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Speaker 1: I should get overtime pay for staying up tonight and

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Speaker 1: talking about this awful Seattle six to three went over

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Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a

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Speaker 1: broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over three hundred

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Speaker 1: yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the

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Speaker 1: first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this

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Speaker 1: team in this season. I mean, they're using a basically

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Speaker 1: their third different person is sort of assembling the game

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Speaker 1: plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an

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Speaker 1: absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC.

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Speaker 1: He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really

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Speaker 1: nice throws tonight. I mean Gino smith Is, I mean

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Speaker 1: just a ham and egger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent.

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Speaker 1: But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise.

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Speaker 1: There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets.

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Speaker 1: They had Robert Sola for years, an excellent defensive coach.

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Speaker 1: Joe Douglas whipped on a quarterback in a COVID year,

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Speaker 1: But that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks,

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Speaker 1: it's very good. He also went and got Davonte Adams

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Speaker 1: before he got fired, and Deavante and Aaron are connecting.

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Speaker 1: Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out

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Speaker 1: and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like

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Speaker 1: he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic,

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Speaker 1: accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's I don't trust the ownership. You know,

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Speaker 1: Kevin Warren, the president, has a reputation is more Paula

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Speaker 1: Titians and football expert Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen,

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Speaker 1: keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think

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Speaker 1: he's done a terrible job last year. Four picks. He

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Speaker 1: took a punter. That's not what I would have done.

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Speaker 1: They could have, you know, made more moves, eber flues.

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Speaker 2: The staff.

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Speaker 1: It's a mess. I mean, it's just nothing that's redeemable

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Speaker 1: about the franchise outside of Caleb Williams and a couple

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Speaker 1: of players Montes Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore. You know,

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Speaker 1: they've got a couple of players I like, But everybody

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Speaker 1: in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just

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Speaker 1: nobody could have succeeded here. You know, tonight it was

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Speaker 1: an unwatchable mess. And all the fears that Kayleb Williams

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Speaker 1: had privately going to Chicago. I mean I reported this

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Speaker 1: last year. I got pushedback on it, but people in

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Speaker 1: his camp were worried this franchise. I mean, look at

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Speaker 1: Chicago's ports right now, White Sox, Blackhawks, Bears. I don't

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Speaker 1: have any ability to decipher why not great ownership is

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Speaker 1: a place to start, but I feel I feel sad

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Speaker 1: for the kid because and you can see the talent.

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Speaker 1: I mean you you would have to be trying to

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Speaker 1: make an argument to say you can't see his talent.

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Speaker 1: I mean last night or tonight was the first interception

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Speaker 1: he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween.

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Speaker 1: And that's why this idea that you can just go

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Speaker 1: out and get some you know, Ben Johnson and he's

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Speaker 1: going to change the world. You know, that guy's never

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Speaker 1: been a head coach at the high school level. There

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Speaker 1: are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I

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Speaker 1: don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs

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Speaker 1: are good. And if Oz Mike Frable, I'd sit it

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Speaker 1: out for a year because I think next year you

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Speaker 1: could possibly have the Cowboys, Bengals and Joe Burrow would

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Speaker 1: be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out

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Speaker 1: there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott

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Speaker 1: does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a

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Speaker 1: good coach, could be in trouble. So though, those are

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Speaker 1: really good opportunities, and there's only been three great coaching

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Speaker 1: opportunities in the last eight years, Green Bay Matt Lafleur,

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Speaker 1: I think Mike McCarthy and Dallas and getting Justin Herbert

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Speaker 1: with a Chargers. Those are really high end coaching opportunities.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't want the Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other

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Speaker 1: takeaway in this game, it's funny the number one position

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Speaker 1: in the NFL over the last twenty years that has

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Speaker 1: been the biggest bust rate in the first round is

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Speaker 1: wide receiver, And obviously, you know wide receivers can make

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Speaker 1: dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have Smith and Jigba first rounder,

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Speaker 1: DK Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end, and Noah

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Speaker 1: Fant excellent running back Charboney who's their second back. But

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Speaker 1: equality Gino Smith can't play. You're eight, nine, nine and

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Speaker 1: eight with Gino Smith. That's just what it is, you know,

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Speaker 1: Roma Dunza, what can you do? They've been better off

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Speaker 1: going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead, they

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Speaker 1: went in later rounds and got some prospect I think

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Speaker 1: from Yale, and you know, can he play? We'll see.

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Speaker 1: You know, you look at the Chargers who are going

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe

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Speaker 1: Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: They have two of the best young tackles offensive tackles

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. Yeah. I was just watching it tonight

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Speaker 1: and I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver

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Speaker 1: talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzae and DK Metcalf

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Speaker 1: second rounder in Smith and Jigbin. What's it matter if

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Speaker 1: you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you

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Speaker 1: have a mediocre quarterback and I like John Snyder as

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Speaker 1: general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job,

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Speaker 1: but I think he made a major mistake last year

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Speaker 1: in the year before not afting a quarterback. And I

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Speaker 1: said it at the time. I'm not you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not looking through the rear view mirror here. I said it.

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Speaker 3: Last year.

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Speaker 1: Seattle's roster is really solid d line, solid skilled positions,

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Speaker 1: good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move. They're just

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Speaker 1: mediocre quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight. And

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Speaker 1: you know, I just Chicago fans al Michael's touched on this.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they are being handed just tire fires and

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Speaker 1: all their sports and come out tonight and pack that stadium.

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Speaker 1: Is you know, it's a tip of the cap to

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Speaker 1: one of the great American cities and sports cities because

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Speaker 1: fans in that city are getting ripped off. The quality

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Speaker 1: is awful. It's always been a very political city and

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Speaker 1: it feels like the same with the Bears. It just

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Speaker 1: feels like a kind of a political hot mess. So again,

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Speaker 1: I think my first choice would be vable. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if he'd accept it. I have real reservations about

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Speaker 1: all these hot shot offensive coordinators a year ago, Bobby

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Speaker 1: Slowick Houston OC was a genius. Houston can't score this year.

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Speaker 2: C J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud has regressed badly. Uh you know the Cliff Kingsbury,

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Speaker 1: who I like a lot, but he struggled as a

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Speaker 1: head coach college and pro. You gotta be careful. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there was a time when everybody was bragging about Shane

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Speaker 1: Waldron and rehabbing Geno Smith. Shane Waldron, you know, I

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Speaker 1: don't even know where he's at now. He got booted

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Speaker 1: out of the Bears organization. So I think when when

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Speaker 1: a franchise is broken, you got to you got to

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Speaker 1: get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit harbab Mike Framele.

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Speaker 1: That's what it feels like to me. It's a mess.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: I thought it was interesting this week before we get

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Speaker 1: to Chad Millman with our sharpened Square segment. I think

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Speaker 1: one of the things that is a pretty good sign

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Speaker 1: that you're going to solve a problem is when you

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Speaker 1: admit you have a problem. I think anytime a sport

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Speaker 1: or a business gets defensive about an issue, it just

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Speaker 1: signals you're not going to solve the issue. Kevin Durant,

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Speaker 1: Lebron James Joe Missoula and Adam Silver have all acknowledged

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Speaker 1: in the last ten days that the NBA esthetically has

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Speaker 1: a problem. Now they've got very nice ratings. You know,

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Speaker 1: Lebron and Steph just get ratings period. It doesn't matter

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Speaker 1: if they've play together in the Olympics, the finals are

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Speaker 1: on Christmas. Lebron and stephf get numbers. They still carry

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Speaker 1: the league from a TV rating standpoint. But I think

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Speaker 1: I like the idea that all the top stars, you're

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Speaker 1: Katie Lebron, the Celtics coach, and Adam Silver acknowledge, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we got ninety three's a game. It's just it's homogeneous,

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Speaker 1: it's monotonous, it's cookie cutter. And you know, a lot

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Speaker 1: of people are trying to take this issue and anybody

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Speaker 1: that's critical of the league, well, you know, you're an

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Speaker 1: old head. You're romanticizing the past. I have said ten

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Speaker 1: times on the air minimum the Pacers Nicks free throw

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Speaker 1: shooting contests, Reggie Miller against Spike Lee is the most

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Speaker 1: overrated finals of my life. It was one of the

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Speaker 1: team they were scoring in the seventies. It was awful.

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Speaker 1: I mean, like seven to eight of the ten starters

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Speaker 1: couldn't shoot. You know, it was all these romanticized tough

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Speaker 1: guys that really couldn't handle the ball or shoot. It's

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Speaker 1: not that I've always been an NBA fan, and playoff

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Speaker 1: basketball is always better because the mid range game comes back.

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Speaker 1: But it's very much I would liken it to baseball,

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Speaker 1: and that Rob Manfred has never has raised the ire

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Speaker 1: of curists. But he listened, and he went to the

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Speaker 1: minor leagues and they tried this pitch clock, and it worked.

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Speaker 1: Did it for a couple of years. They brought it

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Speaker 1: to the bigs. There's no question I watched more baseball,

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Speaker 1: no question I watched more baseball last year. And they

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Speaker 1: got rid of the defensive shift because he wanted more

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Speaker 1: stars on the bases, not in the dugout after lining

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Speaker 1: out to right field where the second basement was standing.

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Speaker 1: So these criticisms, the fact that the biggest stars in

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Speaker 1: the NBA and and the commissioner are acknowledging, yeah, there's

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Speaker 1: just too many guys that shouldn't be shooting threes. Shooting threes.

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Speaker 1: I think that's good for the game. I think these discussions,

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Speaker 1: when you make them actionable, are great for the NBA

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Speaker 1: because listen, it's some of the world's greatest athletes. Playoff

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Speaker 1: basketball can be a lot of fun. The league sometimes

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Speaker 1: has dipped its toe in politics, and that's turned off

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Speaker 1: a lot of people in the country.

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Speaker 3: And I get it.

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Speaker 1: I'd love to see Jimmy Butler go to a team

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Speaker 1: and add some juice to a team like the Warriors.

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Speaker 1: But I've always loved pro basketball, and I've always loved

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Speaker 1: basketball in general. But I thought this week was a

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Speaker 1: really healthy, not divisive, really healthy discussions about the future

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Speaker 1: of the game. Baseball made changes completely paid off within

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Speaker 1: a year and really paid off within two years. So

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Speaker 1: people can argue on the internet. It's almost like the

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Speaker 1: NIL and transfer portal. I'm for both, but you need guidelines.

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Speaker 1: Miami's basketball coach you know just retired, said, you know,

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Speaker 1: NIL has no guardrails. I'm out, And of course people

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Speaker 1: jump on jim Larnega and say Miami Hurricanes goes, well, well,

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Speaker 1: you moved, you were at George Mason, you moved. Yes,

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Speaker 1: coaches of Boa has moved and they'll continue to move,

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Speaker 1: and players will continue to move. But when like eight

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Speaker 1: guys of your thirteen on scholarship bail and you have

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Speaker 1: a good program, You're spending so much time recruiting your

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Speaker 1: own players forget other high schoolers and AAU stars, that

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Speaker 1: it makes the game daunting. It's just a you need relentless,

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Speaker 1: youthful energy to keep up. I mean, Jay Wright should

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Speaker 1: be coaching now. It just wears you out, and so

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Speaker 1: if you want to retain your best coaches and have

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Speaker 1: more continuity, I don't think the NIL or transfer portal

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Speaker 1: are ruining the sport. I've had more fun watching college

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Speaker 1: football this year than previous years. But it's okay to

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Speaker 1: have these live discussions and don't get defensive about it.

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Speaker 1: You know, transfer portal One thing I like about it.

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Speaker 1: Quarterbacks run the sport, and if you need one, Oregon's

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Speaker 1: just going to go get a new one every year.

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Speaker 1: Keeps Oregon. You don't have these build, big, long rebuilding

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Speaker 1: years for these top programs. So I'm for all this stuff.

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Speaker 1: I just like the NBA discussion, and I liked Baseball's discussions,

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Speaker 1: which they turn actionable right, and I like the NIL discussion.

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Speaker 1: You can take any side you want, but anything in

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Speaker 1: life that improves over discussion, I'm here for. Well, it's

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go another edition of Sharper Square.

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman cost to the favorites. I will have a

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Speaker 1: couple of college games in here as well because of

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Speaker 1: I think some of the lines are work in our favor.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I enjoy the college football playoff. You know,

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Speaker 1: first rounds of the NCAA tournament, first rounds of the

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Speaker 1: tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect. I suspect

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Speaker 1: going forward the second round will be reseeded. That would

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Speaker 1: be my guess. It will expand to fourteen or sixteen teams.

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Speaker 1: I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to

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Speaker 1: the tournament. What say you?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, totally. I feel like two things out of this one.

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Speaker 4: The first point you just made every year in March madness.

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Speaker 4: The first round has you know, sixteen fourteen blowouts and

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Speaker 4: two great games, and then like but everyone remembers the

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Speaker 4: great games, the argument will expand the field, and then

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Speaker 4: all of a sudden, you're going to span the field

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Speaker 4: and there's going to be a MAC team that beat

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Speaker 4: upsetting a Big ten team at twelve to five scenario.

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Speaker 3: You're going to have that in college football one day.

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Speaker 3: I don't worry about it.

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Speaker 4: Also, two, you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State,

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Speaker 4: after Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana and after

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Speaker 4: SMU was getting it handed to them by Penn State.

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Speaker 4: I was in a tech chain with a bunch of

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Speaker 4: IU buddies, right and I was saying, you can guarantee

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Speaker 4: right now, next year, over correction for SEC and strength

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Speaker 4: of schedule, you get seven SEC teams. You'll get two

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Speaker 4: Big ten teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State.

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Speaker 4: You'll get Clemson out of the ACC, you'll get who

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Speaker 4: Cares out of the Big twelve, and you'll get Boise State. Right,

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Speaker 4: because you won't get the at large team. You won't

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Speaker 4: get the third Big ten team because now the committee

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Speaker 4: is too scared because of all these blowouts.

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Speaker 3: So you're now you're going to get just.

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Speaker 4: The sec and when those teams are blown out in

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Speaker 4: the first round, then you expand and you're like, ask,

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Speaker 4: We're just going to let everybody in and hopefully we

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Speaker 4: get some upsets sometime down the road.

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Speaker 3: That's my take, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, So we'll have some college football picks. We'll start

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Speaker 1: with the NFL Broncos plus three and a half head

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Speaker 1: coach Sean Payton with extra time. They played on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati's defense is atrocious. I think people are overreacting to

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Speaker 1: just how good Joe Burrow is. They can't stop people

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Speaker 1: offensive coach extra time. Listen, they outplayed the Chargers for

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Speaker 1: the first half, and you know then Justin Herbert just

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Speaker 1: did what great quarterbacks do. He took the game over.

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Speaker 1: This one jumped out to me as an overreaction. Broncos

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Speaker 1: plus three and a half sharper square.

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Speaker 3: So it's totally sharp. You nailed it about Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 4: The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game.

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Speaker 4: Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and

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Speaker 4: make brilliant plays like he's Superman because he was going

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Speaker 4: to get sacked. He's purouetting into full on dives and

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Speaker 4: throwing touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad

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Speaker 4: that he had no choice but to look like someone

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Speaker 4: who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of

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Speaker 4: holds the ball. That's kind of his mo. He wants

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Speaker 4: to throw the ball downfield. He wants to get it

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Speaker 4: to Higgins, he wants to get it to Jamar Chase.

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Speaker 4: I would want to do that too, So it's not

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Speaker 4: entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will

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Speaker 4: get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos

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Speaker 4: have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they

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Speaker 4: don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson, who, by the way, almost

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Speaker 4: got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad

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Speaker 4: the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some

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Speaker 4: stats about bow Nicks that should make you feel more

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Speaker 4: comfortable about this, because I betted at three and a

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Speaker 4: half bow Nicks against bad defenses. So defense is below

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Speaker 4: the fifty percent threshold across a variety of metrics in

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Speaker 4: the NFL, of which the Bengals are won seven or

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Speaker 4: zero straight up and against the spread twenty nine points

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Speaker 4: per game thirteen touchdowns two interceptions. The Broncos are ranked

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Speaker 4: as a better team than the Bengals across the board

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Speaker 4: in all DVA metrics, Like it's over inflation on the

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Speaker 4: Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals Joe Burrow

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Speaker 4: looking like a superhero.

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Speaker 1: Literally another game that jumped out to me. I don't

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Speaker 1: like to bet. I don't like to bet bad teams.

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Speaker 1: But the Saints probably the worst humiliation in the league

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Speaker 1: this year, a standalone Monday night football game didn't score

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Speaker 1: and it almost looked like they quit. Now they're at

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Speaker 1: home getting a point against the horrible Raiders team Sharper Square.

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Speaker 3: I don't even know what to say, Colin.

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Speaker 4: In all the years we've been doing this, I will

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Speaker 4: come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or

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Speaker 4: here and try to get you to bet the ugly

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Speaker 4: team in the worst game, and you're like, no, not

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Speaker 4: betting a game I don't want to watch, not betting

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Speaker 4: a bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before

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Speaker 4: we came on the show, and I was thinking, all right,

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Speaker 4: what game am I going to get him to bet

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Speaker 4: that He's like, I haven't asked about it. It was

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Speaker 4: the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the

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Speaker 4: fly and think of a new game. Of course, we're

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Speaker 4: betting the Saints here like they're getting They just got

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Speaker 4: blown out in prime.

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Speaker 3: Time, humiliated historically.

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Speaker 4: Historically, you bet that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that

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Speaker 4: they're playing JV players, it doesn't matter who their quarterback is,

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Speaker 4: they're at home, they're as as a dog. They just

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Speaker 4: got blown out. Every sort of trend says you play

365
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Speaker 4: that team. On the other side, the Raiders. Look, they

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Speaker 4: beat up on the Jags, but let's not be fooled.

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Speaker 4: They had a ten game losing streak and the Jags

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Speaker 4: kept turning the ball over.

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Speaker 3: So I wouldn't be too.

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Speaker 4: Anxious to bet on the Raiders as road favorites in

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Speaker 4: this spot.

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Speaker 3: Give me the Saints.

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Speaker 4: Now, I gotta scramble and think of what my other

374
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Speaker 4: game I'm going to try to get you to bed

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Speaker 4: is well.

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Speaker 1: I like the Falcons plus floor the Commanders, and the

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Speaker 1: reason I like it is, I mean, Jaden Daniels was

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Speaker 1: a hero at the end, but he just tried to

379
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Speaker 1: give that thing away early. I think Michael Pennix is

380
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Speaker 1: really good. I think they have a good offensive line

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Speaker 1: will hold the Commander's pass rush off four points is

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Speaker 1: a lot. I do not I think the Falcons are

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Speaker 1: gonna be competitive. Listen, they're playing for a division title,

384
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Speaker 1: all right. This is a big game for them. So

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Speaker 1: this is not like the Commander and the Commanders aren't

386
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Speaker 1: gonna get home field advantage. The Falcons can win home

387
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 1: field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It just

388
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:43,120
Speaker 1: seems to me, again, it wasn't that they just beat

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Speaker 1: the Giants. It's not just that, but Pennix's accuracy. Greg

390
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Speaker 1: Cosell talked about it this week. This this kid has

391
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Speaker 1: an arm. I don't care if it's windy. I like

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Speaker 1: the Falcons plus four sharper square, totally sharp.

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Speaker 4: Wise, guys, bet this down from four and a half too,

394
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 4: or I'd be surprised if it isn't a three and

395
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 4: a half or lower by the game. A lot of

396
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Speaker 4: the reasons you just indicated, Michael Pennix had a lot

397
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Speaker 4: of fans into the draft, A lot of professional betters

398
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Speaker 4: don't forget.

399
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Speaker 3: The draft has become a huge betting event.

400
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 4: Professional betters are digging into game film from college the

401
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 4: same way they're digging into game film on a week

402
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 4: to week basis now because there's a money making opportunity.

403
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Speaker 3: There's a market, right. Michael Penix is one of those guys.

404
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 4: Not dissimilar from Jayden Daniels, not dissimilar from bow Knicks,

405
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 4: not that dissimilar from Caleb Williams.

406
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 3: A ton of film on the guy.

407
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 4: He played a lot of college football, and some of

408
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 4: the reasons why these guys who are coming in and

409
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 4: having successes because they played so many games. We saw

410
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Speaker 4: how accurate he could be. I love watching Penicks throw

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00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 4: like I think his ball is so pretty. And also

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Speaker 4: I don't think in a primetime game he is someone

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Speaker 4: who would be cowed by the lights the way other

414
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 4: rookies might. He's played in massive games. Talk about college

415
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 4: football National Championship. That's a big game. I don't care

416
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 4: if it's in college like that has huge steaks. So

417
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 4: he's been in spots. He's older.

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Speaker 3: I like it too.

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Speaker 1: A couple of favorites that jump out to me. The

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Speaker 1: Bills slip walked, sleepwalk through their win over New England,

421
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 1: so you get those when you're a dominant team. The

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00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 1: Jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now

423
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 1: you've got Aaron Rodgers is not sure he's coming back.

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Speaker 1: There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last

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Speaker 1: six to eight weeks. But I think Buffalo is a

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Speaker 1: significantly better team. Jetstro a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson

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00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 1: is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here.

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00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 1: I think Buffalo also watched the Ravens and the chief

429
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: Yief's flex and play brilliantly. As favorites, there's a separation.

430
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,479
Speaker 1: You know, I don't like big favorites. I'm gonna take

431
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 1: Buffalo minus eight and a half off all horrible winning

432
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 1: performance Sharper square.

433
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 3: So it's a little square.

434
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 4: The numbers moved, you know, it's moved in the Jets direction.

435
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 4: I can't fault you if you want to do this.

436
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 4: Everything you just said is are all the reasons why

437
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 4: I was on the Bills last week.

438
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 3: I thought they'd want to flex.

439
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 4: I thought they'd want to respond to Lamar Jackson throwing

440
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 4: five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back

441
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 4: in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that MVP.

442
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 4: It didn't happen right Drake may was running, he was

443
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 4: throwing accurately. Obviously different scenario, I lean into the Bills again.

444
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 4: To be honest, I feel like everything you just said

445
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 4: about the Jets is true, which is why I would

446
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 4: want to back the Bills. Aaron Rodgers had been healthy

447
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 4: for the past three weeks. He's now got a minor

448
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,880
Speaker 4: MCL issue on his knee. This team is a train wreck.

449
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 4: I was all over the Jets last week. Whise guys

450
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 4: were in the Jets last week. You cannot count in

451
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:16,239
Speaker 4: the Jets because the decision making of jeff Olbrick is

452
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 4: so bad. He does not seem to understand the basic

453
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 4: constructs of when to go fourth and fourth down, situational

454
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 4: play clock management. If the Jets kick a field goal,

455
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 4: I'm fourth and four from the Rams twelve yard line.

456
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 4: Last week, they're up twelve to six, and that's the ballgame,

457
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 4: Like the Rams were not doing anything. Instead, he twice

458
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,919
Speaker 4: went fourth and fourth downs and that's basically when the

459
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 4: Rams won the game. So it's hard to bet on

460
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 4: the Jets because jeff Elbrick is just so bad at.

461
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 1: This one more NFL game, This line's moved back and forth.

462
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 1: Panthers getting seven and a half division game at the

463
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,080
Speaker 1: Bucks Tampa is the better team. But all make the

464
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 1: argument in the last month, Bryce Young is playing like

465
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 1: a number one pick and c. J. Stroud's playing like

466
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: a number two pick. The Panthers can move the ball.

467
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 1: They've got a good coach. They can move the ball.

468
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 1: Tampa's dinged up. I think they'll win, but division game

469
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: a hot quarterback, it kind of feels like an easy one.

470
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 4: Sharper square, totally sharp. I haven't understood this line all week.

471
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 4: The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and

472
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 4: a half, it went down to eight. Now it's at

473
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 4: seven and a half because money has been coming under

474
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 4: the Panthers. I think you're good until seven. You know,

475
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 4: at seven you just sort of leave it alone. You

476
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 4: want to get the hook off of that key number.

477
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 4: A lot of games end on seven. That's when we

478
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 4: talk about key numbers three, seven, those are the biggest ones.

479
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 4: What's interesting about this game is a month ago they

480
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 4: played it in Carolina, Tampa was a six and a

481
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 4: half point favorite on the road, one in overtime because

482
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 4: Tuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal.

483
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 3: Range for the Bucks.

484
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:08,919
Speaker 4: Right, So now you take this game to Tampa, Tampa

485
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:10,959
Speaker 4: is only a point and a half better. When the

486
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 4: line came out went from six and a half to eight, right,

487
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 4: Normally home field is three points. What that's telling you

488
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 4: is two things. One, bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers.

489
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 4: They started off one and seven against the spread. Bryce

490
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 4: Young was terrible. Professional betters had been betting, betting betting

491
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 4: the Panthers. I'm sure listeners remember early in the year.

492
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 4: I was all over the Panthers. Bryce Young two point

493
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 4: zero is everything you just said. He's rolling out of

494
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:40,479
Speaker 4: the pocket using his legs, incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket,

495
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 4: taking really hard hits. He's been great. He's been a

496
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 4: really good quarterback, much better than CJ. Stroud, Like you said,

497
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 4: so bookmakers have adjusted to that. To me, eight was

498
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 4: still a little too high. Wise, guys agree, you're sharp.

499
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: Take the Panthers a college football line that jumps out

500
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: to me. I don't believe you can win a national

501
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 1: championship with a bad defense. That's why I think Texas

502
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: and Ohio State probably play for the Natty, and I

503
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at least in

504
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 1: play to play for the national championship. Oregon's defense is bad.

505
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: Boise State ran on it, Ohio State did whatever they

506
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 1: wanted on it. Penn State did whatever they wanted against

507
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 1: the Ducks. I'm trying to forget the Tennessee game because

508
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 1: it was in Columbus, but Ohio State has played in

509
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 1: the Rose Bowl before. Whether it's not a factor. I

510
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: said before the season, Oregon's going to beat Ohio State

511
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in the rematch.

512
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: It's under a field goal. I'd take the Buckeye sharper square.

513
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 3: Yeah.

514
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 4: Look, that's the sharp side right now, right, and that's

515
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 4: where the money is. And when you see money, and

516
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 4: sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually

517
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 4: get betty percentages and money percentages. Money right now is

518
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 4: on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State,

519
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 4: which locks to Michigan lost to Oregon, has had a

520
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 4: lot of drama, questions about Ryan Day, the fact they

521
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 4: beat up Tennessee the way they did. Oregon has been

522
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 4: out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a

523
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 4: lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said,

524
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 4: So that's the way the money has been going in

525
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 4: this game. Look, it's fascinating, it's rare.

526
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 1: You're going to.

527
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 4: Get the second ranked, third ranked whatever it is team

528
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 4: to be the favorite of the number one ranked team.

529
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 4: But that's the spot we're in because of everything you

530
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 4: just said.

531
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 1: All right, there's a game I want you to kind

532
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both

533
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The

534
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 1: Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six,

535
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 1: it's now six and a half. Arizona doesn't travel well,

536
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: so from time to time the Rams can feel like

537
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 1: a road team at home. This won't be one of

538
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: these times. I get the better quarterback, the better coach.

539
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're

540
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 1: better than the line. That Jets game was built for

541
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: them to lose early game, cold weather, good defense, and

542
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 1: they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like it's

543
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: six to six and a half. I have to bet

544
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: the Rams. I know it's divisional sharper square if I

545
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: like the Rams.

546
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 4: Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams. But

547
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 4: this is sort of the nuance of the betting business

548
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 4: is getting the best of the number. This game on

549
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 4: Sunday night opened Rams at minus four, So I'll do

550
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 4: the favorites with professional better Simon Hunter on Sunday night

551
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 4: on the Volume podcast network. We'll do it go on

552
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 4: air at seven thirty.

553
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: We'll do it live. We're off air before the Sunday

554
00:30:58,200 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 3: night game.

555
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 4: The timing is relevant here because we will preview the

556
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 4: games that we like the most first glance, you know,

557
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 4: gut instinct, not having done any research for the following week.

558
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 4: This game stood out immediately. We started talking about the

559
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 4: Rams minus four. Why is this number?

560
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 3: Solow?

561
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 4: The Rams just got out of a trap game against

562
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 4: the Jets, and they won. The week before, they got lucky,

563
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 4: the Niners dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners

564
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 4: in a monsoon. Now they're going home, chance to clinch

565
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 4: the division against a team that is down. James Connor injured.

566
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 4: We saw him practicing but still limping. Offensive linemen injured.

567
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 4: Not a very good defense. A coach who doesn't know

568
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 4: how to keep his team up yet the way they

569
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 4: say Sean McVay would, or even Mike McCarthy did with

570
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 4: the Cowboys against the Bucks. The number during that show

571
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 4: went from four to four and a half to five

572
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 4: to five and a half. Thirty minutes, it moved a

573
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 4: point and a half. By Monday morning it was six.

574
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 4: And so when you're talking about why isn't it sharp

575
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,719
Speaker 4: to bet the Rams now, because the wise guy's been

576
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 4: betting it since it was at four, four and a half, five,

577
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 4: five and a half, and a little bit at six

578
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 4: until it got to six and a half. It got

579
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 4: to seven, and wise guys started betting the Cardinals at seven.

580
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 3: Again, the Rams are the right side, but if.

581
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 4: You want to win as a better long term then

582
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 4: you have to have enough discipline to choose the best

583
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 4: of the number and then walk away. If you don't

584
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 4: feel like you're getting it. You can still bet the

585
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 4: Rams at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning,

586
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 4: but it's not going to be a sharp side at

587
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 4: six and a half. All right.

588
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,719
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you I've had a lousy year betting,

589
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 1: but so far I've got seven of eight division winners.

590
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 1: I picked a surprise playoff team every year. It was

591
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders. I pick a team that will double

592
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: the Vegas win told it was the Denver Broncos. I

593
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 1: said this on the air today on TV on FS one.

594
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 1: There's the old saying with kids, the days are long,

595
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: but the years fly by, and I feel like with

596
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 1: the NFL week to week it's crazy, but over the

597
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had

598
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 1: a terrible year betting because I tend to take underdogs

599
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 1: and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites,

600
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 1: but a lot of favorites. Of one is I'm trying

601
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 1: to think. I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars badly,

602
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 1: but I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said

603
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 1: to you, give me your width and the one you'll

604
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 1: plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year.

605
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 4: Oh, it's It's interesting. The Width started as the Panthers,

606
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 4: just because I loved him. I just thought this team,

607
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 4: this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line. More than anything,

608
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 4: I just thought they were going to be much much better.

609
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 4: It ended up being a whit because they started off

610
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 4: so badly and I lost so much on them early

611
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 4: in the year. I'll take a little bit credit that

612
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,359
Speaker 4: they got better, and so I'm glad about that.

613
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 3: To me, the.

614
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 4: One I'm most proud of is the Chargers. I love

615
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 4: Jim Harbaugh and we didn't even talk about that game.

616
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 4: I think he's a football savant, and I think that

617
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 4: what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason

618
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 4: why his teams turn around so quickly no matter the

619
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 4: talent level. He knows the rules, he knows strategy, he

620
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 4: knows clock management so well. What he did at the

621
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 4: end of that first half against Sean Payton, who's a

622
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 4: brilliant coach, was a masterclass.

623
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 3: Right.

624
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 4: He takes the time out so they have to punt.

625
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:56,720
Speaker 4: The punk leads to the roughing the returner, the personal

626
00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 4: file that leads to the free kick leads to the

627
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,760
Speaker 4: Chargers having momentum and they win that game going away.

628
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 4: That's good decision making, and you don't see That's what

629
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 4: you don't see from Jeff Albrook. It's what you're not

630
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 4: seeing from Jared Mayo, like you see the difference there.

631
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 4: So to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because

632
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 4: I thought they'd be good this year and I played

633
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 4: it that way. By the way, I'll also tell you

634
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 4: that the bet that I always love the most, which

635
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 4: I'm still in play for, I always do sort of

636
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 4: a round robin on the teams that are at twelve

637
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 4: to one or shorter to win the Super Bowl, and

638
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 4: I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups because you

639
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 4: can usually get those at like between twenty and thirty

640
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 4: five to one. So you bet the Chiefs and the Allions,

641
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,760
Speaker 4: you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the

642
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 4: Ravens and the Lions, you bet the Ravens and the Eagles,

643
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 4: and you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera,

644
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 4: et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals.

645
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,040
Speaker 4: I'm alive with that if they made the playoffs. So

646
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 4: I always like that bet and feel good now that

647
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 4: the Chiefs and the Ravens at least are two of

648
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 4: the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning

649
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 4: of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions,

650
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,240
Speaker 4: and I feel good that those matchups are still in play.

651
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: Chargers minus four at New England. As long as we're

652
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 1: talking about Harbaugh tend to like teams favored. JK. Dobbins

653
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 1: should play Gus Edwards out which side of a leen? Oh?

654
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 3: I totally lean Chargers.

655
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 4: And this is a walking into a hornet's nest. Like

656
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 4: in any other year, you mentioned the favorites, right in

657
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 4: any other year, We're playing the Patriots here we're playing

658
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:46,399
Speaker 4: a team that's out of it at home more than

659
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 4: a field goal underdog, a team traveling that's fighting to

660
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 4: make the playoffs. Every trend will tell you against the

661
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 4: spread in this scenario, the underdog is the right play.

662
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 4: But for what we just talked about, I think Harbaugh's

663
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 4: a brilliant coach. I think that teams are making more

664
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 4: aggressive decisions, so they're scoring more points.

665
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 3: I think that the fact.

666
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 4: That the most teams are starting field position at the

667
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 4: thirty yard line is getting them closer to scoring in

668
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 4: the other side of the field and making them more

669
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:23,439
Speaker 4: comfortable on fourth and four from the forty going forward

670
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 4: instead of kicking a field goal.

671
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 3: And so I think that's one of the reasons.

672
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 4: Why we're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and

673
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 4: favorites win is there's more opportunity for them to score

674
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 4: at a higher rate in bigger chunks, and it's impacting betting,

675
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 4: Like betters are not having a great year. You know,

676
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 4: favorites have gone seventy one percent straight up this year,

677
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 4: just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since

678
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 4: two thy thirteen teams getting over sixty percent at the spread.

679
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,360
Speaker 4: So we talk about fading the public. We want to

680
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 4: be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting

681
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 4: over sixty percent of the spread, covering fifty six percent

682
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 4: this year against the spread, home underdogs forty three percent

683
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 4: against the spread this year. That'll be the third least

684
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 4: profitable season since nineteen ninety. So for people like you,

685
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 4: people like me, I want to fade the public. I

686
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 4: want to bet home underdogs. That's usually where the value is.

687
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 4: It's been a rough go of it.

688
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 1: Man Chad Melman, co host of The Favorites. Good luck, Buddy,

689
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: good luck to all of us. The volume