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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking Points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent

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Speaker 2: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,

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Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Friday. We've got the whole team here,

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Speaker 1: plus special guests. Congressman Rocana, fresh off a THEO Von appearance.

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Speaker 3: Great to see Zar, great to say you not quite

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Speaker 3: a breaking points appearance, but you know it was a

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Speaker 3: good lot.

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Speaker 4: This is are you yeah, what are you talking about?

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Speaker 2: You get the full team, very rarely the team he's.

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Speaker 1: Talking about THEO Von does. It isn't quite as big

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Speaker 1: as the Breaking Points appearent, but you know that's very kind,

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Speaker 1: you know. So we're gonna talk to the Congressman here

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Speaker 1: for a little while. Then he's gonna run and catch

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Speaker 1: a flight. There's a bunch of updates with regard to

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Speaker 1: Iron and Israel we want to get to. We'll see

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Speaker 1: how far we are able to get with that. We've

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Speaker 1: also got some Zora on news we might jump on.

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Speaker 1: We've got some Obama comments we might get to here

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Speaker 1: is she ask the congressman about the Obama comments, and

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Speaker 1: then Ryan is turtle Boy joining? Is that a thing

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Speaker 1: that's happening?

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Speaker 5: Oh you're muted, Ryan, Yes, Producer Griffin says, the Turtle

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Speaker 5: Boy will be in the back end of the show.

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Speaker 5: So if there's ever been a reason to become a

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Speaker 5: paying subscriber, that's the guy.

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Speaker 6: I was thinking that when I get off, I've Google

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Speaker 6: I heard her boy, I.

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Speaker 3: Just have never heard.

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Speaker 5: I don't have to mean make sure it's doctor you

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Speaker 5: google doctor turtle Boy, not just turtle Boy. He's the

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Speaker 5: he's the local Massachusetts reporter who kind of broke the

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Speaker 5: Karen Reid's story out into in a national view and

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Speaker 5: he's so he's now on taking his victory laps.

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Speaker 2: After her acquittal.

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Speaker 4: Gotcha.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So lots to get to you in the show.

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Speaker 1: So first, Congressman, I wanted to start off by getting

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Speaker 1: you to react to a little bit of you and

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Speaker 1: just play a little piece of this. Theovan appearance can

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Speaker 1: tell us what your you know, what your experience was

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Speaker 1: and what he sort of wanted to focus on here.

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Speaker 4: I thought, I thought this part was interesting.

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Speaker 3: He started off the podcast world run Now you like

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Speaker 3: react to yourself on podcasts exactly?

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well, and this is, you know, exclusive, your first reaction

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Speaker 1: to you being on So in any case, he wanted

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Speaker 1: to start off talking about Ron talking about Gaza. I'm

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Speaker 1: about like thirty minutes into the podcast thus far. But

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Speaker 1: let's go ahead and pick up with this part and

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Speaker 1: then we'll get your reaction.

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Speaker 7: It is trumple is ilmly Trump afraid of it?

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Speaker 6: Yah.

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Speaker 7: I I don't understand that, you know, because Trump certainly

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Speaker 7: feels like he's seems he is a guy who does

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Speaker 7: not seem afraid to say what he wants to say.

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Speaker 8: I don't think I don't know what it is because

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Speaker 8: I I want Trump to do the right thing, Like

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Speaker 8: I want him to start to end the war in Gaza,

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Speaker 8: to actually figure out how we get peace there.

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Speaker 4: And I think he could.

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Speaker 8: He could if he picks up the phone and he says,

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Speaker 8: then yell, you're done, then you know is going to

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Speaker 8: stop the bombing. And then you know, I was going

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Speaker 8: to say, okay, but we got Jmas. I can't stay

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Speaker 8: here with him, and Trump can say, Okay, I'm going

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Speaker 8: to help you get rid of Hamas, but you can't

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Speaker 8: keep bombing and killing women and children. That's not getting

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Speaker 8: rid of Hamas.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it's freaking crazy, dude.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's just like.

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Speaker 8: So, you get Egypt, you get Jordan, you get Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 8: I call it the twenty three state solution. You get

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Speaker 8: all of those erabors.

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Speaker 7: Mississippi, dude, I'll tell you that we can give Mississippi

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Speaker 7: to palaes On I've been saying that, for give.

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Speaker 1: Mississippi to palestinevonnssolves finds Middle East piece. But Congressman, what

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Speaker 1: was your experience and were there any particular moments that

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Speaker 1: we should really pay attention to or that you found

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Speaker 1: particularly noteworthy.

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Speaker 3: I was amazed by his passion, his empathy, his outrage

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Speaker 3: with what's going on in Gaza.

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Speaker 6: I mean you could just see it in his voice.

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Speaker 3: It was just this utter frustration that the United States

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Speaker 3: was complicit in the killing.

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Speaker 6: Of women and children.

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Speaker 3: And theobon is always someone who takes the side of

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Speaker 3: the under and also kind of just reflects American values

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Speaker 3: of someone who hasn't thought read every bookings paper.

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Speaker 6: He's just like, look, this is wrong.

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Speaker 3: And I was also struck by how concerned scare outraging

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Speaker 3: was that we were thinking of getting into another more

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Speaker 3: in Iran.

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Speaker 2: That's so Congress, and that's actually one of the main

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Speaker 2: things we wanted to focus on with you is the

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Speaker 2: role here of the Democratic Party and of the opposition.

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Speaker 2: One of the things that's really rhyming for me going

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Speaker 2: back and really thinking about what happened in Iraq is

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Speaker 2: I don't see a mobilization of the Democratic establishment on

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Speaker 2: the Iran question. You know, we've had Thomas Massey and

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Speaker 2: leaders like you who have introduced, you know, the need

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Speaker 2: for a declaration or an approval by Congress. I guess

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Speaker 2: we can give it to the Bush administration at least

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Speaker 2: they went to the links with that. But here the

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Speaker 2: Trump administration has taken completely unilateral approach and we have

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Speaker 2: not yet seen calls from major Democratic leaders you know

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Speaker 2: for this, Yeah, exactly, Like as you say here, what

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Speaker 2: does this mean from Senator Schumer, I'm just wondering if

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Speaker 2: you could expound on that and the lack of leadership

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Speaker 2: right now from the Democratic Party on the Iran war question.

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Speaker 3: It's deeply disappointing. This is like the Iraq War moment.

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Speaker 3: The Democratic Party should be in unison, screaming from the rooftop,

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Speaker 3: we don't want another war in the Middle East. Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump won the presidency because he said that the Iraq

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Speaker 3: War was a disaster, and Jeb Bush wasn't willing to

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Speaker 3: say that. He won over a lot of people who

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Speaker 3: previously supported Democrats because he committed that we weren't going

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Speaker 3: to get into another war in the Middle East.

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Speaker 6: We've had Iraq War cheerleaders.

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Speaker 3: In our party who ran for president John Kerry, Hillary Clinton,

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Speaker 3: John Edwards. It didn't work out so well for them.

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Speaker 3: And then we had people who stood opposed to the war,

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Speaker 3: like Barack Obama, who did very very well at Bertie Sanders.

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Speaker 3: My view is that this is the moment the Democratic

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Speaker 3: Party can reclaim the anti war mantle. Obviously, we should

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Speaker 3: have unison of Democrats on my War Powers Resolution in

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Speaker 3: the House. This isn't even a close call, and we

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Speaker 3: should have Senator Schumer instead of saying, oh, I don't know,

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Speaker 3: maybe they should strike him.

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Speaker 6: Maybe Trump isn't tough enough.

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Speaker 3: He should be behind Tim Kaine and saying every Democrat

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Speaker 3: needs to oppose this war.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, just from a cynical perspective, it seems like if

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Speaker 5: you're a politician looking for future advantage, the play here

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Speaker 5: would be, even if you're not against war, would be

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Speaker 5: to speak out against war and reap those benefits going forward.

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Speaker 5: At the same time, the No King's protests had, you know,

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Speaker 5: hundreds of thousands of people around the country. You have

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Speaker 5: Democrats saying that he's an authoritarian, that he's a threat

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Speaker 5: to democracy. They've been saying that for a very long time.

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Speaker 5: How do they lend this idea that Okay, yes, he's

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Speaker 5: a threat to democracy's authoritarian tyrant maybe, but I'm okay

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Speaker 5: with this war, that this tyrant is going to operate.

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Speaker 5: When you talk to people privately, what is holding them

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Speaker 5: back from just coming out with a full throated opposition

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Speaker 5: to Donald Trump just launching a war against Iran.

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Speaker 3: Well, your first point, Garry Ryan, was kay that it's

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Speaker 3: not just that we should be opposed to this war,

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Speaker 3: but we should be opposed to Donald Trump waking up

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Speaker 3: and deciding whether to commit us to a war based

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Speaker 3: on the last conversation he had. I mean, everyone should

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Speaker 3: be for this coming to Congress, especially if you think

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Speaker 3: that Crump has overreached his constitutional authority and consolidated power

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Speaker 3: a number of people or they have been itching, some

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Speaker 3: of them candidly in the Congress to take out Iran's

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Speaker 3: nuclear facilities. And this is something that there are a

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Speaker 3: number of Democrats and Republicans that they want to do this,

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Speaker 3: and they think magically, Okay, we're going to have a

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Speaker 3: military strike against Ferdoh and Iran will not have a

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Speaker 3: nuclear bomb and then everything will be peaceful in the

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Speaker 3: Middle East. Well, first of all, we know that this

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Speaker 3: story has been told before. We're going to have a

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Speaker 3: successful military operation. Everything will work out. We took out

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Speaker 3: saddamusin then what happened. We got stuck for almost a

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Speaker 3: decade in Iraq. We're going to get rid of l

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Speaker 3: Kaida in Afghaniskan. Everything will be fine. We got to

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Speaker 3: stuck for nearly twenty years in Afghanistan. The idea that

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Speaker 3: we can strike for Doh and that Iran isn't going

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Speaker 3: to retaliate against American troops in Iraq, that they aren't

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Speaker 3: going to retaliate, but counter terrorism against Americans is utter

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Speaker 3: naive thinking. It's going to draw us into a conflict

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Speaker 3: and for what we don't even know if the bunker

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Speaker 3: bombs can destroy the entire Ferdeau site, at best, it's

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Speaker 3: going to push Iran back two to three years in

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Speaker 3: developing nuclear weapons. And they're going to get then rip

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Speaker 3: up the NPT. They're a put involvement in the NPT.

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Speaker 3: They're going to push out all inspectors. And we know

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Speaker 3: in the past, the Obama deal had it so that

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Speaker 3: Iran couldn't enrich beyond.

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Speaker 6: Five percent at any place other than the Tans.

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Speaker 3: Now they're enriching at sixty percent at Florideaux. We know

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Speaker 3: we've had a deal before. Even if you think the

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Speaker 3: deal wasn't perfect, it was much much, much better than

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Speaker 3: the situation we have now or the situation we will

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Speaker 3: have if Iran gets out of the NPT and kicks

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Speaker 3: out all the inspectors. So those are just the facts.

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Speaker 3: I don't know why the Democratic Party isn't bolder. It's

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Speaker 3: a symptom not just of being acquiescent to another war.

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Speaker 6: It's a symptom of a lack of leadership.

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Speaker 3: You know, I almost see more conviction on Lindsay Graham

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Speaker 3: being like, let's Obama.

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Speaker 4: Mean, yeah, I don't right position, that's.

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Speaker 9: The worst of all world well, in Congrison, can I

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Speaker 9: ask to what extent you assess? I mean, we are

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Speaker 9: all looking around and thinking why Democrats, even from the

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Speaker 9: cynical perspective that Ryan raised, are you not, you know,

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Speaker 9: mustering the same level of opposition that Soccer pointed out

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Speaker 9: you used to see during.

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Speaker 4: The Iraq War.

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Speaker 2: Why is that not happening?

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Speaker 9: And to what extent would you attribute that to the

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Speaker 9: donor class of the Democratic Party? Do you think that's

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Speaker 9: who's in the ear of truck Schumer, stopping him and

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Speaker 9: other high profile Democrats from going all in with a

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Speaker 9: sense of conviction, first of all on the war powers

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Speaker 9: question and then on the question of the war itself.

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Speaker 3: I think it's the foreign policy hawks in the belt

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Speaker 3: Way that people listen to.

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Speaker 6: I'm sure there is.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Schumer wasn't for the Obama nuclear deal.

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Speaker 6: So Obama neclearion. He was one of the cheerleaders for

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Speaker 6: the war in Iraq.

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Speaker 3: Like, how are these people still around with credibility of

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Speaker 3: Ford policy?

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Speaker 6: Why should we care at all?

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Speaker 4: Should he resign.

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Speaker 6: Another war in the Middle East?

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Speaker 1: Like why did you think he resigned? Congressman? At this point, it.

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Speaker 6: Almost doesn't matter.

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Speaker 3: He should be seen as totally irrelevant, like the average

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Speaker 3: person on the street had more.

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Speaker 6: Common sense at the Middle East than Chuck Schumer.

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Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer's record on the Middle East is opposing Obama Iran.

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Speaker 3: Deal is cheerleading George W. Bush to get into a

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Speaker 3: war in ira is now having nonsensical statements about Tim

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Speaker 3: Kaine's war power resolution.

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Speaker 6: Why does he matter on this debate? What does matter?

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 3: People say, oh, go on podcasts, go on theovon, and

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Speaker 3: they're usually thinking about it from an electoral perspective, And

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Speaker 3: of course they're right that we should be going on

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Speaker 3: these podcasts. But you know why they should go on

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Speaker 3: theovon because Deal levonn talks to truck drivers and talks

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Speaker 3: to folks or working in construction and industry and young

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Speaker 3: kids or recent college graduates, and he's reflecting what most

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Speaker 3: Americans are thinking about issues. Agree with him or not,

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Speaker 3: And he is saying overwhelmingly, people don't want another war.

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Speaker 3: They're afraid that they may get called up and have

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Speaker 3: to serve in Iran. They're concerned about the costs. They're

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Speaker 3: wondering why we're not spending that money in time in

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Speaker 3: the United States. And I feel like instead of listening

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Speaker 3: to the people at Basing Chuck sure where maybe this

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Speaker 3: party should be listening to people who are talking to

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Speaker 3: theobon and we do much better in terms of building

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Speaker 3: a coalition, and we one need these ridiculous twenty million

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Speaker 3: consultant studies that are going.

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Speaker 6: To go to the same people that are advising Chuck Schumer.

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Speaker 1: Unbelievable And I wanted to ask you about this though.

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Speaker 1: We've got Thomas Massey sponsored the War Power Resolution. You're

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Speaker 1: one of the you know, the lead co sponsors here.

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Speaker 1: There's no other Republicans on it though, So for all

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Speaker 1: the talk of America, first, you know the split in

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Speaker 1: MAGA et cetera. And there's zero Republicans on the Senate

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Speaker 1: version of it. So what is the reluctance here? What's

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Speaker 1: going on?

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Speaker 6: You're right?

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Speaker 3: I mean at the base of MAGA, I would say

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Speaker 3: at least a third of them don't want this war.

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Speaker 3: And you have very outspoken people like Tucker Carlton, like

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Speaker 3: Steve Bannon, like marsh Leay Taylor Green. What they're saying.

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Speaker 3: The reason they're giving for us for not getting on

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Speaker 3: this War Power Resolution as well, there's not a war. Well,

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Speaker 3: don't you think traders should weigh in before there's a war.

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Speaker 4: I mean, also there is a war.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's just a nonsense way of thinking about it,

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Speaker 1: but go ahead, yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean they're saying, well, we haven't struck Iran yet,

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Speaker 3: that the United States hasn't tried now. Ted Cruz admitted

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Speaker 3: on that Pepper Carlton tape that the clip that we

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Speaker 3: are helping Israel in the bombing of a run. But

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Speaker 3: the point is that they're trying to avoid the issue

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Speaker 3: because they don't want to get in the cross heres

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Speaker 3: of Donald Trump. I believe that the pressure is going

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Speaker 3: to build on the MAGA base for some of these

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Speaker 3: Republicans to break and look, people say it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 3: I do think the fact that Trump is saying now,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to wait two weeks is partly a recognition

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Speaker 3: that the bunker bombs may not even achieve the objective.

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Speaker 6: But it's also.

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Speaker 3: Partly a recognition that a lot of the MAGA base

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Speaker 3: is upset and he's hearing the anti war sentiment. And

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Speaker 3: if the Democratic Party was unified in our opposition, maybe

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Speaker 3: we could actually prevent this war. I mean, it would

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Speaker 3: influence Donald Trump, who's so susceptible to where public opinion

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Speaker 3: is it is not just a lack of leadership for

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Speaker 3: how do we win? It's an actual moral moment. Like

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Speaker 3: you're in Congress for these big decisions, and the vast

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Speaker 3: majority of members of Congress have just been solid.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, go ahead, Ryan.

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Speaker 5: So, just speaking of going on THEO Vaughn, have you

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Speaker 5: reached out all to Bannon or Tucker Carlson to appear

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Speaker 5: on their program, because that seems like the kind of

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Speaker 5: seal that hasn't been hasn't been broken yet. But if

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Speaker 5: you listen to you know, as you have been lately,

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Speaker 5: a lot of you know, Tucker Carlson, like you know,

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Speaker 5: eighty percent of the time he's making he's making a

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Speaker 5: lot of sense. Then he goes then yeah.

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Speaker 3: Tucker, and on some of the clips, I'm just concidered

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Speaker 3: b I go on, He's going to start asking me

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Speaker 3: the population of every country.

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Speaker 2: Do your job and study. I have no sympathy.

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Speaker 4: You can handle that a little better, guy.

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Speaker 5: But also if you say, look, I don't want to

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Speaker 5: invade that country, therefore I don't need to know their population,

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Speaker 5: but you know, I do.

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Speaker 6: Think we need to.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'd be open to going on. But more importantly,

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Speaker 3: I think we need to be sharing their clubs, sharing

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Speaker 3: what they're saying. Again, I was on CNN and they

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Speaker 3: thought they had a gotcha question saying, oh, that means

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Speaker 3: you agree with Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlton, And yes

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Speaker 3: it does.

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Speaker 6: On this issue, I agree with them, and.

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Speaker 3: I'm hoping that they actually can convince some of the

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Speaker 3: Republicans to get.

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Speaker 2: On one of the things. Congressmen, I know you're on

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Speaker 2: the Senate Armed Services Committee, so maybe you can speak

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Speaker 2: a little bit to this. There has been now open

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Speaker 2: questioning by Donald Trump and actually a lot in the

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Speaker 2: open source environment as to whether these massive ordinance penetrators

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Speaker 2: could even accomplish the goal of taking out the fourdoh

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Speaker 2: nuclear facility. So I'm wondering, you know, based on your

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Speaker 2: own knowledge, I'm sure you've said in briefings and others,

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Speaker 2: what your assessment of this easy strike which is being

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Speaker 2: pushed by the Sentcom Commander Carilla, and what the reality

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Speaker 2: of something like that could look like?

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Speaker 6: Well, based on.

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Speaker 3: Public information, I don't know, and I don't think most

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Speaker 3: people knows the real issue. I mean, first of all,

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Speaker 3: maybe it's fifty to fifty over, but it could be

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Speaker 3: too deep. Maybe we hit some of it, but don't

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Speaker 3: get all of it. And the reality is the best

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Speaker 3: case scenario that we hit all of it. We don't

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Speaker 3: know how widespread Iran's nuclear capability is. We know that

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Speaker 3: they have scientists who can rebuild it. We know they

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Speaker 3: have spare centrifuges. You're not going to destroy all of it,

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Speaker 3: and we know that within a year to three years

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Speaker 3: they can start to rebuild their nuclear sites. Then why

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Speaker 3: because they're going to then kick out the inspectors. We

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Speaker 3: won't even know where they're building it. And the lesson

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Speaker 3: they'll draw is the lesson that Pakistan and North Korean

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Speaker 3: drove that if you have nuclear bomb you're safe from

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Speaker 3: American invasion. If you don't, you could be Livia, Iraq,

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Speaker 3: or Afghanistan or Iran. The logic on this makes makes

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Speaker 3: no sense for us to get and especially when we

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Speaker 3: had a deal where Iran was committed to less than

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Speaker 3: five percent in rich Even if they were cheating, let's

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Speaker 3: say they were at ten percent fifty percent, they weren't

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Speaker 3: at sixty percent, and so the effort needs to be

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Speaker 3: to get a deal.

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Speaker 6: I was one of the Democrats, so I got criticized

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Speaker 6: for this too. I don't make every call.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 3: I was cheering Donald Trump when he said let's get

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Speaker 3: a deal Trump. Schumer was saying, oh, you're making side

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Speaker 3: deals with a rod. I was like, great, let him

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Speaker 3: make a deal.

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Speaker 6: With it, right.

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Speaker 1: Taco Trump making me no, no, no, let him let

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Speaker 1: him do.

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Speaker 2: Taco might be one of the most destructive like things

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Speaker 2: that's ever happened to Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, horrible, horrible, All right, Congress, I know we got

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Speaker 1: to let you go. Thank you so much for jumping

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Speaker 1: on this morning. It's almost craz photography and get your insights.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, We appreciate it.

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Speaker 6: Take care.

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Speaker 1: So he brought up the two weeks thing. The White

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Speaker 1: House is floating. Caroline Lovitt said, like, oh, Trump's going

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Speaker 1: to decide in the next two weeks. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: just like, I don't know what do you guys make

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Speaker 1: of it, because I just you can't trust anything these

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Speaker 1: people say. It could be another faint to just, you know,

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Speaker 1: let the Iranian sort of relax again before they bomb

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Speaker 1: them in five minutes.

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Speaker 4: I don't know what's yours.

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Speaker 2: What I think And this is based on a little

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Speaker 2: bit of some people I've had it to is and

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Speaker 2: at first time he's at the stage. What we're dealing with.

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Speaker 2: This is not a normal White House. We are basically

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Speaker 2: in the court of Versailles, all right. No one can

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Speaker 2: criticize the legitimacy of the monarch. So that's why, you know,

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Speaker 2: Steve Bannon and Tucker have to target the neo cons

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Speaker 2: who were talking with him. Everything is about gaining the

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Speaker 2: audience of the king and of the ear of the king.

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Speaker 2: And the king can vacillate from time to time, but

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Speaker 2: his own legitimacy of the throne cannot be called into question.

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Speaker 2: He's all powerful and he's all knowing. So what's really

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Speaker 2: happened I think over the last couple of days is

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Speaker 2: I can say equivocally the Bannon lunch was a pivotal moment.

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Speaker 2: So Steve Bannon was yesterday at the White House, had

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Speaker 2: lunch with Donald Trump. I don't think he said anything

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Speaker 2: different in his private comments than he did publicly. So

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Speaker 2: that's very encouraging, and that did lead to the so

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Speaker 2: called two week debt.

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Speaker 6: Life.

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Speaker 2: Now, if it were up to Donald Trump, I'm actually

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Speaker 2: relatively confident that we would be heading towards some sort

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Speaker 2: of diplomatic solution. The problem is, of course, the Israeli

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Speaker 2: question on the side, because what Israel now has is

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Speaker 2: two weeks to mount the pressure campaign of the century.

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Speaker 2: First and foremost, there's a credible report out today from

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Speaker 2: the Iranian Foreign minister who's in Geneva to speak with

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Speaker 2: the European foreign ministers, that somebody tried to kill him,

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Speaker 2: possibly even the Israelis and or advisors around them. Remember,

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Speaker 2: they already took out one of the negotiators who spoke

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Speaker 2: with Steve Wikoff. There's also crystal maybe you can pull

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Speaker 2: this up. I tweeted it out from the Times of Israel,

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Speaker 2: the Israeli Foreign the Israeli Defense Minister today said he

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Speaker 2: has officially greenlit strikes on the regime. We're not even

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Speaker 2: talking specifically about nuclear facilities. They are in the next

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Speaker 2: two weeks basically have a free military hand to ramp

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Speaker 2: up military strikes on the Iranian regime and specifically to

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Speaker 2: try to kill all of the people around the Ayatola. So,

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Speaker 2: like I said, if it were just up to Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: I genuinely do believe we would be heading to this.

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Speaker 2: It does seem that he's been spooked a bit by

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Speaker 2: some of these reports and questioning the scentcom intelligence as

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Speaker 2: to whether the fod Oho facility really could be taken

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Speaker 2: out by the US military. But Israel really could, you know,

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Speaker 2: really could force our hand. Yeah, you could see it

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Speaker 2: right there. Katz instructs the IDF to quote destabilize the

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Speaker 2: Iranian regime with intensified air strikes. And Israel they're not

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Speaker 2: doing well right now. I mean, I know that sounds

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Speaker 2: crazy to say, because of all their propaganda, they're running

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Speaker 2: out of interceptors. The war is costing Israel hundreds of

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Speaker 2: millions of dollars per day, per the Wall Street Journal.

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Speaker 2: Commercial air shutdown is devastating the economy. Nobody's going to work.

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Speaker 2: You know, how can you work when every single night

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Speaker 2: you're spending in a bomb shelter looking at your phone.

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Speaker 2: So their society is in chaos. Every single time one

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Speaker 2: of those interceptor gets fired, it's seven hundred thousand to

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Speaker 2: two million dollars. The flight cost of an F thirty

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Speaker 2: five is, like, I don't even know, thirty five thousand

441
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 2: dollars per hour. They're going bankrupt, you know, and will,

442
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 2: according to their own former like bank official I was

443
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 2: reading this morning, we're looking at at a bill well

444
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 2: over twelve billion a single month of the war in Iran,

445
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 2: which no, not a lot for US, but that's a

446
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 2: lot over for them. So I would say like we

447
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,880
Speaker 2: have had a factional victory in getting to the two

448
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: week period. But obviously I really don't think Trump is

449
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 2: the principal actor here, especially because the Iranians won't meet

450
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,200
Speaker 2: with us. They're meeting right now with the Europeans. It's

451
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,679
Speaker 2: the Israelis who are going to try to destabilize, and

452
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 2: then it's really Trump and to the extent that he

453
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 2: wants to insert himself as the primary policy maker in

454
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 2: this process.

455
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think, sorry curious and your guys to

456
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,159
Speaker 5: take on this, but like if fifty years from now

457
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 5: when they look back at kind of how the conflict

458
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 5: overall between the United States and the up and coming

459
00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 5: powers played out, the US decision based on pressure from

460
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:05,680
Speaker 5: the military industrial complex to go into this like Rolls

461
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:09,439
Speaker 5: Royce style approach to and literally Rolls Royce is one

462
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:13,679
Speaker 5: of the main contractors for US weapons, to make it

463
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 5: so that you have these this massively high margin industry

464
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 5: that is making lots of people very rich, despite the

465
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 5: fact that strategically the numbers are just idiotic. In other words,

466
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 5: if you're spending seven hundred thousand to two million dollars

467
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 5: on an interceptor against a missile that costs your adversary

468
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,199
Speaker 5: ten thousand or fifty thousand dollars to put together. In

469
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 5: the case of Yemen, the orders of magnitude or were

470
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 5: even further apart. Yes, we're a couple, were like a

471
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,959
Speaker 5: week plus into this, imagine a year out like It's

472
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:54,439
Speaker 5: as if nobody did the math on this. But the

473
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,479
Speaker 5: Israelis they did do the math, and the math for

474
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 5: them is, we cannot afford this. We also cannot do

475
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 5: it ourselves militarily, but the United States can afford it

476
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 5: at least in the medium term. And the United States

477
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 5: can do it militarily. So they did the math, and

478
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 5: they didn't conclude, well, I guess we shouldn't do this.

479
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,199
Speaker 5: They concluded, let's do this and just bank on the

480
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 5: fact that the United States is going to come in

481
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 5: behind us. That's a small conflict between these two countries,

482
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 5: Israel and Iran. If there is ever a bigger conflict,

483
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 5: you could just see how long the United States would

484
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 5: be able to carry on before it's it is itself

485
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 5: bankrupt isn't the right word, but just out of ammunition,

486
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:38,440
Speaker 5: we can give the ammunition.

487
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 1: Costs that actually let me find that.

488
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is a tried and true thing

489
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 2: about countries that always you know, one of the for example,

490
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 2: if you there's a great book behind me which is

491
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: about the ammunition shortage during World War One, and the

492
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: amount of ammunition they used in the first month of

493
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 2: the war is what they projected they were going to

494
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 2: have to use for the entire war. And so after

495
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,919
Speaker 2: like three weeks they're like, oh shit, They're like now what,

496
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 2: and they're like, you know what you do? You have

497
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 2: to go into total war. You have to lock down

498
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 2: your economy, you have to seize control of all of

499
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 2: the industry and basically marshal and mobilize to produce as

500
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 2: much as humanly possible, and you will literally go bankrupt,

501
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: as all of the European great powers did, basically became subservient,

502
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 2: you know, bank bank loaners to the United States of America.

503
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: That's the entire story behind the fall of the British Empire.

504
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 2: So that is a very very good lesson. Now I'm

505
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 2: not saying it can't be done, but the point is

506
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 2: is that you have to marshal your entire society towards it.

507
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 2: But you're exactly right, Ryan. From what I've read, these

508
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 2: Raelies are like, yeah, we knew we couldn't afford it.

509
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 2: We're just going to get America to pay for it,

510
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:39,920
Speaker 2: and that's the problem.

511
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 4: Usually a pretty safe bet put it.

512
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,360
Speaker 2: On the visa. Yeah, they're right though. See that's the thing.

513
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, they are right. And

514
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 2: this is why I'm still pessimist, even though I do

515
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: think we have won a victory people who want to,

516
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,919
Speaker 2: you know, to avoid this going all out. Yet I

517
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 2: do think we have one sum of a victory and

518
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 2: we may still have a chance. Right the Europeans are

519
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 2: meeting all of them. But I would still put it

520
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 2: around twenty five thirty percent, simply because of unrestrained Israeli

521
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 2: military action. There's a story out this morning from the

522
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: New York Times. The US intelligence assesses that there's two

523
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 2: scenarios right now where Iron goes for a nuclear bob.

524
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 2: One is killed the Iatola. Two is the US military

525
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,360
Speaker 2: strikes four doo. Well, you know what is the Israeli

526
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 2: option there? For they're going to try and kill the Ayatola.

527
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 2: Just yesterday they hit a bunker in which the Iatola

528
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 2: was thought to be in. Now the ostensible target was

529
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 2: one of the Iatola's quote advisors. He's survived, by the way,

530
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,360
Speaker 2: at least according to the Iranians. But that's where things are,

531
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: like you see the IDF action. And also they can

532
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 2: do math too, Ryan, they can't afford this shit for

533
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 2: too much longer. You know, already there are you know,

534
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 2: prioritizing their interceptors. Remember the censorship blackout in Israel is real.

535
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 2: We have no idea what is being hit or not.

536
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 2: And there's a reason for that, and it's because these

537
00:25:55,760 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 2: they are now having to prioritize maybe military interceptors, but

538
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 2: they have to let civilians get hit, right, So you're

539
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 2: gonna start to see the death toll rack up trade off. Sorry,

540
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 2: I would, I forgot that. I'm not talking about these

541
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 2: the most moral army in the world would never make

542
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 2: that decision. But that's my point is the Israelis are

543
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:25,880
Speaker 2: the these Reelis are the most aggressive, you know actor

544
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 2: in this and they just have such an incredible ability

545
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,719
Speaker 2: to shape events without being restrained by US policy shape events.

546
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: That's very okay, I mean I know what I'm saying.

547
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 2: They can just they can just do whatever they want

548
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 2: to do and master Trump and does not pick up

549
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 2: the phone. I mean, it's like the one there's But this.

550
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: Is Pobe's claim to fame is that he knows how

551
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: to work is over and it's freaking true.

552
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 4: I mean, he is one of us.

553
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:53,680
Speaker 6: He is an.

554
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 2: American, He's born in Philadelphia.

555
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 6: Okay, So I.

556
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 4: Really want to go Emily, Emily, what are you? What

557
00:26:59,359 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 4: are your thoughts?

558
00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: Like are you what are you hearing? And what are

559
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: your thoughts on where we stand right now?

560
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 9: Well, I think actually Sager just did a little like

561
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 9: very helpful reporting by saying, having talked to folks, he

562
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,719
Speaker 9: thinks that ban in lunch was significant because there's a

563
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 9: real question as to whether the two weeks is cold water,

564
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 9: whether it is on you know, sort of the lust

565
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 9: for another interventionist conflict, or is it a negotiating tactic

566
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 9: where Trump is, as you said at the start of

567
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 9: the show, Crystal, giving the two week window and then

568
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 9: immediately going to move the next day or the day

569
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 9: after something like that. But everything that we've just laid

570
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 9: out about the costs and about the sort of timeline

571
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 9: tells me two weeks is most likely going to be

572
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 9: two days in some respect or another. I mean, I

573
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 9: just I think the cold weeks feels like I think

574
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 9: it feels like a sort of last ditch, helpful dose

575
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 9: of cold water. But the machine has been turned on

576
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 9: and it's lurching towards the conflict. I mean, at this point,

577
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 9: it feels like turning the Titanic around to do so.

578
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 9: The two weeks, I agree with Sager, is obviously better

579
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 9: than you know, not having.

580
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 1: Us being at work, you know, directly right now.

581
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 4: But yeah, right, I mean, but for all those reasons, it's.

582
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: Like I'm very cognizant of the fact that, first of all,

583
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 1: at least according to the Trump administration, you know, the

584
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 1: last movements towards diplomatic negotiations were.

585
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 4: Just a ruse. So there's that.

586
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 1: There also previously were these reports out that effectively the

587
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 1: plan was to give Ran one final deal ultimatum that

588
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: contains in it the sort of poison pills that we

589
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: know will make it, you know, guaranteed that the Iranians

590
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: won't take it. Not to mention, if you're the Iranians

591
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: at this point, how can you negotiate with these people?

592
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 1: Like on every level, not only did you already negotiate

593
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 1: a deal with them that they just were like, yeah, well,

594
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: we're not going to do that anymore. But then they're

595
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 1: broadcasting to the world that like, yeah, we pretended we

596
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: were going to go forward with these negotiations. We were

597
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: just tricking you so that you could be attacked and destroyed.

598
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 9: So Iranian nationalism is mounting because.

599
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 4: Of all of that, Oh yeah, definitely.

600
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 2: Oh yeah. By the way, they took to the streets

601
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 2: on Friday, and actually across the Muslim world, Friday prayers

602
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 2: have reportedly been like overwhelming in their support for the Iranians,

603
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: even amongst the Sunni populations, which that's hard to do. Yeah,

604
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 2: for for everybody out there.

605
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: I mean that's what you know. Sorab and Trita have

606
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 1: been telling us. They've you know, they're seeing unfold this

607
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: rally around the I mean.

608
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 4: It's entirely predictable. It's entirely predictable.

609
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 1: Think about us after nine to eleven, right, George Wish

610
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: had like a ninety percent approval rating, and I was like, yes,

611
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: let's go.

612
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 4: So of course that's going to happen.

613
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: And I just you know, obviously the space for negotiating

614
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 1: a deal has dramatically, dramatically closed. And then to your point,

615
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 1: Cyber like, you have this incredibly nefarious actor in Netanyahu

616
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: who you can't put anything past this guy in terms

617
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 1: of what he's willing to do to make sure that

618
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: working to be there to help him effactuate the plans

619
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 1: that he has had for decades at this point.

620
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 4: So it's you know, precarious.

621
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: Is like the probably like lowest nicest thing I could

622
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:14,479
Speaker 1: say about where we sit right now.

623
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 4: It's really quite dire.

624
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's not good until I well go ahead, Ryan,

625
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 5: just real quickly to respond to what Chrystal said, I

626
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 5: actually I put that question that you asked about how

627
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 5: can they trust us to get back into negotiations directly

628
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 5: to a couple of Iranian sources, and they said, well, look,

629
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 5: the thing you have to understand is like maybe you

630
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 5: had a better perception of the United States ten years ago.

631
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 5: We never did. Like, we have never trusted the United States,

632
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 5: no matter who the president was, and so we were

633
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 5: not shocked that they pulled out of the JCPOA, and

634
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 5: we were not shocked that they attacked us. You know,

635
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 5: they in Israel attacked us. They expected it, they saw

636
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 5: it coming. So their answer was, you know, you make

637
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 5: deals not based on trust, but you know, expediency, necessity,

638
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 5: and then you put everything into the deal that you

639
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 5: possibly can to make it enforceable. And that's why, you know,

640
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 5: the Russians and the Europeans were part of the JCPOA.

641
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 2: There's some hope that.

642
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 5: Like you know, global involvement, you know, would would pressure

643
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 5: the United States to want Yeah, thinking it obviously didn't,

644
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 5: but go ahead, Yeah, let.

645
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 2: Me pick up on that, because this is actually one

646
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: thing that gives me a little bit of hope is

647
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 2: that the main parties meeting with the Iranians today are

648
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 2: the European powers and Macron actually has a quote comprehensive

649
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 2: offer to Tehran. I can read a little bit from this,

650
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 2: and I'm reading from the Financial Times Crystal. It says

651
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 2: Macrone said negotiations have to move towards the zero and

652
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 2: uranium enrichment as and foreign ministers will meet with them

653
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 2: and they will present to them this quote comprehensive negotiation offer,

654
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 2: which would put an end to the hostilities. Namely, it

655
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 2: would cause a ceasefire as well as lead to zero

656
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 2: enrichment from the Iranians. Again, I don't know if that's

657
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 2: what the Iranians would agree to. But really the real

658
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 2: problem here is that the so called comprehensive offer, even

659
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 2: according to the French and the Europeans, is that it

660
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 2: also has to be acceptable to Israel. I just don't

661
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 2: think that there is any deal at this point which

662
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 2: is acceptable to Israel, which again is one of those

663
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 2: things where it's the United States of America who would

664
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 2: probably take that deal, but the Israelis would be like, oh,

665
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 2: how can we trust it?

666
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 1: Another yeah?

667
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: Right, but even with zero and Richmond, they would say,

668
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 2: how can we trust you that you're not going to

669
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 2: They'd be like, you need to basically let me occupy

670
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 2: your nuclear facility. Right, They're gonna be no, that's not

671
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 2: going to happen. Another really nightmas ut, Yeah right, but

672
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: one like nightmare scenario I see right now is Israelis

673
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 2: are now talking about some sort of grand commando raid

674
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: on the four Todah facility, like occupying the way that

675
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 2: they did in Syria. But I mean, look, the risk

676
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 2: there is just so insanely fraught, and especially if it

677
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 2: were to become a disaster, and then you could easily

678
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 2: see how things snowball from there have failed Israeli commando

679
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 2: slash strike ray that fails to take out power, doesn't

680
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 2: finish the job, and then the Iranians are like, screw it,

681
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 2: let's go sprint to the bomb, right. I mean, there's

682
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 2: so much here which would obviously just almost immediately draw

683
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: America in. So I'm like cautiously, like twenty five percent

684
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 2: optimistic about this, but I just I don't see how

685
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 2: we can surmount, you know, the Israeli I don't see

686
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 2: how we can surmount like all of their clear strategic

687
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 2: objectives at this point, unless a different Donald Trump emerges

688
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: who is like, no, we're done. This is what we're doing.

689
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 2: But I mean, he couldn't even stop Israel from striking Iran,

690
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 2: if that's even to be believed.

691
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 4: You know, they wanted to, he didn't want to. I mean,

692
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 4: let's not be foolish here, right.

693
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 1: And I think Ken Cleppenstein, and now his reporting was

694
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: confirmed by Reuters, I think that, you know, Trump for

695
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: a while, and Biden too, by the way, was like, no,

696
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,239
Speaker 1: you're not doing that, You're not doing that, You're not

697
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 1: doing that. And then Trump was doing the same for

698
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 1: a while and then he stopped saying no. And that

699
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 1: is the equivalent of a green light. Now maybe you

700
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 1: know that way you have plausible deniability that you didn't

701
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: affirmatively say yes, go ahead. But of course the Israelis

702
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: are going to know as soon as you are like, oh, well,

703
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 1: do what you want to do, they know exactly what

704
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 1: that means. And so you know, Trump knew exactly what

705
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 1: was unfolding here. He he green lit this. I mean,

706
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 1: we saw the build up. We all were watching closely

707
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: as to what was ultimately going to unfold.

708
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 4: So he wanted this to happen. He green lit it.

709
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: We shipped hundreds of hellfire missiles to Israel in advance

710
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 1: of these strikes. So you know, it's like, I don't

711
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 1: want to Yes, Nan Yahoo is doing everything he can

712
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 1: to create that outcome. But ultimately it's Donald Trump who decided, yes,

713
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 1: this is this is the direction that we're ultimately going

714
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 1: to go, and we're going to let Israel attack ran

715
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 1: days before we're supposed to have the next round of negotiations.

716
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 1: Even though I mean, from all indications, there was a

717
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 1: plausible chance of actually being able to seal some sort

718
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 1: of a deal and achieve a diplomatic solution, which is

719
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 1: much more unlikely at this point after you know, after

720
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: we blew up our own our own deal making ability.

721
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 5: And we have some relevant comments I can put up

722
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 5: from a senior arining advisor that goes exactly to this point.

723
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:18,360
Speaker 5: Let me put this up where basically he's saying do

724
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 5: and this is a close advisor to the IOTOL saying

725
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 5: that it is it would be a mistake to reach

726
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 5: a ceasefire at this point because Israel is going to

727
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 5: break the ceasefire in two months and they will use

728
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 5: the two months or whatever the period is to restock

729
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:40,879
Speaker 5: their supplies, particularly of interceptor missiles. So any cease fire

730
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 5: that is implemented now will lead to renewed war. We

731
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 5: should not allow the enemy, which is currently in a

732
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 5: weak position, to revive itself with a ceasefire. And he

733
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 5: goes on through, you know, with that analysis. But I

734
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 5: think this is a consequence of you know, the US

735
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 5: and Israel not abiding by any of its agreements, whether

736
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 5: it's the January ceasefire that they reached with Hamas and

737
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 5: then said they were going to break and then broke broke,

738
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 5: whether it was the deal over Eaton Alexander where they said,

739
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 5: if you release eat On Alexander, will let in aid

740
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 5: and we'll push for a ceasefire and they and they

741
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 5: did none of that. Whether it's you know, assassinating Hondya

742
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 5: in Tehran as they're getting very close to a deal,

743
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 5: and on and on. If you believe that a ceasefire

744
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 5: can't be trusted, then then why reach a ceasefire unless

745
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 5: you are fit on the brink of like regiment elimination.

746
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 1: Let me put this up on the screen and get

747
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: your reaction to it. This was the just to put

748
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,359
Speaker 1: it out there. This is the reporting from sihirsh of

749
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,439
Speaker 1: what his sources are telling him it's going to happen. Say,

750
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: mixed bag in terms of his reporting accuracy, but I

751
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 1: think it's good to put it all on the table.

752
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 1: Michael Tracy tweeted these portions. So he, according to is

753
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 1: reporting this report on what was most likely to happen

754
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,320
Speaker 1: in Iran as early as this weekend. According to is

755
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: really and and American officials I've relied upon for decades,

756
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 1: will entail heavy American bombing. I have vetted this report

757
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: with a long time US official, and Washington told me

758
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 1: that it will all be under control if Iran Supreme

759
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 1: leader Ali Commany departs.

760
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 4: Just how that might happen short of his assassinations not known.

761
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,720
Speaker 1: There's been a great deal of talk about American firepower

762
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 1: targets inside Iran, but little practical thinking, as far as

763
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 1: I can tell, about how to remove a revered religious

764
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 1: leader with an enormous following. Next piece, here he says,

765
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 1: I've been told the White House is signed off on

766
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 1: an all out bombing campaign in Iran, But the ultimate targets,

767
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: the centrifuge, is buried at least eighty meters below the

768
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 1: surface at four dough will as of this writing, not

769
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 1: be struck until the weekend. Delay has come at Trump's insistence,

770
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: because now this does kind of ring true. The president

771
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: wants the shock of the bombing to be diminished before

772
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: the opening of Wall Street trading on Monday. Trump took

773
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: issue on social media this morning with the Wall Street

774
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: Journal report that said he had decided on the attack

775
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 1: on Iran riding he had yet to decide on a

776
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 1: path forward.

777
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 4: So what are saying, Chrystal?

778
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 2: Could you Okay? So I was going to say keep

779
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 2: that up? Yeah, there was sorry, I'll reach heare no, no.

780
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 9: Because I just wanted to zoom in on Thean. A

781
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 9: post about the disputed accuracy of sy Hirsch's record, because

782
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,760
Speaker 9: Hanania sort of has this like snarky reply. I remember

783
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 9: Seymour Hirsch reporting that we were sent to bomb Iran

784
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 9: during the Bush administration, and I know what he's saying,

785
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 9: but I actually think that's an interesting point because it

786
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 9: tells you who has been leaking over the course of

787
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 9: decades to try to force a bombing of Iran. And

788
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:31,399
Speaker 9: I think that's like whether or not this report specifically

789
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 9: is an accurate assessment of Trump's thinking. What it is

790
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 9: is Seymour Hirsh having a source who he is describing

791
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 9: accurately as a senior US official.

792
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 4: I'm sure that part is.

793
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:45,919
Speaker 9: True talking to him and saying that this is what's

794
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 9: being discussed in a serious way. So I actually, I mean, yes,

795
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 9: take it with a grain of salt, but I think

796
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 9: it's actually not insane that this is likely a serious,

797
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 9: high level conversation that's happening. I don't know how this

798
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,240
Speaker 9: is going to be affected by Trump's Bannon lunch yesterday

799
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 9: and the two week I don't know what we call it,

800
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 9: like deadline extension, but it did feel like we were

801
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:13,800
Speaker 9: in a forty eight hour window and I don't know

802
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 9: that we actually are out of the forty eight hour

803
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 9: window at all, because it's hard to know when Trump'

804
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 9: has two weeks what he's trying to telegraph to Iran.

805
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 9: It's hard to know what Israel then does. There's no

806
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 9: way that Noahu is happy with Trump's two week announcement yesterday,

807
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 9: and so do they escalate in a way that forces

808
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 9: the hand? I don't know, but that reporting to me

809
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 9: doesn't seem insane.

810
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 1: Sager, what do you make of this tactical nukes talk?

811
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 2: Oh my god, don't even get me started. I'm getting me.

812
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 4: Started, buddy, let me pull it up. I got it here.

813
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and play it.

814
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 7: It's a senior White House correspondent, Jackie heinright the cot.

815
00:39:55,560 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 10: Away from the shots Son headlines this afternoon one from

816
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 10: The Guardian that claimed that US military has doubts about

817
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 10: whether the bunker buster bombs could get the job done

818
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:11,400
Speaker 10: and further claiming that only a tactical nuke may be

819
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 10: finish it. And it further stated that the President is

820
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 10: not considering a tactical nuke, that it was not one

821
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 10: of the options.

822
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 4: That was presented to him.

823
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 10: I was just told by a top officials here that

824
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 10: none of that report is true, that none of the

825
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 10: options are off the table, and the US military is

826
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 10: very confident that bunker busters could get the job done

827
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 10: at Porto.

828
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 4: The President is giving so she says that it's not

829
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 4: the tactical none of it's true. The tactical nukes are

830
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 4: actually not off the table.

831
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 2: Tactical nukes are on the table.

832
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 4: She kind of buries the lead there.

833
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 1: You kind of have to like really listen in in,

834
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: which seems kind of significant.

835
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 2: It's insane preposterous. It also though, I really want people

836
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 2: to see here how the slippery slope happens. First, it's

837
00:40:56,600 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 2: just we just one bomb, that's all it is. Oh,

838
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 2: actually it's a couple of bombs, and that's why you

839
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 2: leak this stuff.

840
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 6: Right.

841
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 2: Maybe the bombs though, can actually do the job. So

842
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 2: then it was only a tactical nuke. Oh so you

843
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: drop a tactical nuke on here. Now we're in a

844
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 2: whole different other world. And you know, this just demonstrates, Look,

845
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 2: these generals, they make all kinds of promises from what

846
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:21,280
Speaker 2: I hear General Gorilla has been, you know, in all

847
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 2: these like meetings with the President being like mister President,

848
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:26,320
Speaker 2: we can do this. He wants to cement his legacy

849
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 2: as the guy who took out the Iranian nuclear program.

850
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 2: His term is up in only two weeks, and he's

851
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 2: given all these pie in this guy bullshit military assessments

852
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump. Of course Donald Trump is loving it, right.

853
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,800
Speaker 2: Gorilla is like jacked. He looks good. He's got a

854
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 2: nice figure on camera, straight out of Central casting, as

855
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 2: Trump would say. So this is the Listen the gorilla,

856
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 2: the gorilla, Gorilla, the gorilla. So like, we can all

857
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:52,239
Speaker 2: see how the wheels are turning. It's obviously it would

858
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:54,399
Speaker 2: be devastating. I think one of the main reasons they're

859
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,760
Speaker 2: keeping it open is just basically to scare the shit

860
00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 2: out of the Iranians. But really what it's about is

861
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 2: they are being so reckless in their rhetoric that they're

862
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 2: actually again just increasing the odds of the Iranians being like,

863
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 2: you people are crazy, we are just going to sprint

864
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 2: to the bomb. And the only reason why this really

865
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 2: is all happening is again because of Israel's actions basically

866
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 2: ratcheting up where the US has to go from the

867
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 2: escalation ladder. Also, can we all keep in mind that

868
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 2: when Russia was even openly talking about a tactical nuclear

869
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 2: weapon in Ukraine. That everyone was like that would be

870
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 2: a red line and that we should basically go to

871
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 2: war with Russia. So should Russia go to war with us?

872
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 2: You know that Rana is technically their client state in

873
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 2: a similar manner. It's maybe not exactly the same, but

874
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 2: everyone just see how crazy this all is. And this

875
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 2: is again you know where I've been going back and

876
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 2: I've been reading even more about all these these military

877
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 2: guys are the kings of over promising and under delivering.

878
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:55,240
Speaker 2: So we can all talk about Libya. We actually delivered

879
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 2: in Libya. We took out their air defense. It was

880
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,280
Speaker 2: just the strategic problem of the fact that the country

881
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:03,320
Speaker 2: collapse into civil war. But what about Serbia? Serbia is

882
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: actually a very apt example. So in nineteen ninety nine,

883
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,360
Speaker 2: NATO and the United States wanted to take out Melosovich

884
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:11,839
Speaker 2: and basically get to stop the civil war and all

885
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 2: of his actions. Right, well, the US military predicted and

886
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 2: NATO said it will just take three days of bombing

887
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 2: to get Melosovich to back down. It took eleven weeks,

888
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 2: and at the end of those eleven weeks, the US

889
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:28,360
Speaker 2: military was presenting options to President Clinton to fully invade

890
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 2: and to take over Serbia because air power could not

891
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 2: get the job done. We have to just keep learning

892
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 2: these lessons over and over and over and over again.

893
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 2: These guys don't actually know what they're talking about. They

894
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 2: said Iraq was going to be a cakewalk. One hundred

895
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 2: and fifty thousand troops, mister President, no question, no problem. Afghanistan,

896
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 2: don't worry about it. We should get a couple of

897
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 2: special forces overthrow the government. We could take out the

898
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:55,240
Speaker 2: Taliban with limited air strikes. It never works. It's always

899
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 2: going to lead to the ground troop and or way

900
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,720
Speaker 2: more than we ever thought from the very beginning.

901
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 6: Go at.

902
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 9: The incredible irony of all of this is that Iran

903
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 9: itself should have been the first lesson of this decade ago.

904
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 9: This is the text book example playing out in front

905
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 9: of us. So it's a tragic irony that, you know, again,

906
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 9: they thought they had that completely under control, no unintended

907
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 9: consequences that happened down the line from meddling, and here

908
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 9: we are in twenty twenty five, still groping to figure

909
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 9: out what happens.

910
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 1: Talking about bringing back the Shaw's son too yet learning

911
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:36,240
Speaker 1: any lessons.

912
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 2: Okay, I talk about that too. Fox News is referring

913
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 2: to this guy as his Royal Highness.

914
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 4: Oh my god, No they aren't.

915
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 2: No, no, they are.

916
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 3: Check it out.

917
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:48,320
Speaker 2: You can tweeted it out. They go his Royal Highness

918
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 2: the show, I go, Where am I on bizarro planet?

919
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 2: What's happening? You know, just being the son of a

920
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 2: deposed king does not make you hrh is a title.

921
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: It has meaning. Okay, I mean, I don't know what

922
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 2: are we doing here, not to be a royal expert

923
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 2: or whatever. But you know it's like if we had

924
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 2: on Edward Habsburg and we're like, his Royal Highness of

925
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 2: lost your hungary, Like what but I think he's like

926
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 2: a banker in Switzerland.

927
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 3: Poem.

928
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 2: He'd be like, I'm Edward, you don't have to call

929
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 2: me that. And he's like the dynasty is gone. You

930
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 2: know when you when you get thrown out, you don't

931
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 2: get the title anymore. I thought we all acknowledge that,

932
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:34,359
Speaker 2: but they're seriously having this guy on and he's like, Oh,

933
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 2: Iranians cry out for monarchy and for its insanity, the sanity.

934
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 1: We I have the media clips on here, the coverage,

935
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 1: the level of undul I don't even know what to say.

936
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 1: I mean, we truly do, like cable news really does

937
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 1: never learn anything. Ever, it's so wild to see the

938
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 1: propaganda march and it matters. I mean, we were covering

939
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 1: that polling where it really depends people feel about this

940
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 1: all kinds of ways, depending on how it's framed. So

941
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 1: I guarantee if you ask people do you want to

942
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:12,879
Speaker 1: get America entrenched in some like potentially catastrophic regime change

943
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 1: or regime collapse war, they could be like are you hot?

944
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 4: Like what, why would we do that?

945
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 6: Why?

946
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 4: I think it would be ninety ten. But if you ask,

947
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 4: you know, oh.

948
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 1: Well, should Orn have a nuke? Well? Should we let

949
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:26,839
Speaker 1: Israel strike Roan to get rid of their nuclear proga?

950
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 4: Who could object to that?

951
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 1: Well? Should we supply the weapons that Israel useless? Well,

952
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 1: you know, should we maybe be the ones just to

953
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 1: go ahead and take out these nuclear weapons? Because you've

954
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:38,760
Speaker 1: already said Oran can't have a nuke. When it's framed

955
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 1: in that way, suddenly you get a disturbing amount of

956
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 1: public consensus. And we also have to be real about

957
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:47,399
Speaker 1: the quote unquote anti war mega base. The Republican base

958
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 1: is vastly more pro war than the Democratic base. They

959
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 1: will go and support whatever Donald Trump wants to do,

960
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 1: including Steve Bannon, who already has told the Financial Times

961
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, Me Tucker, Marjorie Taylor Green,

962
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 1: all these people will support the president's decision and just

963
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: assume he has more intelligence and more wisdom and more

964
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 1: understanding that we do.

965
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:07,279
Speaker 4: At the end of the day, they will all bend

966
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,280
Speaker 4: the ney to whatever it is that Trump decides.

967
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,399
Speaker 2: Most of them will, and most of the base will.

968
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 2: But you know, you made an important point yesterday, Chrystal

969
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:15,239
Speaker 2: on our show. Independence won't And.

970
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 4: That's yeah, that difficult, absolutely, and that's why.

971
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,840
Speaker 2: That show does matter. And you know, I want to

972
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:22,879
Speaker 2: get this guy on the show, this guy Rich Barris.

973
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 2: He's like a maga like aligned Ulster, and he's been

974
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 2: making some great points where he's like, hey, guys, Trump's

975
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:33,439
Speaker 2: entire margin of victory in Michigan is the anti war

976
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 2: independent base. He's like the dearborn people who voted for

977
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 2: Trump and or people who were union and anti Iraq war.

978
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 2: That is the margin of victory. So Donald Trump, it's

979
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 2: striking the parallels with George W. Bush, Like if you

980
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:51,319
Speaker 2: look at the ninety six electoral map and the two

981
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 2: thousand electoral map. It's actually insane how much things can

982
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:57,279
Speaker 2: change in just four years. George W. Bush, everybody forgets this.

983
00:47:57,520 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 2: He ran as a restraintist. He thought that the US

984
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 2: can pain in Serbia was a disaster. He was like,

985
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 2: that's not something that I'm interested in doing. He ran

986
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,840
Speaker 2: on reducing America's footprint abroad. And then of course we

987
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 2: got you know, mister Neocon himself. Things changed a lot

988
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 2: after nine to eleven because he literally had a messianic

989
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 2: complex where he believed he was put on earth by

990
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:19,800
Speaker 2: God to be there at nine to eleven and to

991
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 2: destroy the access of evil, which is telling Trump right now,

992
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 2: this is look, I'm trying to drop parallels here.

993
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, he believes it.

994
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:30,839
Speaker 1: I mean, it's raw by Huckabye. There's a reason why

995
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 1: he shared that text. And he talked about himself this way.

996
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 1: I mean his inaugural speech, he talked about how you know,

997
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:39,720
Speaker 1: he's basically put there by God for this great moment.

998
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 1: And so when I mean, Emily, you're gonna have to

999
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to be my deacoder in some of

1000
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 1: this stuff. But the religious fervor of you know, the

1001
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 1: Israeli fanatics, and then you've got the Huckabee End Times

1002
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: people and Ted Cruz, and then you've got you know,

1003
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: Trump believing he's, you know, the second coming of Jesus Christ.

1004
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 1: To me, this is a terrifying mix, a totally terrifying mix,

1005
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,760
Speaker 1: because then you're like, you can't presume anyone's even acting

1006
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: rationally when you have this divine justification behind you, when

1007
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:19,239
Speaker 1: you believe that it's your mission from God, as Ted

1008
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 1: Cruz explained, to always serve the government of met Yahoo.

1009
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 9: Yeah, the so I do have good news on that front,

1010
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:29,440
Speaker 9: which is that's so boomer brain. Even in evangelical circles,

1011
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 9: it's people like there was this time before Y two

1012
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:39,399
Speaker 9: K where the Left Behind series and this millenarian Christianity

1013
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:43,800
Speaker 9: pointed straight towards Israel and created this real, very like,

1014
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 9: very very serious political support for Israel that we all

1015
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 9: kind of think of when we think of American evangelicals.

1016
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 2: That has not really trickled down.

1017
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:55,719
Speaker 9: And in fact, what I saw of the last like

1018
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 9: forty eight hours after the Huckaby thing and after the

1019
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,720
Speaker 9: cruising in particular, was a ton of pushback. For example,

1020
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 9: the Federalists published a long pushback to what Ted Cruz

1021
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 9: was saying, and I don't think that would have happened

1022
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 9: fifteen years ago. It doesn't make it any less frightening

1023
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 9: that Mike Kakabee, who has played very fast in loose

1024
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 9: with whether he's a dispensationalist or not, is there. I mean,

1025
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:17,279
Speaker 9: I think in all likelihood, yes, Mike Kaukabee believes that

1026
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 9: political Israel is. You can sort of swap that in

1027
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 9: and out with when the Bible refers to the nation

1028
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 9: of Israel that today twenty twenty five political nation state

1029
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 9: Israel is. You can read that into scripture.

1030
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 2: You could read that it's a revelation.

1031
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 9: It's completely ridiculous, but it's it is popular where with

1032
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 9: evangelical boomers like Mike Huckabee, so to the extent that

1033
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 9: Huckabee is the ambassador to Israel, that matters. But I

1034
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 9: don't think that's it's certainly now not how like a

1035
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:49,320
Speaker 9: Catholic like Jdevance or Mark or Rubio is seeing this.

1036
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 2: I know that's cold comfort to everyone.

1037
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 9: But the good news is the boom and brain dispensationalism

1038
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 9: hasn't trickled down to millennials, right now.

1039
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:03,560
Speaker 4: I guess I wanted to get your Okay, good to know.

1040
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:06,919
Speaker 1: Hopefully we all survive until those millennials have a little

1041
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 1: more power.

1042
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 4: Right, you'll know when we're not raptured. Okay, all right,

1043
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 4: good to know.

1044
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 1: I wanted to get you to explain Ryan this report

1045
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 1: from drop site about how the Israelis are reposting some

1046
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:22,840
Speaker 1: of the same strike footage from Moz obviously, you know,

1047
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,520
Speaker 1: has been tracking this and broke down this reporting. So

1048
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,799
Speaker 1: what should people like, what's the significance here?

1049
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 4: What is he finding?

1050
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:35,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, so this is allegedly two different strikes

1051
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 5: on two different days posted by the Israeli military, and

1052
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 5: as as Moz points out, like if you look closely,

1053
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 5: there's just a little bit of tweaking done to the

1054
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 5: color and to the angle.

1055
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's blurred a little bit.

1056
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:53,839
Speaker 5: Yeah, but if you look at it, if you look

1057
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 5: at that kind of the markings around the rest of

1058
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:58,799
Speaker 5: the image, you're like, oh, you know, it doesn't take

1059
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 5: you know, pH D and osent to be like this

1060
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 5: is actually the same picture.

1061
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 1: And so.

1062
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:11,000
Speaker 5: It raises the question of, you know, have they exhausted

1063
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:12,879
Speaker 5: kind of a target bank in the sense that they're

1064
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 5: not you know, they're not able to produce new pictures,

1065
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 5: which is strange because they have you know, free reign

1066
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:22,880
Speaker 5: over the Iranian sky and.

1067
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 3: All.

1068
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 2: This is not exclusive to Israel.

1069
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:31,919
Speaker 5: All of these belligerent powers are capable of bombing even

1070
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:36,320
Speaker 5: something that has nothing, no military value whatsoever and putting

1071
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 5: a clip out and saying that it's a command and

1072
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,840
Speaker 5: control center. So it's not like they have a shortage

1073
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 5: of videos. It's just it shows I think it shows

1074
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 5: a sloppiness and potentially shows you know that they're that

1075
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:51,919
Speaker 5: they're really scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point.

1076
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:54,759
Speaker 1: Well, and this was also a significant in that vein

1077
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,839
Speaker 1: NBC News is reporting that according to the seniors really

1078
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:01,799
Speaker 1: intelligence official, only sixty five percent of Iranian missiles were

1079
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 1: intercepted in the past twenty four hours. That's down from

1080
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:06,359
Speaker 1: nearly ninety percent the day before. And we have other

1081
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 1: reports as well that they're having to ration interceptors. I mean,

1082
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 1: this is something something that Soccer was talking about before.

1083
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 1: It's just part of why you know, they're obviously we

1084
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 1: have to be involved. We've been and not have to be,

1085
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:21,239
Speaker 1: but we choose to be involved and have been from

1086
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:24,360
Speaker 1: the beginning and I think this is one of the

1087
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 1: hopes of the Iranians probably is that they can learn

1088
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 1: more about the missile defense systems and that as time

1089
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 1: goes on, they will you know, have to further ration interceptors,

1090
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,880
Speaker 1: and also that they will have more understanding of how

1091
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 1: to evade those interceptors and those missile defense systems.

1092
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 5: And on top of that they use their older and

1093
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 5: crappier missiles as as you would expect logically, the first

1094
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:52,359
Speaker 5: ones out of the gate were the cheap, cheap, old

1095
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:54,319
Speaker 5: guys that aren't as good because so do.

1096
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:55,920
Speaker 1: We know, we know that for a fact, because I

1097
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:57,360
Speaker 1: saw that speculation.

1098
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 2: Too, Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1099
00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:01,319
Speaker 5: And so because you know that when when your first

1100
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:03,839
Speaker 5: volley comes in, they're gonna they have their entire bank

1101
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:06,600
Speaker 5: of interceptors ready to go. So you throw the cheapest

1102
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:10,560
Speaker 5: stuff that's the worst, and so the interceptors then take

1103
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 5: all of that out and then gradually you start you know,

1104
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:17,320
Speaker 5: using their that and you know, hypersonic missiles and you know,

1105
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:22,320
Speaker 5: yesterday they fired fired one. It sounds like one missile

1106
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 5: at Bearsheva and it got through, but it seems to

1107
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:27,680
Speaker 5: maybe have missed his target. It landed right near the

1108
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 5: Microsoft building there, and then the IRGC said they were

1109
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 5: actually aiming for the Microsoft building, which may have been

1110
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 5: because you know, citing Microsoft's role and in Israeli industrial complex,

1111
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:44,960
Speaker 5: which may have been kind of reverse engineered. Cope like that,

1112
00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:49,319
Speaker 5: they're probably aiming for Elbot Systems, which is nearby there,

1113
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 5: but hit closer to Microsoft, so that they're like, you know,

1114
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 5: there's a lot of reverse engineering. We're like, oh, yeah,

1115
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 5: that's definitely what we were aiming for. After you try

1116
00:54:57,000 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 5: to figure out where it landed. And then we're getting

1117
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:03,400
Speaker 5: reports right now that there was another missile landed right

1118
00:55:03,440 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 5: around Bearsheva. So you know, if they're two for two

1119
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:10,320
Speaker 5: in Beersheva getting through you know, missile defenses, that allows

1120
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 5: them to shoot many fewer missiles and still have the

1121
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 5: same amount of impact. You know, if they were firing

1122
00:55:15,560 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 5: off you know, three hundred in the beginning just to

1123
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:21,759
Speaker 5: land ten or twenty, that's not a sustainable pace if

1124
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 5: you have, you know, a missiles missile stockpile in the

1125
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:28,320
Speaker 5: low thousands. But if you're hitting at a fifty to

1126
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:33,840
Speaker 5: one hundred percent clip, that causes a lot more damage

1127
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 5: and helps you win in a war of attrition.

1128
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:37,280
Speaker 4: I think sager.

1129
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 1: Do you have to jump?

1130
00:55:38,239 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do, unfortunately, but yeah, just last thoughts is

1131
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 2: I think we have a twenty five percent chance of

1132
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:49,439
Speaker 2: avoiding miss probably seventy five percent chance. By the way,

1133
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:53,840
Speaker 2: literally as we're talking, Israel's getting rocked by ballistic missiles.

1134
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 2: In terms of at least some of the images that

1135
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:58,879
Speaker 2: have made it out. They are going to come under

1136
00:55:58,920 --> 00:56:02,439
Speaker 2: intense pressure in the government. They are going to ramp

1137
00:56:02,560 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 2: up regime change and destabilization efforts to the best of

1138
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 2: their possible ability. And yeah, I think it's going to

1139
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:12,719
Speaker 2: be a very, very dangerous two weeks. But you know,

1140
00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 2: I'm hoping for some success coming out of Europe and

1141
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 2: at least see what they're able to get out of

1142
00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:22,279
Speaker 2: the Uranians and publicly as well, you know, some of

1143
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 2: the statements to get them on the record, and presumably

1144
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:27,359
Speaker 2: a press conference with some statements from the Iranian foreign minister,

1145
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:29,280
Speaker 2: they could at least keep us out of the woods.

1146
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 2: But I also want to echo Emily's warning, we could

1147
00:56:31,520 --> 00:56:33,600
Speaker 2: be in a forty eight hour time window. This could

1148
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,319
Speaker 2: all be fake, and this could buy Monday on our show,

1149
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 2: we can be covering a four dough strike.

1150
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Well, as we let Sager go. I

1151
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:44,839
Speaker 1: think we're also going to conclude the free portion. Premiums,

1152
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,160
Speaker 1: We're going to cover a bunch of more stuff. I've

1153
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 1: got a bunch of clips I got Dave Smith on

1154
00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 1: Piers Morgan. You guys, now you don't want to miss

1155
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:53,880
Speaker 1: on on that. I've had it lady. Even Emily has

1156
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,359
Speaker 1: to admit she was kind of cooking on CNN. She's

1157
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 1: like more based than we expected her to be, so

1158
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 1: that's kind of cool. We've got more coming out of Israel,

1159
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:05,280
Speaker 1: in particular BBNAT and Yahoo is paying a personal price, guys,

1160
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 1: and I want to share with you what that personal

1161
00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:10,719
Speaker 1: price is. And we all should thoughts in prayers with

1162
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:13,880
Speaker 1: Bib and his family during this very difficult time. And

1163
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:15,920
Speaker 1: so in any case, a bunch of stuff to get to.

1164
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 1: We'll try to get to zor On maybe talk about Obama.

1165
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:19,800
Speaker 1: See how much we get to. But for those of

1166
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 1: you who want to join us for the full show

1167
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot Com, that monthly subscription is back.

1168
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 4: So you know, partake in that to your full delight,

1169
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 4: see how you like it.

1170
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 1: And for premiums, we'll see in just about all right, guys,

1171
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 1: thank you so much for watching the free portion of

1172
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:38,880
Speaker 1: the Friday Show, we're going to move into some premium

1173
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 1: bonus content, so if you want to watch that as well,

1174
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 1: make sure to go and subscribe at breakingpoints dot com.

1175
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:47,360
Speaker 1: And for all of you guys who are already premium subscribers,

1176
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 1: that portion is going to start right now,