we hit all of it. We don't

0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 3>know how widespread Iran's nuclear capability is. We know that

0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:22.560
<v Speaker 3>they have scientists who can rebuild it. We know they

0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.680
<v Speaker 3>have spare centrifuges. You're not going to destroy all of it,

0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:28.960
<v Speaker 3>and we know that within a year to three years

0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.800
<v Speaker 3>they can start to rebuild their nuclear sites. Then why

0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:35.560
<v Speaker 3>because they're going to then kick out the inspectors. We

0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:38.720
<v Speaker 3>won't even know where they're building it. And the lesson

0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:41.600
<v Speaker 3>they'll draw is the lesson that Pakistan and North Korean

0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.560
<v Speaker 3>drove that if you have nuclear bomb you're safe from

0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.480
<v Speaker 3>American invasion. If you don't, you could be Livia, Iraq,

0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 3>or Afghanistan or Iran. The logic on this makes makes

0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:55.320
<v Speaker 3>no sense for us to get and especially when we

0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 3>had a deal where Iran was committed to less than

0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.480
<v Speaker 3>five percent in rich Even if they were cheating, let's

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:03.480
<v Speaker 3>say they were at ten percent fifty percent, they weren't

0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:07.760
<v Speaker 3>at sixty percent, and so the effort needs to be

0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:08.960
<v Speaker 3>to get a deal.

0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:10.920
<v Speaker 6>I was one of the Democrats, so I got criticized

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:12.120
<v Speaker 6>for this too. I don't make every call.

0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:12.280
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:14.840
<v Speaker 3>I was cheering Donald Trump when he said let's get

0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:17.560
<v Speaker 3>a deal Trump. Schumer was saying, oh, you're making side

0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:19.639
<v Speaker 3>deals with a rod. I was like, great, let him

0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:20.360
<v Speaker 3>make a deal.

0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:20.720
<v Speaker 6>With it, right.

0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:24.840
<v Speaker 1>Taco Trump making me no, no, no, let him let

0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:25.159
<v Speaker 1>him do.

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:28.720
<v Speaker 2>Taco might be one of the most destructive like things

0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:30.920
<v Speaker 2>that's ever happened to Wall Street.

0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:33.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, horrible, horrible, All right, Congress, I know we got

0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:35.399
<v Speaker 1>to let you go. Thank you so much for jumping

0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.000
<v Speaker 1>on this morning. It's almost craz photography and get your insights.

0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:40.000
<v Speaker 2>Thank you, We appreciate it.

0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:40.520
<v Speaker 6>Take care.

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.440
<v Speaker 1>So he brought up the two weeks thing. The White

0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:49.560
<v Speaker 1>House is floating. Caroline Lovitt said, like, oh, Trump's going

0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 1>to decide in the next two weeks. I mean, I

0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:53.000
<v Speaker 1>just like, I don't know what do you guys make

0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:55.040
<v Speaker 1>of it, because I just you can't trust anything these

0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:58.040
<v Speaker 1>people say. It could be another faint to just, you know,

0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:02.359
<v Speaker 1>let the Iranian sort of relax again before they bomb

0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:03.200
<v Speaker 1>them in five minutes.

0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:04.440
<v Speaker 4>I don't know what's yours.

0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:07.119
<v Speaker 2>What I think And this is based on a little

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 2>bit of some people I've had it to is and

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.440
<v Speaker 2>at first time he's at the stage. What we're dealing with.

0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:15.320
<v Speaker 2>This is not a normal White House. We are basically

0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:18.600
<v Speaker 2>in the court of Versailles, all right. No one can

0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.840
<v Speaker 2>criticize the legitimacy of the monarch. So that's why, you know,

0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:25.320
<v Speaker 2>Steve Bannon and Tucker have to target the neo cons

0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:28.239
<v Speaker 2>who were talking with him. Everything is about gaining the

0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:30.840
<v Speaker 2>audience of the king and of the ear of the king.

0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:33.280
<v Speaker 2>And the king can vacillate from time to time, but

0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:36.520
<v Speaker 2>his own legitimacy of the throne cannot be called into question.

0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:38.960
<v Speaker 2>He's all powerful and he's all knowing. So what's really

0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.240
<v Speaker 2>happened I think over the last couple of days is

0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:46.119
<v Speaker 2>I can say equivocally the Bannon lunch was a pivotal moment.

0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:49.520
<v Speaker 2>So Steve Bannon was yesterday at the White House, had

0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:52.159
<v Speaker 2>lunch with Donald Trump. I don't think he said anything

0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:56.159
<v Speaker 2>different in his private comments than he did publicly. So

0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 2>that's very encouraging, and that did lead to the so

0:18:58.720 --> 0:18:59.840
<v Speaker 2>called two week debt.

0:18:59.880 --> 0:19:00.000
<v Speaker 6>Life.

0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:03.000
<v Speaker 2>Now, if it were up to Donald Trump, I'm actually

0:19:03.040 --> 0:19:06.240
<v Speaker 2>relatively confident that we would be heading towards some sort

0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:10.520
<v Speaker 2>of diplomatic solution. The problem is, of course, the Israeli

0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:14.280
<v Speaker 2>question on the side, because what Israel now has is

0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:18.160
<v Speaker 2>two weeks to mount the pressure campaign of the century.

0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.720
<v Speaker 2>First and foremost, there's a credible report out today from

0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:25.040
<v Speaker 2>the Iranian Foreign minister who's in Geneva to speak with

0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:28.280
<v Speaker 2>the European foreign ministers, that somebody tried to kill him,

0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:32.000
<v Speaker 2>possibly even the Israelis and or advisors around them. Remember,

0:19:32.040 --> 0:19:34.520
<v Speaker 2>they already took out one of the negotiators who spoke

0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.480
<v Speaker 2>with Steve Wikoff. There's also crystal maybe you can pull

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:41.040
<v Speaker 2>this up. I tweeted it out from the Times of Israel,

0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:45.439
<v Speaker 2>the Israeli Foreign the Israeli Defense Minister today said he

0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:49.640
<v Speaker 2>has officially greenlit strikes on the regime. We're not even

0:19:49.680 --> 0:19:53.760
<v Speaker 2>talking specifically about nuclear facilities. They are in the next

0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:57.200
<v Speaker 2>two weeks basically have a free military hand to ramp

0:19:57.280 --> 0:20:01.119
<v Speaker 2>up military strikes on the Iranian regime and specifically to

0:20:01.160 --> 0:20:04.199
<v Speaker 2>try to kill all of the people around the Ayatola. So,

0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:06.680
<v Speaker 2>like I said, if it were just up to Donald Trump,

0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:09.320
<v Speaker 2>I genuinely do believe we would be heading to this.

0:20:09.520 --> 0:20:11.720
<v Speaker 2>It does seem that he's been spooked a bit by

0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:14.760
<v Speaker 2>some of these reports and questioning the scentcom intelligence as

0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:17.320
<v Speaker 2>to whether the fod Oho facility really could be taken

0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:21.600
<v Speaker 2>out by the US military. But Israel really could, you know,

0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:23.560
<v Speaker 2>really could force our hand. Yeah, you could see it

0:20:23.800 --> 0:20:27.199
<v Speaker 2>right there. Katz instructs the IDF to quote destabilize the

0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:32.359
<v Speaker 2>Iranian regime with intensified air strikes. And Israel they're not

0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:34.560
<v Speaker 2>doing well right now. I mean, I know that sounds

0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:37.320
<v Speaker 2>crazy to say, because of all their propaganda, they're running

0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:40.800
<v Speaker 2>out of interceptors. The war is costing Israel hundreds of

0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.639
<v Speaker 2>millions of dollars per day, per the Wall Street Journal.

0:20:43.800 --> 0:20:48.280
<v Speaker 2>Commercial air shutdown is devastating the economy. Nobody's going to work.

0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:50.800
<v Speaker 2>You know, how can you work when every single night

0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:54.000
<v Speaker 2>you're spending in a bomb shelter looking at your phone.

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:57.280
<v Speaker 2>So their society is in chaos. Every single time one

0:20:57.280 --> 0:20:59.800
<v Speaker 2>of those interceptor gets fired, it's seven hundred thousand to

0:20:59.800 --> 0:21:02.800
<v Speaker 2>two million dollars. The flight cost of an F thirty

0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:05.040
<v Speaker 2>five is, like, I don't even know, thirty five thousand

0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:08.240
<v Speaker 2>dollars per hour. They're going bankrupt, you know, and will,

0:21:08.480 --> 0:21:11.359
<v Speaker 2>according to their own former like bank official I was

0:21:11.359 --> 0:21:14.800
<v Speaker 2>reading this morning, we're looking at at a bill well

0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:18.280
<v Speaker 2>over twelve billion a single month of the war in Iran,

0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:20.040
<v Speaker 2>which no, not a lot for US, but that's a

0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:22.919
<v Speaker 2>lot over for them. So I would say like we

0:21:23.040 --> 0:21:25.880
<v Speaker 2>have had a factional victory in getting to the two

0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 2>week period. But obviously I really don't think Trump is

0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:33.560
<v Speaker 2>the principal actor here, especially because the Iranians won't meet

0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:36.200
<v Speaker 2>with us. They're meeting right now with the Europeans. It's

0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:38.679
<v Speaker 2>the Israelis who are going to try to destabilize, and

0:21:38.720 --> 0:21:41.280
<v Speaker 2>then it's really Trump and to the extent that he

0:21:41.359 --> 0:21:44.399
<v Speaker 2>wants to insert himself as the primary policy maker in

0:21:44.440 --> 0:21:45.080
<v Speaker 2>this process.

0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:48.800
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, and I think, sorry curious and your guys to

0:21:49.000 --> 0:21:51.159
<v Speaker 5>take on this, but like if fifty years from now

0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:53.639
<v Speaker 5>when they look back at kind of how the conflict

0:21:53.960 --> 0:21:56.600
<v Speaker 5>overall between the United States and the up and coming

0:21:56.640 --> 0:22:01.560
<v Speaker 5>powers played out, the US decision based on pressure from

0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:05.680
<v Speaker 5>the military industrial complex to go into this like Rolls

0:22:05.760 --> 0:22:09.439
<v Speaker 5>Royce style approach to and literally Rolls Royce is one

0:22:09.440 --> 0:22:13.679
<v Speaker 5>of the main contractors for US weapons, to make it

0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:18.480
<v Speaker 5>so that you have these this massively high margin industry

0:22:18.840 --> 0:22:24.480
<v Speaker 5>that is making lots of people very rich, despite the

0:22:24.480 --> 0:22:29.000
<v Speaker 5>fact that strategically the numbers are just idiotic. In other words,

0:22:29.320 --> 0:22:31.560
<v Speaker 5>if you're spending seven hundred thousand to two million dollars

0:22:31.560 --> 0:22:35.960
<v Speaker 5>on an interceptor against a missile that costs your adversary

0:22:36.000 --> 0:22:39.199
<v Speaker 5>ten thousand or fifty thousand dollars to put together. In

0:22:39.240 --> 0:22:42.159
<v Speaker 5>the case of Yemen, the orders of magnitude or were

0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:46.000
<v Speaker 5>even further apart. Yes, we're a couple, were like a

0:22:46.040 --> 0:22:49.959
<v Speaker 5>week plus into this, imagine a year out like It's

0:22:50.480 --> 0:22:54.439
<v Speaker 5>as if nobody did the math on this. But the

0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:57.479
<v Speaker 5>Israelis they did do the math, and the math for

0:22:57.520 --> 0:23:01.159
<v Speaker 5>them is, we cannot afford this. We also cannot do

0:23:01.200 --> 0:23:04.720
<v Speaker 5>it ourselves militarily, but the United States can afford it

0:23:05.119 --> 0:23:07.760
<v Speaker 5>at least in the medium term. And the United States

0:23:07.800 --> 0:23:10.840
<v Speaker 5>can do it militarily. So they did the math, and

0:23:11.000 --> 0:23:13.320
<v Speaker 5>they didn't conclude, well, I guess we shouldn't do this.

0:23:13.400 --> 0:23:16.199
<v Speaker 5>They concluded, let's do this and just bank on the

0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:18.119
<v Speaker 5>fact that the United States is going to come in

0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:22.320
<v Speaker 5>behind us. That's a small conflict between these two countries,

0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:26.240
<v Speaker 5>Israel and Iran. If there is ever a bigger conflict,

0:23:26.800 --> 0:23:29.240
<v Speaker 5>you could just see how long the United States would

0:23:29.240 --> 0:23:32.640
<v Speaker 5>be able to carry on before it's it is itself

0:23:33.600 --> 0:23:36.919
<v Speaker 5>bankrupt isn't the right word, but just out of ammunition,

0:23:37.040 --> 0:23:38.440
<v Speaker 5>we can give the ammunition.

0:23:38.000 --> 0:23:40.240
<v Speaker 1>Costs that actually let me find that.

0:23:40.359 --> 0:23:43.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, this is a tried and true thing

0:23:43.160 --> 0:23:46.720
<v Speaker 2>about countries that always you know, one of the for example,

0:23:46.880 --> 0:23:49.480
<v Speaker 2>if you there's a great book behind me which is

0:23:49.480 --> 0:23:52.760
<v Speaker 2>about the ammunition shortage during World War One, and the

0:23:52.800 --> 0:23:55.720
<v Speaker 2>amount of ammunition they used in the first month of

0:23:55.760 --> 0:23:57.760
<v Speaker 2>the war is what they projected they were going to

0:23:57.800 --> 0:23:59.640
<v Speaker 2>have to use for the entire war. And so after

0:23:59.720 --> 0:24:01.919
<v Speaker 2>like three weeks they're like, oh shit, They're like now what,

0:24:02.320 --> 0:24:03.720
<v Speaker 2>and they're like, you know what you do? You have

0:24:03.760 --> 0:24:05.280
<v Speaker 2>to go into total war. You have to lock down

0:24:05.320 --> 0:24:07.520
<v Speaker 2>your economy, you have to seize control of all of

0:24:07.520 --> 0:24:10.800
<v Speaker 2>the industry and basically marshal and mobilize to produce as

0:24:10.840 --> 0:24:14.000
<v Speaker 2>much as humanly possible, and you will literally go bankrupt,

0:24:14.080 --> 0:24:18.240
<v Speaker 2>as all of the European great powers did, basically became subservient,

0:24:18.480 --> 0:24:22.240
<v Speaker 2>you know, bank bank loaners to the United States of America.

0:24:22.280 --> 0:24:25.040
<v Speaker 2>That's the entire story behind the fall of the British Empire.

0:24:25.400 --> 0:24:27.920
<v Speaker 2>So that is a very very good lesson. Now I'm

0:24:27.960 --> 0:24:29.600
<v Speaker 2>not saying it can't be done, but the point is

0:24:29.600 --> 0:24:32.800
<v Speaker 2>is that you have to marshal your entire society towards it.

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:34.919
<v Speaker 2>But you're exactly right, Ryan. From what I've read, these

0:24:35.040 --> 0:24:36.760
<v Speaker 2>Raelies are like, yeah, we knew we couldn't afford it.

0:24:36.760 --> 0:24:38.159
<v Speaker 2>We're just going to get America to pay for it,

0:24:38.480 --> 0:24:39.920
<v Speaker 2>and that's the problem.

0:24:40.040 --> 0:24:41.520
<v Speaker 4>Usually a pretty safe bet put it.

0:24:41.480 --> 0:24:44.360
<v Speaker 2>On the visa. Yeah, they're right though. See that's the thing.

0:24:44.480 --> 0:24:47.040
<v Speaker 2>At the end of the day, they are right. And

0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:49.439
<v Speaker 2>this is why I'm still pessimist, even though I do

0:24:49.520 --> 0:24:51.560
<v Speaker 2>think we have won a victory people who want to,

0:24:52.040 --> 0:24:54.919
<v Speaker 2>you know, to avoid this going all out. Yet I

0:24:54.960 --> 0:24:57.040
<v Speaker 2>do think we have one sum of a victory and

0:24:57.080 --> 0:24:59.679
<v Speaker 2>we may still have a chance. Right the Europeans are

0:24:59.680 --> 0:25:01.600
<v Speaker 2>meeting all of them. But I would still put it

0:25:01.640 --> 0:25:06.520
<v Speaker 2>around twenty five thirty percent, simply because of unrestrained Israeli

0:25:06.560 --> 0:25:09.000
<v Speaker 2>military action. There's a story out this morning from the

0:25:09.000 --> 0:25:12.080
<v Speaker 2>New York Times. The US intelligence assesses that there's two

0:25:12.160 --> 0:25:15.320
<v Speaker 2>scenarios right now where Iron goes for a nuclear bob.

0:25:15.400 --> 0:25:18.440
<v Speaker 2>One is killed the Iatola. Two is the US military

0:25:18.600 --> 0:25:22.360
<v Speaker 2>strikes four doo. Well, you know what is the Israeli

0:25:22.480 --> 0:25:24.960
<v Speaker 2>option there? For they're going to try and kill the Ayatola.

0:25:25.320 --> 0:25:28.520
<v Speaker 2>Just yesterday they hit a bunker in which the Iatola

0:25:28.680 --> 0:25:31.560
<v Speaker 2>was thought to be in. Now the ostensible target was

0:25:31.600 --> 0:25:34.600
<v Speaker 2>one of the Iatola's quote advisors. He's survived, by the way,

0:25:34.960 --> 0:25:38.360
<v Speaker 2>at least according to the Iranians. But that's where things are,

0:25:38.400 --> 0:25:41.040
<v Speaker 2>like you see the IDF action. And also they can

0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:43.520
<v Speaker 2>do math too, Ryan, they can't afford this shit for

0:25:43.800 --> 0:25:46.600
<v Speaker 2>too much longer. You know, already there are you know,

0:25:46.680 --> 0:25:50.840
<v Speaker 2>prioritizing their interceptors. Remember the censorship blackout in Israel is real.

0:25:50.880 --> 0:25:53.280
<v Speaker 2>We have no idea what is being hit or not.

0:25:53.359 --> 0:25:55.680
<v Speaker 2>And there's a reason for that, and it's because these

0:25:55.760 --> 0:26:00.159
<v Speaker 2>they are now having to prioritize maybe military interceptors, but

0:26:00.160 --> 0:26:02.240
<v Speaker 2>they have to let civilians get hit, right, So you're

0:26:02.240 --> 0:26:06.440
<v Speaker 2>gonna start to see the death toll rack up trade off. Sorry,

0:26:06.520 --> 0:26:10.880
<v Speaker 2>I would, I forgot that. I'm not talking about these

0:26:14.560 --> 0:26:16.480
<v Speaker 2>the most moral army in the world would never make

0:26:16.560 --> 0:26:21.000
<v Speaker 2>that decision. But that's my point is the Israelis are

0:26:21.320 --> 0:26:25.880
<v Speaker 2>the these Reelis are the most aggressive, you know actor

0:26:26.359 --> 0:26:30.520
<v Speaker 2>in this and they just have such an incredible ability

0:26:30.560 --> 0:26:34.719
<v Speaker 2>to shape events without being restrained by US policy shape events.

0:26:34.760 --> 0:26:39.440
<v Speaker 2>That's very okay, I mean I know what I'm saying.

0:26:39.480 --> 0:26:41.640
<v Speaker 2>They can just they can just do whatever they want

0:26:41.680 --> 0:26:44.560
<v Speaker 2>to do and master Trump and does not pick up

0:26:44.560 --> 0:26:48.159
<v Speaker 2>the phone. I mean, it's like the one there's But this.

0:26:48.040 --> 0:26:49.800
<v Speaker 1>Is Pobe's claim to fame is that he knows how

0:26:49.840 --> 0:26:51.800
<v Speaker 1>to work is over and it's freaking true.

0:26:52.119 --> 0:26:53.120
<v Speaker 4>I mean, he is one of us.

0:26:53.200 --> 0:26:53.680
<v Speaker 6>He is an.

0:26:53.560 --> 0:26:55.440
<v Speaker 2>American, He's born in Philadelphia.

0:26:55.480 --> 0:26:56.280
<v Speaker 6>Okay, So I.

0:26:56.440 --> 0:26:59.320
<v Speaker 4>Really want to go Emily, Emily, what are you? What

0:26:59.359 --> 0:26:59.840
<v Speaker 4>are your thoughts?

0:26:59.880 --> 0:27:01.720
<v Speaker 1>Like are you what are you hearing? And what are

0:27:02.000 --> 0:27:03.520
<v Speaker 1>your thoughts on where we stand right now?

0:27:03.840 --> 0:27:06.600
<v Speaker 9>Well, I think actually Sager just did a little like

0:27:06.840 --> 0:27:10.040
<v Speaker 9>very helpful reporting by saying, having talked to folks, he

0:27:10.119 --> 0:27:13.719
<v Speaker 9>thinks that ban in lunch was significant because there's a

0:27:13.800 --> 0:27:17.720
<v Speaker 9>real question as to whether the two weeks is cold water,

0:27:18.200 --> 0:27:20.359
<v Speaker 9>whether it is on you know, sort of the lust

0:27:20.600 --> 0:27:26.680
<v Speaker 9>for another interventionist conflict, or is it a negotiating tactic

0:27:26.800 --> 0:27:29.159
<v Speaker 9>where Trump is, as you said at the start of

0:27:29.200 --> 0:27:31.119
<v Speaker 9>the show, Crystal, giving the two week window and then

0:27:31.160 --> 0:27:33.400
<v Speaker 9>immediately going to move the next day or the day

0:27:33.440 --> 0:27:36.200
<v Speaker 9>after something like that. But everything that we've just laid

0:27:36.240 --> 0:27:40.800
<v Speaker 9>out about the costs and about the sort of timeline

0:27:41.320 --> 0:27:46.159
<v Speaker 9>tells me two weeks is most likely going to be

0:27:46.200 --> 0:27:48.119
<v Speaker 9>two days in some respect or another. I mean, I

0:27:48.160 --> 0:27:51.000
<v Speaker 9>just I think the cold weeks feels like I think

0:27:51.000 --> 0:27:54.200
<v Speaker 9>it feels like a sort of last ditch, helpful dose

0:27:54.320 --> 0:27:58.000
<v Speaker 9>of cold water. But the machine has been turned on

0:27:58.400 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 9>and it's lurching towards the conflict. I mean, at this point,

0:28:02.040 --> 0:28:05.840
<v Speaker 9>it feels like turning the Titanic around to do so.

0:28:06.359 --> 0:28:09.280
<v Speaker 9>The two weeks, I agree with Sager, is obviously better

0:28:09.320 --> 0:28:11.640
<v Speaker 9>than you know, not having.

0:28:11.320 --> 0:28:13.440
<v Speaker 1>Us being at work, you know, directly right now.

0:28:13.480 --> 0:28:16.160
<v Speaker 4>But yeah, right, I mean, but for all those reasons, it's.

0:28:16.000 --> 0:28:19.040
<v Speaker 1>Like I'm very cognizant of the fact that, first of all,

0:28:19.160 --> 0:28:22.440
<v Speaker 1>at least according to the Trump administration, you know, the

0:28:22.560 --> 0:28:25.600
<v Speaker 1>last movements towards diplomatic negotiations were.

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:27.080
<v Speaker 4>Just a ruse. So there's that.

0:28:27.520 --> 0:28:31.119
<v Speaker 1>There also previously were these reports out that effectively the

0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:36.159
<v Speaker 1>plan was to give Ran one final deal ultimatum that

0:28:36.240 --> 0:28:38.400
<v Speaker 1>contains in it the sort of poison pills that we

0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:41.520
<v Speaker 1>know will make it, you know, guaranteed that the Iranians

0:28:41.520 --> 0:28:44.200
<v Speaker 1>won't take it. Not to mention, if you're the Iranians

0:28:44.240 --> 0:28:47.520
<v Speaker 1>at this point, how can you negotiate with these people?

0:28:47.960 --> 0:28:50.960
<v Speaker 1>Like on every level, not only did you already negotiate

0:28:50.960 --> 0:28:52.800
<v Speaker 1>a deal with them that they just were like, yeah, well,

0:28:52.920 --> 0:28:55.800
<v Speaker 1>we're not going to do that anymore. But then they're

0:28:55.840 --> 0:28:58.440
<v Speaker 1>broadcasting to the world that like, yeah, we pretended we

0:28:58.440 --> 0:29:00.360
<v Speaker 1>were going to go forward with these negotiations. We were

0:29:00.360 --> 0:29:02.920
<v Speaker 1>just tricking you so that you could be attacked and destroyed.

0:29:03.400 --> 0:29:06.120
<v Speaker 9>So Iranian nationalism is mounting because.

0:29:05.880 --> 0:29:07.560
<v Speaker 4>Of all of that, Oh yeah, definitely.

0:29:07.680 --> 0:29:09.440
<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah. By the way, they took to the streets

0:29:09.480 --> 0:29:13.560
<v Speaker 2>on Friday, and actually across the Muslim world, Friday prayers

0:29:13.560 --> 0:29:17.480
<v Speaker 2>have reportedly been like overwhelming in their support for the Iranians,

0:29:17.560 --> 0:29:22.200
<v Speaker 2>even amongst the Sunni populations, which that's hard to do. Yeah,

0:29:22.280 --> 0:29:23.840
<v Speaker 2>for for everybody out there.

0:29:23.960 --> 0:29:26.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean that's what you know. Sorab and Trita have

0:29:26.280 --> 0:29:29.640
<v Speaker 1>been telling us. They've you know, they're seeing unfold this

0:29:29.760 --> 0:29:30.720
<v Speaker 1>rally around the I mean.

0:29:30.640 --> 0:29:33.640
<v Speaker 4>It's entirely predictable. It's entirely predictable.

0:29:33.680 --> 0:29:35.840
<v Speaker 1>Think about us after nine to eleven, right, George Wish

0:29:35.880 --> 0:29:38.280
<v Speaker 1>had like a ninety percent approval rating, and I was like, yes,

0:29:38.400 --> 0:29:38.800
<v Speaker 1>let's go.

0:29:39.880 --> 0:29:41.360
<v Speaker 4>So of course that's going to happen.

0:29:41.840 --> 0:29:44.720
<v Speaker 1>And I just you know, obviously the space for negotiating

0:29:44.760 --> 0:29:48.840
<v Speaker 1>a deal has dramatically, dramatically closed. And then to your point,

0:29:48.840 --> 0:29:53.560
<v Speaker 1>Cyber like, you have this incredibly nefarious actor in Netanyahu

0:29:54.240 --> 0:29:56.800
<v Speaker 1>who you can't put anything past this guy in terms

0:29:56.840 --> 0:29:59.560
<v Speaker 1>of what he's willing to do to make sure that

0:29:59.640 --> 0:30:02.840
<v Speaker 1>working to be there to help him effactuate the plans

0:30:02.840 --> 0:30:05.480
<v Speaker 1>that he has had for decades at this point.

0:30:05.800 --> 0:30:07.720
<v Speaker 4>So it's you know, precarious.

0:30:07.800 --> 0:30:13.160
<v Speaker 1>Is like the probably like lowest nicest thing I could

0:30:13.200 --> 0:30:14.479
<v Speaker 1>say about where we sit right now.

0:30:14.520 --> 0:30:15.560
<v Speaker 4>It's really quite dire.

0:30:15.920 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's not good until I well go ahead, Ryan,

0:30:18.640 --> 0:30:20.480
<v Speaker 5>just real quickly to respond to what Chrystal said, I

0:30:20.480 --> 0:30:23.880
<v Speaker 5>actually I put that question that you asked about how

0:30:23.920 --> 0:30:27.280
<v Speaker 5>can they trust us to get back into negotiations directly

0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:31.000
<v Speaker 5>to a couple of Iranian sources, and they said, well, look,

0:30:31.040 --> 0:30:34.080
<v Speaker 5>the thing you have to understand is like maybe you

0:30:34.160 --> 0:30:37.760
<v Speaker 5>had a better perception of the United States ten years ago.

0:30:38.200 --> 0:30:42.240
<v Speaker 5>We never did. Like, we have never trusted the United States,

0:30:42.520 --> 0:30:45.400
<v Speaker 5>no matter who the president was, and so we were

0:30:45.400 --> 0:30:49.480
<v Speaker 5>not shocked that they pulled out of the JCPOA, and

0:30:49.520 --> 0:30:51.960
<v Speaker 5>we were not shocked that they attacked us. You know,

0:30:52.120 --> 0:30:55.120
<v Speaker 5>they in Israel attacked us. They expected it, they saw

0:30:55.160 --> 0:30:57.200
<v Speaker 5>it coming. So their answer was, you know, you make

0:30:57.240 --> 0:31:00.560
<v Speaker 5>deals not based on trust, but you know, expediency, necessity,

0:31:01.000 --> 0:31:02.760
<v Speaker 5>and then you put everything into the deal that you

0:31:02.800 --> 0:31:06.720
<v Speaker 5>possibly can to make it enforceable. And that's why, you know,

0:31:06.920 --> 0:31:09.480
<v Speaker 5>the Russians and the Europeans were part of the JCPOA.

0:31:09.720 --> 0:31:10.960
<v Speaker 2>There's some hope that.

0:31:10.960 --> 0:31:15.080
<v Speaker 5>Like you know, global involvement, you know, would would pressure

0:31:15.080 --> 0:31:18.840
<v Speaker 5>the United States to want Yeah, thinking it obviously didn't,

0:31:18.920 --> 0:31:20.320
<v Speaker 5>but go ahead, Yeah, let.

0:31:20.240 --> 0:31:22.000
<v Speaker 2>Me pick up on that, because this is actually one

0:31:22.000 --> 0:31:23.600
<v Speaker 2>thing that gives me a little bit of hope is

0:31:23.640 --> 0:31:26.760
<v Speaker 2>that the main parties meeting with the Iranians today are

0:31:26.760 --> 0:31:31.200
<v Speaker 2>the European powers and Macron actually has a quote comprehensive

0:31:31.680 --> 0:31:33.920
<v Speaker 2>offer to Tehran. I can read a little bit from this,

0:31:33.960 --> 0:31:36.760
<v Speaker 2>and I'm reading from the Financial Times Crystal. It says

0:31:36.880 --> 0:31:39.720
<v Speaker 2>Macrone said negotiations have to move towards the zero and

0:31:39.920 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 2>uranium enrichment as and foreign ministers will meet with them

0:31:44.120 --> 0:31:47.520
<v Speaker 2>and they will present to them this quote comprehensive negotiation offer,

0:31:47.640 --> 0:31:50.000
<v Speaker 2>which would put an end to the hostilities. Namely, it

0:31:50.000 --> 0:31:52.840
<v Speaker 2>would cause a ceasefire as well as lead to zero

0:31:53.040 --> 0:31:56.120
<v Speaker 2>enrichment from the Iranians. Again, I don't know if that's

0:31:56.120 --> 0:31:59.120
<v Speaker 2>what the Iranians would agree to. But really the real

0:31:59.200 --> 0:32:02.680
<v Speaker 2>problem here is that the so called comprehensive offer, even

0:32:02.720 --> 0:32:05.000
<v Speaker 2>according to the French and the Europeans, is that it

0:32:05.080 --> 0:32:07.840
<v Speaker 2>also has to be acceptable to Israel. I just don't

0:32:07.880 --> 0:32:09.680
<v Speaker 2>think that there is any deal at this point which

0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:12.280
<v Speaker 2>is acceptable to Israel, which again is one of those

0:32:12.320 --> 0:32:15.600
<v Speaker 2>things where it's the United States of America who would

0:32:15.640 --> 0:32:18.440
<v Speaker 2>probably take that deal, but the Israelis would be like, oh,

0:32:18.520 --> 0:32:19.800
<v Speaker 2>how can we trust it?

0:32:20.000 --> 0:32:21.640
<v Speaker 1>Another yeah?

0:32:21.720 --> 0:32:23.440
<v Speaker 2>Right, but even with zero and Richmond, they would say,

0:32:23.440 --> 0:32:25.200
<v Speaker 2>how can we trust you that you're not going to

0:32:25.240 --> 0:32:27.360
<v Speaker 2>They'd be like, you need to basically let me occupy

0:32:27.440 --> 0:32:30.120
<v Speaker 2>your nuclear facility. Right, They're gonna be no, that's not

0:32:30.160 --> 0:32:35.160
<v Speaker 2>going to happen. Another really nightmas ut, Yeah right, but

0:32:35.480 --> 0:32:39.200
<v Speaker 2>one like nightmare scenario I see right now is Israelis

0:32:39.240 --> 0:32:42.240
<v Speaker 2>are now talking about some sort of grand commando raid

0:32:42.640 --> 0:32:45.800
<v Speaker 2>on the four Todah facility, like occupying the way that

0:32:45.840 --> 0:32:48.800
<v Speaker 2>they did in Syria. But I mean, look, the risk

0:32:48.880 --> 0:32:52.280
<v Speaker 2>there is just so insanely fraught, and especially if it

0:32:52.320 --> 0:32:55.720
<v Speaker 2>were to become a disaster, and then you could easily

0:32:55.760 --> 0:32:58.920
<v Speaker 2>see how things snowball from there have failed Israeli commando

0:32:59.040 --> 0:33:02.560
<v Speaker 2>slash strike ray that fails to take out power, doesn't

0:33:02.760 --> 0:33:05.360
<v Speaker 2>finish the job, and then the Iranians are like, screw it,

0:33:05.440 --> 0:33:08.560
<v Speaker 2>let's go sprint to the bomb, right. I mean, there's

0:33:08.600 --> 0:33:12.440
<v Speaker 2>so much here which would obviously just almost immediately draw

0:33:12.480 --> 0:33:15.520
<v Speaker 2>America in. So I'm like cautiously, like twenty five percent

0:33:15.800 --> 0:33:19.520
<v Speaker 2>optimistic about this, but I just I don't see how

0:33:19.560 --> 0:33:23.360
<v Speaker 2>we can surmount, you know, the Israeli I don't see

0:33:23.360 --> 0:33:26.400
<v Speaker 2>how we can surmount like all of their clear strategic

0:33:26.440 --> 0:33:29.400
<v Speaker 2>objectives at this point, unless a different Donald Trump emerges

0:33:29.680 --> 0:33:33.560
<v Speaker 2>who is like, no, we're done. This is what we're doing.

0:33:33.920 --> 0:33:37.200
<v Speaker 2>But I mean, he couldn't even stop Israel from striking Iran,

0:33:37.680 --> 0:33:39.040
<v Speaker 2>if that's even to be believed.

0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:42.440
<v Speaker 4>You know, they wanted to, he didn't want to. I mean,

0:33:42.680 --> 0:33:44.120
<v Speaker 4>let's not be foolish here, right.

0:33:44.200 --> 0:33:46.440
<v Speaker 1>And I think Ken Cleppenstein, and now his reporting was

0:33:46.520 --> 0:33:49.360
<v Speaker 1>confirmed by Reuters, I think that, you know, Trump for

0:33:49.400 --> 0:33:52.080
<v Speaker 1>a while, and Biden too, by the way, was like, no,

0:33:52.240 --> 0:33:54.239
<v Speaker 1>you're not doing that, You're not doing that, You're not

0:33:54.280 --> 0:33:57.320
<v Speaker 1>doing that. And then Trump was doing the same for

0:33:57.440 --> 0:34:01.240
<v Speaker 1>a while and then he stopped saying no. And that

0:34:01.400 --> 0:34:04.200
<v Speaker 1>is the equivalent of a green light. Now maybe you

0:34:04.240 --> 0:34:06.560
<v Speaker 1>know that way you have plausible deniability that you didn't

0:34:06.560 --> 0:34:09.400
<v Speaker 1>affirmatively say yes, go ahead. But of course the Israelis

0:34:09.400 --> 0:34:11.600
<v Speaker 1>are going to know as soon as you are like, oh, well,

0:34:11.719 --> 0:34:13.920
<v Speaker 1>do what you want to do, they know exactly what

0:34:13.920 --> 0:34:17.000
<v Speaker 1>that means. And so you know, Trump knew exactly what

0:34:17.040 --> 0:34:19.600
<v Speaker 1>was unfolding here. He he green lit this. I mean,

0:34:19.600 --> 0:34:21.920
<v Speaker 1>we saw the build up. We all were watching closely

0:34:21.960 --> 0:34:24.120
<v Speaker 1>as to what was ultimately going to unfold.

0:34:24.560 --> 0:34:28.600
<v Speaker 4>So he wanted this to happen. He green lit it.

0:34:28.840 --> 0:34:32.560
<v Speaker 1>We shipped hundreds of hellfire missiles to Israel in advance

0:34:32.560 --> 0:34:36.520
<v Speaker 1>of these strikes. So you know, it's like, I don't

0:34:36.520 --> 0:34:39.279
<v Speaker 1>want to Yes, Nan Yahoo is doing everything he can

0:34:39.480 --> 0:34:42.759
<v Speaker 1>to create that outcome. But ultimately it's Donald Trump who decided, yes,

0:34:42.880 --> 0:34:44.880
<v Speaker 1>this is this is the direction that we're ultimately going

0:34:44.920 --> 0:34:47.879
<v Speaker 1>to go, and we're going to let Israel attack ran

0:34:48.719 --> 0:34:51.399
<v Speaker 1>days before we're supposed to have the next round of negotiations.

0:34:51.440 --> 0:34:54.120
<v Speaker 1>Even though I mean, from all indications, there was a

0:34:54.120 --> 0:34:57.239
<v Speaker 1>plausible chance of actually being able to seal some sort

0:34:57.280 --> 0:34:59.719
<v Speaker 1>of a deal and achieve a diplomatic solution, which is

0:34:59.800 --> 0:35:03.840
<v Speaker 1>much more unlikely at this point after you know, after

0:35:03.880 --> 0:35:07.040
<v Speaker 1>we blew up our own our own deal making ability.

0:35:07.120 --> 0:35:09.359
<v Speaker 5>And we have some relevant comments I can put up

0:35:09.360 --> 0:35:12.839
<v Speaker 5>from a senior arining advisor that goes exactly to this point.

0:35:12.920 --> 0:35:18.360
<v Speaker 5>Let me put this up where basically he's saying do

0:35:19.160 --> 0:35:21.160
<v Speaker 5>and this is a close advisor to the IOTOL saying

0:35:21.160 --> 0:35:24.719
<v Speaker 5>that it is it would be a mistake to reach

0:35:24.719 --> 0:35:29.640
<v Speaker 5>a ceasefire at this point because Israel is going to

0:35:29.640 --> 0:35:32.000
<v Speaker 5>break the ceasefire in two months and they will use

0:35:32.080 --> 0:35:35.640
<v Speaker 5>the two months or whatever the period is to restock

0:35:35.760 --> 0:35:40.879
<v Speaker 5>their supplies, particularly of interceptor missiles. So any cease fire

0:35:40.880 --> 0:35:43.320
<v Speaker 5>that is implemented now will lead to renewed war. We

0:35:43.400 --> 0:35:45.120
<v Speaker 5>should not allow the enemy, which is currently in a

0:35:45.120 --> 0:35:47.920
<v Speaker 5>weak position, to revive itself with a ceasefire. And he

0:35:48.000 --> 0:35:51.560
<v Speaker 5>goes on through, you know, with that analysis. But I

0:35:51.640 --> 0:35:55.319
<v Speaker 5>think this is a consequence of you know, the US

0:35:55.320 --> 0:35:58.680
<v Speaker 5>and Israel not abiding by any of its agreements, whether

0:35:58.719 --> 0:36:02.080
<v Speaker 5>it's the January ceasefire that they reached with Hamas and

0:36:02.120 --> 0:36:04.920
<v Speaker 5>then said they were going to break and then broke broke,

0:36:05.000 --> 0:36:09.319
<v Speaker 5>whether it was the deal over Eaton Alexander where they said,

0:36:09.360 --> 0:36:11.359
<v Speaker 5>if you release eat On Alexander, will let in aid

0:36:11.440 --> 0:36:13.879
<v Speaker 5>and we'll push for a ceasefire and they and they

0:36:13.880 --> 0:36:17.320
<v Speaker 5>did none of that. Whether it's you know, assassinating Hondya

0:36:17.360 --> 0:36:20.279
<v Speaker 5>in Tehran as they're getting very close to a deal,

0:36:20.320 --> 0:36:24.360
<v Speaker 5>and on and on. If you believe that a ceasefire

0:36:24.960 --> 0:36:28.480
<v Speaker 5>can't be trusted, then then why reach a ceasefire unless

0:36:28.480 --> 0:36:32.440
<v Speaker 5>you are fit on the brink of like regiment elimination.

0:36:36.600 --> 0:36:38.319
<v Speaker 1>Let me put this up on the screen and get

0:36:38.360 --> 0:36:40.640
<v Speaker 1>your reaction to it. This was the just to put

0:36:40.680 --> 0:36:43.359
<v Speaker 1>it out there. This is the reporting from sihirsh of

0:36:43.400 --> 0:36:46.439
<v Speaker 1>what his sources are telling him it's going to happen. Say,

0:36:46.480 --> 0:36:49.080
<v Speaker 1>mixed bag in terms of his reporting accuracy, but I

0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:50.680
<v Speaker 1>think it's good to put it all on the table.

0:36:51.280 --> 0:36:55.560
<v Speaker 1>Michael Tracy tweeted these portions. So he, according to is

0:36:55.600 --> 0:36:57.520
<v Speaker 1>reporting this report on what was most likely to happen

0:36:57.560 --> 0:36:59.320
<v Speaker 1>in Iran as early as this weekend. According to is

0:36:59.400 --> 0:37:02.440
<v Speaker 1>really and and American officials I've relied upon for decades,

0:37:02.719 --> 0:37:05.960
<v Speaker 1>will entail heavy American bombing. I have vetted this report

0:37:05.960 --> 0:37:07.960
<v Speaker 1>with a long time US official, and Washington told me

0:37:08.000 --> 0:37:10.920
<v Speaker 1>that it will all be under control if Iran Supreme

0:37:11.000 --> 0:37:13.120
<v Speaker 1>leader Ali Commany departs.

0:37:13.200 --> 0:37:15.520
<v Speaker 4>Just how that might happen short of his assassinations not known.

0:37:15.560 --> 0:37:17.720
<v Speaker 1>There's been a great deal of talk about American firepower

0:37:17.760 --> 0:37:20.200
<v Speaker 1>targets inside Iran, but little practical thinking, as far as

0:37:20.239 --> 0:37:22.800
<v Speaker 1>I can tell, about how to remove a revered religious

0:37:22.880 --> 0:37:26.560
<v Speaker 1>leader with an enormous following. Next piece, here he says,

0:37:26.560 --> 0:37:28.120
<v Speaker 1>I've been told the White House is signed off on

0:37:28.200 --> 0:37:31.400
<v Speaker 1>an all out bombing campaign in Iran, But the ultimate targets,

0:37:31.520 --> 0:37:34.040
<v Speaker 1>the centrifuge, is buried at least eighty meters below the

0:37:34.040 --> 0:37:36.000
<v Speaker 1>surface at four dough will as of this writing, not

0:37:36.040 --> 0:37:39.120
<v Speaker 1>be struck until the weekend. Delay has come at Trump's insistence,

0:37:39.160 --> 0:37:42.080
<v Speaker 1>because now this does kind of ring true. The president

0:37:42.160 --> 0:37:44.160
<v Speaker 1>wants the shock of the bombing to be diminished before

0:37:44.200 --> 0:37:46.560
<v Speaker 1>the opening of Wall Street trading on Monday. Trump took

0:37:46.560 --> 0:37:48.520
<v Speaker 1>issue on social media this morning with the Wall Street

0:37:48.560 --> 0:37:50.440
<v Speaker 1>Journal report that said he had decided on the attack

0:37:50.480 --> 0:37:52.400
<v Speaker 1>on Iran riding he had yet to decide on a

0:37:52.520 --> 0:37:53.120
<v Speaker 1>path forward.

0:37:53.200 --> 0:37:54.319
<v Speaker 4>So what are saying, Chrystal?

0:37:54.400 --> 0:37:55.600
<v Speaker 2>Could you Okay? So I was going to say keep

0:37:55.640 --> 0:37:58.040
<v Speaker 2>that up? Yeah, there was sorry, I'll reach heare no, no.

0:37:58.200 --> 0:38:00.160
<v Speaker 9>Because I just wanted to zoom in on Thean. A

0:38:00.239 --> 0:38:07.680
<v Speaker 9>post about the disputed accuracy of sy Hirsch's record, because

0:38:08.080 --> 0:38:11.760
<v Speaker 9>Hanania sort of has this like snarky reply. I remember

0:38:12.200 --> 0:38:14.520
<v Speaker 9>Seymour Hirsch reporting that we were sent to bomb Iran

0:38:14.640 --> 0:38:17.319
<v Speaker 9>during the Bush administration, and I know what he's saying,

0:38:17.480 --> 0:38:19.640
<v Speaker 9>but I actually think that's an interesting point because it

0:38:19.760 --> 0:38:23.080
<v Speaker 9>tells you who has been leaking over the course of

0:38:23.200 --> 0:38:26.960
<v Speaker 9>decades to try to force a bombing of Iran. And

0:38:27.080 --> 0:38:31.399
<v Speaker 9>I think that's like whether or not this report specifically

0:38:31.640 --> 0:38:34.440
<v Speaker 9>is an accurate assessment of Trump's thinking. What it is

0:38:35.239 --> 0:38:38.759
<v Speaker 9>is Seymour Hirsh having a source who he is describing

0:38:38.920 --> 0:38:40.680
<v Speaker 9>accurately as a senior US official.

0:38:40.760 --> 0:38:41.840
<v Speaker 4>I'm sure that part is.

0:38:41.880 --> 0:38:45.919
<v Speaker 9>True talking to him and saying that this is what's

0:38:46.000 --> 0:38:50.120
<v Speaker 9>being discussed in a serious way. So I actually, I mean, yes,

0:38:50.360 --> 0:38:52.600
<v Speaker 9>take it with a grain of salt, but I think

0:38:52.800 --> 0:38:57.160
<v Speaker 9>it's actually not insane that this is likely a serious,

0:38:57.239 --> 0:39:00.080
<v Speaker 9>high level conversation that's happening. I don't know how this

0:39:00.239 --> 0:39:03.240
<v Speaker 9>is going to be affected by Trump's Bannon lunch yesterday

0:39:03.480 --> 0:39:06.680
<v Speaker 9>and the two week I don't know what we call it,

0:39:06.800 --> 0:39:11.239
<v Speaker 9>like deadline extension, but it did feel like we were

0:39:11.320 --> 0:39:13.800
<v Speaker 9>in a forty eight hour window and I don't know

0:39:13.880 --> 0:39:16.080
<v Speaker 9>that we actually are out of the forty eight hour

0:39:16.120 --> 0:39:19.600
<v Speaker 9>window at all, because it's hard to know when Trump'

0:39:19.640 --> 0:39:22.440
<v Speaker 9>has two weeks what he's trying to telegraph to Iran.

0:39:22.880 --> 0:39:26.040
<v Speaker 9>It's hard to know what Israel then does. There's no

0:39:26.200 --> 0:39:30.400
<v Speaker 9>way that Noahu is happy with Trump's two week announcement yesterday,

0:39:30.600 --> 0:39:33.200
<v Speaker 9>and so do they escalate in a way that forces

0:39:33.360 --> 0:39:35.920
<v Speaker 9>the hand? I don't know, but that reporting to me

0:39:36.000 --> 0:39:36.800
<v Speaker 9>doesn't seem insane.

0:39:37.400 --> 0:39:39.839
<v Speaker 1>Sager, what do you make of this tactical nukes talk?

0:39:40.280 --> 0:39:43.480
<v Speaker 2>Oh my god, don't even get me started. I'm getting me.

0:39:43.480 --> 0:39:48.440
<v Speaker 4>Started, buddy, let me pull it up. I got it here.

0:39:48.600 --> 0:39:49.360
<v Speaker 1>Let's go ahead and play it.

0:39:52.040 --> 0:39:55.640
<v Speaker 7>It's a senior White House correspondent, Jackie heinright the cot.

0:39:55.560 --> 0:40:00.759
<v Speaker 10>Away from the shots Son headlines this afternoon one from

0:40:00.880 --> 0:40:04.840
<v Speaker 10>The Guardian that claimed that US military has doubts about

0:40:04.880 --> 0:40:07.560
<v Speaker 10>whether the bunker buster bombs could get the job done

0:40:08.000 --> 0:40:11.400
<v Speaker 10>and further claiming that only a tactical nuke may be

0:40:12.080 --> 0:40:15.840
<v Speaker 10>finish it. And it further stated that the President is

0:40:15.920 --> 0:40:18.279
<v Speaker 10>not considering a tactical nuke, that it was not one

0:40:18.280 --> 0:40:19.160
<v Speaker 10>of the options.

0:40:18.840 --> 0:40:19.799
<v Speaker 4>That was presented to him.

0:40:19.840 --> 0:40:22.080
<v Speaker 10>I was just told by a top officials here that

0:40:22.480 --> 0:40:24.759
<v Speaker 10>none of that report is true, that none of the

0:40:24.840 --> 0:40:27.560
<v Speaker 10>options are off the table, and the US military is

0:40:27.680 --> 0:40:30.600
<v Speaker 10>very confident that bunker busters could get the job done

0:40:30.640 --> 0:40:31.160
<v Speaker 10>at Porto.

0:40:32.120 --> 0:40:35.400
<v Speaker 4>The President is giving so she says that it's not

0:40:35.640 --> 0:40:37.680
<v Speaker 4>the tactical none of it's true. The tactical nukes are

0:40:37.680 --> 0:40:38.600
<v Speaker 4>actually not off the table.

0:40:38.680 --> 0:40:39.960
<v Speaker 2>Tactical nukes are on the table.

0:40:40.920 --> 0:40:42.200
<v Speaker 4>She kind of buries the lead there.

0:40:42.280 --> 0:40:44.279
<v Speaker 1>You kind of have to like really listen in in,

0:40:44.320 --> 0:40:46.520
<v Speaker 1>which seems kind of significant.

0:40:46.840 --> 0:40:52.040
<v Speaker 2>It's insane preposterous. It also though, I really want people

0:40:52.120 --> 0:40:56.440
<v Speaker 2>to see here how the slippery slope happens. First, it's

0:40:56.600 --> 0:41:00.160
<v Speaker 2>just we just one bomb, that's all it is. Oh,

0:41:00.280 --> 0:41:02.360
<v Speaker 2>actually it's a couple of bombs, and that's why you

0:41:02.440 --> 0:41:03.200
<v Speaker 2>leak this stuff.

0:41:03.480 --> 0:41:03.600
<v Speaker 6>Right.

0:41:03.760 --> 0:41:06.920
<v Speaker 2>Maybe the bombs though, can actually do the job. So

0:41:07.040 --> 0:41:09.360
<v Speaker 2>then it was only a tactical nuke. Oh so you

0:41:09.440 --> 0:41:11.040
<v Speaker 2>drop a tactical nuke on here. Now we're in a

0:41:11.080 --> 0:41:15.440
<v Speaker 2>whole different other world. And you know, this just demonstrates, Look,

0:41:15.640 --> 0:41:18.000
<v Speaker 2>these generals, they make all kinds of promises from what

0:41:18.080 --> 0:41:21.280
<v Speaker 2>I hear General Gorilla has been, you know, in all

0:41:21.360 --> 0:41:24.120
<v Speaker 2>these like meetings with the President being like mister President,

0:41:24.160 --> 0:41:26.320
<v Speaker 2>we can do this. He wants to cement his legacy

0:41:26.600 --> 0:41:28.840
<v Speaker 2>as the guy who took out the Iranian nuclear program.

0:41:28.960 --> 0:41:31.000
<v Speaker 2>His term is up in only two weeks, and he's

0:41:31.000 --> 0:41:33.880
<v Speaker 2>given all these pie in this guy bullshit military assessments

0:41:33.920 --> 0:41:35.960
<v Speaker 2>to Donald Trump. Of course Donald Trump is loving it, right.

0:41:36.200 --> 0:41:38.800
<v Speaker 2>Gorilla is like jacked. He looks good. He's got a

0:41:38.880 --> 0:41:42.759
<v Speaker 2>nice figure on camera, straight out of Central casting, as

0:41:42.800 --> 0:41:46.680
<v Speaker 2>Trump would say. So this is the Listen the gorilla,

0:41:46.960 --> 0:41:49.319
<v Speaker 2>the gorilla, Gorilla, the gorilla. So like, we can all

0:41:49.440 --> 0:41:52.239
<v Speaker 2>see how the wheels are turning. It's obviously it would

0:41:52.239 --> 0:41:54.399
<v Speaker 2>be devastating. I think one of the main reasons they're

0:41:54.480 --> 0:41:56.760
<v Speaker 2>keeping it open is just basically to scare the shit

0:41:57.120 --> 0:42:00.520
<v Speaker 2>out of the Iranians. But really what it's about is

0:42:00.960 --> 0:42:04.680
<v Speaker 2>they are being so reckless in their rhetoric that they're

0:42:04.760 --> 0:42:08.560
<v Speaker 2>actually again just increasing the odds of the Iranians being like,

0:42:08.719 --> 0:42:12.040
<v Speaker 2>you people are crazy, we are just going to sprint

0:42:12.400 --> 0:42:15.120
<v Speaker 2>to the bomb. And the only reason why this really

0:42:15.239 --> 0:42:18.640
<v Speaker 2>is all happening is again because of Israel's actions basically

0:42:18.840 --> 0:42:21.600
<v Speaker 2>ratcheting up where the US has to go from the

0:42:21.719 --> 0:42:23.880
<v Speaker 2>escalation ladder. Also, can we all keep in mind that

0:42:23.960 --> 0:42:27.320
<v Speaker 2>when Russia was even openly talking about a tactical nuclear

0:42:27.360 --> 0:42:29.800
<v Speaker 2>weapon in Ukraine. That everyone was like that would be

0:42:29.880 --> 0:42:31.880
<v Speaker 2>a red line and that we should basically go to

0:42:31.960 --> 0:42:34.440
<v Speaker 2>war with Russia. So should Russia go to war with us?

0:42:34.840 --> 0:42:37.560
<v Speaker 2>You know that Rana is technically their client state in

0:42:37.680 --> 0:42:40.560
<v Speaker 2>a similar manner. It's maybe not exactly the same, but

0:42:40.760 --> 0:42:43.320
<v Speaker 2>everyone just see how crazy this all is. And this

0:42:43.440 --> 0:42:46.160
<v Speaker 2>is again you know where I've been going back and

0:42:46.200 --> 0:42:49.160
<v Speaker 2>I've been reading even more about all these these military

0:42:49.280 --> 0:42:52.880
<v Speaker 2>guys are the kings of over promising and under delivering.

0:42:53.120 --> 0:42:55.240
<v Speaker 2>So we can all talk about Libya. We actually delivered

0:42:55.280 --> 0:42:57.360
<v Speaker 2>in Libya. We took out their air defense. It was

0:42:57.400 --> 0:43:00.280
<v Speaker 2>just the strategic problem of the fact that the country

0:43:00.320 --> 0:43:03.320
<v Speaker 2>collapse into civil war. But what about Serbia? Serbia is

0:43:03.320 --> 0:43:06.160
<v Speaker 2>actually a very apt example. So in nineteen ninety nine,

0:43:06.520 --> 0:43:09.360
<v Speaker 2>NATO and the United States wanted to take out Melosovich

0:43:09.400 --> 0:43:11.839
<v Speaker 2>and basically get to stop the civil war and all

0:43:11.880 --> 0:43:15.000
<v Speaker 2>of his actions. Right, well, the US military predicted and

0:43:15.160 --> 0:43:17.920
<v Speaker 2>NATO said it will just take three days of bombing

0:43:18.239 --> 0:43:21.960
<v Speaker 2>to get Melosovich to back down. It took eleven weeks,

0:43:22.280 --> 0:43:24.480
<v Speaker 2>and at the end of those eleven weeks, the US

0:43:24.560 --> 0:43:28.360
<v Speaker 2>military was presenting options to President Clinton to fully invade

0:43:28.640 --> 0:43:31.480
<v Speaker 2>and to take over Serbia because air power could not

0:43:31.560 --> 0:43:34.040
<v Speaker 2>get the job done. We have to just keep learning

0:43:34.120 --> 0:43:37.080
<v Speaker 2>these lessons over and over and over and over again.

0:43:37.320 --> 0:43:39.480
<v Speaker 2>These guys don't actually know what they're talking about. They

0:43:39.520 --> 0:43:42.080
<v Speaker 2>said Iraq was going to be a cakewalk. One hundred

0:43:42.080 --> 0:43:46.200
<v Speaker 2>and fifty thousand troops, mister President, no question, no problem. Afghanistan,

0:43:46.280 --> 0:43:48.239
<v Speaker 2>don't worry about it. We should get a couple of

0:43:48.239 --> 0:43:51.239
<v Speaker 2>special forces overthrow the government. We could take out the

0:43:51.320 --> 0:43:55.240
<v Speaker 2>Taliban with limited air strikes. It never works. It's always

0:43:55.280 --> 0:43:58.319
<v Speaker 2>going to lead to the ground troop and or way

0:43:58.480 --> 0:44:00.720
<v Speaker 2>more than we ever thought from the very beginning.

0:44:00.760 --> 0:44:01.040
<v Speaker 6>Go at.

0:44:01.080 --> 0:44:04.120
<v Speaker 9>The incredible irony of all of this is that Iran

0:44:04.400 --> 0:44:09.640
<v Speaker 9>itself should have been the first lesson of this decade ago.

0:44:10.000 --> 0:44:14.160
<v Speaker 9>This is the text book example playing out in front

0:44:14.160 --> 0:44:18.520
<v Speaker 9>of us. So it's a tragic irony that, you know, again,

0:44:18.719 --> 0:44:22.279
<v Speaker 9>they thought they had that completely under control, no unintended

0:44:22.320 --> 0:44:25.640
<v Speaker 9>consequences that happened down the line from meddling, and here

0:44:25.719 --> 0:44:29.920
<v Speaker 9>we are in twenty twenty five, still groping to figure

0:44:29.920 --> 0:44:31.040
<v Speaker 9>out what happens.

0:44:30.840 --> 0:44:35.480
<v Speaker 1>Talking about bringing back the Shaw's son too yet learning

0:44:35.480 --> 0:44:36.240
<v Speaker 1>any lessons.

0:44:36.640 --> 0:44:39.520
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I talk about that too. Fox News is referring

0:44:39.560 --> 0:44:41.200
<v Speaker 2>to this guy as his Royal Highness.

0:44:41.560 --> 0:44:43.880
<v Speaker 4>Oh my god, No they aren't.

0:44:44.400 --> 0:44:45.160
<v Speaker 2>No, no, they are.

0:44:45.920 --> 0:44:46.279
<v Speaker 3>Check it out.

0:44:46.360 --> 0:44:48.320
<v Speaker 2>You can tweeted it out. They go his Royal Highness

0:44:48.360 --> 0:44:51.880
<v Speaker 2>the show, I go, Where am I on bizarro planet?

0:44:52.200 --> 0:44:55.560
<v Speaker 2>What's happening? You know, just being the son of a

0:44:55.640 --> 0:44:59.040
<v Speaker 2>deposed king does not make you hrh is a title.

0:44:59.239 --> 0:45:01.600
<v Speaker 2>It has meaning. Okay, I mean, I don't know what

0:45:01.719 --> 0:45:05.920
<v Speaker 2>are we doing here, not to be a royal expert

0:45:06.040 --> 0:45:08.960
<v Speaker 2>or whatever. But you know it's like if we had

0:45:09.040 --> 0:45:12.840
<v Speaker 2>on Edward Habsburg and we're like, his Royal Highness of

0:45:13.360 --> 0:45:16.239
<v Speaker 2>lost your hungary, Like what but I think he's like

0:45:16.320 --> 0:45:18.520
<v Speaker 2>a banker in Switzerland.

0:45:19.600 --> 0:45:19.920
<v Speaker 3>Poem.

0:45:23.000 --> 0:45:25.120
<v Speaker 2>He'd be like, I'm Edward, you don't have to call

0:45:25.200 --> 0:45:27.520
<v Speaker 2>me that. And he's like the dynasty is gone. You

0:45:27.600 --> 0:45:29.480
<v Speaker 2>know when you when you get thrown out, you don't

0:45:29.520 --> 0:45:32.000
<v Speaker 2>get the title anymore. I thought we all acknowledge that,

0:45:32.080 --> 0:45:34.359
<v Speaker 2>but they're seriously having this guy on and he's like, Oh,

0:45:34.560 --> 0:45:39.920
<v Speaker 2>Iranians cry out for monarchy and for its insanity, the sanity.

0:45:40.160 --> 0:45:43.160
<v Speaker 1>We I have the media clips on here, the coverage,

0:45:43.800 --> 0:45:48.120
<v Speaker 1>the level of undul I don't even know what to say.

0:45:48.200 --> 0:45:50.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we truly do, like cable news really does

0:45:50.840 --> 0:45:55.680
<v Speaker 1>never learn anything. Ever, it's so wild to see the

0:45:55.760 --> 0:45:58.399
<v Speaker 1>propaganda march and it matters. I mean, we were covering

0:45:58.480 --> 0:46:02.680
<v Speaker 1>that polling where it really depends people feel about this

0:46:02.880 --> 0:46:05.880
<v Speaker 1>all kinds of ways, depending on how it's framed. So

0:46:06.040 --> 0:46:08.279
<v Speaker 1>I guarantee if you ask people do you want to

0:46:08.320 --> 0:46:12.879
<v Speaker 1>get America entrenched in some like potentially catastrophic regime change

0:46:12.920 --> 0:46:15.520
<v Speaker 1>or regime collapse war, they could be like are you hot?

0:46:15.680 --> 0:46:17.520
<v Speaker 4>Like what, why would we do that?

0:46:18.080 --> 0:46:18.279
<v Speaker 6>Why?

0:46:18.840 --> 0:46:21.520
<v Speaker 4>I think it would be ninety ten. But if you ask,

0:46:21.680 --> 0:46:22.279
<v Speaker 4>you know, oh.

0:46:22.239 --> 0:46:24.560
<v Speaker 1>Well, should Orn have a nuke? Well? Should we let

0:46:24.680 --> 0:46:26.839
<v Speaker 1>Israel strike Roan to get rid of their nuclear proga?

0:46:26.840 --> 0:46:27.640
<v Speaker 4>Who could object to that?

0:46:27.680 --> 0:46:30.640
<v Speaker 1>Well? Should we supply the weapons that Israel useless? Well,

0:46:30.680 --> 0:46:32.759
<v Speaker 1>you know, should we maybe be the ones just to

0:46:32.800 --> 0:46:35.480
<v Speaker 1>go ahead and take out these nuclear weapons? Because you've

0:46:35.520 --> 0:46:38.760
<v Speaker 1>already said Oran can't have a nuke. When it's framed

0:46:38.840 --> 0:46:42.160
<v Speaker 1>in that way, suddenly you get a disturbing amount of

0:46:42.239 --> 0:46:44.360
<v Speaker 1>public consensus. And we also have to be real about

0:46:44.360 --> 0:46:47.399
<v Speaker 1>the quote unquote anti war mega base. The Republican base

0:46:47.520 --> 0:46:50.160
<v Speaker 1>is vastly more pro war than the Democratic base. They

0:46:50.239 --> 0:46:53.040
<v Speaker 1>will go and support whatever Donald Trump wants to do,

0:46:53.280 --> 0:46:56.080
<v Speaker 1>including Steve Bannon, who already has told the Financial Times

0:46:56.280 --> 0:46:59.319
<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, Me Tucker, Marjorie Taylor Green,

0:46:59.400 --> 0:47:01.920
<v Speaker 1>all these people will support the president's decision and just

0:47:02.000 --> 0:47:04.640
<v Speaker 1>assume he has more intelligence and more wisdom and more

0:47:04.719 --> 0:47:05.600
<v Speaker 1>understanding that we do.

0:47:05.760 --> 0:47:07.279
<v Speaker 4>At the end of the day, they will all bend

0:47:07.320 --> 0:47:09.280
<v Speaker 4>the ney to whatever it is that Trump decides.

0:47:09.480 --> 0:47:11.399
<v Speaker 2>Most of them will, and most of the base will.

0:47:11.480 --> 0:47:13.560
<v Speaker 2>But you know, you made an important point yesterday, Chrystal

0:47:13.600 --> 0:47:15.239
<v Speaker 2>on our show. Independence won't And.

0:47:15.280 --> 0:47:17.880
<v Speaker 4>That's yeah, that difficult, absolutely, and that's why.

0:47:17.840 --> 0:47:20.840
<v Speaker 2>That show does matter. And you know, I want to

0:47:20.880 --> 0:47:22.879
<v Speaker 2>get this guy on the show, this guy Rich Barris.

0:47:23.120 --> 0:47:27.359
<v Speaker 2>He's like a maga like aligned Ulster, and he's been

0:47:27.400 --> 0:47:30.480
<v Speaker 2>making some great points where he's like, hey, guys, Trump's

0:47:30.680 --> 0:47:33.439
<v Speaker 2>entire margin of victory in Michigan is the anti war

0:47:33.719 --> 0:47:36.920
<v Speaker 2>independent base. He's like the dearborn people who voted for

0:47:37.000 --> 0:47:41.560
<v Speaker 2>Trump and or people who were union and anti Iraq war.

0:47:42.000 --> 0:47:46.200
<v Speaker 2>That is the margin of victory. So Donald Trump, it's

0:47:46.280 --> 0:47:48.840
<v Speaker 2>striking the parallels with George W. Bush, Like if you

0:47:48.920 --> 0:47:51.319
<v Speaker 2>look at the ninety six electoral map and the two

0:47:51.360 --> 0:47:54.040
<v Speaker 2>thousand electoral map. It's actually insane how much things can

0:47:54.120 --> 0:47:57.279
<v Speaker 2>change in just four years. George W. Bush, everybody forgets this.

0:47:57.520 --> 0:47:59.719
<v Speaker 2>He ran as a restraintist. He thought that the US

0:47:59.800 --> 0:48:02.400
<v Speaker 2>can pain in Serbia was a disaster. He was like,

0:48:02.520 --> 0:48:05.359
<v Speaker 2>that's not something that I'm interested in doing. He ran

0:48:05.520 --> 0:48:08.840
<v Speaker 2>on reducing America's footprint abroad. And then of course we

0:48:08.920 --> 0:48:12.080
<v Speaker 2>got you know, mister Neocon himself. Things changed a lot

0:48:12.160 --> 0:48:14.920
<v Speaker 2>after nine to eleven because he literally had a messianic

0:48:15.040 --> 0:48:17.600
<v Speaker 2>complex where he believed he was put on earth by

0:48:17.760 --> 0:48:19.800
<v Speaker 2>God to be there at nine to eleven and to

0:48:19.920 --> 0:48:24.680
<v Speaker 2>destroy the access of evil, which is telling Trump right now,

0:48:24.760 --> 0:48:26.960
<v Speaker 2>this is look, I'm trying to drop parallels here.

0:48:27.200 --> 0:48:28.000
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, he believes it.

0:48:28.200 --> 0:48:30.839
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's raw by Huckabye. There's a reason why

0:48:31.200 --> 0:48:33.960
<v Speaker 1>he shared that text. And he talked about himself this way.

0:48:34.000 --> 0:48:37.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean his inaugural speech, he talked about how you know,

0:48:37.160 --> 0:48:39.720
<v Speaker 1>he's basically put there by God for this great moment.

0:48:40.160 --> 0:48:43.880
<v Speaker 1>And so when I mean, Emily, you're gonna have to

0:48:44.640 --> 0:48:46.719
<v Speaker 1>you're gonna have to be my deacoder in some of

0:48:46.760 --> 0:48:51.880
<v Speaker 1>this stuff. But the religious fervor of you know, the

0:48:52.440 --> 0:48:56.160
<v Speaker 1>Israeli fanatics, and then you've got the Huckabee End Times

0:48:56.239 --> 0:48:59.600
<v Speaker 1>people and Ted Cruz, and then you've got you know,

0:49:00.000 --> 0:49:03.520
<v Speaker 1>Trump believing he's, you know, the second coming of Jesus Christ.

0:49:04.360 --> 0:49:07.239
<v Speaker 1>To me, this is a terrifying mix, a totally terrifying mix,

0:49:07.360 --> 0:49:10.760
<v Speaker 1>because then you're like, you can't presume anyone's even acting

0:49:10.920 --> 0:49:15.960
<v Speaker 1>rationally when you have this divine justification behind you, when

0:49:16.000 --> 0:49:19.239
<v Speaker 1>you believe that it's your mission from God, as Ted

0:49:19.360 --> 0:49:22.200
<v Speaker 1>Cruz explained, to always serve the government of met Yahoo.

0:49:22.760 --> 0:49:25.520
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, the so I do have good news on that front,

0:49:25.520 --> 0:49:29.440
<v Speaker 9>which is that's so boomer brain. Even in evangelical circles,

0:49:29.560 --> 0:49:34.000
<v Speaker 9>it's people like there was this time before Y two

0:49:34.120 --> 0:49:39.399
<v Speaker 9>K where the Left Behind series and this millenarian Christianity

0:49:39.640 --> 0:49:43.800
<v Speaker 9>pointed straight towards Israel and created this real, very like,

0:49:44.239 --> 0:49:48.560
<v Speaker 9>very very serious political support for Israel that we all

0:49:48.680 --> 0:49:51.480
<v Speaker 9>kind of think of when we think of American evangelicals.

0:49:51.640 --> 0:49:53.200
<v Speaker 2>That has not really trickled down.

0:49:54.000 --> 0:49:55.719
<v Speaker 9>And in fact, what I saw of the last like

0:49:55.840 --> 0:49:58.120
<v Speaker 9>forty eight hours after the Huckaby thing and after the

0:49:58.160 --> 0:50:00.720
<v Speaker 9>cruising in particular, was a ton of pushback. For example,

0:50:00.840 --> 0:50:04.160
<v Speaker 9>the Federalists published a long pushback to what Ted Cruz

0:50:04.320 --> 0:50:05.840
<v Speaker 9>was saying, and I don't think that would have happened

0:50:05.880 --> 0:50:08.960
<v Speaker 9>fifteen years ago. It doesn't make it any less frightening

0:50:09.080 --> 0:50:11.520
<v Speaker 9>that Mike Kakabee, who has played very fast in loose

0:50:11.600 --> 0:50:15.040
<v Speaker 9>with whether he's a dispensationalist or not, is there. I mean,

0:50:15.080 --> 0:50:17.279
<v Speaker 9>I think in all likelihood, yes, Mike Kaukabee believes that

0:50:17.360 --> 0:50:21.239
<v Speaker 9>political Israel is. You can sort of swap that in

0:50:21.320 --> 0:50:23.520
<v Speaker 9>and out with when the Bible refers to the nation

0:50:23.600 --> 0:50:27.160
<v Speaker 9>of Israel that today twenty twenty five political nation state

0:50:27.280 --> 0:50:30.960
<v Speaker 9>Israel is. You can read that into scripture.

0:50:31.080 --> 0:50:32.560
<v Speaker 2>You could read that it's a revelation.

0:50:32.840 --> 0:50:36.160
<v Speaker 9>It's completely ridiculous, but it's it is popular where with

0:50:36.520 --> 0:50:39.640
<v Speaker 9>evangelical boomers like Mike Huckabee, so to the extent that

0:50:40.000 --> 0:50:43.480
<v Speaker 9>Huckabee is the ambassador to Israel, that matters. But I

0:50:43.560 --> 0:50:46.160
<v Speaker 9>don't think that's it's certainly now not how like a

0:50:46.239 --> 0:50:49.320
<v Speaker 9>Catholic like Jdevance or Mark or Rubio is seeing this.

0:50:49.600 --> 0:50:51.480
<v Speaker 2>I know that's cold comfort to everyone.

0:50:51.640 --> 0:50:55.600
<v Speaker 9>But the good news is the boom and brain dispensationalism

0:50:55.880 --> 0:50:59.279
<v Speaker 9>hasn't trickled down to millennials, right now.

0:50:59.400 --> 0:51:03.560
<v Speaker 4>I guess I wanted to get your Okay, good to know.

0:51:04.239 --> 0:51:06.919
<v Speaker 1>Hopefully we all survive until those millennials have a little

0:51:06.960 --> 0:51:07.680
<v Speaker 1>more power.

0:51:08.080 --> 0:51:11.160
<v Speaker 4>Right, you'll know when we're not raptured. Okay, all right,

0:51:11.200 --> 0:51:11.560
<v Speaker 4>good to know.

0:51:11.680 --> 0:51:14.200
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to get you to explain Ryan this report

0:51:14.239 --> 0:51:18.920
<v Speaker 1>from drop site about how the Israelis are reposting some

0:51:19.040 --> 0:51:22.840
<v Speaker 1>of the same strike footage from Moz obviously, you know,

0:51:22.960 --> 0:51:25.520
<v Speaker 1>has been tracking this and broke down this reporting. So

0:51:25.880 --> 0:51:28.799
<v Speaker 1>what should people like, what's the significance here?

0:51:28.880 --> 0:51:29.640
<v Speaker 4>What is he finding?

0:51:30.800 --> 0:51:35.280
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, so this is allegedly two different strikes

0:51:35.680 --> 0:51:41.920
<v Speaker 5>on two different days posted by the Israeli military, and

0:51:42.280 --> 0:51:45.160
<v Speaker 5>as as Moz points out, like if you look closely,

0:51:46.040 --> 0:51:49.200
<v Speaker 5>there's just a little bit of tweaking done to the

0:51:49.280 --> 0:51:50.360
<v Speaker 5>color and to the angle.

0:51:50.840 --> 0:51:52.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, let's blurred a little bit.

0:51:52.520 --> 0:51:53.839
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, but if you look at it, if you look

0:51:53.840 --> 0:51:55.840
<v Speaker 5>at that kind of the markings around the rest of

0:51:55.960 --> 0:51:58.799
<v Speaker 5>the image, you're like, oh, you know, it doesn't take

0:51:59.719 --> 0:52:01.680
<v Speaker 5>you know, pH D and osent to be like this

0:52:01.840 --> 0:52:03.120
<v Speaker 5>is actually the same picture.

0:52:04.239 --> 0:52:04.600
<v Speaker 1>And so.

0:52:06.440 --> 0:52:11.000
<v Speaker 5>It raises the question of, you know, have they exhausted

0:52:11.080 --> 0:52:12.879
<v Speaker 5>kind of a target bank in the sense that they're

0:52:12.920 --> 0:52:16.600
<v Speaker 5>not you know, they're not able to produce new pictures,

0:52:17.440 --> 0:52:20.600
<v Speaker 5>which is strange because they have you know, free reign

0:52:20.680 --> 0:52:22.880
<v Speaker 5>over the Iranian sky and.

0:52:24.400 --> 0:52:24.560
<v Speaker 3>All.

0:52:25.320 --> 0:52:27.080
<v Speaker 2>This is not exclusive to Israel.

0:52:27.400 --> 0:52:31.919
<v Speaker 5>All of these belligerent powers are capable of bombing even

0:52:32.440 --> 0:52:36.320
<v Speaker 5>something that has nothing, no military value whatsoever and putting

0:52:36.320 --> 0:52:38.160
<v Speaker 5>a clip out and saying that it's a command and

0:52:38.200 --> 0:52:40.840
<v Speaker 5>control center. So it's not like they have a shortage

0:52:40.880 --> 0:52:44.080
<v Speaker 5>of videos. It's just it shows I think it shows

0:52:44.080 --> 0:52:48.560
<v Speaker 5>a sloppiness and potentially shows you know that they're that

0:52:48.600 --> 0:52:51.919
<v Speaker 5>they're really scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point.

0:52:52.280 --> 0:52:54.759
<v Speaker 1>Well, and this was also a significant in that vein

0:52:55.560 --> 0:52:58.839
<v Speaker 1>NBC News is reporting that according to the seniors really

0:52:58.880 --> 0:53:01.799
<v Speaker 1>intelligence official, only sixty five percent of Iranian missiles were

0:53:01.840 --> 0:53:03.799
<v Speaker 1>intercepted in the past twenty four hours. That's down from

0:53:03.840 --> 0:53:06.359
<v Speaker 1>nearly ninety percent the day before. And we have other

0:53:06.440 --> 0:53:10.200
<v Speaker 1>reports as well that they're having to ration interceptors. I mean,

0:53:10.280 --> 0:53:13.200
<v Speaker 1>this is something something that Soccer was talking about before.

0:53:14.120 --> 0:53:17.000
<v Speaker 1>It's just part of why you know, they're obviously we

0:53:17.160 --> 0:53:19.200
<v Speaker 1>have to be involved. We've been and not have to be,

0:53:19.320 --> 0:53:21.239
<v Speaker 1>but we choose to be involved and have been from

0:53:21.280 --> 0:53:24.360
<v Speaker 1>the beginning and I think this is one of the

0:53:25.680 --> 0:53:28.640
<v Speaker 1>hopes of the Iranians probably is that they can learn

0:53:28.760 --> 0:53:32.120
<v Speaker 1>more about the missile defense systems and that as time

0:53:32.320 --> 0:53:38.120
<v Speaker 1>goes on, they will you know, have to further ration interceptors,

0:53:38.200 --> 0:53:40.880
<v Speaker 1>and also that they will have more understanding of how

0:53:40.960 --> 0:53:43.520
<v Speaker 1>to evade those interceptors and those missile defense systems.

0:53:43.880 --> 0:53:45.880
<v Speaker 5>And on top of that they use their older and

0:53:45.960 --> 0:53:50.200
<v Speaker 5>crappier missiles as as you would expect logically, the first

0:53:50.239 --> 0:53:52.359
<v Speaker 5>ones out of the gate were the cheap, cheap, old

0:53:52.440 --> 0:53:54.319
<v Speaker 5>guys that aren't as good because so do.

0:53:54.360 --> 0:53:55.920
<v Speaker 1>We know, we know that for a fact, because I

0:53:56.000 --> 0:53:57.360
<v Speaker 1>saw that speculation.

0:53:56.920 --> 0:53:58.239
<v Speaker 2>Too, Yeah, yeah, yeah.

0:53:58.400 --> 0:54:01.319
<v Speaker 5>And so because you know that when when your first

0:54:01.400 --> 0:54:03.839
<v Speaker 5>volley comes in, they're gonna they have their entire bank

0:54:03.920 --> 0:54:06.600
<v Speaker 5>of interceptors ready to go. So you throw the cheapest

0:54:06.640 --> 0:54:10.560
<v Speaker 5>stuff that's the worst, and so the interceptors then take

0:54:10.600 --> 0:54:13.759
<v Speaker 5>all of that out and then gradually you start you know,

0:54:13.920 --> 0:54:17.320
<v Speaker 5>using their that and you know, hypersonic missiles and you know,

0:54:17.480 --> 0:54:22.320
<v Speaker 5>yesterday they fired fired one. It sounds like one missile

0:54:22.360 --> 0:54:25.000
<v Speaker 5>at Bearsheva and it got through, but it seems to

0:54:25.120 --> 0:54:27.680
<v Speaker 5>maybe have missed his target. It landed right near the

0:54:27.920 --> 0:54:31.600
<v Speaker 5>Microsoft building there, and then the IRGC said they were

0:54:31.600 --> 0:54:35.440
<v Speaker 5>actually aiming for the Microsoft building, which may have been

0:54:36.400 --> 0:54:42.360
<v Speaker 5>because you know, citing Microsoft's role and in Israeli industrial complex,

0:54:42.400 --> 0:54:44.960
<v Speaker 5>which may have been kind of reverse engineered. Cope like that,

0:54:45.680 --> 0:54:49.319
<v Speaker 5>they're probably aiming for Elbot Systems, which is nearby there,

0:54:50.120 --> 0:54:52.480
<v Speaker 5>but hit closer to Microsoft, so that they're like, you know,

0:54:52.520 --> 0:54:54.200
<v Speaker 5>there's a lot of reverse engineering. We're like, oh, yeah,

0:54:54.239 --> 0:54:57.000
<v Speaker 5>that's definitely what we were aiming for. After you try

0:54:57.000 --> 0:55:00.600
<v Speaker 5>to figure out where it landed. And then we're getting

0:55:00.640 --> 0:55:03.400
<v Speaker 5>reports right now that there was another missile landed right

0:55:03.440 --> 0:55:06.080
<v Speaker 5>around Bearsheva. So you know, if they're two for two

0:55:06.440 --> 0:55:10.320
<v Speaker 5>in Beersheva getting through you know, missile defenses, that allows

0:55:10.360 --> 0:55:13.120
<v Speaker 5>them to shoot many fewer missiles and still have the

0:55:13.160 --> 0:55:15.480
<v Speaker 5>same amount of impact. You know, if they were firing

0:55:15.560 --> 0:55:17.640
<v Speaker 5>off you know, three hundred in the beginning just to

0:55:17.760 --> 0:55:21.759
<v Speaker 5>land ten or twenty, that's not a sustainable pace if

0:55:21.840 --> 0:55:24.759
<v Speaker 5>you have, you know, a missiles missile stockpile in the

0:55:24.840 --> 0:55:28.320
<v Speaker 5>low thousands. But if you're hitting at a fifty to

0:55:28.400 --> 0:55:33.840
<v Speaker 5>one hundred percent clip, that causes a lot more damage

0:55:33.880 --> 0:55:35.600
<v Speaker 5>and helps you win in a war of attrition.

0:55:36.680 --> 0:55:37.280
<v Speaker 4>I think sager.

0:55:37.320 --> 0:55:37.960
<v Speaker 1>Do you have to jump?

0:55:38.239 --> 0:55:41.960
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I do, unfortunately, but yeah, just last thoughts is

0:55:42.560 --> 0:55:45.400
<v Speaker 2>I think we have a twenty five percent chance of

0:55:45.440 --> 0:55:49.439
<v Speaker 2>avoiding miss probably seventy five percent chance. By the way,

0:55:49.640 --> 0:55:53.840
<v Speaker 2>literally as we're talking, Israel's getting rocked by ballistic missiles.

0:55:53.920 --> 0:55:56.080
<v Speaker 2>In terms of at least some of the images that

0:55:56.239 --> 0:55:58.879
<v Speaker 2>have made it out. They are going to come under

0:55:58.920 --> 0:56:02.439
<v Speaker 2>intense pressure in the government. They are going to ramp

0:56:02.560 --> 0:56:05.880
<v Speaker 2>up regime change and destabilization efforts to the best of

0:56:05.960 --> 0:56:10.040
<v Speaker 2>their possible ability. And yeah, I think it's going to

0:56:10.080 --> 0:56:12.719
<v Speaker 2>be a very, very dangerous two weeks. But you know,

0:56:12.800 --> 0:56:16.200
<v Speaker 2>I'm hoping for some success coming out of Europe and

0:56:16.320 --> 0:56:19.440
<v Speaker 2>at least see what they're able to get out of

0:56:19.440 --> 0:56:22.279
<v Speaker 2>the Uranians and publicly as well, you know, some of

0:56:22.320 --> 0:56:24.600
<v Speaker 2>the statements to get them on the record, and presumably

0:56:24.600 --> 0:56:27.359
<v Speaker 2>a press conference with some statements from the Iranian foreign minister,

0:56:27.400 --> 0:56:29.280
<v Speaker 2>they could at least keep us out of the woods.

0:56:29.320 --> 0:56:31.520
<v Speaker 2>But I also want to echo Emily's warning, we could

0:56:31.520 --> 0:56:33.600
<v Speaker 2>be in a forty eight hour time window. This could

0:56:33.600 --> 0:56:36.319
<v Speaker 2>all be fake, and this could buy Monday on our show,

0:56:36.600 --> 0:56:38.160
<v Speaker 2>we can be covering a four dough strike.

0:56:38.560 --> 0:56:40.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, all right, Well, as we let Sager go. I

0:56:40.960 --> 0:56:44.839
<v Speaker 1>think we're also going to conclude the free portion. Premiums,

0:56:45.320 --> 0:56:47.160
<v Speaker 1>We're going to cover a bunch of more stuff. I've

0:56:47.160 --> 0:56:48.640
<v Speaker 1>got a bunch of clips I got Dave Smith on

0:56:48.719 --> 0:56:50.359
<v Speaker 1>Piers Morgan. You guys, now you don't want to miss

0:56:50.480 --> 0:56:53.880
<v Speaker 1>on on that. I've had it lady. Even Emily has

0:56:53.920 --> 0:56:56.359
<v Speaker 1>to admit she was kind of cooking on CNN. She's

0:56:56.520 --> 0:56:58.480
<v Speaker 1>like more based than we expected her to be, so

0:56:58.560 --> 0:57:01.640
<v Speaker 1>that's kind of cool. We've got more coming out of Israel,

0:57:01.680 --> 0:57:05.280
<v Speaker 1>in particular BBNAT and Yahoo is paying a personal price, guys,

0:57:05.520 --> 0:57:08.200
<v Speaker 1>and I want to share with you what that personal

0:57:08.280 --> 0:57:10.719
<v Speaker 1>price is. And we all should thoughts in prayers with

0:57:10.840 --> 0:57:13.880
<v Speaker 1>Bib and his family during this very difficult time. And

0:57:14.440 --> 0:57:15.920
<v Speaker 1>so in any case, a bunch of stuff to get to.

0:57:16.000 --> 0:57:17.880
<v Speaker 1>We'll try to get to zor On maybe talk about Obama.

0:57:17.960 --> 0:57:19.800
<v Speaker 1>See how much we get to. But for those of

0:57:19.840 --> 0:57:22.200
<v Speaker 1>you who want to join us for the full show

0:57:22.320 --> 0:57:26.120
<v Speaker 1>Breakingpoints dot Com, that monthly subscription is back.

0:57:26.160 --> 0:57:29.960
<v Speaker 4>So you know, partake in that to your full delight,

0:57:30.160 --> 0:57:31.000
<v Speaker 4>see how you like it.

0:57:31.400 --> 0:57:34.160
<v Speaker 1>And for premiums, we'll see in just about all right, guys,

0:57:34.200 --> 0:57:36.640
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for watching the free portion of

0:57:36.680 --> 0:57:38.880
<v Speaker 1>the Friday Show, we're going to move into some premium

0:57:39.040 --> 0:57:41.640
<v Speaker 1>bonus content, so if you want to watch that as well,

0:57:41.760 --> 0:57:44.880
<v Speaker 1>make sure to go and subscribe at breakingpoints dot com.

0:57:45.080 --> 0:57:47.360
<v Speaker 1>And for all of you guys who are already premium subscribers,

0:57:47.600 --> 0:57:48.880
<v Speaker 1>that portion is going to start right now,