WEBVTT - Meme Stock Fever Is Spreading Like It’s 2021 With Kohl's Soaring

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Weekdaily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay

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<v Speaker 1>ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping

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<v Speaker 1>today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news

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<v Speaker 1>as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it does kind of feel like twenty twenty one,

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<v Speaker 2>at least some vibes. With memestocks and Crypto back in

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<v Speaker 2>the spotlight. Cole Shares more than doubled amid an influx

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<v Speaker 2>of mentions by retail traders on social media, with the

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<v Speaker 2>stock price soaring as much as one hundred and five

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<v Speaker 2>percent when the equity market opened today, and then there's

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<v Speaker 2>Open Door Technologies. It jumped as much as one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and twenty percent yesterday. It extended its gravity defying rally

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<v Speaker 2>from last week. Investors continue to pile into the stock

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<v Speaker 2>that has found a sudden fandom among retail traders and

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<v Speaker 2>social media platforms.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, this is when that is certainly on our radar.

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<v Speaker 3>One of the reasons Open Door has been moving is

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<v Speaker 3>due to Eric Jackson He's the founder of Toronto based

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<v Speaker 3>hedge fund AMJ Capitol. He made a series of posts

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<v Speaker 3>on X encouraging buying, and Eric joins us from Toronto

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<v Speaker 3>on this Tuesday. Eric, good to have you here with us.

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<v Speaker 3>Do you, first of all, take issue with this being

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<v Speaker 3>open Door a meme stock?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 5>I think Carol that all the meme stocks from twenty

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<v Speaker 5>twenty one were dumb businesses. I couldn't understand it at

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<v Speaker 5>the time why retail traders were getting so wrapped up

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<v Speaker 5>in AMC, GME, and BlackBerry. I think those were the

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<v Speaker 5>big three, Like those are all like walking dead businesses.

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<v Speaker 5>So when I got into open Door and then I

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<v Speaker 5>first started tweeting about it last Monday, it's hard to believe.

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<v Speaker 5>It feels like a cent where you ago like two

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<v Speaker 5>forty five. Like I got into it because this is

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<v Speaker 5>a real business and it's got a real platform that

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<v Speaker 5>it's built, and it's definitely fallen on hard times. That's

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<v Speaker 5>why the stocks down like ninety nine percent or whatever

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<v Speaker 5>it is from its all time highs. But I just

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<v Speaker 5>think that the market got overly pessimistic about it. And

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<v Speaker 5>I've seen this movie before with Carvana, Like that's one

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<v Speaker 5>of the one of my like you know, greatest.

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<v Speaker 4>Heads on my wall. I guess you know from the

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<v Speaker 4>past is.

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<v Speaker 5>That I got into Carvana early, not at three dollars

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<v Speaker 5>and fifty cents, but at fifteen dollars, and today it's

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<v Speaker 5>like close to four hundred. And I just see so

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<v Speaker 5>many similarities between these two businesses, and all, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>people just get overly a prisoner of the moment, pessimistic

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<v Speaker 5>about these companies, and everyone's negative Nelly, and everyone loves

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<v Speaker 5>to dance on the grave and say that these companies are.

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<v Speaker 4>Circling the drain.

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<v Speaker 5>Nobody would have believed that, you know, at three fifty

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<v Speaker 5>that Carbona was going back to four hundred. Nobody now

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<v Speaker 5>that at you know, it was seventy cents last Monday.

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<v Speaker 5>Now it's whatever it is three bucks today, that this

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<v Speaker 5>thing is I think going to eighty two bucks.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, okay, so let's talk about that. It's two dollars

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<v Speaker 2>and eighty cents right now, down about twelve thirteen percent

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<v Speaker 2>as we speak, just on the day today, you have

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<v Speaker 2>a price target of eighty two dollars.

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<v Speaker 6>That's pretty wild.

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<v Speaker 2>Make your case to us on why you see it

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<v Speaker 2>moving that high.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I mean, I'll be even wilder, tim, I think

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<v Speaker 5>today it should be trading forty bucks. You know, it's

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<v Speaker 5>it's you know, like basically that if you look at

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<v Speaker 5>go back and look at Carvana. Okay, use this as

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<v Speaker 5>a comparison to open Door. Both of these companies they're

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<v Speaker 5>trying to e commerce SAFFI some niche that hasn't been

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<v Speaker 5>e commerce suffied before. For Carvana, it was buying and

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<v Speaker 5>selling use cars. For open doors, buying and selling homes.

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<v Speaker 5>It's a huge business obviously in both cases, a national

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<v Speaker 5>business where just having like one or two or three

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<v Speaker 5>percent market share nationally, you know, is talking billions and

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<v Speaker 5>billions of dollars and power because it's all so fragmented today, uh,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, with the dealers in the car industry and

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<v Speaker 5>with the agents you know, in the real estate industry.

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<v Speaker 5>And basically you need a lot of debt to run

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<v Speaker 5>both of these businesses.

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<v Speaker 4>And so the problem that both of these.

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<v Speaker 5>Businesses came you know, came upon is that although they

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<v Speaker 5>were flying high in the COVID you know, pre COVID

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<v Speaker 5>and then uh briefly post COVID era, when interest rates

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<v Speaker 5>were low, when Powell started raising rates, Uh, suddenly investors

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<v Speaker 5>got nervous, and these stocks crashed, and and the assumption

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<v Speaker 5>was that it's they're just gonna they're going to go under,

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<v Speaker 5>they're going to file for bankruptcy. So their price as

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<v Speaker 5>if they're going to go bankrupt. And I don't believe

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<v Speaker 5>that's true.

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<v Speaker 4>Uh, Carvana.

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<v Speaker 6>You know.

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<v Speaker 5>In fact, I was on a podcast in June of

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<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty two with Josh Brown and Michael Back where

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<v Speaker 5>I call both like I said, both would turn around

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<v Speaker 5>Carvanah did and h open Door did it it was

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<v Speaker 5>dead wrong, Like it took a lot longer for them

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<v Speaker 5>to get to the point where they're about to turn profitable.

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<v Speaker 5>But they are about to turn profitable.

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<v Speaker 3>So for open Door, do you expect to inject and

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<v Speaker 3>invest more money into it and then take a profit

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<v Speaker 3>or because it sounds like you've done the research, looked

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<v Speaker 3>at the business, maybe talk to the company that this

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<v Speaker 3>is more of a long term buy and hold strategy

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<v Speaker 3>for you.

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<v Speaker 4>Which is it?

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I've been fortunate to be early on a bunch

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<v Speaker 5>of companies, like I was like really early on Ali

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<v Speaker 5>Baba even you know back in twenty nine and ten,

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<v Speaker 5>when it was still a private company, it was value

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<v Speaker 5>to ten billion. I thought it was going to go

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<v Speaker 5>up Carvana, you know some other ones. Like what I've

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<v Speaker 5>learned Carol is that you know, like it's always hard

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<v Speaker 5>to not avoid the temptation of firing up the terminal

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<v Speaker 5>or turning on business TV and getting emotional about the

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<v Speaker 5>macro headlines of the day and get shaken out of

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<v Speaker 5>these positions. And sometimes when you know, these these companies

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<v Speaker 5>are pretty rare, you know that can truly hundred bag

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<v Speaker 5>or hundred acts, right, but like, you know, it's so

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<v Speaker 5>easy to get shaken out of these positions or like

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<v Speaker 5>in the case of Carvana, like I got like I said,

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<v Speaker 5>I got into it at fifteen, I would say I

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<v Speaker 5>got out of it. You know, the bulk of my

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<v Speaker 5>position in around like probably one thirty one forty one

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<v Speaker 5>fifty somewhere in there. And I'm thinking, oh, I'm so smart.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean ten x my money. Pat myself on the

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<v Speaker 5>back here, you know, and I know this company really well.

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<v Speaker 5>I still was optimistic about Carvana, and still i'm today.

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<v Speaker 4>But I thought, like, I'm just going to trade it,

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<v Speaker 4>trade in and out.

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<v Speaker 5>And you know the truth is, you don't make as

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<v Speaker 5>much money as is if you do nothing and just

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<v Speaker 5>let it sit there. So I'm not like jumping into

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<v Speaker 5>add more, Carol, but you know, because I want to

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<v Speaker 5>see how the things play out. But I you know,

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<v Speaker 5>I'm going to try to avoid that temptation and just

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<v Speaker 5>sit and do nothing.

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<v Speaker 3>How much eighty can you give us an idea? How

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<v Speaker 3>much you have put into it? And is it all

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<v Speaker 3>your money? Is it investor money?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I run a fund, Carol, it's a it's a

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<v Speaker 4>it's a small fund.

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<v Speaker 5>Frank with you guys, It's like I had a huge

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<v Speaker 5>I had a huge billionaire that basically it was like

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<v Speaker 5>a cornerstone investor for me in twenty sixteen seventeen when

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<v Speaker 5>I started EMJ Capital. And so I like the way

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<v Speaker 5>you think, Eric, you know, you look at companies differently.

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<v Speaker 5>You find these like little hidden jewel companies. How about

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<v Speaker 5>I give you some money to manage? And it did

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<v Speaker 5>and did great, like it was kind of like a

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<v Speaker 5>Kathy Wood type arc, like twenty seventeen up to you know,

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<v Speaker 5>probably February twenty twenty one was amazing, shot the lights out,

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<v Speaker 5>and then twenty one and twenty two I got crushed

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<v Speaker 5>and I didn't diversify my.

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<v Speaker 4>What do you call it?

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<v Speaker 5>Customer base you know, and so like ninety nine point

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<v Speaker 5>five percent of the capital and the fund was this

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<v Speaker 5>billionaire and he took it out, and which was this

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<v Speaker 5>is right, and you know's so friendly with him. But

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<v Speaker 5>I was sort of like left scrambling and trying to

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<v Speaker 5>figure out what to do, and so kept the lights on.

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<v Speaker 5>Pivoted to think building a team to build AI models,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, but you know have been it's been hit

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<v Speaker 5>and miss the last few years. And then it was

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<v Speaker 5>only like probably you know, three months ago that I

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<v Speaker 5>realized like, hey, you know we're doing you know, I

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<v Speaker 5>keep finding these companies.

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<v Speaker 4>Why don't we just sort of go all in on that.

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<v Speaker 5>Let's let's get the aim Allels totally focused on finding

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<v Speaker 5>these hundred baggers before the fact. So the remaining capital

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<v Speaker 5>we have, which a few million we put in, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>obviously we didn't put it all into open Door or anything.

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<v Speaker 4>We have other positions. There's sort of like five key

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<v Speaker 4>positions that.

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<v Speaker 5>I have right now, iron cipher mining, BTQ technologies, and ethereum.

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<v Speaker 6>Those are the kind of the yeah big five.

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<v Speaker 5>Fused on and uh, you know, we'll see where we go.

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<v Speaker 5>And you know, all I got is my reputation guys you.

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<v Speaker 3>Know right, no, no, no, we get now.

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<v Speaker 5>I've got I've got I've got you know, I've got

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<v Speaker 5>people you know whatever calling up or emailing and saying,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, this is great.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, we want to get behind you, so we'll

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<v Speaker 4>see where it goes.

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<v Speaker 2>It seems like a lot of folks on social media,

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of folks are on social media are getting

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<v Speaker 2>behind you. Have you talked to Tamath poly Hapatilla at

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<v Speaker 2>all about this? He is, you know, a had famous

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<v Speaker 2>involvement with open Door back when it went public.

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<v Speaker 5>I haven't talked with him. I email, but I texted

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<v Speaker 5>it or not text, I tweeted him. I tweeted him

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<v Speaker 5>when you know, when this thing got started last week,

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<v Speaker 5>because obviously I think it would be a tremendous a

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<v Speaker 5>redemption arc.

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<v Speaker 4>For Chamoth to come back into this stock.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't think he has anything to be ashamed of

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<v Speaker 5>it being involved with with open Door to begin with,

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<v Speaker 5>or any of the co founder like Keith or Boy

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<v Speaker 5>is a guy who kind of you know, was wrote

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<v Speaker 5>the business plan originally. I think he's like one of

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<v Speaker 5>the smartest guys out there. Everybody was associated with this

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<v Speaker 5>company was you know, it was it was a good company.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, it's just a ma you know, the Macro

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<v Speaker 5>changed and the rates rose and stuff, and so I

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<v Speaker 5>don't think I don't think Tremoth has anything to be

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<v Speaker 5>ashamed of. But I think it would be amazing if

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<v Speaker 5>he came back in on the ride to eighty two,

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<v Speaker 5>which would double the all time highs which is previously

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<v Speaker 5>thirty nine bucks.

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<v Speaker 2>Eric, forgive me for being blunt about this question, but

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<v Speaker 2>if you look at your Twitter feed, there's just a

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<v Speaker 2>it's like all open door. I mean, I had trouble.

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<v Speaker 2>You're spending a lot of time I'm retweeting and interacting

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<v Speaker 2>with folks on there, and I understand that's part of

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<v Speaker 2>the game these days, but maybe a critic could see

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<v Speaker 2>that and say, you're really trying to just pump this

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<v Speaker 2>stock up at this point, defend it on its fundamentals,

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<v Speaker 2>and convince people that this is not, you know, for

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<v Speaker 2>lack of a better term, pumping it up and then selling.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't know what to tell you, guys.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, unfollow me, tim if I'm bugging you, mute

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<v Speaker 5>in or block me.

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<v Speaker 4>And I'd say that to anybody else.

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<v Speaker 5>I think anybody who knows me knows I'm not a

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<v Speaker 5>pumper or whatever I have been.

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<v Speaker 4>Obviously, I've been inundated, called a pump and dumper, a grifter.

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<v Speaker 4>Jim Kramer said this was a parlay yesterday. I don't

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<v Speaker 4>know what that means.

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<v Speaker 5>You could explain it to me, you know whatever I mean.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, people are you know, they're not familiar with

0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:53.480
<v Speaker 5>the Open Door story. So whatever they want to sit

0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:58.040
<v Speaker 5>back behind their anonymous Twitter feeds and cast dis versions.

0:10:58.040 --> 0:10:58.760
<v Speaker 4>I don't care.

0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:01.320
<v Speaker 5>I'm here to make I don't have I got to

0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:03.720
<v Speaker 5>feed my family. I got to grow this business. I

0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:06.600
<v Speaker 5>got to do well for my investors. And if people

0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:09.520
<v Speaker 5>want to take shots whatever, you know, you know, I

0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.080
<v Speaker 5>just don't have time for it. I really love the

0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:15.160
<v Speaker 5>community that we've built. I mean, it's it's amazing. This morning,

0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:18.520
<v Speaker 5>I was retweeting all these people from you know, you

0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:23.800
<v Speaker 5>name it, Turkey, Korea, Japan and Africa, Nigeria, Brazil, I mean,

0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:27.360
<v Speaker 5>everyone around the world, and they're all in on Open Door.

0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:29.000
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, you know, I don't know.

0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:30.400
<v Speaker 4>That it's going at eighty two. I don't know. I

0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:30.680
<v Speaker 4>don't know.

0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:32.920
<v Speaker 5>Crystal Ball, I was, you know, I don't know, you know,

0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:35.720
<v Speaker 5>I might be wrong. I was wrong for many many

0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:37.800
<v Speaker 5>years about open door. But I don't think I'm wrong

0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:40.560
<v Speaker 5>right now. I think now's the time this thing is

0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:43.040
<v Speaker 5>turning and you can either get in make a lot

0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:46.120
<v Speaker 5>of money or not. And I got people already telling

0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:48.560
<v Speaker 5>me how much money they've made and it's life changing

0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:50.160
<v Speaker 5>and all this that's fantastic.

0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:52.160
<v Speaker 4>I mean, it doesn't doesn't help me, but it not

0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:55.079
<v Speaker 4>be for that. He was a community Eric, you did sea,

0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:55.920
<v Speaker 4>we learned together.

0:11:56.200 --> 0:12:00.200
<v Speaker 3>No, I hear you. You said you're hoping to hold

0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:02.040
<v Speaker 3>on to it, like that's your plan. But I mean

0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:06.760
<v Speaker 3>if all of a sudden the stock took a downturn,

0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:09.000
<v Speaker 3>I mean it's a two dollars eighty percent stock, so

0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:11.240
<v Speaker 3>I'm not quite sure what kind of downturn. But is

0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:13.640
<v Speaker 3>there something that you would quickly change your thoughts or

0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:15.839
<v Speaker 3>you're going to ride it even if it rides down

0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:16.240
<v Speaker 3>a lot.

0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:20.120
<v Speaker 4>I can't say I'm going to ride it forever, Carol.

0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:23.400
<v Speaker 3>I mean not foreverbody. I mean, if it went down

0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:25.839
<v Speaker 3>fifty percent, would you stay with it?

0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:29.640
<v Speaker 4>I think it's less about the percentage drop.

0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.000
<v Speaker 5>I mean there's obviously going to be volatility, especially in

0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:34.200
<v Speaker 5>the early days of these of these kinds of names

0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:36.720
<v Speaker 5>and you know, they report rings in a couple of weeks,

0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.600
<v Speaker 5>so you know, if it's a terrible report, I mean

0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:42.000
<v Speaker 5>the thing would you know, would would have a negative

0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:44.760
<v Speaker 5>reaction to the to the downside and then reverse to

0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:46.160
<v Speaker 5>the upside if it was good news.

0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:48.080
<v Speaker 4>I think there it is going to be profitable, and I.

0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:49.960
<v Speaker 5>Think it's going to be the start of a string

0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:51.319
<v Speaker 5>of profitable quarters, which is what.

0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 4>Needs to happen for this thing to get up to

0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:53.200
<v Speaker 4>eighty two.

0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:57.520
<v Speaker 5>But you know, one thing that's different about oupen Doors,

0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:00.199
<v Speaker 5>like there is more diverse.

0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:01.240
<v Speaker 4>Opinion about management.

0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:05.040
<v Speaker 5>I think with Carvana, Like obviously everybody on Twitter and

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:07.320
<v Speaker 5>Wall Street hated it, but if you talk to people

0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:09.240
<v Speaker 5>that actually knew the business, and I think people really

0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:12.360
<v Speaker 5>admired the CEO, Ernie Garcia and the management team, and

0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:16.920
<v Speaker 5>they those guys bought a lot of stock when Carvana

0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.400
<v Speaker 5>was low, right before it bottomed. Nobody's done that here

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.280
<v Speaker 5>at open Door, which is the norm for most of

0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:24.480
<v Speaker 5>these I mean most times these insiders, you know, they

0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:25.080
<v Speaker 5>just don't.

0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:27.440
<v Speaker 4>Brian Armstrong from Coinbase, you never bought a share from

0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:29.280
<v Speaker 4>the time he went public at four hundred down to

0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:33.440
<v Speaker 4>thirty eight back up again. Yeah, sales zone by house

0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:34.199
<v Speaker 4>in La.

0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:37.440
<v Speaker 5>So, but there's more controversy about the management here at

0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 5>Open Door TEMP. Not to cut you off, you know,

0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:42.920
<v Speaker 5>some people think Carrie Wheeler, who's the CEO, is great

0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:46.320
<v Speaker 5>and some people don't. And so if I discovered three

0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:48.840
<v Speaker 5>months from now, the gosh, I don't know about her.

0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.800
<v Speaker 5>I mean, you know, one thing I might think about

0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.199
<v Speaker 5>is like, what's the chance of an activist coming in here?

0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:56.400
<v Speaker 5>Which I think is very high, So that might keep

0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.960
<v Speaker 5>me in. But if I concluded, like the management's terrible,

0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:02.080
<v Speaker 5>I can't standard anymore, then.

0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:04.800
<v Speaker 4>Obviously I have to exit. I don't think that's going

0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:05.360
<v Speaker 4>to be the case.

0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:09.200
<v Speaker 2>Eric, Before we let you go, other stocks that you

0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:11.960
<v Speaker 2>are buying right now that you're holding right now, what

0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:16.240
<v Speaker 2>are people missing when? What are you getting earlier today?

0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:19.360
<v Speaker 4>Tim hot off the presses. I tweeted this out already,

0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:19.680
<v Speaker 4>So this.

0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:25.120
<v Speaker 5>Is I bought some iron ir e N and Cipher CifR.

0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:28.080
<v Speaker 5>Both of those are bitcoin miners, make a lot of

0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:31.240
<v Speaker 5>money from that, but they're more excitingly there.

0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.560
<v Speaker 4>They've moved. They're kind of like a Core Scientific and

0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:34.480
<v Speaker 4>just you know Core.

0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:37.080
<v Speaker 5>We've bought Core Scientific recently, but it was kind of

0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.120
<v Speaker 5>a lousy price for core. Scientific Iron and Cipher are

0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:44.080
<v Speaker 5>way bigger, have way more kind of energized gigawatts that

0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.960
<v Speaker 5>are coming online in the next year that somebody like

0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:49.440
<v Speaker 5>an Oracle or a Meta or you know, Google has

0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:51.320
<v Speaker 5>to do a deal with. So I like those, and

0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:55.960
<v Speaker 5>I like BTQ Technologies. BTQQF is a ticker. It's still

0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.080
<v Speaker 5>an no TC ticker. I bought it a twenty one

0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:01.880
<v Speaker 5>cents in December with like five bucks, so it's been

0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.080
<v Speaker 5>a thirty bagger for me so far. But I think

0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:06.840
<v Speaker 5>it's gonna meet the criteria and be hundred bagger when

0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:07.800
<v Speaker 5>it all said and done.

0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:10.600
<v Speaker 2>All right, always looking for the diamonds in the rough,

0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:13.960
<v Speaker 2>no matter no matter how low the prices are. Hey, Eric,

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.840
<v Speaker 2>appreciate you taking so much time with us this afternoon.

0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:18.960
<v Speaker 2>It's great to check back in with you. It's been

0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:21.240
<v Speaker 2>quite a few months, so we love it that you

0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:23.080
<v Speaker 2>took the time. Eric Jackson is the founder of the

0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:25.240
<v Speaker 2>Toronto based hedge fund E MJ.

0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:25.880
<v Speaker 6>Capitol.

0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.200
<v Speaker 2>I would never block him on Twitter. I still follow

0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:30.960
<v Speaker 2>you on Twitter. Yeah, check out his twitter feed too,

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:32.880
<v Speaker 2>because he does share a lot of what he's working

0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 2>on here as well.

0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, pretty clear I'm pretty transparent and stuff out there.

0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.960
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch

0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:43.720
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from two to five eas during

0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:47.840
<v Speaker 1>Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.600
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:53.120
<v Speaker 2>Back to a headline that you mentioned just in the

0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:56.360
<v Speaker 2>last few minutes, Carol SpaceX says warrant investors that Elon

0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:59.560
<v Speaker 2>Musk could return to politics. Musk may serve in similar

0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:02.840
<v Speaker 2>roles to his previous position as senior advisor to President

0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:05.760
<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump, and devotes significant time and energy to such roles.

0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 2>This according to documents, It's great to have back with us.

0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:11.440
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Business Week a senior reporter, Max Chafkin. Max is

0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:14.800
<v Speaker 2>the co host of the Everybody's Business in Elon Inc. Podcast,

0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 2>also the author of the Concherrion Peter Tiel in Silicon

0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:20.600
<v Speaker 2>Valley's Pursuit of Power. He's here in studio with us.

0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 4>Expect to have you back in this as much as

0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:24.480
<v Speaker 4>we love it.

0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:26.320
<v Speaker 2>I feel like you knew something here when you told

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.040
<v Speaker 2>us that you know, never say never when it comes

0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:31.360
<v Speaker 2>to Elon Musk and staying out of politics.

0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:33.640
<v Speaker 7>I mean this is one of these things, where in

0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:37.120
<v Speaker 7>any investors learning this from the risk factor statement of

0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:40.400
<v Speaker 7>the prospectus is a little bit behind the curve. It's

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.680
<v Speaker 7>been pretty obvious for about a year that Elon Musk's

0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:48.280
<v Speaker 7>political activities have a bearing on his businesses, and but this,

0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:51.280
<v Speaker 7>of course is an acknowledgment of that. And also, I

0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:54.320
<v Speaker 7>guess tim as you're kind of hinting, maybe a suggestion

0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:57.320
<v Speaker 7>that Musk has plans to re enter the four although

0:16:57.320 --> 0:16:59.400
<v Speaker 7>he's he's sort of said as much on Twitter, you know,

0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:02.680
<v Speaker 7>a week ago, and he launched the America Party, all.

0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:05.280
<v Speaker 3>Right, But does this take it to if he's putting

0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:10.920
<v Speaker 3>this language in the tender offer for SpaceX, I mean,

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.360
<v Speaker 3>does it kind of make it even more formal or official?

0:17:14.440 --> 0:17:16.119
<v Speaker 3>I mean, does it take it to another level?

0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:20.000
<v Speaker 7>I mean, we saw these risk factors. I'm less familiar

0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:23.040
<v Speaker 7>with them as they apply to private marketing fundraising, but

0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:25.960
<v Speaker 7>of course they do show up in public market fundraisings

0:17:25.960 --> 0:17:29.960
<v Speaker 7>as well, you know, on quarterly reports, annual reports. I

0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:33.320
<v Speaker 7>just had a quick peek at the last Tesla earnings

0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:36.560
<v Speaker 7>release back in April. It had two new risk factors,

0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:40.679
<v Speaker 7>one related to essentially perceptions about the stability of the

0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:44.480
<v Speaker 7>management team kind of a wordy way of saying negative

0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:47.520
<v Speaker 7>stories about our CEO and another about tariffs and.

0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:48.440
<v Speaker 4>Hosts of other things.

0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:51.080
<v Speaker 7>So, I mean, I think this is more an acknowledgment

0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:54.520
<v Speaker 7>of something that is that Musk himself has talked about,

0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:58.679
<v Speaker 7>and this is not I mean, maybe this in some ways,

0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:02.560
<v Speaker 7>I guess this is confirmation that people inside of SpaceX

0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:06.520
<v Speaker 7>are aware that Elon Musk has discussed very recently plans

0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:11.240
<v Speaker 7>to continue his political journey, and this is a reflection

0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:11.480
<v Speaker 7>of that.

0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:13.800
<v Speaker 2>But how that journey could look might be a lot

0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.640
<v Speaker 2>different than what that journey was over the last year

0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:20.400
<v Speaker 2>or so, given thus all out oh absolutely that he's

0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:22.280
<v Speaker 2>had with President Trump. Do you think it would take

0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:25.240
<v Speaker 2>the form of a new political party in supporting candidates

0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:30.000
<v Speaker 2>perhaps Democrats and Republicans who maybe want to slash the deficit.

0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:31.840
<v Speaker 4>Well, we've talked about this a lot.

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:33.720
<v Speaker 7>We've talked about this here Simon, also on the Elon

0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:36.199
<v Speaker 7>Ink podcast. I think there's a I think there are

0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:39.480
<v Speaker 7>reasons to be somewhat skeptical of a political party in

0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:43.000
<v Speaker 7>the formal sense, like another effort to start like a

0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:46.640
<v Speaker 7>reform party or some true alternative. I think the idea

0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:50.680
<v Speaker 7>of Elon Musk somehow trying to formalize this political movement,

0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:52.639
<v Speaker 7>you know, in the same way that the Tea Party

0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:56.240
<v Speaker 7>is not an actual political party, it's like a constituency

0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:59.560
<v Speaker 7>of voters. You could imagine something like that. And what

0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:02.639
<v Speaker 7>must said is, you know, or hinted at, at the

0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:07.159
<v Speaker 7>very least, is a plan to back certain candidates in

0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:09.800
<v Speaker 7>the Senate and in Congress and then try to use

0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:11.920
<v Speaker 7>that to be, you know, as a sort of point

0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:15.720
<v Speaker 7>of leverage in negotiations over over bills and so on.

0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.520
<v Speaker 7>And I think, you know, there's something to be said

0:19:18.520 --> 0:19:20.600
<v Speaker 7>for that, right if he if he were able to say,

0:19:20.720 --> 0:19:25.639
<v Speaker 7>peel a few Republican Senat or House votes away like

0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:28.199
<v Speaker 7>that would give him more leverage over Trump than he

0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:31.720
<v Speaker 7>has now. There are also reasons why this could could

0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:32.880
<v Speaker 7>backfire spectacularly.

0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.399
<v Speaker 3>All right, let's just remind everybody, as Max has been

0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:38.320
<v Speaker 3>reminding us that you know, he has talked about, you know,

0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:41.480
<v Speaker 3>kind of staying exposed to politics or staying in politics.

0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:44.000
<v Speaker 3>We're talking about Elon muskinback. Here's what he had to

0:19:44.040 --> 0:19:46.440
<v Speaker 3>say on May thirtieth from the Oval Office.

0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:49.840
<v Speaker 8>Well, I expect to continue to provide advice at whatever

0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:52.480
<v Speaker 8>the president would like advice and helps you if he

0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:58.040
<v Speaker 8>I mean, yeah, it's I expect to remain a friend

0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:02.440
<v Speaker 8>and an advisor, and certainly if there's any President wants

0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:04.679
<v Speaker 8>me to do, I'm at the President Service.

0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:05.560
<v Speaker 5>All right.

0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:08.960
<v Speaker 3>Again, that was Elon Musk there with Donald Trump, the

0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:12.800
<v Speaker 3>President of the United States, back on May thirtieth. So Max,

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:15.160
<v Speaker 3>if we read something like this, I mean, who knows

0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:16.000
<v Speaker 3>is it going to be?

0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:19.000
<v Speaker 2>What was that the day with the black guy? I

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:22.119
<v Speaker 2>just I just wanted to that was parenting Mishap.

0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:22.680
<v Speaker 4>Yeah. Sorry.

0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:24.800
<v Speaker 2>The reason I asked is because you were on our

0:20:24.840 --> 0:20:27.399
<v Speaker 2>program yesterday, that old big take. It's the cover of

0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:30.359
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg BusinessWeek. The issue is on my desk, right, and

0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:31.160
<v Speaker 2>this is all about this.

0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:35.840
<v Speaker 7>This is like the financial filing equivalent of a black guy, right,

0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:38.680
<v Speaker 7>an acknowledgment that this that the that there is risk

0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:41.240
<v Speaker 7>here and risk for his companies. I mean, just now,

0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:44.760
<v Speaker 7>as we're talking about this, Musk has been tweeting sort

0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:49.840
<v Speaker 7>of semi taunting, uh, the Trump administration over reports around

0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:53.640
<v Speaker 7>the Golden Dome, reports that the Defense Department my look

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:58.240
<v Speaker 7>for alternatives to SpaceX. So he's obviously moving into a

0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:02.400
<v Speaker 7>sort of different position and relative to the Trump administration.

0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:04.399
<v Speaker 7>I'd say it's kind of similar to the one he

0:21:04.480 --> 0:21:08.520
<v Speaker 7>had with the Biden administration, although of course Musk's politics

0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:10.640
<v Speaker 7>have changed quite a lot since then.

0:21:10.880 --> 0:21:12.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I guess that's what I was curious, Like, you know,

0:21:12.960 --> 0:21:15.320
<v Speaker 3>is it that he's gonna go back and become buddy

0:21:15.359 --> 0:21:17.640
<v Speaker 3>again or like, we just don't like in what form,

0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:20.639
<v Speaker 3>or is he kind of like this and just figuring

0:21:20.720 --> 0:21:22.840
<v Speaker 3>out a different involvement.

0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:24.680
<v Speaker 4>And well, I mean, I.

0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:29.399
<v Speaker 7>Think Musks has carved out an identity that puts him further,

0:21:29.600 --> 0:21:31.760
<v Speaker 7>that puts him to the right of President Trump on

0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:35.320
<v Speaker 7>a whole bunch of issues. You know, you brought up

0:21:35.320 --> 0:21:37.320
<v Speaker 7>the deficit. But of course he talks all the time

0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:41.800
<v Speaker 7>about you know, identity politics, about about sort of cultural issues,

0:21:41.840 --> 0:21:45.639
<v Speaker 7>always uh, you know, talking to taking a more or

0:21:45.720 --> 0:21:48.560
<v Speaker 7>less right wing position, and that's kind of where his

0:21:48.640 --> 0:21:50.680
<v Speaker 7>fandom is. And that that to the extent that he

0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:53.919
<v Speaker 7>has a political platform, I'd expect it to be, you know,

0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:56.200
<v Speaker 7>a right wing platform, further to the right than the

0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:58.880
<v Speaker 7>Republican Party for sure. But of course there's also an

0:21:58.880 --> 0:22:01.040
<v Speaker 7>element of self and right where a lot of his

0:22:01.119 --> 0:22:04.760
<v Speaker 7>positions coincide with the interests of his companies. His companies,

0:22:04.800 --> 0:22:06.719
<v Speaker 7>as I've said a bunch of times on this program,

0:22:06.720 --> 0:22:10.159
<v Speaker 7>and others, you know, are are either heavily regulated by

0:22:10.200 --> 0:22:12.720
<v Speaker 7>the US government or dependent on government contracts. So it's

0:22:12.760 --> 0:22:15.439
<v Speaker 7>going to be my guess, and my supposition would be

0:22:15.760 --> 0:22:19.760
<v Speaker 7>some combination of Musk's you know, own political interests and

0:22:19.800 --> 0:22:23.480
<v Speaker 7>fixations along with you know, self interested policies. So you

0:22:23.480 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 7>could imagine very conservative on cultural issues perhaps, but probably

0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:30.520
<v Speaker 7>like a little bit less conservative on the question of

0:22:30.560 --> 0:22:33.160
<v Speaker 7>funding you know, green technology companies and so on, because

0:22:33.160 --> 0:22:35.080
<v Speaker 7>of course that's what Tesla is to some extent.

0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:36.359
<v Speaker 6>We'll see.

0:22:36.720 --> 0:22:38.480
<v Speaker 3>I don't know, yeah, day by day.

0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:40.960
<v Speaker 2>Hey, this is a great story though, Dana Hall, Lauren Grush,

0:22:41.000 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 2>I'd love those SpaceX warning investors that Elon Musk could

0:22:44.040 --> 0:22:46.240
<v Speaker 2>return to US politics Max before we let you go?

0:22:46.920 --> 0:22:49.840
<v Speaker 2>Is this more the lawyers covering themselves than it is

0:22:49.880 --> 0:22:52.440
<v Speaker 2>an indication that Musk is going to have a new adventure.

0:22:52.600 --> 0:22:54.760
<v Speaker 7>I like it, Yeah, I mean, I think more or less,

0:22:54.760 --> 0:22:56.480
<v Speaker 7>And I think anytime you see something like this in

0:22:56.520 --> 0:22:59.679
<v Speaker 7>a filing, obviously, lawyers as much as Musk has a

0:22:59.760 --> 0:23:03.200
<v Speaker 7>state view that is not super positive about lawyers. My

0:23:03.640 --> 0:23:07.520
<v Speaker 7>assumption here is that you know this is this is people,

0:23:07.560 --> 0:23:11.160
<v Speaker 7>the lawyers and investor relations types trying to cover thea.

0:23:11.040 --> 0:23:13.199
<v Speaker 3>He signed off on it, of course, right, yeah, so

0:23:13.240 --> 0:23:14.400
<v Speaker 3>he's all in on this as well.

0:23:15.240 --> 0:23:15.840
<v Speaker 6>Shares a tesla.

0:23:15.880 --> 0:23:17.520
<v Speaker 3>By the way, they're up about one point eight percent.

0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:21.159
<v Speaker 3>So one of our metrics on this, hey be ready,

0:23:21.840 --> 0:23:24.440
<v Speaker 3>have your pager or whatever the heck ready because we.

0:23:24.440 --> 0:23:27.480
<v Speaker 4>May nice I know, I know, the max signal.

0:23:27.680 --> 0:23:30.280
<v Speaker 3>Your starlink up and running, because we may reach out

0:23:30.320 --> 0:23:30.800
<v Speaker 3>to you again.

0:23:31.480 --> 0:23:31.800
<v Speaker 4>Of course.

0:23:31.800 --> 0:23:34.160
<v Speaker 3>That is Bloomberg Business Weeks Senior reporter Max Chafkin. He's

0:23:34.200 --> 0:23:37.600
<v Speaker 3>co host of the Everybody's Business and Elon Inc podcasts

0:23:37.640 --> 0:23:39.360
<v Speaker 3>and the author of The Contrarian.

0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:45.280
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Listen live

0:23:45.320 --> 0:23:48.560
<v Speaker 1>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Applecarplay and

0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 1>Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

0:23:51.720 --> 0:23:55.359
<v Speaker 1>listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:23:55.920 --> 0:23:58.600
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:23:59.400 --> 0:24:01.960
<v Speaker 3>Our next guest certainly familiar to our Bloomberg audience and

0:24:02.040 --> 0:24:05.560
<v Speaker 3>has to take all of these big macro factors into

0:24:05.680 --> 0:24:08.360
<v Speaker 3>account when thinking about the financial markets and figuring out

0:24:08.359 --> 0:24:10.359
<v Speaker 3>what might be the possible impact. Great to have with

0:24:10.440 --> 0:24:13.479
<v Speaker 3>us Monica Garrish, she's executive director, head of US Policy

0:24:13.480 --> 0:24:17.600
<v Speaker 3>for Morgan's Stanley Wealth Management right here in studio. Good

0:24:17.600 --> 0:24:20.320
<v Speaker 3>to have you here. There is a lot coming at

0:24:20.720 --> 0:24:23.160
<v Speaker 3>investors and strategists to trying to figure out our way

0:24:23.200 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 3>forward when there's still a lot of unknows. So I

0:24:25.800 --> 0:24:29.280
<v Speaker 3>am curious, first of all, with the pressure on Fedcher J. Powell,

0:24:29.800 --> 0:24:32.119
<v Speaker 3>do you believe he could step down early?

0:24:33.240 --> 0:24:37.120
<v Speaker 9>I think it's up to him right the decision. There's

0:24:37.160 --> 0:24:40.120
<v Speaker 9>no rule that says like he can't. In our view,

0:24:40.160 --> 0:24:42.200
<v Speaker 9>we do think that he's likely to see the term

0:24:42.240 --> 0:24:44.639
<v Speaker 9>out is only eight more months, right, So this is

0:24:44.960 --> 0:24:48.160
<v Speaker 9>important to keep at the forefront of this narrative. It's

0:24:48.200 --> 0:24:51.520
<v Speaker 9>also important, I think, to Vissent and others to have

0:24:51.520 --> 0:24:54.919
<v Speaker 9>stability within treasury markets. So that is a critical factor

0:24:54.960 --> 0:24:55.560
<v Speaker 9>in all of this visit.

0:24:55.600 --> 0:24:57.840
<v Speaker 3>So why does this Treasury secretary though sometimes seem to

0:24:57.840 --> 0:25:00.359
<v Speaker 3>put pressure on Fedcher.

0:25:00.400 --> 0:25:03.320
<v Speaker 9>Well, that's because you have a president that's looking for

0:25:03.400 --> 0:25:06.040
<v Speaker 9>a lower ten year rate. You know his background. You

0:25:06.080 --> 0:25:09.000
<v Speaker 9>got to remember he's a real estate guy, and having

0:25:09.080 --> 0:25:13.200
<v Speaker 9>you know, more combinative lending policies is right in line

0:25:13.280 --> 0:25:13.560
<v Speaker 9>with that.

0:25:14.040 --> 0:25:17.800
<v Speaker 3>So, but the Treasury Secretary is no stranger to Wall

0:25:17.840 --> 0:25:20.920
<v Speaker 3>Street and understanding the importance of the FED chair, I mean,

0:25:21.160 --> 0:25:24.240
<v Speaker 3>I mean for him alone, I think it's kind of interesting,

0:25:24.320 --> 0:25:24.760
<v Speaker 3>or is it?

0:25:25.160 --> 0:25:27.240
<v Speaker 9>I mean, which is why I think I want to

0:25:27.280 --> 0:25:29.760
<v Speaker 9>agree with you and then and that it is interesting,

0:25:30.080 --> 0:25:33.359
<v Speaker 9>But he's important. And then he was a big voice

0:25:33.400 --> 0:25:36.600
<v Speaker 9>of reason when it came to the initial tariff announcements

0:25:36.640 --> 0:25:40.040
<v Speaker 9>for example, right he came in, he essentially coached the

0:25:40.080 --> 0:25:45.159
<v Speaker 9>president through, especially when treasury markets became unstable. So you

0:25:45.160 --> 0:25:46.960
<v Speaker 9>have to remember that this is also something that is

0:25:47.000 --> 0:25:48.520
<v Speaker 9>still top of mind for him. So I think what

0:25:48.560 --> 0:25:51.399
<v Speaker 9>he's trying to do is balance policy priorities. But the

0:25:51.440 --> 0:25:53.920
<v Speaker 9>president wants versus what is good for the markets.

0:25:54.280 --> 0:25:57.040
<v Speaker 2>In your view, what is more important to the markets

0:25:57.040 --> 0:26:02.240
<v Speaker 2>an independent reserve or clear trade policy, independent federal reserve?

0:26:02.320 --> 0:26:04.560
<v Speaker 9>I would say, right, as far as being able to

0:26:04.800 --> 0:26:07.360
<v Speaker 9>work with the committee, right and actually you know, come

0:26:07.440 --> 0:26:09.760
<v Speaker 9>up with the decision on the dot flot right of

0:26:09.760 --> 0:26:10.360
<v Speaker 9>where they're going.

0:26:10.440 --> 0:26:12.600
<v Speaker 2>Would you say that independence has been threatened over the

0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:13.920
<v Speaker 2>last few months by the president.

0:26:14.440 --> 0:26:17.080
<v Speaker 9>I wouldn't say it's been threatened. You're what you're looking

0:26:17.119 --> 0:26:20.919
<v Speaker 9>at as a President who continues to voice his personal opinions,

0:26:21.680 --> 0:26:24.240
<v Speaker 9>Powell has continued to do his job right the way

0:26:24.240 --> 0:26:26.840
<v Speaker 9>that you know he feels is the correct, you know

0:26:27.359 --> 0:26:30.040
<v Speaker 9>order right in an independent fashion. You have the Supreme

0:26:30.160 --> 0:26:33.199
<v Speaker 9>Court case that essentially created a carve out for the

0:26:33.240 --> 0:26:37.760
<v Speaker 9>federal reserves specifically so for further you know, adjudication if necessary.

0:26:38.000 --> 0:26:39.679
<v Speaker 9>So I don't think this is a one and done,

0:26:40.119 --> 0:26:43.000
<v Speaker 9>but I would really like to change the conversation to

0:26:43.160 --> 0:26:46.320
<v Speaker 9>the tariff piece because even though I think that having

0:26:46.880 --> 0:26:49.480
<v Speaker 9>you know, a stable FED is maybe more important for

0:26:49.520 --> 0:26:52.560
<v Speaker 9>the economy at least from a market's perspective, if we're

0:26:52.600 --> 0:26:54.800
<v Speaker 9>thinking about a terriffts that's going to have a huge

0:26:54.880 --> 0:26:58.560
<v Speaker 9>impact longer term, potentially on the inflationary piece, which ties

0:26:58.600 --> 0:27:00.520
<v Speaker 9>in to that interest rate are And.

0:27:00.480 --> 0:27:02.000
<v Speaker 3>Don't hate me because I want to go back there,

0:27:02.040 --> 0:27:05.439
<v Speaker 3>because can the FED chair and the FED and the

0:27:05.520 --> 0:27:11.679
<v Speaker 3>FOMC really determine the right policy before knowing exactly what

0:27:11.840 --> 0:27:13.600
<v Speaker 3>all the tariffs and trade you know what I mean?

0:27:13.640 --> 0:27:16.320
<v Speaker 3>Like until they know the specifics on the tariffs that

0:27:16.320 --> 0:27:19.360
<v Speaker 3>are going to be imposed, Like, can they really determine

0:27:19.359 --> 0:27:21.720
<v Speaker 3>the right policy and are they smarter to say, let's

0:27:21.720 --> 0:27:23.679
<v Speaker 3>hold off a bit a bit because if they're not

0:27:23.720 --> 0:27:28.480
<v Speaker 3>as onerous and growth picks up and inflation picks up, right,

0:27:28.520 --> 0:27:31.920
<v Speaker 3>they don't want to cut rates raise rates, right, that

0:27:31.960 --> 0:27:34.879
<v Speaker 3>would be maybe more problematic perhaps for a market, right.

0:27:34.800 --> 0:27:36.439
<v Speaker 9>That you were just I just want to say, you know,

0:27:36.560 --> 0:27:38.800
<v Speaker 9>in here in this discussion, you were talking about this

0:27:38.880 --> 0:27:41.960
<v Speaker 9>desire to hold rates low. I think that if you're

0:27:42.000 --> 0:27:45.920
<v Speaker 9>looking at the FED, they're in a homeostasis right now

0:27:46.119 --> 0:27:47.359
<v Speaker 9>because of all these factors.

0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:47.520
<v Speaker 7>Right.

0:27:47.560 --> 0:27:50.160
<v Speaker 9>The data hasn't led them completely to a place where

0:27:50.440 --> 0:27:53.719
<v Speaker 9>we have core economic weakness. We're seeing some initials so

0:27:54.040 --> 0:27:56.359
<v Speaker 9>you know, soppening in that and some of the data.

0:27:56.760 --> 0:27:58.679
<v Speaker 9>We have to see how that all pans out. We

0:27:58.720 --> 0:28:01.200
<v Speaker 9>have to wait till August first to get all of the.

0:28:01.119 --> 0:28:04.800
<v Speaker 2>Tariff news in so on that would you say that

0:28:05.119 --> 0:28:07.840
<v Speaker 2>why would you say the tariffs haven't necessarily been inflationary

0:28:07.840 --> 0:28:11.200
<v Speaker 2>at this point? Whereas three months ago in our studio,

0:28:11.880 --> 0:28:14.320
<v Speaker 2>Guests after guests was saying, just wait for to see

0:28:14.359 --> 0:28:15.600
<v Speaker 2>the inflationary effects of this.

0:28:16.040 --> 0:28:16.800
<v Speaker 4>It hasn't happened.

0:28:17.320 --> 0:28:20.120
<v Speaker 9>So you had pull forward and demand, right, you had

0:28:20.320 --> 0:28:23.240
<v Speaker 9>so fliers ordering ahead of time, you had a full

0:28:23.320 --> 0:28:26.639
<v Speaker 9>inventory restock. What we're seeing is that inventories are starting

0:28:26.640 --> 0:28:30.040
<v Speaker 9>to fall off as soon as those new orders come in.

0:28:30.200 --> 0:28:33.960
<v Speaker 9>Right at that higher level, that can be inflationary. Right,

0:28:34.000 --> 0:28:36.920
<v Speaker 9>It's going to be costs shared both with the company, right,

0:28:36.960 --> 0:28:39.440
<v Speaker 9>the business and the consumer. The other thing I want

0:28:39.440 --> 0:28:42.480
<v Speaker 9>to note is that the dollar is actually down about

0:28:42.520 --> 0:28:44.840
<v Speaker 9>ten percent from the beginning of the year. What that

0:28:45.040 --> 0:28:48.480
<v Speaker 9>means on the import front is it weaker dollar means

0:28:48.520 --> 0:28:51.680
<v Speaker 9>you are paying higher import costs. Doesn't matter what the

0:28:52.000 --> 0:28:55.800
<v Speaker 9>average effective rate is, your import costs are now higher

0:28:55.840 --> 0:28:59.360
<v Speaker 9>on a nominal basis. So again, that is also inflationary,

0:28:59.400 --> 0:29:00.800
<v Speaker 9>which is why I think I think it is you know,

0:29:00.840 --> 0:29:02.520
<v Speaker 9>a suit of the FED to hold off and see

0:29:02.520 --> 0:29:03.520
<v Speaker 9>where the data takes them.

0:29:04.920 --> 0:29:05.080
<v Speaker 4>HM.

0:29:05.840 --> 0:29:08.640
<v Speaker 3>So net net do all of this in terms of

0:29:08.640 --> 0:29:11.800
<v Speaker 3>what the longer term impact? Do you have a good

0:29:11.880 --> 0:29:13.840
<v Speaker 3>feel about? I don't know, you know, I feel like

0:29:13.880 --> 0:29:15.239
<v Speaker 3>we go from day to day in terms of what

0:29:15.240 --> 0:29:18.240
<v Speaker 3>comes at White House, which is fair and probably accurate,

0:29:18.280 --> 0:29:19.880
<v Speaker 3>But I'm just curious do you have a better feel

0:29:19.880 --> 0:29:22.400
<v Speaker 3>of Like, by the end of the year, Yeah, there'll

0:29:22.440 --> 0:29:25.600
<v Speaker 3>be some higher tariffs, but maybe not so onerous, and

0:29:26.240 --> 0:29:28.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, we'll start to see growth Quebec Like how

0:29:28.240 --> 0:29:29.680
<v Speaker 3>are you kind of gaming this out?

0:29:29.840 --> 0:29:32.760
<v Speaker 9>So you're gonna have a baseline of ten percent on

0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:35.160
<v Speaker 9>no matter country, right, on any country that you don't

0:29:35.200 --> 0:29:37.120
<v Speaker 9>have a fund, just a lot higher than what it was, right,

0:29:37.200 --> 0:29:39.480
<v Speaker 9>a lot higher, right, So at least three times higher.

0:29:39.560 --> 0:29:42.000
<v Speaker 9>So if we're looking at the average effective rate right now,

0:29:42.000 --> 0:29:44.320
<v Speaker 9>it's about twelve to fifteen, depending on how you're counting.

0:29:44.360 --> 0:29:46.520
<v Speaker 9>You know, if you look at the most recent deal,

0:29:46.520 --> 0:29:49.160
<v Speaker 9>I think with the Philippines, right, that's a nineteen percent

0:29:49.200 --> 0:29:51.600
<v Speaker 9>tariff just off of the twenty. So while we're seeing

0:29:51.640 --> 0:29:55.440
<v Speaker 9>some capitulation right and some negotiating downward, we could be

0:29:55.560 --> 0:29:58.400
<v Speaker 9>at some of the same recivirocal levels that we saw

0:29:58.440 --> 0:30:00.640
<v Speaker 9>on Liberation Day. I think that would be a surprise

0:30:00.680 --> 0:30:03.920
<v Speaker 9>to the markets. You might get some interim volatility and response,

0:30:04.320 --> 0:30:07.720
<v Speaker 9>but then it becomes an idiosyncratic risk and sorting through

0:30:07.760 --> 0:30:10.120
<v Speaker 9>which sectors and industries can be most impacted.

0:30:10.800 --> 0:30:14.040
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean yeah, it's just there's as you say, right,

0:30:14.160 --> 0:30:17.520
<v Speaker 3>each market, each country, each industry. It's really specific, and

0:30:17.560 --> 0:30:20.200
<v Speaker 3>so there's a lot of detail in terms of figuring

0:30:20.200 --> 0:30:22.600
<v Speaker 3>out the impact. Monica, thank you so much, really appreciate you.

0:30:22.880 --> 0:30:25.440
<v Speaker 3>Monica Garrish, she is executive director, head of US Policy

0:30:25.440 --> 0:30:28.800
<v Speaker 3>at Morgan's Stanley Wealth Management, joining us here in studios.

0:30:28.640 --> 0:30:31.640
<v Speaker 1>Live weekday afternoons from two to fiveys. During that listen

0:30:31.680 --> 0:30:35.280
<v Speaker 1>on Applecarplay and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:30:35.440 --> 0:30:41.040
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube Mac. How about you

0:30:41.120 --> 0:30:41.640
<v Speaker 1>let me drive?

0:30:41.880 --> 0:30:46.920
<v Speaker 2>Oh no, no, no no, this is not a toy, honey.

0:30:46.840 --> 0:30:48.560
<v Speaker 4>Please, how do the gravel?

0:30:49.160 --> 0:30:50.520
<v Speaker 6>Let's wat I want to drive.

0:30:50.520 --> 0:30:54.680
<v Speaker 10>It's a good question time.

0:30:57.600 --> 0:31:00.520
<v Speaker 4>This is the drive to the clothes. Give me a thing.

0:31:00.600 --> 0:31:03.640
<v Speaker 1>We'll try run down on Bloomberg Radio.

0:31:03.760 --> 0:31:06.080
<v Speaker 3>All right, TikTok, everybody, About eighteen minutes to go intil

0:31:06.080 --> 0:31:09.120
<v Speaker 3>we wrap up the trade on this Tuesday, July twenty second,

0:31:09.160 --> 0:31:12.880
<v Speaker 3>Carol Master Tim Steneveek here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio,

0:31:13.400 --> 0:31:15.880
<v Speaker 3>looking at probably another record for the S and P

0:31:15.960 --> 0:31:18.800
<v Speaker 3>five hundred if we continue at this level, sixty three fourteen,

0:31:18.960 --> 0:31:21.320
<v Speaker 3>up about just shy of nine points one hundred and

0:31:21.360 --> 0:31:24.000
<v Speaker 3>ninety two points higher on the Dow Jones Industrial average.

0:31:24.120 --> 0:31:26.600
<v Speaker 3>We've seen big tech under some pressure today ahead of

0:31:26.880 --> 0:31:29.680
<v Speaker 3>big tech earnings getting underway. We'll get a couple of

0:31:29.840 --> 0:31:32.680
<v Speaker 3>big ones tomorrow after the closed Nastak one hundred and

0:31:32.680 --> 0:31:35.520
<v Speaker 3>ten right now, down about ninety two points off our

0:31:35.560 --> 0:31:37.200
<v Speaker 3>best and worst levels of the session.

0:31:37.360 --> 0:31:39.280
<v Speaker 2>Let's see what Leo Kelly has to say about all this.

0:31:39.360 --> 0:31:42.680
<v Speaker 2>He's founder and CEO of Verden's Capital Advisors, more than

0:31:42.680 --> 0:31:46.040
<v Speaker 2>four billion dollars in assets under management. He joins us

0:31:46.040 --> 0:31:48.800
<v Speaker 2>from Hunt Valley, Maryland this afternoon.

0:31:50.280 --> 0:31:53.120
<v Speaker 6>Are we we're going to kind of a weird place?

0:31:53.200 --> 0:31:55.040
<v Speaker 2>I think, and I think Carol agreed.

0:31:55.320 --> 0:31:56.360
<v Speaker 3>We're feeling kind of weird.

0:31:56.440 --> 0:31:56.880
<v Speaker 6>We're feeling a.

0:31:56.840 --> 0:31:58.440
<v Speaker 4>Little weird because I can to tell you we.

0:31:58.400 --> 0:32:02.120
<v Speaker 2>Got the crypto market doing its thing, four trillion dollars

0:32:02.160 --> 0:32:05.720
<v Speaker 2>in assets as of last week, bitcoin around a record

0:32:05.880 --> 0:32:08.720
<v Speaker 2>new record close two hundred and twenty thousand dollars per bitcoin.

0:32:09.000 --> 0:32:12.440
<v Speaker 2>The meme stocks are meaning to their meaning. It's a

0:32:12.480 --> 0:32:13.200
<v Speaker 2>little crazy.

0:32:13.440 --> 0:32:14.040
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, yeah.

0:32:14.120 --> 0:32:17.920
<v Speaker 2>Tariffs are on the horizon here and those are going

0:32:17.960 --> 0:32:21.840
<v Speaker 2>to hit on August first unless something changes. What am

0:32:21.880 --> 0:32:22.560
<v Speaker 2>I missing here?

0:32:23.560 --> 0:32:29.680
<v Speaker 10>Well, you're not missing that. It's weird. It is, and

0:32:29.760 --> 0:32:32.720
<v Speaker 10>it has been really for a few months.

0:32:32.760 --> 0:32:32.920
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:32:32.960 --> 0:32:36.680
<v Speaker 10>So April second comes along and we have the tariff tantrum,

0:32:36.760 --> 0:32:40.600
<v Speaker 10>which was shocking in of itself. I mean, imagine for

0:32:40.680 --> 0:32:44.120
<v Speaker 10>a minute being surprised that Donald Trump is going to

0:32:44.480 --> 0:32:48.480
<v Speaker 10>pull a hard line to negotiate with that should be

0:32:48.600 --> 0:32:51.960
<v Speaker 10>expected not to be surprised by it. And so we

0:32:52.000 --> 0:32:56.800
<v Speaker 10>have this dramatic impact in the market, which is immediately

0:32:57.600 --> 0:32:59.440
<v Speaker 10>turns around and we make new highs.

0:33:00.320 --> 0:33:01.880
<v Speaker 6>I think the tariff thing gets done.

0:33:03.840 --> 0:33:05.280
<v Speaker 10>What I think people have to do is take a

0:33:05.280 --> 0:33:09.680
<v Speaker 10>step back and ask the question, what's important right now?

0:33:09.200 --> 0:33:11.600
<v Speaker 6>What is it we should really be focused on.

0:33:12.080 --> 0:33:14.280
<v Speaker 10>Should we be focused on whether the tariffs are fifteen

0:33:14.320 --> 0:33:16.200
<v Speaker 10>percent or twenty percent, or just that they're going.

0:33:16.120 --> 0:33:17.920
<v Speaker 6>To get done and they will get done.

0:33:18.640 --> 0:33:22.600
<v Speaker 10>Should we be focused on whether or not Jerome pal

0:33:22.880 --> 0:33:25.120
<v Speaker 10>is the next FED president, or whether or not rate

0:33:25.160 --> 0:33:27.440
<v Speaker 10>are going higher or lower? And if they go lower,

0:33:27.480 --> 0:33:31.080
<v Speaker 10>will that stimulate inflation? We think it will. And then

0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:35.360
<v Speaker 10>the intermediate term, you know, are we bullish or bearish? Well,

0:33:35.520 --> 0:33:38.160
<v Speaker 10>we're actually pretty bullish. There's a lot of investment coming

0:33:38.200 --> 0:33:42.760
<v Speaker 10>to the US. You know, we have earnings are starting

0:33:42.760 --> 0:33:46.040
<v Speaker 10>to gain a little momentum. AI productivity is going to

0:33:46.040 --> 0:33:49.040
<v Speaker 10>be significant, So there's reasons in the intermediate term to

0:33:49.040 --> 0:33:51.440
<v Speaker 10>be bullish. And there's a lot of volatility I think

0:33:51.520 --> 0:33:53.600
<v Speaker 10>headed in front of us in the fall. So yeah,

0:33:53.600 --> 0:33:57.880
<v Speaker 10>it's weird because it feels a little scary in the

0:33:58.000 --> 0:34:00.920
<v Speaker 10>very short run, and yet so many reasons to be

0:34:00.960 --> 0:34:02.320
<v Speaker 10>bullsh in the intermediate term.

0:34:02.360 --> 0:34:03.760
<v Speaker 3>All Right, I just got to take a step back

0:34:03.760 --> 0:34:05.320
<v Speaker 3>because I think last time you were on with us

0:34:05.400 --> 0:34:09.120
<v Speaker 3>LEO was in mid February, So what a long, strange

0:34:09.120 --> 0:34:12.000
<v Speaker 3>trip it's been for us, Doc, So I'm just curious

0:34:12.520 --> 0:34:14.440
<v Speaker 3>you kind of walked us through some of the stuff

0:34:14.480 --> 0:34:17.160
<v Speaker 3>right in terms of the imposition of tariffs by President

0:34:17.160 --> 0:34:20.440
<v Speaker 3>Trump and backing off. What has the last five min

0:34:20.680 --> 0:34:23.000
<v Speaker 3>months been like for you and managing money for your

0:34:23.000 --> 0:34:26.440
<v Speaker 3>clients been interesting?

0:34:26.520 --> 0:34:29.000
<v Speaker 10>So we have We've been holding cash and lieu of

0:34:29.040 --> 0:34:30.040
<v Speaker 10>long bonds, so.

0:34:29.960 --> 0:34:30.880
<v Speaker 6>We've had cash.

0:34:31.160 --> 0:34:37.040
<v Speaker 10>We have been extremely disciplined in rebouncing portfolios and not

0:34:37.160 --> 0:34:39.319
<v Speaker 10>letting the hot stuff go too far and get too

0:34:39.320 --> 0:34:42.160
<v Speaker 10>far out of kilter. So we had some dry powder,

0:34:42.400 --> 0:34:45.160
<v Speaker 10>and to be fair, over the last couple of years,

0:34:45.640 --> 0:34:48.680
<v Speaker 10>we've been waiting on volatility to put money to work.

0:34:49.000 --> 0:34:53.040
<v Speaker 10>So when April hit and we had this volatility and

0:34:53.080 --> 0:34:56.520
<v Speaker 10>this pullback, we were very active in that moment. And

0:34:56.600 --> 0:34:59.440
<v Speaker 10>so for us this year has been active. It's been

0:34:59.480 --> 0:35:04.200
<v Speaker 10>active from the standpoint of executing when the volatility has

0:35:04.280 --> 0:35:07.680
<v Speaker 10>hit and then maintaining discipline as we go through this.

0:35:07.760 --> 0:35:11.240
<v Speaker 10>And we're continuing to tell clients that more volatility is coming.

0:35:11.880 --> 0:35:13.920
<v Speaker 6>But we're a little more bullish than we've been in

0:35:14.000 --> 0:35:14.520
<v Speaker 6>years past.

0:35:14.560 --> 0:35:17.399
<v Speaker 10>And years past we've been a little hesitant to jump

0:35:17.440 --> 0:35:18.440
<v Speaker 10>into the volatile moments.

0:35:18.480 --> 0:35:19.480
<v Speaker 6>We're not anymore.

0:35:19.520 --> 0:35:22.280
<v Speaker 10>We're buying into volatility because we do think the intermediate

0:35:22.320 --> 0:35:23.239
<v Speaker 10>term looks pretty good.

0:35:23.840 --> 0:35:27.080
<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, volatility, that was certainly something that we

0:35:27.080 --> 0:35:29.800
<v Speaker 2>saw in April, but things have been really calm over.

0:35:29.640 --> 0:35:30.640
<v Speaker 6>The past few weeks.

0:35:31.600 --> 0:35:34.200
<v Speaker 2>What how opportunities have you seen of late or are

0:35:34.239 --> 0:35:36.600
<v Speaker 2>you still sitting on the sidelines waiting for things to

0:35:36.640 --> 0:35:37.160
<v Speaker 2>move lower.

0:35:38.120 --> 0:35:40.480
<v Speaker 10>Well, I would say this, there's a couple of things

0:35:40.520 --> 0:35:42.399
<v Speaker 10>that are going on over the last several weeks. One,

0:35:42.560 --> 0:35:44.719
<v Speaker 10>valuations are starting to get stretched again, especially in the

0:35:44.760 --> 0:35:47.719
<v Speaker 10>hot stocks, right the big tech stocks, And so I

0:35:47.760 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 10>think if the market continues to move higher at this pace,

0:35:52.280 --> 0:35:55.680
<v Speaker 10>our next move would be to reduce again because our

0:35:55.719 --> 0:35:58.200
<v Speaker 10>allocations will get out of we'll get out of sync.

0:35:58.480 --> 0:36:01.000
<v Speaker 10>But there's still areas in the market invest small mid

0:36:01.040 --> 0:36:04.239
<v Speaker 10>cap stocks still look pretty reasonable. International stocks made a

0:36:04.280 --> 0:36:06.680
<v Speaker 10>big move. You might recall here last year we were

0:36:06.680 --> 0:36:10.080
<v Speaker 10>big proponents of international stocks. We have been overweight. They've

0:36:10.080 --> 0:36:12.120
<v Speaker 10>made a big run this year, so we're a little

0:36:12.160 --> 0:36:14.160
<v Speaker 10>out of uh, you know again out of allocation on

0:36:14.160 --> 0:36:17.399
<v Speaker 10>that as well. And in the private markets, there's still

0:36:17.400 --> 0:36:21.200
<v Speaker 10>a lot of opportunity in private private equity investing, private credit.

0:36:21.920 --> 0:36:24.720
<v Speaker 10>There's some interesting energy plays out there. So we're always

0:36:24.840 --> 0:36:26.960
<v Speaker 10>active in the markets, just not always in the S

0:36:27.000 --> 0:36:27.160
<v Speaker 10>and P.

0:36:27.280 --> 0:36:27.880
<v Speaker 6>Five hundred.

0:36:28.040 --> 0:36:30.080
<v Speaker 3>Well that's always going to ask. I mean, you know,

0:36:30.360 --> 0:36:33.080
<v Speaker 3>increasingly everybody's been talking about the private markets, and so

0:36:33.760 --> 0:36:35.760
<v Speaker 3>you know, for folks who focus on the public markets,

0:36:35.800 --> 0:36:37.680
<v Speaker 3>you know, you do wonder what you're missing, or you

0:36:37.800 --> 0:36:42.120
<v Speaker 3>probably know what you're missing. Increasingly, are you, for your

0:36:42.120 --> 0:36:46.759
<v Speaker 3>client base, Leo more interested in the private markets that

0:36:46.760 --> 0:36:49.920
<v Speaker 3>that's where you can kind of really juice performance versus

0:36:50.080 --> 0:36:51.040
<v Speaker 3>the public markets.

0:36:52.200 --> 0:36:53.799
<v Speaker 6>Well, we have been for a long time.

0:36:53.840 --> 0:36:56.440
<v Speaker 10>So we've been we've been longtime players in the private markets,

0:36:56.440 --> 0:36:58.360
<v Speaker 10>and we continue to put a lot.

0:36:58.200 --> 0:36:59.040
<v Speaker 6>Of focus around that.

0:36:59.719 --> 0:37:02.279
<v Speaker 10>I think think there's some caution that we have to

0:37:02.320 --> 0:37:05.120
<v Speaker 10>warn folks about when they start looking at the private markets.

0:37:05.440 --> 0:37:09.840
<v Speaker 10>This democratizing private investments, especially with the new law that

0:37:09.960 --> 0:37:12.920
<v Speaker 10>was just passed that allows these private investments to go

0:37:12.960 --> 0:37:16.920
<v Speaker 10>in the form one ks and IRA accounts. There's going

0:37:16.960 --> 0:37:21.920
<v Speaker 10>to be folks chasing return and private investing is great

0:37:22.239 --> 0:37:25.800
<v Speaker 10>if you do a few things. One you have rigorous

0:37:25.880 --> 0:37:30.040
<v Speaker 10>due diligence. That's really important. Two you have to diversify

0:37:30.080 --> 0:37:34.240
<v Speaker 10>the portfolio over vintage and style. Too many times people

0:37:34.239 --> 0:37:36.560
<v Speaker 10>get excited about one or two hot dots and they

0:37:36.600 --> 0:37:39.360
<v Speaker 10>sound great and they have great past performance returns and

0:37:39.400 --> 0:37:41.200
<v Speaker 10>they'll throw a lot of money. Well, in the private

0:37:41.200 --> 0:37:43.920
<v Speaker 10>equity world, that could be very dangerous because it's ill

0:37:43.960 --> 0:37:46.680
<v Speaker 10>liquid and you get stuck for a long long time.

0:37:46.760 --> 0:37:48.640
<v Speaker 6>It's not like a stock market that goes.

0:37:48.440 --> 0:37:51.000
<v Speaker 10>Down and then pops right back up and you can

0:37:51.800 --> 0:37:54.239
<v Speaker 10>wait it out. With the private markets, you can be

0:37:54.280 --> 0:37:56.719
<v Speaker 10>sitting on that for a long time. So I think

0:37:56.800 --> 0:38:00.120
<v Speaker 10>folks have to be aware of the illoquate nature of it.

0:38:00.400 --> 0:38:02.920
<v Speaker 10>So you have to allocate correctly, not just how much

0:38:02.960 --> 0:38:07.000
<v Speaker 10>you put in private markets, but per deal and per vintage,

0:38:07.040 --> 0:38:10.839
<v Speaker 10>meaning what year you're buying into. It takes I mean,

0:38:10.880 --> 0:38:14.600
<v Speaker 10>Carol takes five to seven years to build a good

0:38:14.640 --> 0:38:17.080
<v Speaker 10>private equity portfolio. So it's just not something you can

0:38:17.160 --> 0:38:17.920
<v Speaker 10>just jump in and do.

0:38:18.760 --> 0:38:18.800
<v Speaker 7>No.

0:38:19.000 --> 0:38:21.239
<v Speaker 3>I totally understand and I mean, we've talked a lot

0:38:21.280 --> 0:38:24.080
<v Speaker 3>about private equity, the difficulty in kind of getting out

0:38:24.239 --> 0:38:26.719
<v Speaker 3>in the last few years, so people are trying to

0:38:26.719 --> 0:38:27.880
<v Speaker 3>figure out their portfolio.

0:38:28.400 --> 0:38:29.080
<v Speaker 1>We got to run.

0:38:29.200 --> 0:38:31.200
<v Speaker 4>Leo, good do you talk to with you again?

0:38:31.280 --> 0:38:32.359
<v Speaker 3>Be well, we'll talk soon.

0:38:32.680 --> 0:38:34.239
<v Speaker 6>Always always good to be with you guys.

0:38:34.239 --> 0:38:36.359
<v Speaker 3>Thank you all right, Leo Kelly. He's founder and CEO

0:38:36.440 --> 0:38:39.000
<v Speaker 3>Verdon's Capital Advisors. They've got about four billion in assets

0:38:39.080 --> 0:38:41.680
<v Speaker 3>under management. Joining us once again from Maryland.

0:38:42.280 --> 0:38:47.759
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:38:47.920 --> 0:38:51.960
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0:38:52.000 --> 0:38:56.160
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0:38:56.320 --> 0:39:00.000
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0:39:00.320 --> 0:39:03.160
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0:39:03.400 --> 0:39:05.600
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