Speaker 1: Check it on Man No Down Man Thursday morning, December
Speaker 1: seventy and Beating the Book podcast a mega pod for
Speaker 1: week number fifteen, Live from the D in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Mike Palm conciliary to Derek Stevens over here at Circuits
Speaker 1: Sports UH Live at the D. We're never leaving the D.
Speaker 1: We're never going to circu I don't why should we
Speaker 1: why this was a built for the COVID area here,
Speaker 1: beautifully spaced out table. I still like to come down
Speaker 1: here on Sundays and watch football, and this is my
Speaker 1: preferred spot. Yes, do you really? I said, Derek, I said,
Speaker 1: you spent a billion dollars and you couldn't top our
Speaker 1: Canada Mark Canada's where we broadcast live from the d.
Speaker 1: UH Todd wishing it from his mother's cork Addict in Pittsburgh, PA.
Speaker 1: With his Pittsburgh Steelers decal behind him is logo, how
Speaker 1: you doing, Todd? You're good. I'm doing great. I feel
Speaker 1: attacked already, but I'm doing great. I was before the show.
Speaker 1: We Todd feels attacked, but he was really the one
Speaker 1: who was attacking, wasn't he kind of After another visa
Speaker 1: appearance this morning, that's sorry. He was on the radio
Speaker 1: one segment Big Show. Oh wait a second, Oh, I
Speaker 1: was on the radio. I probably came up with something
Speaker 1: that Mike can rebrand and steal and put on Follow
Speaker 1: the Money, like let's let's introduce our our rotating guests.
Speaker 1: Is kind enough to join us first time ever on
Speaker 1: the megapod. He has been kind enough. Aaron and I
Speaker 1: have done radio segments on Sirius for many years and
Speaker 1: he's been on the podcast before, but never on the megapod,
Speaker 1: which is what we do Thursdays, and we've done it
Speaker 1: for about a decade. It is the founder, the creator
Speaker 1: of the pioneering pro football analytics site Football Outsiders. It's
Speaker 1: Aaron Shots. How you doing Aera appreciate it. I'm good.
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to get used to the rhythms of this.
Speaker 1: That's right. It does have a certain rhythm, and as
Speaker 1: a certain rhythm is the new guy. I'm not quite
Speaker 1: sure how it goes. Think it's an outstanding opening comment.
Speaker 1: There is a it's very fun. It's very fun loving,
Speaker 1: and you know, even though there are a number of
Speaker 1: people on this podcast that are not really good people,
Speaker 1: I try to work with them. Okay, that's kind of
Speaker 1: the rhythm. It's a syncopated beat, is what it is there,
Speaker 1: and it's not really on on measure. It's not four
Speaker 1: or four times has its own cadies. It's right the time.
Speaker 1: That's the tempo changes all right, So as always the
Speaker 1: format remains the same on the show. Let us begin
Speaker 1: though with a a update of Circus Survivor contests. Sir, So,
Speaker 1: we started with eighty nine entries last week going into
Speaker 1: that week, and to begin the season, we're at eighty nine.
Speaker 1: If anyone or persons goes eighteen and oh, because Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: us its own day, Derrick Stevens adds a million dollar bonus,
Speaker 1: which looks very likely, um very likely, so that the
Speaker 1: total pot would be two point three nine million dollars. Uh.
Speaker 1: The interesting question last week was that eighty two of
Speaker 1: the eighty nine survivors had the Seahawks, who were laying
Speaker 1: close to three touchdowns as it turns out, against the Jets,
Speaker 1: and we put numbers on how many of the eighty
Speaker 1: two would take it. I said seventy two. You were
Speaker 1: right there. Your number was the best of anyone. You know.
Speaker 1: It's interesting. Amal Shaw, who plays it very well and
Speaker 1: better than others, and Lombardi both said the numbers should
Speaker 1: be eighty two. If the over undershould be eighty one
Speaker 1: and a half, how can you not use how can
Speaker 1: you not take Seattle? I'm all said, I'd take it
Speaker 1: a hundred times out of a hundred, and if they
Speaker 1: lose to the Jets, I live with it, um, I said.
Speaker 1: And half ended up being seventies. Seventy six took them.
Speaker 1: So in the end, seven entries were eliminated, two nervy
Speaker 1: souls who lost with the Carolina Panthers against Denver, and
Speaker 1: then uh and then we had five go down with
Speaker 1: the Saints at Philadelphia. So we stand with eighty two
Speaker 1: now and this will kind of be I think it
Speaker 1: starts to be separation weeks these last three weeks because
Speaker 1: there's not big chunks of people that have obvious teams available.
Speaker 1: So you'll see the picks spread out now. I don't
Speaker 1: know if we'll see any upsets though, that's the big question,
Speaker 1: but you're right, they will be spread out from now.
Speaker 1: And that was the last week where everybody was going
Speaker 1: to land on one team. You had a guest on today,
Speaker 1: who's who's handicapping which entries have a chance or our
Speaker 1: favorite to go eighteen and a right is that correct?
Speaker 1: Two he crunched the numbers. Twenty five of the eighty two,
Speaker 1: by his numbers, have a better than fifty percent chance
Speaker 1: of going the distance of which I am one, and
Speaker 1: of which I ranked quite highly. But I wouldn't say that.
Speaker 1: I know a shem is listening once again for new
Speaker 1: time listeners as him the Hebrew for the name literally
Speaker 1: what God, of course is what Todd means by that.
Speaker 1: And Todd feels like a sham hasn't been dead against him.
Speaker 1: And the truth is, there really is no childlike God
Speaker 1: that people believe in. So I am not of the
Speaker 1: ilk of the people who believe in the childlike type
Speaker 1: of God. But anyway, against you, you're gonna lose week
Speaker 1: sevent right, That's exactly right. That'll be when you lose.
Speaker 1: And that's the squirrely week, right, no matter no matter
Speaker 1: how it's planned out. Now it's time for fast money.
Speaker 1: I think that's what that noise means is it's time
Speaker 1: for fast money now. I think that, uh, that's the week,
Speaker 1: no matter what that spreadsheet says. We're all those of
Speaker 1: us who you know, have have planned this a mall
Speaker 1: shop perhaps the greatest planner of them all, those of
Speaker 1: us who have planned this, there is still you can
Speaker 1: plan it as well as you can possibly plan it.
Speaker 1: But when it comes to week seventeen, we still don't
Speaker 1: know who's going to be motivated and who's not. Because
Speaker 1: the one thing if it's to make the playoffs, are
Speaker 1: not to make the ploffs. So one thing to make
Speaker 1: the number one seed or not only one seed gets
Speaker 1: the by this year per conference. But well, teams really
Speaker 1: care about seeds two through six if they're already in
Speaker 1: heading into week seventeen. We don't know two thor seven
Speaker 1: if they're already in. Yeah, I want me to give
Speaker 1: you the update on how we're doing. Now you've done. Yeah,
Speaker 1: little update. Bad week for Gil and Mikey, good week
Speaker 1: for me last week, although I will say this, Gil
Speaker 1: and Mikey had Atlanta minus two and a half. I
Speaker 1: had them a game also minus two and a half,
Speaker 1: because I thought, well, we're getting to the end of
Speaker 1: the game, and how can Anthony Lynn mess it up?
Speaker 1: And the only thing I forgot was that they were
Speaker 1: he was playing the Atlanta Falcons, the only team that
Speaker 1: could theoretically mess it up more than Anthony Lynn, so
Speaker 1: old Maddie Ice, who I call Matt hot water boiling
Speaker 1: Ryan through two interceptions in the last two minutes of
Speaker 1: that game, the Chargers through an interception back to him
Speaker 1: to try to give him the game back. Finally, of course,
Speaker 1: the Chargers won, and both Gil and Mikey went down.
Speaker 1: So that puts Gil and Mike Gil nineteen and two,
Speaker 1: Mikey at twenty twenty and two, and I'm at one
Speaker 1: and one, just barely behind them with a nice two
Speaker 1: in one week. In the teasers, I him way ahead
Speaker 1: at ten and four, Mikey at nine and five, and
Speaker 1: Gil at eight and six, So I'm way ahead in
Speaker 1: the teasers. Todd, Why did you say Gil and Mikey
Speaker 1: had a bad week? Didn't I go too and one
Speaker 1: as well as you? And Gil went one and two? Oh,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, that's right, Mikey didn't go. I bespoke. Mikey
Speaker 1: did go to and one with the Colt Raiders over
Speaker 1: which was easy Atlanta, which it was was the Anthony
Speaker 1: Lynn nonsense, and then the Cleveland Baltimore over, which was
Speaker 1: about as good and over as they come. Thank you.
Speaker 1: Court stenographer Todd wish Now, court stenographer of the show.
Speaker 1: All right, let's beget with the Thursday night game. It
Speaker 1: doesn't have to be one of your best bets. If
Speaker 1: you have anything to say about the Thursday night game, Um,
Speaker 1: Aaron shots our esteemed guest, any any thoughts on this
Speaker 1: game from betting perspective? Would you stay away from it?
Speaker 1: Anything here tonight? With the Charges in the Raiders, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean there's a lot of injuries in this game,
Speaker 1: so it's sort of like there's a lot of defensive
Speaker 1: players out for the Raiders. But then Mike Williams is
Speaker 1: out and apparently Keenan Allen is her for the Chargers,
Speaker 1: And um, I think I liked it better when it
Speaker 1: was Raiders by three than it Raiders by three and
Speaker 1: a half. I think it's Raiders by three and a
Speaker 1: half now I kind of like Raiders by three. You
Speaker 1: do like the Raiders by three. You kind of like it.
Speaker 1: It's not the best of the week, but I kind
Speaker 1: of like it. We have Vegas twenty two and we
Speaker 1: have the Chargers twenty nine. But basically, the difference between
Speaker 1: the teams of special teams, I mean special teams is
Speaker 1: less predictive than offense. But the Charger special teams are
Speaker 1: so bad that you can kind of count on them
Speaker 1: doing something bad historically bad by your numbers, correct, Yeah,
Speaker 1: second worst special teams we've ever measured. Going back to
Speaker 1: think about that, second worst special teams ever back all
Speaker 1: the way to and Brother Lynn is a special teams coach.
Speaker 1: That's how we got his start in the league. What
Speaker 1: you call him Brotherly that I we need to talk
Speaker 1: to you about that. I call him Brother Lynn because
Speaker 1: one of the No Hyper Bowl segments was Brother Lynn's
Speaker 1: traveling in Aptitude show. Okay, off the b off the
Speaker 1: Beatles to mikey Night. Well if I started ripping you
Speaker 1: off and then I added onto the the Beatles, the
Speaker 1: the Chargers that that end of first half sequence uh
Speaker 1: twenty two seconds left uh last week in the first half,
Speaker 1: and you're watching this and you're like, is this really
Speaker 1: happening again? With Anthony Lennon the Chargers against the Falcons,
Speaker 1: uh twenty two seconds left, clock stop, no time outs,
Speaker 1: third and one at the Atlanta A down seventeen to ten,
Speaker 1: the Chargers run. Okay, maybe they run, maybe you can
Speaker 1: still spike it after that, but they don't. Um they
Speaker 1: have the clock keeps taking, they have no time outs
Speaker 1: with about nine seconds left, they decided to rush the
Speaker 1: field goal unit on. They rushed the field goal unit
Speaker 1: out on instead of taking a shot at the end zone,
Speaker 1: which they had time for. Of course, they don't get
Speaker 1: off the twenty five yards. So what ends up happening
Speaker 1: is clock goes to zero, but they have uh, you know,
Speaker 1: guys on offense lollygagging off the field. Field will unit
Speaker 1: going on the field. Even if it goes in in time,
Speaker 1: it's too many men on the field, it doesn't count.
Speaker 1: It's amazing. They couldn't bike it because it was third
Speaker 1: and one, so when they didn't make the first down,
Speaker 1: they lost that option. That's correct. That is correct. Once again,
Speaker 1: Anthony Lynn is yelling at his offensive coordinator on the
Speaker 1: sideline about a run call, the same thing that he
Speaker 1: says in in Buffalo. It's horrible communication. When they ran
Speaker 1: the ball after the hail Mary and the live clock.
Speaker 1: I mean, no plays go through him. He doesn't have
Speaker 1: approval on any of the play calling. He doesn't speak
Speaker 1: to the team before the game. I'm just not sure
Speaker 1: why the Spano's family is so in love with this guy.
Speaker 1: I don't know. They may keep him, by the way,
Speaker 1: Uh I'm with Aaron, no pre flop play on this
Speaker 1: for me tonight. Brian Bulaga is out. Uh, you have Perryman, Natteralie.
Speaker 1: But the real thing is on offense. As Aaron indicated,
Speaker 1: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, all of them questionable.
Speaker 1: Did you hear Williams is out out far? Is he? Definitely?
Speaker 1: What I've seen is that Williams out Wow, and then
Speaker 1: the Raiders will be missing Jonathan Abram, Damon, Ornette Cleveland, Ferrell,
Speaker 1: Nicholas Moreau. So you have Nicholas Morrow. So you have this.
Speaker 1: You don't know who's playing. First of all, if you
Speaker 1: knew that those Chargers were playing, namely Ekeler and Allen,
Speaker 1: maybe you pound the Charges without Without that knowledge, this
Speaker 1: is a lot. This is an in game bet for me,
Speaker 1: no pre flop if I don't know who's playing for
Speaker 1: the Chargers until I know that's anything to add Todd
Speaker 1: or Mike on that. Nothing on tonight to me, it's
Speaker 1: just in game. I just want to You know, one
Speaker 1: thing everyone should know about Raiders game. Is there anyone
Speaker 1: more in love with the field goal than John Gruden.
Speaker 1: The guy loves thirteen play drives, thirteen plays, six and
Speaker 1: a half minute drives that end on a fourth and
Speaker 1: two at the twenty three and then trots out the
Speaker 1: field goal team. I mean, John, why don't you pay
Speaker 1: attention to people like Aaron Shots, who is obviously, you know,
Speaker 1: a metrics and analytic guy. One thing I will say
Speaker 1: about metrics and analytics is they've made it. Everyone realized
Speaker 1: that you gotta go for it on fourth down, and
Speaker 1: even on third and nine. Maybe run a play that
Speaker 1: gets you to fourth and three so that you can
Speaker 1: go for it on fourth down. But John Gruden seems
Speaker 1: in love, absolutely in love with driving at sixty seven
Speaker 1: yards down the field and then in old football coach parlance, saying,
Speaker 1: I'm like, well, we've got to get some points out
Speaker 1: of this drive, you know, you know, with game all
Speaker 1: they're done here, We've gotta get some point. That to
Speaker 1: me is just insanity. Even though I like what John
Speaker 1: grun is doing, I don't understand why it's in so
Speaker 1: love with he's so much love with the field goal.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys have noticed this, but
Speaker 1: I thought you're gonna be different. I thought you're gonna
Speaker 1: be a different way with that he has. There have
Speaker 1: been closes games at least one time this year where
Speaker 1: he decided to kick a really long fifty plus yard
Speaker 1: or in a in a risk reward situation where if
Speaker 1: they miss it it costs them the game. But that too, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that too, those are the times. Yeah, you guys noticed,
Speaker 1: Do you guys notice the the incredible amount of long
Speaker 1: drives that end in a field goal for the Raiders.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys have noticed. There have
Speaker 1: been a lot of pieces this week, you know, randomly
Speaker 1: where it's like the Raiders the toughest team to figure
Speaker 1: out in football, because they they played so well against
Speaker 1: the Chiefs twice, having beaten them once and flirted with
Speaker 1: beating him a second time. And then they barely beat
Speaker 1: the Jets, and we beat the Jets on a miracle. Aaron,
Speaker 1: you you do a great job of talking about the
Speaker 1: teams that are most consistent week to week this year
Speaker 1: and the teams that are the most volatile. Are the
Speaker 1: Raiders up there in volatility from week to week performance. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they're not near the top of the league because they
Speaker 1: haven't had like the one great or one terrible performance,
Speaker 1: but they're they're pretty volatile. Matt Rule from Carolina, by
Speaker 1: the way, has done a lot of that this year,
Speaker 1: where he keeps bringing on Joey Slide for these ridiculously
Speaker 1: log field goals instead of going for it on fourth down. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the risk reward some coaches don't don't seem to get that, Aaron.
Speaker 1: Let's start with the best bets. Uh, let's get your
Speaker 1: first best bet of the week, sir, sure, let's see.
Speaker 1: My first best bet of the week is the Jacksonville
Speaker 1: Jaguars plus thirteen and a half at Baltimore. All right, um,
Speaker 1: and your thoughts as to why they're well, you know,
Speaker 1: the Ravens are really good on defense and special teams,
Speaker 1: but again in the Jaguars are our last place defense
Speaker 1: right now. But again, like for predicting the future, offense
Speaker 1: is better than defense. Shoe has been much better than
Speaker 1: Glennon or especially Jake Luton for the Jaguars. And so
Speaker 1: if you look at passing d v o A, which
Speaker 1: is our our passing metric, you take out the week
Speaker 1: twelve game where Robert Griffin started for the Ravens, you
Speaker 1: still you end up with minus six percent for jackson uh,
Speaker 1: and minus eleven percent from Mishoe. So they're not that
Speaker 1: far off from each other. Now the defense is obviously
Speaker 1: that's a big gap. But thirteen and a half is
Speaker 1: a big line. I mean, I think that's comfortable. How
Speaker 1: how's thirteen? I see thirteen CONCESSI you'll still take the thirteen? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I would still take the thirteen. Okay, Todd, is that
Speaker 1: what you say? Thirteen concesses? Yeah? I see consensus. Okay,
Speaker 1: Mikey your first best bet, sir. I did want to
Speaker 1: mention I do have a play on the Thursday night game,
Speaker 1: not in this, but I did bet the game over
Speaker 1: fifty three. You did. I will continue to bet over
Speaker 1: in these Raiders games. This defense, it's a bottom three
Speaker 1: defense in the NFL. It's horrific. And Tom, you could
Speaker 1: have got fifty two because it's down to fifty two. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: it is what it is when I bet it. You know,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm not predicting. I like that genuineness. You're giving
Speaker 1: us the genuine stuff. You're not giving us the sugarcoated
Speaker 1: nonsense where Oh, well, you know I bet at it
Speaker 1: too because I always get the best number and all
Speaker 1: that nonsense, so I don't always get never it's a
Speaker 1: lot of Todd on this show today. Today. It's okay,
Speaker 1: it's okay, Todd's Todd's good. There's not enough of me.
Speaker 1: It's like, there's not enough of me. Then you yell
Speaker 1: at me for being too quiet, too much, yell at
Speaker 1: me for being too much. Many people consider Todd Matza
Speaker 1: ball soup for the soul. So it's okay. My best
Speaker 1: bet is the Chiefs the laying three points at at
Speaker 1: New Orleans. I think this awful Philadelphia team really exposed
Speaker 1: and really exposed the Saints lack of ability to to
Speaker 1: be dynamic or move the ball. You know, they miss
Speaker 1: Breeze and they're not going to get him back, maybe
Speaker 1: for two more weeks. He did get activated yesterday. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he will not play, not this week. He will know. Actually,
Speaker 1: I don't think he got activated. I think what it
Speaker 1: was was he got designated to return. Okay, thank you
Speaker 1: for that clarification. Designated practically activated. My producer Jason Connor
Speaker 1: is back here doing a great job. He said from
Speaker 1: the beginning he was like eleven ribs and if punctured lung.
Speaker 1: He said he's never coming back. He still he sticks
Speaker 1: by that. Yeah, he's coming back to the playoffs, doesn't
Speaker 1: think so, Yeah, maybe we'll see. I think that the
Speaker 1: Chiefs will be very focused this week. They had a
Speaker 1: really poor performance in Miami. Look, I am definitely have
Speaker 1: the belief that that if Ryan Fitzpatrick we're playing that
Speaker 1: game for the Dolphins, they would have beaten the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: I mean, too is to is really bad. In my opinion,
Speaker 1: He's a one trick pony. All he can do is
Speaker 1: throw that slant really bad. That's pretty harsh. I think
Speaker 1: he's awful. I think he's I don't think I don't
Speaker 1: think he's an NFL quarterback. Wow. And maybe it's due
Speaker 1: to his injury, and but he's very limited. To me,
Speaker 1: I watched that game. I mean, they had many opportunities.
Speaker 1: My Homes needs to bounce back after a very subpar
Speaker 1: game for him turning the ball over. It's a playoff atmosphere.
Speaker 1: Playing the Saints. This is a prime, you know, a
Speaker 1: great matchup, and I think the Chiefs and Read are focused.
Speaker 1: And I think there if this game was on a
Speaker 1: you know, a neutral field, they're close to a touchdown favorite.
Speaker 1: And I think they go into New Orleans and they
Speaker 1: go wire to wire there. I'm gonna step in line
Speaker 1: here Todd, because that's my number two bed. I'm on
Speaker 1: the Kids City Chiefs to giving three here as well
Speaker 1: as it three consensus tot three. Yes, it's it's not
Speaker 1: like it's not. It's not juice right to. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's not a gilly. I'm sorry, did I win that better? Not?
Speaker 1: It's gone in that direction. Started out at three and
Speaker 1: a half. I actually gone in the direction of the Saint.
Speaker 1: I agree that. In fact, on guessing lines on Monday,
Speaker 1: a show that I do with Chris Andrews from the
Speaker 1: South Point, I guessed four and a half and it
Speaker 1: has gone the other direction, and it just doesn't make
Speaker 1: any sense to me. Mine is more. I just I'm
Speaker 1: not a Taysom Hill fan. Uh. Sean Payton clearly is.
Speaker 1: I'm sure he's a He's what he's overcome has been amazing,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure Taysom Hill, given the opportunity to play
Speaker 1: football more and get more reps, we'll just get better
Speaker 1: and better as a passer. I don't buy him right now.
Speaker 1: The thing that I really buy, though, is that I
Speaker 1: don't think the Kansas City Chiefs. I kind of get
Speaker 1: the feeling that they've toyed with opponents all year. I
Speaker 1: think they're better and and and and you think that's
Speaker 1: the case or no, I don't know. Listen, the fact is,
Speaker 1: almost any other team, if they were continuously winning close
Speaker 1: the way the Chiefs win close week after week, we
Speaker 1: would be saying, you know, this team is very good,
Speaker 1: but why don't they have any dominating victories? Like eventually
Speaker 1: winning close every week is going to come back to
Speaker 1: bite them. Nobody wants to say that about the Chiefs
Speaker 1: because we all subjectively believe that they're just toying with
Speaker 1: their opponents. But what if they really are not a
Speaker 1: dominant like not a dominant team, just the best team
Speaker 1: of this year, but not like a historically dominant team.
Speaker 1: The way people are talking about them, it's they're in
Speaker 1: danger of losing sometime. It's fair, it's a fair it's
Speaker 1: a fair counter you know. I think the difference, and
Speaker 1: it is subjective right that the difference is they're the
Speaker 1: super Bowl champions. I think they're better this year. I
Speaker 1: get the sense that they're better this year than they
Speaker 1: were last year. Pittsburgh, who was a team that, uh
Speaker 1: fit the bill of what we're talking about, a team
Speaker 1: that won close games, put up a dud against the
Speaker 1: Cowboys and got by. Uh, put up a dud against
Speaker 1: pit against Baltimore though, the Robert Griffin game and got
Speaker 1: by it. Yeah, there's a lot of examples with them.
Speaker 1: You knew that they were going to lose football games.
Speaker 1: I don't get that sense with the Chiefs. I could
Speaker 1: be very wrong, but I just it's you know, even
Speaker 1: in the Miami game, they outscored the Dolphins thirty to
Speaker 1: three in the second and third quarter. I almost feel
Speaker 1: like they stepped off the gas. Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe
Speaker 1: it's subjective. Were they were toying with Miami that I felt.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying they do it every game, but in
Speaker 1: that particular game, the game was over. Aaron is right though,
Speaker 1: because Aaron comes from a from a from a metric standpoint,
Speaker 1: there is subjectivity to that for sure. But it's worth
Speaker 1: a bet for me this week, I'll take Kansas City
Speaker 1: BYTUS three. How about Hill when he makes that third
Speaker 1: down in three catch, all he has to do is
Speaker 1: go down, the game's over. Instead, they have to fade
Speaker 1: the whole thing. The on site kick. I mean, everybody
Speaker 1: knows that people are doing it everywhere, not going and
Speaker 1: why would he try to score a touchdown on that
Speaker 1: plane run out of bounds. It's as if they're not
Speaker 1: aware of the context of the game. These players time time.
Speaker 1: That's what I just want to say. I agree with Aaron, though,
Speaker 1: I think they're so dominant on offense, but at the
Speaker 1: same time not dominant at all on defense. In fact,
Speaker 1: I think they might be below average on defense. Well,
Speaker 1: and that's probably why they give up these backdoor touchdowns
Speaker 1: all the time. Well, you agree with me that they're
Speaker 1: below average on defense. Uh, below average in every way
Speaker 1: other than the passing game. Their running games below average,
Speaker 1: their special teams are average, their defenses below average, especially
Speaker 1: against the run. That passing game is keeping everything winning. Aaron,
Speaker 1: do you rate their deference for this year better, worse,
Speaker 1: or the same as their deference from their Super Bowl
Speaker 1: winning team last year? Oh, I'd have to go look
Speaker 1: to see where we had the numbers. I think it's
Speaker 1: pretty similar. Here's the real questionnaire in closing it out
Speaker 1: with the Chiefs here, who is the team in the
Speaker 1: a f C that if you gave the Chiefs truth serum,
Speaker 1: who's the team they'd least like to see in the
Speaker 1: a f C playoffs? In a Championship game Tennessee Tennessee.
Speaker 1: I love Derrick Henry so even more so than Baltimore
Speaker 1: the way they're constructed or Buffalo. Yeah, because with Baltimore
Speaker 1: you feel like they can't really pass on you that well,
Speaker 1: like with Tennessee. You know they can pass on you
Speaker 1: and they can run out. Yes, their defense is garbage,
Speaker 1: So you're going to score against them all the time.
Speaker 1: But you'r Kansas City, You're going to score against everybody
Speaker 1: all the time. The idea is, I think the thing
Speaker 1: they least want to face is Derrick Henry, even though
Speaker 1: Kansas City matches up very well with the Tennessee defense. Yes,
Speaker 1: Tennessee beat them a couple of years ago in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: I think. No, there was that game regular season Tennessee
Speaker 1: beat him with the backup quarterback. Remember that backup quarterback game?
Speaker 1: You know game Errands referring to was our buddy ees
Speaker 1: worst gambling loss ever was the Mariota Andy Reid game.
Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken, eighteen to seventeen? Was that that game?
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe I thought it was. I thought it was
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton. It's a different conversation. I thought that was
Speaker 1: the worst loss there was. Again, I might be complaying
Speaker 1: a couple of games. Todd, what was your first best bet? Todd?
Speaker 1: By the way, I just want to say I was good.
Speaker 1: I was gonna use case as one of my three picks,
Speaker 1: but don't do it to us. Don't do it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: right now, I'm not doing it because I know as
Speaker 1: soon as I do it, that's an automatic. Oh and
Speaker 1: one for everyone as free as a jinx. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: not going to take Kansas City minus three. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take as my best bet the under in the Philadelphia
Speaker 1: Eagles Arizona Cardinals game. And the reason is, and I
Speaker 1: have gil what do you have? As I have numbers
Speaker 1: like forty nine and a half mostly so would you have? Uh?
Speaker 1: I'm efforting that right now. Hold on WiFi is a Jakie?
Speaker 1: Well you effort. I'll give a little update. Burnley almost
Speaker 1: score it on ahead of and that would have been very,
Speaker 1: very not good for both me and Mikey. H'm talking
Speaker 1: about football. What that's not football, that's soccer and Ayen's
Speaker 1: are crazy forty nine and a half Tome. No, wait,
Speaker 1: what game are we talking about again? Arizona Philadelphia? I'm
Speaker 1: sorry I was giving you my England and my Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: He's impressions two different guys watching US soccer here. Anyways,
Speaker 1: I'll take Philadelphia Arizona under forty nine and a half.
Speaker 1: And the reason I'll take it under forty nine and
Speaker 1: a half is I have to think that Doug is
Speaker 1: gonna say, how can we win this game? Conservative, Let's
Speaker 1: protect Jalen Hurts similar to what he did against the Saints.
Speaker 1: Let's not make him do anything. Let's run the ball
Speaker 1: a ton run run, run, run, run, run run the football,
Speaker 1: let that clock go and uh. On the other side,
Speaker 1: Arizona is not really a big over team. I know
Speaker 1: they have Cliff Kingsbury's a coach, but they're not if
Speaker 1: you look at their games, they're not really an over
Speaker 1: team at all. And I think the fact that Doug
Speaker 1: is probably gonna do the same thing. Put Jalen Hurts
Speaker 1: in the in the in the you know, the styrofoam
Speaker 1: padding or whatever, and not allow him to lose the
Speaker 1: game for them really game manage it. It's gotta make
Speaker 1: forty nine and a half to me a little bit
Speaker 1: too high. So I'm gonna go Philadelphia Arizona under forty
Speaker 1: nine and a half. All right, I just want to
Speaker 1: point out two things. One that's just in from my
Speaker 1: d C peeps or texting me. Dwayne Haskins taking first
Speaker 1: team reps with Washington this morning. Oh, I was gonna
Speaker 1: use I was going to use them, and then when
Speaker 1: I saw Clem Haskins, it might be the starter. I
Speaker 1: Cleon Haskins forward Washington bullet I believe back in the day,
Speaker 1: not Washington redskin. I got this d M. This is
Speaker 1: a this DM and Todd is Todd appreciate this? I
Speaker 1: wrote I read this earlier on a Numbers game. Hey, Gil,
Speaker 1: I've talked to you on a all for years, ever
Speaker 1: since the betting Dork days, and I've always been a
Speaker 1: big fan of how you break down an analyze matchups
Speaker 1: and value. I've been recovering from an accident a month
Speaker 1: ago where I suffered a concussion and have been having
Speaker 1: to stay in a dark room to lights which trigger migrains.
Speaker 1: I'm at the end of my recovery starting to feel
Speaker 1: like myself. But over these past four weeks, I've listened
Speaker 1: to all of your podcasts and replays of a Numbers
Speaker 1: game and it's been a major part of my recovery.
Speaker 1: I haven't been able to do anything besides listen to podcasts,
Speaker 1: and it's helped me get through each day. With that said,
Speaker 1: please don't allow Todd to funk up the megapod today.
Speaker 1: My health depends on it. Sorry, I just wanted to
Speaker 1: say thank you. While you've been doing your job, you
Speaker 1: don't know how much you've really helped me rest and
Speaker 1: recovery from my injury. That's dubbin timp. That's that's this
Speaker 1: right here, so he said, Dodd, listen, I can boycott
Speaker 1: this megapod and take it right down the tubes at
Speaker 1: any moment to come in and be the guest on
Speaker 1: this podcast, which clearly has a lot of history. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: it's a roadstate. Feel a little bit like Kendall hit
Speaker 1: Like what am I doing here? Oh? I'm sorry. I
Speaker 1: hope you don't feel that way. It makes me breaks
Speaker 1: my heart. Aaron, you're doing much better than Kendall hint,
Speaker 1: and I've already seen you complete a couple of passes. Alright, Aaron,
Speaker 1: pick number two from you, sir. Let's see here my
Speaker 1: number two pick U bills minus six and a half
Speaker 1: against Denver Saturday, NFL Action Alight Saturday NFL Action have.
Speaker 1: Actually I have mostly six we even better, even better
Speaker 1: minus it on. Clearly the lines that I have are
Speaker 1: little dated. Um, Denver is the number thirty one passing
Speaker 1: game in our numbers, and if you take out the
Speaker 1: Kendall hitting game, they're still the number thirty one passing game.
Speaker 1: Kendall is what you're saying is Kendall Hill. Kendall hitting
Speaker 1: doesn't really affect their ranking that much at all. I
Speaker 1: mean the number one offense. Sorry that the number twenty
Speaker 1: nine passing game. Yeah, they're They're running game has been terrible.
Speaker 1: Lindsay and Gordon are both questionable. Lock was good last week,
Speaker 1: but for most of the season Lock has not been
Speaker 1: that good. Um, their offense is just not working, and
Speaker 1: Buffalo is Their defense has improved over the last few weeks.
Speaker 1: Their offense is good. I really like Buffalo in that game.
Speaker 1: All right, that's the first of the two Saturday games.
Speaker 1: I'm so glad we have Saturday NFL Championship. It's conflicting
Speaker 1: for the active content, Yes, active content. I said in
Speaker 1: the sports book, you can play the audio in the
Speaker 1: NFL games with at the pool we've marketed Championship Saturday.
Speaker 1: You've got to you've gotta stick with the major college
Speaker 1: championship games. So alright, your number two picks, sir, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna give him. No, No, we had no idea. You
Speaker 1: were trying to interrupt Todd. How about for the guy healing?
Speaker 1: Just please be quiet for the guy that's healing. Aaron
Speaker 1: already feels like he was regretting being here, So can
Speaker 1: you take I was trying to bring him in. I
Speaker 1: was trying to bring him into to to a conversation
Speaker 1: about his pick. But if you guys just want to
Speaker 1: ramrod right over him, that's fine, no problem. Ask him please. Okay,
Speaker 1: here was my and it has to do with his
Speaker 1: metric based um scenarios. So here's my question. Hearen Bills.
Speaker 1: I like the Bills too, but I'm a little worried
Speaker 1: that they had this huge win last week. Do you
Speaker 1: take into account like that kind of psychological effect or
Speaker 1: you just go straight by the numbers, because because I've
Speaker 1: looked to try to I've looked to to try to
Speaker 1: account for that. Like you know, if such a psychological
Speaker 1: effect exists, you should be able to identify it beforehand
Speaker 1: say oh, this is a game that's got one of
Speaker 1: those effects. And then this is the result, and I've
Speaker 1: never been able to identify it. So basically, you're saying
Speaker 1: it doesn't really exist. By the way, I'm open to
Speaker 1: that answer, but you're still you Basically, I think it's
Speaker 1: I think it's so unpredictable that you can't use it
Speaker 1: in a prediction. It can't be quantified. It can't be
Speaker 1: quantified as what you're saying, because how in the world
Speaker 1: are you going to say whether this team came off
Speaker 1: a psychologically amazing win versus another team. So basically you're
Speaker 1: saying it may exist, but there's no way to quantify it. Yeah, basically,
Speaker 1: it's like your thoughts on God. Now we can go
Speaker 1: one second. Why don't we go back to the Simpleton
Speaker 1: part of the program, go on to That was an
Speaker 1: excellent question. Every once in a while you run into one,
Speaker 1: nicely done. That was an excellent question. And both games
Speaker 1: are both teams are coming off big wins, aren't they.
Speaker 1: I mean, Denver beat Carolina nicely, right, But I would
Speaker 1: I would I would phrase the Bills win over the
Speaker 1: Steelers in what was Yeah, to me, that was like
Speaker 1: a monster, that was like a Bill's signature win for
Speaker 1: this season. Like Okay, now we've taken on the eleven
Speaker 1: and one Steelers, We've proven we can play with the
Speaker 1: top teams. Josh Allen coming into his own to me,
Speaker 1: that's like a real signature win. Yeah, I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I I just yeah, I've never been able to quantify
Speaker 1: any kind of emotional effect from coming off a big
Speaker 1: win like that number two in a season where I've
Speaker 1: adapted to taking overs in in pro football. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: give it rare under uh and I'm gonna give the
Speaker 1: Dolphins and Patriots game under Todd is it is it
Speaker 1: forty one and a half. You see when we have
Speaker 1: two quarterbacks and Aaron can attest to this, they're passing
Speaker 1: offense is just not good between between Newton and tua Uh.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're dynamic at all. I think the
Speaker 1: defense is the stronger side of the ball on both
Speaker 1: of these teams. Um, I make this number myself thirty
Speaker 1: eight and a half because of the ineptitude of of Tuah.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm really down on this guy. I really are.
Speaker 1: I'm actually not going to test to that our numbers
Speaker 1: like too of this year. And I'm surprised because I
Speaker 1: thought he's gonna struggle, but Miami is something like tent
Speaker 1: in passing and that has continued. It's basically been the
Speaker 1: same with two that it was with Fitzpatrick. That'll get
Speaker 1: your to eight. I just watched watching him play. He
Speaker 1: has one play. All he can do is is fake
Speaker 1: to run and throw the end slant. That's all they
Speaker 1: could do against Kansas City, and then Kansas City got
Speaker 1: into this kind of prevent defense a little bit there
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter where they were just trying to
Speaker 1: two o'clock and let him have some easy throws. I
Speaker 1: think Belichick will take away what he can do. I
Speaker 1: also think you saw Cam Newton obviously struggles. He's still
Speaker 1: he still doesn't have the form he had three years ago.
Speaker 1: And I just think this is a dead under game
Speaker 1: in the humidity in December in Miami. I look for
Speaker 1: this game. I'm not sure who wins it actually, but
Speaker 1: I'm thinking this is more of a seventeen thirteen, seventeen
Speaker 1: fourteen type of affair. I wonder I will say this,
Speaker 1: Brian Flores, who has been by any measure, has done
Speaker 1: a spectacular job. Team that flirted, may not get there,
Speaker 1: but flirted with a division championship this year. If the
Speaker 1: Bills weren't so great. Uh, he does. There is a
Speaker 1: bit of painting into the painting himself into the corner
Speaker 1: with two, right, because if you believe and maybe Flora's
Speaker 1: doesn't believe this, but if you believe that, um, if
Speaker 1: she'd like you to watch her bag, I'm like, she'd
Speaker 1: like you to watch your bag if you believe. So
Speaker 1: what happens when you do a live podcast? Make sure
Speaker 1: that's okay? Then big um Uh. If I'm the one,
Speaker 1: I'm the one who ruins the podcast. Here are absolutely
Speaker 1: I'm just to make sure nobody's walking behind me. I
Speaker 1: I sent my girlfriend upstairs. I don't know if the
Speaker 1: Dolphins have a game to get into the postseason, let's
Speaker 1: say in week seventeen, just to a really give you
Speaker 1: the worst, just to a really give you, uh the
Speaker 1: best shot of winning that do or die game over
Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatrick and I guess what Brian Flores has already
Speaker 1: decided is it's too as long as two is healthy
Speaker 1: and so that that is the one little thing that
Speaker 1: will be interesting to watch. I think that they they
Speaker 1: they put themselves in that position though when they went
Speaker 1: to two earlier in the season. Yes, like the minute
Speaker 1: that he went to to Ah, it was, Okay, this
Speaker 1: is the quarterback for the rest of the year, even
Speaker 1: if we're in playoff contention, this is the quarterback. We're
Speaker 1: sticking with it. Yeah, that's what I mean by sort
Speaker 1: of painting. Maybe, I mean it's my phrase to say
Speaker 1: painted into the corn, painted itself into the corner up.
Speaker 1: But I mean, I think it's not even in the
Speaker 1: last week or two that he's been painted into corner.
Speaker 1: I think from the moment that they switched quarterback. But
Speaker 1: that was Yeah, you're you're right, because I've I've actually
Speaker 1: said it a couple of times a year. I said
Speaker 1: it initially with if they want to get to the
Speaker 1: division Crown. I said it initially. Now it's to get
Speaker 1: to the playoffs. So you're right, it's been a while.
Speaker 1: By the way, she smelled wonderful, didn't she. I only
Speaker 1: smelled the cigarette's That's what I mean. It's it's a
Speaker 1: it's a it's a combination of Marlboro and Virginia Slims
Speaker 1: Special Las Vegas. Yeah, Todd, you're number two. Okay, So wow,
Speaker 1: this week is just so I don't know if you
Speaker 1: guys feel that this week is incredibly hard. But I
Speaker 1: just feel this week is just incredibly and difficult week
Speaker 1: to come up with picks. But um, I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with another under again. You know, um the Niners game
Speaker 1: last week, I had the under with Washington. Um, Nick
Speaker 1: Mollins to me is not in NFL starting quarterback. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go under forty five in the Dallas San Francisco game.
Speaker 1: I think they have to protect Nick Mollins. They've got
Speaker 1: to run the football, and I like San Francisco defensively.
Speaker 1: I think San Francisco, even though they've had all the
Speaker 1: injuries and everything, I still think they're a good defensive team. Um.
Speaker 1: I think they can hold the Cowboys down with the
Speaker 1: red rifle. The beige rifle is Mike calls them. To
Speaker 1: see how how I give big Water right if I
Speaker 1: give credit when Mikey comes up with something, you know,
Speaker 1: really good beige water pistol. I don't think the beige
Speaker 1: water pistol is gonna be able to do much against
Speaker 1: San Francisco's defense. And I really don't think Nick Mollins
Speaker 1: is an NFL quarterback. So I'm gonna go under forty
Speaker 1: five in the Dallas San Francisco game to replace my
Speaker 1: Kansas City pick, which would have led to all of
Speaker 1: us going on and one. How about San Francisco Dallas
Speaker 1: getting flexed out and the Giants and the Browns getting
Speaker 1: flexed in. That's what it is if Kansas City and
Speaker 1: New Orleans didn't exist this week. This is the worst
Speaker 1: set of matchups in any week ever in history. It's
Speaker 1: so bad by the fact that there are teams with
Speaker 1: losing records that are in the playoff race. Yes, correct, Washington,
Speaker 1: Seattle saves it break, that's right, Miami, New England kind
Speaker 1: of uh my number in Minnesota, right, that's right. That
Speaker 1: game a de facto elimination game. My second pick is
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins. That's another one that the line went
Speaker 1: against me. But is this your first pick? Well, I
Speaker 1: I Kansas City. I went in it was number two.
Speaker 1: Just because you mentioned this is number one, number one,
Speaker 1: number one. I don't know what do you have? I
Speaker 1: have minus one one and a half somewhere in then
Speaker 1: minus Yeah, it's a minus one. I think Miami. It's
Speaker 1: kind of teetering between minus one minus one and then
Speaker 1: we'll give you We'll give you the minus one. Hey,
Speaker 1: thanks to what are you watching? Over there on though
Speaker 1: he's watching Burnley and aston Villa against aston Villa, it's
Speaker 1: a tremendous game with a spot of so I don't
Speaker 1: have to I don't have to add much to this
Speaker 1: other than I like Aaron really do kind of like
Speaker 1: to a hear. I'm not that uh bearish on him,
Speaker 1: and I just think, you know, at some point you
Speaker 1: can't usually defensive, the propensity to get turnovers on defense
Speaker 1: is not a predictive thing. But the Dolphins have done
Speaker 1: this enough where to me it's like, no, this team,
Speaker 1: this team absolutely has a knack for this. And against
Speaker 1: the guy like Cam Newton, who has just been awful,
Speaker 1: someone I don't know. I wish I could remember who
Speaker 1: wrote this. This morning, somebody wrote he's essentially an old
Speaker 1: tailback playing quarterback now in the NFL. There's an interesting line.
Speaker 1: I don't have any confidence in the pages that Patriots.
Speaker 1: It's not even I mean Belichick took for them to
Speaker 1: be six and seven is remarkable, I believe, because they
Speaker 1: just don't have the bodies. They just don't have a talent.
Speaker 1: I mean last week against the Rams. That's why I
Speaker 1: loved that Thursday night games so much. The fact that
Speaker 1: Jalen Ramsey and Darius Williams, Jacoby Myers. Who was the guy? Jaleiams?
Speaker 1: You know, I'm sorry, Ahead. I think Cam has been
Speaker 1: better than you're giving him credit for. I think the
Speaker 1: problem is that his receivers are terrible. Yeah, this is
Speaker 1: just a question of bodies. At some point, you don't
Speaker 1: have any players that are NFL restaurant quality. So I'm
Speaker 1: taking the Dolphins. I'm laying the one. I'd like to
Speaker 1: pose a question to Aaron and then Gil you could
Speaker 1: comment on it. Todd, I don't really think you're qualified to.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you five quarterbacks if you were the
Speaker 1: GM of an NFL team, which is can I just
Speaker 1: say one word? Wow? If you were the GM of
Speaker 1: an NFL team, who would you like to have out
Speaker 1: of these five? And in order? Okay to uh, Justin Herbert,
Speaker 1: mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Howell. I don't know enough
Speaker 1: about college quarterbacks to be able to tell you how
Speaker 1: I feel about Mac Jones or Sam Howell. To be honest,
Speaker 1: I don't really pay much attention to them until the
Speaker 1: NFL season is over, and then I look start king
Speaker 1: into the draft. Justin Herbert is clearly number one based
Speaker 1: on what we've seen. Uh And I I am not
Speaker 1: convinced about Trevor Lawrence like others are. And that is
Speaker 1: all about the one championship game last year against LSU,
Speaker 1: Like here was the here we was facing pro players.
Speaker 1: Didn't go that well. So I think he has a
Speaker 1: lot to prove down the stretch of this college football season.
Speaker 1: Everyone's like, oh, the Jets are gonna get Trevor Lombardi.
Speaker 1: Michael Lombardi says, oh, he's leaps and bounds the best
Speaker 1: prospect out there. I'm all disagrees with that, how like
Speaker 1: how he doesn't think how it's get by the way,
Speaker 1: obviously you have to take Herbert because he's a proven commodity.
Speaker 1: You never know about any college athlete before he comes
Speaker 1: in because it's not the same thing. So obviously make
Speaker 1: Herbert number one. But out of all those other guys,
Speaker 1: I like, how to um tell them all that I'm
Speaker 1: with him on that that guy is damn good too?
Speaker 1: Is my number two too? Is my number two on
Speaker 1: that list? That it is such an in a zact
Speaker 1: science projecting quarterbacks from college to pro and usually the
Speaker 1: only ones that Dr Bob would say the only stat
Speaker 1: that really matters his accuracy. But even that, take a
Speaker 1: guy like Josh Allen. He was horrible. He was horrific
Speaker 1: the first two years, and now he's one top five,
Speaker 1: and his accuracy at Wyoming was not good, right, So
Speaker 1: that's why it was like he was predicted the first
Speaker 1: two years, but then he you know, he did this
Speaker 1: camp hold on top May just finished the sentence. He
Speaker 1: the first two years he was awful. He did this
Speaker 1: camp with Jordan Palmer, Carson Palmer's brother, and magically, I
Speaker 1: don't know if that helped him, but one of the
Speaker 1: top five. We've never seen anything like it. Oh, it is.
Speaker 1: It's historically amazing. I mean I don't remember seeing anything
Speaker 1: like it. And if you go back, you have to
Speaker 1: go back into like the seventies, find guys whose completion
Speaker 1: rates increased like that after two bad years. And if
Speaker 1: the thing is if they can do the kind of
Speaker 1: you know, they like filmed his uh, they filmed his release,
Speaker 1: and then they looked at where his feet were, and
Speaker 1: they looked at where his arm were, and they used
Speaker 1: all this technology the way they do with baseball heater.
Speaker 1: If they can do that to improve guy's accuracy, that
Speaker 1: actually opens up to draft a lot more quarterbacks who
Speaker 1: become more draft able than they were before. If you
Speaker 1: can actually fix the guy's accuracy now with that kind
Speaker 1: of computer help, that absolutely would be fascinating. If if
Speaker 1: that's a thing now, Um, I honestly take the gamble,
Speaker 1: I would bet that that Allen is just a massive outfire.
Speaker 1: I think you're probably right, um. But also, so much
Speaker 1: of NFL QB is in the head, So much is
Speaker 1: between the ears, and that's to make the decision fast
Speaker 1: to the right guy. So it's not always Maybe Josh
Speaker 1: Allen was the kind of guy he just needed his
Speaker 1: mechanics fixed and he had the head for it the
Speaker 1: whole time. But there are guys that come in and
Speaker 1: have great like Drew lock is never going to be
Speaker 1: a star in my opinion, because he just doesn't have
Speaker 1: it between the years. And it's hard to tell because
Speaker 1: in college those guys had all their reads to find
Speaker 1: for Yeah, Aaron, you're a third and final Pixer. My
Speaker 1: third pick of the week is the Pittsburgh Steelers minus
Speaker 1: twelve and a half against Cincinnati. I think at this
Speaker 1: point the Steelers have become so overrated. They're underrated and
Speaker 1: I think that the Cincinnati offense is horrific, horrific without
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, just awful. By the last three games. Their
Speaker 1: rating in my numbers over a full season would make
Speaker 1: them the worst offense ever measured ever. If it was
Speaker 1: on on pace, it would be to be the worst.
Speaker 1: What they've done since Burrow went out would be on
Speaker 1: pace to be the worst offense everbotion, How are they
Speaker 1: going for points against the Pittsburgh Steelers? Yeah, jeez, That's
Speaker 1: why I said about the Jets against the Rams this
Speaker 1: week too. How the Jets going to score against that defense?
Speaker 1: I've been betting. I've been betting the team totals under
Speaker 1: on Cincinnati every week and winning pretty easily. But I
Speaker 1: will say this in my Pittsburgh's voice, Mark Malone and
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Stillers of the early eighties would have something
Speaker 1: to say about being the worst offense of all time.
Speaker 1: That team went about four teen games in a row
Speaker 1: with no touchdowns. Aaron's gott are. The worst offense that
Speaker 1: we've ever measured is the two thousand two Texans, and
Speaker 1: the worst passing game is the Seahawks. Now, what the
Speaker 1: Bengals have done Burrow went out is worse than both
Speaker 1: of those. Wow, Now, Aaron, just for giggles, tell everybody
Speaker 1: what the finest team is in all your metrics going
Speaker 1: back to please not not Washington and Rippon, Please please
Speaker 1: not Washington, don't want it is in fact the one
Speaker 1: Washington Redskins and Mark Rippon is the best team in
Speaker 1: our metris. Yes, going back now four Now we know
Speaker 1: idea like Aaron shot now because Ariel he liked before that,
Speaker 1: he liked me before we got back to That's right,
Speaker 1: That's exactly right Aaron and I. I was in love
Speaker 1: with Aaron in ninety four, ninety three, and then when
Speaker 1: I got to ninety one, it was just the romance,
Speaker 1: all right. Do you have like in between seasons though,
Speaker 1: because there are swaths of seasons where teams have like
Speaker 1: their third string quarterback playing and they're even worse. And
Speaker 1: maybe you know what I mean, like you're taking all
Speaker 1: the whole season as all is just measuring the whole season,
Speaker 1: not like obviously there have been offenses that are worse
Speaker 1: than this year's Bengals without Burrow, with other backup quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: I mean, with Kendall Hinton, like that may have been
Speaker 1: the worst offense in NFL history, right, but um, but
Speaker 1: just I'm saying, if if if what they've done since
Speaker 1: Burrow went out was what they were doing for the
Speaker 1: entire year, it would measure is the worst full year
Speaker 1: of offense that we've ever measured. Like the Seahawks in
Speaker 1: ninety two tried three different quarterbacks and they all sucked.
Speaker 1: It's stofer in McGuire and um, I can't remember who
Speaker 1: the third guy was. At least they were all Kelly
Speaker 1: Sfer and Dan McGuire, Mark's brother. By the way, they
Speaker 1: like the Ken. The Kendall h Hinting thing is clearly
Speaker 1: the worst ever because the one pass he completed, he
Speaker 1: looked to the sidelines and let a big smile, just
Speaker 1: knowing what an accomplishment that was. That the guy they
Speaker 1: told him the night before, congratulations, you're now our starting quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: Like I mean, it's not his not at all, not
Speaker 1: at all. Who knows what Kendall Hayton could do as
Speaker 1: an NFL quarterback if you gave him like an entire
Speaker 1: training camp. But that's not what he has if you
Speaker 1: get it, if you gave him a day. I remember
Speaker 1: when the Bear ran Walter Payton at quarterback for a
Speaker 1: little while because they had like a horrendousness at quarterback.
Speaker 1: Four they tried him at quarterback for a little bit. Yep,
Speaker 1: I don't remember that at all. Four. Yep, eighty four
Speaker 1: was the Steve Fuller year, right, Yep. They went into
Speaker 1: There's something, man. I think there too. There was what
Speaker 1: that Vince Evans. I think there's something, man. No, Vince
Speaker 1: Evans is earlier than that. Vin sevens is like they
Speaker 1: were bad at with Vince s evens eighty four Steve Fuller.
Speaker 1: The only game the Washington Redskins of your that the
Speaker 1: Washington football team ever lost in the playoffs at RFK
Speaker 1: Stadium was the eighty four Bears with Steve Fuller. Uh,
Speaker 1: the only time they ever lost the playoff game at
Speaker 1: rf And then they went and lost the NFC Championship
Speaker 1: game to the forty Niners. The Bears in four, that's correct,
Speaker 1: when they ran Guy MC and tied to show it,
Speaker 1: but that was the precursor of the grade eighty five season.
Speaker 1: You're number three, Aaron, How far? How far back are
Speaker 1: you going on these? Are you going all the way
Speaker 1: back to my super stellars? Because in nineteen seventy seven
Speaker 1: people say we didn't win the Super Bowl, but they
Speaker 1: say we were the best stiller team of all time.
Speaker 1: I think it's seventy six that's supposed to be the
Speaker 1: best sealer team of all time, even though that's the
Speaker 1: one that lost to the Raiders. Right now we have
Speaker 1: back to eighty five. It was possible. I'm finishing eighty
Speaker 1: four and eighty three now and then it's gonna get hard.
Speaker 1: It's possible. Here's what I'm saying. It's possible that the
Speaker 1: Mark Ripping lead Washington Redskins are not in fact, I say,
Speaker 1: are not better than the Pittsburgh Stillars, and I date
Speaker 1: seventy six giving them on a friend. No, hair's a
Speaker 1: rocky part. Throw it at the Lynn Swanna, John Stoworth
Speaker 1: with Jack Lambert, Jack hamp Oh, Yeah, it's go start.
Speaker 1: We are going to have to find a lot of
Speaker 1: VHS tapes. Yeah, back to the seventies. I have a
Speaker 1: feeling maybe it Blot that is really your four, that
Speaker 1: is your fork in the road. You just can't find
Speaker 1: the plays, right, you just can't find at a certain point,
Speaker 1: they're just the game books don't exist, and we have
Speaker 1: to find old VHS tapes like we wouldn't have been
Speaker 1: able to do eighty five through eighty nine if we
Speaker 1: didn't have certain games on vhs tap wow, because d
Speaker 1: v O A is is granular. It's every single play, Todd.
Speaker 1: That's so hard to have. Fine, like we already have
Speaker 1: where we're missing one or two plays here or there
Speaker 1: that are missing from game books or whatever. And we
Speaker 1: had to kind of guess by the way, Todd, Mark
Speaker 1: Rippin was sacked seven times all year. Stop it already
Speaker 1: they were. They were seventeen and two in one game.
Speaker 1: They didn't care what the Pittsburgh Spiller defense gave up,
Speaker 1: like one point five points per game. They were incredible,
Speaker 1: incredible mel Blunt. Have you ever heard of that guy?
Speaker 1: They didn't have to play the Buffalo Bills or the
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles. With their Philadelphia Eagles had one of your
Speaker 1: greatest rated defenses that year, to the greatest rated defense
Speaker 1: by far. People like John Madden Gibbs overcame that. Please,
Speaker 1: all right, your number three picks? Where how did the
Speaker 1: Eagles could score a point? Yes, that's where that's true.
Speaker 1: I left that part out. Aaron, Aaron, Where did the
Speaker 1: Cowboys teams in the early nineties rank in that? And
Speaker 1: you're oh, very well. But what's interesting is the forty
Speaker 1: Niners teams. It's almost like I have the wrong team
Speaker 1: number one in most of those years, Like I think
Speaker 1: that the forty Niners are higher than the Cowboys in
Speaker 1: this is for the regular season, and the Cowboys are
Speaker 1: higher than the forty. Interesting because of that that one
Speaker 1: time VENs hold on, Todd, hold on, hold on, Let
Speaker 1: please let the guest finishes coming. That game that you're
Speaker 1: referring to, Aaron, Uh, that San Francisco lost to the Eagles,
Speaker 1: it was like forty one to eight or something like
Speaker 1: that is still to me after all these years, the
Speaker 1: single most perplexing outcome of any regular season game ever
Speaker 1: makes no sense. How did that happen? Yeah? Bizarre? They
Speaker 1: lost to an Eagles team at home? That the Niners. Ridiculous. Anyway,
Speaker 1: you're number three. Sorry, maybe I missed it. What was
Speaker 1: todd second pick? I only have. I only wrote down
Speaker 1: one pick for you, Todd under forty in Dallas against
Speaker 1: I missed it. I do remember part of that. Okay.
Speaker 1: My third pick is the Colts Texans over what's your
Speaker 1: number one? I'm going back to it, Todd. I'm going
Speaker 1: back there at forty four points in the first half
Speaker 1: and two in the second half that they the first
Speaker 1: half is much more predictive of these two teams, and
Speaker 1: how bad the Texans defense has been. The Colts are
Speaker 1: going to go up and down the field like they
Speaker 1: did here at Allegiance Stadium, and you're still not gonna
Speaker 1: hold the Shawn Watson under seventeen. I just I like
Speaker 1: these overs. They're not even really sweats these teams. They
Speaker 1: never forced any punts. The only thing that kills these
Speaker 1: overs is if, like Todd says, you have in the
Speaker 1: nine minute drive with the field goal. Those are the
Speaker 1: only things is when they don't convert in the red zone.
Speaker 1: But they move up and down the field with little resistance.
Speaker 1: They rarely faced third downs these teams do they create
Speaker 1: third downs soft one Todd is at it. Thanks Todd,
Speaker 1: You're third and final. Yeah, and Aaron, before we got
Speaker 1: sidetracked on all the Niner talk and the Redskins is
Speaker 1: the greatest. I just wanted to ask you, do you
Speaker 1: have the Ravens defense in the year two thousand as
Speaker 1: the greatest defensive ever? Because I would contend that if
Speaker 1: you win the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer, no where
Speaker 1: do you have him ring, Well, if it's regular season only,
Speaker 1: they're better if you include the playoffs because they were
Speaker 1: so good in the playoffs. We don't even have them
Speaker 1: in the regular season as the best defense of that year. Wow,
Speaker 1: who was tennis was the best defense of that year?
Speaker 1: What battles those were in the playoffs. It's pretty miracle team.
Speaker 1: That was a music City miracle team, right. Uh. That
Speaker 1: was a year after the Music City's January two thousand
Speaker 1: was the Music City there. But the Ravens the best
Speaker 1: run defense of all time. But against the past, they
Speaker 1: were something like fifth or sixth that year in the
Speaker 1: regular season. Again, they turned it on in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: That's super Bowl against the Giants at that time in
Speaker 1: my life was my biggest bet ever. You had what
Speaker 1: the Giants punt seventeen times or something that they just
Speaker 1: kept pun punt, punt punt. I was like, this team
Speaker 1: is so much better than the Giants to those battles,
Speaker 1: and they would play Tennessee in those playoffs in the
Speaker 1: divisional rounds. They were unbelievable, how but badly they beat
Speaker 1: up McNair and he kept coming. They were always like
Speaker 1: sixteen thirteen games a lot of the Tennessee in Baltimore.
Speaker 1: Heavily adjusted in my numbers for schedule because like Cleveland
Speaker 1: and Cincinnati were terrible offensive, That's right, they were bad.
Speaker 1: Where do you rank the eighty five Bears in terms
Speaker 1: of overall defense? The defense we've ever measured? Number three, Yes,
Speaker 1: eight six Bears or two eighty five Bears gave up
Speaker 1: thirty to Tampa Bay twice. And you know, people think
Speaker 1: about at the end they were shutting everybody out when
Speaker 1: it got cold, but earlier in the year people put
Speaker 1: up yards and points against him. But okay, so so
Speaker 1: number one was the nine Eagles. Number two was the
Speaker 1: eighty six Bears defense. Number three was the eighty five
Speaker 1: Bears defense. That's an interesting point because the eighties six
Speaker 1: Bears defense. People forget after the Super Bowl Shuffle winning
Speaker 1: Super Bowl team. I'm going to security that Bears. That
Speaker 1: Bears team one games like by a field goal thirteen
Speaker 1: to ten every week. They were really bad offensively. And
Speaker 1: I remember when they played the Skins in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: you kind of knew, you were, like, this is an
Speaker 1: accident waiting to happen, but at one point didn't happen.
Speaker 1: That year, it happened to strike season the next year
Speaker 1: against the Skins. Um. Yeah, it's becoming to medicine over here.
Speaker 1: Sorry about that, Um, But that's interesting. So eighty five
Speaker 1: just below the eighties six version of the Bears. Um. Okay, Todd,
Speaker 1: what was your third final? By the way, I could
Speaker 1: talk to Aaron about his rankings of best defense and
Speaker 1: best offense for like a hundred years. What about this team?
Speaker 1: What about that team? What I love doing? I'm so
Speaker 1: looking forward to finishing eight three. And you know what,
Speaker 1: I'd like to talk to a guy like Aaron Shots
Speaker 1: more than maybe say like a general manager who's on
Speaker 1: the radio. I think you'd be much better. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: you know what I want to find out about eighty three.
Speaker 1: Was the Washington offense on in eight three one of
Speaker 1: the greatest of all time? That that's gonna be a
Speaker 1: good question. Yeah, because it wasn't until the ninety nine
Speaker 1: or the ninety eight Vikings, I can't remember what year
Speaker 1: it was where they were they finally clips the number
Speaker 1: of talking about Randy could Pepper to Randy Moss and
Speaker 1: then Gary Anderson. This is the first field goal in
Speaker 1: the history of field goals in the playoffs and they
Speaker 1: lose to the dirty Birds. I believe that was dirty,
Speaker 1: but it was fifteen years before the eight three Redskins
Speaker 1: had that beaten that that mark. That was an unbelievable
Speaker 1: Skins offense. But defense was the Pearl Harbor Crew as
Speaker 1: they called themselves. They were awful. Lost like fifty I'll
Speaker 1: lost forty seven on Monday Night football to the Packers.
Speaker 1: Just amazing. Anyway, Yeah, we can talk historical stuff, but
Speaker 1: it will be here all day. So we can't keep
Speaker 1: uh number three times? That would be great. That's just
Speaker 1: a lot of fun to go through like that. You know,
Speaker 1: this team is number six, this team is number now.
Speaker 1: That's bullshit, you know. Yeah, Okay, anyways, my number three
Speaker 1: I was gonna go with the Kansas City team. I
Speaker 1: already discussed why I can't do that. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: just close my eyes do something scary. I'm gonna close
Speaker 1: my eyes and I'm gonna go with the New York
Speaker 1: Football Giants. Give me the five, gil, is that what
Speaker 1: you have? The five? Four and a half is? Okay?
Speaker 1: Well what you giving me four and a half and half?
Speaker 1: I see a lot of fives, but okay, I see
Speaker 1: what was happening here. Okay, anyways, I'll take the New
Speaker 1: York Football John Alliance. I like this team's defensive football. Now, granted,
Speaker 1: you know there's issues on offense. We all know them,
Speaker 1: we all love them. But you know, Joe Judge, to
Speaker 1: me as a guy, he's tightening, battening down the hatches
Speaker 1: and trying to just will his team to w's. I
Speaker 1: like what they do defensively. Last week was not a
Speaker 1: great week, but it really wasn't because the defense was bad.
Speaker 1: It was mostly because the offense couldn't do anything. And Cleveland,
Speaker 1: you know, it was a great game Monday night. We
Speaker 1: all saw the craziness at the end. By the way,
Speaker 1: I love how they say the pitch back safety thing
Speaker 1: is like, oh, it's the craziest loss of all time.
Speaker 1: It's not the craziest loss of all time. It happens
Speaker 1: all of the time. How many times I personally have
Speaker 1: lost because of pitch backs at the on the last
Speaker 1: it doesn't happen. It doesn't happen in the NFL on
Speaker 1: a Monday night game, or the line is three all
Speaker 1: the time in a game that was forty five to
Speaker 1: forty two, and you know, yeah, no, no, no, I
Speaker 1: agree that was crazy, but I'm saying I can remember
Speaker 1: tons of pitch back craziness on the last play the game,
Speaker 1: in the end of In fact, whenever I have a
Speaker 1: line and I know the other team has like one
Speaker 1: last play, I'm always sitting on the edge of my
Speaker 1: feet seat going, please not with the pitch backs. Please
Speaker 1: no pitch back. And so it does happen. The word
Speaker 1: happens anyway. The fact that the Giants, the fact that
Speaker 1: he spiked it with and their left two seconds, the
Speaker 1: fact that they did the touchback, it's all these things. No, no,
Speaker 1: it was crazy, don't get me wrong. I'm just saying
Speaker 1: it wasn't like we've never seen this before. We've seen
Speaker 1: if you want to see something you've never seen before.
Speaker 1: The ball state game on Saturday with Western Michigan and
Speaker 1: they they were laddering the ball back and forth, and
Speaker 1: then they thought that that their team had fallen on
Speaker 1: the ball. So the entire team ran on the field
Speaker 1: and they kept the play going because he didn't really
Speaker 1: recover the ball, and they ran it all the way
Speaker 1: back for a touchdown. It would have been a win,
Speaker 1: but for there was another penalty that was the craziest
Speaker 1: except except for the fact of the handle of that
Speaker 1: is a fraction of the Monday night football game right, Well,
Speaker 1: of course, of course. But I mean to me, Western
Speaker 1: Michigan against ball Stage is just as good as you know,
Speaker 1: Browns against Kansas City. I'm not one of these guys
Speaker 1: who has like this. You know, if you bet on
Speaker 1: both cities, you've got a problem both state. What my
Speaker 1: third pick is the New York Footings plus four and
Speaker 1: a half. The New York Football Giants football team is
Speaker 1: a fantastic defensive team. Well, maybe that's too far. I
Speaker 1: like their defense. I think they can hang in the
Speaker 1: game at home against the Browns. The Browns had this
Speaker 1: incredible emotional situation and now they've got to go on
Speaker 1: the road and beat the Giants. I could so easily
Speaker 1: see this coming down to the end. Or even if
Speaker 1: the Browns are up late by eleven they give up
Speaker 1: the back door touchdown. Give me the Giants plus the
Speaker 1: four and a half, and I'm not gonna go with
Speaker 1: Kansas City, even though I wanted, what's the what's the
Speaker 1: Minnesota Chicago line that you have? I have Minnesota Chicago
Speaker 1: at the Minnesota Vikings either three minus one or three
Speaker 1: and a half. Right, Well, what's the ruling then if
Speaker 1: you're gonna try to take the Minnesota, you can't take
Speaker 1: Minnesota minus one. So Minnesota minus three and a half
Speaker 1: is my number three pick. I am going to assume,
Speaker 1: and we know what we say about assuming. So I
Speaker 1: am making a leap here that Mike Zimmer and company
Speaker 1: know how to to call plays, not that Zimmer is
Speaker 1: the guy doing it, but that they know how to
Speaker 1: work around the Dan Bailey problem. And so they are
Speaker 1: going to game scripted in game when they're matriculating the
Speaker 1: ball down the field, They're going to keep that in
Speaker 1: mind at all times. And they got to get this
Speaker 1: ball close before attempting field goals. I'm gonna assume that
Speaker 1: they're aware of this. Uh. I just think in the end,
Speaker 1: as great as Chicago's defense has been and showed itself
Speaker 1: last week for instance, I'm I think Minnesota Vikings offense
Speaker 1: to me is far more trustworthy than that of the Bears.
Speaker 1: And so I am going to lay the three and
Speaker 1: a half here and hope that the Vikings play this
Speaker 1: smart and keep themselves in playoff contention. So do this week?
Speaker 1: Did they bring any other kickers in? I didn't follow it.
Speaker 1: I don't think he missed the extra point by twenty
Speaker 1: three yards to the left. Did you see how far
Speaker 1: you point? Aaron? You didn't. He didn't hear that they
Speaker 1: brought in anybody, did they? I haven't seen any news
Speaker 1: of them bringing another kicker. Wow. Yeah, the old vote
Speaker 1: of confidence for Dan Billy Dan Bailey, who when he
Speaker 1: one time he could put the ball like this right
Speaker 1: wherever you wanted it when he was with the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I have a Dan Bailey jersey. When the Cowboys allowed
Speaker 1: Dan Bailey to go away, I was like, I can't
Speaker 1: believe they did that. He's so great. It was really good.
Speaker 1: And now look, the best, the inconsistent unless their named
Speaker 1: Justin Tucker. That's right, unless the name is Justin Tucker, who,
Speaker 1: by the way, missed the Fieldville two weeks ago, got
Speaker 1: one block. Swimmy kicker is very good, too good, very good,
Speaker 1: Justin Tucker light Sanders. Yeah. And then the other one
Speaker 1: is the Chiefs have a good kick. But that's about it.
Speaker 1: Those are probably the three best and three most trustworthy
Speaker 1: kickers in the NFL. I like Raphael s at the end.
Speaker 1: That was good. I like that you heard it Todd.
Speaker 1: You know what kicker you could us the Skins, Chip
Speaker 1: low Miller. That's who you could trust. Now that guy, well,
Speaker 1: they probably didn't have Bring up award. What do you say, uh, Aaron,
Speaker 1: Mark Moseley at his MVP award, Mark Moseley nine and
Speaker 1: eighty two strikes shortened season National Football League m v P.
Speaker 1: What was more impressive for a kicker? Mark Moseley's m
Speaker 1: v P or Sarah Fuller's SEC Player of the Week.
Speaker 1: Why wasn't she kicking off the past week if she
Speaker 1: perfectly executed that squipt kick. I didn't get it, Mark Moseley.
Speaker 1: Memories of my father hugging me at RFK as that
Speaker 1: ball went through the snow to clinch a playoff birth
Speaker 1: against the Giants fifteen to fourteen, looking up boys and girls.
Speaker 1: And he was one of those straight on kickers like
Speaker 1: Dan Cockroft or Don Cockroft. One bar, one bar, helmet,
Speaker 1: straight on, all right, uh. Teaser of the week Aaron
Speaker 1: two team six point Teaser of the week, Sir, I
Speaker 1: like Pittsburgh minus six and a half twined, we've Carolina
Speaker 1: plus fourteen and a half against the Packers. Interesting again
Speaker 1: based on the fact of Cincinnati can't score any points. Second, Todd,
Speaker 1: you have to Todd. Let him Todd, let him explain. Please, Oh,
Speaker 1: it's thirteen, so it would be uh plus, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be Pittsburgh minded seven then right, and Carolina plus fourteen
Speaker 1: and a half. The Packers defense has had a tendency
Speaker 1: to give up points with Leeds latent games to let
Speaker 1: teams come back and make it close. So Pittsburgh and
Speaker 1: Carolina for Aaron, Mike, I was just trying to help
Speaker 1: him with the line, Gil because the line was not
Speaker 1: Please let the guest finish his thoughts and then, all right, Aaron,
Speaker 1: I apologize. I was just trying to help you with
Speaker 1: the line. That's all. Sorry. Just say I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: the Bills down to a pick yes against the Broncos,
Speaker 1: and then I'm going to take the Cowboys up to
Speaker 1: nine wow against the against What up with that? They
Speaker 1: don't have a quarterback? San Francisco doesn't have a quarterback.
Speaker 1: Well they do, but he's not very good. He'll probably
Speaker 1: be right. I'm just I don't know, Todd. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with Arizona Cardinals. Pick Arizona just to win the game.
Speaker 1: I think this Philadelphia Eagles is full god nonsense. I'm
Speaker 1: not a believer, and uh I would like to. I'm
Speaker 1: just having a hard time with the other pick. You
Speaker 1: know what, I'm just gonna go back to the tried
Speaker 1: and shrewd thing that always works green Bay minus two
Speaker 1: and a half. So for me, there are three teaser
Speaker 1: legs that I love, two of the Saturday ones, Buffalo
Speaker 1: and green Bay, and then I like Indianapolis on Sunday
Speaker 1: hosting the Texans. Essentially, Buffalo would be to tease down
Speaker 1: to win against ever green Bay would get it through
Speaker 1: the seven and three against Carolina, and Indianapolis would I
Speaker 1: like that? Yeah, basically to one and a half to
Speaker 1: be Houston. So in the end, you know what, let's
Speaker 1: make it a special Saturday teaser event. Let's just go
Speaker 1: Buffalo in green Bay. Okay, so you're going buffs to
Speaker 1: pick them and green Bay down to two and a half. Correct,
Speaker 1: But I do like your call. I don't say the
Speaker 1: Cults are in a different class of football team in
Speaker 1: the Texans. The Texans are not. Come on, the Texans
Speaker 1: are bad. They're just bad. Every time. You're just like,
Speaker 1: what's DeShawn Watson? Come on, It's DeShawn Watson know they stick,
Speaker 1: but it's like it's like I was saying about the
Speaker 1: Patriots earlier, like the Texans. He doesn't have anybody throw
Speaker 1: to anymore, like he's running out of people. Coute is
Speaker 1: like his leading. You know, but you don't even know
Speaker 1: some of these receivers names in where Chad Hanson is
Speaker 1: like their number two wide out now you know, like
Speaker 1: I don't. What is Chad Hanson ranked in the history
Speaker 1: of anteon receivers? What ranking is Chad Hanson one thousand seven?
Speaker 1: Aaron no ranking? Aaron is not answering the question. He
Speaker 1: refuses to answer. What's the question? Question? I was joking around.
Speaker 1: I said, in the pantheon of wide receivers, what ranking
Speaker 1: was Chad Hansen? The number very low, very low. I
Speaker 1: believe he heard the question. He was acting like you
Speaker 1: did here. Final two. Final two questions, gentlemen, Uh, if
Speaker 1: we had to pick one of the big favorites that
Speaker 1: you felt is the most likely to lose outright, which
Speaker 1: favorite would that be? Will define them as? Should we
Speaker 1: go with six? Let's go with six? This is interesting
Speaker 1: This week six point favorites are Greater Buffalo at Denver
Speaker 1: six point favorites Green Bay eight and a half point
Speaker 1: favorites hosting Carolina. Those are the Saturday games. The other
Speaker 1: candidates Tennessee eleven point favorites hosting We don't know yet
Speaker 1: if it's a Matt Stafford or non Matt Stafford Detroit
Speaker 1: Lions team uh, Tampa Bay six point favorites on the
Speaker 1: road against Atlanta. God, there's tons of these. Indianapolis seven
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at home against Houston, Baltimore thirteen,
Speaker 1: twelve and a half point favorites hosting Jacksonville, Ram seventeen
Speaker 1: and a half, now hosting the Jets, wile it's already
Speaker 1: seventeen and a half, Arizona six and a half over Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: and of course Pittsburgh Monday night thirteen points. My goodness,
Speaker 1: what a week. Thirteen point favorite The chasm between the
Speaker 1: halves and the half nots okay, Todd, you can do
Speaker 1: yours first, you can step ahead of again, and I
Speaker 1: have a lot of I have. Uh. I think the
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons could upset that the Tom Brady's I really
Speaker 1: do the Atlanta Falcons defense, and maybe Aaron can tell
Speaker 1: us about this. I think Atlanta has improved very very
Speaker 1: very much on defense in the last say, eight weeks
Speaker 1: of this season, and I think their defense might even
Speaker 1: be above average. Now I don't know if that's true
Speaker 1: by the stats are ratings since Rockey Morris took over. Wow,
Speaker 1: look at that, see Mikey and I was saying, how
Speaker 1: many weeks? Was I saying Atlanta is getting better on defense?
Speaker 1: I kept pounding you with that. Anyways, I think the
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons defense. Did you say I said you like
Speaker 1: you specifically? It's like I'm the one my Auntireeheyte Morris,
Speaker 1: It's right, No, Atlanta, And I'm just saying, we're just
Speaker 1: saying I kept saying Atlanta keeps getting better and better
Speaker 1: on defense. I really think they're not bad. They're they're
Speaker 1: pretty good deed on defense. Now you have to you
Speaker 1: have to deal with Matt boiling hot water. But you know,
Speaker 1: other than that, maybe they can win the game. I
Speaker 1: I'll take I think Atlanta. I do think there's some
Speaker 1: wisdom there that we we tend to think of Atlanta
Speaker 1: as an offensive team and as a poor defensive team.
Speaker 1: That's not the case. The other one, Aaron is Seattle.
Speaker 1: Hasn't their defense improved as this season has gone on. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I have to run numbers. I happen to have run
Speaker 1: Atlanta for somebody, so it's I've got it on the
Speaker 1: tip of my brain. But Seattle is absolutely improved on defense. Alright, Aaron,
Speaker 1: of the big favorites, who's the most likely to lose
Speaker 1: out right? In your opinion? Todd says it's the Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Bucks. I think I'm gonna go. I think I'm
Speaker 1: also going to say the Tampa Bay Bus. Yeah, because Atlanta,
Speaker 1: because the Atlanta offense could get really powerful and their
Speaker 1: defense has improved. But I mean, our numbers really like
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. But I think of these teams in Atlanta
Speaker 1: as the team most likely to pull it upset Shaws.
Speaker 1: They were not They were not an option. I thought
Speaker 1: there were six point favorite. No, they're five and a half.
Speaker 1: They were not listed. Let you know what, it's a team.
Speaker 1: It's very like I think we should let Mike get
Speaker 1: away with that girl because it is kind of close,
Speaker 1: all right, But you guys didn't have that option, they
Speaker 1: would have still taken the Buccaneers. Would you have still
Speaker 1: taken the Buccaneers? I take I would. If I don't
Speaker 1: have the Seahawks, I'd take the Buccaneers. For me, it's
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. If it's Dwayne Haskins, I'm taking the Buccaneers.
Speaker 1: If it's Dwayne Haskins, I'm taking the Buccaneers. Clim Haskins
Speaker 1: ain't pulling no upset. You know he's still in Minnesota,
Speaker 1: Gold and Gopher Land. Uh in the and and the
Speaker 1: final question, we live in a bizarro world, including tonight's game.
Speaker 1: They're sixteen of them, no one has a buy anymore,
Speaker 1: and you were forced to bet fifteen of them. You
Speaker 1: were forced to bet fifteen of them. But there was
Speaker 1: one game on the line that you want no part
Speaker 1: of whatsoever? Aaron, What's the game you would want no
Speaker 1: part of? Here? Chicago, Minnesota? Chicago, Minnesota, Mikey game you
Speaker 1: want no part of. I don't want any part of
Speaker 1: the Titans Lions because the Stafford situation. I don't know
Speaker 1: if he's playing or not, Todd, I don't want any
Speaker 1: part of tonight's game. I think tonight's game is ridiculous.
Speaker 1: What the hell is gonna happen here? The Chargers? Who
Speaker 1: knows what you get with the Chargers. So I don't
Speaker 1: want any part of this. This charge of Rader nonsense.
Speaker 1: Tennessee Detroit is the obvious one with Stafford status. Uh
Speaker 1: and then again tonight because we don't know if those
Speaker 1: guys are playing on the Chargers yet. But if I
Speaker 1: were to remove those two from the equation, I think
Speaker 1: Baltimore Jacksonville for me, with that number is the one. Again,
Speaker 1: Baltimore is so dependent on game script. Do they fall behind,
Speaker 1: do they go If they go ahead, they could win
Speaker 1: this by seventy points, but if they fall behind, just
Speaker 1: I always worry about them. So I'll just say that
Speaker 1: one because it's a big number. I mean, I'm sure
Speaker 1: they'll win, but by how much I don't know. That
Speaker 1: would be mine. Aaron, speaking of Baltimore, I don't think
Speaker 1: Baltimore and defense is that great. What's your opinion on that?
Speaker 1: We have them a thon defense this year? So that's
Speaker 1: pretty higher than I would have thought. What happened the
Speaker 1: other night was perplexing, wasn't it? Against Cleveland? They couldn't
Speaker 1: get him off the field. They were not defense against Cleveland. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they would lose. They lost a lot of guys injuries.
Speaker 1: They had a lot of guys go out with injuries
Speaker 1: in that game. They did as the game progressed, Aaron,
Speaker 1: where does the Rams defense rank? We have the Rams
Speaker 1: defense right now? Third? Who's number one? Aaron? Number one
Speaker 1: defense is Pittsburgh? Okay, I would rather have the Rams
Speaker 1: defense in Pittsburgh defense. I I Pittsburgh is a good defense,
Speaker 1: but I as a Pittsburgh star or enzer, I think
Speaker 1: they're a little overrated. I'd rather have the Rams. What
Speaker 1: do you do you you really like believe in that?
Speaker 1: Or you do you think Pittsburgh defense Pittsburgh? I mean
Speaker 1: when everybody's healthy, and they haven't been the last week
Speaker 1: or two, right, Joe Hayden was out last week, but
Speaker 1: everybody's healthy. I believe Pittsburgh is the best defense in
Speaker 1: the league. Yeah, the problem. Number two, it's number two.
Speaker 1: Number two is New Orleans. But they wouldn't be number
Speaker 1: two if the Kendall Hainton game didn't take pH interesting.
Speaker 1: So it's basically pittsburgher the Rams. You feel the two
Speaker 1: top defenses? Yeah? And then New Orleans? How about Washington?
Speaker 1: Where do they rank now? Fourth? Fourth? And who's the
Speaker 1: number two? In family feud we're getting we're gonna run
Speaker 1: the board. We're gonna assume you've killed the city. Number
Speaker 1: one in offense, and then who are now three day
Speaker 1: now number one in offense to the city last week?
Speaker 1: And then who's number three? The number three offense right
Speaker 1: now is Tennessee. Okay, Aaron, thank you the founder of
Speaker 1: Football Outsiders. Uh tell the people where they should go
Speaker 1: and get all the stuff a Football Outsiders there, it
Speaker 1: is right on your wall. Well they gotta they can't
Speaker 1: go to your wall though. Football Outsiders dot Com is
Speaker 1: the website check out all of our content. FO plus
Speaker 1: is the subscription product with a big database of all
Speaker 1: the istv o A splits going all the way back
Speaker 1: to five picks against the spread, fantasy projections every week.
Speaker 1: A bunch of stuff we're working on for the off season.
Speaker 1: So Football Outsiders dot Com all right, and Erin, I
Speaker 1: look forward to you and I do are one on
Speaker 1: one on the radio side for a segment after the
Speaker 1: regular season prior to the postseason. Absolutely we do some
Speaker 1: playoff previewing. Man, I apparcially really enjoyed your Out of
Speaker 1: all our guests, I really enjoyed you. Thank you. Definitely
Speaker 1: in the top two, who was who was else in
Speaker 1: the top two? No, I never like to make people
Speaker 1: number one without everybody everybody else tied for first. What
Speaker 1: kind of because I really enjoy the whole rankings of
Speaker 1: the different defenses and stuff like that. That's a whole show. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we could do a whole thing, all that historical I
Speaker 1: love it. I freaking love it now now. But I
Speaker 1: I just never say anyone's a top without thinking through
Speaker 1: all the things. So you're definitely in the top two.
Speaker 1: But I just went to I want to apologize for
Speaker 1: the for the other two people who couldn't even get
Speaker 1: ladies from the back of the round to the thing,
Speaker 1: and they're just a disaster errand so thank you for
Speaker 1: putting up with their really poor professionalism and they're ranting
Speaker 1: and raving against one of the great geniuses of our time.
Speaker 1: Thank you, I'm sure. In Aaron's accomplishments founding Football Outsiders,
Speaker 1: appearing on Late Night with Seth Meyers getting a vote
Speaker 1: now from the Associated Press for all of football's prestigious awards.
Speaker 1: That you're ranking him number two is among his career achievements.
Speaker 1: I didn't know. No, See, that's perfect way to reward
Speaker 1: what I'm saying. I said, he's definitely in the top two,
Speaker 1: which could mean he's number one. It just means I
Speaker 1: haven't thought through all the guests to invariably give him
Speaker 1: number one. But thank you for changing what I said
Speaker 1: in pure UH speak, and and and and trying to
Speaker 1: manipulate what I said when it's not what I said.
Speaker 1: I think stand correctly. I take without doing a deep dive.
Speaker 1: Brent is probably number one in your mind with the
Speaker 1: Amy Colney Barrett discussion. But we had Brent Musburger on
Speaker 1: Aaron and the first thing he did was get political
Speaker 1: on us. It was very uncomfortable. Yeah, pass, yeah, say
Speaker 1: Mike Palm. You U should have seen Mike Palm pandering
Speaker 1: to Brent like you've never seen fer. He looked like
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell. He was unbelievable with the pandering. He was like, oh, Brand,
Speaker 1: Oh I love when you breakfast in bed that one
Speaker 1: time room? What was it like? Oh, by the way
Speaker 1: I love you? Did I mention I love you? Brand? Anyway?
Speaker 1: There was that, Aaron, we appreciate it. We've taken enough
Speaker 1: of your time. I really appreciate. I hope this wasn't
Speaker 1: as painful as it might have seemed to us watching
Speaker 1: you'd endure this. No, I made it through safely. He
Speaker 1: did the rhythm has been has been a I got
Speaker 1: the rhythm, yes, yeah, you have to have a certain
Speaker 1: you know, water off a duck's back and when you
Speaker 1: come on here like ed Fing who just gets right
Speaker 1: into it. HD. Just that's right there. Uh four Mike
Speaker 1: Palm for top wish that have for Aaron Shots, Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for listening. Good luck with all
Speaker 1: your bets in week fifteen. Let's go survivor. Let's get
Speaker 1: through eighty two left. We'll see how many next week.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Yeah,