1 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three hundred 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: and seventeen since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's 3 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 1: main story. President Joe Biden has made it his mission 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: to reopen most schools in the US in his first 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: one days on the job. But teachers, parents and local 6 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: policymakers aren't all on the same page about how to 7 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: do that safely. But first, here's what happened in virus 8 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: News today. New York City will delay opening vaccination megacytes 9 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: at Yankee Stadium and City Field because of vaccine shortages. 10 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: The city will miss its goal of one million doses 11 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: by the end of January. The city received about one 12 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: hundred thousand fewer doses last week than it had expected 13 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: from the US government. Mayor build A. Blasio said the 14 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: city is equipped to vaccinate five hundred thousand people a 15 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 1: week if it gets a supply increase. In the meantime, 16 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: it's rescheduling appointments. US Infectious Disease Chief Anthony Faucci said 17 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 1: he's worried about a push to delay administering the second 18 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 1: dose of COVID nineteen vaccines at a world economic form 19 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 1: panel today, Faucci said it's best to give shots in 20 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:43,399 Speaker 1: line with the schedules outlined in clinical trials. Fiser recommends 21 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 1: a second dose of its vaccine after three weeks, and 22 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: Moderna has a four week interval. Faucci was concerned about 23 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: the efficacy of the vaccine if those intervals were stretched, 24 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: and said that delaying the second shot could also give 25 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: rise to more mutated forms of the virus. Finally, the 26 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:09,240 Speaker 1: UK reported the lowest number of new cases since the 27 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 1: middle of December. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said his government 28 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 1: would start considering which measures could be relaxed at the 29 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 1: beginning of next month. The indicators hint at an impending 30 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: peak in the number of deaths being reported each day, 31 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 1: which last week hit a record. There are still thousands 32 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: of people on mechanical ventilation and UK hospitals are still 33 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:43,359 Speaker 1: under significant strain. And now for today's main story. President 34 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: Joe Biden has vowed to reopen most u S schools 35 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: in his first one hundred days, but that could ignite 36 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: clashes among teachers, their unions, and parents over how to 37 00:02:55,480 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 1: do that safely. Petitions and potential teacher strikes loon even 38 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: while parents watch children struggle online. I spoke to Nick Carrillo, 39 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: who reports that the issue has been one of the 40 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: toughest pandemic challenges for local policymakers. Across the US. School 41 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:26,679 Speaker 1: systems look vastly different right now. Some are entirely online 42 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: and others are back in the classroom. President Biden has 43 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:34,079 Speaker 1: announced his intention to reopen the majority of US schools 44 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: within his first one hundred days. But how is his 45 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: administration planning to achieve this? Yeah, it's a great question, 46 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: and I think it's one that's on every teacher's mind. Um, 47 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 1: this has been a really complicated issue for policymakers and 48 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: education advocates, and it's been very different district to district, 49 00:03:56,160 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 1: county to county. Biden has basically promised to roll out 50 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: federal guidelines to help schools kind of answer the question, 51 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: you know, how quickly can we reopen, when should we 52 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 1: be thinking about reopening, and how safe is it? This 53 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: in practice is going to look like help from the 54 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: federal government in terms of testing resources, It's going to 55 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: look like best practices in terms of social distancing for 56 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 1: the schools, what triggers they should really be using to 57 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 1: kind of decide when to reopen and send teachers or 58 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 1: students back into schools. And they've also asked FEMA to 59 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: release funding to help teachers and schools pay for UH 60 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 1: needed equipment to make it safe to return, like PPE 61 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:48,359 Speaker 1: or testing. And so, what have been some of the 62 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: reactions say by teachers to this announcement. You know, it's 63 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 1: a good question. I would say that the national teachers 64 00:04:56,440 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: Unions are broadly in support of what Biden rolled out 65 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: last week. These were executive orders signed towards the second 66 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: half of last week, and for the most part, they 67 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 1: were pretty vague. I mean, they haven't quite yet explained 68 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: what that guidance will be. It was really just a 69 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: promise that the guidance is coming and that there's going 70 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: to be funds made available to the schools. So there's 71 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 1: nothing too controversial and what we've heard so far from 72 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 1: the Biden administration, but he has pledged to work towards 73 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: reopening a majority of US schools within his first one 74 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:33,239 Speaker 1: hundred days, and depending on how quickly that happens. And 75 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: you know, what the COVID situation looks like in various places, 76 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: it does set the stage for something that could become 77 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 1: potentially complicated we've seen in Chicago teachers unions are pretty 78 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 1: close to striking UM as a result of being asked 79 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 1: to return to schools and what teachers in their unions 80 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: have deemed potentially unsafe. New York has had complications going 81 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 1: back in practice, is a really tricky issue for the 82 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: Biden andrustration to nail down. Let's get into that a 83 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: little bit more specifically. I mean, what really are the 84 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:09,840 Speaker 1: fears that say the teachers unions have identified about whether 85 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 1: or not the classroom is safe to return to. The 86 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: big fear is that teachers are going to be asked 87 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 1: to return to schools and it's going to be unsafe. 88 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 1: There is a lot of research about this, and for 89 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: the most part, we haven't really seen really dangerous situations 90 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: in classrooms or you know, strong outbreaks linked to classrooms. 91 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:36,679 Speaker 1: Of a large majority of cases in schools are usually 92 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: acquired by teachers outside the classroom, and most students are 93 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: less likely to contract severe COVID symptoms. But that being said, 94 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: the vaccine rollout has been complicated and a lot of 95 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: teachers are being asked to go back to school as 96 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: we speak and may not even be able to get 97 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: the first shot UM. It varies state by state kind 98 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: of how high and the pecking order teachers are about 99 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 1: when they're going to get their vaccine. And if you're 100 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 1: an elderly teacher or someone who has a pre existing 101 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: condition or some sort of co morbidity, it makes sense 102 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: that they would be concerned about, you know, even a 103 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: small risk that a teacher might contract the virus. And 104 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: what has been the response to accusations that essentially schools 105 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: have not provided the necessary say testing or tracing that 106 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: simply the extent to which schools um are potential transmission 107 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 1: sites just is unknown, and we don't really have the 108 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: information needed to assess whether or not we can reopen 109 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: schools safely exactly. This is a really big point that 110 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 1: the Biden administration wants to address, is that schools without 111 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: really comprehensive contact tracing and testing systems in place aren't 112 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 1: able to say definitively what the situation with coronavirus is 113 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: inside their building. So in New York they've been testing 114 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: quite religiously. I think last week they did over three 115 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: thousand tests and they didn't find any single case of coronavirus. 116 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: But not every state or district has that kind of capacity. 117 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: In place right now to do so many tests so frequently, 118 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: and it's really not a sure answer as to whether 119 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: or not the schools are safe without that now. As 120 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: part of the announcement regarding his plans for schools, President 121 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: Biden has also, of course, recently announced his pick for 122 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: Secretary of Education, Miguel Cardona. What we know about his 123 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: views regarding either remote or in person learning and the 124 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: reopening of schools. It was speculated that Miguel Cardona was 125 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: picked partly because of the role he played in Connecticut's reopening. 126 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: We don't know that for sure, but in that role, 127 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 1: he was the state's Commissioner of Education before becoming the 128 00:08:56,679 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 1: nominee for Secretary of Education, and he was a strong 129 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: advocate for school reopening along with the state's governor, but 130 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: didn't go so far as to mandate Connecticut schools to reopen. Instead, 131 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: they allowed the districts a bit of flexibility to decide 132 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: for themselves, and of course some did, some didn't. I 133 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: think New Haven Schools just opened last week for the 134 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,839 Speaker 1: first time since the beginning of the pandemic. It's complicated. 135 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 1: I think he did get a little bit of pushback 136 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: from certain districts or teachers who were made to go back. 137 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: But he has done this once before as at a 138 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: state level. And do we know anything about the say, 139 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 1: prioritization of teachers in the vaccine rollout. Is there a 140 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: chance that more teachers will qualify for being say, front 141 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: of the line to receive vaccines. There are states that 142 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: are really pushing teachers quite high on the list in 143 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: order to get them vaccinated as quickly as possible, in 144 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: large part because a lot of state leaders see school 145 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 1: real opening has a huge hinge to the recovery of 146 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 1: their economies. Allowing students to get back into schools with 147 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: some regularity would free up a lot of parents who 148 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 1: otherwise aren't able to go into their work or have 149 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: complicated work schedules. So it does vary state by state. 150 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: In New York, I think teachers are in Group one B, 151 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:24,559 Speaker 1: which is alongside some essential grocery workers and people over 152 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:27,839 Speaker 1: the age of sixty five, and they are actively being 153 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 1: inoculated right now. But it's difficult, you know. I've talked 154 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 1: to a couple of teachers who have have their appointments 155 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: canceled or are unable to get a slot. I spoke 156 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: to one teacher in New Jersey last week who is 157 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 1: being mandated to go back into two in person teaching 158 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 1: and hasn't been able to get a shot. So it's 159 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: not perfect. Teachers are getting vaccinated, I think, as quickly 160 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: as states can vaccinate them, but it's just a huge 161 00:10:55,440 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 1: lotistical challenge for these districts and teachers to get everyone 162 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 1: vaccinated as quickly as possible. Now, the opening of schools 163 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: within his first one days is a very ambitious plan. 164 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: Many think that we are not going to be seeing 165 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: a normal school system or a school year really until 166 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:20,439 Speaker 1: the start of the next school year in the fall. 167 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: I mean, how do you respond to to those who 168 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 1: think that this is really quite a distance off. I 169 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 1: guess it kind of depends what we think normal is. 170 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: I mean, there's nobody really in education that is not 171 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: eager to get students back in schools in some capacity. 172 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 1: You know, Virtual learning has really been quite difficult for 173 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 1: a lot of students, especially UM students of color and 174 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: low income students who are you know, more likely to 175 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: be UM without digital devices or without strong internet access. 176 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 1: There have just been complications left and right. And I 177 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,080 Speaker 1: think there's about a third of students in the US 178 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 1: who since the beginning of the pandemic, have never set 179 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: foot in a classroom, and right now, I think about 180 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: fifty pcent maybe a little bit less, are currently doing 181 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: virtual school. So Biden's goal to get a majority of 182 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 1: schools in person, we're technically not that far off from it. 183 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: I mean, there are a lot of places in the 184 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 1: country where students are doing in person or some sort 185 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:26,200 Speaker 1: of hybrid situation. But presumably if he's talking about opening 186 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: a majority of those that have yet to reopen, that's 187 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: really tough. And there are going to be some schools 188 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:38,439 Speaker 1: with strong social distancing protocols or um maybe a B schedules. 189 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: It's going to be a mishmash of policies and what 190 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: these reopenings look like, and for sure that it's going 191 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: to look very different from you know, what we think 192 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 1: of as normal in person schooling pre pandemic for quite 193 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:57,600 Speaker 1: some time. That was Nick Corrello, and that's it for 194 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 1: our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one 195 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:04,079 Speaker 1: and twenty bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com 196 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,839 Speaker 1: slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave 197 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,599 Speaker 1: us a review at a rating on Apple Podcasts or 198 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:14,319 Speaker 1: Spotify it's the best way to help more listeners find 199 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:18,199 Speaker 1: our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by 200 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: Tophor foreheads Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main 201 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 1: story was reported by Nick Corrello. Original music by Leo Sedrin. 202 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi 203 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.