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Speaker 1: I should get overtime pay for staying up tonight and
Speaker 1: talking about this awful Seattle six to three went over
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a
Speaker 1: broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over three hundred
Speaker 1: yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 1: That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the
Speaker 1: first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this
Speaker 1: team in this season. I mean, they're using a basically
Speaker 1: their third different person is sort of assembling the game
Speaker 1: plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an
Speaker 1: absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC.
Speaker 1: He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really
Speaker 1: nice throws tonight. I mean Gino smith Is, I mean
Speaker 1: just a ham and egger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent.
Speaker 1: But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise.
Speaker 1: There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises.
Speaker 1: Let's let's let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets.
Speaker 1: They had Robert Sola for years, an excellent defensive coach.
Speaker 1: Joe Douglas whipped on a quarterback in a COVID year,
Speaker 1: But that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks,
Speaker 1: it's very good. He also went and got Davonte Adams
Speaker 1: before he got fired, and Deavante and Aaron are connecting.
Speaker 1: Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out
Speaker 1: and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like
Speaker 1: he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic,
Speaker 1: accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's I don't trust the ownership. You know,
Speaker 1: Kevin Warren, the president, has a reputation is more Paula
Speaker 1: Titians and football expert Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen,
Speaker 1: keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think
Speaker 1: he's done a terrible job last year. Four picks. He
Speaker 1: took a punter. That's not what I would have done.
Speaker 1: They could have, you know, made more moves, eber flues.
Speaker 2: The staff.
Speaker 1: It's a mess. I mean, it's just nothing that's redeemable
Speaker 1: about the franchise outside of Caleb Williams and a couple
Speaker 1: of players Montes Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore. You know,
Speaker 1: they've got a couple of players I like, But everybody
Speaker 1: in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just
Speaker 1: nobody could have succeeded here. You know, tonight it was
Speaker 1: an unwatchable mess. And all the fears that Kayleb Williams
Speaker 1: had privately going to Chicago. I mean I reported this
Speaker 1: last year. I got pushedback on it, but people in
Speaker 1: his camp were worried this franchise. I mean, look at
Speaker 1: Chicago's ports right now, White Sox, Blackhawks, Bears. I don't
Speaker 1: have any ability to decipher why not great ownership is
Speaker 1: a place to start, but I feel I feel sad
Speaker 1: for the kid because and you can see the talent.
Speaker 1: I mean you you would have to be trying to
Speaker 1: make an argument to say you can't see his talent.
Speaker 1: I mean last night or tonight was the first interception
Speaker 1: he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween.
Speaker 1: And that's why this idea that you can just go
Speaker 1: out and get some you know, Ben Johnson and he's
Speaker 1: going to change the world. You know, that guy's never
Speaker 1: been a head coach at the high school level. There
Speaker 1: are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I
Speaker 1: don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL,
Speaker 1: I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs
Speaker 1: are good. And if Oz Mike Frable, I'd sit it
Speaker 1: out for a year because I think next year you
Speaker 1: could possibly have the Cowboys, Bengals and Joe Burrow would
Speaker 1: be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out
Speaker 1: there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott
Speaker 1: does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a
Speaker 1: good coach, could be in trouble. So though, those are
Speaker 1: really good opportunities, and there's only been three great coaching
Speaker 1: opportunities in the last eight years, Green Bay Matt Lafleur,
Speaker 1: I think Mike McCarthy and Dallas and getting Justin Herbert
Speaker 1: with a Chargers. Those are really high end coaching opportunities.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't want the Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other
Speaker 1: takeaway in this game, it's funny the number one position
Speaker 1: in the NFL over the last twenty years that has
Speaker 1: been the biggest bust rate in the first round is
Speaker 1: wide receiver, And obviously, you know wide receivers can make
Speaker 1: dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have Smith and Jigba first rounder,
Speaker 1: DK Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end, and Noah
Speaker 1: Fant excellent running back Charboney who's their second back. But
Speaker 1: equality Gino Smith can't play. You're eight, nine, nine and
Speaker 1: eight with Gino Smith. That's just what it is, you know,
Speaker 1: Roma Dunza, what can you do? They've been better off
Speaker 1: going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead, they
Speaker 1: went in later rounds and got some prospect I think
Speaker 1: from Yale, and you know, can he play? We'll see.
Speaker 1: You know, you look at the Chargers who are going
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver.
Speaker 1: They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe
Speaker 1: Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: They have two of the best young tackles offensive tackles
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Yeah. I was just watching it tonight
Speaker 1: and I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver
Speaker 1: talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzae and DK Metcalf
Speaker 1: second rounder in Smith and Jigbin. What's it matter if
Speaker 1: you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you
Speaker 1: have a mediocre quarterback and I like John Snyder as
Speaker 1: general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job,
Speaker 1: but I think he made a major mistake last year
Speaker 1: in the year before not afting a quarterback. And I
Speaker 1: said it at the time. I'm not you know, I'm
Speaker 1: not looking through the rear view mirror here. I said it.
Speaker 3: Last year.
Speaker 1: Seattle's roster is really solid d line, solid skilled positions,
Speaker 1: good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move. They're just
Speaker 1: mediocre quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight. And
Speaker 1: you know, I just Chicago fans al Michael's touched on this.
Speaker 1: I mean, they are being handed just tire fires and
Speaker 1: all their sports and come out tonight and pack that stadium.
Speaker 1: Is you know, it's a tip of the cap to
Speaker 1: one of the great American cities and sports cities because
Speaker 1: fans in that city are getting ripped off. The quality
Speaker 1: is awful. It's always been a very political city and
Speaker 1: it feels like the same with the Bears. It just
Speaker 1: feels like a kind of a political hot mess. So again,
Speaker 1: I think my first choice would be vable. I don't
Speaker 1: know if he'd accept it. I have real reservations about
Speaker 1: all these hot shot offensive coordinators a year ago, Bobby
Speaker 1: Slowick Houston OC was a genius. Houston can't score this year.
Speaker 2: C J.
Speaker 1: Stroud has regressed badly. Uh you know the Cliff Kingsbury,
Speaker 1: who I like a lot, but he struggled as a
Speaker 1: head coach college and pro. You gotta be careful. I mean,
Speaker 1: there was a time when everybody was bragging about Shane
Speaker 1: Waldron and rehabbing Geno Smith. Shane Waldron, you know, I
Speaker 1: don't even know where he's at now. He got booted
Speaker 1: out of the Bears organization. So I think when when
Speaker 1: a franchise is broken, you got to you got to
Speaker 1: get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit harbab Mike Framele.
Speaker 1: That's what it feels like to me. It's a mess.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 1: I thought it was interesting this week before we get
Speaker 1: to Chad Millman with our sharpened Square segment. I think
Speaker 1: one of the things that is a pretty good sign
Speaker 1: that you're going to solve a problem is when you
Speaker 1: admit you have a problem. I think anytime a sport
Speaker 1: or a business gets defensive about an issue, it just
Speaker 1: signals you're not going to solve the issue. Kevin Durant,
Speaker 1: Lebron James Joe Missoula and Adam Silver have all acknowledged
Speaker 1: in the last ten days that the NBA esthetically has
Speaker 1: a problem. Now they've got very nice ratings. You know,
Speaker 1: Lebron and Steph just get ratings period. It doesn't matter
Speaker 1: if they've play together in the Olympics, the finals are
Speaker 1: on Christmas. Lebron and stephf get numbers. They still carry
Speaker 1: the league from a TV rating standpoint. But I think
Speaker 1: I like the idea that all the top stars, you're
Speaker 1: Katie Lebron, the Celtics coach, and Adam Silver acknowledge, Yeah,
Speaker 1: we got ninety three's a game. It's just it's homogeneous,
Speaker 1: it's monotonous, it's cookie cutter. And you know, a lot
Speaker 1: of people are trying to take this issue and anybody
Speaker 1: that's critical of the league, well, you know, you're an
Speaker 1: old head. You're romanticizing the past. I have said ten
Speaker 1: times on the air minimum the Pacers Nicks free throw
Speaker 1: shooting contests, Reggie Miller against Spike Lee is the most
Speaker 1: overrated finals of my life. It was one of the
Speaker 1: team they were scoring in the seventies. It was awful.
Speaker 1: I mean, like seven to eight of the ten starters
Speaker 1: couldn't shoot. You know, it was all these romanticized tough
Speaker 1: guys that really couldn't handle the ball or shoot. It's
Speaker 1: not that I've always been an NBA fan, and playoff
Speaker 1: basketball is always better because the mid range game comes back.
Speaker 1: But it's very much I would liken it to baseball,
Speaker 1: and that Rob Manfred has never has raised the ire
Speaker 1: of curists. But he listened, and he went to the
Speaker 1: minor leagues and they tried this pitch clock, and it worked.
Speaker 1: Did it for a couple of years. They brought it
Speaker 1: to the bigs. There's no question I watched more baseball,
Speaker 1: no question I watched more baseball last year. And they
Speaker 1: got rid of the defensive shift because he wanted more
Speaker 1: stars on the bases, not in the dugout after lining
Speaker 1: out to right field where the second basement was standing.
Speaker 1: So these criticisms, the fact that the biggest stars in
Speaker 1: the NBA and and the commissioner are acknowledging, yeah, there's
Speaker 1: just too many guys that shouldn't be shooting threes. Shooting threes.
Speaker 1: I think that's good for the game. I think these discussions,
Speaker 1: when you make them actionable, are great for the NBA
Speaker 1: because listen, it's some of the world's greatest athletes. Playoff
Speaker 1: basketball can be a lot of fun. The league sometimes
Speaker 1: has dipped its toe in politics, and that's turned off
Speaker 1: a lot of people in the country.
Speaker 3: And I get it.
Speaker 1: I'd love to see Jimmy Butler go to a team
Speaker 1: and add some juice to a team like the Warriors.
Speaker 1: But I've always loved pro basketball, and I've always loved
Speaker 1: basketball in general. But I thought this week was a
Speaker 1: really healthy, not divisive, really healthy discussions about the future
Speaker 1: of the game. Baseball made changes completely paid off within
Speaker 1: a year and really paid off within two years. So
Speaker 1: people can argue on the internet. It's almost like the
Speaker 1: NIL and transfer portal. I'm for both, but you need guidelines.
Speaker 1: Miami's basketball coach you know just retired, said, you know,
Speaker 1: NIL has no guardrails. I'm out, And of course people
Speaker 1: jump on jim Larnega and say Miami Hurricanes goes, well, well,
Speaker 1: you moved, you were at George Mason, you moved. Yes,
Speaker 1: coaches of Boa has moved and they'll continue to move,
Speaker 1: and players will continue to move. But when like eight
Speaker 1: guys of your thirteen on scholarship bail and you have
Speaker 1: a good program, You're spending so much time recruiting your
Speaker 1: own players forget other high schoolers and AAU stars, that
Speaker 1: it makes the game daunting. It's just a you need relentless,
Speaker 1: youthful energy to keep up. I mean, Jay Wright should
Speaker 1: be coaching now. It just wears you out, and so
Speaker 1: if you want to retain your best coaches and have
Speaker 1: more continuity, I don't think the NIL or transfer portal
Speaker 1: are ruining the sport. I've had more fun watching college
Speaker 1: football this year than previous years. But it's okay to
Speaker 1: have these live discussions and don't get defensive about it.
Speaker 1: You know, transfer portal One thing I like about it.
Speaker 1: Quarterbacks run the sport, and if you need one, Oregon's
Speaker 1: just going to go get a new one every year.
Speaker 1: Keeps Oregon. You don't have these build, big, long rebuilding
Speaker 1: years for these top programs. So I'm for all this stuff.
Speaker 1: I just like the NBA discussion, and I liked Baseball's discussions,
Speaker 1: which they turn actionable right, and I like the NIL discussion.
Speaker 1: You can take any side you want, but anything in
Speaker 1: life that improves over discussion, I'm here for. Well, it's
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Speaker 1: All right, here we go another edition of Sharper Square.
Speaker 1: Chad Milman cost to the favorites. I will have a
Speaker 1: couple of college games in here as well because of
Speaker 1: I think some of the lines are work in our favor.
Speaker 1: By the way, I enjoy the college football playoff. You know,
Speaker 1: first rounds of the NCAA tournament, first rounds of the
Speaker 1: tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect. I suspect
Speaker 1: going forward the second round will be reseeded. That would
Speaker 1: be my guess. It will expand to fourteen or sixteen teams.
Speaker 1: I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to
Speaker 1: the tournament. What say you?
Speaker 4: Yeah, totally. I feel like two things out of this one.
Speaker 4: The first point you just made every year in March madness.
Speaker 4: The first round has you know, sixteen fourteen blowouts and
Speaker 4: two great games, and then like but everyone remembers the
Speaker 4: great games, the argument will expand the field, and then
Speaker 4: all of a sudden, you're going to span the field
Speaker 4: and there's going to be a MAC team that beat
Speaker 4: upsetting a Big ten team at twelve to five scenario.
Speaker 3: You're going to have that in college football one day.
Speaker 3: I don't worry about it.
Speaker 4: Also, two, you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State,
Speaker 4: after Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana and after
Speaker 4: SMU was getting it handed to them by Penn State.
Speaker 4: I was in a tech chain with a bunch of
Speaker 4: IU buddies, right and I was saying, you can guarantee
Speaker 4: right now, next year, over correction for SEC and strength
Speaker 4: of schedule, you get seven SEC teams. You'll get two
Speaker 4: Big ten teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State.
Speaker 4: You'll get Clemson out of the ACC, you'll get who
Speaker 4: Cares out of the Big twelve, and you'll get Boise State. Right,
Speaker 4: because you won't get the at large team. You won't
Speaker 4: get the third Big ten team because now the committee
Speaker 4: is too scared because of all these blowouts.
Speaker 3: So you're now you're going to get just.
Speaker 4: The sec and when those teams are blown out in
Speaker 4: the first round, then you expand and you're like, ask,
Speaker 4: We're just going to let everybody in and hopefully we
Speaker 4: get some upsets sometime down the road.
Speaker 3: That's my take, all.
Speaker 1: Right, So we'll have some college football picks. We'll start
Speaker 1: with the NFL Broncos plus three and a half head
Speaker 1: coach Sean Payton with extra time. They played on Thursday.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati's defense is atrocious. I think people are overreacting to
Speaker 1: just how good Joe Burrow is. They can't stop people
Speaker 1: offensive coach extra time. Listen, they outplayed the Chargers for
Speaker 1: the first half, and you know then Justin Herbert just
Speaker 1: did what great quarterbacks do. He took the game over.
Speaker 1: This one jumped out to me as an overreaction. Broncos
Speaker 1: plus three and a half sharper square.
Speaker 3: So it's totally sharp. You nailed it about Joe Burrow.
Speaker 4: The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game.
Speaker 4: Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and
Speaker 4: make brilliant plays like he's Superman because he was going
Speaker 4: to get sacked. He's purouetting into full on dives and
Speaker 4: throwing touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad
Speaker 4: that he had no choice but to look like someone
Speaker 4: who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of
Speaker 4: holds the ball. That's kind of his mo. He wants
Speaker 4: to throw the ball downfield. He wants to get it
Speaker 4: to Higgins, he wants to get it to Jamar Chase.
Speaker 4: I would want to do that too, So it's not
Speaker 4: entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will
Speaker 4: get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos
Speaker 4: have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they
Speaker 4: don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson, who, by the way, almost
Speaker 4: got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad
Speaker 4: the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some
Speaker 4: stats about bow Nicks that should make you feel more
Speaker 4: comfortable about this, because I betted at three and a
Speaker 4: half bow Nicks against bad defenses. So defense is below
Speaker 4: the fifty percent threshold across a variety of metrics in
Speaker 4: the NFL, of which the Bengals are won seven or
Speaker 4: zero straight up and against the spread twenty nine points
Speaker 4: per game thirteen touchdowns two interceptions. The Broncos are ranked
Speaker 4: as a better team than the Bengals across the board
Speaker 4: in all DVA metrics, Like it's over inflation on the
Speaker 4: Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals Joe Burrow
Speaker 4: looking like a superhero.
Speaker 1: Literally another game that jumped out to me. I don't
Speaker 1: like to bet. I don't like to bet bad teams.
Speaker 1: But the Saints probably the worst humiliation in the league
Speaker 1: this year, a standalone Monday night football game didn't score
Speaker 1: and it almost looked like they quit. Now they're at
Speaker 1: home getting a point against the horrible Raiders team Sharper Square.
Speaker 3: I don't even know what to say, Colin.
Speaker 4: In all the years we've been doing this, I will
Speaker 4: come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or
Speaker 4: here and try to get you to bet the ugly
Speaker 4: team in the worst game, and you're like, no, not
Speaker 4: betting a game I don't want to watch, not betting
Speaker 4: a bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before
Speaker 4: we came on the show, and I was thinking, all right,
Speaker 4: what game am I going to get him to bet
Speaker 4: that He's like, I haven't asked about it. It was
Speaker 4: the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the
Speaker 4: fly and think of a new game. Of course, we're
Speaker 4: betting the Saints here like they're getting They just got
Speaker 4: blown out in prime.
Speaker 3: Time, humiliated historically.
Speaker 4: Historically, you bet that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that
Speaker 4: they're playing JV players, it doesn't matter who their quarterback is,
Speaker 4: they're at home, they're as as a dog. They just
Speaker 4: got blown out. Every sort of trend says you play
Speaker 4: that team. On the other side, the Raiders. Look, they
Speaker 4: beat up on the Jags, but let's not be fooled.
Speaker 4: They had a ten game losing streak and the Jags
Speaker 4: kept turning the ball over.
Speaker 3: So I wouldn't be too.
Speaker 4: Anxious to bet on the Raiders as road favorites in
Speaker 4: this spot.
Speaker 3: Give me the Saints.
Speaker 4: Now, I gotta scramble and think of what my other
Speaker 4: game I'm going to try to get you to bed
Speaker 4: is well.
Speaker 1: I like the Falcons plus floor the Commanders, and the
Speaker 1: reason I like it is, I mean, Jaden Daniels was
Speaker 1: a hero at the end, but he just tried to
Speaker 1: give that thing away early. I think Michael Pennix is
Speaker 1: really good. I think they have a good offensive line
Speaker 1: will hold the Commander's pass rush off four points is
Speaker 1: a lot. I do not I think the Falcons are
Speaker 1: gonna be competitive. Listen, they're playing for a division title,
Speaker 1: all right. This is a big game for them. So
Speaker 1: this is not like the Commander and the Commanders aren't
Speaker 1: gonna get home field advantage. The Falcons can win home
Speaker 1: field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It just
Speaker 1: seems to me, again, it wasn't that they just beat
Speaker 1: the Giants. It's not just that, but Pennix's accuracy. Greg
Speaker 1: Cosell talked about it this week. This this kid has
Speaker 1: an arm. I don't care if it's windy. I like
Speaker 1: the Falcons plus four sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 4: Wise, guys, bet this down from four and a half too,
Speaker 4: or I'd be surprised if it isn't a three and
Speaker 4: a half or lower by the game. A lot of
Speaker 4: the reasons you just indicated, Michael Pennix had a lot
Speaker 4: of fans into the draft, A lot of professional betters
Speaker 4: don't forget.
Speaker 3: The draft has become a huge betting event.
Speaker 4: Professional betters are digging into game film from college the
Speaker 4: same way they're digging into game film on a week
Speaker 4: to week basis now because there's a money making opportunity.
Speaker 3: There's a market, right. Michael Penix is one of those guys.
Speaker 4: Not dissimilar from Jayden Daniels, not dissimilar from bow Knicks,
Speaker 4: not that dissimilar from Caleb Williams.
Speaker 3: A ton of film on the guy.
Speaker 4: He played a lot of college football, and some of
Speaker 4: the reasons why these guys who are coming in and
Speaker 4: having successes because they played so many games. We saw
Speaker 4: how accurate he could be. I love watching Penicks throw
Speaker 4: like I think his ball is so pretty. And also
Speaker 4: I don't think in a primetime game he is someone
Speaker 4: who would be cowed by the lights the way other
Speaker 4: rookies might. He's played in massive games. Talk about college
Speaker 4: football National Championship. That's a big game. I don't care
Speaker 4: if it's in college like that has huge steaks. So
Speaker 4: he's been in spots. He's older.
Speaker 3: I like it too.
Speaker 1: A couple of favorites that jump out to me. The
Speaker 1: Bills slip walked, sleepwalk through their win over New England,
Speaker 1: so you get those when you're a dominant team. The
Speaker 1: Jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now
Speaker 1: you've got Aaron Rodgers is not sure he's coming back.
Speaker 1: There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last
Speaker 1: six to eight weeks. But I think Buffalo is a
Speaker 1: significantly better team. Jetstro a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson
Speaker 1: is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here.
Speaker 1: I think Buffalo also watched the Ravens and the chief
Speaker 1: Yief's flex and play brilliantly. As favorites, there's a separation.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't like big favorites. I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: Buffalo minus eight and a half off all horrible winning
Speaker 1: performance Sharper square.
Speaker 3: So it's a little square.
Speaker 4: The numbers moved, you know, it's moved in the Jets direction.
Speaker 4: I can't fault you if you want to do this.
Speaker 4: Everything you just said is are all the reasons why
Speaker 4: I was on the Bills last week.
Speaker 3: I thought they'd want to flex.
Speaker 4: I thought they'd want to respond to Lamar Jackson throwing
Speaker 4: five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back
Speaker 4: in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that MVP.
Speaker 4: It didn't happen right Drake may was running, he was
Speaker 4: throwing accurately. Obviously different scenario, I lean into the Bills again.
Speaker 4: To be honest, I feel like everything you just said
Speaker 4: about the Jets is true, which is why I would
Speaker 4: want to back the Bills. Aaron Rodgers had been healthy
Speaker 4: for the past three weeks. He's now got a minor
Speaker 4: MCL issue on his knee. This team is a train wreck.
Speaker 4: I was all over the Jets last week. Whise guys
Speaker 4: were in the Jets last week. You cannot count in
Speaker 4: the Jets because the decision making of jeff Olbrick is
Speaker 4: so bad. He does not seem to understand the basic
Speaker 4: constructs of when to go fourth and fourth down, situational
Speaker 4: play clock management. If the Jets kick a field goal,
Speaker 4: I'm fourth and four from the Rams twelve yard line.
Speaker 4: Last week, they're up twelve to six, and that's the ballgame,
Speaker 4: Like the Rams were not doing anything. Instead, he twice
Speaker 4: went fourth and fourth downs and that's basically when the
Speaker 4: Rams won the game. So it's hard to bet on
Speaker 4: the Jets because jeff Elbrick is just so bad at.
Speaker 1: This one more NFL game, This line's moved back and forth.
Speaker 1: Panthers getting seven and a half division game at the
Speaker 1: Bucks Tampa is the better team. But all make the
Speaker 1: argument in the last month, Bryce Young is playing like
Speaker 1: a number one pick and c. J. Stroud's playing like
Speaker 1: a number two pick. The Panthers can move the ball.
Speaker 1: They've got a good coach. They can move the ball.
Speaker 1: Tampa's dinged up. I think they'll win, but division game
Speaker 1: a hot quarterback, it kind of feels like an easy one.
Speaker 4: Sharper square, totally sharp. I haven't understood this line all week.
Speaker 4: The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and
Speaker 4: a half, it went down to eight. Now it's at
Speaker 4: seven and a half because money has been coming under
Speaker 4: the Panthers. I think you're good until seven. You know,
Speaker 4: at seven you just sort of leave it alone. You
Speaker 4: want to get the hook off of that key number.
Speaker 4: A lot of games end on seven. That's when we
Speaker 4: talk about key numbers three, seven, those are the biggest ones.
Speaker 4: What's interesting about this game is a month ago they
Speaker 4: played it in Carolina, Tampa was a six and a
Speaker 4: half point favorite on the road, one in overtime because
Speaker 4: Tuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal.
Speaker 3: Range for the Bucks.
Speaker 4: Right, So now you take this game to Tampa, Tampa
Speaker 4: is only a point and a half better. When the
Speaker 4: line came out went from six and a half to eight, right,
Speaker 4: Normally home field is three points. What that's telling you
Speaker 4: is two things. One, bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers.
Speaker 4: They started off one and seven against the spread. Bryce
Speaker 4: Young was terrible. Professional betters had been betting, betting betting
Speaker 4: the Panthers. I'm sure listeners remember early in the year.
Speaker 4: I was all over the Panthers. Bryce Young two point
Speaker 4: zero is everything you just said. He's rolling out of
Speaker 4: the pocket using his legs, incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket,
Speaker 4: taking really hard hits. He's been great. He's been a
Speaker 4: really good quarterback, much better than CJ. Stroud, Like you said,
Speaker 4: so bookmakers have adjusted to that. To me, eight was
Speaker 4: still a little too high. Wise, guys agree, you're sharp.
Speaker 1: Take the Panthers a college football line that jumps out
Speaker 1: to me. I don't believe you can win a national
Speaker 1: championship with a bad defense. That's why I think Texas
Speaker 1: and Ohio State probably play for the Natty, and I
Speaker 1: do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at least in
Speaker 1: play to play for the national championship. Oregon's defense is bad.
Speaker 1: Boise State ran on it, Ohio State did whatever they
Speaker 1: wanted on it. Penn State did whatever they wanted against
Speaker 1: the Ducks. I'm trying to forget the Tennessee game because
Speaker 1: it was in Columbus, but Ohio State has played in
Speaker 1: the Rose Bowl before. Whether it's not a factor. I
Speaker 1: said before the season, Oregon's going to beat Ohio State
Speaker 1: at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in the rematch.
Speaker 1: It's under a field goal. I'd take the Buckeye sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Look, that's the sharp side right now, right, and that's
Speaker 4: where the money is. And when you see money, and
Speaker 4: sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually
Speaker 4: get betty percentages and money percentages. Money right now is
Speaker 4: on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State,
Speaker 4: which locks to Michigan lost to Oregon, has had a
Speaker 4: lot of drama, questions about Ryan Day, the fact they
Speaker 4: beat up Tennessee the way they did. Oregon has been
Speaker 4: out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a
Speaker 4: lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said,
Speaker 4: So that's the way the money has been going in
Speaker 4: this game. Look, it's fascinating, it's rare.
Speaker 1: You're going to.
Speaker 4: Get the second ranked, third ranked whatever it is team
Speaker 4: to be the favorite of the number one ranked team.
Speaker 4: But that's the spot we're in because of everything you
Speaker 4: just said.
Speaker 1: All right, there's a game I want you to kind
Speaker 1: of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both
Speaker 1: their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The
Speaker 1: Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six,
Speaker 1: it's now six and a half. Arizona doesn't travel well,
Speaker 1: so from time to time the Rams can feel like
Speaker 1: a road team at home. This won't be one of
Speaker 1: these times. I get the better quarterback, the better coach.
Speaker 1: The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're
Speaker 1: better than the line. That Jets game was built for
Speaker 1: them to lose early game, cold weather, good defense, and
Speaker 1: they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like it's
Speaker 1: six to six and a half. I have to bet
Speaker 1: the Rams. I know it's divisional sharper square if I
Speaker 1: like the Rams.
Speaker 4: Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams. But
Speaker 4: this is sort of the nuance of the betting business
Speaker 4: is getting the best of the number. This game on
Speaker 4: Sunday night opened Rams at minus four, So I'll do
Speaker 4: the favorites with professional better Simon Hunter on Sunday night
Speaker 4: on the Volume podcast network. We'll do it go on
Speaker 4: air at seven thirty.
Speaker 3: We'll do it live. We're off air before the Sunday
Speaker 3: night game.
Speaker 4: The timing is relevant here because we will preview the
Speaker 4: games that we like the most first glance, you know,
Speaker 4: gut instinct, not having done any research for the following week.
Speaker 4: This game stood out immediately. We started talking about the
Speaker 4: Rams minus four. Why is this number?
Speaker 3: Solow?
Speaker 4: The Rams just got out of a trap game against
Speaker 4: the Jets, and they won. The week before, they got lucky,
Speaker 4: the Niners dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners
Speaker 4: in a monsoon. Now they're going home, chance to clinch
Speaker 4: the division against a team that is down. James Connor injured.
Speaker 4: We saw him practicing but still limping. Offensive linemen injured.
Speaker 4: Not a very good defense. A coach who doesn't know
Speaker 4: how to keep his team up yet the way they
Speaker 4: say Sean McVay would, or even Mike McCarthy did with
Speaker 4: the Cowboys against the Bucks. The number during that show
Speaker 4: went from four to four and a half to five
Speaker 4: to five and a half. Thirty minutes, it moved a
Speaker 4: point and a half. By Monday morning it was six.
Speaker 4: And so when you're talking about why isn't it sharp
Speaker 4: to bet the Rams now, because the wise guy's been
Speaker 4: betting it since it was at four, four and a half, five,
Speaker 4: five and a half, and a little bit at six
Speaker 4: until it got to six and a half. It got
Speaker 4: to seven, and wise guys started betting the Cardinals at seven.
Speaker 3: Again, the Rams are the right side, but if.
Speaker 4: You want to win as a better long term then
Speaker 4: you have to have enough discipline to choose the best
Speaker 4: of the number and then walk away. If you don't
Speaker 4: feel like you're getting it. You can still bet the
Speaker 4: Rams at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning,
Speaker 4: but it's not going to be a sharp side at
Speaker 4: six and a half. All right.
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you I've had a lousy year betting,
Speaker 1: but so far I've got seven of eight division winners.
Speaker 1: I picked a surprise playoff team every year. It was
Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders. I pick a team that will double
Speaker 1: the Vegas win told it was the Denver Broncos. I
Speaker 1: said this on the air today on TV on FS one.
Speaker 1: There's the old saying with kids, the days are long,
Speaker 1: but the years fly by, and I feel like with
Speaker 1: the NFL week to week it's crazy, but over the
Speaker 1: course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had
Speaker 1: a terrible year betting because I tend to take underdogs
Speaker 1: and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites,
Speaker 1: but a lot of favorites. Of one is I'm trying
Speaker 1: to think. I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars badly,
Speaker 1: but I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said
Speaker 1: to you, give me your width and the one you'll
Speaker 1: plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year.
Speaker 4: Oh, it's It's interesting. The Width started as the Panthers,
Speaker 4: just because I loved him. I just thought this team,
Speaker 4: this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line. More than anything,
Speaker 4: I just thought they were going to be much much better.
Speaker 4: It ended up being a whit because they started off
Speaker 4: so badly and I lost so much on them early
Speaker 4: in the year. I'll take a little bit credit that
Speaker 4: they got better, and so I'm glad about that.
Speaker 3: To me, the.
Speaker 4: One I'm most proud of is the Chargers. I love
Speaker 4: Jim Harbaugh and we didn't even talk about that game.
Speaker 4: I think he's a football savant, and I think that
Speaker 4: what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason
Speaker 4: why his teams turn around so quickly no matter the
Speaker 4: talent level. He knows the rules, he knows strategy, he
Speaker 4: knows clock management so well. What he did at the
Speaker 4: end of that first half against Sean Payton, who's a
Speaker 4: brilliant coach, was a masterclass.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 4: He takes the time out so they have to punt.
Speaker 4: The punk leads to the roughing the returner, the personal
Speaker 4: file that leads to the free kick leads to the
Speaker 4: Chargers having momentum and they win that game going away.
Speaker 4: That's good decision making, and you don't see That's what
Speaker 4: you don't see from Jeff Albrook. It's what you're not
Speaker 4: seeing from Jared Mayo, like you see the difference there.
Speaker 4: So to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because
Speaker 4: I thought they'd be good this year and I played
Speaker 4: it that way. By the way, I'll also tell you
Speaker 4: that the bet that I always love the most, which
Speaker 4: I'm still in play for, I always do sort of
Speaker 4: a round robin on the teams that are at twelve
Speaker 4: to one or shorter to win the Super Bowl, and
Speaker 4: I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups because you
Speaker 4: can usually get those at like between twenty and thirty
Speaker 4: five to one. So you bet the Chiefs and the Allions,
Speaker 4: you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the
Speaker 4: Ravens and the Lions, you bet the Ravens and the Eagles,
Speaker 4: and you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera,
Speaker 4: et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals.
Speaker 4: I'm alive with that if they made the playoffs. So
Speaker 4: I always like that bet and feel good now that
Speaker 4: the Chiefs and the Ravens at least are two of
Speaker 4: the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning
Speaker 4: of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions,
Speaker 4: and I feel good that those matchups are still in play.
Speaker 1: Chargers minus four at New England. As long as we're
Speaker 1: talking about Harbaugh tend to like teams favored. JK. Dobbins
Speaker 1: should play Gus Edwards out which side of a leen? Oh?
Speaker 3: I totally lean Chargers.
Speaker 4: And this is a walking into a hornet's nest. Like
Speaker 4: in any other year, you mentioned the favorites, right in
Speaker 4: any other year, We're playing the Patriots here we're playing
Speaker 4: a team that's out of it at home more than
Speaker 4: a field goal underdog, a team traveling that's fighting to
Speaker 4: make the playoffs. Every trend will tell you against the
Speaker 4: spread in this scenario, the underdog is the right play.
Speaker 4: But for what we just talked about, I think Harbaugh's
Speaker 4: a brilliant coach. I think that teams are making more
Speaker 4: aggressive decisions, so they're scoring more points.
Speaker 3: I think that the fact.
Speaker 4: That the most teams are starting field position at the
Speaker 4: thirty yard line is getting them closer to scoring in
Speaker 4: the other side of the field and making them more
Speaker 4: comfortable on fourth and four from the forty going forward
Speaker 4: instead of kicking a field goal.
Speaker 3: And so I think that's one of the reasons.
Speaker 4: Why we're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and
Speaker 4: favorites win is there's more opportunity for them to score
Speaker 4: at a higher rate in bigger chunks, and it's impacting betting,
Speaker 4: Like betters are not having a great year. You know,
Speaker 4: favorites have gone seventy one percent straight up this year,
Speaker 4: just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since
Speaker 4: two thy thirteen teams getting over sixty percent at the spread.
Speaker 4: So we talk about fading the public. We want to
Speaker 4: be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting
Speaker 4: over sixty percent of the spread, covering fifty six percent
Speaker 4: this year against the spread, home underdogs forty three percent
Speaker 4: against the spread this year. That'll be the third least
Speaker 4: profitable season since nineteen ninety. So for people like you,
Speaker 4: people like me, I want to fade the public. I
Speaker 4: want to bet home underdogs. That's usually where the value is.
Speaker 4: It's been a rough go of it.
Speaker 1: Man Chad Melman, co host of The Favorites. Good luck, Buddy,
Speaker 1: good luck to all of us. The volume