1
00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,960
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud read.

2
00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:13,520
Speaker 2: Enough there for running a game so smooge, so sweet,

3
00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:19,239
Speaker 2: slipid sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

4
00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,520
Speaker 2: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

5
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:24,239
Speaker 2: How shot with that?

6
00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:25,480
Speaker 1: Shop with mind?

7
00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 3: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

8
00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

9
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,040
Speaker 1: Nobody kicks them.

10
00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,720
Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying.

11
00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:42,400
Speaker 4: The love.

12
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:43,560
Speaker 2: It's left too.

13
00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:45,440
Speaker 1: The wide eyed.

14
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:50,040
Speaker 2: Drilled bibus how old earth pick that happens?

15
00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:55,080
Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting

16
00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:59,360
Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. I'm your host today BJ Cunningham,

17
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,080
Speaker 4: and I'll be joined in just a moment by my

18
00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,399
Speaker 4: friend and colleague Anthony Dubundo as we break down the

19
00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:09,160
Speaker 4: Europa League Final, the FA Cup Final, DFP Pocal Final,

20
00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:12,800
Speaker 4: along with a little junt around Europe to Spain, Italy

21
00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,679
Speaker 4: and France to close out the regular season in those leagues.

22
00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,200
Speaker 4: But first, Wonder Goal is probably presented by Bet three

23
00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,760
Speaker 4: sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with

24
00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:23,839
Speaker 4: the promo code Action to get BET three six fives

25
00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 4: exclusive sign up offer. Bet one dollar on any game

26
00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,880
Speaker 4: and get two hundred in bonus. Bets must be twenty

27
00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,600
Speaker 4: one or older. Offers available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio,

28
00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,720
Speaker 4: and Virginia in the United States. Gambling problem call or

29
00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:42,959
Speaker 4: text one eight hundred gambler. All right, first up, it's

30
00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:47,880
Speaker 4: the Europa League Final. It's Jose Mourinho's Roma taking on Sevilla.

31
00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,240
Speaker 1: The line is moving quite a bit for this one.

32
00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,680
Speaker 4: Sevilla is currently sitting at plus one eighty seven, Rama

33
00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:55,440
Speaker 4: sitting at plus one seventy five, with the draw at

34
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:56,400
Speaker 4: plus one ninety.

35
00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 1: Those are the three way.

36
00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:02,160
Speaker 4: Ninety minute lines, and both teams are minus one ten

37
00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 4: each way to lift the Europa League Trophy. Anthony, we

38
00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:09,120
Speaker 4: if you've listened to one or goal, you know we

39
00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,680
Speaker 4: all have a twenty three to one ticket on Roma.

40
00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,200
Speaker 4: You know, if some people like to ask questions about, like,

41
00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:17,840
Speaker 4: what do you do in this situation? If you have

42
00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,920
Speaker 4: that ticket, do you hedge on Sevilla? You know, obviously

43
00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,840
Speaker 4: being minus one ten, I think you know, we'll obviously

44
00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,680
Speaker 4: get into in just a second. But for me, hedging

45
00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:29,760
Speaker 4: is always kind of a delicate thing, you know, it

46
00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,080
Speaker 4: really just depends how much.

47
00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:33,200
Speaker 1: You know you have on that ticket.

48
00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,760
Speaker 4: Like, if it's you know, a substantial amount of money

49
00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:37,480
Speaker 4: to you, I would probably say, yeah, I would probably

50
00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,080
Speaker 4: hadge a piece off of it. If it's just, you know,

51
00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:41,520
Speaker 4: something that's not really going to change your life, or

52
00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:43,919
Speaker 4: just a nice payday, you know, maybe.

53
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:44,320
Speaker 1: Just let it ride.

54
00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,799
Speaker 4: Personally, I'll be letting the twenty three to one ticket ride.

55
00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,400
Speaker 4: And will you be doing the same or will you

56
00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:50,840
Speaker 4: be throwing a little bit of a hedge on Sevilla.

57
00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,720
Speaker 3: Look, if Roma had opened as like a solid favorite here,

58
00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,839
Speaker 3: you know minus one forty one fifty, I probably would

59
00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,040
Speaker 3: have taken a piece off of my Roma ticket and

60
00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,519
Speaker 3: grab some Sevilla plus money because I think Roma is

61
00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:02,799
Speaker 3: a slight favorite, but I don't think it's like a

62
00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,160
Speaker 3: huge edge in this final. But you know, in minus

63
00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,440
Speaker 3: one ten, I'm not laying juice to hedge out of

64
00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:11,000
Speaker 3: this ticket. It's a twenty three to one ticket.

65
00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:11,400
Speaker 2: You know.

66
00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,359
Speaker 3: Marinho's history here, and you know that I personally think

67
00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:20,919
Speaker 3: that Roma is the better team. What's interesting about Roma

68
00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,200
Speaker 3: is that the market has not really budged on this

69
00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,520
Speaker 3: team consistently, and I know that the form has been

70
00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,440
Speaker 3: bad in Syria. They kind of punted away. They haven't

71
00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,160
Speaker 3: won in seven matches now, they've been rotating through the team.

72
00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:34,480
Speaker 3: They've had a ton of injuries, which has not helped.

73
00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,400
Speaker 3: Losing to Bala is a huge loss. But he's now

74
00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,040
Speaker 3: cleared to play, and it's going to probably come off

75
00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,560
Speaker 3: the bench, right imagine, play like a half or you know,

76
00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,520
Speaker 3: if they need extra time. I don't think he'll start

77
00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,680
Speaker 3: necessarily on Wednesday, but I just kind of think that

78
00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,840
Speaker 3: Roma's the more consistent, better defense and that will ultimately

79
00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:54,560
Speaker 3: play here. But let's go back through the history kind

80
00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:56,200
Speaker 3: of like how we got to this point, because this

81
00:03:56,320 --> 00:04:00,360
Speaker 3: Roma team was like minus one fifteen against Rioso to

82
00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,360
Speaker 3: advance in the around of sixteen, and then in the

83
00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,040
Speaker 3: quarterfinals they were you know, minus one forty to fifty

84
00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:11,680
Speaker 3: against Finnoid, and then they were a dog even money

85
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,800
Speaker 3: Leverkusen was minus one thirty to advance in the Semis.

86
00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,360
Speaker 3: So this has been pretty consistently, and I feel like

87
00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,200
Speaker 3: I've said this every single time. So maybe the Fineoid

88
00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,320
Speaker 3: round that the market is just too low on this

89
00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,680
Speaker 3: Roma team and in their their ability to defend the

90
00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,279
Speaker 3: penalty area. I mean, this is historic stuff that they've

91
00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,920
Speaker 3: put up in terms of defending their penalty area. And

92
00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,360
Speaker 3: you saw it kind of against Leaverkusen, where you know,

93
00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,680
Speaker 3: they had twenty three shots, they had all of the possession,

94
00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,440
Speaker 3: but they never really look like scoring in that second

95
00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:41,880
Speaker 3: leg because they weren't able to break it down and

96
00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,920
Speaker 3: create anything over you know, the average xgeper shot was

97
00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,800
Speaker 3: zero point oh four and they just weren't conceding any

98
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,440
Speaker 3: you know, clear chances from dangerous areas, but a lot

99
00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,200
Speaker 3: of the shots were blocked or off target or from

100
00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:57,920
Speaker 3: twenty five yards. This roma defense in Europe's top five

101
00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:01,960
Speaker 3: leagues is the best in terms of XG allout. You know,

102
00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,000
Speaker 3: Man City's right there with them, Napoli is right there

103
00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,919
Speaker 3: with them. But you know, from a match to match perspective,

104
00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:13,599
Speaker 3: even with zero wins in seven they have conceded just

105
00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,280
Speaker 3: thirty one expected goals this year. And you know, you

106
00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:18,560
Speaker 3: look at Sevilla and you kind of have to like

107
00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,560
Speaker 3: scroll all the way down the chart to find them

108
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,400
Speaker 3: because their defense just hasn't been very good and we

109
00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,440
Speaker 3: and Sevia has improved, don't get me wrong, but they're

110
00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,679
Speaker 3: conceding a little bit over one point twenty five XGU

111
00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,560
Speaker 3: p ninety In Spain, this year, and that's a much

112
00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:32,960
Speaker 3: more defensive league than Italy is. So I think when

113
00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:34,719
Speaker 3: it comes down to it and the series, being in

114
00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,560
Speaker 3: good form is important for sure. Like but Marcos Secunya,

115
00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,960
Speaker 3: who's their best crosser of the ball, is out suspended.

116
00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:43,640
Speaker 3: He picked up a red card in the second leg

117
00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,680
Speaker 3: against Juventus, So I think that there's going to be

118
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:51,240
Speaker 3: real problems here for Sevilla breaking them down and with

119
00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,040
Speaker 3: the creation from Pellegrini and to Bala. I just trust

120
00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:57,359
Speaker 3: Roma more so an even money situation, I have no

121
00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,360
Speaker 3: desire to hedch my ticket if you're not already invested

122
00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:01,839
Speaker 3: in Roma, and I feel like I've said this a lot.

123
00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:03,720
Speaker 3: If you're not invested in the ticket, I bet them

124
00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,719
Speaker 3: again once more. I bet them to win this tournament

125
00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,760
Speaker 3: because I think that they should be about minus one

126
00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:16,279
Speaker 3: twenty seven based on my number. Now. The other you

127
00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:19,080
Speaker 3: know thing to consider is that Patricio is probably worse

128
00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,119
Speaker 3: than Bunu in terms of shot stopping, and that's always

129
00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,440
Speaker 3: a concern because he really hasn't had a great year.

130
00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:25,640
Speaker 3: It's scary to think how good this defense would have

131
00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,719
Speaker 3: been if he had a good shot stopping year. But again,

132
00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:33,000
Speaker 3: like I said, Roma trusting the pedigree, trusting you know,

133
00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:36,960
Speaker 3: the manager, and trusting the defense to bring us home

134
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:38,760
Speaker 3: on that twenty three to one. It would be a

135
00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,640
Speaker 3: hell of a cash and you know we have a

136
00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:42,359
Speaker 3: couple more left too.

137
00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:44,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.

138
00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,400
Speaker 4: So yeah, if let's just say you're somebody who doesn't

139
00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,320
Speaker 4: have the twenty three to one ticket and you want

140
00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,680
Speaker 4: to bet this match, I would with thousand percent take

141
00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:52,440
Speaker 4: Roma and drawn no bet or to lift the trophy

142
00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:53,200
Speaker 4: at minus one ten.

143
00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:54,720
Speaker 1: So Savilla.

144
00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,320
Speaker 4: It's interesting because they're under the third manager now, Mendel

145
00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:05,080
Speaker 4: Lebar has improved them from the previous two managers. Now

146
00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,520
Speaker 4: they I was reading some kind of interesting tackle stuff

147
00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:08,880
Speaker 4: about Sevia because I want to know what they've been

148
00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,760
Speaker 4: doing differently and how they've kind of improved. And so

149
00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,680
Speaker 4: what they're kind of doing is they're doing the Deservey

150
00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,680
Speaker 4: style of like baiting teams and depressing them, but they're

151
00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:21,000
Speaker 4: not doing the combination passing or playing through the middle

152
00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,000
Speaker 4: of the pitch like they did under low Potagy. What

153
00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,200
Speaker 4: they're doing is they're essentially saying, Okay, once the pressure comes,

154
00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,760
Speaker 4: it's medium to long balls up the middle, up the pitch.

155
00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,320
Speaker 4: Usually it's incessary running off the you know, the back

156
00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:36,200
Speaker 4: line of the defense, trying to create opportunities there. That's

157
00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:38,000
Speaker 4: not really gonna happen against Roma because Roma's not going

158
00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:39,360
Speaker 4: to press them high. They're going to sit back and

159
00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:42,200
Speaker 4: they're going to sit deep. So when Sevilla's going against

160
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,320
Speaker 4: the low block, what they like to do, and this

161
00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,040
Speaker 4: is something they've done for a very long time, is

162
00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:50,280
Speaker 4: create numerical advantages on the with the wide sides of

163
00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:54,119
Speaker 4: the pitch and swinging crosses. Well, that doesn't really work

164
00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,840
Speaker 4: against Roma. Romo's the number one team in Syria defending

165
00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,680
Speaker 4: crosses into their penalty areas. So you have a Sevilla

166
00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,240
Speaker 4: team that has been you know, one point two xtally

167
00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:04,480
Speaker 4: per ninety offensively the season, which has been okay but

168
00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:06,800
Speaker 4: like really not that good, like you said in Seri,

169
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:10,360
Speaker 4: has been in form but up against the like you said,

170
00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,640
Speaker 4: they're the best almost the best low block in Europe

171
00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,000
Speaker 4: and it's not even really close right now.

172
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,240
Speaker 1: I mean they are final third.

173
00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,560
Speaker 4: To penalty box entry conversion rate is nineteen point four percent.

174
00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,360
Speaker 4: That is insanely good. And I went through it as well.

175
00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:27,040
Speaker 4: Against the top seven teams in Syria. Ah, not one

176
00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:29,240
Speaker 4: team has created over one expected goal against them in

177
00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,680
Speaker 4: a match like that is insanely impressive.

178
00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:31,880
Speaker 5: I know.

179
00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:33,480
Speaker 4: This is something that you've also mentioned as well, is

180
00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,640
Speaker 4: that Roma offensively when they do place the top teams

181
00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,360
Speaker 4: in Italy, you know, they're only averaging around one expected

182
00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,760
Speaker 4: goal per ninety minutes. But they've been they've been good

183
00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:45,480
Speaker 4: in direct counter attacking opportunities, and you saw that throughout

184
00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:47,360
Speaker 4: this whole Europa League run, where that's all they need

185
00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,800
Speaker 4: is just one or two big chances going forward. And

186
00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:54,120
Speaker 4: the way Savilla sets up out of possession actually is

187
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,520
Speaker 4: very very conducive for that, because Savilla wants to get

188
00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,520
Speaker 4: into your face, they want to press you high, and

189
00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,040
Speaker 4: they do play a very high line. But they have

190
00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,760
Speaker 4: average to blow average defenders that are defending in transition.

191
00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,319
Speaker 4: It's why they've been so bad defensively all season in Spain.

192
00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,680
Speaker 4: So this match really tactley sets up perfectly for how

193
00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,680
Speaker 4: Roma wants to play, with a average to blow average

194
00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,160
Speaker 4: offense at breaking down a low block and a blow

195
00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,680
Speaker 4: average defense defending in transition that wants to play a

196
00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:20,880
Speaker 4: high line. I mean, you can't set it up more

197
00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,839
Speaker 4: perfectly for Jose Amarino here. So you know I had

198
00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:26,120
Speaker 4: Rama just for the first ninety minutes line protected at

199
00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:28,000
Speaker 4: minus one oh six, I might pe a little bit

200
00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:29,840
Speaker 4: high on them. You know, that's obviously taken into account

201
00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,360
Speaker 4: all of Sevilla's data from the entire season when they

202
00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 4: were so bad to begin So if we did it

203
00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:37,920
Speaker 4: for you know, recent form, I probably would be a

204
00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,600
Speaker 4: little bit lower on Rama. But again, I mean this

205
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,480
Speaker 4: is a Roma team that's been around a plus one

206
00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:48,319
Speaker 4: actually differential for ninety this season. So Roma, Jose Mourinho

207
00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,520
Speaker 4: the lift the trophy minus won ten for me.

208
00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think when we talk about what happened

209
00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:59,800
Speaker 3: in the semifinal with Sevilla against Juventus, Uventus is some

210
00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,800
Speaker 3: somewhat similar and that they don't really press when they

211
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,959
Speaker 3: lose possession, they drop back, they're very passive. They let

212
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,400
Speaker 3: you bring the ball into the final third pretty consistently,

213
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,120
Speaker 3: and Sevilla was able to do that. But then there's

214
00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,000
Speaker 3: the difference, which is that like Roma and Juventus have

215
00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,560
Speaker 3: similar styles, but they're just very different in terms of

216
00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,760
Speaker 3: ability to execute it. I mean, Juventus is like seventh

217
00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:23,680
Speaker 3: and xg allowed in Italy and Roma's first and Roma,

218
00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,080
Speaker 3: you know, Juventus lets you into the penalty area and

219
00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,080
Speaker 3: Sylvia had a ton of success getting to the penalty

220
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,280
Speaker 3: area against Juventus and Roma doesn't allow it. So I

221
00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:32,920
Speaker 3: think you're going to see a lot of Seville attacks

222
00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:34,920
Speaker 3: break down outside the penalty area, and I think you're

223
00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:37,240
Speaker 3: going to see them look dangerous over the top. Juventus

224
00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,040
Speaker 3: also wasn't really as well designed to take advantage with

225
00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:42,319
Speaker 3: Volovic as the main striker, Like he's just not a

226
00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,319
Speaker 3: run in behind guy. He's kind of just not very

227
00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:49,960
Speaker 3: good by the way, which is funny, but like he

228
00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,760
Speaker 3: he is more of the traditional target man type player

229
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,480
Speaker 3: and they just aren't getting they weren't getting those kind

230
00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:59,400
Speaker 3: of runs in behind. And when they kind of shifted

231
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:01,600
Speaker 3: how they were playing saying they were, they were able

232
00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,679
Speaker 3: to generate a lot more against Sevilla. So I I

233
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:10,160
Speaker 3: do think that this, this drama team is is much

234
00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:14,000
Speaker 3: better designed and this interesting, Like Pellegrini, there's only three

235
00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,640
Speaker 3: player four players in Europe that have over one hundred

236
00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:21,320
Speaker 3: shots and chances created in uh in Italy in the

237
00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,960
Speaker 3: top top five leagues this year, and it's it's like

238
00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 3: Messi Vinnie Junior Pellegrini, like that's the company that he's

239
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,840
Speaker 3: kind of in. That's from the analyst, so you know,

240
00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,200
Speaker 3: he's been excellent. And then of course, like Davala as

241
00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,160
Speaker 3: like the super sub to come in and just be

242
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:39,960
Speaker 3: the transition and be the ball progresser, the guy who

243
00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,439
Speaker 3: brings the ball into the final like he into the

244
00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,520
Speaker 3: final third, like he is so good at that, and

245
00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:48,679
Speaker 3: I think that is kind of a thing that without Acuna,

246
00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,840
Speaker 3: especially that Sevia just doesn't really have. So it will

247
00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:52,400
Speaker 3: be interesting.

248
00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:53,360
Speaker 5: I'm excited for it.

249
00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,160
Speaker 3: It's probably gonna be a terrible soccer manage in reality,

250
00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:59,160
Speaker 3: but it does.

251
00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:02,800
Speaker 4: I mean that match against Leverkusen, like you mentioned, twenty

252
00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:05,480
Speaker 4: three shots, only one shot had Next Year rating over

253
00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,440
Speaker 4: point one, like that's just what Roma does. And you

254
00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:10,280
Speaker 4: know the thing about Seville as well, is like, let's

255
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,839
Speaker 4: not forget they. I understand that the second leg went

256
00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,319
Speaker 4: into extra time against Juventus, but they did concede three

257
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,400
Speaker 4: point eight expected goals over the two legs, so let's

258
00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,040
Speaker 4: not sit here in at like they had this great defensive

259
00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,040
Speaker 4: performance against a pretty average offensive team.

260
00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:23,679
Speaker 5: And it'll exactly.

261
00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have questions about Sevia, and look I bet

262
00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:29,079
Speaker 3: them last round. I like them against Juventus, but I

263
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,679
Speaker 3: don't like them in this matchup, so especially as a

264
00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:36,079
Speaker 3: coin flip. So yeah, Roma, let's cash it. That made

265
00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,280
Speaker 3: me feel much better about next week's finals when you know,

266
00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:39,760
Speaker 3: with Fiorentina and Inter.

267
00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,360
Speaker 4: And I mean, let's not forget like Roma's also played

268
00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:45,920
Speaker 4: two Spanish teams throughout this whole thing, like they they

269
00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,000
Speaker 4: were in a group with Real Bettis to begin the

270
00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,120
Speaker 4: whole competition. Although they did, you know, losing draw against them,

271
00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,600
Speaker 4: they won the XT battle pretty comfortably in both meetings,

272
00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,000
Speaker 4: and then they obviously beat Rea Associated, which is a

273
00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:59,680
Speaker 4: significantly better team than Sevilla is.

274
00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,600
Speaker 3: So I mean this is a thing, like you said,

275
00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,800
Speaker 3: like they were the lines of coin flip against Sociodon. Yeah,

276
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:10,160
Speaker 3: is so much originally better by a lot than Sevilla,

277
00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:14,720
Speaker 3: no matter what form you put Seville in, right, So yeah,

278
00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:16,679
Speaker 3: I mean it's it's interesting to see this line. I'm

279
00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:17,360
Speaker 3: surprised by it.

280
00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:19,920
Speaker 1: Right, Okay, let's move on. The market has.

281
00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,040
Speaker 3: Flipped Roma, Syvia opened a favorite. They opened about minus

282
00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,480
Speaker 3: twenty five and now Roma's most shops, uh the money

283
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,240
Speaker 3: line favorite here with the coin flip roughly a coin

284
00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:30,800
Speaker 3: flip on who lifts the trophy.

285
00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:34,840
Speaker 4: But and Sevilla's had like outside of the Europa League

286
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:36,640
Speaker 4: you know, run in here, like they've had a very

287
00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,319
Speaker 4: easy schedule to end the season here in Syria or

288
00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:41,839
Speaker 4: in La Liga. And then they went and played Real

289
00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,080
Speaker 4: Madrid over the weekend, who did not care about the match,

290
00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,560
Speaker 4: who is already on the beach. They went up one

291
00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,360
Speaker 4: nothing and then just Real Madrid just kept creating chance

292
00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,120
Speaker 4: after chance after chance against them, like it's yeah.

293
00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:56,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, Sevia rotated to like yeah, and the Syria didn't play,

294
00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,680
Speaker 3: but but yeah, I mean it, it's just like not

295
00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,160
Speaker 3: that good of a team. They're an never LaLiga team.

296
00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:02,760
Speaker 3: It's some point you are what your number say you are,

297
00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:04,280
Speaker 3: and like they're an average Liga team that as bad

298
00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:05,720
Speaker 3: as they were early in the season, that as good

299
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,880
Speaker 3: as they were last year, they're just a half right,

300
00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,679
Speaker 3: ro almost much better than average in Italy this year.

301
00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, let's move on because we have the

302
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:18,040
Speaker 4: FA Cup Final on Saturday at ten am Eastern time,

303
00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,200
Speaker 4: and it's a Manchester derby, Manchester City taking on Manchester United.

304
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,680
Speaker 4: The ninety minute line is Manchester City minus two hundred.

305
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:27,840
Speaker 4: United is plus four seventy five with a draw at

306
00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:31,960
Speaker 4: plus three seventy five, Manchester City is minus four hundred

307
00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:34,840
Speaker 4: to take home the trophy. United is sitting at three

308
00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:41,680
Speaker 4: to one to lift the FA Cup trophy. I am

309
00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,000
Speaker 4: going to have to do something here that I haven't

310
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,800
Speaker 4: done all season. I think I'm gonna have to bet

311
00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,360
Speaker 4: United in this because I think the market is overrating City.

312
00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:51,360
Speaker 4: But I'll let you go first.

313
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:53,200
Speaker 3: Well, I kind of want you to go first now

314
00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,320
Speaker 3: because I'm actually ixplored by that statement that I can.

315
00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:56,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, I they process it.

316
00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,000
Speaker 4: I mean this was going was going through all the

317
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:03,280
Speaker 4: numbers last night and like, here's the thing. City, the

318
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:05,120
Speaker 4: way they've set up tactically is going to be much

319
00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:09,280
Speaker 4: different than the match at Old Trafford where United, uh,

320
00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,160
Speaker 4: you know, basically had two direct counter attacking opportunities in

321
00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:13,920
Speaker 4: the final ten minutes and secured a two one win.

322
00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,520
Speaker 4: But you know, in that match, you know, it did

323
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,760
Speaker 4: an incredible job of closing off the middle of the

324
00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:21,680
Speaker 4: pitch and not allowing City to play.

325
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:22,160
Speaker 5: Through the middle.

326
00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:26,000
Speaker 4: Now, you know, you City obviously sets up very differently

327
00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,800
Speaker 4: right now, you know, with the with their three, with

328
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,920
Speaker 4: their three two four one basically playing five center backs

329
00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,040
Speaker 4: on the pitch. And I saw this tweet it out there,

330
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:36,680
Speaker 4: and I think it's kind of perfect. It's just like

331
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,560
Speaker 4: you know, last year City was defending with you know,

332
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 4: Kyle Walker and Kinsalo and white areas.

333
00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,160
Speaker 1: Now they're doing with Aka and.

334
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:47,040
Speaker 4: Akanji and then Stones and Diaz through the middle, and

335
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,600
Speaker 4: it's just they're like people are trying to go and

336
00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:54,120
Speaker 4: transition against like literle like monster defenders who are so

337
00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,840
Speaker 4: good at defending but also so good at possessing the ball,

338
00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,800
Speaker 4: ball carrying and progressing the ball the middle of the pitch.

339
00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:06,000
Speaker 4: So from a matchup perspective, it does worry me a

340
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,520
Speaker 4: little bit about United because what we've seen from United

341
00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,240
Speaker 4: throughout this a lot of the season is teams that

342
00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:14,120
Speaker 4: can counterpress them effectively. They can't really build out of

343
00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,200
Speaker 4: the back, so it requires them to be very direct,

344
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 4: very transitional, which you know is something they could have

345
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 4: success with against City, although it's unlikely. But where I

346
00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,800
Speaker 4: get down to the end is just from a market perspective,

347
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:29,840
Speaker 4: I think City is vastly.

348
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 5: Overvalued here at minus two hundred.

349
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:33,200
Speaker 4: You know, I only have them at minus one twenty

350
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,440
Speaker 4: seven for the first ninety minutes of this in on

351
00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:40,360
Speaker 4: a neutral field, and that's where I've come down to

352
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:42,000
Speaker 4: where I maybe I don't like the matchup, so much

353
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,280
Speaker 4: for United, but the market is way way too high

354
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:49,200
Speaker 4: on City. Like what I know, they destroyed Real Madrid,

355
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:50,800
Speaker 4: but they were too high on them in the first

356
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,880
Speaker 4: leg of that one. I know they destroyed Leipzig, but

357
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 4: like they were too high in on them for that

358
00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 4: one as well.

359
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 1: So I don't want to do it, I really don't.

360
00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,880
Speaker 4: But my the numbers are telling me to bet Manchester United,

361
00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,120
Speaker 4: so I'm going to have to do that. Plus one

362
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,040
Speaker 4: at even money was the best number I could find

363
00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,280
Speaker 4: for the first ninety minutes. I'm not gonna bet them

364
00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,560
Speaker 4: to lift the trophy, but I do think there is

365
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 4: a decent chance that United gets this extra time against

366
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,120
Speaker 4: their rivals if they can put in a similar defensive

367
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 4: performance like they did at Old Trafford. Now they've been

368
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:27,080
Speaker 4: poor against top level competition away from Old Trafford, and

369
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:30,760
Speaker 4: that's kind of what's worrying here, it does. You know,

370
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 4: not having los Ange Martinez also hurts. But Ron's been

371
00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,800
Speaker 4: back Linda last been very very good and you know,

372
00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:39,359
Speaker 4: a fill enroll there at center back. They have good

373
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:43,240
Speaker 4: defenders in wide areas with Shaw and Juanavsaka to defend

374
00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:45,719
Speaker 4: Mares in Grealish. So if they're able to close off

375
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,440
Speaker 4: the middle of the pitch, and those two are able

376
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:51,199
Speaker 4: to be good defending in wide areas. I think they

377
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:54,160
Speaker 4: can shut City down for an extended period of time.

378
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 4: So I'm going to take the full goal with United

379
00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:58,280
Speaker 4: BLUs one at even money.

380
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure how you know. This kind of

381
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:05,399
Speaker 3: brushed across my mind, but you know, Tottenham and Man

382
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,960
Speaker 3: United have had very interesting seasons and I kind of

383
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 3: railed on Spurs and I've shoot on them and said,

384
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:12,960
Speaker 3: you know, they're really bad.

385
00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:13,320
Speaker 1: And they are.

386
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:19,120
Speaker 3: And they conceded sixty three goals in thirty eight matches. Now,

387
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 3: there was some bad goalkeeping in there from Laris and

388
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:27,719
Speaker 3: Foster and whatnot. I United, though, conceded forty three goals,

389
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,080
Speaker 3: which is quite good. In fact, it's the you know,

390
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 3: tied for the third best in the league with Arsenal. Now,

391
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 3: if you went based solely off of XG, who do

392
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 3: you think has conceded more expected goals this year? Todd

393
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:39,520
Speaker 3: them are Man United.

394
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,200
Speaker 4: Well, I'm looking at it right now and it's crazy

395
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:45,760
Speaker 4: right at a little bit, but yeah, it is crazy.

396
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, And because I want to but the under here

397
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 3: and I actually show a little bit value on it.

398
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:55,919
Speaker 3: But I'm just concerned about what I've seen from this

399
00:18:56,040 --> 00:19:00,359
Speaker 3: United defense, and I think that you know, Cities is

400
00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 3: just in a different way now than it was in

401
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 3: the last meeting, you know.

402
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:05,440
Speaker 5: Which was.

403
00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,040
Speaker 3: Right after the World Cup break, when you know, we

404
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,919
Speaker 3: kept having that conversation and kept I kept saying it,

405
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 3: especially that like City's attack was worse and that they

406
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 3: hadn't figured out Holland yet and that the shots were

407
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,920
Speaker 3: down and they weren't like all that was objectively true

408
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:21,640
Speaker 3: for a while, and then they just like figured it out.

409
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,440
Speaker 3: Pep was a good manager, they solved the problems, and

410
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:28,119
Speaker 3: they became the super nova of which I have definitely

411
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,159
Speaker 3: lost more money than made betting against them in the

412
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:34,679
Speaker 3: last month and a half two months. But I'm just

413
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 3: like I can't get to this number either, Like I

414
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 3: can't lay it with City. I show value against them

415
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 3: winning both Cups. Now, Yeah, part of me wants me

416
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 3: to just like throw a half a unit on both

417
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:52,199
Speaker 3: dogs and then say, you know, if they win the treble,

418
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:54,879
Speaker 3: you know, I tip my hat. But if not, like

419
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 3: here I am because there are some reasons to be

420
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 3: a little bit concerned because like they win the league,

421
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:07,679
Speaker 3: right because Arsenal loses at Forrest, which I haven't been

422
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 3: on the pod since, so I want to make that

423
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:13,680
Speaker 3: point knowing that Arsenal loss to Forrest, but like, let's

424
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,199
Speaker 3: go back and look now at what we've gotten from

425
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 3: City since about the time when I was like, Okay,

426
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,199
Speaker 3: this team is just like not quite right still and

427
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 3: they're kind of sputtering a little bit to the finish.

428
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:30,199
Speaker 3: Outside of that real Madrid performance, they have not played

429
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,879
Speaker 3: their best soccer in the last month. And when you

430
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 3: when you combine it with how much the conversation around

431
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,239
Speaker 3: them has been centered around players asking for rests uh.

432
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 3: Debraun didn't train for over a week, Grealish didn't train

433
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 3: for over a week. After they won the league, they

434
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 3: had some pretty lackluster showings, granted with rotation involved against

435
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 3: Chelsea Brighton and Brentford. All of it starts to get

436
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,639
Speaker 3: to the point where I think City is overvalued because

437
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 3: you know, they had the game against Leeds, remember that

438
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 3: they really struggled to put away and struggled to create

439
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 3: consistent scoring chances in front of goal against a team

440
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:12,880
Speaker 3: we know now awful defensively. Then they have the real

441
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 3: Madrid sharing which was okay, in the first leg and

442
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 3: then of course dominant in the second leg, one of

443
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 3: the most impressive performances I've ever seen. But then there's

444
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 3: the Everton game where they can seed six chances inside

445
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 3: their own penalty area, inside their own six yard box.

446
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 3: Then there's the Chelsea game where Chelsea creates over one

447
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 3: point four XG and should have scored. Then there's the

448
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 3: Brighton game, which was basically an exhibition of back and

449
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 3: forth and wide open but a very even game nevertheless,

450
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 3: And then they go to Brentford and create nothing for

451
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 3: ninety minutes, No holland how hard is it to ramp

452
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 3: it up again? Because I think it is interesting to

453
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 3: think about Like City trying to just go again with

454
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,439
Speaker 3: all of their main core after they haven't really played

455
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 3: a competitive match in a couple of weeks. They've essentially

456
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 3: had since the Cup, fine, since the Cup semi, they've

457
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 3: had two weeks of just kind of nothingness, So I'm

458
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 3: curious to see what it looks like. Of course, like

459
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 3: I still like them overall, but this United defense, being

460
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 3: as leaky as it is, is scary to me. Yep,

461
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 3: That's the only thing keys me off, because I just

462
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 3: look at those numbers and I'm like, what, how have

463
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 3: they not conceded more goals this year? How are they

464
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:16,879
Speaker 3: not getting paceded by City?

465
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 4: You know?

466
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 3: So the Cup final thing definitely plays a factor, but

467
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 3: at three I don't really like the United attack either.

468
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 3: One of the biggest question marks for me is Antony too,

469
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 3: Like he's questionable. I'm gonna wait to see what his

470
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 3: status looks like heading into Saturday, because as much as

471
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 3: I've kind of joked about his poor shot quality and

472
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 3: how he shoots from distance, like, his ball progression has

473
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 3: steadily ticked up and he's really been good on that

474
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:47,959
Speaker 3: other wing. If it is Sancho instead, what does that

475
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 3: look like? If it's veg Horse as a striker, guy

476
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 3: still didn't score a league goal this year? Again striker

477
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 3: for Man United. Like, there's all kinds of how does

478
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 3: United do this?

479
00:22:59,080 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: Yeah?

480
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 3: Like the ass meeting was a stone under you know,

481
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 3: yeah it was you know that that was the famous

482
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 3: Rashford was off side goal and they just decided not

483
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 3: to not to penalize.

484
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 5: Him for it.

485
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, amazing, But I think it's under nothing for me

486
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 3: in this one, and I think, uh, it's it's United

487
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 3: or you know, if you like United. I actually like

488
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 3: left the trophy more in a little bit just because

489
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 3: granted it's like you're back into Hay in a shootout,

490
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 3: but uh, I kind of think that that uh United

491
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 3: is the uh the value side for sure.

492
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 4: Right, And I mean, like the the good news is

493
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:45,199
Speaker 4: is that United, you know, throughout this entire season, like ten,

494
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,239
Speaker 4: Hog has realized that they're not an elite build up

495
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 4: team like as I X teams were in the Art

496
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 4: of Visa, So he's set them up in a way

497
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 4: where they are okay playing in a low block and

498
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 4: being transitional. We've seen that the entire when they've played

499
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 4: against big competition, like that's the that's the case you

500
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,479
Speaker 4: can make for United as opposed to a team like

501
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 4: Liverpool or Arsenal who aren't really used to playing a

502
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 4: low block countering style of play. So United has played it,

503
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 4: they know how to play it. They're very well drilled. Obviously,

504
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 4: Casimiro in the middle pitch has completely changed their entire team.

505
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 4: So they can play a low block and they can

506
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 4: keep City out for an extended period of time. Just

507
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 4: how long is that going to keep up? And can

508
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 4: they be dangerous in those transitional opportunities where other teams

509
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 4: haven't been able to capitalize off those, so we'll see.

510
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 4: But for United, what they need to do is they

511
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 4: need to go back to how they played against Newcastle

512
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,479
Speaker 4: in the League Cup final, which was we're not even

513
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 4: going to build out of the back. Everything's going long

514
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 4: and we're just going to play fifty to fifty balls

515
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 4: and we're going to try to get at you know,

516
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 4: Citi's backline and play in transition like that's what they

517
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 4: have to do to be They're not gonna be able

518
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,440
Speaker 4: to build out against Cities counterpress. It's not going to happen,

519
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 4: and they're going to continue to turn the ball over

520
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 4: like they did against Newcastle in the second meeting.

521
00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 1: It's just that's they have to play direct.

522
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 4: So if they do that, then they defend a wide

523
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 4: area as well and they stay them pact like they

524
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 4: have a chance to keep City out here. But if

525
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 4: they don't do any of that, like it's like you said,

526
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 4: it's very very hard to see how they don't concede

527
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 4: two three four goals, maybe like the first meeting when

528
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 4: they played City at the end he had earlier on

529
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 4: this season when they lost six to three.

530
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 1: So it will be.

531
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 4: Interesting to say the least to see even if City

532
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 4: wins this, to see if they can win the travel

533
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 4: for the first time since United did it in the

534
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 4: nineteen ninety nine season. But that'll put a rap on

535
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 4: the English season until.

536
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 5: August after this FA Cup final.

537
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Germany. The Cup final.

538
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 4: The DFB PO cow RB Leipsig is taking on Frankfurt RBI.

539
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 4: Leipstig on the on the ninety minute line is a

540
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 4: minus one forty eight favorite. Frankfurt is sitting at plus

541
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 4: three fifty the draw sitting at plus three hundred arby

542
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 4: Leipsig is minus three hundred to lift the trophy, Frankfurt

543
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 4: is sitting at two to one.

544
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 1: Passing on this one.

545
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 4: I ran my numbers and it came out pretty close

546
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 4: to what the line is, so I think this is

547
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 4: for me an easy pass.

548
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 5: But you like Harvey Leipsig to left the trophy here.

549
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 1: I do.

550
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 3: I think that Life Stags attack is really cooking at

551
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 3: the moment, and they have been really dynamite. And in

552
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 3: Kunku wins the Golden Boot by the way, which is

553
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 3: kind of remarkable.

554
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: And I know he was out for like two months

555
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 1: this season.

556
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 3: As well, and he's still won the Golden Boot, and

557
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 3: he's coming off the bench like it wasn't one.

558
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 1: Thing, one thing before he gets started.

559
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 4: I totally forgot that he's going to Chelsea this summer

560
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 4: and they're going to somehow try to shoehorn him into

561
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 4: this lineup.

562
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 1: But which is insane to think about.

563
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 3: But sorry, go ahead, Well, I mean I think he

564
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 3: is kind of the striker. Yeah, good, like he's good.

565
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 3: He's done in the Champions League, he's don in the Bundesliga.

566
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:52,479
Speaker 2: Uh.

567
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 3: This gets back to just like my long standing principle

568
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 3: on this Frankfurt team. And I mean I've been fading

569
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 3: them religiously down the stretch here and they've they've really

570
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 3: fallen apart. But anytime you are sitting in the bottom

571
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 3: half of the league in shots per ninety, I'm sorry,

572
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 3: you're just not that good of a team, right, like yep,

573
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,439
Speaker 3: And so you know you're overly reliant on creating a

574
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 3: ton of big scoring chances and that's your entire attack.

575
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 3: And you play a Leipzig team which has had some

576
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 3: trouble with it at times, but they're not nearly as

577
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 3: press heavy as they've been in years past. This is

578
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 3: not you know the marsh Leipzig, and so this is

579
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 3: a defense that when they lose the ball, they're not

580
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,360
Speaker 3: immediately pressing to try to win it back. Rosa has

581
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,199
Speaker 3: made them more passive, and I think it's going to

582
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 3: take away any real opportunities for Frankfurt to get those

583
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 3: big scoring chances that they rely on to create all

584
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 3: of their attack. And so I look, I like Coolhamjani.

585
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 3: I think he's a good player, but the rest of

586
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 3: this team man like, there's just no shots in it.

587
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 3: And you know they're twelfth and shots ninth and big

588
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 3: scoring chances. They're a very good attack. They don't create

589
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 3: an expected threat their team there. Leipzig has generally been

590
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 3: pretty good at building out from the back. They couldn't

591
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 3: do it against City, but generally speaking they're they're fine

592
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 3: at it, and that's one way Frankfort's going to try

593
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 3: to get at them. I don't think it's going to work.

594
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 3: So I think this is a Leipzig spot. I like

595
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 3: them in this matchup. I like them as the much

596
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 3: much better team. I'm laying the three quarters of a

597
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 3: goal on them to win this trophy. I just don't

598
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 3: really see a ton in it there where Frankfort has

599
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 3: an advantage, so give me Leipzig to lift it. Remember

600
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 3: this is the same Frankfurt team that got outplayed and

601
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 3: probably should have lost to Stuttgart in the Semis, and

602
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 3: now that they get in the final, I don't really

603
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 3: like their chances too much. So yeah, give me a Leipzig.

604
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's you know, you've seen it obviously

605
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 4: with Frankfurt when they have to play a good competition.

606
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 4: You know, it comes to mind as the match Agins

607
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 4: Napoli and the Champions League quarterfinals where it was around

608
00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 4: to sixteen excuse me, where you know, against elite build

609
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 4: up teams that can build out of the back in

610
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 4: control possessions, which Leipzig is one of those teams, especially

611
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 4: playing its competition in Germany, that they've just.

612
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 1: Struggled against that.

613
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 5: So I agree with you.

614
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 4: Like for me, the numbers just a tad too high,

615
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 4: so I'm gonna pass on it.

616
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 5: But yeah, it would definitely be Leipzig or nothing.

617
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on. We're going to close out

618
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 4: the season around Europe. The Bundesliga has done, the Premier

619
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 4: League is done, but there is one more match week

620
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 4: left in Spain, Italy and France. Let's start things in Italy.

621
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 4: What's your best bet for the final weekend in Syria, Anthony.

622
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 3: Well, if you follow me in the app, then you

623
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,959
Speaker 3: know that I've been betting this team way more than

624
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 3: I should have in the last two months. But they

625
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 3: have been actually quietly cashing tickets. They beat Milan cash

626
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 3: a team total over. There, they beat or they drew, well,

627
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 3: actually they lost. They covered against Lotzio, of course, in

628
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 3: true Lotzio fashion, but they covered and went team total

629
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 3: over against them, and then against you they hit the

630
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 3: post from cashing a team toll over. I just think

631
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 3: that the market, like I know, they're already relegated, like

632
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 3: the season's over. This is a pretty much a dead

633
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 3: rubber between them and Sournitana. But there's nothing in the

634
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 3: numbers it tells me they're anything but pretty. Even teams

635
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 3: of true talent is better than their numbers. You know

636
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 3: that Sournytana is worse than theirs. You, for some reason,

637
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 3: laid a goal with Rome last week. I did the

638
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 3: worst bet of all time, because they never had any

639
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 3: chance of winning that match by more than a goal.

640
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 1: But and they didn't.

641
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 5: They drew.

642
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 3: But I kind of just don't really see a huge

643
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 3: gap here, and so, you know, last home match of

644
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 3: the season in front of the fans, I'm gonna take

645
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 3: them drawn a better even money Kremen Essay a little

646
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 3: unlucky to get relegated, Like it's a it's kind of

647
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 3: like a kind of like a hodgepodge of teams down

648
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 3: there at the bottom of Cerea in terms of like

649
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 3: true talent, but the underlying process stuff for kremin Essay

650
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 3: has steadily improved this season to the point where like

651
00:30:56,240 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 3: they're actually not a terrible attack and so I I,

652
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 3: you know, against the defense that's been really really really

653
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 3: bad and gotten bailed out most of the season on variants,

654
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 3: I'm going to take come an essay at home.

655
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's a I mean, the thing with

656
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: Salarny Tona.

657
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 4: If you just want to you know, I mean, you

658
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 4: can already book me down for them to be relegated

659
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 4: next season.

660
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 5: Whenever we started our Syria preview.

661
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 3: Blue Idea is just your father.

662
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 4: At this point, he is, he's gonna and mean he's

663
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 4: on loans.

664
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 5: I don't know if he's going to stay and Salerno,

665
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 5: but yeah.

666
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 3: We're sixteen sixteen goals from eight expected this year for him,

667
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 3: and he did that and they kept them up.

668
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 4: Basically, he did that at Rems. He struggled at Vrel

669
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 4: and cost me money there. Then he goes to Salnyitana

670
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 4: and just won't.

671
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 5: Stop scoring against me. Yeah, so he just downs me.

672
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 1: Yeah.

673
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 4: So, I like Lecha and Bologna, both teams of score

674
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 4: no at minus won ten a beach ball. Both teams

675
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 4: have absolutely nothing to play for, and this ledge team

676
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 4: has quietly been catching a lot of Both teams score

677
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 4: no tickets for me because they are a top seven

678
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 4: team in Italy. Like they're a very good pressing team

679
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 4: as well, like they actually have the third most high

680
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 4: turnovers in Italy, very very good structural defense in the

681
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 4: way that they can attack their opponents against the Bolonia

682
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 4: offense that has just drastically overperformed, and Lech is second

683
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 4: to last and expected goals in Italy. They're a very

684
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 4: very bad offense, but good defense. Bad offense against over

685
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 4: performing offense. I have both team to Scornell projected at

686
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 4: minus one sixty, so I think there's some decent value

687
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 4: on this just being an absolute slog and both teams

688
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 4: just trying to get to the beach. All right, let's

689
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 4: move on to Spain. Everything in Spain is wrapped up

690
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 4: in terms of the top four. There's still something to

691
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 4: play for for a conference league. But relegation I tweeted

692
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 4: this out the other day is quite fascinating. Let's set

693
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 4: it up really quick because there are six teams they're

694
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 4: still alive for one relegation spot. Kadiz, Gitafe and Valencia

695
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 4: are all on forty one points, El Maria, Celta, Vigo

696
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 4: are on forty and Valadlide is on thirty nine points.

697
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 4: Valid lad As a minus thirty goal differential, So goal

698
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 4: differential might come into play here. But you like, one

699
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 4: of these teams that are already relegated's maybe we'll get

700
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 4: a little dead cat bounce to finish off the season.

701
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 1: Yeah.

702
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 3: You know, we talk a lot about how like teams

703
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 3: who need to win get kind of must win taxed up,

704
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 3: and you know, there's not a ton of value in

705
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 3: backing them when they're fighting off relegation because they really stink.

706
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 3: And that's true of a lot of the teams in

707
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 3: this race here, Like you look at Cadiz and Bay

708
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 3: the lead in Valencia, even who's actually a good team

709
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 3: that might get relegated, but from a market perspective, it

710
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 3: kind of works in the other way sometimes. So Espanol

711
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 3: has been relegated, they were officially relegated last week, but

712
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 3: this is the final home match of the season and

713
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 3: they're at home against the team that is fighting off relegation.

714
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 3: And it's honestly, if you look at the numbers on

715
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 3: who's playing who, we're probably the second most likely team

716
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 3: to get relegated down there, just because of via the lead,

717
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 3: being at home as a favorite. If they win and

718
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 3: al Maria does not, they would be the next team

719
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 3: likely to be under the cosh there. So they're in

720
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 3: a real dangerous spot here. But there's nothing in the

721
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,399
Speaker 3: numbers that tells me A Marie is a better team

722
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 3: than Espanol. And so for me to get you know, plus,

723
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 3: you can take the pick on plus money or the

724
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 3: plus a quarter goal if we want to let a

725
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 3: little bit of juice, because a draw would actually be

726
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 3: a good result for al Maria. Like, there's just not

727
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 3: anything in these numbers that tell me that they're a

728
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 3: better team this year than Espanol. Al Maria one of

729
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 3: the worst defenses in the league. Statistically only Ljah and

730
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 3: Via the lead are worse and from an XTG difference

731
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 3: per ninety perspective, I mean Espanol has been trending up

732
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 3: in the right direction. They've gotten results like they drew Espono,

733
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 3: they drew Valencia, they drew at Lettie, and they've tried

734
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 3: to stay up here. Like, I don't think they're just

735
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 3: gonna quit now with one match to go, just because

736
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 3: they're out of it. So I'm gonna I'm going to

737
00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 3: back them. And look, you've seen this before. I mean

738
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 3: we just had this conversation in the prem and in

739
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 3: the Bundesliga. Heret to Berlin already relegated, beats Wolfsburg Southampton

740
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 3: already been relegated. For weeks last home match of the season,

741
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 3: they get.

742
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 1: A four to four draw with Liverpool.

743
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 3: Like across the leagues, you'll see these teams just because

744
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 3: nothing to play for, it doesn't mean they're not gonna try,

745
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 3: especially at home. You're more likely to get a punt

746
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 3: effort on the road from these already relegated teams. So

747
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 3: I think Espanol still fighting. I think at home, as

748
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 3: a dog to a'm maria, I'll take them.

749
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like, you know, the only match involving two

750
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 4: of these relegated teams. Valid Lead is hosting Gaitafe. You know,

751
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 4: a draw is good enough for Gatafe to secure safety

752
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 4: here and I like them plus a half at minus

753
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 4: one thirty five. I mean, if you don't know about

754
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 4: Gatafa at this point, like they are the most passive

755
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 4: defensive team really across Europe for years now, Like it's

756
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:53,839
Speaker 4: always some variation of a four to four to two

757
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 4: or a five three two, and just it's defend your

758
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:58,399
Speaker 4: penalty box for your life and just look for.

759
00:35:58,360 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 5: Those transitional opportunities.

760
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 4: And I mean, listen, they've been at the bottom half

761
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 4: of the Laaliga table for years now and they've been

762
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 4: staving off relegation for a long time. But they are

763
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 4: the number one team in Spain and final third to

764
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 4: penalty box entry conversion rate, like they do a lot

765
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 4: of a lot of final third entries. But this valid

766
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 4: Lead team to be essentially an even money favorite or

767
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 4: getting close to that. At home, it's it's must win

768
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,439
Speaker 4: tax It's it's a little bit insane to me because

769
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 4: Katafe has been significantly better in La League and in fact,

770
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 4: the last time these two teams played, albeit it you know,

771
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 4: was back towards the beginning of the season, but it

772
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 4: was Gatafa's best offensive output of the entire season. They

773
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 4: created two point eight expected goals against real valid lead,

774
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 4: and you know, the valid lead offense has been better

775
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 4: and improved over the second half of the season. But

776
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 4: I mean we're talking about, you know, a Gaitafe team

777
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,800
Speaker 4: that has been you know, minus point twenty four actually

778
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 4: differential p ninety against a Helid de Leade team that

779
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,919
Speaker 4: outside of l JA, is the worst team in Spain

780
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 4: at minus point seven to two. So for Valantly to

781
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 4: be the significant of a favor is just so much.

782
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 4: One must win tax and Gatafe is set up perfectly

783
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 4: tactically defensively to keep them out of the penalty area,

784
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 4: defend for their lives, stay off relegation here only needing

785
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 4: a draw. So I like a Tafe plus a half

786
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,839
Speaker 4: a minus one thirty five. All right, let's finish things

787
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:21,760
Speaker 4: out in a League one In France. PSG has won

788
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 4: the title, shocking, I know, but PSG lifts their eleventh

789
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 4: French title. Lens is gonna be playing in the Champions League.

790
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 4: They secured second place in League Gun and Marseille will

791
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,399
Speaker 4: be playing in Champions League qualification to try to get

792
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 4: back into the Champions League. Lil Ren and Monaco are

793
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 4: all still battling for European spots along with the Leone

794
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 4: can can shoehorn their way back into it Europa Conference League,

795
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 4: and relegation has gotten a little interesting too. Augier is

796
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 4: up two points on Nantes who's in seventeenth place, and

797
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 4: A Jacquesio and Troy are tied on twenty three. Now

798
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 4: the seventeenth and eighteenth place is interesting in France because,

799
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 4: like you mentioned earlier, a bunch of episodes ago, but

800
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 4: France is moving to eighteen teams next year, so they're

801
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 4: going two teams have be relegated and the two teams

802
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 4: are gonna play in the relegation playoff. So it's important

803
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 4: for Troy and a jacques Cio. They can potentially stay

804
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 4: off relegation and get into a relegation playoff against a

805
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 4: team from Lidou. So that's how it is in France.

806
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 4: What's your favorite bet this weekend?

807
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 5: Though?

808
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 3: Yea, I'm gonna take Nie at home against Lyon Leon

809
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 3: just classically inflated off of like, oh, we could get

810
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 3: into the Conference League. Nice minus won twenty drawn up

811
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 3: bed at home plus one forty five on the money line.

812
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 3: I'm just kind of surprised by that price, and like,

813
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 3: I think these two teams are roughly even. I would

814
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 3: actually make a case that I think, you know, like

815
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 3: Lacazette's had a great finishing year, but otherwise this like

816
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 3: from a midfield and defensive perspective that Niice is actually

817
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 3: the better team, and so with them as to pick

818
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 3: them at home, I'm gonna take them.

819
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like, I mean, this is just a must

820
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:11,280
Speaker 4: win text to a t Nants versus Agiers and Jers

821
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 4: has already been relegated, their season is over. NNS needs

822
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 4: to win to get out of one of the relegation

823
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 4: playoff spots. So they are sitting in minus three fifty

824
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 4: against Andierras. So I got on jeeris plus one and

825
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 4: a half is an on Heira's team that is just

826
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 4: just Draska underperformed all season long. They have shown some

827
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 4: life though lately, like they haven't quit towards the end

828
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 4: of the season. Here if you look at their results,

829
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 4: like they beat troy La last weekend. The week before

830
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 4: that they drew on the road with Reems, so like

831
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 4: they haven't completely quit on this season. And like we've

832
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 4: already mentioned many times, teams that have already been relegated

833
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 4: still do put effort in there, and Oniras has shown

834
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 4: some effort. They have shown some passion for these last

835
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 4: two matches, and I mean this will kind of just

836
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 4: go down in the history books. But I mean, eighty

837
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 4: goals conceded off a sixty expected that's just kind of

838
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 4: shows you how bad it's been for on Chairs in

839
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 4: terms of goalkeeping and just bad variances throughout the entire season.

840
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 4: Will not, you know, probably shouldn't be in the relegation zone.

841
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 4: You know, they're they're a minus point two eight xg

842
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 4: differential per ninety. But I mean this is just going

843
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,760
Speaker 4: against some must win tax here in France.

844
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 3: So quite fitting that the last domestic play we give

845
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 3: out this season on the podcast is the worst team

846
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 3: in the top five.

847
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: Leagues this year, right Elcha.

848
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 3: I don't know, man, it would be it would be

849
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 3: really close.

850
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, yeah, I was. I was gonna try to.

851
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 4: I was trying to muster up the courage to take

852
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 4: a Jacuxi out this weekend. But even though they're still fighting,

853
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 4: I mean against Marseille, but like even though they're still fighting,

854
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 4: they've just they've quit.

855
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:50,879
Speaker 5: I just I can't put it in.

856
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 3: The points per match. It is andiers point four to

857
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 3: nine match, not exg difference obviously, it's that is actually

858
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 3: Troy mm hmm is the only team that's worse than

859
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 3: minus one actually difference per ninety which is pretty remarkable.

860
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 3: But uh yeah, that's fascinating that.

861
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 5: Yeah.

862
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 3: So yeah, the worst team in the top five leagues

863
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 3: by point.

864
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 4: That'll how That's how we'll end out the regular season

865
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 4: here on Wonder Goal. All right, then I'll do it

866
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,360
Speaker 4: for this episode of Wonder Goal. Thank you, Anthony. We

867
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 4: have what's on the docu for us coming up. We

868
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 4: have one more episode left Conference League final in the

869
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,760
Speaker 4: Champions League Final, and then Wonder Goal will be off

870
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 4: for about a month and then we'll be back for

871
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 4: the Women's World Cup towards the end of July, and

872
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 4: then that will lead us right into a brand new season.

873
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 4: This is the first since the pandemic. This is the

874
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:51,800
Speaker 4: first regular off season in the soccer calendar in about

875
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,439
Speaker 4: three years. So Wonder Goal is going to take about

876
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 4: a month break and then we'll be back in the

877
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,359
Speaker 4: chairs ready for the Women's World Cup, and then we'll

878
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 4: have another wonderful season of European soccer, and then on

879
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 4: the horizon next summer we're back to doing the Euros again.

880
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 4: So that'll do it for Anthony Bundo. I'm BJ Cunningham.

881
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 4: Thank you for listening, and good luck on all your

882
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 4: wagers in the final weekend of the regular season.

883
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

884
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

885
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,800
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler