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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by the FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host today, Brendan Glasheen, joined by Sean Zarillo

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Speaker 1: and Billy Ward. We have a UFC betting preview. We

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Speaker 1: we we make ourselves. We head to Paris for this

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Speaker 1: week's UFC Action Paris, France for eleven fights, six on

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Speaker 1: the main card, five prelims. Breaking all things down, we

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Speaker 1: will dive into underdogs, props, and then we'll finish up

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Speaker 1: with our best bets, possibly just a final bet. We'll

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Speaker 1: find out Zilla will go to you first, as we

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Speaker 1: normally do. I know you guys carried the load last week,

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Speaker 1: appreciate that I was off. This week, We've got Cyril

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Speaker 1: Gone taking on Serge Spivik, and that is a line

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Speaker 1: right now looking at FanDuel. Based on the latest movement

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Speaker 1: Gone it continues to rise as far as being a

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Speaker 1: favorite at minus one seventy eight Spivoc at plus one

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Speaker 1: forty four. How do you analyze that line movement throughout

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Speaker 1: the course of the week and how you'd like to

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Speaker 1: bet it?

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Speaker 3: I agree with the line movements.

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Speaker 4: Bet gone at minus one seventy last night would still

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Speaker 4: bat them up to about minus one ninety. Minus one

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Speaker 4: ninety five today certainly projected him as a bigger favorite,

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Speaker 4: closer to minus two fifteen than the market indicates. And

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Speaker 4: I think this is a very binary fight, and I

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Speaker 4: would also lean to the unders in this matchup, the

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Speaker 4: under two and a half, probably the under three and

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Speaker 4: a half as a parlay piece, but I do think

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Speaker 4: this one probably ends in the first seven and a

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Speaker 4: half to twelve and a half minutes, So the under

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Speaker 4: one and a half under two and a half interests

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Speaker 4: me as well in any sort of binary Gon clearly

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Speaker 4: the better striker Spivak the better grappler, But I do

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Speaker 4: think he's going to struggle to get takedowns here just

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Speaker 4: because of the way he goes about them. One, he

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Speaker 4: is a three inch reach advantage to close and given

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Speaker 4: the fact that there's a huge striking discrepancy, I don't

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Speaker 4: think Gon is going to let him inside very easily.

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Speaker 4: He's great with his range weapons, his jab, his keep kicks,

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Speaker 4: He's great at keeping opponents off of him, and Spivac

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Speaker 4: has also fought a lot of his recent fights in

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Speaker 4: that Ufcapex cage. He's going to a bigger cage now

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Speaker 4: where he's going to struggle even more to close that distance.

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Speaker 4: And he also doesn't have the type of wrestling style

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Speaker 4: that we see have success against Gon. He doesn't have

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Speaker 4: that American single leg double leg Chaine wrestling type of style.

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Speaker 4: He looks for risk control, he looks to get into

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Speaker 4: the clinch, and he looks to trip guys or go

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Speaker 4: for upper body takedowns, which I think Gon is going

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Speaker 4: to be much better at defending with his Mui tai abilities,

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Speaker 4: with his clinch fighting than he would if he was

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Speaker 4: going against more of an American style freestyle wrestler. So

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Speaker 4: I think Gon has a good chance here to win

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Speaker 4: those clinch positions, to keep this fight standing and to

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Speaker 4: eventually put Spivac away. Compared to other heavyweights, I don't

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Speaker 4: think Spevak is particularly durable either. He sort of gets

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Speaker 4: clipped and folds the moment he faces any sort of adversity.

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Speaker 4: When he's fight against Tom Asmall basically got to a

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Speaker 4: clinch position, couldn't get the fight to the ground, ate

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Speaker 4: one big puncher elbow and that was the end of

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Speaker 4: the fight. So I don't think Spivak is particularly durable.

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Speaker 4: I think Gon's submission defense, the fact that you know

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Speaker 4: he was submitted so quickly by John Jones, I think

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Speaker 4: people were sort of baking that too much into the line.

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Speaker 4: I don't think Spievok is nearly the type of offensive

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Speaker 4: wrestling game that John Jones has, not even a similar style,

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Speaker 4: but you know, just the type of style. I don't

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Speaker 4: think he's going to have a ton of success grappling

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Speaker 4: surol Ghan and one other.

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Speaker 3: Thing I want to mention too.

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Speaker 4: Even when Spibak has been able to get guys down

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Speaker 4: to the mat immediately, Derek Lewis they were able to

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Speaker 4: pop back up, he sort of matt returned them, you know,

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Speaker 4: wore them down with multiple takedown attempts. But it wasn't

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Speaker 4: Shane wrestling. Guys were able to pop right back up

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Speaker 4: to their feet, and then he just sort of had

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Speaker 4: to repeat the same technique. So I do think maybe

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Speaker 4: he gets gone to the ground, but I expect Gone

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Speaker 4: to pop right back up to his feet, and the

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Speaker 4: moment he gets at clear striking range and land some

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Speaker 4: clean shots on speedback, I think that'll be the end

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Speaker 4: of the fight. So gone on the money line Gone

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Speaker 4: by knockout, I think are my favorite ways to play

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Speaker 4: this fight. But as I mentioned, the under one and

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Speaker 4: a half under two and a half caught my eye

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Speaker 4: as well. And fight to end inside the distance seems

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Speaker 4: like an absolute locker.

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Speaker 1: So it implied probability for Gone hovering close to sixty

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Speaker 1: five percent. Billy, are you in the same boat as Zerillo?

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Speaker 1: Does the line movement make sense? How would you like

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Speaker 1: to bet the main event?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, one hundred percent. And the lines kind of moved

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Speaker 5: both ways a little bit. I think when lines were

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Speaker 5: first posted, Gone was a little bit on the other

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Speaker 5: side of minus two hundred kind of came back down

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Speaker 5: for a little bit, and now the sharper money is

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Speaker 5: pushing it back closer to where it should be. But

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Speaker 5: I'm pretty much with everything Sean said. You know, people

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Speaker 5: are overreacting to Gone looking bad and grappling in his

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Speaker 5: last couple of fights, one of those was against John Jones.

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Speaker 5: Almost every human being on the planet is going to

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Speaker 5: look bad grappling against John Jones, Like, we can't.

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Speaker 6: Weigh that too heavily.

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Speaker 5: And before that, yes, Francis Nagan who took him down,

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Speaker 5: but Gon was not expecting that to be grappling at all,

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Speaker 5: Like he was not preparing takedown defense. He wasn't preparing

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Speaker 5: get ups. He had no clue that that's what was coming.

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Speaker 5: You could even argue in the John Jones fight, he

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Speaker 5: might not have been prepared for that immediate wrestling attack,

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Speaker 5: like we talked about it beforehand. You know, does Jones

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Speaker 5: try to strike with him? Does he try to grapple?

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Speaker 5: This is very clear that his opponent is going to

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Speaker 5: try to grapple with him, which.

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Speaker 6: Makes it a lot easier to defend. He knows what

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Speaker 6: the mission is.

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Speaker 5: And Gon is not a bad grappler, you know, like

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Speaker 5: he's had his moments against tough guys, but we all

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Speaker 5: forget he won his first two UFC fights by submission.

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Speaker 5: He has a arm triangle and a heel hook in

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Speaker 5: the UFC. If you wanted something real, juicy, kind off

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Speaker 5: the wall here, I think gon submission lines could be

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Speaker 5: a little bit fun. Just he gets taken down, but

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Speaker 5: he scrambles out or locks up a leg submission, something

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Speaker 5: crazy because Tibek's getting desperate on the takedowns. That wouldn't

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Speaker 5: totally shock me. But my favorite bet here is just

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Speaker 5: the gun money line. You know, I could see him

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Speaker 5: finishing it early knockouts submission wouldn't shock me, or just

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Speaker 5: outpointing him for twenty five minutes against a guy growing

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Speaker 5: increasingly desperate to get takedowns but not finding him. So

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Speaker 5: minus one seventy eight is fine with Sean. Probably about

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Speaker 5: minus one ninety or so is where I'd start to

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Speaker 5: rethink it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and if this goes twenty five minutes, I feel

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Speaker 4: like Gone has to be a minus one thousand on

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Speaker 4: the minute winning right, Billy, Like, if this is if

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Speaker 4: you're playing a decision only here, how does Spivac win

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Speaker 4: a decision? You know, with twenty five minutes of control,

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Speaker 4: everybody gets up against them, So I don't really see

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Speaker 4: how is Spivak's control or lack of control, I should

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Speaker 4: say on the mat how he wins enough minutes over

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Speaker 4: twenty five decisions.

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Speaker 5: So I've got it with other fights a couple of

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Speaker 5: times where like, it's just really hard to keep wrestling

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Speaker 5: a guy for that long, especially these big guys. The

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Speaker 5: cardio demands on them as much harder. I don't think

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Speaker 5: Spib's an especially big heavyweight. That won't help him hold

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Speaker 5: Gone down either. Gon should be a little bit bigger

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Speaker 5: and stronger. I think Gone actually waited in a little

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Speaker 5: bit lighter but definitely in better shade, definitely more muscular,

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Speaker 5: So that'll make it hard to keep him down and

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Speaker 5: win minutes for a long time.

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Speaker 1: To your point, so I'm sensing from both of you

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Speaker 1: that there really won't be a live possibility on this

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Speaker 1: considering how you feel about the favorite.

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Speaker 3: You know, that's a really good point, Brandon.

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Speaker 4: If Gon does get taken down in the first round,

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Speaker 4: or you know, loses the first round, that the line

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Speaker 4: moves closer to a pick him after the first round,

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Speaker 4: because Spivak lands a few takedowns, you know, he's holding

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Speaker 4: on to him, hanging on to him, takes him down,

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Speaker 4: Gone Back gets back up, takes him down again right

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Speaker 4: Speedback gets enough.

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Speaker 3: Top control to win the round.

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Speaker 4: But it looks like he's getting a little tired, or

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Speaker 4: you know, he's probably gonna get a little tired after

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Speaker 4: that first round. Yeah, I think if Gon loses that

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Speaker 4: first round, I'm gonna look to bet him live after

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Speaker 4: round one. I believe Spivak has been scheduled for multiple

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Speaker 4: five round fights, but has not gone to the championship

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Speaker 4: rounds yet. In the UFC so don't really know what

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Speaker 4: his cardio is going to look like down the stretch.

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Speaker 4: Gon's cardio didn't look amazing though against Francis and Ghano either,

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Speaker 4: so this would get really sloppy if it ends up

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Speaker 4: getting to the fourth round. But based on the way

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Speaker 4: the styles should play out, in the way Spivac needs

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Speaker 4: to win, I would expect him to wrestle and if

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Speaker 4: he has success, yeah, would jump it on gone live.

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Speaker 1: Any thoughts on that, Billy a live angle possibly? Do

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Speaker 1: you think it even happens.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's the bigger doubt with it.

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Speaker 5: If that does happen the way Drella pointed out, absolutely,

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Speaker 5: one hundred percent take that even if he doesn't look tired.

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Speaker 5: Just knowing how much more energy it takes to wrestle

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Speaker 5: than it does to stay on the outside and throw

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Speaker 5: one twos, it's a pretty clear point. Not so sure

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Speaker 5: that we get that opportunity though, but yeah, if it's

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Speaker 5: there by all means, I'll be jumping on it as well.

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Speaker 5: I'm glad you asked the question because I probably would

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Speaker 5: have missed it tomorrow and would be kicking myself if

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Speaker 5: we didn't.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm getting the hang of the same.

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Speaker 4: Thing back gone in round one, which was like plus

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Speaker 4: three fifty caught my eye, So I think this could

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Speaker 4: end quick. But yeah, if it extends, you know, past

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Speaker 4: five minutes, I think gone Is might be a good

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Speaker 4: live entury.

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Speaker 1: I just feel like we constantly, especially with these main events,

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Speaker 1: we hit on the live angles and Billy you normally

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Speaker 1: you go there first before I even ask. Just feels

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Speaker 1: like that's been a theme. We bring that up from

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Speaker 1: time to time. Really a lot of the time.

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Speaker 5: It's tougher with heavyweights, just because the finish ray so

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Speaker 5: much higher. So my brain is not really thinking about

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Speaker 5: what happens after the first round or two. I'm more like, no,

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Speaker 5: there won't be a third round. How can we bet

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Speaker 5: this live? If it ends three minutes in.

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Speaker 1: It's okay. So we work together, the brains mold together.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to the fight of the nights, We've got

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Speaker 1: myn own Fioro at minus one eighty eight at Fandel

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Speaker 1: and then Rose nama Unis at plus one point fifty

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Speaker 1: two over at Fandel, using their odds, of course, to

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Speaker 1: break this one down. Zillo, same question, how do you

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Speaker 1: look at the lines here and assess the fight? How

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Speaker 1: do you want to Benet.

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Speaker 4: And same answer backing the French fighter at about minus

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Speaker 4: one ninety. I bet Fiorro last night closer to minus

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Speaker 4: one seventy five. That was an outlier number compared to

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Speaker 4: the rest of the market. Again, a lineup projected closer

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Speaker 4: to about minus two fifteen minus two twenty thug Rose

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Speaker 4: moving up and weight here. And normally when a fighter

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Speaker 4: moves up in wait, they tend to have the speed

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Speaker 4: advantage over their opponents while there be at a power discrepancy.

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Speaker 3: Strength this rerepency, and I.

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Speaker 4: Think Friorro is certainly going to be the more powerful hitter,

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Speaker 4: the stronger fighter. I don't think Rose is gonna have

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Speaker 4: a speed advantager, and that is a big problem for her.

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Speaker 4: If she doesn't have a speed advantage, she's going to

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Speaker 4: need takedowns to win this fight. And I think Fiora

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Speaker 4: is going to be too strong for her. So the

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Speaker 4: cardio to me relatively even on either side. You know,

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Speaker 4: Manona Feruro, a fighter I bet against in the past

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Speaker 4: because I don't think she has the best cardio and

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Speaker 4: if she isn't able to get her opponents out of

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Speaker 4: there in the first seven to ten minutes, I think

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Speaker 4: she's capable of losing third rounds at a relatively decent clip,

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Speaker 4: But Thug Rose in the same respective has lost third

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Speaker 4: rounds throughout her UFC career fairly consistently. I think her

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Speaker 4: title fight went over Wang jele At. I believe it

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Speaker 4: was the UFC two eighty one or two hity two

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Speaker 4: where she won the fourth and fifth round by landing

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Speaker 4: takedowns against toy Lee. I think that kind of masked

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Speaker 4: the fact that Rose has struggled with cardio throughout her career,

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Speaker 4: so she's at a she's the better technical striker in

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Speaker 4: this matchup, but we'll give her that. I think she's

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Speaker 4: the more technical fighter, better technique, but output, power aggression are.

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Speaker 3: All going to favor Fioro.

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Speaker 4: And as I said, if Rose doesn't land takedowns here

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Speaker 4: and get top time, I struggle to see her winning

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Speaker 4: minutes or winning decision. And on top of that, I

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Speaker 4: think Fiora much more capable of finishing this fight too. Again,

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Speaker 4: you know, Rose's head kick knockout over Wayleyjeng kind of

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Speaker 4: sticks in people's minds. Doesn't necessarily have major one hit

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Speaker 4: or quitter power in those hands. And again, moving up

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Speaker 4: a division, I think it's just going to lessen the

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Speaker 4: impact of those punches.

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Speaker 3: So Fioro, she.

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Speaker 4: Was about minus four hundred against Jennifer Maya. She's minus

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Speaker 4: one ninety minus one eighty here against Thug Rose. I

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Speaker 4: don't think Rose is a tougher fight in the Maya

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Speaker 4: fight was. I think Maya, you know, former title challenger

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Speaker 4: in this division, very capable skill set and very well rounded,

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Speaker 4: and Fioro kind of you know, pushed her aside with relatives.

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Speaker 4: So I think this is actually potentially an easier fight

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Speaker 4: than what Fioro has seen in a recent s matchup

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Speaker 4: with Caitlyn Chickegi and who I love. I mean she

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Speaker 4: beat my ro Buena Silva as well, who's probably about

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Speaker 4: the challenge for a title. So yeah, minown Fiuro in

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Speaker 4: my eyes, may be but a little bit underrated. And

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Speaker 4: Rose and Amahun is typically one of the most popular

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Speaker 4: fighters on the roster and especially particularly popular betting pick

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Speaker 4: whenever she's fighting, like Sean O'Malley is, So I would

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Speaker 4: expect a lot of public action on Thugg Rose as

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Speaker 4: an underdog this week, like you got with O'Malley a

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Speaker 4: couple of weeks ago. But do you think the favorite

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Speaker 4: is the right side.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Billy for this women's flyweight and Zilla broke this down.

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Speaker 1: We've got fighters going in different directions. Fioro's I've got

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Speaker 1: a five fight win streak, and then Rose and Zerilo.

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Speaker 1: I apologize if you mentioned this, I didn't catch it.

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Speaker 1: But the moving of weight class too for Rose heading

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Speaker 1: into this one too.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Sean touched on that a little bit. It's tough,

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Speaker 5: you know. We as a podcast, broadly, I think are

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Speaker 5: more in favor of fighters in their thirties going up

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Speaker 5: a weight class than going down a weight class.

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Speaker 6: Rod Strokes don't love it here.

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Speaker 5: That ten pound jump from one to fifteen to one

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Speaker 5: twenty five is proportionately so much more than going from

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Speaker 5: forty five to fifty five or some of those other gaps.

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Speaker 5: And especially for a fighter who I never thought was

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Speaker 5: especially big at one fifteen, like she was the weaker

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Speaker 5: fighter against Wang Jai Lee. She's not one that you thought, oh,

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Speaker 5: that makes a ton of sense. To go up your

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Speaker 5: weight cut had to have been hard. I don't really

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Speaker 5: see that here. Yeah, I mean, Sean nailed most of

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Speaker 5: what I wanted to get to. It's very similar to

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Speaker 5: the heavyweight fight with the French fighter with the better

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Speaker 5: striking and probably the athletic ability against a fighter who

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Speaker 5: needs to take them down in a big cage with

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Speaker 5: a physical disadvantage that makes that hard. Only other thing

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Speaker 5: I wanted to add is we were talking about Manom

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Speaker 5: Fiorro as like future champion, next in line for the title,

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Speaker 5: and then she's been off close to a year, and

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Speaker 5: in that time, Aaron Blanchfield has taken the world by storm,

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Speaker 5: Valentina Chevchenko got dethroned, forcing and rematched, and all of

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Speaker 5: a sudden, this feels like a little bit of a

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Speaker 5: step back for Fioro because if you would have asked

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Speaker 5: me this time seven or eight months ago, I would

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Speaker 5: have thought she'd be fighting for a title at this card,

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Speaker 5: not fighting a newcomer to the division coming off a

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Speaker 5: stinker of a fight.

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Speaker 6: This feels like a little bit of a step down.

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Speaker 5: And it also feels like the UFC trying to showcase

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Speaker 5: the French fighters for.

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Speaker 6: A possible title fight in the very near future.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's uh anything it adds Arolo, think you

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Speaker 1: might have.

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Speaker 3: Had something else there now.

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Speaker 4: French fighters are the clear A sides in this matchup.

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Speaker 4: I think the UFC gave them as Billy put it

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Speaker 4: matchups that set them up for title shots, and I

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Speaker 4: think at minus one seventy to minus one ninety on

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Speaker 4: both fighters, you're getting fair price and I bet the

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Speaker 4: bull straight. But if you want to parlay them together

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Speaker 4: reduce your risk, I think that's perfectly fine as well.

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Speaker 1: Okay, fair prices are available to at Ticketmaster, gentlemen. More

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Speaker 1: memories are made when you're there for live NFL action, Billy,

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Speaker 1: stop laughing. I'm in the middle of something here. And

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Speaker 1: when you need tickets, Billy, our friends at Ticketmaster have

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00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,760
Speaker 1: got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL.

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Speaker 1: No NFL games in Paris. That would be a treat

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Speaker 1: I would enjoy that. Ticket Master gives you more ways

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Speaker 1: to find your perfect seat their interactive seat map, Billy.

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Speaker 3: It gives you three hundred and.

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00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 1: Sixty degree previews of your section to make sure you

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Speaker 1: have the best view of those pivotal plays and if

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00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:01,880
Speaker 1: your plans change. Master gives you more flexibility to sell

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00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,240
Speaker 1: or transfer your tickets. Plus mobile tickets make getting in

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00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,680
Speaker 1: on game day a breeze, and you can even customize

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00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:10,720
Speaker 1: your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets

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Speaker 1: today at Ticketmaster Dot com Slash NFL. Great to have

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Speaker 1: ticket Master with us. On the Action Network podcast Zarrillo,

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Speaker 1: we transition again. We're breaking down the things UFC. For

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Speaker 1: UFC Paris, an underdog that emerges, so we're talking. We

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Speaker 1: talked a lot of favorites here with the main event

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Speaker 1: and then the fight of the night. You guys wanted

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Speaker 1: to highlight for the women's flyweight.

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Speaker 3: What about a dog?

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Speaker 4: A couple of dogs for me on this car, A

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Speaker 4: couple of money line underdogs. The first, the only all

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Speaker 4: French fight on this UFC Paris card, Giannis Gomory against

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Speaker 4: William Gomes. Gomi is very fortunate to get the split

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Speaker 4: decision win in his last fight. I believe he also

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Speaker 4: has a majority decision win in the UFC. He's a

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Speaker 4: bit of a blanket. I think Gomory just is going

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Speaker 4: to make this a fifty to fifty fight. It's going

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Speaker 4: to be close and competitive. Again, two French fighters, so

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Speaker 4: the crowd not necessarily going to favor either, and you're

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Speaker 4: not gonna get that hometown judging. You got two French

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Speaker 4: fighters going against one another, but yes, closing competitive decision.

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Speaker 4: I believe this fight is also wined to go to

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Speaker 4: a decision at minus two hundred to minus two twenty five,

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Speaker 4: and as we always talk about underdogs and fights likely

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Speaker 4: to go to a decision, I expect this to be

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Speaker 4: close and competitive, and Gomis never really separates from his

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Speaker 4: opponents either, so maybe he wins this with boring top control,

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Speaker 4: but I expect Gomory to make it much more competitive

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Speaker 4: than the plus one seventy five money line, but indicate

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Speaker 4: So that is one of my underdogs. And then the

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Speaker 4: other one is Bogdan Guskov, a new UFC arrival, UFC debutante.

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Speaker 4: Kind of tough to gauge as a level of his

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Speaker 4: opponents that he's fought, but I think for a light heavyweight,

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Speaker 4: this guy's a pretty well rounded skill set brown belt

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Speaker 4: and Brazilian jiu jitsu. Clear knockout power does seem like

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Speaker 4: a little bit of a glass cannon, but going against Volcanosdamir,

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Speaker 4: who to me has knockout power, which physically seems to

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Speaker 4: be very much on the back end of his career. Really,

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Speaker 4: his only recent win came against Paul Craig, who provided

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Speaker 4: you don't get taken down and submitted or just get

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Speaker 4: taken down beat up like andr Yamaneese, did you can

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Speaker 4: beat Paul Craig. Anybody can beat Paul Craig, even lower

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00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,360
Speaker 4: rank fighters in the division, but Volcano is the miir

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Speaker 4: to me physically declining, I think this is just going

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Speaker 4: to be an absolute war, you know, probably going to

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Speaker 4: end inside of the first round. But again underdog at

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Speaker 4: plus money plus one fifty, and I think goose Gov

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Speaker 4: inside the distance as well, but would not touch the

390
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Speaker 4: under one and a half after getting juiced up from

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Speaker 4: about minus one thirty five to minus one fifty, I

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Speaker 4: think that cashes, but I'm not necessarily going Vulcan's been

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Speaker 4: a pretty durable guy throughout a square. So these two

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Speaker 4: just sort of slug it out and it gets over

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Speaker 4: that seven and a half minute mark.

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Speaker 3: I'm not gonna be shocked.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, goose Gov, I think uh just as just

398
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Speaker 4: as much finishing equity, and he's the younger man, so

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Speaker 4: gonna take the underdog money.

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00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:50,200
Speaker 1: Clin Billy underdog that jumps out UFC paris.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at Rees McKee and since I put

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Speaker 5: this bad in last night, it's chopped from plus one

403
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Speaker 5: forty eight to I think plus one forty Still like

404
00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,639
Speaker 5: it there. This is the second UFC stint for McKee.

405
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:02,840
Speaker 5: He only got two fights during the COVID era in

406
00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:07,080
Speaker 5: his last chance in the promotion, and his debut was

407
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Speaker 5: against Hamzat Chimayev, who at the time was a unknown Swedish.

408
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:11,719
Speaker 6: Prospect that no one had ever heard of.

409
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 5: Obviously, we know how good Hamsad has been since then,

410
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:19,360
Speaker 5: so that loss looks a little bit less sad in retrospect.

411
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,440
Speaker 5: But since then he went back to Cage Warriors three

412
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,159
Speaker 5: consecutive knockouts won the Cage Warriors welterweight title. You know,

413
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Speaker 5: I've been breaking down the Contender Series fights slightly, and

414
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Speaker 5: these guys coming out of Cage Warriors, especially their champions,

415
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 5: are consistently very solid, Like this is not some mid

416
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 5: level regional promotion. This is fairly high level stuff over

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00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:39,480
Speaker 5: there in Cage Warriors. So I put a lot of

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Speaker 5: respect on their champions. And he's fighting Onjelusa, who I'm

419
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Speaker 5: very not impressed by. One Lusa one in one in

420
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Speaker 5: the UFC, his only win was against a J. Fletcher,

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Speaker 5: who we could probably debate his own UFC worthiness, also

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Speaker 5: a Contender Series loser that managed to get back into

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Speaker 5: the promotion. I think this line should be about flipped

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Speaker 5: with McKee as roughly a minus one forty favorite, so

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Speaker 5: plus one forty underdog. I like that, wish I would

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Speaker 5: have got to it a little bit sooner before the

427
00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 5: line drop, but I'm riding with that one.

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Speaker 1: Ont props and then we'll go to best bets before

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Speaker 1: we wrap Zilla. Where you looking for props potentially this week?

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Speaker 1: And we mentioned a couple of round totals when we

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Speaker 1: featured the main event, But what else stands out for

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Speaker 1: a potential prop play?

433
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:21,440
Speaker 3: Yeah?

434
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 4: About between Morgan Sherri Aer the last pirate great nickname

435
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 4: Manola Zacchini, which is immediately one of my favorite names

436
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 4: in the UFC fun You just got.

437
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: A thing for pirates, man, I mean the pirates baseball

438
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,360
Speaker 1: and it might just be a pirate bias you got.

439
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:39,119
Speaker 4: I don't know if I've ever seen a you know,

440
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 4: an MMA fighter with pirate in the nickname. I kind

441
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,399
Speaker 4: of dig it, especially French pirate. But yeah, you know,

442
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 4: Zacchini is an incredibly, incredibly aggressive fighter, and I think

443
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 4: this fight is going to finish just because he decides

444
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 4: that he wants it to. You know, anybody who tuned

445
00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 4: into the main event last week between Halloway and Korean Zombie,

446
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 4: you saw the way Korean Zombie came out in that

447
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 4: third round and created basically, you know, as reckless of

448
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 4: a situation as he could to try to create a

449
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:10,560
Speaker 4: high variant spot where he might be able to catch

450
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 4: Max and got knocked out himself because he got too reckless.

451
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 3: If you've ever played like the UFC.

452
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,359
Speaker 4: Video game, you know, if you're very patient, right, you

453
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 4: can kind of pick apart your opponent, but if you

454
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 4: get too reckless, people who are good at the game

455
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:21,920
Speaker 4: are going to knock you out really quickly.

456
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 3: And Zacchini kind of fights like that.

457
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 4: He just sort of goes balls to the wall and

458
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,120
Speaker 4: comes forward and tries to put his opponents and himself

459
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 4: in high variant situations. And considering he's a three to

460
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:35,560
Speaker 4: one underdog here, I don't think that's necessarily a bad strategy.

461
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 4: You know, if you can make the fight last three minutes,

462
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 4: but give yourself a forty percent chance to win in

463
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 4: a brawl as opposed to giving yourself a twenty five

464
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,359
Speaker 4: percent chance to win just by you know, point fighting

465
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 4: over fifteen minutes, I think that's certainly a more optimal

466
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,479
Speaker 4: path to take. And this guy seems to know his

467
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 4: win condition and just goes for it, So don't think

468
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,199
Speaker 4: Charier is some particularly big finisher. He's gone decision I

469
00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,159
Speaker 4: believe more than half the time in his career thirteen

470
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 4: of his career fights. He's also five and eight decisions,

471
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,679
Speaker 4: so he's not a good point fighter either, so he

472
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 4: might actually want to try to finish this fight as well.

473
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 4: But Charier is minus one oh five to win inside

474
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 4: the distance compared to a money line that's I said

475
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 4: juiced up all the way to minus three fifty or higher.

476
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,879
Speaker 4: And this fight is also minus one fifty to end

477
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 4: inside the distance. I made that line closer to minus

478
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 4: two hundred. So considering the way Zacchini fights, I absolutely

479
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 4: think he's capable of winning this one quickly. If he doesn't,

480
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 4: I would worry about this fight potentially going all fifteen

481
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 4: minutes though, So still trying to figure out how I

482
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,160
Speaker 4: want to play this. If I want to play Cherier

483
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 4: minus one oh five, if I want to play the

484
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 4: unders at plus money, I think that might be a

485
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 4: better approach because I think if a finish happens here,

486
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 4: it's more likely to happen quickly rather than like a lot.

487
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 1: To unpack there with the nickname and then mentioning the

488
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 1: UFC video game that was that might be one of

489
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 1: your best breakdowns yet to date.

490
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, it's certain fights you just like, you

491
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 4: just see the pace before the fight fight starts, and

492
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 4: you're like, these these two guys are.

493
00:21:58,400 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 3: Just going to sort of sprint at each other and swim.

494
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 4: So minus one fifty I don't think is a bad

495
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 4: price given the pace, But I just like, I hate

496
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 4: placing these bets that you lay juice on a fight

497
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 4: to end inside the distance and there's like three knockdowns

498
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 4: and it goes to the final belt, there's there's you know,

499
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 4: there's no worse sweat and mma betting than betting a

500
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 4: fight to go to a decision. But there's nothing worse

501
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 4: to watch than having a fight to end inside the

502
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 4: distance and they survive like an absolute war for fifteen minutes.

503
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 1: Okay, those of you that need hype music, you can

504
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 1: listen to Pirates of the Caribbean the soundtrack to get

505
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: hyped for this one. Billy, what jumps out to you

506
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: in the prop market for UFC Paris.

507
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's hard to recover from that description by Zerillo,

508
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 5: I will say real quick. He mentioned the video game,

509
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 5: but there's guys, and I was one of them who

510
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 5: fight like that where someone's gonna win this real fast.

511
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 5: I'm not sure who it's going to be, but I

512
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 5: just want to get out of here. So that was

513
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 5: that was a lot of my fight career, especially what

514
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 5: it's worth.

515
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: I would I would pay to watch Zerlo and Billy

516
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: Ward face each other in a UFC video game, taking

517
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: all of their analysis into account and how they go

518
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 1: against each other because I'm zero a you a video

519
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 1: game guy?

520
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, honestly, not during you know, the past six months

521
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 4: during baseball season. But yeah, a little bit of Madden,

522
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 4: a little bit of FIFA, uh you know, former former

523
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 4: University of Miami campus champion and FIFA.

524
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 6: Uh get out of here.

525
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 3: I've got some skills.

526
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, mostly uh, mostly FIFA, Madden, a little bit of

527
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 4: ashell because it.

528
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 1: Kind of it kind of sounded like in your breakdown,

529
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 1: You're it was kind of a dig, like, well, you

530
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: know when you play people that don't know what they're doing.

531
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 6: Uh now, no, no, I'm I'm not.

532
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 4: I'm the guy who doesn't know what he's doing. You know,

533
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 4: I'm the guy who like tries to create the highbri

534
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:42,439
Speaker 4: in fight and gets knocked out by people who are

535
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 4: better than me. So I you know, I wish I

536
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,400
Speaker 4: was better at uh fighting video games. I just don't

537
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 4: seem to have the timing that other people do.

538
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 1: So okay, so I could couldn't help myself and see the.

539
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,400
Speaker 3: Whole field in soccer. But yeah, one on one fight,

540
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 3: I'm gonna get picked apart.

541
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 1: We we rarely go off the rails on this podcast.

542
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: We're pretty uh, we're pretty on the nose of everything.

543
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 1: Go ahead, Billy prop.

544
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 6: Please, Yeah, no worries.

545
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 5: I'm looking at Clayton Rodriguez at books where you can

546
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 5: better spread plus three and a half and just as

547
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 5: the reminder that basically means he needs the fight to

548
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 5: go to a decision.

549
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,120
Speaker 6: And win at least one round of a three round fight.

550
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 5: And I'm tempted, honestly to bet him as a underdog

551
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 5: against Freed boscheratt I really liked that Clayton is coming

552
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 5: up to one thirty five.

553
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 6: He missed weight in both of his UFC fights so far,

554
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 6: and he.

555
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 5: Also kind of wore out down the stretch of both

556
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 5: of his UFC well not both of his UFC fights,

557
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 5: one of them he won in less than a minute.

558
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 5: The other one, he kind of tired as it went on,

559
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 5: but definitely won the first round. And when we have

560
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 5: a guy who's such a fast starter, if he wins

561
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 5: that first round, you're plus three and a half cashes

562
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 5: as long as it makes it to a decision, which

563
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 5: isn't too unlikely of an ask against freed boscherat who's

564
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 5: I don't think quite the fighter that his brother is.

565
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 5: He's gone to a decision in both his Contender Series

566
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 5: fight and his UFC debut. He's a very good fighter,

567
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 5: but I don't think he has the power to put

568
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,400
Speaker 5: this one away. Also, Clayton should have a grappling edge

569
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 5: here a little bit, or at least just an before

570
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 5: he can get one round and look kind of dangerous

571
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 5: on the ground for a little bit. And we're just

572
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 5: banking on one round. So I thought he won his

573
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 5: split decision against c J. Vergara, which is his one

574
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 5: USC loss. But this guy is really fighting some highly

575
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 5: toutted prospects. He was booked against Tetsuro Tyra. Feels like

576
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 5: a little bit of a back off for him, and yeah,

577
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 5: we need one round. I'm gonna sprinkle a little bit

578
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 5: on his money line and is inside the distance, because

579
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:26,400
Speaker 5: I think Clayton has far more finishing upside here, which

580
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 5: is another big part because if your fighter gets to

581
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 5: finish in there at a plus spread line, that's a

582
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 5: guaranteed win as well.

583
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,639
Speaker 1: Okay, fellas, let's wrap up with best bets or a

584
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: final bet. What have we got this week? Zarillo?

585
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 4: I'm thinking right with the fight that Billy just talked

586
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 4: about Kletton Rodriguez, you know, as a big underdog here.

587
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 3: Not too long ago, before that CJ.

588
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 4: Bergara decision loss, Kletton Rodriguez has been a consistent minus

589
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 4: four hundred favorite in his own right against his UFC opponents,

590
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 4: and I think a lot of people thought he was

591
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 4: a potential serious contender in the flyway division. Now had

592
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 4: to move up, as Billy said, because he couldn't make weight,

593
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 4: and he is at a size this advantage here, even

594
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 4: though he was a pretty big, pretty big one twenty

595
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 4: five or even at one thirty five against Farred, he's

596
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 4: four inches four inch reach discrepancy in three inches shorter,

597
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 4: so there is a size advantage for bosch Rot. I

598
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 4: actually disagree with Billy on my analysis of the Bauscher

599
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 4: op others. I think Farid might be the better of

600
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 4: the Boucher up brothers, but I don't think either of

601
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 4: them are particularly good finishers. They're really good point fighters,

602
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 4: good wrestlers, but I don't think either of them Carr

603
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 4: is particularly big fouer or has particularly lethal submission skills

604
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,400
Speaker 4: for the bandamweight division, and this is a very deep

605
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 4: and talented division. Kleedson, as Billy mentioned, may actually have

606
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 4: more finishing upside in this fight, and I really love

607
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 4: Billy's play with the plus three and a half. I

608
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 4: think he can certainly finish this fight cash this bet.

609
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 4: I think he should win around especially the first round

610
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 4: should be really competitive, and the fact that he's moving

611
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,040
Speaker 4: up from one twenty five to one thirty five to

612
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 4: help his gas tank too. He tends to be very

613
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 4: aggressive in the first round. Curious to see if he

614
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 4: takes a more conservative approach here, and especially against the

615
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 4: guy who doesn't push a particularly crazy pace. So I

616
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 4: think we could get a or relatively moderate pace kickboxing

617
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 4: match in this fight where boucherat lands takedowns, gets top

618
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 4: time but doesn't finish the fight. I think Rodriguez more

619
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 4: than capable of staying safe on his back, so this

620
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 4: fight is juiced up to go to a decision minus

621
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 4: one sixty. Another fight I lined over minus two hundred

622
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 4: in that market, and I'm happy to bet this fight

623
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 4: to go to a decision. The over two and a

624
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 4: half I think is interesting as well, even though you

625
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 4: have to pay more juice just because you don't have

626
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: to deal with the potential cardio dynamics late in the fight.

627
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 4: But yes, I do expect a close and competitive fight

628
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 4: and a much closer line, or a much closer fight

629
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 4: than the money line to indicate between Rodriguez and Boscherot

630
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 4: not as interested in taking the shot on the underdog

631
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 4: here though, given the size to scrap and see, given

632
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 4: how I rate boscherat but I do think this goes

633
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 4: all fifteen minutes and stays relatively competitive. And then just

634
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 4: before I turned it over to Billy for best bets,

635
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 4: because I do want him to give any thoughts he

636
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 4: might have on our boy Ben was Saintani who is

637
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 4: also fighting on this card. He cash is a big underdog.

638
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,719
Speaker 4: A few weeks ago, I'm considering betting ben Wa at

639
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 4: minus one sixty. I think pre fight he is the

640
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 4: guy to bet. I think why you can come in

641
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 4: on Tiaga Moysist, but I want to hear Billy's thoughts

642
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 4: on that fight as well. That would have been my

643
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 4: fight of the night on this card, but we have

644
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,919
Speaker 4: some We have three really good ones to close out

645
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 4: this card with Fuero gone and then Ben was was

646
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,159
Speaker 4: Saintani against Tiaga Moysist. So Billy, here's to hear your

647
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 4: best bet, but also your thoughts on our boy BSD.

648
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 6: Yeah.

649
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 5: I'm real torn on that BSD fight because had he

650
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 5: not just beat who we thought of as a pretty

651
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 5: highly touted prospect in Ishmael bomb Fame, I'd probably be

652
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 5: on the other side. But I also don't like the

653
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 5: quick turnaround, so it's tricky. I'm probably staying away from it.

654
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 5: I haven't watched a ton of tape on Moyses lately,

655
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 5: which will probably be what I need to do before

656
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,479
Speaker 5: I make too strong of a decision. But minus one

657
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 5: sixty five or so on BSD feels like a playable line.

658
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 5: I wouldn't take it too much past that. I'm not

659
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,719
Speaker 5: sure if it's moved since I looked, But as far

660
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 5: as my best bet, I'm looking at Nora Cornole. I

661
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 5: believe I'm pronouncing her friend last name right and even money,

662
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 5: and this is a final bet. It's not a best bet,

663
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,479
Speaker 5: but it's mostly just a fate of Joslyn Edwards, who

664
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 5: has used or has won two straight split decisions in

665
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 5: the UFC, and I didn't go back and watch all

666
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 5: of them, but looking at the stats, there's a pretty

667
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 5: compelling argument that she could have lost one or both

668
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 5: of those. And she's fighting a fighter who's six and one.

669
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 5: All six of her wins are inside the distance. So

670
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 5: when we've got a slight underdog, all the finishing upside

671
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 5: French crowd behind her against a fighter who's gotten considerably

672
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 5: lucky with two splits in a row, that feels like

673
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 5: even money.

674
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 6: Don't know enough.

675
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 5: About Cornole that I'd be willing to lay too much

676
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 5: juice on it, but it even money, I'm definitely taking that.

677
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 6: Yeah.

678
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 4: The Edwards' last decision went against Pudolovo, was one of

679
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 4: the worst in recent memory. I'm on MMA decisions right now.

680
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 4: Eighty nine fans and all media scorecards went to Poodlova.

681
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 4: There were two thirty twenty seven media scorecards. There was

682
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 4: a twenty nine to twenty seven media scorecard in favorite Poodolova.

683
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 4: I have no idea Edwards won that decision, and yes,

684
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 4: I was on Poodolova in that fight, so one of

685
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 4: the worst decisions in recent memory. I don't think her

686
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 4: fight before that should have been a split. That seemed

687
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 4: like that was a clear win for her. But yeah,

688
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 4: that that last fight is about as agreedious of a

689
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 4: decision loss as you can get to UFC, and you.

690
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 6: Just expect those to even out over time.

691
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 5: But especially when you're fighting in front of your home

692
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 5: crowd and every little thing you do is going to

693
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 5: get a huge reaction from the crowd and influence the judges,

694
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 5: and everyone's going to be booing your opponent and not

695
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,479
Speaker 5: giving her any pops. So I think that's a big

696
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 5: factor in this too. I talk about it with baseball

697
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 5: stuff like if a pitcher, if we're expecting regression in

698
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 5: one direction or another with a pitcher, it's going to

699
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 5: be more likely to happen against a team that hits

700
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 5: that handedness well or a team that strikes out last

701
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 5: or whatever than it is in a tough matchup for him,

702
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 5: And similar logic.

703
00:30:57,560 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 6: Here, gentlemen.

704
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 1: Great stuff that is our UFC paris betting preview here

705
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast that concludes really our season

706
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: because we are transitioning to all NFL and college football

707
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 1: here on the Action Network Podcast with those schedules upcoming.

708
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: I continue to learn so much from you guys hosting

709
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 1: this show, so greatly appreciate your insight. You'll still be

710
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 1: very much on the UFC coverage as it pertains to

711
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: the Action app and actionnetwork dot Com for those big events.

712
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: So great stuff by shan Zillo and Billy Ward. Gents,

713
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 1: way to go on a good year.

714
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 6: Thanks for Havyon for listening. I had a great time

715
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 6: with this.

716
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 5: It's the highlight of my summer sporting schedule with no

717
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 5: football getting to do this, Okay.

718
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 1: Appreciate Matt Mitchell David Paine as well. They cut up

719
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: the audio and put the posts the podcast out, as

720
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: well as our video team over at Action Network on

721
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: the YouTube side. So great stuff. That concludes our UFC

722
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 1: Paris Betting preview. As I said, stay tuned for a

723
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 1: lot more coming with NFL and college football as the

724
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: fall begins very very soon. For Shonzarello, Billy Ward, Brendan Glashen,

725
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 1: thanks for listening to the Action Network Podcast presented by Fandel.

726
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: You all have a safe and happy holiday weekend, get outside.

727
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: You don't need to play video games. Soerrolo. I think

728
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 1: it's to be a beautiful weekend for the most part

729
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 1: in the Northeast, and maybe if it gets rainy, watch

730
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 1: pirates at the Caribbean. You all have a great weekend,

731
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 1: so yeah. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

732
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

733
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

734
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler