1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is 2 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:11,119 Speaker 1: good all right. Here we go from there throwing in 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: so I'm saying it's a cash to star. 4 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 2: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble, 5 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 2: they go to win. 6 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: God, that's incredible. 7 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money, all right. 8 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabine if you want to pull. 9 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: And we are underway. 10 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 2: Hello, and welcome to another episode of strong Side Fridays 11 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 2: here on the Action Network podcast. I'm your host, Brandon 12 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: Anderson here with Rahem Palmer. We are here two times 13 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: a week to give you everything you need for the NFL. 14 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: It is week eleven. We are ready for some football. 15 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: It's a tough slate. This week from a betting standpoint, 16 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 2: is a tasty slate from a football standpoint. Lots of 17 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 2: really interesting and freaking matchups. I'm excited to talk about 18 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 2: them today. Rahim, how are you feeling about this Week's go? 19 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: Really good about this Week's a lot of games which 20 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: you know are going to have some playoff implications. We're 21 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: gonna have one team going one way, teams going another way. 22 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 1: And I just think it's a good week to make 23 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: some money. So I'm excited It's always a good week 24 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: to make some money. 25 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 2: You know, we were texting earlier this week trying to 26 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 2: think about we always do these three marquee games now 27 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 2: on Friday, and we had like seven games this week 28 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 2: that we were thinking about doing. So a lot of 29 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,559 Speaker 2: good games to talk about here. We're excited to break 30 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 2: them down. Of course. Reminder to download the app if 31 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 2: you haven't done that yet, what are you waiting for? 32 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 2: You got to get the app. Odds today on this 33 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 2: podcast are from bet MGM, the official odds provider of 34 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast. We'll get to our three games, 35 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 2: we'll do our best bets and our look ahead later. 36 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: Let's get down to business and hit our first game. 37 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 2: Let's get down. 38 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: Let's get down to business. 39 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 2: So let's get down. 40 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: Let's get down to business. Let's get down. Let's get down. 41 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 2: So the big game that sneakily maybe maybe, if they're 42 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: finally back, could possibly be a Super Bowl preview the 43 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys the Kansas City Chiefs, the big one. I 44 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 2: think that of all the games we knew, even we 45 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 2: had seven games of narrow down, this one had to 46 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: be on the picks. We had to talk about this 47 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 2: one on one side. You've got a loaded team, tons 48 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 2: of weapons, power all over the field, a serious MVP candidate, 49 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 2: a real shot of the Super Bowl. And then you 50 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 2: got the Chiefs. The Cowboys they're legit. The Chiefs maybe 51 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 2: are legit. So here's my first question for you. Chiefs 52 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 2: are favorite here, they're at home two and a half points. 53 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 2: Are the Chiefs back? What percentage back? Do you think 54 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 2: the Chiefs are? 55 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 3: I don't think the Chiefs are back. 56 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: I think they played Raiders team, which was the perfect 57 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: matchup that refused to play the too deep shout and 58 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: every other team is playing. Do you think the Chiefs 59 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 1: are bad? 60 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 2: Yeah? I also agree that I think that the Chiefs 61 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 2: are backer than I thought that they were a week ago. 62 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 2: I would say the Chiefs are sixty percent back. I 63 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 2: thought that they were well below fifty percent before, So 64 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 2: I'm giving them some credit. You know, a lot of 65 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 2: what we saw on Sunday was the Raiders and that defense. 66 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 2: We talked about that on the Sunday Night Pod. I 67 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 2: do think some of it we got to give credit 68 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 2: to the Chiefs. Also, Tyreek and Kelsey looked a little 69 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 2: bit better, and I think Mahomes was making better decisions. 70 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 2: You know a little bit more of kind of that 71 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 2: second career stage for Aaron Rodgers of all, right, well 72 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 2: this is what I've got. I'm gonna take what's there. 73 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: I'm gonna check it down, I'm gonna do these short passes. 74 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 2: I'm gonna get the ball into my hands and my playmakers. 75 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 2: It did feel like the Chiefs are adjusting to what 76 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 2: they've been seeing from all these defenses all season. So 77 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:58,839 Speaker 2: I think it was some of both. I think more 78 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 2: of it was the Raiders. So this line, it's two 79 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 2: and a half. So I'm curious. Two things. I want 80 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 2: to know, what does your model make this line? And 81 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 2: what do you think this line would have been before 82 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 2: the season started. 83 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 1: Before the season started, this line would have seven. Yeah, 84 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: I think so, Like I personally have it at a pick. 85 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 2: Since the season started, your model has moved, as you think, Well, 86 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 2: not that your model would have made at seven, but 87 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 2: we think the look that had seven, So this has 88 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 2: moved a whole touchdown. Is that fair do you think? 89 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 2: Or have we moved too far away from the Chiefs. 90 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: Or when you look at the Chiefs, let's break down 91 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: the Chiefs. If you look at the Chiefs defense, they're 92 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: thirty first in EPA for play on defense, thirty second 93 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: early down success rate on deep. 94 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 3: This is one of the worst defenses in the league. 95 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: And they're playing a Cowboys team which is top five 96 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: and Hicks play top five early down success rate, top 97 00:04:57,839 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: down a success rate and. 98 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 3: Can run the wall. 99 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 1: What can the Chiefs not do? They can't stop the run. 100 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: So if you can't stop the running, you got to 101 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: deal with Ezekiel Elliott. 102 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 3: You got to deal with Poler. You're in trouble. So 103 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 3: I think this is a fair line. 104 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: And it's not only the Cowboys are able to run, 105 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: but they have Amari Cooper, they have Michael Gotup coming 106 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: back this week. This is an explosive Cowboys offense. And 107 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 1: look at the last couple of weeks. Who do they 108 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: play Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, a Raiders team with no 109 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 1: Henry Rug So what's your thoughts? 110 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you and everything that you just said. 111 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 2: I think that you know, the Chiefs defense has looked better, 112 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 2: but against two, you know there's a reason that you 113 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 2: know you and I use dval On here. The reason 114 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 2: that we go to dv Ali is because it takes 115 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 2: into account the schedule. It takes into account who are 116 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 2: you playing? And the Chiefs defense by EPA, which doesn't 117 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 2: count for that as much. They're up to twenty first 118 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 2: the last four weeks. Chiefs defense for the whole season 119 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 2: on DVOA is only thirtieth. They were bottom. Now they're 120 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 2: two from the bottom. They've gotten better, certainly, it's hard 121 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 2: to relate. Genuinely, they couldn't get worse. They're historically among 122 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 2: the worst defenses ever at the beginning of the season. 123 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 2: You literally only can get better. But dv AWAY is 124 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 2: warning us they haven't gotten that much better because they 125 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 2: haven't really done it against anyone yet. The one game 126 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 2: in the stretch where they did play a tough for 127 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 2: offense was Tennessee. They lost that game and they barely 128 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:26,359 Speaker 2: can move the ball at all and they were not good. 129 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:31,599 Speaker 2: So Dallas is a totally different test. This is a 130 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 2: This is a major major offensive weapon and scheme. Kellen 131 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 2: Moore is really mixing things up while calling plays. Michael 132 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 2: Gallup I think is an underrated return. Like you mentioned, 133 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 2: getting him back on the field looking healthy. He was 134 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 2: making big plays already last week. And with Gallup and 135 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 2: Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb, with those three it's it's 136 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 2: the most talented receiving crew in the league. I don't 137 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: know how you stop the offense. So the covers are 138 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,119 Speaker 2: a score? Can the Chiefs keep up with something? 139 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: Here's an interesting thing about this game, and I really 140 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 1: wanted to talk about the total because Cowboys are obviously 141 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: missing Randy Gregory. They they're just they're gonna they're gonna 142 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: struggle to slow down this Chiefs offense. But I don't 143 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: know if that necessarily translates to an over. You know, 144 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: this over is getting smashed. This is one of those 145 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: what they call a fire drill over where you have 146 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: two explosive offensive teams. This total open at fifty three 147 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: and a half. We're now up to fifty five and 148 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: fifty six to some spots. But the thing that concerns 149 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: me about this total is that I could see the 150 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 1: Cowboys sitting on the ball and having no stretches where 151 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 1: they run the ball for five minutes. Even though they've 152 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 1: been an explosive offense. You still got Ezekiel, Ellie, you 153 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: still got power. I don't know how I feil about this, 154 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: this game going over. 155 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's interesting because it's easy as someone that 156 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 2: doesn't play a lot of totals. It's easy to look 157 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 2: at this game, see the offenses, see the Chiefs being back, 158 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 2: all Caps back, and being like, all right, forty five, 159 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 2: forty two, it's gonna be one of those like remember 160 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 2: that Monday Night game a couple of years ago in 161 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 2: Mexico City with the Rams and the Chiefs and it 162 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 2: was just literally who has the ball last? They're gonna 163 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 2: score every possession, like you stop a team for a 164 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 2: field goal and it felt like you won the game. 165 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 2: It's easy to look at this game and see that. 166 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 2: I think though, that that also is not giving Dallas' 167 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 2: defense enough credit, Like you're right, they're missing some guys 168 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 2: on the line as a concern, but I think the 169 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 2: defense for the Cowboys has proven that they can hang 170 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 2: like they between how well they've played and how inconsistent 171 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 2: the Chiefs have been, I don't think the Cowboys are 172 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 2: giving up forty in this game like they could. I'm 173 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 2: a little worried about Treyvon Diggs getting beat on a 174 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,079 Speaker 2: couple of double moves. I'm very interested to see what 175 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 2: happened with the Digs in this game. Like his whole 176 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 2: Defensive Player of the Year candidacy, either he intercepts Patrick 177 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 2: Mahomes a time or two that's certainly in play, or 178 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 2: it goes very much the other way when the line 179 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 2: is a field goal in his favor or less. So 180 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 2: you know, he's minus two and a half here or 181 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 2: even toward an underdog ten two and one against the spread. 182 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 2: So when he's not a big favorite, he's dominating. But 183 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 2: I look at the spread and it feels like the 184 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 2: books are begging me to just throw my money at 185 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 2: the Chiefs. The Chiefs are back. 186 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like I said, my model makes the 187 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: game of pick up, and with a lot of these lines, 188 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:28,959 Speaker 1: you have to use your priors. You can't throw away 189 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: priors because football is just such a small sample sport 190 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: that you don't want to throw away everything you know 191 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,319 Speaker 1: about these teams before the season. And obviously the Chiefs 192 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 1: had some really bad turnover love, so I understand it. 193 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 2: So yeah, I get it. I'll just take the Cowboys. 194 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 2: I love the two and a half here, I'd like 195 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 2: the three, but I don't think it's gonna get there. 196 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 2: We know that road dogs short road dogs especially have 197 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 2: been very good this season, and I like Dallas. I 198 00:09:56,679 --> 00:10:00,839 Speaker 2: also think if Dallas wins this might be your last 199 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 2: window to really get odds on Dallas futures Dak Prescott. 200 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 2: I'm seeing at plus eight hundred MVP at some books. 201 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 2: If Dak goes on the road to Kansas City and 202 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 2: has a big game against Pat Mahomes, I think that 203 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 2: this is your last shot to get in on Dak Prescott. 204 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 2: I've been on Tom Brady all season. That's my guy. 205 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 2: I'm getting a little worried, and Dak is the hedge 206 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 2: that I'm making. I just put it into the app 207 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 2: this morning with my bet. I think you need to 208 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,079 Speaker 2: get a little piece of Dak here. Do you think though? Oh? 209 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: I definitely agree with that. And obviously, the Cowboys have 210 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: the Raiders next week on Thanksgiving their lay at seven, 211 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: so I almost wonder if you want to grab a 212 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 1: little minus seven against the Raiders in advance that because 213 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 1: if they win this game, the line is going to 214 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: go up. 215 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 2: So I like that. It's a look ahead, look ahead, 216 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 2: We're looking ahead of our segment before we get there, 217 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,439 Speaker 2: a little Thanksgiving action. So I'm Cowboys plus two and 218 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 2: a half. What is your best play on the sun? 219 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: I think I think I'm leaning with the Cowboys on 220 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:58,839 Speaker 1: this one too. I would personally buy this up to three. 221 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: I'm not really a big and a buying points, but 222 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: I think if you could find a cheap out to 223 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: three at minus one twenty five minus one thirty, you 224 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:11,439 Speaker 1: can pay ten to twenty cents. I don't think you're 225 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:13,719 Speaker 1: you're losing too much by buying on te three. I 226 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: think I saw you put them in a teaser. This 227 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 1: is a pretty obvious Dallas teaser spot two. Do you 228 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: like them here? 229 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 4: Oh? 230 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely like them on a teaser. I think 231 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: you tease that up through to eight and a half, 232 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 1: crossing off those key numbers of six and seven. I 233 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: think you're in a good spot here. 234 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 2: All right, let's head north to Minnesota where my Vikings 235 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 2: are hosting the Green Bay Packers, the big rivalry Division game. 236 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 2: The line is dropping a little bit. The Packers are 237 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 2: favorite on the road here, but I'm seeing at bet 238 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 2: mgm our official adds provider Packers minus one and a 239 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 2: half on the road. As we podcast, the Packers got 240 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 2: blown out week one. They have covered nine straight games 241 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 2: since then. They went thirteen and three both the last 242 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 2: two seasons. You and I have been talking about and 243 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 2: waiting for ever for the Packers regression. Is it ever 244 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 2: going to come. 245 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: Look, there's a Packers fan that humiliates us. They claim 246 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: that we pick against the Packers every week, which we 247 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: which we don't do. We just picked against the Packers sometimes, 248 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 1: and I mean, unfortunately it hasn't gone our way with 249 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. 250 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 3: It didn't go our. 251 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: Way with the Washington football team, who really should have 252 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,559 Speaker 1: won that game to got into the Reizones seven times, 253 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: didn't score. 254 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 3: But I'm picking against. 255 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: The Packers this week. There's a lot of sharp money 256 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: on the on the Minnesota Vikings. We actually gave this 257 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: out on the Hot Read and actually got to three 258 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: at one point, which I said it would. So, I mean, 259 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:39,679 Speaker 1: what's your thoughts on this game. I know you're a 260 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:43,000 Speaker 1: Vikings fan. Obviously I'm really high on the Vikings. I 261 00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: want to hear what you're thinking. 262 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, I know you you've been You've been backing the 263 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 2: Vikings a lot here and correctly so I should add 264 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 2: I understand the read of liking the Vikings here because 265 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 2: I think that these teams are pretty even teams. You 266 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,599 Speaker 2: wouldn't think so from the standings. The standings have the 267 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 2: Packers way out ahead the perception is that the Packers 268 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 2: are the Packers like always, They're the thirteen and three 269 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 2: Packers riding all the way. The Vikings, though, I think, 270 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 2: is where the perception is off. If you look at 271 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 2: DVA again, where it's taking into account schedule, strength and 272 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,319 Speaker 2: everything else, Minnesota actually is the better team. Minnesota is 273 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 2: ninth in DVOA. Green Bay is twelfth. However, here's the 274 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 2: thing about that. Again, we're taking into account the whole season. 275 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 2: The Packers are getting dinged pretty hard, I think for 276 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 2: the Saints game, and that's a long time ago and 277 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 2: not super relevant to me anymore. They're also I think 278 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 2: getting danged pretty hard for the Jordan Love game where 279 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:42,839 Speaker 2: they missed Aaron Rodgers and where, and probably not getting 280 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 2: enough credit for that win over the Cardinals where they're 281 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 2: without Devanta Adams, because it's not taking into account who's 282 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 2: on the field and dad Aaron Rodgers play, and when 283 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 2: your offense lays a complete egg against the terrible Chiefs defense, 284 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 2: then that is going to really take your offensive rankings there. 285 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 2: So you know, Green Bay Minnesota, they're both top twelve 286 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 2: in offense and defense on DVOA. But I do think 287 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 2: that they're a little bit underrated by the metrics. If 288 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 2: I'm looking across the board, here's the mismatch that I see. 289 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 2: Both run defenses are pretty bad. Neither one has really 290 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 2: stopped to run this season. Ad Dillon is in. What 291 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 2: do you think about the difference from Aaron Jones to 292 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 2: Aja Dillon? Does that matter to you? 293 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: I think it matters a ton because when you think 294 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 1: about it, Aaron Jones is a big in the passing game. 295 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: He's more of a nets and this skill type runner, 296 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: he's a little bit more shifty. Aj Dillon is more 297 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: of a power bet and I think that limits them 298 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: a ton. 299 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 3: And then you have to remember, like this Packers team is. 300 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 3: They're dealing with a ton of injuries, but at some 301 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 3: point how much can they overcome? 302 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 1: Look at this Packers team, you mentioned that they aren't 303 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: really performing like a thirteen and three team. They have 304 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: eight and two with the Podagora expectation of just six 305 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: point one wins, So this team is kind of escaping 306 00:14:58,160 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: on thin ice. 307 00:14:58,920 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 3: And then when you look at. 308 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 1: Defensively, the Corners have played well without Zire Alexander, but 309 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 1: you got to deal with Adam Dieling and Justin Jefferson 310 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 1: and Packers went thirteen eight and three last year, but 311 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: one of the teams that beat them was this Minnesota 312 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: Vikings team because. 313 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 3: They were able to run the ball so well. 314 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: Dvin Cook had thirty rushes for one hundred and sixty 315 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: three yards and three touchdowns on the ground alone, and 316 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: he added two touches for sixty three yards and another touchdown, 317 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 1: and this was at lambeau Field. So I think the 318 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: Vikings have all the advantages here. Obviously, they could run 319 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: the ball, they can establish the play action. This Vikings 320 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: team has led by seven points in every single game 321 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: and they played the NXT toughest schedule in the NFL. 322 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 2: Okay signing the pushback, I understand, I understand the Vikings love, 323 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 2: but it's not like the Vikings are healthy. Danil Hunter 324 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 2: the most important defensive player out for the season, and 325 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 2: we saw how the Vikings defense fell apart without him 326 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 2: last year. Anthony Barr, who's been really big and the 327 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 2: Packers game specifically, is out in this one. Michael Pearce, 328 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 2: who's a point in the run game out. Harrison Smith, 329 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 2: who's probably the second best defensive player, is a question mark. 330 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 2: With Covid still looks like he'll play it, but we 331 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 2: don't know. Like the defense for Minnesota, which is the 332 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 2: strength of the team, it's a big question mark right now, 333 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 2: and so green Bay is trending in the right direction. 334 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 2: Also the defense. If you look at their defensive DBA, 335 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 2: the first six weeks, Packers were number seventeen, since then 336 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 2: number six defense by DVOA, and I just think if 337 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 2: you look at the defenses, Minnesota's guys are getting hurt. 338 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 2: Green Bay is still missing their key guys, but they 339 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 2: figured out how to defend the wall even without them. 340 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: Their defense been playing well. But they played the Bears 341 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 1: justin fields who've struggled most of this year. They averaged 342 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: in sixteen points for game. In their last two games 343 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: they put up twenty seven and twenty four points. So 344 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: this is not offense that you're afraid of. They played 345 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 1: the Washington football team, and Washington football team got into 346 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: the red zone a million times. They played Kyler Murray 347 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 1: who was banged up, and then obviously they played Russell 348 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 1: Wilson who finger has been all jacked. And then the 349 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 1: Chiefs were struggling offensively against everybody. So I'm not I'm 350 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 1: still not totally boordant on his defense. And I think 351 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: when you have when you factor in the other losses, 352 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: at some point they can't continue to maintain at this level. 353 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 1: This Packers team is not gonna go sixteen and one. 354 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 2: We know that for sure. 355 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,919 Speaker 1: And this is a road game in Minnesota. And I 356 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,199 Speaker 1: know home foot advantage has disappeared in the NFL for 357 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: the most part. However, if there's one place that has 358 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,360 Speaker 1: home foot advantage outside of Denver where it does altitude, 359 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 1: it's Minnesota. And you notice as a fan. 360 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 2: So the other thing here is at minus one and 361 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 2: a half. Basically, the books are saying it's gonna be 362 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 2: close to late. Someone's gonna have to win it late. 363 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 2: And I think that's whereas the Vikings fan, I either 364 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 2: got Kirk Cousins late or I have Aaron Rodgers late, 365 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 2: and which one of those two do I want to 366 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 2: go with if it's a close game late. Rogers is 367 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 2: sixty three percent covering against the spread in the division. 368 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 2: He's sixty seven percent as a one score favorite. As 369 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 2: a one score division favorite, seventy two percent cover rate. 370 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 2: This is just what he does. He takes care of 371 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 2: these games. Kirk and Zimmer when it's a field goal 372 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 2: or less five to thirteen against the spread twenty eight percent. 373 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 2: So they're the trends do not like Kirk Cousins in 374 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 2: these close games, and they love Rogers in the close games. 375 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 2: At one and a half, I just think it'll take 376 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 2: the team I think is going to win, and I 377 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:30,919 Speaker 2: have to take Rogers. 378 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: This Packers team is not going to go sixteen and one. 379 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 2: We know that for sure. 380 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 1: And this is a road game in Minnesota, and I 381 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: know homefoot advantage has disappeared in the NFL for the 382 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 1: most part. However, if there's one place that has home 383 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: foot advantage outside of Denver where it does altitude, it's Minnesota. 384 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: And you notice as a fan, So. 385 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,119 Speaker 2: I do know. I do know. But the Mike Zimmer 386 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 2: at home trend that had been so strong for so 387 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 2: long over the last like two to two and a 388 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:05,680 Speaker 2: half seasons as really cratered. So yeah, your points are fair. 389 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 2: I think your point about the schedule especially is very fair. 390 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 2: Again DV always taking into account opponents strength. I think 391 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,120 Speaker 2: it'll be close. So we're head to head on that one. 392 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 2: I'm on the Packers, You're on the Vikings. Let's go 393 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 2: to our third game. I think that we might be 394 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 2: had to head on this one too. Saints and Eagles. 395 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,920 Speaker 1: I'm most excited to watch the Philadelphia Eagles lose as 396 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 1: a Cowboys fit. Like I mean to me, I think 397 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: this is this is the perfect matchup. When you look 398 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: at this matchup, what did the Eagles do? They go 399 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: did not didnity running the ball And I gave this 400 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 1: out on the hot read other day, but. 401 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 3: The Eagles have been running on the last three weeks. 402 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,640 Speaker 1: They've been running fifty eight percent of the time, and 403 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: they found success against the Lions to charges the Broncos 404 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 1: teams which are twenty nine thirty second twenty fourth in 405 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: football outside of rushing dv away. This week they're going 406 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 1: to be facing the New Orleans Saintety, which are first 407 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 1: in rushing dv away. I just give it up three 408 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: point nine yards for Carrie with the thirty two percent 409 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 1: rushing success rates. So I'm not expecting Boston Scott and 410 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 1: Jordan Howard to run. Wow. So I think seeing those 411 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 1: two battle back and forth and seeing what the Eagles 412 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 1: come up with and what Nick Nick Sirianni proves to do, 413 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: that that's what's excited to me. 414 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, that's I'm excited to watch that the 415 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 2: Philadelphia run game against the Saints run defense. Like the 416 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 2: Saints run d the elite all season long, the Eagles 417 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 2: their whole identity changed. I have the numbers on this. 418 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,400 Speaker 2: The first seven games of the season, the Eagles ran 419 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,399 Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty five times for five hundred and 420 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 2: forty seven yards. In three games since then, so this 421 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:40,159 Speaker 2: is versus seven one hundred and twenty five carries six 422 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 2: hundred and twenty six yards, So they have more yards running. 423 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 2: The last three games and the first seven games combined, 424 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 2: they've gone twenty four carries a game to forty two 425 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 2: carries the games. They're basically doubled literally doubled what they're running. 426 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,439 Speaker 2: So at first, when I looked at this, I was like, Okay, well, 427 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 2: this is the exact matchup you don't want as the Eagles. 428 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 2: It's the run defense built a stop, so then what 429 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,040 Speaker 2: and then it dug into it, and the then what 430 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 2: question is Jalen Hurts In the passing game, the Eagles 431 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 2: run defense has also been pretty good. The Saints run 432 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 2: a lot. Alvin Kamara is still a question mark with 433 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 2: his health, so then it comes down, Okay, which passing 434 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 2: team can do the damage If the run games end 435 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 2: up mostly being neutralized. Then who passes and it's easy 436 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 2: to be like, well, Sean Payton will figure it out. 437 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts actually has had very strong numbers over the 438 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 2: last month or so. His EPA has been very high, 439 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 2: his completion of percentage of expectation has been very high. 440 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,920 Speaker 2: His air yards is ten point nine per throw over 441 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 2: the last month. That leads the league. It's a very 442 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson sort of profile. It's like running the ball 443 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 2: a lot, and then when you do throw not so often, 444 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 2: but dialing it up deep and really hitting for the 445 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 2: big play. DeVante Smith has looked good. What do I 446 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 2: fear about the Saints passing attack? Trevor Cimien was the 447 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 2: third string guy, Like, his metrics are not good. He's 448 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 2: had a few nice throws, but the numbers I'm not 449 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 2: look good with him. Michael Thomas is out, Alvin Kamara, 450 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 2: we don't know how much he'll be able to give. Like, 451 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 2: why do I fear the Saints passing game? I think 452 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 2: if the run games get neutralized, I have to pick 453 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 2: the quarterback I trust, and I trust Jalen Hurts more 454 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 2: than Trevisian Right now. 455 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: I think this is this is totally off off base. 456 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: I'm so like when you look at the Eagles run defense, 457 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: they don't have a great run defense twentieth in rushing 458 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: dB away and twenty four for Russian success rate. So 459 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: I think these two offenses are quite similar in that 460 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,479 Speaker 1: they're gonna try to limit turnovers, they're going to try 461 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 1: to play conservative, and they're gonna try to run ball. 462 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 1: I think the Saints will be able to do that. 463 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 1: Board Like, look at last week, Javonte. 464 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:45,679 Speaker 3: Williams had eight carries for forty eight. 465 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 5: Yards six point yards per carry, Melvin Gordon had nine 466 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,679 Speaker 5: carries for forty five yards five yards of carry, and 467 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 5: the Broncos were in the red zone with the ability 468 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 5: to tie the. 469 00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: Game before Melvin Gordon fumbles the ball and then Darius 470 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: Slave runs the ball back and pretty much is the game. 471 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 1: You're gonna see a good game from Alvin Kamara, Mark Angel. 472 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see some Taysom Hill out there, 473 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna be able to run the 474 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,160 Speaker 1: ball and control And to me, Trevor Simey has proved 475 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: that at least in Sean Payton's offense, is that if 476 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 1: you can control the ball, you can control the offense, 477 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 1: you can make just enough plays enough to allow him. 478 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 3: To win that game. 479 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: And then also, look at this, this gotter is probably 480 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: one of their biggest turns. He's a concussion protocol and 481 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: could be out for this game. He didn't practice yesterday. 482 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,479 Speaker 1: So if you had to just slow down DeVonta Smith, 483 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: who did the Saints need to be worried about. 484 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a fair question. I just I 485 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,919 Speaker 2: feel like Kertz and Devonte Smith have proven enough of 486 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 2: a threat. I think I'm looking very myopically at the 487 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,680 Speaker 2: Eagles here, and I think that that is it could 488 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,359 Speaker 2: be very bad. But I think it's not necessarily fair 489 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,360 Speaker 2: for this particular team to look all the season long metrics, 490 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,439 Speaker 2: just because we've seen such a very different version of 491 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 2: them these last three weeks. So when I say that 492 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 2: they have been a good run defense over the last 493 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 2: five weeks, they've been number five in run defense by 494 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 2: EPA per play. When I look at their passing game, 495 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 2: they're number twenty three passing EPA for the season. They're 496 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 2: number one over the last four weeks. So maybe that's 497 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 2: too myopic, and that's possible, but maybe this is a 498 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 2: different version of the team and that they've found an 499 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 2: identity and really gotten going. If you do like the Eagles, 500 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 2: like I'm leaning, I think that the interesting play could 501 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,119 Speaker 2: be taking the Saints to miss the playoffs because I 502 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,199 Speaker 2: think the Saints do lose this game. That's three in 503 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 2: a row and NFC a wild card is very open, 504 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 2: especially if the Saints lose. 505 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be honest, I'm not quite sure. I kind 506 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:51,520 Speaker 1: of stand it on an individual game basis because I 507 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 1: feel like I was on a lot of these. I mean, 508 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 1: obviously I understood it against the Packers. I understood against 509 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 1: the Raiders. I understood it against the Lions because they 510 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 1: had that beat down loss to the Raiders and the 511 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: Lions are the Lions. I didn't quite understand it against 512 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 1: the Chargers. I was with them on a Broncos so 513 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 1: I get it week the week. But I just think 514 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:14,240 Speaker 1: in this match up, their advantages are gonna be neutralized. 515 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 1: And see, I disagree with you when you say this 516 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:21,680 Speaker 1: is a different Eagles team. There's a pretty clear diconomy 517 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: and how the Eagles warm. They've gotten lit up by 518 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 1: Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Justin Herbert 519 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: in their games against Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Ryan, Jarrett Golf, 520 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo. 521 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 2: We had to head. I'm on the Eagles, You're on 522 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 2: the Saints. I started second. I had to head on 523 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 2: this one. For the week, we did agree on the Cowboys. 524 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 2: Let's hear a quick word from our sponsor before we 525 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,959 Speaker 2: make a few best bets. 526 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:53,880 Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by bet mgm, 527 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 4: and to celebrate the twenty twenty one NFL season, bet 528 00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 4: mgm is offering a great sign up offer for our listeners, 529 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 4: a one thousand dollars risk free first bet. You just 530 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,400 Speaker 4: open an account at betmgm and make your first deposit, 531 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,919 Speaker 4: then make your first bet. 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That bet 540 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 4: can automatically be tracked in your action out, So open 541 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 4: an account today and make your first bet risk free 542 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 4: up to one thousand dollars. Just click on the link 543 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 4: in this episode description to get started. Must be twenty 544 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 4: one or older and physically located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, 545 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 4: West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada, or Pennsylvania. 546 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 2: Please gamble responsibly. 547 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 4: Gambling problem call one eight hund five two to two 548 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 4: forty seven hundred in Colorado and Nevada. One eight hundred 549 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 4: gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. One eight 550 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,439 Speaker 4: hundred nine with it in Indiana. One eight hundred two 551 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 4: seven zero seven to one one seven in Michigan, one 552 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,679 Speaker 4: eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine in Tennessee. 553 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 4: One eight hundred bets off in Iowa or one eight 554 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 4: eight eight five three to two thirty five hundred in Virginia. 555 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,359 Speaker 4: That's sync not available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening. 556 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 4: Let's get back to the show. 557 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 2: All right, week eleve in the best bets again. As 558 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,440 Speaker 2: all is, We're just gonna do radio show version here 559 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 2: We've got these up on the app, they're on actionnetwork 560 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 2: dot com, they're on social, we've got videos out, articles, 561 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 2: et cetera. Just want to give you a quick reminder 562 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 2: a few other plays we like. So Rahiem, what is 563 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,160 Speaker 2: one of your week eleven the best bets? 564 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 1: Oh with the wash It tam football team. Look, I 565 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 1: don't want to stand this line at all. The plus 566 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 1: three and a half against the Carolin of Panthers. When 567 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 1: has the Caroline of Panthers done to get this level 568 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 1: of respect within the market. 569 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 3: Look as we get we're catching ten points. 570 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,639 Speaker 1: One of my one of my favorite angle is to 571 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 1: look at a team who goes from an underdog, a 572 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 1: roll underdog, to a home favor, and I mean, at best, 573 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 1: this line should be two one. Look, these two teams 574 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: are equally matched teams. So I have this at pick them, 575 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: but the public is bet and this at a seventy 576 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 1: percent clip. 577 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 3: After their thirty four to tenth victory over. 578 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,400 Speaker 1: The Cardinals were missing Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, they were 579 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,600 Speaker 1: banged up all over the place. They built the hospital 580 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:31,159 Speaker 1: out of their players, and somehow the market isn't factoring 581 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,040 Speaker 1: Washington's twenty nine to nineteen went over Tom Brady in 582 00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 1: a Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Obviously, Washington be missing some guys 583 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 1: and Chase Young Mantes sweat. 584 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:41,440 Speaker 3: But this overall, when you look at the rest of 585 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 3: his team, they're getting healthy. Like you got all pro 586 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 3: guard Brandon Sheriff. 587 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 1: Bet you got Sam Kosman who might be playing offensive tackle. 588 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 1: You look at Terry McLaurin, you can look at Antonio Gibson. 589 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: Those are guys who got healthier after the bow week 590 00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 1: and if you kind of erase some of their unlucky 591 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 1: performances against the Packers and the Broncos. But he got 592 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 1: the red zone repeatedly and didn't score. I think they 593 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 1: were starting to regress it. To me, I think this 594 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 1: is a numbers play at plus three and a half, 595 00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 1: watch is a positive expected value proposition? And what do 596 00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 1: we expect for Cam Newton, Like, let us let's be honest, 597 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 1: Cam Newton, what do you do last year to make 598 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: you think that he's worthy of move in this line 599 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:23,320 Speaker 1: to three and a hook? 600 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 2: This is Broncers To me, Yeah, I think that's a 601 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 2: little unfair. I thought Cam was actually pretty good last 602 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 2: season before COVID, and it was so early and so 603 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 2: short that we only really remember how bad it went afterward. 604 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 2: I took Carolina in the hot read. I liked them 605 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 2: a lot just because Cam Newton one time against a 606 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 2: terrible pass defense, No Chase Young, no Montes sweat home 607 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 2: game in Carolina that I'm back moment. I think there's 608 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 2: a good spot for Cam, but that was at two 609 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 2: and a half. I like it much less on the 610 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 2: other side of the key number here. So yeah, by 611 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 2: the numbers, I definitely understand the Washington play, but it's 612 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 2: another one that we had to head on my best 613 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 2: bet first one here. My favorite play of the week 614 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 2: is the Indianapolis Colts, another one we talked about on 615 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 2: Hot Reed. Colts plus seven and a half in Buffalo. 616 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 2: I think the line is way off. I think this 617 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 2: game is gonna be very close. I think could be 618 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 2: end up being a lower scoring game. Colts have been 619 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 2: competitive in every single game since the opener when they 620 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 2: had the COVID issues. They've been in these games. The 621 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 2: Bills have not really faced a lot of great competition. 622 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 2: They've only had two games all year against the top 623 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 2: fifteen defense. They lost both of those. The Colts are 624 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 2: the best defense that they've played all year, and by DVA, 625 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,600 Speaker 2: they're the best opponent that they've played all year, so 626 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 2: I do worry a little bit Indianapolis Secondary. I think 627 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 2: Josh Allen, if he plays his best, could hurt the 628 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 2: secondary and make this pick look very bad. But I 629 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 2: like the Colts here. I like the seven and a half. 630 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 2: I like the money line at plus two to seventy. 631 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 2: I think the Colts have a real chance to win 632 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,440 Speaker 2: this game, and like really really muddy the Watters in 633 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 2: the AFC. So I'm in on the Colts. 634 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:56,840 Speaker 1: I met at it. I'm not met at there at all. 635 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 2: All Right, do you have another best bet for this week? 636 00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 1: I don't think I gave out all my best bets 637 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 1: all throughout this episode. I really like the Saints. I 638 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 1: really like the Minnesota Vikings. I think those are my favorites. 639 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 2: So I've got one more. But it's kind of a 640 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 2: contingency best bet because I do like this a lot, 641 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 2: but the line is a little funky right now because 642 00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,560 Speaker 2: we don't really know what's happening. I love the Pittsburgh 643 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,960 Speaker 2: Steelers Sunday Night on the road in Los Angeles playing 644 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 2: the Chargers. Right now, it's at plus five and a 645 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 2: half because we don't really know. We don't know if 646 00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 2: Ben Roethlisberger is gonna play yet. Minka Fitzpatrick and TJ. A. 647 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 2: Watt are question marks. They got a couple of guards 648 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 2: who are possibly out. Claypool's a question mark. We know 649 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,080 Speaker 2: about the Chargers. Joey Bosa is a question mark. Jerry 650 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 2: Tillery is a question mark. There's a lot of stuff 651 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 2: we don't know here. I like the Steelers a lot 652 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,479 Speaker 2: on this matchup, and and I like them better. I 653 00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 2: think if Big Ben doesn't play, And here's the reason. 654 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 2: Number one, he's terrible. We've talked about that all year. 655 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,640 Speaker 2: He's watched. This is not a Mason Rudolph play here, 656 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 2: but between them, Big Ben is fifty one percent against 657 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 2: the spread. Pittsburgh backup quarterbacks during the Big Ben era 658 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 2: seventeen seven and two against the spread, so seventy one 659 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,480 Speaker 2: percent cover, which tells me that the books are moving 660 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,600 Speaker 2: too far when Ben is out. And since twenty seventeen, 661 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 2: there's six and a one against the spread, with four 662 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,800 Speaker 2: outright wins and a lost by two and a lost 663 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:20,240 Speaker 2: by three. So Mike Tomlin, this is the raw raw 664 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,960 Speaker 2: Tomlin moment. He's sixty seven percent against the spread as 665 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,880 Speaker 2: an underdog fifty four percent straight up. Mason Rudolph is 666 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 2: seven and three against the spread. And Rudolph is a 667 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 2: little bit more mobile, and I think opens up the 668 00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:36,040 Speaker 2: run game for this team. He can play under center more. 669 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 2: That gets Najie Harris the ball getting downhill. This is 670 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,360 Speaker 2: the team you want to be playing when you can 671 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 2: run the ball a little bit more. The Chargers are 672 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,160 Speaker 2: among the worst run dye in the league. It's a 673 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,960 Speaker 2: game in LA, that's a home game for the Steelers. 674 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 2: There are going to be more Steelers fans there than 675 00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 2: Chargers Sunday night. Mike Tomlin, I think they can win outright. 676 00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 2: It's another very muddy AFC game plus two ten on 677 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 2: the money line. If we want to parlay the Steelers 678 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,440 Speaker 2: and Colts, they're my favorite two plays of the week. 679 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 2: That parlay is over ten to one odds right now. 680 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,320 Speaker 2: I put that on the app already last night, so 681 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 2: I know it's messy. I think this line is way 682 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,040 Speaker 2: too high. I think the Chargers at full strength. I 683 00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,360 Speaker 2: think this should have been like Chargers minus one or 684 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:18,720 Speaker 2: two or something like that. There's a lot of value 685 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:19,560 Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh here. 686 00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 1: I don't like to play Pittsburgh this year, but I 687 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,400 Speaker 1: do think there's some value on Pittsburgh right now. 688 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 2: Let's finish up with our Week twelve look Ahead. 689 00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:38,640 Speaker 4: Seventy ice rights ice Cream. 690 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 2: And I'm gonna let you go first on this one 691 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,960 Speaker 2: because I think that you might be taking the same 692 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 2: look ahead pick that I have my eye on. So 693 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 2: I've got a second one in play here. But what 694 00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 2: are you taking for your week called look ahead? 695 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 1: I'm going to Minnesota Vikings plus two and a half 696 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 1: San Francisco forty nine Ers. This forty nine ers team 697 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:57,200 Speaker 1: look market right now. They're laying seven to the Jaguars, 698 00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,120 Speaker 1: but the headline is actually going down to six and 699 00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 1: a half. Seeing a sharp money on the Jaguars, and 700 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,560 Speaker 1: I think that's telling. That's telling about the strength of 701 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. Obviously, they beat a Rams team 702 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:12,760 Speaker 1: that lost Robert Woods and Matthew Stafford is truly struggling 703 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 1: division game. But I'm still not that high on the 704 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 1: San Francisco forty nine Ers team. I think the Vikings 705 00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,719 Speaker 1: probably have been power ranked over the forty nine Ers. 706 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:22,839 Speaker 1: That line should be a pickle at best. I think 707 00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,600 Speaker 1: the Vikings are better team. I think they probably win 708 00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,760 Speaker 1: that game outright. So if they win this game against 709 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,120 Speaker 1: the Packers or forty nine of slips, I think that 710 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:31,840 Speaker 1: you can see. 711 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:32,319 Speaker 3: That line fall. 712 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,440 Speaker 1: So so I'm gonna jump out ahead of this and 713 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:35,319 Speaker 1: taking this so Viking. 714 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 2: It's a great spot for Minnesota. San Francisco is pass 715 00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,880 Speaker 2: defense not good. I think Justin Jefferson can have a 716 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,840 Speaker 2: big game. We know Shanahan is a favorite, is very bad. 717 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,280 Speaker 2: I agree that the Niners on the road, traveling east 718 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 2: on a short week in Jacksonville, it's a classic letdown 719 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,440 Speaker 2: spot for them. The Vikings could win. There's a lot 720 00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:55,760 Speaker 2: of reasons that you can get value on this line, 721 00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:57,160 Speaker 2: so I think you got to take it now two 722 00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,520 Speaker 2: and a half. Again, I'm sure that you would put 723 00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 2: this in users as well as a great spot for that. 724 00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,480 Speaker 2: So I like Minnesota. So I'm going to go back 725 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,320 Speaker 2: to the well on a team that we talked about earlier. 726 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:09,600 Speaker 2: I'm going to take the Eagles next week for my 727 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 2: look ahead, Eagles minus two and a half in New 728 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,600 Speaker 2: York playing the Giants, And it's the same reasons we 729 00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:17,520 Speaker 2: said before, but I think you'll like this one better 730 00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:21,799 Speaker 2: because the Giants ranked thirtieth in run defense, Dvoa. So 731 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:24,879 Speaker 2: it's back to one of those very bad matchups for 732 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 2: the other team, and the Giants are playing Tampa on 733 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 2: Monday night. I actually think the Giants could hang in 734 00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,400 Speaker 2: that one, but there's a chance, since it's Tampa, that 735 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,359 Speaker 2: the Giants just get run off the field. I think 736 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,560 Speaker 2: the Eagles could beat the Saints, and I would certainly 737 00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,080 Speaker 2: lend some value here at two and a half. I 738 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,919 Speaker 2: definitely like the Eagles in a run spot for them, 739 00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 2: and I want to grab it now because I think 740 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 2: it's going to get past a field goal. 741 00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. I like that one a lot. I've really liked that. 742 00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:50,560 Speaker 1: That's a that's a good play right there. 743 00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 2: All right, Well, we finally found something we agree on, 744 00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:55,799 Speaker 2: so I think that's a good spot to go out on. 745 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,360 Speaker 2: We agree on our Eagles and vikings for next week. 746 00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,719 Speaker 2: We are head to head on just whatever thing this week, 747 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,919 Speaker 2: so we will see how this plays out. It's gonna 748 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,680 Speaker 2: be a fun weekend of games, a fun weekend of 749 00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,640 Speaker 2: Week eleven football. That's going to wrap it up today. 750 00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:12,480 Speaker 2: For the Action Network podcast and Strong Side Fridays, please 751 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 2: download the app and rate, subscribe review of the podcast. 752 00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,040 Speaker 2: If you haven't yet, check out stuck in Raybond six 753 00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,520 Speaker 2: pack if you haven't done that yet, and get a 754 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,560 Speaker 2: preview for all the rest of these games we didn't 755 00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,840 Speaker 2: talk about. Raheem and I are on with several others 756 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 2: on the Buckets podcast talking all things NBA. As we 757 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,960 Speaker 2: hit the one month mark of the season. The two 758 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,439 Speaker 2: of us are back here on your feed. It's first 759 00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,239 Speaker 2: Thing Monday to talk about everything from this weekend for 760 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:41,000 Speaker 2: Raheem Palmer. I'm Brandon Anderson and this has been the 761 00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,440 Speaker 2: Action Network podcast. Enjoy your weekend.