Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Piezapia and this
Speaker 1: is VP NFL. We're looking ahead to the best bets
Speaker 1: of Week seven in the NFL, and last week the
Speaker 1: favorites bit back and hopefully these two guys are recovering
Speaker 1: from a tough week there and they are ready to
Speaker 1: make a rebound after a really chalky Week six. And
Speaker 1: I understand guys that, you know, sometimes you want to
Speaker 1: fade the public, but every now and then the public
Speaker 1: does win and they are correct, which means we don't
Speaker 1: stray from what we do. No, no, no, we stick
Speaker 1: with a process. It's a long season. So Terrell is
Speaker 1: that the special sauce here is to not let last
Speaker 1: week get you down and just continue on with the process.
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't you see my face? This is my locked in,
Speaker 2: very frustrated here my last week's performances. You know, it's like,
Speaker 2: you know a player, like when they go in a
Speaker 2: interview to players after a loss. Why are you interviewing
Speaker 2: me after I'm emotionally charged after losing a game. I
Speaker 2: had a bad week. I feel horrible about it. I'm
Speaker 2: sick and disgusted, But I also understand I do not
Speaker 2: bet with the public majority of the time, and when
Speaker 2: I do or when I do, is very very subtle.
Speaker 2: And so the fact that the public had a really,
Speaker 2: really good week just means that I was going to
Speaker 2: have a bad week. So guess what, it's time to
Speaker 2: bounce back, because no way the public cash is twice
Speaker 2: in a row.
Speaker 1: It is my upset special did not hit either. So
Speaker 1: it was a tough week Erics, and I think I
Speaker 1: know what your problem is, just not enough under So
Speaker 1: I brought here a new sponsor, the unofficial man here.
Speaker 1: Look at him. He is ready for Week seven ericson
Speaker 1: now he's officially.
Speaker 3: Ready ready, He's ready for the unders.
Speaker 1: Baby, I hope.
Speaker 2: There's last week you are going one on one with me.
Speaker 1: I'm like, let's go play, all right, Let's get to
Speaker 1: the bigs for Week seven in the NFL, and don't
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Speaker 1: Let's start with the first bet of week seven here, Terrell,
Speaker 1: let's talk about the Seattle Seahawks. I know you got
Speaker 1: some feelings against them, and you know all year, I
Speaker 1: feel like you're just not a fan of the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 1: I think Terrell has no love. I feel like for
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons, no matter what they do, they can't
Speaker 1: seem to get any love from you. So I'm not
Speaker 1: surprised by this at all. Take me through the Seahawks
Speaker 1: here and the points.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Seahawks are I mean out the Seahawks.
Speaker 2: I don't think the Falcons are a good team like
Speaker 2: I mean I'm really really hesitant on the Seahawks too,
Speaker 2: But this is a Seahawks spot. You're getting them as
Speaker 2: a dog. You're getting Geno Smith as a dog. I've
Speaker 2: been on here time after time telling you when we
Speaker 2: fake the Seahawks, that is when you're laying points with
Speaker 2: Geno Smith. Now you're getting him plus the points, and
Speaker 2: you're getting him in Atlanta in a dome. So I
Speaker 2: think that he's gonna be able to move the football.
Speaker 2: How do teams beat this Atlanta team by running the
Speaker 2: football as well? And when Kenneth Walker gets ten plus
Speaker 2: carries or gets a heavy workload in a game, the
Speaker 2: Seattle Seahawks are very very good. I think they're gonna
Speaker 2: be able to move the ball on the ground and
Speaker 2: be able to move the ball through the air. On
Speaker 2: this defense, there's virtually no pass rusher. I think Gino
Speaker 2: Smith is gonna have all day. And ultimately, what it
Speaker 2: is on the other side of the ball is I
Speaker 2: trust Mike McDaniel to craft up a defense that's going
Speaker 2: to get Kirk Cousins rattled. They're going to get to them,
Speaker 2: they're gonna get pressure, and they're gonna force him into
Speaker 2: mistakes with the really really good secondary behind them. So
Speaker 2: I think this is a hammer spot. This is a
Speaker 2: great spot to get Seattle on a bounce back against
Speaker 2: a fraudulent Atlanta team. Like, I don't think any team
Speaker 2: in the NFC South is really worth much, but I
Speaker 2: definitely think the Bucks are probably the cream of the
Speaker 2: crop through there. I think Atlanta is just just complete
Speaker 2: for show. They got lucky with the overtime win they
Speaker 2: beat the Panthers, they went and had a comeback against
Speaker 2: the Eagles. Like, there hasn't been anything that really really
Speaker 2: impressed me with the Atlanta Falcons, and I just don't
Speaker 2: think they should be layd points here. So I love
Speaker 2: getting a free with Gino.
Speaker 1: What do the Falcons have to do to impress you?
Speaker 1: NF Championship game? Is that where it starts to build.
Speaker 2: About actually, how about actually look good? How about actually
Speaker 2: rush the passer and have a defensive line? Like you
Speaker 2: went out here and did all of this to get
Speaker 2: Matthew Judon and the defensive line still sucks. That was
Speaker 2: something in the offseason you should have attacked with the
Speaker 2: draft pick. Maybe if you drafted an edge rusher instead
Speaker 2: of drafting Michael Pennix, I would have something good to
Speaker 2: say about the Falcons. So no, I have nothing good
Speaker 2: to say about the Falcons. I don't think they're being.
Speaker 1: Run right, Andrew upset special. Originally I was leaning towards
Speaker 1: your next pick, actually just to win outright on the
Speaker 1: money line. But the injury that crapped up yesterday with
Speaker 1: Drake May gives me pause. They say it's not a
Speaker 1: big deal, but he's going for an MRI. I have
Speaker 1: a hard time putting those two phrases in my brain
Speaker 1: together and having them make sense. So let's make sense
Speaker 1: to the Patriots here, because I know they keep telling
Speaker 1: me everything's fine, everything's fine, but I don't know why.
Speaker 1: I have a hard time believing them right now. But
Speaker 1: used to like the Patriots regardless. It seems like with
Speaker 1: the points in London against the Jacks, let's talk about it.
Speaker 3: I do because I think Drake May's gonna be fine.
Speaker 3: He practiced in full before getting the MRI, so we'll
Speaker 3: get more information about it, but I think it'll be okay.
Speaker 3: I think he's going to play in this game, and
Speaker 3: that's why I like the Patriots plus five and a
Speaker 3: half against Jacksonville. Should Jacksonville be favored by five and
Speaker 3: a half points against any team in the NFL. That's
Speaker 3: the question I posed on the Early look Ahead Show
Speaker 3: because I don't think they should be because they're a
Speaker 3: horrible team, up and down across the board on offense,
Speaker 3: on defense, horrible. They have failed to cover the spread
Speaker 3: in eight of their last twelve games. They also played
Speaker 3: the league's highest rate of man coverage despite not having
Speaker 3: the personnel to actually play in man coverage. So Jacksonville
Speaker 3: is in a weird spot where they're doing things schematically
Speaker 3: that don't make sense based on today's NFL. They're playing
Speaker 3: a ton of man coverage when they don't have the
Speaker 3: guys to do it. They throw the ball downfield at
Speaker 3: the highest rate when teams are playing two high safeties
Speaker 3: all the time to stop downfield attacks. So, Doug Peterson,
Speaker 3: I think your days are numbered. Maybe you need to
Speaker 3: take out a time share in London, because I'm not
Speaker 3: sure you're going to be coming back to Jacksonville anytime soon.
Speaker 3: So I like the Patriots here with the points. I
Speaker 3: think Drake May is gonna be able to run again.
Speaker 3: We hit again. As bad as the picks against the
Speaker 3: spread were last week, the props were on fire. I
Speaker 3: wasn't even upset. I thought even the process with Calvin
Speaker 3: Ridley was right. Zach Ertz one yard away from scoring
Speaker 3: a touchdown and by any time touchdown bet so felt
Speaker 3: great about the Props. I think Drake May is gonna
Speaker 3: run wild here. And last week he drew one of
Speaker 3: the toughest matchups the Texans, number one in the NFL
Speaker 3: in pass rush and pressure rate, and he threw three touchdowns. Yes,
Speaker 3: he did get sacked a couple of times, got banged up,
Speaker 3: but ultimately the offense moved the ball better than they
Speaker 3: had at any point, which Yakobe Brissett ad War's rank
Speaker 3: thirtieth in pressure rate this season. So I think the
Speaker 3: matchup is significantly better for the Patriots and Drake May
Speaker 3: as long as he's the quarterback. I like back of
Speaker 3: the Patriots here plus five and a half. Even in London.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like the Jags are already kind of
Speaker 1: throwing into the towel. It seems like things are not
Speaker 1: going well for them. We'll see coming off London. Last
Speaker 1: time the team, you know, came off a loss in London,
Speaker 1: then if you recall, the coach got fired. So two
Speaker 1: losses I don't know, if you get fired and then
Speaker 1: what like, what's the second thing that happens to you.
Speaker 1: We'll find out. Let's get you to.
Speaker 2: Go immediately home. Like they're like, no, you don't have
Speaker 2: to wait for the plan. You can go fly, just
Speaker 2: go home.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, there you go. All right, let's talk
Speaker 1: about the Packers and Texans. You're mentioning that pass rush
Speaker 1: of the Texans. Jordan Love Drell you know, loves to
Speaker 1: throw the football. Last week, again, you saw some big
Speaker 1: moments out of Jordan Love, especially as the game went
Speaker 1: on there, utilizing Christian Watson, Romeo Doms, like all these
Speaker 1: guys were getting involved, which was great because Jane Reid
Speaker 1: got banged up in that game. So do the Packers
Speaker 1: have enough here to beat the Tech at home?
Speaker 2: Yes, they do, and it's because of the fact that
Speaker 2: they're at home and we're fading this Sexans team on
Speaker 2: the road. Yet again, like, this has not been a
Speaker 2: team that I think that I've wanted to back on
Speaker 2: the road. I know they played the Patriots on the road,
Speaker 2: but they gave up twenty one points to Drake May
Speaker 2: in his first start, so you know, a little bit
Speaker 2: questionable about that there. And then look at what they
Speaker 2: did on the road against the competent offense this season,
Speaker 2: they got destroyed by the Minnesota Vikings. I think that
Speaker 2: this is a continuous continuing from last season where this
Speaker 2: Sexans defense is really good at home stout at home.
Speaker 2: They get up for big games at home, but when
Speaker 2: they go on the road, they have let down spots.
Speaker 2: It reminds you of the Browns last year as well,
Speaker 2: who let down on the road. Like I think that
Speaker 2: I'm just going to continue to fade this Sexans team
Speaker 2: on the road because it seems that everybody wants to
Speaker 2: be bought in on them being this world class team,
Speaker 2: but there's kind of a night and day difference between
Speaker 2: how they're scoring. Let's up on defense on the road
Speaker 2: then at home. And if you sit here and you
Speaker 2: tell me that this Packers defense is going to be
Speaker 2: opportunistic like Xavier McKinney has been all year, be able
Speaker 2: to force turnovers to this Texans offense, keep them rattled.
Speaker 2: Jordan Love in this Packers' receiving corps has been locked
Speaker 2: in and I think there are one hundred percent going
Speaker 2: to be throwing all around the field of this game.
Speaker 2: I like Jordan Love in this offense laying two and
Speaker 2: a half the short number here against Texas.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I think they pull this one out here.
Speaker 1: Texans too without Nico Collins. Not quite the same as
Speaker 1: Texans in my opinion. Although last week did have some
Speaker 1: moments that are this against the Patriots, I think a
Speaker 1: little bit different here against that Green Bay defense, especially
Speaker 1: the secondary. Let's get to Ericson's second pick of the week.
Speaker 1: I've got a lot of feelings about this game, but
Speaker 1: I'm going to save him for later. Let's talk about
Speaker 1: Miami in Indianapolis. I want to hear yours here because
Speaker 1: we're not in the stage where we're getting to a back.
Speaker 1: We still have a lot of weapons in Miami, not
Speaker 1: much defense in Miami. Not much defense for Indianapolis or
Speaker 1: turning Anthony Richardson is looming here. But a lot of
Speaker 1: injuries on this front here for the Colts that they
Speaker 1: are dealing with too. Maybe that bye week is what
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins needed to get back on track. I
Speaker 1: don't know, But Andrew, how do you feel about this
Speaker 1: contest here coming up in Week seven between the Colts
Speaker 1: and the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 3: I like the over in this game over forty three
Speaker 3: and a half points. You look at the Colts team,
Speaker 3: especially when they play at home. This is a team
Speaker 3: that typically trends towards the over because their defense is horrible.
Speaker 3: Six of the last eight Colts games when they've been favored,
Speaker 3: how they've gone over the total points. When I'm looking
Speaker 3: at the matchup, I think we have two of the
Speaker 3: better offensive minds going head to head in this spot.
Speaker 3: The strengths of these teams are not their defenses in
Speaker 3: any shape or form. You look at Chanstiken versus Mike McDaniel.
Speaker 3: Mike McDaniel's been working the lab, they had the bye week.
Speaker 3: If we're ever going to see a great performance or
Speaker 3: an average performance from this offense with Tyler Huntley under center,
Speaker 3: it would come this week against Innapolis Colts. Because their
Speaker 3: defense can't stout the pass, their defense can't stout the run.
Speaker 3: I just think that we're going to see points here.
Speaker 3: We're going to finally see Terry kill cash in on
Speaker 3: some of these air yards and targets that he's been
Speaker 3: getting with Tyler hunting over the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: I know that it's been tough, especially in fantasy football,
Speaker 3: rostering these Dolphins players because hey, you're you're poking this.
Speaker 3: Please do something, Please do something. I think this week
Speaker 3: you're going to see at least one of these playmakers
Speaker 3: make a big play, and I think you're going to cause
Speaker 3: this game to kind of get a little wacky. You
Speaker 3: have Anthony Richardson back at quarterback for the Colts. Yes,
Speaker 3: he's working inconsistent, but he also generates a lot of
Speaker 3: big plays because he's got a cannon arm and sometimes
Speaker 3: it results in plays for his offense or the opposing
Speaker 3: teams defense. So I think this game, playing inside a
Speaker 3: dome could get kind of wacky with two weeks to prepare.
Speaker 3: I think Miami's offense shows its best form at least
Speaker 3: to an average level, and I think that the total
Speaker 3: at forty three and a half is low based on
Speaker 3: what we would expect from these two high powered offenses
Speaker 3: entering the NFL season. Obviously have been disappointing because of injuries,
Speaker 3: but I think they both get back on track.
Speaker 2: So I like the over here.
Speaker 1: All right. So that's Ericson's pick, and don't forget to
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Speaker 1: com slash chat. All right, let's get back to you, Terrell.
Speaker 1: I know both of you guys have feelings about Lions Vikings.
Speaker 1: I wonder if they're the same feeling or not. So
Speaker 1: Viking's coming off the buy here, coming off a big
Speaker 1: win beat the Jets, A. Lion's coming off a huge
Speaker 1: win where they beat the hell out of the cowboys
Speaker 1: in their building, but they did lose Aiden Hutchinson. So Terrell,
Speaker 1: Lions Vikings probably the marquee matchup of the week. What
Speaker 1: are your thoughts?
Speaker 2: Well, I would first like it like it to be
Speaker 2: said that I put my picks into the sheet first.
Speaker 2: So I just I want everybody to know that when
Speaker 2: I don't, that make may or may not come up.
Speaker 2: I'm just letting you know. But I got there first
Speaker 2: this time, just actually.
Speaker 1: Came up before you showed up for the show. Andrews said, Oh,
Speaker 1: Terrell and I are holding hands on the Vikings, so spoiler.
Speaker 3: I I just want to be right man. After last
Speaker 3: week on five, I'll tell baby, let's go no.
Speaker 2: But I love the under here under fifty and a half.
Speaker 2: And I think that everybody looks at and here's Justin
Speaker 2: Jefferson in this game. They see how the Vikings have
Speaker 2: been this season, and Sam Donald's been moving the football,
Speaker 2: and Jared Goff and this Lion's offense just now, especially
Speaker 2: after demolishing the Cowboys, everybody's thinking points points points, points points.
Speaker 2: But you got to remember Sam Donald only completed forty
Speaker 2: five percent of his back in London, like he seems
Speaker 2: to have started to come down a little bit. And
Speaker 2: look at both of these defenses like they've been live.
Speaker 2: I don't know if there's a defensive Coordinator of the Year,
Speaker 2: but just put Brian Flores his name next to it,
Speaker 2: because that's one hundred percent what he is. And he's
Speaker 2: probably coaching himself into another head coaching job at some point.
Speaker 2: And so looking at DVOA past DVOA, Minnesota ranks first
Speaker 2: and first in rush, DVOA Detroit is fourth in past
Speaker 2: v fourth and overall DVOA, I think that this is
Speaker 2: a really, really good opportunity here where you're going to
Speaker 2: see everybody talking about it. They're going to talk about
Speaker 2: it in DFS, They're going to talk about it everywhere. Hey,
Speaker 2: this is where the points are going to be. Do
Speaker 2: your touchdown parlays throw these people in your DFS lineup. No,
Speaker 2: I actually think this is gonna be one of those slower,
Speaker 2: hard fought defense is going to step up because eight
Speaker 2: and Hutcheson is out. I think they really really target
Speaker 2: the line of scrimmage here and just try to get
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold on his butt and not let him be
Speaker 2: comfortable in the pocket. And this Minnesota Vikings defense has
Speaker 2: been throw and weird, obscene looks at every quarterback this season,
Speaker 2: and they've been able to force turnovers. And I think
Speaker 2: that Jared Goff is definitely gonna throw them one. So
Speaker 2: I like the defenses overall here. I think they are
Speaker 2: the side of the football that everybody should be talking about,
Speaker 2: not the offensive side. So I don't think it's gonna
Speaker 2: be a lot of points, all right.
Speaker 1: Ericson, what do you want to add to the under here,
Speaker 1: because obviously you are in lockstep with Terrell on this one.
Speaker 3: Yes, the Undertaker approves of this message of his pick
Speaker 3: of the lines and Vikings under fifty and a half points.
Speaker 3: I'll just throw out some stats here, kind of just
Speaker 3: backing up the points that Terrell already made. You look
Speaker 3: at Sam Donald the last so basically since Week four.
Speaker 3: The only quarterback that has a worse PFF passing grade
Speaker 3: than Sam Donald.
Speaker 2: Shawn Watsons will love us. Yes, I tried to get it.
Speaker 2: I thought we was gonna say it at the same time.
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson's probably right at that same range, but he
Speaker 3: has not been as good as he had started the
Speaker 3: year weeks one to three when he was basically flowed.
Speaker 3: He's thrown a lot of interceptions so far this season.
Speaker 3: And we look at the Vikings, I just think, yeah,
Speaker 3: they're not being highlighted enough on defense. Like Terrell said,
Speaker 3: you look at what they've done at home since the
Speaker 3: start of twenty twenty three. They are two eight and one.
Speaker 3: That's the over under for their record at home. There's
Speaker 3: only two games that have gone over in Minnesota since
Speaker 3: the start of twenty twenty three eight unders eight. So
Speaker 3: I think that this one, especially at the bloated total.
Speaker 3: I think we talked about this Joe on the look
Speaker 3: Ahead Show, where I looked at this number. I think
Speaker 3: it's actually been met down. I think it actually opened
Speaker 3: closer to fifty one half. I think it's actually starting
Speaker 3: to trend down, but still at fifteen and a half points. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I love the under here too.
Speaker 1: Looking at the passing Raiders right now and the rating.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, where everyone Deshaun Watson is twenty eighth in
Speaker 1: the league. Just putting that out on there, so there
Speaker 1: you go. The company he has it seems.
Speaker 2: Like away this week unfortunately.
Speaker 1: Yike, I'm gonna leave that one.
Speaker 2: Hey, well, fun fact. I know we don't have this
Speaker 2: on the car aready I did that game?
Speaker 1: Does scare me? I'm not gonna lie to but I just.
Speaker 2: Want everybody to know that the Bengals have not beaten
Speaker 2: the Browns in Cleveland since the season at the Browns
Speaker 2: and sixteen. That was the last time that the Bengals
Speaker 2: not win a game at all. Was the last time
Speaker 2: the Bengals were able to beat them in Cleveland. I
Speaker 2: just feel like, if you're willing to lay five and
Speaker 2: a half with the Bengals.
Speaker 1: On that right on, bro, That's why I didn't pick
Speaker 1: you know, I had that.
Speaker 3: I get Burrow Burrow against the a FC North. He
Speaker 3: always plays bad against the Browns again, the Ravens, against
Speaker 3: the steel against the Tos.
Speaker 1: Against the Ravens, he's at least played okay.
Speaker 3: No, I mean before last week he had not had
Speaker 3: any massive games.
Speaker 1: Against No, that's not true. A couple of years agogainst
Speaker 1: the Ravens, they had that over time years ago, played
Speaker 1: a couple of years in the league, and he's missed
Speaker 1: some time with injuries. So there's only so much sample
Speaker 1: size I could take out of there, all right. The
Speaker 1: one thing I can always take out of these conversations
Speaker 1: is I've been a long time and if you're watching
Speaker 1: the shows last year, betting Patrick Mahomes is an underdog
Speaker 1: is something that in the playhoffs last year. It's very
Speaker 1: very good to me, and I see it there on
Speaker 1: the board. I've already bet it. I'm already in so Terrell,
Speaker 1: let's talk about it. She's forty nine ers. How do
Speaker 1: you want to approach this one. I'm just going straight
Speaker 1: to the Kansas City Chiefs coming off of bye. I
Speaker 1: just look, the forty nine ers might have all the
Speaker 1: revenge narrative in the world that they want here to
Speaker 1: got it. I don't care. I don't want to hear it.
Speaker 1: The preparation of the Chiefs, I think wins out here
Speaker 1: and at the end of the day, I mean the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers just to me, are I have been
Speaker 1: unimpressive all year? Your thoughts?
Speaker 2: Yeah? And Patrick Mahomes is four and oh against the Niners.
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. So yeah, you know, as president Patrick
Speaker 2: Mahomes Fan Club, there's no way I'm fading Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 2: as a dog here.
Speaker 3: But is he gonna score fantasy points this week?
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah he is.
Speaker 1: Well Juju Smith Schuster's there now, so everything's fine. Yeah,
Speaker 1: everything's fine.
Speaker 2: He does what goes wrong, He does what he needs
Speaker 2: to do to get a win. Nobody has forced him
Speaker 2: to have to be a crazy passer to get a win.
Speaker 2: But I think that.
Speaker 3: That's not what fantasy managers want to hear, Troelle, we
Speaker 3: want to get three hundred yards.
Speaker 2: He's going to give you a solid eight team. It's
Speaker 2: going to be a solid eight team. You're not gonna
Speaker 2: be mad. But it's just not gonna be the big week.
Speaker 2: And the reason is not gonna be the big week
Speaker 2: is because the San Francisco defense is still pretty good.
Speaker 2: And so I being the forward thinker that I am
Speaker 2: knew that both of you would be on the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: and I said, wait, I want to give the people
Speaker 2: more best. So I'm gonna pivot and I'm going to
Speaker 2: play a play that I love as well, and that's
Speaker 2: the under forty seven in this game. Because you mentioned
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes. You mentioned Patrick Mahomes, I mentioned Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 2: Like yet nobody has mentioned this Chiefs defense that is
Speaker 2: absolutely stout and is the reason that they're five and
Speaker 2: oh this season they've been playing absolutely amazing and we
Speaker 2: saw this last season. Last season, the Chiefs defense was
Speaker 2: the story and so we now Spagnola has made this
Speaker 2: a defensive team that's going to rock every single opponent.
Speaker 2: And I've seen with the offensive line with Rock Perdy
Speaker 2: him be rattled multiple times this season. Are Y, I
Speaker 2: think he's gonna get rattled here. I think Chris Jones
Speaker 2: is going to be able to get home. I think
Speaker 2: Carlofkis is going to be able to get home on
Speaker 2: that defensive line. And then on the other side of
Speaker 2: the ball, Yeah, the forty nine ers are going to
Speaker 2: try to get up. They're going to try to play
Speaker 2: hard on defense, fright, and more than all those guys,
Speaker 2: they're gonna be like, hey, we don't want to lose
Speaker 2: to this team again. So I think that we're going
Speaker 2: to see high intensity defense on both sides of the ball,
Speaker 2: and it's going to be one of the uglier games.
Speaker 2: Like this is another game where people are probably throwing
Speaker 2: it into DFS and all of that. I would love
Speaker 2: to see DFS ownership in this game as well. I
Speaker 2: don't think this is going to be it. I think
Speaker 2: it's gonna be under So, yeah, are you going to
Speaker 2: get your thirty points from Patrick Mahomes? No, but you
Speaker 2: might get eighteen.
Speaker 1: All right, I'll take day honestly. I'll take the team
Speaker 1: with the way things are going. Erickson, let's get your
Speaker 1: thoughts on the Chiefs game too. Do you want to
Speaker 1: just take Chiefs straight up on the money line or
Speaker 1: do you want to take the points? Where do you
Speaker 1: want to go?
Speaker 3: Take the points, take the money line, take them to
Speaker 3: win by a touchdown. I just want the Chiefs, man,
Speaker 3: I just want the Chiefs. We did this all last
Speaker 3: year when the Chiefs were underdogs, and what do they do?
Speaker 3: They just kept winning every single game? Seven games as underdogs.
Speaker 3: Seven and oh Patrick Mahomes as an underdog in his
Speaker 3: career eighty eight percent against the spread. That is the
Speaker 3: highest percentage for any quarterback as an underdog as a
Speaker 3: favorite among any of these starting quarterbacks. If you just
Speaker 3: blindly bet Mahomes as an underdog, you're going to win money.
Speaker 3: So trust the process. Just keep betting on Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 3: Especially when you look at the forty nine ers what
Speaker 3: they've done at home Historically, they've been super overrated against
Speaker 3: the spread. They haven't covered the spread in eight of
Speaker 3: the last ten home games. Now they've done it twice
Speaker 3: this year against two the Jets and Patriots. Yeah, we're
Speaker 3: really impressive wins against those teams covering the spread, and
Speaker 3: they didn't cover against the Cardinals. So I think that. Yeah,
Speaker 3: just the way that enjoy, the way to not enjoy
Speaker 3: Sunday is to bet against Patrick Mahomes. It's gonna be
Speaker 3: so much more fun knowing that you bet on Mahomes
Speaker 3: in this matchup. So have fun on Sunday. Bet the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: By the way. Actually, you know what, maybe I'm gonna
Speaker 1: save this. Maybe I'm gonna change my parlay of the day.
Speaker 1: There's the same game partly. Maybe I'll just do two.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give two. It's bonus time because last week
Speaker 1: wasn't good, so we got to give bonuses out. That's
Speaker 1: what we're gonna do. We're gonna bonus it up. Let's get
Speaker 1: to the next one and final one of the game.
Speaker 1: Before we get to the upsets special and the parlay
Speaker 1: of the week two, Let's get to the Chargers game here, Terrell,
Speaker 1: I like this one too. You're on the Chargers of
Speaker 1: the minus two and a half. Let's talk about it
Speaker 1: because this one stuck out to me too, because I'm
Speaker 1: just tired of Arizona. They're gonna be without Marvin Harrison
Speaker 1: most likely. That hasn't come official yet, but it seems
Speaker 1: as de trending that way. I'm just you know, I
Speaker 1: thought Arizona might be the plucky underdog this year to
Speaker 1: surprise people. That hope is gone. For me, it's dead.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, absolutely not. And I know Kyler has a dog,
Speaker 2: all the best stuff, blah blah blah. But at this point,
Speaker 2: this defense is horrible. This defense is really bad, and
Speaker 2: I think they're going to give up a bunch of points.
Speaker 2: My question on Justin Herbert was how healthy is he?
Speaker 2: How locked in can John Harvard get this team on offense,
Speaker 2: because defense they are defense. You can point to Harball,
Speaker 2: Jim Harbor, I'm sorry, I said, John, Jim Harball being
Speaker 2: the guy that invigorated his defense. These are the same
Speaker 2: players as last year for a defense that was horrible,
Speaker 2: and they're actually really good like that. These are the
Speaker 2: exact same players, but he's coaching them up and they're
Speaker 2: playing really, really well on that side of the ball.
Speaker 2: You look at Arizona on the other side of the ball,
Speaker 2: twenty eighth, then past Dvoa. That's not going to get
Speaker 2: you any Do you any favors playing against this Chargers team,
Speaker 2: especially with Justin Herbert moving the ball down the field.
Speaker 2: If he can't get pressure on Herbert, he's going to
Speaker 2: pick you apart. I don't think this is relatively going
Speaker 2: to be that close. I think that the Chargers are
Speaker 2: gonna run away with this because they are far better team.
Speaker 2: And I am just not a believer in this Cardinals
Speaker 2: team right now. So no, I think the Chargers are
Speaker 2: going to go out here and get them win. Plus,
Speaker 2: the team looks forward to being on the road because
Speaker 2: they have no home field.
Speaker 1: Now, it's certainly some good context there, and I'm with
Speaker 1: you one hundred percent on this one, ericson last one
Speaker 1: for you, Titans go to Buffalo. Buffalo got their new
Speaker 1: wide receiver, Marii Cooper, so everyone's very excited about that. Buffalo.
Speaker 1: You know, kind of was struggle busts a little bit
Speaker 1: there against the Jets, a good defense, and I don't
Speaker 1: know if Marii Cooper can come into one week and
Speaker 1: make that much of a difference. But the bigger issue
Speaker 1: to me is the James Cook injury and how that
Speaker 1: impacts this offense potentially too. So Titans are nine point
Speaker 1: underdogs in this game, nine and a half some other
Speaker 1: markets here. How are you approaching this one?
Speaker 3: It's two many points, So I'm taking the Titans here
Speaker 3: plus nine and a half. I don't care. Again, it's
Speaker 3: a pick six for Will Levis, not a pick nine
Speaker 3: and a half points. The last time I checked, that's
Speaker 3: how much pick six it is? Six points nine.
Speaker 1: It feels like that if you're a Titans fan, that
Speaker 1: it does.
Speaker 3: But you know, there's just too many points here, even
Speaker 3: if you get the boneheaded Will Levis turnover. Yes, but
Speaker 3: we're covered because we got nine and a half points
Speaker 3: to work with here. I just think that schematically. Match
Speaker 3: up wise, the Bills don't really match up that great
Speaker 3: against the Titans. You saw them run the ball down
Speaker 3: the throats of the New York Jets. Well, the Titans
Speaker 3: have the number one stuff rate in the NFL against
Speaker 3: the run. They also ranked top five in terms of
Speaker 3: yards per pass attempt allowed. So this is a very
Speaker 3: good defense. And what's the Bill's biggest weakness on their
Speaker 3: side of the field on defense is against the run.
Speaker 3: We saw Bresol run wild against the Buffalo Bills defense.
Speaker 3: And how do you protect the Levis from losing the game?
Speaker 3: Established the run, Tony Pollard is gonna get twenty plus
Speaker 3: carries in this matchup. Ta Jay Spears is gonna miss
Speaker 3: this game, so you're gonna get prime Tony Pollard against
Speaker 3: this Bill's run defense. I think they're gonna keep it close.
Speaker 3: I like kind of like under in this game. I
Speaker 3: think this is an ugly game. Again, the Bill's coming
Speaker 3: off Monday night game an emotional win over an AFC
Speaker 3: team or an AFC East rival. They got Amari Cooper.
Speaker 3: He's not gonna fix all the problems in one week.
Speaker 3: They have serious problems still in the passing game. And
Speaker 3: think it's gonna take a little bit of time. So ultimately, yes,
Speaker 3: I think the Bills are gonna pull out the wind,
Speaker 3: but I think it's gonna be ugly, and I think
Speaker 3: could Titans keep it close. So Titans plust nine and
Speaker 3: a half.
Speaker 1: And the Bills struggle against running backs this year catching
Speaker 1: the football in the backfields. Why we took advantage of
Speaker 1: the Breese Haall thing earlier on Monday night. If you
Speaker 1: were following us on social media, you caught my Monday
Speaker 1: bets was over on Breshall receiver over Bresol rushing. It
Speaker 1: was over on Breesaw on Bresol. I just it was
Speaker 1: just over. You know, I didn't bet him to score
Speaker 1: a touchdown because my faithor of the Jets offense is shook.
Speaker 1: Is that the easy way to say? I don't know.
Speaker 1: But but Tony Poward, especially having that backfield to himself,
Speaker 1: Now that's a guy in the DFS world. I'm curious about.
Speaker 1: That's a guy tomorrow. I hope we're talking about on
Speaker 1: the Prop show too, because we'd better be. I don't
Speaker 1: know what those lines are yet for Tony Power. I
Speaker 1: haven't checked him out yet, but I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be overs for Uncle Joie. All right, let's talk about
Speaker 1: the upset special of the week. Look, Colet's defense is bad,
Speaker 1: Josh Downs isn't healthy, Jonathan Taylor is not healthy. Michael
Speaker 1: Pittman's trying to play, he's not healthy. I don't know
Speaker 1: if Anthony Richardson is healthy. We'll see, we'll find out.
Speaker 1: And the Colts have had some matchups that were kind
Speaker 1: of in their favor the last couple of weeks. So
Speaker 1: I think that a week off to kind of reset
Speaker 1: the brain, give Tyler Huntley a lot more practice, a
Speaker 1: lot more time with the playbook, a lot more time
Speaker 1: with his weapons to get the timing down. I think
Speaker 1: can go a long way. I like the Dolphins on
Speaker 1: the road here on the money line plus one thirty four.
Speaker 1: He could take the points to plus three minus one ten.
Speaker 1: But I think, finally, this is where both defenses are bad.
Speaker 1: I'm not touching the over unner. I'm not touching This
Speaker 1: is too many ranges of outcomes. But I think at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, it's the Dolphins finding a
Speaker 1: victory and scratching and calowing their way back into relevance
Speaker 1: here and hopefully getting to a back now. I promise
Speaker 1: you the bonus. So let's get to the parlay of
Speaker 1: the week. Let's take those Dolphins on the money line.
Speaker 1: Even if the Titans cover. I don't think the Bills
Speaker 1: lose this football game. So give me the Bills heavy
Speaker 1: juice on the money line and the Chiefs on the
Speaker 1: money line. Give me Dolphins, Bills, Chiefs three money line bets.
Speaker 1: You get plus four sixty four when you put those
Speaker 1: three things together like that, and the same game parlay
Speaker 1: of the week. If you take the Chiefs with the point,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs on the money line, and the under that
Speaker 1: Terrell was talking about, you get plus two forty five.
Speaker 1: So just you want to go Chiefs, that's the way
Speaker 1: to go, Chiefs. Just go all in baby. Great stuff, gentlemen,
Speaker 1: Very exciting, Terrell. Before we go, any quick thoughts about
Speaker 1: what these Steelers are doing here with this quarterback situation,
Speaker 1: because I was kind of curious what your take is.
Speaker 2: So I don't think that I don't think that you know,
Speaker 2: it is a foregone thing that people know that. I
Speaker 2: think Russ sucks. He's not good. He's not a person
Speaker 2: that you want to be around. He's a cancer to
Speaker 2: a locker room. He's like the Jehovah witness that just
Speaker 2: comes around, it possibly knocks on the door, and you
Speaker 2: don't want to turn them away because you think that
Speaker 2: they're doing good work, but they're just really annoying because
Speaker 2: they keep coming at the worst optimal times. And this
Speaker 2: is probably the worst optimal time for Russell Wilson to
Speaker 2: be making a start against the Jets, because what if
Speaker 2: the Jets now win this game, and now you're like, oh, dang,
Speaker 2: we went to russ and we gave up a win
Speaker 2: to the Jets, who everybody's.
Speaker 1: Said in their conference That's what I keep saying. Why
Speaker 1: would you do this in a conference game? You want
Speaker 1: to screw around with Russell Wilson and give him one shot.
Speaker 1: Maybe got some trade value. Maybe the Tennessee Titans want
Speaker 1: to call you up and make a trade for Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson because it's better than Will Levis.
Speaker 2: What I will say I don't guess is that Mike
Speaker 2: Tomlin is my frat brother. Both seven five seven VA guys,
Speaker 2: we have a lot of connections with each other. I
Speaker 2: trust my guy. He turned a team around with Mason
Speaker 2: Rudolph and Duck Hodges. I trust Tomlin. I'm just letting
Speaker 2: you know, my brother, this is a hard decision to
Speaker 2: trust you with right now. But I'm going to trust you.
Speaker 2: But I'm telling you you're not making it easy on me.
Speaker 1: You're really not. That's at the reunion, I'm tell you
Speaker 1: right now. Next year at that reunion is gonna be
Speaker 1: some words there at the open bar. Great stuff, gentlemen.
Speaker 1: As always, don't forget download the Betting Pros app and
Speaker 1: of course he betting Pros dot com for even more content,
Speaker 1: and of course subscribe to the channel and the podcast
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Speaker 1: We're out here every single day making betting content for you.
Speaker 1: That'll do for us, but the story of the game
Speaker 1: goes on for Andrew Erickson and Terrell Furman. I'm Joey P.
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids.
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