WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 15 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.160 Check it on Man No Down Man Thursday morning, December 0:00:12.200 --> 0:00:15.840 seventy and Beating the Book podcast a mega pod for 0:00:15.960 --> 0:00:20.960 week number fifteen, Live from the D in Las Vegas. 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.560 Mike Palm conciliary to Derek Stevens over here at Circuits 0:00:24.560 --> 0:00:27.080 Sports UH Live at the D. We're never leaving the D. 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:29.720 We're never going to circu I don't why should we 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:32.559 why this was a built for the COVID area here, 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:36.080 beautifully spaced out table. I still like to come down 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:38.080 here on Sundays and watch football, and this is my 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:41.600 preferred spot. Yes, do you really? I said, Derek, I said, 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:43.479 you spent a billion dollars and you couldn't top our 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:47.559 Canada Mark Canada's where we broadcast live from the d. 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:51.080 UH Todd wishing it from his mother's cork Addict in Pittsburgh, PA. 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.040 With his Pittsburgh Steelers decal behind him is logo, how 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:58.000 you doing, Todd? You're good. I'm doing great. I feel 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:00.600 attacked already, but I'm doing great. I was before the show. 0:01:00.640 --> 0:01:02.720 We Todd feels attacked, but he was really the one 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.920 who was attacking, wasn't he kind of After another visa 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:07.920 appearance this morning, that's sorry. He was on the radio 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:11.040 one segment Big Show. Oh wait a second, Oh, I 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:13.080 was on the radio. I probably came up with something 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.720 that Mike can rebrand and steal and put on Follow 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:22.680 the Money, like let's let's introduce our our rotating guests. 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:24.360 Is kind enough to join us first time ever on 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:26.360 the megapod. He has been kind enough. Aaron and I 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:30.280 have done radio segments on Sirius for many years and 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:32.800 he's been on the podcast before, but never on the megapod, 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:34.920 which is what we do Thursdays, and we've done it 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:37.640 for about a decade. It is the founder, the creator 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:42.200 of the pioneering pro football analytics site Football Outsiders. It's 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:45.080 Aaron Shots. How you doing Aera appreciate it. I'm good. 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:47.240 I'm just trying to get used to the rhythms of this. 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:52.880 That's right. It does have a certain rhythm, and as 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:55.040 a certain rhythm is the new guy. I'm not quite 0:01:55.040 --> 0:02:02.000 sure how it goes. Think it's an outstanding opening comment. 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:04.920 There is a it's very fun. It's very fun loving, 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:07.480 and you know, even though there are a number of 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:10.320 people on this podcast that are not really good people, 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:14.200 I try to work with them. Okay, that's kind of 0:02:14.200 --> 0:02:16.639 the rhythm. It's a syncopated beat, is what it is there, 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:19.040 and it's not really on on measure. It's not four 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:23.720 or four times has its own cadies. It's right the time. 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:28.160 That's the tempo changes all right, So as always the 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:31.320 format remains the same on the show. Let us begin 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:35.840 though with a a update of Circus Survivor contests. Sir, So, 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:39.760 we started with eighty nine entries last week going into 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:45.280 that week, and to begin the season, we're at eighty nine. 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:49.519 If anyone or persons goes eighteen and oh, because Thanksgiving 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:53.120 us its own day, Derrick Stevens adds a million dollar bonus, 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:56.360 which looks very likely, um very likely, so that the 0:02:56.520 --> 0:03:00.560 total pot would be two point three nine million dollars. Uh. 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:03.400 The interesting question last week was that eighty two of 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:07.000 the eighty nine survivors had the Seahawks, who were laying 0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:10.240 close to three touchdowns as it turns out, against the Jets, 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:12.080 and we put numbers on how many of the eighty 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:14.120 two would take it. I said seventy two. You were 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:17.160 right there. Your number was the best of anyone. You know. 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:20.200 It's interesting. Amal Shaw, who plays it very well and 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:23.120 better than others, and Lombardi both said the numbers should 0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:25.080 be eighty two. If the over undershould be eighty one 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:26.960 and a half, how can you not use how can 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:29.280 you not take Seattle? I'm all said, I'd take it 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:30.840 a hundred times out of a hundred, and if they 0:03:30.840 --> 0:03:33.359 lose to the Jets, I live with it, um, I said. 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:37.480 And half ended up being seventies. Seventy six took them. 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:41.520 So in the end, seven entries were eliminated, two nervy 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:45.839 souls who lost with the Carolina Panthers against Denver, and 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:49.600 then uh and then we had five go down with 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:53.760 the Saints at Philadelphia. So we stand with eighty two 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:55.480 now and this will kind of be I think it 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:58.560 starts to be separation weeks these last three weeks because 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:01.520 there's not big chunks of people that have obvious teams available. 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:04.440 So you'll see the picks spread out now. I don't 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:06.840 know if we'll see any upsets though, that's the big question, 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:08.520 but you're right, they will be spread out from now. 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:10.320 And that was the last week where everybody was going 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:12.840 to land on one team. You had a guest on today, 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:17.520 who's who's handicapping which entries have a chance or our 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:19.880 favorite to go eighteen and a right is that correct? 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:24.600 Two he crunched the numbers. Twenty five of the eighty two, 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:27.400 by his numbers, have a better than fifty percent chance 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:30.680 of going the distance of which I am one, and 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:37.200 of which I ranked quite highly. But I wouldn't say that. 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:40.080 I know a shem is listening once again for new 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:43.800 time listeners as him the Hebrew for the name literally 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:47.640 what God, of course is what Todd means by that. 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.440 And Todd feels like a sham hasn't been dead against him. 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:54.080 And the truth is, there really is no childlike God 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:56.560 that people believe in. So I am not of the 0:04:56.920 --> 0:05:01.239 ilk of the people who believe in the childlike type 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:05.160 of God. But anyway, against you, you're gonna lose week 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:08.320 sevent right, That's exactly right. That'll be when you lose. 0:05:08.440 --> 0:05:12.680 And that's the squirrely week, right, no matter no matter 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:16.160 how it's planned out. Now it's time for fast money. 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:18.520 I think that's what that noise means is it's time 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:22.320 for fast money now. I think that, uh, that's the week, 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:26.359 no matter what that spreadsheet says. We're all those of 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:28.640 us who you know, have have planned this a mall 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:30.960 shop perhaps the greatest planner of them all, those of 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:34.120 us who have planned this, there is still you can 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:36.359 plan it as well as you can possibly plan it. 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.360 But when it comes to week seventeen, we still don't 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:41.440 know who's going to be motivated and who's not. Because 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:42.839 the one thing if it's to make the playoffs, are 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:44.240 not to make the ploffs. So one thing to make 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:46.560 the number one seed or not only one seed gets 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.479 the by this year per conference. But well, teams really 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:54.160 care about seeds two through six if they're already in 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:58.240 heading into week seventeen. We don't know two thor seven 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:02.200 if they're already in. Yeah, I want me to give 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:06.839 you the update on how we're doing. Now you've done. Yeah, 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:10.600 little update. Bad week for Gil and Mikey, good week 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:13.479 for me last week, although I will say this, Gil 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:15.960 and Mikey had Atlanta minus two and a half. I 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:18.560 had them a game also minus two and a half, 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:20.479 because I thought, well, we're getting to the end of 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:22.840 the game, and how can Anthony Lynn mess it up? 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:25.040 And the only thing I forgot was that they were 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:27.839 he was playing the Atlanta Falcons, the only team that 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:31.040 could theoretically mess it up more than Anthony Lynn, so 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:34.720 old Maddie Ice, who I call Matt hot water boiling 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:39.000 Ryan through two interceptions in the last two minutes of 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:41.640 that game, the Chargers through an interception back to him 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:44.400 to try to give him the game back. Finally, of course, 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:46.680 the Chargers won, and both Gil and Mikey went down. 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:50.679 So that puts Gil and Mike Gil nineteen and two, 0:06:51.120 --> 0:06:55.000 Mikey at twenty twenty and two, and I'm at one 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:58.039 and one, just barely behind them with a nice two 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.000 in one week. In the teasers, I him way ahead 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.320 at ten and four, Mikey at nine and five, and 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:06.560 Gil at eight and six, So I'm way ahead in 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.480 the teasers. Todd, Why did you say Gil and Mikey 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:11.160 had a bad week? Didn't I go too and one 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:13.600 as well as you? And Gil went one and two? Oh, 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:17.120 I'm sorry, that's right, Mikey didn't go. I bespoke. Mikey 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:19.320 did go to and one with the Colt Raiders over 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:22.160 which was easy Atlanta, which it was was the Anthony 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:25.440 Lynn nonsense, and then the Cleveland Baltimore over, which was 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:28.280 about as good and over as they come. Thank you. 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:31.720 Court stenographer Todd wish Now, court stenographer of the show. 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:33.960 All right, let's beget with the Thursday night game. It 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:35.520 doesn't have to be one of your best bets. If 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:38.680 you have anything to say about the Thursday night game, Um, 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:43.400 Aaron shots our esteemed guest, any any thoughts on this 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:45.440 game from betting perspective? Would you stay away from it? 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:48.920 Anything here tonight? With the Charges in the Raiders, Yeah, 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:50.920 I mean there's a lot of injuries in this game, 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:53.840 so it's sort of like there's a lot of defensive 0:07:53.880 --> 0:07:56.600 players out for the Raiders. But then Mike Williams is 0:07:56.600 --> 0:07:59.400 out and apparently Keenan Allen is her for the Chargers, 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:03.800 And um, I think I liked it better when it 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.720 was Raiders by three than it Raiders by three and 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:08.280 a half. I think it's Raiders by three and a 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:13.360 half now I kind of like Raiders by three. You 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:16.600 do like the Raiders by three. You kind of like it. 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:19.720 It's not the best of the week, but I kind 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:22.040 of like it. We have Vegas twenty two and we 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:25.960 have the Chargers twenty nine. But basically, the difference between 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:28.720 the teams of special teams, I mean special teams is 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:31.560 less predictive than offense. But the Charger special teams are 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:34.160 so bad that you can kind of count on them 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:38.160 doing something bad historically bad by your numbers, correct, Yeah, 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:40.680 second worst special teams we've ever measured. Going back to 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:44.840 think about that, second worst special teams ever back all 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:47.880 the way to and Brother Lynn is a special teams coach. 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:49.839 That's how we got his start in the league. What 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:52.120 you call him Brotherly that I we need to talk 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:54.319 to you about that. I call him Brother Lynn because 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:57.040 one of the No Hyper Bowl segments was Brother Lynn's 0:08:57.080 --> 0:09:04.120 traveling in Aptitude show. Okay, off the b off the 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:06.920 Beatles to mikey Night. Well if I started ripping you 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:09.400 off and then I added onto the the Beatles, the 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:13.160 the Chargers that that end of first half sequence uh 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:16.920 twenty two seconds left uh last week in the first half, 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:19.640 and you're watching this and you're like, is this really 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:23.000 happening again? With Anthony Lennon the Chargers against the Falcons, 0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:27.040 uh twenty two seconds left, clock stop, no time outs, 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.199 third and one at the Atlanta A down seventeen to ten, 0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:31.520 the Chargers run. Okay, maybe they run, maybe you can 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:35.320 still spike it after that, but they don't. Um they 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:37.560 have the clock keeps taking, they have no time outs 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:39.560 with about nine seconds left, they decided to rush the 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:41.880 field goal unit on. They rushed the field goal unit 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:43.679 out on instead of taking a shot at the end zone, 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:45.360 which they had time for. Of course, they don't get 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.240 off the twenty five yards. So what ends up happening 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:50.000 is clock goes to zero, but they have uh, you know, 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:53.640 guys on offense lollygagging off the field. Field will unit 0:09:53.720 --> 0:09:56.400 going on the field. Even if it goes in in time, 0:09:56.840 --> 0:09:58.640 it's too many men on the field, it doesn't count. 0:09:58.840 --> 0:10:01.000 It's amazing. They couldn't bike it because it was third 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:02.840 and one, so when they didn't make the first down, 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:05.840 they lost that option. That's correct. That is correct. Once again, 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:08.440 Anthony Lynn is yelling at his offensive coordinator on the 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:10.640 sideline about a run call, the same thing that he 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:13.720 says in in Buffalo. It's horrible communication. When they ran 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:16.080 the ball after the hail Mary and the live clock. 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:18.360 I mean, no plays go through him. He doesn't have 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:20.800 approval on any of the play calling. He doesn't speak 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:23.400 to the team before the game. I'm just not sure 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:26.479 why the Spano's family is so in love with this guy. 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:28.320 I don't know. They may keep him, by the way, 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:31.640 Uh I'm with Aaron, no pre flop play on this 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:35.679 for me tonight. Brian Bulaga is out. Uh, you have Perryman, Natteralie. 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:38.120 But the real thing is on offense. As Aaron indicated, 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:41.960 Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, all of them questionable. 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:44.760 Did you hear Williams is out out far? Is he? Definitely? 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.440 What I've seen is that Williams out Wow, and then 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:50.520 the Raiders will be missing Jonathan Abram, Damon, Ornette Cleveland, Ferrell, 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:53.880 Nicholas Moreau. So you have Nicholas Morrow. So you have this. 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:56.360 You don't know who's playing. First of all, if you 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:59.560 knew that those Chargers were playing, namely Ekeler and Allen, 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.360 maybe you pound the Charges without Without that knowledge, this 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:04.080 is a lot. This is an in game bet for me, 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:06.040 no pre flop if I don't know who's playing for 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:09.560 the Chargers until I know that's anything to add Todd 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:12.000 or Mike on that. Nothing on tonight to me, it's 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:14.520 just in game. I just want to You know, one 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.400 thing everyone should know about Raiders game. Is there anyone 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.400 more in love with the field goal than John Gruden. 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:24.760 The guy loves thirteen play drives, thirteen plays, six and 0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:26.800 a half minute drives that end on a fourth and 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:29.480 two at the twenty three and then trots out the 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:33.000 field goal team. I mean, John, why don't you pay 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:37.360 attention to people like Aaron Shots, who is obviously, you know, 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:40.920 a metrics and analytic guy. One thing I will say 0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:44.080 about metrics and analytics is they've made it. Everyone realized 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:46.840 that you gotta go for it on fourth down, and 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:48.960 even on third and nine. Maybe run a play that 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:51.040 gets you to fourth and three so that you can 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:54.040 go for it on fourth down. But John Gruden seems 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:58.400 in love, absolutely in love with driving at sixty seven 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:01.840 yards down the field and then in old football coach parlance, saying, 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:03.720 I'm like, well, we've got to get some points out 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:05.720 of this drive, you know, you know, with game all 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.160 they're done here, We've gotta get some point. That to 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.480 me is just insanity. Even though I like what John 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.600 grun is doing, I don't understand why it's in so 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:15.439 love with he's so much love with the field goal. 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:17.000 I don't know if you guys have noticed this, but 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.040 I thought you're gonna be different. I thought you're gonna 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:21.120 be a different way with that he has. There have 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:24.160 been closes games at least one time this year where 0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:27.440 he decided to kick a really long fifty plus yard 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:31.040 or in a in a risk reward situation where if 0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:34.720 they miss it it costs them the game. But that too, Yeah, 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:38.959 that too, those are the times. Yeah, you guys noticed, 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:43.360 Do you guys notice the the incredible amount of long 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:45.480 drives that end in a field goal for the Raiders. 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:47.040 I don't know if you guys have noticed. There have 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:49.240 been a lot of pieces this week, you know, randomly 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:50.920 where it's like the Raiders the toughest team to figure 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:52.720 out in football, because they they played so well against 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:54.880 the Chiefs twice, having beaten them once and flirted with 0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:56.839 beating him a second time. And then they barely beat 0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:59.080 the Jets, and we beat the Jets on a miracle. Aaron, 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.000 you you do a great job of talking about the 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:03.839 teams that are most consistent week to week this year 0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:06.000 and the teams that are the most volatile. Are the 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:10.280 Raiders up there in volatility from week to week performance. Yeah, 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:12.360 they're not near the top of the league because they 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.320 haven't had like the one great or one terrible performance, 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:18.560 but they're they're pretty volatile. Matt Rule from Carolina, by 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.400 the way, has done a lot of that this year, 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:23.360 where he keeps bringing on Joey Slide for these ridiculously 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:26.480 log field goals instead of going for it on fourth down. Yeah, 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:29.120 the risk reward some coaches don't don't seem to get that, Aaron. 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.880 Let's start with the best bets. Uh, let's get your 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:35.880 first best bet of the week, sir, sure, let's see. 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:38.320 My first best bet of the week is the Jacksonville 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:45.120 Jaguars plus thirteen and a half at Baltimore. All right, um, 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:49.440 and your thoughts as to why they're well, you know, 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:52.360 the Ravens are really good on defense and special teams, 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.480 but again in the Jaguars are our last place defense 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:58.320 right now. But again, like for predicting the future, offense 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:01.679 is better than defense. Shoe has been much better than 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:07.400 Glennon or especially Jake Luton for the Jaguars. And so 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:11.400 if you look at passing d v o A, which 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:14.600 is our our passing metric, you take out the week 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.040 twelve game where Robert Griffin started for the Ravens, you 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.960 still you end up with minus six percent for jackson uh, 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:23.960 and minus eleven percent from Mishoe. So they're not that 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.400 far off from each other. Now the defense is obviously 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:28.640 that's a big gap. But thirteen and a half is 0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:31.320 a big line. I mean, I think that's comfortable. How 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:35.480 how's thirteen? I see thirteen CONCESSI you'll still take the thirteen? Yeah, 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:37.400 I would still take the thirteen. Okay, Todd, is that 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:40.960 what you say? Thirteen concesses? Yeah? I see consensus. Okay, 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:43.680 Mikey your first best bet, sir. I did want to 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:46.480 mention I do have a play on the Thursday night game, 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:48.640 not in this, but I did bet the game over 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:51.440 fifty three. You did. I will continue to bet over 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:54.880 in these Raiders games. This defense, it's a bottom three 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:58.560 defense in the NFL. It's horrific. And Tom, you could 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.760 have got fifty two because it's down to fifty two. Yeah, well, 0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:03.640 it is what it is when I bet it. You know, 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:07.800 I'm I'm not predicting. I like that genuineness. You're giving 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:11.120 us the genuine stuff. You're not giving us the sugarcoated 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:13.400 nonsense where Oh, well, you know I bet at it 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:15.840 too because I always get the best number and all 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:18.720 that nonsense, so I don't always get never it's a 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.000 lot of Todd on this show today. Today. It's okay, 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.600 it's okay, Todd's Todd's good. There's not enough of me. 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:26.800 It's like, there's not enough of me. Then you yell 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:29.920 at me for being too quiet, too much, yell at 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:32.640 me for being too much. Many people consider Todd Matza 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:36.320 ball soup for the soul. So it's okay. My best 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:39.440 bet is the Chiefs the laying three points at at 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:44.440 New Orleans. I think this awful Philadelphia team really exposed 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:48.200 and really exposed the Saints lack of ability to to 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:51.920 be dynamic or move the ball. You know, they miss 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:54.280 Breeze and they're not going to get him back, maybe 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:58.000 for two more weeks. He did get activated yesterday. Yeah, 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:01.680 he will not play, not this week. He will know. Actually, 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:03.480 I don't think he got activated. I think what it 0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:07.200 was was he got designated to return. Okay, thank you 0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:11.880 for that clarification. Designated practically activated. My producer Jason Connor 0:16:11.960 --> 0:16:13.920 is back here doing a great job. He said from 0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:17.240 the beginning he was like eleven ribs and if punctured lung. 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:20.160 He said he's never coming back. He still he sticks 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:23.360 by that. Yeah, he's coming back to the playoffs, doesn't 0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:26.680 think so, Yeah, maybe we'll see. I think that the 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:28.720 Chiefs will be very focused this week. They had a 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:33.320 really poor performance in Miami. Look, I am definitely have 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:37.080 the belief that that if Ryan Fitzpatrick we're playing that 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.040 game for the Dolphins, they would have beaten the Chiefs. 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.280 I mean, too is to is really bad. In my opinion, 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:43.960 He's a one trick pony. All he can do is 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:47.160 throw that slant really bad. That's pretty harsh. I think 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:49.480 he's awful. I think he's I don't think I don't 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:53.000 think he's an NFL quarterback. Wow. And maybe it's due 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:56.320 to his injury, and but he's very limited. To me, 0:16:56.360 --> 0:16:58.920 I watched that game. I mean, they had many opportunities. 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:01.960 My Homes needs to bounce back after a very subpar 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:05.560 game for him turning the ball over. It's a playoff atmosphere. 0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.240 Playing the Saints. This is a prime, you know, a 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:11.120 great matchup, and I think the Chiefs and Read are focused. 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.200 And I think there if this game was on a 0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:15.919 you know, a neutral field, they're close to a touchdown favorite. 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:17.679 And I think they go into New Orleans and they 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:19.560 go wire to wire there. I'm gonna step in line 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:21.439 here Todd, because that's my number two bed. I'm on 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:23.719 the Kids City Chiefs to giving three here as well 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:28.600 as it three consensus tot three. Yes, it's it's not 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:32.080 like it's not. It's not juice right to. I mean, 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.680 it's not a gilly. I'm sorry, did I win that better? Not? 0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:40.280 It's gone in that direction. Started out at three and 0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:42.720 a half. I actually gone in the direction of the Saint. 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:45.280 I agree that. In fact, on guessing lines on Monday, 0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:46.879 a show that I do with Chris Andrews from the 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:49.919 South Point, I guessed four and a half and it 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:52.520 has gone the other direction, and it just doesn't make 0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:55.720 any sense to me. Mine is more. I just I'm 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:59.520 not a Taysom Hill fan. Uh. Sean Payton clearly is. 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.840 I'm sure he's a He's what he's overcome has been amazing, 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:05.320 and I'm sure Taysom Hill, given the opportunity to play 0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:07.840 football more and get more reps, we'll just get better 0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:11.640 and better as a passer. I don't buy him right now. 0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:13.760 The thing that I really buy, though, is that I 0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:15.680 don't think the Kansas City Chiefs. I kind of get 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:19.320 the feeling that they've toyed with opponents all year. I 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:22.960 think they're better and and and and you think that's 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:26.960 the case or no, I don't know. Listen, the fact is, 0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:30.800 almost any other team, if they were continuously winning close 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:33.359 the way the Chiefs win close week after week, we 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:36.160 would be saying, you know, this team is very good, 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:39.359 but why don't they have any dominating victories? Like eventually 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:41.119 winning close every week is going to come back to 0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:43.959 bite them. Nobody wants to say that about the Chiefs 0:18:44.000 --> 0:18:47.320 because we all subjectively believe that they're just toying with 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:50.800 their opponents. But what if they really are not a 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:53.400 dominant like not a dominant team, just the best team 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:55.760 of this year, but not like a historically dominant team. 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:58.119 The way people are talking about them, it's they're in 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:03.680 danger of losing sometime. It's fair, it's a fair it's 0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:08.240 a fair counter you know. I think the difference, and 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:10.920 it is subjective right that the difference is they're the 0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:13.159 super Bowl champions. I think they're better this year. I 0:19:13.200 --> 0:19:14.840 get the sense that they're better this year than they 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.760 were last year. Pittsburgh, who was a team that, uh 0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:19.640 fit the bill of what we're talking about, a team 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:22.480 that won close games, put up a dud against the 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:25.640 Cowboys and got by. Uh, put up a dud against 0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:28.720 pit against Baltimore though, the Robert Griffin game and got 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:31.440 by it. Yeah, there's a lot of examples with them. 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:34.320 You knew that they were going to lose football games. 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:36.560 I don't get that sense with the Chiefs. I could 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:38.920 be very wrong, but I just it's you know, even 0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:42.040 in the Miami game, they outscored the Dolphins thirty to 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:45.280 three in the second and third quarter. I almost feel 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:47.400 like they stepped off the gas. Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe 0:19:47.400 --> 0:19:51.120 it's subjective. Were they were toying with Miami that I felt. 0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:54.800 I'm not saying they do it every game, but in 0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:59.080 that particular game, the game was over. Aaron is right though, 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:01.600 because Aaron comes from a from a from a metric standpoint, 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:05.160 there is subjectivity to that for sure. But it's worth 0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:07.000 a bet for me this week, I'll take Kansas City 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:09.400 BYTUS three. How about Hill when he makes that third 0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:10.960 down in three catch, all he has to do is 0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:13.560 go down, the game's over. Instead, they have to fade 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:15.880 the whole thing. The on site kick. I mean, everybody 0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:18.000 knows that people are doing it everywhere, not going and 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:19.720 why would he try to score a touchdown on that 0:20:19.720 --> 0:20:21.560 plane run out of bounds. It's as if they're not 0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:25.320 aware of the context of the game. These players time time. 0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:28.840 That's what I just want to say. I agree with Aaron, though, 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:31.639 I think they're so dominant on offense, but at the 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:33.920 same time not dominant at all on defense. In fact, 0:20:33.960 --> 0:20:36.240 I think they might be below average on defense. Well, 0:20:36.280 --> 0:20:39.200 and that's probably why they give up these backdoor touchdowns 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:41.000 all the time. Well, you agree with me that they're 0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:45.879 below average on defense. Uh, below average in every way 0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:48.840 other than the passing game. Their running games below average, 0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:52.640 their special teams are average, their defenses below average, especially 0:20:52.680 --> 0:20:58.240 against the run. That passing game is keeping everything winning. Aaron, 0:20:58.359 --> 0:21:02.480 do you rate their deference for this year better, worse, 0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:04.560 or the same as their deference from their Super Bowl 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.560 winning team last year? Oh, I'd have to go look 0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:09.360 to see where we had the numbers. I think it's 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:12.239 pretty similar. Here's the real questionnaire in closing it out 0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:14.520 with the Chiefs here, who is the team in the 0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:17.880 a f C that if you gave the Chiefs truth serum, 0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:20.159 who's the team they'd least like to see in the 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:24.920 a f C playoffs? In a Championship game Tennessee Tennessee. 0:21:25.840 --> 0:21:29.800 I love Derrick Henry so even more so than Baltimore 0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:34.919 the way they're constructed or Buffalo. Yeah, because with Baltimore 0:21:35.000 --> 0:21:37.200 you feel like they can't really pass on you that well, 0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:39.320 like with Tennessee. You know they can pass on you 0:21:39.359 --> 0:21:41.760 and they can run out. Yes, their defense is garbage, 0:21:41.760 --> 0:21:43.440 So you're going to score against them all the time. 0:21:43.520 --> 0:21:46.120 But you'r Kansas City, You're going to score against everybody 0:21:46.160 --> 0:21:48.800 all the time. The idea is, I think the thing 0:21:48.840 --> 0:21:51.480 they least want to face is Derrick Henry, even though 0:21:51.560 --> 0:21:55.480 Kansas City matches up very well with the Tennessee defense. Yes, 0:21:55.560 --> 0:21:59.679 Tennessee beat them a couple of years ago in the playoffs. 0:21:59.680 --> 0:22:03.360 I think. No, there was that game regular season Tennessee 0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:07.080 beat him with the backup quarterback. Remember that backup quarterback game? 0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:10.000 You know game Errands referring to was our buddy ees 0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:13.359 worst gambling loss ever was the Mariota Andy Reid game. 0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:16.720 If I'm not mistaken, eighteen to seventeen? Was that that game? 0:22:17.200 --> 0:22:19.399 Maybe maybe I thought it was. I thought it was 0:22:19.480 --> 0:22:24.040 Hillary Clinton. It's a different conversation. I thought that was 0:22:24.080 --> 0:22:27.160 the worst loss there was. Again, I might be complaying 0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:29.840 a couple of games. Todd, what was your first best bet? Todd? 0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:32.600 By the way, I just want to say I was good. 0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:35.000 I was gonna use case as one of my three picks, 0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:38.520 but don't do it to us. Don't do it. Yeah, 0:22:40.119 --> 0:22:42.480 right now, I'm not doing it because I know as 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:44.280 soon as I do it, that's an automatic. Oh and 0:22:44.359 --> 0:22:47.880 one for everyone as free as a jinx. Yeah, I'm 0:22:47.920 --> 0:22:50.280 not going to take Kansas City minus three. I'm gonna 0:22:50.320 --> 0:22:54.120 take as my best bet the under in the Philadelphia 0:22:54.200 --> 0:22:58.399 Eagles Arizona Cardinals game. And the reason is, and I 0:22:58.480 --> 0:23:00.679 have gil what do you have? As I have numbers 0:23:00.680 --> 0:23:04.040 like forty nine and a half mostly so would you have? Uh? 0:23:04.200 --> 0:23:06.800 I'm efforting that right now. Hold on WiFi is a Jakie? 0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:10.280 Well you effort. I'll give a little update. Burnley almost 0:23:10.320 --> 0:23:12.720 score it on ahead of and that would have been very, 0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:17.399 very not good for both me and Mikey. H'm talking 0:23:17.440 --> 0:23:20.840 about football. What that's not football, that's soccer and Ayen's 0:23:20.880 --> 0:23:23.880 are crazy forty nine and a half Tome. No, wait, 0:23:23.880 --> 0:23:29.520 what game are we talking about again? Arizona Philadelphia? I'm 0:23:29.560 --> 0:23:31.760 sorry I was giving you my England and my Pittsburgh. 0:23:31.800 --> 0:23:35.240 He's impressions two different guys watching US soccer here. Anyways, 0:23:35.240 --> 0:23:38.800 I'll take Philadelphia Arizona under forty nine and a half. 0:23:39.200 --> 0:23:40.840 And the reason I'll take it under forty nine and 0:23:40.840 --> 0:23:44.879 a half is I have to think that Doug is 0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:49.160 gonna say, how can we win this game? Conservative, Let's 0:23:49.200 --> 0:23:52.159 protect Jalen Hurts similar to what he did against the Saints. 0:23:52.280 --> 0:23:54.560 Let's not make him do anything. Let's run the ball 0:23:54.600 --> 0:23:58.480 a ton run run, run, run, run, run run the football, 0:23:58.920 --> 0:24:01.800 let that clock go and uh. On the other side, 0:24:01.840 --> 0:24:04.639 Arizona is not really a big over team. I know 0:24:04.680 --> 0:24:06.560 they have Cliff Kingsbury's a coach, but they're not if 0:24:06.600 --> 0:24:08.800 you look at their games, they're not really an over 0:24:08.840 --> 0:24:11.120 team at all. And I think the fact that Doug 0:24:11.200 --> 0:24:14.439 is probably gonna do the same thing. Put Jalen Hurts 0:24:14.440 --> 0:24:17.880 in the in the in the you know, the styrofoam 0:24:17.960 --> 0:24:20.280 padding or whatever, and not allow him to lose the 0:24:20.280 --> 0:24:23.920 game for them really game manage it. It's gotta make 0:24:24.000 --> 0:24:25.760 forty nine and a half to me a little bit 0:24:25.800 --> 0:24:29.119 too high. So I'm gonna go Philadelphia Arizona under forty 0:24:29.200 --> 0:24:30.880 nine and a half. All right, I just want to 0:24:31.000 --> 0:24:33.240 point out two things. One that's just in from my 0:24:33.359 --> 0:24:37.000 d C peeps or texting me. Dwayne Haskins taking first 0:24:37.040 --> 0:24:41.600 team reps with Washington this morning. Oh, I was gonna 0:24:41.680 --> 0:24:43.159 use I was going to use them, and then when 0:24:43.200 --> 0:24:45.879 I saw Clem Haskins, it might be the starter. I 0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:51.280 Cleon Haskins forward Washington bullet I believe back in the day, 0:24:51.359 --> 0:24:54.159 not Washington redskin. I got this d M. This is 0:24:54.200 --> 0:24:57.080 a this DM and Todd is Todd appreciate this? I 0:24:56.840 --> 0:24:59.040 wrote I read this earlier on a Numbers game. Hey, Gil, 0:24:59.080 --> 0:25:00.760 I've talked to you on a all for years, ever 0:25:00.760 --> 0:25:03.119 since the betting Dork days, and I've always been a 0:25:03.119 --> 0:25:05.040 big fan of how you break down an analyze matchups 0:25:05.040 --> 0:25:07.280 and value. I've been recovering from an accident a month 0:25:07.280 --> 0:25:09.639 ago where I suffered a concussion and have been having 0:25:09.640 --> 0:25:12.640 to stay in a dark room to lights which trigger migrains. 0:25:12.800 --> 0:25:14.600 I'm at the end of my recovery starting to feel 0:25:14.600 --> 0:25:16.960 like myself. But over these past four weeks, I've listened 0:25:17.000 --> 0:25:18.720 to all of your podcasts and replays of a Numbers 0:25:18.760 --> 0:25:20.760 game and it's been a major part of my recovery. 0:25:20.920 --> 0:25:23.640 I haven't been able to do anything besides listen to podcasts, 0:25:23.680 --> 0:25:25.840 and it's helped me get through each day. With that said, 0:25:25.880 --> 0:25:28.359 please don't allow Todd to funk up the megapod today. 0:25:28.520 --> 0:25:31.840 My health depends on it. Sorry, I just wanted to 0:25:31.840 --> 0:25:33.440 say thank you. While you've been doing your job, you 0:25:33.440 --> 0:25:35.040 don't know how much you've really helped me rest and 0:25:35.119 --> 0:25:38.760 recovery from my injury. That's dubbin timp. That's that's this 0:25:38.920 --> 0:25:43.280 right here, so he said, Dodd, listen, I can boycott 0:25:43.359 --> 0:25:45.600 this megapod and take it right down the tubes at 0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:50.119 any moment to come in and be the guest on 0:25:50.160 --> 0:25:53.880 this podcast, which clearly has a lot of history. I'm sorry, 0:25:54.080 --> 0:25:56.320 it's a roadstate. Feel a little bit like Kendall hit 0:25:56.640 --> 0:25:59.280 Like what am I doing here? Oh? I'm sorry. I 0:25:59.320 --> 0:26:02.119 hope you don't feel that way. It makes me breaks 0:26:02.160 --> 0:26:06.800 my heart. Aaron, you're doing much better than Kendall hint, 0:26:06.800 --> 0:26:10.720 and I've already seen you complete a couple of passes. Alright, Aaron, 0:26:10.760 --> 0:26:14.639 pick number two from you, sir. Let's see here my 0:26:14.800 --> 0:26:18.520 number two pick U bills minus six and a half 0:26:20.280 --> 0:26:25.159 against Denver Saturday, NFL Action Alight Saturday NFL Action have. 0:26:25.800 --> 0:26:29.840 Actually I have mostly six we even better, even better 0:26:29.880 --> 0:26:34.400 minus it on. Clearly the lines that I have are 0:26:34.440 --> 0:26:38.800 little dated. Um, Denver is the number thirty one passing 0:26:38.800 --> 0:26:40.760 game in our numbers, and if you take out the 0:26:40.840 --> 0:26:44.600 Kendall hitting game, they're still the number thirty one passing game. 0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:50.960 Kendall is what you're saying is Kendall Hill. Kendall hitting 0:26:51.040 --> 0:26:54.000 doesn't really affect their ranking that much at all. I 0:26:54.000 --> 0:26:56.320 mean the number one offense. Sorry that the number twenty 0:26:56.400 --> 0:26:59.080 nine passing game. Yeah, they're They're running game has been terrible. 0:26:59.480 --> 0:27:04.240 Lindsay and Gordon are both questionable. Lock was good last week, 0:27:04.480 --> 0:27:06.480 but for most of the season Lock has not been 0:27:06.520 --> 0:27:10.119 that good. Um, their offense is just not working, and 0:27:10.200 --> 0:27:13.200 Buffalo is Their defense has improved over the last few weeks. 0:27:13.240 --> 0:27:16.560 Their offense is good. I really like Buffalo in that game. 0:27:16.760 --> 0:27:18.720 All right, that's the first of the two Saturday games. 0:27:18.720 --> 0:27:23.520 I'm so glad we have Saturday NFL Championship. It's conflicting 0:27:23.560 --> 0:27:27.719 for the active content, Yes, active content. I said in 0:27:27.760 --> 0:27:29.560 the sports book, you can play the audio in the 0:27:29.640 --> 0:27:33.480 NFL games with at the pool we've marketed Championship Saturday. 0:27:33.520 --> 0:27:35.720 You've got to you've gotta stick with the major college 0:27:35.800 --> 0:27:38.840 championship games. So alright, your number two picks, sir, I'm 0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:41.879 gonna give him. No, No, we had no idea. You 0:27:41.920 --> 0:27:44.480 were trying to interrupt Todd. How about for the guy healing? 0:27:44.640 --> 0:27:47.080 Just please be quiet for the guy that's healing. Aaron 0:27:47.160 --> 0:27:49.600 already feels like he was regretting being here, So can 0:27:49.640 --> 0:27:52.520 you take I was trying to bring him in. I 0:27:52.560 --> 0:27:54.840 was trying to bring him into to to a conversation 0:27:54.880 --> 0:27:56.520 about his pick. But if you guys just want to 0:27:56.800 --> 0:28:01.240 ramrod right over him, that's fine, no problem. Ask him please. Okay, 0:28:01.280 --> 0:28:02.800 here was my and it has to do with his 0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:07.919 metric based um scenarios. So here's my question. Hearen Bills. 0:28:08.160 --> 0:28:10.000 I like the Bills too, but I'm a little worried 0:28:10.000 --> 0:28:13.320 that they had this huge win last week. Do you 0:28:13.440 --> 0:28:17.639 take into account like that kind of psychological effect or 0:28:17.680 --> 0:28:21.440 you just go straight by the numbers, because because I've 0:28:21.480 --> 0:28:24.000 looked to try to I've looked to to try to 0:28:24.400 --> 0:28:27.960 account for that. Like you know, if such a psychological 0:28:28.000 --> 0:28:31.400 effect exists, you should be able to identify it beforehand 0:28:31.840 --> 0:28:33.399 say oh, this is a game that's got one of 0:28:33.400 --> 0:28:35.680 those effects. And then this is the result, and I've 0:28:35.680 --> 0:28:38.480 never been able to identify it. So basically, you're saying 0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:40.480 it doesn't really exist. By the way, I'm open to 0:28:40.520 --> 0:28:44.720 that answer, but you're still you Basically, I think it's 0:28:44.840 --> 0:28:48.760 I think it's so unpredictable that you can't use it 0:28:48.800 --> 0:28:52.560 in a prediction. It can't be quantified. It can't be 0:28:52.680 --> 0:28:55.080 quantified as what you're saying, because how in the world 0:28:55.120 --> 0:28:57.360 are you going to say whether this team came off 0:28:57.400 --> 0:29:00.720 a psychologically amazing win versus another team. So basically you're 0:29:00.720 --> 0:29:03.960 saying it may exist, but there's no way to quantify it. Yeah, basically, 0:29:04.720 --> 0:29:07.800 it's like your thoughts on God. Now we can go 0:29:07.880 --> 0:29:10.320 one second. Why don't we go back to the Simpleton 0:29:10.400 --> 0:29:12.560 part of the program, go on to That was an 0:29:12.560 --> 0:29:14.960 excellent question. Every once in a while you run into one, 0:29:15.280 --> 0:29:18.680 nicely done. That was an excellent question. And both games 0:29:18.680 --> 0:29:20.600 are both teams are coming off big wins, aren't they. 0:29:20.640 --> 0:29:24.880 I mean, Denver beat Carolina nicely, right, But I would 0:29:25.000 --> 0:29:27.320 I would I would phrase the Bills win over the 0:29:27.400 --> 0:29:31.160 Steelers in what was Yeah, to me, that was like 0:29:31.160 --> 0:29:33.560 a monster, that was like a Bill's signature win for 0:29:33.560 --> 0:29:36.400 this season. Like Okay, now we've taken on the eleven 0:29:36.400 --> 0:29:38.720 and one Steelers, We've proven we can play with the 0:29:38.760 --> 0:29:41.680 top teams. Josh Allen coming into his own to me, 0:29:41.800 --> 0:29:44.960 that's like a real signature win. Yeah, I agree with you. 0:29:45.080 --> 0:29:48.000 I I just yeah, I've never been able to quantify 0:29:48.040 --> 0:29:50.200 any kind of emotional effect from coming off a big 0:29:50.200 --> 0:29:53.240 win like that number two in a season where I've 0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:58.120 adapted to taking overs in in pro football. I'm gonna 0:29:58.160 --> 0:30:01.000 give it rare under uh and I'm gonna give the 0:30:01.080 --> 0:30:05.200 Dolphins and Patriots game under Todd is it is it 0:30:05.360 --> 0:30:10.560 forty one and a half. You see when we have 0:30:10.600 --> 0:30:14.080 two quarterbacks and Aaron can attest to this, they're passing 0:30:14.120 --> 0:30:18.880 offense is just not good between between Newton and tua Uh. 0:30:19.000 --> 0:30:20.920 I don't think they're dynamic at all. I think the 0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:23.680 defense is the stronger side of the ball on both 0:30:23.720 --> 0:30:28.760 of these teams. Um, I make this number myself thirty 0:30:28.800 --> 0:30:31.400 eight and a half because of the ineptitude of of Tuah. 0:30:31.520 --> 0:30:33.560 I mean, I'm really down on this guy. I really are. 0:30:34.640 --> 0:30:37.320 I'm actually not going to test to that our numbers 0:30:37.400 --> 0:30:39.560 like too of this year. And I'm surprised because I 0:30:39.600 --> 0:30:42.960 thought he's gonna struggle, but Miami is something like tent 0:30:43.160 --> 0:30:46.160 in passing and that has continued. It's basically been the 0:30:46.200 --> 0:30:48.640 same with two that it was with Fitzpatrick. That'll get 0:30:48.640 --> 0:30:52.720 your to eight. I just watched watching him play. He 0:30:52.800 --> 0:30:55.480 has one play. All he can do is is fake 0:30:55.560 --> 0:30:57.160 to run and throw the end slant. That's all they 0:30:57.200 --> 0:31:00.200 could do against Kansas City, and then Kansas City got 0:31:00.240 --> 0:31:02.360 into this kind of prevent defense a little bit there 0:31:02.360 --> 0:31:03.840 in the fourth quarter where they were just trying to 0:31:04.080 --> 0:31:06.440 two o'clock and let him have some easy throws. I 0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:09.000 think Belichick will take away what he can do. I 0:31:09.040 --> 0:31:12.640 also think you saw Cam Newton obviously struggles. He's still 0:31:12.720 --> 0:31:16.080 he still doesn't have the form he had three years ago. 0:31:16.200 --> 0:31:17.880 And I just think this is a dead under game 0:31:17.920 --> 0:31:20.920 in the humidity in December in Miami. I look for 0:31:20.960 --> 0:31:23.600 this game. I'm not sure who wins it actually, but 0:31:23.680 --> 0:31:26.960 I'm thinking this is more of a seventeen thirteen, seventeen 0:31:27.040 --> 0:31:29.520 fourteen type of affair. I wonder I will say this, 0:31:29.880 --> 0:31:34.600 Brian Flores, who has been by any measure, has done 0:31:34.600 --> 0:31:37.480 a spectacular job. Team that flirted, may not get there, 0:31:37.480 --> 0:31:40.080 but flirted with a division championship this year. If the 0:31:40.080 --> 0:31:44.080 Bills weren't so great. Uh, he does. There is a 0:31:44.120 --> 0:31:47.160 bit of painting into the painting himself into the corner 0:31:47.200 --> 0:31:51.560 with two, right, because if you believe and maybe Flora's 0:31:51.600 --> 0:31:56.960 doesn't believe this, but if you believe that, um, if 0:31:57.480 --> 0:31:59.880 she'd like you to watch her bag, I'm like, she'd 0:31:59.880 --> 0:32:03.800 like you to watch your bag if you believe. So 0:32:03.840 --> 0:32:07.560 what happens when you do a live podcast? Make sure 0:32:07.640 --> 0:32:11.160 that's okay? Then big um Uh. If I'm the one, 0:32:11.200 --> 0:32:14.800 I'm the one who ruins the podcast. Here are absolutely 0:32:15.560 --> 0:32:18.040 I'm just to make sure nobody's walking behind me. I 0:32:18.040 --> 0:32:20.240 I sent my girlfriend upstairs. I don't know if the 0:32:20.280 --> 0:32:23.120 Dolphins have a game to get into the postseason, let's 0:32:23.120 --> 0:32:26.240 say in week seventeen, just to a really give you 0:32:26.280 --> 0:32:30.120 the worst, just to a really give you, uh the 0:32:30.120 --> 0:32:33.560 best shot of winning that do or die game over 0:32:33.680 --> 0:32:36.560 Ryan Fitzpatrick and I guess what Brian Flores has already 0:32:36.560 --> 0:32:38.960 decided is it's too as long as two is healthy 0:32:38.960 --> 0:32:40.760 and so that that is the one little thing that 0:32:40.800 --> 0:32:45.480 will be interesting to watch. I think that they they 0:32:45.600 --> 0:32:47.640 they put themselves in that position though when they went 0:32:47.680 --> 0:32:50.200 to two earlier in the season. Yes, like the minute 0:32:50.240 --> 0:32:52.719 that he went to to Ah, it was, Okay, this 0:32:52.800 --> 0:32:54.880 is the quarterback for the rest of the year, even 0:32:54.880 --> 0:32:58.400 if we're in playoff contention, this is the quarterback. We're 0:32:58.400 --> 0:33:00.560 sticking with it. Yeah, that's what I mean by sort 0:33:00.560 --> 0:33:02.680 of painting. Maybe, I mean it's my phrase to say 0:33:02.720 --> 0:33:05.400 painted into the corn, painted itself into the corner up. 0:33:05.720 --> 0:33:07.080 But I mean, I think it's not even in the 0:33:07.120 --> 0:33:09.320 last week or two that he's been painted into corner. 0:33:09.360 --> 0:33:11.840 I think from the moment that they switched quarterback. But 0:33:12.000 --> 0:33:15.160 that was Yeah, you're you're right, because I've I've actually 0:33:15.200 --> 0:33:16.400 said it a couple of times a year. I said 0:33:16.440 --> 0:33:19.480 it initially with if they want to get to the 0:33:19.520 --> 0:33:21.800 division Crown. I said it initially. Now it's to get 0:33:21.840 --> 0:33:23.360 to the playoffs. So you're right, it's been a while. 0:33:23.480 --> 0:33:27.160 By the way, she smelled wonderful, didn't she. I only 0:33:27.160 --> 0:33:29.000 smelled the cigarette's That's what I mean. It's it's a 0:33:29.120 --> 0:33:32.760 it's a it's a combination of Marlboro and Virginia Slims 0:33:33.520 --> 0:33:40.320 Special Las Vegas. Yeah, Todd, you're number two. Okay, So wow, 0:33:40.360 --> 0:33:42.200 this week is just so I don't know if you 0:33:42.240 --> 0:33:44.560 guys feel that this week is incredibly hard. But I 0:33:44.600 --> 0:33:47.840 just feel this week is just incredibly and difficult week 0:33:47.960 --> 0:33:51.080 to come up with picks. But um, I'm gonna go 0:33:51.120 --> 0:33:54.960 with another under again. You know, um the Niners game 0:33:55.440 --> 0:33:59.040 last week, I had the under with Washington. Um, Nick 0:33:59.120 --> 0:34:02.760 Mollins to me is not in NFL starting quarterback. I'm 0:34:02.800 --> 0:34:07.040 gonna go under forty five in the Dallas San Francisco game. 0:34:07.320 --> 0:34:10.000 I think they have to protect Nick Mollins. They've got 0:34:10.000 --> 0:34:12.480 to run the football, and I like San Francisco defensively. 0:34:12.560 --> 0:34:14.400 I think San Francisco, even though they've had all the 0:34:14.440 --> 0:34:18.800 injuries and everything, I still think they're a good defensive team. Um. 0:34:18.840 --> 0:34:20.880 I think they can hold the Cowboys down with the 0:34:20.880 --> 0:34:23.520 red rifle. The beige rifle is Mike calls them. To 0:34:23.560 --> 0:34:29.840 see how how I give big Water right if I 0:34:29.920 --> 0:34:32.319 give credit when Mikey comes up with something, you know, 0:34:32.520 --> 0:34:35.000 really good beige water pistol. I don't think the beige 0:34:35.040 --> 0:34:37.000 water pistol is gonna be able to do much against 0:34:37.239 --> 0:34:39.920 San Francisco's defense. And I really don't think Nick Mollins 0:34:39.960 --> 0:34:43.520 is an NFL quarterback. So I'm gonna go under forty 0:34:43.000 --> 0:34:46.680 five in the Dallas San Francisco game to replace my 0:34:46.760 --> 0:34:48.920 Kansas City pick, which would have led to all of 0:34:49.000 --> 0:34:51.880 us going on and one. How about San Francisco Dallas 0:34:51.960 --> 0:34:55.840 getting flexed out and the Giants and the Browns getting 0:34:55.880 --> 0:35:00.960 flexed in. That's what it is if Kansas City and 0:35:01.040 --> 0:35:04.800 New Orleans didn't exist this week. This is the worst 0:35:04.800 --> 0:35:08.600 set of matchups in any week ever in history. It's 0:35:08.719 --> 0:35:10.759 so bad by the fact that there are teams with 0:35:10.840 --> 0:35:15.719 losing records that are in the playoff race. Yes, correct, Washington, 0:35:15.800 --> 0:35:19.399 Seattle saves it break, that's right, Miami, New England kind 0:35:19.440 --> 0:35:23.279 of uh my number in Minnesota, right, that's right. That 0:35:23.360 --> 0:35:26.279 game a de facto elimination game. My second pick is 0:35:26.280 --> 0:35:29.319 the Miami Dolphins. That's another one that the line went 0:35:29.360 --> 0:35:32.279 against me. But is this your first pick? Well, I 0:35:32.200 --> 0:35:34.040 I Kansas City. I went in it was number two. 0:35:34.040 --> 0:35:36.480 Just because you mentioned this is number one, number one, 0:35:36.640 --> 0:35:39.160 number one. I don't know what do you have? I 0:35:39.239 --> 0:35:41.360 have minus one one and a half somewhere in then 0:35:42.480 --> 0:35:47.239 minus Yeah, it's a minus one. I think Miami. It's 0:35:47.320 --> 0:35:49.560 kind of teetering between minus one minus one and then 0:35:49.600 --> 0:35:51.799 we'll give you We'll give you the minus one. Hey, 0:35:51.840 --> 0:35:53.879 thanks to what are you watching? Over there on though 0:35:53.920 --> 0:35:58.160 he's watching Burnley and aston Villa against aston Villa, it's 0:35:58.160 --> 0:36:00.960 a tremendous game with a spot of so I don't 0:36:00.960 --> 0:36:04.040 have to I don't have to add much to this 0:36:04.360 --> 0:36:09.040 other than I like Aaron really do kind of like 0:36:09.239 --> 0:36:13.200 to a hear. I'm not that uh bearish on him, 0:36:13.239 --> 0:36:15.000 and I just think, you know, at some point you 0:36:15.040 --> 0:36:19.480 can't usually defensive, the propensity to get turnovers on defense 0:36:19.560 --> 0:36:21.960 is not a predictive thing. But the Dolphins have done 0:36:21.960 --> 0:36:24.800 this enough where to me it's like, no, this team, 0:36:25.000 --> 0:36:28.440 this team absolutely has a knack for this. And against 0:36:28.440 --> 0:36:31.920 the guy like Cam Newton, who has just been awful, 0:36:32.040 --> 0:36:34.160 someone I don't know. I wish I could remember who 0:36:34.360 --> 0:36:37.960 wrote this. This morning, somebody wrote he's essentially an old 0:36:38.000 --> 0:36:43.400 tailback playing quarterback now in the NFL. There's an interesting line. 0:36:43.800 --> 0:36:46.480 I don't have any confidence in the pages that Patriots. 0:36:46.520 --> 0:36:48.520 It's not even I mean Belichick took for them to 0:36:48.560 --> 0:36:51.960 be six and seven is remarkable, I believe, because they 0:36:52.000 --> 0:36:54.080 just don't have the bodies. They just don't have a talent. 0:36:54.400 --> 0:36:56.160 I mean last week against the Rams. That's why I 0:36:56.160 --> 0:36:58.160 loved that Thursday night games so much. The fact that 0:36:58.239 --> 0:37:03.399 Jalen Ramsey and Darius Williams, Jacoby Myers. Who was the guy? Jaleiams? 0:37:03.560 --> 0:37:05.719 You know, I'm sorry, Ahead. I think Cam has been 0:37:05.719 --> 0:37:07.840 better than you're giving him credit for. I think the 0:37:07.880 --> 0:37:10.719 problem is that his receivers are terrible. Yeah, this is 0:37:10.880 --> 0:37:12.879 just a question of bodies. At some point, you don't 0:37:12.880 --> 0:37:16.719 have any players that are NFL restaurant quality. So I'm 0:37:16.719 --> 0:37:19.680 taking the Dolphins. I'm laying the one. I'd like to 0:37:19.680 --> 0:37:22.160 pose a question to Aaron and then Gil you could 0:37:22.239 --> 0:37:25.120 comment on it. Todd, I don't really think you're qualified to. 0:37:25.960 --> 0:37:28.480 I'm gonna give you five quarterbacks if you were the 0:37:28.560 --> 0:37:31.560 GM of an NFL team, which is can I just 0:37:31.600 --> 0:37:35.600 say one word? Wow? If you were the GM of 0:37:35.640 --> 0:37:38.279 an NFL team, who would you like to have out 0:37:38.280 --> 0:37:43.160 of these five? And in order? Okay to uh, Justin Herbert, 0:37:43.680 --> 0:37:49.520 mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Howell. I don't know enough 0:37:49.560 --> 0:37:52.040 about college quarterbacks to be able to tell you how 0:37:52.080 --> 0:37:54.360 I feel about Mac Jones or Sam Howell. To be honest, 0:37:55.880 --> 0:37:57.799 I don't really pay much attention to them until the 0:37:57.920 --> 0:38:00.200 NFL season is over, and then I look start king 0:38:00.280 --> 0:38:03.640 into the draft. Justin Herbert is clearly number one based 0:38:03.680 --> 0:38:08.960 on what we've seen. Uh And I I am not 0:38:09.280 --> 0:38:13.040 convinced about Trevor Lawrence like others are. And that is 0:38:13.120 --> 0:38:16.120 all about the one championship game last year against LSU, 0:38:16.239 --> 0:38:19.200 Like here was the here we was facing pro players. 0:38:19.719 --> 0:38:21.600 Didn't go that well. So I think he has a 0:38:21.600 --> 0:38:23.560 lot to prove down the stretch of this college football season. 0:38:23.760 --> 0:38:26.000 Everyone's like, oh, the Jets are gonna get Trevor Lombardi. 0:38:26.080 --> 0:38:28.920 Michael Lombardi says, oh, he's leaps and bounds the best 0:38:28.920 --> 0:38:34.560 prospect out there. I'm all disagrees with that, how like 0:38:34.640 --> 0:38:38.919 how he doesn't think how it's get by the way, 0:38:39.000 --> 0:38:41.920 obviously you have to take Herbert because he's a proven commodity. 0:38:42.000 --> 0:38:45.560 You never know about any college athlete before he comes 0:38:45.600 --> 0:38:48.040 in because it's not the same thing. So obviously make 0:38:48.120 --> 0:38:50.000 Herbert number one. But out of all those other guys, 0:38:50.360 --> 0:38:53.160 I like, how to um tell them all that I'm 0:38:53.160 --> 0:38:55.960 with him on that that guy is damn good too? 0:38:56.360 --> 0:38:58.200 Is my number two too? Is my number two on 0:38:58.239 --> 0:39:00.319 that list? That it is such an in a zact 0:39:00.360 --> 0:39:03.840 science projecting quarterbacks from college to pro and usually the 0:39:03.880 --> 0:39:05.920 only ones that Dr Bob would say the only stat 0:39:06.000 --> 0:39:09.319 that really matters his accuracy. But even that, take a 0:39:09.320 --> 0:39:11.880 guy like Josh Allen. He was horrible. He was horrific 0:39:11.960 --> 0:39:15.000 the first two years, and now he's one top five, 0:39:15.239 --> 0:39:17.640 and his accuracy at Wyoming was not good, right, So 0:39:17.680 --> 0:39:19.359 that's why it was like he was predicted the first 0:39:19.400 --> 0:39:20.759 two years, but then he you know, he did this 0:39:20.880 --> 0:39:24.040 camp hold on top May just finished the sentence. He 0:39:24.320 --> 0:39:25.960 the first two years he was awful. He did this 0:39:26.080 --> 0:39:30.440 camp with Jordan Palmer, Carson Palmer's brother, and magically, I 0:39:30.440 --> 0:39:32.840 don't know if that helped him, but one of the 0:39:32.880 --> 0:39:35.480 top five. We've never seen anything like it. Oh, it is. 0:39:35.520 --> 0:39:39.560 It's historically amazing. I mean I don't remember seeing anything 0:39:39.600 --> 0:39:40.960 like it. And if you go back, you have to 0:39:41.000 --> 0:39:43.880 go back into like the seventies, find guys whose completion 0:39:43.960 --> 0:39:47.439 rates increased like that after two bad years. And if 0:39:47.640 --> 0:39:49.680 the thing is if they can do the kind of 0:39:49.719 --> 0:39:54.120 you know, they like filmed his uh, they filmed his release, 0:39:54.200 --> 0:39:56.000 and then they looked at where his feet were, and 0:39:56.040 --> 0:39:57.600 they looked at where his arm were, and they used 0:39:57.600 --> 0:39:59.839 all this technology the way they do with baseball heater. 0:40:00.280 --> 0:40:03.279 If they can do that to improve guy's accuracy, that 0:40:03.400 --> 0:40:06.400 actually opens up to draft a lot more quarterbacks who 0:40:06.480 --> 0:40:08.560 become more draft able than they were before. If you 0:40:08.560 --> 0:40:11.480 can actually fix the guy's accuracy now with that kind 0:40:11.480 --> 0:40:15.480 of computer help, that absolutely would be fascinating. If if 0:40:15.520 --> 0:40:19.840 that's a thing now, Um, I honestly take the gamble, 0:40:19.960 --> 0:40:22.880 I would bet that that Allen is just a massive outfire. 0:40:23.360 --> 0:40:26.680 I think you're probably right, um. But also, so much 0:40:26.680 --> 0:40:29.440 of NFL QB is in the head, So much is 0:40:29.480 --> 0:40:33.000 between the ears, and that's to make the decision fast 0:40:33.040 --> 0:40:36.080 to the right guy. So it's not always Maybe Josh 0:40:36.120 --> 0:40:37.600 Allen was the kind of guy he just needed his 0:40:37.640 --> 0:40:39.440 mechanics fixed and he had the head for it the 0:40:39.440 --> 0:40:42.080 whole time. But there are guys that come in and 0:40:42.120 --> 0:40:44.000 have great like Drew lock is never going to be 0:40:44.040 --> 0:40:45.920 a star in my opinion, because he just doesn't have 0:40:46.000 --> 0:40:48.840 it between the years. And it's hard to tell because 0:40:48.880 --> 0:40:51.000 in college those guys had all their reads to find 0:40:51.080 --> 0:40:56.279 for Yeah, Aaron, you're a third and final Pixer. My 0:40:56.400 --> 0:41:00.720 third pick of the week is the Pittsburgh Steelers minus 0:41:00.800 --> 0:41:04.640 twelve and a half against Cincinnati. I think at this 0:41:04.680 --> 0:41:10.040 point the Steelers have become so overrated. They're underrated and 0:41:10.120 --> 0:41:14.640 I think that the Cincinnati offense is horrific, horrific without 0:41:14.680 --> 0:41:18.719 Joe Burrow, just awful. By the last three games. Their 0:41:18.800 --> 0:41:21.640 rating in my numbers over a full season would make 0:41:21.680 --> 0:41:24.360 them the worst offense ever measured ever. If it was 0:41:24.400 --> 0:41:26.560 on on pace, it would be to be the worst. 0:41:26.600 --> 0:41:29.680 What they've done since Burrow went out would be on 0:41:29.719 --> 0:41:32.600 pace to be the worst offense everbotion, How are they 0:41:32.680 --> 0:41:36.640 going for points against the Pittsburgh Steelers? Yeah, jeez, That's 0:41:36.640 --> 0:41:38.759 why I said about the Jets against the Rams this 0:41:38.800 --> 0:41:41.680 week too. How the Jets going to score against that defense? 0:41:41.680 --> 0:41:44.080 I've been betting. I've been betting the team totals under 0:41:44.120 --> 0:41:47.120 on Cincinnati every week and winning pretty easily. But I 0:41:47.160 --> 0:41:50.239 will say this in my Pittsburgh's voice, Mark Malone and 0:41:50.280 --> 0:41:52.959 the Pittsburgh Stillers of the early eighties would have something 0:41:53.040 --> 0:41:55.359 to say about being the worst offense of all time. 0:41:55.440 --> 0:41:57.359 That team went about four teen games in a row 0:41:57.360 --> 0:42:03.279 with no touchdowns. Aaron's gott are. The worst offense that 0:42:03.320 --> 0:42:06.520 we've ever measured is the two thousand two Texans, and 0:42:06.600 --> 0:42:12.080 the worst passing game is the Seahawks. Now, what the 0:42:12.120 --> 0:42:15.000 Bengals have done Burrow went out is worse than both 0:42:15.040 --> 0:42:19.120 of those. Wow, Now, Aaron, just for giggles, tell everybody 0:42:19.160 --> 0:42:21.040 what the finest team is in all your metrics going 0:42:21.040 --> 0:42:25.200 back to please not not Washington and Rippon, Please please 0:42:25.280 --> 0:42:28.400 not Washington, don't want it is in fact the one 0:42:28.440 --> 0:42:30.680 Washington Redskins and Mark Rippon is the best team in 0:42:30.719 --> 0:42:35.600 our metris. Yes, going back now four Now we know 0:42:35.719 --> 0:42:40.560 idea like Aaron shot now because Ariel he liked before that, 0:42:40.600 --> 0:42:44.120 he liked me before we got back to That's right, 0:42:44.200 --> 0:42:46.799 That's exactly right Aaron and I. I was in love 0:42:46.840 --> 0:42:49.000 with Aaron in ninety four, ninety three, and then when 0:42:49.000 --> 0:42:50.680 I got to ninety one, it was just the romance, 0:42:51.000 --> 0:42:53.839 all right. Do you have like in between seasons though, 0:42:53.840 --> 0:42:56.960 because there are swaths of seasons where teams have like 0:42:57.000 --> 0:43:00.080 their third string quarterback playing and they're even worse. And 0:43:00.160 --> 0:43:02.200 maybe you know what I mean, like you're taking all 0:43:02.440 --> 0:43:05.440 the whole season as all is just measuring the whole season, 0:43:05.520 --> 0:43:08.279 not like obviously there have been offenses that are worse 0:43:08.360 --> 0:43:12.440 than this year's Bengals without Burrow, with other backup quarterbacks, 0:43:12.480 --> 0:43:14.799 I mean, with Kendall Hinton, like that may have been 0:43:14.840 --> 0:43:18.680 the worst offense in NFL history, right, but um, but 0:43:19.000 --> 0:43:21.680 just I'm saying, if if if what they've done since 0:43:21.680 --> 0:43:24.000 Burrow went out was what they were doing for the 0:43:24.120 --> 0:43:26.560 entire year, it would measure is the worst full year 0:43:26.600 --> 0:43:29.040 of offense that we've ever measured. Like the Seahawks in 0:43:29.160 --> 0:43:31.840 ninety two tried three different quarterbacks and they all sucked. 0:43:32.239 --> 0:43:36.640 It's stofer in McGuire and um, I can't remember who 0:43:36.640 --> 0:43:38.399 the third guy was. At least they were all Kelly 0:43:38.480 --> 0:43:42.560 Sfer and Dan McGuire, Mark's brother. By the way, they 0:43:42.640 --> 0:43:45.040 like the Ken. The Kendall h Hinting thing is clearly 0:43:45.080 --> 0:43:47.960 the worst ever because the one pass he completed, he 0:43:48.000 --> 0:43:50.719 looked to the sidelines and let a big smile, just 0:43:50.840 --> 0:43:54.600 knowing what an accomplishment that was. That the guy they 0:43:54.680 --> 0:43:58.360 told him the night before, congratulations, you're now our starting quarterbacks. 0:43:58.400 --> 0:44:00.960 Like I mean, it's not his not at all, not 0:44:01.000 --> 0:44:03.160 at all. Who knows what Kendall Hayton could do as 0:44:03.160 --> 0:44:06.080 an NFL quarterback if you gave him like an entire 0:44:06.160 --> 0:44:08.759 training camp. But that's not what he has if you 0:44:08.800 --> 0:44:12.200 get it, if you gave him a day. I remember 0:44:12.200 --> 0:44:15.120 when the Bear ran Walter Payton at quarterback for a 0:44:15.200 --> 0:44:19.080 little while because they had like a horrendousness at quarterback. 0:44:19.120 --> 0:44:21.359 Four they tried him at quarterback for a little bit. Yep, 0:44:21.640 --> 0:44:27.040 I don't remember that at all. Four. Yep, eighty four 0:44:27.200 --> 0:44:30.799 was the Steve Fuller year, right, Yep. They went into 0:44:30.880 --> 0:44:33.279 There's something, man. I think there too. There was what 0:44:33.320 --> 0:44:36.440 that Vince Evans. I think there's something, man. No, Vince 0:44:36.440 --> 0:44:39.000 Evans is earlier than that. Vin sevens is like they 0:44:39.000 --> 0:44:41.680 were bad at with Vince s evens eighty four Steve Fuller. 0:44:42.080 --> 0:44:46.480 The only game the Washington Redskins of your that the 0:44:46.480 --> 0:44:49.720 Washington football team ever lost in the playoffs at RFK 0:44:49.880 --> 0:44:53.960 Stadium was the eighty four Bears with Steve Fuller. Uh, 0:44:54.000 --> 0:44:55.600 the only time they ever lost the playoff game at 0:44:55.640 --> 0:44:57.640 rf And then they went and lost the NFC Championship 0:44:57.640 --> 0:45:00.440 game to the forty Niners. The Bears in four, that's correct, 0:45:00.440 --> 0:45:02.080 when they ran Guy MC and tied to show it, 0:45:03.239 --> 0:45:05.840 but that was the precursor of the grade eighty five season. 0:45:06.239 --> 0:45:08.799 You're number three, Aaron, How far? How far back are 0:45:08.800 --> 0:45:10.399 you going on these? Are you going all the way 0:45:10.440 --> 0:45:13.800 back to my super stellars? Because in nineteen seventy seven 0:45:13.880 --> 0:45:15.879 people say we didn't win the Super Bowl, but they 0:45:15.880 --> 0:45:18.040 say we were the best stiller team of all time. 0:45:18.320 --> 0:45:20.319 I think it's seventy six that's supposed to be the 0:45:20.320 --> 0:45:23.239 best sealer team of all time, even though that's the 0:45:23.239 --> 0:45:27.040 one that lost to the Raiders. Right now we have 0:45:27.200 --> 0:45:31.799 back to eighty five. It was possible. I'm finishing eighty 0:45:31.880 --> 0:45:35.799 four and eighty three now and then it's gonna get hard. 0:45:36.719 --> 0:45:40.480 It's possible. Here's what I'm saying. It's possible that the 0:45:40.520 --> 0:45:46.640 Mark Ripping lead Washington Redskins are not in fact, I say, 0:45:46.760 --> 0:45:50.680 are not better than the Pittsburgh Stillars, and I date 0:45:50.800 --> 0:45:53.680 seventy six giving them on a friend. No, hair's a 0:45:53.840 --> 0:45:56.320 rocky part. Throw it at the Lynn Swanna, John Stoworth 0:45:56.360 --> 0:45:59.200 with Jack Lambert, Jack hamp Oh, Yeah, it's go start. 0:45:59.560 --> 0:46:01.160 We are going to have to find a lot of 0:46:01.280 --> 0:46:04.440 VHS tapes. Yeah, back to the seventies. I have a 0:46:04.480 --> 0:46:07.680 feeling maybe it Blot that is really your four, that 0:46:07.760 --> 0:46:09.520 is your fork in the road. You just can't find 0:46:09.520 --> 0:46:11.879 the plays, right, you just can't find at a certain point, 0:46:11.920 --> 0:46:13.880 they're just the game books don't exist, and we have 0:46:13.960 --> 0:46:16.319 to find old VHS tapes like we wouldn't have been 0:46:16.360 --> 0:46:18.719 able to do eighty five through eighty nine if we 0:46:18.760 --> 0:46:21.719 didn't have certain games on vhs tap wow, because d 0:46:21.840 --> 0:46:24.600 v O A is is granular. It's every single play, Todd. 0:46:25.239 --> 0:46:27.440 That's so hard to have. Fine, like we already have 0:46:27.640 --> 0:46:30.080 where we're missing one or two plays here or there 0:46:30.680 --> 0:46:32.600 that are missing from game books or whatever. And we 0:46:32.640 --> 0:46:35.520 had to kind of guess by the way, Todd, Mark 0:46:35.600 --> 0:46:38.760 Rippin was sacked seven times all year. Stop it already 0:46:38.880 --> 0:46:41.279 they were. They were seventeen and two in one game. 0:46:41.320 --> 0:46:45.160 They didn't care what the Pittsburgh Spiller defense gave up, 0:46:45.200 --> 0:46:48.880 like one point five points per game. They were incredible, 0:46:49.080 --> 0:46:52.240 incredible mel Blunt. Have you ever heard of that guy? 0:46:52.280 --> 0:46:54.520 They didn't have to play the Buffalo Bills or the 0:46:54.560 --> 0:46:57.880 Philadelphia Eagles. With their Philadelphia Eagles had one of your 0:46:57.920 --> 0:47:01.880 greatest rated defenses that year, to the greatest rated defense 0:47:02.080 --> 0:47:08.440 by far. People like John Madden Gibbs overcame that. Please, 0:47:08.760 --> 0:47:10.640 all right, your number three picks? Where how did the 0:47:10.680 --> 0:47:13.319 Eagles could score a point? Yes, that's where that's true. 0:47:13.360 --> 0:47:15.440 I left that part out. Aaron, Aaron, Where did the 0:47:15.440 --> 0:47:17.960 Cowboys teams in the early nineties rank in that? And 0:47:18.080 --> 0:47:22.280 you're oh, very well. But what's interesting is the forty 0:47:22.360 --> 0:47:26.080 Niners teams. It's almost like I have the wrong team 0:47:26.160 --> 0:47:29.359 number one in most of those years, Like I think 0:47:29.400 --> 0:47:32.040 that the forty Niners are higher than the Cowboys in 0:47:33.480 --> 0:47:36.520 this is for the regular season, and the Cowboys are 0:47:36.600 --> 0:47:42.440 higher than the forty. Interesting because of that that one 0:47:42.520 --> 0:47:46.319 time VENs hold on, Todd, hold on, hold on, Let 0:47:46.520 --> 0:47:48.879 please let the guest finishes coming. That game that you're 0:47:48.920 --> 0:47:54.480 referring to, Aaron, Uh, that San Francisco lost to the Eagles, 0:47:54.520 --> 0:47:57.000 it was like forty one to eight or something like 0:47:57.040 --> 0:48:00.520 that is still to me after all these years, the 0:48:00.640 --> 0:48:04.280 single most perplexing outcome of any regular season game ever 0:48:06.040 --> 0:48:10.680 makes no sense. How did that happen? Yeah? Bizarre? They 0:48:10.719 --> 0:48:15.360 lost to an Eagles team at home? That the Niners. Ridiculous. Anyway, 0:48:15.400 --> 0:48:20.360 you're number three. Sorry, maybe I missed it. What was 0:48:20.400 --> 0:48:23.080 todd second pick? I only have. I only wrote down 0:48:23.080 --> 0:48:27.480 one pick for you, Todd under forty in Dallas against 0:48:28.120 --> 0:48:31.040 I missed it. I do remember part of that. Okay. 0:48:31.520 --> 0:48:35.560 My third pick is the Colts Texans over what's your 0:48:35.640 --> 0:48:42.359 number one? I'm going back to it, Todd. I'm going 0:48:42.400 --> 0:48:44.640 back there at forty four points in the first half 0:48:44.840 --> 0:48:48.120 and two in the second half that they the first 0:48:48.160 --> 0:48:50.360 half is much more predictive of these two teams, and 0:48:50.400 --> 0:48:52.920 how bad the Texans defense has been. The Colts are 0:48:52.920 --> 0:48:54.319 going to go up and down the field like they 0:48:54.320 --> 0:48:56.919 did here at Allegiance Stadium, and you're still not gonna 0:48:56.920 --> 0:48:59.880 hold the Shawn Watson under seventeen. I just I like 0:49:00.040 --> 0:49:02.839 these overs. They're not even really sweats these teams. They 0:49:02.840 --> 0:49:06.240 never forced any punts. The only thing that kills these 0:49:06.600 --> 0:49:08.480 overs is if, like Todd says, you have in the 0:49:08.560 --> 0:49:10.680 nine minute drive with the field goal. Those are the 0:49:10.719 --> 0:49:12.520 only things is when they don't convert in the red zone. 0:49:12.560 --> 0:49:14.840 But they move up and down the field with little resistance. 0:49:15.160 --> 0:49:17.640 They rarely faced third downs these teams do they create 0:49:17.680 --> 0:49:22.240 third downs soft one Todd is at it. Thanks Todd, 0:49:22.280 --> 0:49:25.879 You're third and final. Yeah, and Aaron, before we got 0:49:25.880 --> 0:49:28.400 sidetracked on all the Niner talk and the Redskins is 0:49:28.400 --> 0:49:30.440 the greatest. I just wanted to ask you, do you 0:49:30.520 --> 0:49:33.400 have the Ravens defense in the year two thousand as 0:49:33.440 --> 0:49:36.839 the greatest defensive ever? Because I would contend that if 0:49:36.840 --> 0:49:39.560 you win the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer, no where 0:49:39.600 --> 0:49:42.440 do you have him ring, Well, if it's regular season only, 0:49:43.080 --> 0:49:45.239 they're better if you include the playoffs because they were 0:49:45.239 --> 0:49:47.160 so good in the playoffs. We don't even have them 0:49:47.160 --> 0:49:50.520 in the regular season as the best defense of that year. Wow, 0:49:50.520 --> 0:49:53.439 who was tennis was the best defense of that year? 0:49:53.520 --> 0:49:56.919 What battles those were in the playoffs. It's pretty miracle team. 0:49:56.920 --> 0:50:00.040 That was a music City miracle team, right. Uh. That 0:50:00.360 --> 0:50:03.760 was a year after the Music City's January two thousand 0:50:03.800 --> 0:50:06.399 was the Music City there. But the Ravens the best 0:50:06.560 --> 0:50:09.399 run defense of all time. But against the past, they 0:50:09.400 --> 0:50:11.840 were something like fifth or sixth that year in the 0:50:11.880 --> 0:50:14.560 regular season. Again, they turned it on in the playoffs. 0:50:14.800 --> 0:50:17.000 That's super Bowl against the Giants at that time in 0:50:17.040 --> 0:50:19.920 my life was my biggest bet ever. You had what 0:50:20.000 --> 0:50:22.600 the Giants punt seventeen times or something that they just 0:50:22.680 --> 0:50:24.879 kept pun punt, punt punt. I was like, this team 0:50:24.960 --> 0:50:27.720 is so much better than the Giants to those battles, 0:50:27.800 --> 0:50:29.840 and they would play Tennessee in those playoffs in the 0:50:29.840 --> 0:50:32.759 divisional rounds. They were unbelievable, how but badly they beat 0:50:32.840 --> 0:50:34.759 up McNair and he kept coming. They were always like 0:50:34.920 --> 0:50:39.680 sixteen thirteen games a lot of the Tennessee in Baltimore. 0:50:39.680 --> 0:50:43.920 Heavily adjusted in my numbers for schedule because like Cleveland 0:50:43.920 --> 0:50:47.960 and Cincinnati were terrible offensive, That's right, they were bad. 0:50:48.000 --> 0:50:51.560 Where do you rank the eighty five Bears in terms 0:50:51.600 --> 0:50:57.080 of overall defense? The defense we've ever measured? Number three, Yes, 0:50:57.320 --> 0:51:02.880 eight six Bears or two eighty five Bears gave up 0:51:02.920 --> 0:51:05.120 thirty to Tampa Bay twice. And you know, people think 0:51:05.120 --> 0:51:07.000 about at the end they were shutting everybody out when 0:51:07.000 --> 0:51:09.799 it got cold, but earlier in the year people put 0:51:09.880 --> 0:51:12.120 up yards and points against him. But okay, so so 0:51:12.239 --> 0:51:14.160 number one was the nine Eagles. Number two was the 0:51:14.200 --> 0:51:16.200 eighty six Bears defense. Number three was the eighty five 0:51:16.200 --> 0:51:18.959 Bears defense. That's an interesting point because the eighties six 0:51:19.040 --> 0:51:23.600 Bears defense. People forget after the Super Bowl Shuffle winning 0:51:23.640 --> 0:51:27.840 Super Bowl team. I'm going to security that Bears. That 0:51:27.960 --> 0:51:32.520 Bears team one games like by a field goal thirteen 0:51:32.560 --> 0:51:36.799 to ten every week. They were really bad offensively. And 0:51:36.840 --> 0:51:39.759 I remember when they played the Skins in the playoffs, 0:51:40.880 --> 0:51:42.440 you kind of knew, you were, like, this is an 0:51:42.440 --> 0:51:45.160 accident waiting to happen, but at one point didn't happen. 0:51:45.200 --> 0:51:47.120 That year, it happened to strike season the next year 0:51:47.320 --> 0:51:50.400 against the Skins. Um. Yeah, it's becoming to medicine over here. 0:51:50.440 --> 0:51:53.640 Sorry about that, Um, But that's interesting. So eighty five 0:51:53.800 --> 0:51:58.160 just below the eighties six version of the Bears. Um. Okay, Todd, 0:51:58.160 --> 0:52:00.799 what was your third final? By the way, I could 0:52:00.800 --> 0:52:03.239 talk to Aaron about his rankings of best defense and 0:52:03.280 --> 0:52:06.240 best offense for like a hundred years. What about this team? 0:52:06.280 --> 0:52:09.719 What about that team? What I love doing? I'm so 0:52:09.960 --> 0:52:13.799 looking forward to finishing eight three. And you know what, 0:52:13.920 --> 0:52:16.120 I'd like to talk to a guy like Aaron Shots 0:52:16.160 --> 0:52:18.480 more than maybe say like a general manager who's on 0:52:18.520 --> 0:52:21.000 the radio. I think you'd be much better. Well, you know, 0:52:21.640 --> 0:52:23.640 you know what I want to find out about eighty three. 0:52:24.040 --> 0:52:28.040 Was the Washington offense on in eight three one of 0:52:28.120 --> 0:52:31.360 the greatest of all time? That that's gonna be a 0:52:31.360 --> 0:52:34.680 good question. Yeah, because it wasn't until the ninety nine 0:52:34.760 --> 0:52:36.799 or the ninety eight Vikings, I can't remember what year 0:52:36.840 --> 0:52:40.239 it was where they were they finally clips the number 0:52:40.239 --> 0:52:44.759 of talking about Randy could Pepper to Randy Moss and 0:52:44.760 --> 0:52:46.840 then Gary Anderson. This is the first field goal in 0:52:46.840 --> 0:52:49.120 the history of field goals in the playoffs and they 0:52:49.200 --> 0:52:51.439 lose to the dirty Birds. I believe that was dirty, 0:52:51.760 --> 0:52:55.400 but it was fifteen years before the eight three Redskins 0:52:55.440 --> 0:52:58.960 had that beaten that that mark. That was an unbelievable 0:52:59.000 --> 0:53:01.680 Skins offense. But defense was the Pearl Harbor Crew as 0:53:01.719 --> 0:53:06.879 they called themselves. They were awful. Lost like fifty I'll 0:53:06.920 --> 0:53:11.000 lost forty seven on Monday Night football to the Packers. 0:53:11.040 --> 0:53:13.680 Just amazing. Anyway, Yeah, we can talk historical stuff, but 0:53:13.960 --> 0:53:15.279 it will be here all day. So we can't keep 0:53:15.880 --> 0:53:18.520 uh number three times? That would be great. That's just 0:53:18.560 --> 0:53:20.880 a lot of fun to go through like that. You know, 0:53:20.960 --> 0:53:23.120 this team is number six, this team is number now. 0:53:23.160 --> 0:53:29.040 That's bullshit, you know. Yeah, Okay, anyways, my number three 0:53:29.080 --> 0:53:30.759 I was gonna go with the Kansas City team. I 0:53:30.800 --> 0:53:35.359 already discussed why I can't do that. So I'm gonna 0:53:35.400 --> 0:53:38.760 just close my eyes do something scary. I'm gonna close 0:53:38.800 --> 0:53:40.880 my eyes and I'm gonna go with the New York 0:53:41.200 --> 0:53:44.600 Football Giants. Give me the five, gil, is that what 0:53:44.680 --> 0:53:48.640 you have? The five? Four and a half is? Okay? 0:53:48.640 --> 0:53:51.759 Well what you giving me four and a half and half? 0:53:52.480 --> 0:53:54.439 I see a lot of fives, but okay, I see 0:53:54.480 --> 0:53:58.400 what was happening here. Okay, anyways, I'll take the New 0:53:58.480 --> 0:54:04.160 York Football John Alliance. I like this team's defensive football. Now, granted, 0:54:04.360 --> 0:54:07.440 you know there's issues on offense. We all know them, 0:54:07.480 --> 0:54:10.960 we all love them. But you know, Joe Judge, to 0:54:11.080 --> 0:54:13.960 me as a guy, he's tightening, battening down the hatches 0:54:14.000 --> 0:54:17.880 and trying to just will his team to w's. I 0:54:18.040 --> 0:54:20.600 like what they do defensively. Last week was not a 0:54:20.600 --> 0:54:22.960 great week, but it really wasn't because the defense was bad. 0:54:22.960 --> 0:54:25.880 It was mostly because the offense couldn't do anything. And Cleveland, 0:54:26.640 --> 0:54:29.200 you know, it was a great game Monday night. We 0:54:29.239 --> 0:54:31.359 all saw the craziness at the end. By the way, 0:54:31.360 --> 0:54:34.279 I love how they say the pitch back safety thing 0:54:34.360 --> 0:54:36.160 is like, oh, it's the craziest loss of all time. 0:54:36.280 --> 0:54:38.480 It's not the craziest loss of all time. It happens 0:54:38.560 --> 0:54:41.160 all of the time. How many times I personally have 0:54:41.280 --> 0:54:43.479 lost because of pitch backs at the on the last 0:54:43.800 --> 0:54:46.360 it doesn't happen. It doesn't happen in the NFL on 0:54:46.400 --> 0:54:48.640 a Monday night game, or the line is three all 0:54:48.640 --> 0:54:50.920 the time in a game that was forty five to 0:54:51.040 --> 0:54:55.160 forty two, and you know, yeah, no, no, no, I 0:54:55.239 --> 0:54:58.320 agree that was crazy, but I'm saying I can remember 0:54:58.680 --> 0:55:01.680 tons of pitch back craziness on the last play the game, 0:55:01.719 --> 0:55:03.400 in the end of In fact, whenever I have a 0:55:03.480 --> 0:55:05.400 line and I know the other team has like one 0:55:05.440 --> 0:55:07.160 last play, I'm always sitting on the edge of my 0:55:07.200 --> 0:55:10.080 feet seat going, please not with the pitch backs. Please 0:55:10.160 --> 0:55:13.520 no pitch back. And so it does happen. The word 0:55:13.560 --> 0:55:16.160 happens anyway. The fact that the Giants, the fact that 0:55:16.160 --> 0:55:18.520 he spiked it with and their left two seconds, the 0:55:18.520 --> 0:55:22.360 fact that they did the touchback, it's all these things. No, no, 0:55:22.520 --> 0:55:24.239 it was crazy, don't get me wrong. I'm just saying 0:55:24.239 --> 0:55:26.879 it wasn't like we've never seen this before. We've seen 0:55:27.360 --> 0:55:29.280 if you want to see something you've never seen before. 0:55:29.360 --> 0:55:33.719 The ball state game on Saturday with Western Michigan and 0:55:33.840 --> 0:55:36.719 they they were laddering the ball back and forth, and 0:55:36.719 --> 0:55:38.719 then they thought that that their team had fallen on 0:55:38.760 --> 0:55:41.000 the ball. So the entire team ran on the field 0:55:41.239 --> 0:55:43.359 and they kept the play going because he didn't really 0:55:43.360 --> 0:55:45.239 recover the ball, and they ran it all the way 0:55:45.280 --> 0:55:47.279 back for a touchdown. It would have been a win, 0:55:47.440 --> 0:55:50.160 but for there was another penalty that was the craziest 0:55:50.280 --> 0:55:52.000 except except for the fact of the handle of that 0:55:52.160 --> 0:55:55.279 is a fraction of the Monday night football game right, Well, 0:55:55.280 --> 0:55:57.760 of course, of course. But I mean to me, Western 0:55:57.800 --> 0:56:00.520 Michigan against ball Stage is just as good as you know, 0:56:00.600 --> 0:56:02.680 Browns against Kansas City. I'm not one of these guys 0:56:02.680 --> 0:56:04.560 who has like this. You know, if you bet on 0:56:04.640 --> 0:56:10.680 both cities, you've got a problem both state. What my 0:56:10.760 --> 0:56:14.000 third pick is the New York Footings plus four and 0:56:14.040 --> 0:56:16.800 a half. The New York Football Giants football team is 0:56:16.840 --> 0:56:20.120 a fantastic defensive team. Well, maybe that's too far. I 0:56:20.160 --> 0:56:22.440 like their defense. I think they can hang in the 0:56:22.480 --> 0:56:24.880 game at home against the Browns. The Browns had this 0:56:24.960 --> 0:56:28.319 incredible emotional situation and now they've got to go on 0:56:28.360 --> 0:56:30.760 the road and beat the Giants. I could so easily 0:56:30.800 --> 0:56:33.279 see this coming down to the end. Or even if 0:56:33.320 --> 0:56:35.680 the Browns are up late by eleven they give up 0:56:35.719 --> 0:56:38.239 the back door touchdown. Give me the Giants plus the 0:56:38.680 --> 0:56:41.320 four and a half, and I'm not gonna go with 0:56:41.400 --> 0:56:43.680 Kansas City, even though I wanted, what's the what's the 0:56:43.719 --> 0:56:48.520 Minnesota Chicago line that you have? I have Minnesota Chicago 0:56:48.640 --> 0:56:53.200 at the Minnesota Vikings either three minus one or three 0:56:53.239 --> 0:56:57.040 and a half. Right, Well, what's the ruling then if 0:56:57.040 --> 0:56:58.839 you're gonna try to take the Minnesota, you can't take 0:56:58.880 --> 0:57:03.240 Minnesota minus one. So Minnesota minus three and a half 0:57:03.280 --> 0:57:06.480 is my number three pick. I am going to assume, 0:57:06.520 --> 0:57:08.880 and we know what we say about assuming. So I 0:57:08.880 --> 0:57:12.840 am making a leap here that Mike Zimmer and company 0:57:13.120 --> 0:57:16.920 know how to to call plays, not that Zimmer is 0:57:16.960 --> 0:57:18.960 the guy doing it, but that they know how to 0:57:18.960 --> 0:57:23.440 work around the Dan Bailey problem. And so they are 0:57:23.520 --> 0:57:27.840 going to game scripted in game when they're matriculating the 0:57:27.840 --> 0:57:30.280 ball down the field, They're going to keep that in 0:57:30.360 --> 0:57:31.920 mind at all times. And they got to get this 0:57:31.960 --> 0:57:35.080 ball close before attempting field goals. I'm gonna assume that 0:57:35.120 --> 0:57:38.280 they're aware of this. Uh. I just think in the end, 0:57:39.040 --> 0:57:42.000 as great as Chicago's defense has been and showed itself 0:57:42.080 --> 0:57:46.280 last week for instance, I'm I think Minnesota Vikings offense 0:57:46.320 --> 0:57:50.160 to me is far more trustworthy than that of the Bears. 0:57:50.640 --> 0:57:52.920 And so I am going to lay the three and 0:57:52.920 --> 0:57:55.800 a half here and hope that the Vikings play this 0:57:56.000 --> 0:58:00.560 smart and keep themselves in playoff contention. So do this week? 0:58:00.560 --> 0:58:02.920 Did they bring any other kickers in? I didn't follow it. 0:58:03.080 --> 0:58:05.840 I don't think he missed the extra point by twenty 0:58:05.880 --> 0:58:08.320 three yards to the left. Did you see how far 0:58:08.400 --> 0:58:10.840 you point? Aaron? You didn't. He didn't hear that they 0:58:10.840 --> 0:58:13.120 brought in anybody, did they? I haven't seen any news 0:58:13.160 --> 0:58:15.680 of them bringing another kicker. Wow. Yeah, the old vote 0:58:15.680 --> 0:58:17.640 of confidence for Dan Billy Dan Bailey, who when he 0:58:18.000 --> 0:58:19.680 one time he could put the ball like this right 0:58:19.720 --> 0:58:21.600 wherever you wanted it when he was with the Cowboys. 0:58:21.680 --> 0:58:25.280 I have a Dan Bailey jersey. When the Cowboys allowed 0:58:25.440 --> 0:58:28.200 Dan Bailey to go away, I was like, I can't 0:58:28.240 --> 0:58:31.200 believe they did that. He's so great. It was really good. 0:58:31.280 --> 0:58:35.320 And now look, the best, the inconsistent unless their named 0:58:35.360 --> 0:58:38.040 Justin Tucker. That's right, unless the name is Justin Tucker, who, 0:58:38.040 --> 0:58:39.760 by the way, missed the Fieldville two weeks ago, got 0:58:39.760 --> 0:58:43.959 one block. Swimmy kicker is very good, too good, very good, 0:58:44.040 --> 0:58:47.280 Justin Tucker light Sanders. Yeah. And then the other one 0:58:47.360 --> 0:58:49.200 is the Chiefs have a good kick. But that's about it. 0:58:49.760 --> 0:58:52.280 Those are probably the three best and three most trustworthy 0:58:52.360 --> 0:58:55.040 kickers in the NFL. I like Raphael s at the end. 0:58:55.080 --> 0:58:59.000 That was good. I like that you heard it Todd. 0:58:59.040 --> 0:59:01.840 You know what kicker you could us the Skins, Chip 0:59:01.920 --> 0:59:04.920 low Miller. That's who you could trust. Now that guy, well, 0:59:05.200 --> 0:59:09.960 they probably didn't have Bring up award. What do you say, uh, Aaron, 0:59:10.880 --> 0:59:14.760 Mark Moseley at his MVP award, Mark Moseley nine and 0:59:14.840 --> 0:59:18.560 eighty two strikes shortened season National Football League m v P. 0:59:19.160 --> 0:59:22.480 What was more impressive for a kicker? Mark Moseley's m 0:59:22.560 --> 0:59:25.000 v P or Sarah Fuller's SEC Player of the Week. 0:59:26.640 --> 0:59:29.040 Why wasn't she kicking off the past week if she 0:59:29.200 --> 0:59:34.440 perfectly executed that squipt kick. I didn't get it, Mark Moseley. 0:59:34.600 --> 0:59:37.080 Memories of my father hugging me at RFK as that 0:59:37.120 --> 0:59:39.240 ball went through the snow to clinch a playoff birth 0:59:39.240 --> 0:59:42.040 against the Giants fifteen to fourteen, looking up boys and girls. 0:59:42.040 --> 0:59:44.080 And he was one of those straight on kickers like 0:59:44.200 --> 0:59:48.440 Dan Cockroft or Don Cockroft. One bar, one bar, helmet, 0:59:48.720 --> 0:59:51.600 straight on, all right, uh. Teaser of the week Aaron 0:59:51.800 --> 0:59:55.400 two team six point Teaser of the week, Sir, I 0:59:55.520 --> 1:00:00.880 like Pittsburgh minus six and a half twined, we've Carolina 1:00:01.040 --> 1:00:06.560 plus fourteen and a half against the Packers. Interesting again 1:00:06.600 --> 1:00:11.600 based on the fact of Cincinnati can't score any points. Second, Todd, 1:00:11.840 --> 1:00:15.480 you have to Todd. Let him Todd, let him explain. Please, Oh, 1:00:15.520 --> 1:00:18.640 it's thirteen, so it would be uh plus, it's gonna 1:00:18.640 --> 1:00:23.440 be Pittsburgh minded seven then right, and Carolina plus fourteen 1:00:23.480 --> 1:00:25.960 and a half. The Packers defense has had a tendency 1:00:26.000 --> 1:00:28.480 to give up points with Leeds latent games to let 1:00:28.520 --> 1:00:33.400 teams come back and make it close. So Pittsburgh and 1:00:33.480 --> 1:00:36.680 Carolina for Aaron, Mike, I was just trying to help 1:00:36.720 --> 1:00:38.560 him with the line, Gil because the line was not 1:00:39.720 --> 1:00:45.080 Please let the guest finish his thoughts and then, all right, Aaron, 1:00:45.120 --> 1:00:46.680 I apologize. I was just trying to help you with 1:00:46.720 --> 1:00:50.680 the line. That's all. Sorry. Just say I'm gonna take 1:00:50.920 --> 1:00:55.360 the Bills down to a pick yes against the Broncos, 1:00:56.160 --> 1:01:00.320 and then I'm going to take the Cowboys up to 1:01:00.520 --> 1:01:06.920 nine wow against the against What up with that? They 1:01:06.960 --> 1:01:09.520 don't have a quarterback? San Francisco doesn't have a quarterback. 1:01:10.080 --> 1:01:11.920 Well they do, but he's not very good. He'll probably 1:01:11.920 --> 1:01:16.200 be right. I'm just I don't know, Todd. I'm gonna 1:01:16.240 --> 1:01:21.479 go with Arizona Cardinals. Pick Arizona just to win the game. 1:01:21.560 --> 1:01:25.880 I think this Philadelphia Eagles is full god nonsense. I'm 1:01:25.920 --> 1:01:29.680 not a believer, and uh I would like to. I'm 1:01:29.720 --> 1:01:31.800 just having a hard time with the other pick. You 1:01:31.840 --> 1:01:33.520 know what, I'm just gonna go back to the tried 1:01:33.560 --> 1:01:36.040 and shrewd thing that always works green Bay minus two 1:01:36.080 --> 1:01:38.840 and a half. So for me, there are three teaser 1:01:38.920 --> 1:01:41.400 legs that I love, two of the Saturday ones, Buffalo 1:01:41.400 --> 1:01:46.000 and green Bay, and then I like Indianapolis on Sunday 1:01:46.040 --> 1:01:49.720 hosting the Texans. Essentially, Buffalo would be to tease down 1:01:49.720 --> 1:01:52.120 to win against ever green Bay would get it through 1:01:52.200 --> 1:01:56.600 the seven and three against Carolina, and Indianapolis would I 1:01:56.720 --> 1:01:59.760 like that? Yeah, basically to one and a half to 1:01:59.800 --> 1:02:02.360 be Houston. So in the end, you know what, let's 1:02:02.400 --> 1:02:05.720 make it a special Saturday teaser event. Let's just go 1:02:05.840 --> 1:02:09.800 Buffalo in green Bay. Okay, so you're going buffs to 1:02:10.000 --> 1:02:13.320 pick them and green Bay down to two and a half. Correct, 1:02:13.680 --> 1:02:15.920 But I do like your call. I don't say the 1:02:15.960 --> 1:02:18.040 Cults are in a different class of football team in 1:02:18.080 --> 1:02:20.680 the Texans. The Texans are not. Come on, the Texans 1:02:20.680 --> 1:02:23.400 are bad. They're just bad. Every time. You're just like, 1:02:23.600 --> 1:02:27.920 what's DeShawn Watson? Come on, It's DeShawn Watson know they stick, 1:02:28.080 --> 1:02:29.920 but it's like it's like I was saying about the 1:02:29.960 --> 1:02:32.720 Patriots earlier, like the Texans. He doesn't have anybody throw 1:02:32.800 --> 1:02:36.320 to anymore, like he's running out of people. Coute is 1:02:36.360 --> 1:02:38.640 like his leading. You know, but you don't even know 1:02:38.800 --> 1:02:41.160 some of these receivers names in where Chad Hanson is 1:02:41.200 --> 1:02:44.280 like their number two wide out now you know, like 1:02:44.320 --> 1:02:46.920 I don't. What is Chad Hanson ranked in the history 1:02:46.920 --> 1:02:53.840 of anteon receivers? What ranking is Chad Hanson one thousand seven? 1:02:56.800 --> 1:02:59.240 Aaron no ranking? Aaron is not answering the question. He 1:02:59.280 --> 1:03:04.479 refuses to answer. What's the question? Question? I was joking around. 1:03:04.520 --> 1:03:07.720 I said, in the pantheon of wide receivers, what ranking 1:03:07.800 --> 1:03:14.440 was Chad Hansen? The number very low, very low. I 1:03:14.480 --> 1:03:17.440 believe he heard the question. He was acting like you 1:03:17.480 --> 1:03:20.800 did here. Final two. Final two questions, gentlemen, Uh, if 1:03:20.800 --> 1:03:23.520 we had to pick one of the big favorites that 1:03:23.640 --> 1:03:26.040 you felt is the most likely to lose outright, which 1:03:26.080 --> 1:03:29.080 favorite would that be? Will define them as? Should we 1:03:29.080 --> 1:03:31.080 go with six? Let's go with six? This is interesting 1:03:31.080 --> 1:03:34.360 This week six point favorites are Greater Buffalo at Denver 1:03:34.440 --> 1:03:36.560 six point favorites Green Bay eight and a half point 1:03:36.560 --> 1:03:39.040 favorites hosting Carolina. Those are the Saturday games. The other 1:03:39.120 --> 1:03:44.200 candidates Tennessee eleven point favorites hosting We don't know yet 1:03:44.200 --> 1:03:46.560 if it's a Matt Stafford or non Matt Stafford Detroit 1:03:46.640 --> 1:03:49.840 Lions team uh, Tampa Bay six point favorites on the 1:03:49.920 --> 1:03:53.280 road against Atlanta. God, there's tons of these. Indianapolis seven 1:03:53.360 --> 1:03:57.480 and a half point favorites at home against Houston, Baltimore thirteen, 1:03:57.600 --> 1:04:00.880 twelve and a half point favorites hosting Jacksonville, Ram seventeen 1:04:00.920 --> 1:04:02.880 and a half, now hosting the Jets, wile it's already 1:04:02.880 --> 1:04:07.440 seventeen and a half, Arizona six and a half over Philadelphia, 1:04:07.760 --> 1:04:10.640 and of course Pittsburgh Monday night thirteen points. My goodness, 1:04:10.640 --> 1:04:14.200 what a week. Thirteen point favorite The chasm between the 1:04:14.240 --> 1:04:15.800 halves and the half nots okay, Todd, you can do 1:04:15.920 --> 1:04:17.360 yours first, you can step ahead of again, and I 1:04:17.440 --> 1:04:20.440 have a lot of I have. Uh. I think the 1:04:20.440 --> 1:04:23.920 Atlanta Falcons could upset that the Tom Brady's I really 1:04:23.960 --> 1:04:26.960 do the Atlanta Falcons defense, and maybe Aaron can tell 1:04:27.040 --> 1:04:31.160 us about this. I think Atlanta has improved very very 1:04:31.320 --> 1:04:35.040 very much on defense in the last say, eight weeks 1:04:35.040 --> 1:04:37.400 of this season, and I think their defense might even 1:04:37.440 --> 1:04:39.520 be above average. Now I don't know if that's true 1:04:39.520 --> 1:04:43.919 by the stats are ratings since Rockey Morris took over. Wow, 1:04:43.960 --> 1:04:46.360 look at that, see Mikey and I was saying, how 1:04:46.360 --> 1:04:49.000 many weeks? Was I saying Atlanta is getting better on defense? 1:04:49.120 --> 1:04:51.560 I kept pounding you with that. Anyways, I think the 1:04:51.600 --> 1:04:55.320 Atlanta Falcons defense. Did you say I said you like 1:04:55.440 --> 1:04:59.760 you specifically? It's like I'm the one my Auntireeheyte Morris, 1:05:00.000 --> 1:05:03.560 It's right, No, Atlanta, And I'm just saying, we're just 1:05:03.600 --> 1:05:06.200 saying I kept saying Atlanta keeps getting better and better 1:05:06.200 --> 1:05:08.360 on defense. I really think they're not bad. They're they're 1:05:08.400 --> 1:05:10.920 pretty good deed on defense. Now you have to you 1:05:10.960 --> 1:05:13.720 have to deal with Matt boiling hot water. But you know, 1:05:13.800 --> 1:05:16.400 other than that, maybe they can win the game. I 1:05:16.400 --> 1:05:18.880 I'll take I think Atlanta. I do think there's some 1:05:18.920 --> 1:05:20.840 wisdom there that we we tend to think of Atlanta 1:05:20.840 --> 1:05:22.960 as an offensive team and as a poor defensive team. 1:05:22.960 --> 1:05:25.760 That's not the case. The other one, Aaron is Seattle. 1:05:25.840 --> 1:05:30.080 Hasn't their defense improved as this season has gone on. Yeah, 1:05:30.120 --> 1:05:32.000 I have to run numbers. I happen to have run 1:05:32.040 --> 1:05:33.880 Atlanta for somebody, so it's I've got it on the 1:05:33.880 --> 1:05:38.120 tip of my brain. But Seattle is absolutely improved on defense. Alright, Aaron, 1:05:38.160 --> 1:05:39.720 of the big favorites, who's the most likely to lose 1:05:39.720 --> 1:05:42.040 out right? In your opinion? Todd says it's the Tampa 1:05:42.040 --> 1:05:46.560 Bay Bucks. I think I'm gonna go. I think I'm 1:05:46.560 --> 1:05:49.640 also going to say the Tampa Bay Bus. Yeah, because Atlanta, 1:05:50.360 --> 1:05:53.160 because the Atlanta offense could get really powerful and their 1:05:53.240 --> 1:05:57.200 defense has improved. But I mean, our numbers really like 1:05:57.280 --> 1:06:00.600 Tampa Bay. But I think of these teams in Atlanta 1:06:00.640 --> 1:06:03.680 as the team most likely to pull it upset Shaws. 1:06:04.960 --> 1:06:07.000 They were not They were not an option. I thought 1:06:07.000 --> 1:06:09.120 there were six point favorite. No, they're five and a half. 1:06:09.160 --> 1:06:13.800 They were not listed. Let you know what, it's a team. 1:06:13.840 --> 1:06:17.040 It's very like I think we should let Mike get 1:06:17.040 --> 1:06:18.800 away with that girl because it is kind of close, 1:06:19.200 --> 1:06:21.800 all right, But you guys didn't have that option, they 1:06:21.840 --> 1:06:24.360 would have still taken the Buccaneers. Would you have still 1:06:24.360 --> 1:06:28.200 taken the Buccaneers? I take I would. If I don't 1:06:28.200 --> 1:06:30.040 have the Seahawks, I'd take the Buccaneers. For me, it's 1:06:30.040 --> 1:06:33.080 the Buccaneers. If it's Dwayne Haskins, I'm taking the Buccaneers. 1:06:33.720 --> 1:06:36.400 If it's Dwayne Haskins, I'm taking the Buccaneers. Clim Haskins 1:06:36.440 --> 1:06:38.640 ain't pulling no upset. You know he's still in Minnesota, 1:06:38.720 --> 1:06:41.000 Gold and Gopher Land. Uh in the and and the 1:06:41.080 --> 1:06:44.360 final question, we live in a bizarro world, including tonight's game. 1:06:44.360 --> 1:06:46.400 They're sixteen of them, no one has a buy anymore, 1:06:46.800 --> 1:06:49.600 and you were forced to bet fifteen of them. You 1:06:49.680 --> 1:06:52.080 were forced to bet fifteen of them. But there was 1:06:52.160 --> 1:06:54.760 one game on the line that you want no part 1:06:54.760 --> 1:06:57.400 of whatsoever? Aaron, What's the game you would want no 1:06:57.520 --> 1:07:02.640 part of? Here? Chicago, Minnesota? Chicago, Minnesota, Mikey game you 1:07:02.680 --> 1:07:04.480 want no part of. I don't want any part of 1:07:04.480 --> 1:07:07.040 the Titans Lions because the Stafford situation. I don't know 1:07:07.040 --> 1:07:10.320 if he's playing or not, Todd, I don't want any 1:07:10.360 --> 1:07:13.760 part of tonight's game. I think tonight's game is ridiculous. 1:07:13.920 --> 1:07:16.240 What the hell is gonna happen here? The Chargers? Who 1:07:16.240 --> 1:07:19.000 knows what you get with the Chargers. So I don't 1:07:19.000 --> 1:07:21.840 want any part of this. This charge of Rader nonsense. 1:07:22.160 --> 1:07:25.320 Tennessee Detroit is the obvious one with Stafford status. Uh 1:07:25.360 --> 1:07:27.320 and then again tonight because we don't know if those 1:07:27.320 --> 1:07:30.360 guys are playing on the Chargers yet. But if I 1:07:30.400 --> 1:07:34.080 were to remove those two from the equation, I think 1:07:34.120 --> 1:07:38.880 Baltimore Jacksonville for me, with that number is the one. Again, 1:07:38.920 --> 1:07:42.520 Baltimore is so dependent on game script. Do they fall behind, 1:07:43.400 --> 1:07:44.880 do they go If they go ahead, they could win 1:07:44.920 --> 1:07:47.680 this by seventy points, but if they fall behind, just 1:07:47.800 --> 1:07:49.640 I always worry about them. So I'll just say that 1:07:49.680 --> 1:07:51.600 one because it's a big number. I mean, I'm sure 1:07:51.640 --> 1:07:55.160 they'll win, but by how much I don't know. That 1:07:55.200 --> 1:07:57.760 would be mine. Aaron, speaking of Baltimore, I don't think 1:07:57.760 --> 1:08:00.760 Baltimore and defense is that great. What's your opinion on that? 1:08:01.120 --> 1:08:03.919 We have them a thon defense this year? So that's 1:08:03.920 --> 1:08:06.280 pretty higher than I would have thought. What happened the 1:08:06.280 --> 1:08:08.880 other night was perplexing, wasn't it? Against Cleveland? They couldn't 1:08:08.880 --> 1:08:12.880 get him off the field. They were not defense against Cleveland. Yeah, 1:08:13.880 --> 1:08:15.800 they would lose. They lost a lot of guys injuries. 1:08:15.840 --> 1:08:17.280 They had a lot of guys go out with injuries 1:08:17.280 --> 1:08:19.559 in that game. They did as the game progressed, Aaron, 1:08:19.600 --> 1:08:23.960 where does the Rams defense rank? We have the Rams 1:08:24.000 --> 1:08:30.120 defense right now? Third? Who's number one? Aaron? Number one 1:08:30.160 --> 1:08:33.599 defense is Pittsburgh? Okay, I would rather have the Rams 1:08:33.640 --> 1:08:37.240 defense in Pittsburgh defense. I I Pittsburgh is a good defense, 1:08:37.240 --> 1:08:40.439 but I as a Pittsburgh star or enzer, I think 1:08:40.439 --> 1:08:42.600 they're a little overrated. I'd rather have the Rams. What 1:08:42.880 --> 1:08:45.080 do you do you you really like believe in that? 1:08:45.320 --> 1:08:48.880 Or you do you think Pittsburgh defense Pittsburgh? I mean 1:08:48.960 --> 1:08:51.400 when everybody's healthy, and they haven't been the last week 1:08:51.479 --> 1:08:53.519 or two, right, Joe Hayden was out last week, but 1:08:53.600 --> 1:08:56.640 everybody's healthy. I believe Pittsburgh is the best defense in 1:08:56.640 --> 1:08:59.800 the league. Yeah, the problem. Number two, it's number two. 1:09:00.400 --> 1:09:02.639 Number two is New Orleans. But they wouldn't be number 1:09:02.640 --> 1:09:07.200 two if the Kendall Hainton game didn't take pH interesting. 1:09:07.400 --> 1:09:10.240 So it's basically pittsburgher the Rams. You feel the two 1:09:10.240 --> 1:09:15.360 top defenses? Yeah? And then New Orleans? How about Washington? 1:09:15.400 --> 1:09:20.320 Where do they rank now? Fourth? Fourth? And who's the 1:09:20.400 --> 1:09:23.160 number two? In family feud we're getting we're gonna run 1:09:23.160 --> 1:09:26.360 the board. We're gonna assume you've killed the city. Number 1:09:26.360 --> 1:09:28.679 one in offense, and then who are now three day 1:09:28.680 --> 1:09:32.960 now number one in offense to the city last week? 1:09:33.640 --> 1:09:37.400 And then who's number three? The number three offense right 1:09:37.439 --> 1:09:43.760 now is Tennessee. Okay, Aaron, thank you the founder of 1:09:43.840 --> 1:09:46.720 Football Outsiders. Uh tell the people where they should go 1:09:46.800 --> 1:09:48.519 and get all the stuff a Football Outsiders there, it 1:09:48.560 --> 1:09:50.040 is right on your wall. Well they gotta they can't 1:09:50.040 --> 1:09:53.760 go to your wall though. Football Outsiders dot Com is 1:09:53.800 --> 1:09:57.320 the website check out all of our content. FO plus 1:09:57.400 --> 1:09:59.880 is the subscription product with a big database of all 1:09:59.920 --> 1:10:01.920 the istv o A splits going all the way back 1:10:01.960 --> 1:10:06.160 to five picks against the spread, fantasy projections every week. 1:10:07.120 --> 1:10:09.360 A bunch of stuff we're working on for the off season. 1:10:09.439 --> 1:10:12.040 So Football Outsiders dot Com all right, and Erin, I 1:10:12.040 --> 1:10:13.720 look forward to you and I do are one on 1:10:13.720 --> 1:10:15.920 one on the radio side for a segment after the 1:10:15.920 --> 1:10:18.800 regular season prior to the postseason. Absolutely we do some 1:10:18.840 --> 1:10:22.479 playoff previewing. Man, I apparcially really enjoyed your Out of 1:10:22.520 --> 1:10:25.400 all our guests, I really enjoyed you. Thank you. Definitely 1:10:25.400 --> 1:10:27.880 in the top two, who was who was else in 1:10:27.920 --> 1:10:30.599 the top two? No, I never like to make people 1:10:30.680 --> 1:10:36.519 number one without everybody everybody else tied for first. What 1:10:35.240 --> 1:10:39.760 kind of because I really enjoy the whole rankings of 1:10:39.760 --> 1:10:42.559 the different defenses and stuff like that. That's a whole show. Yeah, 1:10:42.600 --> 1:10:45.880 we could do a whole thing, all that historical I 1:10:45.920 --> 1:10:48.639 love it. I freaking love it now now. But I 1:10:48.640 --> 1:10:50.960 I just never say anyone's a top without thinking through 1:10:51.000 --> 1:10:53.120 all the things. So you're definitely in the top two. 1:10:53.280 --> 1:10:55.960 But I just went to I want to apologize for 1:10:56.080 --> 1:10:58.200 the for the other two people who couldn't even get 1:10:58.320 --> 1:11:00.559 ladies from the back of the round to the thing, 1:11:00.920 --> 1:11:03.479 and they're just a disaster errand so thank you for 1:11:03.520 --> 1:11:08.200 putting up with their really poor professionalism and they're ranting 1:11:08.200 --> 1:11:10.800 and raving against one of the great geniuses of our time. 1:11:10.840 --> 1:11:15.960 Thank you, I'm sure. In Aaron's accomplishments founding Football Outsiders, 1:11:16.000 --> 1:11:19.120 appearing on Late Night with Seth Meyers getting a vote 1:11:19.160 --> 1:11:22.519 now from the Associated Press for all of football's prestigious awards. 1:11:22.720 --> 1:11:25.880 That you're ranking him number two is among his career achievements. 1:11:25.920 --> 1:11:29.400 I didn't know. No, See, that's perfect way to reward 1:11:29.520 --> 1:11:32.080 what I'm saying. I said, he's definitely in the top two, 1:11:32.120 --> 1:11:34.599 which could mean he's number one. It just means I 1:11:34.600 --> 1:11:38.200 haven't thought through all the guests to invariably give him 1:11:38.280 --> 1:11:40.920 number one. But thank you for changing what I said 1:11:41.160 --> 1:11:45.479 in pure UH speak, and and and and trying to 1:11:45.680 --> 1:11:47.800 manipulate what I said when it's not what I said. 1:11:47.880 --> 1:11:50.800 I think stand correctly. I take without doing a deep dive. 1:11:50.960 --> 1:11:53.040 Brent is probably number one in your mind with the 1:11:53.040 --> 1:11:56.360 Amy Colney Barrett discussion. But we had Brent Musburger on 1:11:56.400 --> 1:11:58.280 Aaron and the first thing he did was get political 1:11:58.320 --> 1:12:04.720 on us. It was very uncomfortable. Yeah, pass, yeah, say 1:12:08.320 --> 1:12:10.599 Mike Palm. You U should have seen Mike Palm pandering 1:12:10.680 --> 1:12:13.519 to Brent like you've never seen fer. He looked like 1:12:13.600 --> 1:12:18.200 Mitch McConnell. He was unbelievable with the pandering. He was like, oh, Brand, 1:12:19.400 --> 1:12:25.639 Oh I love when you breakfast in bed that one 1:12:25.720 --> 1:12:31.720 time room? What was it like? Oh, by the way 1:12:31.760 --> 1:12:36.439 I love you? Did I mention I love you? Brand? Anyway? 1:12:36.479 --> 1:12:39.320 There was that, Aaron, we appreciate it. We've taken enough 1:12:39.360 --> 1:12:42.120 of your time. I really appreciate. I hope this wasn't 1:12:42.160 --> 1:12:44.479 as painful as it might have seemed to us watching 1:12:44.520 --> 1:12:47.960 you'd endure this. No, I made it through safely. He 1:12:48.120 --> 1:12:51.599 did the rhythm has been has been a I got 1:12:51.600 --> 1:12:53.880 the rhythm, yes, yeah, you have to have a certain 1:12:53.880 --> 1:12:55.800 you know, water off a duck's back and when you 1:12:55.840 --> 1:12:57.680 come on here like ed Fing who just gets right 1:12:57.720 --> 1:13:02.880 into it. HD. Just that's right there. Uh four Mike 1:13:02.960 --> 1:13:05.800 Palm for top wish that have for Aaron Shots, Gil Alexander, 1:13:05.840 --> 1:13:07.800 thank you so much for listening. Good luck with all 1:13:07.840 --> 1:13:11.200 your bets in week fifteen. Let's go survivor. Let's get 1:13:11.200 --> 1:13:13.680 through eighty two left. We'll see how many next week. 1:13:13.680 --> 1:13:31.240 Thanks for listening. Yeah,