WEBVTT - NFL Week 6 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 16) 0:00:07.160 --> 0:00:09.440 Hey there everyone, and welcome back to the Betting Pros 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:12.840 NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, 0:00:12.880 --> 0:00:14.960 Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan 0:00:15.000 --> 0:00:17.440 Harris Ady. It is time for our early look at 0:00:17.440 --> 0:00:19.320 next week's lines. And with me to break it all 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:22.720 down is Jason Logan, the senior managing editor for Covers. 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:25.600 You can find him on Twitter at Covers j Loo. Jason, 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:27.240 thanks again for coming on the show. How's it going. 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:30.320 It's going pretty well? Pretty well? How about yourself? 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:31.920 Not bad? How was week five for you? Out of 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:33.839 curiosity in the betting department? 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:36.280 Week five, I went a little lighter in week five. 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:40.200 Week four was not so good. Yeah, week Week five 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:42.400 was a little hit and miss. But I'm waiting on 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:43.560 the Browns to come through tonight. 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:46.280 All right, Well, we're recording this shortly before kickoff, so 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:47.720 let's see if we can get you there so you 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:49.360 can enjoy the game. 0:00:49.440 --> 0:00:50.959 I have a TVD yell asto. 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:52.320 I got it, I got it. We'll move you in 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:54.560 and out real quick. All right, So Jason and I 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:56.440 are going to go through each game here on the slate. 0:00:56.520 --> 0:00:58.800 For week six, we're going to be using the consensus 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:01.360 odds over at betting pros dot Com. That's just an 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:04.240 aggregation of the odds that are available on the market. 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:06.000 As always, there are going to be differences at the 0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:08.640 various sports books, so make sure you shop around for 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:10.600 the best odds, and also if you want to see 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:12.800 how some of the top sports betting experts are leaning 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:16.160 on any given bet at any given time, bettingpros dot 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:18.680 Com is going to show you that too. All right, Jason, 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:21.080 let's dive right in here with the Giants against the 0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:23.639 Patriots on Thursday night. Right now, I've seen the spread 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:26.360 move all the way up to seventeen. I checked earlier 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:28.399 today it was about sixteen and a half, and the 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:31.480 over under down to forty two and a half, down 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:33.160 from forty four and a half. I don't think I've 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:35.720 seen anything on whether or not Sequon Barkley is actually 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:37.759 going to play, but it does sound like Sterling Shepherd's 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:39.320 probably going to miss this game. I don't know if 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:41.160 that accounts for the move. But what do you think 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:41.759 about the line? 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:44.000 Yeah, I mean they're down to what they're third string 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:44.880 running back. 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:47.800 Right now, John Hilleman, I believe is that it. 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:52.320 Who knows at that point. Barkley wasn't Pats proxicing last week. 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:53.840 I mean, these guys are kind of superheroes and the 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:56.120 way they can come back. But this one's moved though 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:59.560 almost a field goal. Since the opener. Some of the 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:02.560 look ahead lines had minus fourteen, now up to minus seventeen. 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:07.040 It's it's again it's that Belichick versus rookie QB. So 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:11.280 I think, if I have my numbers correct, Patriots versus 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:13.919 rookie QB's at home under Belichick. So that since two 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:16.880 thy eleven and no straight up seven and four against the. 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:21.320 Spread, Okay, well that's certainly something that pour ten's good 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:22.320 things for the Patriots. 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:23.400 Now. 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:25.320 The one thing is the Patriots are dealing with, you know, 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:27.679 some minor injuries to themselves. You know, Philip dor said 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:30.760 it sounds like it's a minor ankle injury. Rex burg 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:32.880 Head may again miss his game. They start out kind 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:35.520 of slow, oddly enough against the Redskins, right, they didn't 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:36.880 look great, and then they wound up you know, and 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:38.320 I know because I live in New England, so my 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:41.160 entire my in laws were not happy. And I'm like 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:43.799 watching the Jets get destroyed by the Eagles. So it's 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:46.400 not a happy Sunday for me, but yeah, I agree. 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:48.280 I mean I think it's at you know, Thursday games. 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:49.959 I don't know how much more this is going to 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:52.840 move at this point, but certainly, and the over under 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:54.960 is dropped by at least when I checked it earlier, 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:57.560 by two points as well. So it sounds like they 0:02:57.639 --> 0:02:59.160 seem to do you have do you see any value 0:02:59.200 --> 0:03:00.959 right now? In the early life it's seventeen or forty 0:03:00.960 --> 0:03:02.640 two and a half or is that about where it is? 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.400 Boy? I mean is yeah, that's a tough one. I mean, 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:09.840 if if you got that early the fourteen, good anya. 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:12.480 But now that it's moving up, I mean I expect 0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:14.720 it to probably move up. I'm not the only one 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:17.360 that's going to spit off these Belichick sort of stats, 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:19.600 and everyone's going to play into that. And if Saquon 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:23.880 Barkley doesn't play, I think that's probably worth another half point, 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:25.919 you know, as the public kind of jumps on that too. 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:28.720 So I mean, seventeen seventeen is still I mean, if 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:31.080 you want to do the football mask stella, seventeen is 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:33.920 still kind of a key number. So to say that 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:36.680 it might be value to get the Pats at minus seventeen. 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.119 Right now, it seems funny coming out of my mouth, 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:42.680 but it might actually be the right play. However, like 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:45.000 you said, they started slow. Brady didn't look good against 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:46.760 the Bills. He didn't look great against the first half 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:50.680 here against the There was the Jets last week. Correct, No, sorry, 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:53.800 never Redskins, Redskins. It might yeah, it could have been anyway. 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:55.840 Man, the Redskins, the Jets, the Dolphins, all. 0:03:55.960 --> 0:03:58.040 Yeah, ring them on. That's right. The Redskins start off 0:03:58.080 --> 0:03:59.680 slow and then they but they make those second half 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:02.640 a job. It was more Sony Michelle than anything. So 0:04:02.720 --> 0:04:04.640 I mean, if you want to say, well, okay, maybe 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:06.400 they stick with Sony Michelle, maybe they stick with the 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:09.320 run game, then it doesn't a lot for that amount 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:11.200 of points to be scored to cover the spread. But 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:13.800 we've seen this defense do work too, so this defense 0:04:13.800 --> 0:04:16.359 can put up points as well too. So now that 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:18.880 it is seventeen and knowing that it is a short 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:21.560 week and probably you don't want to rush back Saquon 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:24.560 Barkley from a high ankle spring, yeah, the Pats minus 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:26.600 seventeen might be as good as it gets right now. 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:28.360 Yeah, I think if I were going to make a 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:29.920 play at this point, it would be on the Pats. 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:32.840 If anything, I think it might move I guess possibly 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:34.640 a little higher. But this is probably in my mind 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:36.640 where it's can settle and if I'm forced to bet 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:39.400 some way, it's probably on the Patriots. But these big lines, man, 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:41.359 I hate them. You know the fact that this is 0:04:41.400 --> 0:04:44.040 just every week you're going to get these these monstrous lines, 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:47.119 Well just in a parody, I know, I know it's crazy. 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:49.159 Well a little more parody here with our next game 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:52.120 in London Panthers versus Buccaneers. I actually did not realize, 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:54.640 so you told me before we started recording that this 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:58.280 is unlike this past week with the Raiders and the Bears, 0:04:58.480 --> 0:04:59.880 this is actually going to be at nine to third, 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:03.680 which just makes me happy because it's all day Sunday football. 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:06.200 The Panthers here are laying two and a half. The 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:07.800 first time I looked it was at one and a half. 0:05:07.839 --> 0:05:09.080 I don't know what the look head line was, but 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:11.240 when I looked at it early, I think last night 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:12.880 it was at Panthers laying one and a half. They're 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:14.320 laying two and a half now and it's moved the 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:16.880 over under up two points from forty six and a 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:18.440 half to forty eight and a half. This is that 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:21.120 rough stretch here for the Bucks. This is basically their 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:23.720 third straight road game, even though they're right, even though 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:25.600 they're the home I don't I don't think they play 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:27.160 a home game until Week ten. 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:30.120 I believe the Bucks and the Raiders are kind of 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.120 on that same yeah highway to hell. It's like forty 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:36.240 nine days without a home game. Yeah. 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:38.799 Meanwhile, the Panthers, I mean they've they've kind of righted 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.040 the ship a bit here with you know, Kyle Allen, 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:44.000 who's kind of, you know, relative more accurate than Cam 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:46.480 Newton was. Christian McCaffrey not a normal human being. 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:47.920 So it has two working legs. 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:50.520 Yeah, that helps, that is So how do you feel here, 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:52.320 Panthers laying two and a half at the moment over 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:53.520 under forty eight and a half? 0:05:53.640 --> 0:05:57.360 Yeah, this is kind of Tampa Bay's run defense, which 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.240 is a giving up only three point one yards per 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:02.039 carries versus McCaffrey. And this might as well be the 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:04.720 Carolina McCaffrey's because that's how this guy has put the 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:07.800 team on his shoulder. But they did a good job 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:09.720 against McCaffrey in week two. I mean, this is kind 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:12.680 of a this is a rematch, a rare rematch already, right, 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:15.200 thirty seven yards on sixteen carries in Week two. The 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:19.760 Panthers defense looked good against Minshew there last week, got 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:23.080 some pressure on him, forced some fumbles. They have twenty 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:26.000 sacks on the season. The Bucks allowed eighteen sacks already 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:28.359 this year. We know that that Jameis Winston isn't the 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:31.080 best decision maker when under pressure, so I could see 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:33.520 why the line has swung such a such so much. 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:37.680 I've seen it open around a pick yep. But like 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:40.359 you said, three three road games in three weeks for 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.600 this Bucks team is that's tough. And then you've got 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:44.880 to go across the pond, and that's just a whole 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.839 it's a whole other Hornets mess. There's so much, so 0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:50.480 many logistics and everything behind those I hate. 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:53.240 I hate betting on Bucks games, I really do. You 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:56.880 don't know what which Jamis Winston is going to show up, right, and. 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:59.920 Then that's exactly what happened last week, exactly looked Terri 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:02.560 Well on Sunday the week before. He was a golden 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:03.320 fantasy gods. 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:05.720 Yeah, absolutely, yeah, I mean I think for me, right now, 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:08.440 I'd probably lean towards the Panthers, but it's just not 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:09.920 a game that I feel comfortable with. I like them 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:11.360 in that first game. I think they were laying six 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:12.960 and a half and they would have won that game, 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:16.040 maybe not covering the spread, had Newton basically been able 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:16.640 to throw the ball. 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:18.400 I'm with you on these early games. I love the 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:21.920 English thinglsh brought breakfast games, right, Bengers and beans and 0:07:22.000 --> 0:07:22.640 the eggs and. 0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:25.840 Toasts absolutely can't go wrong. Let's move on here to 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:29.160 Texans and Chiefs. This one you've seen a load of 0:07:29.240 --> 0:07:31.560 movement in. I mean I checked last night, so I 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:33.680 don't even know what the look aheadline was, but last 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:36.400 night the consensus odes were minus eight. Right now it's 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:38.880 all the way down to minus five. Now, I get 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:41.800 you've got some issues here with the Chiefs after last night. 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.680 Patrick Mahomes dealing with the ankle injury. It doesn't it's 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:46.440 obviously not going to keep him out or anything like that, 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:48.800 but it's limiting him. Sammy Watkins now dealing with a 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.880 hamstring injury on top of the shoulder. Chris Jones suffered 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:53.600 a groin strain and is going to miss the games. 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:56.720 Davier Williams sprained his ankle. He might play. Maybe Tyreek 0:07:56.760 --> 0:07:59.040 Hill comes back. Meanwhile, the Texans put up a big 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:01.440 number over beating down on the Falcons. How do you 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:04.360 feel here? Chiefs now minus five over under still high 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:05.320 fifty five and a half. 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:07.160 Yeah, this one, this one had to move off of 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:10.600 sharp money because it was eight around noon today. It 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:13.880 was still like eight seven and a half and then boom, 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:16.600 instantly within I think within a half an hour, dropped 0:08:16.600 --> 0:08:19.360 to five. So that's that's big play coming in kind 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:22.440 of you know, hedging those injuries. Yeah, I kind of 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:24.920 want to get ahead of the get ahead of those injuries. 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:27.400 And could this be, you know, the betting public falling 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:29.520 out of favor with Kansas City. They had a tough 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:33.080 game in Detroit, didn't cover there and then they get 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:35.680 rolled by the Colts. And it may be that you 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:37.360 look at what the Lions and the Colts did, did 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:41.400 they build the blueprint for beating the Chiefs? And I 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:44.080 talked about it today with Patrick Eeverson, who's our senior 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:47.560 writer in Las Vegas, and said that with this Chiefs defense, 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:48.960 you know they're bad, you know they're going to give 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:51.760 up yards, but you can't if you if you're the offense, 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:54.440 you can't be too greedy that you just blow through 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:56.120 them and then give the ball back to my homes. 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:58.480 And that's what the that's what the Lions and Colts 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:01.000 have done. They've been really really thoughtical with it. The 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:04.240 Detroit ran one hundred and eighty six yards on thirty 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:07.160 five carries. Time of possession was almost thirty four minutes, 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:10.200 and then the Colts ran one hundred and eighty yards 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:12.600 on forty five carries. Time of possession was over thirty 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:13.240 seven minutes. 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:16.600 You know, the problem though, is that the Texans aren't 0:09:16.640 --> 0:09:18.680 really built to run an offense like that, right, I 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:20.400 mean they don't have I mean they have, you know, 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:23.280 they have success running the ball so far generally speaking 0:09:23.320 --> 0:09:25.320 with Hyde and Duke Johnson. But they're they're the type 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:27.640 of team that you know, you turn around, then you 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:30.160 come back and you know, Deshaun Watson's you know, busted 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:32.199 off a fifty yard run or he's throwing them you know, right, 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:34.960 So it's it's almost like an odd you know, way 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.240 to attack them. But this really, I mean, with their injuries, 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:40.040 this is really something that's going to be interesting. I know, 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:42.360 they lost yesterday. But Arrowhead, of course, is still a 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:44.680 difficult place to play. Do you think it's a godly 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:47.000 Do you think it's going to drop lower than minus 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:48.920 five or is this basically where you expect? Maybe? 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.160 Yeah, you know, five being that dead number, and they've 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:53.559 already just blown through so many key numbers. I don't 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:55.680 think it's going to come down too much further than this. 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:58.280 I mean, so it goes through seven and a half 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:01.040 and seven and six and a half, and so five 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.160 seems to be that dead number, that's safe number right 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:05.840 now until they get some more until they get some 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:09.160 more information. Yeah. I need to remember too that usually 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:11.440 limits at the sports books are a little bit lower 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:14.480 earlier in the week when they open these odds. So 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:16.679 I mean, while it is sharp money coming in, they 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:18.439 they may be okay. 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:21.040 I mean, that's a pretty dramatic move, you know, at 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:22.680 least for me. I know you've been doing this for 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:26.400 a while, but three points this early, right off the bat, 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:30.280 especially when there are these limits coming on, It kind 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:32.080 of shocked me to see it go three points without 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:34.920 the major injury, you know, to a major offensive lineman 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:36.760 or someone like Mahomes. So I was a little bit 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:38.640 surprised on this one. All right, Jason, Let's move on 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:41.400 to our next game, Seahawks at the Browns. Browns are 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:43.320 laying two and a half and the over under is 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:46.440 at forty seven. So we're recording this before I guess 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:48.280 the Browns game has just started, so we don't know 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:50.200 what's going to happen tonight. But I was a little 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.720 bit surprised about this one. Just the Browns have looked 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:55.000 a little disjointed. I know, they looked good last week 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:57.920 against the Ravens, but the Seahawks have looked pretty strong. 0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:00.319 I mean they, you know, not great. They have their 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:03.160 defense has been a little leaky, but certainly the offense 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:05.160 has been great. So I honestly expected this to be 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:07.120 closer to maybe like a pick them. I know, it 0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:08.959 doesn't matter that much when you're below sort of the 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:11.079 key number of three, but I'm a little bit surprised 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:12.520 here by the Browns laying two and a half and 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:13.720 the over under at forty seven. 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:16.880 Yeah, I think, I mean, there's still a lot to 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:20.040 be said here with the Monday night game. There were 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:22.040 a lot of positives coming out of Cleveland here over 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:26.040 the last two games, even the last three games, the 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:29.040 defense starting to really pick up, starting to get stingy, 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:32.360 fantastic special teams really pinning teams back. They've got that 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:36.280 strapping Scottish punter pinning guys way back in the ends. 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:39.200 I've giving the defense a good helping hand as well too. 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:42.360 But like you said, this one's still up in the air. 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:45.040 But you know they're back home after two straight on 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.760 the road. They had played i believe, three road games 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:49.599 in four weeks, so a tough stretch to get to 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:52.920 come back home, and you know, give this crowd what 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:56.000 they've been waiting for for a long time now. Seattle, though, 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:59.240 doing a lot of things right, limiting opponents on third downs. 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:02.240 I think twenty nine percent of the last three games 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:04.640 time of possession. They're chewing up the clock, they're running 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:07.560 the football, they're not giving away the ball too. They 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:11.880 got five takeaways. Russell Wilson no interceptions. He's probably the 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:13.719 most It depends on where you're betting and if you're 0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:15.920 a Seahawks fan or not, but he's probably the most 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:19.920 annoying player to watch if you're betting against him, because 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:22.360 there's so many times in which you're cheering your mid 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:24.720 cheer for a sack and all of a sudden, Wilson 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.080 slips out. I mean, he's playing, he's he's earning all 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:30.559 that money, he's playing out at MVP caliber right now. Again, 0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:32.360 there's so much to be left to be said here 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:35.839 for Cleveland Monday night. But yeah, Seattle just looks really, 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:36.680 really good right now. 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:39.439 Yeah, and really one of the reasons why I was 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:41.560 surprised is you know that the Browns are playing right now, 0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:43.440 it's Monday night. It's going to be a short week. Meanwhile, 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:45.960 Seattle is basically playing off a mini bi here where 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:48.400 they played on Thursday, so they have extra rest. And 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:51.080 yet to your point about Wilson at one, correct, I 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:53.280 mean to throw the touchdown there that you got it 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:54.120 on Thursday night. 0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:57.520 Not I wasn't even that wasn't upset and I had 0:12:57.559 --> 0:12:59.640 the Rams. I had the Rams plus two, and I 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:01.840 wasn't he been upset. I was like, that's pretty damn nice. Bro. 0:13:02.240 --> 0:13:04.400 Well you wind up winning anyway, so that's all good. 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:06.280 So yeah, well we'll see what happens. I think it's 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:09.280 probably going to depend on tonight's game, because again, if 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:11.400 the Browns come out and they look really strong again, 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.160 then then things have probably changed and maybe that that 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:15.280 line's correct. 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:16.880 And I think the line is set kind of where 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:20.120 it can move right now. Sure off of that, so 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:22.079 if they have a bad performance, so they can kind 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:24.920 of maybe ticket down. If they look good, it can 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.040 go up to the touchdown or sorry, the field goal. 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:29.520 Absolutely. All right, let's move on here to the Bengals 0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:32.120 at the Ravens. This one, when I first checked was 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:34.760 the Ravens laying ten. It has moved to currently Ravens 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.680 laying eleven and a half. The over under has moved 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:40.000 half a point up to forty eight from forty seven 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:41.920 and a half. Not look the Ravens. They have not 0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:46.400 looked particularly impressive lately. They didn't against the Steelers necessarily, 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.000 they just lost Tony Jefferson. Marquise Brown is dealing with 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.000 an ankle injury. They barely squeak by the Steelers. But really, 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:54.200 on the other side you have the Bengals, which is 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.160 basically a pure dumpster fire at this point. So, I mean, 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.000 are we gonna keep is this sharp money? By the way, 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:00.640 do you think that's moving it up from ten to 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:01.360 eleven and a half? 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:04.960 I mean, usually early money is sharp money to begin with, 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:08.360 But there's a lot of injuries to the Cincinnati team 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:09.600 right now. There is a team that likes to throw 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:11.600 the ball in seventy percent of snaps and they don't 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:14.920 have any wide receivers that left. Green's gone, Ross has gone, 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:18.520 Alec Erickson out with a concussion. Yeah, it's basically Tyler 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:22.240 Boyd and on and Tate Yeah, and then yeah, they're 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.080 going to be bringing some guys out of the stands 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:27.560 to catch some balls. Yeah. But it's like you said, 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.720 the Ravens haven't looked great. It's a possible look ahead 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:33.120 spot for them because they have Seattle next week. They 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:36.400 go to Seattle. They haven't covered a spread in four 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:40.080 weeks since the massacre against Miami there, right, And I 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:43.320 actually I've liked the Bengals this season. I've actually bet 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.200 them three times on the road and they've gone two 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:47.520 and one for me. And they've been a good bet 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:49.800 on the road. So since two thousand and seven, they're 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.880 thirteen and six ats on the road yep. And they're 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:55.360 eleven and six ats as a road dog. However, that 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:59.080 Monday night game against the Steelers just completely soured me. Here. 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:02.360 They got gas on the ground by Arizona as well too. 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:04.440 Gave up two hundred and sixty six yards and that's 0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:06.120 exactly what the Ravens are going to do. They're just 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:08.840 going to run it down their throats. You know. Do 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.440 the Ravens take their foot off the gas at the end. 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.320 I don't know. It's a divisional game. I guess I 0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:15.440 would have to lean Ravens here, But since the line 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:18.160 is ticking upward and gone through the key numbers there, 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:19.440 I just I don't want to touch it. 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:21.880 Yeah, I hate this line. I'm not going anywhere near it. 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:23.600 And I agree, Yeah, I love the Bengals on the road. 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:25.480 I bet them, you know, especially when they were against 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:29.000 the Bills and in Week two getting six, which they covered, 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:31.840 you know, Andy Dalton. In primetime, you never know, you know, 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:33.960 for that Monday night game that's a little scary. This 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:35.880 one is not in primetime. But I agree, this is 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:37.920 a game where look, if I if I had to, 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:40.200 you know, sort of lay a position, it would probably 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:41.560 be on the Ravens if it's going to stay at 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:43.640 eleven and a half. But it is not something where 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:45.760 I'm looking a bit. It's just something where you could 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.160 easily see, you know, sort of like the Cardinals, not 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:49.520 in the same way, but they were way ahead and 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:51.200 they just kind of eased up a little bit and 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:53.040 in the end almost wound up losing that game. 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:55.800 And Bengals have Bengals have been strong in the second 0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:57.920 half of games. Yeah, so it could be a dirty 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:02.320 back door cover. Yeah, talk to me like Sunday at 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:04.200 like twelve fifty five. 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:06.880 All right, we'll do an emergency podcast that'll be like, yeah, 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.440 of course, no, absolutely, Yeah, it's a it's a little tough, 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.080 but I agree, it's just not one that I particularly 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:17.680 like before. Maybe yeah, I mean, yeah, if you get 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:19.400 if you get a few more numbers up there for 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:21.760 the Ravens, I may bite the bullet here and go 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:23.600 to the Bengals because you do. You're right, they are 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:26.160 very good against the spread when they're on the road. 0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:30.720 So the game against the Steelers notwithstanding. But anyway, before 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:32.520 we move on, I want to tell everybody about the 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:35.560 sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. You know about bet 0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:38.920 mgm already, and in particular the bet mgm Sports app, 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:41.200